Opinion Poll by ComRes for Britain Elects, 26–28 July 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Party | 40.0% | 29.3% | 28.1–30.7% | 27.7–31.0% | 27.4–31.4% | 26.8–32.0% |
| Conservative Party | 42.4% | 28.3% | 27.1–29.7% | 26.7–30.0% | 26.4–30.4% | 25.8–31.0% |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.4% | 15.7% | 14.7–16.8% | 14.4–17.1% | 14.1–17.3% | 13.7–17.9% |
| Brexit Party | 0.0% | 14.7% | 13.7–15.7% | 13.4–16.0% | 13.2–16.3% | 12.7–16.8% |
| Green Party | 1.6% | 4.9% | 4.3–5.6% | 4.2–5.8% | 4.0–5.9% | 3.8–6.3% |
| Scottish National Party | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.5–3.5% | 2.4–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.1–4.1% |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.4% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% |
| UK Independence Party | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.4% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% |
| Change UK | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Party | 262 | 240 | 215–265 | 215–273 | 211–276 | 199–284 |
| Conservative Party | 317 | 224 | 208–254 | 194–254 | 190–261 | 182–279 |
| Liberal Democrats | 12 | 63 | 56–65 | 54–66 | 54–71 | 46–72 |
| Brexit Party | 0 | 49 | 32–57 | 30–58 | 28–66 | 26–72 |
| Green Party | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–5 |
| Scottish National Party | 35 | 48 | 42–53 | 42–53 | 38–53 | 24–53 |
| Plaid Cymru | 4 | 5 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 3–12 |
| UK Independence Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Change UK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 191 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 193 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 194 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 196 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 198 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 199 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 200 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 201 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 203 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 205 | 0% | 98% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 209 | 0% | 98% | |
| 210 | 0% | 98% | |
| 211 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 213 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 214 | 0% | 97% | |
| 215 | 11% | 97% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 217 | 0% | 85% | |
| 218 | 0% | 85% | |
| 219 | 1.2% | 85% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 222 | 0.2% | 84% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 224 | 0% | 84% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 227 | 2% | 84% | |
| 228 | 0% | 81% | |
| 229 | 7% | 81% | |
| 230 | 0.2% | 75% | |
| 231 | 10% | 74% | |
| 232 | 0% | 65% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 65% | |
| 234 | 0.3% | 64% | |
| 235 | 2% | 64% | |
| 236 | 5% | 62% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 57% | |
| 238 | 0.2% | 57% | |
| 239 | 1.0% | 57% | |
| 240 | 21% | 56% | Median |
| 241 | 0.1% | 35% | |
| 242 | 2% | 35% | |
| 243 | 0.4% | 33% | |
| 244 | 0% | 33% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 33% | |
| 246 | 0.1% | 33% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 33% | |
| 248 | 4% | 32% | |
| 249 | 0.7% | 28% | |
| 250 | 2% | 28% | |
| 251 | 0.7% | 26% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 25% | |
| 253 | 2% | 25% | |
| 254 | 0% | 24% | |
| 255 | 4% | 23% | |
| 256 | 0.3% | 20% | |
| 257 | 0% | 19% | |
| 258 | 0% | 19% | |
| 259 | 0.6% | 19% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 261 | 2% | 19% | |
| 262 | 2% | 17% | Last Result |
| 263 | 3% | 15% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 265 | 2% | 12% | |
| 266 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 267 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 268 | 0% | 8% | |
| 269 | 2% | 8% | |
| 270 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 273 | 2% | 5% | |
| 274 | 0% | 3% | |
| 275 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 276 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 277 | 0% | 2% | |
| 278 | 0% | 2% | |
| 279 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 280 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 281 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 283 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 285 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 289 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 290 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 291 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 294 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 172 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 173 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 174 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 175 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 177 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 178 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 181 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 183 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 184 | 0% | 98% | |
| 185 | 0% | 98% | |
| 186 | 0% | 98% | |
| 187 | 0% | 98% | |
| 188 | 0% | 98% | |
| 189 | 0% | 98% | |
| 190 | 2% | 98% | |
| 191 | 0% | 96% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 194 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 197 | 0% | 94% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 200 | 2% | 94% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 202 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 204 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 208 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 209 | 0.4% | 90% | |
| 210 | 0% | 89% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 212 | 4% | 89% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 214 | 2% | 85% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 216 | 0.3% | 83% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 218 | 20% | 83% | |
| 219 | 5% | 63% | |
| 220 | 3% | 58% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 56% | |
| 222 | 0% | 56% | |
| 223 | 5% | 55% | |
| 224 | 1.5% | 50% | Median |
| 225 | 0% | 49% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 49% | |
| 227 | 2% | 49% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 47% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 46% | |
| 230 | 5% | 46% | |
| 231 | 0.2% | 41% | |
| 232 | 0% | 41% | |
| 233 | 0.5% | 41% | |
| 234 | 0.1% | 41% | |
| 235 | 2% | 40% | |
| 236 | 7% | 39% | |
| 237 | 0% | 32% | |
| 238 | 0.7% | 32% | |
| 239 | 0.8% | 31% | |
| 240 | 0% | 30% | |
| 241 | 0% | 30% | |
| 242 | 1.0% | 30% | |
| 243 | 0.3% | 29% | |
| 244 | 11% | 29% | |
| 245 | 0.3% | 18% | |
| 246 | 0.2% | 18% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 18% | |
| 248 | 2% | 18% | |
| 249 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 251 | 0% | 15% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 253 | 1.3% | 14% | |
| 254 | 10% | 13% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 256 | 0% | 3% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 258 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 261 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 262 | 0% | 2% | |
| 263 | 0% | 2% | |
| 264 | 0% | 2% | |
| 265 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 266 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 267 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 268 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 269 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 270 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 271 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 273 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 274 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 275 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 276 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 278 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 279 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 283 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 285 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 289 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 290 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 291 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 292 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 293 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 295 | 0% | 0% | |
| 296 | 0% | 0% | |
| 297 | 0% | 0% | |
| 298 | 0% | 0% | |
| 299 | 0% | 0% | |
| 300 | 0% | 0% | |
| 301 | 0% | 0% | |
| 302 | 0% | 0% | |
| 303 | 0% | 0% | |
| 304 | 0% | 0% | |
| 305 | 0% | 0% | |
| 306 | 0% | 0% | |
| 307 | 0% | 0% | |
| 308 | 0% | 0% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0% | |
| 310 | 0% | 0% | |
| 311 | 0% | 0% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 51 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 54 | 6% | 98.6% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 56 | 2% | 92% | |
| 57 | 8% | 90% | |
| 58 | 2% | 82% | |
| 59 | 9% | 80% | |
| 60 | 7% | 71% | |
| 61 | 6% | 64% | |
| 62 | 8% | 58% | |
| 63 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 64 | 21% | 40% | |
| 65 | 12% | 19% | |
| 66 | 2% | 7% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Brexit Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 30 | 2% | 96% | |
| 31 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 32 | 16% | 93% | |
| 33 | 7% | 77% | |
| 34 | 0.9% | 70% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 69% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 69% | |
| 37 | 3% | 69% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 66% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 65% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 65% | |
| 41 | 4% | 65% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 60% | |
| 43 | 2% | 60% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 58% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 58% | |
| 46 | 1.1% | 58% | |
| 47 | 1.0% | 56% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 55% | |
| 49 | 11% | 55% | Median |
| 50 | 6% | 44% | |
| 51 | 7% | 39% | |
| 52 | 1.4% | 31% | |
| 53 | 0% | 30% | |
| 54 | 0% | 30% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 30% | |
| 56 | 4% | 30% | |
| 57 | 20% | 26% | |
| 58 | 2% | 6% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 69 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 6% | 7% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 28 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 29 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 30 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 31 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 32 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 33 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 34 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 35 | 0% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.7% | 98.6% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 39 | 0% | 97% | |
| 40 | 0% | 97% | |
| 41 | 0% | 97% | |
| 42 | 10% | 97% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 44 | 3% | 87% | |
| 45 | 3% | 84% | |
| 46 | 22% | 81% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 59% | |
| 48 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 49 | 17% | 44% | |
| 50 | 6% | 27% | |
| 51 | 7% | 22% | |
| 52 | 2% | 15% | |
| 53 | 13% | 13% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 45% | 98% | Last Result |
| 5 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 6 | 0.3% | 45% | |
| 7 | 22% | 44% | |
| 8 | 18% | 22% | |
| 9 | 2% | 4% | |
| 10 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
UK Independence Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Change UK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 313 | 354 | 97% | 336–380 | 336–389 | 314–397 | 310–399 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party | 309 | 350 | 96% | 329–376 | 329–382 | 310–392 | 301–393 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru | 278 | 308 | 19% | 287–331 | 287–342 | 276–348 | 264–351 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK | 274 | 304 | 9% | 280–325 | 280–336 | 266–344 | 257–344 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats | 274 | 304 | 9% | 280–325 | 280–336 | 266–344 | 257–344 |
| Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 301 | 290 | 6% | 271–321 | 271–326 | 260–327 | 249–344 |
| Labour Party – Scottish National Party | 297 | 286 | 1.5% | 264–315 | 264–320 | 255–322 | 244–336 |
| Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK | 329 | 284 | 1.3% | 271–317 | 256–317 | 252–322 | 244–334 |
| Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats | 329 | 284 | 1.3% | 271–317 | 256–317 | 252–322 | 244–334 |
| Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 356 | 280 | 0.6% | 260–303 | 246–305 | 244–317 | 237–330 |
| Conservative Party – Brexit Party | 317 | 275 | 0.2% | 249–293 | 240–294 | 232–315 | 230–320 |
| Conservative Party – Scottish National Party | 352 | 276 | 0.4% | 255–296 | 242–301 | 238–312 | 231–321 |
| Labour Party – Plaid Cymru | 266 | 244 | 0% | 222–273 | 222–277 | 216–281 | 207–291 |
| Labour Party – Change UK | 262 | 240 | 0% | 215–265 | 215–273 | 211–276 | 199–284 |
| Labour Party | 262 | 240 | 0% | 215–265 | 215–273 | 211–276 | 199–284 |
| Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru | 321 | 230 | 0% | 213–261 | 200–261 | 194–269 | 188–285 |
| Conservative Party – Change UK | 317 | 224 | 0% | 208–254 | 194–254 | 190–261 | 182–279 |
| Conservative Party | 317 | 224 | 0% | 208–254 | 194–254 | 190–261 | 182–279 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 301 | 0% | 100% | |
| 302 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 303 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 304 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 305 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 306 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 307 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 308 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 309 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 310 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 311 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 312 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 313 | 0% | 98% | Last Result |
| 314 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 315 | 0% | 97% | |
| 316 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 317 | 0% | 97% | |
| 318 | 0% | 97% | |
| 319 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 320 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 321 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 322 | 0% | 97% | |
| 323 | 0% | 97% | |
| 324 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 325 | 0% | 97% | |
| 326 | 0% | 97% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 97% | |
| 328 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 329 | 0% | 97% | |
| 330 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 331 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 333 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 334 | 0% | 96% | |
| 335 | 0% | 96% | |
| 336 | 12% | 96% | |
| 337 | 0% | 84% | |
| 338 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 339 | 0% | 84% | |
| 340 | 0% | 84% | |
| 341 | 0.2% | 84% | |
| 342 | 7% | 84% | |
| 343 | 12% | 77% | |
| 344 | 0.2% | 65% | |
| 345 | 0% | 65% | |
| 346 | 0% | 65% | |
| 347 | 0.6% | 65% | |
| 348 | 0% | 64% | |
| 349 | 6% | 64% | |
| 350 | 1.0% | 58% | |
| 351 | 0.1% | 57% | |
| 352 | 0.1% | 57% | |
| 353 | 1.5% | 57% | |
| 354 | 20% | 55% | |
| 355 | 0% | 35% | |
| 356 | 0.1% | 35% | Median |
| 357 | 0% | 35% | |
| 358 | 0.2% | 35% | |
| 359 | 3% | 35% | |
| 360 | 0.6% | 32% | |
| 361 | 4% | 32% | |
| 362 | 2% | 28% | |
| 363 | 0% | 26% | |
| 364 | 0.3% | 26% | |
| 365 | 0.1% | 25% | |
| 366 | 0% | 25% | |
| 367 | 0.1% | 25% | |
| 368 | 0.6% | 25% | |
| 369 | 2% | 25% | |
| 370 | 0.5% | 23% | |
| 371 | 0.1% | 22% | |
| 372 | 0.1% | 22% | |
| 373 | 4% | 22% | |
| 374 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 375 | 0.2% | 18% | |
| 376 | 2% | 18% | |
| 377 | 2% | 16% | |
| 378 | 3% | 14% | |
| 379 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 380 | 2% | 11% | |
| 381 | 3% | 9% | |
| 382 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 383 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 384 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 385 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 386 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 387 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 388 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 389 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 390 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 391 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 392 | 0% | 3% | |
| 393 | 0% | 3% | |
| 394 | 0% | 3% | |
| 395 | 0% | 3% | |
| 396 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 397 | 2% | 3% | |
| 398 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 399 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 400 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 401 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 402 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 403 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 404 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 405 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 406 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 407 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 408 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 409 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 410 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 411 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 412 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 413 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 414 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 415 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 294 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 295 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 296 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 297 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 298 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 299 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 300 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 302 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 303 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 304 | 0% | 98% | |
| 305 | 0% | 98% | |
| 306 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 307 | 0% | 98% | |
| 308 | 0% | 98% | |
| 309 | 0% | 98% | Last Result |
| 310 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 311 | 0% | 97% | |
| 312 | 0% | 97% | |
| 313 | 0% | 97% | |
| 314 | 0% | 97% | |
| 315 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 316 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 317 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 318 | 0% | 97% | |
| 319 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 320 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 321 | 0% | 97% | |
| 322 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 323 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 324 | 0% | 96% | |
| 325 | 0% | 96% | |
| 326 | 0% | 96% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 328 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 329 | 11% | 96% | |
| 330 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 331 | 0% | 85% | |
| 332 | 1.2% | 85% | |
| 333 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 334 | 0% | 84% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 336 | 10% | 83% | |
| 337 | 7% | 74% | |
| 338 | 0.1% | 67% | |
| 339 | 3% | 67% | |
| 340 | 1.0% | 64% | |
| 341 | 5% | 63% | |
| 342 | 0.1% | 58% | |
| 343 | 0.1% | 58% | |
| 344 | 0% | 58% | |
| 345 | 2% | 58% | |
| 346 | 1.0% | 56% | |
| 347 | 0% | 55% | |
| 348 | 0.1% | 55% | |
| 349 | 0% | 55% | |
| 350 | 21% | 55% | |
| 351 | 0.1% | 34% | Median |
| 352 | 0.5% | 34% | |
| 353 | 0.1% | 34% | |
| 354 | 2% | 34% | |
| 355 | 0.4% | 32% | |
| 356 | 2% | 32% | |
| 357 | 4% | 30% | |
| 358 | 0.5% | 26% | |
| 359 | 0% | 26% | |
| 360 | 0.3% | 26% | |
| 361 | 0.6% | 25% | |
| 362 | 0% | 25% | |
| 363 | 0.1% | 25% | |
| 364 | 0.2% | 25% | |
| 365 | 2% | 24% | |
| 366 | 0.5% | 23% | |
| 367 | 0% | 22% | |
| 368 | 2% | 22% | |
| 369 | 4% | 20% | |
| 370 | 2% | 16% | |
| 371 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 372 | 2% | 13% | |
| 373 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 374 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 375 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 376 | 2% | 10% | |
| 377 | 2% | 8% | |
| 378 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 379 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 380 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 381 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 382 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 383 | 0% | 4% | |
| 384 | 0% | 4% | |
| 385 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 386 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 387 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 388 | 0% | 3% | |
| 389 | 0% | 3% | |
| 390 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 391 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 392 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 393 | 2% | 2% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 395 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 398 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 400 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 401 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 402 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 403 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 404 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 405 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 406 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 407 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 258 | 0% | 100% | |
| 259 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 260 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 262 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 263 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 265 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 266 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 267 | 0% | 98% | |
| 268 | 0% | 98% | |
| 269 | 0% | 98% | |
| 270 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 272 | 0% | 98% | |
| 273 | 0% | 98% | |
| 274 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 275 | 0% | 98% | |
| 276 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 277 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 278 | 0.5% | 97% | Last Result |
| 279 | 0% | 96% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 281 | 0% | 96% | |
| 282 | 0% | 96% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 284 | 0% | 96% | |
| 285 | 0% | 96% | |
| 286 | 0% | 96% | |
| 287 | 12% | 96% | |
| 288 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 289 | 0% | 84% | |
| 290 | 2% | 84% | |
| 291 | 0% | 82% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 81% | |
| 293 | 0.2% | 81% | |
| 294 | 7% | 81% | |
| 295 | 0.2% | 74% | |
| 296 | 0% | 74% | |
| 297 | 0% | 74% | |
| 298 | 5% | 74% | |
| 299 | 0.2% | 69% | |
| 300 | 2% | 69% | |
| 301 | 10% | 66% | |
| 302 | 0.5% | 57% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 56% | |
| 304 | 0% | 56% | |
| 305 | 0.1% | 56% | |
| 306 | 0% | 56% | |
| 307 | 0.1% | 56% | |
| 308 | 20% | 56% | Median |
| 309 | 0% | 36% | |
| 310 | 0.2% | 36% | |
| 311 | 6% | 36% | |
| 312 | 0.1% | 29% | |
| 313 | 1.0% | 29% | |
| 314 | 0.2% | 28% | |
| 315 | 0.5% | 28% | |
| 316 | 2% | 28% | |
| 317 | 0.2% | 26% | |
| 318 | 2% | 26% | |
| 319 | 0% | 24% | |
| 320 | 4% | 24% | |
| 321 | 0.3% | 20% | |
| 322 | 0.2% | 20% | |
| 323 | 0.2% | 20% | |
| 324 | 0% | 19% | |
| 325 | 0.3% | 19% | |
| 326 | 0.1% | 19% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 328 | 2% | 19% | |
| 329 | 2% | 17% | |
| 330 | 2% | 15% | |
| 331 | 3% | 13% | |
| 332 | 2% | 10% | |
| 333 | 0.6% | 8% | |
| 334 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 335 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 336 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 337 | 0% | 6% | |
| 338 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 339 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 340 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 341 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 342 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 343 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 344 | 0% | 4% | |
| 345 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 346 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 347 | 0% | 3% | |
| 348 | 2% | 3% | |
| 349 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 351 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 353 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 355 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 357 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 358 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 359 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 360 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 361 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 362 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 363 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 364 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 249 | 0% | 100% | |
| 250 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 251 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 252 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 254 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 255 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 256 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 257 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 258 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 259 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 260 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 261 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 262 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 263 | 0% | 98% | |
| 264 | 0% | 98% | |
| 265 | 0% | 98% | |
| 266 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 267 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 268 | 0% | 97% | |
| 269 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 270 | 0% | 97% | |
| 271 | 0% | 97% | |
| 272 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 273 | 0% | 97% | |
| 274 | 0.3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 275 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 276 | 0% | 96% | |
| 277 | 0% | 96% | |
| 278 | 0% | 96% | |
| 279 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 280 | 11% | 96% | |
| 281 | 0% | 85% | |
| 282 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 283 | 1.2% | 85% | |
| 284 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 286 | 2% | 84% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 81% | |
| 288 | 0.4% | 81% | |
| 289 | 7% | 81% | |
| 290 | 5% | 74% | |
| 291 | 0.3% | 69% | |
| 292 | 2% | 69% | |
| 293 | 0% | 67% | |
| 294 | 10% | 67% | |
| 295 | 0.1% | 57% | |
| 296 | 1.0% | 57% | |
| 297 | 0.1% | 56% | |
| 298 | 0% | 56% | |
| 299 | 0.1% | 56% | |
| 300 | 0.1% | 56% | |
| 301 | 0% | 56% | |
| 302 | 0.9% | 56% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 55% | Median |
| 304 | 20% | 55% | |
| 305 | 0% | 34% | |
| 306 | 0% | 34% | |
| 307 | 4% | 34% | |
| 308 | 2% | 30% | |
| 309 | 0.3% | 28% | |
| 310 | 2% | 28% | |
| 311 | 0% | 26% | |
| 312 | 2% | 26% | |
| 313 | 0.1% | 24% | |
| 314 | 0% | 24% | |
| 315 | 0.2% | 24% | |
| 316 | 4% | 24% | |
| 317 | 0.3% | 20% | |
| 318 | 0% | 19% | |
| 319 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 320 | 0% | 19% | |
| 321 | 0.3% | 19% | |
| 322 | 2% | 19% | |
| 323 | 4% | 17% | |
| 324 | 0.6% | 12% | |
| 325 | 3% | 12% | |
| 326 | 0.4% | 9% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 328 | 2% | 8% | |
| 329 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 330 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 332 | 0% | 6% | |
| 333 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 334 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 336 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 337 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 338 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 339 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 340 | 0% | 3% | |
| 341 | 0% | 3% | |
| 342 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 343 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 344 | 2% | 3% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 349 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 353 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 355 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 357 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 358 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 249 | 0% | 100% | |
| 250 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 251 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 252 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 254 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 255 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 256 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 257 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 258 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 259 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 260 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 261 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 262 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 263 | 0% | 98% | |
| 264 | 0% | 98% | |
| 265 | 0% | 98% | |
| 266 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 267 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 268 | 0% | 97% | |
| 269 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 270 | 0% | 97% | |
| 271 | 0% | 97% | |
| 272 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 273 | 0% | 97% | |
| 274 | 0.3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 275 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 276 | 0% | 96% | |
| 277 | 0% | 96% | |
| 278 | 0% | 96% | |
| 279 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 280 | 11% | 96% | |
| 281 | 0% | 85% | |
| 282 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 283 | 1.2% | 85% | |
| 284 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 286 | 2% | 84% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 81% | |
| 288 | 0.4% | 81% | |
| 289 | 7% | 81% | |
| 290 | 5% | 74% | |
| 291 | 0.3% | 69% | |
| 292 | 2% | 69% | |
| 293 | 0% | 67% | |
| 294 | 10% | 67% | |
| 295 | 0.1% | 57% | |
| 296 | 1.0% | 57% | |
| 297 | 0.1% | 56% | |
| 298 | 0% | 56% | |
| 299 | 0.1% | 56% | |
| 300 | 0.1% | 56% | |
| 301 | 0% | 56% | |
| 302 | 0.9% | 56% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 55% | Median |
| 304 | 20% | 55% | |
| 305 | 0% | 34% | |
| 306 | 0% | 34% | |
| 307 | 4% | 34% | |
| 308 | 2% | 30% | |
| 309 | 0.3% | 28% | |
| 310 | 2% | 28% | |
| 311 | 0% | 26% | |
| 312 | 2% | 26% | |
| 313 | 0.1% | 24% | |
| 314 | 0% | 24% | |
| 315 | 0.2% | 24% | |
| 316 | 4% | 24% | |
| 317 | 0.3% | 20% | |
| 318 | 0% | 19% | |
| 319 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 320 | 0% | 19% | |
| 321 | 0.3% | 19% | |
| 322 | 2% | 19% | |
| 323 | 4% | 17% | |
| 324 | 0.6% | 12% | |
| 325 | 3% | 12% | |
| 326 | 0.4% | 9% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 328 | 2% | 8% | |
| 329 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 330 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 332 | 0% | 6% | |
| 333 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 334 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 336 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 337 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 338 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 339 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 340 | 0% | 3% | |
| 341 | 0% | 3% | |
| 342 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 343 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 344 | 2% | 3% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 349 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 353 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 355 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 357 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 358 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 242 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 243 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 244 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 245 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 246 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 247 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 248 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 249 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 250 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 252 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 253 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 254 | 0% | 98% | |
| 255 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 256 | 0% | 98% | |
| 257 | 0% | 98% | |
| 258 | 0% | 98% | |
| 259 | 0% | 98% | |
| 260 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 262 | 0% | 97% | |
| 263 | 0% | 97% | |
| 264 | 0% | 97% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 266 | 0% | 97% | |
| 267 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 268 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 269 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 270 | 0% | 97% | |
| 271 | 11% | 97% | |
| 272 | 1.3% | 86% | |
| 273 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 274 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 277 | 0% | 84% | |
| 278 | 0% | 84% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 280 | 10% | 84% | |
| 281 | 0% | 74% | |
| 282 | 7% | 74% | |
| 283 | 0.3% | 67% | |
| 284 | 3% | 67% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 65% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 65% | |
| 287 | 0% | 65% | |
| 288 | 0.5% | 64% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 64% | |
| 290 | 20% | 64% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 44% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 44% | |
| 293 | 3% | 44% | Median |
| 294 | 0.8% | 41% | |
| 295 | 6% | 40% | |
| 296 | 1.5% | 35% | |
| 297 | 2% | 33% | |
| 298 | 0.1% | 31% | |
| 299 | 0.1% | 31% | |
| 300 | 0% | 31% | |
| 301 | 0.3% | 31% | Last Result |
| 302 | 4% | 31% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 27% | |
| 304 | 0.3% | 27% | |
| 305 | 2% | 27% | |
| 306 | 0% | 25% | |
| 307 | 2% | 25% | |
| 308 | 0.1% | 23% | |
| 309 | 0.1% | 23% | |
| 310 | 0.1% | 23% | |
| 311 | 0.6% | 23% | |
| 312 | 4% | 22% | |
| 313 | 0.1% | 18% | |
| 314 | 2% | 18% | |
| 315 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 316 | 1.5% | 16% | |
| 317 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 318 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 319 | 2% | 14% | |
| 320 | 0.7% | 12% | |
| 321 | 4% | 11% | |
| 322 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 323 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 324 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 325 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 326 | 2% | 6% | Majority |
| 327 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 328 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 329 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 330 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 342 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 344 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 234 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 237 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 238 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 239 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 240 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 241 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 242 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 243 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 244 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 245 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 246 | 0% | 98% | |
| 247 | 0% | 98% | |
| 248 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 249 | 0% | 98% | |
| 250 | 0% | 98% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 253 | 0% | 98% | |
| 254 | 0% | 98% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 256 | 0% | 97% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 258 | 0% | 97% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 262 | 0% | 97% | |
| 263 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 264 | 11% | 97% | |
| 265 | 0% | 86% | |
| 266 | 0.3% | 86% | |
| 267 | 0% | 86% | |
| 268 | 1.3% | 86% | |
| 269 | 0.2% | 84% | |
| 270 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 272 | 0% | 84% | |
| 273 | 10% | 84% | |
| 274 | 0.1% | 74% | |
| 275 | 0.2% | 74% | |
| 276 | 0% | 74% | |
| 277 | 7% | 74% | |
| 278 | 0.1% | 67% | |
| 279 | 0.3% | 67% | |
| 280 | 3% | 67% | |
| 281 | 0% | 64% | |
| 282 | 0.1% | 64% | |
| 283 | 0% | 64% | |
| 284 | 0% | 64% | |
| 285 | 1.0% | 64% | |
| 286 | 20% | 63% | |
| 287 | 5% | 43% | |
| 288 | 2% | 38% | Median |
| 289 | 1.4% | 36% | |
| 290 | 2% | 34% | |
| 291 | 0.5% | 32% | |
| 292 | 0% | 32% | |
| 293 | 0.5% | 32% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 31% | |
| 295 | 0.2% | 31% | |
| 296 | 0.1% | 31% | |
| 297 | 2% | 31% | Last Result |
| 298 | 4% | 29% | |
| 299 | 0.1% | 25% | |
| 300 | 0.3% | 25% | |
| 301 | 0.2% | 25% | |
| 302 | 0% | 25% | |
| 303 | 2% | 25% | |
| 304 | 0.5% | 23% | |
| 305 | 0% | 22% | |
| 306 | 2% | 22% | |
| 307 | 0% | 20% | |
| 308 | 4% | 20% | |
| 309 | 0.2% | 16% | |
| 310 | 0.6% | 16% | |
| 311 | 2% | 15% | |
| 312 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 313 | 2% | 14% | |
| 314 | 0.4% | 11% | |
| 315 | 3% | 11% | |
| 316 | 0% | 8% | |
| 317 | 2% | 8% | |
| 318 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 319 | 0% | 5% | |
| 320 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 321 | 0% | 4% | |
| 322 | 3% | 4% | |
| 323 | 0% | 2% | |
| 324 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 325 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 326 | 0.6% | 1.5% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 331 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 336 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 338 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 236 | 0% | 100% | |
| 237 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 238 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 239 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 241 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 242 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 243 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 244 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 245 | 0% | 98% | |
| 246 | 0% | 98% | |
| 247 | 0% | 98% | |
| 248 | 0% | 98% | |
| 249 | 0% | 98% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 251 | 0% | 98% | |
| 252 | 2% | 98% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 254 | 0% | 96% | |
| 255 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 256 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 257 | 0% | 94% | |
| 258 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 259 | 0% | 94% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 261 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 263 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 265 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 266 | 0% | 93% | |
| 267 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 268 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 269 | 0% | 92% | |
| 270 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 271 | 6% | 91% | |
| 272 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 273 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 274 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 275 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 276 | 3% | 83% | |
| 277 | 0.3% | 80% | |
| 278 | 0.2% | 80% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 80% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 80% | |
| 281 | 3% | 80% | |
| 282 | 24% | 76% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 53% | |
| 284 | 9% | 53% | |
| 285 | 0.3% | 44% | |
| 286 | 0% | 44% | |
| 287 | 0% | 43% | Median |
| 288 | 0.2% | 43% | |
| 289 | 0% | 43% | |
| 290 | 0.3% | 43% | |
| 291 | 0.4% | 43% | |
| 292 | 2% | 43% | |
| 293 | 2% | 41% | |
| 294 | 0% | 38% | |
| 295 | 0.2% | 38% | |
| 296 | 7% | 38% | |
| 297 | 0% | 31% | |
| 298 | 0.5% | 31% | |
| 299 | 1.0% | 31% | |
| 300 | 0% | 30% | |
| 301 | 0.7% | 30% | |
| 302 | 0.2% | 29% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 29% | |
| 304 | 0.3% | 29% | |
| 305 | 0.2% | 29% | |
| 306 | 0.1% | 28% | |
| 307 | 2% | 28% | |
| 308 | 0.6% | 26% | |
| 309 | 11% | 25% | |
| 310 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 311 | 0% | 15% | |
| 312 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 313 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 314 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 315 | 0% | 14% | |
| 316 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 317 | 11% | 14% | |
| 318 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 319 | 0% | 3% | |
| 320 | 0% | 3% | |
| 321 | 0% | 3% | |
| 322 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 323 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 324 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 325 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 326 | 0.1% | 1.3% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 328 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 329 | 0% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 330 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 331 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 332 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 334 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 341 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 342 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 236 | 0% | 100% | |
| 237 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 238 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 239 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 241 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 242 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 243 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 244 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 245 | 0% | 98% | |
| 246 | 0% | 98% | |
| 247 | 0% | 98% | |
| 248 | 0% | 98% | |
| 249 | 0% | 98% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 251 | 0% | 98% | |
| 252 | 2% | 98% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 254 | 0% | 96% | |
| 255 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 256 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 257 | 0% | 94% | |
| 258 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 259 | 0% | 94% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 261 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 263 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 265 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 266 | 0% | 93% | |
| 267 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 268 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 269 | 0% | 92% | |
| 270 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 271 | 6% | 91% | |
| 272 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 273 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 274 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 275 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 276 | 3% | 83% | |
| 277 | 0.3% | 80% | |
| 278 | 0.2% | 80% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 80% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 80% | |
| 281 | 3% | 80% | |
| 282 | 24% | 76% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 53% | |
| 284 | 9% | 53% | |
| 285 | 0.3% | 44% | |
| 286 | 0% | 44% | |
| 287 | 0% | 43% | Median |
| 288 | 0.2% | 43% | |
| 289 | 0% | 43% | |
| 290 | 0.3% | 43% | |
| 291 | 0.4% | 43% | |
| 292 | 2% | 43% | |
| 293 | 2% | 41% | |
| 294 | 0% | 38% | |
| 295 | 0.2% | 38% | |
| 296 | 7% | 38% | |
| 297 | 0% | 31% | |
| 298 | 0.5% | 31% | |
| 299 | 1.0% | 31% | |
| 300 | 0% | 30% | |
| 301 | 0.7% | 30% | |
| 302 | 0.2% | 29% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 29% | |
| 304 | 0.3% | 29% | |
| 305 | 0.2% | 29% | |
| 306 | 0.1% | 28% | |
| 307 | 2% | 28% | |
| 308 | 0.6% | 26% | |
| 309 | 11% | 25% | |
| 310 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 311 | 0% | 15% | |
| 312 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 313 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 314 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 315 | 0% | 14% | |
| 316 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 317 | 11% | 14% | |
| 318 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 319 | 0% | 3% | |
| 320 | 0% | 3% | |
| 321 | 0% | 3% | |
| 322 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 323 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 324 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 325 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 326 | 0.1% | 1.3% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 328 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 329 | 0% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 330 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 331 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 332 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 334 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 341 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 342 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 221 | 0% | 100% | |
| 222 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 223 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 224 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 225 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 226 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 227 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 228 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 232 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 234 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 237 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 238 | 0% | 98% | |
| 239 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 242 | 0% | 98% | |
| 243 | 0% | 98% | |
| 244 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 245 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 246 | 2% | 97% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 248 | 0% | 94% | |
| 249 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 251 | 0% | 94% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 253 | 2% | 94% | |
| 254 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 256 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 258 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 259 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 260 | 0.3% | 90% | |
| 261 | 1.0% | 90% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 263 | 0.5% | 89% | |
| 264 | 0% | 88% | |
| 265 | 0.4% | 88% | |
| 266 | 4% | 88% | |
| 267 | 0.2% | 84% | |
| 268 | 20% | 84% | |
| 269 | 0% | 64% | |
| 270 | 0.1% | 64% | |
| 271 | 0.2% | 64% | |
| 272 | 0.8% | 64% | |
| 273 | 2% | 63% | |
| 274 | 0.5% | 61% | |
| 275 | 4% | 60% | |
| 276 | 2% | 56% | |
| 277 | 0.2% | 54% | Median |
| 278 | 3% | 54% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 51% | |
| 280 | 4% | 51% | |
| 281 | 0% | 47% | |
| 282 | 0% | 47% | |
| 283 | 0.6% | 47% | |
| 284 | 0.1% | 47% | |
| 285 | 1.4% | 47% | |
| 286 | 0.3% | 45% | |
| 287 | 2% | 45% | |
| 288 | 0% | 43% | |
| 289 | 12% | 43% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 32% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 31% | |
| 292 | 0% | 31% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 31% | |
| 294 | 0% | 31% | |
| 295 | 0.2% | 31% | |
| 296 | 2% | 31% | |
| 297 | 0.1% | 29% | |
| 298 | 0% | 29% | |
| 299 | 0.1% | 29% | |
| 300 | 11% | 29% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 18% | |
| 302 | 0.5% | 18% | |
| 303 | 10% | 17% | |
| 304 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 305 | 2% | 7% | |
| 306 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 307 | 0% | 4% | |
| 308 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 309 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 310 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 311 | 0% | 3% | |
| 312 | 0% | 3% | |
| 313 | 0% | 3% | |
| 314 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 315 | 0% | 3% | |
| 316 | 0% | 3% | |
| 317 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 318 | 0% | 2% | |
| 319 | 0% | 2% | |
| 320 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 321 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 322 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 323 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 324 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 325 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0.6% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 339 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0% | |
| 353 | 0% | 0% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0% | |
| 355 | 0% | 0% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Conservative Party – Brexit Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 215 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 216 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 217 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 218 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 219 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 220 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 221 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 222 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 223 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 224 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 225 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 226 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 227 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 228 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 229 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 231 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 232 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 233 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 234 | 0% | 97% | |
| 235 | 0% | 97% | |
| 236 | 0% | 97% | |
| 237 | 0% | 97% | |
| 238 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 240 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 242 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 243 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 244 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 245 | 0% | 94% | |
| 246 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 247 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 248 | 3% | 93% | |
| 249 | 2% | 90% | |
| 250 | 0.5% | 89% | |
| 251 | 2% | 88% | |
| 252 | 1.4% | 86% | |
| 253 | 3% | 84% | |
| 254 | 0.2% | 82% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 82% | |
| 256 | 4% | 81% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 78% | |
| 258 | 0.1% | 78% | |
| 259 | 0.5% | 78% | |
| 260 | 2% | 77% | |
| 261 | 0.6% | 75% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 75% | |
| 263 | 0% | 75% | |
| 264 | 0% | 75% | |
| 265 | 0.3% | 75% | |
| 266 | 0.4% | 74% | |
| 267 | 2% | 74% | |
| 268 | 3% | 72% | |
| 269 | 0.5% | 68% | |
| 270 | 3% | 68% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 65% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 65% | |
| 273 | 0.1% | 65% | Median |
| 274 | 0% | 65% | |
| 275 | 20% | 65% | |
| 276 | 1.4% | 45% | |
| 277 | 0.2% | 43% | |
| 278 | 0.2% | 43% | |
| 279 | 2% | 43% | |
| 280 | 5% | 41% | |
| 281 | 0% | 36% | |
| 282 | 0% | 36% | |
| 283 | 0.2% | 36% | |
| 284 | 0% | 35% | |
| 285 | 2% | 35% | |
| 286 | 10% | 33% | |
| 287 | 7% | 23% | |
| 288 | 0.2% | 16% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 290 | 0% | 16% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 293 | 11% | 16% | |
| 294 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 295 | 0% | 4% | |
| 296 | 0% | 4% | |
| 297 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 298 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 299 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 300 | 0% | 3% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 302 | 0% | 3% | |
| 303 | 0% | 3% | |
| 304 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 305 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 306 | 0% | 3% | |
| 307 | 0% | 3% | |
| 308 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 309 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 310 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 311 | 0% | 3% | |
| 312 | 0% | 3% | |
| 313 | 0% | 3% | |
| 314 | 0% | 3% | |
| 315 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 316 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 317 | 1.1% | 2% | Last Result |
| 318 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 320 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 321 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 322 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 328 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 217 | 0% | 100% | |
| 218 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 219 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 220 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 222 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 223 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 224 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 225 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 226 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 228 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 231 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 232 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 233 | 0% | 98% | |
| 234 | 0% | 98% | |
| 235 | 0% | 98% | |
| 236 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 238 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 239 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 240 | 0% | 97% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 242 | 2% | 96% | |
| 243 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 244 | 0% | 94% | |
| 245 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 246 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 249 | 2% | 93% | |
| 250 | 0% | 91% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 252 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 253 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 254 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 255 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 256 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 257 | 0.8% | 89% | |
| 258 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 259 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 260 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 261 | 0% | 88% | |
| 262 | 4% | 88% | |
| 263 | 0.5% | 84% | |
| 264 | 20% | 83% | |
| 265 | 3% | 63% | |
| 266 | 0.1% | 61% | |
| 267 | 3% | 61% | |
| 268 | 0.1% | 58% | |
| 269 | 0% | 58% | |
| 270 | 0.7% | 58% | |
| 271 | 2% | 57% | |
| 272 | 2% | 55% | Median |
| 273 | 0.1% | 53% | |
| 274 | 0.7% | 53% | |
| 275 | 2% | 52% | |
| 276 | 4% | 50% | |
| 277 | 1.4% | 47% | |
| 278 | 0% | 45% | |
| 279 | 2% | 45% | |
| 280 | 0% | 43% | |
| 281 | 5% | 43% | |
| 282 | 0.3% | 38% | |
| 283 | 0% | 38% | |
| 284 | 7% | 38% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 32% | |
| 286 | 0.2% | 31% | |
| 287 | 0.9% | 31% | |
| 288 | 0% | 30% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 30% | |
| 290 | 0% | 30% | |
| 291 | 0.2% | 30% | |
| 292 | 1.3% | 30% | |
| 293 | 11% | 29% | |
| 294 | 0.5% | 18% | |
| 295 | 0% | 17% | |
| 296 | 10% | 17% | |
| 297 | 0% | 7% | |
| 298 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 299 | 0% | 7% | |
| 300 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 301 | 2% | 7% | |
| 302 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 304 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 305 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 306 | 0% | 3% | |
| 307 | 0% | 3% | |
| 308 | 0% | 3% | |
| 309 | 0% | 3% | |
| 310 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 311 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 312 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 313 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 314 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 315 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 316 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 317 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 318 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 319 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 320 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 321 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 322 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 335 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 198 | 0% | 100% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 200 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 201 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 202 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 203 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 204 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 205 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 206 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 207 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 211 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 213 | 0% | 98% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 217 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 218 | 0% | 97% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 220 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 222 | 11% | 97% | |
| 223 | 1.4% | 86% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 225 | 0% | 84% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 227 | 0% | 84% | |
| 228 | 0% | 84% | |
| 229 | 0% | 84% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 231 | 2% | 84% | |
| 232 | 0.1% | 82% | |
| 233 | 0% | 82% | |
| 234 | 7% | 82% | |
| 235 | 0% | 75% | |
| 236 | 0.2% | 75% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 74% | |
| 238 | 10% | 74% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 65% | |
| 240 | 0% | 65% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 65% | |
| 242 | 0.1% | 64% | |
| 243 | 3% | 64% | |
| 244 | 25% | 61% | |
| 245 | 2% | 36% | Median |
| 246 | 0% | 34% | |
| 247 | 0.3% | 34% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 34% | |
| 249 | 0.9% | 34% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 33% | |
| 251 | 0% | 33% | |
| 252 | 4% | 33% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 29% | |
| 254 | 2% | 29% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 27% | |
| 256 | 0.2% | 27% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 27% | |
| 258 | 1.4% | 27% | |
| 259 | 4% | 25% | |
| 260 | 0.2% | 22% | |
| 261 | 2% | 21% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 20% | |
| 263 | 0.1% | 20% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 265 | 0.2% | 19% | |
| 266 | 0.3% | 19% | Last Result |
| 267 | 4% | 19% | |
| 268 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 269 | 2% | 15% | |
| 270 | 0% | 12% | |
| 271 | 0.6% | 12% | |
| 272 | 0% | 12% | |
| 273 | 5% | 12% | |
| 274 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 275 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 277 | 2% | 5% | |
| 278 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 280 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 281 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 282 | 0% | 2% | |
| 283 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 284 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 286 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 288 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 290 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 291 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 292 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 294 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 295 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 296 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 297 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 298 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 299 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 300 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Change UK
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 191 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 193 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 194 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 196 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 198 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 199 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 200 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 201 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 203 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 205 | 0% | 98% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 209 | 0% | 98% | |
| 210 | 0% | 98% | |
| 211 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 213 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 214 | 0% | 97% | |
| 215 | 11% | 97% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 217 | 0% | 85% | |
| 218 | 0% | 85% | |
| 219 | 1.2% | 85% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 222 | 0.2% | 84% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 224 | 0% | 84% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 227 | 2% | 84% | |
| 228 | 0% | 81% | |
| 229 | 7% | 81% | |
| 230 | 0.2% | 75% | |
| 231 | 10% | 74% | |
| 232 | 0% | 65% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 65% | |
| 234 | 0.3% | 64% | |
| 235 | 2% | 64% | |
| 236 | 5% | 62% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 57% | |
| 238 | 0.2% | 57% | |
| 239 | 1.0% | 57% | |
| 240 | 21% | 56% | Median |
| 241 | 0.1% | 35% | |
| 242 | 2% | 35% | |
| 243 | 0.4% | 33% | |
| 244 | 0% | 33% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 33% | |
| 246 | 0.1% | 33% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 33% | |
| 248 | 4% | 32% | |
| 249 | 0.7% | 28% | |
| 250 | 2% | 28% | |
| 251 | 0.7% | 26% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 25% | |
| 253 | 2% | 25% | |
| 254 | 0% | 24% | |
| 255 | 4% | 23% | |
| 256 | 0.3% | 20% | |
| 257 | 0% | 19% | |
| 258 | 0% | 19% | |
| 259 | 0.6% | 19% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 261 | 2% | 19% | |
| 262 | 2% | 17% | Last Result |
| 263 | 3% | 15% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 265 | 2% | 12% | |
| 266 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 267 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 268 | 0% | 8% | |
| 269 | 2% | 8% | |
| 270 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 273 | 2% | 5% | |
| 274 | 0% | 3% | |
| 275 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 276 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 277 | 0% | 2% | |
| 278 | 0% | 2% | |
| 279 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 280 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 281 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 283 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 285 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 289 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 290 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 291 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 294 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 191 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 193 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 194 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 196 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 198 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 199 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 200 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 201 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 203 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 205 | 0% | 98% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 209 | 0% | 98% | |
| 210 | 0% | 98% | |
| 211 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 213 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 214 | 0% | 97% | |
| 215 | 11% | 97% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 217 | 0% | 85% | |
| 218 | 0% | 85% | |
| 219 | 1.2% | 85% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 222 | 0.2% | 84% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 224 | 0% | 84% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 227 | 2% | 84% | |
| 228 | 0% | 81% | |
| 229 | 7% | 81% | |
| 230 | 0.2% | 75% | |
| 231 | 10% | 74% | |
| 232 | 0% | 65% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 65% | |
| 234 | 0.3% | 64% | |
| 235 | 2% | 64% | |
| 236 | 5% | 62% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 57% | |
| 238 | 0.2% | 57% | |
| 239 | 1.0% | 57% | |
| 240 | 21% | 56% | Median |
| 241 | 0.1% | 35% | |
| 242 | 2% | 35% | |
| 243 | 0.4% | 33% | |
| 244 | 0% | 33% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 33% | |
| 246 | 0.1% | 33% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 33% | |
| 248 | 4% | 32% | |
| 249 | 0.7% | 28% | |
| 250 | 2% | 28% | |
| 251 | 0.7% | 26% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 25% | |
| 253 | 2% | 25% | |
| 254 | 0% | 24% | |
| 255 | 4% | 23% | |
| 256 | 0.3% | 20% | |
| 257 | 0% | 19% | |
| 258 | 0% | 19% | |
| 259 | 0.6% | 19% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 261 | 2% | 19% | |
| 262 | 2% | 17% | Last Result |
| 263 | 3% | 15% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 265 | 2% | 12% | |
| 266 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 267 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 268 | 0% | 8% | |
| 269 | 2% | 8% | |
| 270 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 273 | 2% | 5% | |
| 274 | 0% | 3% | |
| 275 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 276 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 277 | 0% | 2% | |
| 278 | 0% | 2% | |
| 279 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 280 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 281 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 283 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 285 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 289 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 290 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 291 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 294 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 178 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 181 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 182 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 183 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 184 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 185 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 187 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 188 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 189 | 0% | 98% | |
| 190 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 191 | 0% | 98% | |
| 192 | 0% | 98% | |
| 193 | 0% | 98% | |
| 194 | 2% | 98% | |
| 195 | 0% | 96% | |
| 196 | 0% | 96% | |
| 197 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 198 | 0% | 95% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 200 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 201 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 202 | 0% | 94% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 204 | 2% | 94% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 206 | 0% | 92% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 209 | 0% | 91% | |
| 210 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 212 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 213 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 214 | 0.3% | 90% | |
| 215 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 216 | 3% | 89% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 218 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 219 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 220 | 0.5% | 85% | |
| 221 | 0.6% | 84% | |
| 222 | 20% | 84% | |
| 223 | 2% | 64% | |
| 224 | 0.5% | 62% | |
| 225 | 0.2% | 61% | |
| 226 | 0% | 61% | |
| 227 | 8% | 61% | |
| 228 | 3% | 53% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 50% | Median |
| 230 | 2% | 50% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 48% | |
| 232 | 1.4% | 48% | |
| 233 | 0% | 47% | |
| 234 | 0.2% | 47% | |
| 235 | 0.3% | 47% | |
| 236 | 0.1% | 46% | |
| 237 | 0.5% | 46% | |
| 238 | 5% | 46% | |
| 239 | 0% | 41% | |
| 240 | 0% | 41% | |
| 241 | 7% | 40% | |
| 242 | 0.1% | 34% | |
| 243 | 2% | 34% | |
| 244 | 0.2% | 32% | |
| 245 | 0% | 32% | |
| 246 | 1.0% | 32% | |
| 247 | 0.8% | 31% | |
| 248 | 0.7% | 30% | |
| 249 | 0.2% | 29% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 29% | |
| 251 | 11% | 29% | |
| 252 | 2% | 18% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 254 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 255 | 0% | 16% | |
| 256 | 0% | 16% | |
| 257 | 2% | 15% | |
| 258 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 259 | 0% | 13% | |
| 260 | 0% | 13% | |
| 261 | 10% | 13% | |
| 262 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 263 | 0% | 3% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 266 | 0% | 3% | |
| 267 | 0% | 3% | |
| 268 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 269 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 270 | 0% | 2% | |
| 271 | 0% | 2% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 273 | 0% | 2% | |
| 274 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 275 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 276 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 277 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 278 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 279 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 280 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 281 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 283 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 285 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 289 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 290 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 291 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 292 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 293 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 294 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 295 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 296 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 297 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 298 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 299 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 300 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 301 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 302 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 303 | 0% | 0% | |
| 304 | 0% | 0% | |
| 305 | 0% | 0% | |
| 306 | 0% | 0% | |
| 307 | 0% | 0% | |
| 308 | 0% | 0% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0% | |
| 310 | 0% | 0% | |
| 311 | 0% | 0% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Conservative Party – Change UK
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 172 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 173 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 174 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 175 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 177 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 178 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 181 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 183 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 184 | 0% | 98% | |
| 185 | 0% | 98% | |
| 186 | 0% | 98% | |
| 187 | 0% | 98% | |
| 188 | 0% | 98% | |
| 189 | 0% | 98% | |
| 190 | 2% | 98% | |
| 191 | 0% | 96% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 194 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 197 | 0% | 94% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 200 | 2% | 94% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 202 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 204 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 208 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 209 | 0.4% | 90% | |
| 210 | 0% | 89% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 212 | 4% | 89% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 214 | 2% | 85% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 216 | 0.3% | 83% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 218 | 20% | 83% | |
| 219 | 5% | 63% | |
| 220 | 3% | 58% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 56% | |
| 222 | 0% | 56% | |
| 223 | 5% | 55% | |
| 224 | 1.5% | 50% | Median |
| 225 | 0% | 49% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 49% | |
| 227 | 2% | 49% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 47% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 46% | |
| 230 | 5% | 46% | |
| 231 | 0.2% | 41% | |
| 232 | 0% | 41% | |
| 233 | 0.5% | 41% | |
| 234 | 0.1% | 41% | |
| 235 | 2% | 40% | |
| 236 | 7% | 39% | |
| 237 | 0% | 32% | |
| 238 | 0.7% | 32% | |
| 239 | 0.8% | 31% | |
| 240 | 0% | 30% | |
| 241 | 0% | 30% | |
| 242 | 1.0% | 30% | |
| 243 | 0.3% | 29% | |
| 244 | 11% | 29% | |
| 245 | 0.3% | 18% | |
| 246 | 0.2% | 18% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 18% | |
| 248 | 2% | 18% | |
| 249 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 251 | 0% | 15% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 253 | 1.3% | 14% | |
| 254 | 10% | 13% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 256 | 0% | 3% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 258 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 261 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 262 | 0% | 2% | |
| 263 | 0% | 2% | |
| 264 | 0% | 2% | |
| 265 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 266 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 267 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 268 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 269 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 270 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 271 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 273 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 274 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 275 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 276 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 278 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 279 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 283 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 285 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 289 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 290 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 291 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 292 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 293 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 295 | 0% | 0% | |
| 296 | 0% | 0% | |
| 297 | 0% | 0% | |
| 298 | 0% | 0% | |
| 299 | 0% | 0% | |
| 300 | 0% | 0% | |
| 301 | 0% | 0% | |
| 302 | 0% | 0% | |
| 303 | 0% | 0% | |
| 304 | 0% | 0% | |
| 305 | 0% | 0% | |
| 306 | 0% | 0% | |
| 307 | 0% | 0% | |
| 308 | 0% | 0% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0% | |
| 310 | 0% | 0% | |
| 311 | 0% | 0% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Conservative Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 172 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 173 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 174 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 175 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 177 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 178 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 181 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 183 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 184 | 0% | 98% | |
| 185 | 0% | 98% | |
| 186 | 0% | 98% | |
| 187 | 0% | 98% | |
| 188 | 0% | 98% | |
| 189 | 0% | 98% | |
| 190 | 2% | 98% | |
| 191 | 0% | 96% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 194 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 197 | 0% | 94% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 200 | 2% | 94% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 202 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 204 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 208 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 209 | 0.4% | 90% | |
| 210 | 0% | 89% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 212 | 4% | 89% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 214 | 2% | 85% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 216 | 0.3% | 83% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 218 | 20% | 83% | |
| 219 | 5% | 63% | |
| 220 | 3% | 58% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 56% | |
| 222 | 0% | 56% | |
| 223 | 5% | 55% | |
| 224 | 1.5% | 50% | Median |
| 225 | 0% | 49% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 49% | |
| 227 | 2% | 49% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 47% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 46% | |
| 230 | 5% | 46% | |
| 231 | 0.2% | 41% | |
| 232 | 0% | 41% | |
| 233 | 0.5% | 41% | |
| 234 | 0.1% | 41% | |
| 235 | 2% | 40% | |
| 236 | 7% | 39% | |
| 237 | 0% | 32% | |
| 238 | 0.7% | 32% | |
| 239 | 0.8% | 31% | |
| 240 | 0% | 30% | |
| 241 | 0% | 30% | |
| 242 | 1.0% | 30% | |
| 243 | 0.3% | 29% | |
| 244 | 11% | 29% | |
| 245 | 0.3% | 18% | |
| 246 | 0.2% | 18% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 18% | |
| 248 | 2% | 18% | |
| 249 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 251 | 0% | 15% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 253 | 1.3% | 14% | |
| 254 | 10% | 13% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 256 | 0% | 3% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 258 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 261 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 262 | 0% | 2% | |
| 263 | 0% | 2% | |
| 264 | 0% | 2% | |
| 265 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 266 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 267 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 268 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 269 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 270 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 271 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 273 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 274 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 275 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 276 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 278 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 279 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 283 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 285 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 289 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 290 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 291 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 292 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 293 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 295 | 0% | 0% | |
| 296 | 0% | 0% | |
| 297 | 0% | 0% | |
| 298 | 0% | 0% | |
| 299 | 0% | 0% | |
| 300 | 0% | 0% | |
| 301 | 0% | 0% | |
| 302 | 0% | 0% | |
| 303 | 0% | 0% | |
| 304 | 0% | 0% | |
| 305 | 0% | 0% | |
| 306 | 0% | 0% | |
| 307 | 0% | 0% | |
| 308 | 0% | 0% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0% | |
| 310 | 0% | 0% | |
| 311 | 0% | 0% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: ComRes
- Commissioner(s): Britain Elects
- Fieldwork period: 26–28 July 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2004
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.52%