Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 20–21 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 31.8% 30.4–33.3% 30.0–33.7% 29.6–34.1% 29.0–34.8%
Labour Party 40.0% 21.9% 20.6–23.2% 20.3–23.6% 20.0–23.9% 19.4–24.6%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 19.9% 18.7–21.2% 18.4–21.6% 18.1–21.9% 17.5–22.5%
Brexit Party 0.0% 11.9% 10.9–13.0% 10.7–13.3% 10.5–13.5% 10.0–14.1%
Green Party 1.6% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.1–8.1% 5.9–8.3% 5.5–8.7%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.4%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 312 292–334 288–339 277–345 268–345
Labour Party 262 139 131–165 125–177 113–186 111–199
Liberal Democrats 12 70 66–79 64–79 64–80 59–90
Brexit Party 0 39 27–52 19–56 19–56 15–67
Green Party 1 4 4 4–5 4–6 4–6
Scottish National Party 35 53 49–54 48–54 47–54 39–54
Plaid Cymru 4 10 5–11 4–12 4–13 4–14
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.3% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.6%  
268 0.6% 99.5%  
269 0.1% 98.9%  
270 0.1% 98.8%  
271 0.1% 98.7%  
272 0.2% 98.7%  
273 0.3% 98%  
274 0% 98%  
275 0.4% 98%  
276 0% 98%  
277 0.6% 98%  
278 0.4% 97%  
279 0.5% 97%  
280 0.2% 96%  
281 0% 96%  
282 0% 96%  
283 0.1% 96%  
284 0% 96%  
285 0.1% 96%  
286 0.3% 96%  
287 0.1% 96%  
288 2% 95%  
289 0.2% 93%  
290 0.1% 93%  
291 0.3% 93%  
292 4% 93%  
293 0.2% 89%  
294 0.2% 88%  
295 0.1% 88%  
296 0.4% 88%  
297 0.3% 88%  
298 1.0% 87%  
299 0.6% 86%  
300 18% 86%  
301 1.4% 68%  
302 0.4% 67%  
303 0.1% 66%  
304 2% 66%  
305 0.1% 64%  
306 0.2% 64%  
307 1.5% 64%  
308 1.2% 62%  
309 0.8% 61%  
310 2% 60%  
311 2% 58%  
312 6% 56% Median
313 8% 50%  
314 0.5% 42%  
315 2% 41%  
316 0.7% 40%  
317 0.9% 39% Last Result
318 1.1% 38%  
319 0.7% 37%  
320 5% 36%  
321 2% 31%  
322 0.8% 29%  
323 0.1% 28%  
324 0.1% 28%  
325 14% 28%  
326 0.1% 13% Majority
327 0.3% 13%  
328 0.1% 13%  
329 0.1% 13%  
330 0.4% 13%  
331 0.4% 12%  
332 0% 12%  
333 0% 12%  
334 2% 12%  
335 0.1% 10%  
336 0% 10%  
337 0% 10%  
338 0.2% 10%  
339 6% 9%  
340 0% 4%  
341 0% 4%  
342 0.2% 4%  
343 0.2% 3%  
344 0.1% 3%  
345 3% 3%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0.2% 100%  
101 0% 99.8%  
102 0% 99.8%  
103 0% 99.8%  
104 0% 99.8%  
105 0% 99.8%  
106 0% 99.8%  
107 0% 99.8%  
108 0% 99.8%  
109 0% 99.8%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 2% 99.7%  
112 0% 98%  
113 0.1% 98%  
114 0% 97%  
115 0% 97%  
116 0% 97%  
117 0.6% 97%  
118 0.1% 97%  
119 0% 97%  
120 0.1% 97%  
121 0.1% 97%  
122 0.4% 97%  
123 0% 96%  
124 0% 96%  
125 3% 96%  
126 0% 93%  
127 0.1% 93%  
128 0.4% 93%  
129 0.2% 93%  
130 0.2% 93%  
131 6% 92%  
132 0.1% 86%  
133 7% 86%  
134 0.1% 80%  
135 2% 80%  
136 0.4% 78%  
137 5% 77%  
138 18% 72%  
139 7% 54% Median
140 0.1% 47%  
141 2% 47%  
142 14% 45%  
143 1.0% 30%  
144 0.6% 29%  
145 1.1% 29%  
146 0.4% 27%  
147 0.1% 27%  
148 1.3% 27%  
149 0.6% 26%  
150 0.6% 25%  
151 0.4% 25%  
152 1.3% 24%  
153 0.1% 23%  
154 4% 23%  
155 0.2% 19%  
156 0.4% 19%  
157 1.1% 19%  
158 0.6% 18%  
159 0.3% 17%  
160 0.6% 17%  
161 2% 16%  
162 0.3% 14%  
163 0.1% 14%  
164 3% 14%  
165 2% 11%  
166 2% 10%  
167 0.5% 7%  
168 0.5% 7%  
169 0.3% 6%  
170 0% 6%  
171 0% 6%  
172 0% 6%  
173 0.1% 6%  
174 0.1% 6%  
175 0.4% 6%  
176 0.1% 5%  
177 0.6% 5%  
178 0.1% 5%  
179 0.3% 4%  
180 0.6% 4%  
181 0.1% 4%  
182 0% 3%  
183 0.1% 3%  
184 0.3% 3%  
185 0.3% 3%  
186 0.4% 3%  
187 0.1% 2%  
188 0.1% 2%  
189 0.1% 2%  
190 0.7% 2%  
191 0% 1.4%  
192 0.2% 1.4%  
193 0% 1.2%  
194 0% 1.2%  
195 0% 1.1%  
196 0% 1.1%  
197 0% 1.1%  
198 0.4% 1.1%  
199 0.7% 0.7%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.6%  
60 0.7% 99.3%  
61 0.4% 98.6%  
62 0.1% 98%  
63 0.5% 98%  
64 3% 98%  
65 3% 94%  
66 5% 91%  
67 7% 86%  
68 13% 79%  
69 3% 66%  
70 18% 63% Median
71 0.8% 45%  
72 0.3% 45%  
73 0.5% 44%  
74 2% 44%  
75 2% 42%  
76 3% 40%  
77 2% 36%  
78 22% 34%  
79 9% 12%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.1% 1.4%  
82 0.2% 1.3%  
83 0.1% 1.1%  
84 0% 1.0%  
85 0.2% 0.9%  
86 0% 0.7%  
87 0% 0.7%  
88 0% 0.7%  
89 0% 0.7%  
90 0.6% 0.6%  
91 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0.4% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.5%  
16 0.4% 99.5%  
17 0.1% 99.0%  
18 0.4% 98.9%  
19 4% 98.5%  
20 1.1% 94%  
21 0.2% 93%  
22 0.3% 93%  
23 0% 93%  
24 0.5% 93%  
25 0.3% 92%  
26 1.4% 92%  
27 2% 90%  
28 14% 88%  
29 6% 74%  
30 0.7% 68%  
31 0.1% 67%  
32 3% 67%  
33 2% 64%  
34 3% 62%  
35 0.3% 59%  
36 3% 59%  
37 0.5% 56%  
38 0.3% 55%  
39 7% 55% Median
40 0.9% 48%  
41 3% 47%  
42 3% 44%  
43 0.5% 41%  
44 1.3% 41%  
45 3% 39%  
46 2% 37%  
47 0.2% 35%  
48 1.2% 35%  
49 18% 33%  
50 5% 16%  
51 0.2% 10%  
52 0% 10%  
53 0.9% 10%  
54 0% 9%  
55 0% 9%  
56 7% 9%  
57 0.1% 2%  
58 0.7% 2%  
59 0.3% 1.5%  
60 0.1% 1.1%  
61 0.3% 1.0%  
62 0% 0.7%  
63 0% 0.7%  
64 0% 0.7%  
65 0% 0.6%  
66 0% 0.6%  
67 0.3% 0.6%  
68 0% 0.3%  
69 0% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.3%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 90% 99.6% Median
5 5% 9%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.5% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.5%  
40 0% 99.5%  
41 0% 99.4%  
42 0% 99.4%  
43 0% 99.4%  
44 0.3% 99.4%  
45 0.9% 99.2%  
46 0.2% 98%  
47 0.7% 98%  
48 6% 97%  
49 13% 91%  
50 0.6% 79%  
51 11% 78%  
52 4% 67%  
53 37% 64% Median
54 27% 27%  
55 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 7% 100% Last Result
5 5% 93%  
6 0.6% 88%  
7 17% 88%  
8 15% 71%  
9 5% 56%  
10 40% 51% Median
11 4% 10%  
12 2% 6%  
13 3% 4%  
14 0.2% 0.5%  
15 0% 0.3%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 386 100% 368–401 358–406 354–410 342–414
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 386 100% 368–401 358–406 354–410 342–414
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 371 99.7% 354–401 349–401 334–404 327–404
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 362 98.6% 346–388 339–393 327–399 319–399
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 351 91% 328–370 318–379 310–384 295–384
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 320 35% 301–347 295–347 285–350 274–352
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 312 13% 292–334 288–339 277–345 268–345
Conservative Party 317 312 13% 292–334 288–339 277–345 268–345
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 277 1.4% 258–299 249–310 244–318 244–332
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 267 0.1% 252–291 244–302 232–312 231–324
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 226 0% 206–250 195–257 192–267 190–281
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 216 0% 198–242 190–251 181–259 177–273
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 216 0% 198–242 190–251 181–259 177–273
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 201 0% 190–226 184–235 178–246 178–258
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 191 0% 183–218 179–228 165–239 165–250
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 149 0% 139–174 130–186 124–193 124–207
Labour Party – Change UK 262 139 0% 131–165 125–177 113–186 111–199
Labour Party 262 139 0% 131–165 125–177 113–186 111–199

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.9% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.0%  
344 0.1% 99.0%  
345 0.1% 98.8%  
346 0.1% 98.7%  
347 0% 98.6%  
348 0.6% 98.6%  
349 0.1% 98%  
350 0.2% 98%  
351 0% 98%  
352 0.1% 98%  
353 0% 98%  
354 0.2% 98%  
355 1.0% 97%  
356 0.5% 96%  
357 0.1% 96%  
358 1.2% 96%  
359 0.3% 95%  
360 0.1% 94%  
361 0.7% 94%  
362 0.1% 93%  
363 0.3% 93%  
364 0.6% 93%  
365 0.3% 93%  
366 0.1% 92%  
367 2% 92%  
368 5% 90%  
369 0.5% 85%  
370 0.1% 85%  
371 1.1% 85%  
372 0.2% 83%  
373 0.5% 83%  
374 0.1% 83%  
375 0.8% 83%  
376 0.2% 82%  
377 0.8% 82%  
378 18% 81%  
379 0.3% 63%  
380 1.2% 62%  
381 8% 61%  
382 1.0% 53% Median
383 0.3% 52%  
384 1.2% 52%  
385 0.8% 51%  
386 1.5% 50%  
387 2% 49%  
388 6% 47%  
389 0.2% 41%  
390 3% 41%  
391 7% 38%  
392 0.6% 31%  
393 2% 30%  
394 0.2% 28%  
395 14% 28%  
396 0.3% 14%  
397 0.4% 14%  
398 0.5% 13%  
399 0.4% 13%  
400 2% 12%  
401 0.1% 10%  
402 0.3% 10%  
403 0.1% 10%  
404 0% 10%  
405 0% 10%  
406 6% 10%  
407 0.2% 4%  
408 0.2% 4%  
409 0% 3%  
410 3% 3%  
411 0.1% 0.9%  
412 0.2% 0.8%  
413 0.1% 0.6%  
414 0.3% 0.5%  
415 0.2% 0.3%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0.1% 0.1%  
423 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.9% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.0%  
344 0.1% 99.0%  
345 0.1% 98.8%  
346 0.1% 98.7%  
347 0% 98.6%  
348 0.6% 98.6%  
349 0.1% 98%  
350 0.2% 98%  
351 0% 98%  
352 0.1% 98%  
353 0% 98%  
354 0.2% 98%  
355 1.0% 97%  
356 0.5% 96%  
357 0.1% 96%  
358 1.2% 96%  
359 0.3% 95%  
360 0.1% 94%  
361 0.7% 94%  
362 0.1% 93%  
363 0.3% 93%  
364 0.6% 93%  
365 0.3% 93%  
366 0.1% 92%  
367 2% 92%  
368 5% 90%  
369 0.5% 85%  
370 0.1% 85%  
371 1.1% 85%  
372 0.2% 83%  
373 0.5% 83%  
374 0.1% 83%  
375 0.8% 83%  
376 0.2% 82%  
377 0.8% 82%  
378 18% 81%  
379 0.3% 63%  
380 1.2% 62%  
381 8% 61%  
382 1.0% 53% Median
383 0.3% 52%  
384 1.2% 52%  
385 0.8% 51%  
386 1.5% 50%  
387 2% 49%  
388 6% 47%  
389 0.2% 41%  
390 3% 41%  
391 7% 38%  
392 0.6% 31%  
393 2% 30%  
394 0.2% 28%  
395 14% 28%  
396 0.3% 14%  
397 0.4% 14%  
398 0.5% 13%  
399 0.4% 13%  
400 2% 12%  
401 0.1% 10%  
402 0.3% 10%  
403 0.1% 10%  
404 0% 10%  
405 0% 10%  
406 6% 10%  
407 0.2% 4%  
408 0.2% 4%  
409 0% 3%  
410 3% 3%  
411 0.1% 0.9%  
412 0.2% 0.8%  
413 0.1% 0.6%  
414 0.3% 0.5%  
415 0.2% 0.3%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0.1% 0.1%  
423 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.8%  
325 0% 99.7%  
326 0% 99.7% Majority
327 0.9% 99.7%  
328 0.1% 98.8%  
329 0% 98.8%  
330 0.1% 98.7%  
331 0.2% 98.6%  
332 0% 98%  
333 0.4% 98%  
334 0.6% 98%  
335 0.1% 97%  
336 0% 97%  
337 0.7% 97%  
338 0% 97%  
339 0% 97%  
340 0.3% 97%  
341 0.2% 96%  
342 0% 96%  
343 0.2% 96%  
344 0.1% 96%  
345 0% 96%  
346 0.1% 96%  
347 0.1% 96%  
348 0.3% 95%  
349 1.1% 95%  
350 0.5% 94%  
351 0.2% 94%  
352 1.3% 93%  
353 0.1% 92%  
354 3% 92%  
355 1.1% 90%  
356 0.6% 88% Last Result
357 0.9% 88%  
358 2% 87%  
359 0.1% 85%  
360 0.2% 85%  
361 0.5% 84%  
362 0.1% 84%  
363 18% 84%  
364 1.1% 66%  
365 2% 65%  
366 5% 63%  
367 0.1% 58%  
368 0.2% 58%  
369 0.2% 58%  
370 1.0% 57%  
371 16% 56%  
372 0.1% 41%  
373 3% 41%  
374 0.9% 38%  
375 2% 37% Median
376 0.1% 35%  
377 1.1% 35%  
378 0.7% 34%  
379 0% 33%  
380 0.1% 33%  
381 0.6% 33%  
382 0.7% 33%  
383 0% 32%  
384 2% 32%  
385 0.3% 30%  
386 2% 30%  
387 0.4% 28%  
388 15% 27%  
389 0.3% 13%  
390 0.7% 13%  
391 0% 12%  
392 0.1% 12%  
393 0.3% 12%  
394 0.1% 11%  
395 0% 11%  
396 0.3% 11%  
397 0.2% 11%  
398 0% 11%  
399 0% 11%  
400 0.1% 11%  
401 8% 11%  
402 0% 3%  
403 0% 3%  
404 3% 3%  
405 0% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.3%  
407 0% 0.3%  
408 0.1% 0.3%  
409 0.2% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.8%  
318 0% 99.8%  
319 0.6% 99.7%  
320 0.3% 99.1%  
321 0% 98.8%  
322 0% 98.8%  
323 0.1% 98.8%  
324 0.1% 98.7%  
325 0% 98.6%  
326 0.7% 98.6% Majority
327 0.5% 98%  
328 0.6% 97%  
329 0% 97%  
330 0.3% 97%  
331 0% 96%  
332 0% 96%  
333 0.3% 96%  
334 0.1% 96%  
335 0.1% 96%  
336 0.1% 96%  
337 0% 96%  
338 0.1% 96%  
339 0.8% 96%  
340 0.3% 95%  
341 1.0% 95%  
342 0.9% 94%  
343 0% 93%  
344 0.5% 93%  
345 0.9% 92%  
346 3% 91%  
347 0.6% 88%  
348 0.1% 88%  
349 0.2% 87%  
350 0.9% 87%  
351 0.9% 86%  
352 0.2% 85% Last Result
353 19% 85%  
354 0.5% 66%  
355 0.4% 66%  
356 0.8% 66%  
357 2% 65%  
358 0% 62%  
359 3% 62%  
360 0.2% 60%  
361 8% 60%  
362 2% 51%  
363 3% 50%  
364 7% 47%  
365 0.5% 40% Median
366 0% 39%  
367 0.9% 39%  
368 0.1% 38%  
369 3% 38%  
370 0.7% 35%  
371 1.1% 34%  
372 0.1% 33%  
373 1.2% 33%  
374 2% 32%  
375 2% 30%  
376 0.4% 28%  
377 0% 28%  
378 14% 28%  
379 0.3% 13%  
380 0.2% 13%  
381 0.4% 13%  
382 0.1% 12%  
383 0.5% 12%  
384 0.1% 12%  
385 0.4% 12%  
386 0% 11%  
387 0% 11%  
388 2% 11%  
389 0.3% 9%  
390 0.2% 9%  
391 0% 9%  
392 0.1% 9%  
393 6% 9%  
394 0% 3%  
395 0.1% 3%  
396 0% 3%  
397 0% 3%  
398 0.1% 3%  
399 3% 3%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.7% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.3%  
297 0% 99.3%  
298 0% 99.3%  
299 0.4% 99.2%  
300 0.1% 98.8%  
301 0.1% 98.8%  
302 0% 98.6%  
303 0% 98.6%  
304 0% 98.6%  
305 0% 98.6%  
306 0.3% 98.6%  
307 0.7% 98%  
308 0% 98%  
309 0% 98%  
310 0.4% 98%  
311 0.1% 97%  
312 0.6% 97%  
313 0.2% 96%  
314 0.3% 96%  
315 0.1% 96%  
316 0.6% 96%  
317 0.1% 95% Last Result
318 0.8% 95%  
319 0.1% 94%  
320 0.1% 94%  
321 0.1% 94%  
322 0% 94%  
323 0% 94%  
324 2% 94%  
325 0.3% 92%  
326 0% 91% Majority
327 1.1% 91%  
328 1.0% 90%  
329 0.2% 89%  
330 2% 89%  
331 0.3% 87%  
332 1.2% 86%  
333 0.5% 85%  
334 0.6% 85%  
335 0.1% 84%  
336 0.4% 84%  
337 0.4% 84%  
338 1.2% 83%  
339 0.5% 82%  
340 0% 81%  
341 0.7% 81%  
342 0.4% 81%  
343 1.3% 80%  
344 0.6% 79%  
345 0.6% 78%  
346 1.2% 78%  
347 0.3% 77%  
348 0.4% 76%  
349 21% 76%  
350 0.1% 55%  
351 6% 55% Median
352 0.1% 49%  
353 16% 49%  
354 0.1% 32%  
355 0.1% 32%  
356 0.2% 32%  
357 2% 32%  
358 2% 30%  
359 0.7% 28%  
360 0.9% 27%  
361 0.1% 26%  
362 2% 26%  
363 0.1% 23%  
364 0% 23%  
365 0.2% 23%  
366 0.5% 23%  
367 0% 23%  
368 6% 23%  
369 7% 17%  
370 3% 10%  
371 0.4% 7%  
372 0.2% 7%  
373 0% 7%  
374 0.2% 7%  
375 0.7% 6%  
376 0% 6%  
377 0.1% 6%  
378 0% 6%  
379 3% 6%  
380 0.1% 3%  
381 0.4% 3%  
382 0% 3%  
383 0% 3%  
384 2% 3%  
385 0% 0.3%  
386 0% 0.3%  
387 0% 0.3%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0.2% 0.2%  
402 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.3% 99.9%  
274 0.2% 99.6%  
275 0% 99.4%  
276 0.7% 99.4%  
277 0.2% 98.7%  
278 0% 98%  
279 0% 98%  
280 0.2% 98%  
281 0% 98%  
282 0.4% 98%  
283 0% 98%  
284 0.2% 98%  
285 0.3% 98%  
286 0.8% 97%  
287 0% 97%  
288 0.1% 96%  
289 0.2% 96%  
290 0.2% 96%  
291 0.1% 96%  
292 0.1% 96%  
293 0.1% 96%  
294 0.1% 96%  
295 1.1% 96%  
296 0.3% 95%  
297 0.1% 94%  
298 0.1% 94%  
299 2% 94%  
300 2% 92%  
301 1.2% 90%  
302 0% 89%  
303 0.6% 89%  
304 0% 88%  
305 1.2% 88%  
306 2% 87%  
307 0.6% 85%  
308 0.2% 85%  
309 0.3% 85%  
310 18% 84%  
311 0.1% 67%  
312 3% 67%  
313 0.3% 63%  
314 0.2% 63%  
315 0.1% 63%  
316 2% 63%  
317 1.2% 61%  
318 3% 60%  
319 0% 57%  
320 8% 57%  
321 1.1% 49% Last Result
322 6% 48% Median
323 2% 41%  
324 4% 39%  
325 1.2% 36%  
326 0.6% 35% Majority
327 0.6% 34%  
328 0.4% 33%  
329 0% 33%  
330 2% 33%  
331 0.2% 31%  
332 2% 30%  
333 0.8% 28%  
334 0.1% 28%  
335 14% 28%  
336 0.5% 13%  
337 0.3% 13%  
338 0.2% 12%  
339 0% 12%  
340 0.1% 12%  
341 0.1% 12%  
342 0.1% 12%  
343 0% 12%  
344 0% 12%  
345 0% 12%  
346 0% 12%  
347 8% 12%  
348 0.3% 4%  
349 0.2% 4%  
350 3% 3%  
351 0% 0.7%  
352 0.2% 0.7%  
353 0.1% 0.4%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.3%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.3% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.6%  
268 0.6% 99.5%  
269 0.1% 98.9%  
270 0.1% 98.8%  
271 0.1% 98.7%  
272 0.2% 98.7%  
273 0.3% 98%  
274 0% 98%  
275 0.4% 98%  
276 0% 98%  
277 0.6% 98%  
278 0.4% 97%  
279 0.5% 97%  
280 0.2% 96%  
281 0% 96%  
282 0% 96%  
283 0.1% 96%  
284 0% 96%  
285 0.1% 96%  
286 0.3% 96%  
287 0.1% 96%  
288 2% 95%  
289 0.2% 93%  
290 0.1% 93%  
291 0.3% 93%  
292 4% 93%  
293 0.2% 89%  
294 0.2% 88%  
295 0.1% 88%  
296 0.4% 88%  
297 0.3% 88%  
298 1.0% 87%  
299 0.6% 86%  
300 18% 86%  
301 1.4% 68%  
302 0.4% 67%  
303 0.1% 66%  
304 2% 66%  
305 0.1% 64%  
306 0.2% 64%  
307 1.5% 64%  
308 1.2% 62%  
309 0.8% 61%  
310 2% 60%  
311 2% 58%  
312 6% 56% Median
313 8% 50%  
314 0.5% 42%  
315 2% 41%  
316 0.7% 40%  
317 0.9% 39% Last Result
318 1.1% 38%  
319 0.7% 37%  
320 5% 36%  
321 2% 31%  
322 0.8% 29%  
323 0.1% 28%  
324 0.1% 28%  
325 14% 28%  
326 0.1% 13% Majority
327 0.3% 13%  
328 0.1% 13%  
329 0.1% 13%  
330 0.4% 13%  
331 0.4% 12%  
332 0% 12%  
333 0% 12%  
334 2% 12%  
335 0.1% 10%  
336 0% 10%  
337 0% 10%  
338 0.2% 10%  
339 6% 9%  
340 0% 4%  
341 0% 4%  
342 0.2% 4%  
343 0.2% 3%  
344 0.1% 3%  
345 3% 3%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.3% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.6%  
268 0.6% 99.5%  
269 0.1% 98.9%  
270 0.1% 98.8%  
271 0.1% 98.7%  
272 0.2% 98.7%  
273 0.3% 98%  
274 0% 98%  
275 0.4% 98%  
276 0% 98%  
277 0.6% 98%  
278 0.4% 97%  
279 0.5% 97%  
280 0.2% 96%  
281 0% 96%  
282 0% 96%  
283 0.1% 96%  
284 0% 96%  
285 0.1% 96%  
286 0.3% 96%  
287 0.1% 96%  
288 2% 95%  
289 0.2% 93%  
290 0.1% 93%  
291 0.3% 93%  
292 4% 93%  
293 0.2% 89%  
294 0.2% 88%  
295 0.1% 88%  
296 0.4% 88%  
297 0.3% 88%  
298 1.0% 87%  
299 0.6% 86%  
300 18% 86%  
301 1.4% 68%  
302 0.4% 67%  
303 0.1% 66%  
304 2% 66%  
305 0.1% 64%  
306 0.2% 64%  
307 1.5% 64%  
308 1.2% 62%  
309 0.8% 61%  
310 2% 60%  
311 2% 58%  
312 6% 56% Median
313 8% 50%  
314 0.5% 42%  
315 2% 41%  
316 0.7% 40%  
317 0.9% 39% Last Result
318 1.1% 38%  
319 0.7% 37%  
320 5% 36%  
321 2% 31%  
322 0.8% 29%  
323 0.1% 28%  
324 0.1% 28%  
325 14% 28%  
326 0.1% 13% Majority
327 0.3% 13%  
328 0.1% 13%  
329 0.1% 13%  
330 0.4% 13%  
331 0.4% 12%  
332 0% 12%  
333 0% 12%  
334 2% 12%  
335 0.1% 10%  
336 0% 10%  
337 0% 10%  
338 0.2% 10%  
339 6% 9%  
340 0% 4%  
341 0% 4%  
342 0.2% 4%  
343 0.2% 3%  
344 0.1% 3%  
345 3% 3%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0.2% 100%  
227 0% 99.8%  
228 0% 99.8%  
229 0% 99.8%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0% 99.8%  
233 0% 99.8%  
234 0% 99.8%  
235 0% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.8%  
237 0% 99.8%  
238 0% 99.8%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.7%  
241 0% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0% 99.7%  
244 2% 99.6%  
245 0% 97%  
246 0.1% 97%  
247 0.4% 97%  
248 0.1% 97%  
249 3% 97%  
250 0% 94%  
251 0% 94%  
252 0.6% 94%  
253 0.1% 94%  
254 0.2% 94%  
255 0.2% 93%  
256 0.4% 93%  
257 0% 93%  
258 3% 93%  
259 7% 90%  
260 6% 83%  
261 0.1% 77%  
262 0.4% 77%  
263 0.1% 77%  
264 0% 77%  
265 0% 77%  
266 2% 77%  
267 0.1% 74%  
268 0.9% 74%  
269 3% 73%  
270 2% 70%  
271 0.1% 68%  
272 0.3% 68% Median
273 0.1% 68%  
274 0.1% 68%  
275 16% 68%  
276 0.4% 52%  
277 6% 51%  
278 0.2% 45%  
279 21% 45%  
280 0.1% 24%  
281 0.2% 24%  
282 1.2% 23%  
283 0.7% 22%  
284 0.4% 21%  
285 1.3% 21%  
286 1.0% 20%  
287 0.2% 19%  
288 0.4% 19%  
289 0.2% 18%  
290 1.2% 18%  
291 0.7% 17%  
292 0.1% 16%  
293 0.1% 16%  
294 1.0% 16%  
295 0% 15%  
296 1.2% 15%  
297 0.4% 14%  
298 2% 13%  
299 0.8% 11%  
300 1.4% 10%  
301 0% 9%  
302 0% 8%  
303 0.4% 8%  
304 2% 8%  
305 0% 6%  
306 0.1% 6%  
307 0.1% 6%  
308 0% 6%  
309 0.1% 6%  
310 0.8% 6%  
311 0.7% 5%  
312 0.1% 4%  
313 0.3% 4% Last Result
314 0% 4%  
315 0.2% 4%  
316 0.7% 3%  
317 0.3% 3%  
318 0.1% 3%  
319 0% 2%  
320 0.1% 2%  
321 0.7% 2%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0% 1.4%  
324 0% 1.4%  
325 0% 1.4%  
326 0.1% 1.4% Majority
327 0.1% 1.3%  
328 0% 1.2%  
329 0.4% 1.1%  
330 0% 0.8%  
331 0% 0.7%  
332 0.7% 0.7%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0.2% 100%  
219 0% 99.8%  
220 0% 99.8%  
221 0% 99.8%  
222 0% 99.8%  
223 0% 99.8%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0% 99.8%  
228 0% 99.8%  
229 0% 99.8%  
230 0% 99.7%  
231 2% 99.7%  
232 0.1% 98%  
233 0% 97%  
234 0% 97%  
235 0% 97%  
236 0% 97%  
237 0% 97%  
238 0% 97%  
239 0% 97%  
240 0.1% 97%  
241 0% 97%  
242 0.4% 97%  
243 0% 97%  
244 3% 97%  
245 0.6% 94%  
246 0.3% 94%  
247 0.2% 93%  
248 0% 93%  
249 0.4% 93%  
250 0.1% 93%  
251 0% 93%  
252 12% 93%  
253 0.1% 80%  
254 4% 80%  
255 0.4% 77%  
256 0% 76%  
257 2% 76%  
258 0.2% 74%  
259 0.5% 74%  
260 2% 73%  
261 2% 72%  
262 0.6% 70% Median
263 3% 69%  
264 0.1% 66%  
265 14% 66%  
266 0.1% 52%  
267 6% 52%  
268 0.3% 46%  
269 18% 45%  
270 0.5% 27%  
271 3% 27%  
272 0.3% 24%  
273 0.2% 23%  
274 0.8% 23%  
275 1.2% 22%  
276 0.1% 21%  
277 0% 21%  
278 0.4% 21%  
279 0.8% 21%  
280 2% 20%  
281 1.2% 18%  
282 0.4% 17%  
283 0.5% 16%  
284 0% 16%  
285 1.2% 16%  
286 0.2% 15%  
287 0.9% 14%  
288 0.3% 14%  
289 0.8% 13%  
290 0.2% 13%  
291 3% 12%  
292 0% 9%  
293 0.7% 9%  
294 0% 8%  
295 0% 8%  
296 2% 8%  
297 0% 6%  
298 0% 6%  
299 0.7% 6%  
300 0.1% 5%  
301 0% 5%  
302 0.7% 5%  
303 0% 4%  
304 0.1% 4%  
305 0.2% 4%  
306 0.5% 4%  
307 0% 4%  
308 0% 4%  
309 0.5% 4% Last Result
310 0.3% 3%  
311 0.2% 3%  
312 0.1% 3%  
313 0.1% 2%  
314 0.7% 2%  
315 0.2% 2%  
316 0% 1.4%  
317 0% 1.4%  
318 0% 1.4%  
319 0.2% 1.4%  
320 0% 1.2%  
321 0% 1.2%  
322 0.4% 1.1%  
323 0% 0.8%  
324 0.6% 0.7%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
176 0.2% 100%  
177 0% 99.8%  
178 0% 99.8%  
179 0% 99.8%  
180 0% 99.8%  
181 0% 99.8%  
182 0% 99.8%  
183 0% 99.8%  
184 0% 99.8%  
185 0% 99.8%  
186 0% 99.8%  
187 0% 99.8%  
188 0% 99.8%  
189 0% 99.8%  
190 2% 99.7%  
191 0% 98%  
192 0.1% 98%  
193 0.4% 97%  
194 0% 97%  
195 3% 97%  
196 0% 95%  
197 0% 94%  
198 0.6% 94%  
199 0.1% 94%  
200 0% 94%  
201 0.2% 94%  
202 0% 94%  
203 0% 94%  
204 0% 94%  
205 0.1% 94%  
206 6% 93%  
207 0% 87%  
208 7% 87%  
209 3% 81%  
210 0.5% 78%  
211 0% 77%  
212 2% 77%  
213 0.4% 75%  
214 1.0% 75%  
215 0.1% 74%  
216 0.4% 74%  
217 1.1% 73%  
218 0.5% 72%  
219 1.1% 72% Median
220 0.6% 71%  
221 4% 70%  
222 14% 66%  
223 0.4% 52%  
224 0.2% 52%  
225 0.5% 52%  
226 20% 51%  
227 0.2% 31%  
228 7% 31%  
229 0.3% 24%  
230 1.4% 24%  
231 0.4% 22%  
232 0.8% 22%  
233 1.4% 21%  
234 0.6% 20%  
235 0% 19%  
236 1.1% 19%  
237 0.9% 18%  
238 0% 17%  
239 0.3% 17%  
240 0.3% 17%  
241 0% 16%  
242 0.8% 16%  
243 2% 16%  
244 0.1% 14%  
245 0% 14%  
246 0.4% 14%  
247 0% 13%  
248 0.7% 13%  
249 1.0% 13%  
250 5% 12%  
251 0.8% 7%  
252 0.2% 6%  
253 0.1% 6%  
254 0% 6%  
255 0% 6%  
256 0.1% 6%  
257 0.8% 6%  
258 0% 5%  
259 0.1% 5%  
260 0.6% 5%  
261 0.3% 4%  
262 0.1% 4%  
263 0.7% 4%  
264 0.3% 3%  
265 0.1% 3%  
266 0.1% 3%  
267 0.7% 3%  
268 0.3% 2%  
269 0% 2%  
270 0.1% 1.5%  
271 0% 1.4%  
272 0% 1.4%  
273 0.1% 1.4%  
274 0% 1.3%  
275 0% 1.3%  
276 0% 1.3%  
277 0.1% 1.3%  
278 0.4% 1.1% Last Result
279 0% 0.7%  
280 0% 0.7%  
281 0.7% 0.7%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0.2% 100%  
169 0% 99.8%  
170 0% 99.8%  
171 0% 99.8%  
172 0% 99.8%  
173 0% 99.8%  
174 0% 99.8%  
175 0% 99.8%  
176 0% 99.8%  
177 2% 99.8%  
178 0% 98%  
179 0% 98%  
180 0% 98%  
181 0% 98%  
182 0% 97%  
183 0% 97%  
184 0% 97%  
185 0% 97%  
186 0.1% 97%  
187 0% 97%  
188 0.3% 97%  
189 0% 97%  
190 3% 97%  
191 0.6% 94%  
192 0.3% 94%  
193 0% 94%  
194 0% 94%  
195 0% 94%  
196 0.1% 94%  
197 0.1% 93%  
198 6% 93%  
199 0.2% 88%  
200 0% 87%  
201 7% 87%  
202 0% 81%  
203 2% 81%  
204 0.1% 79%  
205 4% 78%  
206 0.4% 74%  
207 0.3% 74%  
208 0.6% 74%  
209 4% 73% Median
210 0.1% 69%  
211 0.2% 69%  
212 14% 69%  
213 2% 55%  
214 0.2% 53%  
215 0.3% 52%  
216 18% 52%  
217 0.9% 34%  
218 9% 33%  
219 0.3% 25%  
220 1.1% 24%  
221 0.5% 23%  
222 0% 23%  
223 0.2% 23%  
224 0.4% 22%  
225 0.7% 22%  
226 2% 21%  
227 1.1% 20%  
228 1.2% 19%  
229 0% 17%  
230 0.1% 17%  
231 0.1% 17%  
232 1.1% 17%  
233 0.9% 16%  
234 0.4% 15%  
235 0.9% 15%  
236 0% 14%  
237 0.1% 14%  
238 0.8% 14%  
239 0.3% 13%  
240 0.3% 13%  
241 0.5% 12%  
242 2% 12%  
243 3% 9%  
244 0% 6%  
245 0.1% 6%  
246 0.7% 6%  
247 0.1% 5%  
248 0.1% 5%  
249 0.1% 5%  
250 0% 5%  
251 0.6% 5%  
252 0.2% 4%  
253 0.2% 4%  
254 0% 4%  
255 0.1% 4%  
256 0.7% 4%  
257 0.5% 3%  
258 0.2% 3%  
259 0.1% 3%  
260 0.7% 2%  
261 0.3% 2%  
262 0% 2%  
263 0.1% 2%  
264 0% 1.4%  
265 0.1% 1.4%  
266 0% 1.3%  
267 0% 1.3%  
268 0% 1.3%  
269 0% 1.3%  
270 0.1% 1.2%  
271 0.4% 1.1%  
272 0% 0.7%  
273 0.6% 0.7%  
274 0% 0.1% Last Result
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0.2% 100%  
169 0% 99.8%  
170 0% 99.8%  
171 0% 99.8%  
172 0% 99.8%  
173 0% 99.8%  
174 0% 99.8%  
175 0% 99.8%  
176 0% 99.8%  
177 2% 99.8%  
178 0% 98%  
179 0% 98%  
180 0% 98%  
181 0% 98%  
182 0% 97%  
183 0% 97%  
184 0% 97%  
185 0% 97%  
186 0.1% 97%  
187 0% 97%  
188 0.3% 97%  
189 0% 97%  
190 3% 97%  
191 0.6% 94%  
192 0.3% 94%  
193 0% 94%  
194 0% 94%  
195 0% 94%  
196 0.1% 94%  
197 0.1% 93%  
198 6% 93%  
199 0.2% 88%  
200 0% 87%  
201 7% 87%  
202 0% 81%  
203 2% 81%  
204 0.1% 79%  
205 4% 78%  
206 0.4% 74%  
207 0.3% 74%  
208 0.6% 74%  
209 4% 73% Median
210 0.1% 69%  
211 0.2% 69%  
212 14% 69%  
213 2% 55%  
214 0.2% 53%  
215 0.3% 52%  
216 18% 52%  
217 0.9% 34%  
218 9% 33%  
219 0.3% 25%  
220 1.1% 24%  
221 0.5% 23%  
222 0% 23%  
223 0.2% 23%  
224 0.4% 22%  
225 0.7% 22%  
226 2% 21%  
227 1.1% 20%  
228 1.2% 19%  
229 0% 17%  
230 0.1% 17%  
231 0.1% 17%  
232 1.1% 17%  
233 0.9% 16%  
234 0.4% 15%  
235 0.9% 15%  
236 0% 14%  
237 0.1% 14%  
238 0.8% 14%  
239 0.3% 13%  
240 0.3% 13%  
241 0.5% 12%  
242 2% 12%  
243 3% 9%  
244 0% 6%  
245 0.1% 6%  
246 0.7% 6%  
247 0.1% 5%  
248 0.1% 5%  
249 0.1% 5%  
250 0% 5%  
251 0.6% 5%  
252 0.2% 4%  
253 0.2% 4%  
254 0% 4%  
255 0.1% 4%  
256 0.7% 4%  
257 0.5% 3%  
258 0.2% 3%  
259 0.1% 3%  
260 0.7% 2%  
261 0.3% 2%  
262 0% 2%  
263 0.1% 2%  
264 0% 1.4%  
265 0.1% 1.4%  
266 0% 1.3%  
267 0% 1.3%  
268 0% 1.3%  
269 0% 1.3%  
270 0.1% 1.2%  
271 0.4% 1.1%  
272 0% 0.7%  
273 0.6% 0.7%  
274 0% 0.1% Last Result
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0.2% 100%  
159 0% 99.8%  
160 0% 99.8%  
161 0% 99.8%  
162 0% 99.8%  
163 0% 99.8%  
164 0% 99.8%  
165 0% 99.8%  
166 0% 99.8%  
167 0% 99.8%  
168 0% 99.8%  
169 0% 99.7%  
170 0% 99.7%  
171 0% 99.7%  
172 0% 99.7%  
173 0% 99.7%  
174 0% 99.6%  
175 0% 99.6%  
176 0% 99.6%  
177 0% 99.6%  
178 3% 99.6%  
179 0% 97%  
180 0.1% 97%  
181 0.6% 97%  
182 0.1% 96%  
183 0.2% 96%  
184 3% 96%  
185 0% 93%  
186 0.1% 93%  
187 0.4% 93%  
188 0.1% 92%  
189 0.1% 92%  
190 3% 92%  
191 8% 89%  
192 0.3% 81%  
193 6% 81%  
194 0.2% 74%  
195 0.1% 74%  
196 0.2% 74%  
197 0.1% 74%  
198 7% 74%  
199 0.9% 67%  
200 3% 66%  
201 18% 63%  
202 0.1% 45% Median
203 0.1% 45%  
204 1.2% 45%  
205 16% 44%  
206 0.2% 28%  
207 2% 28%  
208 0.4% 26%  
209 0.3% 25%  
210 0.9% 25%  
211 1.2% 24%  
212 0.7% 23%  
213 0.4% 22%  
214 0.1% 22%  
215 4% 22%  
216 0.7% 18%  
217 0.1% 18%  
218 0.1% 17%  
219 3% 17%  
220 0.8% 14%  
221 2% 13%  
222 0.1% 11%  
223 0.4% 11%  
224 0.1% 11%  
225 0.4% 11%  
226 0.5% 10%  
227 0.2% 10%  
228 2% 10%  
229 1.0% 7%  
230 0.5% 6%  
231 0.3% 6%  
232 0.2% 6%  
233 0% 5%  
234 0.4% 5%  
235 0.3% 5%  
236 0% 5%  
237 0% 5%  
238 0.3% 5%  
239 0.1% 4%  
240 0.2% 4%  
241 0.8% 4%  
242 0.3% 3%  
243 0.1% 3%  
244 0% 3%  
245 0.3% 3%  
246 0.4% 3%  
247 0.1% 2%  
248 0.1% 2%  
249 0.1% 2%  
250 0.1% 2%  
251 0.7% 2%  
252 0% 1.1%  
253 0% 1.1%  
254 0% 1.1%  
255 0% 1.1%  
256 0.4% 1.1%  
257 0% 0.7%  
258 0.6% 0.7%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0.2% 100%  
151 0% 99.8%  
152 0% 99.8%  
153 0% 99.8%  
154 0% 99.8%  
155 0% 99.8%  
156 0% 99.8%  
157 0% 99.8%  
158 0% 99.8%  
159 0.1% 99.8%  
160 0% 99.7%  
161 0% 99.7%  
162 0% 99.7%  
163 0% 99.7%  
164 0% 99.6%  
165 2% 99.6%  
166 0% 97%  
167 0% 97%  
168 0% 97%  
169 0% 97%  
170 0% 97%  
171 0.6% 97%  
172 0.1% 97%  
173 0.1% 97%  
174 0.1% 97%  
175 0.1% 96%  
176 0.4% 96%  
177 0.5% 96%  
178 0.1% 95%  
179 3% 95%  
180 0.5% 93%  
181 0.1% 92%  
182 0.4% 92%  
183 2% 92%  
184 7% 90%  
185 6% 83%  
186 3% 77%  
187 0.5% 74%  
188 6% 74%  
189 0.8% 68%  
190 1.2% 67%  
191 20% 66%  
192 0.9% 46% Median
193 0.4% 45%  
194 0.1% 44%  
195 16% 44%  
196 0.1% 28%  
197 0.1% 28%  
198 0.1% 28%  
199 1.1% 28%  
200 1.4% 27%  
201 0.1% 25%  
202 0.2% 25%  
203 0.5% 25%  
204 1.0% 25%  
205 0% 24%  
206 2% 24%  
207 2% 22%  
208 2% 19%  
209 0.3% 17%  
210 0.4% 17%  
211 0.7% 17%  
212 4% 16%  
213 1.4% 12%  
214 0.2% 11%  
215 0.4% 11%  
216 0% 10%  
217 0% 10%  
218 1.0% 10%  
219 0.9% 9%  
220 2% 8%  
221 0% 6%  
222 0.1% 6%  
223 0.5% 6%  
224 0% 5%  
225 0% 5%  
226 0% 5%  
227 0.1% 5%  
228 0.3% 5%  
229 0% 5%  
230 0.6% 5%  
231 0.2% 4%  
232 0.1% 4%  
233 0% 4%  
234 0.5% 4%  
235 0.1% 3%  
236 0.1% 3%  
237 0.1% 3%  
238 0.6% 3%  
239 0.4% 3%  
240 0% 2%  
241 0.1% 2%  
242 0.2% 2%  
243 0% 2%  
244 0.7% 2%  
245 0% 1.2%  
246 0% 1.1%  
247 0% 1.1%  
248 0% 1.1%  
249 0.4% 1.0%  
250 0.6% 0.7%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0.2% 100%  
109 0% 99.8%  
110 0% 99.8%  
111 0% 99.8%  
112 0% 99.8%  
113 0% 99.8%  
114 0% 99.8%  
115 0% 99.8%  
116 0% 99.8%  
117 0% 99.8%  
118 0% 99.8%  
119 0% 99.8%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0% 99.7%  
122 0% 99.6%  
123 0% 99.6%  
124 3% 99.6%  
125 0% 97%  
126 0% 97%  
127 0.5% 97%  
128 0.1% 96%  
129 0.1% 96%  
130 3% 96%  
131 0% 94%  
132 0.5% 94%  
133 0% 93%  
134 0% 93%  
135 0% 93%  
136 0.2% 93%  
137 0% 93%  
138 0.1% 93%  
139 6% 93%  
140 7% 87%  
141 3% 80%  
142 0.2% 77%  
143 2% 77%  
144 0.1% 75%  
145 0.2% 74%  
146 3% 74%  
147 0% 72%  
148 18% 72%  
149 7% 54% Median
150 1.5% 47%  
151 0.1% 45%  
152 14% 45%  
153 3% 31%  
154 0.7% 27%  
155 0.4% 27%  
156 0.9% 26%  
157 0.6% 26%  
158 0.6% 25%  
159 0.2% 24%  
160 0.4% 24%  
161 2% 24%  
162 3% 22%  
163 0.4% 19%  
164 0.3% 18%  
165 1.1% 18%  
166 0.3% 17%  
167 0.1% 17%  
168 0.6% 16%  
169 0.4% 16%  
170 0.7% 15%  
171 3% 15%  
172 0.3% 12%  
173 1.1% 12%  
174 3% 10%  
175 0% 8%  
176 1.3% 8%  
177 0.1% 7%  
178 0% 6%  
179 0.5% 6%  
180 0.2% 6%  
181 0.1% 6%  
182 0.1% 6%  
183 0.2% 6%  
184 0.3% 5%  
185 0.1% 5%  
186 0.5% 5%  
187 0.5% 4%  
188 0.6% 4%  
189 0.3% 3%  
190 0% 3%  
191 0.3% 3%  
192 0% 3%  
193 0.4% 3%  
194 0.1% 2%  
195 0% 2%  
196 0.1% 2%  
197 0.7% 2%  
198 0% 1.4%  
199 0.2% 1.4%  
200 0% 1.2%  
201 0% 1.2%  
202 0% 1.1%  
203 0% 1.1%  
204 0% 1.1%  
205 0.4% 1.1%  
206 0% 0.7%  
207 0.6% 0.7%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0.2% 100%  
101 0% 99.8%  
102 0% 99.8%  
103 0% 99.8%  
104 0% 99.8%  
105 0% 99.8%  
106 0% 99.8%  
107 0% 99.8%  
108 0% 99.8%  
109 0% 99.8%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 2% 99.7%  
112 0% 98%  
113 0.1% 98%  
114 0% 97%  
115 0% 97%  
116 0% 97%  
117 0.6% 97%  
118 0.1% 97%  
119 0% 97%  
120 0.1% 97%  
121 0.1% 97%  
122 0.4% 97%  
123 0% 96%  
124 0% 96%  
125 3% 96%  
126 0% 93%  
127 0.1% 93%  
128 0.4% 93%  
129 0.2% 93%  
130 0.2% 93%  
131 6% 92%  
132 0.1% 86%  
133 7% 86%  
134 0.1% 80%  
135 2% 80%  
136 0.4% 78%  
137 5% 77%  
138 18% 72%  
139 7% 54% Median
140 0.1% 47%  
141 2% 47%  
142 14% 45%  
143 1.0% 30%  
144 0.6% 29%  
145 1.1% 29%  
146 0.4% 27%  
147 0.1% 27%  
148 1.3% 27%  
149 0.6% 26%  
150 0.6% 25%  
151 0.4% 25%  
152 1.3% 24%  
153 0.1% 23%  
154 4% 23%  
155 0.2% 19%  
156 0.4% 19%  
157 1.1% 19%  
158 0.6% 18%  
159 0.3% 17%  
160 0.6% 17%  
161 2% 16%  
162 0.3% 14%  
163 0.1% 14%  
164 3% 14%  
165 2% 11%  
166 2% 10%  
167 0.5% 7%  
168 0.5% 7%  
169 0.3% 6%  
170 0% 6%  
171 0% 6%  
172 0% 6%  
173 0.1% 6%  
174 0.1% 6%  
175 0.4% 6%  
176 0.1% 5%  
177 0.6% 5%  
178 0.1% 5%  
179 0.3% 4%  
180 0.6% 4%  
181 0.1% 4%  
182 0% 3%  
183 0.1% 3%  
184 0.3% 3%  
185 0.3% 3%  
186 0.4% 3%  
187 0.1% 2%  
188 0.1% 2%  
189 0.1% 2%  
190 0.7% 2%  
191 0% 1.4%  
192 0.2% 1.4%  
193 0% 1.2%  
194 0% 1.2%  
195 0% 1.1%  
196 0% 1.1%  
197 0% 1.1%  
198 0.4% 1.1%  
199 0.7% 0.7%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0.2% 100%  
101 0% 99.8%  
102 0% 99.8%  
103 0% 99.8%  
104 0% 99.8%  
105 0% 99.8%  
106 0% 99.8%  
107 0% 99.8%  
108 0% 99.8%  
109 0% 99.8%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 2% 99.7%  
112 0% 98%  
113 0.1% 98%  
114 0% 97%  
115 0% 97%  
116 0% 97%  
117 0.6% 97%  
118 0.1% 97%  
119 0% 97%  
120 0.1% 97%  
121 0.1% 97%  
122 0.4% 97%  
123 0% 96%  
124 0% 96%  
125 3% 96%  
126 0% 93%  
127 0.1% 93%  
128 0.4% 93%  
129 0.2% 93%  
130 0.2% 93%  
131 6% 92%  
132 0.1% 86%  
133 7% 86%  
134 0.1% 80%  
135 2% 80%  
136 0.4% 78%  
137 5% 77%  
138 18% 72%  
139 7% 54% Median
140 0.1% 47%  
141 2% 47%  
142 14% 45%  
143 1.0% 30%  
144 0.6% 29%  
145 1.1% 29%  
146 0.4% 27%  
147 0.1% 27%  
148 1.3% 27%  
149 0.6% 26%  
150 0.6% 25%  
151 0.4% 25%  
152 1.3% 24%  
153 0.1% 23%  
154 4% 23%  
155 0.2% 19%  
156 0.4% 19%  
157 1.1% 19%  
158 0.6% 18%  
159 0.3% 17%  
160 0.6% 17%  
161 2% 16%  
162 0.3% 14%  
163 0.1% 14%  
164 3% 14%  
165 2% 11%  
166 2% 10%  
167 0.5% 7%  
168 0.5% 7%  
169 0.3% 6%  
170 0% 6%  
171 0% 6%  
172 0% 6%  
173 0.1% 6%  
174 0.1% 6%  
175 0.4% 6%  
176 0.1% 5%  
177 0.6% 5%  
178 0.1% 5%  
179 0.3% 4%  
180 0.6% 4%  
181 0.1% 4%  
182 0% 3%  
183 0.1% 3%  
184 0.3% 3%  
185 0.3% 3%  
186 0.4% 3%  
187 0.1% 2%  
188 0.1% 2%  
189 0.1% 2%  
190 0.7% 2%  
191 0% 1.4%  
192 0.2% 1.4%  
193 0% 1.2%  
194 0% 1.2%  
195 0% 1.1%  
196 0% 1.1%  
197 0% 1.1%  
198 0.4% 1.1%  
199 0.7% 0.7%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations