Opinion Poll by BMG Research for The Independent, 3–6 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | 43.4% | 29.1% | 27.6–30.7% | 27.2–31.1% | 26.9–31.5% | 26.2–32.2% |
| Labour Party | 41.0% | 25.3% | 23.9–26.8% | 23.5–27.2% | 23.2–27.6% | 22.5–28.3% |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.6% | 17.8% | 16.6–19.1% | 16.3–19.5% | 16.0–19.8% | 15.4–20.5% |
| Brexit Party | 0.0% | 12.2% | 11.2–13.4% | 10.9–13.7% | 10.7–14.0% | 10.2–14.6% |
| Green Party | 1.7% | 5.7% | 5.0–6.5% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.3–7.4% |
| Scottish National Party | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.1% |
| UK Independence Party | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.3% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
| Change UK | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | 317 | 273 | 249–297 | 249–304 | 246–313 | 239–319 |
| Labour Party | 262 | 232 | 220–249 | 208–249 | 200–262 | 191–265 |
| Liberal Democrats | 12 | 71 | 63–76 | 62–76 | 62–77 | 59–82 |
| Brexit Party | 0 | 4 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 0–6 | 0–8 |
| Green Party | 1 | 3 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Scottish National Party | 35 | 47 | 42–51 | 37–51 | 37–51 | 32–53 |
| UK Independence Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Plaid Cymru | 4 | 2 | 2–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Change UK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 220 | 0% | 100% | |
| 221 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 223 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 224 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 226 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 227 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 228 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 232 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 234 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 238 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 239 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 240 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 241 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 242 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 243 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 244 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 245 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 246 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 247 | 0% | 97% | |
| 248 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 249 | 8% | 97% | |
| 250 | 0% | 89% | |
| 251 | 0% | 89% | |
| 252 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 254 | 1.2% | 89% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 256 | 0% | 87% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 258 | 0% | 87% | |
| 259 | 0.3% | 87% | |
| 260 | 1.3% | 87% | |
| 261 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 263 | 0% | 85% | |
| 264 | 0% | 85% | |
| 265 | 0% | 85% | |
| 266 | 0% | 85% | |
| 267 | 0% | 85% | |
| 268 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 269 | 0% | 85% | |
| 270 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 271 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 272 | 7% | 85% | |
| 273 | 53% | 78% | Median |
| 274 | 1.5% | 24% | |
| 275 | 3% | 23% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 277 | 0.2% | 19% | |
| 278 | 0.3% | 19% | |
| 279 | 1.4% | 19% | |
| 280 | 0.2% | 17% | |
| 281 | 1.4% | 17% | |
| 282 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 284 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 285 | 0% | 15% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 288 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 289 | 0.8% | 14% | |
| 290 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 291 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 293 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 294 | 0.4% | 11% | |
| 295 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 296 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 297 | 4% | 11% | |
| 298 | 0% | 7% | |
| 299 | 1.5% | 7% | |
| 300 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 302 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 303 | 0% | 5% | |
| 304 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 305 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 306 | 0% | 4% | |
| 307 | 0% | 4% | |
| 308 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 309 | 0% | 3% | |
| 310 | 0% | 3% | |
| 311 | 0% | 3% | |
| 312 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 313 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 314 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 315 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 316 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 317 | 0% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 318 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 319 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 320 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 322 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 323 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 331 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 179 | 0% | 100% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 182 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 183 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 185 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 186 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 188 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 189 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 190 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 191 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 192 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 193 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 194 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 195 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 196 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 197 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 198 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 199 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 200 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 201 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 202 | 0% | 96% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 208 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 209 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 211 | 0% | 94% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 213 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 215 | 1.1% | 92% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 217 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 218 | 0% | 90% | |
| 219 | 0.4% | 90% | |
| 220 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 221 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 223 | 0% | 90% | |
| 224 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 226 | 4% | 89% | |
| 227 | 0.5% | 85% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 229 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 230 | 0.7% | 84% | |
| 231 | 4% | 84% | |
| 232 | 53% | 80% | Median |
| 233 | 0.2% | 27% | |
| 234 | 7% | 27% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 20% | |
| 236 | 1.4% | 20% | |
| 237 | 3% | 18% | |
| 238 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 239 | 1.2% | 15% | |
| 240 | 0.5% | 14% | |
| 241 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 242 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 243 | 0% | 13% | |
| 244 | 0% | 13% | |
| 245 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 246 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 247 | 0% | 12% | |
| 248 | 0% | 12% | |
| 249 | 7% | 12% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 251 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 252 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 253 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 254 | 0% | 4% | |
| 255 | 0% | 4% | |
| 256 | 0% | 4% | |
| 257 | 0% | 4% | |
| 258 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 260 | 0% | 3% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 262 | 1.2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 263 | 0% | 2% | |
| 264 | 0% | 2% | |
| 265 | 2% | 2% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 267 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 269 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 271 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 275 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 277 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 278 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 279 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 280 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 281 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 285 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0% |
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 5% | 98% | |
| 63 | 4% | 93% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 65 | 2% | 89% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 67 | 1.3% | 87% | |
| 68 | 2% | 86% | |
| 69 | 1.3% | 83% | |
| 70 | 11% | 82% | |
| 71 | 56% | 71% | Median |
| 72 | 0.7% | 16% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 15% | |
| 74 | 1.5% | 14% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 13% | |
| 76 | 9% | 12% | |
| 77 | 2% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 80 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Brexit Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 4% | 97% | |
| 2 | 25% | 92% | |
| 3 | 4% | 67% | |
| 4 | 59% | 63% | Median |
| 5 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 64% | 97% | Median |
| 4 | 15% | 33% | |
| 5 | 19% | 19% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 31 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 33 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 37 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 41 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 42 | 3% | 91% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 88% | |
| 44 | 2% | 87% | |
| 45 | 3% | 85% | |
| 46 | 1.5% | 82% | |
| 47 | 58% | 81% | Median |
| 48 | 9% | 23% | |
| 49 | 3% | 13% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 51 | 9% | 10% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
UK Independence Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | |
| 1 | 2% | 92% | |
| 2 | 80% | 91% | Median |
| 3 | 7% | 11% | |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Change UK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 314 | 355 | 95% | 333–381 | 326–381 | 319–384 | 310–390 |
| Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK | 329 | 344 | 88% | 325–360 | 325–370 | 318–379 | 314–391 |
| Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats | 329 | 344 | 88% | 325–360 | 325–370 | 318–379 | 314–391 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 313 | 352 | 93% | 328–378 | 322–378 | 314–379 | 305–385 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party | 309 | 350 | 93% | 326–376 | 319–376 | 312–378 | 302–382 |
| Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 356 | 322 | 17% | 302–336 | 302–350 | 295–357 | 288–361 |
| Conservative Party – Scottish National Party | 352 | 320 | 15% | 300–334 | 300–348 | 295–355 | 284–358 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru | 278 | 305 | 12% | 291–327 | 278–327 | 272–332 | 266–339 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK | 274 | 303 | 5% | 289–325 | 275–325 | 270–332 | 263–335 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats | 274 | 303 | 5% | 289–325 | 275–325 | 270–332 | 263–335 |
| Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru | 321 | 275 | 0.2% | 251–299 | 251–307 | 248–315 | 241–322 |
| Conservative Party – Brexit Party | 317 | 277 | 0.2% | 251–299 | 251–306 | 248–313 | 242–322 |
| Conservative Party – Change UK | 317 | 273 | 0.1% | 249–297 | 249–304 | 246–313 | 239–319 |
| Conservative Party | 317 | 273 | 0.1% | 249–297 | 249–304 | 246–313 | 239–319 |
| Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 301 | 281 | 0.2% | 265–302 | 254–302 | 248–309 | 233–311 |
| Labour Party – Scottish National Party | 297 | 279 | 0.2% | 263–300 | 251–300 | 245–309 | 230–310 |
| Labour Party – Plaid Cymru | 266 | 234 | 0% | 223–251 | 211–251 | 202–262 | 194–266 |
| Labour Party – Change UK | 262 | 232 | 0% | 220–249 | 208–249 | 200–262 | 191–265 |
| Labour Party | 262 | 232 | 0% | 220–249 | 208–249 | 200–262 | 191–265 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 286 | 0% | 100% | |
| 287 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 288 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 289 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 290 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 291 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 292 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 293 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 294 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 295 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 296 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 297 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 298 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 299 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 300 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 301 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 302 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 303 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 304 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 305 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 306 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 307 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 308 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 309 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 310 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 311 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 312 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 313 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 314 | 0% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 315 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 316 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 317 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 318 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 319 | 1.3% | 98.7% | |
| 320 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 321 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 322 | 0% | 96% | |
| 323 | 0% | 96% | |
| 324 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 325 | 0% | 95% | |
| 326 | 2% | 95% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 328 | 0% | 93% | |
| 329 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 330 | 0% | 93% | |
| 331 | 0% | 93% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 333 | 4% | 93% | |
| 334 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 336 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 337 | 0.5% | 89% | |
| 338 | 0% | 88% | |
| 339 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 340 | 0.9% | 88% | |
| 341 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 342 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 343 | 0.9% | 85% | |
| 344 | 0% | 85% | |
| 345 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 346 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 347 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 348 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 349 | 3% | 84% | |
| 350 | 0.2% | 81% | |
| 351 | 0.1% | 81% | |
| 352 | 0.5% | 81% | |
| 353 | 3% | 81% | |
| 354 | 1.2% | 77% | |
| 355 | 54% | 76% | Median |
| 356 | 0.2% | 22% | |
| 357 | 0.1% | 22% | |
| 358 | 7% | 22% | |
| 359 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 360 | 0% | 15% | |
| 361 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 362 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 363 | 0% | 15% | |
| 364 | 0% | 15% | |
| 365 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 366 | 0% | 15% | |
| 367 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 368 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 369 | 1.2% | 14% | |
| 370 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 371 | 0% | 13% | |
| 372 | 0% | 13% | |
| 373 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 374 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 375 | 0% | 12% | |
| 376 | 0% | 12% | |
| 377 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 378 | 0.4% | 11% | |
| 379 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 380 | 0% | 11% | |
| 381 | 8% | 10% | |
| 382 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 383 | 0% | 3% | |
| 384 | 2% | 3% | |
| 385 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 386 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 387 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 388 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 389 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 390 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 391 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 392 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 393 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 395 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 398 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 400 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 401 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 402 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 403 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 404 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 405 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 406 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 407 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 408 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 409 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 410 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 411 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 412 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 413 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 291 | 0% | 100% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 293 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 294 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 295 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 296 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 297 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 298 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 299 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 300 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 301 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 302 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 303 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 304 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 305 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 306 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 307 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 308 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 309 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 310 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 311 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 312 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 313 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 314 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 315 | 0% | 98% | |
| 316 | 0% | 98% | |
| 317 | 0% | 98% | |
| 318 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 319 | 0% | 97% | |
| 320 | 0% | 97% | |
| 321 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 322 | 0% | 97% | |
| 323 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 324 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 325 | 7% | 95% | |
| 326 | 0% | 88% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 328 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 329 | 0.3% | 88% | Last Result |
| 330 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 331 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 332 | 0% | 87% | |
| 333 | 0% | 87% | |
| 334 | 1.4% | 87% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 336 | 0% | 86% | |
| 337 | 3% | 86% | |
| 338 | 0% | 82% | |
| 339 | 0% | 82% | |
| 340 | 0.2% | 82% | |
| 341 | 0.3% | 82% | |
| 342 | 7% | 82% | |
| 343 | 0.5% | 75% | |
| 344 | 54% | 74% | Median |
| 345 | 0.5% | 20% | |
| 346 | 0.3% | 19% | |
| 347 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 348 | 0.2% | 19% | |
| 349 | 0.2% | 19% | |
| 350 | 0.2% | 18% | |
| 351 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 352 | 2% | 17% | |
| 353 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 354 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 355 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 356 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 357 | 0.5% | 14% | |
| 358 | 0.7% | 14% | |
| 359 | 0.6% | 13% | |
| 360 | 4% | 13% | |
| 361 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 362 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 363 | 0% | 8% | |
| 364 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 365 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 366 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 367 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 368 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 369 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 370 | 2% | 6% | |
| 371 | 0% | 4% | |
| 372 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 373 | 0% | 4% | |
| 374 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 375 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 376 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 377 | 0% | 3% | |
| 378 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 379 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 380 | 0% | 2% | |
| 381 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 382 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 383 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 384 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 385 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 386 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 387 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 388 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 389 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 390 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 391 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 392 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 393 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 395 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 398 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 400 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 401 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 402 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 403 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 404 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 405 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 406 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 407 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 408 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 291 | 0% | 100% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 293 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 294 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 295 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 296 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 297 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 298 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 299 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 300 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 301 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 302 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 303 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 304 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 305 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 306 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 307 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 308 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 309 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 310 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 311 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 312 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 313 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 314 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 315 | 0% | 98% | |
| 316 | 0% | 98% | |
| 317 | 0% | 98% | |
| 318 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 319 | 0% | 97% | |
| 320 | 0% | 97% | |
| 321 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 322 | 0% | 97% | |
| 323 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 324 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 325 | 7% | 95% | |
| 326 | 0% | 88% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 328 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 329 | 0.3% | 88% | Last Result |
| 330 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 331 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 332 | 0% | 87% | |
| 333 | 0% | 87% | |
| 334 | 1.4% | 87% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 336 | 0% | 86% | |
| 337 | 3% | 86% | |
| 338 | 0% | 82% | |
| 339 | 0% | 82% | |
| 340 | 0.2% | 82% | |
| 341 | 0.3% | 82% | |
| 342 | 7% | 82% | |
| 343 | 0.5% | 75% | |
| 344 | 54% | 74% | Median |
| 345 | 0.5% | 20% | |
| 346 | 0.3% | 19% | |
| 347 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 348 | 0.2% | 19% | |
| 349 | 0.2% | 19% | |
| 350 | 0.2% | 18% | |
| 351 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 352 | 2% | 17% | |
| 353 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 354 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 355 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 356 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 357 | 0.5% | 14% | |
| 358 | 0.7% | 14% | |
| 359 | 0.6% | 13% | |
| 360 | 4% | 13% | |
| 361 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 362 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 363 | 0% | 8% | |
| 364 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 365 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 366 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 367 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 368 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 369 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 370 | 2% | 6% | |
| 371 | 0% | 4% | |
| 372 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 373 | 0% | 4% | |
| 374 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 375 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 376 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 377 | 0% | 3% | |
| 378 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 379 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 380 | 0% | 2% | |
| 381 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 382 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 383 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 384 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 385 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 386 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 387 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 388 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 389 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 390 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 391 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 392 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 393 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 395 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 398 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 400 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 401 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 402 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 403 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 404 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 405 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 406 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 407 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 408 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 281 | 0% | 100% | |
| 282 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 283 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 284 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 285 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 286 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 287 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 288 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 289 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 290 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 291 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 292 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 293 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 294 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 295 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 296 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 297 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 298 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 299 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 300 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 301 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 302 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 304 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 305 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 306 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 307 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 308 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 309 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 310 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 311 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 312 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 313 | 0% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 314 | 1.3% | 98.7% | |
| 315 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 316 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 317 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 318 | 0% | 96% | |
| 319 | 0% | 96% | |
| 320 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 321 | 0% | 95% | |
| 322 | 2% | 95% | |
| 323 | 0% | 94% | |
| 324 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 325 | 0% | 93% | |
| 326 | 0.1% | 93% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 328 | 4% | 93% | |
| 329 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 330 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 332 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 333 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 334 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 335 | 0.6% | 88% | |
| 336 | 0.8% | 88% | |
| 337 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 338 | 1.2% | 86% | |
| 339 | 0% | 85% | |
| 340 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 341 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 342 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 343 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 344 | 1.5% | 84% | |
| 345 | 0.3% | 83% | |
| 346 | 1.4% | 83% | |
| 347 | 0.3% | 81% | |
| 348 | 4% | 81% | |
| 349 | 0% | 77% | |
| 350 | 0.5% | 77% | |
| 351 | 0.2% | 77% | |
| 352 | 54% | 77% | Median |
| 353 | 0.1% | 22% | |
| 354 | 7% | 22% | |
| 355 | 0% | 15% | |
| 356 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 357 | 0% | 15% | |
| 358 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 359 | 0% | 15% | |
| 360 | 0% | 15% | |
| 361 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 362 | 0% | 15% | |
| 363 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 364 | 1.4% | 14% | |
| 365 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 366 | 0% | 13% | |
| 367 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 368 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 369 | 0% | 13% | |
| 370 | 0% | 13% | |
| 371 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 372 | 0% | 12% | |
| 373 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 374 | 0% | 11% | |
| 375 | 0.7% | 11% | |
| 376 | 0% | 11% | |
| 377 | 0% | 10% | |
| 378 | 8% | 10% | |
| 379 | 2% | 3% | |
| 380 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 381 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 382 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 383 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 384 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 385 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 386 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 387 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 388 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 389 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 390 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 391 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 392 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 393 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 395 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 398 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 400 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 401 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 402 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 403 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 404 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 405 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 406 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 407 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 408 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 409 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 278 | 0% | 100% | |
| 279 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 280 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 281 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 282 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 283 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 284 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 285 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 286 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 287 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 288 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 289 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 290 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 291 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 292 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 293 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 294 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 295 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 296 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 297 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 298 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 299 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 300 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 301 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 302 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 303 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 304 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 305 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 306 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 307 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 308 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 309 | 0% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 310 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 311 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 312 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 313 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 314 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 315 | 0% | 96% | |
| 316 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 317 | 0% | 96% | |
| 318 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 319 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 320 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 321 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 322 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 323 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 324 | 0% | 93% | |
| 325 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 326 | 4% | 93% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 89% | |
| 328 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 329 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 330 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 332 | 0.8% | 88% | |
| 333 | 1.5% | 88% | |
| 334 | 0% | 86% | |
| 335 | 0% | 86% | |
| 336 | 1.4% | 86% | |
| 337 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 338 | 0% | 85% | |
| 339 | 0% | 85% | |
| 340 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 341 | 0.2% | 84% | |
| 342 | 0% | 84% | |
| 343 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 344 | 2% | 84% | |
| 345 | 0.5% | 82% | |
| 346 | 5% | 82% | |
| 347 | 0.3% | 77% | |
| 348 | 0.2% | 77% | |
| 349 | 0.1% | 77% | |
| 350 | 53% | 77% | Median |
| 351 | 0.2% | 24% | |
| 352 | 8% | 24% | |
| 353 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 354 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 355 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 356 | 0% | 15% | |
| 357 | 0% | 15% | |
| 358 | 0% | 15% | |
| 359 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 360 | 1.4% | 14% | |
| 361 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 362 | 0% | 13% | |
| 363 | 0% | 13% | |
| 364 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 365 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 366 | 0% | 13% | |
| 367 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 368 | 0% | 13% | |
| 369 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 370 | 0% | 12% | |
| 371 | 0% | 12% | |
| 372 | 0% | 12% | |
| 373 | 2% | 12% | |
| 374 | 0% | 11% | |
| 375 | 0% | 10% | |
| 376 | 7% | 10% | |
| 377 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 378 | 2% | 3% | |
| 379 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 380 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 381 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 382 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 383 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 384 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 385 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 386 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 387 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 388 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 389 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 390 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 391 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 392 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 393 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 395 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 398 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 400 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 401 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 402 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 403 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 404 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 405 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 406 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 407 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 408 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 263 | 0% | 100% | |
| 264 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 265 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 266 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 267 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 268 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 269 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 270 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 271 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 272 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 273 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 274 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 275 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 276 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 277 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 278 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 279 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 280 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 281 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 282 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 283 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 284 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 285 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 286 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 287 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 288 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 289 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 290 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 292 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 293 | 0% | 98% | |
| 294 | 0% | 98% | |
| 295 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 296 | 0% | 96% | |
| 297 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 298 | 0% | 96% | |
| 299 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 300 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 301 | 0% | 95% | |
| 302 | 8% | 95% | |
| 303 | 0% | 87% | |
| 304 | 0% | 87% | |
| 305 | 0% | 87% | |
| 306 | 0% | 87% | |
| 307 | 0% | 87% | |
| 308 | 0% | 87% | |
| 309 | 0.2% | 87% | |
| 310 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 311 | 1.4% | 87% | |
| 312 | 0.3% | 86% | |
| 313 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 314 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 315 | 0% | 85% | |
| 316 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 317 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 318 | 1.1% | 85% | |
| 319 | 0% | 84% | |
| 320 | 0% | 84% | |
| 321 | 0% | 84% | |
| 322 | 60% | 84% | Median |
| 323 | 2% | 23% | |
| 324 | 5% | 22% | |
| 325 | 0.5% | 17% | |
| 326 | 0.2% | 17% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.8% | 16% | |
| 328 | 0% | 16% | |
| 329 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 330 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 332 | 0.2% | 14% | |
| 333 | 0% | 14% | |
| 334 | 0.2% | 14% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 336 | 4% | 14% | |
| 337 | 0.5% | 10% | |
| 338 | 0% | 9% | |
| 339 | 0% | 9% | |
| 340 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 341 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 342 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 343 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 344 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 345 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 346 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 347 | 0% | 7% | |
| 348 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 349 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 350 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 351 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 352 | 0% | 4% | |
| 353 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 354 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 355 | 0% | 3% | |
| 356 | 0% | 3% | Last Result |
| 357 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 358 | 0% | 2% | |
| 359 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 360 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 361 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 362 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 363 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 364 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 365 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 366 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 367 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 368 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 369 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 370 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 371 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 372 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 373 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 374 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 375 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 376 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 377 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 378 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 379 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 261 | 0% | 100% | |
| 262 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 263 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 264 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 265 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 266 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 267 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 268 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 269 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 270 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 272 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 273 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 274 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 275 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 277 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 278 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 279 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 280 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 281 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 282 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 283 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 284 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 285 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 286 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 287 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 288 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 289 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 290 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 291 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 292 | 0% | 98% | |
| 293 | 0% | 98% | |
| 294 | 0% | 98% | |
| 295 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 296 | 0% | 96% | |
| 297 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 298 | 0% | 96% | |
| 299 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 300 | 8% | 96% | |
| 301 | 0% | 87% | |
| 302 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 303 | 0% | 87% | |
| 304 | 0% | 87% | |
| 305 | 0.2% | 87% | |
| 306 | 0% | 87% | |
| 307 | 1.4% | 87% | |
| 308 | 0.4% | 86% | |
| 309 | 0% | 85% | |
| 310 | 0% | 85% | |
| 311 | 0% | 85% | |
| 312 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 313 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 314 | 0% | 85% | |
| 315 | 0% | 85% | |
| 316 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 317 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 318 | 1.1% | 85% | |
| 319 | 0% | 84% | |
| 320 | 60% | 84% | Median |
| 321 | 0.1% | 23% | |
| 322 | 3% | 23% | |
| 323 | 2% | 20% | |
| 324 | 2% | 18% | |
| 325 | 1.2% | 16% | |
| 326 | 0.1% | 15% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 15% | |
| 328 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 329 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 330 | 0.2% | 14% | |
| 331 | 0.2% | 14% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 333 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 334 | 4% | 14% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 336 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 337 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 338 | 0.6% | 9% | |
| 339 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 340 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 341 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 342 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 343 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 344 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 345 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 346 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 347 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 348 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 349 | 0% | 4% | |
| 350 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 351 | 0% | 3% | |
| 352 | 0% | 3% | Last Result |
| 353 | 0% | 3% | |
| 354 | 0% | 3% | |
| 355 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 356 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 357 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 358 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 359 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 360 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 361 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 362 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 363 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 364 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 365 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 366 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 367 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 368 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 369 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 370 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 371 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 372 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 373 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 374 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 375 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 376 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 249 | 0% | 100% | |
| 250 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 251 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 252 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 253 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 254 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 255 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 256 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 257 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 258 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 259 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 260 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 261 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 262 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 263 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 265 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 266 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 267 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 268 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 269 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 270 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 271 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 272 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 273 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 274 | 0% | 95% | |
| 275 | 0% | 95% | |
| 276 | 0% | 95% | |
| 277 | 0% | 95% | |
| 278 | 2% | 95% | Last Result |
| 279 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 282 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 284 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 286 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 287 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 288 | 0% | 91% | |
| 289 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 291 | 4% | 91% | |
| 292 | 0.7% | 87% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 295 | 0.5% | 86% | |
| 296 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 297 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 298 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 299 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 300 | 0.6% | 85% | |
| 301 | 5% | 84% | |
| 302 | 2% | 80% | |
| 303 | 0.4% | 77% | |
| 304 | 0.3% | 77% | |
| 305 | 53% | 77% | Median |
| 306 | 7% | 24% | |
| 307 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 308 | 1.1% | 16% | |
| 309 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 310 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 311 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 312 | 0% | 15% | |
| 313 | 0% | 15% | |
| 314 | 0% | 15% | |
| 315 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 316 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 317 | 2% | 14% | |
| 318 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 319 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 320 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 321 | 0% | 13% | |
| 322 | 0% | 13% | |
| 323 | 0% | 13% | |
| 324 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 325 | 0% | 12% | |
| 326 | 0% | 12% | Majority |
| 327 | 8% | 12% | |
| 328 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 329 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 330 | 0% | 4% | |
| 331 | 0% | 4% | |
| 332 | 2% | 4% | |
| 333 | 0% | 2% | |
| 334 | 2% | 2% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 339 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 352 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 353 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 355 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 357 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 358 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 359 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 360 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 361 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 362 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 363 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 364 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 365 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 366 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 246 | 0% | 100% | |
| 247 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 248 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 249 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 250 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 251 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 252 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 253 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 254 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 255 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 256 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 257 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 258 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 259 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 262 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 263 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 264 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 265 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 266 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 267 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 268 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 269 | 0% | 98% | |
| 270 | 2% | 98% | |
| 271 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 272 | 0% | 95% | |
| 273 | 0% | 95% | |
| 274 | 0% | 95% | Last Result |
| 275 | 2% | 95% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 277 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 278 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 279 | 0% | 93% | |
| 280 | 0% | 93% | |
| 281 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 282 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 283 | 0% | 93% | |
| 284 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 285 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 286 | 0% | 91% | |
| 287 | 0% | 91% | |
| 288 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 289 | 4% | 91% | |
| 290 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 292 | 0.5% | 86% | |
| 293 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 294 | 0% | 85% | |
| 295 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 296 | 0.8% | 85% | |
| 297 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 298 | 0% | 84% | |
| 299 | 3% | 84% | |
| 300 | 1.2% | 81% | |
| 301 | 1.4% | 80% | |
| 302 | 1.4% | 78% | |
| 303 | 53% | 77% | Median |
| 304 | 7% | 24% | |
| 305 | 0% | 16% | |
| 306 | 0% | 16% | |
| 307 | 0% | 16% | |
| 308 | 1.1% | 16% | |
| 309 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 310 | 0% | 15% | |
| 311 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 312 | 0% | 15% | |
| 313 | 2% | 15% | |
| 314 | 0% | 13% | |
| 315 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 316 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 317 | 0% | 13% | |
| 318 | 0% | 13% | |
| 319 | 0% | 13% | |
| 320 | 0% | 13% | |
| 321 | 0% | 13% | |
| 322 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 323 | 0% | 12% | |
| 324 | 0% | 12% | |
| 325 | 7% | 12% | |
| 326 | 0.3% | 5% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 328 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 329 | 0% | 4% | |
| 330 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 331 | 0% | 4% | |
| 332 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 333 | 2% | 2% | |
| 334 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 350 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 352 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 353 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 355 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 357 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 358 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 359 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 360 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 361 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 362 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 246 | 0% | 100% | |
| 247 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 248 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 249 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 250 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 251 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 252 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 253 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 254 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 255 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 256 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 257 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 258 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 259 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 262 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 263 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 264 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 265 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 266 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 267 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 268 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 269 | 0% | 98% | |
| 270 | 2% | 98% | |
| 271 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 272 | 0% | 95% | |
| 273 | 0% | 95% | |
| 274 | 0% | 95% | Last Result |
| 275 | 2% | 95% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 277 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 278 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 279 | 0% | 93% | |
| 280 | 0% | 93% | |
| 281 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 282 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 283 | 0% | 93% | |
| 284 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 285 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 286 | 0% | 91% | |
| 287 | 0% | 91% | |
| 288 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 289 | 4% | 91% | |
| 290 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 292 | 0.5% | 86% | |
| 293 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 294 | 0% | 85% | |
| 295 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 296 | 0.8% | 85% | |
| 297 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 298 | 0% | 84% | |
| 299 | 3% | 84% | |
| 300 | 1.2% | 81% | |
| 301 | 1.4% | 80% | |
| 302 | 1.4% | 78% | |
| 303 | 53% | 77% | Median |
| 304 | 7% | 24% | |
| 305 | 0% | 16% | |
| 306 | 0% | 16% | |
| 307 | 0% | 16% | |
| 308 | 1.1% | 16% | |
| 309 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 310 | 0% | 15% | |
| 311 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 312 | 0% | 15% | |
| 313 | 2% | 15% | |
| 314 | 0% | 13% | |
| 315 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 316 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 317 | 0% | 13% | |
| 318 | 0% | 13% | |
| 319 | 0% | 13% | |
| 320 | 0% | 13% | |
| 321 | 0% | 13% | |
| 322 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 323 | 0% | 12% | |
| 324 | 0% | 12% | |
| 325 | 7% | 12% | |
| 326 | 0.3% | 5% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 328 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 329 | 0% | 4% | |
| 330 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 331 | 0% | 4% | |
| 332 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 333 | 2% | 2% | |
| 334 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 350 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 352 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 353 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 355 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 357 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 358 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 359 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 360 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 361 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 362 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 221 | 0% | 100% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 223 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 224 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 225 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 226 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 228 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 232 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 234 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 237 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 238 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 239 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 240 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 241 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 242 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 243 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 244 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 245 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 246 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 247 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 248 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 249 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 250 | 0% | 97% | |
| 251 | 8% | 97% | |
| 252 | 0% | 89% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 254 | 2% | 89% | |
| 255 | 0% | 87% | |
| 256 | 0% | 87% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 258 | 0% | 87% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 260 | 0% | 87% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 262 | 0% | 87% | |
| 263 | 0.3% | 87% | |
| 264 | 1.3% | 87% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 266 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 267 | 0% | 85% | |
| 268 | 0% | 85% | |
| 269 | 0% | 85% | |
| 270 | 0% | 85% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 272 | 0% | 85% | |
| 273 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 274 | 8% | 85% | |
| 275 | 53% | 76% | Median |
| 276 | 0.4% | 23% | |
| 277 | 3% | 23% | |
| 278 | 0.3% | 20% | |
| 279 | 2% | 19% | |
| 280 | 0.2% | 18% | |
| 281 | 1.4% | 18% | |
| 282 | 0.3% | 16% | |
| 283 | 0.2% | 16% | |
| 284 | 0.4% | 16% | |
| 285 | 0% | 15% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 288 | 0% | 15% | |
| 289 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 290 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 291 | 0.8% | 15% | |
| 292 | 0.7% | 14% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 294 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 295 | 0.5% | 12% | |
| 296 | 0% | 12% | |
| 297 | 0.5% | 12% | |
| 298 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 299 | 4% | 11% | |
| 300 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 301 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 302 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 304 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 305 | 0% | 5% | |
| 306 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 307 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 308 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 309 | 0% | 4% | |
| 310 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 311 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 312 | 0% | 3% | |
| 313 | 0% | 3% | |
| 314 | 0% | 3% | |
| 315 | 2% | 3% | |
| 316 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 317 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 318 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 319 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 320 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 321 | 0.1% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 322 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 325 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 326 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 331 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Brexit Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 220 | 0% | 100% | |
| 221 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 222 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 223 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 224 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 228 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 232 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 234 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 237 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 238 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 239 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 241 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 242 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 243 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 244 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 245 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 246 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 247 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 248 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 249 | 0% | 97% | |
| 250 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 251 | 8% | 97% | |
| 252 | 0% | 90% | |
| 253 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 254 | 0% | 89% | |
| 255 | 1.2% | 89% | |
| 256 | 0% | 88% | |
| 257 | 0% | 88% | |
| 258 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 260 | 0% | 87% | |
| 261 | 0% | 87% | |
| 262 | 0.2% | 87% | |
| 263 | 1.5% | 87% | |
| 264 | 0% | 86% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 266 | 0% | 85% | |
| 267 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 268 | 0% | 85% | |
| 269 | 0% | 85% | |
| 270 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 271 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 272 | 0% | 85% | |
| 273 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 274 | 7% | 85% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 78% | |
| 276 | 0.2% | 78% | |
| 277 | 53% | 77% | Median |
| 278 | 1.2% | 24% | |
| 279 | 3% | 23% | |
| 280 | 0.5% | 19% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 282 | 0.2% | 19% | |
| 283 | 3% | 19% | |
| 284 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 285 | 0.3% | 16% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 288 | 0% | 15% | |
| 289 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 290 | 1.0% | 15% | |
| 291 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 292 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 293 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 294 | 0% | 12% | |
| 295 | 0.5% | 12% | |
| 296 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 297 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 298 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 299 | 4% | 11% | |
| 300 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 301 | 0% | 7% | |
| 302 | 0% | 7% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 304 | 0% | 7% | |
| 305 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 306 | 2% | 7% | |
| 307 | 0% | 5% | |
| 308 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 309 | 0% | 4% | |
| 310 | 0% | 4% | |
| 311 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 312 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 313 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 314 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 315 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 316 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 317 | 0% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 318 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 319 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 322 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 323 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 324 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 331 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Change UK
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 220 | 0% | 100% | |
| 221 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 223 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 224 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 226 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 227 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 228 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 232 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 234 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 238 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 239 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 240 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 241 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 242 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 243 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 244 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 245 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 246 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 247 | 0% | 97% | |
| 248 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 249 | 8% | 97% | |
| 250 | 0% | 89% | |
| 251 | 0% | 89% | |
| 252 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 254 | 1.2% | 89% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 256 | 0% | 87% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 258 | 0% | 87% | |
| 259 | 0.3% | 87% | |
| 260 | 1.3% | 87% | |
| 261 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 263 | 0% | 85% | |
| 264 | 0% | 85% | |
| 265 | 0% | 85% | |
| 266 | 0% | 85% | |
| 267 | 0% | 85% | |
| 268 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 269 | 0% | 85% | |
| 270 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 271 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 272 | 7% | 85% | |
| 273 | 53% | 78% | Median |
| 274 | 1.5% | 24% | |
| 275 | 3% | 23% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 277 | 0.2% | 19% | |
| 278 | 0.3% | 19% | |
| 279 | 1.4% | 19% | |
| 280 | 0.2% | 17% | |
| 281 | 1.4% | 17% | |
| 282 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 284 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 285 | 0% | 15% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 288 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 289 | 0.8% | 14% | |
| 290 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 291 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 293 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 294 | 0.4% | 11% | |
| 295 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 296 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 297 | 4% | 11% | |
| 298 | 0% | 7% | |
| 299 | 1.5% | 7% | |
| 300 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 302 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 303 | 0% | 5% | |
| 304 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 305 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 306 | 0% | 4% | |
| 307 | 0% | 4% | |
| 308 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 309 | 0% | 3% | |
| 310 | 0% | 3% | |
| 311 | 0% | 3% | |
| 312 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 313 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 314 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 315 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 316 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 317 | 0% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 318 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 319 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 320 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 322 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 323 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 331 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 220 | 0% | 100% | |
| 221 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 223 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 224 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 226 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 227 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 228 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 232 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 234 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 238 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 239 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 240 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 241 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 242 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 243 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 244 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 245 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 246 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 247 | 0% | 97% | |
| 248 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 249 | 8% | 97% | |
| 250 | 0% | 89% | |
| 251 | 0% | 89% | |
| 252 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 254 | 1.2% | 89% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 256 | 0% | 87% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 258 | 0% | 87% | |
| 259 | 0.3% | 87% | |
| 260 | 1.3% | 87% | |
| 261 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 263 | 0% | 85% | |
| 264 | 0% | 85% | |
| 265 | 0% | 85% | |
| 266 | 0% | 85% | |
| 267 | 0% | 85% | |
| 268 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 269 | 0% | 85% | |
| 270 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 271 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 272 | 7% | 85% | |
| 273 | 53% | 78% | Median |
| 274 | 1.5% | 24% | |
| 275 | 3% | 23% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 277 | 0.2% | 19% | |
| 278 | 0.3% | 19% | |
| 279 | 1.4% | 19% | |
| 280 | 0.2% | 17% | |
| 281 | 1.4% | 17% | |
| 282 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 284 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 285 | 0% | 15% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 288 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 289 | 0.8% | 14% | |
| 290 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 291 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 293 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 294 | 0.4% | 11% | |
| 295 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 296 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 297 | 4% | 11% | |
| 298 | 0% | 7% | |
| 299 | 1.5% | 7% | |
| 300 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 302 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 303 | 0% | 5% | |
| 304 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 305 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 306 | 0% | 4% | |
| 307 | 0% | 4% | |
| 308 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 309 | 0% | 3% | |
| 310 | 0% | 3% | |
| 311 | 0% | 3% | |
| 312 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 313 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 314 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 315 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 316 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 317 | 0% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 318 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 319 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 320 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 322 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 323 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 331 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 218 | 0% | 100% | |
| 219 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 220 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 221 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 222 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 223 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 224 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 225 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 226 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 228 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 232 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 233 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 234 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 237 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 238 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 239 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 240 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 241 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 242 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 243 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 244 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 246 | 0% | 98% | |
| 247 | 0% | 98% | |
| 248 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 249 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 250 | 0% | 96% | |
| 251 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 252 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 254 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 255 | 0% | 94% | |
| 256 | 0% | 94% | |
| 257 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 258 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 259 | 0% | 94% | |
| 260 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 261 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 262 | 0% | 92% | |
| 263 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 264 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 265 | 4% | 91% | |
| 266 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 267 | 0.6% | 87% | |
| 268 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 269 | 0.9% | 87% | |
| 270 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 272 | 0.8% | 85% | |
| 273 | 1.4% | 84% | |
| 274 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 275 | 1.3% | 83% | |
| 276 | 0% | 82% | |
| 277 | 0.3% | 82% | |
| 278 | 0.2% | 81% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 81% | |
| 280 | 1.0% | 81% | |
| 281 | 54% | 80% | Median |
| 282 | 0.2% | 26% | |
| 283 | 0.2% | 25% | |
| 284 | 7% | 25% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 18% | |
| 286 | 3% | 18% | |
| 287 | 0% | 15% | |
| 288 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 290 | 1.2% | 14% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 292 | 0% | 13% | |
| 293 | 0.6% | 13% | |
| 294 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 295 | 0% | 12% | |
| 296 | 0% | 12% | |
| 297 | 0% | 12% | |
| 298 | 0.5% | 12% | |
| 299 | 0% | 12% | |
| 300 | 0.3% | 12% | |
| 301 | 0% | 11% | Last Result |
| 302 | 7% | 11% | |
| 303 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 304 | 0% | 3% | |
| 305 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 306 | 0% | 3% | |
| 307 | 0% | 3% | |
| 308 | 0% | 3% | |
| 309 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 310 | 0% | 2% | |
| 311 | 2% | 2% | |
| 312 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 322 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 325 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 330 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 215 | 0% | 100% | |
| 216 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 217 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 218 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 219 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 220 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 221 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 222 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 223 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 225 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 226 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 227 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 228 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 230 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 232 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 234 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 236 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 237 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 238 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 239 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 241 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 242 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 243 | 0% | 98% | |
| 244 | 0% | 98% | |
| 245 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 246 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 247 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 248 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 249 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 250 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 251 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 252 | 0% | 94% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 254 | 0% | 94% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 257 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 258 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 259 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 260 | 0% | 92% | |
| 261 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 262 | 0% | 91% | |
| 263 | 4% | 91% | |
| 264 | 0.6% | 87% | |
| 265 | 0.6% | 87% | |
| 266 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 267 | 0.8% | 86% | |
| 268 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 269 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 270 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 272 | 0% | 84% | |
| 273 | 1.4% | 84% | |
| 274 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 275 | 1.5% | 83% | |
| 276 | 0.2% | 81% | |
| 277 | 0.4% | 81% | |
| 278 | 0.5% | 81% | |
| 279 | 53% | 80% | Median |
| 280 | 0.4% | 27% | |
| 281 | 1.4% | 27% | |
| 282 | 7% | 25% | |
| 283 | 0% | 18% | |
| 284 | 3% | 18% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 286 | 1.2% | 15% | |
| 287 | 0% | 13% | |
| 288 | 0% | 13% | |
| 289 | 0% | 13% | |
| 290 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 291 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 292 | 0% | 13% | |
| 293 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 295 | 0% | 12% | |
| 296 | 0.3% | 12% | |
| 297 | 0% | 12% | Last Result |
| 298 | 0% | 12% | |
| 299 | 0% | 12% | |
| 300 | 7% | 12% | |
| 301 | 0% | 4% | |
| 302 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 303 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 304 | 0% | 3% | |
| 305 | 0% | 3% | |
| 306 | 0% | 3% | |
| 307 | 0% | 3% | |
| 308 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 309 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 310 | 2% | 2% | |
| 311 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 322 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 325 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 328 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 182 | 0% | 100% | |
| 183 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 184 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 185 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 186 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 187 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 188 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 189 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 191 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 192 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 193 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 194 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 195 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 196 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 197 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 198 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 199 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 200 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 201 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 202 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 203 | 0% | 97% | |
| 204 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 209 | 0% | 95% | |
| 210 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 211 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 212 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 213 | 0% | 94% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 215 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 216 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 217 | 0% | 92% | |
| 218 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 220 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 221 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 222 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 223 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 225 | 0% | 90% | |
| 226 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 227 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 228 | 4% | 89% | |
| 229 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 231 | 2% | 85% | |
| 232 | 0.2% | 82% | |
| 233 | 1.2% | 82% | |
| 234 | 53% | 81% | Median |
| 235 | 0.6% | 28% | |
| 236 | 9% | 27% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 18% | |
| 238 | 0.2% | 18% | |
| 239 | 3% | 18% | |
| 240 | 0% | 15% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 242 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 243 | 1.2% | 14% | |
| 244 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 245 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 246 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 247 | 0% | 12% | |
| 248 | 0% | 12% | |
| 249 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 251 | 7% | 12% | |
| 252 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 253 | 0% | 5% | |
| 254 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 255 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 256 | 0% | 4% | |
| 257 | 0% | 4% | |
| 258 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 260 | 0% | 3% | |
| 261 | 0% | 3% | |
| 262 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 263 | 0% | 2% | |
| 264 | 0% | 2% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 266 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 267 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 269 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 275 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 278 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 280 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 281 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 285 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Change UK
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 179 | 0% | 100% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 182 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 183 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 185 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 186 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 188 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 189 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 190 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 191 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 192 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 193 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 194 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 195 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 196 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 197 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 198 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 199 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 200 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 201 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 202 | 0% | 96% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 208 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 209 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 211 | 0% | 94% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 213 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 215 | 1.1% | 92% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 217 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 218 | 0% | 90% | |
| 219 | 0.4% | 90% | |
| 220 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 221 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 223 | 0% | 90% | |
| 224 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 226 | 4% | 89% | |
| 227 | 0.5% | 85% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 229 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 230 | 0.7% | 84% | |
| 231 | 4% | 84% | |
| 232 | 53% | 80% | Median |
| 233 | 0.2% | 27% | |
| 234 | 7% | 27% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 20% | |
| 236 | 1.4% | 20% | |
| 237 | 3% | 18% | |
| 238 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 239 | 1.2% | 15% | |
| 240 | 0.5% | 14% | |
| 241 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 242 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 243 | 0% | 13% | |
| 244 | 0% | 13% | |
| 245 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 246 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 247 | 0% | 12% | |
| 248 | 0% | 12% | |
| 249 | 7% | 12% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 251 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 252 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 253 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 254 | 0% | 4% | |
| 255 | 0% | 4% | |
| 256 | 0% | 4% | |
| 257 | 0% | 4% | |
| 258 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 260 | 0% | 3% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 262 | 1.2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 263 | 0% | 2% | |
| 264 | 0% | 2% | |
| 265 | 2% | 2% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 267 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 269 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 271 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 275 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 277 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 278 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 279 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 280 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 281 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 285 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 179 | 0% | 100% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 182 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 183 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 185 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 186 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 188 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 189 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 190 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 191 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 192 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 193 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 194 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 195 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 196 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 197 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 198 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 199 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 200 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 201 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 202 | 0% | 96% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 208 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 209 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 211 | 0% | 94% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 213 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 215 | 1.1% | 92% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 217 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 218 | 0% | 90% | |
| 219 | 0.4% | 90% | |
| 220 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 221 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 223 | 0% | 90% | |
| 224 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 226 | 4% | 89% | |
| 227 | 0.5% | 85% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 229 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 230 | 0.7% | 84% | |
| 231 | 4% | 84% | |
| 232 | 53% | 80% | Median |
| 233 | 0.2% | 27% | |
| 234 | 7% | 27% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 20% | |
| 236 | 1.4% | 20% | |
| 237 | 3% | 18% | |
| 238 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 239 | 1.2% | 15% | |
| 240 | 0.5% | 14% | |
| 241 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 242 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 243 | 0% | 13% | |
| 244 | 0% | 13% | |
| 245 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 246 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 247 | 0% | 12% | |
| 248 | 0% | 12% | |
| 249 | 7% | 12% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 251 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 252 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 253 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 254 | 0% | 4% | |
| 255 | 0% | 4% | |
| 256 | 0% | 4% | |
| 257 | 0% | 4% | |
| 258 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 260 | 0% | 3% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 262 | 1.2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 263 | 0% | 2% | |
| 264 | 0% | 2% | |
| 265 | 2% | 2% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 267 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 269 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 271 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 275 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 277 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 278 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 279 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 280 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 281 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 285 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: BMG Research
- Commissioner(s): The Independent
- Fieldwork period: 3–6 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1504
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.76%