Opinion Poll by Opinium for The Observer, 4–6 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 34.8% 33.5–36.2% 33.1–36.6% 32.8–37.0% 32.1–37.6%
Labour Party 40.0% 24.9% 23.7–26.2% 23.3–26.5% 23.0–26.8% 22.5–27.5%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 16.9% 15.9–18.0% 15.6–18.4% 15.3–18.6% 14.9–19.2%
Brexit Party 0.0% 12.9% 12.0–14.0% 11.8–14.2% 11.5–14.5% 11.1–15.0%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.8–6.4%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 318 293–341 293–346 293–349 285–353
Labour Party 262 177 151–189 149–189 143–193 140–204
Liberal Democrats 12 54 48–58 47–59 45–59 45–63
Brexit Party 0 35 17–41 17–45 17–50 15–59
Scottish National Party 35 54 53–54 53–54 51–54 51–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1–2
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0.1% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.2% 99.6%  
286 0% 99.5%  
287 0% 99.5%  
288 0% 99.4%  
289 0.1% 99.4%  
290 0% 99.3%  
291 0% 99.3%  
292 0.1% 99.3%  
293 13% 99.2%  
294 0.2% 86%  
295 0% 86%  
296 0.3% 86%  
297 0% 86%  
298 0.1% 86%  
299 0.1% 86%  
300 0.3% 86%  
301 0% 85%  
302 9% 85%  
303 0.2% 76%  
304 0% 76%  
305 3% 76%  
306 0.4% 73%  
307 0.2% 73%  
308 5% 72%  
309 0.1% 68%  
310 0.1% 68%  
311 1.1% 67%  
312 8% 66%  
313 0.1% 58%  
314 0.1% 58%  
315 6% 58%  
316 0.3% 52%  
317 1.3% 51% Last Result
318 0.4% 50% Median
319 14% 50%  
320 0% 36%  
321 0.3% 36%  
322 0.8% 36%  
323 0.1% 35%  
324 2% 35%  
325 0.7% 33%  
326 0.8% 33% Majority
327 1.4% 32%  
328 0.1% 30%  
329 1.2% 30%  
330 0.7% 29%  
331 0.1% 29%  
332 7% 28%  
333 0.3% 22%  
334 1.0% 21%  
335 0.4% 20%  
336 2% 20%  
337 0% 18%  
338 6% 18%  
339 0.3% 12%  
340 1.0% 12%  
341 5% 11%  
342 0% 7%  
343 0% 7%  
344 0.1% 7%  
345 0.1% 7%  
346 2% 7%  
347 0.8% 4%  
348 0.1% 3%  
349 1.3% 3%  
350 0% 2%  
351 0% 2%  
352 0% 2%  
353 2% 2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.7%  
137 0% 99.7%  
138 0% 99.7%  
139 0.1% 99.7%  
140 2% 99.6%  
141 0% 98%  
142 0.1% 98%  
143 0.3% 98%  
144 0.1% 97%  
145 1.4% 97%  
146 0% 96%  
147 0% 96%  
148 0% 96%  
149 1.5% 96%  
150 0% 94%  
151 6% 94%  
152 1.1% 89%  
153 6% 88%  
154 1.2% 81%  
155 0.2% 80%  
156 0% 80%  
157 1.0% 80%  
158 7% 79%  
159 3% 72%  
160 0% 69%  
161 1.3% 69%  
162 1.0% 68%  
163 0.8% 67%  
164 2% 66%  
165 0.1% 64%  
166 0.2% 64%  
167 1.4% 64%  
168 0.4% 63%  
169 1.1% 62%  
170 2% 61%  
171 0.6% 59%  
172 0% 59%  
173 0.1% 59%  
174 1.3% 59%  
175 5% 57%  
176 0.3% 53%  
177 8% 52% Median
178 0.4% 44%  
179 0.2% 44%  
180 0.1% 44%  
181 4% 43%  
182 0% 40%  
183 6% 39%  
184 0.1% 34%  
185 1.3% 33%  
186 16% 32%  
187 0.1% 17%  
188 0.1% 16%  
189 13% 16%  
190 1.2% 4%  
191 0% 3%  
192 0.1% 3%  
193 0.8% 3%  
194 0% 2%  
195 0.1% 2%  
196 0% 2%  
197 0.3% 2%  
198 0% 1.3%  
199 0% 1.3%  
200 0.2% 1.3%  
201 0.1% 1.2%  
202 0.2% 1.1%  
203 0% 1.0%  
204 0.5% 1.0%  
205 0% 0.5%  
206 0.1% 0.5%  
207 0% 0.4%  
208 0% 0.4%  
209 0% 0.4%  
210 0% 0.4%  
211 0% 0.3%  
212 0% 0.3%  
213 0.1% 0.3%  
214 0.2% 0.3%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.4% 100%  
45 2% 99.6%  
46 0.1% 97%  
47 5% 97%  
48 21% 92%  
49 5% 72%  
50 0% 67%  
51 6% 67%  
52 0.2% 61%  
53 9% 61%  
54 3% 51% Median
55 15% 48%  
56 0.6% 33%  
57 15% 32%  
58 12% 18%  
59 4% 6%  
60 0.2% 2%  
61 0.1% 2%  
62 0.1% 2%  
63 1.4% 2%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.5% 100%  
14 0% 99.5%  
15 0.2% 99.5%  
16 0.3% 99.3%  
17 14% 99.0%  
18 0.4% 85%  
19 1.4% 85%  
20 3% 84%  
21 1.1% 81%  
22 0.2% 80%  
23 0% 80%  
24 0.1% 80%  
25 7% 80%  
26 0.7% 73%  
27 5% 72%  
28 2% 67%  
29 4% 66%  
30 0.1% 61%  
31 2% 61%  
32 2% 59%  
33 0.1% 57%  
34 4% 57%  
35 6% 53% Median
36 2% 48%  
37 10% 45%  
38 13% 35%  
39 0.4% 22%  
40 3% 22%  
41 12% 19%  
42 0.6% 7%  
43 0.1% 7%  
44 1.3% 6%  
45 0.5% 5%  
46 1.0% 5%  
47 0.4% 4%  
48 0.2% 3%  
49 0% 3%  
50 1.1% 3%  
51 0.1% 2%  
52 0.1% 2%  
53 0% 2%  
54 0% 2%  
55 0% 2%  
56 0.1% 2%  
57 0% 2%  
58 0.9% 2%  
59 0.6% 0.8%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.2%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 4% 99.7%  
52 0% 95%  
53 14% 95%  
54 81% 81% Median
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Median
1 2% 46%  
2 0.5% 45%  
3 35% 44%  
4 9% 9% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 373 100% 347–397 347–398 347–406 342–410
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 372 100% 347–395 347–397 347–403 339–407
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 373 100% 350–389 350–392 350–396 344–400
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 373 100% 350–389 350–392 350–396 344–400
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 319 34% 293–344 293–346 293–352 288–356
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 318 33% 293–341 293–346 293–349 285–353
Conservative Party 317 318 33% 293–341 293–346 293–349 285–353
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 286 0.1% 258–300 253–301 247–304 244–318
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 285 0.1% 255–300 250–300 246–301 241–315
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 234 0% 204–246 199–247 193–250 190–264
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 232 0% 201–246 196–246 193–248 187–261
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 232 0% 201–246 196–246 193–248 187–261
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 234 0% 206–243 205–243 199–247 197–259
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 231 0% 205–243 203–243 197–247 194–258
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 180 0% 152–189 151–189 145–193 143–205
Labour Party – Change UK 262 177 0% 151–189 149–189 143–193 140–204
Labour Party 262 177 0% 151–189 149–189 143–193 140–204

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
331 0.1% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.8%  
334 0% 99.8%  
335 0% 99.8%  
336 0% 99.8%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.7%  
339 0% 99.7%  
340 0% 99.6%  
341 0% 99.6%  
342 0.2% 99.6%  
343 0% 99.4%  
344 0% 99.4%  
345 0% 99.4%  
346 0% 99.4%  
347 13% 99.4%  
348 0% 86%  
349 0.3% 86%  
350 0.1% 86%  
351 0.1% 86%  
352 0% 86%  
353 0.2% 86%  
354 0% 86%  
355 0.1% 86%  
356 0.1% 86% Last Result
357 0.2% 85%  
358 0.3% 85%  
359 9% 85%  
360 0.1% 76%  
361 2% 76%  
362 4% 74%  
363 0.5% 69%  
364 0% 69%  
365 2% 69%  
366 5% 66%  
367 0.2% 62%  
368 3% 62%  
369 0.4% 58%  
370 0.2% 58%  
371 0.2% 58%  
372 7% 58% Median
373 14% 50%  
374 0% 37%  
375 0.4% 37%  
376 1.0% 36%  
377 0.1% 35%  
378 0.8% 35%  
379 0.7% 34%  
380 2% 34%  
381 0.1% 32%  
382 1.2% 32%  
383 0.3% 31%  
384 0.1% 31%  
385 1.3% 30%  
386 6% 29%  
387 2% 23%  
388 1.2% 21%  
389 1.5% 20%  
390 0.2% 18%  
391 0% 18%  
392 0.3% 18%  
393 0.1% 18%  
394 0.4% 18%  
395 5% 18%  
396 0.2% 12%  
397 3% 12%  
398 4% 9%  
399 0% 4%  
400 0% 4%  
401 0.8% 4%  
402 0% 3%  
403 0% 3%  
404 0% 3%  
405 0.1% 3%  
406 1.3% 3%  
407 0% 2%  
408 0% 2%  
409 0% 2%  
410 2% 2%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
328 0.1% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.8%  
333 0% 99.8%  
334 0% 99.8%  
335 0.1% 99.8%  
336 0% 99.8%  
337 0.1% 99.7%  
338 0% 99.6%  
339 0.2% 99.6%  
340 0% 99.4%  
341 0% 99.4%  
342 0% 99.4%  
343 0.1% 99.4%  
344 0% 99.3%  
345 0% 99.3%  
346 0.1% 99.3%  
347 13% 99.2%  
348 0.1% 86%  
349 0.3% 86%  
350 0% 86%  
351 0.1% 86%  
352 0.2% 86% Last Result
353 0.1% 86%  
354 0.3% 85%  
355 0.1% 85%  
356 9% 85%  
357 0.1% 76%  
358 0.1% 76%  
359 3% 76%  
360 0.5% 73%  
361 2% 73%  
362 3% 71%  
363 0.3% 68%  
364 0.1% 67%  
365 4% 67%  
366 5% 63%  
367 0.1% 58%  
368 6% 58%  
369 0.8% 52%  
370 0.1% 52%  
371 1.4% 51%  
372 0.4% 50% Median
373 14% 50%  
374 0.1% 36%  
375 0.3% 36%  
376 0.8% 36%  
377 1.0% 35%  
378 0.8% 34%  
379 0.9% 33%  
380 0.7% 32%  
381 1.4% 32%  
382 0.9% 30%  
383 0.4% 29%  
384 0.6% 29%  
385 0.1% 28%  
386 7% 28%  
387 2% 22%  
388 1.0% 20%  
389 0.5% 19%  
390 0.2% 18%  
391 0% 18%  
392 6% 18%  
393 0.3% 12%  
394 1.2% 12%  
395 4% 11%  
396 0% 7%  
397 2% 7%  
398 0% 4%  
399 0.1% 4%  
400 0% 4%  
401 0.8% 4%  
402 0.1% 3%  
403 1.3% 3%  
404 0% 2%  
405 0% 2%  
406 0% 2%  
407 2% 2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0.1% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0.1% 99.8%  
343 0% 99.7%  
344 0.2% 99.6%  
345 0% 99.4%  
346 0% 99.4%  
347 0.5% 99.4%  
348 0.3% 98.9%  
349 0.1% 98.6%  
350 12% 98.5%  
351 0.1% 86%  
352 0% 86%  
353 0% 86%  
354 0.1% 86%  
355 0.1% 86%  
356 0.1% 86%  
357 0.5% 86%  
358 0% 85%  
359 2% 85%  
360 11% 83%  
361 8% 71%  
362 0.1% 64%  
363 0.6% 63%  
364 0.4% 63%  
365 1.3% 62%  
366 6% 61%  
367 2% 55%  
368 0.2% 53%  
369 1.4% 53%  
370 0.1% 52%  
371 0.6% 52%  
372 1.0% 51% Median
373 0.7% 50%  
374 14% 49%  
375 2% 35%  
376 0.1% 34%  
377 1.1% 34%  
378 0.3% 32%  
379 0.9% 32%  
380 2% 31%  
381 0.4% 29%  
382 0.5% 29%  
383 0.3% 29%  
384 2% 28%  
385 6% 27%  
386 5% 21%  
387 1.3% 15%  
388 0.9% 14%  
389 4% 13%  
390 1.0% 9%  
391 3% 8%  
392 0.5% 5%  
393 0.1% 4%  
394 0.3% 4%  
395 0.6% 4%  
396 2% 3%  
397 0% 2%  
398 0% 2%  
399 0% 2%  
400 2% 2%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0.1% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0.1% 99.8%  
343 0% 99.7%  
344 0.2% 99.6%  
345 0% 99.4%  
346 0% 99.4%  
347 0.5% 99.4%  
348 0.3% 98.9%  
349 0.1% 98.6%  
350 12% 98.5%  
351 0.1% 86%  
352 0% 86%  
353 0% 86%  
354 0.1% 86%  
355 0.1% 86%  
356 0.1% 86%  
357 0.5% 86%  
358 0% 85%  
359 2% 85%  
360 11% 83%  
361 8% 71%  
362 0.1% 64%  
363 0.6% 63%  
364 0.4% 63%  
365 1.3% 62%  
366 6% 61%  
367 2% 55%  
368 0.2% 53%  
369 1.4% 53%  
370 0.1% 52%  
371 0.6% 52%  
372 1.0% 51% Median
373 0.7% 50%  
374 14% 49%  
375 2% 35%  
376 0.1% 34%  
377 1.1% 34%  
378 0.3% 32%  
379 0.9% 32%  
380 2% 31%  
381 0.4% 29%  
382 0.5% 29%  
383 0.3% 29%  
384 2% 28%  
385 6% 27%  
386 5% 21%  
387 1.3% 15%  
388 0.9% 14%  
389 4% 13%  
390 1.0% 9%  
391 3% 8%  
392 0.5% 5%  
393 0.1% 4%  
394 0.3% 4%  
395 0.6% 4%  
396 2% 3%  
397 0% 2%  
398 0% 2%  
399 0% 2%  
400 2% 2%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0% 99.7%  
286 0% 99.7%  
287 0% 99.6%  
288 0.2% 99.6%  
289 0% 99.5%  
290 0% 99.4%  
291 0% 99.4%  
292 0% 99.4%  
293 13% 99.4%  
294 0% 86%  
295 0.1% 86%  
296 0.3% 86%  
297 0.1% 86%  
298 0% 86%  
299 0.1% 86%  
300 0.1% 86%  
301 0% 86%  
302 0.1% 86%  
303 0.3% 86%  
304 0.3% 85%  
305 9% 85%  
306 0% 76%  
307 0.2% 76%  
308 6% 75%  
309 0.5% 69%  
310 0% 69%  
311 2% 69%  
312 5% 67%  
313 0.1% 62%  
314 0% 62%  
315 4% 62%  
316 0.2% 58%  
317 0.2% 58%  
318 2% 58% Median
319 19% 56%  
320 0.2% 37%  
321 0.4% 37% Last Result
322 1.0% 36%  
323 0% 35%  
324 0.8% 35%  
325 0.7% 34%  
326 0.7% 34% Majority
327 0.9% 33%  
328 0.2% 32%  
329 1.2% 32%  
330 0.1% 31%  
331 1.3% 31%  
332 6% 29%  
333 0.5% 23%  
334 1.3% 23%  
335 1.4% 22%  
336 2% 20%  
337 0% 18%  
338 0.3% 18%  
339 0.2% 18%  
340 0.1% 18%  
341 6% 18%  
342 0.2% 12%  
343 0.9% 12%  
344 4% 11%  
345 0% 7%  
346 2% 7%  
347 0.8% 4%  
348 0.1% 3%  
349 0% 3%  
350 0% 3%  
351 0.1% 3%  
352 1.3% 3%  
353 0% 2%  
354 0% 2%  
355 0% 2%  
356 2% 2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0.1% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.2% 99.6%  
286 0% 99.5%  
287 0% 99.5%  
288 0% 99.4%  
289 0.1% 99.4%  
290 0% 99.3%  
291 0% 99.3%  
292 0.1% 99.3%  
293 13% 99.2%  
294 0.2% 86%  
295 0% 86%  
296 0.3% 86%  
297 0% 86%  
298 0.1% 86%  
299 0.1% 86%  
300 0.3% 86%  
301 0% 85%  
302 9% 85%  
303 0.2% 76%  
304 0% 76%  
305 3% 76%  
306 0.4% 73%  
307 0.2% 73%  
308 5% 72%  
309 0.1% 68%  
310 0.1% 68%  
311 1.1% 67%  
312 8% 66%  
313 0.1% 58%  
314 0.1% 58%  
315 6% 58%  
316 0.3% 52%  
317 1.3% 51% Last Result
318 0.4% 50% Median
319 14% 50%  
320 0% 36%  
321 0.3% 36%  
322 0.8% 36%  
323 0.1% 35%  
324 2% 35%  
325 0.7% 33%  
326 0.8% 33% Majority
327 1.4% 32%  
328 0.1% 30%  
329 1.2% 30%  
330 0.7% 29%  
331 0.1% 29%  
332 7% 28%  
333 0.3% 22%  
334 1.0% 21%  
335 0.4% 20%  
336 2% 20%  
337 0% 18%  
338 6% 18%  
339 0.3% 12%  
340 1.0% 12%  
341 5% 11%  
342 0% 7%  
343 0% 7%  
344 0.1% 7%  
345 0.1% 7%  
346 2% 7%  
347 0.8% 4%  
348 0.1% 3%  
349 1.3% 3%  
350 0% 2%  
351 0% 2%  
352 0% 2%  
353 2% 2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0.1% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.2% 99.6%  
286 0% 99.5%  
287 0% 99.5%  
288 0% 99.4%  
289 0.1% 99.4%  
290 0% 99.3%  
291 0% 99.3%  
292 0.1% 99.3%  
293 13% 99.2%  
294 0.2% 86%  
295 0% 86%  
296 0.3% 86%  
297 0% 86%  
298 0.1% 86%  
299 0.1% 86%  
300 0.3% 86%  
301 0% 85%  
302 9% 85%  
303 0.2% 76%  
304 0% 76%  
305 3% 76%  
306 0.4% 73%  
307 0.2% 73%  
308 5% 72%  
309 0.1% 68%  
310 0.1% 68%  
311 1.1% 67%  
312 8% 66%  
313 0.1% 58%  
314 0.1% 58%  
315 6% 58%  
316 0.3% 52%  
317 1.3% 51% Last Result
318 0.4% 50% Median
319 14% 50%  
320 0% 36%  
321 0.3% 36%  
322 0.8% 36%  
323 0.1% 35%  
324 2% 35%  
325 0.7% 33%  
326 0.8% 33% Majority
327 1.4% 32%  
328 0.1% 30%  
329 1.2% 30%  
330 0.7% 29%  
331 0.1% 29%  
332 7% 28%  
333 0.3% 22%  
334 1.0% 21%  
335 0.4% 20%  
336 2% 20%  
337 0% 18%  
338 6% 18%  
339 0.3% 12%  
340 1.0% 12%  
341 5% 11%  
342 0% 7%  
343 0% 7%  
344 0.1% 7%  
345 0.1% 7%  
346 2% 7%  
347 0.8% 4%  
348 0.1% 3%  
349 1.3% 3%  
350 0% 2%  
351 0% 2%  
352 0% 2%  
353 2% 2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.8%  
243 0% 99.7%  
244 2% 99.7%  
245 0.1% 98%  
246 0% 98%  
247 0.6% 98%  
248 0.2% 97%  
249 1.1% 97%  
250 0.1% 96%  
251 0% 96%  
252 0% 96%  
253 1.4% 96%  
254 3% 95%  
255 1.0% 92%  
256 0% 91%  
257 0.1% 91%  
258 11% 91%  
259 1.1% 80%  
260 1.3% 79%  
261 0% 78%  
262 0.9% 78%  
263 6% 77%  
264 0.2% 71%  
265 0.1% 71%  
266 0.6% 71%  
267 0.1% 70%  
268 0.7% 70%  
269 0% 69%  
270 0.5% 69%  
271 1.2% 69%  
272 0.2% 68%  
273 0.4% 67%  
274 2% 67%  
275 0.7% 65%  
276 0.8% 64%  
277 1.4% 63%  
278 6% 62%  
279 0% 56%  
280 0.3% 56%  
281 0.4% 56%  
282 0.1% 55%  
283 2% 55%  
284 0.8% 53%  
285 2% 53% Median
286 0.1% 50%  
287 2% 50%  
288 0.2% 48%  
289 0.1% 48%  
290 0.1% 48%  
291 6% 48%  
292 8% 42%  
293 0.3% 34%  
294 0% 33%  
295 13% 33%  
296 0% 20%  
297 2% 20%  
298 0% 18%  
299 0.1% 18%  
300 13% 18%  
301 1.5% 5%  
302 0.1% 4%  
303 0.4% 4%  
304 1.2% 3%  
305 0.3% 2%  
306 0% 2%  
307 0.1% 2%  
308 0.1% 2%  
309 0% 1.4%  
310 0.1% 1.4%  
311 0% 1.3%  
312 0.6% 1.3%  
313 0% 0.7% Last Result
314 0% 0.7%  
315 0% 0.7%  
316 0.1% 0.7%  
317 0% 0.6%  
318 0.2% 0.6%  
319 0.2% 0.5%  
320 0% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.3%  
322 0.1% 0.3%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0.1% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.8%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.7%  
241 2% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 98%  
243 0% 98%  
244 0% 98%  
245 0.2% 98%  
246 0.9% 98%  
247 0.6% 97%  
248 0% 96%  
249 0.3% 96%  
250 1.4% 96%  
251 0.1% 95%  
252 0.1% 95%  
253 0% 94%  
254 3% 94%  
255 6% 92%  
256 1.0% 86%  
257 0.1% 85%  
258 5% 84%  
259 1.1% 79%  
260 5% 78%  
261 0% 73%  
262 0.9% 73%  
263 2% 72%  
264 0.2% 71%  
265 0.3% 70%  
266 0.8% 70%  
267 0.1% 69%  
268 1.5% 69%  
269 0.1% 68%  
270 0.3% 68%  
271 1.3% 67%  
272 0.2% 66%  
273 0.3% 66%  
274 1.1% 66%  
275 2% 64%  
276 2% 63%  
277 0% 60%  
278 5% 60%  
279 0.2% 55%  
280 0.3% 55%  
281 0.5% 55%  
282 2% 54%  
283 2% 52%  
284 0.1% 51%  
285 0.5% 50% Median
286 0.1% 50%  
287 8% 50%  
288 0.1% 42%  
289 8% 42%  
290 0.2% 34%  
291 0% 34%  
292 0.1% 34%  
293 0.1% 33%  
294 2% 33%  
295 13% 31%  
296 0.2% 18%  
297 0% 18%  
298 1.3% 18%  
299 0% 16%  
300 12% 16%  
301 1.3% 4%  
302 0.4% 2%  
303 0.4% 2%  
304 0.1% 2%  
305 0% 2%  
306 0.1% 2%  
307 0% 1.5%  
308 0.1% 1.4%  
309 0% 1.3% Last Result
310 0% 1.3%  
311 0% 1.3%  
312 0.6% 1.3%  
313 0% 0.6%  
314 0% 0.6%  
315 0.2% 0.6%  
316 0% 0.5%  
317 0% 0.5%  
318 0% 0.5%  
319 0.3% 0.5%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0.1% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0.1% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.8%  
189 0% 99.7%  
190 2% 99.7%  
191 0.1% 98%  
192 0% 98%  
193 0.6% 98%  
194 0.2% 97%  
195 0% 97%  
196 1.1% 97%  
197 0% 96%  
198 0% 96%  
199 1.4% 96%  
200 0.2% 95%  
201 0.9% 94%  
202 0.1% 94%  
203 2% 94%  
204 11% 91%  
205 1.1% 80%  
206 1.3% 79%  
207 0% 78%  
208 0.1% 78%  
209 5% 78%  
210 0.2% 72%  
211 0.1% 72%  
212 2% 72%  
213 0.1% 70%  
214 0.8% 70%  
215 0.1% 69%  
216 0.5% 69%  
217 1.1% 69%  
218 0.2% 68%  
219 0.4% 67%  
220 2% 67%  
221 0.4% 65%  
222 0.8% 65%  
223 1.4% 64%  
224 5% 62%  
225 1.4% 57%  
226 0.3% 56%  
227 0.4% 56%  
228 0% 55%  
229 2% 55%  
230 0.8% 53%  
231 0.5% 53% Median
232 2% 52%  
233 0.1% 50%  
234 2% 50%  
235 0.2% 48%  
236 0.1% 48%  
237 0.1% 48%  
238 14% 48%  
239 0.1% 34%  
240 0.3% 34%  
241 13% 33%  
242 0.1% 20%  
243 2% 20%  
244 0% 18%  
245 0% 18%  
246 13% 18%  
247 1.3% 5%  
248 0.2% 4%  
249 0.4% 4%  
250 1.1% 3%  
251 0.4% 2%  
252 0% 2%  
253 0.1% 2%  
254 0% 2%  
255 0.1% 2%  
256 0% 1.4%  
257 0.1% 1.4%  
258 0.6% 1.3%  
259 0% 0.7%  
260 0% 0.7%  
261 0% 0.7%  
262 0% 0.7%  
263 0.1% 0.7%  
264 0.2% 0.6%  
265 0% 0.5%  
266 0.2% 0.5%  
267 0% 0.3%  
268 0.1% 0.3%  
269 0% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0.1% 0.1%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.8%  
185 0% 99.8%  
186 0% 99.7%  
187 2% 99.7%  
188 0.1% 98%  
189 0% 98%  
190 0% 98%  
191 0.3% 98%  
192 0.1% 98%  
193 1.4% 98%  
194 0% 96%  
195 0% 96%  
196 2% 96%  
197 0.1% 95%  
198 0.1% 95%  
199 0% 94%  
200 0.1% 94%  
201 6% 94%  
202 1.1% 88%  
203 2% 87%  
204 5% 84%  
205 1.1% 79%  
206 5% 78%  
207 0% 73%  
208 0% 73%  
209 1.0% 73%  
210 0.3% 72%  
211 0.3% 72%  
212 2% 72%  
213 0.1% 69%  
214 1.5% 69%  
215 0.1% 68%  
216 0.3% 68%  
217 1.2% 67%  
218 0.2% 66%  
219 0.4% 66%  
220 1.1% 66%  
221 0.5% 65%  
222 4% 64%  
223 0% 61%  
224 5% 61%  
225 0% 55%  
226 0.3% 55%  
227 0.4% 55%  
228 0.2% 55%  
229 4% 54%  
230 0.1% 51%  
231 0.5% 51% Median
232 0.2% 50%  
233 0.1% 50%  
234 8% 50%  
235 8% 42%  
236 0.2% 34%  
237 0.1% 34%  
238 0.1% 34%  
239 0.1% 34%  
240 2% 33%  
241 13% 31%  
242 0.3% 18%  
243 0% 18%  
244 1.3% 18%  
245 0% 16%  
246 12% 16%  
247 1.1% 4%  
248 0.5% 3%  
249 0.4% 2%  
250 0.1% 2%  
251 0% 2%  
252 0% 2%  
253 0.1% 2%  
254 0% 1.5%  
255 0.1% 1.4%  
256 0% 1.3%  
257 0% 1.3%  
258 0.6% 1.3%  
259 0.1% 0.7%  
260 0% 0.6%  
261 0.2% 0.6%  
262 0% 0.5%  
263 0% 0.5%  
264 0% 0.5%  
265 0.1% 0.5%  
266 0.2% 0.4%  
267 0% 0.2%  
268 0% 0.2%  
269 0% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0.1% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1% Last Result
275 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.8%  
185 0% 99.8%  
186 0% 99.7%  
187 2% 99.7%  
188 0.1% 98%  
189 0% 98%  
190 0% 98%  
191 0.3% 98%  
192 0.1% 98%  
193 1.4% 98%  
194 0% 96%  
195 0% 96%  
196 2% 96%  
197 0.1% 95%  
198 0.1% 95%  
199 0% 94%  
200 0.1% 94%  
201 6% 94%  
202 1.1% 88%  
203 2% 87%  
204 5% 84%  
205 1.1% 79%  
206 5% 78%  
207 0% 73%  
208 0% 73%  
209 1.0% 73%  
210 0.3% 72%  
211 0.3% 72%  
212 2% 72%  
213 0.1% 69%  
214 1.5% 69%  
215 0.1% 68%  
216 0.3% 68%  
217 1.2% 67%  
218 0.2% 66%  
219 0.4% 66%  
220 1.1% 66%  
221 0.5% 65%  
222 4% 64%  
223 0% 61%  
224 5% 61%  
225 0% 55%  
226 0.3% 55%  
227 0.4% 55%  
228 0.2% 55%  
229 4% 54%  
230 0.1% 51%  
231 0.5% 51% Median
232 0.2% 50%  
233 0.1% 50%  
234 8% 50%  
235 8% 42%  
236 0.2% 34%  
237 0.1% 34%  
238 0.1% 34%  
239 0.1% 34%  
240 2% 33%  
241 13% 31%  
242 0.3% 18%  
243 0% 18%  
244 1.3% 18%  
245 0% 16%  
246 12% 16%  
247 1.1% 4%  
248 0.5% 3%  
249 0.4% 2%  
250 0.1% 2%  
251 0% 2%  
252 0% 2%  
253 0.1% 2%  
254 0% 1.5%  
255 0.1% 1.4%  
256 0% 1.3%  
257 0% 1.3%  
258 0.6% 1.3%  
259 0.1% 0.7%  
260 0% 0.6%  
261 0.2% 0.6%  
262 0% 0.5%  
263 0% 0.5%  
264 0% 0.5%  
265 0.1% 0.5%  
266 0.2% 0.4%  
267 0% 0.2%  
268 0% 0.2%  
269 0% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0.1% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1% Last Result
275 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
179 0% 100%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.8%  
192 0% 99.8%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0% 99.7%  
195 0% 99.7%  
196 0.1% 99.6%  
197 2% 99.6%  
198 0.1% 98%  
199 0.7% 98%  
200 0.2% 97%  
201 0.8% 97%  
202 0.1% 96%  
203 0% 96%  
204 0% 96%  
205 6% 96%  
206 2% 90%  
207 0.8% 88%  
208 0% 87%  
209 3% 87%  
210 6% 84%  
211 0.8% 79%  
212 1.1% 78%  
213 0.4% 77%  
214 2% 77%  
215 6% 74%  
216 2% 68%  
217 0.5% 66%  
218 0.6% 65%  
219 0.2% 65%  
220 0.4% 65%  
221 0.2% 64%  
222 0.2% 64%  
223 0.6% 64%  
224 3% 63%  
225 0.7% 60%  
226 0.4% 60%  
227 0.5% 59%  
228 0.2% 59%  
229 5% 59%  
230 1.4% 54%  
231 0.2% 53% Median
232 0.5% 52%  
233 0.2% 52%  
234 10% 52%  
235 0% 42%  
236 0.1% 42%  
237 2% 42%  
238 0.2% 40%  
239 0% 39%  
240 19% 39%  
241 0.1% 20%  
242 1.3% 20%  
243 15% 19%  
244 0.1% 4%  
245 0.1% 4%  
246 0.1% 4%  
247 2% 4%  
248 0% 2%  
249 0.1% 2%  
250 0.6% 2%  
251 0% 1.5%  
252 0.1% 1.4%  
253 0% 1.3%  
254 0.1% 1.3%  
255 0% 1.2%  
256 0% 1.2%  
257 0% 1.2%  
258 0.5% 1.1%  
259 0.2% 0.6%  
260 0% 0.5%  
261 0% 0.5%  
262 0% 0.5%  
263 0.1% 0.4%  
264 0% 0.4%  
265 0% 0.4%  
266 0% 0.3%  
267 0.2% 0.3%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0.1% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
179 0% 100%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0.1% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.7%  
191 0% 99.7%  
192 0% 99.7%  
193 0.1% 99.7%  
194 2% 99.6%  
195 0% 98%  
196 0.1% 98%  
197 0.3% 98%  
198 0.9% 97%  
199 0.6% 97%  
200 0% 96%  
201 0% 96%  
202 0.1% 96%  
203 2% 96%  
204 0% 94%  
205 6% 94%  
206 1.0% 89%  
207 6% 88%  
208 1.1% 81%  
209 3% 80%  
210 0.1% 78%  
211 1.0% 78%  
212 4% 77%  
213 3% 72%  
214 0.9% 69%  
215 2% 68%  
216 0.9% 67%  
217 0.7% 66%  
218 0.6% 65%  
219 0.1% 64%  
220 0.2% 64%  
221 1.4% 64%  
222 0.5% 62%  
223 1.0% 62%  
224 2% 61%  
225 0.4% 59%  
226 0.1% 59%  
227 2% 59%  
228 0% 57%  
229 5% 57%  
230 0.1% 52%  
231 8% 52% Median
232 0.4% 44%  
233 0.1% 44%  
234 4% 43%  
235 0.1% 40%  
236 6% 39%  
237 0.1% 34%  
238 0.1% 34%  
239 1.2% 33%  
240 16% 32%  
241 0% 16%  
242 0.1% 16%  
243 12% 16%  
244 1.1% 4%  
245 0% 3%  
246 0.1% 3%  
247 0.7% 3%  
248 0.1% 2%  
249 0% 2%  
250 0.3% 2%  
251 0% 1.3%  
252 0% 1.3%  
253 0% 1.3%  
254 0.2% 1.3%  
255 0% 1.1%  
256 0.2% 1.1%  
257 0% 0.9%  
258 0.5% 0.9%  
259 0% 0.5%  
260 0.1% 0.5%  
261 0% 0.4%  
262 0% 0.4%  
263 0% 0.4%  
264 0% 0.3%  
265 0% 0.3%  
266 0.1% 0.3%  
267 0.2% 0.3%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.8%  
138 0% 99.8%  
139 0.1% 99.8%  
140 0% 99.7%  
141 0% 99.7%  
142 0.1% 99.7%  
143 2% 99.6%  
144 0.1% 98%  
145 0.7% 98%  
146 0.2% 97%  
147 0% 97%  
148 0.9% 97%  
149 0% 96%  
150 0% 96%  
151 5% 96%  
152 3% 91%  
153 0.8% 88%  
154 0.1% 87%  
155 0.2% 87%  
156 6% 87%  
157 0.8% 81%  
158 4% 81%  
159 0.4% 77%  
160 1.3% 77%  
161 6% 75%  
162 2% 70%  
163 0.5% 67%  
164 2% 67%  
165 0.2% 65%  
166 0.5% 65%  
167 0.2% 64%  
168 0% 64%  
169 0.7% 64%  
170 3% 63%  
171 0.9% 61%  
172 0.3% 60%  
173 0.3% 59%  
174 0.2% 59%  
175 5% 59%  
176 0.4% 54%  
177 1.4% 54% Median
178 0.5% 52%  
179 0.1% 52%  
180 8% 52%  
181 2% 44%  
182 0.1% 42%  
183 0.1% 42%  
184 2% 42%  
185 0.1% 39%  
186 14% 39%  
187 6% 26%  
188 1.3% 20%  
189 15% 19%  
190 0% 4%  
191 0.1% 4%  
192 0.1% 4%  
193 2% 4%  
194 0% 2%  
195 0.1% 2%  
196 0.3% 2%  
197 0.3% 2%  
198 0% 1.4%  
199 0.1% 1.4%  
200 0.1% 1.3%  
201 0% 1.2%  
202 0% 1.2%  
203 0% 1.2%  
204 0.5% 1.2%  
205 0.2% 0.7%  
206 0% 0.5%  
207 0% 0.5%  
208 0% 0.5%  
209 0.1% 0.5%  
210 0% 0.4%  
211 0% 0.4%  
212 0% 0.3%  
213 0% 0.3%  
214 0.2% 0.3%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0.1% 0.1%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.7%  
137 0% 99.7%  
138 0% 99.7%  
139 0.1% 99.7%  
140 2% 99.6%  
141 0% 98%  
142 0.1% 98%  
143 0.3% 98%  
144 0.1% 97%  
145 1.4% 97%  
146 0% 96%  
147 0% 96%  
148 0% 96%  
149 1.5% 96%  
150 0% 94%  
151 6% 94%  
152 1.1% 89%  
153 6% 88%  
154 1.2% 81%  
155 0.2% 80%  
156 0% 80%  
157 1.0% 80%  
158 7% 79%  
159 3% 72%  
160 0% 69%  
161 1.3% 69%  
162 1.0% 68%  
163 0.8% 67%  
164 2% 66%  
165 0.1% 64%  
166 0.2% 64%  
167 1.4% 64%  
168 0.4% 63%  
169 1.1% 62%  
170 2% 61%  
171 0.6% 59%  
172 0% 59%  
173 0.1% 59%  
174 1.3% 59%  
175 5% 57%  
176 0.3% 53%  
177 8% 52% Median
178 0.4% 44%  
179 0.2% 44%  
180 0.1% 44%  
181 4% 43%  
182 0% 40%  
183 6% 39%  
184 0.1% 34%  
185 1.3% 33%  
186 16% 32%  
187 0.1% 17%  
188 0.1% 16%  
189 13% 16%  
190 1.2% 4%  
191 0% 3%  
192 0.1% 3%  
193 0.8% 3%  
194 0% 2%  
195 0.1% 2%  
196 0% 2%  
197 0.3% 2%  
198 0% 1.3%  
199 0% 1.3%  
200 0.2% 1.3%  
201 0.1% 1.2%  
202 0.2% 1.1%  
203 0% 1.0%  
204 0.5% 1.0%  
205 0% 0.5%  
206 0.1% 0.5%  
207 0% 0.4%  
208 0% 0.4%  
209 0% 0.4%  
210 0% 0.4%  
211 0% 0.3%  
212 0% 0.3%  
213 0.1% 0.3%  
214 0.2% 0.3%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.7%  
137 0% 99.7%  
138 0% 99.7%  
139 0.1% 99.7%  
140 2% 99.6%  
141 0% 98%  
142 0.1% 98%  
143 0.3% 98%  
144 0.1% 97%  
145 1.4% 97%  
146 0% 96%  
147 0% 96%  
148 0% 96%  
149 1.5% 96%  
150 0% 94%  
151 6% 94%  
152 1.1% 89%  
153 6% 88%  
154 1.2% 81%  
155 0.2% 80%  
156 0% 80%  
157 1.0% 80%  
158 7% 79%  
159 3% 72%  
160 0% 69%  
161 1.3% 69%  
162 1.0% 68%  
163 0.8% 67%  
164 2% 66%  
165 0.1% 64%  
166 0.2% 64%  
167 1.4% 64%  
168 0.4% 63%  
169 1.1% 62%  
170 2% 61%  
171 0.6% 59%  
172 0% 59%  
173 0.1% 59%  
174 1.3% 59%  
175 5% 57%  
176 0.3% 53%  
177 8% 52% Median
178 0.4% 44%  
179 0.2% 44%  
180 0.1% 44%  
181 4% 43%  
182 0% 40%  
183 6% 39%  
184 0.1% 34%  
185 1.3% 33%  
186 16% 32%  
187 0.1% 17%  
188 0.1% 16%  
189 13% 16%  
190 1.2% 4%  
191 0% 3%  
192 0.1% 3%  
193 0.8% 3%  
194 0% 2%  
195 0.1% 2%  
196 0% 2%  
197 0.3% 2%  
198 0% 1.3%  
199 0% 1.3%  
200 0.2% 1.3%  
201 0.1% 1.2%  
202 0.2% 1.1%  
203 0% 1.0%  
204 0.5% 1.0%  
205 0% 0.5%  
206 0.1% 0.5%  
207 0% 0.4%  
208 0% 0.4%  
209 0% 0.4%  
210 0% 0.4%  
211 0% 0.3%  
212 0% 0.3%  
213 0.1% 0.3%  
214 0.2% 0.3%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations