Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 5–9 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 38.0% 36.2–39.9% 35.7–40.4% 35.3–40.9% 34.4–41.8%
Labour Party 40.0% 24.0% 22.5–25.7% 22.0–26.2% 21.6–26.6% 20.9–27.4%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 20.0% 18.6–21.6% 18.2–22.1% 17.8–22.5% 17.1–23.2%
Brexit Party 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.9–8.4% 5.7–8.6% 5.3–9.2%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.8%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Change UK 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 343 342–366 335–370 325–370 299–382
Labour Party 262 160 147–174 135–174 132–180 132–205
Liberal Democrats 12 63 58–69 49–70 49–74 49–77
Brexit Party 0 3 2–3 2–5 2–7 1–12
Scottish National Party 35 49 45–54 43–54 40–54 39–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1–2
Plaid Cymru 4 7 4–7 4–11 4–12 4–13
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0.1% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0.6% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.3%  
301 0% 99.3%  
302 0.3% 99.3%  
303 0% 99.0%  
304 0% 98.9%  
305 0.1% 98.9%  
306 0% 98.8%  
307 0% 98.8%  
308 0% 98.8%  
309 0% 98.8%  
310 0.1% 98.8%  
311 0% 98.7%  
312 0% 98.7%  
313 0% 98.7%  
314 0% 98.6%  
315 0% 98.6%  
316 0% 98.6%  
317 0% 98.6% Last Result
318 0.1% 98.6%  
319 0.1% 98.5%  
320 0.1% 98%  
321 0.2% 98%  
322 0.1% 98%  
323 0.2% 98%  
324 0% 98%  
325 0.3% 98%  
326 0.1% 97% Majority
327 0.2% 97%  
328 0.2% 97%  
329 0.2% 97%  
330 0.5% 97%  
331 0.3% 96%  
332 0.1% 96%  
333 0.5% 96%  
334 0.3% 95%  
335 1.3% 95%  
336 0% 94%  
337 0.4% 94%  
338 0.5% 93%  
339 0% 93%  
340 0.1% 93%  
341 1.4% 93%  
342 6% 91%  
343 36% 86% Median
344 8% 49%  
345 0.5% 41%  
346 0.2% 41%  
347 0.9% 40%  
348 0.8% 40%  
349 12% 39%  
350 0.1% 27%  
351 0% 27%  
352 5% 27%  
353 0.2% 22%  
354 0.1% 21%  
355 0.1% 21%  
356 0.1% 21%  
357 0% 21%  
358 1.3% 21%  
359 0.3% 20%  
360 0.3% 19%  
361 0.3% 19%  
362 0.5% 19%  
363 0.4% 18%  
364 7% 18%  
365 0.5% 11%  
366 2% 11%  
367 0% 8%  
368 2% 8%  
369 0% 6%  
370 4% 6%  
371 0.9% 2%  
372 0.6% 2%  
373 0% 1.1%  
374 0% 1.0%  
375 0% 1.0%  
376 0.2% 1.0%  
377 0% 0.8%  
378 0.1% 0.8%  
379 0% 0.6%  
380 0% 0.6%  
381 0% 0.6%  
382 0.2% 0.6%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0% 0.4%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.8%  
124 0% 99.8%  
125 0% 99.8%  
126 0% 99.8%  
127 0% 99.8%  
128 0% 99.8%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.8%  
131 0.2% 99.7%  
132 3% 99.5%  
133 0.2% 97%  
134 0.8% 96%  
135 0.7% 96%  
136 0.2% 95%  
137 0% 95%  
138 0% 95%  
139 0.2% 95%  
140 0% 95%  
141 0% 94%  
142 0.1% 94%  
143 0.1% 94%  
144 0.1% 94%  
145 3% 94%  
146 0.2% 91%  
147 7% 91%  
148 0.4% 84%  
149 3% 84%  
150 0.6% 81%  
151 0.6% 80%  
152 0.1% 80%  
153 0.1% 80%  
154 0.6% 79%  
155 0.7% 79%  
156 0.1% 78%  
157 12% 78%  
158 0.2% 66%  
159 0% 65%  
160 36% 65% Median
161 0.1% 30%  
162 0.1% 29%  
163 0.1% 29%  
164 1.0% 29%  
165 0.1% 28%  
166 6% 28%  
167 1.2% 22%  
168 0.1% 21%  
169 0.2% 21%  
170 0.3% 21%  
171 0.6% 20%  
172 0.3% 20%  
173 7% 20%  
174 8% 12%  
175 0.1% 4%  
176 0.1% 4%  
177 0.2% 4%  
178 0.4% 4%  
179 0.7% 3%  
180 0.3% 3%  
181 0% 2%  
182 0.4% 2%  
183 0% 2%  
184 0.3% 2%  
185 0% 2%  
186 0.1% 2%  
187 0% 1.4%  
188 0% 1.4%  
189 0% 1.4%  
190 0% 1.4%  
191 0% 1.4%  
192 0% 1.4%  
193 0% 1.4%  
194 0% 1.4%  
195 0.7% 1.3%  
196 0% 0.7%  
197 0.1% 0.7%  
198 0% 0.6%  
199 0% 0.6%  
200 0% 0.6%  
201 0% 0.5%  
202 0% 0.5%  
203 0% 0.5%  
204 0% 0.5%  
205 0% 0.5%  
206 0% 0.5%  
207 0% 0.5%  
208 0% 0.5%  
209 0.3% 0.5%  
210 0% 0.2%  
211 0.1% 0.2%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0.1% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 6% 99.7%  
50 0.7% 94%  
51 0.1% 93%  
52 0.1% 93%  
53 0.1% 93%  
54 0.5% 93%  
55 0.5% 93%  
56 0.3% 92%  
57 0.9% 92%  
58 3% 91%  
59 3% 88%  
60 8% 85%  
61 0.4% 77%  
62 8% 77%  
63 21% 69% Median
64 1.1% 48%  
65 1.1% 47%  
66 2% 46%  
67 0.4% 44%  
68 0.5% 43%  
69 37% 43%  
70 3% 6%  
71 0.2% 3%  
72 0.1% 3%  
73 0.1% 3%  
74 0.4% 3%  
75 1.4% 2%  
76 0.1% 0.8%  
77 0.5% 0.7%  
78 0% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.0% 100%  
2 37% 99.0%  
3 55% 62% Median
4 0.1% 6%  
5 2% 6%  
6 0.1% 4%  
7 3% 4%  
8 0.1% 0.8%  
9 0% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.7%  
11 0% 0.6%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.8% Last Result
36 0% 99.8%  
37 0% 99.8%  
38 0% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.7%  
40 0.8% 98%  
41 0% 97%  
42 0% 97%  
43 2% 97%  
44 0% 95%  
45 8% 95%  
46 3% 87%  
47 0.1% 84%  
48 12% 84%  
49 37% 72% Median
50 7% 35%  
51 1.3% 28%  
52 14% 27%  
53 2% 13%  
54 11% 11%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.9% 1.2%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 13% 99.8% Last Result
5 7% 87%  
6 0.2% 80%  
7 72% 80% Median
8 1.1% 7%  
9 0.9% 6%  
10 0.2% 5%  
11 1.1% 5%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.9% 1.0%  
14 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 412 100% 401–428 396–430 391–433 367–438
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 412 100% 401–428 396–430 391–433 367–438
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 399 100% 393–421 390–425 385–429 355–439
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 392 100% 389–412 384–415 377–422 350–432
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 350 98.5% 348–373 342–377 333–382 306–389
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 343 97% 342–366 335–370 325–370 299–382
Conservative Party 317 343 97% 342–366 335–370 325–370 299–382
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 285 1.0% 262–287 258–294 254–303 247–330
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 278 0.1% 253–281 247–287 247–295 239–323
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 236 0% 216–240 209–244 202–251 197–279
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 229 0% 207–236 202–239 195–243 188–274
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 229 0% 207–236 202–239 195–243 188–274
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 216 0% 201–228 196–231 191–238 188–262
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 209 0% 193–223 187–224 184–232 181–255
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 167 0% 154–178 148–180 139–187 139–211
Labour Party – Change UK 262 160 0% 147–174 135–174 132–180 132–205
Labour Party 262 160 0% 147–174 135–174 132–180 132–205

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0.1% 100%  
365 0% 99.8%  
366 0% 99.8%  
367 0.3% 99.8%  
368 0% 99.5%  
369 0% 99.5%  
370 0% 99.5%  
371 0% 99.5%  
372 0% 99.5%  
373 0% 99.5%  
374 0.2% 99.4%  
375 0% 99.2%  
376 0.5% 99.2%  
377 0.1% 98.7%  
378 0% 98.6%  
379 0% 98.6%  
380 0% 98.6%  
381 0% 98.6%  
382 0% 98.6%  
383 0% 98.6%  
384 0% 98.6%  
385 0.1% 98.6%  
386 0.2% 98.5%  
387 0.3% 98%  
388 0.3% 98%  
389 0% 98%  
390 0.2% 98%  
391 0.1% 98%  
392 0.9% 97%  
393 0.6% 97%  
394 0.1% 96%  
395 0.4% 96%  
396 0.5% 95%  
397 0.4% 95%  
398 0% 95%  
399 0% 94%  
400 0.2% 94%  
401 7% 94%  
402 6% 88%  
403 0% 82%  
404 2% 82%  
405 0.3% 79%  
406 7% 79% Median
407 0.5% 72%  
408 0% 72%  
409 0.3% 72%  
410 0.3% 71%  
411 0.2% 71%  
412 47% 71%  
413 0% 23%  
414 0.1% 23%  
415 0% 23%  
416 1.3% 23%  
417 0.7% 22%  
418 0.1% 21%  
419 0.1% 21%  
420 0.2% 21%  
421 0.4% 21%  
422 0.8% 20%  
423 0% 20%  
424 0% 20%  
425 0.3% 20%  
426 3% 19%  
427 7% 17%  
428 2% 10%  
429 2% 8%  
430 2% 6%  
431 0.2% 5%  
432 0.5% 4%  
433 2% 4%  
434 0.2% 2%  
435 0% 2%  
436 1.1% 2%  
437 0.2% 0.8%  
438 0.2% 0.6%  
439 0% 0.4%  
440 0% 0.4%  
441 0% 0.4%  
442 0% 0.3%  
443 0% 0.3%  
444 0.1% 0.3%  
445 0% 0.2%  
446 0% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.2%  
449 0% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0.1% 100%  
365 0% 99.8%  
366 0% 99.8%  
367 0.3% 99.8%  
368 0% 99.5%  
369 0% 99.5%  
370 0% 99.5%  
371 0% 99.5%  
372 0% 99.5%  
373 0% 99.5%  
374 0.2% 99.4%  
375 0% 99.2%  
376 0.5% 99.2%  
377 0.1% 98.7%  
378 0% 98.6%  
379 0% 98.6%  
380 0% 98.6%  
381 0% 98.6%  
382 0% 98.6%  
383 0% 98.6%  
384 0% 98.6%  
385 0.1% 98.6%  
386 0.2% 98.5%  
387 0.3% 98%  
388 0.3% 98%  
389 0% 98%  
390 0.2% 98%  
391 0.1% 98%  
392 0.9% 97%  
393 0.6% 97%  
394 0.1% 96%  
395 0.4% 96%  
396 0.5% 95%  
397 0.4% 95%  
398 0% 95%  
399 0% 94%  
400 0.2% 94%  
401 7% 94%  
402 6% 88%  
403 0% 82%  
404 2% 82%  
405 0.3% 79%  
406 7% 79% Median
407 0.5% 72%  
408 0% 72%  
409 0.3% 72%  
410 0.3% 71%  
411 0.2% 71%  
412 47% 71%  
413 0% 23%  
414 0.1% 23%  
415 0% 23%  
416 1.3% 23%  
417 0.7% 22%  
418 0.1% 21%  
419 0.1% 21%  
420 0.2% 21%  
421 0.4% 21%  
422 0.8% 20%  
423 0% 20%  
424 0% 20%  
425 0.3% 20%  
426 3% 19%  
427 7% 17%  
428 2% 10%  
429 2% 8%  
430 2% 6%  
431 0.2% 5%  
432 0.5% 4%  
433 2% 4%  
434 0.2% 2%  
435 0% 2%  
436 1.1% 2%  
437 0.2% 0.8%  
438 0.2% 0.6%  
439 0% 0.4%  
440 0% 0.4%  
441 0% 0.4%  
442 0% 0.3%  
443 0% 0.3%  
444 0.1% 0.3%  
445 0% 0.2%  
446 0% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.2%  
449 0% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
347 0.1% 100%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0.2% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.7%  
355 0.3% 99.7%  
356 0% 99.4% Last Result
357 0.5% 99.4%  
358 0% 99.0%  
359 0% 99.0%  
360 0% 98.9%  
361 0% 98.9%  
362 0% 98.9%  
363 0% 98.9%  
364 0% 98.9%  
365 0.1% 98.9%  
366 0% 98.8%  
367 0% 98.7%  
368 0% 98.7%  
369 0% 98.7%  
370 0.1% 98.7%  
371 0% 98.6%  
372 0% 98.6%  
373 0% 98.6%  
374 0% 98.6%  
375 0.1% 98.6%  
376 0% 98%  
377 0% 98%  
378 0.1% 98%  
379 0% 98%  
380 0.2% 98%  
381 0.1% 98%  
382 0.1% 98%  
383 0.2% 98%  
384 0.2% 98%  
385 0.2% 98%  
386 1.5% 97%  
387 0.2% 96%  
388 0.3% 96%  
389 0.1% 95%  
390 0.4% 95%  
391 0.6% 95%  
392 0% 94%  
393 9% 94%  
394 0.3% 86%  
395 0.5% 85%  
396 3% 85%  
397 0.4% 82%  
398 0.1% 82%  
399 35% 82% Median
400 0% 47%  
401 0.3% 47%  
402 1.2% 47%  
403 6% 45%  
404 0.1% 40%  
405 0.2% 40%  
406 0.1% 39%  
407 5% 39%  
408 12% 34%  
409 0.5% 22%  
410 0.1% 21%  
411 0.2% 21%  
412 0.1% 21%  
413 2% 21%  
414 0.5% 19%  
415 0.3% 18%  
416 0.4% 18%  
417 0.1% 18%  
418 0.3% 17%  
419 7% 17%  
420 0.2% 10%  
421 2% 10%  
422 1.2% 8%  
423 0.1% 7%  
424 0.4% 7%  
425 2% 6%  
426 0% 4%  
427 0.1% 4%  
428 0% 4%  
429 2% 4%  
430 0% 2%  
431 0.2% 2%  
432 0% 2%  
433 0.9% 2%  
434 0% 0.7%  
435 0.1% 0.7%  
436 0.1% 0.6%  
437 0% 0.6%  
438 0% 0.5%  
439 0.1% 0.5%  
440 0.1% 0.5%  
441 0.1% 0.4%  
442 0% 0.3%  
443 0.2% 0.3%  
444 0% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.2%  
446 0.1% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
343 0.1% 100%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.8%  
349 0% 99.7%  
350 0.5% 99.7%  
351 0.3% 99.3%  
352 0% 99.0% Last Result
353 0% 98.9%  
354 0% 98.9%  
355 0% 98.9%  
356 0% 98.9%  
357 0% 98.9%  
358 0.1% 98.9%  
359 0% 98.8%  
360 0% 98.8%  
361 0% 98.8%  
362 0% 98.7%  
363 0.1% 98.7%  
364 0% 98.6%  
365 0% 98.6%  
366 0% 98.6%  
367 0.1% 98.6%  
368 0.1% 98.5%  
369 0% 98%  
370 0% 98%  
371 0.1% 98%  
372 0.1% 98%  
373 0% 98%  
374 0.2% 98%  
375 0.2% 98%  
376 0.3% 98%  
377 0.4% 98%  
378 0% 97%  
379 0.1% 97%  
380 0.1% 97%  
381 0.2% 97%  
382 1.4% 97%  
383 0.2% 95%  
384 0.7% 95%  
385 0.4% 94%  
386 0.5% 94%  
387 0.1% 94%  
388 0.3% 93%  
389 10% 93%  
390 0% 84%  
391 0.4% 83%  
392 36% 83% Median
393 0% 47%  
394 0.2% 47%  
395 0.6% 47%  
396 6% 46%  
397 0.2% 40%  
398 0.7% 40%  
399 0% 39%  
400 0.1% 39%  
401 13% 39%  
402 5% 27%  
403 0.1% 21%  
404 0.6% 21%  
405 0.1% 21%  
406 2% 20%  
407 0.4% 18%  
408 0.1% 18%  
409 0.5% 18%  
410 0.4% 17%  
411 0.4% 17%  
412 7% 16%  
413 2% 10%  
414 2% 8%  
415 1.1% 6%  
416 0.1% 4%  
417 0% 4%  
418 0% 4%  
419 0% 4%  
420 0% 4%  
421 0% 4%  
422 2% 4%  
423 0% 2%  
424 0.9% 2%  
425 0.1% 0.8%  
426 0.1% 0.8%  
427 0% 0.7%  
428 0% 0.7%  
429 0.1% 0.6%  
430 0% 0.6%  
431 0% 0.6%  
432 0.1% 0.6%  
433 0% 0.4%  
434 0% 0.4%  
435 0% 0.4%  
436 0.2% 0.3%  
437 0% 0.2%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0.1% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0.1% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.2% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.7%  
306 0.8% 99.7%  
307 0% 99.0%  
308 0% 99.0%  
309 0% 99.0%  
310 0% 98.9%  
311 0% 98.9%  
312 0.1% 98.9%  
313 0% 98.8%  
314 0% 98.8%  
315 0% 98.8%  
316 0% 98.8%  
317 0.1% 98.8%  
318 0.1% 98.7%  
319 0% 98.6%  
320 0% 98.6%  
321 0% 98.6% Last Result
322 0% 98.6%  
323 0% 98.6%  
324 0% 98.6%  
325 0% 98.6%  
326 0.2% 98.5% Majority
327 0.1% 98%  
328 0% 98%  
329 0.2% 98%  
330 0.1% 98%  
331 0% 98%  
332 0.3% 98%  
333 0.3% 98%  
334 0.1% 97%  
335 0% 97%  
336 0.1% 97%  
337 0.7% 97%  
338 0.1% 96%  
339 0.2% 96%  
340 0.5% 96%  
341 0.4% 96%  
342 1.2% 95%  
343 0.5% 94%  
344 0.1% 93%  
345 2% 93%  
346 0.1% 92%  
347 1.4% 92%  
348 8% 90%  
349 6% 82%  
350 35% 76% Median
351 0.2% 42%  
352 1.1% 41%  
353 0.1% 40%  
354 0.9% 40%  
355 0.4% 39%  
356 12% 39%  
357 5% 27%  
358 0.3% 22%  
359 0.1% 22%  
360 0.1% 22%  
361 0.1% 21%  
362 0% 21%  
363 0% 21%  
364 0.1% 21%  
365 1.4% 21%  
366 0.3% 20%  
367 0.1% 19%  
368 0.2% 19%  
369 0.4% 19%  
370 0.5% 19%  
371 7% 18%  
372 0.1% 12%  
373 2% 11%  
374 0% 9%  
375 2% 9%  
376 0.6% 7%  
377 2% 7%  
378 0% 4%  
379 0.6% 4%  
380 0.7% 4%  
381 0.1% 3%  
382 2% 3%  
383 0.3% 1.1%  
384 0% 0.8%  
385 0% 0.8%  
386 0% 0.7%  
387 0.1% 0.7%  
388 0% 0.6%  
389 0.2% 0.6%  
390 0.1% 0.4%  
391 0% 0.4%  
392 0.1% 0.3%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0.1% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0.1% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0.6% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.3%  
301 0% 99.3%  
302 0.3% 99.3%  
303 0% 99.0%  
304 0% 98.9%  
305 0.1% 98.9%  
306 0% 98.8%  
307 0% 98.8%  
308 0% 98.8%  
309 0% 98.8%  
310 0.1% 98.8%  
311 0% 98.7%  
312 0% 98.7%  
313 0% 98.7%  
314 0% 98.6%  
315 0% 98.6%  
316 0% 98.6%  
317 0% 98.6% Last Result
318 0.1% 98.6%  
319 0.1% 98.5%  
320 0.1% 98%  
321 0.2% 98%  
322 0.1% 98%  
323 0.2% 98%  
324 0% 98%  
325 0.3% 98%  
326 0.1% 97% Majority
327 0.2% 97%  
328 0.2% 97%  
329 0.2% 97%  
330 0.5% 97%  
331 0.3% 96%  
332 0.1% 96%  
333 0.5% 96%  
334 0.3% 95%  
335 1.3% 95%  
336 0% 94%  
337 0.4% 94%  
338 0.5% 93%  
339 0% 93%  
340 0.1% 93%  
341 1.4% 93%  
342 6% 91%  
343 36% 86% Median
344 8% 49%  
345 0.5% 41%  
346 0.2% 41%  
347 0.9% 40%  
348 0.8% 40%  
349 12% 39%  
350 0.1% 27%  
351 0% 27%  
352 5% 27%  
353 0.2% 22%  
354 0.1% 21%  
355 0.1% 21%  
356 0.1% 21%  
357 0% 21%  
358 1.3% 21%  
359 0.3% 20%  
360 0.3% 19%  
361 0.3% 19%  
362 0.5% 19%  
363 0.4% 18%  
364 7% 18%  
365 0.5% 11%  
366 2% 11%  
367 0% 8%  
368 2% 8%  
369 0% 6%  
370 4% 6%  
371 0.9% 2%  
372 0.6% 2%  
373 0% 1.1%  
374 0% 1.0%  
375 0% 1.0%  
376 0.2% 1.0%  
377 0% 0.8%  
378 0.1% 0.8%  
379 0% 0.6%  
380 0% 0.6%  
381 0% 0.6%  
382 0.2% 0.6%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0% 0.4%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0.1% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0.6% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.3%  
301 0% 99.3%  
302 0.3% 99.3%  
303 0% 99.0%  
304 0% 98.9%  
305 0.1% 98.9%  
306 0% 98.8%  
307 0% 98.8%  
308 0% 98.8%  
309 0% 98.8%  
310 0.1% 98.8%  
311 0% 98.7%  
312 0% 98.7%  
313 0% 98.7%  
314 0% 98.6%  
315 0% 98.6%  
316 0% 98.6%  
317 0% 98.6% Last Result
318 0.1% 98.6%  
319 0.1% 98.5%  
320 0.1% 98%  
321 0.2% 98%  
322 0.1% 98%  
323 0.2% 98%  
324 0% 98%  
325 0.3% 98%  
326 0.1% 97% Majority
327 0.2% 97%  
328 0.2% 97%  
329 0.2% 97%  
330 0.5% 97%  
331 0.3% 96%  
332 0.1% 96%  
333 0.5% 96%  
334 0.3% 95%  
335 1.3% 95%  
336 0% 94%  
337 0.4% 94%  
338 0.5% 93%  
339 0% 93%  
340 0.1% 93%  
341 1.4% 93%  
342 6% 91%  
343 36% 86% Median
344 8% 49%  
345 0.5% 41%  
346 0.2% 41%  
347 0.9% 40%  
348 0.8% 40%  
349 12% 39%  
350 0.1% 27%  
351 0% 27%  
352 5% 27%  
353 0.2% 22%  
354 0.1% 21%  
355 0.1% 21%  
356 0.1% 21%  
357 0% 21%  
358 1.3% 21%  
359 0.3% 20%  
360 0.3% 19%  
361 0.3% 19%  
362 0.5% 19%  
363 0.4% 18%  
364 7% 18%  
365 0.5% 11%  
366 2% 11%  
367 0% 8%  
368 2% 8%  
369 0% 6%  
370 4% 6%  
371 0.9% 2%  
372 0.6% 2%  
373 0% 1.1%  
374 0% 1.0%  
375 0% 1.0%  
376 0.2% 1.0%  
377 0% 0.8%  
378 0.1% 0.8%  
379 0% 0.6%  
380 0% 0.6%  
381 0% 0.6%  
382 0.2% 0.6%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0% 0.4%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.8%  
234 0% 99.8%  
235 0% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.8%  
237 0% 99.8%  
238 0% 99.8%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.7%  
243 0% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.7%  
245 0% 99.6%  
246 0.1% 99.6%  
247 0.2% 99.5%  
248 0.1% 99.4%  
249 0% 99.3%  
250 0% 99.3%  
251 0.2% 99.3%  
252 0% 99.0%  
253 0% 99.0%  
254 2% 99.0%  
255 0.8% 97%  
256 0.6% 96%  
257 0% 96%  
258 1.1% 96%  
259 2% 94%  
260 2% 93%  
261 0.2% 90%  
262 0.7% 90%  
263 0.3% 89%  
264 0.3% 89%  
265 7% 89%  
266 0.3% 81%  
267 0% 81%  
268 0.3% 81%  
269 0.3% 81%  
270 1.3% 80%  
271 0.2% 79%  
272 0.1% 79%  
273 0.1% 79%  
274 0.5% 79%  
275 0.1% 78%  
276 0.4% 78%  
277 5% 78%  
278 0.1% 72%  
279 12% 72% Median
280 0.8% 61%  
281 0.1% 60%  
282 0.9% 60%  
283 0.5% 59%  
284 0% 58%  
285 43% 58%  
286 1.4% 16%  
287 7% 14%  
288 0.1% 7%  
289 0.1% 7%  
290 0.1% 7%  
291 0.4% 7%  
292 0.3% 6%  
293 0.1% 6%  
294 1.2% 6%  
295 0.2% 5%  
296 0.4% 5%  
297 0.4% 4%  
298 0.5% 4%  
299 0.2% 3%  
300 0% 3%  
301 0.2% 3%  
302 0.3% 3%  
303 0.4% 3%  
304 0.1% 2%  
305 0.2% 2%  
306 0.1% 2%  
307 0.1% 2%  
308 0.2% 2%  
309 0% 2%  
310 0% 1.5%  
311 0% 1.4%  
312 0% 1.4%  
313 0% 1.4% Last Result
314 0% 1.4%  
315 0% 1.4%  
316 0.1% 1.4%  
317 0% 1.3%  
318 0% 1.3%  
319 0.1% 1.3%  
320 0% 1.2%  
321 0% 1.2%  
322 0% 1.2%  
323 0% 1.2%  
324 0.1% 1.2%  
325 0% 1.1%  
326 0% 1.0% Majority
327 0.3% 1.0%  
328 0% 0.7%  
329 0% 0.7%  
330 0.5% 0.7%  
331 0.1% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0.1% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0% 99.8%  
228 0% 99.8%  
229 0% 99.8%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0% 99.8%  
233 0% 99.8%  
234 0% 99.8%  
235 0% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.7%  
237 0.1% 99.7%  
238 0.1% 99.6%  
239 0.1% 99.5%  
240 0.2% 99.5%  
241 0.1% 99.3%  
242 0% 99.2%  
243 0.1% 99.2%  
244 0.2% 99.1%  
245 0% 98.9%  
246 0.8% 98.9%  
247 4% 98%  
248 0% 94%  
249 0.5% 94%  
250 0.1% 94%  
251 1.1% 94%  
252 0.8% 93%  
253 2% 92%  
254 0% 90%  
255 0.9% 89%  
256 0.4% 89%  
257 0.4% 88%  
258 7% 88%  
259 0% 81%  
260 0% 81%  
261 0% 81%  
262 0.3% 81%  
263 1.4% 80%  
264 0.3% 79%  
265 0.2% 79%  
266 0.1% 79%  
267 0.5% 79%  
268 0.1% 78%  
269 0.1% 78%  
270 0% 78%  
271 0.5% 78%  
272 17% 77% Median
273 0.1% 60%  
274 0.1% 60%  
275 1.0% 60%  
276 0.7% 59%  
277 0% 58%  
278 35% 58%  
279 0.1% 24%  
280 6% 24%  
281 8% 18%  
282 1.4% 10%  
283 2% 8%  
284 0.2% 7%  
285 0% 6%  
286 0.4% 6%  
287 1.2% 6%  
288 0.4% 5%  
289 0.5% 4%  
290 0.2% 4%  
291 0.5% 4%  
292 0.3% 3%  
293 0.1% 3%  
294 0.1% 3%  
295 0.4% 3%  
296 0.1% 2%  
297 0.3% 2%  
298 0% 2%  
299 0.1% 2%  
300 0.1% 2%  
301 0.1% 2%  
302 0% 2%  
303 0.2% 2%  
304 0% 1.4%  
305 0% 1.4%  
306 0% 1.4%  
307 0% 1.4%  
308 0% 1.4%  
309 0% 1.4% Last Result
310 0% 1.4%  
311 0% 1.4%  
312 0.1% 1.3%  
313 0% 1.2%  
314 0% 1.2%  
315 0% 1.2%  
316 0% 1.2%  
317 0.1% 1.2%  
318 0% 1.1%  
319 0% 1.1%  
320 0% 1.1%  
321 0% 1.0%  
322 0% 1.0%  
323 0.8% 1.0%  
324 0% 0.3%  
325 0.2% 0.3%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0.1% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
187 0% 100%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0.1% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.8%  
192 0.1% 99.8%  
193 0.2% 99.8%  
194 0.1% 99.6%  
195 0% 99.5%  
196 0% 99.5%  
197 0.1% 99.5%  
198 0.1% 99.4%  
199 0% 99.3%  
200 0.2% 99.3%  
201 0% 99.1%  
202 3% 99.0%  
203 0% 97%  
204 0.1% 97%  
205 0.2% 96%  
206 0.6% 96%  
207 0% 96%  
208 0% 96%  
209 1.1% 96%  
210 0% 95%  
211 0.1% 95%  
212 0.3% 94%  
213 0% 94%  
214 2% 94%  
215 0% 92%  
216 2% 92%  
217 7% 90%  
218 0% 83%  
219 0.1% 83%  
220 0.6% 83%  
221 0.2% 82%  
222 2% 82%  
223 0.3% 80%  
224 0.5% 79%  
225 0.5% 79%  
226 0.2% 78%  
227 17% 78%  
228 0.8% 61%  
229 0.1% 60%  
230 0.7% 60% Median
231 0.3% 60%  
232 0.1% 59%  
233 6% 59%  
234 0.1% 53%  
235 0.1% 53%  
236 35% 53%  
237 2% 18%  
238 0.4% 17%  
239 1.4% 16%  
240 8% 15%  
241 0.3% 7%  
242 0.1% 6%  
243 0.7% 6%  
244 0.6% 6%  
245 0.3% 5%  
246 0.2% 5%  
247 1.2% 4%  
248 0.3% 3%  
249 0.1% 3%  
250 0.1% 3%  
251 0.4% 3%  
252 0% 2%  
253 0.3% 2%  
254 0.4% 2%  
255 0.1% 2%  
256 0% 2%  
257 0% 2%  
258 0.1% 2%  
259 0% 2%  
260 0% 2%  
261 0.1% 1.5%  
262 0% 1.4%  
263 0% 1.4%  
264 0% 1.4%  
265 0% 1.4%  
266 0.1% 1.3%  
267 0% 1.3%  
268 0% 1.3%  
269 0% 1.2%  
270 0% 1.2%  
271 0.1% 1.2%  
272 0% 1.1%  
273 0% 1.1%  
274 0% 1.1%  
275 0% 1.0%  
276 0% 1.0%  
277 0% 1.0%  
278 0.3% 1.0% Last Result
279 0.5% 0.7%  
280 0% 0.3%  
281 0.1% 0.3%  
282 0.1% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0.1% 0.1%  
287 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.8%  
185 0.1% 99.8%  
186 0.2% 99.7%  
187 0% 99.6%  
188 0% 99.5%  
189 0.1% 99.5%  
190 0% 99.4%  
191 0.1% 99.4%  
192 0.1% 99.3%  
193 1.0% 99.3%  
194 0% 98%  
195 2% 98%  
196 0.1% 96%  
197 0% 96%  
198 0.2% 96%  
199 0.5% 96%  
200 0% 96%  
201 0% 96%  
202 1.1% 96%  
203 0% 94%  
204 2% 94%  
205 0.1% 92%  
206 0% 92%  
207 2% 92%  
208 0.4% 90%  
209 0.4% 90%  
210 7% 89%  
211 0.1% 82%  
212 0.4% 82%  
213 0.6% 82%  
214 0% 81%  
215 2% 81%  
216 0.3% 79%  
217 0.5% 79%  
218 0.1% 79%  
219 0.4% 78%  
220 12% 78%  
221 0.8% 66%  
222 5% 65%  
223 0.1% 60% Median
224 0.1% 60%  
225 0.3% 60%  
226 6% 59%  
227 0.2% 53%  
228 0.1% 53%  
229 35% 53%  
230 0.2% 18%  
231 0.1% 18%  
232 0.4% 18%  
233 3% 17%  
234 0.5% 15%  
235 2% 14%  
236 7% 13%  
237 0.6% 6%  
238 0.1% 5%  
239 0.5% 5%  
240 0.1% 5%  
241 0.4% 4%  
242 0.1% 4%  
243 2% 4%  
244 0.1% 2%  
245 0.2% 2%  
246 0.1% 2%  
247 0.1% 2%  
248 0.1% 2%  
249 0.2% 2%  
250 0% 2%  
251 0% 2%  
252 0% 2%  
253 0% 1.5%  
254 0% 1.5%  
255 0% 1.4%  
256 0% 1.4%  
257 0% 1.4%  
258 0% 1.4%  
259 0.1% 1.4%  
260 0% 1.3%  
261 0% 1.3%  
262 0% 1.3%  
263 0% 1.3%  
264 0.1% 1.2%  
265 0% 1.1%  
266 0% 1.1%  
267 0% 1.1%  
268 0% 1.1%  
269 0% 1.1%  
270 0% 1.1%  
271 0% 1.0%  
272 0.5% 1.0%  
273 0% 0.6%  
274 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
275 0% 0.3%  
276 0.2% 0.3%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0.1% 0.1%  
283 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.8%  
185 0.1% 99.8%  
186 0.2% 99.7%  
187 0% 99.6%  
188 0% 99.5%  
189 0.1% 99.5%  
190 0% 99.4%  
191 0.1% 99.4%  
192 0.1% 99.3%  
193 1.0% 99.3%  
194 0% 98%  
195 2% 98%  
196 0.1% 96%  
197 0% 96%  
198 0.2% 96%  
199 0.5% 96%  
200 0% 96%  
201 0% 96%  
202 1.1% 96%  
203 0% 94%  
204 2% 94%  
205 0.1% 92%  
206 0% 92%  
207 2% 92%  
208 0.4% 90%  
209 0.4% 90%  
210 7% 89%  
211 0.1% 82%  
212 0.4% 82%  
213 0.6% 82%  
214 0% 81%  
215 2% 81%  
216 0.3% 79%  
217 0.5% 79%  
218 0.1% 79%  
219 0.4% 78%  
220 12% 78%  
221 0.8% 66%  
222 5% 65%  
223 0.1% 60% Median
224 0.1% 60%  
225 0.3% 60%  
226 6% 59%  
227 0.2% 53%  
228 0.1% 53%  
229 35% 53%  
230 0.2% 18%  
231 0.1% 18%  
232 0.4% 18%  
233 3% 17%  
234 0.5% 15%  
235 2% 14%  
236 7% 13%  
237 0.6% 6%  
238 0.1% 5%  
239 0.5% 5%  
240 0.1% 5%  
241 0.4% 4%  
242 0.1% 4%  
243 2% 4%  
244 0.1% 2%  
245 0.2% 2%  
246 0.1% 2%  
247 0.1% 2%  
248 0.1% 2%  
249 0.2% 2%  
250 0% 2%  
251 0% 2%  
252 0% 2%  
253 0% 1.5%  
254 0% 1.5%  
255 0% 1.4%  
256 0% 1.4%  
257 0% 1.4%  
258 0% 1.4%  
259 0.1% 1.4%  
260 0% 1.3%  
261 0% 1.3%  
262 0% 1.3%  
263 0% 1.3%  
264 0.1% 1.2%  
265 0% 1.1%  
266 0% 1.1%  
267 0% 1.1%  
268 0% 1.1%  
269 0% 1.1%  
270 0% 1.1%  
271 0% 1.0%  
272 0.5% 1.0%  
273 0% 0.6%  
274 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
275 0% 0.3%  
276 0.2% 0.3%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0.1% 0.1%  
283 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
167 0% 100%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0% 99.9%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.8%  
178 0% 99.8%  
179 0% 99.8%  
180 0.1% 99.8%  
181 0% 99.7%  
182 0% 99.7%  
183 0% 99.7%  
184 0% 99.7%  
185 0% 99.7%  
186 0% 99.6%  
187 0.1% 99.6%  
188 1.1% 99.6%  
189 0.2% 98.5%  
190 0% 98%  
191 2% 98%  
192 0.2% 97%  
193 0.1% 96%  
194 0.4% 96%  
195 0% 96%  
196 1.3% 96%  
197 0.4% 95%  
198 0.8% 94%  
199 0.2% 93%  
200 3% 93%  
201 0.5% 90%  
202 9% 90%  
203 0% 80%  
204 0.2% 80%  
205 0% 80%  
206 0.6% 80%  
207 0.5% 80%  
208 0.1% 79%  
209 0.3% 79%  
210 0.2% 79%  
211 0.7% 79%  
212 2% 78%  
213 0.1% 76%  
214 0% 76%  
215 0.1% 76%  
216 46% 76% Median
217 1.3% 30%  
218 0% 28%  
219 0.3% 28%  
220 0.2% 28%  
221 0.1% 28%  
222 0.1% 28%  
223 7% 28%  
224 0.2% 20%  
225 2% 20%  
226 0% 18%  
227 6% 18%  
228 7% 12%  
229 0.3% 6%  
230 0% 5%  
231 0.4% 5%  
232 0.4% 5%  
233 0.3% 5%  
234 0.2% 4%  
235 0.3% 4%  
236 0.3% 4%  
237 0.8% 3%  
238 0.2% 3%  
239 0.1% 2%  
240 0.2% 2%  
241 0.2% 2%  
242 0.3% 2%  
243 0.3% 2%  
244 0.1% 1.4%  
245 0% 1.4%  
246 0% 1.4%  
247 0% 1.4%  
248 0% 1.4%  
249 0% 1.3%  
250 0% 1.3%  
251 0% 1.3%  
252 0.1% 1.3%  
253 0.5% 1.2%  
254 0% 0.8%  
255 0.2% 0.8%  
256 0% 0.6%  
257 0% 0.5%  
258 0% 0.5%  
259 0% 0.5%  
260 0% 0.5%  
261 0% 0.5%  
262 0.3% 0.5%  
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.2%  
265 0.1% 0.2%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.8%  
173 0.1% 99.8%  
174 0% 99.7%  
175 0% 99.7%  
176 0% 99.7%  
177 0% 99.6%  
178 0% 99.6%  
179 0% 99.6%  
180 0% 99.6%  
181 1.2% 99.5%  
182 0.2% 98%  
183 0.4% 98%  
184 2% 98%  
185 0.2% 96%  
186 0.1% 96%  
187 0.9% 96%  
188 2% 95%  
189 0.8% 93%  
190 0% 92%  
191 0.8% 92%  
192 0.1% 91%  
193 2% 91%  
194 0.2% 90%  
195 9% 90%  
196 0.1% 80%  
197 0.4% 80%  
198 0.1% 80%  
199 0.7% 80%  
200 0.1% 79%  
201 0.1% 79%  
202 0.3% 79%  
203 0.1% 79%  
204 0.2% 79%  
205 0.5% 78%  
206 0.1% 78%  
207 0.7% 78%  
208 1.4% 77%  
209 46% 76% Median
210 0.1% 29%  
211 0.1% 29%  
212 0.1% 29%  
213 1.3% 29%  
214 0.1% 28%  
215 0.2% 28%  
216 0% 27%  
217 0.1% 27%  
218 1.1% 27%  
219 7% 26%  
220 6% 19%  
221 3% 13%  
222 0.1% 11%  
223 5% 10%  
224 0.2% 5%  
225 0.7% 5%  
226 0.1% 4%  
227 0.3% 4%  
228 0.1% 4%  
229 0% 4%  
230 0.3% 4%  
231 0.2% 3%  
232 0.8% 3%  
233 0.5% 2%  
234 0% 2%  
235 0% 2%  
236 0.2% 2%  
237 0% 2%  
238 0.2% 2%  
239 0% 1.4%  
240 0% 1.4%  
241 0% 1.4%  
242 0% 1.3%  
243 0% 1.3%  
244 0% 1.3%  
245 0% 1.3%  
246 0.5% 1.3%  
247 0% 0.8%  
248 0.2% 0.8%  
249 0% 0.6%  
250 0% 0.6%  
251 0% 0.6%  
252 0% 0.6%  
253 0% 0.5%  
254 0% 0.5%  
255 0% 0.5%  
256 0% 0.5%  
257 0% 0.5%  
258 0.3% 0.5%  
259 0% 0.2%  
260 0.1% 0.2%  
261 0.1% 0.1%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.8%  
132 0% 99.8%  
133 0% 99.8%  
134 0% 99.8%  
135 0% 99.8%  
136 0% 99.8%  
137 0% 99.8%  
138 0.2% 99.8%  
139 3% 99.6%  
140 0.2% 97%  
141 0.1% 97%  
142 0% 97%  
143 1.0% 96%  
144 0.1% 95%  
145 0.1% 95%  
146 0.2% 95%  
147 0.1% 95%  
148 0.6% 95%  
149 0.1% 94%  
150 0.1% 94%  
151 0% 94%  
152 2% 94%  
153 0.2% 93%  
154 7% 92%  
155 0.2% 86%  
156 3% 86%  
157 2% 83%  
158 0.7% 81%  
159 0.1% 80%  
160 0.1% 80%  
161 1.1% 80%  
162 1.2% 79%  
163 0.3% 78%  
164 13% 78%  
165 0.1% 65%  
166 0% 65%  
167 35% 64% Median
168 0% 30%  
169 0.1% 30%  
170 0.3% 30%  
171 0.9% 29%  
172 0% 28%  
173 6% 28%  
174 1.2% 23%  
175 0.3% 21%  
176 0.1% 21%  
177 2% 21%  
178 14% 19%  
179 0.1% 5%  
180 0.3% 5%  
181 0.7% 5%  
182 0.1% 4%  
183 1.1% 4%  
184 0.2% 3%  
185 0.1% 3%  
186 0.1% 3%  
187 0.5% 3%  
188 0% 2%  
189 0.2% 2%  
190 0% 2%  
191 0.1% 2%  
192 0% 2%  
193 0.1% 2%  
194 0.2% 2%  
195 0% 1.4%  
196 0% 1.4%  
197 0% 1.4%  
198 0% 1.4%  
199 0% 1.4%  
200 0% 1.4%  
201 0% 1.3%  
202 0.7% 1.3%  
203 0.1% 0.7%  
204 0% 0.6%  
205 0% 0.6%  
206 0% 0.6%  
207 0% 0.5%  
208 0% 0.5%  
209 0% 0.5%  
210 0% 0.5%  
211 0% 0.5%  
212 0% 0.5%  
213 0.3% 0.5%  
214 0% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.2%  
216 0.1% 0.2%  
217 0.1% 0.1%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.8%  
124 0% 99.8%  
125 0% 99.8%  
126 0% 99.8%  
127 0% 99.8%  
128 0% 99.8%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.8%  
131 0.2% 99.7%  
132 3% 99.5%  
133 0.2% 97%  
134 0.8% 96%  
135 0.7% 96%  
136 0.2% 95%  
137 0% 95%  
138 0% 95%  
139 0.2% 95%  
140 0% 95%  
141 0% 94%  
142 0.1% 94%  
143 0.1% 94%  
144 0.1% 94%  
145 3% 94%  
146 0.2% 91%  
147 7% 91%  
148 0.4% 84%  
149 3% 84%  
150 0.6% 81%  
151 0.6% 80%  
152 0.1% 80%  
153 0.1% 80%  
154 0.6% 79%  
155 0.7% 79%  
156 0.1% 78%  
157 12% 78%  
158 0.2% 66%  
159 0% 65%  
160 36% 65% Median
161 0.1% 30%  
162 0.1% 29%  
163 0.1% 29%  
164 1.0% 29%  
165 0.1% 28%  
166 6% 28%  
167 1.2% 22%  
168 0.1% 21%  
169 0.2% 21%  
170 0.3% 21%  
171 0.6% 20%  
172 0.3% 20%  
173 7% 20%  
174 8% 12%  
175 0.1% 4%  
176 0.1% 4%  
177 0.2% 4%  
178 0.4% 4%  
179 0.7% 3%  
180 0.3% 3%  
181 0% 2%  
182 0.4% 2%  
183 0% 2%  
184 0.3% 2%  
185 0% 2%  
186 0.1% 2%  
187 0% 1.4%  
188 0% 1.4%  
189 0% 1.4%  
190 0% 1.4%  
191 0% 1.4%  
192 0% 1.4%  
193 0% 1.4%  
194 0% 1.4%  
195 0.7% 1.3%  
196 0% 0.7%  
197 0.1% 0.7%  
198 0% 0.6%  
199 0% 0.6%  
200 0% 0.6%  
201 0% 0.5%  
202 0% 0.5%  
203 0% 0.5%  
204 0% 0.5%  
205 0% 0.5%  
206 0% 0.5%  
207 0% 0.5%  
208 0% 0.5%  
209 0.3% 0.5%  
210 0% 0.2%  
211 0.1% 0.2%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0.1% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.8%  
124 0% 99.8%  
125 0% 99.8%  
126 0% 99.8%  
127 0% 99.8%  
128 0% 99.8%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.8%  
131 0.2% 99.7%  
132 3% 99.5%  
133 0.2% 97%  
134 0.8% 96%  
135 0.7% 96%  
136 0.2% 95%  
137 0% 95%  
138 0% 95%  
139 0.2% 95%  
140 0% 95%  
141 0% 94%  
142 0.1% 94%  
143 0.1% 94%  
144 0.1% 94%  
145 3% 94%  
146 0.2% 91%  
147 7% 91%  
148 0.4% 84%  
149 3% 84%  
150 0.6% 81%  
151 0.6% 80%  
152 0.1% 80%  
153 0.1% 80%  
154 0.6% 79%  
155 0.7% 79%  
156 0.1% 78%  
157 12% 78%  
158 0.2% 66%  
159 0% 65%  
160 36% 65% Median
161 0.1% 30%  
162 0.1% 29%  
163 0.1% 29%  
164 1.0% 29%  
165 0.1% 28%  
166 6% 28%  
167 1.2% 22%  
168 0.1% 21%  
169 0.2% 21%  
170 0.3% 21%  
171 0.6% 20%  
172 0.3% 20%  
173 7% 20%  
174 8% 12%  
175 0.1% 4%  
176 0.1% 4%  
177 0.2% 4%  
178 0.4% 4%  
179 0.7% 3%  
180 0.3% 3%  
181 0% 2%  
182 0.4% 2%  
183 0% 2%  
184 0.3% 2%  
185 0% 2%  
186 0.1% 2%  
187 0% 1.4%  
188 0% 1.4%  
189 0% 1.4%  
190 0% 1.4%  
191 0% 1.4%  
192 0% 1.4%  
193 0% 1.4%  
194 0% 1.4%  
195 0.7% 1.3%  
196 0% 0.7%  
197 0.1% 0.7%  
198 0% 0.6%  
199 0% 0.6%  
200 0% 0.6%  
201 0% 0.5%  
202 0% 0.5%  
203 0% 0.5%  
204 0% 0.5%  
205 0% 0.5%  
206 0% 0.5%  
207 0% 0.5%  
208 0% 0.5%  
209 0.3% 0.5%  
210 0% 0.2%  
211 0.1% 0.2%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0.1% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations