Opinion Poll by YouGov, 28–29 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 32.5% 31.1–33.9% 30.8–34.3% 30.4–34.7% 29.8–35.4%
Labour Party 40.0% 21.7% 20.5–23.0% 20.2–23.3% 19.9–23.6% 19.3–24.2%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 20.7% 19.5–21.9% 19.2–22.3% 18.9–22.6% 18.4–23.2%
Brexit Party 0.0% 11.8% 10.9–12.8% 10.7–13.1% 10.4–13.4% 10.0–13.9%
Green Party 1.6% 6.9% 6.2–7.7% 6.0–8.0% 5.8–8.2% 5.5–8.6%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.8%
Change UK 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 310 299–328 297–338 282–344 275–356
Labour Party 262 148 127–165 117–165 113–167 109–180
Liberal Democrats 12 75 71–80 70–80 67–81 62–85
Brexit Party 0 33 26–53 26–53 19–58 16–59
Green Party 1 4 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Scottish National Party 35 52 48–53 48–54 45–54 42–54
Plaid Cymru 4 7 4–10 4–11 4–11 4–13
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0.1% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.7%  
274 0% 99.7%  
275 0.4% 99.7%  
276 0.2% 99.3%  
277 0% 99.1%  
278 0% 99.1%  
279 0.3% 99.1%  
280 0% 98.8%  
281 0% 98.8%  
282 1.4% 98.7%  
283 0% 97%  
284 0% 97%  
285 0.3% 97%  
286 0.3% 97%  
287 0% 97%  
288 0% 97%  
289 0.1% 97%  
290 0% 97%  
291 0.1% 97%  
292 0.1% 97%  
293 0.1% 96%  
294 0.1% 96%  
295 0% 96%  
296 0.4% 96%  
297 2% 96%  
298 1.4% 93%  
299 7% 92%  
300 7% 85%  
301 1.1% 78%  
302 8% 77%  
303 0% 69%  
304 0.1% 69%  
305 1.5% 69%  
306 12% 68%  
307 0.9% 55%  
308 2% 54%  
309 0.2% 52%  
310 6% 52% Median
311 0.6% 46%  
312 2% 45%  
313 2% 43%  
314 0.4% 42%  
315 0.1% 41%  
316 0.5% 41%  
317 0.3% 41% Last Result
318 0.6% 40%  
319 0% 40%  
320 0% 40%  
321 0% 40%  
322 0.8% 40%  
323 24% 39%  
324 2% 15%  
325 0.2% 13%  
326 0.3% 13% Majority
327 0.1% 13%  
328 3% 12%  
329 2% 10%  
330 0% 8%  
331 0.3% 8%  
332 0.1% 7%  
333 0.2% 7%  
334 0.2% 7%  
335 0% 7%  
336 0% 7%  
337 1.0% 7%  
338 2% 6%  
339 0.1% 4%  
340 0.8% 4%  
341 0% 3%  
342 0% 3%  
343 0.2% 3%  
344 1.3% 3%  
345 0.1% 1.2%  
346 0.2% 1.1%  
347 0% 0.9%  
348 0.1% 0.9%  
349 0% 0.8%  
350 0% 0.8%  
351 0% 0.7%  
352 0.1% 0.7%  
353 0% 0.6%  
354 0% 0.6%  
355 0.1% 0.6%  
356 0.4% 0.5%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 2% 99.8%  
110 0% 98%  
111 0% 98%  
112 0.1% 98%  
113 0% 98%  
114 0% 97%  
115 0% 97%  
116 0.1% 97%  
117 3% 97%  
118 0.1% 95%  
119 0.2% 95%  
120 1.0% 95%  
121 1.3% 94%  
122 0.2% 92%  
123 0.1% 92%  
124 0% 92%  
125 0% 92%  
126 1.1% 92%  
127 1.0% 91%  
128 6% 90%  
129 0.1% 84%  
130 0.1% 84%  
131 0.5% 84%  
132 0.1% 83%  
133 1.5% 83%  
134 0.6% 82%  
135 1.4% 81%  
136 0.8% 80%  
137 0.9% 79%  
138 0.1% 78%  
139 0.7% 78%  
140 0.7% 77%  
141 0.2% 76%  
142 0% 76%  
143 0.4% 76%  
144 0.1% 76%  
145 17% 76%  
146 0% 59%  
147 0.5% 59%  
148 24% 59% Median
149 0.1% 34%  
150 0.3% 34%  
151 1.0% 34%  
152 0.1% 33%  
153 2% 33%  
154 2% 31%  
155 0% 29%  
156 2% 29%  
157 1.4% 26%  
158 0.2% 25%  
159 8% 25%  
160 0.1% 17%  
161 0.5% 16%  
162 0% 16%  
163 0.2% 16%  
164 0.1% 16%  
165 13% 16%  
166 0% 3%  
167 0.2% 3%  
168 0.6% 2%  
169 0.1% 2%  
170 0% 2%  
171 0.1% 2%  
172 0.1% 2%  
173 0.3% 2%  
174 0.3% 1.3%  
175 0.1% 1.0%  
176 0.2% 0.9%  
177 0.1% 0.7%  
178 0.1% 0.6%  
179 0% 0.5%  
180 0% 0.5%  
181 0.1% 0.5%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0% 0.3%  
184 0% 0.3%  
185 0% 0.3%  
186 0% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0.1% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.1% 99.5%  
63 0.1% 99.4%  
64 0% 99.3%  
65 0.3% 99.3%  
66 0.4% 99.0%  
67 2% 98.6%  
68 1.1% 97%  
69 0.4% 96%  
70 1.2% 95%  
71 11% 94%  
72 0.9% 83%  
73 14% 82%  
74 3% 68%  
75 27% 65% Median
76 6% 38%  
77 0.5% 32%  
78 4% 32%  
79 15% 28%  
80 10% 13%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0% 2%  
83 0.1% 2%  
84 0.7% 1.4%  
85 0.5% 0.7%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.2% 100%  
15 0.1% 99.8%  
16 0.2% 99.7%  
17 0.2% 99.5%  
18 0.1% 99.3%  
19 3% 99.2%  
20 0.9% 97%  
21 0% 96%  
22 0.1% 96%  
23 0% 95%  
24 0.3% 95%  
25 0.2% 95%  
26 27% 95%  
27 2% 68%  
28 13% 66%  
29 1.1% 53%  
30 0.2% 52%  
31 0% 51%  
32 0.3% 51%  
33 3% 51% Median
34 0.9% 48%  
35 3% 47%  
36 3% 44%  
37 0.3% 42%  
38 1.1% 42%  
39 8% 40%  
40 0.4% 32%  
41 0.4% 32%  
42 0.6% 31%  
43 0.2% 31%  
44 0.4% 31%  
45 2% 30%  
46 14% 29%  
47 0.1% 15%  
48 0.2% 15%  
49 0% 14%  
50 1.0% 14%  
51 0% 13%  
52 2% 13%  
53 6% 11%  
54 0.9% 5%  
55 0.4% 4%  
56 0% 4%  
57 0% 4%  
58 1.3% 4%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 72% 99.9% Median
5 26% 28%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.5% 99.9%  
43 0% 99.4%  
44 0.1% 99.4%  
45 2% 99.3%  
46 0.6% 97%  
47 0.3% 96%  
48 16% 96%  
49 20% 79%  
50 4% 60%  
51 4% 56%  
52 42% 52% Median
53 2% 10%  
54 8% 8%  
55 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 31% 100% Last Result
5 0.3% 69%  
6 0.6% 68%  
7 26% 68% Median
8 19% 42%  
9 9% 23%  
10 9% 14%  
11 3% 5%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.6% 0.7%  
14 0% 0.2%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 387 100% 373–401 372–413 363–414 359–427
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 387 100% 373–401 372–413 363–414 359–427
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 368 99.9% 356–386 356–398 340–401 335–414
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 359 99.7% 348–381 348–388 333–394 327–406
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 349 98% 334–368 330–374 326–381 312–382
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 319 41% 306–334 306–348 289–351 283–364
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 310 13% 299–328 297–338 282–344 275–356
Conservative Party 317 310 13% 299–328 297–338 282–344 275–356
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 279 0.2% 259–294 253–297 246–302 246–315
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 275 0.1% 251–287 243–288 238–296 236–308
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 227 0% 209–245 203–245 195–251 194–266
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 223 0% 200–238 193–238 186–245 184–257
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 223 0% 200–238 193–238 186–245 184–257
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 204 0% 185–221 177–221 174–224 171–237
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 200 0% 177–214 167–214 165–220 161–231
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 152 0% 136–172 127–172 124–174 119–187
Labour Party – Change UK 262 148 0% 127–165 117–165 113–167 109–180
Labour Party 262 148 0% 127–165 117–165 113–167 109–180

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0.1% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.8%  
351 0% 99.8%  
352 0% 99.8%  
353 0% 99.8%  
354 0% 99.8%  
355 0% 99.7%  
356 0.1% 99.7%  
357 0% 99.6%  
358 0% 99.6%  
359 0.1% 99.6%  
360 0.7% 99.4%  
361 0% 98.7%  
362 0% 98.7%  
363 2% 98.7%  
364 0% 97%  
365 0.3% 97%  
366 0% 97%  
367 0% 97%  
368 0% 97%  
369 0.4% 97%  
370 0.3% 96%  
371 0.8% 96%  
372 0.4% 95%  
373 8% 95%  
374 0.1% 87%  
375 0% 87%  
376 1.5% 87%  
377 2% 85%  
378 7% 83%  
379 13% 76%  
380 7% 63%  
381 0.6% 56%  
382 0.2% 55%  
383 0.1% 55%  
384 2% 55%  
385 0.1% 53% Median
386 2% 53%  
387 1.3% 50%  
388 1.4% 49%  
389 6% 48%  
390 0.4% 42%  
391 1.4% 41%  
392 1.4% 40%  
393 0.1% 38%  
394 0.1% 38%  
395 0.4% 38%  
396 0% 38%  
397 0.5% 38%  
398 25% 37%  
399 2% 13%  
400 0.1% 10%  
401 0.5% 10%  
402 0% 10%  
403 0.2% 10%  
404 2% 10%  
405 0.3% 7%  
406 0% 7%  
407 1.0% 7%  
408 0% 6%  
409 0.1% 6%  
410 0% 6%  
411 0.2% 6%  
412 0% 6%  
413 1.1% 6%  
414 3% 5%  
415 0% 2%  
416 0% 2%  
417 0% 2%  
418 1.1% 2%  
419 0% 1.0%  
420 0.1% 1.0%  
421 0% 0.8%  
422 0.3% 0.8%  
423 0% 0.5%  
424 0% 0.5%  
425 0% 0.5%  
426 0% 0.5%  
427 0.4% 0.5%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0.1% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.8%  
351 0% 99.8%  
352 0% 99.8%  
353 0% 99.8%  
354 0% 99.8%  
355 0% 99.7%  
356 0.1% 99.7%  
357 0% 99.6%  
358 0% 99.6%  
359 0.1% 99.6%  
360 0.7% 99.4%  
361 0% 98.7%  
362 0% 98.7%  
363 2% 98.7%  
364 0% 97%  
365 0.3% 97%  
366 0% 97%  
367 0% 97%  
368 0% 97%  
369 0.4% 97%  
370 0.3% 96%  
371 0.8% 96%  
372 0.4% 95%  
373 8% 95%  
374 0.1% 87%  
375 0% 87%  
376 1.5% 87%  
377 2% 85%  
378 7% 83%  
379 13% 76%  
380 7% 63%  
381 0.6% 56%  
382 0.2% 55%  
383 0.1% 55%  
384 2% 55%  
385 0.1% 53% Median
386 2% 53%  
387 1.3% 50%  
388 1.4% 49%  
389 6% 48%  
390 0.4% 42%  
391 1.4% 41%  
392 1.4% 40%  
393 0.1% 38%  
394 0.1% 38%  
395 0.4% 38%  
396 0% 38%  
397 0.5% 38%  
398 25% 37%  
399 2% 13%  
400 0.1% 10%  
401 0.5% 10%  
402 0% 10%  
403 0.2% 10%  
404 2% 10%  
405 0.3% 7%  
406 0% 7%  
407 1.0% 7%  
408 0% 6%  
409 0.1% 6%  
410 0% 6%  
411 0.2% 6%  
412 0% 6%  
413 1.1% 6%  
414 3% 5%  
415 0% 2%  
416 0% 2%  
417 0% 2%  
418 1.1% 2%  
419 0% 1.0%  
420 0.1% 1.0%  
421 0% 0.8%  
422 0.3% 0.8%  
423 0% 0.5%  
424 0% 0.5%  
425 0% 0.5%  
426 0% 0.5%  
427 0.4% 0.5%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
320 0.1% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9% Majority
327 0.1% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.8%  
329 0% 99.8%  
330 0% 99.8%  
331 0% 99.8%  
332 0% 99.8%  
333 0% 99.8%  
334 0.1% 99.8%  
335 0.7% 99.7%  
336 0% 99.0%  
337 0.2% 99.0%  
338 0% 98.8%  
339 0.1% 98.8%  
340 2% 98.7%  
341 0.3% 97%  
342 0% 97%  
343 0% 97%  
344 0% 97%  
345 0% 97%  
346 0% 97%  
347 0.1% 97%  
348 0% 97%  
349 0.1% 97%  
350 0% 97%  
351 0% 97%  
352 0% 97%  
353 0% 97%  
354 0.3% 96%  
355 0.1% 96%  
356 7% 96% Last Result
357 0.3% 89%  
358 18% 89%  
359 0.4% 71%  
360 1.3% 71%  
361 2% 69%  
362 14% 68%  
363 0.4% 54%  
364 0.3% 54%  
365 0.2% 54%  
366 0.9% 53%  
367 0.3% 53%  
368 5% 52%  
369 0.2% 47% Median
370 1.3% 47%  
371 0.1% 46%  
372 1.1% 46%  
373 0.2% 45%  
374 1.0% 45%  
375 0.5% 44%  
376 1.4% 43%  
377 1.3% 42%  
378 0.8% 40%  
379 24% 40%  
380 0.7% 15%  
381 1.3% 15%  
382 0.2% 13%  
383 0.6% 13%  
384 0.7% 13%  
385 0.2% 12%  
386 2% 12%  
387 0.2% 10%  
388 0% 10%  
389 0.1% 10%  
390 0.1% 9%  
391 2% 9%  
392 1.1% 7%  
393 0% 6%  
394 0.1% 6%  
395 0% 6%  
396 0.8% 6%  
397 0.1% 5%  
398 2% 5%  
399 0.2% 3%  
400 0.2% 3%  
401 1.0% 3%  
402 0.1% 2%  
403 0% 1.4%  
404 0.5% 1.4%  
405 0% 1.0%  
406 0.2% 1.0%  
407 0% 0.8%  
408 0% 0.8%  
409 0% 0.7%  
410 0% 0.7%  
411 0% 0.7%  
412 0% 0.7%  
413 0.1% 0.7%  
414 0.4% 0.7%  
415 0% 0.2%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0.1% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
316 0.1% 100%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.8%  
320 0% 99.8%  
321 0% 99.8%  
322 0% 99.8%  
323 0% 99.8%  
324 0% 99.8%  
325 0% 99.7%  
326 0% 99.7% Majority
327 0.4% 99.7%  
328 0.3% 99.3%  
329 0% 99.0%  
330 0.2% 99.0%  
331 0% 98.8%  
332 0% 98.8%  
333 1.4% 98.7%  
334 0.3% 97%  
335 0% 97%  
336 0% 97%  
337 0.2% 97%  
338 0% 97%  
339 0% 97%  
340 0% 97%  
341 0% 97%  
342 0.1% 97%  
343 0.2% 97%  
344 0% 96%  
345 0.2% 96%  
346 0% 96%  
347 0.4% 96%  
348 7% 96%  
349 2% 89%  
350 9% 87%  
351 7% 78%  
352 0.6% 71% Last Result
353 0.1% 70%  
354 0.3% 70%  
355 13% 70%  
356 1.3% 56%  
357 2% 55%  
358 0.4% 53%  
359 5% 53%  
360 1.3% 48%  
361 1.0% 46%  
362 0.2% 45% Median
363 0.5% 45%  
364 1.2% 45%  
365 0.1% 43%  
366 2% 43%  
367 0.8% 42%  
368 0.4% 41%  
369 0.1% 40%  
370 0.4% 40%  
371 0.3% 40%  
372 0.9% 40%  
373 0.4% 39%  
374 0.8% 38%  
375 24% 37%  
376 0.7% 13%  
377 0.6% 13%  
378 0.2% 12%  
379 0.4% 12%  
380 0.3% 12%  
381 2% 11%  
382 3% 9%  
383 0% 6%  
384 0% 6%  
385 0.9% 6%  
386 0.1% 5%  
387 0.1% 5%  
388 2% 5%  
389 0% 3%  
390 0% 3%  
391 0.1% 3%  
392 0.1% 3%  
393 0.1% 3%  
394 1.0% 3%  
395 0% 1.5%  
396 0% 1.4%  
397 0.2% 1.4%  
398 0.3% 1.3%  
399 0% 0.9%  
400 0.1% 0.9%  
401 0% 0.8%  
402 0.1% 0.8%  
403 0% 0.7%  
404 0% 0.7%  
405 0% 0.7%  
406 0.5% 0.7%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0.1% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0.1% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0% 99.8%  
304 0% 99.8%  
305 0% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.8%  
307 0% 99.7%  
308 0% 99.7%  
309 0% 99.7%  
310 0.1% 99.7%  
311 0% 99.5%  
312 0% 99.5%  
313 0.2% 99.5%  
314 0.4% 99.3%  
315 0.3% 98.9%  
316 0% 98.6%  
317 0% 98.6% Last Result
318 0% 98.6%  
319 0.1% 98.6%  
320 0.3% 98%  
321 0.2% 98%  
322 0.2% 98%  
323 0.1% 98%  
324 0% 98%  
325 0% 98%  
326 0.2% 98% Majority
327 0% 97%  
328 0.3% 97%  
329 0.3% 97%  
330 2% 97%  
331 1.2% 95%  
332 0% 94%  
333 0.5% 94%  
334 12% 93%  
335 2% 81%  
336 0.3% 79%  
337 0.1% 79%  
338 0.5% 79%  
339 0.1% 78%  
340 2% 78%  
341 8% 76%  
342 0.8% 68%  
343 0.6% 67% Median
344 0.4% 67%  
345 7% 66%  
346 7% 59%  
347 0.1% 52%  
348 0.1% 52%  
349 24% 52%  
350 1.1% 27%  
351 0.7% 26%  
352 0.1% 26%  
353 0.1% 26%  
354 2% 25%  
355 0.6% 23%  
356 2% 23%  
357 0.5% 21%  
358 0.8% 21%  
359 0.2% 20%  
360 1.0% 20%  
361 0.1% 19%  
362 0.2% 19%  
363 6% 18%  
364 0.2% 12%  
365 0.6% 12%  
366 0.1% 12%  
367 1.4% 12%  
368 0.1% 10%  
369 1.2% 10%  
370 0.4% 9%  
371 2% 8%  
372 0% 7%  
373 0.2% 7%  
374 2% 7%  
375 1.0% 4%  
376 0.2% 3%  
377 0.1% 3%  
378 0% 3%  
379 0% 3%  
380 0% 3%  
381 2% 3%  
382 0.5% 0.9%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0% 0.3%  
385 0% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.3%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0.1% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.7%  
283 0.6% 99.7%  
284 0% 99.2%  
285 0% 99.1%  
286 0.3% 99.1%  
287 0% 98.8%  
288 0.1% 98.8%  
289 1.4% 98.8%  
290 0.2% 97%  
291 0.2% 97%  
292 0.1% 97%  
293 0.1% 97%  
294 0% 97%  
295 0% 97%  
296 0% 97%  
297 0% 97%  
298 0.1% 97%  
299 0% 97%  
300 0% 97%  
301 0.1% 97%  
302 0% 96%  
303 0.2% 96%  
304 0% 96%  
305 0.6% 96%  
306 11% 96%  
307 0.1% 85%  
308 8% 85%  
309 1.5% 77%  
310 8% 76%  
311 0.7% 68%  
312 0.6% 67%  
313 12% 66%  
314 0.3% 54%  
315 0.1% 54%  
316 0.3% 54%  
317 0.2% 53% Median
318 2% 53%  
319 5% 51%  
320 0.2% 46%  
321 2% 46% Last Result
322 0.3% 44%  
323 0.7% 43%  
324 2% 43%  
325 0% 41%  
326 1.0% 41% Majority
327 24% 40%  
328 0.7% 16%  
329 0.2% 15%  
330 0.3% 15%  
331 0.8% 15%  
332 3% 14%  
333 1.1% 11%  
334 0.2% 10%  
335 0% 10%  
336 0.1% 10%  
337 0.1% 10%  
338 0% 10%  
339 2% 10%  
340 0.2% 7%  
341 0% 7%  
342 0.2% 7%  
343 0.1% 7%  
344 0% 7%  
345 0% 7%  
346 0.1% 7%  
347 1.1% 7%  
348 2% 6%  
349 0.1% 4%  
350 0.5% 3%  
351 2% 3%  
352 0.2% 1.2%  
353 0.2% 1.0%  
354 0% 0.8%  
355 0% 0.8%  
356 0% 0.8%  
357 0% 0.8%  
358 0% 0.8%  
359 0% 0.8%  
360 0% 0.7%  
361 0% 0.7%  
362 0.1% 0.7%  
363 0% 0.6%  
364 0.4% 0.6%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0.1% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.7%  
274 0% 99.7%  
275 0.4% 99.7%  
276 0.2% 99.3%  
277 0% 99.1%  
278 0% 99.1%  
279 0.3% 99.1%  
280 0% 98.8%  
281 0% 98.8%  
282 1.4% 98.7%  
283 0% 97%  
284 0% 97%  
285 0.3% 97%  
286 0.3% 97%  
287 0% 97%  
288 0% 97%  
289 0.1% 97%  
290 0% 97%  
291 0.1% 97%  
292 0.1% 97%  
293 0.1% 96%  
294 0.1% 96%  
295 0% 96%  
296 0.4% 96%  
297 2% 96%  
298 1.4% 93%  
299 7% 92%  
300 7% 85%  
301 1.1% 78%  
302 8% 77%  
303 0% 69%  
304 0.1% 69%  
305 1.5% 69%  
306 12% 68%  
307 0.9% 55%  
308 2% 54%  
309 0.2% 52%  
310 6% 52% Median
311 0.6% 46%  
312 2% 45%  
313 2% 43%  
314 0.4% 42%  
315 0.1% 41%  
316 0.5% 41%  
317 0.3% 41% Last Result
318 0.6% 40%  
319 0% 40%  
320 0% 40%  
321 0% 40%  
322 0.8% 40%  
323 24% 39%  
324 2% 15%  
325 0.2% 13%  
326 0.3% 13% Majority
327 0.1% 13%  
328 3% 12%  
329 2% 10%  
330 0% 8%  
331 0.3% 8%  
332 0.1% 7%  
333 0.2% 7%  
334 0.2% 7%  
335 0% 7%  
336 0% 7%  
337 1.0% 7%  
338 2% 6%  
339 0.1% 4%  
340 0.8% 4%  
341 0% 3%  
342 0% 3%  
343 0.2% 3%  
344 1.3% 3%  
345 0.1% 1.2%  
346 0.2% 1.1%  
347 0% 0.9%  
348 0.1% 0.9%  
349 0% 0.8%  
350 0% 0.8%  
351 0% 0.7%  
352 0.1% 0.7%  
353 0% 0.6%  
354 0% 0.6%  
355 0.1% 0.6%  
356 0.4% 0.5%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0.1% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.7%  
274 0% 99.7%  
275 0.4% 99.7%  
276 0.2% 99.3%  
277 0% 99.1%  
278 0% 99.1%  
279 0.3% 99.1%  
280 0% 98.8%  
281 0% 98.8%  
282 1.4% 98.7%  
283 0% 97%  
284 0% 97%  
285 0.3% 97%  
286 0.3% 97%  
287 0% 97%  
288 0% 97%  
289 0.1% 97%  
290 0% 97%  
291 0.1% 97%  
292 0.1% 97%  
293 0.1% 96%  
294 0.1% 96%  
295 0% 96%  
296 0.4% 96%  
297 2% 96%  
298 1.4% 93%  
299 7% 92%  
300 7% 85%  
301 1.1% 78%  
302 8% 77%  
303 0% 69%  
304 0.1% 69%  
305 1.5% 69%  
306 12% 68%  
307 0.9% 55%  
308 2% 54%  
309 0.2% 52%  
310 6% 52% Median
311 0.6% 46%  
312 2% 45%  
313 2% 43%  
314 0.4% 42%  
315 0.1% 41%  
316 0.5% 41%  
317 0.3% 41% Last Result
318 0.6% 40%  
319 0% 40%  
320 0% 40%  
321 0% 40%  
322 0.8% 40%  
323 24% 39%  
324 2% 15%  
325 0.2% 13%  
326 0.3% 13% Majority
327 0.1% 13%  
328 3% 12%  
329 2% 10%  
330 0% 8%  
331 0.3% 8%  
332 0.1% 7%  
333 0.2% 7%  
334 0.2% 7%  
335 0% 7%  
336 0% 7%  
337 1.0% 7%  
338 2% 6%  
339 0.1% 4%  
340 0.8% 4%  
341 0% 3%  
342 0% 3%  
343 0.2% 3%  
344 1.3% 3%  
345 0.1% 1.2%  
346 0.2% 1.1%  
347 0% 0.9%  
348 0.1% 0.9%  
349 0% 0.8%  
350 0% 0.8%  
351 0% 0.7%  
352 0.1% 0.7%  
353 0% 0.6%  
354 0% 0.6%  
355 0.1% 0.6%  
356 0.4% 0.5%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.6%  
245 0% 99.6%  
246 2% 99.5%  
247 0.2% 97%  
248 0% 97%  
249 0.1% 97%  
250 0.1% 97%  
251 1.0% 97%  
252 0.2% 96%  
253 2% 96%  
254 0% 93%  
255 0.2% 93%  
256 0% 93%  
257 2% 93%  
258 2% 92%  
259 0.1% 90%  
260 0% 90%  
261 1.5% 90%  
262 0.6% 88%  
263 0.1% 88%  
264 0.4% 88%  
265 6% 87%  
266 0.3% 82%  
267 0.1% 81%  
268 0.9% 81%  
269 0.2% 80%  
270 1.0% 80%  
271 2% 79%  
272 0% 77%  
273 0.7% 77%  
274 2% 76%  
275 0% 74%  
276 0.9% 74%  
277 0.7% 74%  
278 0.2% 73%  
279 24% 73%  
280 0.1% 48%  
281 7% 48%  
282 0.2% 41% Median
283 7% 41%  
284 0.5% 34%  
285 0.4% 33%  
286 8% 33%  
287 0.8% 24%  
288 2% 24%  
289 0.6% 22%  
290 0% 21%  
291 0.1% 21%  
292 0.3% 21%  
293 2% 21%  
294 13% 19%  
295 0.1% 7%  
296 0% 6%  
297 3% 6%  
298 0.1% 3%  
299 0.3% 3%  
300 0.4% 3%  
301 0% 3%  
302 0.2% 3%  
303 0% 2%  
304 0% 2%  
305 0.1% 2%  
306 0.2% 2%  
307 0.2% 2%  
308 0.4% 2%  
309 0.1% 1.5%  
310 0% 1.4%  
311 0% 1.4%  
312 0.1% 1.4%  
313 0.5% 1.2% Last Result
314 0% 0.7%  
315 0.2% 0.7%  
316 0% 0.5%  
317 0% 0.5%  
318 0.1% 0.5%  
319 0% 0.3%  
320 0% 0.3%  
321 0.1% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0.1% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0.2% 99.8%  
233 0% 99.6%  
234 0% 99.6%  
235 0.1% 99.6%  
236 2% 99.6%  
237 0% 98%  
238 0.4% 98%  
239 0% 97%  
240 0.2% 97%  
241 1.0% 97%  
242 0.1% 96%  
243 2% 96%  
244 0.1% 94%  
245 0.1% 94%  
246 0% 93%  
247 0.8% 93%  
248 0.5% 93%  
249 0.1% 92%  
250 1.0% 92%  
251 2% 91%  
252 0.6% 89%  
253 0.3% 88%  
254 0.5% 88%  
255 0% 88%  
256 5% 88%  
257 1.2% 83%  
258 0.1% 81%  
259 0.1% 81%  
260 0.6% 81%  
261 1.1% 81%  
262 0.9% 80%  
263 2% 79%  
264 0.1% 77%  
265 0.2% 77%  
266 0.1% 76%  
267 1.5% 76%  
268 0.6% 75%  
269 0% 74%  
270 2% 74%  
271 0% 72%  
272 0.3% 72%  
273 7% 72%  
274 0.2% 65%  
275 24% 65% Median
276 7% 40%  
277 0.2% 33%  
278 7% 33%  
279 0.4% 25%  
280 0.2% 25%  
281 0.8% 25%  
282 0.9% 24%  
283 0.6% 23%  
284 2% 22%  
285 1.2% 21%  
286 1.4% 20%  
287 13% 18%  
288 2% 6%  
289 0.1% 3%  
290 0% 3%  
291 0.4% 3%  
292 0% 3%  
293 0% 3%  
294 0% 3%  
295 0.2% 3%  
296 0.3% 3%  
297 0% 2%  
298 0.1% 2%  
299 0.3% 2%  
300 0.3% 2%  
301 0.1% 2%  
302 0% 2%  
303 0.4% 2%  
304 0% 1.2%  
305 0.5% 1.2%  
306 0% 0.7%  
307 0.1% 0.7%  
308 0.1% 0.6%  
309 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
310 0% 0.4%  
311 0% 0.4%  
312 0.1% 0.4%  
313 0% 0.3%  
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0.1% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
183 0% 100%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0.1% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.8%  
189 0% 99.8%  
190 0% 99.8%  
191 0% 99.8%  
192 0% 99.7%  
193 0.1% 99.7%  
194 2% 99.6%  
195 0.2% 98%  
196 0.5% 97%  
197 0% 97%  
198 0.1% 97%  
199 0.1% 97%  
200 0.1% 97%  
201 0.1% 97%  
202 0.1% 96%  
203 2% 96%  
204 0.4% 94%  
205 0.1% 94%  
206 1.0% 93%  
207 1.2% 92%  
208 0.1% 91%  
209 1.4% 91%  
210 0.1% 90%  
211 0.1% 90%  
212 2% 89%  
213 0.9% 88%  
214 0.8% 87%  
215 0.2% 86%  
216 5% 86%  
217 2% 81%  
218 0.1% 79%  
219 2% 79%  
220 2% 78%  
221 0.1% 76%  
222 0.8% 76%  
223 0% 75%  
224 0.4% 75%  
225 0.1% 74%  
226 0.1% 74%  
227 24% 74%  
228 2% 50%  
229 0.2% 48%  
230 0.1% 48% Median
231 8% 48%  
232 0.2% 40%  
233 7% 40%  
234 0.1% 33%  
235 0.8% 33%  
236 2% 32%  
237 0.7% 30%  
238 8% 30%  
239 0.4% 22%  
240 0.2% 22%  
241 0.4% 21%  
242 1.3% 21%  
243 0.1% 20%  
244 0% 20%  
245 16% 20%  
246 0% 4%  
247 0.5% 4%  
248 0% 3%  
249 0.4% 3%  
250 0.2% 3%  
251 0.1% 3%  
252 0% 2%  
253 0% 2%  
254 0.3% 2%  
255 0% 2%  
256 0.2% 2%  
257 0.2% 2%  
258 0.2% 2%  
259 0% 1.3%  
260 0.1% 1.3%  
261 0.5% 1.2%  
262 0.1% 0.8%  
263 0% 0.6%  
264 0.1% 0.6%  
265 0% 0.5%  
266 0% 0.5%  
267 0.1% 0.5%  
268 0% 0.4%  
269 0% 0.3%  
270 0.1% 0.3%  
271 0% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.2%  
274 0% 0.2%  
275 0% 0.2%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1% Last Result
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0.1% 0.1%  
282 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.8%  
180 0% 99.8%  
181 0.1% 99.8%  
182 0% 99.8%  
183 0% 99.7%  
184 2% 99.7%  
185 0.1% 98%  
186 0.1% 98%  
187 0% 97%  
188 0.6% 97%  
189 0% 97%  
190 0.1% 97%  
191 0.1% 97%  
192 0% 97%  
193 2% 97%  
194 0.3% 95%  
195 0.1% 94%  
196 1.0% 94%  
197 0.7% 93%  
198 0% 92%  
199 1.3% 92%  
200 1.1% 91%  
201 0.1% 90%  
202 0.9% 90%  
203 0.5% 89%  
204 1.0% 88%  
205 0% 87%  
206 0.5% 87%  
207 6% 87%  
208 0.8% 81%  
209 0.1% 80%  
210 0.8% 80%  
211 2% 79%  
212 0.3% 77%  
213 0.2% 77%  
214 0.2% 77%  
215 0.1% 76%  
216 2% 76%  
217 0% 74%  
218 0.8% 74%  
219 1.2% 73%  
220 0.4% 72%  
221 0.2% 72%  
222 0.3% 72%  
223 24% 71% Median
224 7% 47%  
225 7% 40%  
226 0.1% 33%  
227 0.2% 33%  
228 0.4% 32%  
229 0.2% 32%  
230 8% 32%  
231 0.6% 24%  
232 2% 24%  
233 2% 22%  
234 0.1% 20%  
235 1.4% 20%  
236 2% 19%  
237 0.5% 17%  
238 13% 16%  
239 0.5% 4%  
240 0% 3%  
241 0.1% 3%  
242 0.1% 3%  
243 0.1% 3%  
244 0.1% 3%  
245 0.6% 3%  
246 0% 2%  
247 0.2% 2%  
248 0% 2%  
249 0% 2%  
250 0% 2%  
251 0.4% 2%  
252 0.4% 2%  
253 0.5% 1.1%  
254 0% 0.6%  
255 0% 0.6%  
256 0% 0.6%  
257 0.1% 0.6%  
258 0.1% 0.5%  
259 0% 0.4%  
260 0% 0.4%  
261 0.1% 0.4%  
262 0% 0.3%  
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.2%  
266 0% 0.2%  
267 0% 0.2%  
268 0% 0.2%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1% Last Result
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0.1% 0.1%  
278 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.8%  
180 0% 99.8%  
181 0.1% 99.8%  
182 0% 99.8%  
183 0% 99.7%  
184 2% 99.7%  
185 0.1% 98%  
186 0.1% 98%  
187 0% 97%  
188 0.6% 97%  
189 0% 97%  
190 0.1% 97%  
191 0.1% 97%  
192 0% 97%  
193 2% 97%  
194 0.3% 95%  
195 0.1% 94%  
196 1.0% 94%  
197 0.7% 93%  
198 0% 92%  
199 1.3% 92%  
200 1.1% 91%  
201 0.1% 90%  
202 0.9% 90%  
203 0.5% 89%  
204 1.0% 88%  
205 0% 87%  
206 0.5% 87%  
207 6% 87%  
208 0.8% 81%  
209 0.1% 80%  
210 0.8% 80%  
211 2% 79%  
212 0.3% 77%  
213 0.2% 77%  
214 0.2% 77%  
215 0.1% 76%  
216 2% 76%  
217 0% 74%  
218 0.8% 74%  
219 1.2% 73%  
220 0.4% 72%  
221 0.2% 72%  
222 0.3% 72%  
223 24% 71% Median
224 7% 47%  
225 7% 40%  
226 0.1% 33%  
227 0.2% 33%  
228 0.4% 32%  
229 0.2% 32%  
230 8% 32%  
231 0.6% 24%  
232 2% 24%  
233 2% 22%  
234 0.1% 20%  
235 1.4% 20%  
236 2% 19%  
237 0.5% 17%  
238 13% 16%  
239 0.5% 4%  
240 0% 3%  
241 0.1% 3%  
242 0.1% 3%  
243 0.1% 3%  
244 0.1% 3%  
245 0.6% 3%  
246 0% 2%  
247 0.2% 2%  
248 0% 2%  
249 0% 2%  
250 0% 2%  
251 0.4% 2%  
252 0.4% 2%  
253 0.5% 1.1%  
254 0% 0.6%  
255 0% 0.6%  
256 0% 0.6%  
257 0.1% 0.6%  
258 0.1% 0.5%  
259 0% 0.4%  
260 0% 0.4%  
261 0.1% 0.4%  
262 0% 0.3%  
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.2%  
266 0% 0.2%  
267 0% 0.2%  
268 0% 0.2%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1% Last Result
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0.1% 0.1%  
278 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
165 0% 100%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.2% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.7%  
169 0% 99.7%  
170 0% 99.6%  
171 2% 99.6%  
172 0% 98%  
173 0% 98%  
174 0.1% 98%  
175 1.4% 97%  
176 0.1% 96%  
177 2% 96%  
178 0% 94%  
179 0.3% 94%  
180 0.2% 94%  
181 0.2% 93%  
182 0.6% 93%  
183 2% 93%  
184 0.1% 90%  
185 0.4% 90%  
186 5% 90%  
187 0.3% 85%  
188 0.4% 85%  
189 1.1% 84%  
190 0.2% 83%  
191 1.1% 83%  
192 0.4% 82%  
193 2% 82%  
194 0.2% 80%  
195 0.2% 80%  
196 0.7% 80%  
197 0.2% 79%  
198 1.0% 79%  
199 0.1% 78%  
200 0.2% 78%  
201 7% 77%  
202 0.7% 70%  
203 2% 69%  
204 32% 68%  
205 0.1% 36%  
206 0.5% 35%  
207 0.7% 35% Median
208 0.9% 34%  
209 2% 33%  
210 0.5% 32%  
211 0.3% 31%  
212 2% 31%  
213 0.1% 29%  
214 0.6% 29%  
215 8% 28%  
216 0.5% 20%  
217 2% 19%  
218 0.1% 17%  
219 0.2% 17%  
220 0% 17%  
221 14% 17%  
222 0.5% 3%  
223 0.1% 3%  
224 0.1% 3%  
225 0% 2%  
226 0% 2%  
227 0% 2%  
228 0.6% 2%  
229 0.2% 2%  
230 0% 2%  
231 0.3% 2%  
232 0.2% 1.3%  
233 0% 1.1%  
234 0% 1.1%  
235 0% 1.1%  
236 0.2% 1.1%  
237 0.3% 0.8%  
238 0% 0.5%  
239 0% 0.5%  
240 0% 0.4%  
241 0.1% 0.4%  
242 0% 0.3%  
243 0% 0.3%  
244 0.1% 0.3%  
245 0% 0.3%  
246 0% 0.2%  
247 0% 0.2%  
248 0% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.2%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0.1% 0.1%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0.1% 100%  
157 0% 99.8%  
158 0% 99.8%  
159 0% 99.8%  
160 0.1% 99.8%  
161 2% 99.7%  
162 0% 98%  
163 0% 98%  
164 0% 98%  
165 1.0% 98%  
166 0.1% 97%  
167 3% 96%  
168 0% 94%  
169 0.2% 94%  
170 0% 94%  
171 0% 94%  
172 0.9% 94%  
173 1.4% 93%  
174 0.1% 91%  
175 0.1% 91%  
176 1.1% 91%  
177 5% 90%  
178 0.1% 85%  
179 0.1% 85%  
180 0.8% 85%  
181 2% 84%  
182 0.3% 83%  
183 0.1% 82%  
184 0.2% 82%  
185 2% 82%  
186 0.3% 80%  
187 0.3% 80%  
188 0% 79%  
189 0.8% 79%  
190 0.2% 79%  
191 1.5% 78%  
192 0.1% 77%  
193 8% 77%  
194 0.7% 69%  
195 0.4% 69%  
196 0% 68%  
197 7% 68%  
198 0% 61%  
199 3% 61%  
200 24% 58% Median
201 0.4% 34%  
202 0.3% 33%  
203 1.0% 33%  
204 0.2% 32%  
205 3% 32%  
206 0.1% 29%  
207 8% 29%  
208 2% 20%  
209 1.2% 18%  
210 0.3% 17%  
211 0.3% 17%  
212 0.5% 16%  
213 0.5% 16%  
214 12% 15%  
215 0.2% 3%  
216 0.1% 3%  
217 0.1% 3%  
218 0% 3%  
219 0% 3%  
220 0.6% 3%  
221 0% 2%  
222 0.2% 2%  
223 0.1% 2%  
224 0.2% 2%  
225 0.3% 1.4%  
226 0.1% 1.1%  
227 0% 1.0%  
228 0.3% 0.9%  
229 0.1% 0.7%  
230 0% 0.5%  
231 0% 0.5%  
232 0.1% 0.5%  
233 0% 0.3%  
234 0% 0.3%  
235 0% 0.3%  
236 0.1% 0.3%  
237 0% 0.3%  
238 0% 0.3%  
239 0% 0.2%  
240 0% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.2%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0.1% 0.1%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0% 100%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.8%  
117 0% 99.8%  
118 0% 99.8%  
119 2% 99.8%  
120 0.2% 98%  
121 0% 98%  
122 0% 98%  
123 0% 98%  
124 0% 98%  
125 0.5% 97%  
126 0.3% 97%  
127 2% 97%  
128 0% 94%  
129 0.1% 94%  
130 1.0% 94%  
131 1.3% 93%  
132 0.1% 92%  
133 1.5% 92%  
134 0.1% 90%  
135 0% 90%  
136 1.1% 90%  
137 6% 89%  
138 0.6% 84%  
139 0.4% 83%  
140 0.1% 83%  
141 2% 83%  
142 0.3% 81%  
143 0.9% 81%  
144 1.0% 80%  
145 0.2% 79%  
146 1.1% 79%  
147 0.4% 78%  
148 0.1% 77%  
149 2% 77%  
150 0.6% 75%  
151 0.7% 75%  
152 31% 74%  
153 7% 43%  
154 0.1% 36%  
155 0.6% 36% Median
156 0.3% 35%  
157 2% 35%  
158 0.9% 33%  
159 0.1% 32%  
160 2% 32%  
161 2% 30%  
162 0% 28%  
163 0.3% 28%  
164 0% 28%  
165 2% 28%  
166 0.1% 25%  
167 8% 25%  
168 0.4% 18%  
169 1.4% 17%  
170 0.2% 16%  
171 0.1% 15%  
172 12% 15%  
173 0.5% 3%  
174 0.1% 3%  
175 0.2% 2%  
176 0.4% 2%  
177 0.2% 2%  
178 0% 2%  
179 0% 2%  
180 0.1% 2%  
181 0.1% 1.5%  
182 0.2% 1.3%  
183 0.3% 1.1%  
184 0.1% 0.8%  
185 0.3% 0.8%  
186 0% 0.5%  
187 0% 0.5%  
188 0% 0.5%  
189 0% 0.5%  
190 0.2% 0.4%  
191 0% 0.3%  
192 0% 0.3%  
193 0% 0.3%  
194 0% 0.3%  
195 0% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0.1% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 2% 99.8%  
110 0% 98%  
111 0% 98%  
112 0.1% 98%  
113 0% 98%  
114 0% 97%  
115 0% 97%  
116 0.1% 97%  
117 3% 97%  
118 0.1% 95%  
119 0.2% 95%  
120 1.0% 95%  
121 1.3% 94%  
122 0.2% 92%  
123 0.1% 92%  
124 0% 92%  
125 0% 92%  
126 1.1% 92%  
127 1.0% 91%  
128 6% 90%  
129 0.1% 84%  
130 0.1% 84%  
131 0.5% 84%  
132 0.1% 83%  
133 1.5% 83%  
134 0.6% 82%  
135 1.4% 81%  
136 0.8% 80%  
137 0.9% 79%  
138 0.1% 78%  
139 0.7% 78%  
140 0.7% 77%  
141 0.2% 76%  
142 0% 76%  
143 0.4% 76%  
144 0.1% 76%  
145 17% 76%  
146 0% 59%  
147 0.5% 59%  
148 24% 59% Median
149 0.1% 34%  
150 0.3% 34%  
151 1.0% 34%  
152 0.1% 33%  
153 2% 33%  
154 2% 31%  
155 0% 29%  
156 2% 29%  
157 1.4% 26%  
158 0.2% 25%  
159 8% 25%  
160 0.1% 17%  
161 0.5% 16%  
162 0% 16%  
163 0.2% 16%  
164 0.1% 16%  
165 13% 16%  
166 0% 3%  
167 0.2% 3%  
168 0.6% 2%  
169 0.1% 2%  
170 0% 2%  
171 0.1% 2%  
172 0.1% 2%  
173 0.3% 2%  
174 0.3% 1.3%  
175 0.1% 1.0%  
176 0.2% 0.9%  
177 0.1% 0.7%  
178 0.1% 0.6%  
179 0% 0.5%  
180 0% 0.5%  
181 0.1% 0.5%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0% 0.3%  
184 0% 0.3%  
185 0% 0.3%  
186 0% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0.1% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 2% 99.8%  
110 0% 98%  
111 0% 98%  
112 0.1% 98%  
113 0% 98%  
114 0% 97%  
115 0% 97%  
116 0.1% 97%  
117 3% 97%  
118 0.1% 95%  
119 0.2% 95%  
120 1.0% 95%  
121 1.3% 94%  
122 0.2% 92%  
123 0.1% 92%  
124 0% 92%  
125 0% 92%  
126 1.1% 92%  
127 1.0% 91%  
128 6% 90%  
129 0.1% 84%  
130 0.1% 84%  
131 0.5% 84%  
132 0.1% 83%  
133 1.5% 83%  
134 0.6% 82%  
135 1.4% 81%  
136 0.8% 80%  
137 0.9% 79%  
138 0.1% 78%  
139 0.7% 78%  
140 0.7% 77%  
141 0.2% 76%  
142 0% 76%  
143 0.4% 76%  
144 0.1% 76%  
145 17% 76%  
146 0% 59%  
147 0.5% 59%  
148 24% 59% Median
149 0.1% 34%  
150 0.3% 34%  
151 1.0% 34%  
152 0.1% 33%  
153 2% 33%  
154 2% 31%  
155 0% 29%  
156 2% 29%  
157 1.4% 26%  
158 0.2% 25%  
159 8% 25%  
160 0.1% 17%  
161 0.5% 16%  
162 0% 16%  
163 0.2% 16%  
164 0.1% 16%  
165 13% 16%  
166 0% 3%  
167 0.2% 3%  
168 0.6% 2%  
169 0.1% 2%  
170 0% 2%  
171 0.1% 2%  
172 0.1% 2%  
173 0.3% 2%  
174 0.3% 1.3%  
175 0.1% 1.0%  
176 0.2% 0.9%  
177 0.1% 0.7%  
178 0.1% 0.6%  
179 0% 0.5%  
180 0% 0.5%  
181 0.1% 0.5%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0% 0.3%  
184 0% 0.3%  
185 0% 0.3%  
186 0% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0.1% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations