Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 23–24 July 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party |
42.4% |
24.4% |
23.1–25.8% |
22.8–26.2% |
22.5–26.5% |
21.8–27.2% |
Liberal Democrats |
7.4% |
22.5% |
21.2–23.9% |
20.9–24.2% |
20.6–24.6% |
20.0–25.2% |
Labour Party |
40.0% |
18.6% |
17.4–19.9% |
17.1–20.2% |
16.8–20.5% |
16.3–21.1% |
Brexit Party |
0.0% |
16.6% |
15.5–17.8% |
15.2–18.2% |
14.9–18.5% |
14.4–19.1% |
Green Party |
1.6% |
8.8% |
8.0–9.8% |
7.7–10.0% |
7.5–10.2% |
7.2–10.7% |
Scottish National Party |
3.0% |
3.9% |
3.4–4.6% |
3.2–4.8% |
3.1–4.9% |
2.8–5.3% |
Plaid Cymru |
0.5% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.4% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.6% |
0.5–1.8% |
UK Independence Party |
1.8% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.4% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.6% |
0.5–1.8% |
Change UK |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.5% |
0.1–0.5% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
111 |
0% |
100% |
|
112 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
113 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
114 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
115 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
116 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
117 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
118 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
119 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
120 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
121 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
122 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
123 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
124 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
125 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
126 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
127 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
128 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
129 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
130 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
131 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
132 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
133 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
134 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
135 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
136 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
137 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
138 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
139 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
140 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
141 |
0% |
98.9% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
143 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
144 |
0.4% |
98.6% |
|
145 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
146 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
147 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
148 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
149 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
150 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
152 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
153 |
1.5% |
97% |
|
154 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
155 |
0% |
95% |
|
156 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
157 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
158 |
0% |
94% |
|
159 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
160 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
161 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
162 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
163 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
164 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
165 |
0.1% |
92% |
|
166 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
167 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
168 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
169 |
0.6% |
91% |
|
170 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
171 |
0.9% |
91% |
|
172 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
173 |
0.8% |
89% |
|
174 |
1.0% |
88% |
|
175 |
0.2% |
87% |
|
176 |
0.2% |
87% |
|
177 |
0.3% |
87% |
|
178 |
0.7% |
86% |
|
179 |
4% |
86% |
|
180 |
0.3% |
82% |
|
181 |
1.2% |
82% |
|
182 |
0.6% |
81% |
|
183 |
2% |
80% |
|
184 |
0.2% |
78% |
|
185 |
1.3% |
78% |
|
186 |
0.3% |
76% |
|
187 |
2% |
76% |
|
188 |
0.6% |
74% |
|
189 |
0.1% |
73% |
|
190 |
2% |
73% |
|
191 |
0.5% |
71% |
|
192 |
2% |
71% |
|
193 |
0.6% |
69% |
|
194 |
0.4% |
68% |
|
195 |
6% |
68% |
|
196 |
0.4% |
62% |
|
197 |
0.1% |
62% |
|
198 |
2% |
62% |
|
199 |
2% |
60% |
|
200 |
0.5% |
57% |
|
201 |
0.9% |
57% |
|
202 |
2% |
56% |
|
203 |
0.7% |
54% |
|
204 |
0.6% |
53% |
|
205 |
0.4% |
52% |
|
206 |
0.6% |
52% |
|
207 |
0.5% |
51% |
|
208 |
0.2% |
51% |
|
209 |
0.9% |
51% |
Median |
210 |
0.3% |
50% |
|
211 |
0.3% |
49% |
|
212 |
8% |
49% |
|
213 |
0.5% |
41% |
|
214 |
0.4% |
40% |
|
215 |
0.9% |
40% |
|
216 |
0.4% |
39% |
|
217 |
0.9% |
39% |
|
218 |
1.3% |
38% |
|
219 |
4% |
36% |
|
220 |
1.0% |
33% |
|
221 |
0.5% |
32% |
|
222 |
4% |
31% |
|
223 |
0.5% |
28% |
|
224 |
4% |
27% |
|
225 |
0.7% |
23% |
|
226 |
0.4% |
22% |
|
227 |
0.2% |
22% |
|
228 |
0.2% |
22% |
|
229 |
0.1% |
22% |
|
230 |
0.2% |
21% |
|
231 |
0.8% |
21% |
|
232 |
5% |
20% |
|
233 |
2% |
16% |
|
234 |
0.4% |
14% |
|
235 |
3% |
13% |
|
236 |
3% |
11% |
|
237 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
238 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
239 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
240 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
241 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
242 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
243 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
244 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
245 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
246 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
247 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
248 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
249 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
250 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
251 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
252 |
0% |
3% |
|
253 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
254 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
255 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
257 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
258 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
259 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
260 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
261 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
262 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
263 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
264 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
265 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
266 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
267 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
268 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
269 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
270 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
271 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
272 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
273 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
275 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
276 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
277 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
278 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
279 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
280 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0% |
100% |
|
60 |
0% |
100% |
|
61 |
0% |
100% |
|
62 |
0% |
100% |
|
63 |
0% |
100% |
|
64 |
0% |
100% |
|
65 |
0% |
100% |
|
66 |
0% |
100% |
|
67 |
0% |
100% |
|
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0% |
100% |
|
70 |
0% |
100% |
|
71 |
0% |
100% |
|
72 |
0% |
100% |
|
73 |
0% |
100% |
|
74 |
0% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
100% |
|
76 |
0% |
100% |
|
77 |
0% |
100% |
|
78 |
0% |
100% |
|
79 |
0% |
100% |
|
80 |
0% |
100% |
|
81 |
0% |
100% |
|
82 |
0% |
100% |
|
83 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
84 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
85 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
86 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
87 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
88 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
89 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
90 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
91 |
3% |
97% |
|
92 |
1.4% |
94% |
|
93 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
94 |
1.2% |
92% |
|
95 |
2% |
90% |
|
96 |
0.4% |
88% |
|
97 |
4% |
88% |
|
98 |
0.7% |
84% |
|
99 |
6% |
83% |
|
100 |
3% |
77% |
|
101 |
1.5% |
73% |
|
102 |
4% |
72% |
|
103 |
9% |
68% |
|
104 |
6% |
58% |
|
105 |
1.0% |
52% |
|
106 |
15% |
51% |
Median |
107 |
4% |
37% |
|
108 |
4% |
33% |
|
109 |
2% |
29% |
|
110 |
9% |
27% |
|
111 |
1.3% |
18% |
|
112 |
2% |
17% |
|
113 |
1.4% |
15% |
|
114 |
4% |
14% |
|
115 |
3% |
10% |
|
116 |
2% |
7% |
|
117 |
1.4% |
5% |
|
118 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
119 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
120 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
121 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
|
122 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
123 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
124 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
125 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
126 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
127 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
128 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
129 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
130 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
78 |
0% |
100% |
|
79 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
80 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
81 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
82 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
83 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
84 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
85 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
86 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
87 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
88 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
89 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
90 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
91 |
0.4% |
98.8% |
|
92 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
93 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
94 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
95 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
96 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
97 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
98 |
4% |
95% |
|
99 |
5% |
91% |
|
100 |
1.4% |
86% |
|
101 |
3% |
85% |
|
102 |
0.9% |
82% |
|
103 |
2% |
81% |
|
104 |
4% |
79% |
|
105 |
2% |
75% |
|
106 |
0.6% |
73% |
|
107 |
0.6% |
72% |
|
108 |
1.0% |
72% |
|
109 |
3% |
71% |
|
110 |
2% |
68% |
|
111 |
0.9% |
66% |
|
112 |
4% |
65% |
|
113 |
5% |
62% |
|
114 |
5% |
57% |
|
115 |
1.3% |
52% |
|
116 |
2% |
50% |
Median |
117 |
1.2% |
49% |
|
118 |
1.2% |
48% |
|
119 |
4% |
46% |
|
120 |
2% |
43% |
|
121 |
0.5% |
41% |
|
122 |
2% |
40% |
|
123 |
3% |
38% |
|
124 |
0.5% |
35% |
|
125 |
4% |
35% |
|
126 |
1.3% |
30% |
|
127 |
0.6% |
29% |
|
128 |
9% |
28% |
|
129 |
2% |
19% |
|
130 |
4% |
17% |
|
131 |
1.5% |
13% |
|
132 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
133 |
1.0% |
11% |
|
134 |
1.0% |
10% |
|
135 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
136 |
1.0% |
9% |
|
137 |
2% |
8% |
|
138 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
139 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
140 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
141 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
142 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
143 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
144 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
145 |
2% |
4% |
|
146 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
147 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
148 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
149 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
150 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
151 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
152 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
153 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
154 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
155 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
157 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
158 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
159 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
160 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
161 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
162 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
163 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
164 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
165 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
166 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
167 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
168 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
169 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
170 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
171 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
172 |
0% |
0% |
|
173 |
0% |
0% |
|
174 |
0% |
0% |
|
175 |
0% |
0% |
|
176 |
0% |
0% |
|
177 |
0% |
0% |
|
178 |
0% |
0% |
|
179 |
0% |
0% |
|
180 |
0% |
0% |
|
181 |
0% |
0% |
|
182 |
0% |
0% |
|
183 |
0% |
0% |
|
184 |
0% |
0% |
|
185 |
0% |
0% |
|
186 |
0% |
0% |
|
187 |
0% |
0% |
|
188 |
0% |
0% |
|
189 |
0% |
0% |
|
190 |
0% |
0% |
|
191 |
0% |
0% |
|
192 |
0% |
0% |
|
193 |
0% |
0% |
|
194 |
0% |
0% |
|
195 |
0% |
0% |
|
196 |
0% |
0% |
|
197 |
0% |
0% |
|
198 |
0% |
0% |
|
199 |
0% |
0% |
|
200 |
0% |
0% |
|
201 |
0% |
0% |
|
202 |
0% |
0% |
|
203 |
0% |
0% |
|
204 |
0% |
0% |
|
205 |
0% |
0% |
|
206 |
0% |
0% |
|
207 |
0% |
0% |
|
208 |
0% |
0% |
|
209 |
0% |
0% |
|
210 |
0% |
0% |
|
211 |
0% |
0% |
|
212 |
0% |
0% |
|
213 |
0% |
0% |
|
214 |
0% |
0% |
|
215 |
0% |
0% |
|
216 |
0% |
0% |
|
217 |
0% |
0% |
|
218 |
0% |
0% |
|
219 |
0% |
0% |
|
220 |
0% |
0% |
|
221 |
0% |
0% |
|
222 |
0% |
0% |
|
223 |
0% |
0% |
|
224 |
0% |
0% |
|
225 |
0% |
0% |
|
226 |
0% |
0% |
|
227 |
0% |
0% |
|
228 |
0% |
0% |
|
229 |
0% |
0% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Brexit Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0% |
100% |
|
60 |
0% |
100% |
|
61 |
0% |
100% |
|
62 |
0% |
100% |
|
63 |
0% |
100% |
|
64 |
0% |
100% |
|
65 |
0% |
100% |
|
66 |
0% |
100% |
|
67 |
0% |
100% |
|
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0% |
100% |
|
70 |
0% |
100% |
|
71 |
0% |
100% |
|
72 |
0% |
100% |
|
73 |
0% |
100% |
|
74 |
0% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
100% |
|
76 |
0% |
100% |
|
77 |
0% |
100% |
|
78 |
0% |
100% |
|
79 |
0% |
100% |
|
80 |
0% |
100% |
|
81 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
82 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
83 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
84 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
85 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
86 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
87 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
88 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
89 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
90 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
91 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
92 |
0.7% |
99.7% |
|
93 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
94 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
95 |
0% |
98.8% |
|
96 |
0% |
98.8% |
|
97 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
98 |
0% |
98.7% |
|
99 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
100 |
0% |
98% |
|
101 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
102 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
103 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
104 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
105 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
106 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
108 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
109 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
110 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
111 |
0.8% |
95% |
|
112 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
113 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
114 |
5% |
94% |
|
115 |
1.2% |
89% |
|
116 |
0.4% |
88% |
|
117 |
0.4% |
88% |
|
118 |
0.4% |
87% |
|
119 |
2% |
87% |
|
120 |
10% |
85% |
|
121 |
0.7% |
74% |
|
122 |
3% |
74% |
|
123 |
4% |
70% |
|
124 |
0.7% |
66% |
|
125 |
0.4% |
66% |
|
126 |
0.2% |
65% |
|
127 |
1.0% |
65% |
|
128 |
0.3% |
64% |
|
129 |
1.4% |
64% |
|
130 |
0.5% |
62% |
|
131 |
2% |
62% |
|
132 |
1.4% |
59% |
|
133 |
3% |
58% |
|
134 |
1.1% |
55% |
|
135 |
0.8% |
54% |
|
136 |
4% |
53% |
Median |
137 |
6% |
50% |
|
138 |
1.2% |
44% |
|
139 |
2% |
43% |
|
140 |
0.8% |
40% |
|
141 |
0.3% |
40% |
|
142 |
0.9% |
39% |
|
143 |
1.2% |
38% |
|
144 |
3% |
37% |
|
145 |
2% |
35% |
|
146 |
0.2% |
33% |
|
147 |
0.5% |
33% |
|
148 |
0.2% |
32% |
|
149 |
0.2% |
32% |
|
150 |
0.6% |
32% |
|
151 |
1.3% |
31% |
|
152 |
0.7% |
30% |
|
153 |
0.9% |
29% |
|
154 |
2% |
28% |
|
155 |
3% |
27% |
|
156 |
5% |
23% |
|
157 |
0.9% |
18% |
|
158 |
1.2% |
18% |
|
159 |
0.6% |
16% |
|
160 |
2% |
16% |
|
161 |
0.1% |
14% |
|
162 |
2% |
14% |
|
163 |
0.2% |
12% |
|
164 |
0.6% |
12% |
|
165 |
0.7% |
11% |
|
166 |
0.1% |
10% |
|
167 |
0.1% |
10% |
|
168 |
0.1% |
10% |
|
169 |
1.0% |
10% |
|
170 |
0.1% |
9% |
|
171 |
0.1% |
9% |
|
172 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
173 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
174 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
175 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
176 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
177 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
178 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
179 |
2% |
6% |
|
180 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
181 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
182 |
0% |
2% |
|
183 |
0% |
2% |
|
184 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
185 |
0% |
1.5% |
|
186 |
0% |
1.4% |
|
187 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
188 |
0% |
1.3% |
|
189 |
0% |
1.3% |
|
190 |
0% |
1.3% |
|
191 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
192 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
193 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
194 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
195 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
196 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
197 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
198 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
199 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
200 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
201 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
202 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
203 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
204 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
205 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
206 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
207 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
208 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
209 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
210 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
211 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
212 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
213 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
214 |
0% |
0% |
|
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
37% |
98% |
|
6 |
26% |
62% |
Median |
7 |
14% |
36% |
|
8 |
13% |
22% |
|
9 |
6% |
8% |
|
10 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
11 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
47 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
48 |
0.6% |
99.2% |
|
49 |
0.5% |
98.6% |
|
50 |
10% |
98% |
|
51 |
44% |
88% |
Median |
52 |
34% |
43% |
|
53 |
2% |
10% |
|
54 |
7% |
7% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
4% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
2% |
96% |
|
6 |
12% |
95% |
|
7 |
22% |
82% |
|
8 |
37% |
60% |
Median |
9 |
7% |
23% |
|
10 |
3% |
16% |
|
11 |
3% |
14% |
|
12 |
2% |
11% |
|
13 |
3% |
9% |
|
14 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
15 |
2% |
5% |
|
16 |
2% |
2% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
18 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
UK Independence Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Change UK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK |
329 |
310 |
29% |
280–335 |
270–344 |
263–347 |
246–360 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
329 |
310 |
29% |
280–335 |
270–344 |
263–347 |
246–360 |
Liberal Democrats – Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
313 |
280 |
0.7% |
257–303 |
255–311 |
249–316 |
240–330 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
356 |
268 |
0.6% |
231–299 |
216–305 |
210–312 |
190–326 |
Liberal Democrats – Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
309 |
274 |
0.2% |
250–295 |
247–303 |
242–305 |
231–321 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
352 |
260 |
0.1% |
223–290 |
205–297 |
200–304 |
184–317 |
Liberal Democrats – Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
278 |
229 |
0% |
206–252 |
204–260 |
196–265 |
188–279 |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
321 |
218 |
0% |
179–247 |
165–254 |
158–261 |
139–274 |
Liberal Democrats – Labour Party – Change UK |
274 |
222 |
0% |
198–243 |
194–252 |
190–254 |
180–271 |
Liberal Democrats – Labour Party |
274 |
222 |
0% |
198–243 |
194–252 |
190–254 |
180–271 |
Conservative Party – Change UK |
317 |
209 |
0% |
171–236 |
154–246 |
149–253 |
133–265 |
Conservative Party |
317 |
209 |
0% |
171–236 |
154–246 |
149–253 |
133–265 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
301 |
175 |
0% |
158–194 |
156–200 |
153–205 |
147–214 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
297 |
167 |
0% |
151–185 |
148–192 |
145–195 |
139–206 |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
266 |
124 |
0% |
106–142 |
105–149 |
102–154 |
94–163 |
Labour Party – Change UK |
262 |
116 |
0% |
99–133 |
97–140 |
94–145 |
86–155 |
Labour Party |
262 |
116 |
0% |
99–133 |
97–140 |
94–145 |
86–155 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
232 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
233 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
234 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
235 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
236 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
237 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
238 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
239 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
240 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
241 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
242 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
243 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
244 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
245 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
246 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
247 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
248 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
249 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
250 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
251 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
252 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
253 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
254 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
255 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
256 |
0% |
98% |
|
257 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
258 |
0% |
98% |
|
259 |
0% |
98% |
|
260 |
0% |
98% |
|
261 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
262 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
263 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
264 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
265 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
266 |
0% |
97% |
|
267 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
268 |
1.5% |
97% |
|
269 |
0% |
96% |
|
270 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
272 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
273 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
274 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
275 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
276 |
0.5% |
93% |
|
277 |
0.3% |
92% |
|
278 |
2% |
92% |
|
279 |
0.3% |
90% |
|
280 |
1.0% |
90% |
|
281 |
0.3% |
89% |
|
282 |
0.2% |
89% |
|
283 |
0.5% |
89% |
|
284 |
0.6% |
88% |
|
285 |
4% |
87% |
|
286 |
1.0% |
84% |
|
287 |
0.3% |
83% |
|
288 |
0.9% |
82% |
|
289 |
1.3% |
81% |
|
290 |
0.6% |
80% |
|
291 |
0.8% |
80% |
|
292 |
0.5% |
79% |
|
293 |
2% |
78% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
76% |
|
295 |
0.4% |
76% |
|
296 |
1.0% |
76% |
|
297 |
2% |
75% |
|
298 |
5% |
72% |
|
299 |
0.5% |
68% |
|
300 |
0.9% |
67% |
|
301 |
3% |
66% |
|
302 |
1.4% |
64% |
|
303 |
0.5% |
62% |
|
304 |
0.4% |
62% |
|
305 |
0.3% |
61% |
|
306 |
1.5% |
61% |
|
307 |
0.9% |
60% |
|
308 |
3% |
59% |
|
309 |
5% |
56% |
|
310 |
2% |
51% |
|
311 |
0.6% |
50% |
|
312 |
0.3% |
49% |
|
313 |
0.4% |
49% |
|
314 |
0.4% |
49% |
|
315 |
2% |
48% |
Median |
316 |
0.3% |
47% |
|
317 |
0.4% |
46% |
|
318 |
7% |
46% |
|
319 |
0.7% |
38% |
|
320 |
0.3% |
38% |
|
321 |
1.1% |
37% |
|
322 |
1.0% |
36% |
|
323 |
0.3% |
35% |
|
324 |
5% |
35% |
|
325 |
0.6% |
30% |
|
326 |
1.1% |
29% |
Majority |
327 |
2% |
28% |
|
328 |
3% |
27% |
|
329 |
3% |
23% |
Last Result |
330 |
0.4% |
20% |
|
331 |
4% |
19% |
|
332 |
0.6% |
15% |
|
333 |
3% |
14% |
|
334 |
0.5% |
12% |
|
335 |
3% |
11% |
|
336 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
337 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
338 |
0.2% |
7% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
340 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
341 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
342 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
343 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
344 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
345 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
346 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
347 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
348 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
349 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
350 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
351 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
352 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
353 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
355 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
356 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
357 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
358 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
359 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
360 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
361 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
362 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
363 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
364 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
365 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
366 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
367 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
368 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
369 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
370 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
371 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
232 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
233 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
234 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
235 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
236 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
237 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
238 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
239 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
240 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
241 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
242 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
243 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
244 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
245 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
246 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
247 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
248 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
249 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
250 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
251 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
252 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
253 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
254 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
255 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
256 |
0% |
98% |
|
257 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
258 |
0% |
98% |
|
259 |
0% |
98% |
|
260 |
0% |
98% |
|
261 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
262 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
263 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
264 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
265 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
266 |
0% |
97% |
|
267 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
268 |
1.5% |
97% |
|
269 |
0% |
96% |
|
270 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
272 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
273 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
274 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
275 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
276 |
0.5% |
93% |
|
277 |
0.3% |
92% |
|
278 |
2% |
92% |
|
279 |
0.3% |
90% |
|
280 |
1.0% |
90% |
|
281 |
0.3% |
89% |
|
282 |
0.2% |
89% |
|
283 |
0.5% |
89% |
|
284 |
0.6% |
88% |
|
285 |
4% |
87% |
|
286 |
1.0% |
84% |
|
287 |
0.3% |
83% |
|
288 |
0.9% |
82% |
|
289 |
1.3% |
81% |
|
290 |
0.6% |
80% |
|
291 |
0.8% |
80% |
|
292 |
0.5% |
79% |
|
293 |
2% |
78% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
76% |
|
295 |
0.4% |
76% |
|
296 |
1.0% |
76% |
|
297 |
2% |
75% |
|
298 |
5% |
72% |
|
299 |
0.5% |
68% |
|
300 |
0.9% |
67% |
|
301 |
3% |
66% |
|
302 |
1.4% |
64% |
|
303 |
0.5% |
62% |
|
304 |
0.4% |
62% |
|
305 |
0.3% |
61% |
|
306 |
1.5% |
61% |
|
307 |
0.9% |
60% |
|
308 |
3% |
59% |
|
309 |
5% |
56% |
|
310 |
2% |
51% |
|
311 |
0.6% |
50% |
|
312 |
0.3% |
49% |
|
313 |
0.4% |
49% |
|
314 |
0.4% |
49% |
|
315 |
2% |
48% |
Median |
316 |
0.3% |
47% |
|
317 |
0.4% |
46% |
|
318 |
7% |
46% |
|
319 |
0.7% |
38% |
|
320 |
0.3% |
38% |
|
321 |
1.1% |
37% |
|
322 |
1.0% |
36% |
|
323 |
0.3% |
35% |
|
324 |
5% |
35% |
|
325 |
0.6% |
30% |
|
326 |
1.1% |
29% |
Majority |
327 |
2% |
28% |
|
328 |
3% |
27% |
|
329 |
3% |
23% |
Last Result |
330 |
0.4% |
20% |
|
331 |
4% |
19% |
|
332 |
0.6% |
15% |
|
333 |
3% |
14% |
|
334 |
0.5% |
12% |
|
335 |
3% |
11% |
|
336 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
337 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
338 |
0.2% |
7% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
340 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
341 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
342 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
343 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
344 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
345 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
346 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
347 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
348 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
349 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
350 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
351 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
352 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
353 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
355 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
356 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
357 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
358 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
359 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
360 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
361 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
362 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
363 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
364 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
365 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
366 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
367 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
368 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
369 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
370 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
371 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liberal Democrats – Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
232 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
233 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
234 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
235 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
236 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
237 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
238 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
239 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
240 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
241 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
242 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
243 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
244 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
245 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
|
246 |
0.3% |
98.5% |
|
247 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
248 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
249 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
250 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
251 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
252 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
253 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
254 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
255 |
2% |
96% |
|
256 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
257 |
4% |
94% |
|
258 |
2% |
90% |
|
259 |
0.9% |
88% |
|
260 |
0.6% |
87% |
|
261 |
1.3% |
86% |
|
262 |
0.6% |
85% |
|
263 |
2% |
84% |
|
264 |
1.0% |
82% |
|
265 |
0.3% |
81% |
|
266 |
0.3% |
81% |
|
267 |
3% |
80% |
|
268 |
1.3% |
77% |
|
269 |
3% |
76% |
|
270 |
3% |
73% |
|
271 |
3% |
70% |
|
272 |
0.4% |
67% |
|
273 |
1.4% |
67% |
|
274 |
6% |
66% |
|
275 |
0.4% |
59% |
|
276 |
0.7% |
59% |
|
277 |
4% |
58% |
|
278 |
1.0% |
54% |
|
279 |
2% |
53% |
|
280 |
2% |
51% |
|
281 |
0.6% |
49% |
Median |
282 |
1.1% |
49% |
|
283 |
1.5% |
48% |
|
284 |
3% |
46% |
|
285 |
0.3% |
43% |
|
286 |
0.6% |
43% |
|
287 |
0.7% |
42% |
|
288 |
0.5% |
41% |
|
289 |
1.2% |
41% |
|
290 |
4% |
40% |
|
291 |
4% |
36% |
|
292 |
4% |
32% |
|
293 |
8% |
28% |
|
294 |
0.2% |
20% |
|
295 |
2% |
20% |
|
296 |
2% |
18% |
|
297 |
0.5% |
16% |
|
298 |
0.1% |
16% |
|
299 |
0.5% |
16% |
|
300 |
1.5% |
15% |
|
301 |
0.8% |
14% |
|
302 |
0.3% |
13% |
|
303 |
2% |
12% |
|
304 |
0.8% |
10% |
|
305 |
0.5% |
9% |
|
306 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
307 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
308 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
309 |
2% |
8% |
|
310 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
311 |
1.3% |
6% |
|
312 |
1.0% |
4% |
|
313 |
0.5% |
3% |
Last Result |
314 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
315 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
316 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
317 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
318 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
319 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
320 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
321 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
322 |
0.4% |
1.2% |
|
323 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
324 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
325 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
326 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
328 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
329 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
330 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
331 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
332 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
334 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
335 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
336 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
337 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
338 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
339 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
340 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
342 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
343 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
170 |
0% |
100% |
|
171 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
172 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
173 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
174 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
175 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
176 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
177 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
178 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
179 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
180 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
181 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
182 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
183 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
184 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
185 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
186 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
187 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
188 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
189 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
190 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
191 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
192 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
193 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
194 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
195 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
196 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
197 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
198 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
199 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
200 |
0% |
98.9% |
|
201 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
202 |
0% |
98.7% |
|
203 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
|
204 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
205 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
206 |
0% |
98% |
|
207 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
208 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
209 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
210 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
211 |
2% |
97% |
|
212 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
213 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
214 |
0% |
96% |
|
215 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
216 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
217 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
218 |
0% |
94% |
|
219 |
0% |
94% |
|
220 |
1.0% |
94% |
|
221 |
0.1% |
93% |
|
222 |
0.1% |
93% |
|
223 |
0.5% |
93% |
|
224 |
0% |
93% |
|
225 |
1.0% |
92% |
|
226 |
0% |
91% |
|
227 |
0.2% |
91% |
|
228 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
229 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
230 |
0.4% |
91% |
|
231 |
1.4% |
90% |
|
232 |
0.4% |
89% |
|
233 |
0.9% |
88% |
|
234 |
0.4% |
87% |
|
235 |
0.1% |
87% |
|
236 |
0.9% |
87% |
|
237 |
0.5% |
86% |
|
238 |
0.2% |
86% |
|
239 |
4% |
85% |
|
240 |
1.1% |
82% |
|
241 |
2% |
81% |
|
242 |
0.4% |
79% |
|
243 |
1.4% |
78% |
|
244 |
0.2% |
77% |
|
245 |
0.2% |
77% |
|
246 |
0.2% |
77% |
|
247 |
4% |
76% |
|
248 |
0.4% |
73% |
|
249 |
0.3% |
72% |
|
250 |
1.4% |
72% |
|
251 |
2% |
71% |
|
252 |
0.2% |
69% |
|
253 |
4% |
69% |
|
254 |
0.2% |
64% |
|
255 |
0.4% |
64% |
|
256 |
2% |
64% |
|
257 |
0.5% |
62% |
|
258 |
4% |
62% |
|
259 |
1.5% |
58% |
|
260 |
0.2% |
57% |
|
261 |
0.2% |
56% |
|
262 |
0.8% |
56% |
|
263 |
2% |
55% |
|
264 |
0.8% |
53% |
|
265 |
0.5% |
52% |
|
266 |
0.6% |
52% |
|
267 |
0.4% |
51% |
|
268 |
1.0% |
51% |
Median |
269 |
0.1% |
50% |
|
270 |
0.4% |
50% |
|
271 |
8% |
49% |
|
272 |
0.6% |
41% |
|
273 |
0.6% |
41% |
|
274 |
0.6% |
40% |
|
275 |
1.1% |
39% |
|
276 |
0.6% |
38% |
|
277 |
0.8% |
38% |
|
278 |
3% |
37% |
|
279 |
2% |
34% |
|
280 |
3% |
32% |
|
281 |
0.2% |
29% |
|
282 |
0.2% |
29% |
|
283 |
4% |
28% |
|
284 |
0.3% |
25% |
|
285 |
1.3% |
24% |
|
286 |
0.1% |
23% |
|
287 |
1.0% |
23% |
|
288 |
0.3% |
22% |
|
289 |
1.2% |
22% |
|
290 |
0.3% |
20% |
|
291 |
5% |
20% |
|
292 |
0.3% |
15% |
|
293 |
0.2% |
14% |
|
294 |
0.3% |
14% |
|
295 |
1.0% |
14% |
|
296 |
0.2% |
13% |
|
297 |
3% |
13% |
|
298 |
0.1% |
10% |
|
299 |
0.1% |
10% |
|
300 |
3% |
10% |
|
301 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
302 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
303 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
304 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
305 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
306 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
307 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
308 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
309 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
310 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
311 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
312 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
313 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
314 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
315 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
316 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
317 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
318 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
319 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
320 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
321 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
322 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
323 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
324 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
325 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
326 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
328 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
329 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
330 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
331 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
332 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
333 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
334 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
335 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
336 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
337 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
338 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
339 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
340 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
356 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Liberal Democrats – Labour Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
224 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
225 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
226 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
227 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
228 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
229 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
230 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
231 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
232 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
233 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
234 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
235 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
236 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
237 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
238 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
239 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
240 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
241 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
242 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
243 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
244 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
245 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
246 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
247 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
248 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
249 |
0.8% |
94% |
|
250 |
3% |
93% |
|
251 |
3% |
90% |
|
252 |
0.6% |
87% |
|
253 |
1.3% |
86% |
|
254 |
0.3% |
85% |
|
255 |
2% |
85% |
|
256 |
4% |
83% |
|
257 |
0.4% |
79% |
|
258 |
0.2% |
78% |
|
259 |
3% |
78% |
|
260 |
0.7% |
75% |
|
261 |
1.1% |
74% |
|
262 |
1.2% |
73% |
|
263 |
4% |
71% |
|
264 |
1.3% |
68% |
|
265 |
1.0% |
66% |
|
266 |
5% |
65% |
|
267 |
2% |
61% |
|
268 |
0.7% |
59% |
|
269 |
4% |
58% |
|
270 |
2% |
54% |
|
271 |
1.1% |
53% |
|
272 |
1.0% |
52% |
|
273 |
0.7% |
51% |
Median |
274 |
3% |
50% |
|
275 |
1.1% |
47% |
|
276 |
3% |
46% |
|
277 |
0.9% |
43% |
|
278 |
1.0% |
42% |
|
279 |
0.2% |
41% |
|
280 |
0.6% |
41% |
|
281 |
0.9% |
40% |
|
282 |
0.2% |
39% |
|
283 |
5% |
39% |
|
284 |
6% |
34% |
|
285 |
10% |
28% |
|
286 |
0.5% |
19% |
|
287 |
0.3% |
18% |
|
288 |
2% |
18% |
|
289 |
0.2% |
16% |
|
290 |
0.5% |
16% |
|
291 |
0.8% |
15% |
|
292 |
0.3% |
15% |
|
293 |
2% |
14% |
|
294 |
0.8% |
12% |
|
295 |
2% |
12% |
|
296 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
297 |
1.4% |
9% |
|
298 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
299 |
0.2% |
7% |
|
300 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
301 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
302 |
1.4% |
6% |
|
303 |
2% |
5% |
|
304 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
305 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
306 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
307 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
308 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
309 |
0.3% |
2% |
Last Result |
310 |
0% |
2% |
|
311 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
312 |
0% |
1.4% |
|
313 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
314 |
0.4% |
1.2% |
|
315 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
316 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
317 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
318 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
319 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
320 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
321 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
322 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
324 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
325 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
326 |
0% |
0.2% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
328 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
329 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
330 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
331 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
332 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
333 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
162 |
0% |
100% |
|
163 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
164 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
165 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
166 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
167 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
168 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
169 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
170 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
171 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
172 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
173 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
174 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
175 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
176 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
177 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
178 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
179 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
180 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
181 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
182 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
183 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
184 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
185 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
186 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
187 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
188 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
189 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
190 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
191 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
192 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
193 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
194 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
195 |
0% |
98.6% |
|
196 |
0.6% |
98.6% |
|
197 |
0% |
98% |
|
198 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
199 |
0% |
98% |
|
200 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
202 |
0% |
97% |
|
203 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
204 |
1.5% |
97% |
|
205 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
206 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
207 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
208 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
209 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
210 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
211 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
212 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
213 |
0.1% |
93% |
|
214 |
0.1% |
93% |
|
215 |
0.6% |
93% |
|
216 |
0.1% |
92% |
|
217 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
218 |
0.2% |
91% |
|
219 |
0.6% |
91% |
|
220 |
0% |
91% |
|
221 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
222 |
0.6% |
91% |
|
223 |
0.8% |
90% |
|
224 |
1.1% |
89% |
|
225 |
0.4% |
88% |
|
226 |
0.6% |
88% |
|
227 |
0.6% |
87% |
|
228 |
0.1% |
87% |
|
229 |
0.2% |
86% |
|
230 |
0.7% |
86% |
|
231 |
4% |
86% |
|
232 |
1.5% |
82% |
|
233 |
0.2% |
80% |
|
234 |
2% |
80% |
|
235 |
0.4% |
78% |
|
236 |
0.3% |
78% |
|
237 |
1.0% |
77% |
|
238 |
0.4% |
76% |
|
239 |
3% |
76% |
|
240 |
0.2% |
73% |
|
241 |
1.4% |
73% |
|
242 |
1.0% |
72% |
|
243 |
1.0% |
71% |
|
244 |
1.1% |
70% |
|
245 |
3% |
68% |
|
246 |
0.3% |
65% |
|
247 |
3% |
65% |
|
248 |
0.1% |
62% |
|
249 |
0.1% |
62% |
|
250 |
2% |
62% |
|
251 |
3% |
59% |
|
252 |
2% |
57% |
|
253 |
0.8% |
55% |
|
254 |
1.0% |
54% |
|
255 |
0.4% |
53% |
|
256 |
0.2% |
53% |
|
257 |
1.1% |
53% |
|
258 |
0.4% |
51% |
|
259 |
0.5% |
51% |
|
260 |
0.8% |
51% |
Median |
261 |
0.3% |
50% |
|
262 |
0.8% |
49% |
|
263 |
8% |
49% |
|
264 |
0.6% |
41% |
|
265 |
0.3% |
40% |
|
266 |
0.8% |
40% |
|
267 |
0.3% |
39% |
|
268 |
0.5% |
39% |
|
269 |
2% |
38% |
|
270 |
3% |
37% |
|
271 |
1.1% |
33% |
|
272 |
0.6% |
32% |
|
273 |
0.9% |
32% |
|
274 |
4% |
31% |
|
275 |
3% |
27% |
|
276 |
2% |
24% |
|
277 |
0.6% |
22% |
|
278 |
0.1% |
22% |
|
279 |
0.2% |
22% |
|
280 |
0.1% |
22% |
|
281 |
0.1% |
21% |
|
282 |
0.8% |
21% |
|
283 |
0.6% |
21% |
|
284 |
5% |
20% |
|
285 |
1.0% |
15% |
|
286 |
1.0% |
14% |
|
287 |
2% |
13% |
|
288 |
0.2% |
10% |
|
289 |
0.1% |
10% |
|
290 |
3% |
10% |
|
291 |
0.3% |
8% |
|
292 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
293 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
294 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
295 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
296 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
297 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
298 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
299 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
300 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
301 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
302 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
303 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
304 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
305 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
306 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
307 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
308 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
309 |
0% |
1.3% |
|
310 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
311 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
313 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
314 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
315 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
316 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
317 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
318 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
319 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
320 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
321 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
322 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
323 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
324 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
325 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
326 |
0% |
0.1% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
328 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
329 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
330 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
331 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Liberal Democrats – Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
179 |
0% |
100% |
|
180 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
181 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
182 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
183 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
184 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
185 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
186 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
187 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
188 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
189 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
190 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
191 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
192 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
193 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
194 |
0% |
98.5% |
|
195 |
0.3% |
98.5% |
|
196 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
197 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
198 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
199 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
200 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
201 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
202 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
203 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
204 |
1.4% |
96% |
|
205 |
4% |
94% |
|
206 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
207 |
3% |
90% |
|
208 |
0.1% |
87% |
|
209 |
1.4% |
87% |
|
210 |
0.7% |
85% |
|
211 |
0.6% |
85% |
|
212 |
3% |
84% |
|
213 |
0.8% |
82% |
|
214 |
0.4% |
81% |
|
215 |
0.5% |
80% |
|
216 |
5% |
80% |
|
217 |
3% |
74% |
|
218 |
0.7% |
71% |
|
219 |
1.4% |
70% |
|
220 |
1.1% |
69% |
|
221 |
0.8% |
68% |
|
222 |
2% |
67% |
|
223 |
3% |
65% |
|
224 |
4% |
62% |
|
225 |
1.0% |
58% |
|
226 |
4% |
57% |
|
227 |
1.3% |
53% |
|
228 |
0.5% |
52% |
|
229 |
2% |
51% |
|
230 |
1.1% |
49% |
Median |
231 |
2% |
48% |
|
232 |
3% |
46% |
|
233 |
0.4% |
43% |
|
234 |
0.3% |
43% |
|
235 |
0.3% |
43% |
|
236 |
0.8% |
42% |
|
237 |
0.8% |
41% |
|
238 |
4% |
41% |
|
239 |
4% |
36% |
|
240 |
2% |
33% |
|
241 |
2% |
31% |
|
242 |
8% |
28% |
|
243 |
0.3% |
20% |
|
244 |
4% |
20% |
|
245 |
0.4% |
16% |
|
246 |
0.4% |
16% |
|
247 |
0.2% |
16% |
|
248 |
2% |
15% |
|
249 |
0.2% |
14% |
|
250 |
0.7% |
13% |
|
251 |
2% |
13% |
|
252 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
253 |
1.0% |
10% |
|
254 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
255 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
257 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
258 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
259 |
1.4% |
7% |
|
260 |
1.2% |
6% |
|
261 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
262 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
263 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
264 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
265 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
266 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
267 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
268 |
0% |
2% |
|
269 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
271 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
272 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
273 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
275 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
276 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
277 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
278 |
0% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
279 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
280 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
281 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
282 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
283 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
284 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
285 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
286 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
287 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
288 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
289 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
290 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
291 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
292 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
119 |
0% |
100% |
|
120 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
121 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
122 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
123 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
124 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
125 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
126 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
127 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
128 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
129 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
130 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
131 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
132 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
133 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
134 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
135 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
136 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
137 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
138 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
139 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
140 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
141 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
143 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
144 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
145 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
146 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
147 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
148 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
149 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
150 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
151 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
152 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
153 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
154 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
155 |
0% |
98% |
|
156 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
157 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
159 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
160 |
2% |
97% |
|
161 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
162 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
163 |
0% |
96% |
|
164 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
165 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
166 |
0% |
95% |
|
167 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
168 |
0% |
94% |
|
169 |
1.0% |
94% |
|
170 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
171 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
172 |
0.1% |
93% |
|
173 |
0.1% |
93% |
|
174 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
175 |
0.2% |
92% |
|
176 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
177 |
0.4% |
91% |
|
178 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
179 |
0.9% |
90% |
|
180 |
1.1% |
90% |
|
181 |
0.3% |
88% |
|
182 |
0.2% |
88% |
|
183 |
0.9% |
88% |
|
184 |
0.7% |
87% |
|
185 |
0.8% |
86% |
|
186 |
0% |
86% |
|
187 |
3% |
86% |
|
188 |
0.5% |
82% |
|
189 |
0.8% |
82% |
|
190 |
2% |
81% |
|
191 |
1.1% |
79% |
|
192 |
0.5% |
77% |
|
193 |
0.2% |
77% |
|
194 |
0.1% |
77% |
|
195 |
2% |
77% |
|
196 |
2% |
74% |
|
197 |
0.4% |
73% |
|
198 |
0.3% |
72% |
|
199 |
3% |
72% |
|
200 |
0.3% |
69% |
|
201 |
0.7% |
69% |
|
202 |
0.8% |
68% |
|
203 |
3% |
67% |
|
204 |
2% |
64% |
|
205 |
0.3% |
62% |
|
206 |
3% |
62% |
|
207 |
0.7% |
59% |
|
208 |
0.2% |
58% |
|
209 |
2% |
58% |
|
210 |
0.6% |
56% |
|
211 |
3% |
56% |
|
212 |
0.7% |
53% |
|
213 |
0.2% |
52% |
|
214 |
0.6% |
52% |
|
215 |
0.3% |
52% |
|
216 |
0.8% |
51% |
|
217 |
0.5% |
51% |
Median |
218 |
0.6% |
50% |
|
219 |
0.3% |
50% |
|
220 |
8% |
49% |
|
221 |
0.6% |
41% |
|
222 |
0.7% |
40% |
|
223 |
0.4% |
40% |
|
224 |
1.3% |
39% |
|
225 |
1.5% |
38% |
|
226 |
0.9% |
37% |
|
227 |
3% |
36% |
|
228 |
4% |
33% |
|
229 |
0.9% |
30% |
|
230 |
0.3% |
29% |
|
231 |
0.5% |
28% |
|
232 |
4% |
28% |
|
233 |
1.4% |
24% |
|
234 |
0.2% |
23% |
|
235 |
0.4% |
23% |
|
236 |
0.6% |
22% |
|
237 |
0.2% |
22% |
|
238 |
2% |
22% |
|
239 |
3% |
20% |
|
240 |
2% |
17% |
|
241 |
0.8% |
15% |
|
242 |
0.2% |
14% |
|
243 |
3% |
14% |
|
244 |
0.3% |
11% |
|
245 |
0.4% |
11% |
|
246 |
0.3% |
10% |
|
247 |
0.2% |
10% |
|
248 |
2% |
10% |
|
249 |
0.8% |
8% |
|
250 |
0.2% |
7% |
|
251 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
252 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
253 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
254 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
255 |
1.0% |
5% |
|
256 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
257 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
258 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
259 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
260 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
261 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
262 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
263 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
264 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
265 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
266 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
267 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
268 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
269 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
270 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
272 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
273 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
275 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
276 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
277 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
278 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
279 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
280 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
281 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
282 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
283 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
284 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
285 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
286 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
287 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
288 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
289 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Liberal Democrats – Labour Party – Change UK
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
172 |
0% |
100% |
|
173 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
174 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
175 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
176 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
177 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
178 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
179 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
180 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
181 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
182 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
183 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
184 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
185 |
0.4% |
98.9% |
|
186 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
187 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
188 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
189 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
190 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
191 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
192 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
193 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
194 |
1.4% |
96% |
|
195 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
196 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
197 |
1.0% |
95% |
|
198 |
4% |
94% |
|
199 |
0.2% |
89% |
|
200 |
2% |
89% |
|
201 |
0.8% |
87% |
|
202 |
1.0% |
86% |
|
203 |
2% |
85% |
|
204 |
3% |
83% |
|
205 |
2% |
80% |
|
206 |
0.3% |
79% |
|
207 |
1.1% |
78% |
|
208 |
4% |
77% |
|
209 |
3% |
73% |
|
210 |
0.5% |
71% |
|
211 |
1.3% |
70% |
|
212 |
1.4% |
69% |
|
213 |
1.2% |
67% |
|
214 |
0.9% |
66% |
|
215 |
3% |
65% |
|
216 |
5% |
62% |
|
217 |
0.6% |
57% |
|
218 |
3% |
57% |
|
219 |
1.0% |
54% |
|
220 |
1.3% |
53% |
|
221 |
0.9% |
51% |
|
222 |
2% |
51% |
Median |
223 |
2% |
48% |
|
224 |
3% |
46% |
|
225 |
1.1% |
43% |
|
226 |
0.5% |
42% |
|
227 |
1.0% |
42% |
|
228 |
0.3% |
41% |
|
229 |
0.5% |
40% |
|
230 |
0.9% |
40% |
|
231 |
5% |
39% |
|
232 |
5% |
34% |
|
233 |
0.9% |
29% |
|
234 |
10% |
28% |
|
235 |
0.3% |
18% |
|
236 |
0.3% |
18% |
|
237 |
2% |
18% |
|
238 |
0.6% |
16% |
|
239 |
0.8% |
15% |
|
240 |
0.5% |
15% |
|
241 |
1.0% |
14% |
|
242 |
0.9% |
13% |
|
243 |
3% |
12% |
|
244 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
245 |
0.4% |
9% |
|
246 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
247 |
0.6% |
8% |
|
248 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
249 |
0.2% |
7% |
|
250 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
251 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
252 |
2% |
6% |
|
253 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
254 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
255 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
256 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
257 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
258 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
259 |
0% |
2% |
|
260 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
261 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
262 |
0% |
1.4% |
|
263 |
0.6% |
1.4% |
|
264 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
265 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
266 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
267 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
268 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
269 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
270 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
272 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
273 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
275 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
276 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
277 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
278 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
279 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
280 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
281 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
282 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
283 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liberal Democrats – Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
172 |
0% |
100% |
|
173 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
174 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
175 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
176 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
177 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
178 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
179 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
180 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
181 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
182 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
183 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
184 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
185 |
0.4% |
98.9% |
|
186 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
187 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
188 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
189 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
190 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
191 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
192 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
193 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
194 |
1.4% |
96% |
|
195 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
196 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
197 |
1.0% |
95% |
|
198 |
4% |
94% |
|
199 |
0.2% |
89% |
|
200 |
2% |
89% |
|
201 |
0.8% |
87% |
|
202 |
1.0% |
86% |
|
203 |
2% |
85% |
|
204 |
3% |
83% |
|
205 |
2% |
80% |
|
206 |
0.3% |
79% |
|
207 |
1.1% |
78% |
|
208 |
4% |
77% |
|
209 |
3% |
73% |
|
210 |
0.5% |
71% |
|
211 |
1.3% |
70% |
|
212 |
1.4% |
69% |
|
213 |
1.2% |
67% |
|
214 |
0.9% |
66% |
|
215 |
3% |
65% |
|
216 |
5% |
62% |
|
217 |
0.6% |
57% |
|
218 |
3% |
57% |
|
219 |
1.0% |
54% |
|
220 |
1.3% |
53% |
|
221 |
0.9% |
51% |
|
222 |
2% |
51% |
Median |
223 |
2% |
48% |
|
224 |
3% |
46% |
|
225 |
1.1% |
43% |
|
226 |
0.5% |
42% |
|
227 |
1.0% |
42% |
|
228 |
0.3% |
41% |
|
229 |
0.5% |
40% |
|
230 |
0.9% |
40% |
|
231 |
5% |
39% |
|
232 |
5% |
34% |
|
233 |
0.9% |
29% |
|
234 |
10% |
28% |
|
235 |
0.3% |
18% |
|
236 |
0.3% |
18% |
|
237 |
2% |
18% |
|
238 |
0.6% |
16% |
|
239 |
0.8% |
15% |
|
240 |
0.5% |
15% |
|
241 |
1.0% |
14% |
|
242 |
0.9% |
13% |
|
243 |
3% |
12% |
|
244 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
245 |
0.4% |
9% |
|
246 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
247 |
0.6% |
8% |
|
248 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
249 |
0.2% |
7% |
|
250 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
251 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
252 |
2% |
6% |
|
253 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
254 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
255 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
256 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
257 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
258 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
259 |
0% |
2% |
|
260 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
261 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
262 |
0% |
1.4% |
|
263 |
0.6% |
1.4% |
|
264 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
265 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
266 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
267 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
268 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
269 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
270 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
272 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
273 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
275 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
276 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
277 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
278 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
279 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
280 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
281 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
282 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
283 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Change UK
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
111 |
0% |
100% |
|
112 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
113 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
114 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
115 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
116 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
117 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
118 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
119 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
120 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
121 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
122 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
123 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
124 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
125 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
126 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
127 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
128 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
129 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
130 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
131 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
132 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
133 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
134 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
135 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
136 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
137 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
138 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
139 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
140 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
141 |
0% |
98.9% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
143 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
144 |
0.4% |
98.6% |
|
145 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
146 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
147 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
148 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
149 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
150 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
152 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
153 |
1.5% |
97% |
|
154 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
155 |
0% |
95% |
|
156 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
157 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
158 |
0% |
94% |
|
159 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
160 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
161 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
162 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
163 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
164 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
165 |
0.1% |
92% |
|
166 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
167 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
168 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
169 |
0.6% |
91% |
|
170 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
171 |
0.9% |
91% |
|
172 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
173 |
0.8% |
89% |
|
174 |
1.0% |
88% |
|
175 |
0.2% |
87% |
|
176 |
0.2% |
87% |
|
177 |
0.3% |
87% |
|
178 |
0.7% |
86% |
|
179 |
4% |
86% |
|
180 |
0.3% |
82% |
|
181 |
1.2% |
82% |
|
182 |
0.6% |
81% |
|
183 |
2% |
80% |
|
184 |
0.2% |
78% |
|
185 |
1.3% |
78% |
|
186 |
0.3% |
76% |
|
187 |
2% |
76% |
|
188 |
0.6% |
74% |
|
189 |
0.1% |
73% |
|
190 |
2% |
73% |
|
191 |
0.5% |
71% |
|
192 |
2% |
71% |
|
193 |
0.6% |
69% |
|
194 |
0.4% |
68% |
|
195 |
6% |
68% |
|
196 |
0.4% |
62% |
|
197 |
0.1% |
62% |
|
198 |
2% |
62% |
|
199 |
2% |
60% |
|
200 |
0.5% |
57% |
|
201 |
0.9% |
57% |
|
202 |
2% |
56% |
|
203 |
0.7% |
54% |
|
204 |
0.6% |
53% |
|
205 |
0.4% |
52% |
|
206 |
0.6% |
52% |
|
207 |
0.5% |
51% |
|
208 |
0.2% |
51% |
|
209 |
0.9% |
51% |
Median |
210 |
0.3% |
50% |
|
211 |
0.3% |
49% |
|
212 |
8% |
49% |
|
213 |
0.5% |
41% |
|
214 |
0.4% |
40% |
|
215 |
0.9% |
40% |
|
216 |
0.4% |
39% |
|
217 |
0.9% |
39% |
|
218 |
1.3% |
38% |
|
219 |
4% |
36% |
|
220 |
1.0% |
33% |
|
221 |
0.5% |
32% |
|
222 |
4% |
31% |
|
223 |
0.5% |
28% |
|
224 |
4% |
27% |
|
225 |
0.7% |
23% |
|
226 |
0.4% |
22% |
|
227 |
0.2% |
22% |
|
228 |
0.2% |
22% |
|
229 |
0.1% |
22% |
|
230 |
0.2% |
21% |
|
231 |
0.8% |
21% |
|
232 |
5% |
20% |
|
233 |
2% |
16% |
|
234 |
0.4% |
14% |
|
235 |
3% |
13% |
|
236 |
3% |
11% |
|
237 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
238 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
239 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
240 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
241 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
242 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
243 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
244 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
245 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
246 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
247 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
248 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
249 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
250 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
251 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
252 |
0% |
3% |
|
253 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
254 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
255 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
257 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
258 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
259 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
260 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
261 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
262 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
263 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
264 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
265 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
266 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
267 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
268 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
269 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
270 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
271 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
272 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
273 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
275 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
276 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
277 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
278 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
279 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
280 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
111 |
0% |
100% |
|
112 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
113 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
114 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
115 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
116 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
117 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
118 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
119 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
120 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
121 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
122 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
123 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
124 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
125 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
126 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
127 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
128 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
129 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
130 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
131 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
132 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
133 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
134 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
135 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
136 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
137 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
138 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
139 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
140 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
141 |
0% |
98.9% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
143 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
144 |
0.4% |
98.6% |
|
145 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
146 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
147 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
148 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
149 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
150 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
152 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
153 |
1.5% |
97% |
|
154 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
155 |
0% |
95% |
|
156 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
157 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
158 |
0% |
94% |
|
159 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
160 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
161 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
162 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
163 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
164 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
165 |
0.1% |
92% |
|
166 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
167 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
168 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
169 |
0.6% |
91% |
|
170 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
171 |
0.9% |
91% |
|
172 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
173 |
0.8% |
89% |
|
174 |
1.0% |
88% |
|
175 |
0.2% |
87% |
|
176 |
0.2% |
87% |
|
177 |
0.3% |
87% |
|
178 |
0.7% |
86% |
|
179 |
4% |
86% |
|
180 |
0.3% |
82% |
|
181 |
1.2% |
82% |
|
182 |
0.6% |
81% |
|
183 |
2% |
80% |
|
184 |
0.2% |
78% |
|
185 |
1.3% |
78% |
|
186 |
0.3% |
76% |
|
187 |
2% |
76% |
|
188 |
0.6% |
74% |
|
189 |
0.1% |
73% |
|
190 |
2% |
73% |
|
191 |
0.5% |
71% |
|
192 |
2% |
71% |
|
193 |
0.6% |
69% |
|
194 |
0.4% |
68% |
|
195 |
6% |
68% |
|
196 |
0.4% |
62% |
|
197 |
0.1% |
62% |
|
198 |
2% |
62% |
|
199 |
2% |
60% |
|
200 |
0.5% |
57% |
|
201 |
0.9% |
57% |
|
202 |
2% |
56% |
|
203 |
0.7% |
54% |
|
204 |
0.6% |
53% |
|
205 |
0.4% |
52% |
|
206 |
0.6% |
52% |
|
207 |
0.5% |
51% |
|
208 |
0.2% |
51% |
|
209 |
0.9% |
51% |
Median |
210 |
0.3% |
50% |
|
211 |
0.3% |
49% |
|
212 |
8% |
49% |
|
213 |
0.5% |
41% |
|
214 |
0.4% |
40% |
|
215 |
0.9% |
40% |
|
216 |
0.4% |
39% |
|
217 |
0.9% |
39% |
|
218 |
1.3% |
38% |
|
219 |
4% |
36% |
|
220 |
1.0% |
33% |
|
221 |
0.5% |
32% |
|
222 |
4% |
31% |
|
223 |
0.5% |
28% |
|
224 |
4% |
27% |
|
225 |
0.7% |
23% |
|
226 |
0.4% |
22% |
|
227 |
0.2% |
22% |
|
228 |
0.2% |
22% |
|
229 |
0.1% |
22% |
|
230 |
0.2% |
21% |
|
231 |
0.8% |
21% |
|
232 |
5% |
20% |
|
233 |
2% |
16% |
|
234 |
0.4% |
14% |
|
235 |
3% |
13% |
|
236 |
3% |
11% |
|
237 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
238 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
239 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
240 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
241 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
242 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
243 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
244 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
245 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
246 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
247 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
248 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
249 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
250 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
251 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
252 |
0% |
3% |
|
253 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
254 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
255 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
257 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
258 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
259 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
260 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
261 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
262 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
263 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
264 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
265 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
266 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
267 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
268 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
269 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
270 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
271 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
272 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
273 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
275 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
276 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
277 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
278 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
279 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
280 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
137 |
0% |
100% |
|
138 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
139 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
140 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
141 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
142 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
143 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
144 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
145 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
146 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
147 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
148 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
149 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
150 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
151 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
152 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
153 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
154 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
155 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
156 |
2% |
96% |
|
157 |
4% |
94% |
|
158 |
4% |
90% |
|
159 |
2% |
86% |
|
160 |
3% |
85% |
|
161 |
1.0% |
82% |
|
162 |
2% |
81% |
|
163 |
2% |
79% |
|
164 |
0.6% |
77% |
|
165 |
0.8% |
76% |
|
166 |
1.3% |
75% |
|
167 |
2% |
74% |
|
168 |
0.6% |
72% |
|
169 |
4% |
71% |
|
170 |
1.3% |
68% |
|
171 |
5% |
66% |
|
172 |
2% |
62% |
|
173 |
6% |
60% |
|
174 |
3% |
54% |
|
175 |
0.9% |
51% |
Median |
176 |
0.9% |
50% |
|
177 |
4% |
49% |
|
178 |
1.3% |
46% |
|
179 |
0.9% |
44% |
|
180 |
3% |
43% |
|
181 |
2% |
41% |
|
182 |
1.0% |
39% |
|
183 |
0.7% |
38% |
|
184 |
0.7% |
37% |
|
185 |
4% |
36% |
|
186 |
2% |
32% |
|
187 |
8% |
30% |
|
188 |
3% |
22% |
|
189 |
4% |
18% |
|
190 |
2% |
14% |
|
191 |
0.3% |
12% |
|
192 |
0.2% |
12% |
|
193 |
1.3% |
12% |
|
194 |
1.1% |
10% |
|
195 |
0.1% |
9% |
|
196 |
2% |
9% |
|
197 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
198 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
199 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
200 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
202 |
2% |
5% |
|
203 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
204 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
205 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
206 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
207 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
208 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
209 |
0% |
1.3% |
|
210 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
211 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
212 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
213 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
214 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
215 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
216 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
217 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
218 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
219 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
220 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
221 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
222 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
223 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
224 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
225 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
226 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
227 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
228 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
229 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
|
267 |
0% |
0% |
|
268 |
0% |
0% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
|
275 |
0% |
0% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
|
279 |
0% |
0% |
|
280 |
0% |
0% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
129 |
0% |
100% |
|
130 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
131 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
132 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
133 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
134 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
135 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
136 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
137 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
138 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
139 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
140 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
141 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
142 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
143 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
144 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
145 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
146 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
147 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
148 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
149 |
4% |
95% |
|
150 |
0.7% |
91% |
|
151 |
5% |
90% |
|
152 |
1.4% |
85% |
|
153 |
1.3% |
84% |
|
154 |
3% |
82% |
|
155 |
0.7% |
79% |
|
156 |
5% |
78% |
|
157 |
0.5% |
73% |
|
158 |
1.0% |
73% |
|
159 |
0.5% |
72% |
|
160 |
3% |
71% |
|
161 |
1.3% |
68% |
|
162 |
0.9% |
67% |
|
163 |
5% |
66% |
|
164 |
0.9% |
61% |
|
165 |
4% |
60% |
|
166 |
5% |
56% |
|
167 |
1.4% |
51% |
Median |
168 |
1.2% |
49% |
|
169 |
1.3% |
48% |
|
170 |
2% |
47% |
|
171 |
4% |
45% |
|
172 |
0.8% |
42% |
|
173 |
1.4% |
41% |
|
174 |
4% |
39% |
|
175 |
0.6% |
36% |
|
176 |
1.2% |
35% |
|
177 |
5% |
34% |
|
178 |
0.3% |
29% |
|
179 |
8% |
29% |
|
180 |
2% |
21% |
|
181 |
3% |
19% |
|
182 |
3% |
16% |
|
183 |
1.1% |
12% |
|
184 |
0.5% |
11% |
|
185 |
1.1% |
11% |
|
186 |
0.8% |
10% |
|
187 |
1.0% |
9% |
|
188 |
1.4% |
8% |
|
189 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
190 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
191 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
192 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
193 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
194 |
1.0% |
5% |
|
195 |
1.4% |
4% |
|
196 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
197 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
198 |
0% |
2% |
|
199 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
200 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
201 |
0% |
1.3% |
|
202 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
203 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
204 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
205 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
206 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
207 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
208 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
209 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
210 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
211 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
212 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
213 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
214 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
215 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
216 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
217 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
218 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
219 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
220 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
221 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
222 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
223 |
0% |
0% |
|
224 |
0% |
0% |
|
225 |
0% |
0% |
|
226 |
0% |
0% |
|
227 |
0% |
0% |
|
228 |
0% |
0% |
|
229 |
0% |
0% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
|
267 |
0% |
0% |
|
268 |
0% |
0% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
|
275 |
0% |
0% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
|
279 |
0% |
0% |
|
280 |
0% |
0% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
86 |
0% |
100% |
|
87 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
88 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
89 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
90 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
91 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
92 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
93 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
94 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
95 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
96 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
97 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
98 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
99 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
100 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
101 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
102 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
103 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
104 |
1.5% |
97% |
|
105 |
2% |
95% |
|
106 |
6% |
93% |
|
107 |
1.3% |
87% |
|
108 |
3% |
86% |
|
109 |
1.2% |
83% |
|
110 |
0.3% |
81% |
|
111 |
2% |
81% |
|
112 |
2% |
79% |
|
113 |
1.5% |
77% |
|
114 |
0.8% |
76% |
|
115 |
1.0% |
75% |
|
116 |
2% |
74% |
|
117 |
3% |
72% |
|
118 |
1.1% |
69% |
|
119 |
4% |
68% |
|
120 |
2% |
63% |
|
121 |
5% |
62% |
|
122 |
5% |
57% |
|
123 |
0.6% |
51% |
|
124 |
0.8% |
51% |
Median |
125 |
0.6% |
50% |
|
126 |
5% |
49% |
|
127 |
0.5% |
44% |
|
128 |
3% |
44% |
|
129 |
1.2% |
41% |
|
130 |
2% |
40% |
|
131 |
1.3% |
38% |
|
132 |
0.7% |
37% |
|
133 |
4% |
36% |
|
134 |
2% |
33% |
|
135 |
1.4% |
31% |
|
136 |
11% |
29% |
|
137 |
4% |
19% |
|
138 |
2% |
15% |
|
139 |
0.6% |
13% |
|
140 |
0.7% |
12% |
|
141 |
0.9% |
11% |
|
142 |
0.7% |
11% |
|
143 |
0.8% |
10% |
|
144 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
145 |
2% |
9% |
|
146 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
147 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
148 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
149 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
150 |
0% |
5% |
|
151 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
152 |
2% |
5% |
|
153 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
154 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
156 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
157 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
158 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
159 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
160 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
161 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
162 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
163 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
164 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
165 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
166 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
167 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
168 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
169 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
170 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
171 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
172 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
173 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
174 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
175 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
176 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
177 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
178 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
179 |
0% |
0% |
|
180 |
0% |
0% |
|
181 |
0% |
0% |
|
182 |
0% |
0% |
|
183 |
0% |
0% |
|
184 |
0% |
0% |
|
185 |
0% |
0% |
|
186 |
0% |
0% |
|
187 |
0% |
0% |
|
188 |
0% |
0% |
|
189 |
0% |
0% |
|
190 |
0% |
0% |
|
191 |
0% |
0% |
|
192 |
0% |
0% |
|
193 |
0% |
0% |
|
194 |
0% |
0% |
|
195 |
0% |
0% |
|
196 |
0% |
0% |
|
197 |
0% |
0% |
|
198 |
0% |
0% |
|
199 |
0% |
0% |
|
200 |
0% |
0% |
|
201 |
0% |
0% |
|
202 |
0% |
0% |
|
203 |
0% |
0% |
|
204 |
0% |
0% |
|
205 |
0% |
0% |
|
206 |
0% |
0% |
|
207 |
0% |
0% |
|
208 |
0% |
0% |
|
209 |
0% |
0% |
|
210 |
0% |
0% |
|
211 |
0% |
0% |
|
212 |
0% |
0% |
|
213 |
0% |
0% |
|
214 |
0% |
0% |
|
215 |
0% |
0% |
|
216 |
0% |
0% |
|
217 |
0% |
0% |
|
218 |
0% |
0% |
|
219 |
0% |
0% |
|
220 |
0% |
0% |
|
221 |
0% |
0% |
|
222 |
0% |
0% |
|
223 |
0% |
0% |
|
224 |
0% |
0% |
|
225 |
0% |
0% |
|
226 |
0% |
0% |
|
227 |
0% |
0% |
|
228 |
0% |
0% |
|
229 |
0% |
0% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Change UK
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
78 |
0% |
100% |
|
79 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
80 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
81 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
82 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
83 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
84 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
85 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
86 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
87 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
88 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
89 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
90 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
91 |
0.4% |
98.8% |
|
92 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
93 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
94 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
95 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
96 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
97 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
98 |
4% |
95% |
|
99 |
5% |
91% |
|
100 |
1.4% |
86% |
|
101 |
3% |
85% |
|
102 |
0.9% |
82% |
|
103 |
2% |
81% |
|
104 |
4% |
79% |
|
105 |
2% |
75% |
|
106 |
0.6% |
73% |
|
107 |
0.6% |
72% |
|
108 |
1.0% |
72% |
|
109 |
3% |
71% |
|
110 |
2% |
68% |
|
111 |
0.9% |
66% |
|
112 |
4% |
65% |
|
113 |
5% |
62% |
|
114 |
5% |
57% |
|
115 |
1.3% |
52% |
|
116 |
2% |
50% |
Median |
117 |
1.2% |
49% |
|
118 |
1.2% |
48% |
|
119 |
4% |
46% |
|
120 |
2% |
43% |
|
121 |
0.5% |
41% |
|
122 |
2% |
40% |
|
123 |
3% |
38% |
|
124 |
0.5% |
35% |
|
125 |
4% |
35% |
|
126 |
1.3% |
30% |
|
127 |
0.6% |
29% |
|
128 |
9% |
28% |
|
129 |
2% |
19% |
|
130 |
4% |
17% |
|
131 |
1.5% |
13% |
|
132 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
133 |
1.0% |
11% |
|
134 |
1.0% |
10% |
|
135 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
136 |
1.0% |
9% |
|
137 |
2% |
8% |
|
138 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
139 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
140 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
141 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
142 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
143 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
144 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
145 |
2% |
4% |
|
146 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
147 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
148 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
149 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
150 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
151 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
152 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
153 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
154 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
155 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
157 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
158 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
159 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
160 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
161 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
162 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
163 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
164 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
165 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
166 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
167 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
168 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
169 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
170 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
171 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
172 |
0% |
0% |
|
173 |
0% |
0% |
|
174 |
0% |
0% |
|
175 |
0% |
0% |
|
176 |
0% |
0% |
|
177 |
0% |
0% |
|
178 |
0% |
0% |
|
179 |
0% |
0% |
|
180 |
0% |
0% |
|
181 |
0% |
0% |
|
182 |
0% |
0% |
|
183 |
0% |
0% |
|
184 |
0% |
0% |
|
185 |
0% |
0% |
|
186 |
0% |
0% |
|
187 |
0% |
0% |
|
188 |
0% |
0% |
|
189 |
0% |
0% |
|
190 |
0% |
0% |
|
191 |
0% |
0% |
|
192 |
0% |
0% |
|
193 |
0% |
0% |
|
194 |
0% |
0% |
|
195 |
0% |
0% |
|
196 |
0% |
0% |
|
197 |
0% |
0% |
|
198 |
0% |
0% |
|
199 |
0% |
0% |
|
200 |
0% |
0% |
|
201 |
0% |
0% |
|
202 |
0% |
0% |
|
203 |
0% |
0% |
|
204 |
0% |
0% |
|
205 |
0% |
0% |
|
206 |
0% |
0% |
|
207 |
0% |
0% |
|
208 |
0% |
0% |
|
209 |
0% |
0% |
|
210 |
0% |
0% |
|
211 |
0% |
0% |
|
212 |
0% |
0% |
|
213 |
0% |
0% |
|
214 |
0% |
0% |
|
215 |
0% |
0% |
|
216 |
0% |
0% |
|
217 |
0% |
0% |
|
218 |
0% |
0% |
|
219 |
0% |
0% |
|
220 |
0% |
0% |
|
221 |
0% |
0% |
|
222 |
0% |
0% |
|
223 |
0% |
0% |
|
224 |
0% |
0% |
|
225 |
0% |
0% |
|
226 |
0% |
0% |
|
227 |
0% |
0% |
|
228 |
0% |
0% |
|
229 |
0% |
0% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
78 |
0% |
100% |
|
79 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
80 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
81 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
82 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
83 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
84 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
85 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
86 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
87 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
88 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
89 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
90 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
91 |
0.4% |
98.8% |
|
92 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
93 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
94 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
95 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
96 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
97 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
98 |
4% |
95% |
|
99 |
5% |
91% |
|
100 |
1.4% |
86% |
|
101 |
3% |
85% |
|
102 |
0.9% |
82% |
|
103 |
2% |
81% |
|
104 |
4% |
79% |
|
105 |
2% |
75% |
|
106 |
0.6% |
73% |
|
107 |
0.6% |
72% |
|
108 |
1.0% |
72% |
|
109 |
3% |
71% |
|
110 |
2% |
68% |
|
111 |
0.9% |
66% |
|
112 |
4% |
65% |
|
113 |
5% |
62% |
|
114 |
5% |
57% |
|
115 |
1.3% |
52% |
|
116 |
2% |
50% |
Median |
117 |
1.2% |
49% |
|
118 |
1.2% |
48% |
|
119 |
4% |
46% |
|
120 |
2% |
43% |
|
121 |
0.5% |
41% |
|
122 |
2% |
40% |
|
123 |
3% |
38% |
|
124 |
0.5% |
35% |
|
125 |
4% |
35% |
|
126 |
1.3% |
30% |
|
127 |
0.6% |
29% |
|
128 |
9% |
28% |
|
129 |
2% |
19% |
|
130 |
4% |
17% |
|
131 |
1.5% |
13% |
|
132 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
133 |
1.0% |
11% |
|
134 |
1.0% |
10% |
|
135 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
136 |
1.0% |
9% |
|
137 |
2% |
8% |
|
138 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
139 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
140 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
141 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
142 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
143 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
144 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
145 |
2% |
4% |
|
146 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
147 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
148 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
149 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
150 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
151 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
152 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
153 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
154 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
155 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
157 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
158 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
159 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
160 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
161 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
162 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
163 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
164 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
165 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
166 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
167 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
168 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
169 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
170 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
171 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
172 |
0% |
0% |
|
173 |
0% |
0% |
|
174 |
0% |
0% |
|
175 |
0% |
0% |
|
176 |
0% |
0% |
|
177 |
0% |
0% |
|
178 |
0% |
0% |
|
179 |
0% |
0% |
|
180 |
0% |
0% |
|
181 |
0% |
0% |
|
182 |
0% |
0% |
|
183 |
0% |
0% |
|
184 |
0% |
0% |
|
185 |
0% |
0% |
|
186 |
0% |
0% |
|
187 |
0% |
0% |
|
188 |
0% |
0% |
|
189 |
0% |
0% |
|
190 |
0% |
0% |
|
191 |
0% |
0% |
|
192 |
0% |
0% |
|
193 |
0% |
0% |
|
194 |
0% |
0% |
|
195 |
0% |
0% |
|
196 |
0% |
0% |
|
197 |
0% |
0% |
|
198 |
0% |
0% |
|
199 |
0% |
0% |
|
200 |
0% |
0% |
|
201 |
0% |
0% |
|
202 |
0% |
0% |
|
203 |
0% |
0% |
|
204 |
0% |
0% |
|
205 |
0% |
0% |
|
206 |
0% |
0% |
|
207 |
0% |
0% |
|
208 |
0% |
0% |
|
209 |
0% |
0% |
|
210 |
0% |
0% |
|
211 |
0% |
0% |
|
212 |
0% |
0% |
|
213 |
0% |
0% |
|
214 |
0% |
0% |
|
215 |
0% |
0% |
|
216 |
0% |
0% |
|
217 |
0% |
0% |
|
218 |
0% |
0% |
|
219 |
0% |
0% |
|
220 |
0% |
0% |
|
221 |
0% |
0% |
|
222 |
0% |
0% |
|
223 |
0% |
0% |
|
224 |
0% |
0% |
|
225 |
0% |
0% |
|
226 |
0% |
0% |
|
227 |
0% |
0% |
|
228 |
0% |
0% |
|
229 |
0% |
0% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: YouGov
- Commissioner(s): The Times
- Fieldwork period: 23–24 July 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1715
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.84%