Opinion Poll by Opinium for The Observer, 25–27 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 35.8% 34.5–37.2% 34.1–37.6% 33.7–38.0% 33.1–38.6%
Labour Party 40.0% 23.9% 22.7–25.1% 22.3–25.5% 22.0–25.8% 21.5–26.4%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 19.9% 18.8–21.1% 18.5–21.4% 18.2–21.7% 17.7–22.3%
Brexit Party 0.0% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.4%
Green Party 1.6% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–3.0%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 328 321–341 313–341 309–344 302–351
Labour Party 262 159 151–167 151–181 149–188 131–190
Liberal Democrats 12 61 59–66 59–68 59–72 55–75
Brexit Party 0 18 13–24 12–24 10–27 10–33
Scottish National Party 35 54 53–54 51–54 51–54 50–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 7 4–8 4–10 4–11 4–12
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.2% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.7%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0% 99.6%  
300 0% 99.5%  
301 0% 99.5%  
302 0% 99.5%  
303 0.1% 99.5%  
304 0.5% 99.4%  
305 1.1% 98.9%  
306 0% 98%  
307 0% 98%  
308 0% 98%  
309 1.0% 98%  
310 0.1% 97%  
311 0.1% 97%  
312 1.3% 96%  
313 0.2% 95%  
314 0.4% 95%  
315 0.1% 94%  
316 0% 94%  
317 1.2% 94% Last Result
318 1.0% 93%  
319 0.7% 92%  
320 1.3% 91%  
321 0.2% 90%  
322 2% 90%  
323 15% 88%  
324 1.2% 73%  
325 7% 72%  
326 0.8% 65% Majority
327 0.9% 64%  
328 16% 63% Median
329 0.2% 47%  
330 2% 47%  
331 0.1% 44%  
332 1.2% 44%  
333 0.9% 43%  
334 1.1% 42%  
335 0.9% 41%  
336 9% 40%  
337 0.1% 31%  
338 0.2% 31%  
339 14% 31%  
340 2% 17%  
341 10% 15%  
342 0.1% 5%  
343 0% 5%  
344 3% 5%  
345 0% 2%  
346 0.6% 2%  
347 0.1% 0.9%  
348 0% 0.8%  
349 0% 0.8%  
350 0.3% 0.8%  
351 0% 0.5%  
352 0% 0.5%  
353 0% 0.5%  
354 0% 0.5%  
355 0% 0.4%  
356 0.2% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0.1% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.8%  
125 0% 99.8%  
126 0% 99.8%  
127 0% 99.7%  
128 0% 99.7%  
129 0% 99.7%  
130 0.1% 99.7%  
131 0.5% 99.6%  
132 0.1% 99.2%  
133 0% 99.1%  
134 0.2% 99.1%  
135 0% 98.9%  
136 0.3% 98.9%  
137 0% 98.6%  
138 0% 98.6%  
139 0.1% 98.5%  
140 0% 98%  
141 0% 98%  
142 0.1% 98%  
143 0% 98%  
144 0% 98%  
145 0% 98%  
146 0% 98%  
147 0.2% 98%  
148 0% 98%  
149 2% 98%  
150 0.3% 96%  
151 14% 95%  
152 1.5% 81%  
153 0.2% 80%  
154 4% 80%  
155 9% 76%  
156 0.5% 67%  
157 10% 66%  
158 0.8% 56%  
159 8% 55% Median
160 2% 47%  
161 2% 46%  
162 0.8% 43%  
163 2% 42%  
164 0.3% 40%  
165 26% 40%  
166 0.5% 13%  
167 4% 13%  
168 0.1% 9%  
169 0.2% 9%  
170 0.6% 9%  
171 0.6% 8%  
172 0.2% 7%  
173 0% 7%  
174 1.4% 7%  
175 0.1% 6%  
176 0.1% 6%  
177 0.4% 6%  
178 0.1% 5%  
179 0% 5%  
180 0% 5%  
181 0.1% 5%  
182 0.7% 5%  
183 0.1% 4%  
184 0.1% 4%  
185 0% 4%  
186 1.2% 4%  
187 0% 3%  
188 1.2% 3%  
189 0.9% 2%  
190 0.4% 0.7%  
191 0.1% 0.3%  
192 0% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.2%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.7%  
55 0.2% 99.7%  
56 0.4% 99.4%  
57 0.3% 99.1%  
58 0.6% 98.8%  
59 26% 98%  
60 4% 72%  
61 22% 68% Median
62 3% 46%  
63 5% 43%  
64 2% 38%  
65 17% 36%  
66 12% 20%  
67 1.3% 8%  
68 2% 6%  
69 0.3% 4%  
70 0.1% 4%  
71 1.0% 4%  
72 0.7% 3%  
73 1.3% 2%  
74 0.3% 1.0%  
75 0.6% 0.7%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.2% 100%  
7 0.1% 99.8%  
8 0.1% 99.7%  
9 0.1% 99.6%  
10 2% 99.6%  
11 0% 97%  
12 3% 97%  
13 20% 95%  
14 2% 75%  
15 2% 73%  
16 5% 70%  
17 5% 66%  
18 27% 61% Median
19 18% 34%  
20 3% 16%  
21 0.4% 12%  
22 0.8% 12%  
23 0.1% 11%  
24 7% 11%  
25 0.6% 4%  
26 1.1% 4%  
27 0.7% 3%  
28 0% 2%  
29 0.5% 2%  
30 0.2% 1.4%  
31 0.3% 1.2%  
32 0.4% 0.9%  
33 0.1% 0.5%  
34 0.2% 0.5%  
35 0% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 1.3% 99.6%  
51 3% 98%  
52 2% 95%  
53 21% 93%  
54 72% 72% Median
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 13% 100% Last Result
5 3% 87%  
6 0.8% 84%  
7 70% 83% Median
8 6% 13%  
9 1.5% 7%  
10 2% 6%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.8% 0.9%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 390 100% 386–402 376–404 374–405 367–416
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 390 100% 386–402 376–404 374–405 367–416
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 389 100% 380–402 375–402 366–402 361–415
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 382 100% 374–395 367–395 362–395 355–405
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 349 96% 338–358 332–361 322–361 318–374
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 335 92% 327–348 321–348 313–348 308–361
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 328 65% 321–341 313–341 309–344 302–351
Conservative Party 317 328 65% 321–341 313–341 309–344 302–351
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 282 0.1% 273–293 270–299 270–309 257–313
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 275 0% 266–284 266–295 265–305 248–307
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 229 0% 219–241 219–245 217–256 204–259
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 221 0% 212–231 212–241 212–252 194–255
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 221 0% 212–231 212–241 212–252 194–255
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 220 0% 212–229 209–240 208–245 194–250
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 213 0% 205–221 205–234 203–241 185–244
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 166 0% 158–175 157–186 154–192 141–196
Labour Party – Change UK 262 159 0% 151–167 151–181 149–188 131–190
Labour Party 262 159 0% 151–167 151–181 149–188 131–190

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.7%  
366 0% 99.6%  
367 0.4% 99.6%  
368 0.1% 99.2%  
369 0.2% 99.1%  
370 0.2% 99.0%  
371 1.0% 98.8%  
372 0% 98%  
373 0.2% 98%  
374 1.0% 98%  
375 0% 97%  
376 2% 97%  
377 0% 95%  
378 0.1% 95%  
379 0.1% 95%  
380 0.6% 94%  
381 0.8% 94%  
382 0.2% 93%  
383 0% 93%  
384 0.4% 93%  
385 2% 92%  
386 4% 90%  
387 16% 86%  
388 18% 70%  
389 2% 52% Median
390 1.5% 50%  
391 0.9% 49%  
392 1.3% 48%  
393 2% 47%  
394 0.8% 45%  
395 1.0% 44%  
396 0.1% 43%  
397 1.4% 43%  
398 0.1% 42%  
399 0.6% 42%  
400 24% 41%  
401 0.6% 17%  
402 9% 17%  
403 2% 7%  
404 0.1% 5%  
405 4% 5%  
406 0% 1.2%  
407 0.1% 1.2%  
408 0.1% 1.1%  
409 0.4% 1.0%  
410 0.1% 0.7%  
411 0% 0.6%  
412 0% 0.6%  
413 0% 0.6%  
414 0% 0.5%  
415 0% 0.5%  
416 0% 0.5%  
417 0.2% 0.5%  
418 0% 0.3%  
419 0.1% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.7%  
366 0% 99.6%  
367 0.4% 99.6%  
368 0.1% 99.2%  
369 0.2% 99.1%  
370 0.2% 99.0%  
371 1.0% 98.8%  
372 0% 98%  
373 0.2% 98%  
374 1.0% 98%  
375 0% 97%  
376 2% 97%  
377 0% 95%  
378 0.1% 95%  
379 0.1% 95%  
380 0.6% 94%  
381 0.8% 94%  
382 0.2% 93%  
383 0% 93%  
384 0.4% 93%  
385 2% 92%  
386 4% 90%  
387 16% 86%  
388 18% 70%  
389 2% 52% Median
390 1.5% 50%  
391 0.9% 49%  
392 1.3% 48%  
393 2% 47%  
394 0.8% 45%  
395 1.0% 44%  
396 0.1% 43%  
397 1.4% 43%  
398 0.1% 42%  
399 0.6% 42%  
400 24% 41%  
401 0.6% 17%  
402 9% 17%  
403 2% 7%  
404 0.1% 5%  
405 4% 5%  
406 0% 1.2%  
407 0.1% 1.2%  
408 0.1% 1.1%  
409 0.4% 1.0%  
410 0.1% 0.7%  
411 0% 0.6%  
412 0% 0.6%  
413 0% 0.6%  
414 0% 0.5%  
415 0% 0.5%  
416 0% 0.5%  
417 0.2% 0.5%  
418 0% 0.3%  
419 0.1% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
353 0.1% 100%  
354 0% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.8%  
356 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
357 0% 99.6%  
358 0% 99.6%  
359 0% 99.5%  
360 0% 99.5%  
361 1.0% 99.5%  
362 0.1% 98.5%  
363 0.1% 98%  
364 0.4% 98%  
365 0.1% 98%  
366 1.0% 98%  
367 0.1% 97%  
368 0.1% 97%  
369 1.3% 97%  
370 0% 95%  
371 0.2% 95%  
372 0% 95%  
373 0% 95%  
374 0% 95%  
375 1.5% 95%  
376 0.3% 94%  
377 0.7% 93%  
378 0.4% 93%  
379 2% 92%  
380 0.8% 91%  
381 2% 90%  
382 0.3% 88%  
383 16% 88%  
384 0.1% 72%  
385 0.9% 72%  
386 0.1% 71%  
387 5% 71%  
388 4% 65%  
389 16% 62% Median
390 0.3% 46%  
391 0.3% 45%  
392 0.4% 45%  
393 0.6% 45%  
394 0.5% 44%  
395 2% 44%  
396 1.0% 41%  
397 9% 40%  
398 0.2% 31%  
399 5% 31%  
400 14% 25%  
401 0.2% 12%  
402 10% 11%  
403 0.1% 2%  
404 0.3% 2%  
405 0.1% 1.4%  
406 0% 1.3%  
407 0% 1.3%  
408 0.2% 1.3%  
409 0% 1.1%  
410 0% 1.1%  
411 0% 1.0%  
412 0.4% 1.0%  
413 0.1% 0.6%  
414 0% 0.6%  
415 0.1% 0.5%  
416 0% 0.4%  
417 0% 0.4%  
418 0% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0.2% 0.3%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.7%  
351 0% 99.7%  
352 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
353 0% 99.5%  
354 0% 99.5%  
355 0% 99.5%  
356 0% 99.5%  
357 1.1% 99.5%  
358 0.4% 98%  
359 0.2% 98%  
360 0% 98%  
361 0% 98%  
362 1.0% 98%  
363 0.1% 97%  
364 0.1% 97%  
365 1.4% 97%  
366 0.1% 95%  
367 0.2% 95%  
368 0.4% 95%  
369 0.1% 94%  
370 0.1% 94%  
371 2% 94%  
372 0.7% 93%  
373 0.9% 92%  
374 1.1% 91%  
375 2% 90%  
376 15% 88%  
377 0.8% 73%  
378 3% 72%  
379 5% 69%  
380 1.4% 64%  
381 1.3% 63%  
382 16% 61% Median
383 0.2% 46%  
384 1.1% 45%  
385 0.1% 44%  
386 1.2% 44%  
387 0.9% 43%  
388 1.0% 42%  
389 1.0% 41%  
390 9% 40%  
391 0.1% 31%  
392 0.1% 31%  
393 14% 31%  
394 2% 17%  
395 13% 15%  
396 0.1% 2%  
397 0% 2%  
398 0.1% 2%  
399 0% 2%  
400 0.7% 2%  
401 0.1% 0.9%  
402 0% 0.8%  
403 0% 0.8%  
404 0.3% 0.8%  
405 0.1% 0.5%  
406 0% 0.4%  
407 0% 0.4%  
408 0% 0.4%  
409 0% 0.4%  
410 0.2% 0.4%  
411 0% 0.2%  
412 0.1% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.8%  
314 0% 99.8%  
315 0% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0% 99.7% Last Result
318 0.4% 99.7%  
319 0.1% 99.2%  
320 1.0% 99.1%  
321 0% 98%  
322 1.3% 98%  
323 1.0% 97%  
324 0% 96%  
325 0.1% 96%  
326 0% 96% Majority
327 0.1% 96%  
328 0% 96%  
329 0.1% 96%  
330 0.1% 95%  
331 0.1% 95%  
332 1.0% 95%  
333 0.5% 94%  
334 2% 94%  
335 0.1% 92%  
336 1.1% 92%  
337 0.4% 91%  
338 1.0% 90%  
339 0.1% 89%  
340 0.2% 89%  
341 18% 89%  
342 1.3% 71%  
343 2% 69%  
344 2% 67%  
345 1.3% 65%  
346 10% 63% Median
347 0.2% 53%  
348 1.5% 53%  
349 11% 51%  
350 0.1% 41%  
351 1.1% 41%  
352 7% 40%  
353 0.5% 33%  
354 10% 32%  
355 0.6% 22%  
356 0.2% 22%  
357 0.1% 22%  
358 14% 22%  
359 0.2% 8%  
360 2% 8%  
361 3% 5%  
362 0.3% 2%  
363 0.1% 2%  
364 0% 2%  
365 0.1% 2%  
366 0.1% 2%  
367 0.5% 2%  
368 0% 1.1%  
369 0% 1.1%  
370 0% 1.1%  
371 0.4% 1.1%  
372 0.2% 0.7%  
373 0% 0.5%  
374 0.1% 0.5%  
375 0% 0.4%  
376 0% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.3%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0.1% 100%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.2% 99.8%  
303 0% 99.6%  
304 0% 99.6%  
305 0% 99.6%  
306 0% 99.5%  
307 0% 99.5%  
308 0.2% 99.5%  
309 1.0% 99.4%  
310 0.4% 98%  
311 0% 98%  
312 0.1% 98%  
313 1.1% 98%  
314 0.1% 97%  
315 0.1% 97%  
316 1.3% 97%  
317 0.2% 95%  
318 0% 95%  
319 0% 95%  
320 0% 95%  
321 1.2% 95% Last Result
322 0.6% 94%  
323 0.5% 93%  
324 0.6% 93%  
325 0% 92%  
326 2% 92% Majority
327 2% 91%  
328 0.8% 89%  
329 2% 88%  
330 15% 86%  
331 0.3% 72%  
332 0.2% 71%  
333 5% 71%  
334 2% 67%  
335 18% 65% Median
336 0.3% 47%  
337 1.4% 47%  
338 0.4% 45%  
339 0.5% 45%  
340 0.4% 44%  
341 3% 44%  
342 1.0% 41%  
343 9% 40%  
344 0.2% 31%  
345 2% 31%  
346 14% 29%  
347 0.2% 15%  
348 13% 15%  
349 0.2% 2%  
350 0.3% 2%  
351 0.1% 1.4%  
352 0% 1.3%  
353 0% 1.3%  
354 0.2% 1.3%  
355 0% 1.1%  
356 0% 1.1%  
357 0% 1.0%  
358 0.4% 1.0%  
359 0% 0.6%  
360 0% 0.6%  
361 0.1% 0.6%  
362 0% 0.4%  
363 0% 0.4%  
364 0% 0.4%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0.2% 0.3%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.2% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.7%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0% 99.6%  
300 0% 99.5%  
301 0% 99.5%  
302 0% 99.5%  
303 0.1% 99.5%  
304 0.5% 99.4%  
305 1.1% 98.9%  
306 0% 98%  
307 0% 98%  
308 0% 98%  
309 1.0% 98%  
310 0.1% 97%  
311 0.1% 97%  
312 1.3% 96%  
313 0.2% 95%  
314 0.4% 95%  
315 0.1% 94%  
316 0% 94%  
317 1.2% 94% Last Result
318 1.0% 93%  
319 0.7% 92%  
320 1.3% 91%  
321 0.2% 90%  
322 2% 90%  
323 15% 88%  
324 1.2% 73%  
325 7% 72%  
326 0.8% 65% Majority
327 0.9% 64%  
328 16% 63% Median
329 0.2% 47%  
330 2% 47%  
331 0.1% 44%  
332 1.2% 44%  
333 0.9% 43%  
334 1.1% 42%  
335 0.9% 41%  
336 9% 40%  
337 0.1% 31%  
338 0.2% 31%  
339 14% 31%  
340 2% 17%  
341 10% 15%  
342 0.1% 5%  
343 0% 5%  
344 3% 5%  
345 0% 2%  
346 0.6% 2%  
347 0.1% 0.9%  
348 0% 0.8%  
349 0% 0.8%  
350 0.3% 0.8%  
351 0% 0.5%  
352 0% 0.5%  
353 0% 0.5%  
354 0% 0.5%  
355 0% 0.4%  
356 0.2% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0.1% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.2% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.7%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0% 99.6%  
300 0% 99.5%  
301 0% 99.5%  
302 0% 99.5%  
303 0.1% 99.5%  
304 0.5% 99.4%  
305 1.1% 98.9%  
306 0% 98%  
307 0% 98%  
308 0% 98%  
309 1.0% 98%  
310 0.1% 97%  
311 0.1% 97%  
312 1.3% 96%  
313 0.2% 95%  
314 0.4% 95%  
315 0.1% 94%  
316 0% 94%  
317 1.2% 94% Last Result
318 1.0% 93%  
319 0.7% 92%  
320 1.3% 91%  
321 0.2% 90%  
322 2% 90%  
323 15% 88%  
324 1.2% 73%  
325 7% 72%  
326 0.8% 65% Majority
327 0.9% 64%  
328 16% 63% Median
329 0.2% 47%  
330 2% 47%  
331 0.1% 44%  
332 1.2% 44%  
333 0.9% 43%  
334 1.1% 42%  
335 0.9% 41%  
336 9% 40%  
337 0.1% 31%  
338 0.2% 31%  
339 14% 31%  
340 2% 17%  
341 10% 15%  
342 0.1% 5%  
343 0% 5%  
344 3% 5%  
345 0% 2%  
346 0.6% 2%  
347 0.1% 0.9%  
348 0% 0.8%  
349 0% 0.8%  
350 0.3% 0.8%  
351 0% 0.5%  
352 0% 0.5%  
353 0% 0.5%  
354 0% 0.5%  
355 0% 0.4%  
356 0.2% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0.1% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0% 99.8%  
253 0% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0% 99.6%  
256 0% 99.6%  
257 0.1% 99.6%  
258 0% 99.5%  
259 0.2% 99.5%  
260 0.4% 99.3%  
261 0% 98.9%  
262 0% 98.9%  
263 0% 98.9%  
264 0.5% 98.9%  
265 0.1% 98%  
266 0.1% 98%  
267 0% 98%  
268 0.1% 98%  
269 0.3% 98%  
270 3% 98%  
271 2% 95%  
272 0.2% 92%  
273 14% 92%  
274 0.1% 78%  
275 0.2% 78%  
276 0.6% 78%  
277 10% 78%  
278 0.5% 68%  
279 7% 67%  
280 1.1% 60%  
281 0.1% 59% Median
282 11% 59%  
283 1.5% 49%  
284 0.2% 47%  
285 10% 47%  
286 1.3% 37%  
287 2% 35%  
288 2% 33%  
289 1.3% 31%  
290 18% 29%  
291 0.2% 11%  
292 0.1% 11%  
293 1.0% 11%  
294 0.4% 10%  
295 1.1% 9%  
296 0.1% 8%  
297 2% 8%  
298 0.5% 6%  
299 1.0% 6%  
300 0.1% 5%  
301 0.1% 5%  
302 0.1% 5%  
303 0% 4%  
304 0.1% 4%  
305 0% 4%  
306 0.1% 4%  
307 0% 4%  
308 1.0% 4%  
309 1.3% 3%  
310 0% 2%  
311 1.0% 2%  
312 0.1% 0.9%  
313 0.4% 0.8% Last Result
314 0% 0.3%  
315 0.1% 0.3%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0.1% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.8%  
244 0% 99.7%  
245 0% 99.7%  
246 0% 99.7%  
247 0% 99.7%  
248 0.4% 99.6%  
249 0.2% 99.3%  
250 0.1% 99.1%  
251 0% 99.0%  
252 0% 98.9%  
253 0% 98.9%  
254 0.1% 98.9%  
255 0% 98.8%  
256 0% 98.8%  
257 0.1% 98.8%  
258 0% 98.7%  
259 0% 98.7%  
260 0.6% 98.6%  
261 0.3% 98%  
262 0% 98%  
263 0.2% 98%  
264 0.1% 98%  
265 0% 98%  
266 19% 97%  
267 0.2% 78%  
268 0.3% 78%  
269 0.5% 78%  
270 10% 78%  
271 0.5% 68%  
272 7% 67%  
273 1.3% 61%  
274 0.6% 59% Median
275 11% 59%  
276 0.7% 47%  
277 0.2% 47%  
278 12% 46%  
279 2% 34%  
280 0.2% 33%  
281 0% 33%  
282 5% 33%  
283 17% 28%  
284 1.0% 11%  
285 0.3% 10%  
286 0.8% 10%  
287 0.3% 9%  
288 0.1% 9%  
289 0.3% 9%  
290 0.5% 8%  
291 0.8% 8%  
292 0.1% 7%  
293 2% 7%  
294 0.1% 5%  
295 0.8% 5%  
296 0% 5%  
297 0.2% 5%  
298 0.2% 4%  
299 0% 4%  
300 0% 4%  
301 0% 4%  
302 0% 4%  
303 0% 4%  
304 1.0% 4%  
305 1.2% 3%  
306 0% 2%  
307 1.3% 2%  
308 0.1% 0.5%  
309 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
310 0% 0.3%  
311 0.2% 0.3%  
312 0% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0.1% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.8%  
197 0% 99.8%  
198 0% 99.8%  
199 0.1% 99.8%  
200 0.1% 99.7%  
201 0% 99.7%  
202 0% 99.7%  
203 0.1% 99.6%  
204 0% 99.5%  
205 0.2% 99.5%  
206 0.4% 99.3%  
207 0% 98.9%  
208 0% 98.9%  
209 0% 98.9%  
210 0.5% 98.9%  
211 0% 98%  
212 0.1% 98%  
213 0.1% 98%  
214 0.1% 98%  
215 0.3% 98%  
216 0.1% 98%  
217 2% 98%  
218 0.2% 96%  
219 17% 95%  
220 0.1% 79%  
221 0.2% 78%  
222 0.2% 78%  
223 10% 78%  
224 0.5% 68%  
225 7% 67%  
226 1.1% 60%  
227 0% 59% Median
228 9% 59%  
229 2% 50%  
230 0.2% 48%  
231 10% 48%  
232 2% 38%  
233 2% 35%  
234 0.6% 34%  
235 4% 33%  
236 4% 29%  
237 15% 25%  
238 0.1% 11%  
239 0.5% 11%  
240 0.1% 10%  
241 2% 10%  
242 0.1% 8%  
243 0.4% 8%  
244 2% 8%  
245 1.1% 6%  
246 0.2% 5%  
247 0.1% 5%  
248 0.1% 5%  
249 0% 4%  
250 0.1% 4%  
251 0% 4%  
252 0% 4%  
253 0.1% 4%  
254 0% 4%  
255 1.1% 4%  
256 1.3% 3%  
257 0% 2%  
258 0% 2%  
259 1.4% 2%  
260 0% 0.4%  
261 0.1% 0.4%  
262 0% 0.2%  
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.2%  
266 0% 0.2%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0.1% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.8%  
187 0% 99.8%  
188 0% 99.8%  
189 0.1% 99.8%  
190 0% 99.7%  
191 0% 99.7%  
192 0% 99.7%  
193 0% 99.7%  
194 0.4% 99.6%  
195 0.2% 99.3%  
196 0.1% 99.1%  
197 0% 99.0%  
198 0% 98.9%  
199 0% 98.9%  
200 0.1% 98.9%  
201 0% 98.8%  
202 0% 98.8%  
203 0.1% 98.8%  
204 0% 98.7%  
205 0.1% 98.7%  
206 0.5% 98.7%  
207 0.3% 98%  
208 0% 98%  
209 0.1% 98%  
210 0.2% 98%  
211 0% 98%  
212 16% 98%  
213 0% 82%  
214 0.3% 82%  
215 3% 81%  
216 10% 78%  
217 0.5% 68%  
218 7% 67%  
219 1.4% 61%  
220 0.6% 59% Median
221 10% 59%  
222 0.6% 49%  
223 0.2% 48%  
224 10% 48%  
225 5% 38%  
226 0.2% 33%  
227 0% 33%  
228 5% 33%  
229 2% 28%  
230 15% 26%  
231 0.9% 11%  
232 0.3% 10%  
233 0.3% 10%  
234 0.7% 9%  
235 0.2% 9%  
236 0.3% 8%  
237 1.0% 8%  
238 0.1% 7%  
239 0.1% 7%  
240 1.5% 7%  
241 0.8% 5%  
242 0% 5%  
243 0.2% 5%  
244 0.1% 4%  
245 0.1% 4%  
246 0% 4%  
247 0% 4%  
248 0% 4%  
249 0.1% 4%  
250 0% 4%  
251 1.0% 4%  
252 1.2% 3%  
253 0.4% 2%  
254 0% 1.4%  
255 1.1% 1.4%  
256 0% 0.3%  
257 0.2% 0.3%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.8%  
187 0% 99.8%  
188 0% 99.8%  
189 0.1% 99.8%  
190 0% 99.7%  
191 0% 99.7%  
192 0% 99.7%  
193 0% 99.7%  
194 0.4% 99.6%  
195 0.2% 99.3%  
196 0.1% 99.1%  
197 0% 99.0%  
198 0% 98.9%  
199 0% 98.9%  
200 0.1% 98.9%  
201 0% 98.8%  
202 0% 98.8%  
203 0.1% 98.8%  
204 0% 98.7%  
205 0.1% 98.7%  
206 0.5% 98.7%  
207 0.3% 98%  
208 0% 98%  
209 0.1% 98%  
210 0.2% 98%  
211 0% 98%  
212 16% 98%  
213 0% 82%  
214 0.3% 82%  
215 3% 81%  
216 10% 78%  
217 0.5% 68%  
218 7% 67%  
219 1.4% 61%  
220 0.6% 59% Median
221 10% 59%  
222 0.6% 49%  
223 0.2% 48%  
224 10% 48%  
225 5% 38%  
226 0.2% 33%  
227 0% 33%  
228 5% 33%  
229 2% 28%  
230 15% 26%  
231 0.9% 11%  
232 0.3% 10%  
233 0.3% 10%  
234 0.7% 9%  
235 0.2% 9%  
236 0.3% 8%  
237 1.0% 8%  
238 0.1% 7%  
239 0.1% 7%  
240 1.5% 7%  
241 0.8% 5%  
242 0% 5%  
243 0.2% 5%  
244 0.1% 4%  
245 0.1% 4%  
246 0% 4%  
247 0% 4%  
248 0% 4%  
249 0.1% 4%  
250 0% 4%  
251 1.0% 4%  
252 1.2% 3%  
253 0.4% 2%  
254 0% 1.4%  
255 1.1% 1.4%  
256 0% 0.3%  
257 0.2% 0.3%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
180 0% 100%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.8%  
186 0% 99.8%  
187 0% 99.8%  
188 0% 99.8%  
189 0% 99.8%  
190 0.1% 99.7%  
191 0% 99.7%  
192 0.1% 99.7%  
193 0% 99.6%  
194 0.1% 99.5%  
195 0% 99.5%  
196 0% 99.5%  
197 0.4% 99.4%  
198 0.5% 99.0%  
199 0% 98.6%  
200 0% 98.5%  
201 0.1% 98.5%  
202 0% 98%  
203 0% 98%  
204 0% 98%  
205 0.1% 98%  
206 0% 98%  
207 0.3% 98%  
208 2% 98%  
209 4% 96%  
210 0.1% 92%  
211 0% 92%  
212 15% 92%  
213 0.8% 77%  
214 0.7% 76%  
215 0% 76%  
216 10% 76%  
217 0.5% 66%  
218 10% 66%  
219 1.3% 56%  
220 9% 54% Median
221 2% 46%  
222 0.9% 44%  
223 0.5% 43%  
224 2% 42%  
225 15% 40%  
226 9% 25%  
227 0.4% 16%  
228 2% 16%  
229 4% 13%  
230 1.4% 10%  
231 2% 8%  
232 0.2% 6%  
233 0% 6%  
234 0.5% 6%  
235 0.4% 6%  
236 0.1% 5%  
237 0.1% 5%  
238 0% 5%  
239 0% 5%  
240 0.8% 5%  
241 0.1% 4%  
242 0.1% 4%  
243 1.1% 4%  
244 0.2% 3%  
245 2% 3%  
246 0% 0.7%  
247 0% 0.7%  
248 0% 0.7%  
249 0% 0.7%  
250 0.4% 0.6%  
251 0% 0.2%  
252 0% 0.2%  
253 0.1% 0.2%  
254 0% 0.2%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
173 0% 100%  
174 0% 99.9%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0.1% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.8%  
178 0% 99.8%  
179 0% 99.8%  
180 0% 99.7%  
181 0% 99.7%  
182 0% 99.7%  
183 0% 99.7%  
184 0% 99.6%  
185 0.5% 99.6%  
186 0.1% 99.1%  
187 0% 99.1%  
188 0.2% 99.1%  
189 0% 98.9%  
190 0.3% 98.9%  
191 0% 98.6%  
192 0% 98.5%  
193 0.1% 98.5%  
194 0% 98%  
195 0.1% 98%  
196 0.1% 98%  
197 0% 98%  
198 0% 98%  
199 0% 98%  
200 0.1% 98%  
201 0.2% 98%  
202 0% 98%  
203 2% 98%  
204 0.3% 96%  
205 17% 95%  
206 1.2% 78%  
207 0.2% 77%  
208 0.5% 76%  
209 10% 76%  
210 0.7% 66%  
211 10% 66%  
212 0.2% 56%  
213 10% 55% Median
214 2% 46%  
215 2% 44%  
216 0.8% 42%  
217 1.3% 41%  
218 16% 40%  
219 10% 23%  
220 0.4% 13%  
221 4% 13%  
222 0.1% 9%  
223 0.7% 9%  
224 0.6% 8%  
225 0.1% 7%  
226 0.2% 7%  
227 1.4% 7%  
228 0% 6%  
229 0.1% 6%  
230 0.3% 6%  
231 0.2% 5%  
232 0.1% 5%  
233 0% 5%  
234 0.1% 5%  
235 0.1% 5%  
236 0.7% 5%  
237 0.1% 4%  
238 0.1% 4%  
239 1.1% 4%  
240 0.1% 3%  
241 2% 3%  
242 0% 0.7%  
243 0% 0.7%  
244 0.4% 0.6%  
245 0% 0.3%  
246 0% 0.2%  
247 0% 0.2%  
248 0% 0.2%  
249 0.1% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.8%  
133 0% 99.8%  
134 0% 99.8%  
135 0% 99.8%  
136 0% 99.8%  
137 0% 99.8%  
138 0.1% 99.7%  
139 0% 99.6%  
140 0.1% 99.6%  
141 0% 99.5%  
142 0% 99.5%  
143 0.4% 99.5%  
144 0.5% 99.0%  
145 0% 98.6%  
146 0% 98.6%  
147 0.1% 98.5%  
148 0% 98%  
149 0% 98%  
150 0% 98%  
151 0.1% 98%  
152 0% 98%  
153 0.3% 98%  
154 2% 98%  
155 0.2% 96%  
156 0.4% 95%  
157 0% 95%  
158 18% 95%  
159 0.9% 77%  
160 0.2% 76%  
161 0% 76%  
162 10% 76%  
163 0.8% 66%  
164 10% 66%  
165 1.3% 56%  
166 7% 54% Median
167 2% 47%  
168 0.8% 45%  
169 0.5% 44%  
170 3% 44%  
171 0.7% 40%  
172 24% 40%  
173 0.5% 16%  
174 0.3% 16%  
175 6% 15%  
176 1.0% 10%  
177 0.4% 9%  
178 2% 8%  
179 0% 6%  
180 0.3% 6%  
181 0.6% 6%  
182 0% 5%  
183 0.1% 5%  
184 0% 5%  
185 0.1% 5%  
186 0.8% 5%  
187 0.1% 4%  
188 0.1% 4%  
189 0.1% 4%  
190 1.3% 4%  
191 0% 3%  
192 1.2% 3%  
193 1.0% 2%  
194 0% 0.7%  
195 0.1% 0.7%  
196 0.4% 0.6%  
197 0% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.2%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0.1% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.8%  
125 0% 99.8%  
126 0% 99.8%  
127 0% 99.7%  
128 0% 99.7%  
129 0% 99.7%  
130 0.1% 99.7%  
131 0.5% 99.6%  
132 0.1% 99.2%  
133 0% 99.1%  
134 0.2% 99.1%  
135 0% 98.9%  
136 0.3% 98.9%  
137 0% 98.6%  
138 0% 98.6%  
139 0.1% 98.5%  
140 0% 98%  
141 0% 98%  
142 0.1% 98%  
143 0% 98%  
144 0% 98%  
145 0% 98%  
146 0% 98%  
147 0.2% 98%  
148 0% 98%  
149 2% 98%  
150 0.3% 96%  
151 14% 95%  
152 1.5% 81%  
153 0.2% 80%  
154 4% 80%  
155 9% 76%  
156 0.5% 67%  
157 10% 66%  
158 0.8% 56%  
159 8% 55% Median
160 2% 47%  
161 2% 46%  
162 0.8% 43%  
163 2% 42%  
164 0.3% 40%  
165 26% 40%  
166 0.5% 13%  
167 4% 13%  
168 0.1% 9%  
169 0.2% 9%  
170 0.6% 9%  
171 0.6% 8%  
172 0.2% 7%  
173 0% 7%  
174 1.4% 7%  
175 0.1% 6%  
176 0.1% 6%  
177 0.4% 6%  
178 0.1% 5%  
179 0% 5%  
180 0% 5%  
181 0.1% 5%  
182 0.7% 5%  
183 0.1% 4%  
184 0.1% 4%  
185 0% 4%  
186 1.2% 4%  
187 0% 3%  
188 1.2% 3%  
189 0.9% 2%  
190 0.4% 0.7%  
191 0.1% 0.3%  
192 0% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.2%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.8%  
125 0% 99.8%  
126 0% 99.8%  
127 0% 99.7%  
128 0% 99.7%  
129 0% 99.7%  
130 0.1% 99.7%  
131 0.5% 99.6%  
132 0.1% 99.2%  
133 0% 99.1%  
134 0.2% 99.1%  
135 0% 98.9%  
136 0.3% 98.9%  
137 0% 98.6%  
138 0% 98.6%  
139 0.1% 98.5%  
140 0% 98%  
141 0% 98%  
142 0.1% 98%  
143 0% 98%  
144 0% 98%  
145 0% 98%  
146 0% 98%  
147 0.2% 98%  
148 0% 98%  
149 2% 98%  
150 0.3% 96%  
151 14% 95%  
152 1.5% 81%  
153 0.2% 80%  
154 4% 80%  
155 9% 76%  
156 0.5% 67%  
157 10% 66%  
158 0.8% 56%  
159 8% 55% Median
160 2% 47%  
161 2% 46%  
162 0.8% 43%  
163 2% 42%  
164 0.3% 40%  
165 26% 40%  
166 0.5% 13%  
167 4% 13%  
168 0.1% 9%  
169 0.2% 9%  
170 0.6% 9%  
171 0.6% 8%  
172 0.2% 7%  
173 0% 7%  
174 1.4% 7%  
175 0.1% 6%  
176 0.1% 6%  
177 0.4% 6%  
178 0.1% 5%  
179 0% 5%  
180 0% 5%  
181 0.1% 5%  
182 0.7% 5%  
183 0.1% 4%  
184 0.1% 4%  
185 0% 4%  
186 1.2% 4%  
187 0% 3%  
188 1.2% 3%  
189 0.9% 2%  
190 0.4% 0.7%  
191 0.1% 0.3%  
192 0% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.2%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations