Opinion Poll by Opinium for The Observer, 23–25 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 40.2% 38.8–41.6% 38.4–42.0% 38.0–42.4% 37.4–43.0%
Labour Party 41.0% 24.1% 22.9–25.4% 22.6–25.8% 22.3–26.1% 21.7–26.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 15.1% 14.1–16.2% 13.8–16.5% 13.6–16.7% 13.1–17.3%
Brexit Party 0.0% 10.0% 9.2–11.0% 9.0–11.2% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.9%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 5.0% 4.5–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.4%
Green Party 1.7% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 375 354–388 353–393 352–397 345–402
Labour Party 262 160 146–177 145–179 142–182 136–186
Liberal Democrats 12 44 37–46 36–48 34–49 33–49
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 35 54 51–54 50–54 50–55 48–55
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.8%  
344 0.2% 99.8%  
345 0.2% 99.6%  
346 0.1% 99.4%  
347 0.2% 99.3%  
348 0.2% 99.0%  
349 0.4% 98.8%  
350 0.6% 98%  
351 0.1% 98%  
352 2% 98%  
353 3% 96%  
354 6% 93%  
355 0.5% 88%  
356 4% 87%  
357 3% 83%  
358 0.8% 80%  
359 0.3% 79%  
360 2% 79%  
361 2% 77%  
362 2% 75%  
363 1.2% 73%  
364 2% 72%  
365 0.2% 69%  
366 0.7% 69%  
367 1.3% 69%  
368 0.2% 67%  
369 0.6% 67%  
370 1.1% 66%  
371 1.2% 65%  
372 0.6% 64%  
373 9% 63%  
374 0.6% 54%  
375 4% 54% Median
376 2% 50%  
377 13% 48%  
378 1.3% 35%  
379 3% 34%  
380 1.3% 31%  
381 2% 30%  
382 7% 28%  
383 3% 20%  
384 1.2% 18%  
385 1.2% 16%  
386 2% 15%  
387 0.5% 14%  
388 4% 13%  
389 0.4% 9%  
390 0.5% 9%  
391 0.7% 8%  
392 1.2% 7%  
393 2% 6%  
394 0.6% 4%  
395 0.3% 3%  
396 0.2% 3%  
397 0.5% 3%  
398 0.5% 2%  
399 0.7% 2%  
400 0.5% 1.2%  
401 0.2% 0.7%  
402 0.1% 0.6%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0.1% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0.1% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.8%  
135 0.1% 99.7%  
136 0.2% 99.6%  
137 0.5% 99.5%  
138 0.2% 99.0%  
139 0.6% 98.8%  
140 0.2% 98%  
141 0.3% 98%  
142 0.8% 98%  
143 0.3% 97%  
144 1.0% 97%  
145 2% 95%  
146 4% 93%  
147 0.6% 90%  
148 0.4% 89%  
149 3% 89%  
150 2% 86%  
151 2% 84%  
152 5% 82%  
153 4% 77%  
154 5% 73%  
155 4% 69%  
156 0.5% 65%  
157 1.0% 64%  
158 1.4% 63%  
159 2% 62%  
160 11% 60% Median
161 1.0% 50%  
162 1.1% 49%  
163 11% 47%  
164 2% 36%  
165 2% 34%  
166 0.6% 32%  
167 1.0% 31%  
168 2% 30%  
169 0.2% 28%  
170 1.2% 28%  
171 2% 27%  
172 1.3% 25%  
173 2% 24%  
174 0.5% 22%  
175 5% 22%  
176 4% 17%  
177 5% 13%  
178 2% 8%  
179 1.0% 6%  
180 2% 5%  
181 0.4% 3%  
182 1.1% 3%  
183 0.5% 2%  
184 0.4% 1.1%  
185 0.2% 0.7%  
186 0.3% 0.6%  
187 0% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.7%  
34 2% 99.3%  
35 0.9% 97%  
36 2% 96%  
37 15% 95%  
38 11% 79%  
39 1.4% 69%  
40 5% 67%  
41 3% 63%  
42 4% 60%  
43 4% 56%  
44 26% 52% Median
45 1.5% 26%  
46 16% 24%  
47 0% 8%  
48 5% 8%  
49 3% 3%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.7% 99.8%  
49 0% 99.1%  
50 6% 99.1%  
51 5% 93%  
52 9% 88%  
53 2% 79%  
54 74% 77% Median
55 3% 3%  
56 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 69% 100% Median
1 0.7% 31%  
2 0.2% 30%  
3 25% 30%  
4 5% 5% Last Result
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 430 100% 408–443 407–447 406–452 400–456
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 429 100% 408–440 407–447 405–450 398–454
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 416 100% 400–428 397–432 395–435 390–440
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 416 100% 400–428 397–432 395–435 390–440
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 376 100% 354–391 353–393 352–398 347–402
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 375 100% 354–388 353–393 352–397 345–402
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 375 100% 354–388 353–393 352–397 345–402
Conservative Party 317 375 100% 354–388 353–393 352–397 345–402
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 314 257 0% 244–278 239–279 235–280 230–287
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 256 0% 243–277 238–278 234–279 229–286
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 255 0% 240–277 238–278 233–279 229–284
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 215 0% 203–231 199–234 196–236 191–241
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 214 0% 200–231 198–233 194–235 190–238
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 202 0% 191–223 184–224 181–226 177–233
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 201 0% 188–223 184–224 179–225 175–231
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 201 0% 188–223 184–224 179–225 175–231
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 162 0% 149–177 145–181 143–182 138–187
Labour Party – Change UK 262 160 0% 146–177 145–179 142–182 136–186
Labour Party 262 160 0% 146–177 145–179 142–182 136–186

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100% Last Result
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 99.9%  
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0.1% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.8%  
398 0% 99.8%  
399 0.1% 99.7%  
400 0.3% 99.6%  
401 0.1% 99.3%  
402 0.1% 99.2%  
403 0.5% 99.1%  
404 0.2% 98.6%  
405 0.2% 98%  
406 0.9% 98%  
407 2% 97%  
408 7% 95%  
409 0.3% 88%  
410 4% 88%  
411 3% 83%  
412 0.2% 80%  
413 1.4% 80%  
414 1.2% 78%  
415 2% 77%  
416 1.5% 75%  
417 1.0% 74%  
418 0.8% 73%  
419 0.7% 72%  
420 0.5% 71%  
421 3% 71%  
422 0.6% 68%  
423 0.8% 67%  
424 0.3% 67%  
425 0.5% 66%  
426 0.5% 66%  
427 9% 65%  
428 2% 56%  
429 4% 54% Median
430 1.1% 50%  
431 12% 49%  
432 2% 37%  
433 4% 35%  
434 2% 31%  
435 2% 29%  
436 2% 27%  
437 4% 25%  
438 4% 21%  
439 2% 17%  
440 2% 15%  
441 1.3% 12%  
442 0.7% 11%  
443 2% 11%  
444 0.2% 9%  
445 0.7% 8%  
446 1.2% 8%  
447 2% 6%  
448 0.5% 4%  
449 0.4% 4%  
450 0.5% 3%  
451 0.3% 3%  
452 1.0% 3%  
453 0.2% 2%  
454 0.4% 1.3%  
455 0% 0.9%  
456 0.5% 0.9%  
457 0.1% 0.4%  
458 0.1% 0.4%  
459 0% 0.3%  
460 0.1% 0.2%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100% Last Result
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 99.9%  
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0.1% 99.9%  
397 0.2% 99.8%  
398 0.1% 99.6%  
399 0.2% 99.5%  
400 0.3% 99.3%  
401 0.2% 99.0%  
402 0.2% 98.8%  
403 0.3% 98.5%  
404 0.6% 98%  
405 0.2% 98%  
406 2% 97%  
407 2% 96%  
408 6% 94%  
409 0.4% 87%  
410 4% 87%  
411 4% 83%  
412 1.4% 79%  
413 1.4% 77%  
414 1.1% 76%  
415 1.4% 75%  
416 2% 73%  
417 0.3% 71%  
418 2% 71%  
419 0.2% 69%  
420 0.9% 69%  
421 0.9% 68%  
422 0.9% 67%  
423 0.5% 66%  
424 1.2% 66%  
425 0.8% 64%  
426 0.8% 64%  
427 9% 63%  
428 0.4% 54%  
429 4% 53% Median
430 2% 50%  
431 12% 48%  
432 3% 35%  
433 4% 32%  
434 4% 29%  
435 2% 25%  
436 3% 23%  
437 3% 19%  
438 4% 16%  
439 0.4% 12%  
440 2% 12%  
441 0.3% 9%  
442 0.6% 9%  
443 0.3% 9%  
444 0.3% 8%  
445 0.8% 8%  
446 1.1% 7%  
447 2% 6%  
448 0.5% 4%  
449 0.7% 3%  
450 0.4% 3%  
451 0.2% 2%  
452 0.6% 2%  
453 0.7% 1.4%  
454 0.2% 0.6%  
455 0.1% 0.4%  
456 0% 0.3%  
457 0.1% 0.3%  
458 0% 0.2%  
459 0% 0.2%  
460 0.1% 0.2%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0.1% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.8%  
389 0.2% 99.8%  
390 0.3% 99.7%  
391 0.2% 99.4%  
392 0.2% 99.2%  
393 0.5% 99.0%  
394 0.7% 98.5%  
395 0.3% 98%  
396 1.3% 97%  
397 2% 96%  
398 2% 94%  
399 1.3% 92%  
400 4% 91%  
401 4% 87%  
402 5% 83%  
403 0.5% 78%  
404 2% 77%  
405 0.3% 75%  
406 2% 75%  
407 0.5% 73%  
408 0.6% 72%  
409 2% 72%  
410 4% 70%  
411 0.5% 66%  
412 2% 66%  
413 0.3% 64%  
414 11% 63%  
415 2% 52%  
416 0.8% 50%  
417 11% 49%  
418 0.3% 38%  
419 2% 38% Median
420 1.1% 36%  
421 0.7% 34%  
422 2% 34%  
423 5% 32%  
424 4% 27%  
425 2% 23%  
426 6% 21%  
427 2% 15%  
428 3% 12%  
429 0.9% 9%  
430 0.5% 8%  
431 2% 8%  
432 2% 6%  
433 0.3% 4%  
434 0.6% 4%  
435 0.5% 3%  
436 0.2% 2%  
437 0.6% 2%  
438 0.6% 2%  
439 0.4% 1.0%  
440 0.2% 0.7%  
441 0.1% 0.5%  
442 0.1% 0.3%  
443 0.1% 0.3%  
444 0.1% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.2%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0.1% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.8%  
389 0.2% 99.8%  
390 0.3% 99.7%  
391 0.2% 99.4%  
392 0.2% 99.2%  
393 0.5% 99.0%  
394 0.7% 98.5%  
395 0.3% 98%  
396 1.3% 97%  
397 2% 96%  
398 2% 94%  
399 1.3% 92%  
400 4% 91%  
401 4% 87%  
402 5% 83%  
403 0.5% 78%  
404 2% 77%  
405 0.3% 75%  
406 2% 75%  
407 0.5% 73%  
408 0.6% 72%  
409 2% 72%  
410 4% 70%  
411 0.5% 66%  
412 2% 66%  
413 0.3% 64%  
414 11% 63%  
415 2% 52%  
416 0.8% 50%  
417 11% 49%  
418 0.3% 38%  
419 2% 38% Median
420 1.1% 36%  
421 0.7% 34%  
422 2% 34%  
423 5% 32%  
424 4% 27%  
425 2% 23%  
426 6% 21%  
427 2% 15%  
428 3% 12%  
429 0.9% 9%  
430 0.5% 8%  
431 2% 8%  
432 2% 6%  
433 0.3% 4%  
434 0.6% 4%  
435 0.5% 3%  
436 0.2% 2%  
437 0.6% 2%  
438 0.6% 2%  
439 0.4% 1.0%  
440 0.2% 0.7%  
441 0.1% 0.5%  
442 0.1% 0.3%  
443 0.1% 0.3%  
444 0.1% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.2%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
321 0% 100% Last Result
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.8%  
344 0% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.7%  
346 0% 99.6%  
347 0.3% 99.6%  
348 0.1% 99.3%  
349 0.4% 99.2%  
350 0.2% 98.9%  
351 0.2% 98.6%  
352 1.0% 98%  
353 3% 97%  
354 6% 95%  
355 0.4% 89%  
356 5% 88%  
357 3% 84%  
358 0.2% 81%  
359 0.5% 80%  
360 0.3% 80%  
361 2% 80%  
362 1.3% 78%  
363 2% 77%  
364 2% 74%  
365 1.0% 72%  
366 0.5% 71%  
367 3% 71%  
368 0.2% 68%  
369 0.4% 68%  
370 0.1% 67%  
371 0.2% 67%  
372 0.6% 67%  
373 9% 66%  
374 2% 57%  
375 4% 55% Median
376 1.2% 51%  
377 12% 50%  
378 2% 38%  
379 4% 36%  
380 2% 32%  
381 0.9% 31%  
382 3% 30%  
383 3% 27%  
384 2% 25%  
385 5% 23%  
386 2% 18%  
387 1.1% 16%  
388 4% 15%  
389 0.7% 11%  
390 0.4% 11%  
391 2% 10%  
392 1.1% 8%  
393 2% 7%  
394 0.6% 5%  
395 0.7% 4%  
396 0.1% 3%  
397 0.3% 3%  
398 0.6% 3%  
399 0.2% 2%  
400 1.0% 2%  
401 0.2% 1.2%  
402 0.6% 1.0%  
403 0.1% 0.5%  
404 0% 0.4%  
405 0% 0.4%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0% 0.3%  
408 0.1% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.8%  
344 0.2% 99.8%  
345 0.2% 99.6%  
346 0.1% 99.4%  
347 0.2% 99.3%  
348 0.2% 99.0%  
349 0.4% 98.8%  
350 0.6% 98%  
351 0.1% 98%  
352 2% 98%  
353 3% 96%  
354 6% 93%  
355 0.5% 88%  
356 4% 87%  
357 3% 83%  
358 0.8% 80%  
359 0.3% 79%  
360 2% 79%  
361 2% 77%  
362 2% 75%  
363 1.2% 73%  
364 2% 72%  
365 0.2% 69%  
366 0.7% 69%  
367 1.3% 69%  
368 0.2% 67%  
369 0.6% 67%  
370 1.1% 66%  
371 1.2% 65%  
372 0.6% 64%  
373 9% 63%  
374 0.6% 54%  
375 4% 54% Median
376 2% 50%  
377 13% 48%  
378 1.3% 35%  
379 3% 34%  
380 1.3% 31%  
381 2% 30%  
382 7% 28%  
383 3% 20%  
384 1.2% 18%  
385 1.2% 16%  
386 2% 15%  
387 0.5% 14%  
388 4% 13%  
389 0.4% 9%  
390 0.5% 9%  
391 0.7% 8%  
392 1.2% 7%  
393 2% 6%  
394 0.6% 4%  
395 0.3% 3%  
396 0.2% 3%  
397 0.5% 3%  
398 0.5% 2%  
399 0.7% 2%  
400 0.5% 1.2%  
401 0.2% 0.7%  
402 0.1% 0.6%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0.1% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.8%  
344 0.2% 99.8%  
345 0.2% 99.6%  
346 0.1% 99.4%  
347 0.2% 99.3%  
348 0.2% 99.0%  
349 0.4% 98.8%  
350 0.6% 98%  
351 0.1% 98%  
352 2% 98%  
353 3% 96%  
354 6% 93%  
355 0.5% 88%  
356 4% 87%  
357 3% 83%  
358 0.8% 80%  
359 0.3% 79%  
360 2% 79%  
361 2% 77%  
362 2% 75%  
363 1.2% 73%  
364 2% 72%  
365 0.2% 69%  
366 0.7% 69%  
367 1.3% 69%  
368 0.2% 67%  
369 0.6% 67%  
370 1.1% 66%  
371 1.2% 65%  
372 0.6% 64%  
373 9% 63%  
374 0.6% 54%  
375 4% 54% Median
376 2% 50%  
377 13% 48%  
378 1.3% 35%  
379 3% 34%  
380 1.3% 31%  
381 2% 30%  
382 7% 28%  
383 3% 20%  
384 1.2% 18%  
385 1.2% 16%  
386 2% 15%  
387 0.5% 14%  
388 4% 13%  
389 0.4% 9%  
390 0.5% 9%  
391 0.7% 8%  
392 1.2% 7%  
393 2% 6%  
394 0.6% 4%  
395 0.3% 3%  
396 0.2% 3%  
397 0.5% 3%  
398 0.5% 2%  
399 0.7% 2%  
400 0.5% 1.2%  
401 0.2% 0.7%  
402 0.1% 0.6%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0.1% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.8%  
344 0.2% 99.8%  
345 0.2% 99.6%  
346 0.1% 99.4%  
347 0.2% 99.3%  
348 0.2% 99.0%  
349 0.4% 98.8%  
350 0.6% 98%  
351 0.1% 98%  
352 2% 98%  
353 3% 96%  
354 6% 93%  
355 0.5% 88%  
356 4% 87%  
357 3% 83%  
358 0.8% 80%  
359 0.3% 79%  
360 2% 79%  
361 2% 77%  
362 2% 75%  
363 1.2% 73%  
364 2% 72%  
365 0.2% 69%  
366 0.7% 69%  
367 1.3% 69%  
368 0.2% 67%  
369 0.6% 67%  
370 1.1% 66%  
371 1.2% 65%  
372 0.6% 64%  
373 9% 63%  
374 0.6% 54%  
375 4% 54% Median
376 2% 50%  
377 13% 48%  
378 1.3% 35%  
379 3% 34%  
380 1.3% 31%  
381 2% 30%  
382 7% 28%  
383 3% 20%  
384 1.2% 18%  
385 1.2% 16%  
386 2% 15%  
387 0.5% 14%  
388 4% 13%  
389 0.4% 9%  
390 0.5% 9%  
391 0.7% 8%  
392 1.2% 7%  
393 2% 6%  
394 0.6% 4%  
395 0.3% 3%  
396 0.2% 3%  
397 0.5% 3%  
398 0.5% 2%  
399 0.7% 2%  
400 0.5% 1.2%  
401 0.2% 0.7%  
402 0.1% 0.6%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0.1% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
223 0% 100%  
224 0.1% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0% 99.8%  
228 0% 99.7%  
229 0.1% 99.7%  
230 0.1% 99.6%  
231 0.2% 99.4%  
232 0.5% 99.3%  
233 0.7% 98.8%  
234 0.5% 98%  
235 0.5% 98%  
236 0.2% 97%  
237 0.3% 97%  
238 0.6% 97%  
239 2% 96%  
240 1.2% 94%  
241 0.7% 93%  
242 0.5% 92%  
243 0.4% 91%  
244 4% 91%  
245 0.5% 87%  
246 2% 86%  
247 1.2% 85%  
248 1.2% 84%  
249 3% 82%  
250 7% 80%  
251 2% 72%  
252 1.3% 70%  
253 3% 69%  
254 1.3% 66%  
255 13% 65%  
256 2% 52%  
257 4% 50%  
258 0.6% 46%  
259 9% 46% Median
260 0.6% 37%  
261 1.2% 36%  
262 1.1% 35%  
263 0.6% 34%  
264 0.2% 33%  
265 1.3% 33%  
266 0.7% 31%  
267 0.2% 31%  
268 2% 31%  
269 1.2% 28%  
270 2% 27%  
271 2% 25%  
272 2% 23%  
273 0.3% 21%  
274 0.8% 21%  
275 3% 20%  
276 4% 17%  
277 0.5% 13%  
278 6% 12%  
279 3% 7%  
280 2% 4%  
281 0.1% 2%  
282 0.6% 2%  
283 0.4% 2%  
284 0.2% 1.2%  
285 0.2% 1.0%  
286 0.1% 0.7%  
287 0.2% 0.6%  
288 0.2% 0.4%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0.1% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
222 0% 100%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0% 99.7%  
228 0.1% 99.7%  
229 0.1% 99.6%  
230 0.2% 99.4%  
231 0.5% 99.3%  
232 0.7% 98.8%  
233 0.5% 98%  
234 0.5% 98%  
235 0.2% 97%  
236 0.3% 97%  
237 0.6% 97%  
238 2% 96%  
239 1.2% 94%  
240 0.7% 93%  
241 0.5% 92%  
242 0.4% 91%  
243 4% 91%  
244 0.5% 87%  
245 2% 86%  
246 1.2% 85%  
247 1.2% 84%  
248 3% 82%  
249 7% 80%  
250 2% 72%  
251 1.3% 70%  
252 3% 69%  
253 1.3% 66%  
254 13% 65%  
255 2% 52%  
256 4% 50%  
257 0.6% 46%  
258 9% 46% Median
259 0.6% 37%  
260 1.2% 36%  
261 1.1% 35%  
262 0.5% 34%  
263 0.2% 33%  
264 1.3% 33%  
265 0.7% 31%  
266 0.2% 31%  
267 2% 31%  
268 1.2% 28%  
269 2% 27%  
270 2% 25%  
271 2% 23%  
272 0.3% 21%  
273 0.8% 21%  
274 3% 20%  
275 4% 17%  
276 0.5% 13%  
277 6% 12%  
278 3% 7%  
279 2% 4%  
280 0.1% 2%  
281 0.6% 2%  
282 0.4% 2%  
283 0.2% 1.2%  
284 0.2% 1.0%  
285 0.1% 0.7%  
286 0.2% 0.6%  
287 0.2% 0.4%  
288 0% 0.2%  
289 0.1% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.7%  
226 0% 99.6%  
227 0% 99.6%  
228 0.1% 99.6%  
229 0.6% 99.5%  
230 0.2% 99.0%  
231 1.0% 98.8%  
232 0.2% 98%  
233 0.6% 98%  
234 0.3% 97%  
235 0.1% 97%  
236 0.7% 97%  
237 0.6% 96%  
238 2% 95%  
239 1.1% 93%  
240 2% 92%  
241 0.4% 90%  
242 0.7% 89%  
243 4% 89%  
244 1.1% 85%  
245 2% 84%  
246 5% 82%  
247 2% 77%  
248 3% 75%  
249 3% 73%  
250 0.9% 70%  
251 2% 69%  
252 4% 68%  
253 2% 64%  
254 12% 62%  
255 1.2% 50%  
256 4% 49%  
257 2% 45%  
258 9% 43% Median
259 0.6% 34%  
260 0.2% 33%  
261 0.1% 33%  
262 0.4% 33%  
263 0.2% 32%  
264 3% 32%  
265 0.5% 29%  
266 1.0% 29%  
267 2% 28%  
268 2% 26%  
269 1.3% 23%  
270 2% 22%  
271 0.3% 20%  
272 0.5% 20%  
273 0.2% 20%  
274 3% 19%  
275 5% 16%  
276 0.4% 12%  
277 6% 11%  
278 3% 5%  
279 1.0% 3%  
280 0.2% 2%  
281 0.2% 1.4%  
282 0.4% 1.1%  
283 0.1% 0.8%  
284 0.3% 0.7%  
285 0% 0.4%  
286 0.1% 0.4%  
287 0% 0.3%  
288 0% 0.2%  
289 0.1% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
183 0% 100%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0.1% 99.8%  
188 0.1% 99.8%  
189 0.1% 99.7%  
190 0.1% 99.7%  
191 0.2% 99.5%  
192 0.4% 99.3%  
193 0.6% 99.0%  
194 0.6% 98%  
195 0.2% 98%  
196 0.5% 98%  
197 0.6% 97%  
198 0.3% 96%  
199 2% 96%  
200 2% 94%  
201 0.5% 92%  
202 0.9% 92%  
203 3% 91%  
204 2% 88%  
205 6% 85%  
206 2% 79%  
207 4% 77%  
208 5% 73%  
209 2% 68%  
210 0.7% 66%  
211 1.1% 66%  
212 2% 64%  
213 0.3% 62%  
214 11% 62% Median
215 0.8% 51%  
216 2% 50%  
217 11% 48%  
218 0.3% 37%  
219 2% 36%  
220 0.5% 34%  
221 4% 34%  
222 2% 30%  
223 0.6% 28%  
224 0.5% 28%  
225 2% 27%  
226 0.3% 25%  
227 2% 25%  
228 0.5% 23%  
229 5% 22%  
230 4% 17%  
231 4% 13%  
232 1.3% 9%  
233 2% 8%  
234 2% 6%  
235 1.3% 4%  
236 0.4% 3%  
237 0.7% 2%  
238 0.5% 1.5%  
239 0.2% 1.0%  
240 0.2% 0.8%  
241 0.3% 0.6%  
242 0.2% 0.3%  
243 0% 0.2%  
244 0% 0.2%  
245 0.1% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
182 0% 100%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0.1% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0.1% 99.8%  
187 0% 99.7%  
188 0.1% 99.7%  
189 0.1% 99.6%  
190 0.3% 99.6%  
191 0.6% 99.3%  
192 0.3% 98.7%  
193 0.7% 98%  
194 0.5% 98%  
195 0.2% 97%  
196 1.1% 97%  
197 0.2% 96%  
198 0.6% 96%  
199 2% 95%  
200 4% 93%  
201 0.3% 89%  
202 2% 89%  
203 3% 87%  
204 5% 84%  
205 6% 79%  
206 2% 73%  
207 3% 72%  
208 4% 69%  
209 0.9% 65%  
210 0.2% 64%  
211 2% 64%  
212 2% 63%  
213 1.4% 61%  
214 10% 59% Median
215 0.4% 49%  
216 1.1% 48%  
217 12% 47%  
218 2% 35%  
219 2% 33%  
220 0.3% 31%  
221 1.0% 31%  
222 2% 30%  
223 0.6% 27%  
224 2% 27%  
225 2% 25%  
226 0.1% 23%  
227 1.1% 23%  
228 0.6% 22%  
229 6% 21%  
230 4% 15%  
231 6% 12%  
232 0.2% 6%  
233 1.1% 5%  
234 2% 4%  
235 0.6% 3%  
236 0.5% 2%  
237 0.8% 2%  
238 0.4% 0.9%  
239 0.2% 0.5%  
240 0.1% 0.3%  
241 0% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0.1% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.8%  
173 0% 99.8%  
174 0.1% 99.8%  
175 0% 99.7%  
176 0.1% 99.7%  
177 0.2% 99.6%  
178 0.7% 99.4%  
179 0.6% 98.6%  
180 0.2% 98%  
181 0.4% 98%  
182 0.8% 97%  
183 0.5% 97%  
184 2% 96%  
185 1.1% 94%  
186 0.8% 93%  
187 0.3% 92%  
188 0.3% 92%  
189 0.6% 91%  
190 0.3% 91%  
191 2% 91%  
192 0.4% 88%  
193 4% 88%  
194 3% 84%  
195 3% 81%  
196 2% 77%  
197 4% 75%  
198 4% 71%  
199 3% 68%  
200 12% 65%  
201 2% 52%  
202 4% 50%  
203 0.4% 47%  
204 9% 46% Median
205 0.8% 37%  
206 0.8% 36%  
207 1.2% 36%  
208 0.5% 34%  
209 0.9% 34%  
210 0.9% 33%  
211 1.0% 32%  
212 0.2% 31%  
213 2% 31%  
214 0.2% 29%  
215 2% 29%  
216 1.4% 27%  
217 1.1% 25%  
218 1.4% 24%  
219 1.4% 23%  
220 4% 21%  
221 4% 17%  
222 0.4% 13%  
223 6% 13%  
224 2% 6%  
225 2% 4%  
226 0.2% 3%  
227 0.6% 2%  
228 0.3% 2%  
229 0.2% 1.5%  
230 0.2% 1.2%  
231 0.3% 1.0%  
232 0.2% 0.7%  
233 0.1% 0.5%  
234 0.2% 0.4%  
235 0.1% 0.2%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0.1% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.8%  
173 0.1% 99.7%  
174 0.1% 99.6%  
175 0.5% 99.6%  
176 0% 99.1%  
177 0.4% 99.1%  
178 0.2% 98.7%  
179 1.0% 98%  
180 0.3% 97%  
181 0.5% 97%  
182 0.5% 97%  
183 0.5% 96%  
184 2% 96%  
185 1.2% 94%  
186 0.7% 92%  
187 0.2% 92%  
188 2% 91%  
189 0.7% 89%  
190 1.3% 89%  
191 2% 88%  
192 2% 85%  
193 4% 83%  
194 4% 79%  
195 2% 75%  
196 2% 73%  
197 2% 71%  
198 4% 69%  
199 2% 65%  
200 12% 63%  
201 1.1% 51%  
202 4% 50%  
203 2% 46%  
204 9% 44% Median
205 0.5% 35%  
206 0.5% 34%  
207 0.3% 34%  
208 0.8% 33%  
209 0.6% 33%  
210 3% 32%  
211 0.5% 29%  
212 0.7% 29%  
213 0.8% 28%  
214 1.0% 27%  
215 2% 26%  
216 2% 25%  
217 1.2% 23%  
218 1.4% 22%  
219 0.2% 20%  
220 3% 20%  
221 4% 17%  
222 0.3% 12%  
223 7% 12%  
224 2% 5%  
225 0.9% 3%  
226 0.2% 2%  
227 0.2% 2%  
228 0.5% 1.4%  
229 0.1% 0.9%  
230 0.1% 0.8%  
231 0.3% 0.7%  
232 0.1% 0.4%  
233 0% 0.3%  
234 0% 0.2%  
235 0.1% 0.2%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0.1% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.8%  
173 0.1% 99.7%  
174 0.1% 99.6%  
175 0.5% 99.6%  
176 0% 99.1%  
177 0.4% 99.1%  
178 0.2% 98.7%  
179 1.0% 98%  
180 0.3% 97%  
181 0.5% 97%  
182 0.5% 97%  
183 0.5% 96%  
184 2% 96%  
185 1.2% 94%  
186 0.7% 92%  
187 0.2% 92%  
188 2% 91%  
189 0.7% 89%  
190 1.3% 89%  
191 2% 88%  
192 2% 85%  
193 4% 83%  
194 4% 79%  
195 2% 75%  
196 2% 73%  
197 2% 71%  
198 4% 69%  
199 2% 65%  
200 12% 63%  
201 1.1% 51%  
202 4% 50%  
203 2% 46%  
204 9% 44% Median
205 0.5% 35%  
206 0.5% 34%  
207 0.3% 34%  
208 0.8% 33%  
209 0.6% 33%  
210 3% 32%  
211 0.5% 29%  
212 0.7% 29%  
213 0.8% 28%  
214 1.0% 27%  
215 2% 26%  
216 2% 25%  
217 1.2% 23%  
218 1.4% 22%  
219 0.2% 20%  
220 3% 20%  
221 4% 17%  
222 0.3% 12%  
223 7% 12%  
224 2% 5%  
225 0.9% 3%  
226 0.2% 2%  
227 0.2% 2%  
228 0.5% 1.4%  
229 0.1% 0.9%  
230 0.1% 0.8%  
231 0.3% 0.7%  
232 0.1% 0.4%  
233 0% 0.3%  
234 0% 0.2%  
235 0.1% 0.2%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.8%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0.1% 99.6%  
138 0.2% 99.5%  
139 0.6% 99.3%  
140 0.5% 98.7%  
141 0.1% 98%  
142 0.4% 98%  
143 0.5% 98%  
144 0.5% 97%  
145 2% 97%  
146 2% 95%  
147 0.8% 93%  
148 0.5% 92%  
149 3% 91%  
150 1.3% 88%  
151 1.3% 87%  
152 3% 86%  
153 3% 83%  
154 5% 80%  
155 8% 75%  
156 2% 68%  
157 1.0% 66%  
158 2% 65%  
159 0.5% 63%  
160 11% 63% Median
161 0.8% 52%  
162 2% 51%  
163 12% 49%  
164 0.5% 37%  
165 2% 37%  
166 0.2% 35%  
167 4% 35%  
168 1.3% 31%  
169 0.7% 30%  
170 0.1% 29%  
171 2% 29%  
172 1.3% 27%  
173 2% 25%  
174 0.5% 23%  
175 5% 23%  
176 5% 18%  
177 4% 14%  
178 0.4% 9%  
179 1.4% 9%  
180 2% 7%  
181 2% 6%  
182 1.2% 3%  
183 0.6% 2%  
184 0.4% 2%  
185 0.1% 1.2%  
186 0.3% 1.1%  
187 0.3% 0.8%  
188 0.1% 0.5%  
189 0.2% 0.4%  
190 0% 0.2%  
191 0.1% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0.1% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.8%  
135 0.1% 99.7%  
136 0.2% 99.6%  
137 0.5% 99.5%  
138 0.2% 99.0%  
139 0.6% 98.8%  
140 0.2% 98%  
141 0.3% 98%  
142 0.8% 98%  
143 0.3% 97%  
144 1.0% 97%  
145 2% 95%  
146 4% 93%  
147 0.6% 90%  
148 0.4% 89%  
149 3% 89%  
150 2% 86%  
151 2% 84%  
152 5% 82%  
153 4% 77%  
154 5% 73%  
155 4% 69%  
156 0.5% 65%  
157 1.0% 64%  
158 1.4% 63%  
159 2% 62%  
160 11% 60% Median
161 1.0% 50%  
162 1.1% 49%  
163 11% 47%  
164 2% 36%  
165 2% 34%  
166 0.6% 32%  
167 1.0% 31%  
168 2% 30%  
169 0.2% 28%  
170 1.2% 28%  
171 2% 27%  
172 1.3% 25%  
173 2% 24%  
174 0.5% 22%  
175 5% 22%  
176 4% 17%  
177 5% 13%  
178 2% 8%  
179 1.0% 6%  
180 2% 5%  
181 0.4% 3%  
182 1.1% 3%  
183 0.5% 2%  
184 0.4% 1.1%  
185 0.2% 0.7%  
186 0.3% 0.6%  
187 0% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0.1% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.8%  
135 0.1% 99.7%  
136 0.2% 99.6%  
137 0.5% 99.5%  
138 0.2% 99.0%  
139 0.6% 98.8%  
140 0.2% 98%  
141 0.3% 98%  
142 0.8% 98%  
143 0.3% 97%  
144 1.0% 97%  
145 2% 95%  
146 4% 93%  
147 0.6% 90%  
148 0.4% 89%  
149 3% 89%  
150 2% 86%  
151 2% 84%  
152 5% 82%  
153 4% 77%  
154 5% 73%  
155 4% 69%  
156 0.5% 65%  
157 1.0% 64%  
158 1.4% 63%  
159 2% 62%  
160 11% 60% Median
161 1.0% 50%  
162 1.1% 49%  
163 11% 47%  
164 2% 36%  
165 2% 34%  
166 0.6% 32%  
167 1.0% 31%  
168 2% 30%  
169 0.2% 28%  
170 1.2% 28%  
171 2% 27%  
172 1.3% 25%  
173 2% 24%  
174 0.5% 22%  
175 5% 22%  
176 4% 17%  
177 5% 13%  
178 2% 8%  
179 1.0% 6%  
180 2% 5%  
181 0.4% 3%  
182 1.1% 3%  
183 0.5% 2%  
184 0.4% 1.1%  
185 0.2% 0.7%  
186 0.3% 0.6%  
187 0% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations