Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 8–9 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 34.5% 33.0–36.0% 32.5–36.4% 32.2–36.8% 31.5–37.6%
Labour Party 41.0% 21.7% 20.4–23.0% 20.0–23.4% 19.7–23.7% 19.1–24.4%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 19.7% 18.4–21.0% 18.1–21.4% 17.8–21.7% 17.2–22.3%
Brexit Party 0.0% 11.8% 10.8–12.9% 10.6–13.2% 10.3–13.5% 9.9–14.0%
Green Party 1.7% 5.9% 5.2–6.8% 5.0–7.0% 4.9–7.2% 4.6–7.6%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.4%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%
Change UK 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 340 324–368 321–368 316–371 299–382
Labour Party 262 161 137–174 135–178 134–183 124–194
Liberal Democrats 12 69 63–76 61–78 59–80 55–81
Brexit Party 0 1 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–6
Green Party 1 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 2–6
Scottish National Party 35 50 48–54 45–54 39–54 38–54
Plaid Cymru 4 7 4–11 4–12 4–13 4–14
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.7% 99.8%  
300 0.1% 99.1%  
301 0% 99.0%  
302 0% 99.0%  
303 0.1% 98.9%  
304 0.1% 98.9%  
305 0% 98.8%  
306 0% 98.8%  
307 0% 98.8%  
308 0.3% 98.7%  
309 0.1% 98%  
310 0.1% 98%  
311 0% 98%  
312 0.2% 98%  
313 0.3% 98%  
314 0.1% 98%  
315 0.2% 98%  
316 0.1% 98%  
317 0.1% 97% Last Result
318 0.6% 97%  
319 0.2% 97%  
320 1.2% 96%  
321 1.4% 95%  
322 1.2% 94%  
323 2% 93%  
324 6% 91%  
325 0.9% 85%  
326 6% 84% Majority
327 2% 78%  
328 6% 76%  
329 2% 70%  
330 2% 68%  
331 2% 66%  
332 0.6% 64%  
333 3% 63%  
334 7% 61%  
335 0.8% 54%  
336 0.7% 53%  
337 1.0% 53%  
338 1.0% 52%  
339 0.4% 51%  
340 1.3% 50% Median
341 1.2% 49%  
342 1.2% 48%  
343 1.2% 46%  
344 2% 45%  
345 0.5% 43%  
346 2% 43%  
347 5% 41%  
348 1.3% 37%  
349 0.4% 35%  
350 0.7% 35%  
351 0.9% 34%  
352 3% 33%  
353 1.0% 30%  
354 2% 29%  
355 2% 27%  
356 2% 25%  
357 0.6% 23%  
358 1.4% 22%  
359 2% 21%  
360 0.9% 19%  
361 2% 18%  
362 0.3% 16%  
363 1.5% 15%  
364 0.3% 14%  
365 0.5% 13%  
366 0.1% 13%  
367 0.8% 13%  
368 8% 12%  
369 0.4% 4%  
370 1.5% 4%  
371 0.8% 3%  
372 0.3% 2%  
373 0.2% 1.4%  
374 0.2% 1.2%  
375 0.1% 1.1%  
376 0.3% 1.0%  
377 0.1% 0.7%  
378 0% 0.6%  
379 0% 0.6%  
380 0% 0.6%  
381 0% 0.6%  
382 0% 0.5%  
383 0% 0.5%  
384 0% 0.4%  
385 0.1% 0.4%  
386 0% 0.3%  
387 0% 0.3%  
388 0.2% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0.2% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.8%  
120 0% 99.7%  
121 0.1% 99.7%  
122 0% 99.6%  
123 0% 99.6%  
124 0.2% 99.6%  
125 0.1% 99.3%  
126 0.1% 99.3%  
127 0% 99.2%  
128 0% 99.2%  
129 0.2% 99.1%  
130 0.1% 98.9%  
131 0.6% 98.8%  
132 0.4% 98%  
133 0.2% 98%  
134 0.7% 98%  
135 6% 97%  
136 0.6% 91%  
137 0.2% 90%  
138 0.3% 90%  
139 2% 90%  
140 2% 88%  
141 0.3% 86%  
142 2% 86%  
143 0.2% 84%  
144 3% 84%  
145 3% 81%  
146 2% 78%  
147 1.0% 76%  
148 0.3% 75%  
149 5% 75%  
150 4% 70%  
151 2% 66%  
152 0.3% 63%  
153 0.4% 63%  
154 3% 63%  
155 0.6% 60%  
156 0.2% 59%  
157 2% 59%  
158 3% 58%  
159 2% 55%  
160 0.4% 52%  
161 3% 52% Median
162 0.5% 49%  
163 2% 48%  
164 5% 46%  
165 1.3% 42%  
166 1.3% 40%  
167 4% 39%  
168 6% 36%  
169 2% 30%  
170 7% 28%  
171 3% 21%  
172 3% 18%  
173 4% 15%  
174 1.4% 11%  
175 2% 9%  
176 0.8% 7%  
177 0.6% 7%  
178 2% 6%  
179 0.2% 4%  
180 0.2% 4%  
181 0.1% 4%  
182 0.8% 4%  
183 0.7% 3%  
184 0% 2%  
185 0.2% 2%  
186 0.3% 2%  
187 0% 2%  
188 0.2% 2%  
189 0.1% 1.3%  
190 0% 1.2%  
191 0% 1.2%  
192 0% 1.2%  
193 0% 1.2%  
194 0.8% 1.1%  
195 0% 0.3%  
196 0% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.3%  
198 0% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0% 99.8%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.4% 99.7%  
56 0.1% 99.3%  
57 0.3% 99.2%  
58 0.8% 98.9%  
59 1.0% 98%  
60 1.5% 97%  
61 3% 96%  
62 2% 92%  
63 13% 90%  
64 5% 77%  
65 5% 72%  
66 4% 67%  
67 4% 63%  
68 5% 59%  
69 11% 54% Median
70 4% 42%  
71 3% 39%  
72 5% 36%  
73 3% 31%  
74 6% 28%  
75 9% 22%  
76 2% 12%  
77 0.3% 10%  
78 5% 10%  
79 2% 5%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.6% 0.6%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100% Last Result
1 21% 67% Median
2 17% 45%  
3 15% 29%  
4 11% 14%  
5 1.1% 3%  
6 1.3% 2%  
7 0.2% 0.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 1.0% 100%  
3 16% 99.0%  
4 79% 83% Median
5 3% 4%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.9% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.0%  
40 0.5% 97%  
41 0.1% 97%  
42 0.1% 97%  
43 1.2% 97%  
44 0.2% 95%  
45 1.0% 95%  
46 1.4% 94%  
47 0.6% 93%  
48 25% 92%  
49 16% 67%  
50 4% 51% Median
51 4% 47%  
52 14% 43%  
53 3% 29%  
54 26% 26%  
55 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 36% 99.9% Last Result
5 5% 64%  
6 0.3% 59%  
7 30% 59% Median
8 0.9% 29%  
9 6% 28%  
10 3% 22%  
11 10% 19%  
12 5% 8%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.7% 0.9%  
15 0% 0.2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 410 100% 393–431 391–434 385–437 376–444
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 410 100% 393–431 391–434 385–437 376–444
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 397 100% 380–424 378–429 374–429 354–440
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 389 100% 373–416 372–422 367–422 350–430
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 346 96% 331–374 327–375 324–378 303–390
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 341 88% 325–369 323–370 318–372 301–384
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 340 84% 324–368 321–368 316–371 299–382
Conservative Party 317 340 84% 324–368 321–368 316–371 299–382
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 314 291 1.2% 263–307 262–309 260–314 248–331
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 288 1.0% 259–303 258–305 256–310 245–327
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 279 0.1% 252–295 252–300 248–302 238–323
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 238 0% 210–254 205–255 205–259 196–276
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 231 0% 203–247 198–250 198–253 187–272
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 231 0% 203–247 198–250 198–253 187–272
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 218 0% 196–233 192–236 190–242 182–249
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 212 0% 189–226 186–229 184–234 175–245
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 169 0% 144–182 142–185 141–192 132–199
Labour Party – Change UK 262 161 0% 137–174 135–178 134–183 124–194
Labour Party 262 161 0% 137–174 135–178 134–183 124–194

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.8%  
371 0.1% 99.8%  
372 0% 99.7%  
373 0% 99.7%  
374 0.1% 99.6%  
375 0% 99.5%  
376 0.1% 99.5%  
377 0.7% 99.5%  
378 0.2% 98.8%  
379 0.1% 98.6%  
380 0% 98%  
381 0.1% 98%  
382 0% 98%  
383 0.1% 98%  
384 0.2% 98%  
385 1.2% 98%  
386 0.4% 97%  
387 0.1% 96%  
388 0.4% 96%  
389 0.2% 96%  
390 0.4% 96%  
391 2% 95%  
392 2% 94%  
393 2% 91%  
394 2% 90%  
395 1.3% 88%  
396 2% 87%  
397 3% 85%  
398 5% 82%  
399 0.3% 77%  
400 0.7% 76%  
401 5% 76%  
402 1.3% 70%  
403 11% 69%  
404 3% 58%  
405 0.2% 54%  
406 2% 54%  
407 0.8% 52%  
408 0.5% 52%  
409 0.9% 51% Median
410 0.3% 50%  
411 6% 50%  
412 3% 43%  
413 0.6% 40%  
414 0.4% 40%  
415 2% 39%  
416 4% 37%  
417 0.2% 33%  
418 2% 33%  
419 0.4% 32%  
420 0.6% 31%  
421 2% 31%  
422 1.4% 29%  
423 2% 28%  
424 2% 26%  
425 1.1% 23%  
426 3% 22%  
427 1.1% 19%  
428 2% 18%  
429 0.8% 16%  
430 0.4% 15%  
431 6% 15%  
432 0.6% 9%  
433 3% 8%  
434 2% 6%  
435 0.4% 3%  
436 0.3% 3%  
437 0.9% 3%  
438 0.2% 2%  
439 0.5% 2%  
440 0.1% 1.1%  
441 0.2% 1.0%  
442 0.2% 0.8%  
443 0% 0.6%  
444 0% 0.5%  
445 0% 0.5%  
446 0.1% 0.5%  
447 0% 0.4%  
448 0% 0.3%  
449 0% 0.3%  
450 0% 0.3%  
451 0.2% 0.3%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.8%  
371 0.1% 99.8%  
372 0% 99.7%  
373 0% 99.7%  
374 0.1% 99.6%  
375 0% 99.5%  
376 0.1% 99.5%  
377 0.7% 99.5%  
378 0.2% 98.8%  
379 0.1% 98.6%  
380 0% 98%  
381 0.1% 98%  
382 0% 98%  
383 0.1% 98%  
384 0.2% 98%  
385 1.2% 98%  
386 0.4% 97%  
387 0.1% 96%  
388 0.4% 96%  
389 0.2% 96%  
390 0.4% 96%  
391 2% 95%  
392 2% 94%  
393 2% 91%  
394 2% 90%  
395 1.3% 88%  
396 2% 87%  
397 3% 85%  
398 5% 82%  
399 0.3% 77%  
400 0.7% 76%  
401 5% 76%  
402 1.3% 70%  
403 11% 69%  
404 3% 58%  
405 0.2% 54%  
406 2% 54%  
407 0.8% 52%  
408 0.5% 52%  
409 0.9% 51% Median
410 0.3% 50%  
411 6% 50%  
412 3% 43%  
413 0.6% 40%  
414 0.4% 40%  
415 2% 39%  
416 4% 37%  
417 0.2% 33%  
418 2% 33%  
419 0.4% 32%  
420 0.6% 31%  
421 2% 31%  
422 1.4% 29%  
423 2% 28%  
424 2% 26%  
425 1.1% 23%  
426 3% 22%  
427 1.1% 19%  
428 2% 18%  
429 0.8% 16%  
430 0.4% 15%  
431 6% 15%  
432 0.6% 9%  
433 3% 8%  
434 2% 6%  
435 0.4% 3%  
436 0.3% 3%  
437 0.9% 3%  
438 0.2% 2%  
439 0.5% 2%  
440 0.1% 1.1%  
441 0.2% 1.0%  
442 0.2% 0.8%  
443 0% 0.6%  
444 0% 0.5%  
445 0% 0.5%  
446 0.1% 0.5%  
447 0% 0.4%  
448 0% 0.3%  
449 0% 0.3%  
450 0% 0.3%  
451 0.2% 0.3%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0.7% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.2%  
356 0% 99.2% Last Result
357 0% 99.2%  
358 0% 99.2%  
359 0% 99.1%  
360 0.1% 99.1%  
361 0% 99.0%  
362 0% 99.0%  
363 0.3% 98.9%  
364 0.2% 98.6%  
365 0% 98%  
366 0% 98%  
367 0.1% 98%  
368 0% 98%  
369 0% 98%  
370 0.1% 98%  
371 0.1% 98%  
372 0% 98%  
373 0.2% 98%  
374 0.4% 98%  
375 0% 97%  
376 0.1% 97%  
377 2% 97%  
378 1.1% 95%  
379 4% 94%  
380 1.0% 90%  
381 0.2% 89%  
382 3% 89%  
383 1.0% 86%  
384 6% 85%  
385 7% 79%  
386 6% 72%  
387 1.0% 66%  
388 2% 65%  
389 5% 63%  
390 2% 58%  
391 1.0% 56%  
392 0.7% 55%  
393 3% 55%  
394 0.8% 52%  
395 0.3% 51%  
396 0.6% 51%  
397 0.7% 50% Median
398 0.8% 49%  
399 3% 49%  
400 2% 46%  
401 0.7% 44%  
402 0.8% 43%  
403 0.3% 42%  
404 2% 42%  
405 0.8% 40%  
406 0.9% 39%  
407 3% 38%  
408 0.3% 35%  
409 4% 35%  
410 3% 31%  
411 2% 29%  
412 2% 27%  
413 5% 25%  
414 2% 20%  
415 2% 19%  
416 0.5% 17%  
417 3% 16%  
418 0.5% 13%  
419 0.5% 13%  
420 0.5% 12%  
421 1.2% 12%  
422 0.4% 11%  
423 0.1% 10%  
424 0.2% 10%  
425 0.7% 10%  
426 0.9% 9%  
427 0.2% 8%  
428 0.3% 8%  
429 6% 8%  
430 0.2% 2%  
431 0.1% 2%  
432 0.5% 2%  
433 0.1% 1.5%  
434 0.4% 1.4%  
435 0.1% 1.0%  
436 0.1% 0.9%  
437 0.2% 0.8%  
438 0% 0.5%  
439 0% 0.5%  
440 0.1% 0.5%  
441 0% 0.4%  
442 0% 0.4%  
443 0% 0.3%  
444 0% 0.3%  
445 0% 0.3%  
446 0% 0.3%  
447 0.2% 0.3%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0.7% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.1%  
352 0% 99.1% Last Result
353 0.1% 99.1%  
354 0% 99.0%  
355 0.1% 99.0%  
356 0.1% 98.9%  
357 0% 98.8%  
358 0% 98.8%  
359 0.3% 98.7%  
360 0.1% 98%  
361 0.1% 98%  
362 0.2% 98%  
363 0.2% 98%  
364 0.1% 98%  
365 0.1% 98%  
366 0% 98%  
367 0.3% 98%  
368 0% 97%  
369 1.2% 97%  
370 0.4% 96%  
371 0.5% 96%  
372 3% 95%  
373 4% 92%  
374 1.2% 88%  
375 3% 87%  
376 1.1% 85%  
377 2% 84%  
378 7% 82%  
379 1.0% 75%  
380 6% 74%  
381 0.5% 68%  
382 7% 67%  
383 3% 60%  
384 0.4% 57%  
385 3% 57%  
386 0.6% 54%  
387 1.0% 53%  
388 0.6% 52%  
389 2% 51%  
390 1.1% 49% Median
391 0.8% 48%  
392 1.1% 47%  
393 1.3% 46%  
394 0.4% 45%  
395 3% 44%  
396 3% 42%  
397 2% 39%  
398 0.6% 37%  
399 1.1% 37%  
400 2% 36%  
401 2% 34%  
402 1.3% 32%  
403 0.4% 30%  
404 0.9% 30%  
405 3% 29%  
406 4% 26%  
407 3% 22%  
408 3% 19%  
409 2% 17%  
410 0.9% 15%  
411 0.5% 14%  
412 0.3% 13%  
413 2% 13%  
414 0.1% 11%  
415 0.3% 11%  
416 1.3% 11%  
417 0.1% 10%  
418 0.4% 9%  
419 0.6% 9%  
420 0.6% 8%  
421 0.3% 8%  
422 5% 8%  
423 0.3% 2%  
424 0.1% 2%  
425 0.8% 2%  
426 0.1% 1.0%  
427 0.2% 0.9%  
428 0.1% 0.8%  
429 0.1% 0.7%  
430 0.2% 0.6%  
431 0% 0.4%  
432 0% 0.4%  
433 0% 0.4%  
434 0% 0.3%  
435 0% 0.3%  
436 0% 0.3%  
437 0.2% 0.3%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.7% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.2%  
305 0% 99.2%  
306 0% 99.2%  
307 0.1% 99.1%  
308 0.1% 99.0%  
309 0% 99.0%  
310 0% 99.0%  
311 0.1% 98.9%  
312 0.3% 98.9%  
313 0.2% 98.6%  
314 0% 98%  
315 0% 98%  
316 0.1% 98%  
317 0.1% 98%  
318 0% 98%  
319 0.1% 98%  
320 0% 98%  
321 0% 98% Last Result
322 0.1% 98%  
323 0.2% 98%  
324 0.3% 98%  
325 1.3% 97%  
326 0.7% 96% Majority
327 0.5% 95%  
328 2% 95%  
329 0.3% 93%  
330 1.0% 93%  
331 4% 92%  
332 5% 87%  
333 5% 83%  
334 3% 78%  
335 4% 75%  
336 1.1% 72%  
337 5% 71%  
338 8% 66%  
339 3% 58%  
340 1.3% 55%  
341 0.4% 54%  
342 0.9% 53%  
343 0.3% 52%  
344 0.9% 52%  
345 0.6% 51%  
346 1.1% 51%  
347 0.4% 49% Median
348 0.6% 49%  
349 0.5% 48%  
350 1.2% 48%  
351 3% 47%  
352 0.7% 44%  
353 2% 43%  
354 1.0% 41%  
355 0.4% 40%  
356 1.2% 40%  
357 2% 39%  
358 3% 37%  
359 3% 34%  
360 3% 31%  
361 1.4% 28%  
362 0.4% 27%  
363 2% 27%  
364 0.9% 24%  
365 5% 23%  
366 1.3% 19%  
367 2% 18%  
368 0.5% 15%  
369 0.2% 15%  
370 0.7% 15%  
371 0.2% 14%  
372 2% 14%  
373 1.2% 12%  
374 0.6% 10%  
375 6% 10%  
376 0.4% 4%  
377 1.0% 4%  
378 0.3% 3%  
379 0.1% 2%  
380 0.4% 2%  
381 0.3% 2%  
382 0.1% 1.4%  
383 0.2% 1.2%  
384 0.1% 1.0%  
385 0.1% 0.9%  
386 0.3% 0.9%  
387 0% 0.6%  
388 0% 0.6%  
389 0% 0.5%  
390 0.1% 0.5%  
391 0% 0.4%  
392 0% 0.4%  
393 0% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.3%  
395 0% 0.3%  
396 0% 0.3%  
397 0% 0.3%  
398 0.2% 0.3%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0.8% 99.8%  
302 0% 99.0%  
303 0.1% 99.0%  
304 0% 98.9%  
305 0.1% 98.9%  
306 0% 98.8%  
307 0% 98.8%  
308 0% 98.8%  
309 0.3% 98.8%  
310 0% 98%  
311 0% 98%  
312 0.1% 98%  
313 0% 98%  
314 0.2% 98%  
315 0.3% 98%  
316 0.1% 98%  
317 0.1% 98% Last Result
318 0.6% 98%  
319 0.2% 97%  
320 0.1% 97%  
321 0.8% 97%  
322 0.4% 96%  
323 1.4% 96%  
324 4% 94%  
325 2% 91%  
326 3% 88% Majority
327 5% 85%  
328 1.0% 81%  
329 7% 80%  
330 6% 72%  
331 0.2% 67%  
332 0.5% 66%  
333 3% 66%  
334 0.3% 63%  
335 2% 63%  
336 0.7% 60%  
337 6% 60%  
338 2% 53%  
339 0.3% 52%  
340 0.4% 51%  
341 2% 51% Median
342 0.6% 49%  
343 2% 49%  
344 1.0% 47%  
345 0.6% 46%  
346 1.2% 45%  
347 4% 44%  
348 2% 41%  
349 2% 39%  
350 2% 37%  
351 0.2% 35%  
352 0.7% 34%  
353 0.5% 34%  
354 5% 33%  
355 2% 29%  
356 2% 26%  
357 0.6% 24%  
358 2% 23%  
359 0.5% 22%  
360 0.9% 21%  
361 0.4% 20%  
362 1.1% 20%  
363 1.1% 19%  
364 3% 17%  
365 0.6% 14%  
366 0.5% 14%  
367 0.2% 13%  
368 0.9% 13%  
369 6% 12%  
370 2% 6%  
371 0.7% 4%  
372 2% 3%  
373 0.2% 2%  
374 0.1% 1.4%  
375 0.2% 1.3%  
376 0.1% 1.1%  
377 0.3% 1.1%  
378 0.1% 0.7%  
379 0% 0.7%  
380 0% 0.6%  
381 0.1% 0.6%  
382 0% 0.6%  
383 0% 0.5%  
384 0.1% 0.5%  
385 0% 0.5%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0% 0.3%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0.2% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.7% 99.8%  
300 0.1% 99.1%  
301 0% 99.0%  
302 0% 99.0%  
303 0.1% 98.9%  
304 0.1% 98.9%  
305 0% 98.8%  
306 0% 98.8%  
307 0% 98.8%  
308 0.3% 98.7%  
309 0.1% 98%  
310 0.1% 98%  
311 0% 98%  
312 0.2% 98%  
313 0.3% 98%  
314 0.1% 98%  
315 0.2% 98%  
316 0.1% 98%  
317 0.1% 97% Last Result
318 0.6% 97%  
319 0.2% 97%  
320 1.2% 96%  
321 1.4% 95%  
322 1.2% 94%  
323 2% 93%  
324 6% 91%  
325 0.9% 85%  
326 6% 84% Majority
327 2% 78%  
328 6% 76%  
329 2% 70%  
330 2% 68%  
331 2% 66%  
332 0.6% 64%  
333 3% 63%  
334 7% 61%  
335 0.8% 54%  
336 0.7% 53%  
337 1.0% 53%  
338 1.0% 52%  
339 0.4% 51%  
340 1.3% 50% Median
341 1.2% 49%  
342 1.2% 48%  
343 1.2% 46%  
344 2% 45%  
345 0.5% 43%  
346 2% 43%  
347 5% 41%  
348 1.3% 37%  
349 0.4% 35%  
350 0.7% 35%  
351 0.9% 34%  
352 3% 33%  
353 1.0% 30%  
354 2% 29%  
355 2% 27%  
356 2% 25%  
357 0.6% 23%  
358 1.4% 22%  
359 2% 21%  
360 0.9% 19%  
361 2% 18%  
362 0.3% 16%  
363 1.5% 15%  
364 0.3% 14%  
365 0.5% 13%  
366 0.1% 13%  
367 0.8% 13%  
368 8% 12%  
369 0.4% 4%  
370 1.5% 4%  
371 0.8% 3%  
372 0.3% 2%  
373 0.2% 1.4%  
374 0.2% 1.2%  
375 0.1% 1.1%  
376 0.3% 1.0%  
377 0.1% 0.7%  
378 0% 0.6%  
379 0% 0.6%  
380 0% 0.6%  
381 0% 0.6%  
382 0% 0.5%  
383 0% 0.5%  
384 0% 0.4%  
385 0.1% 0.4%  
386 0% 0.3%  
387 0% 0.3%  
388 0.2% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.7% 99.8%  
300 0.1% 99.1%  
301 0% 99.0%  
302 0% 99.0%  
303 0.1% 98.9%  
304 0.1% 98.9%  
305 0% 98.8%  
306 0% 98.8%  
307 0% 98.8%  
308 0.3% 98.7%  
309 0.1% 98%  
310 0.1% 98%  
311 0% 98%  
312 0.2% 98%  
313 0.3% 98%  
314 0.1% 98%  
315 0.2% 98%  
316 0.1% 98%  
317 0.1% 97% Last Result
318 0.6% 97%  
319 0.2% 97%  
320 1.2% 96%  
321 1.4% 95%  
322 1.2% 94%  
323 2% 93%  
324 6% 91%  
325 0.9% 85%  
326 6% 84% Majority
327 2% 78%  
328 6% 76%  
329 2% 70%  
330 2% 68%  
331 2% 66%  
332 0.6% 64%  
333 3% 63%  
334 7% 61%  
335 0.8% 54%  
336 0.7% 53%  
337 1.0% 53%  
338 1.0% 52%  
339 0.4% 51%  
340 1.3% 50% Median
341 1.2% 49%  
342 1.2% 48%  
343 1.2% 46%  
344 2% 45%  
345 0.5% 43%  
346 2% 43%  
347 5% 41%  
348 1.3% 37%  
349 0.4% 35%  
350 0.7% 35%  
351 0.9% 34%  
352 3% 33%  
353 1.0% 30%  
354 2% 29%  
355 2% 27%  
356 2% 25%  
357 0.6% 23%  
358 1.4% 22%  
359 2% 21%  
360 0.9% 19%  
361 2% 18%  
362 0.3% 16%  
363 1.5% 15%  
364 0.3% 14%  
365 0.5% 13%  
366 0.1% 13%  
367 0.8% 13%  
368 8% 12%  
369 0.4% 4%  
370 1.5% 4%  
371 0.8% 3%  
372 0.3% 2%  
373 0.2% 1.4%  
374 0.2% 1.2%  
375 0.1% 1.1%  
376 0.3% 1.0%  
377 0.1% 0.7%  
378 0% 0.6%  
379 0% 0.6%  
380 0% 0.6%  
381 0% 0.6%  
382 0% 0.5%  
383 0% 0.5%  
384 0% 0.4%  
385 0.1% 0.4%  
386 0% 0.3%  
387 0% 0.3%  
388 0.2% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0.2% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.7%  
245 0% 99.7%  
246 0.1% 99.7%  
247 0% 99.6%  
248 0.1% 99.5%  
249 0% 99.5%  
250 0% 99.5%  
251 0.1% 99.4%  
252 0% 99.4%  
253 0% 99.4%  
254 0.1% 99.3%  
255 0.3% 99.3%  
256 0.1% 98.9%  
257 0.2% 98.9%  
258 0.1% 98.7%  
259 0.2% 98.6%  
260 2% 98%  
261 0.7% 97%  
262 2% 96%  
263 6% 94%  
264 0.9% 88%  
265 0.2% 87%  
266 0.5% 87%  
267 0.6% 86%  
268 3% 86%  
269 1.1% 83%  
270 1.1% 81%  
271 0.4% 80%  
272 0.9% 80%  
273 0.5% 79%  
274 2% 78%  
275 0.6% 77%  
276 2% 76%  
277 2% 74%  
278 5% 71%  
279 0.5% 67%  
280 0.7% 66%  
281 0.2% 66%  
282 2% 65%  
283 2% 63%  
284 2% 61%  
285 4% 59%  
286 1.2% 56%  
287 0.6% 55%  
288 1.0% 54%  
289 2% 53%  
290 0.6% 51%  
291 2% 51% Median
292 0.4% 49%  
293 0.3% 49%  
294 2% 48%  
295 6% 47%  
296 0.7% 40%  
297 2% 40%  
298 0.3% 37%  
299 3% 37%  
300 0.5% 34%  
301 0.2% 34%  
302 6% 33%  
303 7% 28%  
304 1.0% 20%  
305 5% 19%  
306 3% 15%  
307 2% 12%  
308 4% 9%  
309 1.4% 6%  
310 0.4% 4%  
311 0.8% 4%  
312 0.1% 3%  
313 0.2% 3%  
314 0.6% 3% Last Result
315 0.1% 2%  
316 0.1% 2%  
317 0.3% 2%  
318 0.2% 2%  
319 0% 2%  
320 0.1% 2%  
321 0% 2%  
322 0% 2%  
323 0.3% 2%  
324 0% 1.2%  
325 0% 1.2%  
326 0% 1.2% Majority
327 0.1% 1.2%  
328 0% 1.1%  
329 0.1% 1.1%  
330 0% 1.0%  
331 0.8% 1.0%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.2% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.7%  
242 0% 99.7%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0% 99.6%  
245 0% 99.5%  
246 0% 99.5%  
247 0.1% 99.5%  
248 0% 99.4%  
249 0% 99.4%  
250 0.1% 99.3%  
251 0.3% 99.2%  
252 0.1% 98.9%  
253 0.2% 98.8%  
254 0.1% 98.7%  
255 0.8% 98.6%  
256 0.8% 98%  
257 2% 97%  
258 1.3% 95%  
259 6% 94%  
260 0.6% 88%  
261 0.2% 87%  
262 0.1% 87%  
263 1.0% 87%  
264 3% 86%  
265 0.9% 82%  
266 1.3% 82%  
267 0.3% 80%  
268 0.7% 80%  
269 0.6% 79%  
270 2% 79%  
271 0.5% 77%  
272 0.6% 76%  
273 3% 75%  
274 4% 72%  
275 2% 69%  
276 0.3% 66%  
277 0.8% 66%  
278 1.5% 65%  
279 0.7% 64%  
280 3% 63%  
281 1.2% 60%  
282 4% 59%  
283 0.3% 54%  
284 0.9% 54%  
285 2% 53%  
286 0.6% 51%  
287 0.9% 51% Median
288 1.2% 50%  
289 0.4% 49%  
290 2% 48%  
291 6% 47%  
292 0.8% 40%  
293 2% 40%  
294 0.3% 37%  
295 3% 37%  
296 0.5% 34%  
297 0.2% 34%  
298 6% 33%  
299 7% 28%  
300 1.0% 20%  
301 5% 19%  
302 3% 15%  
303 2% 12%  
304 4% 10%  
305 1.4% 6%  
306 0.6% 5%  
307 0.8% 4%  
308 0.1% 3%  
309 0.2% 3%  
310 0.7% 3%  
311 0.1% 2%  
312 0.1% 2%  
313 0.3% 2% Last Result
314 0.3% 2%  
315 0% 2%  
316 0.1% 2%  
317 0% 2%  
318 0% 2%  
319 0.3% 2%  
320 0% 1.2%  
321 0% 1.2%  
322 0% 1.2%  
323 0.1% 1.2%  
324 0% 1.1%  
325 0.1% 1.1%  
326 0% 1.0% Majority
327 0.8% 1.0%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.2% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.7%  
232 0% 99.7%  
233 0% 99.7%  
234 0% 99.7%  
235 0% 99.7%  
236 0% 99.6%  
237 0% 99.6%  
238 0.1% 99.6%  
239 0% 99.5%  
240 0.2% 99.4%  
241 0.2% 99.3%  
242 0% 99.1%  
243 0.1% 99.1%  
244 0.2% 98.9%  
245 0.2% 98.7%  
246 0.3% 98.6%  
247 0.5% 98%  
248 0.7% 98%  
249 0.3% 97%  
250 0.1% 97%  
251 0.4% 97%  
252 6% 96%  
253 2% 90%  
254 0.5% 88%  
255 1.1% 87%  
256 1.3% 86%  
257 0.1% 85%  
258 0.3% 85%  
259 0.3% 84%  
260 4% 84%  
261 1.4% 80%  
262 2% 79%  
263 2% 76%  
264 0.9% 74%  
265 0.7% 73%  
266 0.4% 73%  
267 3% 72%  
268 2% 70%  
269 3% 68%  
270 2% 65%  
271 4% 63%  
272 0.7% 59%  
273 0.5% 59%  
274 0.9% 58%  
275 1.1% 57%  
276 2% 56%  
277 1.1% 54%  
278 2% 53%  
279 0.3% 50%  
280 1.2% 50% Median
281 0.2% 49%  
282 0.4% 49%  
283 0.3% 48%  
284 0.3% 48%  
285 0.6% 47%  
286 3% 47%  
287 6% 44%  
288 2% 37%  
289 3% 35%  
290 0.4% 32%  
291 8% 32%  
292 3% 24%  
293 2% 21%  
294 2% 19%  
295 8% 17%  
296 1.0% 9%  
297 1.4% 8%  
298 0.1% 7%  
299 0.5% 7%  
300 2% 6%  
301 2% 5%  
302 0.6% 3%  
303 0.2% 2%  
304 0.1% 2%  
305 0.2% 2%  
306 0% 2%  
307 0.1% 2%  
308 0% 2%  
309 0% 2% Last Result
310 0.1% 2%  
311 0% 2%  
312 0.1% 2%  
313 0% 1.5%  
314 0.1% 1.5%  
315 0.3% 1.4%  
316 0.1% 1.1%  
317 0% 1.0%  
318 0% 1.0%  
319 0.1% 1.0%  
320 0% 0.9%  
321 0.1% 0.9%  
322 0% 0.8%  
323 0.7% 0.8%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0.2% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.7%  
193 0% 99.7%  
194 0% 99.6%  
195 0% 99.6%  
196 0.2% 99.6%  
197 0.1% 99.4%  
198 0.1% 99.3%  
199 0.1% 99.3%  
200 0.2% 99.2%  
201 0% 99.1%  
202 0.8% 99.0%  
203 0.1% 98%  
204 0.1% 98%  
205 6% 98%  
206 0.2% 92%  
207 0.6% 92%  
208 0.5% 92%  
209 0.6% 91%  
210 1.3% 91%  
211 0.2% 89%  
212 0.4% 89%  
213 0.3% 89%  
214 2% 89%  
215 0.3% 87%  
216 3% 87%  
217 3% 84%  
218 2% 81%  
219 1.2% 79%  
220 2% 78%  
221 0.3% 76%  
222 1.5% 76%  
223 3% 74%  
224 3% 72%  
225 0.3% 68%  
226 2% 68%  
227 2% 66%  
228 0.7% 64%  
229 0.9% 63%  
230 0.9% 62%  
231 2% 61%  
232 2% 59%  
233 2% 57%  
234 2% 55%  
235 0.4% 53%  
236 1.3% 53%  
237 0.5% 51% Median
238 2% 51%  
239 2% 49%  
240 0.7% 48%  
241 3% 47%  
242 0.3% 44%  
243 9% 44%  
244 0.6% 35%  
245 2% 35%  
246 4% 32%  
247 7% 28%  
248 1.1% 22%  
249 1.1% 20%  
250 4% 19%  
251 3% 16%  
252 0.5% 13%  
253 1.4% 13%  
254 3% 11%  
255 3% 8%  
256 0.1% 4%  
257 0.3% 4%  
258 1.1% 4%  
259 0.6% 3%  
260 0.1% 2%  
261 0.1% 2%  
262 0% 2%  
263 0.2% 2%  
264 0.2% 2%  
265 0.1% 2%  
266 0% 2%  
267 0.1% 2%  
268 0.3% 2%  
269 0% 1.2%  
270 0% 1.2%  
271 0% 1.2%  
272 0.1% 1.1%  
273 0% 1.0%  
274 0.1% 1.0%  
275 0% 0.9%  
276 0.7% 0.9%  
277 0% 0.2%  
278 0% 0.2% Last Result
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
178 0% 100%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0.2% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.7%  
183 0% 99.7%  
184 0% 99.7%  
185 0% 99.7%  
186 0.2% 99.7%  
187 0% 99.5%  
188 0% 99.5%  
189 0.1% 99.5%  
190 0.2% 99.4%  
191 0.1% 99.2%  
192 0.1% 99.1%  
193 0.4% 99.0%  
194 0.2% 98.6%  
195 0.3% 98%  
196 0.1% 98%  
197 0.2% 98%  
198 5% 98%  
199 0.1% 92%  
200 0.4% 92%  
201 0.4% 92%  
202 1.2% 91%  
203 0.6% 90%  
204 0.1% 90%  
205 1.0% 90%  
206 0.3% 89%  
207 1.3% 88%  
208 0.5% 87%  
209 0.4% 86%  
210 3% 86%  
211 0.3% 83%  
212 4% 83%  
213 4% 79%  
214 2% 75%  
215 1.4% 73%  
216 0.4% 72%  
217 2% 71%  
218 2% 70%  
219 2% 67%  
220 3% 65%  
221 0.4% 63%  
222 3% 62%  
223 0.2% 59%  
224 2% 59%  
225 0.7% 57%  
226 2% 56%  
227 0.8% 55%  
228 3% 54%  
229 0.7% 51%  
230 0.2% 50% Median
231 0.9% 50%  
232 2% 49%  
233 0.5% 47%  
234 3% 47%  
235 1.1% 44%  
236 1.2% 43%  
237 0.9% 41%  
238 2% 40%  
239 13% 38%  
240 0.8% 25%  
241 1.2% 24%  
242 0.7% 23%  
243 8% 22%  
244 1.0% 14%  
245 0.2% 13%  
246 3% 13%  
247 5% 11%  
248 0.1% 5%  
249 0.1% 5%  
250 0.7% 5%  
251 2% 4%  
252 0.1% 3%  
253 0.3% 3%  
254 0.3% 2%  
255 0.1% 2%  
256 0.2% 2%  
257 0% 2%  
258 0% 2%  
259 0.1% 2%  
260 0% 2%  
261 0.1% 2%  
262 0% 1.5%  
263 0.1% 1.5%  
264 0.3% 1.3%  
265 0.1% 1.1%  
266 0% 1.0%  
267 0% 1.0%  
268 0.1% 1.0%  
269 0% 0.9%  
270 0% 0.8%  
271 0% 0.8%  
272 0.7% 0.8%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1% Last Result
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
178 0% 100%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0.2% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.7%  
183 0% 99.7%  
184 0% 99.7%  
185 0% 99.7%  
186 0.2% 99.7%  
187 0% 99.5%  
188 0% 99.5%  
189 0.1% 99.5%  
190 0.2% 99.4%  
191 0.1% 99.2%  
192 0.1% 99.1%  
193 0.4% 99.0%  
194 0.2% 98.6%  
195 0.3% 98%  
196 0.1% 98%  
197 0.2% 98%  
198 5% 98%  
199 0.1% 92%  
200 0.4% 92%  
201 0.4% 92%  
202 1.2% 91%  
203 0.6% 90%  
204 0.1% 90%  
205 1.0% 90%  
206 0.3% 89%  
207 1.3% 88%  
208 0.5% 87%  
209 0.4% 86%  
210 3% 86%  
211 0.3% 83%  
212 4% 83%  
213 4% 79%  
214 2% 75%  
215 1.4% 73%  
216 0.4% 72%  
217 2% 71%  
218 2% 70%  
219 2% 67%  
220 3% 65%  
221 0.4% 63%  
222 3% 62%  
223 0.2% 59%  
224 2% 59%  
225 0.7% 57%  
226 2% 56%  
227 0.8% 55%  
228 3% 54%  
229 0.7% 51%  
230 0.2% 50% Median
231 0.9% 50%  
232 2% 49%  
233 0.5% 47%  
234 3% 47%  
235 1.1% 44%  
236 1.2% 43%  
237 0.9% 41%  
238 2% 40%  
239 13% 38%  
240 0.8% 25%  
241 1.2% 24%  
242 0.7% 23%  
243 8% 22%  
244 1.0% 14%  
245 0.2% 13%  
246 3% 13%  
247 5% 11%  
248 0.1% 5%  
249 0.1% 5%  
250 0.7% 5%  
251 2% 4%  
252 0.1% 3%  
253 0.3% 3%  
254 0.3% 2%  
255 0.1% 2%  
256 0.2% 2%  
257 0% 2%  
258 0% 2%  
259 0.1% 2%  
260 0% 2%  
261 0.1% 2%  
262 0% 1.5%  
263 0.1% 1.5%  
264 0.3% 1.3%  
265 0.1% 1.1%  
266 0% 1.0%  
267 0% 1.0%  
268 0.1% 1.0%  
269 0% 0.9%  
270 0% 0.8%  
271 0% 0.8%  
272 0.7% 0.8%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1% Last Result
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0% 99.9%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0.2% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.7%  
179 0% 99.7%  
180 0% 99.7%  
181 0% 99.6%  
182 0.1% 99.6%  
183 0.1% 99.5%  
184 0% 99.4%  
185 0.3% 99.4%  
186 0.3% 99.1%  
187 0.1% 98.8%  
188 0.2% 98.7%  
189 0.5% 98.5%  
190 1.0% 98%  
191 0.9% 97%  
192 2% 96%  
193 0.9% 94%  
194 0.1% 93%  
195 2% 93%  
196 6% 91%  
197 0.8% 85%  
198 1.0% 84%  
199 2% 83%  
200 0.3% 81%  
201 2% 80%  
202 3% 78%  
203 2% 75%  
204 1.2% 73%  
205 1.2% 72%  
206 2% 71%  
207 0.3% 69%  
208 1.2% 69%  
209 0.4% 68%  
210 0.3% 67%  
211 5% 67%  
212 3% 62%  
213 2% 59%  
214 2% 57%  
215 0.8% 55%  
216 0.6% 54%  
217 3% 54%  
218 2% 51% Median
219 0.6% 48%  
220 0.3% 48%  
221 0.6% 47%  
222 8% 47%  
223 4% 39%  
224 8% 36%  
225 1.2% 27%  
226 2% 26%  
227 1.1% 24%  
228 4% 23%  
229 1.3% 19%  
230 0.9% 18%  
231 3% 17%  
232 3% 14%  
233 3% 11%  
234 0.3% 8%  
235 2% 7%  
236 1.4% 6%  
237 0.5% 5%  
238 0.2% 4%  
239 0.2% 4%  
240 0.1% 4%  
241 0.4% 3%  
242 0.8% 3%  
243 0.5% 2%  
244 0.1% 2%  
245 0.1% 2%  
246 0.1% 2%  
247 0.1% 2%  
248 0.2% 1.5%  
249 0.8% 1.3%  
250 0% 0.5%  
251 0% 0.5%  
252 0% 0.5%  
253 0% 0.4%  
254 0.1% 0.4%  
255 0% 0.3%  
256 0.1% 0.3%  
257 0% 0.2%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0.1% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0.2% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.7%  
169 0% 99.7%  
170 0% 99.7%  
171 0% 99.7%  
172 0% 99.7%  
173 0.1% 99.6%  
174 0% 99.6%  
175 0.3% 99.5%  
176 0% 99.3%  
177 0.1% 99.2%  
178 0.2% 99.1%  
179 0.4% 98.9%  
180 0.5% 98.5%  
181 0.1% 98%  
182 0.2% 98%  
183 0.2% 98%  
184 0.9% 98%  
185 1.3% 97%  
186 0.5% 95%  
187 1.1% 95%  
188 3% 94%  
189 6% 91%  
190 0.9% 85%  
191 0.6% 84%  
192 2% 83%  
193 2% 82%  
194 0.8% 79%  
195 2% 79%  
196 0.9% 76%  
197 3% 75%  
198 2% 73%  
199 2% 71%  
200 2% 69%  
201 0.3% 67%  
202 1.4% 67%  
203 1.3% 65%  
204 3% 64%  
205 2% 61%  
206 2% 60%  
207 4% 57%  
208 0.4% 53%  
209 0.5% 53%  
210 0.7% 52%  
211 1.5% 52% Median
212 0.4% 50%  
213 3% 50%  
214 1.4% 47%  
215 2% 45%  
216 4% 43%  
217 3% 40%  
218 6% 36%  
219 0.5% 30%  
220 7% 29%  
221 6% 23%  
222 2% 17%  
223 1.0% 14%  
224 1.2% 13%  
225 2% 12%  
226 2% 10%  
227 2% 9%  
228 0.4% 6%  
229 2% 6%  
230 0.2% 4%  
231 1.1% 4%  
232 0.2% 3%  
233 0.2% 3%  
234 0.6% 3%  
235 0.1% 2%  
236 0% 2%  
237 0.5% 2%  
238 0.1% 1.4%  
239 0.1% 1.4%  
240 0% 1.3%  
241 0% 1.3%  
242 0.1% 1.3%  
243 0% 1.2%  
244 0% 1.2%  
245 0.7% 1.1%  
246 0% 0.4%  
247 0.1% 0.4%  
248 0% 0.3%  
249 0% 0.3%  
250 0.1% 0.3%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0.2% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.7%  
130 0% 99.7%  
131 0.2% 99.7%  
132 0.1% 99.6%  
133 0.1% 99.5%  
134 0.2% 99.4%  
135 0% 99.2%  
136 0.1% 99.2%  
137 0.1% 99.1%  
138 0.5% 99.0%  
139 0.2% 98%  
140 0.5% 98%  
141 1.0% 98%  
142 5% 97%  
143 0.7% 91%  
144 1.3% 91%  
145 0.5% 89%  
146 0.1% 89%  
147 2% 89%  
148 0.9% 86%  
149 1.5% 85%  
150 0.8% 84%  
151 2% 83%  
152 1.3% 81%  
153 5% 80%  
154 3% 75%  
155 0.6% 72%  
156 0.4% 71%  
157 3% 71%  
158 2% 68%  
159 1.4% 66%  
160 1.1% 64%  
161 2% 63%  
162 0.5% 61%  
163 2% 60%  
164 1.0% 58%  
165 4% 57%  
166 1.3% 53%  
167 0.7% 52%  
168 1.2% 51% Median
169 2% 50%  
170 2% 48%  
171 4% 46%  
172 5% 42%  
173 0.7% 37%  
174 8% 37%  
175 2% 29%  
176 3% 27%  
177 2% 24%  
178 3% 22%  
179 3% 19%  
180 3% 16%  
181 2% 13%  
182 3% 11%  
183 2% 7%  
184 0.9% 6%  
185 0.5% 5%  
186 0.2% 5%  
187 0.3% 4%  
188 0.4% 4%  
189 0.2% 4%  
190 0.4% 3%  
191 0.1% 3%  
192 0.5% 3%  
193 0.7% 2%  
194 0.1% 2%  
195 0% 2%  
196 0.1% 1.5%  
197 0% 1.4%  
198 0.7% 1.4%  
199 0.2% 0.7%  
200 0% 0.5%  
201 0.1% 0.5%  
202 0% 0.3%  
203 0.1% 0.3%  
204 0% 0.3%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0.2% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.8%  
120 0% 99.7%  
121 0.1% 99.7%  
122 0% 99.6%  
123 0% 99.6%  
124 0.2% 99.6%  
125 0.1% 99.3%  
126 0.1% 99.3%  
127 0% 99.2%  
128 0% 99.2%  
129 0.2% 99.1%  
130 0.1% 98.9%  
131 0.6% 98.8%  
132 0.4% 98%  
133 0.2% 98%  
134 0.7% 98%  
135 6% 97%  
136 0.6% 91%  
137 0.2% 90%  
138 0.3% 90%  
139 2% 90%  
140 2% 88%  
141 0.3% 86%  
142 2% 86%  
143 0.2% 84%  
144 3% 84%  
145 3% 81%  
146 2% 78%  
147 1.0% 76%  
148 0.3% 75%  
149 5% 75%  
150 4% 70%  
151 2% 66%  
152 0.3% 63%  
153 0.4% 63%  
154 3% 63%  
155 0.6% 60%  
156 0.2% 59%  
157 2% 59%  
158 3% 58%  
159 2% 55%  
160 0.4% 52%  
161 3% 52% Median
162 0.5% 49%  
163 2% 48%  
164 5% 46%  
165 1.3% 42%  
166 1.3% 40%  
167 4% 39%  
168 6% 36%  
169 2% 30%  
170 7% 28%  
171 3% 21%  
172 3% 18%  
173 4% 15%  
174 1.4% 11%  
175 2% 9%  
176 0.8% 7%  
177 0.6% 7%  
178 2% 6%  
179 0.2% 4%  
180 0.2% 4%  
181 0.1% 4%  
182 0.8% 4%  
183 0.7% 3%  
184 0% 2%  
185 0.2% 2%  
186 0.3% 2%  
187 0% 2%  
188 0.2% 2%  
189 0.1% 1.3%  
190 0% 1.2%  
191 0% 1.2%  
192 0% 1.2%  
193 0% 1.2%  
194 0.8% 1.1%  
195 0% 0.3%  
196 0% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.3%  
198 0% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0.2% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.8%  
120 0% 99.7%  
121 0.1% 99.7%  
122 0% 99.6%  
123 0% 99.6%  
124 0.2% 99.6%  
125 0.1% 99.3%  
126 0.1% 99.3%  
127 0% 99.2%  
128 0% 99.2%  
129 0.2% 99.1%  
130 0.1% 98.9%  
131 0.6% 98.8%  
132 0.4% 98%  
133 0.2% 98%  
134 0.7% 98%  
135 6% 97%  
136 0.6% 91%  
137 0.2% 90%  
138 0.3% 90%  
139 2% 90%  
140 2% 88%  
141 0.3% 86%  
142 2% 86%  
143 0.2% 84%  
144 3% 84%  
145 3% 81%  
146 2% 78%  
147 1.0% 76%  
148 0.3% 75%  
149 5% 75%  
150 4% 70%  
151 2% 66%  
152 0.3% 63%  
153 0.4% 63%  
154 3% 63%  
155 0.6% 60%  
156 0.2% 59%  
157 2% 59%  
158 3% 58%  
159 2% 55%  
160 0.4% 52%  
161 3% 52% Median
162 0.5% 49%  
163 2% 48%  
164 5% 46%  
165 1.3% 42%  
166 1.3% 40%  
167 4% 39%  
168 6% 36%  
169 2% 30%  
170 7% 28%  
171 3% 21%  
172 3% 18%  
173 4% 15%  
174 1.4% 11%  
175 2% 9%  
176 0.8% 7%  
177 0.6% 7%  
178 2% 6%  
179 0.2% 4%  
180 0.2% 4%  
181 0.1% 4%  
182 0.8% 4%  
183 0.7% 3%  
184 0% 2%  
185 0.2% 2%  
186 0.3% 2%  
187 0% 2%  
188 0.2% 2%  
189 0.1% 1.3%  
190 0% 1.2%  
191 0% 1.2%  
192 0% 1.2%  
193 0% 1.2%  
194 0.8% 1.1%  
195 0% 0.3%  
196 0% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.3%  
198 0% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations