Opinion Poll by Deltapoll, 18–21 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 36.8% 35.5–38.2% 35.1–38.6% 34.8–39.0% 34.1–39.6%
Labour Party 41.0% 23.9% 22.7–25.1% 22.4–25.5% 22.1–25.8% 21.5–26.4%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 18.9% 17.8–20.1% 17.5–20.4% 17.2–20.7% 16.7–21.2%
Brexit Party 0.0% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Green Party 1.7% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 344 332–358 327–366 320–373 313–378
Labour Party 262 172 152–179 149–187 146–192 138–199
Liberal Democrats 12 60 53–65 50–69 49–69 48–73
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–2
Scottish National Party 35 50 48–54 43–54 43–54 39–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1–2
Plaid Cymru 4 7 4–10 4–11 4–11 4–12
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0% 99.7%  
310 0% 99.6%  
311 0% 99.6%  
312 0.1% 99.6%  
313 0% 99.5%  
314 0% 99.5%  
315 0% 99.4%  
316 0.3% 99.4%  
317 0.3% 99.1% Last Result
318 0.7% 98.9%  
319 0.5% 98%  
320 0.2% 98%  
321 0% 97%  
322 0.2% 97%  
323 0.2% 97%  
324 1.3% 97%  
325 0.3% 96%  
326 0.2% 95% Majority
327 0.5% 95%  
328 0.8% 95%  
329 0.2% 94%  
330 1.2% 94%  
331 2% 93%  
332 1.0% 90%  
333 2% 89%  
334 0.9% 87%  
335 6% 87%  
336 0.8% 81%  
337 2% 80%  
338 1.3% 78%  
339 1.1% 77%  
340 10% 76%  
341 2% 66%  
342 4% 64%  
343 1.0% 60%  
344 16% 59% Median
345 1.1% 43%  
346 6% 42%  
347 6% 36%  
348 1.0% 30%  
349 1.0% 29%  
350 0.2% 28%  
351 1.1% 28%  
352 1.3% 27%  
353 2% 26%  
354 0.4% 24%  
355 2% 24%  
356 0.7% 22%  
357 2% 21%  
358 10% 20%  
359 0.1% 9%  
360 0.8% 9%  
361 0.3% 9%  
362 0.2% 8%  
363 0.3% 8%  
364 0.8% 8%  
365 1.3% 7%  
366 1.0% 6%  
367 0.3% 5%  
368 0.1% 4%  
369 0.9% 4%  
370 0.4% 3%  
371 0.2% 3%  
372 0.3% 3%  
373 0.3% 3%  
374 0.4% 2%  
375 0.7% 2%  
376 0.1% 1.2%  
377 0.5% 1.1%  
378 0.1% 0.5%  
379 0.1% 0.4%  
380 0% 0.4%  
381 0% 0.4%  
382 0.2% 0.4%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0.1% 100%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.8%  
134 0% 99.8%  
135 0.1% 99.8%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0% 99.7%  
138 0.2% 99.6%  
139 0% 99.4%  
140 0.1% 99.4%  
141 0.1% 99.2%  
142 0.2% 99.1%  
143 0.1% 98.9%  
144 0.3% 98.8%  
145 0.4% 98.6%  
146 1.2% 98%  
147 0.7% 97%  
148 0.7% 96%  
149 1.2% 96%  
150 1.4% 94%  
151 0.2% 93%  
152 4% 93%  
153 1.2% 88%  
154 1.3% 87%  
155 0.3% 86%  
156 4% 86%  
157 0.1% 82%  
158 0.7% 82%  
159 0.7% 81%  
160 0.6% 80%  
161 2% 79%  
162 0.9% 78%  
163 2% 77%  
164 4% 75%  
165 4% 71%  
166 0.4% 67%  
167 2% 66%  
168 2% 64%  
169 2% 62%  
170 7% 60%  
171 3% 53%  
172 15% 50% Median
173 1.3% 35%  
174 9% 34%  
175 3% 25%  
176 4% 23%  
177 1.5% 19%  
178 5% 18%  
179 3% 12%  
180 1.0% 9%  
181 0.6% 8%  
182 1.5% 8%  
183 0.4% 6%  
184 0.1% 6%  
185 0.2% 6%  
186 0.4% 6%  
187 0.9% 5%  
188 0.2% 4%  
189 0.8% 4%  
190 0.4% 3%  
191 0% 3%  
192 1.0% 3%  
193 0% 2%  
194 0.4% 2%  
195 0.1% 1.3%  
196 0.1% 1.3%  
197 0.1% 1.2%  
198 0.3% 1.1%  
199 0.5% 0.8%  
200 0% 0.3%  
201 0% 0.2%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 100%  
48 1.3% 99.9%  
49 1.5% 98.7%  
50 4% 97%  
51 0.5% 94%  
52 2% 93%  
53 2% 91%  
54 2% 89%  
55 0.5% 87%  
56 6% 86%  
57 2% 81%  
58 3% 79%  
59 16% 76%  
60 24% 60% Median
61 10% 35%  
62 7% 25%  
63 2% 19%  
64 5% 16%  
65 3% 12%  
66 1.4% 9%  
67 1.2% 7%  
68 0.5% 6%  
69 4% 6%  
70 0.2% 2%  
71 0.8% 1.4%  
72 0.1% 0.6%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 3%  
2 0.5% 0.8%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 1.3% 100%  
40 0.5% 98.6%  
41 0.3% 98%  
42 0% 98%  
43 3% 98%  
44 0% 95%  
45 2% 95%  
46 1.2% 92%  
47 0.5% 91%  
48 30% 91%  
49 8% 60%  
50 3% 52% Median
51 21% 49%  
52 6% 28%  
53 2% 22%  
54 20% 20%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 12% 99.9% Last Result
5 1.4% 88%  
6 2% 87%  
7 56% 85% Median
8 12% 28%  
9 5% 16%  
10 2% 12%  
11 8% 10%  
12 1.2% 1.5%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 404 100% 394–419 389–427 382–429 376–436
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 404 100% 394–419 389–427 382–429 376–436
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 399 100% 390–419 383–423 378–427 370–437
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 392 100% 383–412 376–416 371–419 365–429
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 351 98% 339–367 334–374 327–381 319–386
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 344 95% 332–358 327–366 320–373 313–378
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 344 95% 332–358 327–366 320–373 313–378
Conservative Party 317 344 95% 332–358 327–366 320–373 313–378
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 314 288 0.1% 274–300 266–305 259–312 254–319
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 287 0.1% 273–299 265–304 258–311 253–318
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 280 0% 264–292 257–297 250–304 245–311
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 239 0% 219–248 215–255 212–260 202–266
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 232 0% 212–241 208–248 204–253 194–261
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 232 0% 212–241 208–248 204–253 194–261
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 227 0% 212–237 204–242 202–249 195–255
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 220 0% 204–230 197–235 194–243 188–250
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 179 0% 160–186 156–193 154–198 146–205
Labour Party – Change UK 262 172 0% 152–179 149–187 146–192 138–199
Labour Party 262 172 0% 152–179 149–187 146–192 138–199

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.8%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.7%  
375 0.1% 99.6%  
376 0% 99.5%  
377 0.8% 99.5%  
378 0.2% 98.7%  
379 0.2% 98.5%  
380 0.1% 98%  
381 0.1% 98%  
382 1.0% 98%  
383 0.2% 97%  
384 0.3% 97%  
385 0.7% 97%  
386 0.1% 96%  
387 0.4% 96%  
388 0.2% 95%  
389 0.5% 95%  
390 0.4% 95%  
391 0.2% 94%  
392 1.4% 94%  
393 2% 93%  
394 2% 90%  
395 6% 89%  
396 1.1% 83%  
397 6% 82%  
398 0.7% 76%  
399 10% 75%  
400 1.1% 65%  
401 1.5% 64%  
402 1.2% 62%  
403 2% 61%  
404 15% 59% Median
405 5% 45%  
406 4% 40%  
407 1.1% 36%  
408 4% 34%  
409 1.3% 30%  
410 0.6% 29%  
411 5% 28%  
412 1.5% 24%  
413 0.7% 22%  
414 5% 22%  
415 2% 17%  
416 0.2% 15%  
417 0.8% 15%  
418 0.4% 14%  
419 5% 14%  
420 0.7% 9%  
421 0.3% 8%  
422 0.6% 8%  
423 0.2% 7%  
424 0.9% 7%  
425 0.5% 6%  
426 0.8% 6%  
427 2% 5%  
428 0.3% 4%  
429 2% 3%  
430 0.3% 2%  
431 0.3% 1.4%  
432 0.4% 1.1%  
433 0.1% 0.7%  
434 0% 0.6%  
435 0% 0.5%  
436 0.2% 0.5%  
437 0% 0.3%  
438 0% 0.3%  
439 0% 0.3%  
440 0.1% 0.3%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0% 0.2%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0.1% 0.1%  
445 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.8%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.7%  
375 0.1% 99.6%  
376 0% 99.5%  
377 0.8% 99.5%  
378 0.2% 98.7%  
379 0.2% 98.5%  
380 0.1% 98%  
381 0.1% 98%  
382 1.0% 98%  
383 0.2% 97%  
384 0.3% 97%  
385 0.7% 97%  
386 0.1% 96%  
387 0.4% 96%  
388 0.2% 95%  
389 0.5% 95%  
390 0.4% 95%  
391 0.2% 94%  
392 1.4% 94%  
393 2% 93%  
394 2% 90%  
395 6% 89%  
396 1.1% 83%  
397 6% 82%  
398 0.7% 76%  
399 10% 75%  
400 1.1% 65%  
401 1.5% 64%  
402 1.2% 62%  
403 2% 61%  
404 15% 59% Median
405 5% 45%  
406 4% 40%  
407 1.1% 36%  
408 4% 34%  
409 1.3% 30%  
410 0.6% 29%  
411 5% 28%  
412 1.5% 24%  
413 0.7% 22%  
414 5% 22%  
415 2% 17%  
416 0.2% 15%  
417 0.8% 15%  
418 0.4% 14%  
419 5% 14%  
420 0.7% 9%  
421 0.3% 8%  
422 0.6% 8%  
423 0.2% 7%  
424 0.9% 7%  
425 0.5% 6%  
426 0.8% 6%  
427 2% 5%  
428 0.3% 4%  
429 2% 3%  
430 0.3% 2%  
431 0.3% 1.4%  
432 0.4% 1.1%  
433 0.1% 0.7%  
434 0% 0.6%  
435 0% 0.5%  
436 0.2% 0.5%  
437 0% 0.3%  
438 0% 0.3%  
439 0% 0.3%  
440 0.1% 0.3%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0% 0.2%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0.1% 0.1%  
445 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100% Last Result
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.8%  
364 0% 99.8%  
365 0% 99.8%  
366 0% 99.7%  
367 0% 99.7%  
368 0% 99.7%  
369 0.1% 99.7%  
370 0.1% 99.6%  
371 0% 99.5%  
372 0.2% 99.4%  
373 0.1% 99.3%  
374 0.6% 99.2%  
375 0.7% 98.7%  
376 0.3% 98%  
377 0.1% 98%  
378 0.2% 98%  
379 0.3% 97%  
380 0.1% 97%  
381 1.1% 97%  
382 0.4% 96%  
383 1.1% 95%  
384 0.5% 94%  
385 0.1% 94%  
386 1.0% 94%  
387 1.0% 93%  
388 0.3% 92%  
389 1.3% 91%  
390 2% 90%  
391 0.7% 88%  
392 2% 88%  
393 6% 86%  
394 1.0% 81%  
395 2% 80%  
396 0.6% 78%  
397 0.2% 77%  
398 15% 77%  
399 17% 62%  
400 2% 45%  
401 1.1% 43% Median
402 6% 42%  
403 0.9% 36%  
404 1.4% 35%  
405 2% 34%  
406 1.4% 32%  
407 4% 31%  
408 2% 27%  
409 0.5% 25%  
410 0.6% 25%  
411 0.2% 24%  
412 0.9% 24%  
413 0.4% 23%  
414 3% 22%  
415 0.2% 19%  
416 1.0% 19%  
417 0.4% 18%  
418 5% 18%  
419 4% 13%  
420 2% 9%  
421 1.2% 7%  
422 0.3% 6%  
423 0.5% 5%  
424 0.3% 5%  
425 2% 5%  
426 0.1% 3%  
427 0.4% 3%  
428 0.3% 2%  
429 0.3% 2%  
430 0.1% 2%  
431 0.3% 2%  
432 0.1% 1.5%  
433 0.4% 1.4%  
434 0.2% 1.0%  
435 0.1% 0.8%  
436 0.2% 0.7%  
437 0.1% 0.5%  
438 0.1% 0.5%  
439 0.1% 0.4%  
440 0.1% 0.3%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0.1% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100% Last Result
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.9%  
356 0% 99.8%  
357 0% 99.8%  
358 0% 99.8%  
359 0% 99.7%  
360 0% 99.7%  
361 0.1% 99.7%  
362 0% 99.6%  
363 0.1% 99.6%  
364 0% 99.5%  
365 0.2% 99.5%  
366 0% 99.3%  
367 0.1% 99.3%  
368 0.1% 99.2%  
369 0.3% 99.1%  
370 0.6% 98.8%  
371 1.0% 98%  
372 0% 97%  
373 0.1% 97%  
374 0.1% 97%  
375 2% 97%  
376 0.4% 95%  
377 0.3% 95%  
378 0.5% 95%  
379 2% 94%  
380 0.6% 92%  
381 0.3% 92%  
382 0.8% 91%  
383 1.1% 90%  
384 2% 89%  
385 0.5% 88%  
386 6% 87%  
387 2% 81%  
388 2% 80%  
389 0.7% 78%  
390 2% 77%  
391 15% 75%  
392 16% 60%  
393 0.8% 44%  
394 3% 43% Median
395 5% 40%  
396 2% 35%  
397 1.3% 33%  
398 0.5% 32%  
399 2% 31%  
400 4% 29%  
401 0.3% 25%  
402 1.0% 25%  
403 0.9% 24%  
404 0.2% 23%  
405 0.9% 23%  
406 0.1% 22%  
407 3% 22%  
408 0.6% 19%  
409 2% 19%  
410 5% 17%  
411 1.0% 12%  
412 4% 11%  
413 1.1% 7%  
414 0.6% 6%  
415 0.2% 5%  
416 0.8% 5%  
417 1.1% 4%  
418 0.9% 3%  
419 0.2% 3%  
420 0.4% 2%  
421 0.2% 2%  
422 0.3% 2%  
423 0.3% 2%  
424 0.1% 1.3%  
425 0.1% 1.2%  
426 0.1% 1.1%  
427 0.2% 1.0%  
428 0.2% 0.8%  
429 0.2% 0.6%  
430 0.1% 0.4%  
431 0.1% 0.3%  
432 0% 0.2%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0.1% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.7%  
317 0.1% 99.6%  
318 0% 99.6%  
319 0% 99.5%  
320 0% 99.5%  
321 0.1% 99.5% Last Result
322 0.7% 99.4%  
323 0.8% 98.7%  
324 0.3% 98%  
325 0% 98%  
326 0% 98% Majority
327 0.2% 98%  
328 0% 97%  
329 0.3% 97%  
330 1.1% 97%  
331 0.5% 96%  
332 0.2% 96%  
333 0.3% 95%  
334 0.3% 95%  
335 2% 95%  
336 0.7% 93%  
337 0.3% 92%  
338 2% 92%  
339 1.3% 90%  
340 0.6% 89%  
341 2% 88%  
342 6% 87%  
343 0.5% 81%  
344 2% 80%  
345 0.4% 78%  
346 1.2% 77%  
347 9% 76%  
348 0.6% 67%  
349 4% 66%  
350 4% 63%  
351 16% 59% Median
352 2% 43%  
353 3% 41%  
354 7% 38%  
355 2% 31%  
356 0.4% 30%  
357 0.7% 29%  
358 1.2% 28%  
359 0.9% 27%  
360 0.5% 26%  
361 0.6% 26%  
362 0.9% 25%  
363 2% 24%  
364 2% 23%  
365 6% 21%  
366 5% 16%  
367 2% 11%  
368 0.8% 9%  
369 0.5% 8%  
370 0.2% 8%  
371 0.6% 8%  
372 1.3% 7%  
373 0.7% 6%  
374 0.4% 5%  
375 0.2% 5%  
376 0.1% 5%  
377 1.1% 4%  
378 0.3% 3%  
379 0.1% 3%  
380 0.3% 3%  
381 0.4% 3%  
382 0.8% 2%  
383 0.1% 1.5%  
384 0.6% 1.4%  
385 0.1% 0.8%  
386 0.2% 0.7%  
387 0.1% 0.5%  
388 0% 0.4%  
389 0% 0.4%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0% 99.7%  
310 0% 99.6%  
311 0% 99.6%  
312 0.1% 99.6%  
313 0% 99.5%  
314 0.1% 99.5%  
315 0% 99.4%  
316 0.3% 99.4%  
317 0.3% 99.2% Last Result
318 0.7% 98.9%  
319 0.5% 98%  
320 0.3% 98%  
321 0% 97%  
322 0.2% 97%  
323 0.2% 97%  
324 1.3% 97%  
325 0.3% 96%  
326 0.2% 95% Majority
327 0.5% 95%  
328 0.8% 95%  
329 0.2% 94%  
330 1.2% 94%  
331 2% 93%  
332 0.8% 90%  
333 2% 89%  
334 0.9% 88%  
335 6% 87%  
336 0.7% 81%  
337 2% 80%  
338 1.3% 79%  
339 1.1% 77%  
340 10% 76%  
341 2% 66%  
342 4% 64%  
343 1.0% 60%  
344 16% 59% Median
345 1.2% 43%  
346 5% 42%  
347 7% 37%  
348 0.8% 30%  
349 1.1% 30%  
350 0.2% 28%  
351 1.2% 28%  
352 1.3% 27%  
353 2% 26%  
354 0.4% 24%  
355 2% 24%  
356 0.7% 22%  
357 2% 21%  
358 10% 20%  
359 0.1% 9%  
360 0.8% 9%  
361 0.3% 9%  
362 0.2% 8%  
363 0.3% 8%  
364 0.8% 8%  
365 1.2% 7%  
366 0.9% 6%  
367 0.4% 5%  
368 0.1% 4%  
369 0.9% 4%  
370 0.4% 3%  
371 0.2% 3%  
372 0.3% 3%  
373 0.3% 3%  
374 0.4% 2%  
375 0.7% 2%  
376 0.1% 1.2%  
377 0.5% 1.1%  
378 0.1% 0.5%  
379 0.1% 0.4%  
380 0% 0.4%  
381 0% 0.4%  
382 0.2% 0.4%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0% 99.7%  
310 0% 99.6%  
311 0% 99.6%  
312 0.1% 99.6%  
313 0% 99.5%  
314 0% 99.5%  
315 0% 99.4%  
316 0.3% 99.4%  
317 0.3% 99.1% Last Result
318 0.7% 98.9%  
319 0.5% 98%  
320 0.2% 98%  
321 0% 97%  
322 0.2% 97%  
323 0.2% 97%  
324 1.3% 97%  
325 0.3% 96%  
326 0.2% 95% Majority
327 0.5% 95%  
328 0.8% 95%  
329 0.2% 94%  
330 1.2% 94%  
331 2% 93%  
332 1.0% 90%  
333 2% 89%  
334 0.9% 87%  
335 6% 87%  
336 0.8% 81%  
337 2% 80%  
338 1.3% 78%  
339 1.1% 77%  
340 10% 76%  
341 2% 66%  
342 4% 64%  
343 1.0% 60%  
344 16% 59% Median
345 1.1% 43%  
346 6% 42%  
347 6% 36%  
348 1.0% 30%  
349 1.0% 29%  
350 0.2% 28%  
351 1.1% 28%  
352 1.3% 27%  
353 2% 26%  
354 0.4% 24%  
355 2% 24%  
356 0.7% 22%  
357 2% 21%  
358 10% 20%  
359 0.1% 9%  
360 0.8% 9%  
361 0.3% 9%  
362 0.2% 8%  
363 0.3% 8%  
364 0.8% 8%  
365 1.3% 7%  
366 1.0% 6%  
367 0.3% 5%  
368 0.1% 4%  
369 0.9% 4%  
370 0.4% 3%  
371 0.2% 3%  
372 0.3% 3%  
373 0.3% 3%  
374 0.4% 2%  
375 0.7% 2%  
376 0.1% 1.2%  
377 0.5% 1.1%  
378 0.1% 0.5%  
379 0.1% 0.4%  
380 0% 0.4%  
381 0% 0.4%  
382 0.2% 0.4%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0% 99.7%  
310 0% 99.6%  
311 0% 99.6%  
312 0.1% 99.6%  
313 0% 99.5%  
314 0% 99.5%  
315 0% 99.4%  
316 0.3% 99.4%  
317 0.3% 99.1% Last Result
318 0.7% 98.9%  
319 0.5% 98%  
320 0.2% 98%  
321 0% 97%  
322 0.2% 97%  
323 0.2% 97%  
324 1.3% 97%  
325 0.3% 96%  
326 0.2% 95% Majority
327 0.5% 95%  
328 0.8% 95%  
329 0.2% 94%  
330 1.2% 94%  
331 2% 93%  
332 1.0% 90%  
333 2% 89%  
334 0.9% 87%  
335 6% 87%  
336 0.8% 81%  
337 2% 80%  
338 1.3% 78%  
339 1.1% 77%  
340 10% 76%  
341 2% 66%  
342 4% 64%  
343 1.0% 60%  
344 16% 59% Median
345 1.1% 43%  
346 6% 42%  
347 6% 36%  
348 1.0% 30%  
349 1.0% 29%  
350 0.2% 28%  
351 1.1% 28%  
352 1.3% 27%  
353 2% 26%  
354 0.4% 24%  
355 2% 24%  
356 0.7% 22%  
357 2% 21%  
358 10% 20%  
359 0.1% 9%  
360 0.8% 9%  
361 0.3% 9%  
362 0.2% 8%  
363 0.3% 8%  
364 0.8% 8%  
365 1.3% 7%  
366 1.0% 6%  
367 0.3% 5%  
368 0.1% 4%  
369 0.9% 4%  
370 0.4% 3%  
371 0.2% 3%  
372 0.3% 3%  
373 0.3% 3%  
374 0.4% 2%  
375 0.7% 2%  
376 0.1% 1.2%  
377 0.5% 1.1%  
378 0.1% 0.5%  
379 0.1% 0.4%  
380 0% 0.4%  
381 0% 0.4%  
382 0.2% 0.4%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0.2% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.6%  
252 0% 99.6%  
253 0.1% 99.6%  
254 0.1% 99.6%  
255 0.5% 99.5%  
256 0.1% 98.9%  
257 0.7% 98.8%  
258 0.4% 98%  
259 0.3% 98%  
260 0.3% 97%  
261 0.2% 97%  
262 0.4% 97%  
263 0.9% 97%  
264 0.1% 96%  
265 0.4% 96%  
266 0.9% 95%  
267 1.2% 94%  
268 0.8% 93%  
269 0.3% 92%  
270 0.2% 92%  
271 0.3% 92%  
272 0.8% 91%  
273 0.1% 91%  
274 10% 91%  
275 2% 80%  
276 0.7% 79%  
277 2% 78%  
278 0.4% 76%  
279 2% 76%  
280 1.3% 74%  
281 1.2% 73%  
282 0.2% 72%  
283 1.1% 72%  
284 0.8% 70%  
285 7% 70%  
286 5% 63%  
287 1.2% 58%  
288 16% 57%  
289 1.0% 41%  
290 4% 40% Median
291 2% 36%  
292 10% 34%  
293 1.1% 24%  
294 1.3% 23%  
295 2% 21%  
296 0.7% 20%  
297 6% 19%  
298 0.9% 13%  
299 2% 12%  
300 0.8% 11%  
301 2% 10%  
302 1.2% 7%  
303 0.2% 6%  
304 0.8% 6%  
305 0.5% 5%  
306 0.2% 5%  
307 0.3% 5%  
308 1.3% 4%  
309 0.2% 3%  
310 0.2% 3%  
311 0% 3%  
312 0.3% 3%  
313 0.5% 2%  
314 0.7% 2% Last Result
315 0.3% 1.1%  
316 0.3% 0.8%  
317 0% 0.6%  
318 0.1% 0.6%  
319 0% 0.5%  
320 0.1% 0.5%  
321 0% 0.4%  
322 0% 0.4%  
323 0% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0.2% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.6%  
251 0% 99.6%  
252 0.1% 99.6%  
253 0.1% 99.6%  
254 0.5% 99.5%  
255 0.1% 98.9%  
256 0.7% 98.8%  
257 0.4% 98%  
258 0.3% 98%  
259 0.3% 97%  
260 0.2% 97%  
261 0.4% 97%  
262 0.9% 97%  
263 0.1% 96%  
264 0.4% 96%  
265 0.9% 95%  
266 1.2% 94%  
267 0.8% 93%  
268 0.3% 92%  
269 0.1% 92%  
270 0.3% 92%  
271 0.8% 91%  
272 0.1% 91%  
273 10% 90%  
274 2% 80%  
275 0.7% 79%  
276 2% 78%  
277 0.4% 76%  
278 2% 76%  
279 1.3% 74%  
280 1.2% 73%  
281 0.2% 72%  
282 1.1% 72%  
283 0.7% 70%  
284 7% 70%  
285 5% 63%  
286 1.2% 58%  
287 16% 57%  
288 1.0% 41%  
289 4% 40% Median
290 2% 36%  
291 10% 34%  
292 1.1% 24%  
293 1.3% 23%  
294 2% 21%  
295 0.7% 20%  
296 6% 19%  
297 0.8% 13%  
298 2% 12%  
299 1.0% 11%  
300 2% 10%  
301 1.2% 7%  
302 0.3% 6%  
303 0.8% 6%  
304 0.5% 5%  
305 0.2% 5%  
306 0.3% 5%  
307 1.3% 4%  
308 0.2% 3%  
309 0.2% 3%  
310 0% 3%  
311 0.3% 3%  
312 0.5% 2%  
313 0.7% 2% Last Result
314 0.3% 1.1%  
315 0.3% 0.8%  
316 0% 0.6%  
317 0.1% 0.6%  
318 0% 0.5%  
319 0.1% 0.5%  
320 0% 0.4%  
321 0% 0.4%  
322 0% 0.4%  
323 0.1% 0.3%  
324 0.1% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.7%  
243 0% 99.6%  
244 0.1% 99.6%  
245 0.2% 99.5%  
246 0.1% 99.3%  
247 0.6% 99.2%  
248 0.1% 98.6%  
249 0.8% 98.5%  
250 0.4% 98%  
251 0.3% 97%  
252 0.1% 97%  
253 0.3% 97%  
254 1.2% 97%  
255 0.1% 95%  
256 0.2% 95%  
257 0.3% 95%  
258 0.8% 95%  
259 1.3% 94%  
260 0.6% 93%  
261 0.2% 92%  
262 0.5% 92%  
263 0.8% 92%  
264 2% 91%  
265 5% 89%  
266 6% 84%  
267 2% 79%  
268 2% 77%  
269 0.9% 76%  
270 0.6% 75%  
271 0.5% 74%  
272 0.9% 74%  
273 1.2% 73%  
274 0.7% 72%  
275 0.4% 71%  
276 2% 70%  
277 7% 69%  
278 3% 62%  
279 1.4% 58%  
280 17% 57%  
281 3% 40%  
282 3% 37% Median
283 0.5% 34%  
284 9% 33%  
285 1.2% 24%  
286 0.5% 23%  
287 3% 22%  
288 0.5% 20%  
289 6% 19%  
290 2% 13%  
291 0.3% 11%  
292 1.4% 11%  
293 1.4% 9%  
294 0.3% 8%  
295 0.7% 8%  
296 2% 7%  
297 0.3% 5%  
298 0.3% 5%  
299 0.2% 5%  
300 0.5% 4%  
301 1.1% 4%  
302 0.3% 3%  
303 0% 3%  
304 0.2% 3%  
305 0% 2%  
306 0% 2%  
307 0.3% 2%  
308 0.7% 2%  
309 0.7% 1.3% Last Result
310 0.1% 0.6%  
311 0% 0.5%  
312 0% 0.5%  
313 0% 0.5%  
314 0.1% 0.4%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0% 0.3%  
317 0.1% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
196 0% 100%  
197 0.1% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0.1% 99.8%  
201 0.1% 99.7%  
202 0.2% 99.6%  
203 0.2% 99.4%  
204 0.3% 99.2%  
205 0.1% 99.0%  
206 0.1% 98.9%  
207 0.1% 98.8%  
208 0.3% 98.7%  
209 0.3% 98%  
210 0.2% 98%  
211 0.4% 98%  
212 0.2% 98%  
213 0.9% 97%  
214 1.1% 97%  
215 0.8% 96%  
216 0.2% 95%  
217 0.5% 94%  
218 1.1% 94%  
219 4% 93%  
220 0.9% 89%  
221 5% 88%  
222 2% 83%  
223 0.7% 81%  
224 3% 81%  
225 0.1% 78%  
226 0.9% 78%  
227 0.2% 77%  
228 0.9% 77%  
229 1.0% 76%  
230 0.3% 75%  
231 4% 75%  
232 2% 71%  
233 0.5% 69%  
234 1.3% 68%  
235 2% 67%  
236 6% 65%  
237 2% 58%  
238 0.8% 57%  
239 16% 56% Median
240 15% 40%  
241 2% 25%  
242 0.8% 23%  
243 1.4% 22%  
244 2% 20%  
245 6% 18%  
246 0.5% 13%  
247 2% 12%  
248 1.2% 11%  
249 0.7% 9%  
250 0.4% 9%  
251 0.4% 8%  
252 2% 8%  
253 0.4% 6%  
254 0.3% 5%  
255 0.4% 5%  
256 2% 5%  
257 0.1% 3%  
258 0.1% 3%  
259 0% 3%  
260 1.0% 3%  
261 0.6% 2%  
262 0.3% 1.2%  
263 0.1% 0.9%  
264 0.1% 0.8%  
265 0% 0.7%  
266 0.2% 0.7%  
267 0% 0.5%  
268 0.1% 0.5%  
269 0% 0.4%  
270 0.1% 0.4%  
271 0% 0.3%  
272 0% 0.3%  
273 0% 0.3%  
274 0% 0.2%  
275 0% 0.2%  
276 0.1% 0.2%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0.1% 99.8%  
192 0.1% 99.7%  
193 0.1% 99.6%  
194 0.1% 99.5%  
195 0.2% 99.5%  
196 0.1% 99.3%  
197 0.2% 99.2%  
198 0.4% 99.0%  
199 0.1% 98.6%  
200 0.3% 98.5%  
201 0.1% 98%  
202 0.3% 98%  
203 0.3% 98%  
204 0.4% 98%  
205 0.1% 97%  
206 2% 97%  
207 0.4% 95%  
208 0.4% 95%  
209 0.3% 95%  
210 1.1% 94%  
211 2% 93%  
212 4% 91%  
213 5% 87%  
214 0.4% 82%  
215 1.0% 82%  
216 0.2% 81%  
217 3% 81%  
218 0.4% 77%  
219 0.9% 77%  
220 0.2% 76%  
221 0.6% 76%  
222 0.5% 75%  
223 2% 75%  
224 4% 73%  
225 1.4% 69%  
226 2% 68%  
227 2% 66%  
228 0.8% 64%  
229 6% 64%  
230 1.2% 58%  
231 1.5% 56%  
232 18% 55% Median
233 14% 37%  
234 0.3% 23%  
235 0.7% 23%  
236 2% 22%  
237 0.8% 20%  
238 6% 19%  
239 2% 14%  
240 0.6% 12%  
241 2% 11%  
242 1.3% 10%  
243 0.5% 9%  
244 0.8% 8%  
245 1.0% 7%  
246 0.1% 6%  
247 0.5% 6%  
248 1.1% 6%  
249 0.4% 4%  
250 1.1% 4%  
251 0.1% 3%  
252 0.3% 3%  
253 0.2% 3%  
254 0.1% 2%  
255 0.3% 2%  
256 0.7% 2%  
257 0.6% 1.3%  
258 0% 0.7%  
259 0.2% 0.7%  
260 0% 0.6%  
261 0.1% 0.5%  
262 0.1% 0.4%  
263 0% 0.3%  
264 0% 0.3%  
265 0% 0.3%  
266 0% 0.3%  
267 0% 0.2%  
268 0% 0.2%  
269 0.1% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0.1% 99.8%  
192 0.1% 99.7%  
193 0.1% 99.6%  
194 0.1% 99.5%  
195 0.2% 99.5%  
196 0.1% 99.3%  
197 0.2% 99.2%  
198 0.4% 99.0%  
199 0.1% 98.6%  
200 0.3% 98.5%  
201 0.1% 98%  
202 0.3% 98%  
203 0.3% 98%  
204 0.4% 98%  
205 0.1% 97%  
206 2% 97%  
207 0.4% 95%  
208 0.4% 95%  
209 0.3% 95%  
210 1.1% 94%  
211 2% 93%  
212 4% 91%  
213 5% 87%  
214 0.4% 82%  
215 1.0% 82%  
216 0.2% 81%  
217 3% 81%  
218 0.4% 77%  
219 0.9% 77%  
220 0.2% 76%  
221 0.6% 76%  
222 0.5% 75%  
223 2% 75%  
224 4% 73%  
225 1.4% 69%  
226 2% 68%  
227 2% 66%  
228 0.8% 64%  
229 6% 64%  
230 1.2% 58%  
231 1.5% 56%  
232 18% 55% Median
233 14% 37%  
234 0.3% 23%  
235 0.7% 23%  
236 2% 22%  
237 0.8% 20%  
238 6% 19%  
239 2% 14%  
240 0.6% 12%  
241 2% 11%  
242 1.3% 10%  
243 0.5% 9%  
244 0.8% 8%  
245 1.0% 7%  
246 0.1% 6%  
247 0.5% 6%  
248 1.1% 6%  
249 0.4% 4%  
250 1.1% 4%  
251 0.1% 3%  
252 0.3% 3%  
253 0.2% 3%  
254 0.1% 2%  
255 0.3% 2%  
256 0.7% 2%  
257 0.6% 1.3%  
258 0% 0.7%  
259 0.2% 0.7%  
260 0% 0.6%  
261 0.1% 0.5%  
262 0.1% 0.4%  
263 0% 0.3%  
264 0% 0.3%  
265 0% 0.3%  
266 0% 0.3%  
267 0% 0.2%  
268 0% 0.2%  
269 0.1% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
187 0.1% 100%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.8%  
191 0.1% 99.8%  
192 0% 99.7%  
193 0% 99.7%  
194 0% 99.7%  
195 0.2% 99.7%  
196 0% 99.5%  
197 0.1% 99.5%  
198 0.1% 99.4%  
199 0.4% 99.3%  
200 0.3% 98.9%  
201 0.3% 98.6%  
202 2% 98%  
203 0.3% 97%  
204 2% 96%  
205 0.8% 95%  
206 0.5% 94%  
207 1.0% 94%  
208 0.1% 93%  
209 0.6% 93%  
210 0.3% 92%  
211 0.7% 92%  
212 5% 91%  
213 0.4% 86%  
214 0.8% 86%  
215 0.2% 85%  
216 2% 85%  
217 5% 83%  
218 0.7% 78%  
219 2% 78%  
220 5% 76%  
221 0.6% 71%  
222 1.3% 71%  
223 4% 70%  
224 1.1% 65%  
225 4% 64%  
226 5% 60%  
227 16% 55%  
228 0.8% 39%  
229 1.4% 39% Median
230 1.4% 37%  
231 1.0% 36%  
232 10% 35%  
233 0.7% 25%  
234 6% 24%  
235 1.3% 18%  
236 6% 17%  
237 2% 11%  
238 2% 10%  
239 1.3% 7%  
240 0.3% 6%  
241 0.4% 6%  
242 0.5% 5%  
243 0.2% 5%  
244 0.3% 4%  
245 0.1% 4%  
246 0.7% 4%  
247 0.3% 3%  
248 0.2% 3%  
249 1.0% 3%  
250 0.2% 2%  
251 0% 2%  
252 0.2% 2%  
253 0.2% 1.5%  
254 0.8% 1.3%  
255 0% 0.5%  
256 0.1% 0.5%  
257 0.1% 0.3%  
258 0.1% 0.3%  
259 0% 0.2%  
260 0.1% 0.2%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
178 0% 100%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.8%  
183 0% 99.8%  
184 0% 99.7%  
185 0% 99.7%  
186 0% 99.7%  
187 0.1% 99.6%  
188 0.2% 99.6%  
189 0.1% 99.4%  
190 0.1% 99.3%  
191 0.1% 99.2%  
192 0.4% 99.1%  
193 0.4% 98.7%  
194 0.8% 98%  
195 0.6% 97%  
196 0.5% 97%  
197 2% 96%  
198 0.9% 94%  
199 0.4% 93%  
200 0.7% 93%  
201 0.3% 92%  
202 0.4% 92%  
203 0.5% 92%  
204 5% 91%  
205 0.5% 86%  
206 1.0% 85%  
207 0.8% 84%  
208 0.5% 83%  
209 0.8% 83%  
210 4% 82%  
211 2% 78%  
212 1.0% 76%  
213 5% 75%  
214 0.5% 70%  
215 2% 70%  
216 2% 68%  
217 2% 66%  
218 5% 64%  
219 3% 59%  
220 15% 55%  
221 0.7% 40%  
222 1.4% 39% Median
223 3% 38%  
224 1.4% 35%  
225 11% 33%  
226 1.3% 23%  
227 4% 21%  
228 0.7% 17%  
229 6% 17%  
230 3% 11%  
231 0.5% 8%  
232 0.4% 8%  
233 0.6% 7%  
234 0.9% 7%  
235 1.1% 6%  
236 0.1% 5%  
237 0.1% 5%  
238 0.2% 4%  
239 0.3% 4%  
240 0.4% 4%  
241 0.1% 4%  
242 0.7% 4%  
243 1.1% 3%  
244 0% 2%  
245 0.2% 2%  
246 0.3% 2%  
247 0.3% 1.2%  
248 0% 0.9%  
249 0.1% 0.9%  
250 0.6% 0.8%  
251 0% 0.3%  
252 0% 0.2%  
253 0% 0.2%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0.1% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0.1% 100%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.8%  
143 0% 99.8%  
144 0% 99.8%  
145 0.2% 99.7%  
146 0.1% 99.5%  
147 0.1% 99.4%  
148 0.1% 99.3%  
149 0.1% 99.3%  
150 0% 99.2%  
151 0.2% 99.1%  
152 0.5% 98.9%  
153 0.5% 98%  
154 2% 98%  
155 0.5% 96%  
156 1.1% 96%  
157 0.6% 95%  
158 0.4% 94%  
159 0.2% 94%  
160 5% 94%  
161 1.1% 88%  
162 1.1% 87%  
163 4% 86%  
164 0.4% 82%  
165 0.3% 82%  
166 0.5% 81%  
167 0.6% 81%  
168 0.8% 80%  
169 2% 79%  
170 0.6% 78%  
171 4% 77%  
172 5% 73%  
173 1.0% 68%  
174 4% 67%  
175 1.0% 64%  
176 1.0% 62%  
177 5% 61%  
178 3% 56%  
179 16% 53% Median
180 4% 37%  
181 9% 33%  
182 2% 23%  
183 1.3% 22%  
184 2% 20%  
185 6% 19%  
186 4% 13%  
187 2% 10%  
188 0.5% 7%  
189 0.4% 7%  
190 0.4% 6%  
191 0.9% 6%  
192 0.2% 5%  
193 1.2% 5%  
194 0.7% 4%  
195 0% 3%  
196 0% 3%  
197 0.2% 3%  
198 1.0% 3%  
199 0.2% 2%  
200 0.1% 2%  
201 0.4% 2%  
202 0% 1.3%  
203 0.5% 1.2%  
204 0% 0.7%  
205 0.4% 0.7%  
206 0.1% 0.3%  
207 0.1% 0.2%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0.1% 100%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.8%  
134 0% 99.8%  
135 0.1% 99.8%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0% 99.7%  
138 0.2% 99.6%  
139 0% 99.4%  
140 0.1% 99.4%  
141 0.1% 99.2%  
142 0.2% 99.1%  
143 0.1% 98.9%  
144 0.3% 98.8%  
145 0.4% 98.6%  
146 1.2% 98%  
147 0.7% 97%  
148 0.7% 96%  
149 1.2% 96%  
150 1.4% 94%  
151 0.2% 93%  
152 4% 93%  
153 1.2% 88%  
154 1.3% 87%  
155 0.3% 86%  
156 4% 86%  
157 0.1% 82%  
158 0.7% 82%  
159 0.7% 81%  
160 0.6% 80%  
161 2% 79%  
162 0.9% 78%  
163 2% 77%  
164 4% 75%  
165 4% 71%  
166 0.4% 67%  
167 2% 66%  
168 2% 64%  
169 2% 62%  
170 7% 60%  
171 3% 53%  
172 15% 50% Median
173 1.3% 35%  
174 9% 34%  
175 3% 25%  
176 4% 23%  
177 1.5% 19%  
178 5% 18%  
179 3% 12%  
180 1.0% 9%  
181 0.6% 8%  
182 1.5% 8%  
183 0.4% 6%  
184 0.1% 6%  
185 0.2% 6%  
186 0.4% 6%  
187 0.9% 5%  
188 0.2% 4%  
189 0.8% 4%  
190 0.4% 3%  
191 0% 3%  
192 1.0% 3%  
193 0% 2%  
194 0.4% 2%  
195 0.1% 1.3%  
196 0.1% 1.3%  
197 0.1% 1.2%  
198 0.3% 1.1%  
199 0.5% 0.8%  
200 0% 0.3%  
201 0% 0.2%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0.1% 100%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.8%  
134 0% 99.8%  
135 0.1% 99.8%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0% 99.7%  
138 0.2% 99.6%  
139 0% 99.4%  
140 0.1% 99.4%  
141 0.1% 99.2%  
142 0.2% 99.1%  
143 0.1% 98.9%  
144 0.3% 98.8%  
145 0.4% 98.6%  
146 1.2% 98%  
147 0.7% 97%  
148 0.7% 96%  
149 1.2% 96%  
150 1.4% 94%  
151 0.2% 93%  
152 4% 93%  
153 1.2% 88%  
154 1.3% 87%  
155 0.3% 86%  
156 4% 86%  
157 0.1% 82%  
158 0.7% 82%  
159 0.7% 81%  
160 0.6% 80%  
161 2% 79%  
162 0.9% 78%  
163 2% 77%  
164 4% 75%  
165 4% 71%  
166 0.4% 67%  
167 2% 66%  
168 2% 64%  
169 2% 62%  
170 7% 60%  
171 3% 53%  
172 15% 50% Median
173 1.3% 35%  
174 9% 34%  
175 3% 25%  
176 4% 23%  
177 1.5% 19%  
178 5% 18%  
179 3% 12%  
180 1.0% 9%  
181 0.6% 8%  
182 1.5% 8%  
183 0.4% 6%  
184 0.1% 6%  
185 0.2% 6%  
186 0.4% 6%  
187 0.9% 5%  
188 0.2% 4%  
189 0.8% 4%  
190 0.4% 3%  
191 0% 3%  
192 1.0% 3%  
193 0% 2%  
194 0.4% 2%  
195 0.1% 1.3%  
196 0.1% 1.3%  
197 0.1% 1.2%  
198 0.3% 1.1%  
199 0.5% 0.8%  
200 0% 0.3%  
201 0% 0.2%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations