Opinion Poll by Opinium for The Observer, 3–4 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 38.5% 37.1–39.9% 36.7–40.3% 36.4–40.6% 35.7–41.3%
Labour Party 41.0% 23.3% 22.1–24.5% 21.8–24.9% 21.5–25.2% 20.9–25.8%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 15.2% 14.2–16.3% 13.9–16.6% 13.7–16.9% 13.2–17.4%
Brexit Party 0.0% 12.2% 11.3–13.2% 11.0–13.4% 10.8–13.7% 10.4–14.2%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 5.1% 4.5–5.8% 4.3–6.0% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.5%
Green Party 1.7% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.4–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.0–5.3%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 366 347–386 347–388 346–393 342–399
Labour Party 262 165 146–178 143–182 140–182 136–185
Liberal Democrats 12 48 40–49 38–49 37–50 34–52
Brexit Party 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–3 0–4
Scottish National Party 35 54 51–54 51–55 51–55 50–55
Green Party 1 1 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0.2% 99.7%  
342 0.1% 99.5%  
343 0.2% 99.5%  
344 1.2% 99.3%  
345 0.2% 98%  
346 1.3% 98%  
347 7% 96%  
348 0.3% 90%  
349 0.5% 89%  
350 0.5% 89%  
351 0.5% 88%  
352 0.8% 88%  
353 7% 87%  
354 0.9% 80%  
355 6% 79%  
356 2% 73%  
357 0.5% 71%  
358 5% 70%  
359 0.4% 66%  
360 2% 65%  
361 5% 63%  
362 1.3% 59%  
363 0.2% 58%  
364 7% 57%  
365 0.3% 50%  
366 1.0% 50% Median
367 1.1% 49%  
368 0.6% 48%  
369 0.2% 48%  
370 0.7% 47%  
371 3% 47%  
372 4% 44%  
373 4% 40%  
374 2% 36%  
375 0.5% 35%  
376 11% 34%  
377 2% 24%  
378 0.2% 22%  
379 0.8% 21%  
380 1.0% 21%  
381 1.1% 20%  
382 2% 18%  
383 3% 16%  
384 1.2% 13%  
385 2% 12%  
386 0.7% 10%  
387 0.5% 10%  
388 4% 9%  
389 0.3% 5%  
390 0.4% 5%  
391 0.3% 4%  
392 0.4% 4%  
393 1.5% 4%  
394 0.9% 2%  
395 0% 1.1%  
396 0.1% 1.1%  
397 0.1% 0.9%  
398 0% 0.9%  
399 0.4% 0.9%  
400 0% 0.4%  
401 0% 0.4%  
402 0.1% 0.4%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0.1% 99.8%  
134 0.1% 99.7%  
135 0.1% 99.6%  
136 0.1% 99.5%  
137 0.5% 99.5%  
138 0.2% 98.9%  
139 0.3% 98.7%  
140 1.4% 98%  
141 0.7% 97%  
142 0.3% 96%  
143 1.1% 96%  
144 3% 95%  
145 2% 92%  
146 3% 90%  
147 0.9% 87%  
148 0.5% 86%  
149 2% 86%  
150 0.7% 84%  
151 2% 84%  
152 4% 82%  
153 13% 77%  
154 1.3% 65%  
155 0.2% 63%  
156 0.2% 63%  
157 1.4% 63%  
158 2% 62%  
159 3% 60%  
160 4% 57%  
161 1.0% 53%  
162 0.5% 52%  
163 0.3% 52%  
164 0.5% 51%  
165 4% 51% Median
166 0.6% 46%  
167 0.2% 46%  
168 0.6% 46%  
169 2% 45%  
170 3% 43%  
171 5% 40%  
172 7% 35%  
173 0.5% 28%  
174 0.3% 28%  
175 7% 27%  
176 1.0% 20%  
177 1.0% 19%  
178 10% 18%  
179 0.9% 8%  
180 0.3% 7%  
181 1.2% 7%  
182 4% 6%  
183 0.4% 2%  
184 1.0% 2%  
185 0.3% 0.6%  
186 0% 0.3%  
187 0% 0.3%  
188 0% 0.3%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0.1% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.8% 99.9%  
35 0.2% 99.1%  
36 1.3% 99.0%  
37 2% 98%  
38 4% 95%  
39 0.4% 91%  
40 5% 91%  
41 3% 86%  
42 2% 83%  
43 4% 81%  
44 14% 76%  
45 2% 63%  
46 9% 61%  
47 0.4% 52%  
48 32% 51% Median
49 16% 20%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0% 1.0%  
52 0.5% 0.9%  
53 0% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 18%  
2 2% 5%  
3 2% 3%  
4 0.8% 0.9%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0% 99.7%  
50 2% 99.7%  
51 10% 98%  
52 9% 88%  
53 5% 79%  
54 69% 74% Median
55 5% 5%  
56 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 82% 100% Last Result, Median
2 12% 18%  
3 6% 6%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 61% 100% Median
1 0.1% 39%  
2 0.1% 39%  
3 33% 39%  
4 5% 5% Last Result
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 420 100% 404–442 401–445 401–447 398–456
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 420 100% 401–440 401–442 400–447 396–453
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 410 100% 395–428 395–432 393–435 390–440
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 410 100% 395–428 395–432 393–435 390–440
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 366 100% 350–388 347–391 347–394 344–402
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 366 100% 348–386 347–389 346–393 343–399
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 366 100% 347–386 347–388 346–393 342–399
Conservative Party 317 366 100% 347–386 347–388 346–393 342–399
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 314 266 0% 246–284 243–285 239–286 233–289
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 264 0% 244–283 242–284 237–285 232–288
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 263 0% 243–280 240–284 236–284 229–287
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 220 0% 201–235 198–236 195–237 190–240
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 218 0% 199–232 196–236 194–236 189–238
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 210 0% 190–229 188–230 183–231 178–234
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 209 0% 189–226 186–230 182–230 175–233
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 209 0% 189–226 186–230 182–230 175–233
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 168 0% 148–181 144–182 143–183 138–186
Labour Party – Change UK 262 165 0% 146–178 143–182 140–182 136–185
Labour Party 262 165 0% 146–178 143–182 140–182 136–185

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100% Last Result
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0.1% 100%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0% 99.9%  
393 0.1% 99.8%  
394 0% 99.8%  
395 0% 99.8%  
396 0% 99.7%  
397 0.2% 99.7%  
398 1.0% 99.6%  
399 0.3% 98.5%  
400 0.7% 98%  
401 4% 98%  
402 0.2% 94%  
403 0.8% 94%  
404 4% 93%  
405 0.4% 89%  
406 1.1% 89%  
407 11% 88%  
408 0.7% 76%  
409 0.7% 76%  
410 0.5% 75%  
411 1.1% 74%  
412 5% 73%  
413 3% 68%  
414 1.2% 65%  
415 8% 64%  
416 0.3% 57%  
417 5% 56%  
418 0.6% 52%  
419 0.5% 51%  
420 0.8% 51% Median
421 1.3% 50%  
422 1.1% 48%  
423 0.6% 47%  
424 0.6% 47%  
425 1.2% 46%  
426 0.3% 45%  
427 4% 45%  
428 1.0% 41%  
429 0.8% 40%  
430 14% 39%  
431 1.1% 25%  
432 1.1% 24%  
433 1.1% 23%  
434 1.3% 22%  
435 2% 20%  
436 2% 19%  
437 2% 17%  
438 0.6% 15%  
439 0.2% 14%  
440 2% 14%  
441 2% 12%  
442 2% 10%  
443 1.0% 8%  
444 0.2% 7%  
445 3% 7%  
446 0.4% 4%  
447 1.4% 4%  
448 0.8% 2%  
449 0.1% 2%  
450 0.3% 2%  
451 0.4% 1.3%  
452 0.1% 0.9%  
453 0.1% 0.9%  
454 0.1% 0.8%  
455 0% 0.7%  
456 0.4% 0.7%  
457 0% 0.2%  
458 0.1% 0.2%  
459 0.1% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100% Last Result
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0.1% 99.9%  
391 0% 99.8%  
392 0% 99.8%  
393 0% 99.8%  
394 0% 99.8%  
395 0.2% 99.7%  
396 0.1% 99.5%  
397 0.2% 99.5%  
398 1.3% 99.2%  
399 0.2% 98%  
400 1.3% 98%  
401 7% 96%  
402 0.1% 89%  
403 0.7% 89%  
404 0.5% 89%  
405 0.8% 88%  
406 0.6% 87%  
407 11% 87%  
408 1.2% 75%  
409 0.8% 74%  
410 2% 73%  
411 0.5% 71%  
412 5% 70%  
413 1.4% 66%  
414 6% 64%  
415 7% 59%  
416 0.4% 51%  
417 0.2% 51%  
418 0.3% 51%  
419 0.4% 50%  
420 1.0% 50% Median
421 1.5% 49%  
422 1.1% 48%  
423 0.6% 47%  
424 0.9% 46%  
425 1.3% 45%  
426 1.1% 44%  
427 7% 43%  
428 2% 36%  
429 0.9% 34%  
430 11% 34%  
431 1.3% 23%  
432 1.5% 22%  
433 1.5% 20%  
434 0.8% 19%  
435 1.0% 18%  
436 2% 17%  
437 3% 15%  
438 1.1% 12%  
439 0.6% 11%  
440 0.8% 11%  
441 0.7% 10%  
442 5% 9%  
443 0.3% 4%  
444 0.7% 4%  
445 0.2% 3%  
446 0.1% 3%  
447 0.9% 3%  
448 1.1% 2%  
449 0% 1.1%  
450 0.1% 1.0%  
451 0.1% 0.9%  
452 0% 0.8%  
453 0.4% 0.8%  
454 0.1% 0.4%  
455 0% 0.3%  
456 0.1% 0.3%  
457 0% 0.2%  
458 0.1% 0.2%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.8%  
387 0% 99.8%  
388 0.1% 99.8%  
389 0.1% 99.7%  
390 0.2% 99.6%  
391 0.1% 99.4%  
392 0.5% 99.3%  
393 1.5% 98.8%  
394 0.7% 97%  
395 8% 97%  
396 1.3% 89%  
397 0.6% 88%  
398 1.4% 87%  
399 1.3% 86%  
400 1.2% 84%  
401 6% 83%  
402 7% 78%  
403 0.2% 71%  
404 3% 70%  
405 0.3% 68%  
406 5% 67%  
407 0.2% 63%  
408 8% 62%  
409 0.7% 55%  
410 5% 54%  
411 0.5% 49%  
412 0.4% 49%  
413 0.8% 48%  
414 1.3% 47% Median
415 5% 46%  
416 0.3% 41%  
417 0.8% 40%  
418 0.9% 40%  
419 2% 39%  
420 1.4% 37%  
421 3% 35%  
422 2% 32%  
423 1.4% 30%  
424 12% 29%  
425 2% 17%  
426 0.8% 15%  
427 2% 14%  
428 3% 13%  
429 0.6% 10%  
430 0.9% 9%  
431 2% 8%  
432 2% 6%  
433 0.9% 4%  
434 0.5% 3%  
435 0.5% 3%  
436 0% 2%  
437 2% 2%  
438 0% 0.6%  
439 0.1% 0.6%  
440 0.2% 0.5%  
441 0.1% 0.4%  
442 0% 0.3%  
443 0.1% 0.2%  
444 0.1% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.8%  
387 0% 99.8%  
388 0.1% 99.8%  
389 0.1% 99.7%  
390 0.2% 99.6%  
391 0.1% 99.4%  
392 0.5% 99.3%  
393 1.5% 98.8%  
394 0.7% 97%  
395 8% 97%  
396 1.3% 89%  
397 0.6% 88%  
398 1.4% 87%  
399 1.3% 86%  
400 1.2% 84%  
401 6% 83%  
402 7% 78%  
403 0.2% 71%  
404 3% 70%  
405 0.3% 68%  
406 5% 67%  
407 0.2% 63%  
408 8% 62%  
409 0.7% 55%  
410 5% 54%  
411 0.5% 49%  
412 0.4% 49%  
413 0.8% 48%  
414 1.3% 47% Median
415 5% 46%  
416 0.3% 41%  
417 0.8% 40%  
418 0.9% 40%  
419 2% 39%  
420 1.4% 37%  
421 3% 35%  
422 2% 32%  
423 1.4% 30%  
424 12% 29%  
425 2% 17%  
426 0.8% 15%  
427 2% 14%  
428 3% 13%  
429 0.6% 10%  
430 0.9% 9%  
431 2% 8%  
432 2% 6%  
433 0.9% 4%  
434 0.5% 3%  
435 0.5% 3%  
436 0% 2%  
437 2% 2%  
438 0% 0.6%  
439 0.1% 0.6%  
440 0.2% 0.5%  
441 0.1% 0.4%  
442 0% 0.3%  
443 0.1% 0.2%  
444 0.1% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
321 0% 100% Last Result
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0% 99.8%  
343 0.2% 99.7%  
344 1.0% 99.6%  
345 0.3% 98.6%  
346 0.7% 98%  
347 3% 98%  
348 0.3% 94%  
349 0.8% 94%  
350 4% 93%  
351 0.2% 89%  
352 1.1% 89%  
353 7% 88%  
354 0.8% 81%  
355 5% 81%  
356 0.6% 75%  
357 0.7% 75%  
358 5% 74%  
359 2% 68%  
360 1.4% 66%  
361 0.6% 65%  
362 1.1% 64%  
363 0.7% 63%  
364 11% 62%  
365 0.6% 51%  
366 0.8% 51% Median
367 0.8% 50%  
368 0.5% 49%  
369 0.2% 48%  
370 0.6% 48%  
371 3% 48%  
372 3% 45%  
373 0.8% 42%  
374 1.0% 42%  
375 0.9% 41%  
376 14% 40%  
377 1.3% 25%  
378 0.4% 24%  
379 0.6% 23%  
380 2% 23%  
381 0.7% 21%  
382 2% 20%  
383 3% 18%  
384 0.7% 16%  
385 0.4% 15%  
386 2% 14%  
387 1.4% 13%  
388 3% 11%  
389 0.8% 9%  
390 0.3% 8%  
391 3% 8%  
392 0.6% 5%  
393 1.3% 4%  
394 0.6% 3%  
395 0.2% 2%  
396 0.7% 2%  
397 0.4% 1.4%  
398 0% 1.0%  
399 0.1% 1.0%  
400 0% 0.9%  
401 0.1% 0.8%  
402 0.5% 0.8%  
403 0% 0.3%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0.1% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0.2% 99.7%  
342 0.1% 99.6%  
343 0.2% 99.5%  
344 1.2% 99.3%  
345 0.2% 98%  
346 1.2% 98%  
347 4% 97%  
348 4% 93%  
349 0.5% 89%  
350 0.4% 89%  
351 0.5% 88%  
352 0.7% 88%  
353 7% 87%  
354 0.8% 81%  
355 6% 80%  
356 2% 73%  
357 0.5% 71%  
358 5% 71%  
359 0.5% 66%  
360 1.1% 65%  
361 4% 64%  
362 1.4% 60%  
363 0.8% 59%  
364 7% 58%  
365 0.2% 51%  
366 0.7% 51% Median
367 0.6% 50%  
368 0.6% 49%  
369 0.2% 49%  
370 2% 48%  
371 3% 47%  
372 4% 44%  
373 1.3% 41%  
374 4% 39%  
375 0.9% 35%  
376 11% 35%  
377 2% 24%  
378 0.5% 22%  
379 0.7% 22%  
380 0.5% 21%  
381 2% 20%  
382 2% 19%  
383 3% 17%  
384 1.3% 14%  
385 0.8% 13%  
386 2% 12%  
387 0.4% 10%  
388 4% 9%  
389 0.5% 5%  
390 0.3% 5%  
391 0.5% 4%  
392 0.1% 4%  
393 2% 4%  
394 1.1% 2%  
395 0.1% 1.2%  
396 0.1% 1.1%  
397 0.1% 1.0%  
398 0% 0.9%  
399 0.4% 0.9%  
400 0% 0.5%  
401 0% 0.4%  
402 0.1% 0.4%  
403 0.1% 0.3%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0.2% 99.7%  
342 0.1% 99.5%  
343 0.2% 99.5%  
344 1.2% 99.3%  
345 0.2% 98%  
346 1.3% 98%  
347 7% 96%  
348 0.3% 90%  
349 0.5% 89%  
350 0.5% 89%  
351 0.5% 88%  
352 0.8% 88%  
353 7% 87%  
354 0.9% 80%  
355 6% 79%  
356 2% 73%  
357 0.5% 71%  
358 5% 70%  
359 0.4% 66%  
360 2% 65%  
361 5% 63%  
362 1.3% 59%  
363 0.2% 58%  
364 7% 57%  
365 0.3% 50%  
366 1.0% 50% Median
367 1.1% 49%  
368 0.6% 48%  
369 0.2% 48%  
370 0.7% 47%  
371 3% 47%  
372 4% 44%  
373 4% 40%  
374 2% 36%  
375 0.5% 35%  
376 11% 34%  
377 2% 24%  
378 0.2% 22%  
379 0.8% 21%  
380 1.0% 21%  
381 1.1% 20%  
382 2% 18%  
383 3% 16%  
384 1.2% 13%  
385 2% 12%  
386 0.7% 10%  
387 0.5% 10%  
388 4% 9%  
389 0.3% 5%  
390 0.4% 5%  
391 0.3% 4%  
392 0.4% 4%  
393 1.5% 4%  
394 0.9% 2%  
395 0% 1.1%  
396 0.1% 1.1%  
397 0.1% 0.9%  
398 0% 0.9%  
399 0.4% 0.9%  
400 0% 0.4%  
401 0% 0.4%  
402 0.1% 0.4%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0.2% 99.7%  
342 0.1% 99.5%  
343 0.2% 99.5%  
344 1.2% 99.3%  
345 0.2% 98%  
346 1.3% 98%  
347 7% 96%  
348 0.3% 90%  
349 0.5% 89%  
350 0.5% 89%  
351 0.5% 88%  
352 0.8% 88%  
353 7% 87%  
354 0.9% 80%  
355 6% 79%  
356 2% 73%  
357 0.5% 71%  
358 5% 70%  
359 0.4% 66%  
360 2% 65%  
361 5% 63%  
362 1.3% 59%  
363 0.2% 58%  
364 7% 57%  
365 0.3% 50%  
366 1.0% 50% Median
367 1.1% 49%  
368 0.6% 48%  
369 0.2% 48%  
370 0.7% 47%  
371 3% 47%  
372 4% 44%  
373 4% 40%  
374 2% 36%  
375 0.5% 35%  
376 11% 34%  
377 2% 24%  
378 0.2% 22%  
379 0.8% 21%  
380 1.0% 21%  
381 1.1% 20%  
382 2% 18%  
383 3% 16%  
384 1.2% 13%  
385 2% 12%  
386 0.7% 10%  
387 0.5% 10%  
388 4% 9%  
389 0.3% 5%  
390 0.4% 5%  
391 0.3% 4%  
392 0.4% 4%  
393 1.5% 4%  
394 0.9% 2%  
395 0% 1.1%  
396 0.1% 1.1%  
397 0.1% 0.9%  
398 0% 0.9%  
399 0.4% 0.9%  
400 0% 0.4%  
401 0% 0.4%  
402 0.1% 0.4%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.8%  
230 0.1% 99.7%  
231 0% 99.6%  
232 0% 99.6%  
233 0.4% 99.5%  
234 0% 99.1%  
235 0.1% 99.1%  
236 0.1% 99.0%  
237 0.1% 98.9%  
238 1.1% 98.8%  
239 2% 98%  
240 0.1% 96%  
241 0.5% 96%  
242 0.3% 96%  
243 0.5% 95%  
244 4% 95%  
245 0.4% 91%  
246 2% 90%  
247 0.8% 88%  
248 1.3% 87%  
249 3% 86%  
250 2% 83%  
251 2% 81%  
252 0.5% 80%  
253 0.7% 79%  
254 0.5% 78%  
255 2% 78%  
256 11% 76%  
257 0.9% 65%  
258 4% 65%  
259 1.3% 61%  
260 4% 59%  
261 3% 56%  
262 2% 53%  
263 0.2% 52%  
264 0.6% 51%  
265 0.6% 51%  
266 0.7% 50%  
267 0.2% 49%  
268 7% 49% Median
269 0.8% 42%  
270 1.4% 41%  
271 4% 40%  
272 1.1% 36%  
273 0.5% 35%  
274 5% 34%  
275 0.5% 29%  
276 2% 29%  
277 6% 27%  
278 0.8% 20%  
279 7% 19%  
280 0.7% 13%  
281 0.5% 12%  
282 0.4% 12%  
283 0.5% 11%  
284 4% 11%  
285 4% 7%  
286 1.2% 3%  
287 0.2% 2%  
288 1.2% 2%  
289 0.2% 0.7%  
290 0.1% 0.5%  
291 0.2% 0.4%  
292 0% 0.3%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0.1% 0.2%  
295 0.1% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.7%  
229 0.1% 99.7%  
230 0% 99.6%  
231 0.1% 99.6%  
232 0.4% 99.5%  
233 0% 99.1%  
234 0.1% 99.1%  
235 0.3% 99.0%  
236 0.8% 98.7%  
237 1.0% 98%  
238 0.8% 97%  
239 0.1% 96%  
240 0.6% 96%  
241 0.3% 95%  
242 0.6% 95%  
243 4% 95%  
244 0.3% 90%  
245 2% 90%  
246 1.3% 88%  
247 2% 87%  
248 3% 84%  
249 1.1% 82%  
250 1.0% 81%  
251 0.7% 80%  
252 1.2% 79%  
253 0.5% 78%  
254 1.5% 77%  
255 11% 76%  
256 2% 65%  
257 3% 63%  
258 4% 60%  
259 0.2% 56%  
260 3% 56%  
261 2% 53%  
262 0.7% 52%  
263 0.5% 51%  
264 0.5% 50%  
265 0.6% 50%  
266 0.4% 49%  
267 7% 49% Median
268 2% 42%  
269 0.4% 40%  
270 4% 40%  
271 0.9% 35%  
272 0.6% 34%  
273 5% 34%  
274 0.4% 29%  
275 3% 29%  
276 6% 26%  
277 0.8% 20%  
278 7% 19%  
279 1.1% 13%  
280 0.3% 12%  
281 0.4% 11%  
282 0.3% 11%  
283 3% 11%  
284 4% 7%  
285 0.6% 3%  
286 0.2% 2%  
287 1.4% 2%  
288 0.1% 0.5%  
289 0.2% 0.4%  
290 0% 0.3%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.2%  
293 0.1% 0.2%  
294 0.1% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.7%  
229 0.5% 99.6%  
230 0% 99.1%  
231 0% 99.1%  
232 0% 99.0%  
233 0.1% 99.0%  
234 0.5% 98.9%  
235 0.8% 98%  
236 0.9% 98%  
237 0.9% 97%  
238 0.4% 96%  
239 0.5% 96%  
240 3% 95%  
241 0.8% 92%  
242 1.2% 91%  
243 3% 90%  
244 1.1% 88%  
245 2% 87%  
246 1.1% 85%  
247 3% 84%  
248 2% 81%  
249 1.1% 80%  
250 0.4% 79%  
251 2% 78%  
252 1.0% 77%  
253 2% 76%  
254 4% 74%  
255 11% 70%  
256 0.6% 59%  
257 0.5% 59%  
258 3% 58%  
259 0.2% 55%  
260 2% 55%  
261 1.4% 52%  
262 0.6% 51%  
263 0.9% 50%  
264 0.4% 49%  
265 0.8% 49%  
266 0.3% 48%  
267 11% 48% Median
268 1.1% 37%  
269 0.4% 35%  
270 0.5% 35%  
271 1.0% 35%  
272 2% 34%  
273 6% 31%  
274 0.6% 26%  
275 1.1% 25%  
276 5% 24%  
277 0.2% 19%  
278 7% 18%  
279 0.8% 12%  
280 4% 11%  
281 1.0% 7%  
282 0.3% 6%  
283 0.2% 6%  
284 4% 6%  
285 0.7% 2%  
286 0.1% 1.5%  
287 1.1% 1.3%  
288 0% 0.3%  
289 0% 0.3%  
290 0.1% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0.1% 0.1%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
183 0% 100%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0.1% 99.9%  
188 0.1% 99.8%  
189 0.1% 99.7%  
190 0.1% 99.6%  
191 0.1% 99.5%  
192 0% 99.4%  
193 0.2% 99.3%  
194 1.3% 99.1%  
195 0.3% 98%  
196 0.4% 97%  
197 0.7% 97%  
198 2% 96%  
199 3% 94%  
200 0.7% 92%  
201 1.0% 91%  
202 0.7% 90%  
203 3% 89%  
204 2% 86%  
205 1.0% 85%  
206 2% 84%  
207 12% 82%  
208 2% 70%  
209 4% 68%  
210 0.7% 64%  
211 0.5% 63%  
212 2% 63%  
213 2% 60%  
214 1.4% 59%  
215 3% 57%  
216 2% 55%  
217 0.8% 53%  
218 0.9% 52%  
219 0.6% 51% Median
220 1.4% 50%  
221 4% 49%  
222 0.4% 45%  
223 7% 45%  
224 0.5% 37%  
225 5% 37%  
226 0.3% 32%  
227 3% 32%  
228 0.7% 29%  
229 7% 28%  
230 5% 21%  
231 1.5% 16%  
232 0.6% 14%  
233 2% 14%  
234 0.1% 12%  
235 6% 12%  
236 4% 6%  
237 0.3% 3%  
238 1.3% 2%  
239 0.3% 0.9%  
240 0.2% 0.6%  
241 0.1% 0.4%  
242 0.1% 0.3%  
243 0.1% 0.2%  
244 0% 0.2%  
245 0.1% 0.2%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
182 0% 100%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0.1% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.8%  
187 0.1% 99.8%  
188 0.1% 99.6%  
189 0.1% 99.5%  
190 0.2% 99.5%  
191 1.0% 99.3%  
192 0.1% 98%  
193 0.4% 98%  
194 1.0% 98%  
195 0.8% 97%  
196 1.0% 96%  
197 1.2% 95%  
198 2% 94%  
199 2% 92%  
200 3% 90%  
201 0.4% 87%  
202 0.4% 86%  
203 2% 86%  
204 2% 84%  
205 2% 82%  
206 4% 80%  
207 11% 75%  
208 0.5% 64%  
209 0.6% 63%  
210 0.4% 63%  
211 1.4% 63%  
212 3% 61%  
213 3% 59%  
214 0.9% 56%  
215 3% 55%  
216 0.8% 52%  
217 0.3% 51%  
218 5% 51%  
219 0.5% 46% Median
220 2% 46%  
221 0.2% 44%  
222 0.2% 44%  
223 7% 44%  
224 3% 37%  
225 5% 33%  
226 0.2% 28%  
227 0.6% 28%  
228 0.6% 27%  
229 7% 27%  
230 6% 20%  
231 1.0% 14%  
232 5% 13%  
233 1.0% 8%  
234 0.2% 7%  
235 1.1% 7%  
236 4% 6%  
237 0.2% 2%  
238 1.3% 2%  
239 0.1% 0.4%  
240 0% 0.3%  
241 0% 0.3%  
242 0% 0.2%  
243 0.1% 0.2%  
244 0% 0.2%  
245 0.1% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0.1% 99.9%  
174 0% 99.8%  
175 0.1% 99.8%  
176 0.1% 99.7%  
177 0% 99.6%  
178 0.5% 99.6%  
179 0% 99.1%  
180 0.2% 99.1%  
181 0.1% 98.9%  
182 0.8% 98.7%  
183 1.0% 98%  
184 0.2% 97%  
185 0.2% 97%  
186 0.4% 97%  
187 0.5% 96%  
188 0.7% 96%  
189 4% 95%  
190 0.6% 91%  
191 1.0% 90%  
192 1.0% 89%  
193 3% 88%  
194 2% 84%  
195 0.5% 83%  
196 0.5% 82%  
197 2% 82%  
198 2% 80%  
199 0.7% 78%  
200 1.2% 77%  
201 10% 76%  
202 3% 66%  
203 6% 63%  
204 1.0% 57%  
205 0.3% 56%  
206 1.2% 56%  
207 2% 55%  
208 1.1% 53%  
209 1.1% 52%  
210 0.9% 51%  
211 0.6% 50%  
212 0.4% 49%  
213 0.5% 49% Median
214 0.9% 48%  
215 0.4% 48%  
216 7% 47%  
217 6% 40%  
218 0.6% 35%  
219 5% 34%  
220 0.7% 29%  
221 2% 29%  
222 0.8% 26%  
223 0.9% 25%  
224 11% 25%  
225 0.9% 13%  
226 0.7% 12%  
227 0.4% 11%  
228 0.4% 11%  
229 4% 11%  
230 4% 7%  
231 0.6% 3%  
232 0.2% 2%  
233 1.4% 2%  
234 0.1% 0.5%  
235 0.2% 0.5%  
236 0% 0.3%  
237 0% 0.3%  
238 0% 0.2%  
239 0.1% 0.2%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0.1% 99.9%  
173 0.1% 99.8%  
174 0% 99.7%  
175 0.4% 99.7%  
176 0.1% 99.2%  
177 0% 99.2%  
178 0.1% 99.1%  
179 0.1% 99.0%  
180 0.6% 99.0%  
181 0.2% 98%  
182 1.0% 98%  
183 0.7% 97%  
184 0.5% 96%  
185 0.5% 96%  
186 3% 96%  
187 0.8% 93%  
188 0.7% 92%  
189 2% 91%  
190 2% 89%  
191 0.7% 86%  
192 0.6% 86%  
193 2% 85%  
194 2% 83%  
195 2% 81%  
196 0.5% 79%  
197 2% 79%  
198 1.1% 77%  
199 2% 76%  
200 4% 74%  
201 11% 70%  
202 0.8% 60%  
203 3% 59%  
204 1.0% 56%  
205 0.2% 55%  
206 1.0% 55%  
207 1.4% 54%  
208 1.1% 52%  
209 1.4% 51%  
210 0.9% 50%  
211 0.8% 49%  
212 0.1% 48%  
213 0.6% 48% Median
214 4% 47%  
215 0.6% 43%  
216 7% 43%  
217 2% 35%  
218 2% 34%  
219 5% 31%  
220 1.3% 26%  
221 0.8% 25%  
222 0.6% 24%  
223 0.1% 24%  
224 12% 24%  
225 0.7% 12%  
226 4% 11%  
227 1.0% 7%  
228 0.1% 6%  
229 0.3% 6%  
230 4% 6%  
231 0.7% 2%  
232 0.1% 1.5%  
233 1.1% 1.4%  
234 0% 0.3%  
235 0% 0.3%  
236 0.1% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.2%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0.1% 99.9%  
173 0.1% 99.8%  
174 0% 99.7%  
175 0.4% 99.7%  
176 0.1% 99.2%  
177 0% 99.2%  
178 0.1% 99.1%  
179 0.1% 99.0%  
180 0.6% 99.0%  
181 0.2% 98%  
182 1.0% 98%  
183 0.7% 97%  
184 0.5% 96%  
185 0.5% 96%  
186 3% 96%  
187 0.8% 93%  
188 0.7% 92%  
189 2% 91%  
190 2% 89%  
191 0.7% 86%  
192 0.6% 86%  
193 2% 85%  
194 2% 83%  
195 2% 81%  
196 0.5% 79%  
197 2% 79%  
198 1.1% 77%  
199 2% 76%  
200 4% 74%  
201 11% 70%  
202 0.8% 60%  
203 3% 59%  
204 1.0% 56%  
205 0.2% 55%  
206 1.0% 55%  
207 1.4% 54%  
208 1.1% 52%  
209 1.4% 51%  
210 0.9% 50%  
211 0.8% 49%  
212 0.1% 48%  
213 0.6% 48% Median
214 4% 47%  
215 0.6% 43%  
216 7% 43%  
217 2% 35%  
218 2% 34%  
219 5% 31%  
220 1.3% 26%  
221 0.8% 25%  
222 0.6% 24%  
223 0.1% 24%  
224 12% 24%  
225 0.7% 12%  
226 4% 11%  
227 1.0% 7%  
228 0.1% 6%  
229 0.3% 6%  
230 4% 6%  
231 0.7% 2%  
232 0.1% 1.5%  
233 1.1% 1.4%  
234 0% 0.3%  
235 0% 0.3%  
236 0.1% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.2%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0.1% 99.9%  
134 0.1% 99.8%  
135 0% 99.7%  
136 0.1% 99.7%  
137 0.1% 99.6%  
138 0.2% 99.5%  
139 0.1% 99.4%  
140 1.0% 99.3%  
141 0.2% 98%  
142 0.3% 98%  
143 1.2% 98%  
144 2% 97%  
145 2% 95%  
146 0.5% 92%  
147 2% 92%  
148 0.3% 90%  
149 3% 90%  
150 1.5% 87%  
151 0.9% 85%  
152 2% 85%  
153 12% 83%  
154 2% 71%  
155 4% 69%  
156 2% 65%  
157 0.3% 63%  
158 1.5% 63%  
159 2% 61%  
160 4% 60%  
161 1.1% 56%  
162 1.4% 55%  
163 0.8% 53%  
164 0.6% 52%  
165 0.8% 52% Median
166 0.4% 51%  
167 0.2% 51%  
168 5% 50%  
169 2% 46%  
170 0.6% 44%  
171 4% 44%  
172 7% 39%  
173 3% 32%  
174 0.7% 29%  
175 7% 28%  
176 0.4% 21%  
177 1.0% 21%  
178 6% 20%  
179 2% 14%  
180 0.2% 12%  
181 6% 12%  
182 4% 6%  
183 0.5% 3%  
184 1.1% 2%  
185 0.5% 1.1%  
186 0.2% 0.6%  
187 0.1% 0.4%  
188 0.1% 0.3%  
189 0% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0.1% 99.8%  
134 0.1% 99.7%  
135 0.1% 99.6%  
136 0.1% 99.5%  
137 0.5% 99.5%  
138 0.2% 98.9%  
139 0.3% 98.7%  
140 1.4% 98%  
141 0.7% 97%  
142 0.3% 96%  
143 1.1% 96%  
144 3% 95%  
145 2% 92%  
146 3% 90%  
147 0.9% 87%  
148 0.5% 86%  
149 2% 86%  
150 0.7% 84%  
151 2% 84%  
152 4% 82%  
153 13% 77%  
154 1.3% 65%  
155 0.2% 63%  
156 0.2% 63%  
157 1.4% 63%  
158 2% 62%  
159 3% 60%  
160 4% 57%  
161 1.0% 53%  
162 0.5% 52%  
163 0.3% 52%  
164 0.5% 51%  
165 4% 51% Median
166 0.6% 46%  
167 0.2% 46%  
168 0.6% 46%  
169 2% 45%  
170 3% 43%  
171 5% 40%  
172 7% 35%  
173 0.5% 28%  
174 0.3% 28%  
175 7% 27%  
176 1.0% 20%  
177 1.0% 19%  
178 10% 18%  
179 0.9% 8%  
180 0.3% 7%  
181 1.2% 7%  
182 4% 6%  
183 0.4% 2%  
184 1.0% 2%  
185 0.3% 0.6%  
186 0% 0.3%  
187 0% 0.3%  
188 0% 0.3%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0.1% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0.1% 99.8%  
134 0.1% 99.7%  
135 0.1% 99.6%  
136 0.1% 99.5%  
137 0.5% 99.5%  
138 0.2% 98.9%  
139 0.3% 98.7%  
140 1.4% 98%  
141 0.7% 97%  
142 0.3% 96%  
143 1.1% 96%  
144 3% 95%  
145 2% 92%  
146 3% 90%  
147 0.9% 87%  
148 0.5% 86%  
149 2% 86%  
150 0.7% 84%  
151 2% 84%  
152 4% 82%  
153 13% 77%  
154 1.3% 65%  
155 0.2% 63%  
156 0.2% 63%  
157 1.4% 63%  
158 2% 62%  
159 3% 60%  
160 4% 57%  
161 1.0% 53%  
162 0.5% 52%  
163 0.3% 52%  
164 0.5% 51%  
165 4% 51% Median
166 0.6% 46%  
167 0.2% 46%  
168 0.6% 46%  
169 2% 45%  
170 3% 43%  
171 5% 40%  
172 7% 35%  
173 0.5% 28%  
174 0.3% 28%  
175 7% 27%  
176 1.0% 20%  
177 1.0% 19%  
178 10% 18%  
179 0.9% 8%  
180 0.3% 7%  
181 1.2% 7%  
182 4% 6%  
183 0.4% 2%  
184 1.0% 2%  
185 0.3% 0.6%  
186 0% 0.3%  
187 0% 0.3%  
188 0% 0.3%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0.1% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations