Opinion Poll by YouGov, 24–25 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 35.8% 34.3–37.4% 33.9–37.8% 33.6–38.2% 32.8–38.9%
Labour Party 41.0% 22.9% 21.6–24.3% 21.3–24.7% 20.9–25.0% 20.3–25.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 17.9% 16.7–19.1% 16.4–19.5% 16.1–19.8% 15.6–20.4%
Brexit Party 0.0% 12.0% 11.0–13.0% 10.7–13.4% 10.5–13.6% 10.0–14.1%
Green Party 1.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.2% 4.6–7.6%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.8%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 354 341–371 335–375 330–382 319–389
Labour Party 262 170 150–177 144–180 142–184 135–193
Liberal Democrats 12 56 51–63 50–65 50–68 49–71
Brexit Party 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–4 0–6
Green Party 1 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–5
Scottish National Party 35 43 37–48 34–49 32–51 31–53
Plaid Cymru 4 7 5–11 4–11 4–12 4–13
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.8%  
312 0% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0% 99.7%  
315 0.1% 99.7%  
316 0% 99.6%  
317 0% 99.6% Last Result
318 0% 99.6%  
319 0% 99.5%  
320 0.1% 99.5%  
321 0.1% 99.4%  
322 0.1% 99.3%  
323 0.1% 99.1%  
324 0% 99.0%  
325 0.1% 99.0%  
326 0.8% 98.9% Majority
327 0% 98%  
328 0.4% 98%  
329 0.2% 98%  
330 0.1% 98%  
331 0.4% 97%  
332 0.5% 97%  
333 0.9% 97%  
334 0.6% 96%  
335 0.5% 95%  
336 0.6% 95%  
337 0.7% 94%  
338 0.7% 93%  
339 1.0% 93%  
340 1.1% 92%  
341 0.9% 90%  
342 0.7% 90%  
343 8% 89%  
344 2% 81%  
345 2% 80%  
346 0.9% 77%  
347 1.2% 76%  
348 2% 75%  
349 6% 73%  
350 2% 67%  
351 0.6% 64%  
352 1.2% 64%  
353 2% 63%  
354 23% 61% Median
355 4% 38%  
356 3% 34%  
357 2% 32%  
358 0.7% 30%  
359 1.1% 29%  
360 2% 28%  
361 3% 26%  
362 0.8% 24%  
363 4% 23%  
364 4% 19%  
365 0.5% 15%  
366 0.7% 15%  
367 1.1% 14%  
368 0.4% 13%  
369 0.2% 13%  
370 2% 12%  
371 0.8% 10%  
372 0.1% 9%  
373 0.9% 9%  
374 3% 8%  
375 1.2% 6%  
376 0.7% 5%  
377 0.4% 4%  
378 0.4% 4%  
379 0.2% 3%  
380 0.2% 3%  
381 0.2% 3%  
382 1.3% 3%  
383 0.1% 1.2%  
384 0.2% 1.1%  
385 0.1% 0.9%  
386 0.1% 0.8%  
387 0% 0.7%  
388 0.1% 0.7%  
389 0.1% 0.6%  
390 0% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.4%  
392 0% 0.4%  
393 0% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.3%  
395 0% 0.3%  
396 0.1% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.8%  
132 0.1% 99.8%  
133 0.1% 99.7%  
134 0% 99.7%  
135 0.1% 99.6%  
136 0.2% 99.5%  
137 0.2% 99.3%  
138 0.2% 99.1%  
139 0.1% 98.9%  
140 0.3% 98.8%  
141 0.3% 98%  
142 1.3% 98%  
143 0.6% 97%  
144 1.4% 96%  
145 1.0% 95%  
146 0.8% 94%  
147 0.3% 93%  
148 0.4% 93%  
149 0.5% 92%  
150 6% 92%  
151 0.3% 86%  
152 3% 86%  
153 0.8% 83%  
154 0.2% 82%  
155 0.6% 82%  
156 0.8% 81%  
157 1.0% 80%  
158 0.2% 79%  
159 2% 79%  
160 1.4% 77%  
161 2% 76%  
162 5% 74%  
163 0.5% 69%  
164 1.0% 68%  
165 6% 67%  
166 5% 61%  
167 4% 56%  
168 1.2% 53%  
169 1.0% 51%  
170 1.2% 51% Median
171 24% 49%  
172 4% 26%  
173 2% 21%  
174 1.0% 20%  
175 3% 19%  
176 0.6% 15%  
177 7% 15%  
178 0.8% 8%  
179 2% 7%  
180 1.4% 6%  
181 0.4% 4%  
182 0.4% 4%  
183 0.4% 3%  
184 1.0% 3%  
185 0.2% 2%  
186 0.2% 2%  
187 0.1% 2%  
188 0% 1.5%  
189 0.1% 1.5%  
190 0.1% 1.4%  
191 0% 1.2%  
192 0.3% 1.2%  
193 0.4% 0.9%  
194 0.1% 0.4%  
195 0% 0.3%  
196 0% 0.3%  
197 0% 0.3%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.7% 99.6%  
50 6% 98.9%  
51 9% 93%  
52 0.9% 84%  
53 21% 83%  
54 1.1% 62%  
55 3% 61%  
56 9% 59% Median
57 2% 50%  
58 7% 47%  
59 7% 40%  
60 8% 34%  
61 8% 25%  
62 4% 17%  
63 4% 13%  
64 3% 9%  
65 2% 6%  
66 0.5% 4%  
67 0.4% 4%  
68 1.4% 3%  
69 0.5% 2%  
70 0.2% 1.2%  
71 0.6% 1.0%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 15%  
2 4% 8%  
3 2% 4%  
4 0.9% 3%  
5 0.8% 2%  
6 0.8% 0.9%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 2% 100%  
3 15% 98%  
4 58% 83% Median
5 25% 25%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.7%  
30 0% 99.7%  
31 1.3% 99.7%  
32 1.1% 98%  
33 1.0% 97%  
34 2% 96%  
35 2% 94% Last Result
36 2% 92%  
37 2% 90%  
38 9% 89%  
39 6% 80%  
40 5% 74%  
41 0.3% 69%  
42 6% 69%  
43 26% 63% Median
44 0.7% 37%  
45 7% 36%  
46 14% 29%  
47 2% 15%  
48 7% 13%  
49 1.5% 6%  
50 1.2% 4%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.3% 0.8%  
53 0.2% 0.6%  
54 0.3% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 9% 99.9% Last Result
5 5% 91%  
6 4% 86%  
7 42% 82% Median
8 7% 40%  
9 4% 33%  
10 6% 29%  
11 19% 23%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.9% 1.2%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 409 100% 401–426 397–433 390–436 382–446
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 409 100% 401–426 397–433 390–436 382–446
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 404 100% 391–419 385–428 379–432 370–438
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 397 100% 383–411 380–420 374–421 363–430
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 361 99.4% 350–381 342–384 337–389 325–398
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 354 99.0% 342–373 336–376 331–382 320–390
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 354 98.9% 341–371 335–375 330–382 319–389
Conservative Party 317 354 98.9% 341–371 335–375 330–382 319–389
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 314 278 0.1% 259–290 256–296 250–301 242–312
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 274 0% 255–286 251–292 247–296 238–307
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 267 0% 246–278 242–285 238–289 229–303
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 231 0% 216–245 207–247 207–252 197–262
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 224 0% 208–236 200–241 196–247 189–255
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 224 0% 208–236 200–241 196–247 189–255
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 219 0% 201–226 194–230 190–236 181–245
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 211 0% 192–219 186–223 182–230 174–238
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 178 0% 159–184 153–186 151–190 143–200
Labour Party – Change UK 262 170 0% 150–177 144–180 142–184 135–193
Labour Party 262 170 0% 150–177 144–180 142–184 135–193

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.8%  
376 0% 99.8%  
377 0% 99.8%  
378 0% 99.7%  
379 0.1% 99.7%  
380 0% 99.6%  
381 0% 99.5%  
382 0.1% 99.5%  
383 0.2% 99.4%  
384 0% 99.2%  
385 0.1% 99.2%  
386 0.1% 99.1%  
387 0.1% 99.0%  
388 0.1% 98.9%  
389 1.1% 98.8%  
390 0.3% 98%  
391 0.1% 97%  
392 0.1% 97%  
393 0.2% 97%  
394 0.4% 97%  
395 1.0% 97%  
396 0.4% 96%  
397 0.9% 95%  
398 1.2% 94%  
399 0.2% 93%  
400 1.0% 93%  
401 6% 92%  
402 4% 86%  
403 1.1% 82%  
404 2% 81%  
405 4% 79%  
406 2% 75%  
407 21% 73%  
408 2% 52%  
409 5% 50%  
410 2% 46% Median
411 9% 43%  
412 3% 34%  
413 2% 31%  
414 1.4% 29%  
415 1.3% 28%  
416 1.3% 27%  
417 0.9% 25%  
418 1.0% 24%  
419 2% 23%  
420 0.5% 22%  
421 2% 21%  
422 0.5% 20%  
423 3% 19%  
424 4% 16%  
425 2% 12%  
426 2% 11%  
427 0.3% 8%  
428 0.2% 8%  
429 2% 8%  
430 0.4% 6%  
431 0.1% 6%  
432 0.2% 5%  
433 1.0% 5%  
434 0.6% 4%  
435 1.0% 4%  
436 0.4% 3%  
437 0.2% 2%  
438 0.4% 2%  
439 0.6% 2%  
440 0.1% 1.2%  
441 0.2% 1.1%  
442 0.3% 0.9%  
443 0% 0.7%  
444 0% 0.6%  
445 0.1% 0.6%  
446 0.1% 0.5%  
447 0.1% 0.4%  
448 0% 0.4%  
449 0.1% 0.3%  
450 0% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.2%  
452 0% 0.2%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.8%  
376 0% 99.8%  
377 0% 99.8%  
378 0% 99.7%  
379 0.1% 99.7%  
380 0% 99.6%  
381 0% 99.5%  
382 0.1% 99.5%  
383 0.2% 99.4%  
384 0% 99.2%  
385 0.1% 99.2%  
386 0.1% 99.1%  
387 0.1% 99.0%  
388 0.1% 98.9%  
389 1.1% 98.8%  
390 0.3% 98%  
391 0.1% 97%  
392 0.1% 97%  
393 0.2% 97%  
394 0.4% 97%  
395 1.0% 97%  
396 0.4% 96%  
397 0.9% 95%  
398 1.2% 94%  
399 0.2% 93%  
400 1.0% 93%  
401 6% 92%  
402 4% 86%  
403 1.1% 82%  
404 2% 81%  
405 4% 79%  
406 2% 75%  
407 21% 73%  
408 2% 52%  
409 5% 50%  
410 2% 46% Median
411 9% 43%  
412 3% 34%  
413 2% 31%  
414 1.4% 29%  
415 1.3% 28%  
416 1.3% 27%  
417 0.9% 25%  
418 1.0% 24%  
419 2% 23%  
420 0.5% 22%  
421 2% 21%  
422 0.5% 20%  
423 3% 19%  
424 4% 16%  
425 2% 12%  
426 2% 11%  
427 0.3% 8%  
428 0.2% 8%  
429 2% 8%  
430 0.4% 6%  
431 0.1% 6%  
432 0.2% 5%  
433 1.0% 5%  
434 0.6% 4%  
435 1.0% 4%  
436 0.4% 3%  
437 0.2% 2%  
438 0.4% 2%  
439 0.6% 2%  
440 0.1% 1.2%  
441 0.2% 1.1%  
442 0.3% 0.9%  
443 0% 0.7%  
444 0% 0.6%  
445 0.1% 0.6%  
446 0.1% 0.5%  
447 0.1% 0.4%  
448 0% 0.4%  
449 0.1% 0.3%  
450 0% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.2%  
452 0% 0.2%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100% Last Result
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.8%  
366 0.2% 99.8%  
367 0% 99.7%  
368 0.1% 99.6%  
369 0.1% 99.6%  
370 0% 99.5%  
371 0.1% 99.5%  
372 0% 99.4%  
373 0.2% 99.4%  
374 0.4% 99.2%  
375 0.1% 98.9%  
376 0.3% 98.7%  
377 0.1% 98%  
378 0.7% 98%  
379 0.2% 98%  
380 0.1% 97%  
381 0.2% 97%  
382 0.4% 97%  
383 0.3% 97%  
384 1.3% 96%  
385 0.5% 95%  
386 0.5% 95%  
387 0.6% 94%  
388 1.3% 93%  
389 0.3% 92%  
390 0.4% 92%  
391 2% 92%  
392 6% 89%  
393 0.8% 84%  
394 3% 83%  
395 2% 80%  
396 2% 78%  
397 0.4% 75%  
398 2% 75%  
399 1.2% 73%  
400 3% 72%  
401 2% 69%  
402 2% 67%  
403 0.7% 65%  
404 22% 64% Median
405 2% 43%  
406 6% 40%  
407 3% 34%  
408 4% 31%  
409 0.6% 27%  
410 0.3% 26%  
411 1.3% 26%  
412 3% 24%  
413 1.1% 22%  
414 0.8% 21%  
415 0.7% 20%  
416 0.8% 19%  
417 3% 18%  
418 0.5% 16%  
419 5% 15%  
420 1.1% 10%  
421 2% 9%  
422 0.3% 7%  
423 0.1% 7%  
424 0.4% 7%  
425 0.4% 7%  
426 0.2% 6%  
427 0.2% 6%  
428 2% 6%  
429 0.3% 4%  
430 0.6% 4%  
431 0.1% 3%  
432 2% 3%  
433 0% 1.0%  
434 0.1% 1.0%  
435 0.1% 0.9%  
436 0.1% 0.8%  
437 0.2% 0.7%  
438 0.1% 0.5%  
439 0% 0.4%  
440 0% 0.4%  
441 0.1% 0.4%  
442 0% 0.2%  
443 0.1% 0.2%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100% Last Result
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9%  
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.8%  
358 0% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.8%  
360 0.1% 99.7%  
361 0.1% 99.6%  
362 0% 99.5%  
363 0% 99.5%  
364 0% 99.5%  
365 0% 99.5%  
366 0.1% 99.4%  
367 0.4% 99.4%  
368 0.1% 99.0%  
369 0.4% 98.9%  
370 0.2% 98%  
371 0.1% 98%  
372 0.4% 98%  
373 0.2% 98%  
374 0.8% 98%  
375 0.3% 97%  
376 0.2% 97%  
377 0.1% 96%  
378 0.3% 96%  
379 0.9% 96%  
380 2% 95%  
381 2% 93%  
382 0.3% 91%  
383 3% 91%  
384 0.7% 88%  
385 6% 87%  
386 0.4% 81%  
387 3% 81%  
388 3% 78%  
389 0.6% 75%  
390 2% 74%  
391 0.3% 72%  
392 3% 72%  
393 2% 69%  
394 1.5% 67%  
395 5% 66%  
396 4% 61%  
397 22% 58% Median
398 2% 36%  
399 2% 34%  
400 5% 32%  
401 2% 27%  
402 0.3% 26%  
403 0.1% 25%  
404 0.5% 25%  
405 2% 25%  
406 2% 23%  
407 3% 21%  
408 3% 18%  
409 0.4% 15%  
410 4% 14%  
411 0.6% 10%  
412 1.0% 10%  
413 0.6% 9%  
414 0.9% 8%  
415 0.3% 7%  
416 0.5% 7%  
417 0.4% 6%  
418 0.2% 6%  
419 0.3% 6%  
420 0.8% 6%  
421 3% 5%  
422 0.2% 1.4%  
423 0.1% 1.2%  
424 0% 1.1%  
425 0.1% 1.1%  
426 0.1% 1.0%  
427 0% 0.9%  
428 0.1% 0.9%  
429 0.2% 0.7%  
430 0.2% 0.5%  
431 0.1% 0.4%  
432 0% 0.3%  
433 0% 0.2%  
434 0.1% 0.2%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.8%  
320 0.1% 99.8%  
321 0% 99.7% Last Result
322 0% 99.7%  
323 0% 99.7%  
324 0.1% 99.6%  
325 0.1% 99.5%  
326 0% 99.4% Majority
327 0.1% 99.3%  
328 0.1% 99.3%  
329 0.1% 99.2%  
330 0.7% 99.1%  
331 0.1% 98%  
332 0.2% 98%  
333 0.1% 98%  
334 0.1% 98%  
335 0.4% 98%  
336 0.1% 98%  
337 0.2% 98%  
338 0.4% 97%  
339 0.5% 97%  
340 0.7% 96%  
341 0.7% 96%  
342 0.6% 95%  
343 0.3% 95%  
344 0.3% 94%  
345 1.0% 94%  
346 0.9% 93%  
347 0.3% 92%  
348 1.4% 92%  
349 0.2% 90%  
350 6% 90%  
351 2% 84%  
352 0.7% 82%  
353 2% 81%  
354 2% 79%  
355 0.5% 77%  
356 4% 76%  
357 2% 73%  
358 2% 71%  
359 2% 69%  
360 6% 67%  
361 23% 61% Median
362 0.5% 38%  
363 5% 38%  
364 0.8% 33%  
365 1.0% 32%  
366 4% 31%  
367 2% 27%  
368 0.8% 25%  
369 1.0% 24%  
370 2% 23%  
371 0.4% 21%  
372 0.6% 21%  
373 3% 20%  
374 3% 17%  
375 0.3% 14%  
376 0.2% 13%  
377 0.2% 13%  
378 1.0% 13%  
379 0.8% 12%  
380 0.8% 11%  
381 4% 10%  
382 0.8% 7%  
383 0.6% 6%  
384 0.7% 5%  
385 0.1% 5%  
386 1.4% 5%  
387 0.4% 3%  
388 0.3% 3%  
389 0.4% 3%  
390 0.1% 2%  
391 0.2% 2%  
392 0.1% 2%  
393 1.0% 2%  
394 0.1% 0.9%  
395 0.1% 0.8%  
396 0.2% 0.7%  
397 0% 0.6%  
398 0.1% 0.5%  
399 0% 0.5%  
400 0.1% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.4%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0.1% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.8%  
315 0% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
318 0% 99.6%  
319 0% 99.5%  
320 0% 99.5%  
321 0.1% 99.5%  
322 0.1% 99.4%  
323 0.1% 99.3%  
324 0% 99.2%  
325 0.2% 99.2%  
326 0.1% 99.0% Majority
327 0.1% 98.9%  
328 0.3% 98.8%  
329 0.8% 98%  
330 0% 98%  
331 0.3% 98%  
332 0.4% 97%  
333 0.7% 97%  
334 0.5% 96%  
335 0.5% 96%  
336 0.5% 95%  
337 0.9% 95%  
338 0.7% 94%  
339 1.1% 93%  
340 1.2% 92%  
341 0.8% 91%  
342 0.7% 90%  
343 8% 89%  
344 1.5% 82%  
345 1.0% 80%  
346 2% 79%  
347 1.3% 77%  
348 2% 76%  
349 6% 74%  
350 3% 68%  
351 0.8% 65%  
352 1.2% 64%  
353 2% 63%  
354 23% 61% Median
355 4% 38%  
356 3% 34%  
357 2% 32%  
358 0.7% 30%  
359 0.9% 29%  
360 2% 28%  
361 3% 26%  
362 0.9% 24%  
363 4% 23%  
364 4% 19%  
365 0.5% 16%  
366 0.4% 15%  
367 0.7% 15%  
368 0.8% 14%  
369 0.4% 13%  
370 2% 13%  
371 0.1% 10%  
372 0.1% 10%  
373 1.0% 10%  
374 2% 9%  
375 0.8% 7%  
376 2% 6%  
377 0.7% 5%  
378 0.4% 4%  
379 0.4% 4%  
380 0.2% 3%  
381 0.4% 3%  
382 0.3% 3%  
383 0.2% 2%  
384 0.9% 2%  
385 0.2% 1.2%  
386 0.2% 1.0%  
387 0.1% 0.9%  
388 0.1% 0.7%  
389 0.1% 0.7%  
390 0.1% 0.6%  
391 0.1% 0.5%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.3%  
395 0% 0.3%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.8%  
312 0% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0% 99.7%  
315 0.1% 99.7%  
316 0% 99.6%  
317 0% 99.6% Last Result
318 0% 99.6%  
319 0% 99.5%  
320 0.1% 99.5%  
321 0.1% 99.4%  
322 0.1% 99.3%  
323 0.1% 99.1%  
324 0% 99.0%  
325 0.1% 99.0%  
326 0.8% 98.9% Majority
327 0% 98%  
328 0.4% 98%  
329 0.2% 98%  
330 0.1% 98%  
331 0.4% 97%  
332 0.5% 97%  
333 0.9% 97%  
334 0.6% 96%  
335 0.5% 95%  
336 0.6% 95%  
337 0.7% 94%  
338 0.7% 93%  
339 1.0% 93%  
340 1.1% 92%  
341 0.9% 90%  
342 0.7% 90%  
343 8% 89%  
344 2% 81%  
345 2% 80%  
346 0.9% 77%  
347 1.2% 76%  
348 2% 75%  
349 6% 73%  
350 2% 67%  
351 0.6% 64%  
352 1.2% 64%  
353 2% 63%  
354 23% 61% Median
355 4% 38%  
356 3% 34%  
357 2% 32%  
358 0.7% 30%  
359 1.1% 29%  
360 2% 28%  
361 3% 26%  
362 0.8% 24%  
363 4% 23%  
364 4% 19%  
365 0.5% 15%  
366 0.7% 15%  
367 1.1% 14%  
368 0.4% 13%  
369 0.2% 13%  
370 2% 12%  
371 0.8% 10%  
372 0.1% 9%  
373 0.9% 9%  
374 3% 8%  
375 1.2% 6%  
376 0.7% 5%  
377 0.4% 4%  
378 0.4% 4%  
379 0.2% 3%  
380 0.2% 3%  
381 0.2% 3%  
382 1.3% 3%  
383 0.1% 1.2%  
384 0.2% 1.1%  
385 0.1% 0.9%  
386 0.1% 0.8%  
387 0% 0.7%  
388 0.1% 0.7%  
389 0.1% 0.6%  
390 0% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.4%  
392 0% 0.4%  
393 0% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.3%  
395 0% 0.3%  
396 0.1% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.8%  
312 0% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0% 99.7%  
315 0.1% 99.7%  
316 0% 99.6%  
317 0% 99.6% Last Result
318 0% 99.6%  
319 0% 99.5%  
320 0.1% 99.5%  
321 0.1% 99.4%  
322 0.1% 99.3%  
323 0.1% 99.1%  
324 0% 99.0%  
325 0.1% 99.0%  
326 0.8% 98.9% Majority
327 0% 98%  
328 0.4% 98%  
329 0.2% 98%  
330 0.1% 98%  
331 0.4% 97%  
332 0.5% 97%  
333 0.9% 97%  
334 0.6% 96%  
335 0.5% 95%  
336 0.6% 95%  
337 0.7% 94%  
338 0.7% 93%  
339 1.0% 93%  
340 1.1% 92%  
341 0.9% 90%  
342 0.7% 90%  
343 8% 89%  
344 2% 81%  
345 2% 80%  
346 0.9% 77%  
347 1.2% 76%  
348 2% 75%  
349 6% 73%  
350 2% 67%  
351 0.6% 64%  
352 1.2% 64%  
353 2% 63%  
354 23% 61% Median
355 4% 38%  
356 3% 34%  
357 2% 32%  
358 0.7% 30%  
359 1.1% 29%  
360 2% 28%  
361 3% 26%  
362 0.8% 24%  
363 4% 23%  
364 4% 19%  
365 0.5% 15%  
366 0.7% 15%  
367 1.1% 14%  
368 0.4% 13%  
369 0.2% 13%  
370 2% 12%  
371 0.8% 10%  
372 0.1% 9%  
373 0.9% 9%  
374 3% 8%  
375 1.2% 6%  
376 0.7% 5%  
377 0.4% 4%  
378 0.4% 4%  
379 0.2% 3%  
380 0.2% 3%  
381 0.2% 3%  
382 1.3% 3%  
383 0.1% 1.2%  
384 0.2% 1.1%  
385 0.1% 0.9%  
386 0.1% 0.8%  
387 0% 0.7%  
388 0.1% 0.7%  
389 0.1% 0.6%  
390 0% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.4%  
392 0% 0.4%  
393 0% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.3%  
395 0% 0.3%  
396 0.1% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.7%  
238 0% 99.7%  
239 0% 99.7%  
240 0.1% 99.7%  
241 0.1% 99.6%  
242 0.1% 99.5%  
243 0.1% 99.4%  
244 0.1% 99.3%  
245 0.1% 99.3%  
246 0.2% 99.1%  
247 0.2% 99.0%  
248 0.9% 98.8%  
249 0.2% 98%  
250 0.3% 98%  
251 0.4% 97%  
252 0.2% 97%  
253 0.4% 97%  
254 0.4% 96%  
255 0.7% 96%  
256 2% 95%  
257 0.8% 94%  
258 2% 93%  
259 1.0% 91%  
260 0.1% 90%  
261 0.1% 90%  
262 2% 90%  
263 0.4% 87%  
264 0.8% 87%  
265 0.7% 86%  
266 0.4% 85%  
267 0.5% 85%  
268 4% 84%  
269 4% 81%  
270 0.9% 77%  
271 3% 76%  
272 2% 74%  
273 0.9% 72%  
274 0.7% 71%  
275 2% 70%  
276 3% 68%  
277 4% 66%  
278 23% 62%  
279 2% 39%  
280 1.2% 37% Median
281 0.8% 36%  
282 3% 35%  
283 6% 32%  
284 2% 26%  
285 1.3% 24%  
286 2% 23%  
287 1.0% 21%  
288 1.5% 20%  
289 8% 18%  
290 0.7% 11%  
291 0.8% 10%  
292 1.2% 9%  
293 1.1% 8%  
294 0.7% 7%  
295 0.9% 6%  
296 0.5% 5%  
297 0.5% 5%  
298 0.5% 4%  
299 0.7% 4%  
300 0.4% 3%  
301 0.3% 3%  
302 0% 2%  
303 0.8% 2%  
304 0.3% 2%  
305 0.1% 1.2%  
306 0.1% 1.1%  
307 0.2% 1.0%  
308 0% 0.8%  
309 0.1% 0.8%  
310 0.1% 0.7%  
311 0.1% 0.6%  
312 0% 0.5%  
313 0% 0.5%  
314 0% 0.5% Last Result
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0.1% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.7%  
234 0% 99.7%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.6%  
237 0.1% 99.6%  
238 0.1% 99.5%  
239 0.1% 99.4%  
240 0.1% 99.3%  
241 0.2% 99.2%  
242 0% 99.0%  
243 0.2% 99.0%  
244 0.1% 98.8%  
245 0.9% 98.7%  
246 0.2% 98%  
247 0.6% 98%  
248 0.2% 97%  
249 0.5% 97%  
250 0.7% 96%  
251 0.7% 96%  
252 0.2% 95%  
253 2% 95%  
254 2% 93%  
255 0.7% 91%  
256 0.1% 90%  
257 2% 90%  
258 0.2% 87%  
259 0.4% 87%  
260 0.9% 87%  
261 0.5% 86%  
262 0.5% 85%  
263 0.5% 85%  
264 3% 84%  
265 4% 82%  
266 0.6% 77%  
267 4% 76%  
268 0.6% 72%  
269 0.7% 72%  
270 2% 71%  
271 2% 69%  
272 1.1% 67%  
273 1.0% 66%  
274 26% 65%  
275 2% 39%  
276 0.9% 37% Median
277 0.9% 36%  
278 0.9% 35%  
279 8% 34%  
280 3% 26%  
281 0.7% 23%  
282 2% 23%  
283 1.4% 21%  
284 6% 20%  
285 3% 14%  
286 1.0% 11%  
287 0.7% 10%  
288 2% 9%  
289 0.5% 7%  
290 0.8% 7%  
291 0.8% 6%  
292 0.3% 5%  
293 0.6% 5%  
294 0.6% 4%  
295 0.7% 4%  
296 0.5% 3%  
297 0.2% 2%  
298 0% 2%  
299 0.8% 2%  
300 0.4% 2%  
301 0.1% 1.2%  
302 0.2% 1.0%  
303 0% 0.8%  
304 0.1% 0.8%  
305 0.1% 0.7%  
306 0% 0.6%  
307 0.1% 0.6%  
308 0% 0.5%  
309 0% 0.5%  
310 0% 0.4%  
311 0.1% 0.4%  
312 0.1% 0.3%  
313 0% 0.2% Last Result
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.8%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.8%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0.2% 99.7%  
228 0.1% 99.6%  
229 0% 99.5%  
230 0.2% 99.5%  
231 0.1% 99.3%  
232 0.1% 99.2%  
233 0.1% 99.1%  
234 1.0% 99.1%  
235 0.1% 98%  
236 0.1% 98%  
237 0.1% 98%  
238 0.2% 98%  
239 0.3% 97%  
240 0.7% 97%  
241 0.2% 96%  
242 1.3% 96%  
243 0.5% 95%  
244 1.1% 94%  
245 0.1% 93%  
246 3% 93%  
247 2% 90%  
248 0.6% 88%  
249 0.2% 88%  
250 0.7% 87%  
251 0.1% 87%  
252 0.4% 87%  
253 0.7% 86%  
254 2% 86%  
255 4% 84%  
256 0.6% 80%  
257 0.4% 79%  
258 2% 79%  
259 0.5% 76%  
260 2% 76%  
261 2% 73%  
262 2% 71%  
263 1.0% 69%  
264 0.9% 68%  
265 1.5% 67%  
266 6% 65%  
267 21% 60%  
268 5% 38%  
269 3% 33% Median
270 3% 30%  
271 0.7% 27%  
272 2% 27%  
273 3% 25%  
274 3% 22%  
275 0.8% 20%  
276 2% 19%  
277 6% 17%  
278 2% 11%  
279 0.4% 9%  
280 0.6% 9%  
281 1.4% 8%  
282 0.5% 7%  
283 1.1% 7%  
284 0.3% 5%  
285 0.3% 5%  
286 0.9% 5%  
287 0.5% 4%  
288 0.3% 4%  
289 0.9% 3%  
290 0.1% 2%  
291 0.1% 2%  
292 0% 2%  
293 0.4% 2%  
294 0.1% 2%  
295 0.9% 2%  
296 0.1% 0.9%  
297 0% 0.8%  
298 0.1% 0.8%  
299 0% 0.7%  
300 0% 0.6%  
301 0% 0.6%  
302 0% 0.6%  
303 0.1% 0.5%  
304 0.2% 0.4%  
305 0% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.2%  
308 0% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.1% Last Result
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.8%  
195 0% 99.8%  
196 0.1% 99.7%  
197 0.2% 99.7%  
198 0.1% 99.5%  
199 0.1% 99.4%  
200 0.1% 99.2%  
201 0.1% 99.1%  
202 0.1% 99.0%  
203 0.1% 99.0%  
204 0.1% 98.9%  
205 0.2% 98.7%  
206 1.0% 98.5%  
207 3% 98%  
208 0.5% 95%  
209 0.2% 94%  
210 0.2% 94%  
211 0.7% 94%  
212 0.7% 93%  
213 0.5% 92%  
214 0.8% 92%  
215 0.4% 91%  
216 0.9% 91%  
217 1.3% 90%  
218 4% 89%  
219 3% 85%  
220 0.6% 82%  
221 3% 82%  
222 3% 79%  
223 1.1% 76%  
224 0.9% 75%  
225 0.1% 74%  
226 0.1% 74%  
227 0.9% 74%  
228 2% 73%  
229 7% 71%  
230 0.4% 64%  
231 21% 64%  
232 2% 43%  
233 7% 41% Median
234 0.9% 33%  
235 4% 33%  
236 0.5% 29%  
237 2% 28%  
238 1.2% 26%  
239 2% 25%  
240 1.2% 22%  
241 1.3% 21%  
242 7% 20%  
243 2% 13%  
244 0.7% 12%  
245 3% 11%  
246 2% 8%  
247 2% 6%  
248 0.6% 5%  
249 0.6% 4%  
250 0.3% 4%  
251 0.9% 3%  
252 0.3% 3%  
253 0% 2%  
254 0.1% 2%  
255 0.6% 2%  
256 0.1% 2%  
257 0.1% 2%  
258 0.3% 1.5%  
259 0.2% 1.2%  
260 0% 1.0%  
261 0.3% 0.9%  
262 0.1% 0.6%  
263 0% 0.5%  
264 0% 0.4%  
265 0.1% 0.4%  
266 0% 0.3%  
267 0% 0.2%  
268 0% 0.2%  
269 0% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0.1% 100%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0.1% 99.9%  
186 0.1% 99.8%  
187 0.1% 99.7%  
188 0.1% 99.6%  
189 0% 99.5%  
190 0.2% 99.5%  
191 0.1% 99.3%  
192 0% 99.2%  
193 0.1% 99.2%  
194 0.1% 99.1%  
195 1.0% 99.0%  
196 1.2% 98%  
197 0.5% 97%  
198 0.2% 96%  
199 0.3% 96%  
200 1.4% 96%  
201 0.6% 94%  
202 0.3% 94%  
203 0.3% 93%  
204 0.4% 93%  
205 0.2% 93%  
206 0.9% 93%  
207 1.2% 92%  
208 3% 90%  
209 4% 88%  
210 0.6% 84%  
211 3% 83%  
212 0.4% 81%  
213 0.8% 80%  
214 0.7% 79%  
215 0.6% 79%  
216 3% 78%  
217 0.1% 75%  
218 2% 75%  
219 0.3% 73%  
220 0.9% 73%  
221 6% 72%  
222 8% 66%  
223 1.1% 58%  
224 21% 57%  
225 0.8% 36%  
226 1.0% 35% Median
227 5% 34%  
228 1.1% 28%  
229 0.6% 27%  
230 2% 27%  
231 3% 25%  
232 1.2% 22%  
233 1.4% 21%  
234 3% 20%  
235 6% 17%  
236 1.0% 11%  
237 0.7% 10%  
238 1.4% 9%  
239 0.9% 8%  
240 0.9% 7%  
241 0.9% 6%  
242 0.3% 5%  
243 1.1% 5%  
244 0.3% 3%  
245 0.2% 3%  
246 0.2% 3%  
247 0.9% 3%  
248 0.3% 2%  
249 0.1% 2%  
250 0% 2%  
251 0.3% 1.5%  
252 0.1% 1.1%  
253 0.1% 1.1%  
254 0.3% 1.0%  
255 0.2% 0.7%  
256 0% 0.5%  
257 0% 0.4%  
258 0.2% 0.4%  
259 0% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.2%  
261 0% 0.2%  
262 0% 0.2%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0.1% 100%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0.1% 99.9%  
186 0.1% 99.8%  
187 0.1% 99.7%  
188 0.1% 99.6%  
189 0% 99.5%  
190 0.2% 99.5%  
191 0.1% 99.3%  
192 0% 99.2%  
193 0.1% 99.2%  
194 0.1% 99.1%  
195 1.0% 99.0%  
196 1.2% 98%  
197 0.5% 97%  
198 0.2% 96%  
199 0.3% 96%  
200 1.4% 96%  
201 0.6% 94%  
202 0.3% 94%  
203 0.3% 93%  
204 0.4% 93%  
205 0.2% 93%  
206 0.9% 93%  
207 1.2% 92%  
208 3% 90%  
209 4% 88%  
210 0.6% 84%  
211 3% 83%  
212 0.4% 81%  
213 0.8% 80%  
214 0.7% 79%  
215 0.6% 79%  
216 3% 78%  
217 0.1% 75%  
218 2% 75%  
219 0.3% 73%  
220 0.9% 73%  
221 6% 72%  
222 8% 66%  
223 1.1% 58%  
224 21% 57%  
225 0.8% 36%  
226 1.0% 35% Median
227 5% 34%  
228 1.1% 28%  
229 0.6% 27%  
230 2% 27%  
231 3% 25%  
232 1.2% 22%  
233 1.4% 21%  
234 3% 20%  
235 6% 17%  
236 1.0% 11%  
237 0.7% 10%  
238 1.4% 9%  
239 0.9% 8%  
240 0.9% 7%  
241 0.9% 6%  
242 0.3% 5%  
243 1.1% 5%  
244 0.3% 3%  
245 0.2% 3%  
246 0.2% 3%  
247 0.9% 3%  
248 0.3% 2%  
249 0.1% 2%  
250 0% 2%  
251 0.3% 1.5%  
252 0.1% 1.1%  
253 0.1% 1.1%  
254 0.3% 1.0%  
255 0.2% 0.7%  
256 0% 0.5%  
257 0% 0.4%  
258 0.2% 0.4%  
259 0% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.2%  
261 0% 0.2%  
262 0% 0.2%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0% 99.9%  
175 0.1% 99.9%  
176 0.1% 99.8%  
177 0% 99.8%  
178 0% 99.8%  
179 0.2% 99.7%  
180 0.1% 99.6%  
181 0.1% 99.5%  
182 0% 99.4%  
183 0.1% 99.4%  
184 0.2% 99.2%  
185 0.1% 99.1%  
186 0.1% 99.0%  
187 0.6% 98.8%  
188 0.3% 98%  
189 0.2% 98%  
190 1.0% 98%  
191 0.4% 97%  
192 0.2% 96%  
193 0.2% 96%  
194 1.0% 96%  
195 0.3% 95%  
196 0.2% 95%  
197 0.3% 94%  
198 0.6% 94%  
199 1.3% 93%  
200 0.2% 92%  
201 3% 92%  
202 0.9% 89%  
203 0.9% 88%  
204 4% 87%  
205 3% 84%  
206 1.4% 81%  
207 0.9% 79%  
208 0.3% 78%  
209 2% 78%  
210 0.9% 76%  
211 0.8% 75%  
212 2% 74%  
213 0.2% 72%  
214 1.0% 72%  
215 2% 71%  
216 6% 69%  
217 2% 63%  
218 7% 61%  
219 5% 54%  
220 1.0% 49% Median
221 21% 48%  
222 3% 27%  
223 2% 23%  
224 3% 21%  
225 1.3% 19%  
226 8% 17%  
227 2% 10%  
228 0.7% 7%  
229 0.5% 6%  
230 2% 6%  
231 0.2% 4%  
232 0.5% 4%  
233 0.6% 4%  
234 0.4% 3%  
235 0.2% 3%  
236 0.8% 3%  
237 0.3% 2%  
238 0.1% 2%  
239 0.4% 1.4%  
240 0.1% 1.0%  
241 0.1% 0.9%  
242 0% 0.8%  
243 0.1% 0.7%  
244 0.1% 0.7%  
245 0.3% 0.6%  
246 0.1% 0.4%  
247 0% 0.3%  
248 0% 0.3%  
249 0% 0.3%  
250 0% 0.2%  
251 0% 0.2%  
252 0% 0.2%  
253 0% 0.2%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
162 0.1% 100%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.8%  
168 0.1% 99.8%  
169 0.1% 99.8%  
170 0% 99.7%  
171 0% 99.7%  
172 0% 99.7%  
173 0.1% 99.6%  
174 0.2% 99.5%  
175 0.1% 99.4%  
176 0.2% 99.3%  
177 0.2% 99.1%  
178 0.1% 98.9%  
179 0.3% 98.8%  
180 0.3% 98.5%  
181 0.7% 98%  
182 0.8% 98%  
183 1.3% 97%  
184 0.3% 96%  
185 0.2% 95%  
186 0.4% 95%  
187 0.1% 95%  
188 2% 95%  
189 0.3% 93%  
190 2% 93%  
191 0.1% 90%  
192 1.1% 90%  
193 2% 89%  
194 0.2% 87%  
195 0.4% 87%  
196 3% 86%  
197 1.4% 83%  
198 0.9% 81%  
199 0.3% 81%  
200 1.2% 80%  
201 1.2% 79%  
202 3% 78%  
203 0.9% 74%  
204 0.6% 74%  
205 2% 73%  
206 2% 71%  
207 1.4% 69%  
208 6% 67%  
209 3% 61%  
210 6% 58%  
211 4% 53%  
212 3% 49%  
213 0.8% 47% Median
214 22% 46%  
215 4% 23%  
216 2% 19%  
217 1.1% 18%  
218 2% 16%  
219 7% 15%  
220 1.1% 8%  
221 0.6% 7%  
222 0.2% 6%  
223 1.2% 6%  
224 0.5% 5%  
225 0.4% 4%  
226 0.7% 4%  
227 0.2% 3%  
228 0.2% 3%  
229 0.3% 3%  
230 0.4% 3%  
231 0.1% 2%  
232 1.1% 2%  
233 0.1% 1.0%  
234 0.1% 0.9%  
235 0% 0.8%  
236 0.1% 0.8%  
237 0.1% 0.7%  
238 0.2% 0.6%  
239 0% 0.4%  
240 0% 0.4%  
241 0.1% 0.4%  
242 0.1% 0.3%  
243 0% 0.2%  
244 0% 0.2%  
245 0% 0.2%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.8%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0.1% 99.8%  
143 0.2% 99.6%  
144 0.1% 99.5%  
145 0.1% 99.4%  
146 0.1% 99.3%  
147 0.4% 99.2%  
148 0.1% 98.7%  
149 0.8% 98.7%  
150 0.3% 98%  
151 0.3% 98%  
152 0.3% 97%  
153 2% 97%  
154 0.1% 95%  
155 2% 95%  
156 1.0% 93%  
157 1.5% 92%  
158 0.1% 91%  
159 3% 91%  
160 0.8% 87%  
161 2% 86%  
162 0.1% 84%  
163 3% 84%  
164 1.1% 81%  
165 0.8% 80%  
166 0.7% 79%  
167 0.9% 78%  
168 1.0% 77%  
169 0.5% 76%  
170 3% 76%  
171 3% 73%  
172 5% 70%  
173 10% 66%  
174 0.7% 56%  
175 0.3% 55%  
176 0.8% 55%  
177 2% 54% Median
178 24% 52%  
179 4% 28%  
180 0.9% 24%  
181 2% 23%  
182 3% 22%  
183 0.8% 18%  
184 9% 18%  
185 1.4% 9%  
186 3% 7%  
187 0.9% 5%  
188 0.8% 4%  
189 0.2% 3%  
190 0.4% 3%  
191 0.1% 2%  
192 0.2% 2%  
193 0.1% 2%  
194 0.3% 2%  
195 0.1% 2%  
196 0% 1.4%  
197 0.3% 1.4%  
198 0% 1.1%  
199 0.3% 1.1%  
200 0.3% 0.8%  
201 0.1% 0.4%  
202 0% 0.4%  
203 0.1% 0.3%  
204 0% 0.3%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0% 0.2%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.8%  
132 0.1% 99.8%  
133 0.1% 99.7%  
134 0% 99.7%  
135 0.1% 99.6%  
136 0.2% 99.5%  
137 0.2% 99.3%  
138 0.2% 99.1%  
139 0.1% 98.9%  
140 0.3% 98.8%  
141 0.3% 98%  
142 1.3% 98%  
143 0.6% 97%  
144 1.4% 96%  
145 1.0% 95%  
146 0.8% 94%  
147 0.3% 93%  
148 0.4% 93%  
149 0.5% 92%  
150 6% 92%  
151 0.3% 86%  
152 3% 86%  
153 0.8% 83%  
154 0.2% 82%  
155 0.6% 82%  
156 0.8% 81%  
157 1.0% 80%  
158 0.2% 79%  
159 2% 79%  
160 1.4% 77%  
161 2% 76%  
162 5% 74%  
163 0.5% 69%  
164 1.0% 68%  
165 6% 67%  
166 5% 61%  
167 4% 56%  
168 1.2% 53%  
169 1.0% 51%  
170 1.2% 51% Median
171 24% 49%  
172 4% 26%  
173 2% 21%  
174 1.0% 20%  
175 3% 19%  
176 0.6% 15%  
177 7% 15%  
178 0.8% 8%  
179 2% 7%  
180 1.4% 6%  
181 0.4% 4%  
182 0.4% 4%  
183 0.4% 3%  
184 1.0% 3%  
185 0.2% 2%  
186 0.2% 2%  
187 0.1% 2%  
188 0% 1.5%  
189 0.1% 1.5%  
190 0.1% 1.4%  
191 0% 1.2%  
192 0.3% 1.2%  
193 0.4% 0.9%  
194 0.1% 0.4%  
195 0% 0.3%  
196 0% 0.3%  
197 0% 0.3%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.8%  
132 0.1% 99.8%  
133 0.1% 99.7%  
134 0% 99.7%  
135 0.1% 99.6%  
136 0.2% 99.5%  
137 0.2% 99.3%  
138 0.2% 99.1%  
139 0.1% 98.9%  
140 0.3% 98.8%  
141 0.3% 98%  
142 1.3% 98%  
143 0.6% 97%  
144 1.4% 96%  
145 1.0% 95%  
146 0.8% 94%  
147 0.3% 93%  
148 0.4% 93%  
149 0.5% 92%  
150 6% 92%  
151 0.3% 86%  
152 3% 86%  
153 0.8% 83%  
154 0.2% 82%  
155 0.6% 82%  
156 0.8% 81%  
157 1.0% 80%  
158 0.2% 79%  
159 2% 79%  
160 1.4% 77%  
161 2% 76%  
162 5% 74%  
163 0.5% 69%  
164 1.0% 68%  
165 6% 67%  
166 5% 61%  
167 4% 56%  
168 1.2% 53%  
169 1.0% 51%  
170 1.2% 51% Median
171 24% 49%  
172 4% 26%  
173 2% 21%  
174 1.0% 20%  
175 3% 19%  
176 0.6% 15%  
177 7% 15%  
178 0.8% 8%  
179 2% 7%  
180 1.4% 6%  
181 0.4% 4%  
182 0.4% 4%  
183 0.4% 3%  
184 1.0% 3%  
185 0.2% 2%  
186 0.2% 2%  
187 0.1% 2%  
188 0% 1.5%  
189 0.1% 1.5%  
190 0.1% 1.4%  
191 0% 1.2%  
192 0.3% 1.2%  
193 0.4% 0.9%  
194 0.1% 0.4%  
195 0% 0.3%  
196 0% 0.3%  
197 0% 0.3%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations