Opinion Poll by BMG Research for The Independent, 1–4 October 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | 43.4% | 31.2% | 29.7–32.7% | 29.2–33.2% | 28.9–33.6% | 28.2–34.3% |
| Labour Party | 41.0% | 26.2% | 24.7–27.6% | 24.3–28.1% | 24.0–28.4% | 23.3–29.2% |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.6% | 20.1% | 18.8–21.5% | 18.4–21.8% | 18.1–22.2% | 17.5–22.8% |
| Brexit Party | 0.0% | 11.0% | 10.1–12.1% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.1–13.3% |
| Green Party | 1.7% | 7.1% | 6.3–8.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.9–8.5% | 5.5–8.9% |
| Scottish National Party | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.4% |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.9% |
| UK Independence Party | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | 317 | 284 | 266–308 | 254–312 | 248–315 | 235–329 |
| Labour Party | 262 | 219 | 199–231 | 192–242 | 189–249 | 178–260 |
| Liberal Democrats | 12 | 73 | 66–79 | 65–81 | 64–84 | 61–88 |
| Brexit Party | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| Green Party | 1 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Scottish National Party | 35 | 47 | 37–49 | 37–51 | 36–51 | 29–53 |
| Plaid Cymru | 4 | 7 | 4–10 | 4–11 | 4–11 | 3–15 |
| UK Independence Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 218 | 0% | 100% | |
| 219 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 220 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 221 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 222 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 223 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 224 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 225 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 226 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 232 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 234 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 237 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 238 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 239 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 240 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 241 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 242 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 243 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 244 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 246 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 248 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 249 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 250 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 251 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 253 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 254 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 256 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 258 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 260 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 261 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 262 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 263 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 265 | 2% | 92% | |
| 266 | 1.0% | 91% | |
| 267 | 1.5% | 90% | |
| 268 | 2% | 88% | |
| 269 | 1.1% | 86% | |
| 270 | 0.7% | 85% | |
| 271 | 1.1% | 85% | |
| 272 | 0.7% | 84% | |
| 273 | 5% | 83% | |
| 274 | 3% | 78% | |
| 275 | 2% | 75% | |
| 276 | 4% | 73% | |
| 277 | 2% | 69% | |
| 278 | 3% | 67% | |
| 279 | 6% | 64% | |
| 280 | 4% | 58% | |
| 281 | 1.5% | 54% | |
| 282 | 0.8% | 52% | |
| 283 | 1.4% | 52% | |
| 284 | 1.1% | 50% | Median |
| 285 | 4% | 49% | |
| 286 | 2% | 45% | |
| 287 | 4% | 42% | |
| 288 | 0.9% | 38% | |
| 289 | 0.8% | 37% | |
| 290 | 1.5% | 37% | |
| 291 | 3% | 35% | |
| 292 | 1.2% | 32% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 31% | |
| 294 | 0.5% | 31% | |
| 295 | 6% | 30% | |
| 296 | 1.1% | 25% | |
| 297 | 2% | 24% | |
| 298 | 2% | 22% | |
| 299 | 0.2% | 20% | |
| 300 | 2% | 20% | |
| 301 | 3% | 18% | |
| 302 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 303 | 0.2% | 14% | |
| 304 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 305 | 2% | 14% | |
| 306 | 0.6% | 12% | |
| 307 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 308 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 309 | 0.7% | 10% | |
| 310 | 0.9% | 9% | |
| 311 | 3% | 8% | |
| 312 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 313 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 314 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 315 | 2% | 5% | |
| 316 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 317 | 0.6% | 2% | Last Result |
| 318 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 319 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 320 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 321 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 322 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 323 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 324 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 325 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 326 | 0.2% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 329 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 98.5% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 189 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 190 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 191 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 192 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 195 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 197 | 1.5% | 93% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 199 | 2% | 91% | |
| 200 | 3% | 90% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 87% | |
| 202 | 0.9% | 87% | |
| 203 | 2% | 86% | |
| 204 | 1.3% | 84% | |
| 205 | 3% | 83% | |
| 206 | 0.4% | 79% | |
| 207 | 2% | 79% | |
| 208 | 0.6% | 77% | |
| 209 | 5% | 76% | |
| 210 | 1.0% | 71% | |
| 211 | 3% | 70% | |
| 212 | 3% | 67% | |
| 213 | 1.0% | 65% | |
| 214 | 1.0% | 64% | |
| 215 | 5% | 63% | |
| 216 | 1.0% | 57% | |
| 217 | 1.4% | 56% | |
| 218 | 2% | 55% | |
| 219 | 10% | 53% | Median |
| 220 | 2% | 43% | |
| 221 | 2% | 42% | |
| 222 | 4% | 40% | |
| 223 | 2% | 35% | |
| 224 | 2% | 33% | |
| 225 | 2% | 31% | |
| 226 | 7% | 30% | |
| 227 | 1.0% | 23% | |
| 228 | 2% | 22% | |
| 229 | 6% | 21% | |
| 230 | 2% | 15% | |
| 231 | 4% | 13% | |
| 232 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 234 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 235 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 236 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 237 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 238 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 239 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 241 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 242 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 243 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 244 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 246 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 249 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 251 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 252 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 253 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 254 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 260 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 263 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 264 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 265 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 267 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 269 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 275 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0% |
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 65 | 4% | 97% | |
| 66 | 6% | 94% | |
| 67 | 1.1% | 88% | |
| 68 | 1.2% | 87% | |
| 69 | 2% | 86% | |
| 70 | 11% | 84% | |
| 71 | 12% | 73% | |
| 72 | 10% | 61% | |
| 73 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 74 | 11% | 45% | |
| 75 | 7% | 34% | |
| 76 | 4% | 27% | |
| 77 | 7% | 23% | |
| 78 | 4% | 15% | |
| 79 | 4% | 12% | |
| 80 | 3% | 8% | |
| 81 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 82 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 84 | 2% | 3% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Brexit Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 58% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 28% | 42% | |
| 2 | 13% | 14% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 25% | 99.3% | |
| 5 | 73% | 75% | Median |
| 6 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 36 | 2% | 98% | |
| 37 | 9% | 96% | |
| 38 | 3% | 87% | |
| 39 | 1.1% | 84% | |
| 40 | 2% | 83% | |
| 41 | 2% | 81% | |
| 42 | 3% | 80% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 76% | |
| 44 | 15% | 76% | |
| 45 | 5% | 61% | |
| 46 | 3% | 55% | |
| 47 | 10% | 53% | Median |
| 48 | 22% | 43% | |
| 49 | 12% | 21% | |
| 50 | 2% | 9% | |
| 51 | 6% | 7% | |
| 52 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 23% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 5 | 13% | 77% | |
| 6 | 6% | 64% | |
| 7 | 35% | 58% | Median |
| 8 | 4% | 22% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 18% | |
| 10 | 11% | 16% | |
| 11 | 3% | 5% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
UK Independence Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats | 329 | 356 | 97% | 342–376 | 331–387 | 324–390 | 313–399 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 314 | 347 | 89% | 323–364 | 319–377 | 317–383 | 303–396 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 313 | 342 | 85% | 319–360 | 314–373 | 312–378 | 298–392 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party | 309 | 336 | 72% | 311–354 | 306–366 | 302–373 | 291–386 |
| Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 356 | 334 | 78% | 319–358 | 309–362 | 301–368 | 286–379 |
| Conservative Party – Scottish National Party | 352 | 327 | 56% | 312–351 | 303–355 | 296–359 | 282–372 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru | 278 | 300 | 4% | 276–313 | 272–325 | 268–331 | 254–345 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats | 274 | 293 | 2% | 269–306 | 265–318 | 259–325 | 248–341 |
| Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru | 321 | 291 | 2% | 272–314 | 261–320 | 253–325 | 240–336 |
| Conservative Party – Brexit Party | 317 | 285 | 0.9% | 268–309 | 255–313 | 249–315 | 236–329 |
| Conservative Party | 317 | 284 | 0.9% | 266–308 | 254–312 | 248–315 | 235–329 |
| Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 301 | 271 | 0.1% | 251–285 | 240–296 | 237–302 | 228–312 |
| Labour Party – Scottish National Party | 297 | 263 | 0% | 244–278 | 233–289 | 229–296 | 221–308 |
| Labour Party – Plaid Cymru | 266 | 226 | 0% | 207–238 | 199–249 | 197–255 | 184–265 |
| Labour Party | 262 | 219 | 0% | 199–231 | 192–242 | 189–249 | 178–260 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 298 | 0% | 100% | |
| 299 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 300 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 301 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 302 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 303 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 304 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 305 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 306 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 307 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 308 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 309 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 310 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 311 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 312 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 313 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 314 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 315 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 316 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 317 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 318 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 319 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 320 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 321 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 322 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 323 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 324 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 325 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 326 | 0.1% | 97% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 97% | |
| 328 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 329 | 1.4% | 97% | Last Result |
| 330 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 331 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 333 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 334 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 335 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 336 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 337 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 338 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 339 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 340 | 2% | 93% | |
| 341 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 342 | 1.5% | 90% | |
| 343 | 1.1% | 89% | |
| 344 | 5% | 88% | |
| 345 | 0.7% | 83% | |
| 346 | 5% | 82% | |
| 347 | 0.7% | 77% | |
| 348 | 4% | 76% | |
| 349 | 0.9% | 72% | |
| 350 | 0.5% | 71% | |
| 351 | 4% | 70% | |
| 352 | 0.7% | 66% | |
| 353 | 8% | 65% | |
| 354 | 0.8% | 57% | |
| 355 | 5% | 56% | |
| 356 | 3% | 51% | |
| 357 | 2% | 48% | Median |
| 358 | 1.3% | 46% | |
| 359 | 2% | 45% | |
| 360 | 3% | 43% | |
| 361 | 0.9% | 39% | |
| 362 | 2% | 39% | |
| 363 | 1.2% | 37% | |
| 364 | 2% | 36% | |
| 365 | 2% | 34% | |
| 366 | 1.2% | 32% | |
| 367 | 7% | 31% | |
| 368 | 3% | 23% | |
| 369 | 0.2% | 21% | |
| 370 | 1.5% | 21% | |
| 371 | 4% | 19% | |
| 372 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 373 | 2% | 15% | |
| 374 | 1.1% | 13% | |
| 375 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 376 | 3% | 11% | |
| 377 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 378 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 379 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 380 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 381 | 0% | 7% | |
| 382 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 383 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 384 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 385 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 386 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 387 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 388 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 389 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 390 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 391 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 392 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 393 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 394 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 395 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 396 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 398 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 400 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 401 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 402 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 403 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 404 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 405 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 406 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 407 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 408 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 409 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 410 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 411 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 289 | 0% | 100% | |
| 290 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 291 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 292 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 293 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 294 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 295 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 296 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 297 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 298 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 299 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 300 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 302 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 304 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 305 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 306 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 307 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 308 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 309 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 310 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 311 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 312 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 313 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 314 | 0.1% | 98% | Last Result |
| 315 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 316 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 317 | 2% | 98% | |
| 318 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 319 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 320 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 321 | 3% | 94% | |
| 322 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 323 | 1.0% | 91% | |
| 324 | 0.3% | 90% | |
| 325 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 326 | 0.8% | 89% | Majority |
| 327 | 2% | 88% | |
| 328 | 0.3% | 86% | |
| 329 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 330 | 0.5% | 86% | |
| 331 | 3% | 85% | |
| 332 | 2% | 82% | |
| 333 | 0.2% | 80% | |
| 334 | 2% | 80% | |
| 335 | 2% | 78% | |
| 336 | 6% | 76% | |
| 337 | 0.9% | 70% | |
| 338 | 0.5% | 69% | |
| 339 | 0.3% | 69% | |
| 340 | 2% | 69% | |
| 341 | 2% | 66% | |
| 342 | 2% | 65% | |
| 343 | 1.1% | 63% | |
| 344 | 4% | 62% | |
| 345 | 1.2% | 58% | |
| 346 | 3% | 57% | |
| 347 | 6% | 55% | |
| 348 | 0.4% | 49% | |
| 349 | 0.6% | 48% | |
| 350 | 2% | 48% | |
| 351 | 2% | 46% | Median |
| 352 | 4% | 44% | |
| 353 | 7% | 41% | |
| 354 | 0.8% | 34% | |
| 355 | 3% | 33% | |
| 356 | 5% | 30% | |
| 357 | 3% | 26% | |
| 358 | 5% | 23% | |
| 359 | 1.1% | 17% | |
| 360 | 0.6% | 16% | |
| 361 | 0.8% | 16% | |
| 362 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 363 | 3% | 14% | |
| 364 | 0.8% | 11% | |
| 365 | 2% | 10% | |
| 366 | 0.6% | 8% | |
| 367 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 368 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 369 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 370 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 371 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 372 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 373 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 374 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 375 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 376 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 377 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 378 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 379 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 380 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 381 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 382 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 383 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 384 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 385 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 386 | 0% | 2% | |
| 387 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 388 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 389 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 390 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 391 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 392 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 393 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 394 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 395 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 398 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 400 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 401 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 402 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 403 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 404 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 405 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 406 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 407 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 408 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 409 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 410 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 411 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 412 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 413 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 414 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 415 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 284 | 0% | 100% | |
| 285 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 286 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 287 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 288 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 289 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 290 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 291 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 292 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 293 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 294 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 295 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 296 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 297 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 298 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 299 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 300 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 302 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 303 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 304 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 305 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 306 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 307 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 308 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 309 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 310 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 311 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 312 | 2% | 98% | |
| 313 | 0.2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 314 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 315 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 316 | 3% | 94% | |
| 317 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 318 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 319 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 320 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 321 | 0.6% | 89% | |
| 322 | 2% | 88% | |
| 323 | 0.3% | 86% | |
| 324 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 325 | 0.4% | 86% | |
| 326 | 2% | 85% | Majority |
| 327 | 4% | 84% | |
| 328 | 0.1% | 80% | |
| 329 | 0.4% | 80% | |
| 330 | 3% | 80% | |
| 331 | 6% | 76% | |
| 332 | 0.5% | 70% | |
| 333 | 0.7% | 70% | |
| 334 | 0.4% | 69% | |
| 335 | 2% | 69% | |
| 336 | 2% | 67% | |
| 337 | 1.4% | 65% | |
| 338 | 0.7% | 63% | |
| 339 | 4% | 63% | |
| 340 | 0.5% | 58% | |
| 341 | 3% | 58% | |
| 342 | 6% | 55% | |
| 343 | 0.4% | 49% | |
| 344 | 0.3% | 48% | |
| 345 | 2% | 48% | |
| 346 | 2% | 46% | Median |
| 347 | 2% | 44% | |
| 348 | 8% | 42% | |
| 349 | 0.4% | 34% | |
| 350 | 3% | 33% | |
| 351 | 1.0% | 30% | |
| 352 | 5% | 29% | |
| 353 | 7% | 25% | |
| 354 | 1.0% | 18% | |
| 355 | 0.4% | 17% | |
| 356 | 1.0% | 16% | |
| 357 | 1.2% | 15% | |
| 358 | 2% | 14% | |
| 359 | 2% | 12% | |
| 360 | 2% | 10% | |
| 361 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 362 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 363 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 364 | 0% | 7% | |
| 365 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 366 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 367 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 368 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 369 | 0% | 6% | |
| 370 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 371 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 372 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 373 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 374 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 375 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 376 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 377 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 378 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 379 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 380 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 381 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 382 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 383 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 384 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 385 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 386 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 387 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 388 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 389 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 390 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 391 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 392 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 393 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 395 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 398 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 400 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 401 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 402 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 403 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 404 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 405 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 406 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 407 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 408 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 409 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 410 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 277 | 0% | 100% | |
| 278 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 279 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 280 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 281 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 282 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 283 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 284 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 286 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 287 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 288 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 290 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 291 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 293 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 295 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 296 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 297 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 298 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 299 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 300 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 98.5% | |
| 302 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 303 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 304 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 305 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 306 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 307 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 308 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 309 | 3% | 94% | Last Result |
| 310 | 1.1% | 92% | |
| 311 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 312 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 313 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 314 | 0.3% | 90% | |
| 315 | 0.9% | 89% | |
| 316 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 317 | 0.9% | 88% | |
| 318 | 2% | 87% | |
| 319 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 320 | 4% | 85% | |
| 321 | 1.3% | 80% | |
| 322 | 0.5% | 79% | |
| 323 | 0.4% | 79% | |
| 324 | 0.8% | 78% | |
| 325 | 5% | 77% | |
| 326 | 4% | 72% | Majority |
| 327 | 1.4% | 68% | |
| 328 | 0.8% | 67% | |
| 329 | 0.7% | 66% | |
| 330 | 0.8% | 65% | |
| 331 | 2% | 65% | |
| 332 | 8% | 63% | |
| 333 | 0.8% | 55% | |
| 334 | 3% | 54% | |
| 335 | 1.0% | 51% | |
| 336 | 1.0% | 50% | |
| 337 | 0.5% | 49% | |
| 338 | 3% | 49% | |
| 339 | 1.3% | 46% | Median |
| 340 | 2% | 44% | |
| 341 | 7% | 43% | |
| 342 | 3% | 36% | |
| 343 | 0.8% | 33% | |
| 344 | 1.2% | 32% | |
| 345 | 4% | 31% | |
| 346 | 4% | 27% | |
| 347 | 1.0% | 22% | |
| 348 | 5% | 21% | |
| 349 | 0.6% | 16% | |
| 350 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 351 | 0.5% | 14% | |
| 352 | 2% | 14% | |
| 353 | 2% | 12% | |
| 354 | 2% | 11% | |
| 355 | 0.9% | 9% | |
| 356 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 357 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 358 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 359 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 360 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 361 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 362 | 0% | 6% | |
| 363 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 364 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 365 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 366 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 367 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 368 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 369 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 370 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 371 | 0% | 3% | |
| 372 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 373 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 374 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 375 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 376 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 377 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 378 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 379 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 380 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 381 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 382 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 383 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 384 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 385 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 386 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 387 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 388 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 389 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 390 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 391 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 392 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 393 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 394 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 395 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 396 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 398 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 400 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 401 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 402 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 403 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 404 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 270 | 0% | 100% | |
| 271 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 272 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 273 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 274 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 275 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 277 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 278 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 280 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 282 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 283 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 284 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 285 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 287 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 288 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 289 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 291 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 292 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 294 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 295 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 296 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 297 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 298 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 299 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 300 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 301 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 302 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 304 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 305 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 306 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 307 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 308 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 309 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 310 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 311 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 312 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 313 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 314 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 315 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 316 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 317 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 318 | 0.6% | 91% | |
| 319 | 2% | 91% | |
| 320 | 2% | 89% | |
| 321 | 1.2% | 87% | |
| 322 | 1.2% | 86% | |
| 323 | 2% | 85% | |
| 324 | 0.9% | 83% | |
| 325 | 4% | 82% | |
| 326 | 5% | 78% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.9% | 72% | |
| 328 | 2% | 72% | |
| 329 | 3% | 69% | |
| 330 | 2% | 66% | |
| 331 | 4% | 64% | |
| 332 | 4% | 60% | |
| 333 | 0.7% | 56% | |
| 334 | 6% | 55% | |
| 335 | 0.8% | 49% | |
| 336 | 3% | 48% | |
| 337 | 2% | 45% | |
| 338 | 0.5% | 43% | Median |
| 339 | 1.4% | 43% | |
| 340 | 2% | 41% | |
| 341 | 0.9% | 40% | |
| 342 | 6% | 39% | |
| 343 | 0.6% | 33% | |
| 344 | 0.3% | 32% | |
| 345 | 6% | 32% | |
| 346 | 1.0% | 26% | |
| 347 | 2% | 25% | |
| 348 | 0.5% | 23% | |
| 349 | 0.2% | 22% | |
| 350 | 2% | 22% | |
| 351 | 3% | 21% | |
| 352 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 353 | 1.4% | 16% | |
| 354 | 2% | 15% | |
| 355 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 356 | 0.3% | 13% | Last Result |
| 357 | 2% | 13% | |
| 358 | 0.8% | 10% | |
| 359 | 0.7% | 10% | |
| 360 | 2% | 9% | |
| 361 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 362 | 3% | 7% | |
| 363 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 364 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 365 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 366 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 367 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 368 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 369 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 370 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 371 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 372 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 373 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 374 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 375 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 376 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 377 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 378 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 379 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 380 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 381 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 382 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 383 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 384 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 385 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 386 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 387 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 388 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 389 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 390 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 263 | 0% | 100% | |
| 264 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 265 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 266 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 267 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 268 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 269 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 270 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 271 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 273 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 274 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 276 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 277 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 278 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 279 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 280 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 281 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 282 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 283 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 284 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 285 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 288 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 289 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 294 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 295 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 296 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 297 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 298 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 299 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 300 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 301 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 302 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 303 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 304 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 305 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 306 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 307 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 308 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 309 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 310 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 311 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 312 | 2% | 91% | |
| 313 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 314 | 1.2% | 89% | |
| 315 | 0.6% | 88% | |
| 316 | 4% | 88% | |
| 317 | 2% | 84% | |
| 318 | 0.6% | 82% | |
| 319 | 0.3% | 81% | |
| 320 | 4% | 81% | |
| 321 | 7% | 77% | |
| 322 | 3% | 70% | |
| 323 | 3% | 67% | |
| 324 | 4% | 64% | |
| 325 | 4% | 61% | |
| 326 | 2% | 56% | Majority |
| 327 | 7% | 54% | |
| 328 | 0.7% | 47% | |
| 329 | 2% | 46% | |
| 330 | 0.5% | 44% | |
| 331 | 1.1% | 44% | Median |
| 332 | 5% | 43% | |
| 333 | 0.8% | 38% | |
| 334 | 0.8% | 37% | |
| 335 | 2% | 36% | |
| 336 | 2% | 34% | |
| 337 | 1.1% | 32% | |
| 338 | 1.1% | 31% | |
| 339 | 5% | 30% | |
| 340 | 0.3% | 25% | |
| 341 | 2% | 24% | |
| 342 | 0.4% | 22% | |
| 343 | 0.4% | 21% | |
| 344 | 2% | 21% | |
| 345 | 2% | 19% | |
| 346 | 0.6% | 17% | |
| 347 | 0.9% | 17% | |
| 348 | 0.4% | 16% | |
| 349 | 2% | 15% | |
| 350 | 3% | 14% | |
| 351 | 0.8% | 10% | |
| 352 | 0.1% | 9% | Last Result |
| 353 | 2% | 9% | |
| 354 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 355 | 4% | 8% | |
| 356 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 357 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 358 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 359 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 360 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 361 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 362 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 363 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 364 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 365 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 366 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 367 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 368 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 369 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 370 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 371 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 372 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 373 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 374 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 375 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 376 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 377 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 378 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 379 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 380 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 381 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 246 | 0% | 100% | |
| 247 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 248 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 249 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 250 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 254 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 257 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 258 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 262 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 263 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 264 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 265 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 266 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 267 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 268 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 269 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 270 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 271 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 272 | 3% | 96% | |
| 273 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 274 | 2% | 92% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 276 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 277 | 2% | 90% | |
| 278 | 2% | 88% | Last Result |
| 279 | 1.4% | 85% | |
| 280 | 0.5% | 84% | |
| 281 | 0.5% | 83% | |
| 282 | 2% | 83% | |
| 283 | 2% | 81% | |
| 284 | 0.5% | 79% | |
| 285 | 0.3% | 78% | |
| 286 | 2% | 78% | |
| 287 | 5% | 76% | |
| 288 | 0.5% | 70% | |
| 289 | 0.3% | 70% | |
| 290 | 3% | 70% | |
| 291 | 0.8% | 66% | |
| 292 | 2% | 66% | |
| 293 | 1.0% | 64% | |
| 294 | 2% | 63% | |
| 295 | 4% | 61% | |
| 296 | 0.8% | 57% | |
| 297 | 1.2% | 56% | |
| 298 | 0.8% | 55% | |
| 299 | 2% | 54% | Median |
| 300 | 8% | 53% | |
| 301 | 0.8% | 45% | |
| 302 | 4% | 44% | |
| 303 | 5% | 40% | |
| 304 | 3% | 35% | |
| 305 | 8% | 32% | |
| 306 | 3% | 24% | |
| 307 | 2% | 21% | |
| 308 | 2% | 19% | |
| 309 | 2% | 18% | |
| 310 | 4% | 16% | |
| 311 | 0.9% | 12% | |
| 312 | 0.6% | 12% | |
| 313 | 2% | 11% | |
| 314 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 315 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 316 | 0.6% | 8% | |
| 317 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 318 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 319 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 320 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 321 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 322 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 323 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 324 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 325 | 2% | 5% | |
| 326 | 0.2% | 4% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 328 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 329 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 330 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 332 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 333 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 334 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 335 | 0% | 2% | |
| 336 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 337 | 0% | 2% | |
| 338 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 339 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 340 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 341 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 345 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 350 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 351 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 353 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 355 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 357 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 358 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 359 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 360 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 361 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 362 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 363 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 238 | 0% | 100% | |
| 239 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 240 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 241 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 242 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 243 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 244 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 245 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 246 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 249 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 252 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 253 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 254 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 256 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 257 | 0.4% | 98.5% | |
| 258 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 259 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 261 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 262 | 0% | 97% | |
| 263 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 264 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 265 | 3% | 96% | |
| 266 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 267 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 268 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 269 | 2% | 91% | |
| 270 | 0.5% | 89% | |
| 271 | 2% | 89% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 273 | 2% | 87% | |
| 274 | 0.2% | 85% | Last Result |
| 275 | 2% | 85% | |
| 276 | 3% | 83% | |
| 277 | 1.5% | 79% | |
| 278 | 0.2% | 78% | |
| 279 | 0.8% | 78% | |
| 280 | 2% | 77% | |
| 281 | 5% | 75% | |
| 282 | 2% | 70% | |
| 283 | 0.6% | 68% | |
| 284 | 0.9% | 68% | |
| 285 | 5% | 67% | |
| 286 | 3% | 62% | |
| 287 | 0.5% | 59% | |
| 288 | 0.6% | 58% | |
| 289 | 1.0% | 58% | |
| 290 | 4% | 57% | |
| 291 | 1.1% | 53% | |
| 292 | 0.8% | 52% | Median |
| 293 | 6% | 51% | |
| 294 | 1.4% | 45% | |
| 295 | 4% | 44% | |
| 296 | 5% | 40% | |
| 297 | 2% | 35% | |
| 298 | 2% | 33% | |
| 299 | 3% | 31% | |
| 300 | 6% | 28% | |
| 301 | 1.3% | 22% | |
| 302 | 4% | 21% | |
| 303 | 3% | 17% | |
| 304 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 305 | 1.0% | 14% | |
| 306 | 4% | 13% | |
| 307 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 308 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 309 | 0.6% | 9% | |
| 310 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 311 | 0.6% | 8% | |
| 312 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 313 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 314 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 315 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 316 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 317 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 318 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 319 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 320 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 321 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 322 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 323 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 324 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 325 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 326 | 0.1% | 2% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 328 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 329 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 330 | 0% | 2% | |
| 331 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 332 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 333 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 334 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 341 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 346 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 347 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 353 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 355 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 225 | 0% | 100% | |
| 226 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 227 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 228 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 232 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 234 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 237 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 238 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 239 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 241 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 242 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 243 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 244 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 245 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 246 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 248 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 249 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 250 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 251 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 253 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 254 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 258 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 259 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 260 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 261 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 262 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 263 | 0% | 94% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 266 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 267 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 268 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 269 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 270 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 271 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 272 | 3% | 91% | |
| 273 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 274 | 1.4% | 88% | |
| 275 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 276 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 277 | 0.4% | 85% | |
| 278 | 5% | 85% | |
| 279 | 1.4% | 80% | |
| 280 | 1.4% | 78% | |
| 281 | 5% | 77% | |
| 282 | 0.4% | 72% | |
| 283 | 5% | 72% | |
| 284 | 0.9% | 67% | |
| 285 | 3% | 66% | |
| 286 | 7% | 63% | |
| 287 | 0.9% | 56% | |
| 288 | 3% | 55% | |
| 289 | 0.7% | 52% | |
| 290 | 0.9% | 51% | |
| 291 | 1.1% | 50% | Median |
| 292 | 0.9% | 49% | |
| 293 | 3% | 48% | |
| 294 | 4% | 45% | |
| 295 | 6% | 42% | |
| 296 | 0.8% | 36% | |
| 297 | 0.5% | 35% | |
| 298 | 1.0% | 35% | |
| 299 | 0.9% | 34% | |
| 300 | 1.1% | 33% | |
| 301 | 8% | 32% | |
| 302 | 2% | 24% | |
| 303 | 0.7% | 22% | |
| 304 | 0.4% | 21% | |
| 305 | 0.2% | 21% | |
| 306 | 1.3% | 21% | |
| 307 | 3% | 20% | |
| 308 | 2% | 16% | |
| 309 | 3% | 15% | |
| 310 | 0.5% | 12% | |
| 311 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 312 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 313 | 0.8% | 11% | |
| 314 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 315 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 316 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 317 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 318 | 3% | 9% | |
| 319 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 320 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 321 | 0.1% | 5% | Last Result |
| 322 | 2% | 5% | |
| 323 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 324 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 325 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 326 | 0.1% | 2% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 328 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 329 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 330 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 331 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 333 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 336 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 337 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 338 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 339 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 342 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 343 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Brexit Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 218 | 0% | 100% | |
| 219 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 220 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 221 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 222 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 223 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 224 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 225 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 226 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 227 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 232 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 234 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 238 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 240 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 241 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 242 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 243 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 244 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 245 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 246 | 0% | 98% | |
| 247 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 249 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 252 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 253 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 254 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 255 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 256 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 258 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 260 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 261 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 262 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 263 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 264 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 265 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 266 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 267 | 2% | 92% | |
| 268 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 269 | 3% | 89% | |
| 270 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 271 | 0.8% | 85% | |
| 272 | 0.6% | 84% | |
| 273 | 1.0% | 84% | |
| 274 | 5% | 83% | |
| 275 | 3% | 77% | |
| 276 | 5% | 74% | |
| 277 | 3% | 70% | |
| 278 | 0.8% | 67% | |
| 279 | 7% | 66% | |
| 280 | 4% | 59% | |
| 281 | 2% | 56% | |
| 282 | 2% | 54% | |
| 283 | 0.7% | 52% | |
| 284 | 0.3% | 52% | Median |
| 285 | 6% | 51% | |
| 286 | 3% | 46% | |
| 287 | 1.2% | 43% | |
| 288 | 4% | 42% | |
| 289 | 1.1% | 38% | |
| 290 | 1.5% | 37% | |
| 291 | 2% | 35% | |
| 292 | 2% | 34% | |
| 293 | 0.2% | 31% | |
| 294 | 0.5% | 31% | |
| 295 | 0.8% | 31% | |
| 296 | 6% | 30% | |
| 297 | 2% | 24% | |
| 298 | 2% | 22% | |
| 299 | 0.2% | 20% | |
| 300 | 2% | 20% | |
| 301 | 3% | 18% | |
| 302 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 303 | 0.2% | 14% | |
| 304 | 0.2% | 14% | |
| 305 | 2% | 14% | |
| 306 | 0.8% | 12% | |
| 307 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 308 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 309 | 1.0% | 10% | |
| 310 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 311 | 3% | 8% | |
| 312 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 313 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 314 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 315 | 2% | 5% | |
| 316 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 317 | 0.7% | 2% | Last Result |
| 318 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 319 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 320 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 321 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 322 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 323 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 324 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 325 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 326 | 0.2% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 328 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 329 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 218 | 0% | 100% | |
| 219 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 220 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 221 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 222 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 223 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 224 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 225 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 226 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 232 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 234 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 237 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 238 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 239 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 240 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 241 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 242 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 243 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 244 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 246 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 248 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 249 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 250 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 251 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 253 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 254 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 256 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 258 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 260 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 261 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 262 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 263 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 265 | 2% | 92% | |
| 266 | 1.0% | 91% | |
| 267 | 1.5% | 90% | |
| 268 | 2% | 88% | |
| 269 | 1.1% | 86% | |
| 270 | 0.7% | 85% | |
| 271 | 1.1% | 85% | |
| 272 | 0.7% | 84% | |
| 273 | 5% | 83% | |
| 274 | 3% | 78% | |
| 275 | 2% | 75% | |
| 276 | 4% | 73% | |
| 277 | 2% | 69% | |
| 278 | 3% | 67% | |
| 279 | 6% | 64% | |
| 280 | 4% | 58% | |
| 281 | 1.5% | 54% | |
| 282 | 0.8% | 52% | |
| 283 | 1.4% | 52% | |
| 284 | 1.1% | 50% | Median |
| 285 | 4% | 49% | |
| 286 | 2% | 45% | |
| 287 | 4% | 42% | |
| 288 | 0.9% | 38% | |
| 289 | 0.8% | 37% | |
| 290 | 1.5% | 37% | |
| 291 | 3% | 35% | |
| 292 | 1.2% | 32% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 31% | |
| 294 | 0.5% | 31% | |
| 295 | 6% | 30% | |
| 296 | 1.1% | 25% | |
| 297 | 2% | 24% | |
| 298 | 2% | 22% | |
| 299 | 0.2% | 20% | |
| 300 | 2% | 20% | |
| 301 | 3% | 18% | |
| 302 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 303 | 0.2% | 14% | |
| 304 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 305 | 2% | 14% | |
| 306 | 0.6% | 12% | |
| 307 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 308 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 309 | 0.7% | 10% | |
| 310 | 0.9% | 9% | |
| 311 | 3% | 8% | |
| 312 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 313 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 314 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 315 | 2% | 5% | |
| 316 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 317 | 0.6% | 2% | Last Result |
| 318 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 319 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 320 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 321 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 322 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 323 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 324 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 325 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 326 | 0.2% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 329 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 216 | 0% | 100% | |
| 217 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 218 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 220 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 221 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 222 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 223 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 224 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 225 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 232 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 234 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 236 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 237 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 238 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 239 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 240 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 242 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 243 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 244 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 246 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 248 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 249 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 251 | 3% | 92% | |
| 252 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 253 | 0.5% | 89% | |
| 254 | 1.0% | 88% | |
| 255 | 2% | 87% | |
| 256 | 4% | 85% | |
| 257 | 0.5% | 81% | |
| 258 | 2% | 80% | |
| 259 | 7% | 79% | |
| 260 | 2% | 71% | |
| 261 | 3% | 69% | |
| 262 | 1.1% | 67% | |
| 263 | 2% | 66% | |
| 264 | 1.2% | 64% | |
| 265 | 2% | 63% | |
| 266 | 4% | 61% | |
| 267 | 0.2% | 57% | |
| 268 | 3% | 57% | |
| 269 | 1.1% | 54% | |
| 270 | 3% | 53% | |
| 271 | 1.3% | 50% | |
| 272 | 5% | 49% | |
| 273 | 2% | 44% | Median |
| 274 | 8% | 42% | |
| 275 | 2% | 34% | |
| 276 | 3% | 33% | |
| 277 | 1.5% | 30% | |
| 278 | 2% | 28% | |
| 279 | 2% | 26% | |
| 280 | 0.7% | 24% | |
| 281 | 0.5% | 23% | |
| 282 | 10% | 23% | |
| 283 | 1.5% | 13% | |
| 284 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 285 | 3% | 10% | |
| 286 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 287 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 288 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 289 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 290 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 291 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 294 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 295 | 0% | 5% | |
| 296 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 297 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 298 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 299 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 300 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 301 | 0.3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 302 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 303 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 304 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 305 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 306 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 307 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 308 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 310 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 311 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 312 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 322 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 324 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 209 | 0% | 100% | |
| 210 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 211 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 212 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 213 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 214 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 216 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 217 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 222 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 224 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 225 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 226 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 227 | 0% | 98.5% | |
| 228 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 229 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 230 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 231 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 232 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 233 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 234 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 235 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 236 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 238 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 241 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 242 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 243 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 244 | 3% | 92% | |
| 245 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 246 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 87% | |
| 248 | 2% | 87% | |
| 249 | 4% | 85% | |
| 250 | 0.9% | 82% | |
| 251 | 0.4% | 81% | |
| 252 | 3% | 80% | |
| 253 | 5% | 78% | |
| 254 | 2% | 72% | |
| 255 | 4% | 71% | |
| 256 | 2% | 66% | |
| 257 | 2% | 64% | |
| 258 | 0.6% | 62% | |
| 259 | 3% | 61% | |
| 260 | 0.9% | 58% | |
| 261 | 2% | 57% | |
| 262 | 5% | 55% | |
| 263 | 4% | 50% | |
| 264 | 0.7% | 46% | |
| 265 | 1.2% | 46% | |
| 266 | 3% | 44% | Median |
| 267 | 7% | 41% | |
| 268 | 0.9% | 35% | |
| 269 | 2% | 34% | |
| 270 | 2% | 31% | |
| 271 | 2% | 30% | |
| 272 | 2% | 28% | |
| 273 | 1.1% | 26% | |
| 274 | 2% | 25% | |
| 275 | 6% | 23% | |
| 276 | 0.4% | 17% | |
| 277 | 5% | 17% | |
| 278 | 2% | 11% | |
| 279 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 280 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 281 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 282 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 283 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 284 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 285 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 287 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 288 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 289 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 291 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 292 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 295 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 296 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 297 | 0.3% | 2% | Last Result |
| 298 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 299 | 0% | 2% | |
| 300 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 302 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 303 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 304 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 305 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 306 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 307 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 308 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 310 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 311 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 320 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 322 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 179 | 0% | 100% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 185 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 187 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 188 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 189 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 191 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 197 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 198 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 199 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 200 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 201 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 202 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 204 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 206 | 2% | 92% | |
| 207 | 4% | 90% | |
| 208 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 210 | 0.9% | 85% | |
| 211 | 2% | 84% | |
| 212 | 3% | 82% | |
| 213 | 1.0% | 79% | |
| 214 | 0.8% | 78% | |
| 215 | 7% | 77% | |
| 216 | 3% | 70% | |
| 217 | 0.9% | 67% | |
| 218 | 0.4% | 66% | |
| 219 | 0.3% | 66% | |
| 220 | 0.9% | 66% | |
| 221 | 1.1% | 65% | |
| 222 | 2% | 64% | |
| 223 | 1.3% | 61% | |
| 224 | 2% | 60% | |
| 225 | 5% | 58% | |
| 226 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 227 | 2% | 44% | |
| 228 | 3% | 42% | |
| 229 | 6% | 39% | |
| 230 | 2% | 34% | |
| 231 | 2% | 32% | |
| 232 | 2% | 30% | |
| 233 | 5% | 28% | |
| 234 | 7% | 23% | |
| 235 | 4% | 16% | |
| 236 | 0.8% | 12% | |
| 237 | 0.5% | 11% | |
| 238 | 2% | 10% | |
| 239 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 240 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 241 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 242 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 243 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 244 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 246 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 247 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 249 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 250 | 2% | 5% | |
| 251 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 253 | 0% | 3% | |
| 254 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 256 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 257 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 258 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 259 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 260 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 263 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 267 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 269 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 271 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 278 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 280 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 281 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 283 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 98.5% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 189 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 190 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 191 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 192 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 195 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 197 | 1.5% | 93% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 199 | 2% | 91% | |
| 200 | 3% | 90% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 87% | |
| 202 | 0.9% | 87% | |
| 203 | 2% | 86% | |
| 204 | 1.3% | 84% | |
| 205 | 3% | 83% | |
| 206 | 0.4% | 79% | |
| 207 | 2% | 79% | |
| 208 | 0.6% | 77% | |
| 209 | 5% | 76% | |
| 210 | 1.0% | 71% | |
| 211 | 3% | 70% | |
| 212 | 3% | 67% | |
| 213 | 1.0% | 65% | |
| 214 | 1.0% | 64% | |
| 215 | 5% | 63% | |
| 216 | 1.0% | 57% | |
| 217 | 1.4% | 56% | |
| 218 | 2% | 55% | |
| 219 | 10% | 53% | Median |
| 220 | 2% | 43% | |
| 221 | 2% | 42% | |
| 222 | 4% | 40% | |
| 223 | 2% | 35% | |
| 224 | 2% | 33% | |
| 225 | 2% | 31% | |
| 226 | 7% | 30% | |
| 227 | 1.0% | 23% | |
| 228 | 2% | 22% | |
| 229 | 6% | 21% | |
| 230 | 2% | 15% | |
| 231 | 4% | 13% | |
| 232 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 234 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 235 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 236 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 237 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 238 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 239 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 241 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 242 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 243 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 244 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 246 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 249 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 251 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 252 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 253 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 254 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 260 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 263 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 264 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 265 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 267 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 269 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 275 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: BMG Research
- Commissioner(s): The Independent
- Fieldwork period: 1–4 October 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1514
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.25%