Opinion Poll by ComRes for Britain Elects, 4–6 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 31.0% 29.7–32.4% 29.3–32.7% 29.0–33.1% 28.4–33.7%
Labour Party 40.0% 27.0% 25.7–28.3% 25.4–28.7% 25.1–29.0% 24.5–29.6%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.6–21.5% 18.3–21.8% 17.8–22.4%
Brexit Party 0.0% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 271 256–284 242–288 231–300 219–311
Labour Party 262 203 194–219 181–227 180–243 172–252
Liberal Democrats 12 74 67–77 65–78 64–81 61–85
Brexit Party 0 31 23–43 22–44 20–47 13–50
Scottish National Party 35 46 38–49 38–51 37–51 35–52
Green Party 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Plaid Cymru 4 4 4–9 4–9 4–9 3–12
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0.1% 100%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.8%  
213 0% 99.7%  
214 0% 99.7%  
215 0% 99.7%  
216 0% 99.7%  
217 0% 99.7%  
218 0.1% 99.7%  
219 0.2% 99.6%  
220 0% 99.5%  
221 0% 99.4%  
222 0.1% 99.4%  
223 0.1% 99.4%  
224 0% 99.3%  
225 0.4% 99.2%  
226 0% 98.9%  
227 0% 98.9%  
228 0.1% 98.8%  
229 0% 98.7%  
230 0.1% 98.7%  
231 2% 98.6%  
232 0% 97%  
233 0.1% 97%  
234 0.1% 97%  
235 0% 96%  
236 0.3% 96%  
237 0% 96%  
238 0% 96%  
239 0.5% 96%  
240 0.2% 96%  
241 0.1% 95%  
242 0.6% 95%  
243 0.4% 95%  
244 0.1% 94%  
245 0.7% 94%  
246 0.1% 93%  
247 0.7% 93%  
248 0% 93%  
249 0% 93%  
250 0.4% 93%  
251 1.1% 92%  
252 0.1% 91%  
253 0.2% 91%  
254 0% 91%  
255 0% 91%  
256 3% 91%  
257 0.3% 88%  
258 1.4% 88%  
259 2% 87%  
260 3% 85%  
261 2% 82%  
262 0.5% 80%  
263 0.4% 79%  
264 7% 79%  
265 0.7% 72%  
266 8% 71%  
267 1.2% 63%  
268 2% 62%  
269 4% 60%  
270 0.8% 56%  
271 20% 55% Median
272 1.3% 35%  
273 4% 34%  
274 13% 31%  
275 0.2% 18%  
276 1.4% 18%  
277 4% 16%  
278 0.1% 13%  
279 0.9% 13%  
280 0.2% 12%  
281 0.7% 11%  
282 0.5% 11%  
283 0.1% 10%  
284 0.1% 10%  
285 3% 10%  
286 1.0% 7%  
287 0% 6%  
288 1.3% 6%  
289 0.2% 4%  
290 0.3% 4%  
291 0.1% 4%  
292 0% 4%  
293 0% 4%  
294 0.1% 4%  
295 0.6% 4%  
296 0% 3%  
297 0% 3%  
298 0% 3%  
299 0.1% 3%  
300 1.4% 3%  
301 0% 1.4%  
302 0% 1.4%  
303 0.1% 1.4%  
304 0% 1.3%  
305 0.3% 1.2%  
306 0% 0.9%  
307 0.1% 0.9%  
308 0% 0.9%  
309 0.1% 0.9%  
310 0% 0.8%  
311 0.6% 0.8%  
312 0% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1% Last Result
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0.1% 100%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.8%  
160 0.1% 99.8%  
161 0% 99.8%  
162 0% 99.7%  
163 0% 99.7%  
164 0% 99.7%  
165 0% 99.7%  
166 0% 99.7%  
167 0% 99.7%  
168 0% 99.6%  
169 0% 99.6%  
170 0% 99.6%  
171 0% 99.6%  
172 0% 99.5%  
173 0.1% 99.5%  
174 0.2% 99.4%  
175 0.2% 99.3%  
176 0% 99.0%  
177 0.2% 99.0%  
178 0.7% 98.8%  
179 0.1% 98%  
180 1.4% 98%  
181 2% 97%  
182 0% 95%  
183 0.3% 95%  
184 0.3% 95%  
185 0.3% 94%  
186 0.6% 94%  
187 0.2% 93%  
188 0.1% 93%  
189 0.2% 93%  
190 0.7% 93%  
191 0.1% 92%  
192 0.3% 92%  
193 0.1% 92%  
194 4% 92%  
195 2% 88%  
196 0.2% 86%  
197 20% 85%  
198 2% 66%  
199 7% 64%  
200 1.3% 57%  
201 0.1% 56%  
202 0.3% 56%  
203 10% 56% Median
204 6% 45%  
205 0.4% 39%  
206 5% 39%  
207 0.1% 34%  
208 0.5% 34%  
209 0.2% 33%  
210 3% 33%  
211 0.5% 31%  
212 2% 30%  
213 0.8% 28%  
214 2% 27%  
215 1.1% 25%  
216 4% 24%  
217 1.1% 20%  
218 1.5% 19%  
219 10% 17%  
220 0.4% 8%  
221 0% 8%  
222 0.1% 8%  
223 1.2% 7%  
224 0.4% 6%  
225 0.7% 6%  
226 0.1% 5%  
227 0.1% 5%  
228 0% 5%  
229 0.3% 5%  
230 0.2% 5%  
231 0% 4%  
232 0.1% 4%  
233 0% 4%  
234 0% 4%  
235 0.1% 4%  
236 0% 4%  
237 0% 4%  
238 0.1% 4%  
239 0% 4%  
240 0% 4%  
241 0.5% 4%  
242 0.1% 3%  
243 2% 3%  
244 0% 1.2%  
245 0.4% 1.2%  
246 0.2% 0.9%  
247 0.1% 0.7%  
248 0% 0.6%  
249 0.1% 0.6%  
250 0% 0.5%  
251 0% 0.5%  
252 0.2% 0.5%  
253 0.1% 0.3%  
254 0.1% 0.2%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1% Last Result
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.7% 99.8%  
62 0.1% 99.2%  
63 0.1% 99.1%  
64 4% 99.0%  
65 4% 95%  
66 0.4% 92%  
67 4% 91%  
68 2% 87%  
69 5% 84%  
70 11% 79%  
71 4% 68%  
72 2% 64%  
73 6% 63%  
74 7% 57% Median
75 7% 50%  
76 30% 43%  
77 5% 12%  
78 3% 7%  
79 0.4% 4%  
80 0.3% 4%  
81 1.0% 3%  
82 1.1% 2%  
83 0.3% 1.3%  
84 0.4% 0.9%  
85 0.1% 0.5%  
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.7%  
14 0% 99.3%  
15 1.0% 99.3%  
16 0% 98%  
17 0.2% 98%  
18 0.2% 98%  
19 0.1% 98%  
20 0.4% 98%  
21 0.6% 97%  
22 6% 97%  
23 0.7% 91%  
24 2% 90%  
25 2% 88%  
26 6% 85%  
27 5% 79%  
28 3% 74%  
29 11% 71%  
30 7% 59%  
31 4% 52% Median
32 1.1% 48%  
33 0.2% 47%  
34 0.3% 47%  
35 0.3% 47%  
36 1.5% 46%  
37 5% 45%  
38 3% 40%  
39 5% 37%  
40 0.4% 31%  
41 19% 31%  
42 2% 12%  
43 3% 10%  
44 2% 7%  
45 0.7% 5%  
46 2% 4%  
47 0.4% 3%  
48 0.2% 2%  
49 1.5% 2%  
50 0% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.4%  
53 0% 0.4%  
54 0% 0.4%  
55 0% 0.3%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.1% 99.8%  
34 0.1% 99.7%  
35 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
36 0.1% 99.5%  
37 3% 99.4%  
38 7% 97%  
39 3% 90%  
40 0.2% 86%  
41 1.2% 86%  
42 20% 85%  
43 4% 65%  
44 0.9% 61%  
45 3% 60%  
46 8% 57% Median
47 0% 49%  
48 28% 49%  
49 15% 21%  
50 0.2% 6%  
51 5% 5%  
52 0.1% 0.5%  
53 0.4% 0.4%  
54 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 88% 100% Last Result, Median
2 12% 12%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.5% 100%  
4 61% 99.5% Last Result, Median
5 6% 38%  
6 2% 32%  
7 12% 30%  
8 6% 18%  
9 10% 12%  
10 1.0% 2%  
11 0.1% 1.1%  
12 0.6% 1.0%  
13 0.2% 0.4%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 328 58% 317–345 307–357 295–368 283–381
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 343 93% 331–352 317–360 307–364 293–375
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 321 39% 309–341 298–350 291–364 278–375
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 318 25% 309–332 295–340 280–350 275–356
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 313 9% 305–324 288–334 276–345 268–350
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 303 5% 285–314 273–324 261–336 249–348
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 280 1.2% 270–297 263–310 251–323 244–333
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 275 0.6% 264–293 254–304 245–319 239–326
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 275 0.1% 260–292 248–294 235–304 226–316
Conservative Party 317 271 0% 256–284 242–288 231–300 219–311
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 254 0% 243–271 236–283 229–292 222–304
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 248 0% 239–267 228–275 223–288 216–299
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 209 0% 199–223 189–233 185–247 179–257
Labour Party 262 203 0% 194–219 181–227 180–243 172–252

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0.1% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.5% 99.7%  
284 0.1% 99.2%  
285 0% 99.2%  
286 0% 99.2%  
287 0% 99.2%  
288 0% 99.2%  
289 0% 99.1%  
290 0.1% 99.1%  
291 0% 99.1%  
292 0% 99.1%  
293 0% 99.1%  
294 0.6% 99.0%  
295 1.3% 98%  
296 0.3% 97%  
297 0% 97%  
298 0.1% 97%  
299 0% 97%  
300 0.1% 97%  
301 0.6% 97%  
302 0% 96%  
303 0% 96%  
304 0.3% 96%  
305 0.2% 96%  
306 0.4% 95%  
307 0.8% 95%  
308 0.2% 94%  
309 0.1% 94%  
310 0.1% 94%  
311 0.1% 94%  
312 0.4% 94%  
313 0.1% 93% Last Result
314 3% 93%  
315 0.3% 91%  
316 0.2% 90%  
317 2% 90%  
318 0.6% 88%  
319 20% 88%  
320 2% 68%  
321 1.3% 66%  
322 2% 65%  
323 1.4% 64%  
324 2% 62%  
325 2% 60%  
326 6% 58% Majority
327 0.2% 52% Median
328 11% 52%  
329 0.9% 41%  
330 2% 40%  
331 6% 38%  
332 2% 32%  
333 0.4% 30%  
334 1.0% 30%  
335 5% 29%  
336 0.5% 24%  
337 1.5% 24%  
338 1.0% 22%  
339 4% 21%  
340 0.8% 17%  
341 0.1% 16%  
342 0% 16%  
343 0.1% 16%  
344 0.6% 16%  
345 6% 15%  
346 1.0% 10%  
347 0.3% 9%  
348 0.2% 8%  
349 0.1% 8%  
350 0.2% 8%  
351 0.9% 8%  
352 0% 7%  
353 0.1% 7%  
354 0.7% 7%  
355 0.8% 6%  
356 0.2% 5%  
357 0.6% 5%  
358 0% 5%  
359 0.1% 5%  
360 0.1% 5%  
361 0% 4%  
362 0% 4%  
363 0.1% 4%  
364 0.1% 4%  
365 0.1% 4%  
366 0.1% 4%  
367 0% 4%  
368 2% 4%  
369 0.1% 2%  
370 0.5% 2%  
371 0.1% 1.3%  
372 0% 1.2%  
373 0% 1.2%  
374 0.1% 1.2%  
375 0.4% 1.1%  
376 0% 0.7%  
377 0.1% 0.7%  
378 0% 0.6%  
379 0.1% 0.6%  
380 0% 0.5%  
381 0% 0.5%  
382 0.1% 0.5%  
383 0% 0.3%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0.2% 99.8%  
293 0.2% 99.6%  
294 0% 99.4%  
295 0% 99.4%  
296 0% 99.4%  
297 0% 99.4%  
298 0% 99.4%  
299 0% 99.4%  
300 0% 99.3%  
301 0% 99.3%  
302 0.4% 99.3%  
303 0.1% 99.0%  
304 0.1% 98.9%  
305 0.1% 98.8%  
306 0% 98.7%  
307 2% 98.7%  
308 0.1% 97%  
309 0.3% 97%  
310 0.2% 96%  
311 0% 96%  
312 0% 96%  
313 0% 96%  
314 0% 96%  
315 0.9% 96%  
316 0% 95%  
317 0.4% 95%  
318 0% 95%  
319 0.2% 95%  
320 0.4% 95%  
321 0.1% 94%  
322 1.0% 94%  
323 0.2% 93%  
324 0% 93%  
325 0% 93%  
326 0% 93% Majority
327 1.5% 93%  
328 1.0% 91%  
329 0.2% 90% Last Result
330 0.2% 90%  
331 3% 90%  
332 0.6% 87%  
333 4% 87%  
334 3% 83%  
335 2% 80%  
336 9% 78%  
337 0.5% 69%  
338 7% 68%  
339 0.2% 62%  
340 2% 62%  
341 4% 60%  
342 3% 56%  
343 4% 52%  
344 2% 49%  
345 2% 46% Median
346 0.1% 44%  
347 20% 44%  
348 1.2% 24%  
349 2% 23%  
350 6% 21%  
351 4% 15%  
352 0.4% 10%  
353 0.2% 10%  
354 0.3% 10%  
355 0.2% 9%  
356 1.2% 9%  
357 0.4% 8%  
358 1.5% 8%  
359 0.1% 6%  
360 2% 6%  
361 0.1% 4%  
362 0.2% 4%  
363 0.1% 4%  
364 2% 3%  
365 0% 2%  
366 0.1% 2%  
367 0.2% 2%  
368 0.1% 2%  
369 0% 1.5%  
370 0% 1.4%  
371 0% 1.4%  
372 0.5% 1.4%  
373 0.3% 0.9%  
374 0.1% 0.6%  
375 0% 0.5%  
376 0% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.5%  
378 0% 0.4%  
379 0% 0.4%  
380 0% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.4%  
382 0.1% 0.3%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.7%  
274 0% 99.7%  
275 0% 99.7%  
276 0% 99.7%  
277 0% 99.7%  
278 0.5% 99.7%  
279 0% 99.2%  
280 0% 99.2%  
281 0% 99.2%  
282 0% 99.1%  
283 0% 99.1%  
284 0% 99.1%  
285 0% 99.1%  
286 0% 99.1%  
287 0% 99.0%  
288 0.5% 99.0%  
289 0% 98%  
290 0.2% 98%  
291 1.4% 98%  
292 0.7% 97%  
293 0% 96%  
294 0% 96%  
295 0.1% 96%  
296 0.2% 96%  
297 0.3% 96%  
298 0.6% 95%  
299 0.3% 95%  
300 0.2% 94%  
301 0.2% 94%  
302 0.1% 94%  
303 0.4% 94%  
304 0.1% 94%  
305 0.2% 94%  
306 0.1% 93%  
307 0.2% 93%  
308 0.3% 93%  
309 5% 93% Last Result
310 0.5% 88%  
311 1.5% 88%  
312 0.4% 86%  
313 0.5% 86%  
314 2% 85%  
315 19% 84%  
316 1.4% 65%  
317 0.5% 63%  
318 2% 63%  
319 6% 61%  
320 2% 54%  
321 5% 53%  
322 5% 48%  
323 0.1% 43% Median
324 3% 42%  
325 0.2% 40%  
326 2% 39% Majority
327 6% 37%  
328 2% 32%  
329 0.1% 29%  
330 1.4% 29%  
331 5% 28%  
332 3% 23%  
333 1.4% 20%  
334 0.4% 19%  
335 2% 18%  
336 0.5% 16%  
337 1.0% 16%  
338 0.4% 15%  
339 0.1% 14%  
340 0.2% 14%  
341 6% 14%  
342 0.3% 8%  
343 0.1% 8%  
344 0.9% 8%  
345 0% 7%  
346 0% 7%  
347 0% 7%  
348 1.2% 7%  
349 0% 6%  
350 0.7% 6%  
351 0.1% 5%  
352 0.2% 5%  
353 0.2% 5%  
354 0% 5%  
355 0.1% 5%  
356 0.1% 4%  
357 0.1% 4%  
358 0.1% 4%  
359 0.1% 4%  
360 0% 4%  
361 0.1% 4%  
362 0% 4%  
363 0.1% 4%  
364 2% 4%  
365 0.1% 2%  
366 0.6% 2%  
367 0% 1.1%  
368 0% 1.1%  
369 0.1% 1.1%  
370 0% 1.0%  
371 0.4% 1.0%  
372 0.1% 0.6%  
373 0% 0.5%  
374 0% 0.5%  
375 0.2% 0.5%  
376 0% 0.4%  
377 0% 0.4%  
378 0% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.3%  
380 0.1% 0.3%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0.1% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0.1% 100%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.7%  
266 0% 99.7%  
267 0% 99.7%  
268 0% 99.7%  
269 0% 99.7%  
270 0% 99.7%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0% 99.6%  
273 0% 99.6%  
274 0% 99.6%  
275 0.2% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.4%  
277 0% 99.4%  
278 0.4% 99.3%  
279 0% 98.9%  
280 2% 98.9%  
281 0.1% 97%  
282 0.2% 97%  
283 0.1% 97%  
284 0.1% 97%  
285 0% 97%  
286 0% 97%  
287 0.1% 96%  
288 0.1% 96%  
289 0% 96%  
290 0% 96%  
291 0.1% 96%  
292 0.7% 96%  
293 0.4% 96%  
294 0.1% 95%  
295 0.3% 95%  
296 0.2% 95%  
297 0.3% 95%  
298 0.8% 94%  
299 0.4% 94%  
300 0.7% 93%  
301 0% 93%  
302 0.6% 93%  
303 0% 92%  
304 0.1% 92%  
305 0.4% 92%  
306 0.1% 91%  
307 0.8% 91%  
308 0% 90%  
309 3% 90%  
310 0.3% 87%  
311 3% 87%  
312 0.5% 84%  
313 1.2% 83%  
314 0.8% 82%  
315 2% 81%  
316 9% 79%  
317 19% 70%  
318 3% 51%  
319 2% 48%  
320 0.3% 46%  
321 13% 46% Median
322 1.0% 33%  
323 0.8% 32%  
324 4% 31%  
325 3% 27%  
326 8% 25% Majority
327 0.2% 16%  
328 0.4% 16%  
329 1.0% 16%  
330 2% 15%  
331 2% 13%  
332 4% 11%  
333 0.3% 8%  
334 0.3% 8%  
335 0.8% 7%  
336 0.1% 6%  
337 0.3% 6%  
338 0.2% 6%  
339 0.3% 6%  
340 1.1% 6%  
341 0.1% 4%  
342 0% 4%  
343 0.7% 4%  
344 0.5% 4%  
345 0% 3%  
346 0% 3%  
347 0.1% 3%  
348 0.3% 3%  
349 0.1% 3%  
350 1.4% 3%  
351 0% 1.3%  
352 0.1% 1.3%  
353 0.1% 1.1%  
354 0% 1.1%  
355 0.5% 1.1%  
356 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0% 0.3%  
359 0% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0.1% 100%  
258 0.1% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.7%  
262 0% 99.7%  
263 0% 99.7%  
264 0% 99.7%  
265 0% 99.7%  
266 0% 99.7%  
267 0.1% 99.6%  
268 0.2% 99.6%  
269 0% 99.4%  
270 0% 99.4%  
271 0% 99.4%  
272 0% 99.3%  
273 0.1% 99.3%  
274 0.5% 99.2%  
275 0% 98.8%  
276 2% 98.7%  
277 0.1% 97%  
278 0% 97%  
279 0.1% 97%  
280 0% 97%  
281 0% 96%  
282 0% 96%  
283 0.1% 96%  
284 0.5% 96%  
285 0.1% 96%  
286 0.1% 96%  
287 0% 96%  
288 0.8% 96%  
289 0% 95%  
290 0.1% 95%  
291 0.8% 95%  
292 0.1% 94%  
293 0.7% 94%  
294 0% 93%  
295 0.5% 93%  
296 0.7% 93%  
297 0.3% 92%  
298 0.2% 92%  
299 0% 91%  
300 0.9% 91%  
301 0.1% 91%  
302 0% 90%  
303 0.1% 90%  
304 0.3% 90%  
305 3% 90%  
306 0.2% 87%  
307 4% 87%  
308 2% 83%  
309 2% 80%  
310 0.4% 78%  
311 2% 78%  
312 10% 76%  
313 19% 66%  
314 8% 47%  
315 2% 39%  
316 0.5% 36%  
317 7% 36% Median
318 0.6% 29%  
319 1.2% 28%  
320 5% 27%  
321 0.5% 23%  
322 9% 22%  
323 0.8% 13%  
324 3% 12%  
325 0.2% 9%  
326 2% 9% Majority
327 0.1% 7%  
328 0.3% 7%  
329 0.7% 7%  
330 0.3% 6%  
331 0% 6%  
332 0.1% 6%  
333 0% 6%  
334 0.6% 5%  
335 0% 5%  
336 1.0% 5%  
337 0% 4%  
338 0.7% 4%  
339 0.1% 3%  
340 0% 3%  
341 0% 3%  
342 0% 3%  
343 0% 3%  
344 0.3% 3%  
345 0.1% 3%  
346 1.4% 2%  
347 0.2% 1.1%  
348 0.1% 1.0%  
349 0.1% 0.9%  
350 0.5% 0.7%  
351 0% 0.3%  
352 0% 0.3% Last Result
353 0% 0.3%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.2%  
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.8%  
243 0% 99.8%  
244 0% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0% 99.7%  
247 0% 99.7%  
248 0.1% 99.7%  
249 0% 99.5%  
250 0.1% 99.5%  
251 0% 99.4%  
252 0.1% 99.4%  
253 0% 99.3%  
254 0% 99.3%  
255 0.4% 99.3%  
256 0.1% 98.9%  
257 0% 98.8%  
258 0% 98.8%  
259 0.1% 98.8%  
260 0.5% 98.6%  
261 2% 98%  
262 0% 96%  
263 0% 96%  
264 0.1% 96%  
265 0.1% 96%  
266 0.1% 96%  
267 0.2% 96%  
268 0% 96%  
269 0% 96%  
270 0.1% 96%  
271 0% 95%  
272 0.2% 95%  
273 0.5% 95%  
274 0.1% 95%  
275 0.8% 95%  
276 0.8% 94%  
277 0.1% 93%  
278 0% 93%  
279 0.9% 93%  
280 0.1% 92%  
281 0.1% 92%  
282 0.1% 92%  
283 0.3% 92%  
284 0% 91%  
285 1.2% 91%  
286 6% 90%  
287 0% 84%  
288 0.1% 84%  
289 0.1% 84%  
290 0.1% 84%  
291 5% 84%  
292 0.3% 79%  
293 2% 79%  
294 0.4% 76%  
295 0.9% 76%  
296 4% 75%  
297 0.4% 70%  
298 2% 70%  
299 0.2% 68%  
300 7% 68%  
301 0.5% 61%  
302 1.0% 60% Median
303 11% 59%  
304 0.2% 48%  
305 8% 48%  
306 2% 40%  
307 0.7% 38%  
308 1.0% 37%  
309 2% 36%  
310 0.6% 34%  
311 1.4% 33%  
312 20% 32%  
313 0.7% 12%  
314 2% 12%  
315 0.3% 10%  
316 0.3% 9%  
317 3% 9% Last Result
318 0.1% 7%  
319 0.4% 7%  
320 0.1% 6%  
321 0.1% 6%  
322 0.1% 6%  
323 0.2% 6%  
324 0.8% 6%  
325 0.4% 5%  
326 0.1% 5% Majority
327 0.3% 4%  
328 0% 4%  
329 0% 4%  
330 0.6% 4%  
331 0.1% 3%  
332 0% 3%  
333 0.1% 3%  
334 0% 3%  
335 0.3% 3%  
336 1.3% 3%  
337 0.6% 2%  
338 0% 1.0%  
339 0% 0.9%  
340 0% 0.9%  
341 0% 0.9%  
342 0% 0.9%  
343 0% 0.8%  
344 0% 0.8%  
345 0% 0.8%  
346 0% 0.8%  
347 0.1% 0.8%  
348 0.5% 0.8%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0.1% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
231 0% 100%  
232 0.1% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.8%  
237 0% 99.8%  
238 0% 99.8%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.7%  
243 0% 99.7%  
244 0.5% 99.7%  
245 0.1% 99.2%  
246 0% 99.1%  
247 0% 99.0%  
248 0% 99.0%  
249 1.3% 99.0%  
250 0% 98%  
251 0.5% 98%  
252 0.1% 97%  
253 0% 97%  
254 0% 97%  
255 0.3% 97%  
256 0% 97%  
257 0.5% 97%  
258 0.2% 96%  
259 0.8% 96%  
260 0.1% 95%  
261 0% 95%  
262 0.1% 95%  
263 0.5% 95%  
264 0.2% 95%  
265 0.4% 94%  
266 0.2% 94%  
267 0.3% 94%  
268 3% 94%  
269 0.6% 91%  
270 0.3% 90%  
271 0.2% 90%  
272 0.2% 90%  
273 2% 89%  
274 0.7% 88%  
275 0.2% 87%  
276 2% 87%  
277 21% 85%  
278 8% 64% Last Result
279 2% 56%  
280 6% 54%  
281 2% 48% Median
282 0.4% 47%  
283 8% 46%  
284 0.2% 38%  
285 2% 38%  
286 2% 36%  
287 4% 34%  
288 0.1% 29%  
289 0.8% 29%  
290 6% 28%  
291 0.7% 23%  
292 0.3% 22%  
293 3% 22%  
294 2% 19%  
295 0.2% 17%  
296 0% 17%  
297 7% 17%  
298 0.1% 9%  
299 0.4% 9%  
300 0% 9%  
301 0% 9%  
302 0.3% 9%  
303 1.0% 8%  
304 0% 7%  
305 0% 7%  
306 1.3% 7%  
307 0.9% 6%  
308 0.1% 5%  
309 0% 5%  
310 0% 5%  
311 0.1% 5%  
312 0% 5%  
313 0% 5%  
314 0.3% 5%  
315 0% 4%  
316 0.1% 4%  
317 0.1% 4%  
318 0% 4%  
319 0% 4%  
320 0.1% 4%  
321 0.6% 4%  
322 0% 3%  
323 2% 3%  
324 0% 1.2%  
325 0% 1.2%  
326 0.4% 1.2% Majority
327 0% 0.8%  
328 0.1% 0.8%  
329 0% 0.7%  
330 0% 0.7%  
331 0.1% 0.7%  
332 0% 0.6%  
333 0.2% 0.6%  
334 0% 0.4%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.4%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.8%  
229 0% 99.8%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0% 99.8%  
233 0% 99.7%  
234 0.1% 99.7%  
235 0% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.7%  
237 0% 99.6%  
238 0% 99.6%  
239 0.5% 99.6%  
240 0% 99.1%  
241 0% 99.1%  
242 0.1% 99.0%  
243 0% 98.9%  
244 0% 98.9%  
245 2% 98.9%  
246 0.2% 97%  
247 0% 97%  
248 0% 97%  
249 0.1% 97%  
250 0.6% 97%  
251 0.1% 96%  
252 0.2% 96%  
253 0.4% 96%  
254 0.8% 95%  
255 0% 95%  
256 0.2% 95%  
257 0.2% 94%  
258 0.3% 94%  
259 0.3% 94%  
260 0.1% 94%  
261 0.4% 93%  
262 0.2% 93%  
263 3% 93%  
264 0.1% 90%  
265 0.8% 90%  
266 0.4% 89%  
267 0.6% 89%  
268 3% 88%  
269 1.1% 86%  
270 4% 84%  
271 1.1% 81%  
272 0.5% 80%  
273 24% 79%  
274 5% 55% Last Result
275 2% 51%  
276 1.1% 49%  
277 3% 48% Median
278 0.1% 44%  
279 8% 44%  
280 1.1% 36%  
281 4% 35%  
282 2% 31%  
283 7% 29%  
284 0.1% 23%  
285 0.8% 23%  
286 0.2% 22%  
287 0.3% 22%  
288 1.3% 21%  
289 2% 20%  
290 2% 18%  
291 0.7% 15%  
292 0.1% 15%  
293 6% 15%  
294 0.1% 9%  
295 0.3% 9%  
296 0% 8%  
297 0.5% 8%  
298 0.4% 8%  
299 1.5% 8%  
300 0.7% 6%  
301 0% 5%  
302 0.1% 5%  
303 0.2% 5%  
304 0.1% 5%  
305 0.1% 5%  
306 0% 5%  
307 0.4% 5%  
308 0% 4%  
309 0% 4%  
310 0.1% 4%  
311 0% 4%  
312 0.1% 4%  
313 0.1% 4%  
314 0% 4%  
315 0.1% 4%  
316 0.1% 4%  
317 0.5% 4%  
318 0.1% 3%  
319 2% 3%  
320 0.1% 1.2%  
321 0% 1.1%  
322 0.4% 1.1%  
323 0.1% 0.7%  
324 0% 0.7%  
325 0% 0.7%  
326 0.2% 0.6% Majority
327 0% 0.4%  
328 0% 0.4%  
329 0% 0.4%  
330 0% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
210 0.1% 100%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0.1% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.7%  
218 0% 99.7%  
219 0% 99.7%  
220 0% 99.7%  
221 0% 99.7%  
222 0% 99.7%  
223 0% 99.6%  
224 0% 99.6%  
225 0% 99.6%  
226 0.2% 99.6%  
227 0% 99.4%  
228 0% 99.4%  
229 0.4% 99.4%  
230 0.1% 99.0%  
231 0.1% 98.9%  
232 0% 98.9%  
233 0.1% 98.8%  
234 0% 98.8%  
235 2% 98.7%  
236 0% 97%  
237 0% 97%  
238 0% 97%  
239 0% 97%  
240 0% 97%  
241 0.1% 97%  
242 0.1% 97%  
243 0.5% 96%  
244 0% 96%  
245 0.4% 96%  
246 0% 95%  
247 0.3% 95%  
248 0.2% 95%  
249 0.8% 95%  
250 0% 94%  
251 0.6% 94%  
252 0% 94%  
253 0% 94%  
254 1.0% 93%  
255 0.1% 92%  
256 0.1% 92%  
257 0.1% 92%  
258 1.2% 92%  
259 0% 91%  
260 2% 91%  
261 0.1% 89%  
262 0.6% 88%  
263 2% 88%  
264 0.4% 86%  
265 3% 86%  
266 0.2% 83%  
267 3% 83%  
268 7% 79%  
269 0.4% 72%  
270 3% 72%  
271 0.3% 69%  
272 0.6% 69%  
273 10% 68%  
274 0.9% 58%  
275 21% 58% Median
276 0.3% 37%  
277 4% 37%  
278 6% 32%  
279 3% 27%  
280 0.2% 24%  
281 3% 24%  
282 0.7% 20%  
283 6% 20%  
284 1.1% 14%  
285 0.3% 13%  
286 1.2% 12%  
287 0.2% 11%  
288 0.1% 11%  
289 0.3% 11%  
290 0.5% 11%  
291 0.1% 10%  
292 1.2% 10%  
293 4% 9%  
294 0.4% 5%  
295 0.7% 5%  
296 0% 4%  
297 0.2% 4%  
298 0.1% 4%  
299 0.2% 4%  
300 0% 4%  
301 0.6% 4%  
302 0% 3%  
303 0.1% 3%  
304 1.4% 3%  
305 0% 2%  
306 0.1% 2%  
307 0% 2%  
308 0% 2%  
309 0.4% 1.5%  
310 0% 1.1%  
311 0.1% 1.1%  
312 0% 1.0%  
313 0% 1.0%  
314 0.1% 1.0%  
315 0% 0.9%  
316 0.5% 0.9%  
317 0.1% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2% Last Result
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0.1% 100%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.8%  
213 0% 99.7%  
214 0% 99.7%  
215 0% 99.7%  
216 0% 99.7%  
217 0% 99.7%  
218 0.1% 99.7%  
219 0.2% 99.6%  
220 0% 99.5%  
221 0% 99.4%  
222 0.1% 99.4%  
223 0.1% 99.4%  
224 0% 99.3%  
225 0.4% 99.2%  
226 0% 98.9%  
227 0% 98.9%  
228 0.1% 98.8%  
229 0% 98.7%  
230 0.1% 98.7%  
231 2% 98.6%  
232 0% 97%  
233 0.1% 97%  
234 0.1% 97%  
235 0% 96%  
236 0.3% 96%  
237 0% 96%  
238 0% 96%  
239 0.5% 96%  
240 0.2% 96%  
241 0.1% 95%  
242 0.6% 95%  
243 0.4% 95%  
244 0.1% 94%  
245 0.7% 94%  
246 0.1% 93%  
247 0.7% 93%  
248 0% 93%  
249 0% 93%  
250 0.4% 93%  
251 1.1% 92%  
252 0.1% 91%  
253 0.2% 91%  
254 0% 91%  
255 0% 91%  
256 3% 91%  
257 0.3% 88%  
258 1.4% 88%  
259 2% 87%  
260 3% 85%  
261 2% 82%  
262 0.5% 80%  
263 0.4% 79%  
264 7% 79%  
265 0.7% 72%  
266 8% 71%  
267 1.2% 63%  
268 2% 62%  
269 4% 60%  
270 0.8% 56%  
271 20% 55% Median
272 1.3% 35%  
273 4% 34%  
274 13% 31%  
275 0.2% 18%  
276 1.4% 18%  
277 4% 16%  
278 0.1% 13%  
279 0.9% 13%  
280 0.2% 12%  
281 0.7% 11%  
282 0.5% 11%  
283 0.1% 10%  
284 0.1% 10%  
285 3% 10%  
286 1.0% 7%  
287 0% 6%  
288 1.3% 6%  
289 0.2% 4%  
290 0.3% 4%  
291 0.1% 4%  
292 0% 4%  
293 0% 4%  
294 0.1% 4%  
295 0.6% 4%  
296 0% 3%  
297 0% 3%  
298 0% 3%  
299 0.1% 3%  
300 1.4% 3%  
301 0% 1.4%  
302 0% 1.4%  
303 0.1% 1.4%  
304 0% 1.3%  
305 0.3% 1.2%  
306 0% 0.9%  
307 0.1% 0.9%  
308 0% 0.9%  
309 0.1% 0.9%  
310 0% 0.8%  
311 0.6% 0.8%  
312 0% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1% Last Result
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
198 0.1% 100%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0% 99.9%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0.1% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.8%  
210 0% 99.8%  
211 0% 99.8%  
212 0% 99.8%  
213 0% 99.7%  
214 0% 99.7%  
215 0% 99.7%  
216 0% 99.7%  
217 0% 99.7%  
218 0% 99.7%  
219 0% 99.7%  
220 0% 99.7%  
221 0% 99.7%  
222 0.5% 99.6%  
223 0% 99.1%  
224 0% 99.1%  
225 0.3% 99.0%  
226 0.2% 98.8%  
227 0.3% 98.6%  
228 0.4% 98%  
229 0.6% 98%  
230 0.4% 97%  
231 1.4% 97%  
232 0.1% 95%  
233 0% 95%  
234 0.1% 95%  
235 0.2% 95%  
236 0.4% 95%  
237 0.7% 95%  
238 0% 94%  
239 0.5% 94%  
240 0% 93%  
241 0% 93%  
242 1.1% 93%  
243 19% 92%  
244 0.8% 73%  
245 3% 72%  
246 0.3% 70%  
247 0.6% 69%  
248 3% 69%  
249 1.4% 65%  
250 1.1% 64%  
251 7% 63%  
252 4% 56%  
253 2% 53% Median
254 1.3% 50%  
255 6% 49%  
256 2% 44%  
257 0.6% 42%  
258 5% 41%  
259 2% 37%  
260 1.2% 35%  
261 5% 33%  
262 0.1% 28%  
263 0.2% 28%  
264 0.5% 28%  
265 0.3% 27%  
266 2% 27%  
267 2% 25%  
268 4% 23%  
269 2% 18%  
270 0.6% 16%  
271 6% 15%  
272 1.1% 9%  
273 0% 8%  
274 0.3% 8%  
275 0% 8%  
276 2% 8%  
277 0.1% 6%  
278 0.2% 6%  
279 0.8% 6%  
280 0.1% 5%  
281 0.1% 5%  
282 0% 5%  
283 0.2% 5%  
284 0.4% 5%  
285 0.1% 4%  
286 0.1% 4%  
287 0.1% 4%  
288 0% 4%  
289 0.1% 4%  
290 0% 4%  
291 0.1% 4%  
292 2% 4%  
293 0% 2%  
294 0.5% 2%  
295 0.1% 1.4%  
296 0.1% 1.3%  
297 0% 1.2%  
298 0.5% 1.2%  
299 0.1% 0.8%  
300 0% 0.7%  
301 0.1% 0.7% Last Result
302 0% 0.6%  
303 0% 0.6%  
304 0.1% 0.5%  
305 0% 0.4%  
306 0% 0.4%  
307 0% 0.4%  
308 0.1% 0.3%  
309 0.1% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
193 0.1% 100%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0.1% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.8%  
200 0% 99.8%  
201 0% 99.8%  
202 0% 99.8%  
203 0% 99.8%  
204 0% 99.7%  
205 0% 99.7%  
206 0% 99.7%  
207 0% 99.7%  
208 0% 99.7%  
209 0% 99.7%  
210 0% 99.7%  
211 0% 99.7%  
212 0% 99.7%  
213 0% 99.6%  
214 0% 99.6%  
215 0% 99.6%  
216 0.3% 99.6%  
217 0.5% 99.3%  
218 0.4% 98.9%  
219 0.2% 98%  
220 0% 98%  
221 0.4% 98%  
222 0.2% 98%  
223 0.7% 98%  
224 0.4% 97%  
225 0.2% 97%  
226 0.1% 96%  
227 1.3% 96%  
228 0.6% 95%  
229 0.1% 94%  
230 0.3% 94%  
231 0.1% 94%  
232 0.5% 94%  
233 0% 93%  
234 0% 93%  
235 0.8% 93%  
236 0.5% 93%  
237 0.9% 92%  
238 0.3% 91%  
239 19% 91%  
240 3% 72%  
241 2% 69%  
242 4% 67%  
243 3% 64%  
244 3% 61%  
245 2% 57%  
246 0.4% 55%  
247 3% 55%  
248 3% 52%  
249 0.1% 49% Median
250 0.1% 48%  
251 10% 48%  
252 2% 38%  
253 0.1% 36%  
254 2% 36%  
255 2% 35%  
256 0.3% 32%  
257 4% 32%  
258 0.3% 28%  
259 3% 28%  
260 0.9% 25%  
261 0.7% 24%  
262 0.2% 23%  
263 1.3% 23%  
264 5% 22%  
265 2% 17%  
266 0.1% 15%  
267 7% 15%  
268 0.7% 8%  
269 0.7% 7%  
270 0% 6%  
271 0.1% 6%  
272 0.9% 6%  
273 0% 5%  
274 0% 5%  
275 0.5% 5%  
276 0% 5%  
277 0.1% 5%  
278 0% 5%  
279 0.3% 5%  
280 0% 4%  
281 0.1% 4%  
282 0% 4%  
283 0.1% 4%  
284 0% 4%  
285 0% 4%  
286 0.1% 4%  
287 0.1% 4%  
288 2% 4%  
289 0.1% 2%  
290 0.5% 2%  
291 0.1% 1.2%  
292 0% 1.1%  
293 0% 1.1%  
294 0.4% 1.1%  
295 0.1% 0.7%  
296 0% 0.6%  
297 0.1% 0.6% Last Result
298 0% 0.5%  
299 0.1% 0.5%  
300 0.1% 0.5%  
301 0.1% 0.3%  
302 0% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.2%  
305 0.1% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0.1% 100%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.8%  
168 0% 99.8%  
169 0% 99.8%  
170 0.1% 99.8%  
171 0% 99.7%  
172 0% 99.7%  
173 0% 99.7%  
174 0% 99.6%  
175 0% 99.6%  
176 0% 99.6%  
177 0% 99.6%  
178 0% 99.6%  
179 0.1% 99.6%  
180 0% 99.4%  
181 0% 99.4%  
182 0% 99.4%  
183 0.6% 99.4%  
184 0.3% 98.8%  
185 1.3% 98%  
186 0.7% 97%  
187 0.2% 96%  
188 0.3% 96%  
189 1.1% 96%  
190 0.4% 95%  
191 0.2% 94%  
192 0% 94%  
193 0.4% 94%  
194 0.1% 94%  
195 0.4% 94%  
196 0.4% 93%  
197 0.4% 93%  
198 0.6% 92%  
199 4% 92%  
200 0.9% 88%  
201 20% 87%  
202 2% 67%  
203 5% 65%  
204 0.8% 60%  
205 1.4% 59%  
206 0.3% 58%  
207 6% 58% Median
208 2% 52%  
209 2% 50%  
210 6% 48%  
211 0.2% 42%  
212 1.4% 42%  
213 4% 40%  
214 2% 36%  
215 0.5% 34%  
216 1.4% 33%  
217 3% 32%  
218 2% 29%  
219 2% 27%  
220 4% 25%  
221 1.3% 21%  
222 0.4% 20%  
223 10% 19%  
224 0.4% 10%  
225 0% 9%  
226 0.7% 9%  
227 1.2% 9%  
228 0% 7%  
229 0% 7%  
230 1.1% 7%  
231 0% 6%  
232 0.7% 6%  
233 0.8% 5%  
234 0.1% 5%  
235 0.1% 5%  
236 0% 5%  
237 0.1% 5%  
238 0.1% 4%  
239 0.1% 4%  
240 0% 4%  
241 0% 4%  
242 0.1% 4%  
243 0.1% 4%  
244 0% 4%  
245 0.5% 4%  
246 0.1% 3%  
247 2% 3%  
248 0.1% 1.4%  
249 0.4% 1.3%  
250 0.1% 0.9%  
251 0.1% 0.9%  
252 0% 0.8%  
253 0% 0.8%  
254 0.1% 0.7%  
255 0.1% 0.7%  
256 0.1% 0.6%  
257 0% 0.5%  
258 0.2% 0.5%  
259 0.1% 0.3%  
260 0% 0.2%  
261 0.1% 0.2%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1% Last Result
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0.1% 100%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.8%  
160 0.1% 99.8%  
161 0% 99.8%  
162 0% 99.7%  
163 0% 99.7%  
164 0% 99.7%  
165 0% 99.7%  
166 0% 99.7%  
167 0% 99.7%  
168 0% 99.6%  
169 0% 99.6%  
170 0% 99.6%  
171 0% 99.6%  
172 0% 99.5%  
173 0.1% 99.5%  
174 0.2% 99.4%  
175 0.2% 99.3%  
176 0% 99.0%  
177 0.2% 99.0%  
178 0.7% 98.8%  
179 0.1% 98%  
180 1.4% 98%  
181 2% 97%  
182 0% 95%  
183 0.3% 95%  
184 0.3% 95%  
185 0.3% 94%  
186 0.6% 94%  
187 0.2% 93%  
188 0.1% 93%  
189 0.2% 93%  
190 0.7% 93%  
191 0.1% 92%  
192 0.3% 92%  
193 0.1% 92%  
194 4% 92%  
195 2% 88%  
196 0.2% 86%  
197 20% 85%  
198 2% 66%  
199 7% 64%  
200 1.3% 57%  
201 0.1% 56%  
202 0.3% 56%  
203 10% 56% Median
204 6% 45%  
205 0.4% 39%  
206 5% 39%  
207 0.1% 34%  
208 0.5% 34%  
209 0.2% 33%  
210 3% 33%  
211 0.5% 31%  
212 2% 30%  
213 0.8% 28%  
214 2% 27%  
215 1.1% 25%  
216 4% 24%  
217 1.1% 20%  
218 1.5% 19%  
219 10% 17%  
220 0.4% 8%  
221 0% 8%  
222 0.1% 8%  
223 1.2% 7%  
224 0.4% 6%  
225 0.7% 6%  
226 0.1% 5%  
227 0.1% 5%  
228 0% 5%  
229 0.3% 5%  
230 0.2% 5%  
231 0% 4%  
232 0.1% 4%  
233 0% 4%  
234 0% 4%  
235 0.1% 4%  
236 0% 4%  
237 0% 4%  
238 0.1% 4%  
239 0% 4%  
240 0% 4%  
241 0.5% 4%  
242 0.1% 3%  
243 2% 3%  
244 0% 1.2%  
245 0.4% 1.2%  
246 0.2% 0.9%  
247 0.1% 0.7%  
248 0% 0.6%  
249 0.1% 0.6%  
250 0% 0.5%  
251 0% 0.5%  
252 0.2% 0.5%  
253 0.1% 0.3%  
254 0.1% 0.2%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1% Last Result
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations