Opinion Poll by Opinium for The Observer, 30 October–1 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 41.4% 40.0–42.8% 39.6–43.2% 39.2–43.5% 38.6–44.2%
Labour Party 41.0% 25.6% 24.4–26.9% 24.0–27.3% 23.7–27.6% 23.2–28.2%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 15.8% 14.8–16.9% 14.5–17.2% 14.2–17.4% 13.8–18.0%
Brexit Party 0.0% 8.9% 8.1–9.8% 7.9–10.0% 7.7–10.2% 7.4–10.6%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 3.9% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 2.9–5.2%
Green Party 1.7% 1.9% 1.6–2.4% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.9%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 370 356–386 352–392 349–394 344–405
Labour Party 262 161 150–176 147–178 142–180 137–184
Liberal Democrats 12 43 37–46 36–48 36–48 32–50
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 35 50 45–51 42–52 40–53 37–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 7 4–9 4–10 4–11 4–11
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0% 99.7%  
343 0% 99.7%  
344 0.2% 99.7%  
345 0.2% 99.5%  
346 0.5% 99.2%  
347 0% 98.7%  
348 0.4% 98.7%  
349 0.8% 98%  
350 0.6% 97%  
351 0.5% 97%  
352 2% 96%  
353 0.5% 95%  
354 0.8% 94%  
355 0.4% 93%  
356 3% 93%  
357 5% 90%  
358 0.8% 85%  
359 2% 84%  
360 0.8% 83%  
361 3% 82%  
362 4% 79%  
363 0.9% 74%  
364 0.4% 73%  
365 1.1% 73%  
366 8% 72%  
367 1.2% 64%  
368 3% 63%  
369 2% 60%  
370 8% 58% Median
371 2% 50%  
372 4% 48%  
373 5% 44%  
374 3% 39%  
375 5% 36%  
376 0.6% 32%  
377 1.1% 31%  
378 3% 30%  
379 2% 27%  
380 0.8% 26%  
381 4% 25%  
382 1.5% 21%  
383 6% 19%  
384 0.6% 13%  
385 3% 13%  
386 3% 10%  
387 0.7% 7%  
388 0.3% 7%  
389 0.4% 6%  
390 0.5% 6%  
391 0.4% 5%  
392 1.1% 5%  
393 0.4% 4%  
394 1.1% 4%  
395 0.1% 2%  
396 0.2% 2%  
397 0.3% 2%  
398 0.2% 2%  
399 0.3% 2%  
400 0.1% 1.4%  
401 0.4% 1.2%  
402 0.1% 0.9%  
403 0.2% 0.8%  
404 0.1% 0.6%  
405 0% 0.5%  
406 0.1% 0.5%  
407 0% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.3%  
409 0% 0.3%  
410 0.2% 0.3%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0.3% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.7%  
135 0% 99.6%  
136 0% 99.6%  
137 0.1% 99.5%  
138 0.3% 99.5%  
139 0.4% 99.2%  
140 0.7% 98.9%  
141 0.4% 98%  
142 0.6% 98%  
143 0.4% 97%  
144 0.3% 97%  
145 0.8% 96%  
146 0.5% 96%  
147 0.9% 95%  
148 2% 94%  
149 1.1% 92%  
150 3% 91%  
151 4% 88%  
152 4% 84%  
153 5% 81%  
154 1.0% 76%  
155 0.2% 75%  
156 4% 74%  
157 13% 71%  
158 0.1% 58%  
159 2% 58%  
160 3% 55%  
161 9% 53% Median
162 1.0% 44%  
163 0.4% 43%  
164 1.0% 42%  
165 3% 41%  
166 0.3% 38%  
167 10% 38%  
168 2% 28%  
169 0.3% 26%  
170 1.1% 26%  
171 1.3% 24%  
172 3% 23%  
173 6% 20%  
174 2% 14%  
175 0.6% 12%  
176 3% 12%  
177 2% 8%  
178 2% 6%  
179 0.7% 4%  
180 1.4% 3%  
181 0.4% 2%  
182 0.8% 2%  
183 0.2% 0.7%  
184 0.2% 0.5%  
185 0.1% 0.4%  
186 0% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 0.3% 99.4%  
34 0.6% 99.1%  
35 0.3% 98.5%  
36 3% 98%  
37 6% 95%  
38 2% 89%  
39 13% 87%  
40 9% 74%  
41 2% 65%  
42 11% 63%  
43 16% 52% Median
44 18% 36%  
45 7% 18%  
46 4% 12%  
47 2% 7%  
48 3% 5%  
49 1.1% 2%  
50 0.6% 0.9%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
36 0.2% 99.8%  
37 0.1% 99.6%  
38 0.2% 99.5%  
39 2% 99.3%  
40 1.2% 98%  
41 1.0% 97%  
42 3% 96%  
43 0.5% 93%  
44 0.2% 92%  
45 7% 92%  
46 0.3% 85%  
47 8% 85%  
48 13% 77%  
49 0.1% 64%  
50 44% 63% Median
51 13% 19%  
52 3% 6%  
53 0.9% 3%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 15% 99.9% Last Result
5 7% 85%  
6 2% 77%  
7 25% 75% Median
8 25% 50%  
9 16% 25%  
10 6% 9%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 427 100% 413–439 409–444 406–448 401–456
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 420 100% 405–433 403–437 400–441 395–448
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 413 100% 400–427 397–431 395–434 390–445
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 413 100% 400–427 397–431 395–434 390–445
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 377 100% 364–392 359–400 356–402 351–412
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 370 100% 356–386 352–392 349–394 344–405
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 370 100% 356–386 352–392 349–394 344–405
Conservative Party 317 370 100% 356–386 352–392 349–394 344–405
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 314 262 0% 246–276 240–280 238–283 227–288
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 261 0% 245–275 239–279 237–282 226–287
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 254 0% 239–267 231–272 229–275 219–280
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 218 0% 204–231 200–234 197–236 186–241
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 211 0% 198–226 194–228 190–231 183–236
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 211 0% 198–227 191–228 188–231 179–234
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 204 0% 192–218 187–222 183–225 175–230
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 204 0% 192–218 187–222 183–225 175–230
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 168 0% 157–182 154–185 150–187 145–190
Labour Party – Change UK 262 161 0% 150–176 147–178 142–180 137–184
Labour Party 262 161 0% 150–176 147–178 142–180 137–184

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100% Last Result
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0% 99.9%  
393 0% 99.9%  
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0% 99.8%  
399 0.2% 99.8%  
400 0.1% 99.6%  
401 0.3% 99.6%  
402 0.1% 99.2%  
403 0.2% 99.1%  
404 0.3% 98.9%  
405 0.8% 98.6%  
406 0.4% 98%  
407 2% 97%  
408 0.1% 95%  
409 0.6% 95%  
410 0.7% 95%  
411 3% 94%  
412 0.8% 91%  
413 5% 90%  
414 0.6% 85%  
415 3% 85%  
416 2% 82%  
417 1.4% 80%  
418 2% 78%  
419 2% 76%  
420 3% 74%  
421 1.4% 71%  
422 2% 69%  
423 1.1% 67%  
424 2% 66%  
425 7% 65%  
426 2% 58%  
427 9% 56% Median
428 0.7% 47%  
429 0.7% 46%  
430 5% 46%  
431 0.5% 41%  
432 10% 40%  
433 2% 30%  
434 0.7% 29%  
435 0.5% 28%  
436 4% 28%  
437 7% 24%  
438 5% 17%  
439 3% 12%  
440 0.6% 10%  
441 2% 9%  
442 0.8% 7%  
443 1.0% 7%  
444 1.0% 5%  
445 0.4% 4%  
446 0.8% 4%  
447 0.3% 3%  
448 0.5% 3%  
449 0.2% 2%  
450 0.4% 2%  
451 0.6% 2%  
452 0.1% 1.2%  
453 0.2% 1.2%  
454 0.4% 1.0%  
455 0.1% 0.6%  
456 0.1% 0.6%  
457 0.1% 0.5%  
458 0% 0.4%  
459 0% 0.3%  
460 0.2% 0.3%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100% Last Result
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0.1% 99.8%  
392 0% 99.8%  
393 0% 99.7%  
394 0.1% 99.7%  
395 0.2% 99.6%  
396 0.4% 99.4%  
397 0.3% 99.0%  
398 0.6% 98.7%  
399 0.5% 98%  
400 1.2% 98%  
401 0.5% 96%  
402 0.8% 96%  
403 2% 95%  
404 0.3% 94%  
405 5% 93%  
406 0.8% 88%  
407 5% 87%  
408 2% 83%  
409 0.9% 81%  
410 3% 80%  
411 2% 77%  
412 3% 75%  
413 3% 72%  
414 0.7% 69%  
415 1.2% 68%  
416 7% 67%  
417 0.7% 59%  
418 1.0% 59%  
419 0.4% 58%  
420 10% 57% Median
421 0.2% 47%  
422 4% 47%  
423 5% 43%  
424 3% 38%  
425 4% 35%  
426 0.4% 30%  
427 0.9% 30%  
428 1.4% 29%  
429 8% 28%  
430 3% 20%  
431 0.6% 17%  
432 0.9% 17%  
433 7% 16%  
434 2% 9%  
435 1.3% 7%  
436 0.5% 6%  
437 0.7% 5%  
438 0.4% 4%  
439 0.9% 4%  
440 0.3% 3%  
441 0.6% 3%  
442 0.2% 2%  
443 0.3% 2%  
444 0.6% 2%  
445 0.1% 1.1%  
446 0.5% 1.1%  
447 0.1% 0.6%  
448 0% 0.5%  
449 0% 0.5%  
450 0.1% 0.4%  
451 0.1% 0.4%  
452 0% 0.3%  
453 0.2% 0.3%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.8%  
387 0% 99.7%  
388 0.1% 99.7%  
389 0% 99.7%  
390 0.2% 99.6%  
391 0.4% 99.4%  
392 0.3% 99.1%  
393 0.4% 98.7%  
394 0.8% 98%  
395 2% 98%  
396 0.4% 96%  
397 0.7% 95%  
398 2% 95%  
399 2% 93%  
400 4% 91%  
401 0.8% 88%  
402 5% 87%  
403 1.2% 82%  
404 3% 81%  
405 7% 77%  
406 4% 70%  
407 0.6% 67%  
408 3% 66%  
409 1.3% 63%  
410 3% 62%  
411 0.8% 59%  
412 0.8% 58%  
413 11% 58% Median
414 0.4% 46%  
415 2% 46%  
416 7% 44%  
417 5% 38%  
418 4% 33%  
419 1.1% 28%  
420 0.8% 27%  
421 0.5% 26%  
422 4% 26%  
423 7% 21%  
424 0.7% 15%  
425 1.2% 14%  
426 1.2% 13%  
427 2% 12%  
428 3% 10%  
429 0.5% 7%  
430 0.3% 6%  
431 1.2% 6%  
432 0.4% 5%  
433 0.5% 4%  
434 1.2% 4%  
435 0.2% 2%  
436 0.2% 2%  
437 0.2% 2%  
438 0.1% 2%  
439 0.4% 2%  
440 0.2% 1.3%  
441 0.1% 1.2%  
442 0.2% 1.1%  
443 0.3% 0.9%  
444 0% 0.6%  
445 0.2% 0.5%  
446 0% 0.4%  
447 0% 0.3%  
448 0.2% 0.3%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.8%  
387 0% 99.7%  
388 0.1% 99.7%  
389 0% 99.7%  
390 0.2% 99.6%  
391 0.4% 99.4%  
392 0.3% 99.1%  
393 0.4% 98.7%  
394 0.8% 98%  
395 2% 98%  
396 0.4% 96%  
397 0.7% 95%  
398 2% 95%  
399 2% 93%  
400 4% 91%  
401 0.8% 88%  
402 5% 87%  
403 1.2% 82%  
404 3% 81%  
405 7% 77%  
406 4% 70%  
407 0.6% 67%  
408 3% 66%  
409 1.3% 63%  
410 3% 62%  
411 0.8% 59%  
412 0.8% 58%  
413 11% 58% Median
414 0.4% 46%  
415 2% 46%  
416 7% 44%  
417 5% 38%  
418 4% 33%  
419 1.1% 28%  
420 0.8% 27%  
421 0.5% 26%  
422 4% 26%  
423 7% 21%  
424 0.7% 15%  
425 1.2% 14%  
426 1.2% 13%  
427 2% 12%  
428 3% 10%  
429 0.5% 7%  
430 0.3% 6%  
431 1.2% 6%  
432 0.4% 5%  
433 0.5% 4%  
434 1.2% 4%  
435 0.2% 2%  
436 0.2% 2%  
437 0.2% 2%  
438 0.1% 2%  
439 0.4% 2%  
440 0.2% 1.3%  
441 0.1% 1.2%  
442 0.2% 1.1%  
443 0.3% 0.9%  
444 0% 0.6%  
445 0.2% 0.5%  
446 0% 0.4%  
447 0% 0.3%  
448 0.2% 0.3%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
321 0% 100% Last Result
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.7%  
351 0.5% 99.6%  
352 0.1% 99.1%  
353 0.2% 99.0%  
354 1.1% 98.8%  
355 0.2% 98%  
356 1.3% 98%  
357 0.1% 96%  
358 0.7% 96%  
359 0.8% 96%  
360 3% 95%  
361 0.3% 92%  
362 0.4% 92%  
363 1.0% 91%  
364 0.5% 90%  
365 6% 90%  
366 1.0% 84%  
367 2% 83%  
368 1.4% 81%  
369 2% 80%  
370 2% 77%  
371 0.7% 75%  
372 3% 74%  
373 3% 72%  
374 0.1% 69%  
375 8% 69%  
376 0.8% 61%  
377 11% 60% Median
378 0.4% 49%  
379 2% 49%  
380 4% 47%  
381 0.5% 42%  
382 11% 42%  
383 0.4% 31%  
384 0.4% 31%  
385 3% 30%  
386 2% 28%  
387 0.9% 26%  
388 5% 25%  
389 5% 20%  
390 3% 15%  
391 1.3% 11%  
392 0.5% 10%  
393 0.4% 10%  
394 2% 9%  
395 0.4% 7%  
396 0.3% 7%  
397 0.5% 6%  
398 0.6% 6%  
399 0.2% 5%  
400 0.1% 5%  
401 1.5% 5%  
402 1.1% 3%  
403 0.2% 2%  
404 0.3% 2%  
405 0.1% 2%  
406 0.2% 2%  
407 0.1% 2%  
408 0.3% 2%  
409 0.4% 1.3%  
410 0.3% 0.9%  
411 0.1% 0.6%  
412 0% 0.5%  
413 0% 0.5%  
414 0.1% 0.5%  
415 0% 0.3%  
416 0% 0.3%  
417 0.2% 0.3%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0% 99.7%  
343 0% 99.7%  
344 0.2% 99.7%  
345 0.2% 99.5%  
346 0.5% 99.2%  
347 0% 98.7%  
348 0.4% 98.7%  
349 0.8% 98%  
350 0.6% 97%  
351 0.5% 97%  
352 2% 96%  
353 0.5% 95%  
354 0.8% 94%  
355 0.4% 93%  
356 3% 93%  
357 5% 90%  
358 0.8% 85%  
359 2% 84%  
360 0.8% 83%  
361 3% 82%  
362 4% 79%  
363 0.9% 74%  
364 0.4% 73%  
365 1.1% 73%  
366 8% 72%  
367 1.2% 64%  
368 3% 63%  
369 2% 60%  
370 8% 58% Median
371 2% 50%  
372 4% 48%  
373 5% 44%  
374 3% 39%  
375 5% 36%  
376 0.6% 32%  
377 1.1% 31%  
378 3% 30%  
379 2% 27%  
380 0.8% 26%  
381 4% 25%  
382 1.5% 21%  
383 6% 19%  
384 0.6% 13%  
385 3% 13%  
386 3% 10%  
387 0.7% 7%  
388 0.3% 7%  
389 0.4% 6%  
390 0.5% 6%  
391 0.4% 5%  
392 1.1% 5%  
393 0.4% 4%  
394 1.1% 4%  
395 0.1% 2%  
396 0.2% 2%  
397 0.3% 2%  
398 0.2% 2%  
399 0.3% 2%  
400 0.1% 1.4%  
401 0.4% 1.2%  
402 0.1% 0.9%  
403 0.2% 0.8%  
404 0.1% 0.6%  
405 0% 0.5%  
406 0.1% 0.5%  
407 0% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.3%  
409 0% 0.3%  
410 0.2% 0.3%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0% 99.7%  
343 0% 99.7%  
344 0.2% 99.7%  
345 0.2% 99.5%  
346 0.5% 99.2%  
347 0% 98.7%  
348 0.4% 98.7%  
349 0.8% 98%  
350 0.6% 97%  
351 0.5% 97%  
352 2% 96%  
353 0.5% 95%  
354 0.8% 94%  
355 0.4% 93%  
356 3% 93%  
357 5% 90%  
358 0.8% 85%  
359 2% 84%  
360 0.8% 83%  
361 3% 82%  
362 4% 79%  
363 0.9% 74%  
364 0.4% 73%  
365 1.1% 73%  
366 8% 72%  
367 1.2% 64%  
368 3% 63%  
369 2% 60%  
370 8% 58% Median
371 2% 50%  
372 4% 48%  
373 5% 44%  
374 3% 39%  
375 5% 36%  
376 0.6% 32%  
377 1.1% 31%  
378 3% 30%  
379 2% 27%  
380 0.8% 26%  
381 4% 25%  
382 1.5% 21%  
383 6% 19%  
384 0.6% 13%  
385 3% 13%  
386 3% 10%  
387 0.7% 7%  
388 0.3% 7%  
389 0.4% 6%  
390 0.5% 6%  
391 0.4% 5%  
392 1.1% 5%  
393 0.4% 4%  
394 1.1% 4%  
395 0.1% 2%  
396 0.2% 2%  
397 0.3% 2%  
398 0.2% 2%  
399 0.3% 2%  
400 0.1% 1.4%  
401 0.4% 1.2%  
402 0.1% 0.9%  
403 0.2% 0.8%  
404 0.1% 0.6%  
405 0% 0.5%  
406 0.1% 0.5%  
407 0% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.3%  
409 0% 0.3%  
410 0.2% 0.3%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0% 99.7%  
343 0% 99.7%  
344 0.2% 99.7%  
345 0.2% 99.5%  
346 0.5% 99.2%  
347 0% 98.7%  
348 0.4% 98.7%  
349 0.8% 98%  
350 0.6% 97%  
351 0.5% 97%  
352 2% 96%  
353 0.5% 95%  
354 0.8% 94%  
355 0.4% 93%  
356 3% 93%  
357 5% 90%  
358 0.8% 85%  
359 2% 84%  
360 0.8% 83%  
361 3% 82%  
362 4% 79%  
363 0.9% 74%  
364 0.4% 73%  
365 1.1% 73%  
366 8% 72%  
367 1.2% 64%  
368 3% 63%  
369 2% 60%  
370 8% 58% Median
371 2% 50%  
372 4% 48%  
373 5% 44%  
374 3% 39%  
375 5% 36%  
376 0.6% 32%  
377 1.1% 31%  
378 3% 30%  
379 2% 27%  
380 0.8% 26%  
381 4% 25%  
382 1.5% 21%  
383 6% 19%  
384 0.6% 13%  
385 3% 13%  
386 3% 10%  
387 0.7% 7%  
388 0.3% 7%  
389 0.4% 6%  
390 0.5% 6%  
391 0.4% 5%  
392 1.1% 5%  
393 0.4% 4%  
394 1.1% 4%  
395 0.1% 2%  
396 0.2% 2%  
397 0.3% 2%  
398 0.2% 2%  
399 0.3% 2%  
400 0.1% 1.4%  
401 0.4% 1.2%  
402 0.1% 0.9%  
403 0.2% 0.8%  
404 0.1% 0.6%  
405 0% 0.5%  
406 0.1% 0.5%  
407 0% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.3%  
409 0% 0.3%  
410 0.2% 0.3%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0.2% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.7%  
224 0% 99.7%  
225 0% 99.7%  
226 0.1% 99.7%  
227 0% 99.5%  
228 0.1% 99.5%  
229 0.2% 99.4%  
230 0.1% 99.2%  
231 0.4% 99.1%  
232 0.1% 98.8%  
233 0.3% 98.6%  
234 0.2% 98%  
235 0.3% 98%  
236 0.2% 98%  
237 0.1% 98%  
238 1.1% 98%  
239 0.4% 96%  
240 1.1% 96%  
241 0.4% 95%  
242 0.5% 95%  
243 0.4% 94%  
244 0.3% 94%  
245 0.7% 93%  
246 3% 93%  
247 3% 90%  
248 0.6% 87%  
249 6% 87%  
250 1.5% 81%  
251 4% 79%  
252 0.8% 75%  
253 2% 74%  
254 3% 73%  
255 1.1% 70%  
256 0.6% 69%  
257 5% 68%  
258 3% 64%  
259 5% 61%  
260 4% 56%  
261 2% 52%  
262 8% 50% Median
263 2% 42%  
264 3% 40%  
265 1.2% 37%  
266 8% 36%  
267 1.1% 28%  
268 0.4% 27%  
269 0.9% 27%  
270 4% 26%  
271 3% 21%  
272 0.8% 18%  
273 2% 17%  
274 0.8% 16%  
275 5% 15%  
276 3% 10%  
277 0.4% 7%  
278 0.8% 7%  
279 0.5% 6%  
280 2% 5%  
281 0.5% 4%  
282 0.6% 3%  
283 0.8% 3%  
284 0.4% 2%  
285 0% 1.3%  
286 0.5% 1.3%  
287 0.2% 0.8%  
288 0.2% 0.5%  
289 0% 0.3%  
290 0% 0.3%  
291 0% 0.3%  
292 0% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0.1% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0.2% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.7%  
223 0% 99.7%  
224 0% 99.7%  
225 0.1% 99.7%  
226 0% 99.5%  
227 0.1% 99.5%  
228 0.2% 99.4%  
229 0.1% 99.2%  
230 0.4% 99.1%  
231 0.1% 98.8%  
232 0.3% 98.6%  
233 0.2% 98%  
234 0.3% 98%  
235 0.2% 98%  
236 0.1% 98%  
237 1.1% 98%  
238 0.4% 96%  
239 1.1% 96%  
240 0.4% 95%  
241 0.5% 95%  
242 0.4% 94%  
243 0.3% 94%  
244 0.7% 93%  
245 3% 93%  
246 3% 90%  
247 0.6% 87%  
248 6% 87%  
249 1.5% 81%  
250 4% 79%  
251 0.8% 75%  
252 2% 74%  
253 3% 73%  
254 1.1% 70%  
255 0.6% 69%  
256 5% 68%  
257 3% 64%  
258 5% 61%  
259 4% 56%  
260 2% 52%  
261 8% 50% Median
262 2% 42%  
263 3% 40%  
264 1.2% 37%  
265 8% 36%  
266 1.1% 28%  
267 0.4% 27%  
268 0.9% 27%  
269 4% 26%  
270 3% 21%  
271 0.8% 18%  
272 2% 17%  
273 0.8% 16%  
274 5% 15%  
275 3% 10%  
276 0.4% 7%  
277 0.8% 7%  
278 0.5% 6%  
279 2% 5%  
280 0.5% 4%  
281 0.6% 3%  
282 0.8% 3%  
283 0.4% 2%  
284 0% 1.3%  
285 0.5% 1.3%  
286 0.2% 0.8%  
287 0.2% 0.5%  
288 0% 0.3%  
289 0% 0.3%  
290 0% 0.3%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.2%  
293 0.1% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0.2% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.7%  
216 0% 99.7%  
217 0.1% 99.7%  
218 0% 99.5%  
219 0% 99.5%  
220 0.1% 99.5%  
221 0.3% 99.4%  
222 0.4% 99.1%  
223 0.3% 98.7%  
224 0.1% 98%  
225 0.2% 98%  
226 0.1% 98%  
227 0.3% 98%  
228 0.2% 98%  
229 1.1% 98%  
230 1.5% 97%  
231 0.1% 95%  
232 0.2% 95%  
233 0.6% 95%  
234 0.5% 94%  
235 0.3% 94%  
236 0.4% 93%  
237 2% 93%  
238 0.4% 91%  
239 0.5% 90%  
240 1.3% 90%  
241 3% 89%  
242 5% 85%  
243 5% 80%  
244 0.9% 75%  
245 2% 74%  
246 3% 72%  
247 0.4% 70%  
248 0.4% 69%  
249 11% 69%  
250 0.5% 58%  
251 4% 58%  
252 2% 53%  
253 0.4% 51%  
254 11% 51% Median
255 0.8% 40%  
256 8% 39%  
257 0.1% 31%  
258 3% 31%  
259 3% 28%  
260 0.7% 26%  
261 2% 25%  
262 2% 23%  
263 1.4% 20%  
264 2% 19%  
265 1.0% 17%  
266 6% 16%  
267 0.5% 10%  
268 1.0% 10%  
269 0.4% 9%  
270 0.3% 8%  
271 3% 8%  
272 0.8% 5%  
273 0.7% 4%  
274 0.1% 4%  
275 1.3% 4%  
276 0.2% 2%  
277 1.1% 2%  
278 0.2% 1.2%  
279 0.1% 1.0%  
280 0.5% 0.9%  
281 0.1% 0.4%  
282 0.1% 0.3%  
283 0% 0.2%  
284 0.1% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0.2% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.7%  
185 0% 99.7%  
186 0.2% 99.6%  
187 0% 99.5%  
188 0.3% 99.4%  
189 0.2% 99.1%  
190 0.1% 98.9%  
191 0.2% 98.8%  
192 0.4% 98.7%  
193 0.1% 98%  
194 0.2% 98%  
195 0.2% 98%  
196 0.2% 98%  
197 1.2% 98%  
198 0.5% 96%  
199 0.4% 96%  
200 1.2% 95%  
201 0.3% 94%  
202 0.5% 94%  
203 3% 93%  
204 2% 90%  
205 1.2% 88%  
206 1.2% 87%  
207 0.7% 86%  
208 7% 85%  
209 4% 79%  
210 0.5% 74%  
211 0.8% 74%  
212 1.1% 73%  
213 4% 72%  
214 5% 67%  
215 7% 62%  
216 2% 56%  
217 0.4% 54%  
218 11% 54% Median
219 0.8% 42%  
220 0.8% 42%  
221 3% 41%  
222 1.3% 38%  
223 3% 37%  
224 0.6% 34%  
225 4% 33%  
226 7% 30%  
227 3% 23%  
228 1.2% 19%  
229 5% 18%  
230 0.8% 13%  
231 4% 12%  
232 2% 9%  
233 2% 7%  
234 0.7% 5%  
235 0.4% 5%  
236 2% 4%  
237 0.8% 2%  
238 0.4% 2%  
239 0.3% 1.3%  
240 0.4% 0.9%  
241 0.2% 0.6%  
242 0% 0.4%  
243 0.1% 0.3%  
244 0% 0.3%  
245 0% 0.3%  
246 0.1% 0.2%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
176 0% 100%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0.2% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.7%  
180 0.1% 99.7%  
181 0.1% 99.6%  
182 0% 99.6%  
183 0% 99.5%  
184 0.1% 99.5%  
185 0.5% 99.4%  
186 0.1% 98.9%  
187 0.6% 98.9%  
188 0.3% 98%  
189 0.2% 98%  
190 0.6% 98%  
191 0.3% 97%  
192 0.9% 97%  
193 0.4% 96%  
194 0.7% 96%  
195 0.5% 95%  
196 1.3% 94%  
197 2% 93%  
198 7% 91%  
199 0.9% 84%  
200 0.6% 83%  
201 3% 83%  
202 8% 80%  
203 1.4% 72%  
204 0.9% 71%  
205 0.4% 70%  
206 4% 70%  
207 3% 65%  
208 5% 62%  
209 4% 57%  
210 0.2% 53%  
211 10% 53% Median
212 0.4% 43%  
213 1.0% 42%  
214 0.7% 41%  
215 7% 41%  
216 1.2% 33%  
217 0.7% 32%  
218 3% 31%  
219 3% 28%  
220 2% 25%  
221 3% 23%  
222 0.9% 20%  
223 2% 19%  
224 5% 17%  
225 0.8% 13%  
226 5% 12%  
227 0.3% 7%  
228 2% 6%  
229 0.8% 5%  
230 0.5% 4%  
231 1.2% 4%  
232 0.5% 2%  
233 0.6% 2%  
234 0.3% 1.3%  
235 0.4% 1.0%  
236 0.2% 0.6%  
237 0.1% 0.4%  
238 0% 0.3%  
239 0% 0.3%  
240 0.1% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0.2% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.7%  
178 0.1% 99.7%  
179 0.1% 99.6%  
180 0% 99.5%  
181 0.4% 99.4%  
182 0.2% 99.1%  
183 0.2% 98.9%  
184 0.4% 98.7%  
185 0.3% 98%  
186 0.3% 98%  
187 0.2% 98%  
188 0.2% 98%  
189 0.6% 97%  
190 2% 97%  
191 0.4% 95%  
192 0.5% 95%  
193 0.4% 94%  
194 0.6% 94%  
195 2% 93%  
196 0.5% 91%  
197 0.4% 91%  
198 0.5% 90%  
199 3% 90%  
200 1.1% 87%  
201 4% 86%  
202 4% 82%  
203 4% 79%  
204 1.0% 74%  
205 5% 73%  
206 3% 68%  
207 9% 65%  
208 0.4% 56%  
209 0.1% 55%  
210 4% 55%  
211 9% 51% Median
212 0.2% 42%  
213 2% 42%  
214 4% 41%  
215 4% 37%  
216 1.2% 33%  
217 8% 32%  
218 0.7% 23%  
219 3% 22%  
220 1.1% 20%  
221 5% 19%  
222 0.7% 14%  
223 0.7% 13%  
224 1.0% 13%  
225 1.0% 12%  
226 0.2% 11%  
227 3% 10%  
228 2% 7%  
229 1.3% 5%  
230 0.7% 3%  
231 1.0% 3%  
232 0.8% 2%  
233 0.2% 0.8%  
234 0.1% 0.6%  
235 0.2% 0.5%  
236 0% 0.3%  
237 0.1% 0.3%  
238 0% 0.2%  
239 0% 0.2%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0.2% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.7%  
173 0% 99.7%  
174 0.1% 99.6%  
175 0.1% 99.5%  
176 0.1% 99.4%  
177 0.4% 99.4%  
178 0.2% 99.0%  
179 0.1% 98.8%  
180 0.6% 98.8%  
181 0.4% 98%  
182 0.2% 98%  
183 0.5% 98%  
184 0.3% 97%  
185 0.8% 97%  
186 0.4% 96%  
187 1.0% 96%  
188 1.0% 95%  
189 0.8% 93%  
190 2% 93%  
191 0.6% 91%  
192 3% 90%  
193 5% 88%  
194 7% 83%  
195 4% 76%  
196 0.5% 72%  
197 0.7% 72%  
198 2% 71%  
199 10% 70%  
200 0.5% 60%  
201 5% 59%  
202 0.7% 54%  
203 0.7% 54%  
204 9% 53% Median
205 2% 44%  
206 7% 42%  
207 2% 35%  
208 1.1% 34%  
209 2% 33%  
210 1.4% 31%  
211 3% 29%  
212 2% 26%  
213 2% 24%  
214 1.4% 22%  
215 2% 20%  
216 3% 18%  
217 0.6% 15%  
218 5% 15%  
219 0.8% 10%  
220 3% 9%  
221 0.7% 6%  
222 0.6% 5%  
223 0.1% 5%  
224 2% 5%  
225 0.4% 3%  
226 0.8% 2%  
227 0.3% 1.4%  
228 0.2% 1.1%  
229 0.1% 0.9%  
230 0.3% 0.8%  
231 0.1% 0.4%  
232 0.2% 0.4%  
233 0% 0.2%  
234 0% 0.2%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0.2% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.7%  
173 0% 99.7%  
174 0.1% 99.6%  
175 0.1% 99.5%  
176 0.1% 99.4%  
177 0.4% 99.4%  
178 0.2% 99.0%  
179 0.1% 98.8%  
180 0.6% 98.8%  
181 0.4% 98%  
182 0.2% 98%  
183 0.5% 98%  
184 0.3% 97%  
185 0.8% 97%  
186 0.4% 96%  
187 1.0% 96%  
188 1.0% 95%  
189 0.8% 93%  
190 2% 93%  
191 0.6% 91%  
192 3% 90%  
193 5% 88%  
194 7% 83%  
195 4% 76%  
196 0.5% 72%  
197 0.7% 72%  
198 2% 71%  
199 10% 70%  
200 0.5% 60%  
201 5% 59%  
202 0.7% 54%  
203 0.7% 54%  
204 9% 53% Median
205 2% 44%  
206 7% 42%  
207 2% 35%  
208 1.1% 34%  
209 2% 33%  
210 1.4% 31%  
211 3% 29%  
212 2% 26%  
213 2% 24%  
214 1.4% 22%  
215 2% 20%  
216 3% 18%  
217 0.6% 15%  
218 5% 15%  
219 0.8% 10%  
220 3% 9%  
221 0.7% 6%  
222 0.6% 5%  
223 0.1% 5%  
224 2% 5%  
225 0.4% 3%  
226 0.8% 2%  
227 0.3% 1.4%  
228 0.2% 1.1%  
229 0.1% 0.9%  
230 0.3% 0.8%  
231 0.1% 0.4%  
232 0.2% 0.4%  
233 0% 0.2%  
234 0% 0.2%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0% 100%  
140 0.3% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.7%  
142 0% 99.6%  
143 0% 99.6%  
144 0% 99.5%  
145 0.1% 99.5%  
146 0.1% 99.4%  
147 1.0% 99.4%  
148 0.3% 98%  
149 0.4% 98%  
150 0.7% 98%  
151 0.5% 97%  
152 1.1% 97%  
153 0.1% 95%  
154 0.9% 95%  
155 0.6% 94%  
156 3% 94%  
157 2% 90%  
158 10% 89%  
159 3% 78%  
160 0.3% 76%  
161 0.3% 76%  
162 0.4% 75%  
163 0.8% 75%  
164 7% 74%  
165 12% 67%  
166 0.5% 55%  
167 0.3% 55%  
168 11% 54% Median
169 0.2% 43%  
170 0.6% 43%  
171 1.1% 42%  
172 1.4% 41%  
173 0.5% 40%  
174 2% 39%  
175 4% 37%  
176 8% 33%  
177 0.8% 25%  
178 0.8% 24%  
179 0.9% 24%  
180 5% 23%  
181 7% 18%  
182 4% 11%  
183 0.7% 7%  
184 0.4% 6%  
185 2% 6%  
186 1.2% 4%  
187 0.9% 3%  
188 0.9% 2%  
189 0.5% 1.0%  
190 0.1% 0.5%  
191 0% 0.4%  
192 0% 0.4%  
193 0.1% 0.3%  
194 0% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0.3% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.7%  
135 0% 99.6%  
136 0% 99.6%  
137 0.1% 99.5%  
138 0.3% 99.5%  
139 0.4% 99.2%  
140 0.7% 98.9%  
141 0.4% 98%  
142 0.6% 98%  
143 0.4% 97%  
144 0.3% 97%  
145 0.8% 96%  
146 0.5% 96%  
147 0.9% 95%  
148 2% 94%  
149 1.1% 92%  
150 3% 91%  
151 4% 88%  
152 4% 84%  
153 5% 81%  
154 1.0% 76%  
155 0.2% 75%  
156 4% 74%  
157 13% 71%  
158 0.1% 58%  
159 2% 58%  
160 3% 55%  
161 9% 53% Median
162 1.0% 44%  
163 0.4% 43%  
164 1.0% 42%  
165 3% 41%  
166 0.3% 38%  
167 10% 38%  
168 2% 28%  
169 0.3% 26%  
170 1.1% 26%  
171 1.3% 24%  
172 3% 23%  
173 6% 20%  
174 2% 14%  
175 0.6% 12%  
176 3% 12%  
177 2% 8%  
178 2% 6%  
179 0.7% 4%  
180 1.4% 3%  
181 0.4% 2%  
182 0.8% 2%  
183 0.2% 0.7%  
184 0.2% 0.5%  
185 0.1% 0.4%  
186 0% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0.3% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.7%  
135 0% 99.6%  
136 0% 99.6%  
137 0.1% 99.5%  
138 0.3% 99.5%  
139 0.4% 99.2%  
140 0.7% 98.9%  
141 0.4% 98%  
142 0.6% 98%  
143 0.4% 97%  
144 0.3% 97%  
145 0.8% 96%  
146 0.5% 96%  
147 0.9% 95%  
148 2% 94%  
149 1.1% 92%  
150 3% 91%  
151 4% 88%  
152 4% 84%  
153 5% 81%  
154 1.0% 76%  
155 0.2% 75%  
156 4% 74%  
157 13% 71%  
158 0.1% 58%  
159 2% 58%  
160 3% 55%  
161 9% 53% Median
162 1.0% 44%  
163 0.4% 43%  
164 1.0% 42%  
165 3% 41%  
166 0.3% 38%  
167 10% 38%  
168 2% 28%  
169 0.3% 26%  
170 1.1% 26%  
171 1.3% 24%  
172 3% 23%  
173 6% 20%  
174 2% 14%  
175 0.6% 12%  
176 3% 12%  
177 2% 8%  
178 2% 6%  
179 0.7% 4%  
180 1.4% 3%  
181 0.4% 2%  
182 0.8% 2%  
183 0.2% 0.7%  
184 0.2% 0.5%  
185 0.1% 0.4%  
186 0% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

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