Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times and Sky News, 5–6 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 35.8% 34.3–37.3% 33.9–37.8% 33.5–38.1% 32.8–38.9%
Labour Party 41.0% 24.9% 23.6–26.3% 23.2–26.7% 22.9–27.0% 22.3–27.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 16.9% 15.8–18.2% 15.5–18.5% 15.2–18.8% 14.7–19.4%
Brexit Party 0.0% 10.9% 10.0–12.0% 9.7–12.3% 9.5–12.5% 9.1–13.0%
Green Party 1.7% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.1% 3.7–6.5%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 4.0% 3.4–4.6% 3.2–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.4%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.8%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 338 313–355 312–365 305–366 296–374
Labour Party 262 179 165–198 158–202 158–209 147–214
Liberal Democrats 12 54 48–59 47–60 46–62 42–66
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0–2
Green Party 1 2 2–4 1–4 1–4 1–4
Scottish National Party 35 51 50–54 46–54 43–54 39–54
Plaid Cymru 4 7 4–11 4–11 4–11 4–12
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0.3% 99.6%  
297 0.1% 99.3%  
298 0% 99.3%  
299 0.1% 99.3%  
300 0.1% 99.2%  
301 0.5% 99.1%  
302 0.2% 98.6%  
303 0.2% 98%  
304 0.3% 98%  
305 0.5% 98%  
306 0.1% 97%  
307 0.9% 97%  
308 0.1% 96%  
309 0.1% 96%  
310 0.2% 96%  
311 0.2% 96%  
312 1.3% 96%  
313 5% 95%  
314 0.3% 90%  
315 0.2% 90%  
316 0.5% 89%  
317 1.0% 89% Last Result
318 0.1% 88%  
319 9% 88%  
320 0.2% 79%  
321 2% 78%  
322 0.8% 76%  
323 0.6% 75%  
324 0.4% 75%  
325 0.7% 74%  
326 3% 74% Majority
327 0.5% 71%  
328 2% 71%  
329 2% 69%  
330 0.4% 67%  
331 2% 67%  
332 1.5% 65%  
333 2% 63%  
334 6% 61%  
335 1.0% 56%  
336 3% 55%  
337 0.9% 52%  
338 2% 51% Median
339 0.4% 49%  
340 0.8% 48%  
341 2% 48%  
342 2% 45%  
343 2% 43%  
344 2% 41%  
345 17% 38%  
346 1.5% 22%  
347 1.5% 20%  
348 1.0% 19%  
349 1.4% 18%  
350 0.7% 16%  
351 2% 16%  
352 0.5% 13%  
353 1.0% 13%  
354 0.3% 12%  
355 4% 12%  
356 0.4% 8%  
357 0.5% 7%  
358 0.3% 7%  
359 0.3% 7%  
360 0.2% 6%  
361 0.3% 6%  
362 0.1% 6%  
363 0.5% 6%  
364 0.2% 5%  
365 0.2% 5%  
366 3% 5%  
367 0.1% 2%  
368 0.3% 2%  
369 0% 1.3%  
370 0.1% 1.3%  
371 0.5% 1.2%  
372 0.1% 0.7%  
373 0% 0.6%  
374 0.2% 0.6%  
375 0% 0.4%  
376 0% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0.1% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.8%  
144 0% 99.8%  
145 0% 99.8%  
146 0.2% 99.7%  
147 0.1% 99.5%  
148 0% 99.4%  
149 0.1% 99.4%  
150 0.1% 99.3%  
151 0.1% 99.3%  
152 0.2% 99.2%  
153 0.7% 99.0%  
154 0.1% 98%  
155 0% 98%  
156 0.1% 98%  
157 0.1% 98%  
158 4% 98%  
159 0% 94%  
160 0.2% 94%  
161 0.1% 94%  
162 0.3% 94%  
163 0.3% 94%  
164 0.5% 93%  
165 3% 93%  
166 0.8% 89%  
167 0.6% 89%  
168 2% 88%  
169 1.1% 86%  
170 3% 85%  
171 0.5% 83%  
172 8% 82%  
173 0.6% 74%  
174 2% 73%  
175 3% 72%  
176 3% 69%  
177 10% 66%  
178 3% 56%  
179 7% 53% Median
180 2% 46%  
181 1.2% 43%  
182 3% 42%  
183 1.1% 39%  
184 3% 38%  
185 0.3% 35%  
186 0.9% 35%  
187 2% 34%  
188 2% 32%  
189 0.7% 30%  
190 9% 29%  
191 0.1% 20%  
192 0.4% 20%  
193 2% 20%  
194 1.1% 18%  
195 0.7% 17%  
196 5% 16%  
197 0.7% 11%  
198 2% 11%  
199 2% 9%  
200 1.4% 7%  
201 0.4% 6%  
202 0.3% 5%  
203 0.8% 5%  
204 0.2% 4%  
205 0.9% 4%  
206 0.3% 3%  
207 0.1% 3%  
208 0.1% 3%  
209 0.6% 3%  
210 0.3% 2%  
211 0.1% 2%  
212 0% 1.5%  
213 0.5% 1.5%  
214 0.5% 1.0%  
215 0% 0.5%  
216 0.1% 0.4%  
217 0% 0.4%  
218 0.1% 0.4%  
219 0.1% 0.3%  
220 0% 0.2%  
221 0% 0.2%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 0.3% 99.4%  
44 0.1% 99.1%  
45 0.4% 99.0%  
46 2% 98.5%  
47 3% 97%  
48 19% 93%  
49 17% 74%  
50 3% 57%  
51 0.4% 54%  
52 3% 54%  
53 0.6% 51%  
54 2% 50% Median
55 4% 48%  
56 8% 45%  
57 8% 37%  
58 5% 29%  
59 17% 24%  
60 3% 7%  
61 1.1% 4%  
62 0.6% 3%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0.2% 0.9%  
65 0.1% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.6%  
67 0.2% 0.5%  
68 0.3% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 2%  
2 1.0% 1.2%  
3 0.1% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 6% 100% Last Result
2 48% 94% Median
3 17% 46%  
4 29% 30%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 1.2% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 98.7%  
41 0.1% 98%  
42 0.1% 98%  
43 1.4% 98%  
44 0.1% 97%  
45 0.9% 97%  
46 2% 96%  
47 0.4% 94%  
48 2% 93%  
49 1.4% 92%  
50 19% 90%  
51 23% 71% Median
52 0.8% 48%  
53 34% 47%  
54 13% 13%  
55 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 15% 99.8% Last Result
5 10% 85%  
6 2% 75%  
7 34% 73% Median
8 6% 39%  
9 2% 32%  
10 19% 30%  
11 10% 11%  
12 1.5% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.4%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 396 100% 373–416 372–423 364–423 353–433
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 389 100% 366–406 365–416 358–416 349–424
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 391 100% 372–404 369–415 364–415 355–422
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 391 100% 372–404 369–415 364–415 355–422
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 346 88% 320–365 320–373 311–373 301–382
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 338 74% 313–355 312–365 305–366 296–374
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 338 74% 313–355 312–365 305–366 296–374
Conservative Party 317 338 74% 313–355 312–365 305–366 296–374
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 314 294 3% 277–319 267–320 266–327 258–336
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 291 2% 275–315 265–318 264–325 255–334
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 283 0.6% 265–308 257–310 257–318 247–328
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 240 0% 224–262 214–265 214–272 205–281
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 238 0% 226–256 215–261 215–266 207–273
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 232 0% 214–255 207–257 207–266 197–277
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 232 0% 214–255 207–257 207–266 197–277
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 230 0% 216–249 208–254 208–260 198–267
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 187 0% 175–203 165–208 165–213 157–222
Labour Party – Change UK 262 179 0% 165–198 158–202 158–209 147–214
Labour Party 262 179 0% 165–198 158–202 158–209 147–214

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0.1% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.8%  
353 0.3% 99.8%  
354 0% 99.4%  
355 0.1% 99.4%  
356 0.1% 99.3% Last Result
357 0.1% 99.2%  
358 0.5% 99.2%  
359 0% 98.7%  
360 0.1% 98.6%  
361 0.2% 98.6%  
362 0.5% 98%  
363 0.2% 98%  
364 0.3% 98%  
365 0.1% 97%  
366 0.2% 97%  
367 0.2% 97%  
368 1.0% 97%  
369 0.2% 96%  
370 0.1% 96%  
371 0.2% 96%  
372 0.7% 95%  
373 6% 95%  
374 0.3% 89%  
375 0.2% 89%  
376 0.6% 88%  
377 0.6% 88%  
378 0.3% 87%  
379 10% 87%  
380 0.4% 77%  
381 0.3% 77%  
382 2% 76%  
383 2% 74%  
384 0.6% 72%  
385 3% 72%  
386 0.3% 69%  
387 0.9% 69%  
388 1.1% 68%  
389 0.7% 67%  
390 0.4% 66%  
391 5% 66%  
392 3% 61%  
393 2% 58%  
394 5% 57%  
395 0.5% 51%  
396 0.7% 51% Median
397 1.0% 50%  
398 0.8% 49%  
399 1.2% 48%  
400 2% 47%  
401 8% 45%  
402 2% 37%  
403 2% 35%  
404 1.5% 32%  
405 8% 31%  
406 3% 22%  
407 2% 19%  
408 0.8% 17%  
409 0.3% 16%  
410 1.3% 16%  
411 0.6% 15%  
412 2% 14%  
413 0.6% 12%  
414 0.7% 11%  
415 0.4% 10%  
416 3% 10%  
417 0.2% 7%  
418 0.3% 6%  
419 0.2% 6%  
420 0.2% 6%  
421 0.1% 6%  
422 0.2% 6%  
423 3% 5%  
424 0.5% 2%  
425 0.1% 2%  
426 0.2% 2%  
427 0.1% 2%  
428 0.5% 2%  
429 0.3% 1.0%  
430 0% 0.7%  
431 0.1% 0.7%  
432 0% 0.6%  
433 0% 0.5%  
434 0.1% 0.5%  
435 0.1% 0.4%  
436 0.1% 0.3%  
437 0% 0.2%  
438 0% 0.2%  
439 0.1% 0.2%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.8%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.7%  
349 0.3% 99.6%  
350 0% 99.2%  
351 0% 99.2%  
352 0.1% 99.2% Last Result
353 0.1% 99.1%  
354 0.5% 99.1%  
355 0.2% 98.6%  
356 0.1% 98%  
357 0.5% 98%  
358 0.5% 98%  
359 0.1% 97%  
360 0.9% 97%  
361 0.1% 96%  
362 0.2% 96%  
363 0.3% 96%  
364 0.2% 96%  
365 2% 95%  
366 5% 94%  
367 0.1% 89%  
368 1.1% 89%  
369 0.4% 88%  
370 0.5% 87%  
371 0.4% 87%  
372 9% 87%  
373 0.2% 77%  
374 3% 77%  
375 0.6% 75%  
376 2% 74%  
377 0.6% 72%  
378 0.7% 72%  
379 2% 71%  
380 2% 69%  
381 2% 67%  
382 0.6% 65%  
383 0.4% 65%  
384 1.3% 64%  
385 0.8% 63%  
386 2% 62%  
387 6% 60%  
388 4% 54%  
389 0.6% 50% Median
390 1.4% 50%  
391 1.0% 48%  
392 1.5% 47%  
393 2% 46%  
394 1.1% 44%  
395 12% 43%  
396 11% 31%  
397 2% 21%  
398 0.4% 19%  
399 1.1% 18%  
400 1.4% 17%  
401 1.1% 16%  
402 2% 15%  
403 0.8% 12%  
404 0.4% 12%  
405 0.3% 11%  
406 4% 11%  
407 0.3% 7%  
408 0.2% 7%  
409 0.4% 7%  
410 0.4% 6%  
411 0.2% 6%  
412 0% 6%  
413 0.1% 6%  
414 0.2% 6%  
415 0.2% 6%  
416 3% 5%  
417 0.6% 2%  
418 0% 2%  
419 0.1% 2%  
420 0% 1.5%  
421 0.5% 1.4%  
422 0.3% 0.9%  
423 0% 0.6%  
424 0.2% 0.6%  
425 0% 0.4%  
426 0.1% 0.4%  
427 0% 0.3%  
428 0.1% 0.3%  
429 0.1% 0.2%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.8%  
353 0.2% 99.7%  
354 0% 99.6%  
355 0.1% 99.5%  
356 0% 99.5%  
357 0% 99.5%  
358 0.1% 99.4%  
359 0.5% 99.3%  
360 0.5% 98.7%  
361 0.2% 98%  
362 0.3% 98%  
363 0% 98%  
364 2% 98%  
365 0.1% 96%  
366 0.1% 96%  
367 0.1% 96%  
368 0.5% 96%  
369 1.4% 95%  
370 0.7% 94%  
371 0.4% 93%  
372 5% 93%  
373 0.4% 88%  
374 1.1% 88%  
375 3% 87%  
376 0.3% 84%  
377 0.2% 84%  
378 11% 83%  
379 0.4% 73%  
380 2% 72%  
381 0.3% 70%  
382 1.4% 70%  
383 0.6% 68%  
384 0.7% 68%  
385 0.3% 67%  
386 5% 67%  
387 2% 62%  
388 2% 61%  
389 0.4% 58%  
390 4% 58%  
391 6% 54%  
392 4% 48% Median
393 10% 45%  
394 3% 35%  
395 2% 32%  
396 2% 30%  
397 2% 28%  
398 2% 27%  
399 3% 25%  
400 0.9% 22%  
401 7% 21%  
402 0.5% 14%  
403 0.4% 14%  
404 4% 13%  
405 0.8% 9%  
406 0.5% 8%  
407 0.6% 8%  
408 0.5% 7%  
409 0.1% 7%  
410 0.2% 7%  
411 0.6% 7%  
412 0.1% 6%  
413 0.3% 6%  
414 0.2% 6%  
415 3% 5%  
416 0.3% 2%  
417 0.1% 2%  
418 0% 1.5%  
419 0.1% 1.4%  
420 0.6% 1.3%  
421 0.1% 0.7%  
422 0.1% 0.6%  
423 0.1% 0.5%  
424 0.1% 0.4%  
425 0% 0.3%  
426 0% 0.3%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.8%  
353 0.2% 99.7%  
354 0% 99.6%  
355 0.1% 99.5%  
356 0% 99.5%  
357 0% 99.5%  
358 0.1% 99.4%  
359 0.5% 99.3%  
360 0.5% 98.7%  
361 0.2% 98%  
362 0.3% 98%  
363 0% 98%  
364 2% 98%  
365 0.1% 96%  
366 0.1% 96%  
367 0.1% 96%  
368 0.5% 96%  
369 1.4% 95%  
370 0.7% 94%  
371 0.4% 93%  
372 5% 93%  
373 0.4% 88%  
374 1.1% 88%  
375 3% 87%  
376 0.3% 84%  
377 0.2% 84%  
378 11% 83%  
379 0.4% 73%  
380 2% 72%  
381 0.3% 70%  
382 1.4% 70%  
383 0.6% 68%  
384 0.7% 68%  
385 0.3% 67%  
386 5% 67%  
387 2% 62%  
388 2% 61%  
389 0.4% 58%  
390 4% 58%  
391 6% 54%  
392 4% 48% Median
393 10% 45%  
394 3% 35%  
395 2% 32%  
396 2% 30%  
397 2% 28%  
398 2% 27%  
399 3% 25%  
400 0.9% 22%  
401 7% 21%  
402 0.5% 14%  
403 0.4% 14%  
404 4% 13%  
405 0.8% 9%  
406 0.5% 8%  
407 0.6% 8%  
408 0.5% 7%  
409 0.1% 7%  
410 0.2% 7%  
411 0.6% 7%  
412 0.1% 6%  
413 0.3% 6%  
414 0.2% 6%  
415 3% 5%  
416 0.3% 2%  
417 0.1% 2%  
418 0% 1.5%  
419 0.1% 1.4%  
420 0.6% 1.3%  
421 0.1% 0.7%  
422 0.1% 0.6%  
423 0.1% 0.5%  
424 0.1% 0.4%  
425 0% 0.3%  
426 0% 0.3%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0.3% 99.8%  
301 0% 99.5%  
302 0% 99.5%  
303 0.2% 99.4%  
304 0.1% 99.3%  
305 0.5% 99.2%  
306 0% 98.7%  
307 0.1% 98.7%  
308 0.1% 98.6%  
309 0.5% 98.5%  
310 0.2% 98%  
311 0.3% 98%  
312 0.1% 97%  
313 0.1% 97%  
314 0.1% 97%  
315 1.1% 97%  
316 0.1% 96%  
317 0.1% 96%  
318 0.3% 96%  
319 0.2% 96%  
320 6% 95%  
321 0.4% 90% Last Result
322 0.1% 89%  
323 0.2% 89%  
324 0.3% 89%  
325 0.8% 89%  
326 10% 88% Majority
327 0.7% 78%  
328 0.1% 78%  
329 1.1% 78%  
330 2% 77%  
331 0.5% 75%  
332 3% 74%  
333 0.6% 71%  
334 0.4% 70%  
335 0.9% 70%  
336 0.3% 69%  
337 2% 69%  
338 5% 67%  
339 0.6% 62%  
340 4% 62%  
341 3% 58%  
342 0.6% 55%  
343 3% 55%  
344 0.5% 51%  
345 0.5% 51% Median
346 2% 50%  
347 1.0% 48%  
348 2% 47%  
349 1.0% 46%  
350 7% 45%  
351 2% 38%  
352 3% 35%  
353 2% 32%  
354 1.4% 30%  
355 8% 29%  
356 2% 20%  
357 1.2% 18%  
358 0.8% 17%  
359 0.3% 16%  
360 0.9% 16%  
361 2% 15%  
362 0.6% 13%  
363 0.9% 12%  
364 0.6% 11%  
365 4% 11%  
366 0.3% 7%  
367 0.1% 7%  
368 0.4% 7%  
369 0.2% 6%  
370 0.5% 6%  
371 0.2% 5%  
372 0.2% 5%  
373 3% 5%  
374 0.1% 2%  
375 0.4% 2%  
376 0% 1.3%  
377 0.1% 1.3%  
378 0.4% 1.3%  
379 0% 0.8%  
380 0.1% 0.8%  
381 0.1% 0.7%  
382 0.1% 0.6%  
383 0% 0.5%  
384 0.1% 0.4%  
385 0.1% 0.4%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0.1% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0.3% 99.6%  
297 0% 99.3%  
298 0% 99.3%  
299 0.1% 99.3%  
300 0% 99.2%  
301 0.5% 99.1%  
302 0.2% 98.7%  
303 0.2% 98%  
304 0.3% 98%  
305 0.5% 98%  
306 0.1% 97%  
307 0.9% 97%  
308 0.1% 96%  
309 0.1% 96%  
310 0.2% 96%  
311 0.2% 96%  
312 1.2% 96%  
313 5% 95%  
314 0.3% 90%  
315 0.2% 90%  
316 0.5% 89%  
317 1.0% 89% Last Result
318 0.1% 88%  
319 9% 88%  
320 0.2% 79%  
321 2% 79%  
322 0.8% 76%  
323 0.6% 75%  
324 0.4% 75%  
325 0.6% 74%  
326 3% 74% Majority
327 0.5% 71%  
328 2% 71%  
329 2% 69%  
330 0.3% 67%  
331 2% 67%  
332 2% 65%  
333 2% 63%  
334 6% 61%  
335 1.0% 56%  
336 3% 55%  
337 0.8% 52%  
338 2% 51% Median
339 0.5% 49%  
340 0.9% 49%  
341 2% 48%  
342 2% 45%  
343 2% 43%  
344 2% 41%  
345 17% 38%  
346 1.4% 22%  
347 1.5% 20%  
348 1.0% 19%  
349 1.4% 18%  
350 0.8% 17%  
351 2% 16%  
352 0.5% 13%  
353 0.9% 13%  
354 0.3% 12%  
355 4% 12%  
356 0.4% 8%  
357 0.5% 7%  
358 0.3% 7%  
359 0.3% 7%  
360 0.2% 6%  
361 0.3% 6%  
362 0.1% 6%  
363 0.5% 6%  
364 0.2% 5%  
365 0.2% 5%  
366 3% 5%  
367 0.1% 2%  
368 0.3% 2%  
369 0% 1.3%  
370 0.1% 1.3%  
371 0.5% 1.2%  
372 0.1% 0.7%  
373 0% 0.6%  
374 0.2% 0.6%  
375 0% 0.4%  
376 0% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0.3% 99.6%  
297 0.1% 99.3%  
298 0% 99.3%  
299 0.1% 99.3%  
300 0.1% 99.2%  
301 0.5% 99.1%  
302 0.2% 98.6%  
303 0.2% 98%  
304 0.3% 98%  
305 0.5% 98%  
306 0.1% 97%  
307 0.9% 97%  
308 0.1% 96%  
309 0.1% 96%  
310 0.2% 96%  
311 0.2% 96%  
312 1.3% 96%  
313 5% 95%  
314 0.3% 90%  
315 0.2% 90%  
316 0.5% 89%  
317 1.0% 89% Last Result
318 0.1% 88%  
319 9% 88%  
320 0.2% 79%  
321 2% 78%  
322 0.8% 76%  
323 0.6% 75%  
324 0.4% 75%  
325 0.7% 74%  
326 3% 74% Majority
327 0.5% 71%  
328 2% 71%  
329 2% 69%  
330 0.4% 67%  
331 2% 67%  
332 1.5% 65%  
333 2% 63%  
334 6% 61%  
335 1.0% 56%  
336 3% 55%  
337 0.9% 52%  
338 2% 51% Median
339 0.4% 49%  
340 0.8% 48%  
341 2% 48%  
342 2% 45%  
343 2% 43%  
344 2% 41%  
345 17% 38%  
346 1.5% 22%  
347 1.5% 20%  
348 1.0% 19%  
349 1.4% 18%  
350 0.7% 16%  
351 2% 16%  
352 0.5% 13%  
353 1.0% 13%  
354 0.3% 12%  
355 4% 12%  
356 0.4% 8%  
357 0.5% 7%  
358 0.3% 7%  
359 0.3% 7%  
360 0.2% 6%  
361 0.3% 6%  
362 0.1% 6%  
363 0.5% 6%  
364 0.2% 5%  
365 0.2% 5%  
366 3% 5%  
367 0.1% 2%  
368 0.3% 2%  
369 0% 1.3%  
370 0.1% 1.3%  
371 0.5% 1.2%  
372 0.1% 0.7%  
373 0% 0.6%  
374 0.2% 0.6%  
375 0% 0.4%  
376 0% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0.3% 99.6%  
297 0.1% 99.3%  
298 0% 99.3%  
299 0.1% 99.3%  
300 0.1% 99.2%  
301 0.5% 99.1%  
302 0.2% 98.6%  
303 0.2% 98%  
304 0.3% 98%  
305 0.5% 98%  
306 0.1% 97%  
307 0.9% 97%  
308 0.1% 96%  
309 0.1% 96%  
310 0.2% 96%  
311 0.2% 96%  
312 1.3% 96%  
313 5% 95%  
314 0.3% 90%  
315 0.2% 90%  
316 0.5% 89%  
317 1.0% 89% Last Result
318 0.1% 88%  
319 9% 88%  
320 0.2% 79%  
321 2% 78%  
322 0.8% 76%  
323 0.6% 75%  
324 0.4% 75%  
325 0.7% 74%  
326 3% 74% Majority
327 0.5% 71%  
328 2% 71%  
329 2% 69%  
330 0.4% 67%  
331 2% 67%  
332 1.5% 65%  
333 2% 63%  
334 6% 61%  
335 1.0% 56%  
336 3% 55%  
337 0.9% 52%  
338 2% 51% Median
339 0.4% 49%  
340 0.8% 48%  
341 2% 48%  
342 2% 45%  
343 2% 43%  
344 2% 41%  
345 17% 38%  
346 1.5% 22%  
347 1.5% 20%  
348 1.0% 19%  
349 1.4% 18%  
350 0.7% 16%  
351 2% 16%  
352 0.5% 13%  
353 1.0% 13%  
354 0.3% 12%  
355 4% 12%  
356 0.4% 8%  
357 0.5% 7%  
358 0.3% 7%  
359 0.3% 7%  
360 0.2% 6%  
361 0.3% 6%  
362 0.1% 6%  
363 0.5% 6%  
364 0.2% 5%  
365 0.2% 5%  
366 3% 5%  
367 0.1% 2%  
368 0.3% 2%  
369 0% 1.3%  
370 0.1% 1.3%  
371 0.5% 1.2%  
372 0.1% 0.7%  
373 0% 0.6%  
374 0.2% 0.6%  
375 0% 0.4%  
376 0% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0% 99.7%  
257 0% 99.6%  
258 0.2% 99.6%  
259 0% 99.4%  
260 0.1% 99.4%  
261 0.5% 99.3%  
262 0.1% 98.8%  
263 0% 98.7%  
264 0.3% 98.7%  
265 0.1% 98%  
266 3% 98%  
267 0.2% 95%  
268 0.2% 95%  
269 0.5% 95%  
270 0.1% 94%  
271 0.3% 94%  
272 0.2% 94%  
273 0.3% 94%  
274 0.3% 93%  
275 0.5% 93%  
276 0.4% 93%  
277 4% 92%  
278 0.3% 88%  
279 0.9% 88%  
280 0.5% 87%  
281 2% 87%  
282 0.8% 84%  
283 1.4% 83%  
284 1.0% 82%  
285 1.5% 81%  
286 1.4% 80%  
287 17% 78%  
288 2% 62%  
289 2% 59%  
290 2% 57%  
291 2% 55%  
292 0.9% 52%  
293 0.5% 51% Median
294 2% 51%  
295 0.8% 49%  
296 3% 48%  
297 1.0% 45%  
298 6% 44%  
299 2% 39%  
300 2% 37%  
301 2% 35%  
302 0.3% 33%  
303 2% 33%  
304 2% 31%  
305 0.5% 29%  
306 3% 29%  
307 0.6% 26%  
308 0.4% 26%  
309 0.6% 25%  
310 0.8% 25%  
311 2% 24%  
312 0.2% 21%  
313 9% 21%  
314 0.1% 12% Last Result
315 1.0% 12%  
316 0.5% 11%  
317 0.2% 11%  
318 0.3% 10%  
319 5% 10%  
320 1.2% 5%  
321 0.2% 4%  
322 0.2% 4%  
323 0.1% 4%  
324 0.1% 4%  
325 0.9% 4%  
326 0.1% 3% Majority
327 0.5% 3%  
328 0.3% 2%  
329 0.2% 2%  
330 0.2% 2%  
331 0.5% 1.3%  
332 0% 0.9%  
333 0.1% 0.8%  
334 0% 0.7%  
335 0% 0.7%  
336 0.3% 0.7%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.8%  
253 0% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.2% 99.6%  
256 0.1% 99.5%  
257 0.1% 99.4%  
258 0% 99.3%  
259 0.6% 99.3%  
260 0% 98.7%  
261 0% 98.7%  
262 0.3% 98.7%  
263 0.1% 98%  
264 3% 98%  
265 0.2% 95%  
266 0.2% 95%  
267 0.6% 95%  
268 0.1% 94%  
269 0.3% 94%  
270 0.5% 94%  
271 0.2% 93%  
272 0.1% 93%  
273 0.7% 93%  
274 0.4% 92%  
275 4% 92%  
276 0.7% 88%  
277 0.7% 87%  
278 0.9% 87%  
279 2% 86%  
280 0.5% 84%  
281 2% 83%  
282 1.4% 82%  
283 0.5% 80%  
284 8% 80%  
285 11% 72%  
286 3% 61%  
287 3% 58%  
288 2% 55%  
289 1.1% 53%  
290 1.4% 52%  
291 0.6% 50% Median
292 4% 50%  
293 0.9% 46%  
294 2% 45%  
295 1.3% 43%  
296 4% 41%  
297 3% 38%  
298 0.4% 35%  
299 1.3% 34%  
300 0.4% 33%  
301 3% 32%  
302 0.7% 30%  
303 1.0% 29%  
304 3% 28%  
305 0.4% 26%  
306 0.3% 25%  
307 0.8% 25%  
308 0.9% 24%  
309 11% 23%  
310 0.1% 12%  
311 0.2% 12%  
312 0.2% 12%  
313 0.8% 12% Last Result
314 0.5% 11%  
315 5% 10%  
316 0.1% 6%  
317 0.3% 6%  
318 1.3% 5%  
319 0.2% 4%  
320 0.1% 4%  
321 0.2% 4%  
322 0.1% 4%  
323 0.9% 3%  
324 0% 3%  
325 0.6% 3%  
326 0.4% 2% Majority
327 0% 2%  
328 0.2% 2%  
329 0.5% 1.3%  
330 0% 0.8%  
331 0% 0.7%  
332 0% 0.7%  
333 0.1% 0.7%  
334 0.3% 0.6%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.8%  
243 0% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.7%  
246 0% 99.6%  
247 0.1% 99.5%  
248 0.1% 99.5%  
249 0% 99.4%  
250 0.1% 99.3%  
251 0% 99.2%  
252 0.4% 99.2%  
253 0.1% 98.7%  
254 0.1% 98.6%  
255 0.3% 98.6%  
256 0.1% 98%  
257 3% 98%  
258 0.4% 95%  
259 0.1% 95%  
260 0.6% 95%  
261 0.2% 94%  
262 0.4% 94%  
263 0.2% 93%  
264 0.4% 93%  
265 4% 93%  
266 1.1% 89%  
267 0.6% 88%  
268 0.8% 87%  
269 2% 87%  
270 0.5% 84%  
271 0.2% 84%  
272 1.1% 84%  
273 0.9% 83%  
274 2% 82%  
275 9% 79%  
276 0.9% 70%  
277 2% 69%  
278 2% 67%  
279 9% 65%  
280 2% 56%  
281 1.0% 54%  
282 3% 53%  
283 0.5% 50%  
284 0.5% 50% Median
285 3% 49%  
286 0.6% 46%  
287 0.6% 45%  
288 0.9% 45%  
289 2% 44%  
290 7% 42%  
291 1.5% 35%  
292 1.4% 33%  
293 1.0% 32%  
294 0.8% 31%  
295 0.6% 30%  
296 0.9% 29%  
297 0.4% 29%  
298 3% 28%  
299 0.9% 26%  
300 2% 25%  
301 0.9% 23%  
302 9% 22%  
303 0.3% 13%  
304 0.7% 12%  
305 0.6% 12%  
306 0.4% 11%  
307 0.3% 11%  
308 5% 10%  
309 0.3% 6% Last Result
310 1.2% 6%  
311 0.2% 4%  
312 0.1% 4%  
313 0.2% 4%  
314 0.1% 4%  
315 1.0% 4%  
316 0.1% 3%  
317 0.1% 3%  
318 0.1% 3%  
319 0.3% 2%  
320 0.2% 2%  
321 0.5% 2%  
322 0.1% 1.4%  
323 0% 1.3%  
324 0% 1.3%  
325 0.6% 1.2%  
326 0% 0.6% Majority
327 0.1% 0.6%  
328 0% 0.5%  
329 0% 0.5%  
330 0.3% 0.5%  
331 0.1% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
198 0% 100%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0.1% 99.9%  
201 0.1% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.8%  
203 0.1% 99.7%  
204 0.1% 99.7%  
205 0.1% 99.6%  
206 0.1% 99.5%  
207 0.1% 99.4%  
208 0.3% 99.3%  
209 0.4% 99.0%  
210 0% 98.6%  
211 0.1% 98.5%  
212 0.2% 98%  
213 0.6% 98%  
214 3% 98%  
215 0.1% 95%  
216 0.2% 94%  
217 0.1% 94%  
218 0% 94%  
219 0.5% 94%  
220 0.4% 94%  
221 0.1% 93%  
222 0.3% 93%  
223 0.2% 93%  
224 4% 93%  
225 0.1% 89%  
226 1.0% 89%  
227 0.6% 88%  
228 3% 87%  
229 0.9% 84%  
230 0.9% 83%  
231 0.9% 83%  
232 2% 82%  
233 8% 79%  
234 3% 71%  
235 11% 68%  
236 2% 57%  
237 1.2% 55%  
238 1.4% 54%  
239 2% 52%  
240 3% 51% Median
241 3% 47%  
242 2% 45%  
243 4% 43%  
244 3% 39%  
245 0.8% 37%  
246 0.3% 36%  
247 0.4% 36%  
248 1.3% 35%  
249 1.5% 34%  
250 2% 32%  
251 2% 30%  
252 0.4% 28%  
253 0.2% 28%  
254 2% 27%  
255 0.8% 25%  
256 11% 25%  
257 0.4% 14%  
258 0.2% 13%  
259 0.1% 13%  
260 0.8% 13%  
261 0.5% 12%  
262 5% 12%  
263 0.1% 6%  
264 0.5% 6%  
265 2% 6%  
266 0.3% 4%  
267 0.1% 4%  
268 0.2% 4%  
269 0% 4%  
270 0.9% 4%  
271 0.1% 3%  
272 0.7% 3%  
273 0.3% 2%  
274 0% 2%  
275 0.2% 2%  
276 0.5% 1.4%  
277 0% 0.9%  
278 0% 0.8% Last Result
279 0% 0.8%  
280 0.2% 0.8%  
281 0.3% 0.6%  
282 0.1% 0.3%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0.2% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.7%  
204 0% 99.7%  
205 0.1% 99.7%  
206 0.1% 99.6%  
207 0.2% 99.6%  
208 0.1% 99.4%  
209 0.1% 99.3%  
210 0.6% 99.2%  
211 0.1% 98.6%  
212 0.1% 98%  
213 0.1% 98%  
214 0.4% 98%  
215 3% 98%  
216 0.2% 95%  
217 0.3% 94%  
218 0.2% 94%  
219 0.6% 94%  
220 0.2% 93%  
221 0.1% 93%  
222 0.9% 93%  
223 0.3% 92%  
224 0.6% 92%  
225 0.7% 91%  
226 4% 91%  
227 0.4% 86%  
228 7% 86%  
229 1.0% 79%  
230 1.0% 78%  
231 3% 77%  
232 1.2% 74%  
233 3% 73%  
234 1.1% 70%  
235 1.3% 69%  
236 2% 68%  
237 14% 66% Median
238 5% 51%  
239 3% 46%  
240 3% 44%  
241 2% 41%  
242 3% 39%  
243 0.7% 36%  
244 3% 35%  
245 0.4% 33%  
246 2% 32%  
247 0.4% 31%  
248 0.7% 30%  
249 0.4% 30%  
250 11% 29%  
251 0.2% 18%  
252 2% 18%  
253 0.2% 16%  
254 0.2% 16%  
255 3% 16%  
256 6% 13%  
257 0.4% 8%  
258 0.3% 7%  
259 0.4% 7%  
260 0.8% 7%  
261 1.4% 6%  
262 0.4% 4%  
263 0.1% 4%  
264 0.1% 4%  
265 0.1% 4%  
266 2% 4%  
267 0.1% 2%  
268 0.3% 2%  
269 0% 2%  
270 0.6% 2%  
271 0.5% 1.1%  
272 0% 0.6%  
273 0.1% 0.5%  
274 0% 0.5%  
275 0.1% 0.5%  
276 0.1% 0.3%  
277 0% 0.3%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0.1% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.8%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0.1% 99.7%  
195 0.1% 99.6%  
196 0.1% 99.6%  
197 0.1% 99.5%  
198 0% 99.4%  
199 0% 99.4%  
200 0.1% 99.4%  
201 0.3% 99.2%  
202 0.6% 99.0%  
203 0.1% 98%  
204 0.1% 98%  
205 0% 98%  
206 0.5% 98%  
207 3% 98%  
208 0.2% 95%  
209 0.3% 94%  
210 0.3% 94%  
211 0.1% 94%  
212 0.3% 94%  
213 0.2% 93%  
214 4% 93%  
215 0.5% 90%  
216 1.1% 89%  
217 0.2% 88%  
218 2% 88%  
219 1.1% 85%  
220 0.4% 84%  
221 0.3% 84%  
222 1.4% 84%  
223 2% 82%  
224 3% 80%  
225 9% 77%  
226 0.8% 68%  
227 2% 68%  
228 10% 65%  
229 2% 55%  
230 0.4% 53%  
231 2% 53%  
232 1.1% 51%  
233 0.5% 50% Median
234 3% 49%  
235 1.3% 47%  
236 4% 45%  
237 4% 41%  
238 0.8% 38%  
239 3% 37%  
240 0.6% 34%  
241 1.2% 34%  
242 0.6% 32%  
243 1.2% 32%  
244 0.5% 31%  
245 2% 30%  
246 0.8% 28%  
247 2% 27%  
248 2% 25%  
249 9% 23%  
250 0.4% 14%  
251 0.8% 14%  
252 0.2% 13%  
253 0.8% 13%  
254 0.6% 12%  
255 5% 11%  
256 0.6% 7%  
257 1.3% 6%  
258 0.3% 5%  
259 0.1% 4%  
260 0.2% 4%  
261 0.3% 4%  
262 0.9% 4%  
263 0.2% 3%  
264 0.1% 3%  
265 0.1% 3%  
266 0.3% 3%  
267 0.2% 2%  
268 0.7% 2%  
269 0% 1.4%  
270 0% 1.4%  
271 0% 1.3%  
272 0.6% 1.3%  
273 0% 0.7%  
274 0% 0.7% Last Result
275 0% 0.6%  
276 0.1% 0.6%  
277 0.3% 0.5%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0.1% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.8%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0.1% 99.7%  
195 0.1% 99.6%  
196 0.1% 99.6%  
197 0.1% 99.5%  
198 0% 99.4%  
199 0% 99.4%  
200 0.1% 99.4%  
201 0.3% 99.2%  
202 0.6% 99.0%  
203 0.1% 98%  
204 0.1% 98%  
205 0% 98%  
206 0.5% 98%  
207 3% 98%  
208 0.2% 95%  
209 0.3% 94%  
210 0.3% 94%  
211 0.1% 94%  
212 0.3% 94%  
213 0.2% 93%  
214 4% 93%  
215 0.5% 90%  
216 1.1% 89%  
217 0.2% 88%  
218 2% 88%  
219 1.1% 85%  
220 0.4% 84%  
221 0.3% 84%  
222 1.4% 84%  
223 2% 82%  
224 3% 80%  
225 9% 77%  
226 0.8% 68%  
227 2% 68%  
228 10% 65%  
229 2% 55%  
230 0.4% 53%  
231 2% 53%  
232 1.1% 51%  
233 0.5% 50% Median
234 3% 49%  
235 1.3% 47%  
236 4% 45%  
237 4% 41%  
238 0.8% 38%  
239 3% 37%  
240 0.6% 34%  
241 1.2% 34%  
242 0.6% 32%  
243 1.2% 32%  
244 0.5% 31%  
245 2% 30%  
246 0.8% 28%  
247 2% 27%  
248 2% 25%  
249 9% 23%  
250 0.4% 14%  
251 0.8% 14%  
252 0.2% 13%  
253 0.8% 13%  
254 0.6% 12%  
255 5% 11%  
256 0.6% 7%  
257 1.3% 6%  
258 0.3% 5%  
259 0.1% 4%  
260 0.2% 4%  
261 0.3% 4%  
262 0.9% 4%  
263 0.2% 3%  
264 0.1% 3%  
265 0.1% 3%  
266 0.3% 3%  
267 0.2% 2%  
268 0.7% 2%  
269 0% 1.4%  
270 0% 1.4%  
271 0% 1.3%  
272 0.6% 1.3%  
273 0% 0.7%  
274 0% 0.7% Last Result
275 0% 0.6%  
276 0.1% 0.6%  
277 0.3% 0.5%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0.1% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.8%  
193 0% 99.8%  
194 0% 99.8%  
195 0% 99.7%  
196 0.1% 99.7%  
197 0% 99.6%  
198 0.1% 99.6%  
199 0.1% 99.4%  
200 0.1% 99.4%  
201 0.1% 99.2%  
202 0.1% 99.1%  
203 0.5% 99.1%  
204 0.1% 98.6%  
205 0.2% 98%  
206 0.3% 98%  
207 0.3% 98%  
208 3% 98%  
209 0% 95%  
210 0.5% 95%  
211 0.6% 94%  
212 0.6% 93%  
213 0.5% 93%  
214 0.3% 92%  
215 0.4% 92%  
216 4% 92%  
217 0.1% 88%  
218 1.5% 88%  
219 0.6% 86%  
220 1.3% 86%  
221 3% 84%  
222 1.3% 82%  
223 7% 80%  
224 0.7% 74%  
225 2% 73%  
226 2% 71%  
227 9% 68%  
228 2% 60%  
229 3% 58%  
230 6% 55% Median
231 2% 48%  
232 3% 47%  
233 4% 44%  
234 2% 39%  
235 0.4% 37%  
236 1.3% 37%  
237 0.4% 36%  
238 3% 35%  
239 0.5% 32%  
240 1.0% 32%  
241 3% 31%  
242 0.4% 28%  
243 9% 28%  
244 0.9% 19%  
245 0.3% 18%  
246 2% 17%  
247 0.2% 16%  
248 0.7% 16%  
249 6% 15%  
250 0.3% 9%  
251 2% 9%  
252 0.5% 7%  
253 1.3% 7%  
254 0.4% 5%  
255 0.1% 5%  
256 0.7% 5%  
257 0.3% 4%  
258 0.9% 4%  
259 0.3% 3%  
260 0.2% 3%  
261 0% 2%  
262 0.6% 2%  
263 0.3% 2%  
264 0.2% 2%  
265 0% 1.4%  
266 0.5% 1.3%  
267 0.4% 0.8%  
268 0.1% 0.4%  
269 0.1% 0.4%  
270 0% 0.3%  
271 0% 0.3%  
272 0.1% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.1% 99.8%  
155 0.1% 99.7%  
156 0.1% 99.6%  
157 0.2% 99.5%  
158 0.1% 99.3%  
159 0% 99.2%  
160 0.8% 99.2%  
161 0.1% 98%  
162 0.2% 98%  
163 0.1% 98%  
164 0.2% 98%  
165 4% 98%  
166 0.1% 94%  
167 0.1% 94%  
168 0.3% 94%  
169 0.2% 94%  
170 0.3% 94%  
171 0.8% 93%  
172 0.3% 93%  
173 0.1% 92%  
174 0.4% 92%  
175 4% 92%  
176 0.3% 88%  
177 7% 88%  
178 1.2% 81%  
179 2% 80%  
180 4% 78%  
181 0.8% 75%  
182 2% 74%  
183 2% 72%  
184 3% 70%  
185 5% 67%  
186 8% 62% Median
187 11% 54%  
188 4% 43%  
189 0.9% 40%  
190 2% 39%  
191 0.5% 37%  
192 1.2% 36%  
193 2% 35%  
194 1.1% 33%  
195 0.9% 32%  
196 0.3% 31%  
197 11% 31%  
198 0.1% 20%  
199 2% 20%  
200 1.1% 18%  
201 0.3% 17%  
202 2% 17%  
203 5% 15%  
204 0.7% 10%  
205 2% 9%  
206 0.4% 7%  
207 1.1% 7%  
208 1.5% 6%  
209 0.3% 4%  
210 0.1% 4%  
211 0% 4%  
212 0.1% 4%  
213 2% 4%  
214 0.1% 2%  
215 0.2% 2%  
216 0% 2%  
217 0.6% 2%  
218 0.6% 1.3%  
219 0.1% 0.7%  
220 0% 0.6%  
221 0% 0.6%  
222 0.2% 0.6%  
223 0.1% 0.4%  
224 0.1% 0.3%  
225 0.1% 0.3%  
226 0% 0.2%  
227 0.1% 0.2%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0.1% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.8%  
144 0% 99.8%  
145 0% 99.8%  
146 0.2% 99.7%  
147 0.1% 99.5%  
148 0% 99.4%  
149 0.1% 99.4%  
150 0.1% 99.3%  
151 0.1% 99.3%  
152 0.2% 99.2%  
153 0.7% 99.0%  
154 0.1% 98%  
155 0% 98%  
156 0.1% 98%  
157 0.1% 98%  
158 4% 98%  
159 0% 94%  
160 0.2% 94%  
161 0.1% 94%  
162 0.3% 94%  
163 0.3% 94%  
164 0.5% 93%  
165 3% 93%  
166 0.8% 89%  
167 0.6% 89%  
168 2% 88%  
169 1.1% 86%  
170 3% 85%  
171 0.5% 83%  
172 8% 82%  
173 0.6% 74%  
174 2% 73%  
175 3% 72%  
176 3% 69%  
177 10% 66%  
178 3% 56%  
179 7% 53% Median
180 2% 46%  
181 1.2% 43%  
182 3% 42%  
183 1.1% 39%  
184 3% 38%  
185 0.3% 35%  
186 0.9% 35%  
187 2% 34%  
188 2% 32%  
189 0.7% 30%  
190 9% 29%  
191 0.1% 20%  
192 0.4% 20%  
193 2% 20%  
194 1.1% 18%  
195 0.7% 17%  
196 5% 16%  
197 0.7% 11%  
198 2% 11%  
199 2% 9%  
200 1.4% 7%  
201 0.4% 6%  
202 0.3% 5%  
203 0.8% 5%  
204 0.2% 4%  
205 0.9% 4%  
206 0.3% 3%  
207 0.1% 3%  
208 0.1% 3%  
209 0.6% 3%  
210 0.3% 2%  
211 0.1% 2%  
212 0% 1.5%  
213 0.5% 1.5%  
214 0.5% 1.0%  
215 0% 0.5%  
216 0.1% 0.4%  
217 0% 0.4%  
218 0.1% 0.4%  
219 0.1% 0.3%  
220 0% 0.2%  
221 0% 0.2%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0.1% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.8%  
144 0% 99.8%  
145 0% 99.8%  
146 0.2% 99.7%  
147 0.1% 99.5%  
148 0% 99.4%  
149 0.1% 99.4%  
150 0.1% 99.3%  
151 0.1% 99.3%  
152 0.2% 99.2%  
153 0.7% 99.0%  
154 0.1% 98%  
155 0% 98%  
156 0.1% 98%  
157 0.1% 98%  
158 4% 98%  
159 0% 94%  
160 0.2% 94%  
161 0.1% 94%  
162 0.3% 94%  
163 0.3% 94%  
164 0.5% 93%  
165 3% 93%  
166 0.8% 89%  
167 0.6% 89%  
168 2% 88%  
169 1.1% 86%  
170 3% 85%  
171 0.5% 83%  
172 8% 82%  
173 0.6% 74%  
174 2% 73%  
175 3% 72%  
176 3% 69%  
177 10% 66%  
178 3% 56%  
179 7% 53% Median
180 2% 46%  
181 1.2% 43%  
182 3% 42%  
183 1.1% 39%  
184 3% 38%  
185 0.3% 35%  
186 0.9% 35%  
187 2% 34%  
188 2% 32%  
189 0.7% 30%  
190 9% 29%  
191 0.1% 20%  
192 0.4% 20%  
193 2% 20%  
194 1.1% 18%  
195 0.7% 17%  
196 5% 16%  
197 0.7% 11%  
198 2% 11%  
199 2% 9%  
200 1.4% 7%  
201 0.4% 6%  
202 0.3% 5%  
203 0.8% 5%  
204 0.2% 4%  
205 0.9% 4%  
206 0.3% 3%  
207 0.1% 3%  
208 0.1% 3%  
209 0.6% 3%  
210 0.3% 2%  
211 0.1% 2%  
212 0% 1.5%  
213 0.5% 1.5%  
214 0.5% 1.0%  
215 0% 0.5%  
216 0.1% 0.4%  
217 0% 0.4%  
218 0.1% 0.4%  
219 0.1% 0.3%  
220 0% 0.2%  
221 0% 0.2%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations