Opinion Poll by Opinium for The Observer, 15–17 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 36.5% 35.2–37.9% 34.8–38.3% 34.4–38.7% 33.8–39.4%
Labour Party 41.0% 23.7% 22.5–25.0% 22.2–25.3% 21.9–25.6% 21.3–26.2%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 15.8% 14.8–16.9% 14.5–17.2% 14.3–17.5% 13.8–18.0%
Brexit Party 0.0% 11.8% 11.0–12.8% 10.7–13.1% 10.5–13.3% 10.1–13.8%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 3.9% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 2.9–5.2%
Green Party 1.7% 3.9% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 2.9–5.2%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–3.0%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 353 341–374 336–376 333–380 324–387
Labour Party 262 171 152–181 149–185 147–190 141–198
Liberal Democrats 12 47 45–50 43–52 42–56 38–60
Brexit Party 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–4
Scottish National Party 35 50 49–53 47–54 45–54 40–54
Green Party 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 8 4–10 4–11 4–11 4–12
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.8% Last Result
318 0% 99.8%  
319 0.1% 99.8%  
320 0.1% 99.7%  
321 0.1% 99.7%  
322 0% 99.6%  
323 0% 99.5%  
324 0% 99.5%  
325 0.1% 99.5%  
326 0.1% 99.4% Majority
327 0.7% 99.3%  
328 0% 98.5%  
329 0.3% 98%  
330 0.3% 98%  
331 0.1% 98%  
332 0.1% 98%  
333 1.2% 98%  
334 0.6% 96%  
335 0.4% 96%  
336 0.7% 95%  
337 0.1% 95%  
338 1.0% 95%  
339 0.5% 94%  
340 0.7% 93%  
341 3% 92%  
342 1.1% 89%  
343 3% 88%  
344 2% 85%  
345 2% 83%  
346 2% 81%  
347 6% 79%  
348 2% 73%  
349 3% 71%  
350 4% 68%  
351 1.5% 63%  
352 0.8% 62%  
353 16% 61% Median
354 4% 46%  
355 1.4% 42%  
356 0.7% 41%  
357 0.2% 40%  
358 0.7% 40%  
359 10% 39%  
360 2% 29%  
361 4% 28%  
362 0.9% 24%  
363 1.3% 23%  
364 0.9% 22%  
365 0.5% 21%  
366 0.1% 20%  
367 0.6% 20%  
368 3% 20%  
369 3% 17%  
370 0.6% 14%  
371 1.3% 14%  
372 2% 12%  
373 0.2% 10%  
374 0.5% 10%  
375 5% 10%  
376 0.4% 5%  
377 0.7% 5%  
378 1.3% 4%  
379 0.1% 3%  
380 0.2% 3%  
381 0.3% 2%  
382 0.5% 2%  
383 0.3% 2%  
384 0.2% 1.3%  
385 0.2% 1.2%  
386 0.2% 0.9%  
387 0.4% 0.7%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0.1% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.8%  
140 0.1% 99.6%  
141 0.1% 99.5%  
142 0.1% 99.4%  
143 0.1% 99.3%  
144 0.3% 99.1%  
145 0.1% 98.8%  
146 0.2% 98.7%  
147 1.1% 98%  
148 0.3% 97%  
149 5% 97%  
150 0.2% 92%  
151 0.7% 92%  
152 1.3% 91%  
153 2% 90%  
154 3% 88%  
155 0.5% 85%  
156 0.5% 85%  
157 4% 84%  
158 0.6% 80%  
159 0.3% 80%  
160 0.6% 79%  
161 0.9% 79%  
162 1.5% 78%  
163 1.0% 76%  
164 1.2% 76%  
165 11% 74%  
166 3% 64%  
167 0.7% 60%  
168 0.5% 60%  
169 2% 59%  
170 3% 57%  
171 10% 55% Median
172 4% 45%  
173 5% 41%  
174 5% 36%  
175 3% 31%  
176 1.1% 28%  
177 3% 27%  
178 5% 25%  
179 1.0% 19%  
180 4% 18%  
181 6% 14%  
182 0.5% 8%  
183 1.5% 8%  
184 0.8% 6%  
185 0.6% 5%  
186 1.5% 5%  
187 0.5% 3%  
188 0.1% 3%  
189 0.1% 3%  
190 0.2% 3%  
191 0.3% 2%  
192 0.1% 2%  
193 0.5% 2%  
194 0.1% 1.5%  
195 0.1% 1.4%  
196 0.1% 1.3%  
197 0.1% 1.2%  
198 0.7% 1.2%  
199 0% 0.5%  
200 0.3% 0.4%  
201 0% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.7%  
39 0.3% 99.5%  
40 0.7% 99.1%  
41 0.6% 98%  
42 0.5% 98%  
43 2% 97%  
44 3% 95%  
45 7% 92%  
46 6% 85%  
47 32% 78% Median
48 18% 47%  
49 17% 28%  
50 5% 11%  
51 1.1% 6%  
52 0.6% 5%  
53 0.9% 5%  
54 0.7% 4%  
55 0.4% 3%  
56 0.3% 3%  
57 0.5% 2%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0.2% 0.9%  
60 0.2% 0.7%  
61 0.3% 0.5%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 24%  
2 10% 12%  
3 1.3% 2%  
4 0.8% 0.9%  
5 0.1% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.3% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 0.1% 99.4%  
42 0.1% 99.3%  
43 0.3% 99.3%  
44 0.1% 98.9%  
45 1.4% 98.8%  
46 0.9% 97%  
47 2% 97%  
48 2% 94%  
49 4% 93%  
50 45% 88% Median
51 21% 43%  
52 2% 22%  
53 12% 20%  
54 8% 8%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 58% 100% Last Result, Median
2 40% 42%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 17% 99.9% Last Result
5 8% 83%  
6 1.0% 75%  
7 22% 74%  
8 6% 52% Median
9 16% 46%  
10 22% 30%  
11 7% 8%  
12 1.0% 1.3%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 412 100% 401–432 393–435 392–438 383–445
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 403 100% 394–425 387–426 385–429 374–437
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 400 100% 390–422 387–422 382–424 375–433
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 400 100% 390–422 387–422 382–424 375–433
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 362 99.8% 348–382 342–385 340–387 331–396
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 353 99.4% 341–374 336–376 334–380 325–387
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 353 99.4% 341–374 336–376 333–380 324–387
Conservative Party 317 353 99.4% 341–374 336–376 333–380 324–387
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 314 279 0% 258–291 256–296 252–298 245–307
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 277 0% 256–289 254–294 250–296 244–306
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 268 0% 249–282 246–288 242–290 235–300
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 230 0% 209–240 208–243 206–248 198–256
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 227 0% 206–236 205–242 201–246 194–256
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 221 0% 203–233 199–236 197–240 190–251
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 218 0% 198–230 196–235 193–239 186–248
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 218 0% 198–230 196–235 193–239 186–248
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 180 0% 159–187 158–192 156–196 149–205
Labour Party – Change UK 262 171 0% 152–181 149–185 147–190 141–198
Labour Party 262 171 0% 152–181 149–185 147–190 141–198

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100% Last Result
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.8%  
379 0.1% 99.8%  
380 0.1% 99.7%  
381 0.1% 99.6%  
382 0% 99.5%  
383 0.1% 99.5%  
384 0.7% 99.4%  
385 0.4% 98.7%  
386 0.1% 98%  
387 0.1% 98%  
388 0% 98%  
389 0.1% 98%  
390 0.3% 98%  
391 0.1% 98%  
392 0.4% 98%  
393 2% 97%  
394 0.5% 95%  
395 0.3% 94%  
396 0.3% 94%  
397 0.2% 94%  
398 1.3% 94%  
399 0.8% 92%  
400 0.8% 91%  
401 5% 91%  
402 6% 86%  
403 1.0% 80%  
404 2% 79%  
405 3% 78%  
406 1.0% 74%  
407 6% 73%  
408 3% 67%  
409 2% 64%  
410 4% 62%  
411 3% 58% Median
412 10% 55%  
413 5% 46%  
414 3% 41%  
415 0.5% 38%  
416 1.5% 37%  
417 0.3% 36%  
418 1.5% 36%  
419 9% 34%  
420 1.0% 25%  
421 2% 24%  
422 0.8% 22%  
423 0.5% 21%  
424 1.0% 21%  
425 0.7% 20%  
426 3% 19%  
427 0.3% 16%  
428 3% 16%  
429 0.7% 13%  
430 0.8% 12%  
431 0.2% 11%  
432 1.3% 11%  
433 1.4% 10%  
434 0.4% 8%  
435 5% 8%  
436 0.2% 3%  
437 0.2% 3%  
438 0.3% 3%  
439 0.2% 2%  
440 0.4% 2%  
441 0.6% 2%  
442 0.2% 0.9%  
443 0.1% 0.7%  
444 0% 0.6%  
445 0.1% 0.5%  
446 0.2% 0.5%  
447 0% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.2%  
449 0% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100% Last Result
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.8%  
371 0% 99.8%  
372 0% 99.8%  
373 0.2% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.6%  
375 0.1% 99.5%  
376 0% 99.4%  
377 0% 99.4%  
378 0.2% 99.4%  
379 0.1% 99.2%  
380 0.9% 99.1%  
381 0.1% 98%  
382 0.1% 98%  
383 0.4% 98%  
384 0% 98%  
385 0.3% 98%  
386 1.4% 97%  
387 1.1% 96%  
388 0.3% 95%  
389 1.1% 95%  
390 0.2% 93%  
391 0.2% 93%  
392 0.4% 93%  
393 2% 93%  
394 4% 91%  
395 1.0% 87%  
396 4% 86%  
397 7% 82%  
398 1.4% 75%  
399 2% 74%  
400 5% 72%  
401 4% 67%  
402 0.9% 63%  
403 15% 62% Median
404 4% 47%  
405 2% 43%  
406 0.4% 41%  
407 0.4% 41%  
408 0.4% 40%  
409 11% 40%  
410 3% 29%  
411 1.3% 26%  
412 0.9% 24%  
413 1.0% 23%  
414 1.0% 22%  
415 0.2% 21%  
416 0.3% 21%  
417 0.9% 21%  
418 4% 20%  
419 3% 16%  
420 0.3% 13%  
421 0.5% 13%  
422 0.4% 12%  
423 0.4% 12%  
424 0.5% 11%  
425 5% 11%  
426 1.2% 6%  
427 0.4% 5%  
428 1.3% 4%  
429 0.6% 3%  
430 0.6% 2%  
431 0.6% 2%  
432 0.1% 1.2%  
433 0.1% 1.1%  
434 0.3% 1.0%  
435 0.1% 0.7%  
436 0.1% 0.7%  
437 0.2% 0.5%  
438 0% 0.3%  
439 0.1% 0.3%  
440 0% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.8%  
372 0% 99.7%  
373 0.1% 99.7%  
374 0.1% 99.6%  
375 0.3% 99.5%  
376 0.7% 99.2%  
377 0% 98%  
378 0% 98%  
379 0% 98%  
380 0% 98%  
381 0.1% 98%  
382 2% 98%  
383 0.8% 96%  
384 0.2% 96%  
385 0.1% 95%  
386 0.1% 95%  
387 0.3% 95%  
388 0.7% 95%  
389 0.5% 94%  
390 4% 94%  
391 3% 89%  
392 3% 87%  
393 0.9% 84%  
394 2% 83%  
395 11% 81%  
396 2% 70%  
397 0.9% 68%  
398 3% 67%  
399 6% 63%  
400 12% 57% Median
401 0.8% 45%  
402 2% 45%  
403 1.3% 43%  
404 1.4% 41%  
405 1.1% 40%  
406 10% 39%  
407 0.7% 29%  
408 1.3% 28%  
409 1.4% 27%  
410 1.2% 26%  
411 4% 24%  
412 0.6% 21%  
413 0.4% 20%  
414 0.7% 20%  
415 3% 19%  
416 0.7% 16%  
417 3% 16%  
418 1.1% 13%  
419 0.2% 12%  
420 0.6% 11%  
421 0.6% 11%  
422 6% 10%  
423 1.2% 4%  
424 0.7% 3%  
425 0.2% 2%  
426 0.3% 2%  
427 0.3% 2%  
428 0.3% 2%  
429 0.3% 1.4%  
430 0.2% 1.0%  
431 0.1% 0.8%  
432 0.1% 0.7%  
433 0.2% 0.6%  
434 0.1% 0.3%  
435 0% 0.3%  
436 0.1% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.8%  
372 0% 99.7%  
373 0.1% 99.7%  
374 0.1% 99.6%  
375 0.3% 99.5%  
376 0.7% 99.2%  
377 0% 98%  
378 0% 98%  
379 0% 98%  
380 0% 98%  
381 0.1% 98%  
382 2% 98%  
383 0.8% 96%  
384 0.2% 96%  
385 0.1% 95%  
386 0.1% 95%  
387 0.3% 95%  
388 0.7% 95%  
389 0.5% 94%  
390 4% 94%  
391 3% 89%  
392 3% 87%  
393 0.9% 84%  
394 2% 83%  
395 11% 81%  
396 2% 70%  
397 0.9% 68%  
398 3% 67%  
399 6% 63%  
400 12% 57% Median
401 0.8% 45%  
402 2% 45%  
403 1.3% 43%  
404 1.4% 41%  
405 1.1% 40%  
406 10% 39%  
407 0.7% 29%  
408 1.3% 28%  
409 1.4% 27%  
410 1.2% 26%  
411 4% 24%  
412 0.6% 21%  
413 0.4% 20%  
414 0.7% 20%  
415 3% 19%  
416 0.7% 16%  
417 3% 16%  
418 1.1% 13%  
419 0.2% 12%  
420 0.6% 11%  
421 0.6% 11%  
422 6% 10%  
423 1.2% 4%  
424 0.7% 3%  
425 0.2% 2%  
426 0.3% 2%  
427 0.3% 2%  
428 0.3% 2%  
429 0.3% 1.4%  
430 0.2% 1.0%  
431 0.1% 0.8%  
432 0.1% 0.7%  
433 0.2% 0.6%  
434 0.1% 0.3%  
435 0% 0.3%  
436 0.1% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9% Last Result
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.8% Majority
327 0% 99.7%  
328 0% 99.7%  
329 0.1% 99.6%  
330 0% 99.6%  
331 0.7% 99.5%  
332 0.1% 98.8%  
333 0.1% 98.7%  
334 0.2% 98.6%  
335 0.1% 98%  
336 0.2% 98%  
337 0.1% 98%  
338 0.2% 98%  
339 0.1% 98%  
340 1.2% 98%  
341 0.7% 96%  
342 1.3% 96%  
343 0.3% 95%  
344 0.2% 94%  
345 0.6% 94%  
346 0.3% 93%  
347 1.2% 93%  
348 4% 92%  
349 0.7% 88%  
350 2% 88%  
351 0.8% 85%  
352 8% 85%  
353 1.2% 77%  
354 1.2% 75%  
355 2% 74%  
356 3% 72%  
357 4% 70%  
358 3% 65%  
359 5% 63%  
360 2% 58%  
361 2% 56% Median
362 11% 55%  
363 2% 43%  
364 0.5% 41%  
365 3% 40%  
366 0.8% 37%  
367 1.2% 36%  
368 2% 35%  
369 9% 33%  
370 2% 24%  
371 0.5% 22%  
372 0.3% 22%  
373 0.7% 21%  
374 0.3% 21%  
375 1.2% 20%  
376 3% 19%  
377 0.7% 16%  
378 3% 15%  
379 0.9% 13%  
380 0.6% 12%  
381 0.8% 11%  
382 2% 10%  
383 0.6% 9%  
384 0.3% 8%  
385 5% 8%  
386 0.3% 3%  
387 0.5% 3%  
388 0% 2%  
389 0.1% 2%  
390 0.3% 2%  
391 0.1% 2%  
392 0.5% 2%  
393 0.3% 1.3%  
394 0.2% 1.0%  
395 0% 0.8%  
396 0.4% 0.8%  
397 0% 0.3%  
398 0% 0.3%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0.1% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9% Last Result
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.8%  
320 0.1% 99.8%  
321 0.1% 99.7%  
322 0.1% 99.6%  
323 0% 99.6%  
324 0% 99.5%  
325 0.1% 99.5%  
326 0.1% 99.4% Majority
327 0.7% 99.3%  
328 0% 98.6%  
329 0.4% 98.6%  
330 0.3% 98%  
331 0.1% 98%  
332 0.1% 98%  
333 0% 98%  
334 0.6% 98%  
335 2% 97%  
336 0.7% 96%  
337 0.1% 95%  
338 0.7% 95%  
339 0.8% 94%  
340 0.1% 93%  
341 3% 93%  
342 2% 90%  
343 2% 88%  
344 2% 86%  
345 2% 84%  
346 1.2% 82%  
347 8% 81%  
348 0.3% 73%  
349 3% 73%  
350 1.3% 70%  
351 7% 69%  
352 0.5% 62%  
353 13% 62% Median
354 6% 48%  
355 2% 43%  
356 0.8% 41%  
357 0.2% 40%  
358 0.6% 40%  
359 9% 39%  
360 1.5% 30%  
361 4% 28%  
362 1.2% 24%  
363 1.4% 23%  
364 0.9% 22%  
365 0.5% 21%  
366 0.2% 20%  
367 0.2% 20%  
368 0.2% 20%  
369 3% 20%  
370 3% 17%  
371 2% 14%  
372 2% 12%  
373 0.2% 11%  
374 0.4% 10%  
375 5% 10%  
376 0.2% 5%  
377 0.7% 5%  
378 0.4% 4%  
379 1.1% 4%  
380 0.2% 3%  
381 0.3% 2%  
382 0.5% 2%  
383 0.3% 2%  
384 0.1% 1.4%  
385 0.3% 1.2%  
386 0.3% 1.0%  
387 0.3% 0.7%  
388 0.1% 0.4%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.8% Last Result
318 0% 99.8%  
319 0.1% 99.8%  
320 0.1% 99.7%  
321 0.1% 99.7%  
322 0% 99.6%  
323 0% 99.5%  
324 0% 99.5%  
325 0.1% 99.5%  
326 0.1% 99.4% Majority
327 0.7% 99.3%  
328 0% 98.5%  
329 0.3% 98%  
330 0.3% 98%  
331 0.1% 98%  
332 0.1% 98%  
333 1.2% 98%  
334 0.6% 96%  
335 0.4% 96%  
336 0.7% 95%  
337 0.1% 95%  
338 1.0% 95%  
339 0.5% 94%  
340 0.7% 93%  
341 3% 92%  
342 1.1% 89%  
343 3% 88%  
344 2% 85%  
345 2% 83%  
346 2% 81%  
347 6% 79%  
348 2% 73%  
349 3% 71%  
350 4% 68%  
351 1.5% 63%  
352 0.8% 62%  
353 16% 61% Median
354 4% 46%  
355 1.4% 42%  
356 0.7% 41%  
357 0.2% 40%  
358 0.7% 40%  
359 10% 39%  
360 2% 29%  
361 4% 28%  
362 0.9% 24%  
363 1.3% 23%  
364 0.9% 22%  
365 0.5% 21%  
366 0.1% 20%  
367 0.6% 20%  
368 3% 20%  
369 3% 17%  
370 0.6% 14%  
371 1.3% 14%  
372 2% 12%  
373 0.2% 10%  
374 0.5% 10%  
375 5% 10%  
376 0.4% 5%  
377 0.7% 5%  
378 1.3% 4%  
379 0.1% 3%  
380 0.2% 3%  
381 0.3% 2%  
382 0.5% 2%  
383 0.3% 2%  
384 0.2% 1.3%  
385 0.2% 1.2%  
386 0.2% 0.9%  
387 0.4% 0.7%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0.1% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.8% Last Result
318 0% 99.8%  
319 0.1% 99.8%  
320 0.1% 99.7%  
321 0.1% 99.7%  
322 0% 99.6%  
323 0% 99.5%  
324 0% 99.5%  
325 0.1% 99.5%  
326 0.1% 99.4% Majority
327 0.7% 99.3%  
328 0% 98.5%  
329 0.3% 98%  
330 0.3% 98%  
331 0.1% 98%  
332 0.1% 98%  
333 1.2% 98%  
334 0.6% 96%  
335 0.4% 96%  
336 0.7% 95%  
337 0.1% 95%  
338 1.0% 95%  
339 0.5% 94%  
340 0.7% 93%  
341 3% 92%  
342 1.1% 89%  
343 3% 88%  
344 2% 85%  
345 2% 83%  
346 2% 81%  
347 6% 79%  
348 2% 73%  
349 3% 71%  
350 4% 68%  
351 1.5% 63%  
352 0.8% 62%  
353 16% 61% Median
354 4% 46%  
355 1.4% 42%  
356 0.7% 41%  
357 0.2% 40%  
358 0.7% 40%  
359 10% 39%  
360 2% 29%  
361 4% 28%  
362 0.9% 24%  
363 1.3% 23%  
364 0.9% 22%  
365 0.5% 21%  
366 0.1% 20%  
367 0.6% 20%  
368 3% 20%  
369 3% 17%  
370 0.6% 14%  
371 1.3% 14%  
372 2% 12%  
373 0.2% 10%  
374 0.5% 10%  
375 5% 10%  
376 0.4% 5%  
377 0.7% 5%  
378 1.3% 4%  
379 0.1% 3%  
380 0.2% 3%  
381 0.3% 2%  
382 0.5% 2%  
383 0.3% 2%  
384 0.2% 1.3%  
385 0.2% 1.2%  
386 0.2% 0.9%  
387 0.4% 0.7%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0.1% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.8%  
243 0% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.7%  
245 0.3% 99.6%  
246 0.3% 99.3%  
247 0.3% 99.0%  
248 0.1% 98.8%  
249 0.3% 98.6%  
250 0.5% 98%  
251 0.3% 98%  
252 0.2% 98%  
253 1.1% 97%  
254 0.4% 96%  
255 0.7% 96%  
256 0.2% 95%  
257 5% 95%  
258 0.4% 90%  
259 0.2% 90%  
260 2% 89%  
261 2% 88%  
262 3% 86%  
263 3% 83%  
264 0.2% 80%  
265 0.2% 80%  
266 0.2% 80%  
267 0.5% 80%  
268 0.9% 79%  
269 1.4% 78%  
270 1.2% 77%  
271 4% 76%  
272 2% 72%  
273 9% 70%  
274 0.6% 61%  
275 0.2% 60%  
276 0.8% 60%  
277 2% 59% Median
278 5% 57%  
279 13% 52%  
280 0.5% 38%  
281 7% 38%  
282 1.3% 31%  
283 3% 30%  
284 0.3% 27%  
285 8% 27%  
286 1.2% 19%  
287 2% 18%  
288 2% 16%  
289 2% 14%  
290 2% 12%  
291 3% 10%  
292 0.1% 7%  
293 0.8% 7%  
294 0.7% 6%  
295 0.1% 5%  
296 0.7% 5%  
297 2% 4%  
298 0.6% 3%  
299 0% 2%  
300 0.1% 2%  
301 0.1% 2%  
302 0.3% 2%  
303 0.4% 2%  
304 0% 1.4%  
305 0.7% 1.4%  
306 0.1% 0.7%  
307 0.1% 0.6%  
308 0% 0.5%  
309 0% 0.5%  
310 0.1% 0.4%  
311 0.1% 0.4%  
312 0.1% 0.3%  
313 0% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.2% Last Result
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.8%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.7%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.3% 99.6%  
245 0.3% 99.3%  
246 0.3% 99.0%  
247 0.1% 98.7%  
248 0.5% 98.6%  
249 0.3% 98%  
250 0.3% 98%  
251 1.2% 97%  
252 0.4% 96%  
253 0.4% 96%  
254 0.7% 96%  
255 0.3% 95%  
256 5% 95%  
257 0.4% 90%  
258 0.5% 90%  
259 2% 89%  
260 1.2% 87%  
261 3% 86%  
262 3% 83%  
263 0.2% 80%  
264 0.2% 80%  
265 0.4% 80%  
266 0.7% 79%  
267 0.8% 79%  
268 2% 78%  
269 3% 76%  
270 2% 73%  
271 0.9% 70%  
272 9% 70%  
273 0.6% 61%  
274 0.9% 60%  
275 2% 59%  
276 3% 58% Median
277 12% 55%  
278 5% 43%  
279 4% 38%  
280 3% 34%  
281 4% 31%  
282 0.4% 27%  
283 0.8% 27%  
284 7% 26%  
285 2% 19%  
286 2% 17%  
287 3% 15%  
288 0.7% 12%  
289 4% 11%  
290 0.1% 7%  
291 0.5% 7%  
292 0.9% 6%  
293 0.2% 5%  
294 0.3% 5%  
295 2% 5%  
296 0.7% 3%  
297 0.1% 2%  
298 0.1% 2%  
299 0.1% 2%  
300 0% 2%  
301 0.3% 2%  
302 0.3% 2%  
303 0.1% 1.4%  
304 0.7% 1.3%  
305 0.1% 0.6%  
306 0% 0.5%  
307 0% 0.5%  
308 0% 0.4%  
309 0.1% 0.4%  
310 0.1% 0.3%  
311 0.1% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.2% Last Result
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.8%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0% 99.8%  
233 0% 99.7%  
234 0% 99.7%  
235 0.4% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.2%  
237 0.5% 99.1%  
238 0.1% 98.6%  
239 0.4% 98.5%  
240 0.1% 98%  
241 0.4% 98%  
242 0.3% 98%  
243 0.1% 97%  
244 0.3% 97%  
245 0.3% 97%  
246 5% 97%  
247 1.4% 92%  
248 0.4% 91%  
249 1.0% 90%  
250 0.6% 89%  
251 3% 89%  
252 1.0% 86%  
253 0.6% 85%  
254 0.7% 84%  
255 3% 83%  
256 0.8% 80%  
257 0.6% 79%  
258 0.6% 78%  
259 0.4% 78%  
260 0.5% 77%  
261 2% 77%  
262 9% 75%  
263 3% 66%  
264 0.3% 64%  
265 3% 63%  
266 0.7% 60%  
267 3% 59%  
268 11% 56% Median
269 1.0% 45%  
270 4% 44%  
271 4% 40%  
272 1.3% 36%  
273 3% 35%  
274 4% 31%  
275 2% 27%  
276 0.9% 26%  
277 2% 25%  
278 2% 22%  
279 7% 20%  
280 0.9% 14%  
281 1.2% 13%  
282 3% 12%  
283 0.8% 8%  
284 0.7% 7%  
285 0.8% 7%  
286 0.2% 6%  
287 0.7% 6%  
288 2% 5%  
289 0.8% 3%  
290 0.3% 3%  
291 0.1% 2%  
292 0.1% 2%  
293 0.1% 2%  
294 0.1% 2%  
295 0.2% 2%  
296 0.1% 2%  
297 0.3% 1.5%  
298 0.1% 1.2%  
299 0.1% 1.2%  
300 0.7% 1.1%  
301 0.1% 0.4%  
302 0.1% 0.4%  
303 0.1% 0.3%  
304 0% 0.2%  
305 0.1% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1% Last Result
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0% 99.7%  
197 0.1% 99.7%  
198 0.2% 99.6%  
199 0.1% 99.4%  
200 0.3% 99.2%  
201 0.1% 99.0%  
202 0.4% 98.9%  
203 0.5% 98.5%  
204 0.3% 98%  
205 0.2% 98%  
206 0.3% 98%  
207 2% 97%  
208 2% 95%  
209 5% 94%  
210 0.4% 89%  
211 0.8% 89%  
212 0.2% 88%  
213 1.0% 88%  
214 5% 87%  
215 0.8% 81%  
216 0.9% 81%  
217 0.3% 80%  
218 0.3% 79%  
219 3% 79%  
220 2% 77%  
221 0.7% 74%  
222 2% 74%  
223 1.5% 72%  
224 0.3% 70%  
225 10% 70%  
226 2% 60%  
227 0.9% 58%  
228 0.4% 57%  
229 2% 57% Median
230 12% 55%  
231 5% 43%  
232 4% 38%  
233 2% 34%  
234 6% 32%  
235 2% 26%  
236 7% 24%  
237 2% 17%  
238 2% 15%  
239 3% 13%  
240 4% 11%  
241 0.8% 7%  
242 0.6% 6%  
243 0.4% 5%  
244 0.2% 5%  
245 0.1% 5%  
246 1.2% 5%  
247 0.4% 3%  
248 1.2% 3%  
249 0.1% 2%  
250 0% 2%  
251 0% 2%  
252 0% 2%  
253 0.1% 2%  
254 0.1% 1.4%  
255 0.7% 1.4%  
256 0.3% 0.7%  
257 0.1% 0.4%  
258 0% 0.3%  
259 0% 0.3%  
260 0.1% 0.2%  
261 0.1% 0.2%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0.1% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0.1% 99.8%  
192 0.1% 99.8%  
193 0% 99.6%  
194 0.2% 99.6%  
195 0.1% 99.4%  
196 0.1% 99.3%  
197 0.2% 99.2%  
198 0.3% 98.9%  
199 0.1% 98.7%  
200 0.5% 98.5%  
201 2% 98%  
202 0.3% 96%  
203 0.3% 96%  
204 0.5% 96%  
205 2% 95%  
206 5% 93%  
207 0.2% 89%  
208 0.8% 88%  
209 0.3% 88%  
210 0.5% 87%  
211 3% 87%  
212 3% 84%  
213 0.9% 81%  
214 0.7% 80%  
215 0.5% 79%  
216 0.3% 78%  
217 1.2% 78%  
218 1.1% 77%  
219 0.8% 76%  
220 5% 75%  
221 1.0% 70%  
222 10% 69%  
223 0.3% 60%  
224 0.4% 59%  
225 3% 59%  
226 1.2% 56% Median
227 13% 55%  
228 7% 41%  
229 3% 34%  
230 4% 31%  
231 3% 27%  
232 0.5% 25%  
233 1.1% 24%  
234 9% 23%  
235 2% 14%  
236 4% 12%  
237 0.2% 8%  
238 1.0% 8%  
239 0.6% 7%  
240 0.6% 7%  
241 0.6% 6%  
242 1.3% 5%  
243 1.0% 4%  
244 0.5% 3%  
245 0.1% 3%  
246 0.2% 3%  
247 0.1% 2%  
248 0.4% 2%  
249 0.1% 2%  
250 0.1% 2%  
251 0.9% 2%  
252 0.1% 0.8%  
253 0.1% 0.7%  
254 0% 0.6%  
255 0% 0.5%  
256 0.2% 0.5%  
257 0% 0.3%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.2%  
261 0% 0.2%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0.1% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0.1% 99.8%  
187 0% 99.8%  
188 0.1% 99.7%  
189 0.1% 99.6%  
190 0.2% 99.6%  
191 0.2% 99.4%  
192 0.6% 99.2%  
193 0.2% 98.6%  
194 0.1% 98%  
195 0.3% 98%  
196 0.5% 98%  
197 0.3% 98%  
198 0.5% 97%  
199 5% 97%  
200 0.4% 92%  
201 0.6% 92%  
202 0.4% 91%  
203 2% 91%  
204 3% 89%  
205 0.4% 86%  
206 1.4% 85%  
207 3% 84%  
208 0.7% 81%  
209 0.7% 80%  
210 0.6% 79%  
211 0.6% 79%  
212 0.7% 78%  
213 2% 77%  
214 0.5% 76%  
215 13% 75%  
216 1.1% 62%  
217 0.5% 61%  
218 1.1% 60%  
219 1.1% 59%  
220 3% 58%  
221 10% 55% Median
222 2% 46%  
223 3% 44%  
224 4% 41%  
225 5% 36%  
226 2% 32%  
227 1.3% 29%  
228 6% 28%  
229 0.9% 22%  
230 2% 22%  
231 7% 19%  
232 0.9% 12%  
233 3% 11%  
234 1.0% 8%  
235 0.8% 7%  
236 1.3% 6%  
237 0.3% 5%  
238 0.1% 5%  
239 2% 5%  
240 0.5% 3%  
241 0.1% 2%  
242 0.4% 2%  
243 0.1% 2%  
244 0.3% 2%  
245 0% 2%  
246 0.1% 2%  
247 0.1% 1.4%  
248 0.1% 1.3%  
249 0.1% 1.2%  
250 0.1% 1.2%  
251 0.9% 1.1%  
252 0% 0.2%  
253 0.1% 0.2%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
178 0% 100%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.8%  
183 0.1% 99.8%  
184 0.1% 99.7%  
185 0.1% 99.6%  
186 0.1% 99.5%  
187 0.1% 99.4%  
188 0.2% 99.3%  
189 0.2% 99.1%  
190 0.7% 98.9%  
191 0.2% 98%  
192 0.3% 98%  
193 0.4% 98%  
194 0.3% 97%  
195 0.1% 97%  
196 5% 97%  
197 2% 92%  
198 1.4% 90%  
199 0.2% 89%  
200 0.3% 89%  
201 3% 88%  
202 1.2% 85%  
203 0.6% 84%  
204 0.5% 83%  
205 3% 83%  
206 0.5% 80%  
207 1.0% 80%  
208 0.7% 79%  
209 1.4% 78%  
210 1.2% 77%  
211 0.9% 75%  
212 9% 74%  
213 2% 65%  
214 1.0% 64%  
215 0.7% 63%  
216 3% 62%  
217 5% 59%  
218 10% 55% Median
219 4% 44%  
220 4% 41%  
221 1.3% 37%  
222 4% 36%  
223 2% 31%  
224 5% 30%  
225 2% 25%  
226 2% 22%  
227 0.9% 20%  
228 0.9% 19%  
229 8% 19%  
230 1.5% 10%  
231 0.6% 9%  
232 1.2% 8%  
233 0.6% 7%  
234 0.3% 6%  
235 1.3% 6%  
236 0.8% 5%  
237 0.5% 4%  
238 0.6% 3%  
239 0.2% 3%  
240 0.3% 2%  
241 0.1% 2%  
242 0.1% 2%  
243 0.2% 2%  
244 0.1% 2%  
245 0.1% 2%  
246 0.3% 2%  
247 0.7% 1.2%  
248 0.1% 0.5%  
249 0.2% 0.5%  
250 0% 0.3%  
251 0% 0.3%  
252 0.1% 0.2%  
253 0% 0.2%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
178 0% 100%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.8%  
183 0.1% 99.8%  
184 0.1% 99.7%  
185 0.1% 99.6%  
186 0.1% 99.5%  
187 0.1% 99.4%  
188 0.2% 99.3%  
189 0.2% 99.1%  
190 0.7% 98.9%  
191 0.2% 98%  
192 0.3% 98%  
193 0.4% 98%  
194 0.3% 97%  
195 0.1% 97%  
196 5% 97%  
197 2% 92%  
198 1.4% 90%  
199 0.2% 89%  
200 0.3% 89%  
201 3% 88%  
202 1.2% 85%  
203 0.6% 84%  
204 0.5% 83%  
205 3% 83%  
206 0.5% 80%  
207 1.0% 80%  
208 0.7% 79%  
209 1.4% 78%  
210 1.2% 77%  
211 0.9% 75%  
212 9% 74%  
213 2% 65%  
214 1.0% 64%  
215 0.7% 63%  
216 3% 62%  
217 5% 59%  
218 10% 55% Median
219 4% 44%  
220 4% 41%  
221 1.3% 37%  
222 4% 36%  
223 2% 31%  
224 5% 30%  
225 2% 25%  
226 2% 22%  
227 0.9% 20%  
228 0.9% 19%  
229 8% 19%  
230 1.5% 10%  
231 0.6% 9%  
232 1.2% 8%  
233 0.6% 7%  
234 0.3% 6%  
235 1.3% 6%  
236 0.8% 5%  
237 0.5% 4%  
238 0.6% 3%  
239 0.2% 3%  
240 0.3% 2%  
241 0.1% 2%  
242 0.1% 2%  
243 0.2% 2%  
244 0.1% 2%  
245 0.1% 2%  
246 0.3% 2%  
247 0.7% 1.2%  
248 0.1% 0.5%  
249 0.2% 0.5%  
250 0% 0.3%  
251 0% 0.3%  
252 0.1% 0.2%  
253 0% 0.2%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.8%  
148 0.1% 99.7%  
149 0.2% 99.6%  
150 0.1% 99.4%  
151 0.2% 99.3%  
152 0.1% 99.1%  
153 0.2% 99.0%  
154 0.5% 98.8%  
155 0.2% 98%  
156 1.1% 98%  
157 2% 97%  
158 0.8% 95%  
159 5% 94%  
160 0.7% 89%  
161 0.3% 88%  
162 1.0% 88%  
163 0.6% 87%  
164 6% 86%  
165 0.4% 81%  
166 0.3% 80%  
167 0.6% 80%  
168 0.3% 79%  
169 1.4% 79%  
170 3% 78%  
171 1.4% 75%  
172 2% 74%  
173 1.0% 71%  
174 0.7% 70%  
175 10% 69%  
176 2% 59%  
177 0.1% 57%  
178 2% 57%  
179 1.1% 55% Median
180 16% 54%  
181 1.0% 38%  
182 6% 37%  
183 7% 31%  
184 1.1% 24%  
185 2% 23%  
186 8% 21%  
187 5% 13%  
188 1.3% 8%  
189 0.5% 7%  
190 0.6% 6%  
191 0.8% 6%  
192 0.2% 5%  
193 1.2% 5%  
194 0.5% 4%  
195 0.6% 3%  
196 0.1% 3%  
197 0.6% 2%  
198 0.1% 2%  
199 0.1% 2%  
200 0% 2%  
201 0.1% 2%  
202 0.8% 2%  
203 0.1% 0.7%  
204 0.1% 0.6%  
205 0.2% 0.6%  
206 0% 0.3%  
207 0.1% 0.3%  
208 0.1% 0.2%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.8%  
140 0.1% 99.6%  
141 0.1% 99.5%  
142 0.1% 99.4%  
143 0.1% 99.3%  
144 0.3% 99.1%  
145 0.1% 98.8%  
146 0.2% 98.7%  
147 1.1% 98%  
148 0.3% 97%  
149 5% 97%  
150 0.2% 92%  
151 0.7% 92%  
152 1.3% 91%  
153 2% 90%  
154 3% 88%  
155 0.5% 85%  
156 0.5% 85%  
157 4% 84%  
158 0.6% 80%  
159 0.3% 80%  
160 0.6% 79%  
161 0.9% 79%  
162 1.5% 78%  
163 1.0% 76%  
164 1.2% 76%  
165 11% 74%  
166 3% 64%  
167 0.7% 60%  
168 0.5% 60%  
169 2% 59%  
170 3% 57%  
171 10% 55% Median
172 4% 45%  
173 5% 41%  
174 5% 36%  
175 3% 31%  
176 1.1% 28%  
177 3% 27%  
178 5% 25%  
179 1.0% 19%  
180 4% 18%  
181 6% 14%  
182 0.5% 8%  
183 1.5% 8%  
184 0.8% 6%  
185 0.6% 5%  
186 1.5% 5%  
187 0.5% 3%  
188 0.1% 3%  
189 0.1% 3%  
190 0.2% 3%  
191 0.3% 2%  
192 0.1% 2%  
193 0.5% 2%  
194 0.1% 1.5%  
195 0.1% 1.4%  
196 0.1% 1.3%  
197 0.1% 1.2%  
198 0.7% 1.2%  
199 0% 0.5%  
200 0.3% 0.4%  
201 0% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.8%  
140 0.1% 99.6%  
141 0.1% 99.5%  
142 0.1% 99.4%  
143 0.1% 99.3%  
144 0.3% 99.1%  
145 0.1% 98.8%  
146 0.2% 98.7%  
147 1.1% 98%  
148 0.3% 97%  
149 5% 97%  
150 0.2% 92%  
151 0.7% 92%  
152 1.3% 91%  
153 2% 90%  
154 3% 88%  
155 0.5% 85%  
156 0.5% 85%  
157 4% 84%  
158 0.6% 80%  
159 0.3% 80%  
160 0.6% 79%  
161 0.9% 79%  
162 1.5% 78%  
163 1.0% 76%  
164 1.2% 76%  
165 11% 74%  
166 3% 64%  
167 0.7% 60%  
168 0.5% 60%  
169 2% 59%  
170 3% 57%  
171 10% 55% Median
172 4% 45%  
173 5% 41%  
174 5% 36%  
175 3% 31%  
176 1.1% 28%  
177 3% 27%  
178 5% 25%  
179 1.0% 19%  
180 4% 18%  
181 6% 14%  
182 0.5% 8%  
183 1.5% 8%  
184 0.8% 6%  
185 0.6% 5%  
186 1.5% 5%  
187 0.5% 3%  
188 0.1% 3%  
189 0.1% 3%  
190 0.2% 3%  
191 0.3% 2%  
192 0.1% 2%  
193 0.5% 2%  
194 0.1% 1.5%  
195 0.1% 1.4%  
196 0.1% 1.3%  
197 0.1% 1.2%  
198 0.7% 1.2%  
199 0% 0.5%  
200 0.3% 0.4%  
201 0% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations