Opinion Poll by Opinium for The Observer, 11–13 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 37.2% 35.8–38.6% 35.4–39.0% 35.1–39.3% 34.4–40.0%
Labour Party 40.0% 25.1% 23.9–26.4% 23.6–26.8% 23.3–27.1% 22.7–27.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 16.1% 15.1–17.2% 14.8–17.5% 14.5–17.8% 14.1–18.3%
Brexit Party 0.0% 13.1% 12.2–14.1% 11.9–14.4% 11.7–14.6% 11.2–15.1%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3%
Green Party 1.6% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–3.0%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 352 340–356 329–356 317–357 312–369
Labour Party 262 146 143–159 143–165 125–177 122–183
Liberal Democrats 12 46 46–48 44–50 42–50 41–57
Brexit Party 0 28 26–33 23–37 20–40 18–50
Scottish National Party 35 51 50–52 43–52 43–53 41–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 8 6–8 5–9 4–10 4–11
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0% 99.8%  
308 0% 99.8%  
309 0% 99.8%  
310 0% 99.8%  
311 0% 99.7%  
312 0.7% 99.7%  
313 0.5% 99.1%  
314 0% 98.5%  
315 0% 98.5%  
316 0% 98%  
317 1.3% 98% Last Result
318 0.2% 97%  
319 0% 97%  
320 0.3% 97%  
321 0.2% 97%  
322 0.2% 96%  
323 0% 96%  
324 0.4% 96%  
325 0.1% 96%  
326 0.1% 96% Majority
327 0.5% 96%  
328 0% 95%  
329 0.2% 95%  
330 0.3% 95%  
331 0.2% 95%  
332 0.1% 94%  
333 0% 94%  
334 0% 94%  
335 0.1% 94%  
336 1.5% 94%  
337 0.1% 93%  
338 0% 93%  
339 0.1% 93%  
340 11% 92%  
341 5% 81%  
342 0.2% 76%  
343 0.3% 76%  
344 0.1% 76%  
345 0.9% 76%  
346 4% 75%  
347 0.5% 71%  
348 2% 70%  
349 0.1% 68%  
350 0.2% 68%  
351 0% 68%  
352 53% 68% Median
353 0% 14%  
354 0.9% 14%  
355 0.3% 13%  
356 10% 13%  
357 0.1% 3%  
358 0.1% 2%  
359 0% 2%  
360 0.1% 2%  
361 0% 2%  
362 0% 2%  
363 0.2% 2%  
364 0.1% 2%  
365 0% 2%  
366 0% 2%  
367 1.4% 2%  
368 0% 0.5%  
369 0.1% 0.5%  
370 0% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.4%  
372 0.2% 0.3%  
373 0.1% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 1.1% 100%  
123 0.1% 98.9%  
124 0.2% 98.8%  
125 1.5% 98.7%  
126 0% 97%  
127 0.1% 97%  
128 0% 97%  
129 0% 97%  
130 0% 97%  
131 0.1% 97%  
132 0.1% 97%  
133 0.1% 97%  
134 0.1% 97%  
135 0% 97%  
136 0.1% 97%  
137 0.1% 97%  
138 0.2% 97%  
139 0% 96%  
140 0.1% 96%  
141 0.1% 96%  
142 0.1% 96%  
143 9% 96%  
144 0% 87%  
145 0% 87%  
146 55% 87% Median
147 0.1% 31%  
148 0.1% 31%  
149 0.2% 31%  
150 0% 31%  
151 0% 31%  
152 0% 31%  
153 0.2% 31%  
154 0.1% 31%  
155 0.8% 31%  
156 0.6% 30%  
157 18% 29%  
158 0.3% 12%  
159 4% 11%  
160 0.2% 7%  
161 0.5% 7%  
162 0.5% 6%  
163 0% 6%  
164 0.4% 6%  
165 0.3% 5%  
166 0.6% 5%  
167 0% 4%  
168 0.1% 4%  
169 0% 4%  
170 0% 4%  
171 0% 4%  
172 0.1% 4%  
173 0.1% 4%  
174 0.4% 4%  
175 0.2% 4%  
176 0.3% 3%  
177 1.1% 3%  
178 0% 2%  
179 0% 2%  
180 0% 2%  
181 0% 2%  
182 1.1% 2%  
183 0.4% 0.9%  
184 0% 0.5%  
185 0.1% 0.5%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0% 0.3%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.2%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0.1% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 0% 99.5%  
40 0% 99.5%  
41 0.4% 99.5%  
42 4% 99.1%  
43 0.3% 95%  
44 0.3% 95%  
45 0.3% 95%  
46 57% 95% Median
47 15% 38%  
48 13% 23%  
49 2% 10%  
50 6% 7%  
51 0% 2%  
52 0% 2%  
53 0.2% 2%  
54 0% 2%  
55 0.7% 1.5%  
56 0.1% 0.8%  
57 0.5% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.7%  
18 0.9% 99.7%  
19 0.2% 98.7%  
20 1.4% 98.5%  
21 0.8% 97%  
22 0% 96%  
23 5% 96%  
24 0% 92%  
25 0.1% 92%  
26 10% 92%  
27 1.2% 82%  
28 64% 81% Median
29 0.1% 17%  
30 4% 16%  
31 0.1% 13%  
32 0.2% 13%  
33 5% 12%  
34 0.1% 7%  
35 0.3% 7%  
36 1.4% 7%  
37 0.8% 5%  
38 2% 5%  
39 0.1% 3%  
40 0.1% 3%  
41 0.1% 2%  
42 0.1% 2%  
43 0% 2%  
44 0.4% 2%  
45 0.2% 2%  
46 0.1% 1.5%  
47 0% 1.4%  
48 0% 1.4%  
49 0% 1.4%  
50 1.2% 1.4%  
51 0% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.4% 100%  
40 0% 99.6%  
41 0.2% 99.6%  
42 0% 99.4%  
43 7% 99.4%  
44 0% 93%  
45 1.0% 93%  
46 0.6% 92%  
47 0.1% 91%  
48 0.2% 91%  
49 0.5% 91%  
50 3% 90%  
51 73% 87% Median
52 11% 14%  
53 1.1% 3%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 4% 100% Last Result
5 5% 96%  
6 1.3% 91%  
7 27% 90%  
8 56% 62% Median
9 2% 6%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.7% 0.9%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 411 100% 391–415 386–415 373–417 368–428
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 403 100% 384–408 379–408 367–408 362–419
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 398 100% 388–403 380–403 365–406 360–410
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 398 100% 388–403 380–403 365–406 360–410
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 360 97% 347–363 334–363 321–366 319–376
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 352 96% 340–356 329–356 317–357 312–369
Conservative Party 317 352 96% 340–356 329–356 317–357 312–369
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 251 0% 249–263 249–271 228–284 225–292
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 243 0% 242–257 242–264 219–278 215–286
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 205 0% 202–215 202–222 186–234 183–245
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 200 0% 197–214 197–218 176–234 174–240
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 192 0% 190–207 190–213 167–229 164–232
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 192 0% 190–207 190–213 167–229 164–232
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 197 0% 195–210 195–214 177–226 173–237
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 154 0% 150–164 150–170 134–183 132–193
Labour Party – Change UK 262 146 0% 143–159 143–165 125–177 122–183
Labour Party 262 146 0% 143–159 143–165 125–177 122–183

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9%  
356 0% 99.9% Last Result
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.8%  
364 0% 99.8%  
365 0% 99.8%  
366 0% 99.8%  
367 0% 99.8%  
368 0.6% 99.8%  
369 0.1% 99.2%  
370 0% 99.2%  
371 1.1% 99.2%  
372 0.3% 98%  
373 0.4% 98%  
374 0% 97%  
375 0.1% 97%  
376 0% 97%  
377 0% 97%  
378 0.3% 97%  
379 0.5% 97%  
380 0% 96%  
381 0.6% 96%  
382 0.2% 96%  
383 0.2% 96%  
384 0% 95%  
385 0.2% 95%  
386 0.4% 95%  
387 1.5% 95%  
388 0% 93%  
389 0.1% 93%  
390 0.1% 93%  
391 5% 93%  
392 0% 88%  
393 0% 88%  
394 0.6% 88%  
395 0.1% 87%  
396 0.1% 87%  
397 0.1% 87%  
398 11% 87%  
399 0.2% 76%  
400 0.3% 76%  
401 0.2% 75%  
402 4% 75%  
403 1.4% 71%  
404 0.6% 70%  
405 0.2% 69%  
406 0.1% 69%  
407 0% 69%  
408 0.1% 69%  
409 2% 69%  
410 0.4% 67%  
411 53% 66% Median
412 0.2% 13%  
413 0% 13%  
414 0% 13%  
415 9% 13%  
416 0.1% 4%  
417 1.2% 4%  
418 0.2% 2%  
419 0% 2%  
420 0.1% 2%  
421 0.1% 2%  
422 0.2% 2%  
423 0% 2%  
424 0% 2%  
425 0% 2%  
426 0% 2%  
427 0% 2%  
428 1.4% 2%  
429 0% 0.3%  
430 0.1% 0.3%  
431 0% 0.2%  
432 0.2% 0.2%  
433 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9% Last Result
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.9%  
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.8%  
358 0% 99.8%  
359 0% 99.8%  
360 0% 99.8%  
361 0% 99.8%  
362 0.5% 99.8%  
363 0% 99.2%  
364 0% 99.2%  
365 0.3% 99.2%  
366 0.4% 98.9%  
367 1.1% 98.5%  
368 0% 97%  
369 0% 97%  
370 0.2% 97%  
371 0.2% 97%  
372 0.1% 97%  
373 0.7% 97%  
374 0.3% 96%  
375 0.2% 96%  
376 0.1% 96%  
377 0.2% 96%  
378 0.3% 95%  
379 1.4% 95%  
380 0.1% 94%  
381 0.2% 94%  
382 0.3% 93%  
383 0.1% 93%  
384 5% 93%  
385 0% 88%  
386 0.2% 88%  
387 0% 88%  
388 0.1% 88%  
389 0% 88%  
390 0.6% 88%  
391 11% 87%  
392 0.1% 76%  
393 0.1% 76%  
394 0.4% 76%  
395 1.2% 76%  
396 0.2% 74%  
397 5% 74%  
398 0% 70%  
399 3% 70%  
400 0.1% 67%  
401 0.3% 67%  
402 0% 66%  
403 53% 66% Median
404 0.1% 13%  
405 0.4% 13%  
406 0% 13%  
407 1.1% 13%  
408 9% 12%  
409 0.1% 2%  
410 0.1% 2%  
411 0% 2%  
412 0.1% 2%  
413 0.1% 2%  
414 0.1% 2%  
415 0.1% 2%  
416 0% 2%  
417 0% 2%  
418 0% 2%  
419 1.4% 2%  
420 0% 0.3%  
421 0% 0.3%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0.2% 0.2%  
424 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9%  
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.8%  
360 0.5% 99.7%  
361 0% 99.3%  
362 0.6% 99.3%  
363 0.2% 98.7%  
364 0% 98%  
365 1.3% 98%  
366 0.1% 97%  
367 0.2% 97%  
368 0.1% 97%  
369 0.4% 97%  
370 0.3% 96%  
371 0.3% 96%  
372 0.2% 96%  
373 0.1% 96%  
374 0% 95%  
375 0% 95%  
376 0.1% 95%  
377 0.1% 95%  
378 0.1% 95%  
379 0.1% 95%  
380 0.1% 95%  
381 0% 95%  
382 0.6% 95%  
383 0.1% 94%  
384 0% 94%  
385 1.4% 94%  
386 0.1% 93%  
387 0.3% 93%  
388 11% 92%  
389 0.3% 81%  
390 0.1% 81%  
391 6% 81%  
392 0.2% 75%  
393 4% 75%  
394 3% 70%  
395 0.1% 68%  
396 0.8% 68%  
397 0.6% 67%  
398 54% 67% Median
399 0% 12%  
400 0% 12%  
401 0.1% 12%  
402 0.3% 12%  
403 9% 12%  
404 0% 3%  
405 0.1% 3%  
406 0.4% 3%  
407 0.2% 2%  
408 0.1% 2%  
409 1.4% 2%  
410 0.1% 0.6%  
411 0% 0.4%  
412 0% 0.4%  
413 0% 0.4%  
414 0.1% 0.4%  
415 0% 0.3%  
416 0.1% 0.3%  
417 0.1% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9%  
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.8%  
360 0.5% 99.7%  
361 0% 99.3%  
362 0.6% 99.3%  
363 0.2% 98.7%  
364 0% 98%  
365 1.3% 98%  
366 0.1% 97%  
367 0.2% 97%  
368 0.1% 97%  
369 0.4% 97%  
370 0.3% 96%  
371 0.3% 96%  
372 0.2% 96%  
373 0.1% 96%  
374 0% 95%  
375 0% 95%  
376 0.1% 95%  
377 0.1% 95%  
378 0.1% 95%  
379 0.1% 95%  
380 0.1% 95%  
381 0% 95%  
382 0.6% 95%  
383 0.1% 94%  
384 0% 94%  
385 1.4% 94%  
386 0.1% 93%  
387 0.3% 93%  
388 11% 92%  
389 0.3% 81%  
390 0.1% 81%  
391 6% 81%  
392 0.2% 75%  
393 4% 75%  
394 3% 70%  
395 0.1% 68%  
396 0.8% 68%  
397 0.6% 67%  
398 54% 67% Median
399 0% 12%  
400 0% 12%  
401 0.1% 12%  
402 0.3% 12%  
403 9% 12%  
404 0% 3%  
405 0.1% 3%  
406 0.4% 3%  
407 0.2% 2%  
408 0.1% 2%  
409 1.4% 2%  
410 0.1% 0.6%  
411 0% 0.4%  
412 0% 0.4%  
413 0% 0.4%  
414 0.1% 0.4%  
415 0% 0.3%  
416 0.1% 0.3%  
417 0.1% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.8%  
312 0% 99.8%  
313 0% 99.8%  
314 0% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0% 99.8%  
317 0% 99.7%  
318 0% 99.7%  
319 1.2% 99.7%  
320 0% 98.5%  
321 1.1% 98.5% Last Result
322 0.1% 97%  
323 0% 97%  
324 0.1% 97%  
325 0.2% 97%  
326 0% 97% Majority
327 0.1% 97%  
328 0.2% 97%  
329 0% 97%  
330 0.3% 97%  
331 0.4% 96%  
332 0% 96%  
333 0.4% 96%  
334 0.3% 95%  
335 0.3% 95%  
336 0.1% 95%  
337 0.1% 95%  
338 0% 95%  
339 0.2% 94%  
340 0% 94%  
341 0% 94%  
342 0% 94%  
343 0.2% 94%  
344 1.5% 94%  
345 0.3% 93%  
346 0.3% 92%  
347 11% 92%  
348 5% 81%  
349 0.1% 76%  
350 0.1% 76%  
351 5% 76%  
352 0% 71%  
353 0.8% 71%  
354 0.2% 70%  
355 0.1% 70%  
356 0.1% 70%  
357 0.1% 70%  
358 3% 70%  
359 0.4% 67%  
360 53% 67% Median
361 0.1% 13%  
362 0.3% 13%  
363 9% 13%  
364 0.1% 4%  
365 0.1% 4%  
366 1.1% 3%  
367 0% 2%  
368 0.1% 2%  
369 0.1% 2%  
370 0.1% 2%  
371 0.1% 2%  
372 0% 2%  
373 0% 2%  
374 0% 2%  
375 0% 2%  
376 1.5% 2%  
377 0.1% 0.5%  
378 0.1% 0.4%  
379 0% 0.3%  
380 0% 0.3%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0.2% 0.2%  
383 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0% 99.8%  
308 0% 99.8%  
309 0% 99.8%  
310 0% 99.8%  
311 0% 99.7%  
312 0.7% 99.7%  
313 0.5% 99.1%  
314 0% 98.5%  
315 0% 98.5%  
316 0% 98%  
317 1.3% 98% Last Result
318 0.2% 97%  
319 0% 97%  
320 0.3% 97%  
321 0.2% 97%  
322 0.2% 96%  
323 0% 96%  
324 0.4% 96%  
325 0.1% 96%  
326 0.1% 96% Majority
327 0.5% 96%  
328 0% 95%  
329 0.2% 95%  
330 0.3% 95%  
331 0.2% 95%  
332 0.1% 94%  
333 0% 94%  
334 0% 94%  
335 0.1% 94%  
336 1.5% 94%  
337 0.1% 93%  
338 0% 93%  
339 0.1% 93%  
340 11% 92%  
341 5% 81%  
342 0.2% 76%  
343 0.3% 76%  
344 0.1% 76%  
345 0.9% 76%  
346 4% 75%  
347 0.5% 71%  
348 2% 70%  
349 0.1% 68%  
350 0.2% 68%  
351 0% 68%  
352 53% 68% Median
353 0% 14%  
354 0.9% 14%  
355 0.3% 13%  
356 10% 13%  
357 0.1% 3%  
358 0.1% 2%  
359 0% 2%  
360 0.1% 2%  
361 0% 2%  
362 0% 2%  
363 0.2% 2%  
364 0.1% 2%  
365 0% 2%  
366 0% 2%  
367 1.4% 2%  
368 0% 0.5%  
369 0.1% 0.5%  
370 0% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.4%  
372 0.2% 0.3%  
373 0.1% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0% 99.8%  
308 0% 99.8%  
309 0% 99.8%  
310 0% 99.8%  
311 0% 99.7%  
312 0.7% 99.7%  
313 0.5% 99.1%  
314 0% 98.5%  
315 0% 98.5%  
316 0% 98%  
317 1.3% 98% Last Result
318 0.2% 97%  
319 0% 97%  
320 0.3% 97%  
321 0.2% 97%  
322 0.2% 96%  
323 0% 96%  
324 0.4% 96%  
325 0.1% 96%  
326 0.1% 96% Majority
327 0.5% 96%  
328 0% 95%  
329 0.2% 95%  
330 0.3% 95%  
331 0.2% 95%  
332 0.1% 94%  
333 0% 94%  
334 0% 94%  
335 0.1% 94%  
336 1.5% 94%  
337 0.1% 93%  
338 0% 93%  
339 0.1% 93%  
340 11% 92%  
341 5% 81%  
342 0.2% 76%  
343 0.3% 76%  
344 0.1% 76%  
345 0.9% 76%  
346 4% 75%  
347 0.5% 71%  
348 2% 70%  
349 0.1% 68%  
350 0.2% 68%  
351 0% 68%  
352 53% 68% Median
353 0% 14%  
354 0.9% 14%  
355 0.3% 13%  
356 10% 13%  
357 0.1% 3%  
358 0.1% 2%  
359 0% 2%  
360 0.1% 2%  
361 0% 2%  
362 0% 2%  
363 0.2% 2%  
364 0.1% 2%  
365 0% 2%  
366 0% 2%  
367 1.4% 2%  
368 0% 0.5%  
369 0.1% 0.5%  
370 0% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.4%  
372 0.2% 0.3%  
373 0.1% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 1.1% 99.9%  
226 0% 98.9%  
227 0.1% 98.8%  
228 2% 98.8%  
229 0% 97%  
230 0.1% 97%  
231 0% 97%  
232 0.1% 97%  
233 0% 97%  
234 0.1% 97%  
235 0% 97%  
236 0.1% 97%  
237 0% 97%  
238 0.2% 97%  
239 0.1% 97%  
240 0.1% 97%  
241 0% 96%  
242 0% 96%  
243 0.1% 96%  
244 0.2% 96%  
245 0.1% 96%  
246 0% 96%  
247 0.1% 96%  
248 0.2% 96%  
249 9% 96%  
250 0.1% 87%  
251 53% 86% Median
252 0% 33%  
253 2% 33%  
254 0% 31%  
255 0.3% 31%  
256 0.1% 31%  
257 7% 31%  
258 1.0% 24%  
259 0.8% 23%  
260 0% 22%  
261 0.2% 22%  
262 4% 22%  
263 11% 17%  
264 0.2% 7%  
265 0.5% 6%  
266 0.3% 6%  
267 0.1% 6%  
268 0.1% 6%  
269 0.2% 5%  
270 0% 5%  
271 0.3% 5%  
272 0.4% 5%  
273 0.1% 4%  
274 0.1% 4%  
275 0.4% 4%  
276 0.1% 4%  
277 0% 4%  
278 0% 4%  
279 0% 4%  
280 0.1% 4%  
281 0.5% 4%  
282 0.1% 3%  
283 0% 3%  
284 2% 3%  
285 0% 1.0%  
286 0% 0.9%  
287 0% 0.9%  
288 0.1% 0.9%  
289 0% 0.8%  
290 0% 0.8%  
291 0.1% 0.8%  
292 0.2% 0.7%  
293 0.3% 0.5%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0.1% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 1.1% 99.9%  
216 0% 98.9%  
217 0% 98.9%  
218 0.1% 98.9%  
219 1.4% 98.7%  
220 0.1% 97%  
221 0.1% 97%  
222 0% 97%  
223 0% 97%  
224 0.1% 97%  
225 0% 97%  
226 0% 97%  
227 0.2% 97%  
228 0% 97%  
229 0% 97%  
230 0.1% 97%  
231 0% 97%  
232 0.1% 97%  
233 0.2% 97%  
234 0.1% 96%  
235 0% 96%  
236 0.1% 96%  
237 0.1% 96%  
238 0.1% 96%  
239 0% 96%  
240 0% 96%  
241 0% 96%  
242 9% 96%  
243 55% 87% Median
244 0% 31%  
245 0% 31%  
246 0.3% 31%  
247 0.2% 31%  
248 0.1% 31%  
249 2% 31%  
250 5% 29%  
251 1.2% 24%  
252 0% 23%  
253 1.0% 23%  
254 0.5% 22%  
255 0.1% 22%  
256 11% 22%  
257 4% 11%  
258 0% 6%  
259 0.2% 6%  
260 0.1% 6%  
261 0.4% 6%  
262 0.3% 5%  
263 0% 5%  
264 0.2% 5%  
265 0% 5%  
266 0.1% 5%  
267 0.7% 5%  
268 0.4% 4%  
269 0% 4%  
270 0.1% 4%  
271 0% 4%  
272 0.1% 4%  
273 0% 4%  
274 0% 4%  
275 0.5% 4%  
276 0% 3%  
277 0.3% 3%  
278 0.6% 3%  
279 0% 2%  
280 1.2% 2%  
281 0% 0.9%  
282 0.1% 0.9%  
283 0.2% 0.8%  
284 0.1% 0.6%  
285 0% 0.5%  
286 0.1% 0.5%  
287 0.1% 0.4%  
288 0.1% 0.3%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0.1% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0.1% 0.1%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
173 0% 100%  
174 0% 99.9%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 1.1% 99.9%  
184 0.2% 98.8%  
185 0% 98.6%  
186 1.5% 98.6%  
187 0% 97%  
188 0.1% 97%  
189 0.1% 97%  
190 0% 97%  
191 0.1% 97%  
192 0.1% 97%  
193 0.1% 97%  
194 0% 97%  
195 0.3% 97%  
196 0.2% 96%  
197 0.1% 96%  
198 0.3% 96%  
199 0.1% 96%  
200 0% 96%  
201 0.1% 96%  
202 9% 96%  
203 0.1% 87%  
204 0.2% 87%  
205 53% 86% Median
206 0% 33%  
207 7% 33%  
208 2% 26%  
209 0.1% 24%  
210 0.1% 24%  
211 0.4% 24%  
212 0.1% 24%  
213 0.8% 24%  
214 0.2% 23%  
215 16% 23%  
216 0.4% 7%  
217 0.6% 6%  
218 0.5% 6%  
219 0.2% 5%  
220 0.1% 5%  
221 0.1% 5%  
222 0.1% 5%  
223 0.4% 5%  
224 0.2% 5%  
225 0.1% 4%  
226 0% 4%  
227 0.2% 4%  
228 0.1% 4%  
229 0.5% 4%  
230 0.3% 4%  
231 0% 3%  
232 0.5% 3%  
233 0.1% 3%  
234 0.2% 3%  
235 0% 2%  
236 1.4% 2%  
237 0% 1.0%  
238 0% 1.0%  
239 0% 1.0%  
240 0.1% 0.9%  
241 0.1% 0.9%  
242 0.1% 0.8%  
243 0% 0.7%  
244 0.1% 0.7%  
245 0.1% 0.6%  
246 0.2% 0.5%  
247 0.1% 0.3%  
248 0% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.2%  
250 0.1% 0.2%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0.1% 0.1%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 1.1% 100%  
175 0.1% 98.9%  
176 1.4% 98.8%  
177 0% 97%  
178 0.1% 97%  
179 0% 97%  
180 0.1% 97%  
181 0% 97%  
182 0% 97%  
183 0% 97%  
184 0.1% 97%  
185 0% 97%  
186 0% 97%  
187 0% 97%  
188 0.3% 97%  
189 0% 97%  
190 0.1% 97%  
191 0.2% 97%  
192 0.1% 96%  
193 0% 96%  
194 0.1% 96%  
195 0% 96%  
196 0.1% 96%  
197 9% 96%  
198 0% 87%  
199 0% 87%  
200 53% 87% Median
201 0.2% 34%  
202 2% 33%  
203 0.2% 31%  
204 0% 31%  
205 0.2% 31%  
206 0% 31%  
207 0% 31%  
208 0.3% 31%  
209 1.0% 31%  
210 0.4% 30%  
211 4% 29%  
212 12% 25%  
213 0.4% 13%  
214 7% 13%  
215 0.8% 6%  
216 0.1% 5%  
217 0.1% 5%  
218 0.3% 5%  
219 0.3% 5%  
220 0.2% 5%  
221 0.5% 4%  
222 0% 4%  
223 0% 4%  
224 0% 4%  
225 0.1% 4%  
226 0% 4%  
227 0% 4%  
228 0% 4%  
229 0.1% 4%  
230 0% 3%  
231 0.3% 3%  
232 0.5% 3%  
233 0% 3%  
234 1.2% 3%  
235 0.1% 1.4%  
236 0.1% 1.3%  
237 0.1% 1.2%  
238 0.6% 1.2%  
239 0.1% 0.6%  
240 0.3% 0.5%  
241 0% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.2%  
244 0% 0.2%  
245 0% 0.2%  
246 0.1% 0.2%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0.1% 0.1%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 1.1% 100%  
165 0% 98.9%  
166 0% 98.9%  
167 1.4% 98.9%  
168 0.2% 97%  
169 0% 97%  
170 0% 97%  
171 0.1% 97%  
172 0% 97%  
173 0% 97%  
174 0% 97%  
175 0% 97%  
176 0% 97%  
177 0.1% 97%  
178 0% 97%  
179 0.1% 97%  
180 0.2% 97%  
181 0.1% 97%  
182 0% 97%  
183 0.2% 97%  
184 0.1% 96%  
185 0.1% 96%  
186 0% 96%  
187 0.1% 96%  
188 0.1% 96%  
189 0% 96%  
190 9% 96%  
191 0% 87%  
192 55% 87% Median
193 0.1% 31%  
194 0.1% 31%  
195 0.2% 31%  
196 0.2% 31%  
197 0% 31%  
198 0% 31%  
199 0% 31%  
200 0.1% 31%  
201 0.8% 31%  
202 0.1% 30%  
203 0.5% 30%  
204 0.1% 29%  
205 11% 29%  
206 6% 18%  
207 5% 12%  
208 1.0% 7%  
209 0.1% 6%  
210 0.4% 6%  
211 0.4% 6%  
212 0% 5%  
213 0.5% 5%  
214 0.4% 5%  
215 0.4% 4%  
216 0% 4%  
217 0% 4%  
218 0% 4%  
219 0.1% 4%  
220 0% 4%  
221 0.1% 4%  
222 0% 4%  
223 0% 4%  
224 0.3% 4%  
225 0.1% 3%  
226 0.5% 3%  
227 0% 3%  
228 0% 3%  
229 0.1% 3%  
230 1.3% 2%  
231 0.1% 1.1%  
232 0.6% 1.1%  
233 0.1% 0.4%  
234 0% 0.3%  
235 0.1% 0.3%  
236 0% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.2%  
238 0% 0.2%  
239 0% 0.2%  
240 0% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0.1% 0.1%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 1.1% 100%  
165 0% 98.9%  
166 0% 98.9%  
167 1.4% 98.9%  
168 0.2% 97%  
169 0% 97%  
170 0% 97%  
171 0.1% 97%  
172 0% 97%  
173 0% 97%  
174 0% 97%  
175 0% 97%  
176 0% 97%  
177 0.1% 97%  
178 0% 97%  
179 0.1% 97%  
180 0.2% 97%  
181 0.1% 97%  
182 0% 97%  
183 0.2% 97%  
184 0.1% 96%  
185 0.1% 96%  
186 0% 96%  
187 0.1% 96%  
188 0.1% 96%  
189 0% 96%  
190 9% 96%  
191 0% 87%  
192 55% 87% Median
193 0.1% 31%  
194 0.1% 31%  
195 0.2% 31%  
196 0.2% 31%  
197 0% 31%  
198 0% 31%  
199 0% 31%  
200 0.1% 31%  
201 0.8% 31%  
202 0.1% 30%  
203 0.5% 30%  
204 0.1% 29%  
205 11% 29%  
206 6% 18%  
207 5% 12%  
208 1.0% 7%  
209 0.1% 6%  
210 0.4% 6%  
211 0.4% 6%  
212 0% 5%  
213 0.5% 5%  
214 0.4% 5%  
215 0.4% 4%  
216 0% 4%  
217 0% 4%  
218 0% 4%  
219 0.1% 4%  
220 0% 4%  
221 0.1% 4%  
222 0% 4%  
223 0% 4%  
224 0.3% 4%  
225 0.1% 3%  
226 0.5% 3%  
227 0% 3%  
228 0% 3%  
229 0.1% 3%  
230 1.3% 2%  
231 0.1% 1.1%  
232 0.6% 1.1%  
233 0.1% 0.4%  
234 0% 0.3%  
235 0.1% 0.3%  
236 0% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.2%  
238 0% 0.2%  
239 0% 0.2%  
240 0% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0.1% 0.1%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
166 0% 100%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 1.1% 99.9%  
174 0.2% 98.8%  
175 0% 98.7%  
176 0% 98.7%  
177 2% 98.7%  
178 0% 97%  
179 0% 97%  
180 0% 97%  
181 0% 97%  
182 0.1% 97%  
183 0.1% 97%  
184 0.1% 97%  
185 0% 97%  
186 0.1% 97%  
187 0.2% 97%  
188 0.3% 97%  
189 0.1% 96%  
190 0% 96%  
191 0% 96%  
192 0.2% 96%  
193 0% 96%  
194 0.2% 96%  
195 9% 96%  
196 0% 86%  
197 55% 86% Median
198 0% 31%  
199 0.2% 31%  
200 6% 31%  
201 0% 25%  
202 0.1% 25%  
203 0.1% 24%  
204 0.4% 24%  
205 0.9% 24%  
206 0.3% 23%  
207 0.1% 23%  
208 11% 23%  
209 0.3% 12%  
210 5% 11%  
211 1.1% 7%  
212 0.3% 6%  
213 0.3% 5%  
214 0.1% 5%  
215 0.1% 5%  
216 0.2% 5%  
217 0% 5%  
218 0.1% 5%  
219 0.3% 5%  
220 0% 4%  
221 0% 4%  
222 0% 4%  
223 0.6% 4%  
224 0.1% 4%  
225 0% 4%  
226 1.0% 3%  
227 0% 2%  
228 0% 2%  
229 0.3% 2%  
230 0% 2%  
231 0.1% 2%  
232 1.1% 2%  
233 0% 0.9%  
234 0% 0.9%  
235 0% 0.9%  
236 0.3% 0.9%  
237 0.1% 0.5%  
238 0% 0.4%  
239 0.1% 0.4%  
240 0.1% 0.3%  
241 0% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.2%  
244 0% 0.2%  
245 0% 0.2%  
246 0.1% 0.2%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0.1% 0.1%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 1.2% 99.9%  
133 0% 98.8%  
134 2% 98.8%  
135 0% 97%  
136 0.1% 97%  
137 0% 97%  
138 0.1% 97%  
139 0% 97%  
140 0% 97%  
141 0.1% 97%  
142 0% 97%  
143 0.2% 97%  
144 0.1% 97%  
145 0.1% 97%  
146 0.1% 97%  
147 0.1% 96%  
148 0.1% 96%  
149 0.1% 96%  
150 9% 96%  
151 0% 87%  
152 0.2% 87%  
153 0% 87%  
154 53% 87% Median
155 0.1% 34%  
156 2% 33%  
157 0.1% 31%  
158 0.1% 31%  
159 0.2% 31%  
160 0.1% 31%  
161 0.4% 31%  
162 0% 30%  
163 1.2% 30%  
164 20% 29%  
165 2% 9%  
166 0.3% 7%  
167 0.2% 6%  
168 0% 6%  
169 0.3% 6%  
170 0.9% 6%  
171 0.4% 5%  
172 0.2% 5%  
173 0.1% 4%  
174 0% 4%  
175 0% 4%  
176 0.1% 4%  
177 0.1% 4%  
178 0.4% 4%  
179 0% 4%  
180 0% 4%  
181 0.1% 4%  
182 0.1% 4%  
183 1.4% 4%  
184 0% 2%  
185 0% 2%  
186 1.1% 2%  
187 0.1% 0.9%  
188 0.1% 0.9%  
189 0% 0.8%  
190 0.1% 0.8%  
191 0.2% 0.7%  
192 0% 0.5%  
193 0.2% 0.5%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.2%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0.1% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 1.1% 100%  
123 0.1% 98.9%  
124 0.2% 98.8%  
125 1.5% 98.7%  
126 0% 97%  
127 0.1% 97%  
128 0% 97%  
129 0% 97%  
130 0% 97%  
131 0.1% 97%  
132 0.1% 97%  
133 0.1% 97%  
134 0.1% 97%  
135 0% 97%  
136 0.1% 97%  
137 0.1% 97%  
138 0.2% 97%  
139 0% 96%  
140 0.1% 96%  
141 0.1% 96%  
142 0.1% 96%  
143 9% 96%  
144 0% 87%  
145 0% 87%  
146 55% 87% Median
147 0.1% 31%  
148 0.1% 31%  
149 0.2% 31%  
150 0% 31%  
151 0% 31%  
152 0% 31%  
153 0.2% 31%  
154 0.1% 31%  
155 0.8% 31%  
156 0.6% 30%  
157 18% 29%  
158 0.3% 12%  
159 4% 11%  
160 0.2% 7%  
161 0.5% 7%  
162 0.5% 6%  
163 0% 6%  
164 0.4% 6%  
165 0.3% 5%  
166 0.6% 5%  
167 0% 4%  
168 0.1% 4%  
169 0% 4%  
170 0% 4%  
171 0% 4%  
172 0.1% 4%  
173 0.1% 4%  
174 0.4% 4%  
175 0.2% 4%  
176 0.3% 3%  
177 1.1% 3%  
178 0% 2%  
179 0% 2%  
180 0% 2%  
181 0% 2%  
182 1.1% 2%  
183 0.4% 0.9%  
184 0% 0.5%  
185 0.1% 0.5%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0% 0.3%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.2%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0.1% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 1.1% 100%  
123 0.1% 98.9%  
124 0.2% 98.8%  
125 1.5% 98.7%  
126 0% 97%  
127 0.1% 97%  
128 0% 97%  
129 0% 97%  
130 0% 97%  
131 0.1% 97%  
132 0.1% 97%  
133 0.1% 97%  
134 0.1% 97%  
135 0% 97%  
136 0.1% 97%  
137 0.1% 97%  
138 0.2% 97%  
139 0% 96%  
140 0.1% 96%  
141 0.1% 96%  
142 0.1% 96%  
143 9% 96%  
144 0% 87%  
145 0% 87%  
146 55% 87% Median
147 0.1% 31%  
148 0.1% 31%  
149 0.2% 31%  
150 0% 31%  
151 0% 31%  
152 0% 31%  
153 0.2% 31%  
154 0.1% 31%  
155 0.8% 31%  
156 0.6% 30%  
157 18% 29%  
158 0.3% 12%  
159 4% 11%  
160 0.2% 7%  
161 0.5% 7%  
162 0.5% 6%  
163 0% 6%  
164 0.4% 6%  
165 0.3% 5%  
166 0.6% 5%  
167 0% 4%  
168 0.1% 4%  
169 0% 4%  
170 0% 4%  
171 0% 4%  
172 0.1% 4%  
173 0.1% 4%  
174 0.4% 4%  
175 0.2% 4%  
176 0.3% 3%  
177 1.1% 3%  
178 0% 2%  
179 0% 2%  
180 0% 2%  
181 0% 2%  
182 1.1% 2%  
183 0.4% 0.9%  
184 0% 0.5%  
185 0.1% 0.5%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0% 0.3%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.2%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0.1% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations