Opinion Poll by ComRes for Sunday Express, 30–31 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 36.1% 34.6–37.7% 34.1–38.1% 33.8–38.5% 33.0–39.3%
Labour Party 41.0% 28.1% 26.6–29.6% 26.2–30.0% 25.9–30.3% 25.2–31.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 17.1% 15.9–18.3% 15.6–18.7% 15.3–19.0% 14.7–19.6%
Brexit Party 0.0% 10.1% 9.1–11.1% 8.9–11.4% 8.7–11.6% 8.2–12.1%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.4%
Green Party 1.7% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%
Change UK 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 310 298–334 296–343 290–347 282–355
Labour Party 262 215 194–223 187–229 184–233 178–237
Liberal Democrats 12 50 47–60 46–60 46–61 42–65
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 35 51 46–53 45–53 43–54 39–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Plaid Cymru 4 2 2–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.6%  
282 0.4% 99.5%  
283 0.2% 99.1%  
284 0.2% 99.0%  
285 0.4% 98.8%  
286 0.5% 98%  
287 0.1% 98%  
288 0.1% 98%  
289 0.1% 98%  
290 0.2% 98%  
291 0.6% 97%  
292 0.3% 97%  
293 0.3% 96%  
294 0.4% 96%  
295 0.7% 96%  
296 2% 95%  
297 3% 93%  
298 0.6% 90%  
299 2% 89%  
300 1.2% 88%  
301 2% 87%  
302 0.7% 85%  
303 2% 84%  
304 1.1% 82%  
305 1.2% 81%  
306 5% 80%  
307 4% 75%  
308 2% 70%  
309 17% 68%  
310 1.0% 51% Median
311 1.2% 50%  
312 4% 48%  
313 1.4% 45%  
314 2% 43%  
315 1.1% 41%  
316 0.6% 40%  
317 0.5% 40% Last Result
318 0.2% 39%  
319 1.1% 39%  
320 2% 38%  
321 2% 36%  
322 0.6% 33%  
323 1.2% 33%  
324 3% 32%  
325 1.0% 28%  
326 3% 27% Majority
327 2% 24%  
328 4% 22%  
329 0.8% 19%  
330 0.7% 18%  
331 0.7% 17%  
332 0.8% 16%  
333 5% 16%  
334 1.3% 11%  
335 0.3% 10%  
336 0.1% 9%  
337 0.8% 9%  
338 0.5% 8%  
339 0.9% 8%  
340 0.4% 7%  
341 0.4% 7%  
342 0.5% 6%  
343 1.0% 6%  
344 0.5% 5%  
345 0.5% 4%  
346 0.7% 4%  
347 0.9% 3%  
348 0.7% 2%  
349 0.2% 1.4%  
350 0.2% 1.2%  
351 0.1% 1.0%  
352 0.1% 0.9%  
353 0.2% 0.8%  
354 0% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.5%  
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0.1% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.8%  
174 0.1% 99.8%  
175 0% 99.7%  
176 0.1% 99.7%  
177 0.1% 99.6%  
178 0.2% 99.6%  
179 0.2% 99.4%  
180 0% 99.1%  
181 0.1% 99.1%  
182 0.5% 99.0%  
183 0.6% 98.5%  
184 2% 98%  
185 0.3% 96%  
186 0.1% 96%  
187 1.0% 96%  
188 0.4% 95%  
189 0.6% 94%  
190 0.5% 94%  
191 2% 93%  
192 0.9% 91%  
193 0.1% 90%  
194 3% 90%  
195 4% 88%  
196 2% 83%  
197 0.3% 81%  
198 2% 81%  
199 3% 79%  
200 2% 76%  
201 1.4% 74%  
202 0.6% 72%  
203 3% 72%  
204 4% 69%  
205 3% 65%  
206 0.7% 61%  
207 0.3% 61%  
208 0.7% 60%  
209 2% 60%  
210 0.6% 57%  
211 0.7% 57%  
212 1.3% 56%  
213 0.6% 55%  
214 4% 54%  
215 2% 50% Median
216 6% 48%  
217 0.2% 42%  
218 0.4% 42%  
219 3% 41%  
220 3% 38%  
221 14% 35%  
222 9% 21%  
223 3% 12%  
224 2% 9%  
225 1.0% 7%  
226 0.3% 6%  
227 0.3% 6%  
228 0.3% 5%  
229 0.6% 5%  
230 0.1% 5%  
231 0.3% 4%  
232 1.2% 4%  
233 0.6% 3%  
234 1.0% 2%  
235 0.4% 1.4%  
236 0.4% 1.0%  
237 0.1% 0.6%  
238 0% 0.5%  
239 0.1% 0.5%  
240 0.1% 0.3%  
241 0% 0.3%  
242 0% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.2%  
244 0.1% 0.2%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.9% 99.7%  
43 0.1% 98.8%  
44 0.5% 98.7%  
45 0.5% 98%  
46 5% 98%  
47 15% 92%  
48 5% 77%  
49 21% 72%  
50 3% 51% Median
51 3% 47%  
52 4% 44%  
53 0.7% 40%  
54 5% 40%  
55 1.2% 34%  
56 2% 33%  
57 3% 31%  
58 11% 28%  
59 6% 17%  
60 7% 11%  
61 2% 4%  
62 0.3% 2%  
63 0.6% 2%  
64 0.3% 1.0%  
65 0.4% 0.8%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.9% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 98.9%  
41 0.1% 98.6%  
42 0% 98%  
43 3% 98%  
44 0.2% 95%  
45 3% 95%  
46 7% 93%  
47 0.4% 86%  
48 4% 85%  
49 3% 82%  
50 20% 78%  
51 28% 59% Median
52 0.2% 30%  
53 27% 30%  
54 3% 3%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 97% 100% Last Result, Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0.9% 93%  
2 55% 92% Median
3 29% 37%  
4 8% 8% Last Result
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 363 99.9% 352–387 349–395 341–399 335–404
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 365 99.9% 353–387 349–392 344–398 340–404
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 365 99.9% 353–387 349–392 344–398 340–404
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 360 99.9% 349–384 346–392 339–396 332–401
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 313 33% 300–337 298–345 291–350 284–356
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 310 27% 298–334 296–343 290–347 282–355
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 310 27% 298–334 296–343 290–347 282–355
Conservative Party 317 310 27% 298–334 296–343 290–347 282–355
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 314 322 25% 298–334 289–336 285–342 277–350
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 321 20% 297–333 288–335 284–341 276–349
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 318 17% 294–331 286–333 281–340 275–347
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 271 0% 247–282 239–285 235–292 230–299
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 268 0% 244–279 236–282 232–290 227–296
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 268 0% 244–279 236–282 232–290 227–296
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 266 0% 244–278 239–281 233–287 227–291
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 264 0% 241–275 237–279 231–284 224–289
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 217 0% 196–225 190–230 186–236 180–240
Labour Party – Change UK 262 215 0% 194–223 187–229 184–233 178–237
Labour Party 262 215 0% 194–223 187–229 184–233 178–237

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9% Majority
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.8%  
332 0% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.8%  
334 0.1% 99.6%  
335 0.1% 99.6%  
336 0.2% 99.4%  
337 0.3% 99.3%  
338 0.2% 98.9%  
339 0.3% 98.8%  
340 0.5% 98.5%  
341 0.6% 98%  
342 0.1% 97%  
343 0.3% 97%  
344 0.5% 97%  
345 0.2% 96%  
346 0.1% 96%  
347 0.2% 96%  
348 0.6% 96%  
349 0.9% 95%  
350 1.3% 94%  
351 2% 93%  
352 4% 92%  
353 2% 88%  
354 2% 86%  
355 4% 84%  
356 1.5% 80% Last Result
357 3% 79%  
358 3% 76%  
359 0.9% 73%  
360 2% 72%  
361 11% 71%  
362 9% 59%  
363 2% 50% Median
364 0.4% 49%  
365 0.5% 48%  
366 0.1% 48%  
367 3% 48%  
368 2% 44%  
369 2% 43%  
370 0.7% 40%  
371 0.3% 40%  
372 0.9% 39%  
373 2% 38%  
374 0.8% 37%  
375 2% 36%  
376 3% 34%  
377 3% 31%  
378 3% 28%  
379 1.0% 25%  
380 3% 24%  
381 2% 21%  
382 0.8% 19%  
383 3% 18%  
384 0.2% 15%  
385 0.2% 15%  
386 1.3% 14%  
387 3% 13%  
388 2% 10%  
389 0.7% 7%  
390 0.6% 7%  
391 0.2% 6%  
392 0.2% 6%  
393 0.2% 6%  
394 0.2% 6%  
395 1.1% 5%  
396 0.9% 4%  
397 0.3% 3%  
398 0.5% 3%  
399 0.9% 3%  
400 0.6% 2%  
401 0.1% 1.1%  
402 0.1% 1.0%  
403 0.2% 0.9%  
404 0.3% 0.7%  
405 0.1% 0.4%  
406 0% 0.3%  
407 0% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.3%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0.1% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9% Majority
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9% Last Result
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.8%  
333 0% 99.8%  
334 0% 99.8%  
335 0% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.8%  
337 0% 99.7%  
338 0% 99.7%  
339 0.1% 99.6%  
340 0.2% 99.5%  
341 0.5% 99.3%  
342 0.4% 98.8%  
343 0.5% 98%  
344 0.6% 98%  
345 0.9% 97%  
346 0.3% 96%  
347 0.3% 96%  
348 0.2% 96%  
349 0.5% 96%  
350 0.5% 95%  
351 0.6% 95%  
352 0.8% 94%  
353 4% 93%  
354 0.4% 89%  
355 6% 89%  
356 9% 83%  
357 1.0% 74%  
358 11% 73%  
359 1.2% 62%  
360 2% 61% Median
361 0.5% 59%  
362 5% 59%  
363 0.6% 54%  
364 2% 53%  
365 1.2% 51%  
366 1.2% 49%  
367 4% 48%  
368 0.2% 44%  
369 0.6% 44%  
370 3% 43%  
371 3% 40%  
372 4% 38%  
373 0.9% 33%  
374 1.1% 33%  
375 3% 31%  
376 0.4% 28%  
377 4% 28%  
378 0.6% 24%  
379 1.3% 24%  
380 3% 22%  
381 0.6% 20%  
382 5% 19%  
383 0.6% 14%  
384 0.5% 14%  
385 1.2% 13%  
386 0.8% 12%  
387 2% 11%  
388 0.8% 9%  
389 0.6% 9%  
390 0.3% 8%  
391 1.4% 8%  
392 1.5% 6%  
393 0.4% 5%  
394 0.7% 4%  
395 0.3% 4%  
396 0.5% 3%  
397 0.2% 3%  
398 0.5% 3%  
399 0.9% 2%  
400 0.2% 1.2%  
401 0.2% 1.0%  
402 0.1% 0.8%  
403 0.1% 0.8%  
404 0.2% 0.7%  
405 0.1% 0.4%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0% 0.3%  
408 0.1% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9% Majority
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9% Last Result
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.8%  
333 0% 99.8%  
334 0% 99.8%  
335 0% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.8%  
337 0% 99.7%  
338 0% 99.7%  
339 0.1% 99.6%  
340 0.2% 99.5%  
341 0.5% 99.3%  
342 0.4% 98.8%  
343 0.5% 98%  
344 0.6% 98%  
345 0.9% 97%  
346 0.3% 96%  
347 0.3% 96%  
348 0.2% 96%  
349 0.5% 96%  
350 0.5% 95%  
351 0.6% 95%  
352 0.8% 94%  
353 4% 93%  
354 0.4% 89%  
355 6% 89%  
356 9% 83%  
357 1.0% 74%  
358 11% 73%  
359 1.2% 62%  
360 2% 61% Median
361 0.5% 59%  
362 5% 59%  
363 0.6% 54%  
364 2% 53%  
365 1.2% 51%  
366 1.2% 49%  
367 4% 48%  
368 0.2% 44%  
369 0.6% 44%  
370 3% 43%  
371 3% 40%  
372 4% 38%  
373 0.9% 33%  
374 1.1% 33%  
375 3% 31%  
376 0.4% 28%  
377 4% 28%  
378 0.6% 24%  
379 1.3% 24%  
380 3% 22%  
381 0.6% 20%  
382 5% 19%  
383 0.6% 14%  
384 0.5% 14%  
385 1.2% 13%  
386 0.8% 12%  
387 2% 11%  
388 0.8% 9%  
389 0.6% 9%  
390 0.3% 8%  
391 1.4% 8%  
392 1.5% 6%  
393 0.4% 5%  
394 0.7% 4%  
395 0.3% 4%  
396 0.5% 3%  
397 0.2% 3%  
398 0.5% 3%  
399 0.9% 2%  
400 0.2% 1.2%  
401 0.2% 1.0%  
402 0.1% 0.8%  
403 0.1% 0.8%  
404 0.2% 0.7%  
405 0.1% 0.4%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0% 0.3%  
408 0.1% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9% Majority
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.8%  
329 0% 99.8%  
330 0.1% 99.8%  
331 0.1% 99.6%  
332 0.1% 99.6%  
333 0.1% 99.5%  
334 0.1% 99.4%  
335 0.3% 99.3%  
336 0.2% 99.0%  
337 0.7% 98.7%  
338 0.4% 98%  
339 0.2% 98%  
340 0.2% 97%  
341 0.4% 97%  
342 0.2% 97%  
343 0.1% 97%  
344 0.4% 97%  
345 0.6% 96%  
346 0.6% 96%  
347 0.9% 95%  
348 3% 94%  
349 2% 91%  
350 4% 90%  
351 0.5% 86%  
352 1.3% 85% Last Result
353 4% 84%  
354 3% 80%  
355 2% 77%  
356 1.1% 75%  
357 1.1% 74%  
358 3% 73%  
359 12% 70%  
360 9% 58%  
361 0.6% 49% Median
362 0.4% 49%  
363 0.4% 48%  
364 0.5% 48%  
365 4% 47%  
366 2% 44%  
367 2% 42%  
368 0.5% 40%  
369 0.8% 39%  
370 0.8% 39%  
371 0.9% 38%  
372 2% 37%  
373 3% 35%  
374 4% 33%  
375 2% 29%  
376 2% 27%  
377 3% 24%  
378 0.9% 22%  
379 2% 21%  
380 1.4% 18%  
381 2% 17%  
382 0.3% 15%  
383 1.2% 15%  
384 4% 13%  
385 0.8% 10%  
386 1.4% 9%  
387 0.7% 7%  
388 0.4% 7%  
389 0.2% 6%  
390 0.5% 6%  
391 0.5% 6%  
392 0.7% 5%  
393 1.1% 5%  
394 0.1% 4%  
395 0.5% 3%  
396 0.7% 3%  
397 0.9% 2%  
398 0.3% 1.3%  
399 0.1% 1.0%  
400 0.3% 0.9%  
401 0.2% 0.7%  
402 0.1% 0.5%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.3%  
407 0% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.3%  
409 0.1% 0.2%  
410 0.1% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.7%  
283 0.1% 99.7%  
284 0.3% 99.6%  
285 0.3% 99.3%  
286 0.1% 99.0%  
287 0.2% 98.9%  
288 0.5% 98.7%  
289 0.5% 98%  
290 0.1% 98%  
291 0.4% 98%  
292 0.2% 97%  
293 0.2% 97%  
294 0.2% 97%  
295 0.4% 97%  
296 0.5% 96%  
297 0.7% 96%  
298 0.5% 95%  
299 2% 95%  
300 2% 92%  
301 1.0% 90%  
302 1.2% 89%  
303 1.4% 88%  
304 3% 86%  
305 0.6% 84%  
306 1.2% 83%  
307 2% 82%  
308 5% 80%  
309 4% 75%  
310 3% 71%  
311 17% 68%  
312 1.2% 51% Median
313 1.5% 50%  
314 4% 49%  
315 1.3% 45%  
316 2% 44%  
317 0.9% 42%  
318 0.7% 41%  
319 0.7% 40%  
320 0.3% 39%  
321 0.3% 39% Last Result
322 2% 39%  
323 2% 37%  
324 2% 35%  
325 0.3% 33%  
326 3% 33% Majority
327 1.3% 29%  
328 2% 28%  
329 2% 26%  
330 5% 23%  
331 0.3% 19%  
332 1.0% 18%  
333 0.5% 17%  
334 0.7% 17%  
335 1.3% 16%  
336 4% 15%  
337 1.1% 11%  
338 0.1% 9%  
339 1.2% 9%  
340 0.3% 8%  
341 0.7% 8%  
342 0.6% 7%  
343 0.1% 7%  
344 0.6% 6%  
345 1.3% 6%  
346 0.4% 5%  
347 0.2% 4%  
348 0.4% 4%  
349 0.9% 4%  
350 0.6% 3%  
351 0.8% 2%  
352 0.1% 1.3%  
353 0.2% 1.2%  
354 0.2% 1.0%  
355 0.1% 0.8%  
356 0.3% 0.7%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.6%  
282 0.4% 99.5%  
283 0.2% 99.1%  
284 0.2% 99.0%  
285 0.4% 98.8%  
286 0.5% 98%  
287 0.1% 98%  
288 0.1% 98%  
289 0.1% 98%  
290 0.2% 98%  
291 0.6% 97%  
292 0.3% 97%  
293 0.3% 96%  
294 0.4% 96%  
295 0.7% 96%  
296 2% 95%  
297 3% 93%  
298 0.6% 90%  
299 2% 89%  
300 1.2% 88%  
301 2% 87%  
302 0.7% 85%  
303 2% 84%  
304 1.2% 82%  
305 1.2% 81%  
306 5% 80%  
307 4% 75%  
308 2% 70%  
309 17% 68%  
310 1.0% 51% Median
311 1.2% 50%  
312 4% 48%  
313 1.4% 45%  
314 2% 43%  
315 1.1% 41%  
316 0.6% 40%  
317 0.4% 40% Last Result
318 0.2% 39%  
319 1.1% 39%  
320 2% 38%  
321 2% 36%  
322 0.6% 33%  
323 1.2% 33%  
324 3% 32%  
325 1.0% 28%  
326 3% 27% Majority
327 2% 24%  
328 4% 22%  
329 0.8% 19%  
330 0.7% 18%  
331 0.7% 17%  
332 0.8% 16%  
333 5% 16%  
334 1.3% 11%  
335 0.3% 10%  
336 0.1% 9%  
337 0.8% 9%  
338 0.5% 8%  
339 0.9% 8%  
340 0.4% 7%  
341 0.4% 7%  
342 0.5% 6%  
343 1.0% 6%  
344 0.5% 5%  
345 0.5% 4%  
346 0.7% 4%  
347 0.9% 3%  
348 0.7% 2%  
349 0.2% 1.4%  
350 0.2% 1.2%  
351 0.1% 1.0%  
352 0.1% 0.9%  
353 0.2% 0.8%  
354 0% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.5%  
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.6%  
282 0.4% 99.5%  
283 0.2% 99.1%  
284 0.2% 99.0%  
285 0.4% 98.8%  
286 0.5% 98%  
287 0.1% 98%  
288 0.1% 98%  
289 0.1% 98%  
290 0.2% 98%  
291 0.6% 97%  
292 0.3% 97%  
293 0.3% 96%  
294 0.4% 96%  
295 0.7% 96%  
296 2% 95%  
297 3% 93%  
298 0.6% 90%  
299 2% 89%  
300 1.2% 88%  
301 2% 87%  
302 0.7% 85%  
303 2% 84%  
304 1.1% 82%  
305 1.2% 81%  
306 5% 80%  
307 4% 75%  
308 2% 70%  
309 17% 68%  
310 1.0% 51% Median
311 1.2% 50%  
312 4% 48%  
313 1.4% 45%  
314 2% 43%  
315 1.1% 41%  
316 0.6% 40%  
317 0.5% 40% Last Result
318 0.2% 39%  
319 1.1% 39%  
320 2% 38%  
321 2% 36%  
322 0.6% 33%  
323 1.2% 33%  
324 3% 32%  
325 1.0% 28%  
326 3% 27% Majority
327 2% 24%  
328 4% 22%  
329 0.8% 19%  
330 0.7% 18%  
331 0.7% 17%  
332 0.8% 16%  
333 5% 16%  
334 1.3% 11%  
335 0.3% 10%  
336 0.1% 9%  
337 0.8% 9%  
338 0.5% 8%  
339 0.9% 8%  
340 0.4% 7%  
341 0.4% 7%  
342 0.5% 6%  
343 1.0% 6%  
344 0.5% 5%  
345 0.5% 4%  
346 0.7% 4%  
347 0.9% 3%  
348 0.7% 2%  
349 0.2% 1.4%  
350 0.2% 1.2%  
351 0.1% 1.0%  
352 0.1% 0.9%  
353 0.2% 0.8%  
354 0% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.5%  
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.6%  
282 0.4% 99.5%  
283 0.2% 99.1%  
284 0.2% 99.0%  
285 0.4% 98.8%  
286 0.5% 98%  
287 0.1% 98%  
288 0.1% 98%  
289 0.1% 98%  
290 0.2% 98%  
291 0.6% 97%  
292 0.3% 97%  
293 0.3% 96%  
294 0.4% 96%  
295 0.7% 96%  
296 2% 95%  
297 3% 93%  
298 0.6% 90%  
299 2% 89%  
300 1.2% 88%  
301 2% 87%  
302 0.7% 85%  
303 2% 84%  
304 1.1% 82%  
305 1.2% 81%  
306 5% 80%  
307 4% 75%  
308 2% 70%  
309 17% 68%  
310 1.0% 51% Median
311 1.2% 50%  
312 4% 48%  
313 1.4% 45%  
314 2% 43%  
315 1.1% 41%  
316 0.6% 40%  
317 0.5% 40% Last Result
318 0.2% 39%  
319 1.1% 39%  
320 2% 38%  
321 2% 36%  
322 0.6% 33%  
323 1.2% 33%  
324 3% 32%  
325 1.0% 28%  
326 3% 27% Majority
327 2% 24%  
328 4% 22%  
329 0.8% 19%  
330 0.7% 18%  
331 0.7% 17%  
332 0.8% 16%  
333 5% 16%  
334 1.3% 11%  
335 0.3% 10%  
336 0.1% 9%  
337 0.8% 9%  
338 0.5% 8%  
339 0.9% 8%  
340 0.4% 7%  
341 0.4% 7%  
342 0.5% 6%  
343 1.0% 6%  
344 0.5% 5%  
345 0.5% 4%  
346 0.7% 4%  
347 0.9% 3%  
348 0.7% 2%  
349 0.2% 1.4%  
350 0.2% 1.2%  
351 0.1% 1.0%  
352 0.1% 0.9%  
353 0.2% 0.8%  
354 0% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.5%  
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.1% 99.6%  
278 0% 99.5%  
279 0.2% 99.5%  
280 0.1% 99.2%  
281 0.1% 99.1%  
282 0.2% 99.0%  
283 0.2% 98.8%  
284 0.7% 98.6%  
285 0.9% 98%  
286 0.7% 97%  
287 0.5% 96%  
288 0.5% 96%  
289 1.0% 95%  
290 0.5% 94%  
291 0.4% 94%  
292 0.4% 93%  
293 0.9% 93%  
294 0.5% 92%  
295 0.8% 92%  
296 0.1% 91%  
297 0.3% 91%  
298 1.3% 90%  
299 5% 89%  
300 0.8% 84%  
301 0.7% 84%  
302 0.7% 83%  
303 0.8% 82%  
304 4% 81%  
305 2% 78%  
306 3% 76%  
307 1.0% 73%  
308 3% 72%  
309 1.2% 68%  
310 0.6% 67%  
311 2% 67%  
312 2% 64%  
313 1.1% 62%  
314 0.2% 61% Last Result
315 0.4% 61%  
316 0.6% 60%  
317 1.1% 60%  
318 2% 59%  
319 1.4% 57% Median
320 4% 55%  
321 1.2% 52%  
322 1.0% 50%  
323 17% 49%  
324 2% 32%  
325 4% 30%  
326 5% 25% Majority
327 1.2% 20%  
328 1.2% 19%  
329 2% 18%  
330 0.7% 16%  
331 2% 15%  
332 1.2% 13%  
333 2% 12%  
334 0.6% 11%  
335 3% 10%  
336 2% 7%  
337 0.7% 5%  
338 0.4% 4%  
339 0.3% 4%  
340 0.3% 4%  
341 0.6% 3%  
342 0.2% 3%  
343 0.1% 2%  
344 0.1% 2%  
345 0.1% 2%  
346 0.5% 2%  
347 0.4% 2%  
348 0.2% 1.2%  
349 0.2% 1.0%  
350 0.4% 0.9%  
351 0.1% 0.5%  
352 0% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.2%  
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0% 99.5%  
278 0.2% 99.5%  
279 0.1% 99.2%  
280 0.1% 99.1%  
281 0.2% 99.0%  
282 0.2% 98.8%  
283 0.7% 98.6%  
284 0.9% 98%  
285 0.7% 97%  
286 0.5% 96%  
287 0.5% 96%  
288 1.0% 95%  
289 0.5% 94%  
290 0.4% 94%  
291 0.4% 93%  
292 0.9% 93%  
293 0.5% 92%  
294 0.8% 92%  
295 0.1% 91%  
296 0.3% 91%  
297 1.3% 90%  
298 5% 89%  
299 0.8% 84%  
300 0.8% 84%  
301 0.6% 83%  
302 0.8% 82%  
303 4% 81%  
304 2% 78%  
305 3% 76%  
306 1.0% 72%  
307 3% 71%  
308 1.1% 68%  
309 0.6% 67%  
310 2% 67%  
311 3% 64%  
312 0.8% 62%  
313 0.2% 61% Last Result
314 0.6% 61%  
315 0.4% 60%  
316 1.0% 60%  
317 2% 59%  
318 1.4% 56% Median
319 4% 55%  
320 1.2% 52%  
321 1.1% 50%  
322 17% 49%  
323 2% 32%  
324 4% 30%  
325 5% 25%  
326 1.2% 20% Majority
327 1.4% 19%  
328 1.4% 17%  
329 0.8% 16%  
330 2% 15%  
331 1.0% 13%  
332 2% 12%  
333 0.7% 11%  
334 3% 10%  
335 2% 7%  
336 0.7% 5%  
337 0.4% 4%  
338 0.3% 4%  
339 0.3% 4%  
340 0.6% 3%  
341 0.2% 3%  
342 0.1% 2%  
343 0.1% 2%  
344 0.1% 2%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.3% 1.2%  
348 0.1% 0.9%  
349 0.5% 0.8%  
350 0% 0.4%  
351 0% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.3% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.3%  
277 0.2% 99.2%  
278 0.2% 99.0%  
279 0.1% 98.8%  
280 0.8% 98.7%  
281 0.6% 98%  
282 0.9% 97%  
283 0.4% 96%  
284 0.2% 96%  
285 0.4% 96%  
286 1.3% 95%  
287 0.5% 94%  
288 0.1% 94%  
289 0.6% 93%  
290 0.7% 93%  
291 0.3% 92%  
292 1.2% 92%  
293 0.1% 91%  
294 1.1% 91%  
295 4% 89%  
296 1.3% 85%  
297 0.7% 84%  
298 0.5% 83%  
299 1.0% 83%  
300 0.4% 82%  
301 5% 81%  
302 2% 77%  
303 2% 74%  
304 1.2% 72%  
305 3% 71%  
306 0.3% 67%  
307 2% 67%  
308 2% 65%  
309 2% 63% Last Result
310 0.3% 61%  
311 0.4% 61%  
312 0.6% 60%  
313 0.7% 60%  
314 0.9% 59%  
315 2% 58%  
316 1.3% 56% Median
317 4% 55%  
318 1.5% 51%  
319 1.2% 50%  
320 17% 49%  
321 3% 32%  
322 4% 29%  
323 5% 25%  
324 2% 20%  
325 1.0% 18%  
326 0.6% 17% Majority
327 3% 16%  
328 1.2% 14%  
329 1.2% 12%  
330 1.2% 11%  
331 2% 10%  
332 2% 8%  
333 0.4% 5%  
334 0.7% 5%  
335 0.5% 4%  
336 0.4% 4%  
337 0.2% 3%  
338 0.2% 3%  
339 0.2% 3%  
340 0.4% 3%  
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.5% 2%  
343 0.5% 2%  
344 0.1% 1.2%  
345 0.2% 1.1%  
346 0.2% 0.9%  
347 0.3% 0.7%  
348 0.1% 0.4%  
349 0% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.3%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0.1% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0% 99.8%  
224 0% 99.7%  
225 0% 99.7%  
226 0% 99.7%  
227 0% 99.7%  
228 0.1% 99.7%  
229 0.1% 99.6%  
230 0.2% 99.5%  
231 0.3% 99.3%  
232 0.1% 99.1%  
233 0.3% 99.0%  
234 0.9% 98.7%  
235 0.7% 98%  
236 0.5% 97%  
237 0.1% 97%  
238 1.1% 96%  
239 0.7% 95%  
240 0.5% 95%  
241 0.5% 94%  
242 0.2% 94%  
243 0.4% 94%  
244 0.7% 93%  
245 1.4% 93%  
246 0.8% 91%  
247 4% 90%  
248 1.2% 87%  
249 0.3% 85%  
250 2% 85%  
251 1.4% 83%  
252 2% 82%  
253 1.0% 79%  
254 3% 78%  
255 2% 75%  
256 2% 73%  
257 4% 71%  
258 3% 67%  
259 1.4% 64%  
260 1.1% 63%  
261 0.7% 62%  
262 0.8% 61%  
263 0.5% 60%  
264 2% 60%  
265 2% 58%  
266 4% 56%  
267 0.5% 53% Median
268 0.4% 52%  
269 0.4% 52%  
270 0.6% 51%  
271 9% 51%  
272 12% 42%  
273 3% 30%  
274 1.1% 27%  
275 1.1% 26%  
276 3% 25%  
277 3% 22%  
278 3% 20% Last Result
279 1.4% 16%  
280 0.4% 15%  
281 4% 14%  
282 2% 10%  
283 2% 8%  
284 0.9% 6%  
285 0.7% 5%  
286 0.5% 4%  
287 0.4% 4%  
288 0.1% 3%  
289 0.2% 3%  
290 0.4% 3%  
291 0.2% 3%  
292 0.2% 3%  
293 0.4% 2%  
294 0.7% 2%  
295 0.1% 1.1%  
296 0.4% 1.0%  
297 0% 0.6%  
298 0.1% 0.6%  
299 0.1% 0.5%  
300 0.1% 0.4%  
301 0.1% 0.4%  
302 0% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0.1% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0% 99.7%  
224 0% 99.7%  
225 0% 99.7%  
226 0.1% 99.7%  
227 0.3% 99.6%  
228 0.2% 99.3%  
229 0.1% 99.1%  
230 0.1% 99.0%  
231 0.6% 98.9%  
232 0.9% 98%  
233 0.5% 97%  
234 0.3% 97%  
235 0.9% 97%  
236 1.1% 96%  
237 0.2% 95%  
238 0.2% 94%  
239 0.2% 94%  
240 0.2% 94%  
241 0.6% 94%  
242 0.7% 93%  
243 2% 93%  
244 3% 90%  
245 1.3% 87%  
246 0.2% 86%  
247 0.2% 85%  
248 3% 85%  
249 0.8% 82%  
250 2% 81%  
251 3% 79%  
252 1.3% 76%  
253 3% 75%  
254 3% 72%  
255 3% 69%  
256 2% 66%  
257 1.0% 64%  
258 2% 63%  
259 0.6% 61%  
260 0.3% 61%  
261 0.8% 60%  
262 2% 60%  
263 2% 57%  
264 3% 56%  
265 0.1% 52% Median
266 0.5% 52%  
267 0.4% 52%  
268 2% 51%  
269 9% 50%  
270 11% 41%  
271 2% 29%  
272 0.9% 28%  
273 3% 27%  
274 3% 24% Last Result
275 1.4% 21%  
276 4% 20%  
277 1.4% 16%  
278 2% 14%  
279 4% 12%  
280 1.5% 8%  
281 1.3% 7%  
282 1.0% 6%  
283 0.5% 5%  
284 0.2% 4%  
285 0.1% 4%  
286 0.2% 4%  
287 0.5% 4%  
288 0.4% 3%  
289 0.1% 3%  
290 0.6% 3%  
291 0.5% 2%  
292 0.4% 1.5%  
293 0.1% 1.1%  
294 0.4% 1.0%  
295 0.1% 0.6%  
296 0.2% 0.6%  
297 0.1% 0.4%  
298 0.1% 0.4%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0.1% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0% 99.7%  
224 0% 99.7%  
225 0% 99.7%  
226 0.1% 99.7%  
227 0.3% 99.6%  
228 0.2% 99.3%  
229 0.1% 99.1%  
230 0.1% 99.0%  
231 0.6% 98.9%  
232 0.9% 98%  
233 0.5% 97%  
234 0.3% 97%  
235 0.9% 97%  
236 1.1% 96%  
237 0.2% 95%  
238 0.2% 94%  
239 0.2% 94%  
240 0.2% 94%  
241 0.6% 94%  
242 0.7% 93%  
243 2% 93%  
244 3% 90%  
245 1.3% 87%  
246 0.2% 86%  
247 0.2% 85%  
248 3% 85%  
249 0.8% 82%  
250 2% 81%  
251 3% 79%  
252 1.3% 76%  
253 3% 75%  
254 3% 72%  
255 3% 69%  
256 2% 66%  
257 1.0% 64%  
258 2% 63%  
259 0.6% 61%  
260 0.3% 61%  
261 0.8% 60%  
262 2% 60%  
263 2% 57%  
264 3% 56%  
265 0.1% 52% Median
266 0.5% 52%  
267 0.4% 52%  
268 2% 51%  
269 9% 50%  
270 11% 41%  
271 2% 29%  
272 0.9% 28%  
273 3% 27%  
274 3% 24% Last Result
275 1.4% 21%  
276 4% 20%  
277 1.4% 16%  
278 2% 14%  
279 4% 12%  
280 1.5% 8%  
281 1.3% 7%  
282 1.0% 6%  
283 0.5% 5%  
284 0.2% 4%  
285 0.1% 4%  
286 0.2% 4%  
287 0.5% 4%  
288 0.4% 3%  
289 0.1% 3%  
290 0.6% 3%  
291 0.5% 2%  
292 0.4% 1.5%  
293 0.1% 1.1%  
294 0.4% 1.0%  
295 0.1% 0.6%  
296 0.2% 0.6%  
297 0.1% 0.4%  
298 0.1% 0.4%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.7%  
226 0.1% 99.6%  
227 0.2% 99.5%  
228 0.1% 99.3%  
229 0.1% 99.2%  
230 0.2% 99.2%  
231 0.2% 99.0%  
232 0.9% 98.8%  
233 0.5% 98%  
234 0.2% 97%  
235 0.6% 97%  
236 0.3% 97%  
237 0.7% 96%  
238 0.4% 96%  
239 1.5% 95%  
240 1.4% 94%  
241 0.3% 92%  
242 0.6% 92%  
243 0.8% 91%  
244 2% 91%  
245 0.8% 89%  
246 1.1% 88%  
247 0.5% 87%  
248 0.6% 86%  
249 5% 86%  
250 0.6% 81%  
251 3% 80%  
252 1.3% 78%  
253 0.6% 76%  
254 3% 76%  
255 0.4% 72%  
256 3% 72%  
257 1.1% 68%  
258 0.9% 67%  
259 4% 66%  
260 3% 62%  
261 3% 60%  
262 0.6% 57%  
263 0.2% 56%  
264 4% 56%  
265 1.2% 52%  
266 1.2% 51%  
267 2% 49%  
268 0.6% 47% Median
269 5% 46%  
270 0.5% 41%  
271 2% 41%  
272 1.3% 39%  
273 10% 38%  
274 1.0% 27%  
275 9% 26%  
276 6% 17%  
277 0.4% 11%  
278 4% 11%  
279 0.9% 7%  
280 0.3% 6%  
281 0.5% 5%  
282 0.5% 5%  
283 0.3% 4%  
284 0.2% 4%  
285 0.3% 4%  
286 1.0% 4%  
287 0.7% 3%  
288 0.4% 2%  
289 0.4% 2%  
290 0.5% 1.2%  
291 0.3% 0.7%  
292 0.1% 0.4%  
293 0% 0.4%  
294 0% 0.3%  
295 0.1% 0.3%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0.1% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1% Last Result
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.8%  
224 0.3% 99.7%  
225 0.1% 99.4%  
226 0.1% 99.3%  
227 0.1% 99.2%  
228 0.2% 99.1%  
229 0.9% 99.0%  
230 0.1% 98%  
231 0.5% 98%  
232 0.4% 97%  
233 0.3% 97%  
234 0.6% 97%  
235 0.4% 96%  
236 0.3% 96%  
237 3% 95%  
238 0.6% 93%  
239 0.9% 92%  
240 0.2% 91%  
241 1.4% 91%  
242 1.2% 90%  
243 0.6% 89%  
244 1.1% 88%  
245 0.4% 87%  
246 5% 87%  
247 0.9% 82%  
248 1.5% 81%  
249 2% 79%  
250 1.5% 77%  
251 0.3% 75%  
252 2% 75%  
253 4% 73%  
254 2% 69%  
255 1.0% 68%  
256 2% 67%  
257 3% 65%  
258 2% 62%  
259 3% 59%  
260 0.3% 56%  
261 0.6% 56%  
262 4% 55%  
263 1.3% 52%  
264 1.1% 51%  
265 2% 49%  
266 1.4% 47% Median
267 5% 46%  
268 0.7% 40%  
269 1.0% 40%  
270 2% 39%  
271 10% 36%  
272 2% 27%  
273 11% 25%  
274 4% 14%  
275 1.0% 10%  
276 3% 9%  
277 0.7% 6%  
278 0.3% 6%  
279 0.4% 5%  
280 0.3% 5%  
281 0.2% 5%  
282 0.7% 4%  
283 0.8% 4%  
284 0.7% 3%  
285 0.3% 2%  
286 0.3% 2%  
287 0.7% 2%  
288 0.4% 0.9%  
289 0.2% 0.5%  
290 0% 0.3%  
291 0% 0.3%  
292 0% 0.3%  
293 0% 0.3%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0.1% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.8%  
174 0.1% 99.8%  
175 0% 99.7%  
176 0% 99.7%  
177 0% 99.7%  
178 0% 99.7%  
179 0.1% 99.7%  
180 0.1% 99.6%  
181 0% 99.5%  
182 0.4% 99.5%  
183 0.2% 99.1%  
184 0.4% 98.9%  
185 0.9% 98%  
186 0.5% 98%  
187 1.4% 97%  
188 0.1% 96%  
189 0.4% 96%  
190 0.7% 95%  
191 0.3% 94%  
192 1.2% 94%  
193 0.3% 93%  
194 2% 93%  
195 0.1% 90%  
196 3% 90%  
197 0.1% 88%  
198 5% 88%  
199 1.0% 82%  
200 2% 81%  
201 2% 79%  
202 1.4% 77%  
203 3% 76%  
204 1.3% 73%  
205 0.8% 72%  
206 6% 71%  
207 3% 65%  
208 2% 63%  
209 1.0% 61%  
210 0.1% 60%  
211 2% 60%  
212 0.3% 57%  
213 0.8% 57%  
214 1.5% 56%  
215 1.1% 55%  
216 4% 54%  
217 2% 50% Median
218 6% 48%  
219 0.7% 42%  
220 0.3% 42%  
221 1.4% 41%  
222 2% 40%  
223 14% 38%  
224 10% 24%  
225 5% 14%  
226 2% 9%  
227 0.8% 7%  
228 0.7% 7%  
229 0.5% 6%  
230 0.5% 5%  
231 0.1% 5%  
232 0.3% 5%  
233 0.2% 4%  
234 0.4% 4%  
235 1.1% 4%  
236 1.1% 3%  
237 0.5% 2%  
238 0.5% 1.1%  
239 0.1% 0.6%  
240 0% 0.5%  
241 0% 0.5%  
242 0.2% 0.5%  
243 0.1% 0.3%  
244 0% 0.2%  
245 0% 0.2%  
246 0% 0.2%  
247 0.1% 0.2%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0.1% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.8%  
174 0.1% 99.8%  
175 0% 99.7%  
176 0.1% 99.7%  
177 0.1% 99.6%  
178 0.2% 99.6%  
179 0.2% 99.4%  
180 0% 99.1%  
181 0.1% 99.1%  
182 0.5% 99.0%  
183 0.6% 98.5%  
184 2% 98%  
185 0.3% 96%  
186 0.1% 96%  
187 1.0% 96%  
188 0.4% 95%  
189 0.6% 94%  
190 0.5% 94%  
191 2% 93%  
192 0.9% 91%  
193 0.1% 90%  
194 3% 90%  
195 4% 88%  
196 2% 83%  
197 0.3% 81%  
198 2% 81%  
199 3% 79%  
200 2% 76%  
201 1.4% 74%  
202 0.6% 72%  
203 3% 72%  
204 4% 69%  
205 3% 65%  
206 0.7% 61%  
207 0.3% 61%  
208 0.7% 60%  
209 2% 60%  
210 0.6% 57%  
211 0.7% 57%  
212 1.3% 56%  
213 0.6% 55%  
214 4% 54%  
215 2% 50% Median
216 6% 48%  
217 0.2% 42%  
218 0.4% 42%  
219 3% 41%  
220 3% 38%  
221 14% 35%  
222 9% 21%  
223 3% 12%  
224 2% 9%  
225 1.0% 7%  
226 0.3% 6%  
227 0.3% 6%  
228 0.3% 5%  
229 0.6% 5%  
230 0.1% 5%  
231 0.3% 4%  
232 1.2% 4%  
233 0.6% 3%  
234 1.0% 2%  
235 0.4% 1.4%  
236 0.4% 1.0%  
237 0.1% 0.6%  
238 0% 0.5%  
239 0.1% 0.5%  
240 0.1% 0.3%  
241 0% 0.3%  
242 0% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.2%  
244 0.1% 0.2%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0.1% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.8%  
174 0.1% 99.8%  
175 0% 99.7%  
176 0.1% 99.7%  
177 0.1% 99.6%  
178 0.2% 99.6%  
179 0.2% 99.4%  
180 0% 99.1%  
181 0.1% 99.1%  
182 0.5% 99.0%  
183 0.6% 98.5%  
184 2% 98%  
185 0.3% 96%  
186 0.1% 96%  
187 1.0% 96%  
188 0.4% 95%  
189 0.6% 94%  
190 0.5% 94%  
191 2% 93%  
192 0.9% 91%  
193 0.1% 90%  
194 3% 90%  
195 4% 88%  
196 2% 83%  
197 0.3% 81%  
198 2% 81%  
199 3% 79%  
200 2% 76%  
201 1.4% 74%  
202 0.6% 72%  
203 3% 72%  
204 4% 69%  
205 3% 65%  
206 0.7% 61%  
207 0.3% 61%  
208 0.7% 60%  
209 2% 60%  
210 0.6% 57%  
211 0.7% 57%  
212 1.3% 56%  
213 0.6% 55%  
214 4% 54%  
215 2% 50% Median
216 6% 48%  
217 0.2% 42%  
218 0.4% 42%  
219 3% 41%  
220 3% 38%  
221 14% 35%  
222 9% 21%  
223 3% 12%  
224 2% 9%  
225 1.0% 7%  
226 0.3% 6%  
227 0.3% 6%  
228 0.3% 5%  
229 0.6% 5%  
230 0.1% 5%  
231 0.3% 4%  
232 1.2% 4%  
233 0.6% 3%  
234 1.0% 2%  
235 0.4% 1.4%  
236 0.4% 1.0%  
237 0.1% 0.6%  
238 0% 0.5%  
239 0.1% 0.5%  
240 0.1% 0.3%  
241 0% 0.3%  
242 0% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.2%  
244 0.1% 0.2%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations