Opinion Poll by ComRes for Britain Elects, 18–19 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 29.4% 28.1–30.7% 27.7–31.1% 27.4–31.4% 26.8–32.0%
Labour Party 40.0% 27.4% 26.1–28.7% 25.8–29.0% 25.5–29.3% 24.9–30.0%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 20.2% 19.1–21.4% 18.8–21.7% 18.5–22.0% 18.0–22.6%
Brexit Party 0.0% 13.2% 12.3–14.2% 12.0–14.5% 11.8–14.7% 11.3–15.2%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.4–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.0–5.3%
Green Party 1.6% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.4–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.0–5.3%
Change UK 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 234 227–258 206–260 206–272 206–276
Labour Party 262 237 204–244 203–251 193–251 186–264
Liberal Democrats 12 73 72–82 72–88 70–88 65–88
Brexit Party 0 31 30–45 29–45 25–45 20–46
Scottish National Party 35 53 51–53 51–53 49–53 49–54
Green Party 1 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.8%  
195 0% 99.8%  
196 0% 99.7%  
197 0% 99.7%  
198 0% 99.7%  
199 0% 99.7%  
200 0.1% 99.7%  
201 0% 99.6%  
202 0% 99.6%  
203 0% 99.6%  
204 0% 99.6%  
205 0% 99.6%  
206 6% 99.5%  
207 0% 94%  
208 0.1% 94%  
209 0% 94%  
210 0% 94%  
211 0.1% 94%  
212 3% 94%  
213 0% 91%  
214 0% 91%  
215 0% 91%  
216 0% 91%  
217 0% 91%  
218 0% 90%  
219 0% 90%  
220 0% 90%  
221 0.1% 90%  
222 0% 90%  
223 0% 90%  
224 0% 90%  
225 0.1% 90%  
226 0% 90%  
227 0.2% 90%  
228 0.1% 90%  
229 23% 90%  
230 0.1% 67%  
231 0% 67%  
232 0.8% 67%  
233 0% 66%  
234 33% 66% Median
235 1.0% 33%  
236 0.3% 32%  
237 0.4% 32%  
238 0.6% 31%  
239 0.1% 31%  
240 0.3% 31%  
241 0.1% 30%  
242 1.3% 30%  
243 0% 29%  
244 0% 29%  
245 0% 29%  
246 2% 29%  
247 8% 26%  
248 0.3% 19%  
249 0.4% 18%  
250 0.2% 18%  
251 1.5% 18%  
252 0.2% 16%  
253 1.3% 16%  
254 0.1% 15%  
255 0.7% 15%  
256 0% 14%  
257 2% 14%  
258 7% 12%  
259 0.1% 5%  
260 0.2% 5%  
261 0% 5%  
262 0.9% 5%  
263 0% 4%  
264 0.1% 4%  
265 0% 4%  
266 0% 4%  
267 0.1% 4%  
268 0.4% 4%  
269 0% 3%  
270 0.2% 3%  
271 0.2% 3%  
272 1.4% 3%  
273 0.2% 2%  
274 0.3% 1.4%  
275 0.6% 1.1%  
276 0.3% 0.5%  
277 0% 0.2%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0.6% 99.9%  
187 0% 99.3%  
188 0% 99.3%  
189 0.3% 99.3%  
190 1.4% 99.0%  
191 0% 98%  
192 0% 98%  
193 0.1% 98%  
194 0% 97%  
195 0.1% 97%  
196 0.7% 97%  
197 0% 97%  
198 0% 97%  
199 0% 97%  
200 0.2% 97%  
201 0.4% 96%  
202 0.2% 96%  
203 1.4% 96%  
204 6% 94%  
205 0.7% 89%  
206 0.3% 88%  
207 2% 88%  
208 0% 86%  
209 0% 86%  
210 0.1% 86%  
211 4% 86%  
212 8% 82%  
213 2% 74%  
214 0.1% 72%  
215 0% 72%  
216 0% 72%  
217 0.1% 72%  
218 0.1% 72%  
219 0% 72%  
220 0.1% 72%  
221 0.5% 72%  
222 2% 71%  
223 0% 70%  
224 0.1% 70%  
225 0% 69%  
226 0% 69%  
227 0.3% 69%  
228 0% 69%  
229 0.2% 69%  
230 0% 69%  
231 0.9% 69%  
232 0.1% 68%  
233 0.2% 68%  
234 0.2% 68%  
235 0% 68%  
236 0.1% 68%  
237 23% 67% Median
238 33% 45%  
239 0% 12%  
240 0% 12%  
241 0.3% 12%  
242 0.1% 11%  
243 0.5% 11%  
244 1.0% 11%  
245 0% 10%  
246 0% 10%  
247 0.1% 10%  
248 0% 10%  
249 0% 10%  
250 0% 10%  
251 9% 10%  
252 0% 0.9%  
253 0% 0.9%  
254 0.1% 0.9%  
255 0% 0.8%  
256 0% 0.8%  
257 0% 0.8%  
258 0% 0.8%  
259 0.1% 0.7%  
260 0% 0.6%  
261 0% 0.6%  
262 0% 0.6% Last Result
263 0.1% 0.6%  
264 0% 0.5%  
265 0.1% 0.5%  
266 0% 0.4%  
267 0.1% 0.4%  
268 0.1% 0.3%  
269 0% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0.1% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.7%  
65 0.2% 99.6%  
66 0.2% 99.4%  
67 0.4% 99.2%  
68 0.7% 98.8%  
69 0.3% 98%  
70 2% 98%  
71 0.1% 96%  
72 44% 96%  
73 2% 51% Median
74 1.3% 50%  
75 2% 48%  
76 8% 47%  
77 0.2% 39%  
78 0.1% 39%  
79 3% 39%  
80 5% 36%  
81 0.1% 31%  
82 23% 31%  
83 0.1% 8%  
84 1.4% 8%  
85 0% 6%  
86 0.4% 6%  
87 0.1% 6%  
88 6% 6%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.1% 99.8%  
14 0% 99.7%  
15 0% 99.7%  
16 0.1% 99.7%  
17 0% 99.6%  
18 0% 99.6%  
19 0% 99.6%  
20 0.2% 99.6%  
21 0.1% 99.4%  
22 0.2% 99.3%  
23 0% 99.2%  
24 1.4% 99.1%  
25 0.4% 98%  
26 0.5% 97%  
27 0.2% 97%  
28 0.5% 97%  
29 4% 96%  
30 24% 93%  
31 39% 69% Median
32 3% 30%  
33 0.1% 27%  
34 0.2% 27%  
35 0.1% 26%  
36 2% 26%  
37 1.0% 25%  
38 0% 24%  
39 4% 24%  
40 6% 20%  
41 0.2% 14%  
42 0% 14%  
43 0.8% 13%  
44 0.3% 13%  
45 11% 12%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0% 0.3%  
48 0% 0.3%  
49 0% 0.3%  
50 0% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 3% 99.8%  
50 0% 97%  
51 44% 97%  
52 2% 52%  
53 50% 51% Median
54 1.3% 1.3%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 10% 100% Last Result
2 90% 90% Median
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0%  

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100%  
1 33% 63% Median
2 19% 30%  
3 10% 11%  
4 2% 2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 364 96% 333–371 332–392 322–392 319–393
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 363 96% 331–370 330–390 320–390 316–392
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 311 16% 300–334 294–336 292–345 285–354
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 311 16% 300–334 294–336 292–345 285–354
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 311 10% 282–320 282–341 271–341 268–342
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 310 10% 280–319 278–339 269–339 265–341
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 310 10% 280–319 278–339 269–339 265–341
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 288 1.4% 280–311 259–314 259–325 259–329
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 287 1.2% 278–309 257–311 257–323 257–328
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 265 0.1% 258–298 237–298 237–308 237–312
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 288 0.1% 257–298 254–304 246–305 240–318
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 288 0.1% 255–296 254–302 244–302 237–315
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 235 0% 229–260 208–264 208–274 208–278
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 234 0% 227–258 206–260 206–272 206–276
Conservative Party 317 234 0% 227–258 206–260 206–272 206–276
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 237 0% 206–247 204–253 195–254 189–267
Labour Party – Change UK 262 237 0% 204–244 203–251 193–251 186–264
Labour Party 262 237 0% 204–244 203–251 193–251 186–264

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.8% Last Result
314 0% 99.8%  
315 0% 99.8%  
316 0% 99.8%  
317 0% 99.7%  
318 0.2% 99.7%  
319 0.8% 99.5%  
320 0% 98.7%  
321 0% 98.7%  
322 1.4% 98.7%  
323 0.4% 97%  
324 1.0% 97%  
325 0% 96%  
326 0.1% 96% Majority
327 0.3% 96%  
328 0.1% 96%  
329 0% 95%  
330 0% 95%  
331 0.3% 95%  
332 2% 95%  
333 6% 94%  
334 2% 88%  
335 0.3% 86%  
336 0.7% 86%  
337 8% 85%  
338 3% 77%  
339 0% 74%  
340 0.1% 74%  
341 0.1% 74%  
342 2% 74%  
343 0.1% 72%  
344 0% 72%  
345 0% 72%  
346 0.1% 72%  
347 0.1% 72%  
348 0.2% 72%  
349 0% 72%  
350 0% 72%  
351 0.1% 71%  
352 0.1% 71%  
353 0.1% 71%  
354 0.1% 71%  
355 0.1% 71%  
356 0% 71%  
357 0% 71%  
358 1.3% 71%  
359 0.1% 70%  
360 0% 70%  
361 0% 70%  
362 0.7% 69%  
363 0.1% 69%  
364 33% 69% Median
365 0% 35%  
366 0.5% 35%  
367 0.8% 35%  
368 0.3% 34%  
369 0% 34%  
370 24% 34%  
371 0.3% 10%  
372 0% 10%  
373 0% 10%  
374 0% 10%  
375 0.1% 10%  
376 0% 10%  
377 0.1% 10%  
378 0% 10%  
379 0.1% 10%  
380 0% 10%  
381 0% 10%  
382 0% 9%  
383 0% 9%  
384 0% 9%  
385 3% 9%  
386 0% 6%  
387 0% 6%  
388 0% 6%  
389 0.1% 6%  
390 0% 6%  
391 0.1% 6%  
392 6% 6%  
393 0.1% 0.6%  
394 0.1% 0.5%  
395 0% 0.4%  
396 0.1% 0.4%  
397 0% 0.3%  
398 0% 0.3%  
399 0% 0.3%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0.1% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
302 0.1% 100%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9% Last Result
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.8%  
312 0% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0.2% 99.8%  
315 0% 99.5%  
316 0.7% 99.5%  
317 0% 98.9%  
318 0% 98.9%  
319 0.1% 98.8%  
320 2% 98.7%  
321 0% 97%  
322 0.8% 97%  
323 0% 96%  
324 0.3% 96%  
325 0% 96%  
326 0.1% 96% Majority
327 0.4% 96%  
328 0.1% 95%  
329 0.1% 95%  
330 2% 95%  
331 6% 93%  
332 0.1% 88%  
333 0.7% 88%  
334 2% 87%  
335 0.2% 85%  
336 2% 85%  
337 8% 83%  
338 1.2% 75%  
339 2% 74%  
340 0% 72%  
341 0.2% 72%  
342 0% 72%  
343 0% 72%  
344 0.1% 72%  
345 0% 72%  
346 0% 72%  
347 0.3% 72%  
348 0.1% 71%  
349 0% 71%  
350 0.1% 71%  
351 0% 71%  
352 0% 71%  
353 0.2% 71%  
354 0% 71%  
355 1.3% 71%  
356 0% 70%  
357 0.1% 70%  
358 0% 70%  
359 0.4% 70%  
360 0.4% 69%  
361 0% 69%  
362 0.3% 69%  
363 33% 68% Median
364 1.1% 35%  
365 0% 34%  
366 0.5% 34%  
367 0.3% 34%  
368 0% 34%  
369 0% 34%  
370 24% 34%  
371 0.1% 10%  
372 0% 10%  
373 0% 10%  
374 0.1% 10%  
375 0% 10%  
376 0% 10%  
377 0.1% 10%  
378 0% 10%  
379 0.1% 10%  
380 0% 9%  
381 0% 9%  
382 3% 9%  
383 0% 6%  
384 0% 6%  
385 0% 6%  
386 0% 6%  
387 0% 6%  
388 0% 6%  
389 0.1% 6%  
390 6% 6%  
391 0% 0.6%  
392 0.1% 0.5%  
393 0.1% 0.4%  
394 0% 0.4%  
395 0% 0.3%  
396 0% 0.3%  
397 0% 0.3%  
398 0% 0.3%  
399 0% 0.3%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0.1% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.7%  
278 0% 99.7%  
279 0% 99.7%  
280 0% 99.7%  
281 0% 99.7%  
282 0% 99.6%  
283 0.1% 99.6%  
284 0% 99.6%  
285 0.1% 99.5%  
286 0% 99.4%  
287 0% 99.4%  
288 0% 99.4%  
289 0% 99.4%  
290 0.1% 99.3%  
291 0% 99.3%  
292 3% 99.3%  
293 0% 96%  
294 6% 96%  
295 0% 90%  
296 0% 90%  
297 0.1% 90%  
298 0.1% 90%  
299 0% 90%  
300 0.3% 90%  
301 0% 90%  
302 0.1% 90%  
303 0.1% 90%  
304 0% 90%  
305 0.4% 90%  
306 33% 89%  
307 0% 56% Median
308 0.3% 56%  
309 1.0% 56%  
310 0.3% 55%  
311 23% 55%  
312 0.8% 32%  
313 0.2% 31%  
314 0% 31%  
315 0% 31%  
316 0% 31%  
317 0.2% 31%  
318 2% 31%  
319 8% 28%  
320 0.3% 21%  
321 1.5% 20%  
322 2% 19%  
323 0.2% 17%  
324 0.5% 17%  
325 0% 16%  
326 0.1% 16% Majority
327 0.1% 16%  
328 0.3% 16%  
329 0.2% 16% Last Result
330 0.6% 16%  
331 2% 15%  
332 0.2% 14%  
333 2% 13%  
334 6% 12%  
335 0.3% 5%  
336 0.2% 5%  
337 1.2% 5%  
338 0.5% 4%  
339 0.2% 3%  
340 0.1% 3%  
341 0.1% 3%  
342 0.1% 3%  
343 0.1% 3%  
344 0% 3%  
345 0.2% 3%  
346 0% 2%  
347 0% 2%  
348 0% 2%  
349 0% 2%  
350 0% 2%  
351 1.4% 2%  
352 0% 1.0%  
353 0.1% 1.0%  
354 0.7% 0.9%  
355 0.1% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.7%  
278 0% 99.7%  
279 0% 99.7%  
280 0% 99.7%  
281 0% 99.7%  
282 0% 99.6%  
283 0.1% 99.6%  
284 0% 99.6%  
285 0.1% 99.5%  
286 0% 99.4%  
287 0% 99.4%  
288 0% 99.4%  
289 0% 99.4%  
290 0.1% 99.3%  
291 0% 99.3%  
292 3% 99.3%  
293 0% 96%  
294 6% 96%  
295 0% 90%  
296 0% 90%  
297 0.1% 90%  
298 0.1% 90%  
299 0% 90%  
300 0.3% 90%  
301 0% 90%  
302 0.1% 90%  
303 0.1% 90%  
304 0% 90%  
305 0.4% 90%  
306 33% 89%  
307 0% 56% Median
308 0.3% 56%  
309 1.0% 56%  
310 0.3% 55%  
311 23% 55%  
312 0.8% 32%  
313 0.2% 31%  
314 0% 31%  
315 0% 31%  
316 0% 31%  
317 0.2% 31%  
318 2% 31%  
319 8% 28%  
320 0.3% 21%  
321 1.5% 20%  
322 2% 19%  
323 0.2% 17%  
324 0.5% 17%  
325 0% 16%  
326 0.1% 16% Majority
327 0.1% 16%  
328 0.3% 16%  
329 0.2% 16% Last Result
330 0.6% 16%  
331 2% 15%  
332 0.2% 14%  
333 2% 13%  
334 6% 12%  
335 0.3% 5%  
336 0.2% 5%  
337 1.2% 5%  
338 0.5% 4%  
339 0.2% 3%  
340 0.1% 3%  
341 0.1% 3%  
342 0.1% 3%  
343 0.1% 3%  
344 0% 3%  
345 0.2% 3%  
346 0% 2%  
347 0% 2%  
348 0% 2%  
349 0% 2%  
350 0% 2%  
351 1.4% 2%  
352 0% 1.0%  
353 0.1% 1.0%  
354 0.7% 0.9%  
355 0.1% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.8%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.8%  
266 0% 99.7%  
267 0.1% 99.7%  
268 0.7% 99.6%  
269 0.2% 98.9%  
270 0.9% 98.7%  
271 1.4% 98%  
272 0% 96%  
273 0.2% 96%  
274 0.6% 96%  
275 0.1% 96%  
276 0% 96%  
277 0.1% 96%  
278 0% 95% Last Result
279 0% 95%  
280 0.1% 95%  
281 0.3% 95%  
282 6% 95%  
283 4% 89%  
284 8% 85%  
285 2% 78%  
286 0% 75%  
287 1.5% 75%  
288 0% 74%  
289 2% 74%  
290 0.2% 72%  
291 0% 72%  
292 0.2% 72%  
293 0% 72%  
294 0.1% 72%  
295 0% 72%  
296 0% 72%  
297 0.2% 72%  
298 0.1% 72%  
299 0% 71%  
300 0.1% 71%  
301 0.2% 71%  
302 0% 71%  
303 0% 71%  
304 0% 71%  
305 1.4% 71%  
306 0.1% 70%  
307 0% 70%  
308 0.1% 70%  
309 0% 70%  
310 0.5% 70%  
311 33% 69% Median
312 0% 36%  
313 1.2% 36%  
314 0.8% 35%  
315 0.2% 34%  
316 0% 34%  
317 0.1% 34%  
318 1.0% 34%  
319 23% 33%  
320 0.3% 10%  
321 0% 10%  
322 0% 10%  
323 0% 10%  
324 0.1% 10%  
325 0% 10%  
326 0.2% 10% Majority
327 0% 10%  
328 0% 10%  
329 0% 10%  
330 0% 9%  
331 0% 9%  
332 0% 9%  
333 0% 9%  
334 3% 9%  
335 0% 6%  
336 0% 6%  
337 0% 6%  
338 0.1% 6%  
339 0% 6%  
340 0% 6%  
341 6% 6%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0.1% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.8%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0.2% 99.7%  
265 0.7% 99.6%  
266 0% 98.8%  
267 0% 98.8%  
268 1.0% 98.8%  
269 1.4% 98%  
270 0.1% 96%  
271 0.4% 96%  
272 0% 96%  
273 0.2% 96%  
274 0.3% 96% Last Result
275 0.1% 96%  
276 0% 95%  
277 0.2% 95%  
278 0.3% 95%  
279 0% 95%  
280 6% 95%  
281 2% 88%  
282 0.1% 87%  
283 4% 87%  
284 8% 83%  
285 0% 75%  
286 2% 75%  
287 1.5% 74%  
288 0% 72%  
289 0% 72%  
290 0.2% 72%  
291 0% 72%  
292 0% 72%  
293 0% 72%  
294 0.2% 72%  
295 0% 72%  
296 0.2% 72%  
297 0.1% 71%  
298 0% 71%  
299 0.1% 71%  
300 0.1% 71%  
301 0.1% 71%  
302 1.3% 71%  
303 0% 70%  
304 0.1% 70%  
305 0% 70%  
306 0% 70%  
307 0.4% 70%  
308 0% 69%  
309 0.3% 69%  
310 33% 69% Median
311 1.4% 36%  
312 0% 34%  
313 0.6% 34%  
314 0.1% 34%  
315 0% 34%  
316 0.2% 34%  
317 0% 34%  
318 1.0% 34%  
319 23% 33%  
320 0.1% 10%  
321 0% 10%  
322 0% 10%  
323 0.1% 10%  
324 0% 10%  
325 0% 10%  
326 0.2% 10% Majority
327 0% 9%  
328 0% 9%  
329 0% 9%  
330 0% 9%  
331 3% 9%  
332 0% 6%  
333 0% 6%  
334 0% 6%  
335 0% 6%  
336 0% 6%  
337 0% 6%  
338 0.1% 6%  
339 6% 6%  
340 0% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.5%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0% 0.4%  
344 0% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.8%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0.2% 99.7%  
265 0.7% 99.6%  
266 0% 98.8%  
267 0% 98.8%  
268 1.0% 98.8%  
269 1.4% 98%  
270 0.1% 96%  
271 0.4% 96%  
272 0% 96%  
273 0.2% 96%  
274 0.3% 96% Last Result
275 0.1% 96%  
276 0% 95%  
277 0.2% 95%  
278 0.3% 95%  
279 0% 95%  
280 6% 95%  
281 2% 88%  
282 0.1% 87%  
283 4% 87%  
284 8% 83%  
285 0% 75%  
286 2% 75%  
287 1.5% 74%  
288 0% 72%  
289 0% 72%  
290 0.2% 72%  
291 0% 72%  
292 0% 72%  
293 0% 72%  
294 0.2% 72%  
295 0% 72%  
296 0.2% 72%  
297 0.1% 71%  
298 0% 71%  
299 0.1% 71%  
300 0.1% 71%  
301 0.1% 71%  
302 1.3% 71%  
303 0% 70%  
304 0.1% 70%  
305 0% 70%  
306 0% 70%  
307 0.4% 70%  
308 0% 69%  
309 0.3% 69%  
310 33% 69% Median
311 1.4% 36%  
312 0% 34%  
313 0.6% 34%  
314 0.1% 34%  
315 0% 34%  
316 0.2% 34%  
317 0% 34%  
318 1.0% 34%  
319 23% 33%  
320 0.1% 10%  
321 0% 10%  
322 0% 10%  
323 0.1% 10%  
324 0% 10%  
325 0% 10%  
326 0.2% 10% Majority
327 0% 9%  
328 0% 9%  
329 0% 9%  
330 0% 9%  
331 3% 9%  
332 0% 6%  
333 0% 6%  
334 0% 6%  
335 0% 6%  
336 0% 6%  
337 0% 6%  
338 0.1% 6%  
339 6% 6%  
340 0% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.5%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0% 0.4%  
344 0% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.8%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.7%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0% 99.7%  
254 0% 99.6%  
255 0% 99.6%  
256 0% 99.6%  
257 0% 99.6%  
258 0% 99.5%  
259 6% 99.5%  
260 0% 94%  
261 0% 94%  
262 0.1% 94%  
263 0% 94%  
264 0% 94%  
265 0% 94%  
266 3% 94%  
267 0% 91%  
268 0% 91%  
269 0% 91%  
270 0% 91%  
271 0.1% 91%  
272 0% 90%  
273 0% 90%  
274 0.1% 90%  
275 0% 90%  
276 0% 90%  
277 0% 90%  
278 0.1% 90%  
279 0% 90%  
280 23% 90%  
281 0.1% 68%  
282 0.5% 67%  
283 0% 67%  
284 0% 67%  
285 0% 67%  
286 0.1% 67%  
287 1.1% 67%  
288 34% 66% Median
289 0.2% 32%  
290 0.1% 32%  
291 0% 32%  
292 0.3% 32%  
293 0.7% 31%  
294 0.1% 31%  
295 0.3% 31%  
296 0% 30%  
297 0.3% 30%  
298 1.5% 30%  
299 0% 28%  
300 8% 28%  
301 2% 21%  
302 1.5% 18%  
303 0.2% 17%  
304 1.4% 17%  
305 0.1% 15%  
306 0.2% 15%  
307 0.1% 15%  
308 2% 15%  
309 0% 13%  
310 0% 13%  
311 6% 13%  
312 0.1% 7%  
313 0.2% 7%  
314 2% 7%  
315 0% 5%  
316 0.1% 5%  
317 0% 5%  
318 0.8% 5%  
319 0.1% 4%  
320 0.4% 4%  
321 0.1% 4%  
322 0.1% 3%  
323 0.2% 3%  
324 0.1% 3%  
325 2% 3%  
326 0.2% 1.4% Majority
327 0.1% 1.2%  
328 0% 1.2%  
329 0.8% 1.1%  
330 0% 0.3%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0% 99.8%  
248 0% 99.7%  
249 0% 99.7%  
250 0% 99.7%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0% 99.6%  
253 0% 99.6%  
254 0% 99.6%  
255 0% 99.6%  
256 0% 99.5%  
257 6% 99.5%  
258 0% 94%  
259 0.1% 94%  
260 0% 94%  
261 0% 94%  
262 0.1% 94%  
263 3% 94%  
264 0% 91%  
265 0% 91%  
266 0% 91%  
267 0% 91%  
268 0.1% 91%  
269 0% 90%  
270 0% 90%  
271 0% 90%  
272 0.1% 90%  
273 0% 90%  
274 0% 90%  
275 0% 90%  
276 0% 90%  
277 0% 90%  
278 0.3% 90%  
279 0.1% 90%  
280 23% 90%  
281 0.1% 67%  
282 0.3% 67%  
283 0% 67%  
284 0% 67%  
285 1.0% 67%  
286 0% 66%  
287 34% 66% Median
288 0.1% 32%  
289 0% 32%  
290 0.8% 32%  
291 0.5% 31%  
292 0.1% 30%  
293 0.1% 30%  
294 0.1% 30%  
295 1.3% 30%  
296 0% 29%  
297 0.4% 29%  
298 0.2% 28%  
299 2% 28%  
300 9% 26%  
301 0.2% 17%  
302 0.2% 17%  
303 0.2% 16%  
304 1.2% 16%  
305 0.1% 15%  
306 0.1% 15%  
307 0% 15%  
308 2% 15%  
309 6% 13%  
310 0.2% 7%  
311 2% 7%  
312 0% 5%  
313 0.1% 5%  
314 0% 5%  
315 0% 5%  
316 0.9% 5%  
317 0.4% 4%  
318 0% 4%  
319 0.1% 4%  
320 0% 3%  
321 0.1% 3%  
322 0.4% 3%  
323 1.4% 3%  
324 0.1% 1.4%  
325 0.2% 1.4%  
326 0.6% 1.2% Majority
327 0.1% 0.6%  
328 0% 0.5%  
329 0.3% 0.5%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0.1% 100%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.8%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.8%  
229 0% 99.8%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0% 99.7%  
232 0% 99.7%  
233 0% 99.7%  
234 0.1% 99.7%  
235 0% 99.6%  
236 0% 99.5%  
237 6% 99.5%  
238 0.1% 94%  
239 0% 94%  
240 0.1% 94%  
241 0% 94%  
242 0% 94%  
243 0% 94%  
244 3% 94%  
245 0% 91%  
246 0% 91%  
247 0% 91%  
248 0% 91%  
249 0% 90%  
250 0.1% 90%  
251 0% 90%  
252 0.1% 90%  
253 0% 90%  
254 0% 90%  
255 0.1% 90%  
256 0% 90%  
257 0.1% 90%  
258 0.3% 90%  
259 24% 90%  
260 0% 66%  
261 0.1% 66%  
262 1.0% 66%  
263 0.5% 65%  
264 0.2% 65%  
265 33% 64% Median
266 0.1% 31%  
267 0.5% 31%  
268 0% 31%  
269 0.2% 31%  
270 0.1% 30%  
271 1.4% 30%  
272 0% 29%  
273 0% 29%  
274 0.1% 29%  
275 0% 29%  
276 0.1% 29%  
277 0.2% 29%  
278 0.1% 29%  
279 0% 29%  
280 0% 28%  
281 0% 28%  
282 0.3% 28%  
283 0.2% 28%  
284 0% 28%  
285 0% 28%  
286 0% 28%  
287 2% 28%  
288 0.1% 26%  
289 0.1% 26%  
290 0% 26%  
291 2% 26%  
292 9% 24%  
293 0.3% 15%  
294 0.8% 15%  
295 0.1% 14%  
296 2% 14%  
297 1.5% 12%  
298 6% 11%  
299 0.1% 5%  
300 0.2% 5%  
301 0.1% 5%  
302 0% 5%  
303 0.1% 5%  
304 0.3% 4%  
305 0.7% 4%  
306 0.4% 3%  
307 0.3% 3%  
308 1.4% 3%  
309 0% 1.3%  
310 0% 1.3%  
311 0.2% 1.3%  
312 0.7% 1.0%  
313 0% 0.3%  
314 0% 0.3%  
315 0% 0.3%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.2% Last Result
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.8% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.0%  
242 0% 99.0%  
243 1.4% 99.0%  
244 0% 98%  
245 0% 98%  
246 0.1% 98%  
247 0% 97%  
248 0% 97%  
249 0% 97%  
250 0.1% 97%  
251 0% 97%  
252 0.7% 97%  
253 0.5% 97%  
254 1.2% 96%  
255 0.1% 95%  
256 0.3% 95%  
257 6% 95%  
258 2% 89%  
259 0.2% 87%  
260 0.1% 87%  
261 0.7% 87%  
262 2% 86%  
263 0% 84%  
264 0.3% 84%  
265 8% 84%  
266 2% 76%  
267 0.2% 74%  
268 0.1% 74%  
269 2% 74%  
270 0% 72%  
271 0% 72%  
272 0% 72%  
273 0% 72%  
274 0.2% 72%  
275 0.2% 72%  
276 0.6% 71%  
277 0.1% 71%  
278 1.3% 71%  
279 0.1% 69%  
280 0% 69%  
281 0% 69%  
282 0.4% 69%  
283 0% 69%  
284 0.1% 69%  
285 0% 69%  
286 0.1% 69%  
287 1.3% 69%  
288 23% 67%  
289 0% 45%  
290 0% 45%  
291 0% 45% Median
292 33% 45%  
293 0% 12%  
294 0.1% 12%  
295 0% 12%  
296 1.2% 12%  
297 0% 11%  
298 0.6% 10%  
299 0% 10%  
300 0% 10%  
301 0.1% 10% Last Result
302 0.1% 10%  
303 0.1% 10%  
304 6% 10%  
305 3% 4%  
306 0.1% 0.9%  
307 0% 0.8%  
308 0% 0.8%  
309 0.1% 0.8%  
310 0% 0.8%  
311 0% 0.8%  
312 0.1% 0.7%  
313 0% 0.6%  
314 0.1% 0.6%  
315 0% 0.5%  
316 0% 0.5%  
317 0% 0.5%  
318 0.1% 0.5%  
319 0.1% 0.4%  
320 0.1% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0.1% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0.6% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.3%  
239 0% 99.3%  
240 0.3% 99.3%  
241 1.4% 99.0%  
242 0.1% 98%  
243 0% 98%  
244 0% 98%  
245 0% 97%  
246 0% 97%  
247 0.1% 97%  
248 0% 97%  
249 0.2% 97%  
250 1.0% 97%  
251 0% 96%  
252 0.3% 96%  
253 0.1% 96%  
254 1.2% 96%  
255 6% 95%  
256 0.2% 89%  
257 0.2% 89%  
258 2% 88%  
259 0.2% 86%  
260 2% 86%  
261 0.3% 85%  
262 0.1% 84%  
263 0.1% 84%  
264 2% 84%  
265 8% 82%  
266 2% 74%  
267 0.2% 72%  
268 0% 72%  
269 0% 72%  
270 0% 72%  
271 0.1% 72%  
272 0.2% 72%  
273 0.6% 72%  
274 0.1% 71%  
275 1.5% 71%  
276 0% 69%  
277 0% 69%  
278 0.2% 69%  
279 0% 69%  
280 0.2% 69%  
281 0% 69%  
282 0% 69%  
283 0% 69%  
284 0.9% 69%  
285 0.2% 68%  
286 0.1% 68%  
287 0.3% 68%  
288 23% 67%  
289 0% 45%  
290 0% 45% Median
291 33% 45%  
292 0% 12%  
293 0% 12%  
294 0.5% 12%  
295 0% 11%  
296 1.3% 11%  
297 0.1% 10% Last Result
298 0% 10%  
299 0% 10%  
300 0.1% 10%  
301 0% 10%  
302 9% 10%  
303 0% 0.9%  
304 0% 0.9%  
305 0.1% 0.9%  
306 0% 0.8%  
307 0% 0.8%  
308 0% 0.8%  
309 0% 0.8%  
310 0% 0.7%  
311 0% 0.7%  
312 0.1% 0.7%  
313 0% 0.6%  
314 0.1% 0.6%  
315 0% 0.5%  
316 0.1% 0.5%  
317 0% 0.4%  
318 0% 0.3%  
319 0.1% 0.3%  
320 0.1% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0.1% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
188 0% 100%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.8%  
195 0% 99.8%  
196 0% 99.8%  
197 0% 99.8%  
198 0% 99.7%  
199 0% 99.7%  
200 0.1% 99.7%  
201 0% 99.7%  
202 0% 99.7%  
203 0% 99.6%  
204 0% 99.6%  
205 0% 99.6%  
206 0% 99.6%  
207 0% 99.6%  
208 6% 99.5%  
209 0% 94%  
210 0% 94%  
211 0.1% 94%  
212 0% 94%  
213 0% 94%  
214 0% 94%  
215 3% 94%  
216 0% 91%  
217 0% 91%  
218 0% 91%  
219 0% 91%  
220 0% 90%  
221 0% 90%  
222 0% 90%  
223 0.1% 90%  
224 0% 90%  
225 0.1% 90%  
226 0% 90%  
227 0% 90%  
228 0% 90%  
229 23% 90%  
230 0.1% 67%  
231 0.2% 67%  
232 0% 67%  
233 0% 67%  
234 0% 67%  
235 35% 67% Median
236 0.2% 32%  
237 0% 32%  
238 0.3% 32%  
239 0.3% 32%  
240 0.3% 31%  
241 0.5% 31%  
242 0.1% 31%  
243 0% 31%  
244 0.3% 31%  
245 1.3% 30%  
246 0% 29%  
247 8% 29%  
248 2% 21%  
249 0.2% 19%  
250 0.2% 18%  
251 0.2% 18%  
252 0.1% 18%  
253 3% 18%  
254 0.1% 15%  
255 0.1% 15%  
256 0.1% 15%  
257 2% 15%  
258 0.5% 13%  
259 0.1% 13%  
260 6% 13%  
261 2% 7%  
262 0.1% 5%  
263 0% 5%  
264 1.0% 5%  
265 0.1% 4%  
266 0.1% 4%  
267 0% 4%  
268 0% 4%  
269 0% 4%  
270 0.2% 4%  
271 0.4% 4%  
272 0.2% 3%  
273 0% 3%  
274 2% 3%  
275 0.1% 1.4%  
276 0.2% 1.3%  
277 0.2% 1.1%  
278 0.6% 0.9%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.2%  
286 0.1% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.8%  
195 0% 99.8%  
196 0% 99.7%  
197 0% 99.7%  
198 0% 99.7%  
199 0% 99.7%  
200 0.1% 99.7%  
201 0% 99.6%  
202 0% 99.6%  
203 0% 99.6%  
204 0% 99.6%  
205 0% 99.6%  
206 6% 99.5%  
207 0% 94%  
208 0.1% 94%  
209 0% 94%  
210 0% 94%  
211 0.1% 94%  
212 3% 94%  
213 0% 91%  
214 0% 91%  
215 0% 91%  
216 0% 91%  
217 0% 91%  
218 0% 90%  
219 0% 90%  
220 0% 90%  
221 0.1% 90%  
222 0% 90%  
223 0% 90%  
224 0% 90%  
225 0.1% 90%  
226 0% 90%  
227 0.2% 90%  
228 0.1% 90%  
229 23% 90%  
230 0.1% 67%  
231 0% 67%  
232 0.8% 67%  
233 0% 66%  
234 33% 66% Median
235 1.0% 33%  
236 0.3% 32%  
237 0.4% 32%  
238 0.6% 31%  
239 0.1% 31%  
240 0.3% 31%  
241 0.1% 30%  
242 1.3% 30%  
243 0% 29%  
244 0% 29%  
245 0% 29%  
246 2% 29%  
247 8% 26%  
248 0.3% 19%  
249 0.4% 18%  
250 0.2% 18%  
251 1.5% 18%  
252 0.2% 16%  
253 1.3% 16%  
254 0.1% 15%  
255 0.7% 15%  
256 0% 14%  
257 2% 14%  
258 7% 12%  
259 0.1% 5%  
260 0.2% 5%  
261 0% 5%  
262 0.9% 5%  
263 0% 4%  
264 0.1% 4%  
265 0% 4%  
266 0% 4%  
267 0.1% 4%  
268 0.4% 4%  
269 0% 3%  
270 0.2% 3%  
271 0.2% 3%  
272 1.4% 3%  
273 0.2% 2%  
274 0.3% 1.4%  
275 0.6% 1.1%  
276 0.3% 0.5%  
277 0% 0.2%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.8%  
195 0% 99.8%  
196 0% 99.7%  
197 0% 99.7%  
198 0% 99.7%  
199 0% 99.7%  
200 0.1% 99.7%  
201 0% 99.6%  
202 0% 99.6%  
203 0% 99.6%  
204 0% 99.6%  
205 0% 99.6%  
206 6% 99.5%  
207 0% 94%  
208 0.1% 94%  
209 0% 94%  
210 0% 94%  
211 0.1% 94%  
212 3% 94%  
213 0% 91%  
214 0% 91%  
215 0% 91%  
216 0% 91%  
217 0% 91%  
218 0% 90%  
219 0% 90%  
220 0% 90%  
221 0.1% 90%  
222 0% 90%  
223 0% 90%  
224 0% 90%  
225 0.1% 90%  
226 0% 90%  
227 0.2% 90%  
228 0.1% 90%  
229 23% 90%  
230 0.1% 67%  
231 0% 67%  
232 0.8% 67%  
233 0% 66%  
234 33% 66% Median
235 1.0% 33%  
236 0.3% 32%  
237 0.4% 32%  
238 0.6% 31%  
239 0.1% 31%  
240 0.3% 31%  
241 0.1% 30%  
242 1.3% 30%  
243 0% 29%  
244 0% 29%  
245 0% 29%  
246 2% 29%  
247 8% 26%  
248 0.3% 19%  
249 0.4% 18%  
250 0.2% 18%  
251 1.5% 18%  
252 0.2% 16%  
253 1.3% 16%  
254 0.1% 15%  
255 0.7% 15%  
256 0% 14%  
257 2% 14%  
258 7% 12%  
259 0.1% 5%  
260 0.2% 5%  
261 0% 5%  
262 0.9% 5%  
263 0% 4%  
264 0.1% 4%  
265 0% 4%  
266 0% 4%  
267 0.1% 4%  
268 0.4% 4%  
269 0% 3%  
270 0.2% 3%  
271 0.2% 3%  
272 1.4% 3%  
273 0.2% 2%  
274 0.3% 1.4%  
275 0.6% 1.1%  
276 0.3% 0.5%  
277 0% 0.2%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
180 0% 100%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0.8% 99.8%  
190 0% 99.0%  
191 0% 99.0%  
192 1.4% 99.0%  
193 0% 98%  
194 0% 98%  
195 0.1% 98%  
196 0% 97%  
197 0% 97%  
198 0.7% 97%  
199 0% 97%  
200 0% 97%  
201 0% 97%  
202 0% 97%  
203 1.2% 97%  
204 0.7% 95%  
205 0.1% 95%  
206 6% 95%  
207 2% 89%  
208 0.6% 87%  
209 0.3% 86%  
210 0.1% 86%  
211 0.3% 86%  
212 8% 86%  
213 4% 78%  
214 0.2% 74%  
215 0.2% 74%  
216 2% 74%  
217 0.1% 72%  
218 0% 72%  
219 0% 72%  
220 0.1% 72%  
221 0.1% 72%  
222 0.3% 72%  
223 0.2% 72%  
224 0.4% 71%  
225 1.4% 71%  
226 0% 70%  
227 0% 70%  
228 0.1% 70%  
229 0% 69%  
230 0% 69%  
231 0.5% 69%  
232 0% 69%  
233 0.1% 69%  
234 1.0% 69%  
235 0% 68%  
236 0% 68%  
237 23% 68%  
238 0.3% 45% Median
239 33% 45%  
240 0% 12%  
241 0% 12%  
242 0.1% 12%  
243 0.2% 12%  
244 1.0% 11%  
245 0.3% 11%  
246 0.1% 10%  
247 0.2% 10%  
248 0% 10%  
249 0% 10%  
250 0.1% 10%  
251 0.1% 10%  
252 0% 10%  
253 6% 10%  
254 3% 4%  
255 0.1% 0.9%  
256 0% 0.8%  
257 0% 0.8%  
258 0% 0.8%  
259 0.1% 0.7%  
260 0% 0.6%  
261 0% 0.6%  
262 0% 0.6%  
263 0.1% 0.6%  
264 0% 0.5%  
265 0% 0.5%  
266 0% 0.5% Last Result
267 0.2% 0.5%  
268 0.1% 0.3%  
269 0% 0.2%  
270 0.1% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0.1% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0.6% 99.9%  
187 0% 99.3%  
188 0% 99.3%  
189 0.3% 99.3%  
190 1.4% 99.0%  
191 0% 98%  
192 0% 98%  
193 0.1% 98%  
194 0% 97%  
195 0.1% 97%  
196 0.7% 97%  
197 0% 97%  
198 0% 97%  
199 0% 97%  
200 0.2% 97%  
201 0.4% 96%  
202 0.2% 96%  
203 1.4% 96%  
204 6% 94%  
205 0.7% 89%  
206 0.3% 88%  
207 2% 88%  
208 0% 86%  
209 0% 86%  
210 0.1% 86%  
211 4% 86%  
212 8% 82%  
213 2% 74%  
214 0.1% 72%  
215 0% 72%  
216 0% 72%  
217 0.1% 72%  
218 0.1% 72%  
219 0% 72%  
220 0.1% 72%  
221 0.5% 72%  
222 2% 71%  
223 0% 70%  
224 0.1% 70%  
225 0% 69%  
226 0% 69%  
227 0.3% 69%  
228 0% 69%  
229 0.2% 69%  
230 0% 69%  
231 0.9% 69%  
232 0.1% 68%  
233 0.2% 68%  
234 0.2% 68%  
235 0% 68%  
236 0.1% 68%  
237 23% 67% Median
238 33% 45%  
239 0% 12%  
240 0% 12%  
241 0.3% 12%  
242 0.1% 11%  
243 0.5% 11%  
244 1.0% 11%  
245 0% 10%  
246 0% 10%  
247 0.1% 10%  
248 0% 10%  
249 0% 10%  
250 0% 10%  
251 9% 10%  
252 0% 0.9%  
253 0% 0.9%  
254 0.1% 0.9%  
255 0% 0.8%  
256 0% 0.8%  
257 0% 0.8%  
258 0% 0.8%  
259 0.1% 0.7%  
260 0% 0.6%  
261 0% 0.6%  
262 0% 0.6% Last Result
263 0.1% 0.6%  
264 0% 0.5%  
265 0.1% 0.5%  
266 0% 0.4%  
267 0.1% 0.4%  
268 0.1% 0.3%  
269 0% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0.1% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0.6% 99.9%  
187 0% 99.3%  
188 0% 99.3%  
189 0.3% 99.3%  
190 1.4% 99.0%  
191 0% 98%  
192 0% 98%  
193 0.1% 98%  
194 0% 97%  
195 0.1% 97%  
196 0.7% 97%  
197 0% 97%  
198 0% 97%  
199 0% 97%  
200 0.2% 97%  
201 0.4% 96%  
202 0.2% 96%  
203 1.4% 96%  
204 6% 94%  
205 0.7% 89%  
206 0.3% 88%  
207 2% 88%  
208 0% 86%  
209 0% 86%  
210 0.1% 86%  
211 4% 86%  
212 8% 82%  
213 2% 74%  
214 0.1% 72%  
215 0% 72%  
216 0% 72%  
217 0.1% 72%  
218 0.1% 72%  
219 0% 72%  
220 0.1% 72%  
221 0.5% 72%  
222 2% 71%  
223 0% 70%  
224 0.1% 70%  
225 0% 69%  
226 0% 69%  
227 0.3% 69%  
228 0% 69%  
229 0.2% 69%  
230 0% 69%  
231 0.9% 69%  
232 0.1% 68%  
233 0.2% 68%  
234 0.2% 68%  
235 0% 68%  
236 0.1% 68%  
237 23% 67% Median
238 33% 45%  
239 0% 12%  
240 0% 12%  
241 0.3% 12%  
242 0.1% 11%  
243 0.5% 11%  
244 1.0% 11%  
245 0% 10%  
246 0% 10%  
247 0.1% 10%  
248 0% 10%  
249 0% 10%  
250 0% 10%  
251 9% 10%  
252 0% 0.9%  
253 0% 0.9%  
254 0.1% 0.9%  
255 0% 0.8%  
256 0% 0.8%  
257 0% 0.8%  
258 0% 0.8%  
259 0.1% 0.7%  
260 0% 0.6%  
261 0% 0.6%  
262 0% 0.6% Last Result
263 0.1% 0.6%  
264 0% 0.5%  
265 0.1% 0.5%  
266 0% 0.4%  
267 0.1% 0.4%  
268 0.1% 0.3%  
269 0% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0.1% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations