Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 29–30 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 33.3% 31.9–34.6% 31.6–35.0% 31.2–35.3% 30.6–36.0%
Labour Party 40.0% 22.8% 21.7–24.1% 21.4–24.4% 21.1–24.7% 20.5–25.3%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 19.7% 18.7–20.9% 18.4–21.2% 18.1–21.5% 17.6–22.1%
Brexit Party 0.0% 9.3% 8.6–10.2% 8.3–10.5% 8.2–10.7% 7.8–11.1%
Green Party 1.6% 6.2% 5.6–7.0% 5.4–7.2% 5.3–7.4% 5.0–7.7%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 5.2% 4.6–5.9% 4.4–6.1% 4.3–6.2% 4.0–6.6%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 317 313–328 308–331 303–339 288–349
Labour Party 262 167 156–171 150–183 150–192 139–196
Liberal Democrats 12 71 62–72 60–74 60–76 59–77
Brexit Party 0 12 9–19 7–20 7–20 5–20
Green Party 1 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Scottish National Party 35 54 54 54 53–54 52–54
Plaid Cymru 4 7 5–10 4–10 4–11 4–12
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.7%  
282 0% 99.7%  
283 0.1% 99.7%  
284 0% 99.6%  
285 0% 99.6%  
286 0% 99.6%  
287 0.1% 99.6%  
288 0% 99.5%  
289 0% 99.5%  
290 0% 99.5%  
291 0.4% 99.5%  
292 0% 99.1%  
293 0% 99.1%  
294 0.1% 99.1%  
295 0.1% 99.0%  
296 0% 98.9%  
297 0.1% 98.9%  
298 0% 98.8%  
299 0% 98.8%  
300 0% 98.8%  
301 0.1% 98.8%  
302 0.1% 98.7%  
303 1.3% 98.6%  
304 0.3% 97%  
305 1.3% 97%  
306 0% 96%  
307 0.3% 96%  
308 2% 95%  
309 0.4% 93%  
310 0.3% 93%  
311 2% 92%  
312 0.2% 91%  
313 1.1% 91%  
314 4% 90%  
315 1.0% 86%  
316 2% 85%  
317 55% 83% Last Result, Median
318 4% 27%  
319 0.2% 23%  
320 2% 23%  
321 1.2% 21%  
322 0.2% 20%  
323 0.4% 19%  
324 1.2% 19%  
325 0.1% 18%  
326 5% 18% Majority
327 2% 13%  
328 1.2% 11%  
329 0.1% 10%  
330 0.1% 10%  
331 5% 9%  
332 0.1% 5%  
333 0% 5%  
334 0.1% 5%  
335 0.6% 5%  
336 0.2% 4%  
337 0% 4%  
338 0% 4%  
339 2% 4%  
340 0.2% 1.4%  
341 0% 1.2%  
342 0.3% 1.2%  
343 0.1% 0.9%  
344 0% 0.8%  
345 0% 0.8%  
346 0.2% 0.8%  
347 0% 0.6%  
348 0% 0.6%  
349 0.2% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0.1% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.8%  
128 0% 99.8%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.8%  
131 0% 99.8%  
132 0.1% 99.8%  
133 0% 99.7%  
134 0% 99.7%  
135 0% 99.7%  
136 0% 99.7%  
137 0% 99.7%  
138 0% 99.7%  
139 0.1% 99.6%  
140 0.1% 99.5%  
141 0.2% 99.4%  
142 0.1% 99.2%  
143 0% 99.1%  
144 0% 99.1%  
145 0% 99.1%  
146 0.1% 99.1%  
147 0% 99.0%  
148 0.5% 99.0%  
149 0.3% 98.5%  
150 5% 98%  
151 0.9% 93%  
152 0.1% 92%  
153 0.2% 92%  
154 0% 92%  
155 0.1% 92%  
156 2% 92%  
157 5% 90%  
158 1.5% 85%  
159 4% 83%  
160 0.2% 79%  
161 0.9% 79%  
162 8% 78%  
163 0.5% 70%  
164 3% 69%  
165 0.6% 66%  
166 0.2% 66%  
167 50% 65% Median
168 2% 16%  
169 1.4% 14%  
170 0.1% 12%  
171 2% 12%  
172 0.3% 10%  
173 0.1% 10%  
174 1.3% 10%  
175 0.4% 8%  
176 0.8% 8%  
177 0.1% 7%  
178 0.1% 7%  
179 0.2% 7%  
180 0.1% 7%  
181 0.1% 6%  
182 0% 6%  
183 2% 6%  
184 0.1% 4%  
185 0.1% 4%  
186 0.4% 4%  
187 0% 4%  
188 0% 4%  
189 0% 4%  
190 0.7% 4%  
191 0% 3%  
192 2% 3%  
193 0% 0.8%  
194 0% 0.8%  
195 0% 0.7%  
196 0.3% 0.7%  
197 0% 0.5%  
198 0% 0.5%  
199 0% 0.4%  
200 0% 0.4%  
201 0.1% 0.4%  
202 0% 0.3%  
203 0% 0.3%  
204 0% 0.2%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0% 0.2%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0.1% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 2% 99.7%  
60 3% 98%  
61 0.6% 95%  
62 5% 94%  
63 3% 89%  
64 0.6% 87%  
65 0.9% 86%  
66 3% 85%  
67 0.7% 83%  
68 8% 82%  
69 0.1% 73%  
70 2% 73%  
71 60% 71% Median
72 4% 11%  
73 0.4% 8%  
74 3% 7%  
75 0.6% 4%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.5% 1.0%  
78 0.1% 0.5%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 0% 99.6%  
5 2% 99.6%  
6 0.2% 98%  
7 4% 98%  
8 0.5% 93%  
9 4% 93%  
10 2% 89%  
11 0.7% 87%  
12 54% 86% Median
13 0.9% 33%  
14 2% 32%  
15 1.3% 30%  
16 0.8% 29%  
17 2% 28%  
18 6% 26%  
19 14% 20%  
20 5% 6%  
21 0% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.4%  
23 0% 0.3%  
24 0% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.1% 100%  
3 5% 99.9%  
4 95% 95% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0% 99.8%  
51 0.1% 99.7%  
52 0.3% 99.6%  
53 3% 99.4%  
54 96% 96% Median
55 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 8% 100% Last Result
5 9% 92%  
6 0% 83%  
7 67% 83% Median
8 1.1% 16%  
9 1.2% 15%  
10 11% 14%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.6%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 388 100% 381–394 379–396 369–402 360–414
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 388 100% 381–394 379–396 369–402 360–414
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 378 100% 371–392 366–393 362–400 351–410
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 371 100% 367–382 362–385 357–393 341–403
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 324 24% 318–338 312–339 308–346 298–356
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 317 18% 313–328 308–331 303–339 288–349
Conservative Party 317 317 18% 313–328 308–331 303–339 288–349
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 299 0.6% 282–302 280–313 280–316 268–326
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 292 0.4% 273–294 272–306 272–309 261–318
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 245 0% 228–248 226–259 226–262 214–272
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 238 0% 219–241 218–252 218–256 207–264
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 238 0% 219–241 218–252 218–256 207–264
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 228 0% 217–235 214–241 214–250 201–256
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 221 0% 210–225 204–237 204–246 193–249
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 174 0% 163–181 160–187 160–196 147–203
Labour Party – Change UK 262 167 0% 156–171 150–183 150–192 139–196
Labour Party 262 167 0% 156–171 150–183 150–192 139–196

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0.1% 100%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.8%  
352 0% 99.8%  
353 0% 99.8%  
354 0% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.8%  
356 0% 99.7%  
357 0.1% 99.7%  
358 0% 99.6%  
359 0% 99.6%  
360 0.1% 99.6%  
361 0% 99.5%  
362 0% 99.5%  
363 0% 99.4%  
364 0% 99.4%  
365 0.1% 99.4%  
366 0.1% 99.4%  
367 0.6% 99.3%  
368 0.1% 98.7%  
369 1.3% 98.6%  
370 0% 97%  
371 0.2% 97%  
372 0% 97%  
373 0.9% 97%  
374 0.1% 96%  
375 0.7% 96%  
376 0% 95%  
377 0% 95%  
378 0.1% 95%  
379 0.6% 95%  
380 2% 94%  
381 3% 92%  
382 0.2% 89%  
383 0.1% 89%  
384 1.5% 89%  
385 0.5% 87%  
386 2% 87%  
387 0.2% 84%  
388 62% 84% Median
389 4% 22%  
390 1.0% 18%  
391 0.3% 17%  
392 0.3% 17%  
393 5% 16%  
394 5% 12%  
395 0.7% 6%  
396 0.8% 6%  
397 0% 5%  
398 0.2% 5%  
399 0.2% 5%  
400 0% 4%  
401 0.7% 4%  
402 2% 4%  
403 0.1% 1.4%  
404 0% 1.3%  
405 0% 1.2%  
406 0% 1.2%  
407 0% 1.2%  
408 0% 1.2%  
409 0.3% 1.1%  
410 0% 0.8%  
411 0% 0.8%  
412 0% 0.8%  
413 0.1% 0.8%  
414 0.3% 0.7%  
415 0.1% 0.4%  
416 0% 0.3%  
417 0% 0.3%  
418 0% 0.3%  
419 0% 0.3%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0.1% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0.1% 100%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.8%  
352 0% 99.8%  
353 0% 99.8%  
354 0% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.8%  
356 0% 99.7%  
357 0.1% 99.7%  
358 0% 99.6%  
359 0% 99.6%  
360 0.1% 99.6%  
361 0% 99.5%  
362 0% 99.5%  
363 0% 99.4%  
364 0% 99.4%  
365 0.1% 99.4%  
366 0.1% 99.4%  
367 0.6% 99.3%  
368 0.1% 98.7%  
369 1.3% 98.6%  
370 0% 97%  
371 0.2% 97%  
372 0% 97%  
373 0.9% 97%  
374 0.1% 96%  
375 0.7% 96%  
376 0% 95%  
377 0% 95%  
378 0.1% 95%  
379 0.6% 95%  
380 2% 94%  
381 3% 92%  
382 0.2% 89%  
383 0.1% 89%  
384 1.5% 89%  
385 0.5% 87%  
386 2% 87%  
387 0.2% 84%  
388 62% 84% Median
389 4% 22%  
390 1.0% 18%  
391 0.3% 17%  
392 0.3% 17%  
393 5% 16%  
394 5% 12%  
395 0.7% 6%  
396 0.8% 6%  
397 0% 5%  
398 0.2% 5%  
399 0.2% 5%  
400 0% 4%  
401 0.7% 4%  
402 2% 4%  
403 0.1% 1.4%  
404 0% 1.3%  
405 0% 1.2%  
406 0% 1.2%  
407 0% 1.2%  
408 0% 1.2%  
409 0.3% 1.1%  
410 0% 0.8%  
411 0% 0.8%  
412 0% 0.8%  
413 0.1% 0.8%  
414 0.3% 0.7%  
415 0.1% 0.4%  
416 0% 0.3%  
417 0% 0.3%  
418 0% 0.3%  
419 0% 0.3%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0.1% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0.1% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0% 99.8%  
343 0% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0% 99.7%  
346 0.1% 99.7%  
347 0% 99.6%  
348 0.1% 99.6%  
349 0% 99.5%  
350 0% 99.5%  
351 0% 99.5%  
352 0.1% 99.5%  
353 0.4% 99.4%  
354 0% 99.0%  
355 0% 99.0%  
356 0% 98.9% Last Result
357 0% 98.9%  
358 0% 98.9%  
359 0% 98.9%  
360 0% 98.9%  
361 1.3% 98.9%  
362 0.1% 98%  
363 0% 97%  
364 0% 97%  
365 0.2% 97%  
366 4% 97%  
367 0.4% 94%  
368 0.3% 93%  
369 0.1% 93%  
370 0.3% 93%  
371 3% 92%  
372 0.6% 89%  
373 0.7% 89%  
374 0% 88%  
375 0.3% 88%  
376 8% 88%  
377 2% 80%  
378 50% 78% Median
379 4% 28%  
380 0.8% 24%  
381 2% 23%  
382 1.1% 21%  
383 0.3% 20%  
384 0.1% 20%  
385 0.9% 20%  
386 0.4% 19%  
387 0.2% 18%  
388 0.2% 18%  
389 0.5% 18%  
390 5% 17%  
391 2% 13%  
392 5% 10%  
393 2% 6%  
394 0% 4%  
395 0.2% 4%  
396 0% 4%  
397 0.1% 4%  
398 0% 4%  
399 0.4% 4%  
400 3% 4%  
401 0.2% 1.0%  
402 0% 0.9%  
403 0.1% 0.9%  
404 0% 0.8%  
405 0% 0.7%  
406 0% 0.7%  
407 0% 0.7%  
408 0% 0.6%  
409 0% 0.6%  
410 0.3% 0.6%  
411 0% 0.4%  
412 0% 0.4%  
413 0% 0.3%  
414 0.2% 0.3%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0.1% 0.1%  
427 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
331 0% 100%  
332 0.1% 99.9%  
333 0.1% 99.8%  
334 0.1% 99.8%  
335 0% 99.7%  
336 0% 99.7%  
337 0.1% 99.7%  
338 0% 99.6%  
339 0% 99.6%  
340 0% 99.6%  
341 0.1% 99.6%  
342 0% 99.5%  
343 0% 99.5%  
344 0% 99.5%  
345 0.4% 99.5%  
346 0% 99.1%  
347 0% 99.1%  
348 0.1% 99.1%  
349 0.1% 99.0%  
350 0% 98.9%  
351 0% 98.9%  
352 0% 98.8% Last Result
353 0% 98.8%  
354 0% 98.8%  
355 0% 98.8%  
356 0.1% 98.7%  
357 1.3% 98.6%  
358 0.3% 97%  
359 1.3% 97%  
360 0.3% 96%  
361 0% 95%  
362 2% 95%  
363 0.4% 93%  
364 2% 93%  
365 0% 91%  
366 0.1% 91%  
367 2% 91%  
368 4% 89%  
369 0.8% 85%  
370 2% 85%  
371 55% 82% Median
372 4% 27%  
373 0.2% 23%  
374 2% 23%  
375 1.2% 21%  
376 0.2% 20%  
377 0.4% 19%  
378 1.1% 19%  
379 0.1% 18%  
380 5% 18%  
381 2% 13%  
382 1.2% 11%  
383 0.1% 10%  
384 0.1% 10%  
385 5% 9%  
386 0.1% 5%  
387 0% 5%  
388 0.1% 5%  
389 0.6% 5%  
390 0.2% 4%  
391 0% 4%  
392 0% 4%  
393 2% 4%  
394 0.2% 1.4%  
395 0.2% 1.2%  
396 0.3% 1.0%  
397 0.1% 0.8%  
398 0% 0.7%  
399 0% 0.6%  
400 0% 0.6%  
401 0% 0.6%  
402 0% 0.6%  
403 0.2% 0.6%  
404 0.1% 0.4%  
405 0% 0.4%  
406 0.1% 0.3%  
407 0.1% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0.1% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.8%  
288 0% 99.8%  
289 0% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0% 99.7%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0% 99.6%  
294 0.1% 99.6%  
295 0% 99.5%  
296 0% 99.5%  
297 0% 99.5%  
298 0.1% 99.5%  
299 0.4% 99.4%  
300 0% 99.0%  
301 0% 99.0%  
302 0% 99.0%  
303 0% 98.9%  
304 0% 98.9%  
305 0% 98.9%  
306 0% 98.9%  
307 1.3% 98.9%  
308 0.1% 98%  
309 0% 97%  
310 0% 97%  
311 0.2% 97%  
312 4% 97%  
313 0.2% 94%  
314 0.5% 93%  
315 0.1% 93%  
316 0.3% 93%  
317 0.8% 92%  
318 3% 92%  
319 0.7% 89%  
320 0% 88%  
321 0.1% 88% Last Result
322 8% 88%  
323 2% 80%  
324 50% 78% Median
325 4% 28%  
326 0.7% 24% Majority
327 2% 23%  
328 1.3% 21%  
329 0.4% 20%  
330 0.1% 20%  
331 0.9% 20%  
332 0.4% 19%  
333 0.2% 18%  
334 0.2% 18%  
335 0.5% 18%  
336 5% 17%  
337 2% 13%  
338 5% 10%  
339 2% 6%  
340 0% 4%  
341 0.2% 4%  
342 0% 4%  
343 0.1% 4%  
344 0% 4%  
345 0.2% 4%  
346 3% 4%  
347 0.2% 1.2%  
348 0% 1.1%  
349 0.1% 1.1%  
350 0.2% 0.9%  
351 0.1% 0.7%  
352 0% 0.7%  
353 0% 0.7%  
354 0% 0.6%  
355 0% 0.6%  
356 0.3% 0.6%  
357 0% 0.4%  
358 0% 0.4%  
359 0% 0.3%  
360 0.2% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0.1% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.7%  
282 0% 99.7%  
283 0.1% 99.7%  
284 0% 99.6%  
285 0% 99.6%  
286 0% 99.6%  
287 0.1% 99.6%  
288 0% 99.5%  
289 0% 99.5%  
290 0% 99.5%  
291 0.4% 99.5%  
292 0% 99.1%  
293 0% 99.1%  
294 0.1% 99.1%  
295 0.1% 99.0%  
296 0% 98.9%  
297 0.1% 98.9%  
298 0% 98.8%  
299 0% 98.8%  
300 0% 98.8%  
301 0.1% 98.8%  
302 0.1% 98.7%  
303 1.3% 98.6%  
304 0.3% 97%  
305 1.3% 97%  
306 0% 96%  
307 0.3% 96%  
308 2% 95%  
309 0.4% 93%  
310 0.3% 93%  
311 2% 92%  
312 0.2% 91%  
313 1.1% 91%  
314 4% 90%  
315 1.0% 86%  
316 2% 85%  
317 55% 83% Last Result, Median
318 4% 27%  
319 0.2% 23%  
320 2% 23%  
321 1.2% 21%  
322 0.2% 20%  
323 0.4% 19%  
324 1.2% 19%  
325 0.1% 18%  
326 5% 18% Majority
327 2% 13%  
328 1.2% 11%  
329 0.1% 10%  
330 0.1% 10%  
331 5% 9%  
332 0.1% 5%  
333 0% 5%  
334 0.1% 5%  
335 0.6% 5%  
336 0.2% 4%  
337 0% 4%  
338 0% 4%  
339 2% 4%  
340 0.2% 1.4%  
341 0% 1.2%  
342 0.3% 1.2%  
343 0.1% 0.9%  
344 0% 0.8%  
345 0% 0.8%  
346 0.2% 0.8%  
347 0% 0.6%  
348 0% 0.6%  
349 0.2% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0.1% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.7%  
282 0% 99.7%  
283 0.1% 99.7%  
284 0% 99.6%  
285 0% 99.6%  
286 0% 99.6%  
287 0.1% 99.6%  
288 0% 99.5%  
289 0% 99.5%  
290 0% 99.5%  
291 0.4% 99.5%  
292 0% 99.1%  
293 0% 99.1%  
294 0.1% 99.1%  
295 0.1% 99.0%  
296 0% 98.9%  
297 0.1% 98.9%  
298 0% 98.8%  
299 0% 98.8%  
300 0% 98.8%  
301 0.1% 98.8%  
302 0.1% 98.7%  
303 1.3% 98.6%  
304 0.3% 97%  
305 1.3% 97%  
306 0% 96%  
307 0.3% 96%  
308 2% 95%  
309 0.4% 93%  
310 0.3% 93%  
311 2% 92%  
312 0.2% 91%  
313 1.1% 91%  
314 4% 90%  
315 1.0% 86%  
316 2% 85%  
317 55% 83% Last Result, Median
318 4% 27%  
319 0.2% 23%  
320 2% 23%  
321 1.2% 21%  
322 0.2% 20%  
323 0.4% 19%  
324 1.2% 19%  
325 0.1% 18%  
326 5% 18% Majority
327 2% 13%  
328 1.2% 11%  
329 0.1% 10%  
330 0.1% 10%  
331 5% 9%  
332 0.1% 5%  
333 0% 5%  
334 0.1% 5%  
335 0.6% 5%  
336 0.2% 4%  
337 0% 4%  
338 0% 4%  
339 2% 4%  
340 0.2% 1.4%  
341 0% 1.2%  
342 0.3% 1.2%  
343 0.1% 0.9%  
344 0% 0.8%  
345 0% 0.8%  
346 0.2% 0.8%  
347 0% 0.6%  
348 0% 0.6%  
349 0.2% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0.1% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
255 0.1% 100%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0% 99.7%  
261 0% 99.7%  
262 0% 99.7%  
263 0% 99.7%  
264 0% 99.7%  
265 0% 99.7%  
266 0.1% 99.6%  
267 0% 99.6%  
268 0.3% 99.5%  
269 0.2% 99.3%  
270 0% 99.1%  
271 0.1% 99.1%  
272 0% 99.0%  
273 0% 99.0%  
274 0.4% 99.0%  
275 0.6% 98.5%  
276 0% 98%  
277 0% 98%  
278 0% 98%  
279 0.3% 98%  
280 7% 98%  
281 0% 91%  
282 5% 91%  
283 1.1% 86%  
284 0.1% 85%  
285 0.6% 85%  
286 0% 84%  
287 0.3% 84%  
288 0.1% 84%  
289 0.2% 84%  
290 0.1% 83%  
291 4% 83%  
292 9% 80%  
293 0.3% 71%  
294 3% 70%  
295 0.2% 68%  
296 2% 67%  
297 1.3% 65%  
298 4% 64%  
299 47% 60% Median
300 0.3% 13%  
301 0.2% 12%  
302 3% 12%  
303 0.3% 9%  
304 0.3% 9%  
305 0% 9%  
306 0.2% 9%  
307 0.1% 9%  
308 0.8% 8%  
309 0.1% 8%  
310 0.9% 8%  
311 2% 7%  
312 0.1% 5%  
313 2% 5% Last Result
314 0% 3%  
315 0% 3%  
316 2% 3%  
317 0% 1.2%  
318 0.1% 1.2%  
319 0.1% 1.1%  
320 0.1% 1.0%  
321 0% 1.0%  
322 0% 1.0%  
323 0% 0.9%  
324 0.3% 0.9%  
325 0% 0.6%  
326 0.1% 0.6% Majority
327 0% 0.5%  
328 0% 0.5%  
329 0% 0.4%  
330 0% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.4%  
332 0% 0.4%  
333 0% 0.4%  
334 0% 0.4%  
335 0% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0.1% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0.1% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.7%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0% 99.7%  
254 0% 99.7%  
255 0% 99.7%  
256 0% 99.7%  
257 0.1% 99.7%  
258 0% 99.6%  
259 0% 99.5%  
260 0% 99.5%  
261 0.2% 99.5%  
262 0% 99.3%  
263 0% 99.3%  
264 0.2% 99.3%  
265 0.3% 99.1%  
266 0% 98.8%  
267 0.2% 98.8%  
268 0% 98.6%  
269 0% 98.6%  
270 0.3% 98.6%  
271 0.6% 98%  
272 6% 98%  
273 7% 92%  
274 0.2% 85%  
275 0.1% 85%  
276 0.7% 85%  
277 0.1% 84%  
278 0.1% 84%  
279 0.1% 84%  
280 0% 84%  
281 0.2% 84%  
282 0% 83%  
283 0.1% 83%  
284 6% 83%  
285 0.5% 78%  
286 0.4% 77%  
287 10% 77%  
288 0.3% 67%  
289 2% 67%  
290 0.6% 64%  
291 3% 64%  
292 50% 61% Median
293 0.4% 11%  
294 0.6% 10%  
295 0.1% 9%  
296 0% 9%  
297 0.2% 9%  
298 0.1% 9%  
299 0.5% 9%  
300 0% 8%  
301 0% 8%  
302 0.3% 8%  
303 0% 8%  
304 2% 8%  
305 0.2% 6%  
306 0.8% 6%  
307 0% 5%  
308 0.1% 5%  
309 2% 5% Last Result
310 0% 2%  
311 0% 2%  
312 1.4% 2%  
313 0.1% 1.1%  
314 0% 1.0%  
315 0.1% 1.0%  
316 0.3% 0.9%  
317 0.1% 0.6%  
318 0% 0.5%  
319 0% 0.5%  
320 0% 0.5%  
321 0% 0.4%  
322 0% 0.4%  
323 0% 0.4%  
324 0% 0.4%  
325 0% 0.4%  
326 0% 0.4% Majority
327 0% 0.4%  
328 0% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.4%  
330 0.1% 0.3%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0.1% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
201 0.1% 100%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0.1% 99.8%  
206 0% 99.7%  
207 0% 99.7%  
208 0% 99.7%  
209 0% 99.7%  
210 0% 99.7%  
211 0% 99.7%  
212 0.1% 99.6%  
213 0% 99.6%  
214 0.3% 99.5%  
215 0% 99.3%  
216 0% 99.2%  
217 0.1% 99.2%  
218 0% 99.2%  
219 0% 99.1%  
220 0.6% 99.1%  
221 0.6% 98.5%  
222 0% 98%  
223 0% 98%  
224 0% 98%  
225 0.3% 98%  
226 7% 98%  
227 0% 91%  
228 5% 91%  
229 1.1% 86%  
230 0% 85%  
231 0.6% 85%  
232 0% 84%  
233 0.3% 84%  
234 0.1% 84%  
235 0.2% 84%  
236 0.1% 83%  
237 4% 83%  
238 9% 80%  
239 0.3% 71%  
240 3% 70%  
241 0.1% 68%  
242 2% 68%  
243 2% 65%  
244 2% 64%  
245 49% 62% Median
246 0.3% 13%  
247 0.3% 13%  
248 3% 12%  
249 0.3% 9%  
250 0.4% 9%  
251 0.1% 9%  
252 0.1% 9%  
253 0.1% 9%  
254 0.8% 8%  
255 0.1% 8%  
256 0.9% 8%  
257 2% 7%  
258 0.1% 5%  
259 2% 5%  
260 0% 3%  
261 0% 3%  
262 1.4% 3%  
263 0.3% 1.5%  
264 0.1% 1.2%  
265 0.1% 1.2%  
266 0.1% 1.0%  
267 0% 1.0%  
268 0% 1.0%  
269 0% 0.9%  
270 0.3% 0.9%  
271 0% 0.6%  
272 0.1% 0.6%  
273 0% 0.5%  
274 0% 0.5%  
275 0% 0.4%  
276 0% 0.4%  
277 0% 0.4%  
278 0% 0.4% Last Result
279 0% 0.4%  
280 0% 0.4%  
281 0% 0.4%  
282 0.1% 0.4%  
283 0% 0.3%  
284 0% 0.3%  
285 0% 0.3%  
286 0.1% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0.1% 0.1%  
291 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0.1% 100%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.8%  
197 0% 99.8%  
198 0% 99.7%  
199 0% 99.7%  
200 0% 99.7%  
201 0% 99.7%  
202 0% 99.7%  
203 0.1% 99.7%  
204 0% 99.6%  
205 0% 99.5%  
206 0% 99.5%  
207 0.2% 99.5%  
208 0% 99.3%  
209 0% 99.3%  
210 0.2% 99.3%  
211 0.2% 99.1%  
212 0% 99.0%  
213 0.2% 98.9%  
214 0% 98.8%  
215 0% 98.7%  
216 0.5% 98.7%  
217 0.6% 98%  
218 6% 98%  
219 7% 92%  
220 0.2% 85%  
221 0.1% 85%  
222 0.7% 85%  
223 0.1% 84%  
224 0.1% 84%  
225 0.1% 84%  
226 0% 84%  
227 0.2% 84%  
228 0% 83%  
229 0.1% 83%  
230 6% 83%  
231 0.4% 78%  
232 0.4% 77%  
233 10% 77%  
234 0% 67%  
235 2% 67%  
236 0.8% 64%  
237 1.4% 64%  
238 52% 62% Median
239 0.5% 11%  
240 0% 10%  
241 0.7% 10%  
242 0% 9%  
243 0.2% 9%  
244 0.1% 9%  
245 0.5% 9%  
246 0% 8%  
247 0% 8%  
248 0.3% 8%  
249 0% 8%  
250 2% 8%  
251 0.2% 6%  
252 0.8% 6%  
253 0% 5%  
254 0.1% 5%  
255 2% 5%  
256 0.3% 3%  
257 0% 2%  
258 1.4% 2%  
259 0.1% 1.1%  
260 0% 1.0%  
261 0.1% 1.0%  
262 0.4% 0.9%  
263 0.1% 0.6%  
264 0% 0.5%  
265 0% 0.5%  
266 0% 0.5%  
267 0% 0.4%  
268 0% 0.4%  
269 0% 0.4%  
270 0% 0.4%  
271 0% 0.4%  
272 0% 0.4%  
273 0% 0.4%  
274 0% 0.4% Last Result
275 0.1% 0.4%  
276 0.1% 0.3%  
277 0% 0.2%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0.1% 0.1%  
283 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0.1% 100%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.8%  
197 0% 99.8%  
198 0% 99.7%  
199 0% 99.7%  
200 0% 99.7%  
201 0% 99.7%  
202 0% 99.7%  
203 0.1% 99.7%  
204 0% 99.6%  
205 0% 99.5%  
206 0% 99.5%  
207 0.2% 99.5%  
208 0% 99.3%  
209 0% 99.3%  
210 0.2% 99.3%  
211 0.2% 99.1%  
212 0% 99.0%  
213 0.2% 98.9%  
214 0% 98.8%  
215 0% 98.7%  
216 0.5% 98.7%  
217 0.6% 98%  
218 6% 98%  
219 7% 92%  
220 0.2% 85%  
221 0.1% 85%  
222 0.7% 85%  
223 0.1% 84%  
224 0.1% 84%  
225 0.1% 84%  
226 0% 84%  
227 0.2% 84%  
228 0% 83%  
229 0.1% 83%  
230 6% 83%  
231 0.4% 78%  
232 0.4% 77%  
233 10% 77%  
234 0% 67%  
235 2% 67%  
236 0.8% 64%  
237 1.4% 64%  
238 52% 62% Median
239 0.5% 11%  
240 0% 10%  
241 0.7% 10%  
242 0% 9%  
243 0.2% 9%  
244 0.1% 9%  
245 0.5% 9%  
246 0% 8%  
247 0% 8%  
248 0.3% 8%  
249 0% 8%  
250 2% 8%  
251 0.2% 6%  
252 0.8% 6%  
253 0% 5%  
254 0.1% 5%  
255 2% 5%  
256 0.3% 3%  
257 0% 2%  
258 1.4% 2%  
259 0.1% 1.1%  
260 0% 1.0%  
261 0.1% 1.0%  
262 0.4% 0.9%  
263 0.1% 0.6%  
264 0% 0.5%  
265 0% 0.5%  
266 0% 0.5%  
267 0% 0.4%  
268 0% 0.4%  
269 0% 0.4%  
270 0% 0.4%  
271 0% 0.4%  
272 0% 0.4%  
273 0% 0.4%  
274 0% 0.4% Last Result
275 0.1% 0.4%  
276 0.1% 0.3%  
277 0% 0.2%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0.1% 0.1%  
283 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0.1% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.8%  
194 0% 99.8%  
195 0% 99.8%  
196 0.1% 99.8%  
197 0% 99.7%  
198 0% 99.7%  
199 0.1% 99.7%  
200 0.1% 99.6%  
201 0.2% 99.5%  
202 0.1% 99.3%  
203 0% 99.2%  
204 0% 99.1%  
205 0.1% 99.1%  
206 0.1% 99.1%  
207 0.3% 98.9%  
208 0.1% 98.6%  
209 0.6% 98.6%  
210 0% 98%  
211 0.2% 98%  
212 0% 98%  
213 0.1% 98%  
214 5% 98%  
215 0.1% 92%  
216 0% 92%  
217 2% 92%  
218 5% 90%  
219 0.1% 85%  
220 4% 85%  
221 8% 81%  
222 1.0% 72%  
223 2% 72%  
224 0.2% 70%  
225 1.0% 70%  
226 0.1% 69%  
227 0.4% 68%  
228 54% 68% Median
229 0.1% 14%  
230 1.3% 14%  
231 0.1% 12%  
232 0.3% 12%  
233 0.9% 12%  
234 0.2% 11%  
235 3% 11%  
236 0.3% 8%  
237 0.3% 7%  
238 0.1% 7%  
239 0.2% 7%  
240 0.1% 7%  
241 2% 7%  
242 0% 4%  
243 0.2% 4%  
244 0% 4%  
245 0.1% 4%  
246 0.1% 4%  
247 0% 4%  
248 1.0% 4%  
249 0.1% 3%  
250 2% 3%  
251 0% 0.9%  
252 0% 0.9%  
253 0% 0.9%  
254 0.1% 0.9%  
255 0% 0.8%  
256 0.3% 0.8%  
257 0% 0.5%  
258 0% 0.5%  
259 0% 0.4%  
260 0% 0.4%  
261 0% 0.4%  
262 0% 0.4%  
263 0% 0.4%  
264 0% 0.3%  
265 0.1% 0.3%  
266 0.1% 0.2%  
267 0% 0.2%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0.1% 0.1%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
178 0% 100%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.8%  
182 0% 99.8%  
183 0% 99.8%  
184 0% 99.8%  
185 0% 99.8%  
186 0.1% 99.8%  
187 0% 99.7%  
188 0% 99.7%  
189 0% 99.7%  
190 0% 99.7%  
191 0.1% 99.7%  
192 0% 99.7%  
193 0.1% 99.6%  
194 0.1% 99.5%  
195 0.2% 99.4%  
196 0.1% 99.2%  
197 0.2% 99.1%  
198 0% 98.9%  
199 0% 98.9%  
200 0.1% 98.9%  
201 0% 98.9%  
202 0.3% 98.9%  
203 0.3% 98.5%  
204 5% 98%  
205 1.0% 93%  
206 0.1% 92%  
207 0.2% 92%  
208 0.1% 92%  
209 0.1% 92%  
210 2% 92%  
211 5% 89%  
212 1.5% 85%  
213 4% 83%  
214 0.2% 79%  
215 1.0% 79%  
216 9% 78%  
217 0.2% 69%  
218 3% 69%  
219 0.6% 66%  
220 0.1% 66%  
221 52% 65% Median
222 0.4% 14%  
223 1.3% 14%  
224 0.1% 12%  
225 2% 12%  
226 0.2% 10%  
227 0.1% 10%  
228 1.3% 10%  
229 1.0% 8%  
230 0.3% 7%  
231 0.1% 7%  
232 0.1% 7%  
233 0.2% 7%  
234 0.1% 7%  
235 0.1% 6%  
236 0% 6%  
237 2% 6%  
238 0.1% 4%  
239 0.1% 4%  
240 0.4% 4%  
241 0% 4%  
242 0% 4%  
243 0% 4%  
244 0.7% 4%  
245 0% 3%  
246 2% 3%  
247 0% 0.8%  
248 0% 0.7%  
249 0.3% 0.7%  
250 0% 0.5%  
251 0% 0.5%  
252 0.1% 0.4%  
253 0% 0.4%  
254 0% 0.4%  
255 0.1% 0.4%  
256 0% 0.3%  
257 0% 0.2%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0.1% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.2%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0.1% 0.1%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.8%  
140 0% 99.8%  
141 0% 99.8%  
142 0.1% 99.8%  
143 0% 99.7%  
144 0% 99.7%  
145 0.1% 99.7%  
146 0.1% 99.6%  
147 0.1% 99.5%  
148 0.1% 99.4%  
149 0% 99.3%  
150 0% 99.3%  
151 0.1% 99.3%  
152 0.3% 99.2%  
153 0.3% 98.9%  
154 0.1% 98.6%  
155 0.6% 98.6%  
156 0% 98%  
157 0.2% 98%  
158 0% 98%  
159 0.1% 98%  
160 5% 98%  
161 0% 93%  
162 0.1% 93%  
163 3% 92%  
164 5% 90%  
165 0.1% 85%  
166 4% 85%  
167 8% 81%  
168 1.0% 73%  
169 2% 72%  
170 0.4% 70%  
171 1.0% 70%  
172 0% 69%  
173 0.4% 69%  
174 53% 68% Median
175 2% 15%  
176 1.4% 14%  
177 0.1% 12%  
178 0.3% 12%  
179 0.3% 12%  
180 0.7% 12%  
181 3% 11%  
182 0.4% 8%  
183 0.2% 7%  
184 0.2% 7%  
185 0.2% 7%  
186 0.1% 7%  
187 2% 7%  
188 0% 4%  
189 0.2% 4%  
190 0% 4%  
191 0% 4%  
192 0.1% 4%  
193 0% 4%  
194 1.0% 4%  
195 0.1% 3%  
196 2% 3%  
197 0% 0.9%  
198 0% 0.9%  
199 0% 0.9%  
200 0.1% 0.9%  
201 0% 0.8%  
202 0% 0.8%  
203 0.3% 0.7%  
204 0% 0.5%  
205 0% 0.5%  
206 0% 0.4%  
207 0% 0.4%  
208 0% 0.4%  
209 0% 0.4%  
210 0% 0.3%  
211 0.1% 0.3%  
212 0.1% 0.2%  
213 0% 0.2%  
214 0% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0.1% 0.1%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.8%  
128 0% 99.8%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.8%  
131 0% 99.8%  
132 0.1% 99.8%  
133 0% 99.7%  
134 0% 99.7%  
135 0% 99.7%  
136 0% 99.7%  
137 0% 99.7%  
138 0% 99.7%  
139 0.1% 99.6%  
140 0.1% 99.5%  
141 0.2% 99.4%  
142 0.1% 99.2%  
143 0% 99.1%  
144 0% 99.1%  
145 0% 99.1%  
146 0.1% 99.1%  
147 0% 99.0%  
148 0.5% 99.0%  
149 0.3% 98.5%  
150 5% 98%  
151 0.9% 93%  
152 0.1% 92%  
153 0.2% 92%  
154 0% 92%  
155 0.1% 92%  
156 2% 92%  
157 5% 90%  
158 1.5% 85%  
159 4% 83%  
160 0.2% 79%  
161 0.9% 79%  
162 8% 78%  
163 0.5% 70%  
164 3% 69%  
165 0.6% 66%  
166 0.2% 66%  
167 50% 65% Median
168 2% 16%  
169 1.4% 14%  
170 0.1% 12%  
171 2% 12%  
172 0.3% 10%  
173 0.1% 10%  
174 1.3% 10%  
175 0.4% 8%  
176 0.8% 8%  
177 0.1% 7%  
178 0.1% 7%  
179 0.2% 7%  
180 0.1% 7%  
181 0.1% 6%  
182 0% 6%  
183 2% 6%  
184 0.1% 4%  
185 0.1% 4%  
186 0.4% 4%  
187 0% 4%  
188 0% 4%  
189 0% 4%  
190 0.7% 4%  
191 0% 3%  
192 2% 3%  
193 0% 0.8%  
194 0% 0.8%  
195 0% 0.7%  
196 0.3% 0.7%  
197 0% 0.5%  
198 0% 0.5%  
199 0% 0.4%  
200 0% 0.4%  
201 0.1% 0.4%  
202 0% 0.3%  
203 0% 0.3%  
204 0% 0.2%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0% 0.2%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0.1% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.8%  
128 0% 99.8%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.8%  
131 0% 99.8%  
132 0.1% 99.8%  
133 0% 99.7%  
134 0% 99.7%  
135 0% 99.7%  
136 0% 99.7%  
137 0% 99.7%  
138 0% 99.7%  
139 0.1% 99.6%  
140 0.1% 99.5%  
141 0.2% 99.4%  
142 0.1% 99.2%  
143 0% 99.1%  
144 0% 99.1%  
145 0% 99.1%  
146 0.1% 99.1%  
147 0% 99.0%  
148 0.5% 99.0%  
149 0.3% 98.5%  
150 5% 98%  
151 0.9% 93%  
152 0.1% 92%  
153 0.2% 92%  
154 0% 92%  
155 0.1% 92%  
156 2% 92%  
157 5% 90%  
158 1.5% 85%  
159 4% 83%  
160 0.2% 79%  
161 0.9% 79%  
162 8% 78%  
163 0.5% 70%  
164 3% 69%  
165 0.6% 66%  
166 0.2% 66%  
167 50% 65% Median
168 2% 16%  
169 1.4% 14%  
170 0.1% 12%  
171 2% 12%  
172 0.3% 10%  
173 0.1% 10%  
174 1.3% 10%  
175 0.4% 8%  
176 0.8% 8%  
177 0.1% 7%  
178 0.1% 7%  
179 0.2% 7%  
180 0.1% 7%  
181 0.1% 6%  
182 0% 6%  
183 2% 6%  
184 0.1% 4%  
185 0.1% 4%  
186 0.4% 4%  
187 0% 4%  
188 0% 4%  
189 0% 4%  
190 0.7% 4%  
191 0% 3%  
192 2% 3%  
193 0% 0.8%  
194 0% 0.8%  
195 0% 0.7%  
196 0.3% 0.7%  
197 0% 0.5%  
198 0% 0.5%  
199 0% 0.4%  
200 0% 0.4%  
201 0.1% 0.4%  
202 0% 0.3%  
203 0% 0.3%  
204 0% 0.2%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0% 0.2%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0.1% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations