Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 15–19 August 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | 42.4% | 41.7% | 39.9–43.7% | 39.4–44.2% | 38.9–44.7% | 38.0–45.6% |
| Labour Party | 40.0% | 27.9% | 26.2–29.6% | 25.8–30.1% | 25.3–30.6% | 24.6–31.4% |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.4% | 14.9% | 13.6–16.4% | 13.3–16.8% | 13.0–17.1% | 12.4–17.8% |
| Scottish National Party | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.0–6.1% | 3.8–6.4% | 3.5–6.8% |
| Brexit Party | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.0–6.1% | 3.8–6.4% | 3.5–6.8% |
| Green Party | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.6% |
| Change UK | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
| UK Independence Party | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | 317 | 352 | 335–366 | 335–378 | 335–382 | 324–393 |
| Labour Party | 262 | 183 | 172–198 | 161–198 | 155–204 | 150–213 |
| Liberal Democrats | 12 | 37 | 35–42 | 33–42 | 32–43 | 30–48 |
| Scottish National Party | 35 | 51 | 51–54 | 50–54 | 50–55 | 47–55 |
| Brexit Party | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Green Party | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Change UK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Plaid Cymru | 4 | 3 | 3–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| UK Independence Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 310 | 0% | 100% | |
| 311 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 312 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 313 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 314 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 315 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 316 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 317 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 318 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 319 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 320 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 321 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 322 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 323 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 324 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 325 | 0% | 98% | |
| 326 | 0.1% | 98% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 98% | |
| 328 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 329 | 0% | 98% | |
| 330 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 331 | 0% | 98% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 333 | 0% | 98% | |
| 334 | 0% | 98% | |
| 335 | 12% | 98% | |
| 336 | 0% | 85% | |
| 337 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 338 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 339 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 340 | 0% | 85% | |
| 341 | 0.7% | 85% | |
| 342 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 343 | 2% | 84% | |
| 344 | 0.2% | 82% | |
| 345 | 0.1% | 82% | |
| 346 | 0.1% | 82% | |
| 347 | 10% | 82% | |
| 348 | 0% | 72% | |
| 349 | 21% | 72% | |
| 350 | 0.1% | 51% | |
| 351 | 0% | 51% | |
| 352 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 353 | 1.0% | 49% | |
| 354 | 0.7% | 48% | |
| 355 | 2% | 47% | |
| 356 | 0% | 46% | |
| 357 | 1.2% | 46% | |
| 358 | 29% | 44% | |
| 359 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 360 | 2% | 15% | |
| 361 | 2% | 13% | |
| 362 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 363 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 364 | 0% | 10% | |
| 365 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 366 | 4% | 10% | |
| 367 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 368 | 0% | 7% | |
| 369 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 370 | 0% | 6% | |
| 371 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 372 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 373 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 374 | 0% | 5% | |
| 375 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 376 | 0% | 5% | |
| 377 | 0% | 5% | |
| 378 | 2% | 5% | |
| 379 | 0% | 3% | |
| 380 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 381 | 0% | 3% | |
| 382 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 383 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 384 | 0% | 2% | |
| 385 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 386 | 0% | 2% | |
| 387 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 388 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 389 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 390 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 391 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 392 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 393 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 395 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 397 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 398 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 399 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 400 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 401 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 402 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 403 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 404 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 153 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 98% | |
| 155 | 2% | 98% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 157 | 0% | 95% | |
| 158 | 0% | 95% | |
| 159 | 0% | 95% | |
| 160 | 0% | 95% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 164 | 0% | 94% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 168 | 0% | 94% | |
| 169 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 171 | 0% | 93% | |
| 172 | 4% | 93% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 175 | 0.9% | 89% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 177 | 0.8% | 88% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 181 | 28% | 86% | |
| 182 | 1.1% | 58% | |
| 183 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 184 | 12% | 50% | |
| 185 | 3% | 38% | |
| 186 | 0.4% | 35% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 35% | |
| 188 | 0.4% | 34% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 34% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 34% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 34% | |
| 192 | 16% | 34% | |
| 193 | 2% | 18% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 195 | 0.6% | 16% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 16% | |
| 197 | 0% | 15% | |
| 198 | 12% | 15% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 201 | 0% | 3% | |
| 202 | 0% | 3% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 204 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 205 | 0% | 2% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 208 | 0% | 2% | |
| 209 | 0% | 2% | |
| 210 | 0% | 2% | |
| 211 | 0% | 2% | |
| 212 | 0% | 2% | |
| 213 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0% | |
| 232 | 0% | 0% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0% | |
| 239 | 0% | 0% | |
| 240 | 0% | 0% | |
| 241 | 0% | 0% | |
| 242 | 0% | 0% | |
| 243 | 0% | 0% | |
| 244 | 0% | 0% | |
| 245 | 0% | 0% | |
| 246 | 0% | 0% | |
| 247 | 0% | 0% | |
| 248 | 0% | 0% | |
| 249 | 0% | 0% | |
| 250 | 0% | 0% | |
| 251 | 0% | 0% | |
| 252 | 0% | 0% | |
| 253 | 0% | 0% | |
| 254 | 0% | 0% | |
| 255 | 0% | 0% | |
| 256 | 0% | 0% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0% | |
| 259 | 0% | 0% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 32 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 33 | 4% | 97% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 35 | 17% | 92% | |
| 36 | 2% | 76% | |
| 37 | 36% | 74% | Median |
| 38 | 1.0% | 37% | |
| 39 | 3% | 36% | |
| 40 | 13% | 33% | |
| 41 | 6% | 20% | |
| 42 | 11% | 14% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 49 | 0% | 98% | |
| 50 | 4% | 98% | |
| 51 | 51% | 94% | Median |
| 52 | 1.3% | 42% | |
| 53 | 3% | 41% | |
| 54 | 36% | 38% | |
| 55 | 2% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Brexit Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 94% | 99.3% | Median |
| 2 | 6% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Change UK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 93% | |
| 2 | 0% | 93% | |
| 3 | 81% | 93% | Median |
| 4 | 12% | 12% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
UK Independence Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 356 | 406 | 100% | 392–421 | 392–436 | 390–437 | 380–446 |
| Conservative Party – Scottish National Party | 352 | 403 | 100% | 389–417 | 389–432 | 389–434 | 376–443 |
| Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK | 329 | 390 | 100% | 375–403 | 375–417 | 372–421 | 361–428 |
| Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats | 329 | 390 | 100% | 375–403 | 375–417 | 372–421 | 361–428 |
| Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru | 321 | 352 | 99.8% | 338–370 | 338–382 | 338–385 | 327–396 |
| Conservative Party – Change UK | 317 | 352 | 98% | 335–366 | 335–378 | 335–382 | 324–393 |
| Conservative Party | 317 | 352 | 98% | 335–366 | 335–378 | 335–382 | 324–393 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 313 | 278 | 0% | 264–295 | 252–295 | 248–295 | 237–306 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party | 309 | 277 | 0% | 260–292 | 248–292 | 245–292 | 234–303 |
| Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 301 | 240 | 0% | 227–255 | 213–255 | 208–258 | 202–269 |
| Labour Party – Scottish National Party | 297 | 237 | 0% | 223–252 | 210–252 | 205–256 | 199–266 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru | 278 | 227 | 0% | 213–241 | 198–241 | 196–241 | 187–254 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK | 274 | 224 | 0% | 209–238 | 194–238 | 193–240 | 184–250 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats | 274 | 224 | 0% | 209–238 | 194–238 | 193–240 | 184–250 |
| Labour Party – Plaid Cymru | 266 | 187 | 0% | 176–201 | 163–201 | 157–206 | 151–216 |
| Labour Party – Change UK | 262 | 183 | 0% | 172–198 | 161–198 | 155–204 | 150–213 |
| Labour Party | 262 | 183 | 0% | 172–198 | 161–198 | 155–204 | 150–213 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 356 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 357 | 0% | 100% | |
| 358 | 0% | 100% | |
| 359 | 0% | 100% | |
| 360 | 0% | 100% | |
| 361 | 0% | 100% | |
| 362 | 0% | 100% | |
| 363 | 0% | 100% | |
| 364 | 0% | 100% | |
| 365 | 0% | 100% | |
| 366 | 0% | 100% | |
| 367 | 0% | 100% | |
| 368 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 369 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 370 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 371 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 372 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 373 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 374 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 375 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 376 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 377 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 378 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 379 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 380 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 381 | 0% | 98% | |
| 382 | 0% | 98% | |
| 383 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 384 | 0% | 98% | |
| 385 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 386 | 0% | 98% | |
| 387 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 388 | 0% | 98% | |
| 389 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 390 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 391 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 392 | 12% | 97% | |
| 393 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 394 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 395 | 0% | 85% | |
| 396 | 0% | 85% | |
| 397 | 0.5% | 85% | |
| 398 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 399 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 400 | 2% | 84% | |
| 401 | 0.2% | 82% | |
| 402 | 0.1% | 82% | |
| 403 | 17% | 81% | |
| 404 | 9% | 65% | |
| 405 | 1.2% | 56% | |
| 406 | 6% | 55% | Median |
| 407 | 0.4% | 49% | |
| 408 | 2% | 49% | |
| 409 | 0.4% | 47% | |
| 410 | 0.8% | 47% | |
| 411 | 1.4% | 46% | |
| 412 | 31% | 44% | |
| 413 | 0.6% | 14% | |
| 414 | 0% | 13% | |
| 415 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 416 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 417 | 0.3% | 12% | |
| 418 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 419 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 420 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 421 | 4% | 10% | |
| 422 | 0% | 6% | |
| 423 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 424 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 425 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 426 | 0% | 6% | |
| 427 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 428 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 429 | 0% | 6% | |
| 430 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 431 | 0% | 5% | |
| 432 | 0% | 5% | |
| 433 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 434 | 0% | 5% | |
| 435 | 0% | 5% | |
| 436 | 2% | 5% | |
| 437 | 2% | 3% | |
| 438 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 439 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 440 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 441 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 442 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 443 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 444 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 445 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 446 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 447 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 448 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 449 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 450 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 451 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 452 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 453 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 454 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 455 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 456 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 352 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 353 | 0% | 100% | |
| 354 | 0% | 100% | |
| 355 | 0% | 100% | |
| 356 | 0% | 100% | |
| 357 | 0% | 100% | |
| 358 | 0% | 100% | |
| 359 | 0% | 100% | |
| 360 | 0% | 100% | |
| 361 | 0% | 100% | |
| 362 | 0% | 100% | |
| 363 | 0% | 100% | |
| 364 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 365 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 366 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 367 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 368 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 369 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 370 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 371 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 372 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 373 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 374 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 375 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 376 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 377 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 378 | 0% | 98% | |
| 379 | 0% | 98% | |
| 380 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 381 | 0% | 98% | |
| 382 | 0% | 98% | |
| 383 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 384 | 0% | 98% | |
| 385 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 386 | 0% | 98% | |
| 387 | 0% | 98% | |
| 388 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 389 | 12% | 98% | |
| 390 | 0.4% | 85% | |
| 391 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 392 | 0% | 85% | |
| 393 | 0% | 85% | |
| 394 | 0.4% | 85% | |
| 395 | 0.5% | 84% | |
| 396 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 397 | 2% | 83% | |
| 398 | 0.1% | 82% | |
| 399 | 0.2% | 82% | |
| 400 | 15% | 81% | |
| 401 | 10% | 67% | |
| 402 | 0% | 57% | |
| 403 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 404 | 0.4% | 49% | |
| 405 | 2% | 49% | |
| 406 | 0.6% | 47% | |
| 407 | 0.1% | 46% | |
| 408 | 2% | 46% | |
| 409 | 29% | 45% | |
| 410 | 0.8% | 15% | |
| 411 | 1.2% | 14% | |
| 412 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 413 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 414 | 1.2% | 13% | |
| 415 | 1.1% | 12% | |
| 416 | 0% | 11% | |
| 417 | 4% | 11% | |
| 418 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 419 | 0% | 7% | |
| 420 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 421 | 0% | 6% | |
| 422 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 423 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 424 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 425 | 0% | 6% | |
| 426 | 0% | 6% | |
| 427 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 428 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 429 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 430 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 431 | 0% | 5% | |
| 432 | 2% | 5% | |
| 433 | 0% | 3% | |
| 434 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 435 | 0% | 2% | |
| 436 | 0% | 2% | |
| 437 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 438 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 439 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 440 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 441 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 442 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 443 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 444 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 445 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 446 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 447 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 448 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 449 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 450 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 451 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 452 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 453 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 329 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 330 | 0% | 100% | |
| 331 | 0% | 100% | |
| 332 | 0% | 100% | |
| 333 | 0% | 100% | |
| 334 | 0% | 100% | |
| 335 | 0% | 100% | |
| 336 | 0% | 100% | |
| 337 | 0% | 100% | |
| 338 | 0% | 100% | |
| 339 | 0% | 100% | |
| 340 | 0% | 100% | |
| 341 | 0% | 100% | |
| 342 | 0% | 100% | |
| 343 | 0% | 100% | |
| 344 | 0% | 100% | |
| 345 | 0% | 100% | |
| 346 | 0% | 100% | |
| 347 | 0% | 100% | |
| 348 | 0% | 100% | |
| 349 | 0% | 100% | |
| 350 | 0% | 100% | |
| 351 | 0% | 100% | |
| 352 | 0% | 100% | |
| 353 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 354 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 355 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 356 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 357 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 358 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 359 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 360 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 361 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 362 | 0% | 98.5% | |
| 363 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 364 | 0% | 98% | |
| 365 | 0% | 98% | |
| 366 | 0% | 98% | |
| 367 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 368 | 0% | 98% | |
| 369 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 370 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 371 | 0% | 98% | |
| 372 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 373 | 0% | 97% | |
| 374 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 375 | 12% | 97% | |
| 376 | 0% | 85% | |
| 377 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 378 | 0% | 85% | |
| 379 | 0.4% | 85% | |
| 380 | 2% | 84% | |
| 381 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 382 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 383 | 0.2% | 83% | |
| 384 | 15% | 82% | |
| 385 | 0.6% | 68% | |
| 386 | 0% | 67% | |
| 387 | 1.1% | 67% | |
| 388 | 0.4% | 66% | |
| 389 | 10% | 65% | Median |
| 390 | 7% | 55% | |
| 391 | 4% | 49% | |
| 392 | 2% | 45% | |
| 393 | 0.6% | 43% | |
| 394 | 1.1% | 43% | |
| 395 | 27% | 41% | |
| 396 | 0.7% | 14% | |
| 397 | 0.9% | 14% | |
| 398 | 0.6% | 13% | |
| 399 | 0.4% | 12% | |
| 400 | 0.3% | 12% | |
| 401 | 0% | 11% | |
| 402 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 403 | 5% | 11% | |
| 404 | 0% | 7% | |
| 405 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 406 | 0% | 6% | |
| 407 | 0% | 6% | |
| 408 | 0% | 6% | |
| 409 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 410 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 411 | 0% | 6% | |
| 412 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 413 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 414 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 415 | 0% | 5% | |
| 416 | 0% | 5% | |
| 417 | 2% | 5% | |
| 418 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 419 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 420 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 421 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 422 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 423 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 424 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 425 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 426 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 427 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 428 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 429 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 430 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 431 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 432 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 433 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 434 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 435 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 436 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 437 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 438 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 329 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 330 | 0% | 100% | |
| 331 | 0% | 100% | |
| 332 | 0% | 100% | |
| 333 | 0% | 100% | |
| 334 | 0% | 100% | |
| 335 | 0% | 100% | |
| 336 | 0% | 100% | |
| 337 | 0% | 100% | |
| 338 | 0% | 100% | |
| 339 | 0% | 100% | |
| 340 | 0% | 100% | |
| 341 | 0% | 100% | |
| 342 | 0% | 100% | |
| 343 | 0% | 100% | |
| 344 | 0% | 100% | |
| 345 | 0% | 100% | |
| 346 | 0% | 100% | |
| 347 | 0% | 100% | |
| 348 | 0% | 100% | |
| 349 | 0% | 100% | |
| 350 | 0% | 100% | |
| 351 | 0% | 100% | |
| 352 | 0% | 100% | |
| 353 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 354 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 355 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 356 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 357 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 358 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 359 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 360 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 361 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 362 | 0% | 98.5% | |
| 363 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 364 | 0% | 98% | |
| 365 | 0% | 98% | |
| 366 | 0% | 98% | |
| 367 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 368 | 0% | 98% | |
| 369 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 370 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 371 | 0% | 98% | |
| 372 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 373 | 0% | 97% | |
| 374 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 375 | 12% | 97% | |
| 376 | 0% | 85% | |
| 377 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 378 | 0% | 85% | |
| 379 | 0.4% | 85% | |
| 380 | 2% | 84% | |
| 381 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 382 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 383 | 0.2% | 83% | |
| 384 | 15% | 82% | |
| 385 | 0.6% | 68% | |
| 386 | 0% | 67% | |
| 387 | 1.1% | 67% | |
| 388 | 0.4% | 66% | |
| 389 | 10% | 65% | Median |
| 390 | 7% | 55% | |
| 391 | 4% | 49% | |
| 392 | 2% | 45% | |
| 393 | 0.6% | 43% | |
| 394 | 1.1% | 43% | |
| 395 | 27% | 41% | |
| 396 | 0.7% | 14% | |
| 397 | 0.9% | 14% | |
| 398 | 0.6% | 13% | |
| 399 | 0.4% | 12% | |
| 400 | 0.3% | 12% | |
| 401 | 0% | 11% | |
| 402 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 403 | 5% | 11% | |
| 404 | 0% | 7% | |
| 405 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 406 | 0% | 6% | |
| 407 | 0% | 6% | |
| 408 | 0% | 6% | |
| 409 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 410 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 411 | 0% | 6% | |
| 412 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 413 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 414 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 415 | 0% | 5% | |
| 416 | 0% | 5% | |
| 417 | 2% | 5% | |
| 418 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 419 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 420 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 421 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 422 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 423 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 424 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 425 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 426 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 427 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 428 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 429 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 430 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 431 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 432 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 433 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 434 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 435 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 436 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 437 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 438 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 314 | 0% | 100% | |
| 315 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 316 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 317 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 318 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 319 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 320 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 321 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 322 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 323 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 324 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 325 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 326 | 0% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 327 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 328 | 0% | 98% | |
| 329 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 330 | 0% | 98% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 333 | 0% | 98% | |
| 334 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 335 | 0% | 98% | |
| 336 | 0% | 98% | |
| 337 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 338 | 12% | 98% | |
| 339 | 0.5% | 85% | |
| 340 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 341 | 0% | 85% | |
| 342 | 0% | 85% | |
| 343 | 0% | 85% | |
| 344 | 0.4% | 85% | |
| 345 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 346 | 2% | 84% | |
| 347 | 0.1% | 82% | |
| 348 | 0.2% | 82% | |
| 349 | 0.1% | 82% | |
| 350 | 9% | 82% | |
| 351 | 1.2% | 73% | |
| 352 | 22% | 72% | |
| 353 | 0.9% | 50% | |
| 354 | 0.1% | 49% | |
| 355 | 0.1% | 49% | Median |
| 356 | 0.9% | 49% | |
| 357 | 0.7% | 48% | |
| 358 | 2% | 47% | |
| 359 | 0.5% | 45% | |
| 360 | 0.4% | 45% | |
| 361 | 31% | 44% | |
| 362 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 363 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 364 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 365 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 366 | 0% | 10% | |
| 367 | 0% | 10% | |
| 368 | 0% | 10% | |
| 369 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 370 | 4% | 10% | |
| 371 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 372 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 373 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 374 | 0% | 6% | |
| 375 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 376 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 377 | 0% | 5% | |
| 378 | 0% | 5% | |
| 379 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 380 | 0% | 5% | |
| 381 | 0% | 5% | |
| 382 | 2% | 5% | |
| 383 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 384 | 0% | 3% | |
| 385 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 386 | 0% | 2% | |
| 387 | 0% | 2% | |
| 388 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 389 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 390 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 391 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 392 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 393 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 394 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 395 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 396 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 397 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 398 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 399 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 400 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 401 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 402 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 403 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 404 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 405 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 406 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 407 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Change UK
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 310 | 0% | 100% | |
| 311 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 312 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 313 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 314 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 315 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 316 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 317 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 318 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 319 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 320 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 321 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 322 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 323 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 324 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 325 | 0% | 98% | |
| 326 | 0.1% | 98% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 98% | |
| 328 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 329 | 0% | 98% | |
| 330 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 331 | 0% | 98% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 333 | 0% | 98% | |
| 334 | 0% | 98% | |
| 335 | 12% | 98% | |
| 336 | 0% | 85% | |
| 337 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 338 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 339 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 340 | 0% | 85% | |
| 341 | 0.7% | 85% | |
| 342 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 343 | 2% | 84% | |
| 344 | 0.2% | 82% | |
| 345 | 0.1% | 82% | |
| 346 | 0.1% | 82% | |
| 347 | 10% | 82% | |
| 348 | 0% | 72% | |
| 349 | 21% | 72% | |
| 350 | 0.1% | 51% | |
| 351 | 0% | 51% | |
| 352 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 353 | 1.0% | 49% | |
| 354 | 0.7% | 48% | |
| 355 | 2% | 47% | |
| 356 | 0% | 46% | |
| 357 | 1.2% | 46% | |
| 358 | 29% | 44% | |
| 359 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 360 | 2% | 15% | |
| 361 | 2% | 13% | |
| 362 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 363 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 364 | 0% | 10% | |
| 365 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 366 | 4% | 10% | |
| 367 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 368 | 0% | 7% | |
| 369 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 370 | 0% | 6% | |
| 371 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 372 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 373 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 374 | 0% | 5% | |
| 375 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 376 | 0% | 5% | |
| 377 | 0% | 5% | |
| 378 | 2% | 5% | |
| 379 | 0% | 3% | |
| 380 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 381 | 0% | 3% | |
| 382 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 383 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 384 | 0% | 2% | |
| 385 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 386 | 0% | 2% | |
| 387 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 388 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 389 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 390 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 391 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 392 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 393 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 395 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 397 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 398 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 399 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 400 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 401 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 402 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 403 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 404 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 310 | 0% | 100% | |
| 311 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 312 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 313 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 314 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 315 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 316 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 317 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 318 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 319 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 320 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 321 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 322 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 323 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 324 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 325 | 0% | 98% | |
| 326 | 0.1% | 98% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 98% | |
| 328 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 329 | 0% | 98% | |
| 330 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 331 | 0% | 98% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 333 | 0% | 98% | |
| 334 | 0% | 98% | |
| 335 | 12% | 98% | |
| 336 | 0% | 85% | |
| 337 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 338 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 339 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 340 | 0% | 85% | |
| 341 | 0.7% | 85% | |
| 342 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 343 | 2% | 84% | |
| 344 | 0.2% | 82% | |
| 345 | 0.1% | 82% | |
| 346 | 0.1% | 82% | |
| 347 | 10% | 82% | |
| 348 | 0% | 72% | |
| 349 | 21% | 72% | |
| 350 | 0.1% | 51% | |
| 351 | 0% | 51% | |
| 352 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 353 | 1.0% | 49% | |
| 354 | 0.7% | 48% | |
| 355 | 2% | 47% | |
| 356 | 0% | 46% | |
| 357 | 1.2% | 46% | |
| 358 | 29% | 44% | |
| 359 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 360 | 2% | 15% | |
| 361 | 2% | 13% | |
| 362 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 363 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 364 | 0% | 10% | |
| 365 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 366 | 4% | 10% | |
| 367 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 368 | 0% | 7% | |
| 369 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 370 | 0% | 6% | |
| 371 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 372 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 373 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 374 | 0% | 5% | |
| 375 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 376 | 0% | 5% | |
| 377 | 0% | 5% | |
| 378 | 2% | 5% | |
| 379 | 0% | 3% | |
| 380 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 381 | 0% | 3% | |
| 382 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 383 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 384 | 0% | 2% | |
| 385 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 386 | 0% | 2% | |
| 387 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 388 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 389 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 390 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 391 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 392 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 393 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 395 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 397 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 398 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 399 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 400 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 401 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 402 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 403 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 404 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 227 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 228 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 232 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 234 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 237 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 238 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 240 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 242 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 243 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 244 | 0% | 98% | |
| 245 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 246 | 0% | 98% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 248 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 249 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 250 | 0% | 97% | |
| 251 | 0% | 97% | |
| 252 | 2% | 97% | |
| 253 | 0% | 95% | |
| 254 | 0% | 95% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 258 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 260 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 262 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 263 | 0% | 93% | |
| 264 | 4% | 93% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 266 | 0% | 90% | |
| 267 | 0.3% | 90% | |
| 268 | 1.0% | 89% | |
| 269 | 1.2% | 88% | |
| 270 | 1.5% | 87% | |
| 271 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 272 | 29% | 85% | |
| 273 | 1.2% | 56% | |
| 274 | 2% | 54% | Median |
| 275 | 0.5% | 53% | |
| 276 | 0.6% | 52% | |
| 277 | 0.7% | 52% | |
| 278 | 2% | 51% | |
| 279 | 0% | 49% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 49% | |
| 281 | 21% | 49% | |
| 282 | 0% | 28% | |
| 283 | 10% | 28% | |
| 284 | 0% | 18% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 18% | |
| 286 | 0.7% | 18% | |
| 287 | 2% | 18% | |
| 288 | 0.7% | 16% | |
| 289 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 290 | 0% | 15% | |
| 291 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 292 | 0% | 15% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 294 | 0% | 15% | |
| 295 | 12% | 15% | |
| 296 | 0% | 2% | |
| 297 | 0% | 2% | |
| 298 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 299 | 0% | 2% | |
| 300 | 0% | 2% | |
| 301 | 0% | 2% | |
| 302 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 303 | 0% | 2% | |
| 304 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 305 | 0% | 2% | |
| 306 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 307 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 308 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 310 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 311 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 314 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 224 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 225 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 226 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 227 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 228 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 232 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 234 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 236 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 237 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 238 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 239 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 240 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 98.5% | |
| 242 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 243 | 0% | 98% | |
| 244 | 0% | 98% | |
| 245 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 246 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 248 | 2% | 97% | |
| 249 | 0% | 95% | |
| 250 | 0% | 95% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 252 | 0% | 95% | |
| 253 | 0% | 95% | |
| 254 | 0% | 95% | |
| 255 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 257 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 258 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 259 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 260 | 4% | 93% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 262 | 0% | 90% | |
| 263 | 0% | 90% | |
| 264 | 0% | 90% | |
| 265 | 0.7% | 90% | |
| 266 | 1.4% | 89% | |
| 267 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 268 | 1.3% | 87% | |
| 269 | 30% | 86% | |
| 270 | 0.6% | 56% | |
| 271 | 2% | 55% | Median |
| 272 | 0.4% | 53% | |
| 273 | 0.6% | 52% | |
| 274 | 0.7% | 52% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 51% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 51% | |
| 277 | 0.9% | 51% | |
| 278 | 22% | 50% | |
| 279 | 1.2% | 28% | |
| 280 | 9% | 27% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 18% | |
| 282 | 0.2% | 18% | |
| 283 | 0.6% | 18% | |
| 284 | 2% | 18% | |
| 285 | 0.2% | 16% | |
| 286 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 287 | 0% | 15% | |
| 288 | 0% | 15% | |
| 289 | 0% | 15% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 291 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 292 | 12% | 15% | |
| 293 | 0% | 2% | |
| 294 | 0% | 2% | |
| 295 | 0% | 2% | |
| 296 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 297 | 0% | 2% | |
| 298 | 0% | 2% | |
| 299 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 300 | 0% | 2% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 302 | 0% | 2% | |
| 303 | 2% | 2% | |
| 304 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 305 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 306 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 307 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 308 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 310 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 311 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 195 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 196 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 197 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 198 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 200 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 202 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 203 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 205 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 206 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 208 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 209 | 0% | 97% | |
| 210 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 212 | 0% | 97% | |
| 213 | 2% | 97% | |
| 214 | 0% | 95% | |
| 215 | 0% | 95% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 218 | 0% | 94% | |
| 219 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 221 | 0% | 94% | |
| 222 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 223 | 0% | 94% | |
| 224 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 227 | 4% | 93% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 229 | 0% | 89% | |
| 230 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 232 | 0.5% | 88% | |
| 233 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 234 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 235 | 28% | 86% | |
| 236 | 0.4% | 57% | |
| 237 | 2% | 57% | Median |
| 238 | 0.7% | 55% | |
| 239 | 3% | 55% | |
| 240 | 7% | 51% | |
| 241 | 10% | 45% | |
| 242 | 0.5% | 35% | |
| 243 | 1.0% | 34% | |
| 244 | 0.1% | 33% | |
| 245 | 0.6% | 33% | |
| 246 | 15% | 32% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 18% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 17% | |
| 249 | 0% | 17% | |
| 250 | 2% | 17% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 252 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 253 | 0% | 15% | |
| 254 | 0% | 15% | |
| 255 | 12% | 15% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 258 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 261 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 262 | 0% | 2% | |
| 263 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 264 | 0% | 2% | |
| 265 | 0% | 2% | |
| 266 | 0% | 2% | |
| 267 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 268 | 0% | 2% | |
| 269 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 271 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 275 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 278 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 279 | 0% | 0% | |
| 280 | 0% | 0% | |
| 281 | 0% | 0% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0% | |
| 283 | 0% | 0% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0% | |
| 285 | 0% | 0% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0% | |
| 289 | 0% | 0% | |
| 290 | 0% | 0% | |
| 291 | 0% | 0% | |
| 292 | 0% | 0% | |
| 293 | 0% | 0% | |
| 294 | 0% | 0% | |
| 295 | 0% | 0% | |
| 296 | 0% | 0% | |
| 297 | 0% | 0% | |
| 298 | 0% | 0% | |
| 299 | 0% | 0% | |
| 300 | 0% | 0% | |
| 301 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 191 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 193 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 194 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 195 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 196 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 197 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 200 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 202 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 203 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 205 | 1.3% | 98.7% | |
| 206 | 0% | 97% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 208 | 0% | 97% | |
| 209 | 2% | 97% | |
| 210 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 212 | 0% | 95% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 214 | 0% | 95% | |
| 215 | 0% | 95% | |
| 216 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 218 | 0% | 94% | |
| 219 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 222 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 223 | 4% | 93% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 225 | 0% | 89% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 227 | 0.8% | 89% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 229 | 0.9% | 88% | |
| 230 | 0.2% | 87% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 232 | 28% | 87% | |
| 233 | 0.5% | 59% | |
| 234 | 2% | 59% | Median |
| 235 | 3% | 57% | |
| 236 | 3% | 54% | |
| 237 | 7% | 51% | |
| 238 | 9% | 44% | |
| 239 | 0.4% | 35% | |
| 240 | 0% | 35% | |
| 241 | 0.2% | 34% | |
| 242 | 0.4% | 34% | |
| 243 | 16% | 34% | |
| 244 | 0.2% | 18% | |
| 245 | 0.5% | 18% | |
| 246 | 0.1% | 17% | |
| 247 | 2% | 17% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 249 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 250 | 0% | 15% | |
| 251 | 0% | 15% | |
| 252 | 12% | 15% | |
| 253 | 0% | 3% | |
| 254 | 0% | 3% | |
| 255 | 0% | 3% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 257 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 258 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 259 | 0% | 2% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 261 | 0% | 2% | |
| 262 | 0% | 2% | |
| 263 | 0% | 2% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 265 | 0% | 2% | |
| 266 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 267 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 269 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 271 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 275 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 278 | 0% | 0% | |
| 279 | 0% | 0% | |
| 280 | 0% | 0% | |
| 281 | 0% | 0% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0% | |
| 283 | 0% | 0% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0% | |
| 285 | 0% | 0% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0% | |
| 289 | 0% | 0% | |
| 290 | 0% | 0% | |
| 291 | 0% | 0% | |
| 292 | 0% | 0% | |
| 293 | 0% | 0% | |
| 294 | 0% | 0% | |
| 295 | 0% | 0% | |
| 296 | 0% | 0% | |
| 297 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 178 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 183 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 188 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 191 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 194 | 0% | 98% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 196 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 197 | 0% | 97% | |
| 198 | 2% | 97% | |
| 199 | 0% | 95% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 202 | 0% | 95% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 204 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 205 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 206 | 0% | 94% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 208 | 0% | 94% | |
| 209 | 0% | 94% | |
| 210 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 211 | 0% | 93% | |
| 212 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 213 | 4% | 93% | |
| 214 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 215 | 1.0% | 89% | |
| 216 | 1.1% | 88% | |
| 217 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 218 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 219 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 220 | 0.7% | 85% | |
| 221 | 29% | 84% | |
| 222 | 2% | 55% | |
| 223 | 0.3% | 54% | Median |
| 224 | 2% | 53% | |
| 225 | 0.6% | 51% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 51% | |
| 227 | 7% | 51% | |
| 228 | 0% | 43% | |
| 229 | 10% | 43% | |
| 230 | 15% | 33% | |
| 231 | 0.2% | 19% | |
| 232 | 0.1% | 18% | |
| 233 | 2% | 18% | |
| 234 | 0.6% | 17% | |
| 235 | 0.6% | 16% | |
| 236 | 0% | 15% | |
| 237 | 0% | 15% | |
| 238 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 239 | 0% | 15% | |
| 240 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 241 | 12% | 15% | |
| 242 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 243 | 0% | 2% | |
| 244 | 0% | 2% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 246 | 0% | 2% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 248 | 0% | 2% | |
| 249 | 0% | 2% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 251 | 0% | 2% | |
| 252 | 0% | 2% | |
| 253 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 254 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 256 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 259 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 263 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 264 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 265 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 267 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0% | |
| 269 | 0% | 0% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0% | |
| 271 | 0% | 0% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0% | |
| 275 | 0% | 0% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0% | |
| 278 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 175 | 0% | 100% | |
| 176 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 177 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 178 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 181 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 182 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 183 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 188 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 189 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 191 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 193 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 194 | 2% | 97% | |
| 195 | 0% | 95% | |
| 196 | 0% | 95% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 198 | 0% | 95% | |
| 199 | 0% | 95% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 201 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 202 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 205 | 0% | 94% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 208 | 0% | 94% | |
| 209 | 4% | 94% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 211 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 212 | 1.2% | 89% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 214 | 0.5% | 88% | |
| 215 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 216 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 217 | 0.5% | 86% | |
| 218 | 31% | 86% | |
| 219 | 0.5% | 55% | |
| 220 | 0.7% | 54% | Median |
| 221 | 2% | 53% | |
| 222 | 0.6% | 52% | |
| 223 | 0.3% | 51% | |
| 224 | 6% | 51% | |
| 225 | 1.2% | 45% | |
| 226 | 9% | 44% | |
| 227 | 17% | 35% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 229 | 0.2% | 18% | |
| 230 | 2% | 18% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 232 | 0.6% | 16% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 234 | 0% | 15% | |
| 235 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 236 | 0% | 15% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 238 | 12% | 15% | |
| 239 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 240 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 242 | 0% | 2% | |
| 243 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 244 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 246 | 0% | 2% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 248 | 0% | 2% | |
| 249 | 0% | 2% | |
| 250 | 2% | 2% | |
| 251 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 253 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 254 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 255 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 256 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 259 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 263 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 264 | 0% | 0% | |
| 265 | 0% | 0% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0% | |
| 267 | 0% | 0% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0% | |
| 269 | 0% | 0% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0% | |
| 271 | 0% | 0% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 175 | 0% | 100% | |
| 176 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 177 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 178 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 181 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 182 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 183 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 188 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 189 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 191 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 193 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 194 | 2% | 97% | |
| 195 | 0% | 95% | |
| 196 | 0% | 95% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 198 | 0% | 95% | |
| 199 | 0% | 95% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 201 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 202 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 205 | 0% | 94% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 208 | 0% | 94% | |
| 209 | 4% | 94% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 211 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 212 | 1.2% | 89% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 214 | 0.5% | 88% | |
| 215 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 216 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 217 | 0.5% | 86% | |
| 218 | 31% | 86% | |
| 219 | 0.5% | 55% | |
| 220 | 0.7% | 54% | Median |
| 221 | 2% | 53% | |
| 222 | 0.6% | 52% | |
| 223 | 0.3% | 51% | |
| 224 | 6% | 51% | |
| 225 | 1.2% | 45% | |
| 226 | 9% | 44% | |
| 227 | 17% | 35% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 229 | 0.2% | 18% | |
| 230 | 2% | 18% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 232 | 0.6% | 16% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 234 | 0% | 15% | |
| 235 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 236 | 0% | 15% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 238 | 12% | 15% | |
| 239 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 240 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 242 | 0% | 2% | |
| 243 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 244 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 246 | 0% | 2% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 248 | 0% | 2% | |
| 249 | 0% | 2% | |
| 250 | 2% | 2% | |
| 251 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 253 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 254 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 255 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 256 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 259 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 263 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 264 | 0% | 0% | |
| 265 | 0% | 0% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0% | |
| 267 | 0% | 0% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0% | |
| 269 | 0% | 0% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0% | |
| 271 | 0% | 0% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 156 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 158 | 0% | 97% | |
| 159 | 2% | 97% | |
| 160 | 0% | 95% | |
| 161 | 0% | 95% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 166 | 0% | 94% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 170 | 0% | 94% | |
| 171 | 0% | 94% | |
| 172 | 0% | 94% | |
| 173 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 174 | 0% | 93% | |
| 175 | 0% | 93% | |
| 176 | 4% | 93% | |
| 177 | 0.4% | 89% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 179 | 2% | 88% | |
| 180 | 0.7% | 87% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 86% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 86% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 184 | 27% | 85% | |
| 185 | 1.0% | 58% | |
| 186 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 187 | 12% | 50% | |
| 188 | 3% | 38% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 35% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 34% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 34% | |
| 192 | 1.1% | 34% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 33% | |
| 194 | 0% | 33% | |
| 195 | 15% | 33% | |
| 196 | 1.4% | 17% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 16% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 199 | 0.4% | 16% | |
| 200 | 0% | 15% | |
| 201 | 12% | 15% | |
| 202 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 203 | 0% | 3% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 205 | 0% | 3% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 208 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 210 | 0% | 2% | |
| 211 | 0% | 2% | |
| 212 | 0% | 2% | |
| 213 | 0% | 2% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 215 | 0% | 2% | |
| 216 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0% | |
| 232 | 0% | 0% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0% | |
| 239 | 0% | 0% | |
| 240 | 0% | 0% | |
| 241 | 0% | 0% | |
| 242 | 0% | 0% | |
| 243 | 0% | 0% | |
| 244 | 0% | 0% | |
| 245 | 0% | 0% | |
| 246 | 0% | 0% | |
| 247 | 0% | 0% | |
| 248 | 0% | 0% | |
| 249 | 0% | 0% | |
| 250 | 0% | 0% | |
| 251 | 0% | 0% | |
| 252 | 0% | 0% | |
| 253 | 0% | 0% | |
| 254 | 0% | 0% | |
| 255 | 0% | 0% | |
| 256 | 0% | 0% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0% | |
| 259 | 0% | 0% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0% | |
| 263 | 0% | 0% | |
| 264 | 0% | 0% | |
| 265 | 0% | 0% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party – Change UK
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 153 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 98% | |
| 155 | 2% | 98% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 157 | 0% | 95% | |
| 158 | 0% | 95% | |
| 159 | 0% | 95% | |
| 160 | 0% | 95% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 164 | 0% | 94% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 168 | 0% | 94% | |
| 169 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 171 | 0% | 93% | |
| 172 | 4% | 93% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 175 | 0.9% | 89% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 177 | 0.8% | 88% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 181 | 28% | 86% | |
| 182 | 1.1% | 58% | |
| 183 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 184 | 12% | 50% | |
| 185 | 3% | 38% | |
| 186 | 0.4% | 35% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 35% | |
| 188 | 0.4% | 34% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 34% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 34% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 34% | |
| 192 | 16% | 34% | |
| 193 | 2% | 18% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 195 | 0.6% | 16% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 16% | |
| 197 | 0% | 15% | |
| 198 | 12% | 15% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 201 | 0% | 3% | |
| 202 | 0% | 3% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 204 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 205 | 0% | 2% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 208 | 0% | 2% | |
| 209 | 0% | 2% | |
| 210 | 0% | 2% | |
| 211 | 0% | 2% | |
| 212 | 0% | 2% | |
| 213 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0% | |
| 232 | 0% | 0% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0% | |
| 239 | 0% | 0% | |
| 240 | 0% | 0% | |
| 241 | 0% | 0% | |
| 242 | 0% | 0% | |
| 243 | 0% | 0% | |
| 244 | 0% | 0% | |
| 245 | 0% | 0% | |
| 246 | 0% | 0% | |
| 247 | 0% | 0% | |
| 248 | 0% | 0% | |
| 249 | 0% | 0% | |
| 250 | 0% | 0% | |
| 251 | 0% | 0% | |
| 252 | 0% | 0% | |
| 253 | 0% | 0% | |
| 254 | 0% | 0% | |
| 255 | 0% | 0% | |
| 256 | 0% | 0% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0% | |
| 259 | 0% | 0% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 153 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 98% | |
| 155 | 2% | 98% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 157 | 0% | 95% | |
| 158 | 0% | 95% | |
| 159 | 0% | 95% | |
| 160 | 0% | 95% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 164 | 0% | 94% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 168 | 0% | 94% | |
| 169 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 171 | 0% | 93% | |
| 172 | 4% | 93% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 175 | 0.9% | 89% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 177 | 0.8% | 88% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 181 | 28% | 86% | |
| 182 | 1.1% | 58% | |
| 183 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 184 | 12% | 50% | |
| 185 | 3% | 38% | |
| 186 | 0.4% | 35% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 35% | |
| 188 | 0.4% | 34% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 34% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 34% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 34% | |
| 192 | 16% | 34% | |
| 193 | 2% | 18% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 195 | 0.6% | 16% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 16% | |
| 197 | 0% | 15% | |
| 198 | 12% | 15% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 201 | 0% | 3% | |
| 202 | 0% | 3% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 204 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 205 | 0% | 2% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 208 | 0% | 2% | |
| 209 | 0% | 2% | |
| 210 | 0% | 2% | |
| 211 | 0% | 2% | |
| 212 | 0% | 2% | |
| 213 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0% | |
| 232 | 0% | 0% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0% | |
| 239 | 0% | 0% | |
| 240 | 0% | 0% | |
| 241 | 0% | 0% | |
| 242 | 0% | 0% | |
| 243 | 0% | 0% | |
| 244 | 0% | 0% | |
| 245 | 0% | 0% | |
| 246 | 0% | 0% | |
| 247 | 0% | 0% | |
| 248 | 0% | 0% | |
| 249 | 0% | 0% | |
| 250 | 0% | 0% | |
| 251 | 0% | 0% | |
| 252 | 0% | 0% | |
| 253 | 0% | 0% | |
| 254 | 0% | 0% | |
| 255 | 0% | 0% | |
| 256 | 0% | 0% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0% | |
| 259 | 0% | 0% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Public
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 15–19 August 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1133
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.38%