Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Sunday Times, 25–26 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 30.8% 29.4–32.3% 29.0–32.7% 28.7–33.1% 28.0–33.8%
Labour Party 40.0% 20.9% 19.7–22.2% 19.3–22.6% 19.0–22.9% 18.5–23.6%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 19.9% 18.7–21.2% 18.4–21.6% 18.1–21.9% 17.5–22.5%
Brexit Party 0.0% 13.0% 12.0–14.1% 11.7–14.4% 11.4–14.7% 11.0–15.2%
Green Party 1.6% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.8–9.3% 6.4–9.8%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.9% 4.3–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.1% 3.7–6.5%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 303 285–324 285–325 281–326 267–337
Labour Party 262 138 117–157 111–164 111–170 97–172
Liberal Democrats 12 75 70–80 68–83 65–84 60–86
Brexit Party 0 48 41–62 35–69 32–72 26–79
Green Party 1 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–7
Scottish National Party 35 54 52–54 51–54 51–54 50–54
Plaid Cymru 4 9 4–11 4–12 4–12 4–14
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.8%  
266 0.2% 99.8%  
267 0.6% 99.7%  
268 0.2% 99.0%  
269 0% 98.9%  
270 0.1% 98.9%  
271 0% 98.8%  
272 0.1% 98.8%  
273 0% 98.7%  
274 0.1% 98.6%  
275 0.5% 98.6%  
276 0.3% 98%  
277 0% 98%  
278 0.1% 98%  
279 0.1% 98%  
280 0% 98%  
281 0.1% 98%  
282 0.3% 97%  
283 0.1% 97%  
284 0.2% 97%  
285 8% 97%  
286 3% 89%  
287 2% 86%  
288 0.2% 84%  
289 4% 84%  
290 2% 80%  
291 1.5% 78%  
292 5% 76%  
293 0.8% 71%  
294 0.6% 70%  
295 2% 70%  
296 3% 68%  
297 4% 65%  
298 2% 60%  
299 5% 58%  
300 0.7% 54%  
301 1.1% 53%  
302 0.9% 52%  
303 2% 51% Median
304 1.1% 48%  
305 11% 47%  
306 2% 36%  
307 2% 35%  
308 0.2% 33%  
309 14% 33%  
310 0.4% 18%  
311 0.7% 18%  
312 0.2% 17%  
313 2% 17%  
314 0.3% 15%  
315 0.1% 15%  
316 2% 15%  
317 0.1% 13% Last Result
318 0.4% 13%  
319 0.7% 12%  
320 0.4% 11%  
321 0.4% 11%  
322 0.5% 11%  
323 0.2% 10%  
324 0.1% 10%  
325 6% 10%  
326 2% 4% Majority
327 0% 2%  
328 0.3% 2%  
329 0.5% 1.5%  
330 0% 0.9%  
331 0.1% 0.9%  
332 0.1% 0.8%  
333 0.1% 0.7%  
334 0.1% 0.7%  
335 0% 0.6%  
336 0% 0.6%  
337 0.2% 0.6%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0% 0.4%  
340 0% 0.3%  
341 0% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0.1% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.7%  
94 0% 99.7%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.1% 99.6%  
97 0.1% 99.6%  
98 0.1% 99.5%  
99 0.7% 99.4%  
100 0.1% 98.7%  
101 0.1% 98.6%  
102 0% 98.6%  
103 0% 98.5%  
104 0.1% 98.5%  
105 0% 98%  
106 0.1% 98%  
107 0.1% 98%  
108 0.1% 98%  
109 0% 98%  
110 0.2% 98%  
111 6% 98%  
112 0.3% 92%  
113 0.5% 92%  
114 0.3% 91%  
115 0.2% 91%  
116 0.1% 91%  
117 1.3% 91%  
118 0.3% 89%  
119 2% 89%  
120 0.3% 87%  
121 0.5% 87%  
122 0.2% 86%  
123 0.1% 86%  
124 0.5% 86%  
125 0.3% 85%  
126 0.7% 85%  
127 0.7% 84%  
128 2% 84%  
129 3% 81%  
130 0.4% 79%  
131 4% 78%  
132 0.3% 74%  
133 1.2% 73%  
134 2% 72%  
135 0.6% 70%  
136 2% 70%  
137 17% 67%  
138 0.4% 50% Median
139 16% 50%  
140 0.3% 34%  
141 3% 34%  
142 1.1% 30%  
143 2% 29%  
144 1.4% 28%  
145 2% 26%  
146 1.4% 24%  
147 0.3% 23%  
148 0.7% 23%  
149 2% 22%  
150 0.4% 20%  
151 0.5% 20%  
152 1.0% 19%  
153 0.1% 18%  
154 2% 18%  
155 0.1% 16%  
156 2% 16%  
157 7% 14%  
158 0.1% 6%  
159 0.1% 6%  
160 0.2% 6%  
161 0.1% 6%  
162 0.4% 6%  
163 0.4% 5%  
164 0.3% 5%  
165 0.8% 5%  
166 0.2% 4%  
167 0% 4%  
168 0% 4%  
169 0.5% 4%  
170 3% 3%  
171 0% 0.5%  
172 0.2% 0.5%  
173 0% 0.4%  
174 0% 0.3%  
175 0% 0.3%  
176 0% 0.3%  
177 0% 0.3%  
178 0% 0.3%  
179 0% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.2%  
181 0% 0.2%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.7% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.3%  
62 0.3% 99.2%  
63 0.5% 98.9%  
64 0.4% 98%  
65 0.7% 98%  
66 0.7% 97%  
67 1.0% 97%  
68 1.3% 96%  
69 0.9% 94%  
70 4% 93%  
71 25% 89%  
72 4% 64%  
73 1.0% 60%  
74 7% 59%  
75 3% 53% Median
76 15% 50%  
77 22% 35%  
78 1.1% 14%  
79 0.8% 13%  
80 5% 12%  
81 0.5% 7%  
82 1.0% 6%  
83 0.4% 5%  
84 3% 5%  
85 0.2% 1.4%  
86 0.8% 1.2%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0.2% 99.8%  
26 0.3% 99.6%  
27 0% 99.3%  
28 0.1% 99.3%  
29 0.1% 99.2%  
30 0.1% 99.2%  
31 0% 99.0%  
32 2% 99.0%  
33 0.2% 97%  
34 0.2% 97%  
35 4% 97%  
36 0.4% 93%  
37 0.7% 93%  
38 0.1% 92%  
39 0.4% 92%  
40 0.9% 92%  
41 3% 91%  
42 0.9% 87%  
43 2% 87%  
44 3% 85%  
45 12% 82%  
46 15% 70%  
47 0.2% 55%  
48 7% 55% Median
49 0.2% 48%  
50 1.0% 48%  
51 9% 47%  
52 2% 38%  
53 0.5% 36%  
54 4% 35%  
55 0.6% 32%  
56 0.5% 31%  
57 8% 31%  
58 4% 22%  
59 4% 19%  
60 1.1% 15%  
61 1.1% 14%  
62 5% 13%  
63 0.2% 8%  
64 0.1% 8%  
65 0.4% 8%  
66 0.9% 7%  
67 0.2% 6%  
68 0.7% 6%  
69 1.3% 5%  
70 0.5% 4%  
71 0.3% 4%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.2% 2%  
74 0.5% 2%  
75 0.2% 1.0%  
76 0% 0.8%  
77 0.1% 0.8%  
78 0% 0.7%  
79 0.3% 0.7%  
80 0% 0.4%  
81 0% 0.3%  
82 0% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 27% 100%  
5 66% 73% Median
6 6% 7%  
7 1.2% 1.4%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.8%  
51 7% 99.4%  
52 3% 93%  
53 3% 90%  
54 87% 87% Median
55 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 11% 100% Last Result
5 2% 89%  
6 0.6% 87%  
7 26% 86%  
8 9% 60%  
9 15% 51% Median
10 25% 36%  
11 5% 11%  
12 4% 6%  
13 0.9% 2%  
14 1.1% 1.3%  
15 0% 0.2%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 378 100% 361–396 361–396 357–398 348–406
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 378 100% 361–396 361–396 357–398 348–406
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 366 99.7% 345–385 343–388 340–388 328–400
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 357 98.7% 339–378 339–379 333–380 321–391
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 312 14% 291–331 289–334 288–334 274–346
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 303 4% 285–324 285–325 281–326 267–337
Conservative Party 317 303 4% 285–324 285–325 281–326 267–337
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 276 0.1% 255–291 245–300 245–307 232–308
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 268 0% 245–287 236–290 236–300 221–302
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 222 0% 202–237 191–246 191–253 178–254
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 214 0% 191–233 182–236 182–246 168–248
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 214 0% 191–233 182–236 182–246 168–248
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 200 0% 181–215 174–224 174–231 160–233
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 191 0% 171–211 165–217 165–224 151–226
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 147 0% 128–162 120–170 120–177 107–179
Labour Party – Change UK 262 138 0% 117–157 111–164 111–170 97–172
Labour Party 262 138 0% 117–157 111–164 111–170 97–172

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0.1% 99.8%  
342 0% 99.7%  
343 0% 99.7%  
344 0% 99.6%  
345 0% 99.6%  
346 0% 99.6%  
347 0% 99.6%  
348 0.1% 99.6%  
349 0% 99.5%  
350 0.1% 99.4%  
351 0.1% 99.4%  
352 0.1% 99.3%  
353 0.7% 99.2%  
354 0% 98.5%  
355 0.3% 98%  
356 0.2% 98%  
357 0.6% 98%  
358 0.6% 97%  
359 0.4% 97%  
360 0.6% 96%  
361 8% 96%  
362 4% 88%  
363 0.8% 84%  
364 2% 84%  
365 3% 82%  
366 6% 79%  
367 2% 73%  
368 0.2% 71%  
369 1.0% 71%  
370 0.5% 70%  
371 0.9% 69%  
372 3% 68%  
373 2% 65%  
374 5% 63%  
375 2% 58%  
376 4% 56%  
377 1.1% 52%  
378 2% 51% Median
379 5% 49%  
380 14% 45%  
381 0.3% 30%  
382 12% 30%  
383 0.9% 18%  
384 0.9% 17%  
385 0.4% 16%  
386 0.6% 16%  
387 1.3% 15%  
388 0.8% 14%  
389 0.1% 13%  
390 2% 13%  
391 0.1% 11%  
392 0.3% 11%  
393 0.2% 11%  
394 0.1% 11%  
395 0.3% 11%  
396 6% 10%  
397 0.6% 5%  
398 2% 4%  
399 0.5% 2%  
400 0.4% 2%  
401 0.2% 1.2%  
402 0.3% 1.0%  
403 0% 0.7%  
404 0% 0.7%  
405 0.1% 0.6%  
406 0.1% 0.6%  
407 0.1% 0.5%  
408 0.1% 0.4%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0.1% 0.1%  
421 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0.1% 99.8%  
342 0% 99.7%  
343 0% 99.7%  
344 0% 99.6%  
345 0% 99.6%  
346 0% 99.6%  
347 0% 99.6%  
348 0.1% 99.6%  
349 0% 99.5%  
350 0.1% 99.4%  
351 0.1% 99.4%  
352 0.1% 99.3%  
353 0.7% 99.2%  
354 0% 98.5%  
355 0.3% 98%  
356 0.2% 98%  
357 0.6% 98%  
358 0.6% 97%  
359 0.4% 97%  
360 0.6% 96%  
361 8% 96%  
362 4% 88%  
363 0.8% 84%  
364 2% 84%  
365 3% 82%  
366 6% 79%  
367 2% 73%  
368 0.2% 71%  
369 1.0% 71%  
370 0.5% 70%  
371 0.9% 69%  
372 3% 68%  
373 2% 65%  
374 5% 63%  
375 2% 58%  
376 4% 56%  
377 1.1% 52%  
378 2% 51% Median
379 5% 49%  
380 14% 45%  
381 0.3% 30%  
382 12% 30%  
383 0.9% 18%  
384 0.9% 17%  
385 0.4% 16%  
386 0.6% 16%  
387 1.3% 15%  
388 0.8% 14%  
389 0.1% 13%  
390 2% 13%  
391 0.1% 11%  
392 0.3% 11%  
393 0.2% 11%  
394 0.1% 11%  
395 0.3% 11%  
396 6% 10%  
397 0.6% 5%  
398 2% 4%  
399 0.5% 2%  
400 0.4% 2%  
401 0.2% 1.2%  
402 0.3% 1.0%  
403 0% 0.7%  
404 0% 0.7%  
405 0.1% 0.6%  
406 0.1% 0.6%  
407 0.1% 0.5%  
408 0.1% 0.4%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0.1% 0.1%  
421 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.8%  
324 0% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.7%  
326 0% 99.7% Majority
327 0% 99.7%  
328 0.7% 99.6%  
329 0% 99.0%  
330 0.1% 99.0%  
331 0% 98.8%  
332 0.1% 98.8%  
333 0.1% 98.7%  
334 0% 98.6%  
335 0.1% 98.6%  
336 0.5% 98.5%  
337 0.1% 98%  
338 0% 98%  
339 0.3% 98%  
340 0.3% 98%  
341 0.1% 97%  
342 0.1% 97%  
343 7% 97%  
344 0.1% 90%  
345 0% 90%  
346 0.8% 90%  
347 4% 89%  
348 1.5% 85%  
349 1.1% 84%  
350 2% 82%  
351 2% 80%  
352 1.1% 79%  
353 3% 78%  
354 3% 75%  
355 0.6% 72%  
356 0.8% 71% Last Result
357 3% 70%  
358 2% 67%  
359 5% 66%  
360 1.2% 61%  
361 4% 59%  
362 1.1% 56%  
363 0.7% 54%  
364 2% 54%  
365 0.8% 52%  
366 11% 51% Median
367 0.6% 39%  
368 2% 39%  
369 1.2% 36%  
370 2% 35%  
371 0.5% 33%  
372 2% 33%  
373 14% 30%  
374 0.4% 16%  
375 0.2% 16%  
376 0.1% 16%  
377 0.6% 15%  
378 0.3% 15%  
379 0.6% 15%  
380 2% 14%  
381 0.3% 12%  
382 0.2% 12%  
383 0% 12%  
384 0.1% 12%  
385 3% 11%  
386 0.4% 9%  
387 0.4% 8%  
388 6% 8%  
389 0.7% 2%  
390 0.1% 1.3%  
391 0% 1.2%  
392 0.1% 1.1%  
393 0.2% 1.1%  
394 0.1% 0.9%  
395 0.1% 0.8%  
396 0% 0.7%  
397 0.1% 0.7%  
398 0% 0.6%  
399 0% 0.6%  
400 0% 0.5%  
401 0.1% 0.5%  
402 0.1% 0.4%  
403 0% 0.3%  
404 0% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.3%  
407 0% 0.3%  
408 0.1% 0.3%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0.1% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0% 99.7%  
320 0% 99.7%  
321 0.6% 99.7%  
322 0.2% 99.0%  
323 0% 98.9%  
324 0.1% 98.8%  
325 0% 98.8%  
326 0.3% 98.7% Majority
327 0% 98%  
328 0% 98%  
329 0.3% 98%  
330 0.3% 98%  
331 0.1% 98%  
332 0.1% 98%  
333 0.1% 98%  
334 0.1% 97%  
335 0.2% 97%  
336 0.2% 97%  
337 0.1% 97%  
338 0.1% 97%  
339 8% 97%  
340 3% 89%  
341 3% 85%  
342 0.3% 82%  
343 4% 82%  
344 1.1% 78%  
345 2% 77%  
346 4% 75%  
347 0.4% 71%  
348 0.7% 70%  
349 3% 70%  
350 6% 66%  
351 4% 60%  
352 2% 56% Last Result
353 0.2% 54%  
354 1.2% 54%  
355 0.7% 52%  
356 1.0% 52%  
357 3% 51% Median
358 0.9% 48%  
359 11% 47%  
360 2% 36%  
361 2% 34%  
362 0.2% 33%  
363 14% 33%  
364 0.4% 18%  
365 2% 18%  
366 0.3% 16%  
367 0.7% 16%  
368 0.3% 15%  
369 0.1% 15%  
370 2% 15%  
371 0.1% 13%  
372 0.4% 12%  
373 0.7% 12%  
374 0.3% 11%  
375 0.5% 11%  
376 0.3% 10%  
377 0.2% 10%  
378 0.1% 10%  
379 6% 10%  
380 2% 4%  
381 0% 2%  
382 0.8% 2%  
383 0.1% 1.0%  
384 0% 0.8%  
385 0% 0.8%  
386 0% 0.8%  
387 0.1% 0.7%  
388 0.1% 0.7%  
389 0.1% 0.6%  
390 0% 0.6%  
391 0.1% 0.5%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.3%  
395 0% 0.3%  
396 0% 0.3%  
397 0% 0.3%  
398 0% 0.3%  
399 0% 0.3%  
400 0% 0.3%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0.1% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.7%  
272 0% 99.7%  
273 0% 99.7%  
274 0.7% 99.7%  
275 0% 99.0%  
276 0.1% 99.0%  
277 0% 98.8%  
278 0.1% 98.8%  
279 0% 98.7%  
280 0% 98.7%  
281 0% 98.6%  
282 0.3% 98.6%  
283 0.2% 98%  
284 0% 98%  
285 0.2% 98%  
286 0.3% 98%  
287 0% 98%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 7% 97%  
290 0.1% 90%  
291 0.2% 90%  
292 0.6% 90%  
293 4% 89%  
294 0.1% 85%  
295 0.5% 85%  
296 2% 84%  
297 4% 82%  
298 1.0% 79%  
299 2% 78%  
300 3% 75%  
301 1.0% 72%  
302 0.4% 71%  
303 2% 71%  
304 3% 69%  
305 0.9% 66%  
306 1.0% 65%  
307 4% 64%  
308 6% 60%  
309 0.6% 55%  
310 2% 54%  
311 1.3% 52%  
312 11% 51% Median
313 0.7% 40%  
314 2% 39%  
315 1.1% 37%  
316 2% 35%  
317 0.5% 34%  
318 1.5% 33%  
319 14% 32%  
320 2% 18%  
321 0.2% 16% Last Result
322 0.1% 16%  
323 0.6% 15%  
324 0.4% 15%  
325 0.6% 15%  
326 2% 14% Majority
327 0.3% 12%  
328 0.2% 12%  
329 0% 12%  
330 0.1% 12%  
331 3% 12%  
332 0.5% 9%  
333 0.3% 8%  
334 6% 8%  
335 0.5% 2%  
336 0.3% 2%  
337 0% 1.3%  
338 0.1% 1.2%  
339 0% 1.1%  
340 0.3% 1.1%  
341 0.1% 0.8%  
342 0% 0.7%  
343 0% 0.7%  
344 0% 0.6%  
345 0% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.6%  
347 0.1% 0.5%  
348 0.1% 0.4%  
349 0% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.3%  
351 0% 0.3%  
352 0% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.3%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0.1% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.8%  
266 0.2% 99.8%  
267 0.6% 99.7%  
268 0.2% 99.0%  
269 0% 98.9%  
270 0.1% 98.9%  
271 0% 98.8%  
272 0.1% 98.8%  
273 0% 98.7%  
274 0.1% 98.6%  
275 0.5% 98.6%  
276 0.3% 98%  
277 0% 98%  
278 0.1% 98%  
279 0.1% 98%  
280 0% 98%  
281 0.1% 98%  
282 0.3% 97%  
283 0.1% 97%  
284 0.2% 97%  
285 8% 97%  
286 3% 89%  
287 2% 86%  
288 0.2% 84%  
289 4% 84%  
290 2% 80%  
291 1.5% 78%  
292 5% 76%  
293 0.8% 71%  
294 0.6% 70%  
295 2% 70%  
296 3% 68%  
297 4% 65%  
298 2% 60%  
299 5% 58%  
300 0.7% 54%  
301 1.1% 53%  
302 0.9% 52%  
303 2% 51% Median
304 1.1% 48%  
305 11% 47%  
306 2% 36%  
307 2% 35%  
308 0.2% 33%  
309 14% 33%  
310 0.4% 18%  
311 0.7% 18%  
312 0.2% 17%  
313 2% 17%  
314 0.3% 15%  
315 0.1% 15%  
316 2% 15%  
317 0.1% 13% Last Result
318 0.4% 13%  
319 0.7% 12%  
320 0.4% 11%  
321 0.4% 11%  
322 0.5% 11%  
323 0.2% 10%  
324 0.1% 10%  
325 6% 10%  
326 2% 4% Majority
327 0% 2%  
328 0.3% 2%  
329 0.5% 1.5%  
330 0% 0.9%  
331 0.1% 0.9%  
332 0.1% 0.8%  
333 0.1% 0.7%  
334 0.1% 0.7%  
335 0% 0.6%  
336 0% 0.6%  
337 0.2% 0.6%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0% 0.4%  
340 0% 0.3%  
341 0% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0.1% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.8%  
266 0.2% 99.8%  
267 0.6% 99.7%  
268 0.2% 99.0%  
269 0% 98.9%  
270 0.1% 98.9%  
271 0% 98.8%  
272 0.1% 98.8%  
273 0% 98.7%  
274 0.1% 98.6%  
275 0.5% 98.6%  
276 0.3% 98%  
277 0% 98%  
278 0.1% 98%  
279 0.1% 98%  
280 0% 98%  
281 0.1% 98%  
282 0.3% 97%  
283 0.1% 97%  
284 0.2% 97%  
285 8% 97%  
286 3% 89%  
287 2% 86%  
288 0.2% 84%  
289 4% 84%  
290 2% 80%  
291 1.5% 78%  
292 5% 76%  
293 0.8% 71%  
294 0.6% 70%  
295 2% 70%  
296 3% 68%  
297 4% 65%  
298 2% 60%  
299 5% 58%  
300 0.7% 54%  
301 1.1% 53%  
302 0.9% 52%  
303 2% 51% Median
304 1.1% 48%  
305 11% 47%  
306 2% 36%  
307 2% 35%  
308 0.2% 33%  
309 14% 33%  
310 0.4% 18%  
311 0.7% 18%  
312 0.2% 17%  
313 2% 17%  
314 0.3% 15%  
315 0.1% 15%  
316 2% 15%  
317 0.1% 13% Last Result
318 0.4% 13%  
319 0.7% 12%  
320 0.4% 11%  
321 0.4% 11%  
322 0.5% 11%  
323 0.2% 10%  
324 0.1% 10%  
325 6% 10%  
326 2% 4% Majority
327 0% 2%  
328 0.3% 2%  
329 0.5% 1.5%  
330 0% 0.9%  
331 0.1% 0.9%  
332 0.1% 0.8%  
333 0.1% 0.7%  
334 0.1% 0.7%  
335 0% 0.6%  
336 0% 0.6%  
337 0.2% 0.6%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0% 0.4%  
340 0% 0.3%  
341 0% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0.1% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.8%  
228 0.2% 99.8%  
229 0.1% 99.7%  
230 0% 99.6%  
231 0% 99.5%  
232 0.2% 99.5%  
233 0% 99.3%  
234 0.6% 99.3%  
235 0.1% 98.7%  
236 0.1% 98.6%  
237 0% 98.6%  
238 0% 98.5%  
239 0.1% 98.5%  
240 0.1% 98%  
241 0% 98%  
242 0.3% 98%  
243 0.1% 98%  
244 0% 98%  
245 6% 98%  
246 0.1% 92%  
247 0.2% 92%  
248 0.2% 92%  
249 0.2% 91%  
250 0.3% 91%  
251 0.1% 91%  
252 0.1% 91%  
253 0.3% 91%  
254 0.1% 90%  
255 0.3% 90%  
256 0.9% 90%  
257 2% 89%  
258 0.3% 87%  
259 0.1% 87%  
260 3% 87%  
261 0.6% 84%  
262 0.3% 83%  
263 0.2% 83%  
264 1.0% 83%  
265 1.0% 82%  
266 0.4% 81%  
267 0.4% 81%  
268 2% 80%  
269 3% 78%  
270 0.4% 76%  
271 2% 75%  
272 20% 73%  
273 1.2% 53%  
274 0.8% 52%  
275 0.1% 51%  
276 3% 51% Median
277 12% 48%  
278 0.9% 36%  
279 7% 35%  
280 0.1% 28%  
281 0.2% 28%  
282 3% 28%  
283 0.4% 24%  
284 0.7% 24%  
285 0.5% 23%  
286 3% 23%  
287 2% 20%  
288 0.4% 18%  
289 0.9% 17%  
290 0.1% 16%  
291 7% 16%  
292 2% 9%  
293 0.9% 7%  
294 0.4% 7%  
295 0.3% 6%  
296 0.5% 6%  
297 0.1% 5%  
298 0.1% 5%  
299 0.2% 5%  
300 1.1% 5%  
301 0.2% 4%  
302 0% 4%  
303 0% 4%  
304 0% 4%  
305 0.1% 4%  
306 0% 4%  
307 3% 3%  
308 0.1% 0.6%  
309 0% 0.5%  
310 0.1% 0.4%  
311 0% 0.3%  
312 0% 0.3%  
313 0% 0.3% Last Result
314 0% 0.3%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.8%  
219 0% 99.8%  
220 0.1% 99.8%  
221 0.2% 99.7%  
222 0.1% 99.5%  
223 0% 99.4%  
224 0.1% 99.4%  
225 0.7% 99.3%  
226 0% 98.7%  
227 0% 98.6%  
228 0.1% 98.6%  
229 0% 98.6%  
230 0.2% 98.5%  
231 0.3% 98%  
232 0% 98%  
233 0% 98%  
234 0% 98%  
235 0.2% 98%  
236 6% 98%  
237 0% 92%  
238 0.4% 92%  
239 0.1% 92%  
240 0.1% 92%  
241 0.1% 91%  
242 0.2% 91%  
243 0.4% 91%  
244 0.4% 91%  
245 0.7% 90%  
246 0.2% 90%  
247 2% 89%  
248 1.3% 87%  
249 0.1% 86%  
250 0.1% 86%  
251 0.6% 86%  
252 1.1% 85%  
253 0.1% 84%  
254 0.3% 84%  
255 2% 84%  
256 0.2% 81%  
257 0.3% 81%  
258 0.4% 81%  
259 3% 80%  
260 0.3% 77%  
261 5% 77%  
262 18% 72%  
263 1.1% 54%  
264 1.4% 53%  
265 0.2% 51%  
266 0.4% 51%  
267 0.5% 51% Median
268 4% 50%  
269 0.6% 46%  
270 15% 46%  
271 1.0% 30%  
272 1.2% 29%  
273 0.6% 28%  
274 0.6% 28%  
275 4% 27%  
276 0.4% 23%  
277 0.4% 23%  
278 0.2% 22%  
279 3% 22%  
280 2% 19%  
281 0.2% 17%  
282 0.3% 17%  
283 0.1% 17%  
284 2% 16%  
285 0.3% 14%  
286 1.2% 14%  
287 7% 13%  
288 0% 5%  
289 0.2% 5%  
290 0.5% 5%  
291 0% 5%  
292 0.1% 5%  
293 0.4% 5%  
294 0.2% 4%  
295 0.1% 4%  
296 0.2% 4%  
297 0.1% 4%  
298 0% 4%  
299 0% 4%  
300 3% 4%  
301 0.1% 0.6%  
302 0.1% 0.6%  
303 0% 0.4%  
304 0% 0.4%  
305 0% 0.4%  
306 0.2% 0.4%  
307 0% 0.3%  
308 0% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.2% Last Result
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0.1% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0.2% 99.9%  
175 0.1% 99.7%  
176 0% 99.6%  
177 0% 99.5%  
178 0.2% 99.5%  
179 0% 99.3%  
180 0.6% 99.3%  
181 0% 98.7%  
182 0% 98.7%  
183 0% 98.6%  
184 0.1% 98.6%  
185 0.1% 98.5%  
186 0.1% 98%  
187 0.1% 98%  
188 0.2% 98%  
189 0.3% 98%  
190 0% 98%  
191 6% 98%  
192 0.1% 92%  
193 0.2% 92%  
194 0.2% 92%  
195 0.2% 91%  
196 0.1% 91%  
197 0.4% 91%  
198 0% 91%  
199 0.2% 91%  
200 0.1% 90%  
201 0.3% 90%  
202 0.9% 90%  
203 2% 89%  
204 0.2% 87%  
205 0.1% 87%  
206 3% 87%  
207 0.5% 84%  
208 0.3% 84%  
209 0.2% 83%  
210 1.1% 83%  
211 1.0% 82%  
212 0.1% 81%  
213 0.5% 81%  
214 2% 80%  
215 2% 78%  
216 0.4% 76%  
217 0.3% 75%  
218 22% 75%  
219 0.8% 53%  
220 0.9% 52%  
221 0.5% 51%  
222 3% 51% Median
223 12% 48%  
224 0.8% 36%  
225 3% 35%  
226 0.1% 32%  
227 0.3% 32%  
228 6% 32%  
229 0.2% 26%  
230 2% 25%  
231 0.5% 23%  
232 3% 23%  
233 0.6% 20%  
234 0.3% 19%  
235 0.7% 19%  
236 2% 18%  
237 7% 16%  
238 2% 9%  
239 0.9% 7%  
240 0% 7%  
241 0.4% 7%  
242 0.8% 6%  
243 0.1% 5%  
244 0% 5%  
245 0.1% 5%  
246 0.9% 5%  
247 0.2% 4%  
248 0% 4%  
249 0.3% 4%  
250 0% 4%  
251 0.1% 4%  
252 0% 4%  
253 3% 4%  
254 0.1% 0.6%  
255 0% 0.5%  
256 0% 0.5%  
257 0% 0.5%  
258 0.1% 0.4%  
259 0% 0.3%  
260 0% 0.3%  
261 0% 0.2%  
262 0% 0.2%  
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.2%  
266 0% 0.2%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.8%  
166 0.1% 99.8%  
167 0.3% 99.8%  
168 0.1% 99.5%  
169 0% 99.4%  
170 0.1% 99.4%  
171 0.6% 99.3%  
172 0% 98.7%  
173 0% 98.7%  
174 0.1% 98.6%  
175 0% 98.6%  
176 0.1% 98.6%  
177 0.1% 98%  
178 0.2% 98%  
179 0% 98%  
180 0% 98%  
181 0.2% 98%  
182 6% 98%  
183 0% 92%  
184 0.4% 92%  
185 0.1% 92%  
186 0.1% 92%  
187 0.1% 92%  
188 0.2% 91%  
189 0.2% 91%  
190 0.6% 91%  
191 0.6% 90%  
192 0.2% 90%  
193 2% 90%  
194 1.3% 87%  
195 0.2% 86%  
196 0.1% 86%  
197 0.6% 86%  
198 1.0% 85%  
199 0.2% 84%  
200 0.3% 84%  
201 2% 84%  
202 0.1% 81%  
203 0.5% 81%  
204 0.2% 81%  
205 3% 81%  
206 0.5% 78%  
207 4% 77%  
208 18% 73%  
209 0.6% 55%  
210 2% 54%  
211 0.3% 52%  
212 0.2% 51%  
213 0.7% 51% Median
214 4% 50%  
215 0.6% 46%  
216 11% 46%  
217 1.0% 35%  
218 1.4% 34%  
219 5% 33%  
220 0.4% 28%  
221 3% 27%  
222 0.4% 25%  
223 2% 24%  
224 0.2% 23%  
225 3% 22%  
226 0.5% 19%  
227 0.2% 19%  
228 0.3% 18%  
229 1.5% 18%  
230 2% 16%  
231 0.1% 15%  
232 2% 14%  
233 7% 13%  
234 0.1% 6%  
235 0.2% 5%  
236 0.5% 5%  
237 0% 5%  
238 0.1% 5%  
239 0.4% 5%  
240 0.2% 4%  
241 0.1% 4%  
242 0.1% 4%  
243 0% 4%  
244 0% 4%  
245 0.2% 4%  
246 3% 4%  
247 0.1% 0.7%  
248 0.1% 0.6%  
249 0% 0.5%  
250 0% 0.4%  
251 0% 0.4%  
252 0% 0.4%  
253 0% 0.4%  
254 0.1% 0.4%  
255 0% 0.2%  
256 0% 0.2%  
257 0.1% 0.2%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0% 0.2%  
260 0.1% 0.2%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.8%  
166 0.1% 99.8%  
167 0.3% 99.8%  
168 0.1% 99.5%  
169 0% 99.4%  
170 0.1% 99.4%  
171 0.6% 99.3%  
172 0% 98.7%  
173 0% 98.7%  
174 0.1% 98.6%  
175 0% 98.6%  
176 0.1% 98.6%  
177 0.1% 98%  
178 0.2% 98%  
179 0% 98%  
180 0% 98%  
181 0.2% 98%  
182 6% 98%  
183 0% 92%  
184 0.4% 92%  
185 0.1% 92%  
186 0.1% 92%  
187 0.1% 92%  
188 0.2% 91%  
189 0.2% 91%  
190 0.6% 91%  
191 0.6% 90%  
192 0.2% 90%  
193 2% 90%  
194 1.3% 87%  
195 0.2% 86%  
196 0.1% 86%  
197 0.6% 86%  
198 1.0% 85%  
199 0.2% 84%  
200 0.3% 84%  
201 2% 84%  
202 0.1% 81%  
203 0.5% 81%  
204 0.2% 81%  
205 3% 81%  
206 0.5% 78%  
207 4% 77%  
208 18% 73%  
209 0.6% 55%  
210 2% 54%  
211 0.3% 52%  
212 0.2% 51%  
213 0.7% 51% Median
214 4% 50%  
215 0.6% 46%  
216 11% 46%  
217 1.0% 35%  
218 1.4% 34%  
219 5% 33%  
220 0.4% 28%  
221 3% 27%  
222 0.4% 25%  
223 2% 24%  
224 0.2% 23%  
225 3% 22%  
226 0.5% 19%  
227 0.2% 19%  
228 0.3% 18%  
229 1.5% 18%  
230 2% 16%  
231 0.1% 15%  
232 2% 14%  
233 7% 13%  
234 0.1% 6%  
235 0.2% 5%  
236 0.5% 5%  
237 0% 5%  
238 0.1% 5%  
239 0.4% 5%  
240 0.2% 4%  
241 0.1% 4%  
242 0.1% 4%  
243 0% 4%  
244 0% 4%  
245 0.2% 4%  
246 3% 4%  
247 0.1% 0.7%  
248 0.1% 0.6%  
249 0% 0.5%  
250 0% 0.4%  
251 0% 0.4%  
252 0% 0.4%  
253 0% 0.4%  
254 0.1% 0.4%  
255 0% 0.2%  
256 0% 0.2%  
257 0.1% 0.2%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0% 0.2%  
260 0.1% 0.2%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0% 100%  
153 0.2% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.8%  
155 0% 99.7%  
156 0% 99.7%  
157 0% 99.6%  
158 0% 99.6%  
159 0% 99.6%  
160 0.1% 99.6%  
161 0.1% 99.5%  
162 0.7% 99.4%  
163 0.1% 98.7%  
164 0% 98.6%  
165 0.2% 98.6%  
166 0.1% 98%  
167 0.1% 98%  
168 0% 98%  
169 0% 98%  
170 0.1% 98%  
171 0.2% 98%  
172 0% 98%  
173 0.3% 98%  
174 6% 98%  
175 0.4% 92%  
176 0.2% 92%  
177 0.3% 91%  
178 0.4% 91%  
179 0.1% 91%  
180 0.3% 91%  
181 0.2% 90%  
182 0.3% 90%  
183 3% 90%  
184 0.2% 87%  
185 0.7% 86%  
186 0.3% 86%  
187 0.4% 85%  
188 2% 85%  
189 0.7% 83%  
190 0.3% 82%  
191 2% 82%  
192 0.4% 80%  
193 0.8% 80%  
194 2% 79%  
195 4% 77%  
196 2% 73%  
197 0.6% 71%  
198 2% 71%  
199 7% 68%  
200 12% 61%  
201 14% 50% Median
202 5% 36%  
203 2% 31%  
204 0.3% 30%  
205 2% 30%  
206 2% 28%  
207 0.7% 26%  
208 2% 25%  
209 1.4% 23%  
210 0.9% 21%  
211 1.0% 20%  
212 1.4% 19%  
213 0.3% 18%  
214 0.7% 18%  
215 7% 17%  
216 0.1% 10%  
217 0.4% 10%  
218 2% 9%  
219 0.4% 7%  
220 0.2% 7%  
221 0.8% 6%  
222 0.1% 6%  
223 0.2% 5%  
224 0.3% 5%  
225 0.3% 5%  
226 0.6% 5%  
227 0% 4%  
228 0.3% 4%  
229 0.1% 4%  
230 0.1% 4%  
231 3% 4%  
232 0.1% 1.0%  
233 0.5% 0.9%  
234 0% 0.4%  
235 0% 0.3%  
236 0% 0.3%  
237 0% 0.3%  
238 0% 0.3%  
239 0% 0.3%  
240 0% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.2%  
244 0% 0.2%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0.2% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.7%  
148 0.1% 99.7%  
149 0.1% 99.7%  
150 0% 99.6%  
151 0.1% 99.6%  
152 0.1% 99.4%  
153 0.7% 99.4%  
154 0.1% 98.7%  
155 0.1% 98.6%  
156 0% 98.5%  
157 0% 98.5%  
158 0.2% 98%  
159 0% 98%  
160 0.1% 98%  
161 0.1% 98%  
162 0% 98%  
163 0% 98%  
164 0.4% 98%  
165 6% 98%  
166 0.3% 92%  
167 0.5% 92%  
168 0.3% 91%  
169 0.2% 91%  
170 0.3% 91%  
171 1.1% 90%  
172 0.3% 89%  
173 2% 89%  
174 0.3% 87%  
175 0.6% 87%  
176 0.3% 86%  
177 0.5% 86%  
178 0.2% 85%  
179 0.8% 85%  
180 0.2% 84%  
181 0.4% 84%  
182 2% 84%  
183 3% 81%  
184 0.6% 79%  
185 4% 78%  
186 0.2% 74%  
187 1.2% 73%  
188 2% 72%  
189 0.6% 70%  
190 6% 69%  
191 17% 63%  
192 1.1% 46% Median
193 11% 45%  
194 0.3% 34%  
195 4% 34%  
196 1.1% 30%  
197 1.5% 29%  
198 1.3% 27%  
199 2% 26%  
200 2% 24%  
201 1.4% 23%  
202 0.7% 21%  
203 0.5% 20%  
204 0.8% 20%  
205 2% 19%  
206 0.7% 17%  
207 0.1% 17%  
208 1.0% 17%  
209 0% 16%  
210 2% 16%  
211 7% 14%  
212 0.1% 6%  
213 0.1% 6%  
214 0.2% 6%  
215 0.3% 6%  
216 0.1% 6%  
217 0.7% 5%  
218 0.3% 5%  
219 0.7% 4%  
220 0% 4%  
221 0% 4%  
222 0% 4%  
223 0.5% 4%  
224 3% 3%  
225 0% 0.5%  
226 0.2% 0.5%  
227 0% 0.3%  
228 0% 0.3%  
229 0% 0.3%  
230 0% 0.3%  
231 0% 0.3%  
232 0% 0.3%  
233 0% 0.2%  
234 0% 0.2%  
235 0% 0.2%  
236 0.1% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.2% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.8%  
101 0% 99.8%  
102 0.1% 99.7%  
103 0% 99.7%  
104 0% 99.7%  
105 0% 99.7%  
106 0.1% 99.6%  
107 0.1% 99.5%  
108 0.7% 99.4%  
109 0.1% 98.7%  
110 0% 98.6%  
111 0.1% 98.6%  
112 0.1% 98%  
113 0.1% 98%  
114 0% 98%  
115 0.1% 98%  
116 0.1% 98%  
117 0.2% 98%  
118 0% 98%  
119 0.3% 98%  
120 6% 98%  
121 0.2% 92%  
122 0.4% 92%  
123 0.1% 91%  
124 0.6% 91%  
125 0.1% 91%  
126 0.3% 91%  
127 0.2% 90%  
128 0.3% 90%  
129 3% 90%  
130 0.2% 87%  
131 0.5% 87%  
132 0.4% 86%  
133 0.2% 86%  
134 2% 85%  
135 0.4% 83%  
136 0.7% 83%  
137 2% 82%  
138 0.5% 81%  
139 0.9% 80%  
140 2% 79%  
141 5% 78%  
142 2% 73%  
143 0.6% 71%  
144 2% 71%  
145 2% 69%  
146 11% 66%  
147 15% 55% Median
148 9% 41%  
149 1.4% 31%  
150 0.3% 30%  
151 2% 30%  
152 2% 28%  
153 0.8% 26%  
154 1.3% 25%  
155 1.2% 24%  
156 2% 23%  
157 1.0% 21%  
158 0.3% 20%  
159 0.3% 19%  
160 0.3% 19%  
161 9% 19%  
162 0.4% 10%  
163 0.4% 10%  
164 2% 9%  
165 0.1% 7%  
166 0.5% 7%  
167 0.5% 6%  
168 0.1% 6%  
169 0.3% 6%  
170 0.5% 5%  
171 0.3% 5%  
172 0.6% 5%  
173 0% 4%  
174 0.3% 4%  
175 0.1% 4%  
176 0.1% 4%  
177 3% 4%  
178 0.2% 1.0%  
179 0.5% 0.9%  
180 0% 0.4%  
181 0% 0.4%  
182 0% 0.3%  
183 0% 0.3%  
184 0% 0.3%  
185 0% 0.3%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.7%  
94 0% 99.7%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.1% 99.6%  
97 0.1% 99.6%  
98 0.1% 99.5%  
99 0.7% 99.4%  
100 0.1% 98.7%  
101 0.1% 98.6%  
102 0% 98.6%  
103 0% 98.5%  
104 0.1% 98.5%  
105 0% 98%  
106 0.1% 98%  
107 0.1% 98%  
108 0.1% 98%  
109 0% 98%  
110 0.2% 98%  
111 6% 98%  
112 0.3% 92%  
113 0.5% 92%  
114 0.3% 91%  
115 0.2% 91%  
116 0.1% 91%  
117 1.3% 91%  
118 0.3% 89%  
119 2% 89%  
120 0.3% 87%  
121 0.5% 87%  
122 0.2% 86%  
123 0.1% 86%  
124 0.5% 86%  
125 0.3% 85%  
126 0.7% 85%  
127 0.7% 84%  
128 2% 84%  
129 3% 81%  
130 0.4% 79%  
131 4% 78%  
132 0.3% 74%  
133 1.2% 73%  
134 2% 72%  
135 0.6% 70%  
136 2% 70%  
137 17% 67%  
138 0.4% 50% Median
139 16% 50%  
140 0.3% 34%  
141 3% 34%  
142 1.1% 30%  
143 2% 29%  
144 1.4% 28%  
145 2% 26%  
146 1.4% 24%  
147 0.3% 23%  
148 0.7% 23%  
149 2% 22%  
150 0.4% 20%  
151 0.5% 20%  
152 1.0% 19%  
153 0.1% 18%  
154 2% 18%  
155 0.1% 16%  
156 2% 16%  
157 7% 14%  
158 0.1% 6%  
159 0.1% 6%  
160 0.2% 6%  
161 0.1% 6%  
162 0.4% 6%  
163 0.4% 5%  
164 0.3% 5%  
165 0.8% 5%  
166 0.2% 4%  
167 0% 4%  
168 0% 4%  
169 0.5% 4%  
170 3% 3%  
171 0% 0.5%  
172 0.2% 0.5%  
173 0% 0.4%  
174 0% 0.3%  
175 0% 0.3%  
176 0% 0.3%  
177 0% 0.3%  
178 0% 0.3%  
179 0% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.2%  
181 0% 0.2%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.7%  
94 0% 99.7%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.1% 99.6%  
97 0.1% 99.6%  
98 0.1% 99.5%  
99 0.7% 99.4%  
100 0.1% 98.7%  
101 0.1% 98.6%  
102 0% 98.6%  
103 0% 98.5%  
104 0.1% 98.5%  
105 0% 98%  
106 0.1% 98%  
107 0.1% 98%  
108 0.1% 98%  
109 0% 98%  
110 0.2% 98%  
111 6% 98%  
112 0.3% 92%  
113 0.5% 92%  
114 0.3% 91%  
115 0.2% 91%  
116 0.1% 91%  
117 1.3% 91%  
118 0.3% 89%  
119 2% 89%  
120 0.3% 87%  
121 0.5% 87%  
122 0.2% 86%  
123 0.1% 86%  
124 0.5% 86%  
125 0.3% 85%  
126 0.7% 85%  
127 0.7% 84%  
128 2% 84%  
129 3% 81%  
130 0.4% 79%  
131 4% 78%  
132 0.3% 74%  
133 1.2% 73%  
134 2% 72%  
135 0.6% 70%  
136 2% 70%  
137 17% 67%  
138 0.4% 50% Median
139 16% 50%  
140 0.3% 34%  
141 3% 34%  
142 1.1% 30%  
143 2% 29%  
144 1.4% 28%  
145 2% 26%  
146 1.4% 24%  
147 0.3% 23%  
148 0.7% 23%  
149 2% 22%  
150 0.4% 20%  
151 0.5% 20%  
152 1.0% 19%  
153 0.1% 18%  
154 2% 18%  
155 0.1% 16%  
156 2% 16%  
157 7% 14%  
158 0.1% 6%  
159 0.1% 6%  
160 0.2% 6%  
161 0.1% 6%  
162 0.4% 6%  
163 0.4% 5%  
164 0.3% 5%  
165 0.8% 5%  
166 0.2% 4%  
167 0% 4%  
168 0% 4%  
169 0.5% 4%  
170 3% 3%  
171 0% 0.5%  
172 0.2% 0.5%  
173 0% 0.4%  
174 0% 0.3%  
175 0% 0.3%  
176 0% 0.3%  
177 0% 0.3%  
178 0% 0.3%  
179 0% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.2%  
181 0% 0.2%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations