Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 2–3 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 34.8% 33.3–36.4% 32.9–36.8% 32.6–37.2% 31.9–37.9%
Labour Party 40.0% 24.9% 23.5–26.3% 23.2–26.7% 22.8–27.1% 22.2–27.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 15.9% 14.8–17.1% 14.5–17.5% 14.2–17.8% 13.7–18.4%
Brexit Party 0.0% 10.9% 10.0–12.0% 9.7–12.3% 9.5–12.5% 9.1–13.0%
Green Party 1.6% 7.0% 6.2–7.8% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.3% 5.5–8.7%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.4%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 325 301–347 301–348 301–361 291–366
Labour Party 262 175 154–201 150–201 142–201 134–211
Liberal Democrats 12 48 46–57 46–59 44–60 41–60
Brexit Party 0 13 9–21 9–28 9–33 8–36
Green Party 1 4 4 4–5 4–5 4–6
Scottish National Party 35 51 49–53 48–54 46–54 45–54
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–10 4–11 4–11 3–14
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0.1% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0.3% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.5%  
293 0.1% 99.4%  
294 0% 99.3%  
295 0% 99.3%  
296 0% 99.3%  
297 0.1% 99.3%  
298 0% 99.2%  
299 0% 99.1%  
300 0.1% 99.1%  
301 23% 99.1%  
302 0.1% 76%  
303 0% 76%  
304 0% 75%  
305 0% 75%  
306 0% 75%  
307 0.6% 75%  
308 0.2% 75%  
309 0.2% 75%  
310 0.8% 74%  
311 0.1% 74%  
312 0.6% 74%  
313 0.9% 73%  
314 0.2% 72%  
315 0.4% 72%  
316 0.1% 71%  
317 0.1% 71% Last Result
318 3% 71%  
319 0.1% 68%  
320 0.1% 68%  
321 2% 68%  
322 0.7% 66%  
323 15% 65%  
324 0.2% 50%  
325 2% 50% Median
326 0.1% 48% Majority
327 0% 48%  
328 0% 48%  
329 6% 48%  
330 0.1% 42%  
331 4% 41%  
332 0.1% 37%  
333 0.2% 37%  
334 0% 37%  
335 3% 37%  
336 0.7% 34%  
337 0.5% 33%  
338 18% 33%  
339 1.0% 15%  
340 0.2% 14%  
341 0.3% 14%  
342 0.2% 13%  
343 0.6% 13%  
344 2% 13%  
345 0% 11%  
346 0% 11%  
347 5% 11%  
348 1.1% 5%  
349 0.1% 4%  
350 0.1% 4%  
351 0% 4%  
352 0.2% 4%  
353 0.7% 4%  
354 0% 3%  
355 0.1% 3%  
356 0% 3%  
357 0% 3%  
358 0.1% 3%  
359 0% 3%  
360 0% 3%  
361 2% 3%  
362 0% 0.6%  
363 0% 0.6%  
364 0% 0.6%  
365 0% 0.5%  
366 0.5% 0.5%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0.5% 100%  
132 0% 99.5%  
133 0% 99.5%  
134 0% 99.5%  
135 0% 99.5%  
136 0% 99.5%  
137 0% 99.5%  
138 0% 99.5%  
139 0% 99.4%  
140 0% 99.4%  
141 0% 99.4%  
142 2% 99.4%  
143 0.1% 97%  
144 0.1% 97%  
145 0% 97%  
146 0% 97%  
147 0.2% 97%  
148 0% 97%  
149 0% 97%  
150 4% 97%  
151 0.2% 92%  
152 0.8% 92%  
153 0.4% 91%  
154 2% 91%  
155 0% 89%  
156 0.1% 89%  
157 0% 89%  
158 0.2% 89%  
159 0.2% 89%  
160 1.3% 88%  
161 0% 87%  
162 0.6% 87%  
163 0.7% 87%  
164 1.1% 86%  
165 0.9% 85%  
166 0.1% 84%  
167 6% 84%  
168 5% 78%  
169 0.5% 73%  
170 19% 72%  
171 0.2% 53%  
172 2% 53%  
173 0.6% 51%  
174 0.1% 50%  
175 3% 50% Median
176 0% 47%  
177 1.3% 47%  
178 3% 46%  
179 0.8% 43%  
180 0% 42%  
181 0.2% 42%  
182 0.2% 42%  
183 0.1% 42%  
184 0.6% 42%  
185 0% 41%  
186 0.6% 41%  
187 0.1% 41%  
188 0.5% 40%  
189 0% 40%  
190 0.1% 40%  
191 0.1% 40%  
192 0.8% 40%  
193 0.1% 39%  
194 0% 39%  
195 14% 39%  
196 0% 25%  
197 0.6% 25%  
198 0% 24%  
199 0.1% 24%  
200 0% 24%  
201 23% 24%  
202 0.1% 1.0%  
203 0% 0.9%  
204 0.1% 0.9%  
205 0.1% 0.8%  
206 0% 0.8%  
207 0% 0.7%  
208 0.1% 0.7%  
209 0% 0.7%  
210 0% 0.6%  
211 0.3% 0.6%  
212 0.1% 0.3%  
213 0% 0.2%  
214 0.1% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0% 99.8%  
40 0% 99.8%  
41 0.8% 99.8%  
42 0.1% 99.0%  
43 0.2% 98.9%  
44 2% 98.7%  
45 0.5% 97%  
46 17% 96%  
47 4% 79%  
48 28% 75% Median
49 0.8% 47%  
50 0.2% 46%  
51 0.1% 46%  
52 0.1% 46%  
53 6% 46%  
54 3% 40%  
55 23% 37%  
56 2% 14%  
57 3% 11%  
58 0.5% 9%  
59 4% 8%  
60 4% 4%  
61 0.1% 0.4%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0.1% 99.9%  
7 0.1% 99.8%  
8 0.2% 99.7%  
9 15% 99.5%  
10 0.7% 84%  
11 2% 83%  
12 7% 82%  
13 26% 75% Median
14 0.2% 49%  
15 5% 49%  
16 2% 43%  
17 18% 41%  
18 0.9% 23%  
19 6% 22%  
20 4% 15%  
21 5% 12%  
22 0.1% 7%  
23 0.5% 6%  
24 0.1% 6%  
25 0.1% 6%  
26 0.3% 6%  
27 0.1% 5%  
28 0.6% 5%  
29 0.1% 5%  
30 0.1% 5%  
31 0% 4%  
32 0% 4%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0% 1.0%  
35 0% 1.0%  
36 0.5% 1.0%  
37 0% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.5%  
39 0% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.2%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.2% 99.9%  
4 93% 99.7% Median
5 5% 6%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0% 99.8%  
41 0% 99.8%  
42 0.1% 99.8%  
43 0% 99.7%  
44 0.2% 99.7%  
45 0.9% 99.5%  
46 1.4% 98.6%  
47 2% 97%  
48 4% 95%  
49 2% 91%  
50 5% 88%  
51 37% 83% Median
52 0.5% 46%  
53 36% 46%  
54 10% 10%  
55 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 39% 98% Last Result
5 26% 59% Median
6 2% 33%  
7 6% 30%  
8 9% 24%  
9 2% 15%  
10 5% 13%  
11 6% 8%  
12 0.7% 2%  
13 0.1% 1.1%  
14 1.0% 1.0%  
15 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 380 100% 359–403 359–409 359–418 348–428
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 376 100% 354–395 354–401 354–411 344–418
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 379 100% 356–393 356–400 356–409 351–410
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 379 100% 356–393 356–400 356–409 351–410
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 329 68% 306–354 306–356 306–368 297–378
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 325 48% 301–347 301–348 301–361 291–366
Conservative Party 317 325 48% 301–347 301–348 301–361 291–366
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 285 0.4% 264–314 260–314 247–314 239–325
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 278 0% 255–309 252–309 240–309 227–319
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 236 0% 213–261 206–261 197–261 187–274
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 232 0% 212–259 212–259 199–259 195–268
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 226 0% 207–256 198–256 190–256 179–266
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 226 0% 207–256 198–256 190–256 179–266
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 228 0% 207–254 204–254 192–254 183–264
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 179 0% 159–206 158–206 149–206 143–215
Labour Party – Change UK 262 175 0% 154–201 150–201 142–201 134–211
Labour Party 262 175 0% 154–201 150–201 142–201 134–211

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
340 0% 100%  
341 0.1% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.8%  
348 0.3% 99.8%  
349 0% 99.4%  
350 0% 99.4%  
351 0.1% 99.4%  
352 0.1% 99.4%  
353 0% 99.3%  
354 0.1% 99.2%  
355 0% 99.2%  
356 0.1% 99.2% Last Result
357 0% 99.1%  
358 0% 99.1%  
359 23% 99.1%  
360 0.1% 76%  
361 0.1% 76%  
362 0% 75%  
363 0% 75%  
364 0.1% 75%  
365 0% 75%  
366 0.9% 75%  
367 0% 74%  
368 0.6% 74%  
369 0% 74%  
370 0.1% 74%  
371 0.2% 74%  
372 1.2% 74%  
373 0.8% 72%  
374 2% 72%  
375 0.6% 70%  
376 0.1% 69%  
377 0% 69%  
378 17% 69%  
379 0.4% 52%  
380 2% 52%  
381 0.4% 50% Median
382 0.2% 49%  
383 0.1% 49%  
384 0.1% 49%  
385 1.4% 49%  
386 0.5% 47%  
387 6% 47%  
388 0.1% 41%  
389 0% 41%  
390 0.1% 41%  
391 0.2% 41%  
392 2% 41%  
393 18% 38%  
394 0.1% 20%  
395 4% 20%  
396 1.0% 16%  
397 0% 15%  
398 1.5% 15%  
399 2% 14%  
400 0% 12%  
401 0% 12%  
402 2% 12%  
403 0.7% 10%  
404 0.1% 10%  
405 0.1% 10%  
406 0.9% 9%  
407 0.1% 8%  
408 0.1% 8%  
409 4% 8%  
410 0.7% 4%  
411 0% 3%  
412 0% 3%  
413 0% 3%  
414 0.2% 3%  
415 0% 3%  
416 0% 3%  
417 0% 3%  
418 2% 3%  
419 0% 0.6%  
420 0% 0.6%  
421 0% 0.6%  
422 0% 0.5%  
423 0% 0.5%  
424 0% 0.5%  
425 0% 0.5%  
426 0% 0.5%  
427 0% 0.5%  
428 0% 0.5%  
429 0% 0.5%  
430 0.5% 0.5%  
431 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
334 0.1% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0% 99.8%  
343 0% 99.7%  
344 0.3% 99.7%  
345 0% 99.4%  
346 0.1% 99.4%  
347 0% 99.3%  
348 0.1% 99.3%  
349 0% 99.1%  
350 0% 99.1%  
351 0.1% 99.1%  
352 0% 99.1% Last Result
353 0.1% 99.1%  
354 23% 99.0%  
355 0.9% 76%  
356 0.1% 75%  
357 0.1% 75%  
358 0% 75%  
359 0% 75%  
360 0.6% 75%  
361 0.1% 74%  
362 0.3% 74%  
363 0.6% 74%  
364 0.6% 73%  
365 0.6% 72%  
366 0% 72%  
367 0.2% 72%  
368 2% 72%  
369 0.4% 70%  
370 0.2% 70%  
371 4% 69%  
372 0.1% 66%  
373 0.2% 66%  
374 14% 65%  
375 0.1% 51%  
376 2% 51% Median
377 6% 49%  
378 0% 43%  
379 0% 43%  
380 0% 43%  
381 0.2% 43%  
382 2% 43%  
383 0% 41%  
384 4% 41%  
385 0.1% 37%  
386 0.1% 37%  
387 0.2% 37%  
388 2% 36%  
389 20% 34%  
390 0.4% 14%  
391 0.6% 14%  
392 0.8% 13%  
393 0% 12%  
394 2% 12%  
395 0.2% 10%  
396 0.1% 10%  
397 0.9% 10%  
398 0.3% 9%  
399 0% 9%  
400 0.2% 8%  
401 4% 8%  
402 0% 4%  
403 0.2% 4%  
404 0.7% 4%  
405 0% 3%  
406 0.1% 3%  
407 0% 3%  
408 0% 3%  
409 0% 3%  
410 0% 3%  
411 2% 3%  
412 0% 0.6%  
413 0% 0.6%  
414 0% 0.5%  
415 0% 0.5%  
416 0% 0.5%  
417 0% 0.5%  
418 0.5% 0.5%  
419 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0.1% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0% 99.8%  
343 0% 99.8%  
344 0% 99.8%  
345 0% 99.8%  
346 0% 99.8%  
347 0% 99.8%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 0% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.7%  
351 0.4% 99.6%  
352 0% 99.2%  
353 0.8% 99.2%  
354 0% 98%  
355 0.1% 98%  
356 23% 98%  
357 0% 75%  
358 0% 75%  
359 0.1% 75%  
360 1.2% 75%  
361 0% 74%  
362 0.3% 74%  
363 0% 73%  
364 1.2% 73%  
365 0.1% 72%  
366 0% 72%  
367 0.4% 72%  
368 0.2% 72%  
369 15% 72%  
370 1.3% 57%  
371 0.1% 55%  
372 0.1% 55%  
373 0.2% 55% Median
374 2% 55%  
375 0.1% 53%  
376 0.1% 53%  
377 0.1% 53%  
378 3% 53%  
379 0.1% 50%  
380 0% 50%  
381 0.1% 50%  
382 3% 50%  
383 4% 46%  
384 4% 42%  
385 2% 38%  
386 18% 36%  
387 0.1% 18%  
388 6% 18%  
389 0.3% 12%  
390 0.7% 12%  
391 0.1% 11%  
392 0.1% 11%  
393 1.3% 11%  
394 0% 10%  
395 4% 10%  
396 0% 5%  
397 0% 5%  
398 0.2% 5%  
399 0.1% 5%  
400 0.3% 5%  
401 0.7% 5%  
402 0% 4%  
403 0% 4%  
404 1.0% 4%  
405 0% 3%  
406 0.1% 3%  
407 0% 3%  
408 0% 3%  
409 2% 3%  
410 0.5% 0.6%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0.1% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0% 99.8%  
343 0% 99.8%  
344 0% 99.8%  
345 0% 99.8%  
346 0% 99.8%  
347 0% 99.8%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 0% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.7%  
351 0.4% 99.6%  
352 0% 99.2%  
353 0.8% 99.2%  
354 0% 98%  
355 0.1% 98%  
356 23% 98%  
357 0% 75%  
358 0% 75%  
359 0.1% 75%  
360 1.2% 75%  
361 0% 74%  
362 0.3% 74%  
363 0% 73%  
364 1.2% 73%  
365 0.1% 72%  
366 0% 72%  
367 0.4% 72%  
368 0.2% 72%  
369 15% 72%  
370 1.3% 57%  
371 0.1% 55%  
372 0.1% 55%  
373 0.2% 55% Median
374 2% 55%  
375 0.1% 53%  
376 0.1% 53%  
377 0.1% 53%  
378 3% 53%  
379 0.1% 50%  
380 0% 50%  
381 0.1% 50%  
382 3% 50%  
383 4% 46%  
384 4% 42%  
385 2% 38%  
386 18% 36%  
387 0.1% 18%  
388 6% 18%  
389 0.3% 12%  
390 0.7% 12%  
391 0.1% 11%  
392 0.1% 11%  
393 1.3% 11%  
394 0% 10%  
395 4% 10%  
396 0% 5%  
397 0% 5%  
398 0.2% 5%  
399 0.1% 5%  
400 0.3% 5%  
401 0.7% 5%  
402 0% 4%  
403 0% 4%  
404 1.0% 4%  
405 0% 3%  
406 0.1% 3%  
407 0% 3%  
408 0% 3%  
409 2% 3%  
410 0.5% 0.6%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0.1% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.3% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.5%  
297 0% 99.5%  
298 0% 99.5%  
299 0.1% 99.5%  
300 0.1% 99.4%  
301 0.1% 99.3%  
302 0% 99.2%  
303 0.1% 99.2%  
304 0% 99.1%  
305 0% 99.1%  
306 23% 99.1%  
307 0.1% 76%  
308 0% 76%  
309 0.1% 76%  
310 0.1% 76%  
311 0% 75%  
312 0.1% 75%  
313 0.1% 75%  
314 0.1% 75%  
315 0.5% 75%  
316 0% 75%  
317 0% 75%  
318 0.3% 75%  
319 0.2% 74%  
320 0.6% 74%  
321 1.1% 73% Last Result
322 0.8% 72%  
323 0% 72%  
324 0.1% 72%  
325 3% 71%  
326 0.7% 68% Majority
327 15% 67%  
328 0.2% 52%  
329 2% 52%  
330 0.1% 49% Median
331 2% 49%  
332 0% 48%  
333 0% 48%  
334 2% 48%  
335 0.5% 46%  
336 0% 45%  
337 0.1% 45%  
338 2% 45%  
339 4% 43%  
340 0.7% 39%  
341 0.1% 38%  
342 21% 38%  
343 0.1% 17%  
344 0% 17%  
345 0.1% 17%  
346 0.1% 16%  
347 1.2% 16%  
348 2% 15%  
349 1.1% 13%  
350 0.1% 12%  
351 0.1% 12%  
352 0.2% 12%  
353 1.4% 12%  
354 0.6% 10%  
355 4% 10%  
356 0.9% 5%  
357 0.1% 4%  
358 0.2% 4%  
359 0.7% 4%  
360 0% 3%  
361 0% 3%  
362 0.1% 3%  
363 0.2% 3%  
364 0% 3%  
365 0% 3%  
366 0% 3%  
367 0% 3%  
368 2% 3%  
369 0% 0.6%  
370 0% 0.6%  
371 0% 0.6%  
372 0% 0.6%  
373 0% 0.6%  
374 0% 0.5%  
375 0% 0.5%  
376 0% 0.5%  
377 0% 0.5%  
378 0.5% 0.5%  
379 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0.1% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0.3% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.5%  
293 0.1% 99.4%  
294 0% 99.3%  
295 0% 99.3%  
296 0% 99.3%  
297 0.1% 99.3%  
298 0% 99.2%  
299 0% 99.1%  
300 0.1% 99.1%  
301 23% 99.1%  
302 0.1% 76%  
303 0% 76%  
304 0% 75%  
305 0% 75%  
306 0% 75%  
307 0.6% 75%  
308 0.2% 75%  
309 0.2% 75%  
310 0.8% 74%  
311 0.1% 74%  
312 0.6% 74%  
313 0.9% 73%  
314 0.2% 72%  
315 0.4% 72%  
316 0.1% 71%  
317 0.1% 71% Last Result
318 3% 71%  
319 0.1% 68%  
320 0.1% 68%  
321 2% 68%  
322 0.7% 66%  
323 15% 65%  
324 0.2% 50%  
325 2% 50% Median
326 0.1% 48% Majority
327 0% 48%  
328 0% 48%  
329 6% 48%  
330 0.1% 42%  
331 4% 41%  
332 0.1% 37%  
333 0.2% 37%  
334 0% 37%  
335 3% 37%  
336 0.7% 34%  
337 0.5% 33%  
338 18% 33%  
339 1.0% 15%  
340 0.2% 14%  
341 0.3% 14%  
342 0.2% 13%  
343 0.6% 13%  
344 2% 13%  
345 0% 11%  
346 0% 11%  
347 5% 11%  
348 1.1% 5%  
349 0.1% 4%  
350 0.1% 4%  
351 0% 4%  
352 0.2% 4%  
353 0.7% 4%  
354 0% 3%  
355 0.1% 3%  
356 0% 3%  
357 0% 3%  
358 0.1% 3%  
359 0% 3%  
360 0% 3%  
361 2% 3%  
362 0% 0.6%  
363 0% 0.6%  
364 0% 0.6%  
365 0% 0.5%  
366 0.5% 0.5%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0.1% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0.3% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.5%  
293 0.1% 99.4%  
294 0% 99.3%  
295 0% 99.3%  
296 0% 99.3%  
297 0.1% 99.3%  
298 0% 99.2%  
299 0% 99.1%  
300 0.1% 99.1%  
301 23% 99.1%  
302 0.1% 76%  
303 0% 76%  
304 0% 75%  
305 0% 75%  
306 0% 75%  
307 0.6% 75%  
308 0.2% 75%  
309 0.2% 75%  
310 0.8% 74%  
311 0.1% 74%  
312 0.6% 74%  
313 0.9% 73%  
314 0.2% 72%  
315 0.4% 72%  
316 0.1% 71%  
317 0.1% 71% Last Result
318 3% 71%  
319 0.1% 68%  
320 0.1% 68%  
321 2% 68%  
322 0.7% 66%  
323 15% 65%  
324 0.2% 50%  
325 2% 50% Median
326 0.1% 48% Majority
327 0% 48%  
328 0% 48%  
329 6% 48%  
330 0.1% 42%  
331 4% 41%  
332 0.1% 37%  
333 0.2% 37%  
334 0% 37%  
335 3% 37%  
336 0.7% 34%  
337 0.5% 33%  
338 18% 33%  
339 1.0% 15%  
340 0.2% 14%  
341 0.3% 14%  
342 0.2% 13%  
343 0.6% 13%  
344 2% 13%  
345 0% 11%  
346 0% 11%  
347 5% 11%  
348 1.1% 5%  
349 0.1% 4%  
350 0.1% 4%  
351 0% 4%  
352 0.2% 4%  
353 0.7% 4%  
354 0% 3%  
355 0.1% 3%  
356 0% 3%  
357 0% 3%  
358 0.1% 3%  
359 0% 3%  
360 0% 3%  
361 2% 3%  
362 0% 0.6%  
363 0% 0.6%  
364 0% 0.6%  
365 0% 0.5%  
366 0.5% 0.5%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.5% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.5%  
241 0% 99.5%  
242 0% 99.4%  
243 0% 99.4%  
244 0% 99.4%  
245 0% 99.4%  
246 0% 99.4%  
247 2% 99.4%  
248 0% 97%  
249 0% 97%  
250 0.1% 97%  
251 0% 97%  
252 0% 97%  
253 0.1% 97%  
254 0.1% 97%  
255 0.2% 97%  
256 0% 96%  
257 0.7% 96%  
258 0.1% 96%  
259 0% 96%  
260 5% 96%  
261 0% 91%  
262 0.2% 91%  
263 0.5% 91%  
264 0.6% 90%  
265 0.2% 90%  
266 2% 90%  
267 0.3% 88%  
268 1.4% 87%  
269 0.1% 86%  
270 1.1% 86%  
271 2% 85%  
272 0% 83%  
273 19% 83%  
274 1.0% 64%  
275 0.4% 63%  
276 0.4% 62%  
277 0% 62%  
278 0.8% 62%  
279 0.4% 61% Median
280 2% 61%  
281 0.5% 59%  
282 0% 58%  
283 0% 58%  
284 7% 58%  
285 4% 51%  
286 1.4% 47%  
287 0.1% 46%  
288 0.2% 46%  
289 0.1% 46%  
290 0.1% 46%  
291 0.1% 45%  
292 0.4% 45%  
293 0.7% 45%  
294 0.7% 44%  
295 0% 44%  
296 14% 44%  
297 0% 30%  
298 3% 30%  
299 0.2% 26%  
300 0% 26%  
301 0% 26%  
302 0.8% 26%  
303 0.1% 26%  
304 0.1% 25%  
305 0% 25%  
306 0.7% 25%  
307 0.1% 25%  
308 0% 25%  
309 0.1% 24%  
310 0.1% 24%  
311 0% 24%  
312 0% 24%  
313 0% 24% Last Result
314 23% 24%  
315 0% 0.9%  
316 0.1% 0.9%  
317 0% 0.9%  
318 0.1% 0.9%  
319 0.1% 0.8%  
320 0.1% 0.7%  
321 0% 0.6%  
322 0% 0.6%  
323 0.1% 0.6%  
324 0% 0.5%  
325 0.1% 0.5%  
326 0% 0.4% Majority
327 0.1% 0.4%  
328 0.3% 0.4%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
227 0.5% 100%  
228 0% 99.5%  
229 0% 99.5%  
230 0% 99.5%  
231 0% 99.5%  
232 0% 99.5%  
233 0% 99.5%  
234 0% 99.5%  
235 0% 99.4%  
236 0% 99.4%  
237 0% 99.4%  
238 0% 99.4%  
239 0% 99.4%  
240 2% 99.3%  
241 0% 97%  
242 0% 97%  
243 0.1% 97%  
244 0.2% 97%  
245 0.1% 97%  
246 0% 97%  
247 0.1% 97%  
248 0% 96%  
249 0.1% 96%  
250 0% 96%  
251 0.7% 96%  
252 4% 96%  
253 0.8% 91%  
254 0.5% 91%  
255 0.1% 90%  
256 0.2% 90%  
257 0% 90%  
258 0.1% 90%  
259 0.2% 90%  
260 1.1% 89%  
261 3% 88%  
262 0.1% 86%  
263 1.3% 86%  
264 1.4% 84%  
265 0.1% 83%  
266 1.1% 83%  
267 2% 82%  
268 0.2% 80%  
269 18% 79%  
270 0.1% 62%  
271 0.4% 62%  
272 0.1% 61%  
273 0.1% 61%  
274 8% 61% Median
275 0% 53%  
276 0% 53%  
277 3% 53%  
278 1.3% 50%  
279 0.1% 49%  
280 3% 49%  
281 0.2% 46%  
282 0.3% 46%  
283 0.1% 45%  
284 0.3% 45%  
285 1.1% 45%  
286 0% 44%  
287 0% 44%  
288 0.2% 44%  
289 0.2% 44%  
290 0.1% 43%  
291 4% 43%  
292 14% 39%  
293 0% 26%  
294 0% 26%  
295 0.1% 26%  
296 0% 25%  
297 0% 25%  
298 0.6% 25%  
299 0.1% 25%  
300 0.2% 25%  
301 0% 25%  
302 0.1% 25%  
303 0.1% 24%  
304 0% 24%  
305 0.1% 24%  
306 0% 24%  
307 0% 24%  
308 0% 24%  
309 23% 24% Last Result
310 0% 0.9%  
311 0.1% 0.9%  
312 0.1% 0.8%  
313 0% 0.7%  
314 0% 0.7%  
315 0% 0.7%  
316 0% 0.6%  
317 0.1% 0.6%  
318 0% 0.5%  
319 0.1% 0.5%  
320 0% 0.5%  
321 0.1% 0.5%  
322 0% 0.4%  
323 0% 0.3%  
324 0.3% 0.3%  
325 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0% 100%  
187 0.5% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.5%  
189 0% 99.5%  
190 0% 99.5%  
191 0% 99.5%  
192 0% 99.5%  
193 0% 99.4%  
194 0% 99.4%  
195 0% 99.4%  
196 0% 99.4%  
197 2% 99.4%  
198 0% 97%  
199 0% 97%  
200 0% 97%  
201 0% 97%  
202 0% 97%  
203 0.1% 97%  
204 0.3% 97%  
205 0% 97%  
206 5% 97%  
207 0.1% 92%  
208 0% 91%  
209 0% 91%  
210 0.1% 91%  
211 0.3% 91%  
212 0% 91%  
213 2% 91%  
214 0.1% 89%  
215 0.8% 89%  
216 0% 88%  
217 0.6% 88%  
218 1.4% 87%  
219 0.1% 86%  
220 0.9% 86%  
221 1.1% 85%  
222 19% 84%  
223 0% 65%  
224 0.6% 65%  
225 1.1% 65%  
226 4% 63%  
227 0.6% 60%  
228 0.9% 59% Median
229 0% 58%  
230 0.2% 58%  
231 0.1% 58%  
232 5% 58%  
233 2% 53%  
234 0.1% 51%  
235 0.6% 51%  
236 4% 50%  
237 0.1% 46%  
238 0.4% 46%  
239 0.3% 45%  
240 0.5% 45%  
241 0.1% 44%  
242 0.2% 44%  
243 0% 44%  
244 0.6% 44%  
245 17% 44%  
246 0% 26%  
247 0% 26%  
248 0% 26%  
249 0% 26%  
250 0.1% 26%  
251 0% 26%  
252 0% 26%  
253 0.7% 26%  
254 0.1% 25%  
255 0.1% 25%  
256 0.1% 25%  
257 0.7% 25%  
258 0% 24%  
259 0.1% 24%  
260 0% 24%  
261 23% 24%  
262 0% 1.0%  
263 0.1% 1.0%  
264 0.1% 0.9%  
265 0% 0.8%  
266 0% 0.8%  
267 0.1% 0.8%  
268 0% 0.8%  
269 0.1% 0.7%  
270 0% 0.7%  
271 0% 0.6%  
272 0.1% 0.6%  
273 0% 0.5%  
274 0.1% 0.5%  
275 0.3% 0.4%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
192 0.1% 100%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0.5% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.4%  
197 0% 99.4%  
198 0% 99.4%  
199 2% 99.4%  
200 0.1% 97%  
201 0.1% 97%  
202 0% 97%  
203 0% 97%  
204 0.1% 97%  
205 0.1% 97%  
206 0% 97%  
207 0% 97%  
208 0% 97%  
209 0.9% 97%  
210 0.1% 96%  
211 0.4% 96%  
212 6% 95%  
213 0% 89%  
214 0% 89%  
215 1.2% 89%  
216 0.3% 88%  
217 0.4% 87%  
218 0.4% 87%  
219 0.1% 87%  
220 2% 87%  
221 0.2% 85%  
222 0.2% 85%  
223 0.6% 85%  
224 3% 84%  
225 23% 81%  
226 0.2% 58%  
227 3% 58%  
228 0% 55%  
229 0% 55%  
230 0.1% 55%  
231 0.2% 55% Median
232 7% 55%  
233 0% 48%  
234 0.1% 48%  
235 0.2% 48%  
236 0.2% 47%  
237 0.5% 47%  
238 4% 47%  
239 1.4% 43%  
240 0% 42%  
241 0.1% 42%  
242 0% 41%  
243 0.2% 41%  
244 0% 41%  
245 0.4% 41%  
246 0.1% 41%  
247 0.6% 41%  
248 0.9% 40%  
249 0% 39%  
250 14% 39%  
251 0% 25%  
252 0.1% 25%  
253 0% 25%  
254 0% 25%  
255 0% 25%  
256 0% 25%  
257 0.1% 25%  
258 0.7% 25%  
259 23% 24%  
260 0% 0.9%  
261 0.1% 0.9%  
262 0% 0.8%  
263 0% 0.8%  
264 0% 0.8%  
265 0% 0.8%  
266 0.1% 0.8%  
267 0% 0.7%  
268 0.3% 0.7%  
269 0.2% 0.4%  
270 0.1% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
175 0.5% 100%  
176 0% 99.5%  
177 0% 99.5%  
178 0% 99.5%  
179 0% 99.5%  
180 0% 99.5%  
181 0% 99.5%  
182 0% 99.5%  
183 0% 99.5%  
184 0% 99.5%  
185 0% 99.4%  
186 0% 99.4%  
187 0% 99.4%  
188 0% 99.4%  
189 0% 99.4%  
190 2% 99.4%  
191 0% 97%  
192 0% 97%  
193 0.2% 97%  
194 0% 97%  
195 0% 97%  
196 0% 97%  
197 0% 97%  
198 4% 97%  
199 0.3% 92%  
200 0.8% 92%  
201 0% 91%  
202 0% 91%  
203 0.1% 91%  
204 0.6% 91%  
205 0% 90%  
206 0.1% 90%  
207 1.1% 90%  
208 2% 89%  
209 0.4% 87%  
210 0.1% 86%  
211 1.0% 86%  
212 0% 85%  
213 0.7% 85%  
214 2% 85%  
215 0% 82%  
216 0.1% 82%  
217 0.2% 82%  
218 18% 82%  
219 0.1% 64%  
220 3% 64%  
221 4% 61%  
222 0% 57%  
223 3% 57% Median
224 2% 55%  
225 0.1% 53%  
226 4% 53%  
227 0.1% 49%  
228 0.3% 49%  
229 2% 48%  
230 0.2% 46%  
231 0.6% 46%  
232 0.6% 45%  
233 0.2% 45%  
234 0.1% 45%  
235 1.0% 44%  
236 0% 43%  
237 0.1% 43%  
238 3% 43%  
239 0% 40%  
240 0% 40%  
241 14% 40%  
242 0% 26%  
243 0% 26%  
244 0% 26%  
245 0.7% 26%  
246 0.9% 26%  
247 0% 25%  
248 0% 25%  
249 0.2% 25%  
250 0.1% 25%  
251 0.1% 24%  
252 0% 24%  
253 0% 24%  
254 0% 24%  
255 0% 24%  
256 23% 24%  
257 0% 0.9%  
258 0% 0.9%  
259 0.1% 0.9%  
260 0% 0.8%  
261 0.1% 0.8%  
262 0% 0.7%  
263 0% 0.7%  
264 0.1% 0.7%  
265 0.1% 0.6%  
266 0.1% 0.5%  
267 0% 0.5%  
268 0% 0.5%  
269 0% 0.5%  
270 0.1% 0.5%  
271 0.3% 0.4%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
175 0.5% 100%  
176 0% 99.5%  
177 0% 99.5%  
178 0% 99.5%  
179 0% 99.5%  
180 0% 99.5%  
181 0% 99.5%  
182 0% 99.5%  
183 0% 99.5%  
184 0% 99.5%  
185 0% 99.4%  
186 0% 99.4%  
187 0% 99.4%  
188 0% 99.4%  
189 0% 99.4%  
190 2% 99.4%  
191 0% 97%  
192 0% 97%  
193 0.2% 97%  
194 0% 97%  
195 0% 97%  
196 0% 97%  
197 0% 97%  
198 4% 97%  
199 0.3% 92%  
200 0.8% 92%  
201 0% 91%  
202 0% 91%  
203 0.1% 91%  
204 0.6% 91%  
205 0% 90%  
206 0.1% 90%  
207 1.1% 90%  
208 2% 89%  
209 0.4% 87%  
210 0.1% 86%  
211 1.0% 86%  
212 0% 85%  
213 0.7% 85%  
214 2% 85%  
215 0% 82%  
216 0.1% 82%  
217 0.2% 82%  
218 18% 82%  
219 0.1% 64%  
220 3% 64%  
221 4% 61%  
222 0% 57%  
223 3% 57% Median
224 2% 55%  
225 0.1% 53%  
226 4% 53%  
227 0.1% 49%  
228 0.3% 49%  
229 2% 48%  
230 0.2% 46%  
231 0.6% 46%  
232 0.6% 45%  
233 0.2% 45%  
234 0.1% 45%  
235 1.0% 44%  
236 0% 43%  
237 0.1% 43%  
238 3% 43%  
239 0% 40%  
240 0% 40%  
241 14% 40%  
242 0% 26%  
243 0% 26%  
244 0% 26%  
245 0.7% 26%  
246 0.9% 26%  
247 0% 25%  
248 0% 25%  
249 0.2% 25%  
250 0.1% 25%  
251 0.1% 24%  
252 0% 24%  
253 0% 24%  
254 0% 24%  
255 0% 24%  
256 23% 24%  
257 0% 0.9%  
258 0% 0.9%  
259 0.1% 0.9%  
260 0% 0.8%  
261 0.1% 0.8%  
262 0% 0.7%  
263 0% 0.7%  
264 0.1% 0.7%  
265 0.1% 0.6%  
266 0.1% 0.5%  
267 0% 0.5%  
268 0% 0.5%  
269 0% 0.5%  
270 0.1% 0.5%  
271 0.3% 0.4%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0.5% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.5%  
185 0% 99.5%  
186 0% 99.4%  
187 0% 99.4%  
188 0% 99.4%  
189 0% 99.4%  
190 0% 99.4%  
191 0% 99.4%  
192 2% 99.4%  
193 0% 97%  
194 0% 97%  
195 0% 97%  
196 0% 97%  
197 0% 97%  
198 0.2% 97%  
199 0% 97%  
200 0.1% 97%  
201 0.1% 96%  
202 0% 96%  
203 0.7% 96%  
204 4% 96%  
205 0.1% 91%  
206 0.1% 91%  
207 2% 91%  
208 0.5% 89%  
209 0.2% 88%  
210 1.0% 88%  
211 0.3% 87%  
212 0.8% 87%  
213 1.1% 86%  
214 2% 85%  
215 5% 83%  
216 0% 78%  
217 0.9% 78%  
218 0% 77%  
219 0.2% 77%  
220 2% 77%  
221 22% 75%  
222 0.2% 53%  
223 2% 53%  
224 0.5% 51%  
225 0.1% 50%  
226 0.1% 50% Median
227 0% 50%  
228 0.7% 50%  
229 3% 49%  
230 0.1% 47%  
231 4% 47%  
232 0% 42%  
233 0.6% 42%  
234 0% 42%  
235 0.2% 42%  
236 0.2% 41%  
237 0.8% 41%  
238 0% 40%  
239 0.7% 40%  
240 0.2% 40%  
241 0.2% 39%  
242 0.2% 39%  
243 0.1% 39%  
244 0% 39%  
245 0% 39%  
246 14% 39%  
247 0% 25%  
248 0% 25%  
249 0% 25%  
250 0.6% 25%  
251 0.1% 24%  
252 0% 24%  
253 0.1% 24%  
254 23% 24%  
255 0% 0.8%  
256 0% 0.8%  
257 0% 0.8%  
258 0.1% 0.8%  
259 0% 0.7%  
260 0% 0.7%  
261 0.1% 0.7%  
262 0.1% 0.6%  
263 0% 0.6%  
264 0.3% 0.6%  
265 0.2% 0.2%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0.5% 100%  
144 0% 99.5%  
145 0% 99.5%  
146 0% 99.5%  
147 0% 99.5%  
148 0% 99.4%  
149 2% 99.4%  
150 0% 97%  
151 0% 97%  
152 0.1% 97%  
153 0% 97%  
154 0% 97%  
155 0.1% 97%  
156 0.2% 97%  
157 0.3% 97%  
158 5% 96%  
159 2% 91%  
160 0% 89%  
161 0% 89%  
162 0% 89%  
163 0.2% 89%  
164 0.2% 89%  
165 0.2% 89%  
166 0.1% 89%  
167 0.2% 88%  
168 0.2% 88%  
169 0.9% 88%  
170 0.1% 87%  
171 0.5% 87%  
172 0.2% 86%  
173 2% 86%  
174 21% 84%  
175 0.2% 63%  
176 3% 62%  
177 4% 59%  
178 3% 55%  
179 4% 52%  
180 0% 48% Median
181 0.3% 48%  
182 0.3% 48%  
183 0.2% 48%  
184 0% 47%  
185 5% 47%  
186 0% 43%  
187 0.1% 43%  
188 1.1% 43%  
189 0.2% 42%  
190 0% 41%  
191 0.2% 41%  
192 0.2% 41%  
193 0.2% 41%  
194 0.5% 41%  
195 0% 40%  
196 0.1% 40%  
197 0.3% 40%  
198 0% 40%  
199 14% 40%  
200 0% 26%  
201 0.1% 26%  
202 0% 26%  
203 0.8% 26%  
204 0% 25%  
205 0.7% 25%  
206 23% 24%  
207 0% 1.1%  
208 0.1% 1.1%  
209 0% 0.9%  
210 0% 0.9%  
211 0.1% 0.9%  
212 0.1% 0.8%  
213 0.1% 0.8%  
214 0% 0.7%  
215 0.3% 0.7%  
216 0.1% 0.4%  
217 0% 0.3%  
218 0.1% 0.3%  
219 0% 0.2%  
220 0.1% 0.1%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0.5% 100%  
132 0% 99.5%  
133 0% 99.5%  
134 0% 99.5%  
135 0% 99.5%  
136 0% 99.5%  
137 0% 99.5%  
138 0% 99.5%  
139 0% 99.4%  
140 0% 99.4%  
141 0% 99.4%  
142 2% 99.4%  
143 0.1% 97%  
144 0.1% 97%  
145 0% 97%  
146 0% 97%  
147 0.2% 97%  
148 0% 97%  
149 0% 97%  
150 4% 97%  
151 0.2% 92%  
152 0.8% 92%  
153 0.4% 91%  
154 2% 91%  
155 0% 89%  
156 0.1% 89%  
157 0% 89%  
158 0.2% 89%  
159 0.2% 89%  
160 1.3% 88%  
161 0% 87%  
162 0.6% 87%  
163 0.7% 87%  
164 1.1% 86%  
165 0.9% 85%  
166 0.1% 84%  
167 6% 84%  
168 5% 78%  
169 0.5% 73%  
170 19% 72%  
171 0.2% 53%  
172 2% 53%  
173 0.6% 51%  
174 0.1% 50%  
175 3% 50% Median
176 0% 47%  
177 1.3% 47%  
178 3% 46%  
179 0.8% 43%  
180 0% 42%  
181 0.2% 42%  
182 0.2% 42%  
183 0.1% 42%  
184 0.6% 42%  
185 0% 41%  
186 0.6% 41%  
187 0.1% 41%  
188 0.5% 40%  
189 0% 40%  
190 0.1% 40%  
191 0.1% 40%  
192 0.8% 40%  
193 0.1% 39%  
194 0% 39%  
195 14% 39%  
196 0% 25%  
197 0.6% 25%  
198 0% 24%  
199 0.1% 24%  
200 0% 24%  
201 23% 24%  
202 0.1% 1.0%  
203 0% 0.9%  
204 0.1% 0.9%  
205 0.1% 0.8%  
206 0% 0.8%  
207 0% 0.7%  
208 0.1% 0.7%  
209 0% 0.7%  
210 0% 0.6%  
211 0.3% 0.6%  
212 0.1% 0.3%  
213 0% 0.2%  
214 0.1% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0.5% 100%  
132 0% 99.5%  
133 0% 99.5%  
134 0% 99.5%  
135 0% 99.5%  
136 0% 99.5%  
137 0% 99.5%  
138 0% 99.5%  
139 0% 99.4%  
140 0% 99.4%  
141 0% 99.4%  
142 2% 99.4%  
143 0.1% 97%  
144 0.1% 97%  
145 0% 97%  
146 0% 97%  
147 0.2% 97%  
148 0% 97%  
149 0% 97%  
150 4% 97%  
151 0.2% 92%  
152 0.8% 92%  
153 0.4% 91%  
154 2% 91%  
155 0% 89%  
156 0.1% 89%  
157 0% 89%  
158 0.2% 89%  
159 0.2% 89%  
160 1.3% 88%  
161 0% 87%  
162 0.6% 87%  
163 0.7% 87%  
164 1.1% 86%  
165 0.9% 85%  
166 0.1% 84%  
167 6% 84%  
168 5% 78%  
169 0.5% 73%  
170 19% 72%  
171 0.2% 53%  
172 2% 53%  
173 0.6% 51%  
174 0.1% 50%  
175 3% 50% Median
176 0% 47%  
177 1.3% 47%  
178 3% 46%  
179 0.8% 43%  
180 0% 42%  
181 0.2% 42%  
182 0.2% 42%  
183 0.1% 42%  
184 0.6% 42%  
185 0% 41%  
186 0.6% 41%  
187 0.1% 41%  
188 0.5% 40%  
189 0% 40%  
190 0.1% 40%  
191 0.1% 40%  
192 0.8% 40%  
193 0.1% 39%  
194 0% 39%  
195 14% 39%  
196 0% 25%  
197 0.6% 25%  
198 0% 24%  
199 0.1% 24%  
200 0% 24%  
201 23% 24%  
202 0.1% 1.0%  
203 0% 0.9%  
204 0.1% 0.9%  
205 0.1% 0.8%  
206 0% 0.8%  
207 0% 0.7%  
208 0.1% 0.7%  
209 0% 0.7%  
210 0% 0.6%  
211 0.3% 0.6%  
212 0.1% 0.3%  
213 0% 0.2%  
214 0.1% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations