Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 17–18 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 31.3% 29.8–32.8% 29.4–33.2% 29.1–33.6% 28.4–34.3%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 22.5% 21.2–23.9% 20.9–24.3% 20.5–24.6% 19.9–25.3%
Labour Party 40.0% 20.5% 19.3–21.9% 18.9–22.2% 18.6–22.6% 18.0–23.2%
Brexit Party 0.0% 13.7% 12.6–14.8% 12.3–15.2% 12.1–15.5% 11.6–16.0%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.9% 3.4–4.6% 3.2–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 2.8–5.3%
Green Party 1.6% 3.9% 3.4–4.6% 3.2–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 2.8–5.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 301 287–310 287–321 275–322 267–325
Liberal Democrats 12 82 80–89 79–90 77–90 74–97
Labour Party 262 120 118–127 110–154 106–155 101–160
Brexit Party 0 68 53–75 46–75 41–82 40–86
Scottish National Party 35 52 51–52 49–52 48–52 46–54
Green Party 1 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Plaid Cymru 4 7 5–10 4–10 4–11 4–12
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0% 99.8%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.7%  
262 0% 99.7%  
263 0% 99.7%  
264 0% 99.7%  
265 0% 99.6%  
266 0% 99.6%  
267 0.2% 99.6%  
268 0% 99.4%  
269 0% 99.3%  
270 0.1% 99.3%  
271 0% 99.2%  
272 1.1% 99.2%  
273 0% 98%  
274 0.1% 98%  
275 0.9% 98%  
276 0% 97%  
277 0% 97%  
278 0.4% 97%  
279 0.5% 97%  
280 0.1% 96%  
281 0% 96%  
282 0.2% 96%  
283 0% 96%  
284 0% 96%  
285 0.6% 96%  
286 0% 95%  
287 14% 95%  
288 0.1% 81%  
289 0% 81%  
290 0.1% 81%  
291 0.2% 81%  
292 0.5% 81%  
293 4% 80%  
294 0% 76%  
295 0.1% 76%  
296 0.9% 76%  
297 7% 75%  
298 0.9% 68%  
299 0.2% 67%  
300 0.2% 67%  
301 24% 67% Median
302 0.2% 43%  
303 0% 43%  
304 29% 43%  
305 0.1% 14%  
306 0.3% 14%  
307 0% 14%  
308 0% 14%  
309 0.6% 14%  
310 5% 13%  
311 0.4% 8%  
312 0.5% 7%  
313 0% 7%  
314 0.3% 7%  
315 0.2% 7%  
316 0.7% 6%  
317 0% 6% Last Result
318 0% 6%  
319 0.3% 6%  
320 0% 5%  
321 1.5% 5%  
322 3% 4%  
323 0.2% 1.0%  
324 0.1% 0.8%  
325 0.4% 0.7%  
326 0.1% 0.3% Majority
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.7%  
74 0.7% 99.6%  
75 0.1% 98.8%  
76 0.7% 98.7%  
77 0.8% 98%  
78 0.6% 97%  
79 2% 97%  
80 32% 95%  
81 7% 63%  
82 7% 56% Median
83 0.2% 49%  
84 0.4% 49%  
85 4% 48%  
86 24% 45%  
87 0.1% 21%  
88 0.2% 20%  
89 13% 20%  
90 5% 7%  
91 0.6% 2%  
92 0.1% 1.3%  
93 0.1% 1.2%  
94 0% 1.1%  
95 0% 1.1%  
96 0.3% 1.1%  
97 0.6% 0.7%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.7%  
100 0.1% 99.7%  
101 0% 99.5%  
102 0.1% 99.5%  
103 0% 99.4%  
104 0.1% 99.4%  
105 1.0% 99.2%  
106 1.0% 98%  
107 0.2% 97%  
108 0.8% 97%  
109 1.1% 96%  
110 2% 95%  
111 0.1% 93%  
112 0.1% 93%  
113 0.2% 93%  
114 0.2% 92%  
115 0.5% 92%  
116 0.1% 92%  
117 0.1% 92%  
118 7% 92%  
119 12% 85%  
120 28% 72% Median
121 0.1% 44%  
122 3% 44%  
123 0.3% 41%  
124 0% 41%  
125 29% 41%  
126 0.1% 12%  
127 5% 12%  
128 0.5% 8%  
129 0% 7%  
130 0% 7%  
131 0% 7%  
132 0.1% 7%  
133 0% 7%  
134 0% 7%  
135 0.1% 7%  
136 0% 7%  
137 0% 7%  
138 0% 7%  
139 0.1% 7%  
140 0% 7%  
141 0% 7%  
142 0% 7%  
143 0% 7%  
144 0% 7%  
145 0.3% 7%  
146 0% 6%  
147 0% 6%  
148 0% 6%  
149 0% 6%  
150 0.1% 6%  
151 0% 6%  
152 0.8% 6%  
153 0.2% 5%  
154 1.2% 5%  
155 2% 4%  
156 0.7% 2%  
157 0.5% 1.4%  
158 0.1% 1.0%  
159 0.2% 0.9%  
160 0.3% 0.7%  
161 0% 0.4%  
162 0% 0.4%  
163 0% 0.4%  
164 0% 0.3%  
165 0% 0.3%  
166 0% 0.3%  
167 0% 0.3%  
168 0.1% 0.3%  
169 0% 0.2%  
170 0.1% 0.2%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0.1% 0.1%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.8%  
36 0% 99.8%  
37 0% 99.8%  
38 0% 99.7%  
39 0.1% 99.7%  
40 0.2% 99.6%  
41 2% 99.4%  
42 0% 97%  
43 0% 97%  
44 0.4% 97%  
45 0.1% 97%  
46 2% 97%  
47 0.1% 95%  
48 0.1% 95%  
49 0.1% 95%  
50 0% 95%  
51 3% 95%  
52 1.4% 92%  
53 0.5% 90%  
54 1.4% 90%  
55 0% 88%  
56 0.1% 88%  
57 0.5% 88%  
58 5% 88%  
59 24% 83%  
60 0.2% 59%  
61 0% 59%  
62 0.7% 59%  
63 0.1% 58%  
64 0.2% 58%  
65 0.2% 58%  
66 5% 58%  
67 0.5% 53%  
68 28% 53% Median
69 0.1% 25%  
70 0.3% 25%  
71 0.6% 24%  
72 0.1% 24%  
73 0.2% 24%  
74 0.8% 23%  
75 19% 23%  
76 0.1% 3%  
77 0% 3%  
78 0% 3%  
79 0% 3%  
80 0% 3%  
81 0.1% 3%  
82 0.8% 3%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 0.7% 1.5%  
85 0.1% 0.8%  
86 0.4% 0.7%  
87 0% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0% 99.7%  
45 0% 99.7%  
46 0.3% 99.7%  
47 0.1% 99.4%  
48 2% 99.3%  
49 6% 97%  
50 0.2% 91%  
51 1.1% 90%  
52 87% 89% Median
53 0.6% 2%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100% Last Result
2 70% 93% Median
3 24% 24%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 9% 100% Last Result
5 12% 91%  
6 28% 80%  
7 37% 52% Median
8 0.7% 14%  
9 0.5% 14%  
10 10% 13%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.1% 0.5%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 384 100% 376–391 372–400 364–402 357–404
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 384 100% 376–391 372–400 364–402 357–404
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 360 99.6% 346–366 346–378 337–380 328–388
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 353 98% 339–362 339–373 327–374 318–378
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 308 6% 294–314 294–326 285–329 277–335
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 301 0.3% 287–310 287–321 275–322 267–325
Conservative Party 317 301 0.3% 287–310 287–321 275–322 267–325
Liberal Democrats – Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 262 0.1% 257–271 252–302 246–305 241–316
Liberal Democrats – Labour Party – Scottish National Party 309 258 0% 252–266 242–292 236–295 231–306
Liberal Democrats – Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 278 210 0% 205–222 200–250 195–253 189–265
Liberal Democrats – Labour Party – Change UK 274 206 0% 200–217 190–240 185–243 180–255
Liberal Democrats – Labour Party 274 206 0% 200–217 190–240 185–243 180–255
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 178 0% 175–184 170–216 167–217 162–222
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 172 0% 170–177 160–206 157–207 154–212
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 126 0% 123–132 120–164 116–165 111–170
Labour Party – Change UK 262 120 0% 118–127 110–154 106–155 101–160
Labour Party 262 120 0% 118–127 110–154 106–155 101–160

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0.1% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.8%  
353 0% 99.7%  
354 0.1% 99.7%  
355 0% 99.6%  
356 0.1% 99.6%  
357 0% 99.5%  
358 0% 99.5%  
359 0% 99.5%  
360 0.2% 99.5%  
361 1.1% 99.2%  
362 0.1% 98%  
363 0.3% 98%  
364 0.5% 98%  
365 0.8% 97%  
366 0.2% 96%  
367 0% 96%  
368 0.5% 96%  
369 0.3% 96%  
370 0.1% 95%  
371 0.2% 95%  
372 2% 95%  
373 0.1% 93%  
374 0.2% 93%  
375 0.1% 93%  
376 12% 93%  
377 0.1% 81%  
378 0.9% 81%  
379 7% 80%  
380 0.1% 73%  
381 1.0% 73%  
382 0.6% 72%  
383 5% 71% Median
384 28% 66%  
385 0.2% 38%  
386 0.5% 38%  
387 24% 38%  
388 0.3% 14%  
389 0.2% 14%  
390 0.9% 13%  
391 5% 12%  
392 0.5% 7%  
393 0.1% 7%  
394 0.1% 7%  
395 0.9% 7%  
396 0.2% 6%  
397 0% 6%  
398 0.3% 6%  
399 0.2% 5%  
400 0.3% 5%  
401 0% 5%  
402 4% 5%  
403 0% 0.8%  
404 0.3% 0.8%  
405 0% 0.4%  
406 0% 0.4%  
407 0% 0.4%  
408 0% 0.4%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.2%  
412 0.1% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0.1% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.8%  
353 0% 99.7%  
354 0.1% 99.7%  
355 0% 99.6%  
356 0.1% 99.6%  
357 0% 99.5%  
358 0% 99.5%  
359 0% 99.5%  
360 0.2% 99.5%  
361 1.1% 99.2%  
362 0.1% 98%  
363 0.3% 98%  
364 0.5% 98%  
365 0.8% 97%  
366 0.2% 96%  
367 0% 96%  
368 0.5% 96%  
369 0.3% 96%  
370 0.1% 95%  
371 0.2% 95%  
372 2% 95%  
373 0.1% 93%  
374 0.2% 93%  
375 0.1% 93%  
376 12% 93%  
377 0.1% 81%  
378 0.9% 81%  
379 7% 80%  
380 0.1% 73%  
381 1.0% 73%  
382 0.6% 72%  
383 5% 71% Median
384 28% 66%  
385 0.2% 38%  
386 0.5% 38%  
387 24% 38%  
388 0.3% 14%  
389 0.2% 14%  
390 0.9% 13%  
391 5% 12%  
392 0.5% 7%  
393 0.1% 7%  
394 0.1% 7%  
395 0.9% 7%  
396 0.2% 6%  
397 0% 6%  
398 0.3% 6%  
399 0.2% 5%  
400 0.3% 5%  
401 0% 5%  
402 4% 5%  
403 0% 0.8%  
404 0.3% 0.8%  
405 0% 0.4%  
406 0% 0.4%  
407 0% 0.4%  
408 0% 0.4%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.2%  
412 0.1% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0.1% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.8%  
312 0% 99.8%  
313 0% 99.8%  
314 0% 99.8%  
315 0% 99.8%  
316 0% 99.8%  
317 0% 99.8%  
318 0% 99.8%  
319 0% 99.8%  
320 0% 99.8%  
321 0% 99.8%  
322 0% 99.7%  
323 0% 99.7%  
324 0% 99.6%  
325 0% 99.6%  
326 0% 99.6% Majority
327 0% 99.6%  
328 0.2% 99.6%  
329 0.1% 99.3%  
330 0% 99.2%  
331 0.1% 99.2%  
332 0% 99.1%  
333 0.1% 99.1%  
334 1.1% 99.0%  
335 0% 98%  
336 0.3% 98%  
337 0.9% 98%  
338 0.1% 97%  
339 0% 97%  
340 0.6% 97%  
341 0.5% 96%  
342 0.1% 96%  
343 0% 96%  
344 0.1% 95%  
345 0.1% 95%  
346 12% 95%  
347 4% 83%  
348 0.1% 79%  
349 2% 79%  
350 0% 77%  
351 0% 77%  
352 0% 77%  
353 0.1% 77%  
354 7% 77%  
355 0% 69%  
356 0.6% 69% Last Result
357 1.0% 69%  
358 0.7% 68%  
359 0.2% 67%  
360 24% 67% Median
361 0.2% 43%  
362 28% 43%  
363 0.9% 15%  
364 0.9% 14%  
365 0.2% 14%  
366 5% 13%  
367 0.3% 8%  
368 0.2% 8%  
369 0% 8%  
370 0.1% 8%  
371 0.6% 8%  
372 0.1% 7%  
373 0.1% 7%  
374 0.1% 7%  
375 0.9% 7%  
376 0.3% 6%  
377 0% 6%  
378 3% 6%  
379 0.3% 3%  
380 0.3% 3%  
381 0% 2%  
382 0% 2%  
383 0.1% 2%  
384 1.5% 2%  
385 0% 0.7%  
386 0% 0.7%  
387 0% 0.6%  
388 0.4% 0.6%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0% 99.8%  
308 0% 99.8%  
309 0% 99.8%  
310 0% 99.8%  
311 0% 99.8%  
312 0% 99.8%  
313 0% 99.7%  
314 0% 99.7%  
315 0% 99.7%  
316 0% 99.6%  
317 0% 99.6%  
318 0.3% 99.6%  
319 0% 99.4%  
320 0% 99.4%  
321 0.1% 99.3%  
322 0.1% 99.2%  
323 0% 99.2%  
324 1.1% 99.2%  
325 0.1% 98%  
326 0% 98% Majority
327 0.9% 98%  
328 0% 97%  
329 0.3% 97%  
330 0% 97%  
331 0.5% 97%  
332 0.1% 96%  
333 0.6% 96%  
334 0% 96%  
335 0% 96%  
336 0.4% 96%  
337 0% 95%  
338 0.1% 95%  
339 14% 95%  
340 0.1% 81%  
341 0.1% 81%  
342 4% 81%  
343 0.1% 77%  
344 0% 77%  
345 0% 77%  
346 1.1% 77%  
347 0.3% 75%  
348 0.8% 75%  
349 7% 74%  
350 0.2% 67%  
351 0.1% 67%  
352 0.1% 67% Last Result
353 25% 67% Median
354 0.3% 42%  
355 0% 42%  
356 28% 42%  
357 0.2% 14%  
358 0% 14%  
359 0.3% 14%  
360 0.1% 13%  
361 0.8% 13%  
362 5% 12%  
363 0.1% 7%  
364 0% 7%  
365 0.9% 7%  
366 0.5% 6%  
367 0.2% 6%  
368 0% 5%  
369 0.1% 5%  
370 0% 5%  
371 0.1% 5%  
372 0.1% 5%  
373 1.3% 5%  
374 3% 4%  
375 0.1% 0.9%  
376 0.2% 0.8%  
377 0% 0.6%  
378 0.4% 0.6%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.8%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.8%  
266 0% 99.8%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0% 99.6%  
273 0% 99.6%  
274 0% 99.6%  
275 0% 99.6%  
276 0% 99.6%  
277 0.3% 99.6%  
278 0.1% 99.3%  
279 0% 99.2%  
280 0.1% 99.2%  
281 0% 99.1%  
282 1.2% 99.1%  
283 0% 98%  
284 0% 98%  
285 1.1% 98%  
286 0.1% 97%  
287 0% 97%  
288 0% 97%  
289 0.4% 97%  
290 0.1% 96%  
291 0% 96%  
292 0.8% 96%  
293 0% 95%  
294 12% 95%  
295 0% 83%  
296 0.1% 83%  
297 2% 83%  
298 4% 81%  
299 0% 77%  
300 0.1% 77%  
301 0% 77%  
302 7% 77%  
303 0% 69%  
304 0.1% 69%  
305 0.5% 69%  
306 0.8% 69%  
307 0.1% 68%  
308 24% 68% Median
309 0.9% 44%  
310 28% 43%  
311 0.1% 16%  
312 0.5% 15%  
313 0% 15%  
314 6% 15%  
315 0.4% 9%  
316 0.7% 9%  
317 0% 8%  
318 0.1% 8%  
319 0.5% 8%  
320 0.3% 7%  
321 0.2% 7% Last Result
322 0% 7%  
323 0% 7%  
324 0.3% 7%  
325 0.3% 7%  
326 3% 6% Majority
327 0.1% 3%  
328 0.1% 3%  
329 0.2% 3%  
330 0% 2%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 1.4% 2%  
333 0.1% 0.7%  
334 0% 0.7%  
335 0.4% 0.7%  
336 0% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0% 99.8%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.7%  
262 0% 99.7%  
263 0% 99.7%  
264 0% 99.7%  
265 0% 99.6%  
266 0% 99.6%  
267 0.2% 99.6%  
268 0% 99.4%  
269 0% 99.3%  
270 0.1% 99.3%  
271 0% 99.2%  
272 1.1% 99.2%  
273 0% 98%  
274 0.1% 98%  
275 0.9% 98%  
276 0% 97%  
277 0% 97%  
278 0.4% 97%  
279 0.5% 97%  
280 0.1% 96%  
281 0% 96%  
282 0.2% 96%  
283 0% 96%  
284 0% 96%  
285 0.6% 96%  
286 0% 95%  
287 14% 95%  
288 0.1% 81%  
289 0% 81%  
290 0.1% 81%  
291 0.2% 81%  
292 0.5% 81%  
293 4% 80%  
294 0% 76%  
295 0.1% 76%  
296 0.9% 76%  
297 7% 75%  
298 0.9% 68%  
299 0.2% 67%  
300 0.2% 67%  
301 24% 67% Median
302 0.2% 43%  
303 0% 43%  
304 29% 43%  
305 0.1% 14%  
306 0.3% 14%  
307 0% 14%  
308 0% 14%  
309 0.6% 14%  
310 5% 13%  
311 0.4% 8%  
312 0.5% 7%  
313 0% 7%  
314 0.3% 7%  
315 0.2% 7%  
316 0.7% 6%  
317 0% 6% Last Result
318 0% 6%  
319 0.3% 6%  
320 0% 5%  
321 1.5% 5%  
322 3% 4%  
323 0.2% 1.0%  
324 0.1% 0.8%  
325 0.4% 0.7%  
326 0.1% 0.3% Majority
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0% 99.8%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.7%  
262 0% 99.7%  
263 0% 99.7%  
264 0% 99.7%  
265 0% 99.6%  
266 0% 99.6%  
267 0.2% 99.6%  
268 0% 99.4%  
269 0% 99.3%  
270 0.1% 99.3%  
271 0% 99.2%  
272 1.1% 99.2%  
273 0% 98%  
274 0.1% 98%  
275 0.9% 98%  
276 0% 97%  
277 0% 97%  
278 0.4% 97%  
279 0.5% 97%  
280 0.1% 96%  
281 0% 96%  
282 0.2% 96%  
283 0% 96%  
284 0% 96%  
285 0.6% 96%  
286 0% 95%  
287 14% 95%  
288 0.1% 81%  
289 0% 81%  
290 0.1% 81%  
291 0.2% 81%  
292 0.5% 81%  
293 4% 80%  
294 0% 76%  
295 0.1% 76%  
296 0.9% 76%  
297 7% 75%  
298 0.9% 68%  
299 0.2% 67%  
300 0.2% 67%  
301 24% 67% Median
302 0.2% 43%  
303 0% 43%  
304 29% 43%  
305 0.1% 14%  
306 0.3% 14%  
307 0% 14%  
308 0% 14%  
309 0.6% 14%  
310 5% 13%  
311 0.4% 8%  
312 0.5% 7%  
313 0% 7%  
314 0.3% 7%  
315 0.2% 7%  
316 0.7% 6%  
317 0% 6% Last Result
318 0% 6%  
319 0.3% 6%  
320 0% 5%  
321 1.5% 5%  
322 3% 4%  
323 0.2% 1.0%  
324 0.1% 0.8%  
325 0.4% 0.7%  
326 0.1% 0.3% Majority
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats – Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.8%  
237 0.1% 99.8%  
238 0% 99.6%  
239 0% 99.6%  
240 0% 99.6%  
241 0.8% 99.5%  
242 0.2% 98.7%  
243 0% 98.5%  
244 1.0% 98.5%  
245 0% 98%  
246 0.4% 98%  
247 0.4% 97%  
248 0.8% 97%  
249 0% 96%  
250 0.2% 96%  
251 0.1% 96%  
252 1.1% 96%  
253 0.2% 95%  
254 1.3% 94%  
255 0.2% 93%  
256 0.2% 93%  
257 8% 93%  
258 31% 85%  
259 0% 54%  
260 0.2% 54%  
261 0% 54% Median
262 5% 54%  
263 0.1% 49%  
264 0.3% 49%  
265 0% 48%  
266 0.3% 48%  
267 12% 48%  
268 0.2% 36%  
269 0.1% 36%  
270 24% 35%  
271 4% 12%  
272 0.1% 8%  
273 0% 8%  
274 0.1% 8%  
275 0.2% 8%  
276 0% 7%  
277 0% 7%  
278 0% 7%  
279 0.6% 7%  
280 0.3% 7%  
281 0% 6%  
282 0% 6%  
283 0% 6%  
284 0% 6%  
285 0% 6%  
286 0% 6%  
287 0% 6%  
288 0% 6%  
289 0% 6%  
290 0% 6%  
291 0.1% 6%  
292 0.5% 6%  
293 0% 6%  
294 0.4% 6%  
295 0% 5%  
296 0% 5%  
297 0% 5%  
298 0.1% 5%  
299 0% 5%  
300 0% 5%  
301 0% 5%  
302 2% 5%  
303 0.2% 3%  
304 0.5% 3%  
305 1.2% 3%  
306 0% 2%  
307 0% 2%  
308 0.7% 2%  
309 0% 0.8%  
310 0% 0.8%  
311 0% 0.8%  
312 0% 0.8%  
313 0.2% 0.8% Last Result
314 0% 0.6%  
315 0% 0.6%  
316 0.3% 0.5%  
317 0.1% 0.3%  
318 0.1% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats – Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0% 99.7%  
229 0.1% 99.7%  
230 0% 99.6%  
231 0.8% 99.6%  
232 0% 98.7%  
233 0% 98.7%  
234 1.1% 98.7%  
235 0% 98%  
236 0.4% 98%  
237 1.0% 97%  
238 0.1% 96%  
239 0.1% 96%  
240 0.3% 96%  
241 0.1% 96%  
242 1.1% 96%  
243 1.3% 94%  
244 0% 93%  
245 0.1% 93%  
246 0.5% 93%  
247 0.1% 93%  
248 0.4% 92%  
249 0.2% 92%  
250 0% 92%  
251 0% 92%  
252 35% 92%  
253 0% 57%  
254 3% 57% Median
255 0.2% 54%  
256 0.2% 54%  
257 0.6% 54%  
258 5% 53%  
259 0% 48%  
260 12% 48%  
261 0.1% 36%  
262 0.3% 36%  
263 24% 36%  
264 0.2% 12%  
265 0% 12%  
266 4% 12%  
267 0.1% 8%  
268 0.1% 8%  
269 0% 7%  
270 0.2% 7%  
271 0% 7%  
272 0.6% 7%  
273 0% 7%  
274 0% 7%  
275 0.1% 7%  
276 0% 6%  
277 0% 6%  
278 0% 6%  
279 0% 6%  
280 0% 6%  
281 0% 6%  
282 0.5% 6%  
283 0% 6%  
284 0.2% 6%  
285 0.2% 6%  
286 0% 5%  
287 0% 5%  
288 0.1% 5%  
289 0% 5%  
290 0% 5%  
291 0% 5%  
292 2% 5%  
293 0.2% 3%  
294 0.5% 3%  
295 1.2% 3%  
296 0% 2%  
297 0% 2%  
298 0.7% 2%  
299 0% 0.8%  
300 0% 0.8%  
301 0% 0.8%  
302 0% 0.8%  
303 0.1% 0.8%  
304 0% 0.6%  
305 0% 0.6%  
306 0.2% 0.6%  
307 0% 0.4%  
308 0.1% 0.4%  
309 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
310 0% 0.3%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0.1% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats – Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
178 0% 100%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0.1% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.8%  
183 0.1% 99.8%  
184 0% 99.7%  
185 0% 99.7%  
186 0% 99.6%  
187 0% 99.6%  
188 0% 99.6%  
189 0.2% 99.6%  
190 0% 99.3%  
191 0% 99.3%  
192 0.8% 99.3%  
193 0.4% 98%  
194 0% 98%  
195 0.9% 98%  
196 0% 97%  
197 0.2% 97%  
198 0.2% 97%  
199 0.3% 97%  
200 2% 96%  
201 0% 95%  
202 1.3% 95%  
203 0.1% 93%  
204 0% 93%  
205 8% 93%  
206 31% 86%  
207 0.2% 55%  
208 0% 55%  
209 0.1% 55% Median
210 5% 54%  
211 0.1% 49%  
212 0.1% 49%  
213 0.3% 49%  
214 0.1% 48%  
215 12% 48%  
216 0% 36%  
217 0.2% 36%  
218 24% 36%  
219 0% 12%  
220 0.1% 12%  
221 0% 12%  
222 4% 12%  
223 0.1% 8%  
224 0% 8%  
225 0% 8%  
226 0.1% 8%  
227 0.1% 8%  
228 0.1% 8%  
229 0% 7%  
230 0% 7%  
231 0.6% 7%  
232 0.2% 7%  
233 0% 7%  
234 0% 7%  
235 0% 6%  
236 0% 6%  
237 0.1% 6%  
238 0.6% 6%  
239 0% 6%  
240 0.4% 6%  
241 0% 5%  
242 0% 5%  
243 0% 5%  
244 0% 5%  
245 0% 5%  
246 0.1% 5%  
247 0% 5%  
248 0% 5%  
249 0% 5%  
250 2% 5%  
251 0% 3%  
252 0.5% 3%  
253 1.2% 3%  
254 0.1% 2%  
255 0% 2%  
256 0.7% 2%  
257 0% 0.8%  
258 0% 0.8%  
259 0% 0.8%  
260 0% 0.8%  
261 0.1% 0.8%  
262 0.1% 0.7%  
263 0% 0.6%  
264 0% 0.5%  
265 0.3% 0.5%  
266 0.1% 0.3%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats – Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0.1% 99.9%  
174 0% 99.8%  
175 0.1% 99.7%  
176 0% 99.6%  
177 0% 99.6%  
178 0% 99.6%  
179 0% 99.5%  
180 0% 99.5%  
181 0.2% 99.5%  
182 0.8% 99.3%  
183 0.3% 98.5%  
184 0.1% 98%  
185 0.8% 98%  
186 0.1% 97%  
187 0.2% 97%  
188 0.2% 97%  
189 1.1% 97%  
190 1.0% 96%  
191 1.3% 95%  
192 0.1% 93%  
193 0.2% 93%  
194 0.5% 93%  
195 0% 93%  
196 0.4% 93%  
197 0.1% 92%  
198 0.2% 92%  
199 0% 92%  
200 35% 92%  
201 0% 57%  
202 3% 57% Median
203 0.1% 54%  
204 0.1% 54%  
205 0.2% 54%  
206 5% 54%  
207 0.2% 48%  
208 12% 48%  
209 0.1% 36%  
210 0% 36%  
211 24% 36%  
212 0.1% 12%  
213 0.4% 12%  
214 0% 12%  
215 0.1% 12%  
216 0% 12%  
217 4% 12%  
218 0.1% 8%  
219 0.1% 8%  
220 0% 8%  
221 0.1% 8%  
222 0.3% 7%  
223 0% 7%  
224 0.6% 7%  
225 0% 7%  
226 0% 6%  
227 0% 6%  
228 0.5% 6%  
229 0% 6%  
230 0.2% 6%  
231 0.2% 6%  
232 0% 6%  
233 0% 6%  
234 0.1% 5%  
235 0% 5%  
236 0.1% 5%  
237 0% 5%  
238 0% 5%  
239 0% 5%  
240 2% 5%  
241 0% 3%  
242 0.5% 3%  
243 1.2% 3%  
244 0.1% 2%  
245 0% 2%  
246 0.7% 2%  
247 0% 0.8%  
248 0% 0.8%  
249 0% 0.8%  
250 0% 0.8%  
251 0.1% 0.8%  
252 0% 0.7%  
253 0% 0.7%  
254 0% 0.6%  
255 0.2% 0.6%  
256 0% 0.4%  
257 0% 0.3%  
258 0.1% 0.3%  
259 0% 0.3%  
260 0% 0.2%  
261 0.1% 0.2%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0.1% 99.9%  
174 0% 99.8%  
175 0.1% 99.7%  
176 0% 99.6%  
177 0% 99.6%  
178 0% 99.6%  
179 0% 99.5%  
180 0% 99.5%  
181 0.2% 99.5%  
182 0.8% 99.3%  
183 0.3% 98.5%  
184 0.1% 98%  
185 0.8% 98%  
186 0.1% 97%  
187 0.2% 97%  
188 0.2% 97%  
189 1.1% 97%  
190 1.0% 96%  
191 1.3% 95%  
192 0.1% 93%  
193 0.2% 93%  
194 0.5% 93%  
195 0% 93%  
196 0.4% 93%  
197 0.1% 92%  
198 0.2% 92%  
199 0% 92%  
200 35% 92%  
201 0% 57%  
202 3% 57% Median
203 0.1% 54%  
204 0.1% 54%  
205 0.2% 54%  
206 5% 54%  
207 0.2% 48%  
208 12% 48%  
209 0.1% 36%  
210 0% 36%  
211 24% 36%  
212 0.1% 12%  
213 0.4% 12%  
214 0% 12%  
215 0.1% 12%  
216 0% 12%  
217 4% 12%  
218 0.1% 8%  
219 0.1% 8%  
220 0% 8%  
221 0.1% 8%  
222 0.3% 7%  
223 0% 7%  
224 0.6% 7%  
225 0% 7%  
226 0% 6%  
227 0% 6%  
228 0.5% 6%  
229 0% 6%  
230 0.2% 6%  
231 0.2% 6%  
232 0% 6%  
233 0% 6%  
234 0.1% 5%  
235 0% 5%  
236 0.1% 5%  
237 0% 5%  
238 0% 5%  
239 0% 5%  
240 2% 5%  
241 0% 3%  
242 0.5% 3%  
243 1.2% 3%  
244 0.1% 2%  
245 0% 2%  
246 0.7% 2%  
247 0% 0.8%  
248 0% 0.8%  
249 0% 0.8%  
250 0% 0.8%  
251 0.1% 0.8%  
252 0% 0.7%  
253 0% 0.7%  
254 0% 0.6%  
255 0.2% 0.6%  
256 0% 0.4%  
257 0% 0.3%  
258 0.1% 0.3%  
259 0% 0.3%  
260 0% 0.2%  
261 0.1% 0.2%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0.2% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.7%  
162 0.2% 99.7%  
163 0% 99.5%  
164 0% 99.4%  
165 0.8% 99.4%  
166 0.8% 98.6%  
167 1.4% 98%  
168 0.7% 96%  
169 0.4% 96%  
170 0.4% 95%  
171 0% 95%  
172 0.8% 95%  
173 2% 94%  
174 0.4% 92%  
175 7% 92%  
176 0.2% 85%  
177 0.2% 84%  
178 43% 84%  
179 0.2% 42% Median
180 0.4% 41%  
181 9% 41%  
182 0.8% 32%  
183 0.1% 31%  
184 24% 31%  
185 0% 7%  
186 0% 7%  
187 0% 7%  
188 0% 7%  
189 0% 7%  
190 0.2% 7%  
191 0% 7%  
192 0% 7%  
193 0% 7%  
194 0.1% 7%  
195 0% 7%  
196 0.1% 7%  
197 0% 7%  
198 0.1% 7%  
199 0.1% 7%  
200 0% 7%  
201 0.1% 7%  
202 0% 7%  
203 0.3% 7%  
204 0% 6%  
205 0.1% 6%  
206 0% 6%  
207 0% 6%  
208 0% 6%  
209 0% 6%  
210 0% 6%  
211 0% 6%  
212 0% 6%  
213 0% 6%  
214 0.1% 6%  
215 0% 6%  
216 2% 6%  
217 2% 4%  
218 0.8% 2%  
219 0.6% 1.4%  
220 0.2% 0.8%  
221 0% 0.5%  
222 0.2% 0.5%  
223 0.1% 0.3%  
224 0% 0.3%  
225 0% 0.2%  
226 0.1% 0.2%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.8%  
150 0% 99.8%  
151 0% 99.8%  
152 0.2% 99.8%  
153 0% 99.6%  
154 0.2% 99.6%  
155 0.8% 99.4%  
156 0.5% 98.6%  
157 2% 98%  
158 0.3% 96%  
159 0.3% 96%  
160 0.3% 95%  
161 0.5% 95%  
162 2% 94%  
163 0.5% 93%  
164 0.1% 92%  
165 0.1% 92%  
166 0.4% 92%  
167 0% 92%  
168 0.1% 92%  
169 0.1% 91%  
170 7% 91%  
171 12% 84%  
172 28% 72% Median
173 0% 44%  
174 3% 44%  
175 1.1% 41%  
176 4% 40%  
177 29% 36%  
178 0.1% 7%  
179 0% 7%  
180 0% 7%  
181 0% 7%  
182 0% 7%  
183 0.1% 7%  
184 0% 7%  
185 0% 7%  
186 0.1% 7%  
187 0.1% 7%  
188 0% 7%  
189 0% 7%  
190 0% 7%  
191 0% 7%  
192 0.1% 7%  
193 0.3% 7%  
194 0.1% 6%  
195 0% 6%  
196 0% 6%  
197 0% 6%  
198 0% 6%  
199 0% 6%  
200 0% 6%  
201 0.1% 6%  
202 0.1% 6%  
203 0% 6%  
204 0.1% 6%  
205 0% 6%  
206 2% 6%  
207 2% 4%  
208 0.8% 2%  
209 0.6% 1.4%  
210 0.2% 0.8%  
211 0% 0.5%  
212 0.2% 0.5%  
213 0% 0.3%  
214 0% 0.3%  
215 0% 0.3%  
216 0% 0.3%  
217 0% 0.3%  
218 0% 0.3%  
219 0.1% 0.3%  
220 0% 0.2%  
221 0.1% 0.2%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0.1% 0.1%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.8%  
108 0.1% 99.7%  
109 0% 99.6%  
110 0.1% 99.6%  
111 0% 99.5%  
112 0% 99.5%  
113 0.3% 99.5%  
114 0.3% 99.2%  
115 0.7% 98.9%  
116 1.0% 98%  
117 0.3% 97%  
118 0.9% 97%  
119 0% 96%  
120 2% 96%  
121 1.4% 94%  
122 0.3% 93%  
123 7% 92%  
124 0.1% 85%  
125 0.2% 85%  
126 43% 85%  
127 0.3% 42% Median
128 0.2% 41%  
129 5% 41%  
130 0.1% 36%  
131 0.2% 36%  
132 28% 36%  
133 0.4% 8%  
134 0.6% 8%  
135 0.1% 7%  
136 0% 7%  
137 0% 7%  
138 0.1% 7%  
139 0.1% 7%  
140 0% 7%  
141 0% 7%  
142 0.1% 7%  
143 0% 7%  
144 0% 7%  
145 0% 7%  
146 0% 7%  
147 0% 7%  
148 0% 7%  
149 0.1% 7%  
150 0% 7%  
151 0% 7%  
152 0.1% 7%  
153 0% 7%  
154 0.1% 7%  
155 0.3% 7%  
156 0.1% 6%  
157 0% 6%  
158 0% 6%  
159 0% 6%  
160 0% 6%  
161 0% 6%  
162 0.9% 6%  
163 0% 5%  
164 1.2% 5%  
165 2% 4%  
166 0.7% 2%  
167 0.5% 1.4%  
168 0.1% 1.0%  
169 0.2% 0.9%  
170 0.3% 0.7%  
171 0% 0.4%  
172 0.1% 0.4%  
173 0% 0.2%  
174 0% 0.2%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.7%  
100 0.1% 99.7%  
101 0% 99.5%  
102 0.1% 99.5%  
103 0% 99.4%  
104 0.1% 99.4%  
105 1.0% 99.2%  
106 1.0% 98%  
107 0.2% 97%  
108 0.8% 97%  
109 1.1% 96%  
110 2% 95%  
111 0.1% 93%  
112 0.1% 93%  
113 0.2% 93%  
114 0.2% 92%  
115 0.5% 92%  
116 0.1% 92%  
117 0.1% 92%  
118 7% 92%  
119 12% 85%  
120 28% 72% Median
121 0.1% 44%  
122 3% 44%  
123 0.3% 41%  
124 0% 41%  
125 29% 41%  
126 0.1% 12%  
127 5% 12%  
128 0.5% 8%  
129 0% 7%  
130 0% 7%  
131 0% 7%  
132 0.1% 7%  
133 0% 7%  
134 0% 7%  
135 0.1% 7%  
136 0% 7%  
137 0% 7%  
138 0% 7%  
139 0.1% 7%  
140 0% 7%  
141 0% 7%  
142 0% 7%  
143 0% 7%  
144 0% 7%  
145 0.3% 7%  
146 0% 6%  
147 0% 6%  
148 0% 6%  
149 0% 6%  
150 0.1% 6%  
151 0% 6%  
152 0.8% 6%  
153 0.2% 5%  
154 1.2% 5%  
155 2% 4%  
156 0.7% 2%  
157 0.5% 1.4%  
158 0.1% 1.0%  
159 0.2% 0.9%  
160 0.3% 0.7%  
161 0% 0.4%  
162 0% 0.4%  
163 0% 0.4%  
164 0% 0.3%  
165 0% 0.3%  
166 0% 0.3%  
167 0% 0.3%  
168 0.1% 0.3%  
169 0% 0.2%  
170 0.1% 0.2%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0.1% 0.1%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.7%  
100 0.1% 99.7%  
101 0% 99.5%  
102 0.1% 99.5%  
103 0% 99.4%  
104 0.1% 99.4%  
105 1.0% 99.2%  
106 1.0% 98%  
107 0.2% 97%  
108 0.8% 97%  
109 1.1% 96%  
110 2% 95%  
111 0.1% 93%  
112 0.1% 93%  
113 0.2% 93%  
114 0.2% 92%  
115 0.5% 92%  
116 0.1% 92%  
117 0.1% 92%  
118 7% 92%  
119 12% 85%  
120 28% 72% Median
121 0.1% 44%  
122 3% 44%  
123 0.3% 41%  
124 0% 41%  
125 29% 41%  
126 0.1% 12%  
127 5% 12%  
128 0.5% 8%  
129 0% 7%  
130 0% 7%  
131 0% 7%  
132 0.1% 7%  
133 0% 7%  
134 0% 7%  
135 0.1% 7%  
136 0% 7%  
137 0% 7%  
138 0% 7%  
139 0.1% 7%  
140 0% 7%  
141 0% 7%  
142 0% 7%  
143 0% 7%  
144 0% 7%  
145 0.3% 7%  
146 0% 6%  
147 0% 6%  
148 0% 6%  
149 0% 6%  
150 0.1% 6%  
151 0% 6%  
152 0.8% 6%  
153 0.2% 5%  
154 1.2% 5%  
155 2% 4%  
156 0.7% 2%  
157 0.5% 1.4%  
158 0.1% 1.0%  
159 0.2% 0.9%  
160 0.3% 0.7%  
161 0% 0.4%  
162 0% 0.4%  
163 0% 0.4%  
164 0% 0.3%  
165 0% 0.3%  
166 0% 0.3%  
167 0% 0.3%  
168 0.1% 0.3%  
169 0% 0.2%  
170 0.1% 0.2%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0.1% 0.1%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations