Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 27–28 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 33.8% 32.5–35.2% 32.1–35.6% 31.8–36.0% 31.2–36.6%
Labour Party 40.0% 21.9% 20.7–23.1% 20.4–23.5% 20.1–23.8% 19.6–24.4%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 16.9% 15.9–18.0% 15.6–18.3% 15.3–18.6% 14.8–19.2%
Brexit Party 0.0% 12.9% 12.0–13.9% 11.7–14.2% 11.5–14.5% 11.1–15.0%
Green Party 1.6% 8.0% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 333 312–344 311–352 310–357 296–363
Labour Party 262 121 117–152 114–162 107–162 100–166
Liberal Democrats 12 59 49–62 48–62 47–65 46–67
Brexit Party 0 56 33–57 28–58 28–61 23–72
Green Party 1 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Scottish National Party 35 51 49–54 47–54 47–54 42–54
Plaid Cymru 4 8 5–11 4–11 4–11 4–12
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 1.0% 99.8%  
297 0% 98.9%  
298 0% 98.8%  
299 0.2% 98.8%  
300 0.2% 98.7%  
301 0% 98.5%  
302 0.1% 98%  
303 0% 98%  
304 0% 98%  
305 0.1% 98%  
306 0.1% 98%  
307 0.2% 98%  
308 0.1% 98%  
309 0.1% 98%  
310 0.7% 98%  
311 3% 97%  
312 5% 94%  
313 0.1% 89%  
314 0.9% 88%  
315 0.5% 88%  
316 0.2% 87%  
317 0% 87% Last Result
318 6% 87%  
319 0.2% 81%  
320 0.5% 81%  
321 0% 80%  
322 0.2% 80%  
323 3% 80%  
324 0.1% 77%  
325 0.2% 77%  
326 1.2% 77% Majority
327 0.2% 76%  
328 2% 75%  
329 1.4% 74%  
330 1.0% 72%  
331 0% 71%  
332 0.5% 71%  
333 45% 71% Median
334 9% 26%  
335 1.2% 17%  
336 0.2% 15%  
337 0.3% 15%  
338 2% 15%  
339 0% 13%  
340 0.3% 13%  
341 0% 13%  
342 0.4% 13%  
343 0.3% 13%  
344 3% 12%  
345 0% 9%  
346 0.2% 9%  
347 0.3% 9%  
348 3% 8%  
349 0% 6%  
350 0.4% 6%  
351 0% 5%  
352 0.4% 5%  
353 0.1% 5%  
354 0.7% 5%  
355 0% 4%  
356 0.4% 4%  
357 2% 4%  
358 0.1% 2%  
359 0.2% 1.5%  
360 0% 1.3%  
361 0.6% 1.2%  
362 0% 0.7%  
363 0.2% 0.7%  
364 0% 0.4%  
365 0.2% 0.4%  
366 0% 0.3%  
367 0% 0.3%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0.1% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.2% 100%  
95 0% 99.7%  
96 0% 99.7%  
97 0% 99.7%  
98 0% 99.7%  
99 0% 99.7%  
100 0.2% 99.7%  
101 0% 99.5%  
102 0% 99.5%  
103 0.1% 99.4%  
104 0% 99.4%  
105 0% 99.4%  
106 0% 99.3%  
107 2% 99.3%  
108 0.1% 97%  
109 0.1% 97%  
110 0% 97%  
111 0% 97%  
112 0.1% 97%  
113 0.2% 96%  
114 2% 96%  
115 0% 94%  
116 0% 94%  
117 41% 94%  
118 0.1% 53%  
119 0.2% 53%  
120 0.7% 53%  
121 4% 52% Median
122 0% 48%  
123 0.7% 48%  
124 3% 47%  
125 0.1% 45%  
126 0% 45%  
127 0.4% 45%  
128 0.3% 44%  
129 0.1% 44%  
130 0.4% 44%  
131 0.3% 43%  
132 8% 43%  
133 0.5% 35%  
134 0.1% 35%  
135 2% 35%  
136 0.4% 33%  
137 0.5% 32%  
138 0.1% 32%  
139 2% 31%  
140 0.2% 30%  
141 0.5% 30%  
142 1.1% 29%  
143 0.2% 28%  
144 0.4% 28%  
145 0% 27%  
146 0.1% 27%  
147 1.3% 27%  
148 5% 26%  
149 2% 21%  
150 0.3% 19%  
151 0.2% 19%  
152 9% 19%  
153 0.2% 10%  
154 0.4% 9%  
155 0.1% 9%  
156 0.6% 9%  
157 0.1% 8%  
158 0% 8%  
159 0.6% 8%  
160 0% 8%  
161 0.1% 7%  
162 6% 7%  
163 0% 2%  
164 1.0% 2%  
165 0.1% 0.6%  
166 0.1% 0.5%  
167 0% 0.5%  
168 0% 0.4%  
169 0% 0.4%  
170 0.2% 0.4%  
171 0% 0.2%  
172 0% 0.2%  
173 0% 0.2%  
174 0% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0.1% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.8%  
47 4% 99.4%  
48 3% 96%  
49 10% 93%  
50 0.2% 83%  
51 2% 82%  
52 0.2% 81%  
53 1.3% 81%  
54 1.3% 79%  
55 0.3% 78%  
56 3% 78%  
57 19% 75%  
58 6% 56%  
59 2% 51% Median
60 1.0% 49%  
61 1.0% 48%  
62 42% 47%  
63 0.2% 4%  
64 0.2% 4%  
65 3% 4%  
66 0.3% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.4%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.1% 99.7%  
22 0.1% 99.6%  
23 0.1% 99.5%  
24 0% 99.5%  
25 0.2% 99.4%  
26 0.2% 99.2%  
27 0.1% 99.1%  
28 5% 99.0%  
29 3% 94%  
30 0% 91%  
31 0.5% 91%  
32 0.2% 90%  
33 0.2% 90%  
34 9% 90%  
35 0.6% 81%  
36 1.3% 80%  
37 0.7% 79%  
38 0.2% 78%  
39 0.4% 78%  
40 6% 77%  
41 0.9% 71%  
42 0.6% 70%  
43 0.4% 70%  
44 0.6% 69%  
45 0.6% 69%  
46 1.4% 68%  
47 1.0% 67%  
48 2% 66%  
49 2% 64%  
50 3% 63%  
51 0.1% 60%  
52 0.5% 60%  
53 0.7% 59%  
54 1.0% 59%  
55 0.1% 57%  
56 47% 57% Median
57 3% 10%  
58 4% 7%  
59 0.6% 4%  
60 0% 3%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.1% 1.2%  
63 0% 1.1%  
64 0.1% 1.1%  
65 0% 1.0%  
66 0.1% 1.0%  
67 0.1% 0.9%  
68 0% 0.8%  
69 0% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.7%  
71 0% 0.6%  
72 0.3% 0.6%  
73 0% 0.3%  
74 0% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.3%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 34% 100%  
5 55% 66% Median
6 9% 11%  
7 1.3% 1.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.7% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.2%  
44 0.3% 99.1%  
45 0.9% 98.8%  
46 0% 98%  
47 5% 98%  
48 3% 93%  
49 3% 90%  
50 2% 87%  
51 46% 86% Median
52 0.6% 40%  
53 8% 39%  
54 31% 31%  
55 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 9% 100% Last Result
5 10% 91%  
6 0.3% 81%  
7 11% 81%  
8 42% 69% Median
9 1.2% 27%  
10 8% 26%  
11 16% 18%  
12 0.9% 1.2%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 395 100% 371–396 369–406 368–413 354–413
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 395 100% 371–396 369–406 368–413 354–413
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 392 100% 372–405 369–412 367–413 359–424
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 384 100% 365–395 365–404 360–405 349–415
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 389 100% 360–390 352–396 350–398 343–416
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 341 87% 318–354 316–358 316–364 306–372
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 333 77% 312–344 311–352 310–357 296–363
Conservative Party 317 333 77% 312–344 311–352 310–357 296–363
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 238 0% 236–268 230–276 229–277 211–285
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 230 0% 226–261 220–272 219–272 204–276
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 189 0% 187–219 177–223 175–223 163–234
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 179 0% 176–212 175–219 171–219 162–227
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 179 0% 178–212 170–219 165–219 152–227
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 179 0% 178–212 170–219 165–219 152–227
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 170 0% 168–206 168–215 161–215 153–217
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 132 0% 125–160 124–166 117–166 112–174
Labour Party – Change UK 262 121 0% 117–152 114–162 107–162 100–166
Labour Party 262 121 0% 117–152 114–162 107–162 100–166

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 1.0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.0%  
356 0% 99.0%  
357 0% 98.9%  
358 0% 98.9%  
359 0% 98.9%  
360 0.1% 98.9%  
361 0.1% 98.8%  
362 0% 98.7%  
363 0.2% 98.7%  
364 0.1% 98.6%  
365 0.1% 98%  
366 0.2% 98%  
367 0.4% 98%  
368 0.2% 98%  
369 6% 97%  
370 2% 92%  
371 0.2% 90%  
372 0.6% 90%  
373 0.2% 89%  
374 0.2% 89%  
375 6% 89%  
376 1.5% 83%  
377 0.4% 81%  
378 1.0% 81%  
379 1.1% 80%  
380 3% 79%  
381 1.1% 76%  
382 0.3% 75%  
383 9% 75%  
384 1.0% 65%  
385 1.0% 64%  
386 0.2% 63%  
387 0.2% 63%  
388 0.3% 63%  
389 2% 63%  
390 3% 61%  
391 4% 58%  
392 0.5% 54% Median
393 1.3% 53%  
394 0.1% 52%  
395 41% 52%  
396 0.5% 10%  
397 0% 10%  
398 1.4% 10%  
399 0.1% 8%  
400 0.1% 8%  
401 0.1% 8%  
402 0.2% 8%  
403 0.7% 8%  
404 0% 7%  
405 0.1% 7%  
406 2% 7%  
407 0.3% 5%  
408 0% 5%  
409 0.8% 5%  
410 0.6% 4%  
411 0% 3%  
412 0.2% 3%  
413 3% 3%  
414 0% 0.3%  
415 0% 0.3%  
416 0.1% 0.3%  
417 0% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0.1% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 1.0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.0%  
356 0% 99.0%  
357 0% 98.9%  
358 0% 98.9%  
359 0% 98.9%  
360 0.1% 98.9%  
361 0.1% 98.8%  
362 0% 98.7%  
363 0.2% 98.7%  
364 0.1% 98.6%  
365 0.1% 98%  
366 0.2% 98%  
367 0.4% 98%  
368 0.2% 98%  
369 6% 97%  
370 2% 92%  
371 0.2% 90%  
372 0.6% 90%  
373 0.2% 89%  
374 0.2% 89%  
375 6% 89%  
376 1.5% 83%  
377 0.4% 81%  
378 1.0% 81%  
379 1.1% 80%  
380 3% 79%  
381 1.1% 76%  
382 0.3% 75%  
383 9% 75%  
384 1.0% 65%  
385 1.0% 64%  
386 0.2% 63%  
387 0.2% 63%  
388 0.3% 63%  
389 2% 63%  
390 3% 61%  
391 4% 58%  
392 0.5% 54% Median
393 1.3% 53%  
394 0.1% 52%  
395 41% 52%  
396 0.5% 10%  
397 0% 10%  
398 1.4% 10%  
399 0.1% 8%  
400 0.1% 8%  
401 0.1% 8%  
402 0.2% 8%  
403 0.7% 8%  
404 0% 7%  
405 0.1% 7%  
406 2% 7%  
407 0.3% 5%  
408 0% 5%  
409 0.8% 5%  
410 0.6% 4%  
411 0% 3%  
412 0.2% 3%  
413 3% 3%  
414 0% 0.3%  
415 0% 0.3%  
416 0.1% 0.3%  
417 0% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0.1% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
349 0% 100%  
350 0.1% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.8%  
353 0% 99.8%  
354 0% 99.8%  
355 0% 99.8%  
356 0% 99.8% Last Result
357 0% 99.8%  
358 0% 99.8%  
359 1.1% 99.8%  
360 0.1% 98.7%  
361 0.2% 98.5%  
362 0.2% 98%  
363 0% 98%  
364 0.6% 98%  
365 0% 98%  
366 0% 98%  
367 1.3% 98%  
368 0.2% 96%  
369 5% 96%  
370 0% 91%  
371 0.3% 91%  
372 2% 90%  
373 0.1% 89%  
374 0.2% 89%  
375 0.3% 88%  
376 0.4% 88%  
377 1.4% 88%  
378 0.4% 86%  
379 0.1% 86%  
380 0.2% 86%  
381 0.3% 86%  
382 0.7% 86%  
383 7% 85%  
384 0.8% 78%  
385 0% 77%  
386 0.4% 77%  
387 0.2% 77%  
388 4% 76%  
389 0.2% 73%  
390 0.6% 73%  
391 4% 72%  
392 41% 68% Median
393 10% 27%  
394 1.0% 17%  
395 0.1% 16%  
396 0.1% 16%  
397 0.5% 16%  
398 0.3% 15%  
399 1.3% 15%  
400 0.1% 14%  
401 0.4% 13%  
402 0% 13%  
403 1.5% 13%  
404 0.1% 12%  
405 3% 12%  
406 0.3% 8%  
407 0.1% 8%  
408 0.2% 8%  
409 0.6% 8%  
410 0.1% 7%  
411 0% 7%  
412 4% 7%  
413 0.2% 3%  
414 0.4% 2%  
415 0.2% 2%  
416 0% 2%  
417 0% 2%  
418 0% 2%  
419 0.1% 2%  
420 0.1% 2%  
421 0.4% 2%  
422 0.6% 1.2%  
423 0.1% 0.6%  
424 0.2% 0.6%  
425 0.1% 0.4%  
426 0.2% 0.4%  
427 0% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.2%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0.1% 0.1%  
436 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
343 0.1% 100%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.8%  
347 0% 99.8%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 1.0% 99.8%  
350 0% 98.8%  
351 0.1% 98.8%  
352 0.2% 98.8% Last Result
353 0.1% 98.6%  
354 0.2% 98.5%  
355 0.2% 98%  
356 0% 98%  
357 0.1% 98%  
358 0.2% 98%  
359 0.2% 98%  
360 2% 98%  
361 0.2% 96%  
362 0.2% 96%  
363 0% 96%  
364 0.5% 96%  
365 7% 95%  
366 0.3% 88%  
367 0.3% 88%  
368 0.9% 88%  
369 0.1% 87%  
370 0.9% 87%  
371 0% 86%  
372 6% 86%  
373 0.4% 80%  
374 0.1% 79%  
375 0% 79%  
376 0.8% 79%  
377 4% 78%  
378 0.1% 74%  
379 0.6% 74%  
380 4% 74%  
381 0.2% 69%  
382 0.2% 69%  
383 0.6% 69%  
384 42% 68% Median
385 0.1% 26%  
386 0.7% 26%  
387 0.9% 26%  
388 9% 25%  
389 1.3% 16%  
390 0.2% 15%  
391 0% 15%  
392 2% 15%  
393 0.8% 13%  
394 0.3% 12%  
395 3% 12%  
396 0.1% 8%  
397 0.3% 8%  
398 0.2% 8%  
399 0.2% 8%  
400 0% 8%  
401 0.3% 8%  
402 2% 7%  
403 0% 5%  
404 0.1% 5%  
405 3% 5%  
406 0.4% 2%  
407 0% 2%  
408 0.1% 2%  
409 0% 2%  
410 0.5% 2%  
411 0.1% 1.3%  
412 0% 1.2%  
413 0.2% 1.2%  
414 0% 1.0%  
415 0.6% 1.0%  
416 0% 0.4%  
417 0% 0.4%  
418 0% 0.4%  
419 0.2% 0.4%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0.1% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.8%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0% 99.8%  
343 1.3% 99.8%  
344 0% 98.5%  
345 0.4% 98%  
346 0% 98%  
347 0% 98%  
348 0.1% 98%  
349 0% 98%  
350 0.8% 98%  
351 0% 97%  
352 5% 97%  
353 0% 92%  
354 0.4% 92%  
355 0.3% 91%  
356 0.1% 91%  
357 0.1% 91%  
358 0.1% 91%  
359 0.4% 91%  
360 2% 90%  
361 0.7% 89%  
362 0.2% 88%  
363 0% 88%  
364 1.2% 88%  
365 0.6% 86%  
366 1.2% 86%  
367 2% 85%  
368 9% 83%  
369 0.1% 74%  
370 0.4% 74%  
371 0.2% 74%  
372 5% 73%  
373 0.1% 68%  
374 7% 68%  
375 0.5% 61%  
376 0.4% 61%  
377 0.2% 60%  
378 0.3% 60%  
379 0.3% 60%  
380 0% 60%  
381 3% 60%  
382 0.5% 57%  
383 0.2% 56%  
384 0% 56%  
385 2% 56%  
386 0% 54%  
387 2% 54%  
388 0.1% 52%  
389 41% 52% Median
390 3% 11%  
391 1.0% 8%  
392 0.1% 7%  
393 0.1% 7%  
394 0% 6%  
395 0% 6%  
396 2% 6%  
397 0% 5%  
398 3% 5%  
399 0.2% 2%  
400 0.1% 2%  
401 0.2% 2%  
402 0.6% 2%  
403 0.1% 1.3%  
404 0.1% 1.3%  
405 0% 1.2%  
406 0.4% 1.1%  
407 0% 0.8%  
408 0.1% 0.8%  
409 0.1% 0.7%  
410 0% 0.6%  
411 0% 0.6%  
412 0% 0.5%  
413 0% 0.5%  
414 0% 0.5%  
415 0% 0.5%  
416 0.5% 0.5%  
417 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0.1% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.8%  
304 0% 99.8%  
305 0% 99.8%  
306 1.1% 99.8%  
307 0.2% 98.7%  
308 0% 98%  
309 0% 98%  
310 0% 98%  
311 0% 98%  
312 0% 98%  
313 0.2% 98%  
314 0.4% 98%  
315 0.1% 98%  
316 5% 98%  
317 0.3% 92%  
318 3% 92%  
319 0% 89%  
320 0.4% 89%  
321 0.4% 89% Last Result
322 0% 88%  
323 0.9% 88%  
324 0% 87%  
325 0.4% 87%  
326 0% 87% Majority
327 0.3% 87%  
328 0.1% 87%  
329 6% 87%  
330 0.8% 80%  
331 0% 80%  
332 0.4% 80%  
333 0.3% 79%  
334 4% 79%  
335 0.6% 75%  
336 0.7% 75%  
337 1.5% 74%  
338 0.3% 73%  
339 11% 72%  
340 1.1% 62%  
341 41% 61% Median
342 0.1% 19%  
343 0.5% 19%  
344 3% 19%  
345 1.2% 16%  
346 0.3% 14%  
347 0.3% 14%  
348 0.2% 14%  
349 0.5% 14%  
350 0.4% 13%  
351 0.1% 13%  
352 0.3% 13%  
353 0% 12%  
354 4% 12%  
355 0.1% 9%  
356 0.3% 9%  
357 0% 8%  
358 4% 8%  
359 0% 5%  
360 0.3% 5%  
361 0% 4%  
362 0.1% 4%  
363 0% 4%  
364 2% 4%  
365 0% 2%  
366 0.1% 2%  
367 0.5% 2%  
368 0.6% 1.5%  
369 0.1% 0.9%  
370 0.2% 0.8%  
371 0.1% 0.7%  
372 0.1% 0.5%  
373 0.2% 0.4%  
374 0% 0.3%  
375 0.1% 0.3%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0.1% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 1.0% 99.8%  
297 0% 98.9%  
298 0% 98.8%  
299 0.2% 98.8%  
300 0.2% 98.7%  
301 0% 98.5%  
302 0.1% 98%  
303 0% 98%  
304 0% 98%  
305 0.1% 98%  
306 0.1% 98%  
307 0.2% 98%  
308 0.1% 98%  
309 0.1% 98%  
310 0.7% 98%  
311 3% 97%  
312 5% 94%  
313 0.1% 89%  
314 0.9% 88%  
315 0.5% 88%  
316 0.2% 87%  
317 0% 87% Last Result
318 6% 87%  
319 0.2% 81%  
320 0.5% 81%  
321 0% 80%  
322 0.2% 80%  
323 3% 80%  
324 0.1% 77%  
325 0.2% 77%  
326 1.2% 77% Majority
327 0.2% 76%  
328 2% 75%  
329 1.4% 74%  
330 1.0% 72%  
331 0% 71%  
332 0.5% 71%  
333 45% 71% Median
334 9% 26%  
335 1.2% 17%  
336 0.2% 15%  
337 0.3% 15%  
338 2% 15%  
339 0% 13%  
340 0.3% 13%  
341 0% 13%  
342 0.4% 13%  
343 0.3% 13%  
344 3% 12%  
345 0% 9%  
346 0.2% 9%  
347 0.3% 9%  
348 3% 8%  
349 0% 6%  
350 0.4% 6%  
351 0% 5%  
352 0.4% 5%  
353 0.1% 5%  
354 0.7% 5%  
355 0% 4%  
356 0.4% 4%  
357 2% 4%  
358 0.1% 2%  
359 0.2% 1.5%  
360 0% 1.3%  
361 0.6% 1.2%  
362 0% 0.7%  
363 0.2% 0.7%  
364 0% 0.4%  
365 0.2% 0.4%  
366 0% 0.3%  
367 0% 0.3%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0.1% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 1.0% 99.8%  
297 0% 98.9%  
298 0% 98.8%  
299 0.2% 98.8%  
300 0.2% 98.7%  
301 0% 98.5%  
302 0.1% 98%  
303 0% 98%  
304 0% 98%  
305 0.1% 98%  
306 0.1% 98%  
307 0.2% 98%  
308 0.1% 98%  
309 0.1% 98%  
310 0.7% 98%  
311 3% 97%  
312 5% 94%  
313 0.1% 89%  
314 0.9% 88%  
315 0.5% 88%  
316 0.2% 87%  
317 0% 87% Last Result
318 6% 87%  
319 0.2% 81%  
320 0.5% 81%  
321 0% 80%  
322 0.2% 80%  
323 3% 80%  
324 0.1% 77%  
325 0.2% 77%  
326 1.2% 77% Majority
327 0.2% 76%  
328 2% 75%  
329 1.4% 74%  
330 1.0% 72%  
331 0% 71%  
332 0.5% 71%  
333 45% 71% Median
334 9% 26%  
335 1.2% 17%  
336 0.2% 15%  
337 0.3% 15%  
338 2% 15%  
339 0% 13%  
340 0.3% 13%  
341 0% 13%  
342 0.4% 13%  
343 0.3% 13%  
344 3% 12%  
345 0% 9%  
346 0.2% 9%  
347 0.3% 9%  
348 3% 8%  
349 0% 6%  
350 0.4% 6%  
351 0% 5%  
352 0.4% 5%  
353 0.1% 5%  
354 0.7% 5%  
355 0% 4%  
356 0.4% 4%  
357 2% 4%  
358 0.1% 2%  
359 0.2% 1.5%  
360 0% 1.3%  
361 0.6% 1.2%  
362 0% 0.7%  
363 0.2% 0.7%  
364 0% 0.4%  
365 0.2% 0.4%  
366 0% 0.3%  
367 0% 0.3%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0.1% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
210 0.1% 100%  
211 0.4% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.5%  
213 0% 99.5%  
214 0% 99.5%  
215 0% 99.5%  
216 0% 99.4%  
217 0.1% 99.4%  
218 0% 99.4%  
219 0.1% 99.3%  
220 0.1% 99.2%  
221 0.2% 99.1%  
222 0% 98.9%  
223 0.1% 98.9%  
224 0.7% 98.8%  
225 0% 98%  
226 0.2% 98%  
227 0.2% 98%  
228 0.1% 98%  
229 2% 98%  
230 1.0% 95%  
231 0.6% 94%  
232 0% 94%  
233 0% 94%  
234 0.1% 94%  
235 0% 93%  
236 4% 93%  
237 0.5% 90%  
238 41% 89%  
239 0.9% 48% Median
240 0.8% 47%  
241 0.2% 46%  
242 0.1% 46%  
243 2% 46%  
244 0.5% 44%  
245 0.3% 43%  
246 3% 43%  
247 0.3% 40%  
248 0% 40%  
249 0.2% 40%  
250 0.4% 40%  
251 0.5% 40%  
252 1.2% 39%  
253 0.1% 38%  
254 6% 38%  
255 2% 32%  
256 4% 30%  
257 0.1% 26%  
258 0.2% 26%  
259 0.3% 26%  
260 9% 26%  
261 1.4% 17%  
262 2% 15%  
263 0% 14%  
264 1.1% 14%  
265 0.1% 12%  
266 1.3% 12%  
267 0% 11%  
268 1.4% 11%  
269 0.3% 10%  
270 0.1% 9%  
271 0.1% 9%  
272 0.1% 9%  
273 0.6% 9%  
274 0% 8%  
275 0% 8%  
276 5% 8%  
277 0.8% 3%  
278 0.1% 2%  
279 0% 2%  
280 0% 2%  
281 0.1% 2%  
282 0.1% 2%  
283 0.4% 2%  
284 0% 1.4%  
285 1.2% 1.4%  
286 0% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0.1% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
198 0.1% 100%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.8%  
203 0.1% 99.8%  
204 0.2% 99.7%  
205 0% 99.5%  
206 0% 99.5%  
207 0% 99.4%  
208 0.1% 99.4%  
209 0% 99.4%  
210 0.2% 99.4%  
211 0.1% 99.2%  
212 0.1% 99.1%  
213 0.1% 99.1%  
214 0% 99.0%  
215 0.2% 99.0%  
216 0.2% 98.7%  
217 0% 98.6%  
218 0.5% 98.5%  
219 2% 98%  
220 1.4% 96%  
221 0.1% 95%  
222 0% 94%  
223 0.1% 94%  
224 0.8% 94%  
225 3% 93%  
226 0.6% 90%  
227 0.1% 90%  
228 0.5% 90%  
229 0.1% 89%  
230 41% 89%  
231 0% 48% Median
232 0.8% 48%  
233 0.8% 47%  
234 0% 46%  
235 3% 46%  
236 2% 43%  
237 0.4% 41%  
238 0.2% 41%  
239 0.5% 41%  
240 0.7% 40%  
241 0.9% 40%  
242 0.1% 39%  
243 6% 39%  
244 0.3% 32%  
245 0.3% 32%  
246 4% 32%  
247 0.3% 28%  
248 2% 28%  
249 0.1% 26%  
250 0.2% 26%  
251 1.2% 26%  
252 0.2% 25%  
253 0.1% 25%  
254 1.2% 24%  
255 10% 23%  
256 0.2% 13%  
257 0.1% 13%  
258 0.2% 13%  
259 0.1% 12%  
260 1.2% 12%  
261 2% 11%  
262 0.5% 9%  
263 0% 9%  
264 0% 9%  
265 0% 9%  
266 0% 9%  
267 0.2% 9%  
268 0.8% 9%  
269 0.4% 8%  
270 0% 7%  
271 0% 7%  
272 5% 7%  
273 0% 2%  
274 0% 2%  
275 1.1% 2%  
276 0.3% 0.8%  
277 0% 0.5%  
278 0.1% 0.4%  
279 0% 0.3%  
280 0.1% 0.3%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
157 0.4% 100%  
158 0% 99.6%  
159 0% 99.6%  
160 0.1% 99.6%  
161 0% 99.5%  
162 0% 99.5%  
163 0% 99.5%  
164 0% 99.5%  
165 0.1% 99.4%  
166 0% 99.3%  
167 0.2% 99.3%  
168 0% 99.2%  
169 0.2% 99.2%  
170 0.1% 98.9%  
171 0.1% 98.9%  
172 0.2% 98.8%  
173 0.6% 98.6%  
174 0% 98%  
175 2% 98%  
176 0.1% 95%  
177 0.6% 95%  
178 0% 95%  
179 0% 95%  
180 0.1% 95%  
181 0.3% 95%  
182 0.4% 94%  
183 0.5% 94%  
184 0.1% 93%  
185 0.9% 93%  
186 0.8% 92%  
187 41% 92%  
188 0.2% 50% Median
189 3% 50%  
190 0% 47%  
191 0.1% 47%  
192 3% 47%  
193 0% 44%  
194 1.0% 44%  
195 2% 43%  
196 0.2% 41%  
197 0.4% 40%  
198 0.3% 40%  
199 0.3% 40%  
200 6% 39%  
201 2% 33%  
202 0.2% 32%  
203 2% 32%  
204 0.1% 30%  
205 3% 30%  
206 9% 27%  
207 2% 18%  
208 0.9% 16%  
209 0.4% 15%  
210 1.2% 14%  
211 0.1% 13%  
212 0.6% 13%  
213 0.3% 13%  
214 0.1% 12%  
215 0.3% 12%  
216 0.1% 12%  
217 0% 12%  
218 0.6% 12%  
219 2% 11%  
220 0.6% 9%  
221 0.1% 9%  
222 0.1% 9%  
223 7% 9%  
224 0% 2%  
225 0.1% 2%  
226 0% 2%  
227 0% 2%  
228 0% 2%  
229 0.2% 2%  
230 0.1% 2%  
231 0% 2%  
232 1.0% 2%  
233 0% 0.6%  
234 0.2% 0.6%  
235 0.2% 0.4%  
236 0% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.2%  
238 0% 0.2%  
239 0% 0.2%  
240 0% 0.2%  
241 0.1% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0.2% 100%  
156 0% 99.8%  
157 0% 99.7%  
158 0% 99.7%  
159 0% 99.7%  
160 0.1% 99.7%  
161 0% 99.6%  
162 0.3% 99.6%  
163 0% 99.3%  
164 0% 99.3%  
165 0% 99.3%  
166 0% 99.3%  
167 0% 99.2%  
168 0% 99.2%  
169 0.8% 99.2%  
170 0% 98%  
171 2% 98%  
172 0.4% 96%  
173 0.2% 96%  
174 0.1% 96%  
175 2% 96%  
176 41% 94%  
177 0.9% 53%  
178 0.2% 52%  
179 3% 52%  
180 0% 49% Median
181 0.1% 49%  
182 0.8% 48%  
183 0.1% 48%  
184 0.5% 48%  
185 0.1% 47%  
186 0.6% 47%  
187 2% 46%  
188 0.4% 44%  
189 2% 44%  
190 0.4% 41%  
191 0.3% 41%  
192 0.3% 41%  
193 0.4% 40%  
194 0% 40%  
195 0.1% 40%  
196 2% 40%  
197 7% 38%  
198 0.3% 31%  
199 1.1% 31%  
200 0.3% 30%  
201 0.2% 29%  
202 0.1% 29%  
203 1.4% 29%  
204 0.9% 28%  
205 0.6% 27%  
206 2% 26%  
207 0.4% 24%  
208 0.2% 24%  
209 3% 24%  
210 1.3% 21%  
211 9% 19%  
212 2% 11%  
213 0.3% 9%  
214 0.7% 9%  
215 0% 8%  
216 0.5% 8%  
217 0.2% 8%  
218 0% 7%  
219 6% 7%  
220 0% 2%  
221 0% 2%  
222 0.1% 2%  
223 0.1% 2%  
224 0.1% 2%  
225 0.1% 1.4%  
226 0% 1.4%  
227 1.1% 1.3%  
228 0% 0.2%  
229 0% 0.2%  
230 0% 0.2%  
231 0% 0.2%  
232 0% 0.2%  
233 0% 0.2%  
234 0% 0.2%  
235 0% 0.2%  
236 0% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.2%  
238 0.1% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0.1% 100%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.2% 99.7%  
151 0% 99.5%  
152 0% 99.5%  
153 0% 99.5%  
154 0% 99.5%  
155 0% 99.5%  
156 0.1% 99.5%  
157 0.1% 99.4%  
158 0% 99.3%  
159 0% 99.3%  
160 0.2% 99.2%  
161 0.2% 99.1%  
162 0.3% 98.9%  
163 0.1% 98.7%  
164 0.5% 98.6%  
165 2% 98%  
166 0% 96%  
167 0.1% 96%  
168 0.1% 96%  
169 0.6% 96%  
170 0.6% 95%  
171 0.1% 95%  
172 0.5% 95%  
173 0.1% 94%  
174 0.3% 94%  
175 1.0% 94%  
176 0% 93%  
177 0.1% 93%  
178 3% 92%  
179 42% 89%  
180 0.2% 47% Median
181 3% 47%  
182 0% 44%  
183 0% 44%  
184 0.3% 44%  
185 0.7% 44%  
186 0.3% 43%  
187 0.4% 43%  
188 2% 43%  
189 6% 41%  
190 0.9% 35%  
191 0.4% 34%  
192 0.9% 33%  
193 0.6% 32%  
194 2% 32%  
195 3% 30%  
196 0.3% 27%  
197 0.9% 27%  
198 0.4% 26%  
199 0.1% 25%  
200 1.4% 25%  
201 9% 24%  
202 0.6% 14%  
203 0.1% 14%  
204 0.3% 14%  
205 0.1% 13%  
206 1.3% 13%  
207 0.1% 12%  
208 0.5% 12%  
209 0.3% 12%  
210 0.1% 11%  
211 0.1% 11%  
212 1.2% 11%  
213 1.0% 10%  
214 1.0% 9%  
215 0% 8%  
216 0.1% 8%  
217 0.1% 8%  
218 0% 8%  
219 6% 8%  
220 0% 2%  
221 0% 2%  
222 1.1% 2%  
223 0.2% 0.9%  
224 0% 0.6%  
225 0% 0.6%  
226 0% 0.6%  
227 0.1% 0.5%  
228 0.2% 0.4%  
229 0% 0.2%  
230 0% 0.2%  
231 0% 0.2%  
232 0.1% 0.2%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0.1% 0.1%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0.1% 100%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.2% 99.7%  
151 0% 99.5%  
152 0% 99.5%  
153 0% 99.5%  
154 0% 99.5%  
155 0% 99.5%  
156 0.1% 99.5%  
157 0.1% 99.4%  
158 0% 99.3%  
159 0% 99.3%  
160 0.2% 99.2%  
161 0.2% 99.1%  
162 0.3% 98.9%  
163 0.1% 98.7%  
164 0.5% 98.6%  
165 2% 98%  
166 0% 96%  
167 0.1% 96%  
168 0.1% 96%  
169 0.6% 96%  
170 0.6% 95%  
171 0.1% 95%  
172 0.5% 95%  
173 0.1% 94%  
174 0.3% 94%  
175 1.0% 94%  
176 0% 93%  
177 0.1% 93%  
178 3% 92%  
179 42% 89%  
180 0.2% 47% Median
181 3% 47%  
182 0% 44%  
183 0% 44%  
184 0.3% 44%  
185 0.7% 44%  
186 0.3% 43%  
187 0.4% 43%  
188 2% 43%  
189 6% 41%  
190 0.9% 35%  
191 0.4% 34%  
192 0.9% 33%  
193 0.6% 32%  
194 2% 32%  
195 3% 30%  
196 0.3% 27%  
197 0.9% 27%  
198 0.4% 26%  
199 0.1% 25%  
200 1.4% 25%  
201 9% 24%  
202 0.6% 14%  
203 0.1% 14%  
204 0.3% 14%  
205 0.1% 13%  
206 1.3% 13%  
207 0.1% 12%  
208 0.5% 12%  
209 0.3% 12%  
210 0.1% 11%  
211 0.1% 11%  
212 1.2% 11%  
213 1.0% 10%  
214 1.0% 9%  
215 0% 8%  
216 0.1% 8%  
217 0.1% 8%  
218 0% 8%  
219 6% 8%  
220 0% 2%  
221 0% 2%  
222 1.1% 2%  
223 0.2% 0.9%  
224 0% 0.6%  
225 0% 0.6%  
226 0% 0.6%  
227 0.1% 0.5%  
228 0.2% 0.4%  
229 0% 0.2%  
230 0% 0.2%  
231 0% 0.2%  
232 0.1% 0.2%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0.1% 0.1%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0.1% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0.2% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.7%  
150 0.1% 99.7%  
151 0.1% 99.6%  
152 0% 99.5%  
153 0% 99.5%  
154 0.2% 99.5%  
155 0% 99.3%  
156 0% 99.3%  
157 0.1% 99.3%  
158 0% 99.3%  
159 0.8% 99.3%  
160 0% 98%  
161 2% 98%  
162 0.1% 96%  
163 0.2% 96%  
164 0% 96%  
165 0.1% 96%  
166 0% 96%  
167 0.2% 96%  
168 45% 95%  
169 0% 50%  
170 0.7% 50%  
171 0.6% 49%  
172 0.2% 49% Median
173 0.3% 49%  
174 0.2% 48%  
175 1.0% 48%  
176 0.3% 47%  
177 0.3% 47%  
178 3% 46%  
179 0.4% 44%  
180 2% 43%  
181 0.2% 41%  
182 0.3% 41%  
183 0% 41%  
184 0.2% 41%  
185 0.5% 41%  
186 6% 40%  
187 0.4% 34%  
188 1.0% 33%  
189 2% 32%  
190 0.3% 30%  
191 0.2% 30%  
192 0.6% 30%  
193 0.9% 29%  
194 0.1% 29%  
195 0.6% 28%  
196 2% 28%  
197 0.2% 26%  
198 0.6% 26%  
199 3% 25%  
200 0.1% 22%  
201 0% 22%  
202 2% 22%  
203 2% 20%  
204 0.3% 18%  
205 0% 18%  
206 9% 18%  
207 1.1% 9%  
208 0.1% 8%  
209 0.1% 8%  
210 0.1% 8%  
211 0% 8%  
212 0.5% 8%  
213 0% 7%  
214 0.1% 7%  
215 5% 7%  
216 0% 1.5%  
217 1.0% 1.4%  
218 0% 0.5%  
219 0.1% 0.5%  
220 0.2% 0.4%  
221 0% 0.2%  
222 0% 0.2%  
223 0% 0.2%  
224 0% 0.2%  
225 0% 0.2%  
226 0% 0.2%  
227 0% 0.2%  
228 0% 0.2%  
229 0.1% 0.2%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0.2% 100%  
102 0% 99.8%  
103 0% 99.8%  
104 0% 99.7%  
105 0% 99.7%  
106 0% 99.7%  
107 0% 99.7%  
108 0.1% 99.7%  
109 0% 99.6%  
110 0% 99.6%  
111 0% 99.6%  
112 0.2% 99.6%  
113 0% 99.4%  
114 0% 99.3%  
115 0% 99.3%  
116 0% 99.3%  
117 2% 99.3%  
118 0.5% 97%  
119 0.2% 97%  
120 0% 96%  
121 0.9% 96%  
122 0% 96%  
123 0.1% 96%  
124 2% 95%  
125 41% 94%  
126 0.1% 53%  
127 0% 52%  
128 0.7% 52%  
129 0.1% 52% Median
130 0.9% 52%  
131 0% 51%  
132 4% 51%  
133 0.2% 47%  
134 0.3% 47%  
135 3% 47%  
136 0.3% 44%  
137 0.1% 44%  
138 0.3% 44%  
139 2% 43%  
140 0.3% 41%  
141 0.5% 41%  
142 2% 40%  
143 6% 39%  
144 0.1% 33%  
145 0.5% 33%  
146 0.9% 32%  
147 0.4% 31%  
148 0.2% 31%  
149 0.3% 31%  
150 2% 30%  
151 0.3% 29%  
152 2% 28%  
153 0.3% 27%  
154 1.5% 26%  
155 0% 25%  
156 1.2% 25%  
157 9% 24%  
158 4% 15%  
159 0.6% 11%  
160 0.4% 10%  
161 0.5% 10%  
162 0.1% 9%  
163 0.7% 9%  
164 0.5% 8%  
165 0% 8%  
166 6% 8%  
167 0.1% 2%  
168 0.1% 2%  
169 0.1% 2%  
170 0% 2%  
171 0.1% 2%  
172 0% 2%  
173 0.1% 2%  
174 1.0% 1.4%  
175 0% 0.5%  
176 0.1% 0.5%  
177 0.2% 0.4%  
178 0% 0.2%  
179 0% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.2%  
181 0% 0.2%  
182 0% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.2%  
184 0% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0.1% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.2% 100%  
95 0% 99.7%  
96 0% 99.7%  
97 0% 99.7%  
98 0% 99.7%  
99 0% 99.7%  
100 0.2% 99.7%  
101 0% 99.5%  
102 0% 99.5%  
103 0.1% 99.4%  
104 0% 99.4%  
105 0% 99.4%  
106 0% 99.3%  
107 2% 99.3%  
108 0.1% 97%  
109 0.1% 97%  
110 0% 97%  
111 0% 97%  
112 0.1% 97%  
113 0.2% 96%  
114 2% 96%  
115 0% 94%  
116 0% 94%  
117 41% 94%  
118 0.1% 53%  
119 0.2% 53%  
120 0.7% 53%  
121 4% 52% Median
122 0% 48%  
123 0.7% 48%  
124 3% 47%  
125 0.1% 45%  
126 0% 45%  
127 0.4% 45%  
128 0.3% 44%  
129 0.1% 44%  
130 0.4% 44%  
131 0.3% 43%  
132 8% 43%  
133 0.5% 35%  
134 0.1% 35%  
135 2% 35%  
136 0.4% 33%  
137 0.5% 32%  
138 0.1% 32%  
139 2% 31%  
140 0.2% 30%  
141 0.5% 30%  
142 1.1% 29%  
143 0.2% 28%  
144 0.4% 28%  
145 0% 27%  
146 0.1% 27%  
147 1.3% 27%  
148 5% 26%  
149 2% 21%  
150 0.3% 19%  
151 0.2% 19%  
152 9% 19%  
153 0.2% 10%  
154 0.4% 9%  
155 0.1% 9%  
156 0.6% 9%  
157 0.1% 8%  
158 0% 8%  
159 0.6% 8%  
160 0% 8%  
161 0.1% 7%  
162 6% 7%  
163 0% 2%  
164 1.0% 2%  
165 0.1% 0.6%  
166 0.1% 0.5%  
167 0% 0.5%  
168 0% 0.4%  
169 0% 0.4%  
170 0.2% 0.4%  
171 0% 0.2%  
172 0% 0.2%  
173 0% 0.2%  
174 0% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0.1% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.2% 100%  
95 0% 99.7%  
96 0% 99.7%  
97 0% 99.7%  
98 0% 99.7%  
99 0% 99.7%  
100 0.2% 99.7%  
101 0% 99.5%  
102 0% 99.5%  
103 0.1% 99.4%  
104 0% 99.4%  
105 0% 99.4%  
106 0% 99.3%  
107 2% 99.3%  
108 0.1% 97%  
109 0.1% 97%  
110 0% 97%  
111 0% 97%  
112 0.1% 97%  
113 0.2% 96%  
114 2% 96%  
115 0% 94%  
116 0% 94%  
117 41% 94%  
118 0.1% 53%  
119 0.2% 53%  
120 0.7% 53%  
121 4% 52% Median
122 0% 48%  
123 0.7% 48%  
124 3% 47%  
125 0.1% 45%  
126 0% 45%  
127 0.4% 45%  
128 0.3% 44%  
129 0.1% 44%  
130 0.4% 44%  
131 0.3% 43%  
132 8% 43%  
133 0.5% 35%  
134 0.1% 35%  
135 2% 35%  
136 0.4% 33%  
137 0.5% 32%  
138 0.1% 32%  
139 2% 31%  
140 0.2% 30%  
141 0.5% 30%  
142 1.1% 29%  
143 0.2% 28%  
144 0.4% 28%  
145 0% 27%  
146 0.1% 27%  
147 1.3% 27%  
148 5% 26%  
149 2% 21%  
150 0.3% 19%  
151 0.2% 19%  
152 9% 19%  
153 0.2% 10%  
154 0.4% 9%  
155 0.1% 9%  
156 0.6% 9%  
157 0.1% 8%  
158 0% 8%  
159 0.6% 8%  
160 0% 8%  
161 0.1% 7%  
162 6% 7%  
163 0% 2%  
164 1.0% 2%  
165 0.1% 0.6%  
166 0.1% 0.5%  
167 0% 0.5%  
168 0% 0.4%  
169 0% 0.4%  
170 0.2% 0.4%  
171 0% 0.2%  
172 0% 0.2%  
173 0% 0.2%  
174 0% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0.1% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations