Opinion Poll by ComRes for Brexit Express, 9 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 40.0% 26.7% 25.5–28.0% 25.2–28.4% 24.9–28.7% 24.3–29.3%
Brexit Party 0.0% 19.8% 18.7–21.0% 18.4–21.3% 18.1–21.6% 17.6–22.2%
Conservative Party 42.4% 18.8% 17.7–20.0% 17.5–20.3% 17.2–20.6% 16.7–21.2%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 14.8% 13.9–15.9% 13.6–16.2% 13.4–16.5% 12.9–17.0%
Change UK 0.0% 6.9% 6.2–7.7% 6.1–7.9% 5.9–8.1% 5.6–8.5%
Green Party 1.6% 5.0% 4.4–5.6% 4.2–5.8% 4.1–6.0% 3.8–6.3%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 2.9% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.6% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 2.9% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.6% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 262 227 205–248 200–257 194–262 186–271
Brexit Party 0 201 177–223 168–230 160–236 151–242
Conservative Party 317 67 50–90 46–95 42–97 35–108
Liberal Democrats 12 74 69–84 68–86 67–87 64–91
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 2 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Scottish National Party 35 51 50–53 50–53 49–53 42–53
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 7 4–9 4–10 4–13 4–14

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.8%  
185 0.2% 99.8%  
186 0.3% 99.6%  
187 0.3% 99.3%  
188 0.6% 99.0%  
189 0.1% 98%  
190 0.3% 98%  
191 0.2% 98%  
192 0.1% 98%  
193 0% 98%  
194 0.2% 98%  
195 0.7% 97%  
196 0.2% 97%  
197 0.2% 97%  
198 0.6% 96%  
199 0.5% 96%  
200 0.3% 95%  
201 0.8% 95%  
202 0.6% 94%  
203 0.8% 93%  
204 0.3% 93%  
205 4% 92%  
206 2% 88%  
207 0.9% 87%  
208 5% 86%  
209 0.3% 81%  
210 3% 81%  
211 3% 78%  
212 0.2% 75%  
213 2% 75%  
214 0.5% 72%  
215 0.8% 72%  
216 2% 71%  
217 3% 69%  
218 0.7% 66%  
219 5% 66%  
220 2% 60%  
221 2% 58%  
222 2% 55%  
223 0.5% 54%  
224 0.4% 53%  
225 0.6% 53%  
226 0.2% 52%  
227 3% 52% Median
228 4% 49%  
229 7% 44%  
230 0.9% 38%  
231 3% 37%  
232 4% 34%  
233 2% 29%  
234 0.8% 27%  
235 0.4% 26%  
236 0.7% 26%  
237 2% 25%  
238 2% 23%  
239 0% 21%  
240 0.8% 21%  
241 1.0% 20%  
242 2% 19%  
243 0.5% 17%  
244 2% 17%  
245 3% 15%  
246 0.4% 12%  
247 1.2% 12%  
248 1.1% 11%  
249 0.1% 9%  
250 1.3% 9%  
251 0.4% 8%  
252 0.2% 8%  
253 0.3% 7%  
254 0.8% 7%  
255 0.5% 6%  
256 0.3% 6%  
257 0.9% 5%  
258 0.9% 5%  
259 0.2% 4%  
260 0.4% 4%  
261 0.1% 3%  
262 0.7% 3% Last Result
263 0.1% 2%  
264 0.3% 2%  
265 0.1% 2%  
266 0.4% 2%  
267 0% 1.5%  
268 0.1% 1.4%  
269 0.3% 1.4%  
270 0.5% 1.0%  
271 0.1% 0.5%  
272 0% 0.5%  
273 0.1% 0.4%  
274 0% 0.4%  
275 0.1% 0.3%  
276 0% 0.3%  
277 0% 0.3%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0.1% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0.1% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.8%  
146 0% 99.8%  
147 0% 99.8%  
148 0% 99.8%  
149 0.1% 99.7%  
150 0% 99.6%  
151 0.2% 99.5%  
152 0% 99.4%  
153 0.1% 99.3%  
154 0.2% 99.2%  
155 0.2% 99.1%  
156 0% 98.8%  
157 0.2% 98.8%  
158 0% 98.6%  
159 0.3% 98.6%  
160 1.2% 98%  
161 0.2% 97%  
162 0.5% 97%  
163 0.1% 96%  
164 0.3% 96%  
165 0.3% 96%  
166 0.5% 96%  
167 0% 95%  
168 0.2% 95%  
169 1.1% 95%  
170 0.3% 94%  
171 0.2% 93%  
172 0.6% 93%  
173 0.1% 93%  
174 0.7% 93%  
175 0.9% 92%  
176 0.4% 91%  
177 1.2% 91%  
178 2% 89%  
179 0.6% 87%  
180 1.2% 87%  
181 0.4% 86%  
182 0.7% 85%  
183 3% 84%  
184 3% 81%  
185 0.3% 79%  
186 0.3% 78%  
187 1.3% 78%  
188 0.7% 77%  
189 0.3% 76%  
190 0.1% 76%  
191 0.9% 76%  
192 2% 75%  
193 1.2% 73%  
194 2% 72%  
195 3% 70%  
196 0.9% 67%  
197 1.2% 66%  
198 3% 65%  
199 4% 61%  
200 2% 57%  
201 7% 56% Median
202 1.4% 49%  
203 0.6% 47%  
204 6% 47%  
205 1.0% 40%  
206 0.5% 39%  
207 1.4% 39%  
208 0.5% 37%  
209 1.0% 37%  
210 2% 36%  
211 1.0% 34%  
212 0.7% 33%  
213 0.2% 33%  
214 4% 33%  
215 2% 28%  
216 2% 27%  
217 0.5% 25%  
218 2% 25%  
219 0.7% 23%  
220 4% 22%  
221 0.6% 18%  
222 6% 17%  
223 1.4% 11%  
224 0.9% 10%  
225 0.3% 9%  
226 0.2% 8%  
227 0.2% 8%  
228 1.2% 8%  
229 0.9% 7%  
230 2% 6%  
231 0.3% 4%  
232 0.2% 4%  
233 0.5% 3%  
234 0.1% 3%  
235 0.1% 3%  
236 0.4% 3%  
237 0% 2%  
238 0.4% 2%  
239 0.2% 2%  
240 0.8% 2%  
241 0.4% 0.9%  
242 0.1% 0.5%  
243 0.1% 0.4%  
244 0.1% 0.3%  
245 0.2% 0.3%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.8%  
35 0.2% 99.7%  
36 0% 99.5%  
37 0.1% 99.4%  
38 0.2% 99.3%  
39 0.5% 99.2%  
40 0.1% 98.6%  
41 0.8% 98%  
42 0.2% 98%  
43 0.7% 97%  
44 0.7% 97%  
45 0.9% 96%  
46 0.3% 95%  
47 2% 95%  
48 1.4% 93%  
49 2% 92%  
50 2% 90%  
51 2% 88%  
52 0.3% 86%  
53 5% 86%  
54 0.9% 81%  
55 2% 80%  
56 3% 77%  
57 0.9% 75%  
58 2% 74%  
59 1.3% 71%  
60 1.0% 70%  
61 2% 69%  
62 3% 67%  
63 2% 64%  
64 2% 62%  
65 4% 59%  
66 5% 55%  
67 1.2% 50% Median
68 9% 49%  
69 1.4% 40%  
70 1.4% 38%  
71 0.3% 37%  
72 1.4% 37%  
73 0.5% 35%  
74 1.0% 35%  
75 5% 34%  
76 3% 29%  
77 2% 26%  
78 0.6% 24%  
79 1.0% 23%  
80 0.5% 23%  
81 0.6% 22%  
82 3% 21%  
83 1.2% 18%  
84 0.7% 17%  
85 0.2% 17%  
86 1.3% 16%  
87 0.4% 15%  
88 0.6% 15%  
89 2% 14%  
90 2% 12%  
91 4% 10%  
92 0.5% 6%  
93 0.4% 6%  
94 0.2% 5%  
95 2% 5%  
96 0.4% 3%  
97 0.4% 3%  
98 0.1% 2%  
99 0.3% 2%  
100 0.3% 2%  
101 0.1% 2%  
102 0.2% 2%  
103 0.7% 1.4%  
104 0% 0.8%  
105 0% 0.7%  
106 0% 0.7%  
107 0.1% 0.6%  
108 0.1% 0.6%  
109 0.1% 0.4%  
110 0% 0.4%  
111 0% 0.3%  
112 0% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.3%  
115 0% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.2%  
117 0% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 0.1% 99.5%  
66 0.3% 99.3%  
67 2% 99.1%  
68 4% 97%  
69 3% 92%  
70 3% 89%  
71 7% 86%  
72 17% 79%  
73 10% 62%  
74 7% 51% Median
75 6% 44%  
76 6% 39%  
77 4% 32%  
78 6% 28%  
79 3% 22%  
80 1.4% 19%  
81 4% 18%  
82 1.0% 14%  
83 2% 13%  
84 0.9% 11%  
85 4% 10%  
86 2% 6%  
87 2% 4%  
88 0.9% 2%  
89 0.1% 1.1%  
90 0.5% 1.0%  
91 0.2% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 82% 100% Median
3 13% 18%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9% Last Result
36 0% 99.8%  
37 0.2% 99.8%  
38 0% 99.6%  
39 0% 99.6%  
40 0% 99.6%  
41 0% 99.5%  
42 0.1% 99.5%  
43 0% 99.4%  
44 0% 99.4%  
45 0.2% 99.4%  
46 0.1% 99.2%  
47 0.2% 99.1%  
48 0.6% 98.9%  
49 3% 98%  
50 8% 95%  
51 46% 88% Median
52 6% 42%  
53 36% 36%  
54 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 33% 99.8% Last Result
5 7% 66%  
6 8% 59%  
7 5% 51% Median
8 30% 46%  
9 6% 16%  
10 5% 10%  
11 1.0% 4%  
12 0.7% 3%  
13 1.5% 3%  
14 1.1% 1.3%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 359 98% 334–385 331–389 326–396 317–408
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 352 94% 329–378 324–385 318–390 308–404
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 307 17% 283–335 280–339 273–346 265–357
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 301 11% 278–328 273–333 266–338 256–352
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 301 11% 278–328 273–333 266–338 256–352
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 284 1.5% 261–306 259–313 252–319 243–327
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 278 0.3% 256–300 251–308 246–315 237–323
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 232 0% 210–255 207–263 200–267 192–277
Labour Party – Change UK 262 227 0% 205–248 200–257 194–262 186–271
Labour Party 262 227 0% 205–248 200–257 194–262 186–271
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 140 0% 128–162 123–166 120–170 112–179
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 140 0% 128–162 123–166 120–170 112–179
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 126 0% 107–150 103–152 98–157 93–166
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 118 0% 101–143 97–146 93–149 86–159
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 76 0% 56–97 51–101 47–105 42–116
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 67 0% 50–90 46–95 42–97 35–108
Conservative Party 317 67 0% 50–90 46–95 42–97 35–108

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9% Last Result
314 0.2% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.7%  
316 0% 99.7%  
317 0.2% 99.7%  
318 0.5% 99.4%  
319 0.3% 98.9%  
320 0.3% 98.6%  
321 0% 98%  
322 0.2% 98%  
323 0.2% 98%  
324 0.3% 98%  
325 0% 98%  
326 0.2% 98% Majority
327 0.3% 97%  
328 0.5% 97%  
329 0.4% 97%  
330 0.4% 96%  
331 0.9% 96%  
332 0.7% 95%  
333 0.5% 94%  
334 4% 94%  
335 0.5% 90%  
336 1.0% 89%  
337 0.4% 88%  
338 0.5% 88%  
339 0.3% 87%  
340 4% 87%  
341 5% 83%  
342 0.9% 78%  
343 2% 77%  
344 0.2% 76%  
345 1.2% 75%  
346 2% 74%  
347 1.2% 73%  
348 0.2% 71%  
349 2% 71%  
350 6% 69%  
351 0.9% 63%  
352 1.4% 62%  
353 3% 61%  
354 0.3% 58%  
355 0.5% 58%  
356 2% 58%  
357 1.2% 55%  
358 3% 54%  
359 2% 51% Median
360 9% 50%  
361 0.2% 41%  
362 3% 40%  
363 0.5% 38%  
364 3% 37%  
365 1.3% 34%  
366 0.5% 33%  
367 0.8% 32%  
368 2% 31%  
369 1.1% 30%  
370 0.3% 29%  
371 1.1% 28%  
372 3% 27%  
373 1.0% 24%  
374 2% 23%  
375 2% 21%  
376 1.3% 20%  
377 0.4% 18%  
378 2% 18%  
379 0.5% 16%  
380 2% 15%  
381 1.0% 14%  
382 1.4% 13%  
383 0.5% 11%  
384 0.3% 11%  
385 0.8% 10%  
386 0.5% 10%  
387 0.5% 9%  
388 0.6% 9%  
389 3% 8%  
390 0.6% 5%  
391 0.6% 4%  
392 0.1% 4%  
393 0.1% 4%  
394 0.7% 3%  
395 0.2% 3%  
396 0.1% 3%  
397 0.1% 2%  
398 0.2% 2%  
399 0.4% 2%  
400 0.1% 2%  
401 0.1% 2%  
402 0.5% 2%  
403 0% 1.0%  
404 0.2% 1.0%  
405 0.2% 0.8%  
406 0% 0.6%  
407 0% 0.6%  
408 0.1% 0.6%  
409 0% 0.5%  
410 0% 0.4%  
411 0.1% 0.4%  
412 0% 0.4%  
413 0.1% 0.3%  
414 0.1% 0.3%  
415 0% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.2%  
418 0.1% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0.1% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.4% 99.8%  
309 0.2% 99.4% Last Result
310 0.2% 99.2%  
311 0.2% 99.0%  
312 0.3% 98.8%  
313 0.1% 98%  
314 0.3% 98%  
315 0.1% 98%  
316 0.2% 98%  
317 0% 98%  
318 0.3% 98%  
319 0.3% 97%  
320 0.1% 97%  
321 0.3% 97%  
322 0.6% 97%  
323 0.5% 96%  
324 1.2% 96%  
325 0.6% 94%  
326 0.2% 94% Majority
327 0.3% 94%  
328 0.3% 93%  
329 4% 93%  
330 0.8% 89%  
331 5% 88%  
332 3% 83%  
333 0.3% 81%  
334 0.4% 80%  
335 1.2% 80%  
336 2% 79%  
337 1.2% 76%  
338 2% 75%  
339 0.3% 73%  
340 1.2% 73%  
341 0.5% 71%  
342 1.0% 71%  
343 1.5% 70%  
344 5% 68%  
345 3% 64%  
346 1.1% 60%  
347 0.5% 59%  
348 1.0% 59%  
349 3% 58%  
350 1.2% 55%  
351 0.8% 54%  
352 8% 53% Median
353 0.5% 45%  
354 2% 45%  
355 1.0% 43%  
356 5% 42%  
357 0.8% 37%  
358 3% 36%  
359 0.9% 33%  
360 0.6% 32%  
361 0.6% 32%  
362 1.3% 31%  
363 2% 30%  
364 0.3% 28%  
365 1.2% 27%  
366 0.6% 26%  
367 2% 26%  
368 3% 23%  
369 1.2% 20%  
370 1.2% 19%  
371 0.5% 18%  
372 2% 17%  
373 0.5% 15%  
374 3% 14%  
375 0.3% 12%  
376 0.5% 12%  
377 0.5% 11%  
378 0.5% 11%  
379 0.1% 10%  
380 0.8% 10%  
381 1.2% 9%  
382 2% 8%  
383 0.4% 6%  
384 0.1% 6%  
385 1.4% 6%  
386 0.5% 4%  
387 0.5% 4%  
388 0% 3%  
389 0.1% 3%  
390 0.8% 3%  
391 0.6% 2%  
392 0.1% 2%  
393 0% 2%  
394 0.1% 2%  
395 0.1% 2%  
396 0.2% 2%  
397 0.1% 1.4%  
398 0.5% 1.3%  
399 0% 0.8%  
400 0.1% 0.8%  
401 0.2% 0.7%  
402 0% 0.6%  
403 0% 0.6%  
404 0.1% 0.5%  
405 0.1% 0.4%  
406 0% 0.3%  
407 0% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.3%  
409 0% 0.3%  
410 0.1% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0.1% 0.1%  
418 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.7%  
265 0.2% 99.6%  
266 0.4% 99.4%  
267 0.5% 99.0%  
268 0% 98%  
269 0.1% 98%  
270 0.1% 98%  
271 0.2% 98%  
272 0.3% 98%  
273 0.3% 98%  
274 0.2% 97%  
275 0.2% 97%  
276 0.3% 97%  
277 0.4% 97%  
278 0.9% 96% Last Result
279 0.2% 95%  
280 0.5% 95%  
281 0.5% 95%  
282 0.8% 94%  
283 5% 94%  
284 0.4% 89%  
285 0.5% 88%  
286 0.3% 88%  
287 2% 87%  
288 2% 85%  
289 0.4% 83%  
290 5% 82%  
291 0.8% 78%  
292 2% 77%  
293 0.6% 75%  
294 1.0% 74%  
295 1.3% 73%  
296 0.3% 72%  
297 5% 71%  
298 2% 66%  
299 1.5% 64%  
300 3% 63%  
301 1.1% 60%  
302 0.5% 59%  
303 0.6% 58%  
304 1.1% 58%  
305 3% 57%  
306 0.2% 54%  
307 4% 53%  
308 1.4% 49% Median
309 9% 48%  
310 0.2% 39%  
311 0.5% 38%  
312 0.9% 38%  
313 1.3% 37%  
314 3% 36%  
315 1.2% 33%  
316 2% 32%  
317 0.7% 30%  
318 0.5% 29%  
319 0.3% 28%  
320 1.1% 28%  
321 4% 27%  
322 2% 23%  
323 1.1% 21%  
324 0.4% 20%  
325 3% 20%  
326 0.7% 17% Majority
327 0.9% 16%  
328 0.7% 16%  
329 1.5% 15%  
330 0.6% 13%  
331 2% 13%  
332 0.3% 11%  
333 0.4% 11%  
334 0.2% 10%  
335 0.3% 10%  
336 1.2% 10%  
337 1.3% 9%  
338 0.9% 7%  
339 2% 7%  
340 0.7% 4%  
341 0.8% 4%  
342 0.1% 3%  
343 0.1% 3%  
344 0.2% 3%  
345 0% 3%  
346 0.4% 3%  
347 0.2% 2%  
348 0.2% 2%  
349 0.5% 2%  
350 0.1% 1.2%  
351 0.1% 1.1%  
352 0.1% 1.1%  
353 0.2% 1.0%  
354 0% 0.8%  
355 0.1% 0.8%  
356 0.1% 0.7%  
357 0% 0.5%  
358 0% 0.5%  
359 0% 0.5%  
360 0.1% 0.4%  
361 0% 0.4%  
362 0% 0.4%  
363 0.1% 0.4%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0.1% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.3% 99.9%  
256 0.2% 99.6%  
257 0% 99.4%  
258 0.3% 99.3%  
259 0.3% 99.0%  
260 0.1% 98.8%  
261 0.2% 98.6%  
262 0.1% 98%  
263 0.3% 98%  
264 0.1% 98%  
265 0.4% 98%  
266 0.2% 98%  
267 0.1% 97%  
268 0.2% 97%  
269 0.3% 97%  
270 0.6% 97%  
271 1.0% 96%  
272 0.2% 95%  
273 0.5% 95%  
274 0.7% 94% Last Result
275 0.3% 94%  
276 0.3% 93%  
277 0.4% 93%  
278 4% 93%  
279 3% 89%  
280 5% 86%  
281 0.4% 81%  
282 0.4% 80%  
283 0.4% 80%  
284 3% 80%  
285 1.3% 76%  
286 1.0% 75%  
287 2% 74%  
288 0.1% 72%  
289 0.8% 72%  
290 2% 71%  
291 4% 69%  
292 2% 65%  
293 0.8% 63%  
294 2% 62%  
295 1.3% 61%  
296 2% 60%  
297 2% 58%  
298 2% 56%  
299 0.6% 54%  
300 0.6% 54%  
301 8% 53% Median
302 0.1% 45%  
303 4% 45%  
304 1.0% 41%  
305 3% 40%  
306 2% 37%  
307 0.5% 34%  
308 2% 34%  
309 2% 32%  
310 2% 31%  
311 0.3% 29%  
312 0.9% 28%  
313 0.3% 27%  
314 2% 27%  
315 0.4% 25%  
316 1.3% 25%  
317 5% 23%  
318 0.6% 19%  
319 0.7% 18%  
320 0.4% 17%  
321 3% 17%  
322 0.9% 14%  
323 2% 13%  
324 0.7% 12%  
325 0.6% 11%  
326 0.1% 11% Majority
327 0.3% 10%  
328 0.2% 10%  
329 0.3% 10%  
330 0.7% 10%  
331 0.8% 9%  
332 2% 8%  
333 1.1% 6%  
334 0.3% 5%  
335 0.3% 4%  
336 0.7% 4%  
337 0.6% 3%  
338 0.4% 3%  
339 0.2% 2%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 0.1% 2%  
342 0.1% 2%  
343 0.1% 2%  
344 0.1% 2%  
345 0.7% 2%  
346 0.1% 0.9%  
347 0% 0.9%  
348 0% 0.9%  
349 0.1% 0.8%  
350 0% 0.8%  
351 0.1% 0.7%  
352 0.2% 0.6%  
353 0.1% 0.4%  
354 0% 0.4%  
355 0% 0.4%  
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0.1% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.3% 99.9%  
256 0.2% 99.6%  
257 0% 99.4%  
258 0.3% 99.3%  
259 0.3% 99.0%  
260 0.1% 98.8%  
261 0.2% 98.6%  
262 0.1% 98%  
263 0.3% 98%  
264 0.1% 98%  
265 0.4% 98%  
266 0.2% 98%  
267 0.1% 97%  
268 0.2% 97%  
269 0.3% 97%  
270 0.6% 97%  
271 1.0% 96%  
272 0.2% 95%  
273 0.5% 95%  
274 0.7% 94% Last Result
275 0.3% 94%  
276 0.3% 93%  
277 0.4% 93%  
278 4% 93%  
279 3% 89%  
280 5% 86%  
281 0.4% 81%  
282 0.4% 80%  
283 0.4% 80%  
284 3% 80%  
285 1.3% 76%  
286 1.0% 75%  
287 2% 74%  
288 0.1% 72%  
289 0.8% 72%  
290 2% 71%  
291 4% 69%  
292 2% 65%  
293 0.8% 63%  
294 2% 62%  
295 1.3% 61%  
296 2% 60%  
297 2% 58%  
298 2% 56%  
299 0.6% 54%  
300 0.6% 54%  
301 8% 53% Median
302 0.1% 45%  
303 4% 45%  
304 1.0% 41%  
305 3% 40%  
306 2% 37%  
307 0.5% 34%  
308 2% 34%  
309 2% 32%  
310 2% 31%  
311 0.3% 29%  
312 0.9% 28%  
313 0.3% 27%  
314 2% 27%  
315 0.4% 25%  
316 1.3% 25%  
317 5% 23%  
318 0.6% 19%  
319 0.7% 18%  
320 0.4% 17%  
321 3% 17%  
322 0.9% 14%  
323 2% 13%  
324 0.7% 12%  
325 0.6% 11%  
326 0.1% 11% Majority
327 0.3% 10%  
328 0.2% 10%  
329 0.3% 10%  
330 0.7% 10%  
331 0.8% 9%  
332 2% 8%  
333 1.1% 6%  
334 0.3% 5%  
335 0.3% 4%  
336 0.7% 4%  
337 0.6% 3%  
338 0.4% 3%  
339 0.2% 2%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 0.1% 2%  
342 0.1% 2%  
343 0.1% 2%  
344 0.1% 2%  
345 0.7% 2%  
346 0.1% 0.9%  
347 0% 0.9%  
348 0% 0.9%  
349 0.1% 0.8%  
350 0% 0.8%  
351 0.1% 0.7%  
352 0.2% 0.6%  
353 0.1% 0.4%  
354 0% 0.4%  
355 0% 0.4%  
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0.1% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0% 100%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.8%  
243 0.3% 99.8%  
244 0.3% 99.5%  
245 0.2% 99.2%  
246 0.1% 98.9%  
247 0.1% 98.8%  
248 0.1% 98.7%  
249 0.1% 98.6%  
250 0.5% 98.5%  
251 0.1% 98%  
252 0.5% 98%  
253 0.2% 97%  
254 0.3% 97%  
255 0.4% 97%  
256 0.2% 97%  
257 0.6% 96%  
258 0.6% 96%  
259 0.6% 95%  
260 0.3% 95%  
261 5% 94%  
262 1.2% 90%  
263 0.8% 88%  
264 0.4% 88%  
265 1.2% 87%  
266 0.2% 86%  
267 1.2% 86%  
268 2% 85%  
269 8% 83%  
270 0.3% 75%  
271 2% 75%  
272 2% 73%  
273 0.5% 71%  
274 1.2% 70%  
275 2% 69%  
276 3% 67%  
277 0.8% 65%  
278 4% 64%  
279 2% 60%  
280 2% 58%  
281 2% 56%  
282 1.0% 55%  
283 3% 53%  
284 3% 51%  
285 0.6% 48% Median
286 4% 48%  
287 3% 44%  
288 9% 41%  
289 1.5% 32%  
290 0.7% 30%  
291 2% 29%  
292 1.2% 27%  
293 0.8% 26%  
294 0.2% 25%  
295 1.3% 25%  
296 0.7% 24%  
297 1.1% 23%  
298 0.5% 22%  
299 2% 22%  
300 0.4% 19%  
301 2% 19% Last Result
302 3% 17%  
303 1.2% 14%  
304 0.8% 13%  
305 2% 12%  
306 0.5% 10%  
307 0.8% 10%  
308 0.2% 9%  
309 2% 9%  
310 0.5% 7%  
311 0.3% 6%  
312 0.3% 6%  
313 0.7% 6%  
314 0.4% 5%  
315 0.6% 5%  
316 0.7% 4%  
317 0.1% 3%  
318 0.3% 3%  
319 0.6% 3%  
320 0.2% 2%  
321 0.1% 2%  
322 0.2% 2%  
323 0.3% 2%  
324 0.1% 2%  
325 0.1% 2%  
326 0.2% 1.5% Majority
327 0.8% 1.3%  
328 0% 0.5%  
329 0% 0.4%  
330 0% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0% 0.3%  
334 0% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0.1% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0.2% 99.8%  
237 0.3% 99.6%  
238 0.3% 99.3%  
239 0.4% 99.0%  
240 0.1% 98.7%  
241 0.4% 98.6%  
242 0.1% 98%  
243 0.2% 98%  
244 0.3% 98%  
245 0.1% 98%  
246 0.4% 98%  
247 0.2% 97%  
248 0.3% 97%  
249 0.6% 97%  
250 0.4% 96%  
251 0.7% 96%  
252 0.5% 95%  
253 0.6% 94%  
254 0.5% 94%  
255 0.3% 93%  
256 5% 93%  
257 1.4% 88%  
258 0.6% 87%  
259 5% 86%  
260 0.6% 81%  
261 1.4% 81%  
262 0.8% 79%  
263 2% 79%  
264 2% 77%  
265 3% 75%  
266 0.2% 72%  
267 2% 72%  
268 1.2% 70%  
269 2% 69%  
270 2% 67%  
271 2% 65%  
272 8% 63%  
273 0.6% 56%  
274 0.7% 55%  
275 1.2% 54%  
276 0.6% 53%  
277 0.5% 52%  
278 3% 52% Median
279 2% 49%  
280 9% 47%  
281 0.4% 38%  
282 2% 37%  
283 4% 35%  
284 3% 31%  
285 1.3% 28%  
286 1.0% 27%  
287 0.6% 26%  
288 0.9% 26%  
289 0.8% 25%  
290 1.0% 24%  
291 3% 23%  
292 0.5% 20%  
293 2% 19%  
294 0.8% 18%  
295 2% 17%  
296 0.8% 15%  
297 2% 14% Last Result
298 0.8% 12%  
299 1.0% 11%  
300 0.7% 10%  
301 2% 10%  
302 0.3% 8%  
303 0.8% 7%  
304 0.2% 7%  
305 0.3% 6%  
306 0.6% 6%  
307 0.5% 6%  
308 0.8% 5%  
309 0.7% 4%  
310 0.2% 4%  
311 0.2% 3%  
312 0.1% 3%  
313 0% 3%  
314 0.1% 3%  
315 0.9% 3%  
316 0.2% 2%  
317 0% 2%  
318 0.2% 2%  
319 0.4% 2%  
320 0.1% 1.2%  
321 0% 1.1%  
322 0.2% 1.1%  
323 0.5% 0.9%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0% 0.3%  
326 0% 0.3% Majority
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0.1% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0.1% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
188 0% 100%  
189 0.1% 99.9%  
190 0.1% 99.9%  
191 0.1% 99.8%  
192 0.3% 99.7%  
193 0.2% 99.4%  
194 0.3% 99.2%  
195 0.1% 98.9%  
196 0% 98.8%  
197 0.3% 98.7%  
198 0.1% 98%  
199 0.7% 98%  
200 0.2% 98%  
201 0.3% 97%  
202 0.1% 97%  
203 0.1% 97%  
204 0.4% 97%  
205 0.3% 97%  
206 0.8% 96%  
207 0.6% 95%  
208 0.2% 95%  
209 0.4% 95%  
210 5% 94%  
211 1.1% 89%  
212 0.5% 88%  
213 0.2% 87%  
214 2% 87%  
215 1.3% 85%  
216 0.3% 84%  
217 3% 84%  
218 6% 81%  
219 2% 75%  
220 1.0% 73%  
221 1.0% 72%  
222 0.5% 71%  
223 2% 70%  
224 2% 68%  
225 5% 66%  
226 1.3% 61%  
227 2% 60%  
228 1.1% 57%  
229 0.2% 56%  
230 2% 56%  
231 3% 54%  
232 2% 51%  
233 0.6% 49%  
234 0.6% 48% Median
235 3% 47%  
236 6% 45%  
237 8% 39%  
238 1.0% 30%  
239 1.1% 29%  
240 2% 28%  
241 0.5% 27%  
242 1.4% 26%  
243 0.2% 25%  
244 2% 25%  
245 1.2% 23%  
246 2% 22%  
247 0.1% 20%  
248 0.3% 20%  
249 2% 20%  
250 2% 18%  
251 2% 16%  
252 3% 14%  
253 0.4% 11%  
254 0.1% 10%  
255 0.6% 10%  
256 0.3% 10%  
257 0.7% 9%  
258 2% 9%  
259 0.4% 7%  
260 0.2% 6%  
261 0.4% 6%  
262 0.6% 6%  
263 0.3% 5%  
264 0.3% 5%  
265 1.0% 5%  
266 1.0% 4% Last Result
267 0.1% 3%  
268 0.1% 2%  
269 0.1% 2%  
270 0% 2%  
271 0% 2%  
272 0.3% 2%  
273 0.3% 2%  
274 0.8% 1.4%  
275 0% 0.6%  
276 0% 0.6%  
277 0.1% 0.5%  
278 0% 0.4%  
279 0% 0.4%  
280 0% 0.4%  
281 0% 0.4%  
282 0% 0.4%  
283 0.1% 0.3%  
284 0.1% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0.1% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.8%  
185 0.2% 99.8%  
186 0.3% 99.6%  
187 0.3% 99.3%  
188 0.6% 99.0%  
189 0.1% 98%  
190 0.3% 98%  
191 0.2% 98%  
192 0.1% 98%  
193 0% 98%  
194 0.2% 98%  
195 0.7% 97%  
196 0.2% 97%  
197 0.2% 97%  
198 0.6% 96%  
199 0.5% 96%  
200 0.3% 95%  
201 0.8% 95%  
202 0.6% 94%  
203 0.8% 93%  
204 0.3% 93%  
205 4% 92%  
206 2% 88%  
207 0.9% 87%  
208 5% 86%  
209 0.3% 81%  
210 3% 81%  
211 3% 78%  
212 0.2% 75%  
213 2% 75%  
214 0.5% 72%  
215 0.8% 72%  
216 2% 71%  
217 3% 69%  
218 0.7% 66%  
219 5% 66%  
220 2% 60%  
221 2% 58%  
222 2% 55%  
223 0.5% 54%  
224 0.4% 53%  
225 0.6% 53%  
226 0.2% 52%  
227 3% 52% Median
228 4% 49%  
229 7% 44%  
230 0.9% 38%  
231 3% 37%  
232 4% 34%  
233 2% 29%  
234 0.8% 27%  
235 0.4% 26%  
236 0.7% 26%  
237 2% 25%  
238 2% 23%  
239 0% 21%  
240 0.8% 21%  
241 1.0% 20%  
242 2% 19%  
243 0.5% 17%  
244 2% 17%  
245 3% 15%  
246 0.4% 12%  
247 1.2% 12%  
248 1.1% 11%  
249 0.1% 9%  
250 1.3% 9%  
251 0.4% 8%  
252 0.2% 8%  
253 0.3% 7%  
254 0.8% 7%  
255 0.5% 6%  
256 0.3% 6%  
257 0.9% 5%  
258 0.9% 5%  
259 0.2% 4%  
260 0.4% 4%  
261 0.1% 3%  
262 0.7% 3% Last Result
263 0.1% 2%  
264 0.3% 2%  
265 0.1% 2%  
266 0.4% 2%  
267 0% 1.5%  
268 0.1% 1.4%  
269 0.3% 1.4%  
270 0.5% 1.0%  
271 0.1% 0.5%  
272 0% 0.5%  
273 0.1% 0.4%  
274 0% 0.4%  
275 0.1% 0.3%  
276 0% 0.3%  
277 0% 0.3%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0.1% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0.1% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.8%  
185 0.2% 99.8%  
186 0.3% 99.6%  
187 0.3% 99.3%  
188 0.6% 99.0%  
189 0.1% 98%  
190 0.3% 98%  
191 0.2% 98%  
192 0.1% 98%  
193 0% 98%  
194 0.2% 98%  
195 0.7% 97%  
196 0.2% 97%  
197 0.2% 97%  
198 0.6% 96%  
199 0.5% 96%  
200 0.3% 95%  
201 0.8% 95%  
202 0.6% 94%  
203 0.8% 93%  
204 0.3% 93%  
205 4% 92%  
206 2% 88%  
207 0.9% 87%  
208 5% 86%  
209 0.3% 81%  
210 3% 81%  
211 3% 78%  
212 0.2% 75%  
213 2% 75%  
214 0.5% 72%  
215 0.8% 72%  
216 2% 71%  
217 3% 69%  
218 0.7% 66%  
219 5% 66%  
220 2% 60%  
221 2% 58%  
222 2% 55%  
223 0.5% 54%  
224 0.4% 53%  
225 0.6% 53%  
226 0.2% 52%  
227 3% 52% Median
228 4% 49%  
229 7% 44%  
230 0.9% 38%  
231 3% 37%  
232 4% 34%  
233 2% 29%  
234 0.8% 27%  
235 0.4% 26%  
236 0.7% 26%  
237 2% 25%  
238 2% 23%  
239 0% 21%  
240 0.8% 21%  
241 1.0% 20%  
242 2% 19%  
243 0.5% 17%  
244 2% 17%  
245 3% 15%  
246 0.4% 12%  
247 1.2% 12%  
248 1.1% 11%  
249 0.1% 9%  
250 1.3% 9%  
251 0.4% 8%  
252 0.2% 8%  
253 0.3% 7%  
254 0.8% 7%  
255 0.5% 6%  
256 0.3% 6%  
257 0.9% 5%  
258 0.9% 5%  
259 0.2% 4%  
260 0.4% 4%  
261 0.1% 3%  
262 0.7% 3% Last Result
263 0.1% 2%  
264 0.3% 2%  
265 0.1% 2%  
266 0.4% 2%  
267 0% 1.5%  
268 0.1% 1.4%  
269 0.3% 1.4%  
270 0.5% 1.0%  
271 0.1% 0.5%  
272 0% 0.5%  
273 0.1% 0.4%  
274 0% 0.4%  
275 0.1% 0.3%  
276 0% 0.3%  
277 0% 0.3%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0.1% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0.1% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0.1% 100%  
112 0.4% 99.9%  
113 0.2% 99.5%  
114 0.1% 99.3%  
115 0% 99.2%  
116 0.3% 99.1%  
117 0.2% 98.9%  
118 0.3% 98.7%  
119 0.6% 98%  
120 0.5% 98%  
121 1.0% 97%  
122 0.6% 96%  
123 2% 96%  
124 0.5% 94%  
125 0.6% 94%  
126 0.2% 93%  
127 2% 93%  
128 1.4% 91%  
129 3% 89%  
130 1.4% 86%  
131 0.8% 85%  
132 2% 84%  
133 2% 82%  
134 2% 79%  
135 2% 77%  
136 4% 75%  
137 5% 71%  
138 9% 66%  
139 3% 57%  
140 7% 54%  
141 2% 47% Median
142 0.6% 46%  
143 3% 45%  
144 2% 43%  
145 3% 41%  
146 3% 38%  
147 0.7% 35%  
148 4% 34%  
149 0.8% 30%  
150 1.0% 29%  
151 2% 28%  
152 3% 26%  
153 0.4% 23%  
154 2% 23%  
155 0.9% 21%  
156 0.3% 20%  
157 1.5% 20%  
158 3% 18%  
159 0.5% 15%  
160 2% 15%  
161 0.5% 13%  
162 4% 13%  
163 0.4% 9%  
164 3% 8%  
165 0.3% 6%  
166 0.5% 5%  
167 0.6% 5%  
168 0.4% 4%  
169 0.9% 4%  
170 0.6% 3%  
171 0.2% 2%  
172 0.3% 2%  
173 0.1% 2%  
174 0.1% 2%  
175 0.5% 2%  
176 0.2% 1.1%  
177 0.1% 0.8%  
178 0.2% 0.7%  
179 0% 0.5%  
180 0% 0.5%  
181 0% 0.5%  
182 0% 0.4%  
183 0% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.4%  
185 0.1% 0.3%  
186 0% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0.1% 100%  
112 0.4% 99.9%  
113 0.2% 99.5%  
114 0.1% 99.3%  
115 0% 99.2%  
116 0.3% 99.1%  
117 0.2% 98.9%  
118 0.3% 98.7%  
119 0.6% 98%  
120 0.5% 98%  
121 1.0% 97%  
122 0.6% 96%  
123 2% 96%  
124 0.5% 94%  
125 0.6% 94%  
126 0.2% 93%  
127 2% 93%  
128 1.4% 91%  
129 3% 89%  
130 1.4% 86%  
131 0.8% 85%  
132 2% 84%  
133 2% 82%  
134 2% 79%  
135 2% 77%  
136 4% 75%  
137 5% 71%  
138 9% 66%  
139 3% 57%  
140 7% 54%  
141 2% 47% Median
142 0.6% 46%  
143 3% 45%  
144 2% 43%  
145 3% 41%  
146 3% 38%  
147 0.7% 35%  
148 4% 34%  
149 0.8% 30%  
150 1.0% 29%  
151 2% 28%  
152 3% 26%  
153 0.4% 23%  
154 2% 23%  
155 0.9% 21%  
156 0.3% 20%  
157 1.5% 20%  
158 3% 18%  
159 0.5% 15%  
160 2% 15%  
161 0.5% 13%  
162 4% 13%  
163 0.4% 9%  
164 3% 8%  
165 0.3% 6%  
166 0.5% 5%  
167 0.6% 5%  
168 0.4% 4%  
169 0.9% 4%  
170 0.6% 3%  
171 0.2% 2%  
172 0.3% 2%  
173 0.1% 2%  
174 0.1% 2%  
175 0.5% 2%  
176 0.2% 1.1%  
177 0.1% 0.8%  
178 0.2% 0.7%  
179 0% 0.5%  
180 0% 0.5%  
181 0% 0.5%  
182 0% 0.4%  
183 0% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.4%  
185 0.1% 0.3%  
186 0% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0% 99.7%  
92 0.2% 99.7%  
93 0.1% 99.5%  
94 0.1% 99.4%  
95 0.1% 99.3%  
96 0.7% 99.1%  
97 0.2% 98%  
98 1.1% 98%  
99 0.3% 97%  
100 0.6% 97%  
101 0.2% 96%  
102 0.5% 96%  
103 3% 96%  
104 0.2% 92%  
105 1.1% 92%  
106 0.4% 91%  
107 0.3% 90%  
108 4% 90%  
109 1.2% 86%  
110 1.4% 85%  
111 2% 83%  
112 2% 82%  
113 5% 79%  
114 0.9% 75%  
115 2% 74%  
116 1.4% 72%  
117 1.0% 70%  
118 1.1% 69%  
119 3% 68%  
120 1.5% 65%  
121 1.0% 64%  
122 2% 63%  
123 3% 61%  
124 4% 58%  
125 1.5% 54% Median
126 3% 52%  
127 11% 49%  
128 0.5% 38%  
129 0.5% 37%  
130 0.6% 37%  
131 5% 36%  
132 1.4% 31%  
133 1.0% 29%  
134 0.5% 28%  
135 2% 28%  
136 0.5% 26%  
137 2% 26%  
138 0.3% 24%  
139 2% 24%  
140 1.1% 22%  
141 0.7% 21%  
142 1.4% 20%  
143 1.4% 18%  
144 1.0% 17%  
145 1.0% 16%  
146 0.2% 15%  
147 3% 15%  
148 0.7% 12%  
149 0.4% 11%  
150 1.2% 10%  
151 2% 9%  
152 3% 7%  
153 0.2% 5%  
154 0.4% 4%  
155 0.9% 4%  
156 0.6% 3%  
157 0.5% 3%  
158 0.3% 2%  
159 0.1% 2%  
160 0.7% 2%  
161 0.1% 1.0%  
162 0% 0.9%  
163 0.3% 0.9%  
164 0% 0.6%  
165 0% 0.6%  
166 0% 0.5%  
167 0% 0.5%  
168 0% 0.5%  
169 0.1% 0.4%  
170 0% 0.4%  
171 0% 0.3%  
172 0% 0.3%  
173 0% 0.3%  
174 0% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.2%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0.1% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.7%  
86 0.2% 99.6%  
87 0.1% 99.4%  
88 0% 99.3%  
89 0.2% 99.3%  
90 0.5% 99.0%  
91 0.1% 98.5%  
92 0.8% 98%  
93 0.2% 98%  
94 0.9% 97%  
95 0.3% 97%  
96 1.0% 96%  
97 0.6% 95%  
98 0.4% 95%  
99 3% 94%  
100 0.9% 91%  
101 2% 90%  
102 1.4% 88%  
103 0.2% 86%  
104 5% 86%  
105 0.5% 81%  
106 4% 81%  
107 1.3% 77%  
108 2% 76%  
109 2% 74%  
110 2% 72%  
111 0.9% 70%  
112 1.4% 69%  
113 2% 68%  
114 2% 65%  
115 3% 64%  
116 1.1% 60%  
117 6% 59%  
118 6% 54% Median
119 7% 48%  
120 0.5% 41%  
121 2% 40%  
122 1.5% 38%  
123 1.0% 37%  
124 0.8% 36%  
125 1.1% 35%  
126 4% 34%  
127 1.2% 29%  
128 1.1% 28%  
129 2% 27%  
130 2% 25%  
131 0.8% 23%  
132 0.9% 23%  
133 1.4% 22%  
134 0.3% 20%  
135 2% 20%  
136 2% 18%  
137 0.2% 16%  
138 0.3% 16%  
139 2% 16%  
140 0.8% 14%  
141 0.2% 13%  
142 1.4% 13%  
143 5% 12%  
144 1.5% 7%  
145 0.2% 5%  
146 0.2% 5%  
147 0.2% 5%  
148 2% 5%  
149 0.4% 3%  
150 0.3% 2%  
151 0.1% 2%  
152 0.3% 2%  
153 0% 1.5%  
154 0.1% 1.5%  
155 0.2% 1.3%  
156 0.5% 1.1%  
157 0% 0.6%  
158 0.1% 0.6%  
159 0.1% 0.6%  
160 0.1% 0.5%  
161 0% 0.4%  
162 0% 0.3%  
163 0% 0.3%  
164 0% 0.3%  
165 0.1% 0.3%  
166 0.1% 0.2%  
167 0% 0.2%  
168 0% 0.2%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0.1% 0.1%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0% 99.8%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.1% 99.5%  
43 0.2% 99.5%  
44 0% 99.2%  
45 0.8% 99.2%  
46 0.2% 98%  
47 1.0% 98%  
48 0.4% 97%  
49 0.6% 97%  
50 0.3% 96%  
51 1.1% 96%  
52 2% 95%  
53 1.1% 93%  
54 1.0% 92%  
55 0.5% 91%  
56 0.5% 90%  
57 4% 90%  
58 2% 86%  
59 2% 84%  
60 2% 82%  
61 2% 80%  
62 2% 78%  
63 2% 76%  
64 2% 74%  
65 1.0% 71%  
66 2% 70%  
67 1.4% 68%  
68 1.0% 66%  
69 1.3% 65%  
70 3% 64%  
71 6% 61%  
72 2% 56%  
73 1.4% 53%  
74 1.1% 52% Median
75 0.5% 51%  
76 13% 51%  
77 0.3% 38%  
78 0.8% 37%  
79 0.4% 36%  
80 6% 36%  
81 1.0% 30%  
82 2% 29%  
83 0.7% 27%  
84 2% 26%  
85 0.4% 25%  
86 2% 24%  
87 0.8% 22%  
88 0.9% 21%  
89 1.3% 21%  
90 1.3% 19%  
91 1.3% 18%  
92 0.4% 17%  
93 0.8% 16%  
94 0.8% 15%  
95 3% 15%  
96 1.0% 12%  
97 2% 11%  
98 2% 10%  
99 2% 8%  
100 0.3% 5%  
101 0.5% 5%  
102 1.0% 5%  
103 0.7% 4%  
104 0.2% 3%  
105 0.3% 3%  
106 0.1% 2%  
107 0.8% 2%  
108 0.1% 1.4%  
109 0.1% 1.3%  
110 0.2% 1.1%  
111 0.2% 0.9%  
112 0.1% 0.8%  
113 0% 0.6%  
114 0% 0.6%  
115 0.1% 0.6%  
116 0.1% 0.5%  
117 0.1% 0.5%  
118 0% 0.4%  
119 0% 0.3%  
120 0% 0.3%  
121 0% 0.3%  
122 0.1% 0.3%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.8%  
35 0.2% 99.7%  
36 0% 99.5%  
37 0.1% 99.4%  
38 0.2% 99.3%  
39 0.5% 99.2%  
40 0.1% 98.6%  
41 0.8% 98%  
42 0.2% 98%  
43 0.7% 97%  
44 0.7% 97%  
45 0.9% 96%  
46 0.3% 95%  
47 2% 95%  
48 1.4% 93%  
49 2% 92%  
50 2% 90%  
51 2% 88%  
52 0.3% 86%  
53 5% 86%  
54 0.9% 81%  
55 2% 80%  
56 3% 77%  
57 0.9% 75%  
58 2% 74%  
59 1.3% 71%  
60 1.0% 70%  
61 2% 69%  
62 3% 67%  
63 2% 64%  
64 2% 62%  
65 4% 59%  
66 5% 55%  
67 1.2% 50% Median
68 9% 49%  
69 1.4% 40%  
70 1.4% 38%  
71 0.3% 37%  
72 1.4% 37%  
73 0.5% 35%  
74 1.0% 35%  
75 5% 34%  
76 3% 29%  
77 2% 26%  
78 0.6% 24%  
79 1.0% 23%  
80 0.5% 23%  
81 0.6% 22%  
82 3% 21%  
83 1.2% 18%  
84 0.7% 17%  
85 0.2% 17%  
86 1.3% 16%  
87 0.4% 15%  
88 0.6% 15%  
89 2% 14%  
90 2% 12%  
91 4% 10%  
92 0.5% 6%  
93 0.4% 6%  
94 0.2% 5%  
95 2% 5%  
96 0.4% 3%  
97 0.4% 3%  
98 0.1% 2%  
99 0.3% 2%  
100 0.3% 2%  
101 0.1% 2%  
102 0.2% 2%  
103 0.7% 1.4%  
104 0% 0.8%  
105 0% 0.7%  
106 0% 0.7%  
107 0.1% 0.6%  
108 0.1% 0.6%  
109 0.1% 0.4%  
110 0% 0.4%  
111 0% 0.3%  
112 0% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.3%  
115 0% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.2%  
117 0% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.8%  
35 0.2% 99.7%  
36 0% 99.5%  
37 0.1% 99.4%  
38 0.2% 99.3%  
39 0.5% 99.2%  
40 0.1% 98.6%  
41 0.8% 98%  
42 0.2% 98%  
43 0.7% 97%  
44 0.7% 97%  
45 0.9% 96%  
46 0.3% 95%  
47 2% 95%  
48 1.4% 93%  
49 2% 92%  
50 2% 90%  
51 2% 88%  
52 0.3% 86%  
53 5% 86%  
54 0.9% 81%  
55 2% 80%  
56 3% 77%  
57 0.9% 75%  
58 2% 74%  
59 1.3% 71%  
60 1.0% 70%  
61 2% 69%  
62 3% 67%  
63 2% 64%  
64 2% 62%  
65 4% 59%  
66 5% 55%  
67 1.2% 50% Median
68 9% 49%  
69 1.4% 40%  
70 1.4% 38%  
71 0.3% 37%  
72 1.4% 37%  
73 0.5% 35%  
74 1.0% 35%  
75 5% 34%  
76 3% 29%  
77 2% 26%  
78 0.6% 24%  
79 1.0% 23%  
80 0.5% 23%  
81 0.6% 22%  
82 3% 21%  
83 1.2% 18%  
84 0.7% 17%  
85 0.2% 17%  
86 1.3% 16%  
87 0.4% 15%  
88 0.6% 15%  
89 2% 14%  
90 2% 12%  
91 4% 10%  
92 0.5% 6%  
93 0.4% 6%  
94 0.2% 5%  
95 2% 5%  
96 0.4% 3%  
97 0.4% 3%  
98 0.1% 2%  
99 0.3% 2%  
100 0.3% 2%  
101 0.1% 2%  
102 0.2% 2%  
103 0.7% 1.4%  
104 0% 0.8%  
105 0% 0.7%  
106 0% 0.7%  
107 0.1% 0.6%  
108 0.1% 0.6%  
109 0.1% 0.4%  
110 0% 0.4%  
111 0% 0.3%  
112 0% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.3%  
115 0% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.2%  
117 0% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations