Opinion Poll by BMG Research for The Independent, 5–8 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 36.6% 35.1–38.3% 34.6–38.7% 34.2–39.1% 33.5–39.9%
Labour Party 41.0% 28.7% 27.3–30.3% 26.8–30.7% 26.5–31.1% 25.8–31.8%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 15.8% 14.7–17.1% 14.3–17.5% 14.1–17.8% 13.5–18.4%
Brexit Party 0.0% 8.9% 8.0–9.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.6–10.5% 7.2–11.0%
Green Party 1.7% 6.9% 6.1–7.8% 5.9–8.1% 5.7–8.3% 5.4–8.8%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%
Change UK 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 332 316–354 309–362 306–364 300–373
Labour Party 262 217 203–245 195–246 190–254 181–261
Liberal Democrats 12 48 44–54 43–59 43–60 38–61
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 5 5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Scottish National Party 35 22 0–35 0–38 0–38 0–42
Plaid Cymru 4 1 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0% 99.7%  
298 0% 99.6%  
299 0.1% 99.6%  
300 0.1% 99.5%  
301 0% 99.4%  
302 0% 99.4%  
303 0% 99.4%  
304 0.1% 99.3%  
305 0.1% 99.2%  
306 4% 99.1%  
307 0.1% 95%  
308 0.3% 95%  
309 0.2% 95%  
310 0.2% 95%  
311 3% 95%  
312 0.8% 92%  
313 0.1% 91%  
314 0.6% 91%  
315 0.2% 91%  
316 0.7% 90%  
317 1.1% 90% Last Result
318 0.3% 89%  
319 1.0% 88%  
320 1.4% 87%  
321 4% 86%  
322 9% 82%  
323 0.1% 73%  
324 0.8% 73%  
325 0.3% 72%  
326 0.5% 72% Majority
327 0.8% 71%  
328 8% 70%  
329 0.3% 62%  
330 0.2% 62%  
331 10% 62%  
332 4% 51% Median
333 1.0% 47%  
334 5% 46%  
335 0.2% 41%  
336 0.4% 41%  
337 0.4% 41%  
338 2% 40%  
339 0.5% 39%  
340 0.1% 38%  
341 2% 38%  
342 1.2% 36%  
343 0.1% 35%  
344 0.3% 35%  
345 11% 35%  
346 4% 24%  
347 0.3% 20%  
348 7% 20%  
349 0% 13%  
350 0.9% 13%  
351 0.4% 12%  
352 0.2% 11%  
353 1.0% 11%  
354 0.7% 10%  
355 0.1% 9%  
356 0.6% 9%  
357 0.4% 9%  
358 0.1% 8%  
359 2% 8%  
360 0% 6%  
361 0.7% 6%  
362 0.1% 5%  
363 1.1% 5%  
364 2% 4%  
365 0% 2%  
366 0.1% 2%  
367 0.3% 2%  
368 0.2% 2%  
369 0.8% 2%  
370 0.1% 0.8%  
371 0.1% 0.7%  
372 0.1% 0.7%  
373 0.1% 0.6%  
374 0.1% 0.5%  
375 0.1% 0.4%  
376 0% 0.4%  
377 0.2% 0.3%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
175 0% 100%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0.1% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.2% 99.8%  
181 0.1% 99.5%  
182 0.1% 99.5%  
183 0.1% 99.4%  
184 0.4% 99.4%  
185 0.2% 98.9%  
186 0.8% 98.8%  
187 0% 98%  
188 0% 98%  
189 0.1% 98%  
190 2% 98%  
191 0.1% 96%  
192 0.4% 96%  
193 0.1% 96%  
194 0.1% 96%  
195 1.3% 95%  
196 0% 94%  
197 0.8% 94%  
198 0.8% 93%  
199 0% 92%  
200 0.2% 92%  
201 0.7% 92%  
202 0.1% 91%  
203 2% 91%  
204 1.4% 89%  
205 1.1% 88%  
206 0.3% 87%  
207 0.8% 87%  
208 0.5% 86%  
209 0.1% 85%  
210 0.1% 85%  
211 0.1% 85%  
212 27% 85%  
213 0.1% 59%  
214 0.4% 58%  
215 8% 58%  
216 0.2% 50%  
217 2% 50% Median
218 0.8% 48%  
219 0.6% 47%  
220 0.2% 47%  
221 0.2% 46%  
222 2% 46%  
223 4% 44%  
224 0.2% 40%  
225 0.3% 40%  
226 0.3% 39%  
227 0.3% 39%  
228 1.2% 39%  
229 8% 38%  
230 1.0% 30%  
231 0.3% 29%  
232 0.4% 28%  
233 0.2% 28%  
234 6% 28%  
235 0.6% 22%  
236 1.1% 21%  
237 1.1% 20%  
238 0.3% 19%  
239 0.5% 19%  
240 0.1% 18%  
241 1.3% 18%  
242 4% 17%  
243 0.2% 13%  
244 0.2% 13%  
245 4% 12%  
246 4% 9%  
247 0.4% 4%  
248 0.2% 4%  
249 0% 4%  
250 0% 4%  
251 0.1% 4%  
252 0.1% 4%  
253 0.1% 4%  
254 1.4% 3%  
255 0.2% 2%  
256 0.1% 2%  
257 0.4% 2%  
258 0% 1.3%  
259 0.5% 1.3%  
260 0.2% 0.8%  
261 0.1% 0.6%  
262 0% 0.4% Last Result
263 0% 0.4%  
264 0.1% 0.4%  
265 0% 0.3%  
266 0% 0.2%  
267 0% 0.2%  
268 0% 0.2%  
269 0% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0.1% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.9%  
39 1.0% 99.4%  
40 0.1% 98%  
41 0.4% 98%  
42 0.1% 98%  
43 5% 98%  
44 3% 93%  
45 9% 90%  
46 1.4% 81%  
47 0.8% 80%  
48 32% 79% Median
49 17% 47%  
50 8% 30%  
51 2% 22%  
52 7% 20%  
53 0.5% 13%  
54 4% 13%  
55 0.2% 9%  
56 1.0% 9%  
57 0.6% 8%  
58 0.5% 8%  
59 2% 7%  
60 3% 5%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.2% 100%  
3 2% 99.8%  
4 6% 98%  
5 91% 92% Median
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 2% 89%  
2 1.2% 87%  
3 0.4% 86%  
4 0.4% 86%  
5 4% 85%  
6 4% 82%  
7 0% 78%  
8 0.5% 78%  
9 0.1% 77%  
10 0.3% 77%  
11 0.2% 77%  
12 0.9% 77%  
13 0.1% 76%  
14 0.3% 76%  
15 1.2% 75%  
16 11% 74%  
17 0.3% 63%  
18 0.8% 63%  
19 0.5% 62%  
20 0.8% 62%  
21 8% 61%  
22 11% 53% Median
23 0.6% 42%  
24 0.7% 41%  
25 0.9% 41%  
26 2% 40%  
27 0.3% 37%  
28 0% 37%  
29 0.8% 37%  
30 7% 36%  
31 1.2% 29%  
32 4% 27%  
33 1.0% 23%  
34 11% 22%  
35 2% 12% Last Result
36 0.6% 10%  
37 0.4% 9%  
38 7% 9%  
39 0.7% 1.3%  
40 0% 0.6%  
41 0% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.5%  
43 0% 0.4%  
44 0.2% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100%  
1 45% 64% Median
2 9% 19%  
3 8% 10%  
4 3% 3% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 380 100% 367–402 360–410 360–414 353–418
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 380 100% 367–402 360–410 360–414 353–418
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 362 97% 333–378 328–385 324–389 313–399
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 362 97% 332–375 327–385 324–388 311–399
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 333 73% 317–354 311–363 307–367 301–374
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 332 72% 316–354 309–362 306–364 300–373
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 332 72% 316–354 309–362 306–364 300–373
Conservative Party 317 332 72% 316–354 309–362 306–364 300–373
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 314 300 5% 278–316 270–323 268–326 259–332
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 295 0.6% 273–311 266–318 263–321 254–327
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 294 0.6% 273–310 264–316 261–320 253–326
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 265 0.2% 252–295 242–300 239–304 228–316
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 265 0.2% 249–294 242–299 238–304 228–314
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 265 0.2% 249–294 242–299 238–304 228–314
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 247 0% 225–260 217–267 214–267 209–275
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 246 0% 224–259 216–266 213–266 207–275
Labour Party – Change UK 262 217 0% 203–245 195–246 190–254 181–261
Labour Party 262 217 0% 203–245 195–246 190–254 181–261
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 217 0% 205–246 196–247 190–254 184–263

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.8%  
347 0% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.8%  
349 0% 99.7%  
350 0% 99.7%  
351 0.1% 99.7%  
352 0% 99.5%  
353 0.2% 99.5%  
354 0% 99.4%  
355 0.1% 99.3%  
356 0% 99.2%  
357 0.1% 99.2%  
358 0.1% 99.1%  
359 0.4% 99.0%  
360 4% 98.6%  
361 0.5% 95%  
362 0.2% 94%  
363 1.4% 94%  
364 0.2% 93%  
365 0.1% 92%  
366 1.4% 92%  
367 8% 91%  
368 0.2% 83%  
369 0.6% 83%  
370 5% 82%  
371 2% 78%  
372 1.1% 75%  
373 1.0% 74%  
374 1.3% 73%  
375 0.1% 72%  
376 6% 72%  
377 1.0% 65%  
378 0.3% 65%  
379 0.9% 64%  
380 14% 63% Median
381 1.4% 49%  
382 0.2% 48%  
383 0.3% 47%  
384 5% 47%  
385 0.1% 42%  
386 0.6% 42%  
387 2% 42%  
388 0.2% 39%  
389 1.2% 39%  
390 0.8% 38%  
391 1.1% 37%  
392 0.4% 36%  
393 12% 35%  
394 2% 24%  
395 0.2% 22%  
396 7% 22%  
397 0.5% 15%  
398 3% 15%  
399 0.3% 12%  
400 0.4% 11%  
401 0.3% 11%  
402 2% 11%  
403 0.1% 9%  
404 0% 9%  
405 0.8% 9%  
406 0.7% 8%  
407 0.1% 7%  
408 2% 7%  
409 0.1% 5%  
410 0.1% 5%  
411 2% 5%  
412 0.1% 3%  
413 0.1% 3%  
414 0.8% 3%  
415 0.9% 2%  
416 0.2% 0.9%  
417 0.1% 0.7%  
418 0.1% 0.6%  
419 0% 0.5%  
420 0% 0.5%  
421 0.2% 0.4%  
422 0% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.8%  
347 0% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.8%  
349 0% 99.7%  
350 0% 99.7%  
351 0.1% 99.7%  
352 0% 99.5%  
353 0.2% 99.5%  
354 0% 99.4%  
355 0.1% 99.3%  
356 0% 99.2%  
357 0.1% 99.2%  
358 0.1% 99.1%  
359 0.4% 99.0%  
360 4% 98.6%  
361 0.5% 95%  
362 0.2% 94%  
363 1.4% 94%  
364 0.2% 93%  
365 0.1% 92%  
366 1.4% 92%  
367 8% 91%  
368 0.2% 83%  
369 0.6% 83%  
370 5% 82%  
371 2% 78%  
372 1.1% 75%  
373 1.0% 74%  
374 1.3% 73%  
375 0.1% 72%  
376 6% 72%  
377 1.0% 65%  
378 0.3% 65%  
379 0.9% 64%  
380 14% 63% Median
381 1.4% 49%  
382 0.2% 48%  
383 0.3% 47%  
384 5% 47%  
385 0.1% 42%  
386 0.6% 42%  
387 2% 42%  
388 0.2% 39%  
389 1.2% 39%  
390 0.8% 38%  
391 1.1% 37%  
392 0.4% 36%  
393 12% 35%  
394 2% 24%  
395 0.2% 22%  
396 7% 22%  
397 0.5% 15%  
398 3% 15%  
399 0.3% 12%  
400 0.4% 11%  
401 0.3% 11%  
402 2% 11%  
403 0.1% 9%  
404 0% 9%  
405 0.8% 9%  
406 0.7% 8%  
407 0.1% 7%  
408 2% 7%  
409 0.1% 5%  
410 0.1% 5%  
411 2% 5%  
412 0.1% 3%  
413 0.1% 3%  
414 0.8% 3%  
415 0.9% 2%  
416 0.2% 0.9%  
417 0.1% 0.7%  
418 0.1% 0.6%  
419 0% 0.5%  
420 0% 0.5%  
421 0.2% 0.4%  
422 0% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0% 99.8%  
304 0% 99.8%  
305 0% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0% 99.8%  
308 0% 99.8%  
309 0% 99.7%  
310 0% 99.7%  
311 0% 99.7%  
312 0.1% 99.7%  
313 0.1% 99.6%  
314 0.1% 99.5%  
315 0.1% 99.4%  
316 0% 99.3%  
317 0% 99.3%  
318 0% 99.3%  
319 0.1% 99.2%  
320 0% 99.1%  
321 0.5% 99.1%  
322 0.1% 98.6%  
323 0.4% 98.5%  
324 0.8% 98%  
325 0.2% 97%  
326 0% 97% Majority
327 0.7% 97%  
328 4% 96%  
329 0.1% 93%  
330 0.3% 92%  
331 0.1% 92%  
332 0.5% 92%  
333 4% 92%  
334 2% 87%  
335 4% 85%  
336 1.1% 81%  
337 0.1% 80%  
338 0.4% 80%  
339 0.3% 80%  
340 0.6% 79%  
341 0.8% 79%  
342 1.1% 78%  
343 0.5% 77%  
344 5% 76%  
345 2% 72%  
346 0.3% 69%  
347 0.5% 69%  
348 0.2% 69%  
349 0.6% 68%  
350 0.5% 68%  
351 0.1% 67%  
352 4% 67%  
353 7% 63%  
354 0.2% 56%  
355 0.7% 56% Median
356 1.2% 55% Last Result
357 0.3% 54%  
358 0% 53%  
359 0.8% 53%  
360 1.3% 53%  
361 0.7% 51%  
362 1.3% 51%  
363 0.2% 49%  
364 7% 49%  
365 0.1% 42%  
366 11% 42%  
367 17% 31%  
368 0.1% 15%  
369 0.4% 14%  
370 0% 14%  
371 0.3% 14%  
372 0.7% 14%  
373 0.1% 13%  
374 0.3% 13%  
375 1.4% 12%  
376 0.2% 11%  
377 0.6% 11%  
378 0.7% 10%  
379 0.7% 10%  
380 1.4% 9%  
381 0.6% 7%  
382 0.1% 7%  
383 0.1% 7%  
384 1.1% 7%  
385 3% 6%  
386 0.1% 3%  
387 0.1% 3%  
388 0% 3%  
389 0.8% 3%  
390 0.1% 2%  
391 0% 2%  
392 0.2% 2%  
393 0% 2%  
394 0.3% 1.5%  
395 0% 1.2%  
396 0.2% 1.2%  
397 0.1% 0.9%  
398 0.1% 0.8%  
399 0.4% 0.8%  
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0% 99.8%  
304 0% 99.8%  
305 0% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0% 99.7%  
308 0% 99.7%  
309 0% 99.7%  
310 0% 99.7%  
311 0.2% 99.7%  
312 0.1% 99.5%  
313 0% 99.4%  
314 0.1% 99.4%  
315 0% 99.3%  
316 0% 99.3%  
317 0% 99.2%  
318 0% 99.2%  
319 0.2% 99.2%  
320 0.2% 99.0%  
321 0.2% 98.8%  
322 0.5% 98.5%  
323 0% 98%  
324 0.9% 98%  
325 0% 97%  
326 0.4% 97% Majority
327 4% 97%  
328 0.1% 92%  
329 0.1% 92%  
330 0% 92%  
331 0.2% 92%  
332 5% 92%  
333 0.3% 87%  
334 7% 87%  
335 0% 80%  
336 0.1% 80%  
337 0.8% 80%  
338 0.4% 79%  
339 0.8% 79%  
340 0.4% 78%  
341 0.1% 78%  
342 5% 78%  
343 3% 73%  
344 1.4% 70%  
345 0.1% 69%  
346 0.3% 69%  
347 0.3% 68%  
348 0.7% 68%  
349 0.1% 67%  
350 0.6% 67%  
351 4% 67%  
352 7% 63% Last Result
353 0.1% 56%  
354 0.2% 55% Median
355 1.5% 55%  
356 0.2% 54%  
357 1.3% 54%  
358 0.1% 52%  
359 1.0% 52%  
360 0.5% 51%  
361 0.6% 51%  
362 1.2% 50%  
363 0.3% 49%  
364 8% 49%  
365 10% 41%  
366 6% 31%  
367 10% 25%  
368 0.4% 14%  
369 0.1% 14%  
370 0.4% 14%  
371 0.6% 13%  
372 0.9% 13%  
373 0.2% 12%  
374 1.1% 12%  
375 0.8% 11%  
376 0.9% 10%  
377 0.2% 9%  
378 0.1% 9%  
379 0% 9%  
380 2% 9%  
381 0.1% 7%  
382 0% 7%  
383 1.2% 7%  
384 0.1% 6%  
385 3% 5%  
386 0.1% 3%  
387 0% 3%  
388 0% 3%  
389 0.7% 2%  
390 0.1% 2%  
391 0% 2%  
392 0.4% 2%  
393 0.1% 1.3%  
394 0.2% 1.2%  
395 0% 1.0%  
396 0.2% 0.9%  
397 0.1% 0.7%  
398 0.1% 0.6%  
399 0.3% 0.6%  
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0% 99.7%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.1% 99.6%  
301 0.1% 99.5%  
302 0% 99.4%  
303 0% 99.4%  
304 0% 99.4%  
305 0.2% 99.4%  
306 0.1% 99.2%  
307 4% 99.1%  
308 0.1% 96%  
309 0.1% 95%  
310 0.1% 95%  
311 0.4% 95%  
312 0.2% 95%  
313 2% 95%  
314 1.0% 92%  
315 0.6% 91%  
316 0.3% 91%  
317 0.9% 90%  
318 0.4% 89%  
319 1.0% 89%  
320 0.4% 88%  
321 1.3% 88% Last Result
322 1.4% 86%  
323 12% 85%  
324 0.2% 74%  
325 0.4% 73%  
326 1.2% 73% Majority
327 0.7% 72%  
328 2% 71%  
329 6% 69%  
330 0.5% 63%  
331 0.3% 62%  
332 10% 62%  
333 4% 52% Median
334 1.1% 48%  
335 5% 46%  
336 0.3% 42%  
337 0.2% 42%  
338 2% 41%  
339 0.8% 40%  
340 0.2% 39%  
341 0.6% 39%  
342 0.2% 38%  
343 0.7% 38%  
344 1.3% 37%  
345 11% 36%  
346 2% 25%  
347 3% 23%  
348 7% 20%  
349 0.7% 14%  
350 0.2% 13%  
351 0.9% 13%  
352 0.3% 12%  
353 0.8% 11%  
354 0.7% 11%  
355 0.1% 10%  
356 0.4% 10%  
357 0% 9%  
358 0.1% 9%  
359 2% 9%  
360 0.9% 7%  
361 0.7% 6%  
362 0.1% 5%  
363 1.0% 5%  
364 1.4% 4%  
365 0.1% 3%  
366 0.1% 3%  
367 0.7% 3%  
368 0.1% 2%  
369 0.8% 2%  
370 0% 1.0%  
371 0.1% 0.9%  
372 0.1% 0.8%  
373 0.1% 0.7%  
374 0.1% 0.6%  
375 0.1% 0.5%  
376 0% 0.4%  
377 0.2% 0.4%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0% 99.7%  
298 0% 99.6%  
299 0.1% 99.6%  
300 0.1% 99.5%  
301 0% 99.4%  
302 0% 99.4%  
303 0% 99.4%  
304 0.1% 99.3%  
305 0.1% 99.2%  
306 4% 99.1%  
307 0.1% 95%  
308 0.3% 95%  
309 0.2% 95%  
310 0.2% 95%  
311 3% 95%  
312 0.8% 92%  
313 0.1% 91%  
314 0.6% 91%  
315 0.2% 91%  
316 0.7% 90%  
317 1.1% 90% Last Result
318 0.3% 89%  
319 1.0% 88%  
320 1.4% 87%  
321 4% 86%  
322 9% 82%  
323 0.1% 73%  
324 0.8% 73%  
325 0.3% 72%  
326 0.5% 72% Majority
327 0.8% 71%  
328 8% 70%  
329 0.3% 62%  
330 0.2% 62%  
331 10% 62%  
332 4% 51% Median
333 1.0% 47%  
334 5% 46%  
335 0.2% 41%  
336 0.4% 41%  
337 0.4% 41%  
338 2% 40%  
339 0.5% 39%  
340 0.1% 38%  
341 2% 38%  
342 1.2% 36%  
343 0.1% 35%  
344 0.3% 35%  
345 11% 35%  
346 4% 24%  
347 0.3% 20%  
348 7% 20%  
349 0% 13%  
350 0.9% 13%  
351 0.4% 12%  
352 0.2% 11%  
353 1.0% 11%  
354 0.7% 10%  
355 0.1% 9%  
356 0.6% 9%  
357 0.4% 9%  
358 0.1% 8%  
359 2% 8%  
360 0% 6%  
361 0.7% 6%  
362 0.1% 5%  
363 1.1% 5%  
364 2% 4%  
365 0% 2%  
366 0.1% 2%  
367 0.3% 2%  
368 0.2% 2%  
369 0.8% 2%  
370 0.1% 0.8%  
371 0.1% 0.7%  
372 0.1% 0.7%  
373 0.1% 0.6%  
374 0.1% 0.5%  
375 0.1% 0.4%  
376 0% 0.4%  
377 0.2% 0.3%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0% 99.7%  
298 0% 99.6%  
299 0.1% 99.6%  
300 0.1% 99.5%  
301 0% 99.4%  
302 0% 99.4%  
303 0% 99.4%  
304 0.1% 99.3%  
305 0.1% 99.2%  
306 4% 99.1%  
307 0.1% 95%  
308 0.3% 95%  
309 0.2% 95%  
310 0.2% 95%  
311 3% 95%  
312 0.8% 92%  
313 0.1% 91%  
314 0.6% 91%  
315 0.2% 91%  
316 0.7% 90%  
317 1.1% 90% Last Result
318 0.3% 89%  
319 1.0% 88%  
320 1.4% 87%  
321 4% 86%  
322 9% 82%  
323 0.1% 73%  
324 0.8% 73%  
325 0.3% 72%  
326 0.5% 72% Majority
327 0.8% 71%  
328 8% 70%  
329 0.3% 62%  
330 0.2% 62%  
331 10% 62%  
332 4% 51% Median
333 1.0% 47%  
334 5% 46%  
335 0.2% 41%  
336 0.4% 41%  
337 0.4% 41%  
338 2% 40%  
339 0.5% 39%  
340 0.1% 38%  
341 2% 38%  
342 1.2% 36%  
343 0.1% 35%  
344 0.3% 35%  
345 11% 35%  
346 4% 24%  
347 0.3% 20%  
348 7% 20%  
349 0% 13%  
350 0.9% 13%  
351 0.4% 12%  
352 0.2% 11%  
353 1.0% 11%  
354 0.7% 10%  
355 0.1% 9%  
356 0.6% 9%  
357 0.4% 9%  
358 0.1% 8%  
359 2% 8%  
360 0% 6%  
361 0.7% 6%  
362 0.1% 5%  
363 1.1% 5%  
364 2% 4%  
365 0% 2%  
366 0.1% 2%  
367 0.3% 2%  
368 0.2% 2%  
369 0.8% 2%  
370 0.1% 0.8%  
371 0.1% 0.7%  
372 0.1% 0.7%  
373 0.1% 0.6%  
374 0.1% 0.5%  
375 0.1% 0.4%  
376 0% 0.4%  
377 0.2% 0.3%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0% 99.7%  
298 0% 99.6%  
299 0.1% 99.6%  
300 0.1% 99.5%  
301 0% 99.4%  
302 0% 99.4%  
303 0% 99.4%  
304 0.1% 99.3%  
305 0.1% 99.2%  
306 4% 99.1%  
307 0.1% 95%  
308 0.3% 95%  
309 0.2% 95%  
310 0.2% 95%  
311 3% 95%  
312 0.8% 92%  
313 0.1% 91%  
314 0.6% 91%  
315 0.2% 91%  
316 0.7% 90%  
317 1.1% 90% Last Result
318 0.3% 89%  
319 1.0% 88%  
320 1.4% 87%  
321 4% 86%  
322 9% 82%  
323 0.1% 73%  
324 0.8% 73%  
325 0.3% 72%  
326 0.5% 72% Majority
327 0.8% 71%  
328 8% 70%  
329 0.3% 62%  
330 0.2% 62%  
331 10% 62%  
332 4% 51% Median
333 1.0% 47%  
334 5% 46%  
335 0.2% 41%  
336 0.4% 41%  
337 0.4% 41%  
338 2% 40%  
339 0.5% 39%  
340 0.1% 38%  
341 2% 38%  
342 1.2% 36%  
343 0.1% 35%  
344 0.3% 35%  
345 11% 35%  
346 4% 24%  
347 0.3% 20%  
348 7% 20%  
349 0% 13%  
350 0.9% 13%  
351 0.4% 12%  
352 0.2% 11%  
353 1.0% 11%  
354 0.7% 10%  
355 0.1% 9%  
356 0.6% 9%  
357 0.4% 9%  
358 0.1% 8%  
359 2% 8%  
360 0% 6%  
361 0.7% 6%  
362 0.1% 5%  
363 1.1% 5%  
364 2% 4%  
365 0% 2%  
366 0.1% 2%  
367 0.3% 2%  
368 0.2% 2%  
369 0.8% 2%  
370 0.1% 0.8%  
371 0.1% 0.7%  
372 0.1% 0.7%  
373 0.1% 0.6%  
374 0.1% 0.5%  
375 0.1% 0.4%  
376 0% 0.4%  
377 0.2% 0.3%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.2% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.7%  
257 0.1% 99.6%  
258 0.1% 99.6%  
259 0.1% 99.5%  
260 0.1% 99.4%  
261 0.1% 99.3%  
262 0.1% 99.3%  
263 0.8% 99.2%  
264 0.1% 98%  
265 0.3% 98%  
266 0.1% 98%  
267 0% 98%  
268 2% 98%  
269 1.1% 96%  
270 0.1% 95%  
271 0.7% 95%  
272 0% 94%  
273 2% 94%  
274 0.1% 92%  
275 0.4% 92%  
276 0.6% 91%  
277 0.1% 91%  
278 0.7% 91%  
279 1.0% 90%  
280 0.2% 89%  
281 0.4% 89%  
282 0.9% 88%  
283 0% 87%  
284 7% 87%  
285 0.3% 80%  
286 4% 80%  
287 11% 76%  
288 0.3% 65%  
289 0.1% 65%  
290 1.2% 65%  
291 2% 64%  
292 0.1% 62%  
293 0.5% 62% Median
294 2% 61%  
295 0.4% 60%  
296 0.4% 59%  
297 0.2% 59%  
298 5% 59%  
299 1.0% 54%  
300 4% 53%  
301 10% 49%  
302 0.2% 38%  
303 0.3% 38%  
304 8% 38%  
305 0.8% 30%  
306 0.5% 29%  
307 0.3% 28%  
308 0.7% 28%  
309 0.2% 27%  
310 9% 27%  
311 4% 18%  
312 1.4% 14%  
313 1.0% 13%  
314 0.3% 12% Last Result
315 1.1% 11%  
316 0.7% 10%  
317 0.2% 10%  
318 0.6% 9%  
319 0.1% 9%  
320 0.8% 9%  
321 3% 8%  
322 0.2% 5%  
323 0.2% 5%  
324 0.3% 5%  
325 0.1% 5%  
326 4% 5% Majority
327 0.1% 0.9%  
328 0.1% 0.8%  
329 0% 0.7%  
330 0% 0.7%  
331 0% 0.6%  
332 0.1% 0.6%  
333 0.1% 0.5%  
334 0% 0.4%  
335 0% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.2% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.7%  
252 0% 99.6%  
253 0.1% 99.6%  
254 0.1% 99.6%  
255 0% 99.4%  
256 0.1% 99.4%  
257 0.1% 99.3%  
258 0.6% 99.2%  
259 0.3% 98.6%  
260 0.4% 98%  
261 0.1% 98%  
262 0.1% 98%  
263 2% 98%  
264 1.1% 96%  
265 0% 95%  
266 0.7% 95%  
267 0.1% 94%  
268 2% 94%  
269 0.1% 92%  
270 0.9% 92%  
271 0.6% 91%  
272 0.1% 91%  
273 0.7% 91%  
274 0.5% 90%  
275 0.2% 89%  
276 0.8% 89%  
277 0.9% 88%  
278 0.1% 88%  
279 7% 87%  
280 0.2% 80%  
281 4% 80%  
282 11% 76%  
283 0.2% 65%  
284 0.2% 65%  
285 1.2% 65%  
286 1.4% 64%  
287 0.1% 62%  
288 0.6% 62% Median
289 0.7% 61%  
290 1.5% 61%  
291 0.4% 59%  
292 0.1% 59%  
293 5% 59%  
294 1.1% 54%  
295 4% 53%  
296 10% 49%  
297 0.6% 39%  
298 0.2% 38%  
299 8% 38%  
300 0.7% 30%  
301 0.3% 29%  
302 0.7% 29%  
303 0.2% 28%  
304 0.7% 28%  
305 8% 27%  
306 5% 19%  
307 1.3% 14%  
308 1.3% 13%  
309 0.1% 12%  
310 1.1% 12%  
311 0.9% 10%  
312 0.1% 10%  
313 0.4% 10% Last Result
314 0.5% 9%  
315 0.8% 9%  
316 2% 8%  
317 0.5% 6%  
318 0.2% 5%  
319 0.2% 5%  
320 0.1% 5%  
321 4% 5%  
322 0.1% 1.0%  
323 0.2% 0.9%  
324 0% 0.7%  
325 0% 0.7%  
326 0% 0.6% Majority
327 0.1% 0.6%  
328 0% 0.5%  
329 0.1% 0.5%  
330 0% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0.2% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.6%  
252 0% 99.6%  
253 0.1% 99.6%  
254 0.1% 99.5%  
255 0.1% 99.3%  
256 0.2% 99.2%  
257 0.1% 99.1%  
258 0.5% 99.0%  
259 0.2% 98%  
260 0.7% 98%  
261 0.1% 98%  
262 0% 97%  
263 1.4% 97%  
264 1.0% 96%  
265 0.2% 95%  
266 0.7% 95%  
267 0.4% 94%  
268 2% 94%  
269 0.6% 91%  
270 0% 91%  
271 0.4% 91%  
272 0.1% 90%  
273 0.8% 90%  
274 0.3% 89%  
275 0.3% 89%  
276 1.4% 89%  
277 0.2% 87%  
278 0.8% 87%  
279 7% 86%  
280 3% 80%  
281 2% 77%  
282 10% 75%  
283 1.3% 64%  
284 0.7% 63%  
285 0.3% 62%  
286 0.3% 62%  
287 0.2% 62% Median
288 0.9% 61%  
289 0.7% 61%  
290 1.3% 60%  
291 0.3% 59%  
292 5% 58%  
293 0.8% 54%  
294 5% 53%  
295 10% 48%  
296 0.2% 38%  
297 0.7% 38%  
298 6% 37%  
299 2% 31%  
300 0.6% 29%  
301 0.4% 28%  
302 1.3% 28%  
303 0.2% 27%  
304 11% 26%  
305 0.9% 15%  
306 2% 14%  
307 0.6% 12%  
308 0.9% 12%  
309 0.2% 11% Last Result
310 1.0% 11%  
311 0.3% 10%  
312 0.4% 9%  
313 1.1% 9%  
314 3% 8%  
315 0.2% 5%  
316 0.3% 5%  
317 0.3% 5%  
318 0.1% 5%  
319 0% 5%  
320 4% 5%  
321 0.1% 0.9%  
322 0.1% 0.8%  
323 0.1% 0.7%  
324 0% 0.6%  
325 0% 0.6%  
326 0.1% 0.6% Majority
327 0% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.5%  
329 0% 0.3%  
330 0% 0.3%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.3% 99.7%  
229 0.1% 99.4%  
230 0.1% 99.4%  
231 0.2% 99.3%  
232 0% 99.1%  
233 0.2% 99.0%  
234 0.1% 98.8%  
235 0.2% 98.7%  
236 0.1% 98.5%  
237 0.2% 98%  
238 0.7% 98%  
239 0% 98%  
240 0.1% 97%  
241 0.1% 97%  
242 3% 97%  
243 0.1% 95%  
244 1.2% 95%  
245 0.2% 93%  
246 0.1% 93%  
247 2% 93%  
248 0% 91%  
249 0.1% 91%  
250 0.2% 91%  
251 0.9% 91%  
252 0.8% 90%  
253 1.1% 89%  
254 0.1% 88%  
255 0.9% 88%  
256 0.1% 87%  
257 0.4% 87%  
258 0.6% 87%  
259 0.4% 86%  
260 10% 86%  
261 6% 75%  
262 10% 69%  
263 7% 59%  
264 0.5% 52%  
265 1.4% 51%  
266 0.1% 50% Median
267 0.2% 50%  
268 2% 50%  
269 0.1% 48%  
270 1.1% 48%  
271 0.2% 47%  
272 2% 46%  
273 0.2% 45%  
274 0.1% 45%  
275 7% 45%  
276 4% 37%  
277 0.6% 33%  
278 0.1% 33% Last Result
279 0.7% 33%  
280 0.3% 32%  
281 0.3% 32%  
282 0% 31%  
283 0.4% 31%  
284 4% 31%  
285 4% 27%  
286 0.1% 23%  
287 0.3% 23%  
288 0.6% 22%  
289 1.0% 22%  
290 0.8% 21%  
291 0.1% 20%  
292 0% 20%  
293 7% 20%  
294 0.3% 13%  
295 4% 13%  
296 0.5% 9%  
297 0% 8%  
298 0.1% 8%  
299 0.1% 8%  
300 4% 8%  
301 0.1% 3%  
302 0.4% 3%  
303 0.1% 3%  
304 0.9% 3%  
305 0.4% 2%  
306 0.2% 2%  
307 0.2% 1.5%  
308 0.3% 1.2%  
309 0.1% 0.9%  
310 0% 0.8%  
311 0% 0.8%  
312 0% 0.7%  
313 0.1% 0.7%  
314 0% 0.6%  
315 0.1% 0.6%  
316 0.1% 0.5%  
317 0.1% 0.4%  
318 0% 0.3%  
319 0% 0.3%  
320 0% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0.1% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.4% 99.7%  
229 0.1% 99.2%  
230 0.1% 99.2%  
231 0.2% 99.1%  
232 0% 98.8%  
233 0.3% 98.8%  
234 0.1% 98.6%  
235 0% 98%  
236 0.1% 98%  
237 0.1% 98%  
238 0.8% 98%  
239 0% 97%  
240 0.1% 97%  
241 0.1% 97%  
242 3% 97%  
243 1.0% 95%  
244 0.2% 94%  
245 0.1% 93%  
246 0.6% 93%  
247 1.4% 93%  
248 0.7% 91%  
249 0.7% 90%  
250 0.6% 90%  
251 0.2% 89%  
252 1.4% 89%  
253 0.3% 88%  
254 0.1% 87%  
255 0.2% 87%  
256 0.3% 87%  
257 0.5% 87%  
258 0.4% 86%  
259 0.1% 86%  
260 16% 86%  
261 11% 69%  
262 0.1% 58%  
263 7% 58%  
264 0.3% 51%  
265 1.3% 51% Median
266 0.2% 49%  
267 1.1% 49%  
268 2% 48%  
269 0% 47%  
270 0.1% 47%  
271 1.2% 46%  
272 0.8% 45%  
273 0.2% 44%  
274 7% 44% Last Result
275 4% 37%  
276 0.1% 33%  
277 0.6% 33%  
278 0.6% 32%  
279 0.2% 32%  
280 0.5% 31%  
281 0.2% 31%  
282 2% 31%  
283 4% 28%  
284 1.3% 25%  
285 1.2% 23%  
286 0.2% 22%  
287 1.3% 22%  
288 0.3% 21%  
289 0.4% 20%  
290 0.1% 20%  
291 1.1% 20%  
292 4% 19%  
293 2% 15%  
294 4% 13%  
295 0.1% 8%  
296 0.5% 8%  
297 0.3% 8%  
298 0% 8%  
299 4% 7%  
300 0.4% 4%  
301 0.4% 3%  
302 0.1% 3%  
303 0.2% 3%  
304 1.2% 3%  
305 0.1% 1.5%  
306 0.1% 1.4%  
307 0.4% 1.3%  
308 0% 0.9%  
309 0.1% 0.9%  
310 0% 0.7%  
311 0% 0.7%  
312 0.1% 0.7%  
313 0.1% 0.6%  
314 0% 0.5%  
315 0.2% 0.5%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0% 0.3%  
318 0% 0.3%  
319 0% 0.3%  
320 0% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0.1% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.4% 99.7%  
229 0.1% 99.2%  
230 0.1% 99.2%  
231 0.2% 99.1%  
232 0% 98.8%  
233 0.3% 98.8%  
234 0.1% 98.6%  
235 0% 98%  
236 0.1% 98%  
237 0.1% 98%  
238 0.8% 98%  
239 0% 97%  
240 0.1% 97%  
241 0.1% 97%  
242 3% 97%  
243 1.0% 95%  
244 0.2% 94%  
245 0.1% 93%  
246 0.6% 93%  
247 1.4% 93%  
248 0.7% 91%  
249 0.7% 90%  
250 0.6% 90%  
251 0.2% 89%  
252 1.4% 89%  
253 0.3% 88%  
254 0.1% 87%  
255 0.2% 87%  
256 0.3% 87%  
257 0.5% 87%  
258 0.4% 86%  
259 0.1% 86%  
260 16% 86%  
261 11% 69%  
262 0.1% 58%  
263 7% 58%  
264 0.3% 51%  
265 1.3% 51% Median
266 0.2% 49%  
267 1.1% 49%  
268 2% 48%  
269 0% 47%  
270 0.1% 47%  
271 1.2% 46%  
272 0.8% 45%  
273 0.2% 44%  
274 7% 44% Last Result
275 4% 37%  
276 0.1% 33%  
277 0.6% 33%  
278 0.6% 32%  
279 0.2% 32%  
280 0.5% 31%  
281 0.2% 31%  
282 2% 31%  
283 4% 28%  
284 1.3% 25%  
285 1.2% 23%  
286 0.2% 22%  
287 1.3% 22%  
288 0.3% 21%  
289 0.4% 20%  
290 0.1% 20%  
291 1.1% 20%  
292 4% 19%  
293 2% 15%  
294 4% 13%  
295 0.1% 8%  
296 0.5% 8%  
297 0.3% 8%  
298 0% 8%  
299 4% 7%  
300 0.4% 4%  
301 0.4% 3%  
302 0.1% 3%  
303 0.2% 3%  
304 1.2% 3%  
305 0.1% 1.5%  
306 0.1% 1.4%  
307 0.4% 1.3%  
308 0% 0.9%  
309 0.1% 0.9%  
310 0% 0.7%  
311 0% 0.7%  
312 0.1% 0.7%  
313 0.1% 0.6%  
314 0% 0.5%  
315 0.2% 0.5%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0% 0.3%  
318 0% 0.3%  
319 0% 0.3%  
320 0% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0.1% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
195 0% 100%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0% 99.8%  
206 0.2% 99.8%  
207 0% 99.6%  
208 0% 99.5%  
209 0.1% 99.5%  
210 0.1% 99.5%  
211 0.2% 99.4%  
212 0.8% 99.1%  
213 0.8% 98%  
214 0.2% 98%  
215 0.1% 97%  
216 2% 97%  
217 0.1% 95%  
218 0.1% 95%  
219 2% 95%  
220 0.2% 93%  
221 1.1% 93%  
222 0.8% 92%  
223 0% 91%  
224 0.1% 91%  
225 1.4% 91%  
226 0.3% 90%  
227 0.8% 89%  
228 0.3% 89%  
229 3% 88%  
230 0.5% 85%  
231 7% 85%  
232 0.2% 78%  
233 2% 78%  
234 12% 76%  
235 0.3% 65%  
236 1.3% 64%  
237 0.8% 63%  
238 1.3% 62%  
239 0.2% 61%  
240 2% 61% Median
241 0.3% 58%  
242 0.1% 58%  
243 5% 58%  
244 0.3% 53%  
245 0.2% 53%  
246 0.3% 53%  
247 16% 52%  
248 0.8% 37%  
249 0.3% 36%  
250 0.9% 36%  
251 6% 35%  
252 0.1% 28%  
253 0.2% 28%  
254 2% 28%  
255 0.3% 26%  
256 3% 26%  
257 4% 22%  
258 0.6% 18%  
259 0.4% 17%  
260 8% 17%  
261 1.4% 9%  
262 0.3% 8%  
263 0.2% 8%  
264 1.3% 7%  
265 0.2% 6%  
266 0.3% 6%  
267 4% 5%  
268 0.2% 1.4%  
269 0.3% 1.2%  
270 0.1% 0.9%  
271 0.1% 0.8%  
272 0% 0.8%  
273 0.1% 0.7%  
274 0.1% 0.7%  
275 0.1% 0.6%  
276 0.1% 0.5%  
277 0.1% 0.4%  
278 0% 0.3%  
279 0.1% 0.3%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0% 99.8%  
205 0.1% 99.8%  
206 0.2% 99.8%  
207 0.1% 99.5%  
208 0% 99.4%  
209 0.3% 99.4%  
210 0.1% 99.1%  
211 0.3% 99.0%  
212 0.9% 98.7%  
213 0.6% 98%  
214 0.2% 97%  
215 0.1% 97%  
216 2% 97%  
217 0.1% 95%  
218 0.7% 95%  
219 1.5% 94%  
220 0.7% 93%  
221 0% 92%  
222 1.2% 92%  
223 0.1% 91%  
224 1.0% 91%  
225 0.2% 90%  
226 0.4% 89%  
227 1.0% 89%  
228 3% 88%  
229 0.3% 85%  
230 0.2% 85%  
231 7% 85%  
232 0.9% 78%  
233 3% 77%  
234 11% 74%  
235 0.4% 63%  
236 2% 62%  
237 0.1% 61%  
238 0.2% 61%  
239 0.4% 61% Median
240 3% 60%  
241 0.2% 57%  
242 4% 57%  
243 0.9% 53%  
244 0.1% 52%  
245 0.5% 52%  
246 14% 52%  
247 2% 38%  
248 1.0% 36%  
249 0.2% 35%  
250 6% 35%  
251 0.4% 28%  
252 2% 28%  
253 0.3% 26%  
254 3% 26%  
255 4% 23%  
256 1.1% 19%  
257 0.6% 18%  
258 0.8% 17%  
259 8% 17%  
260 0.2% 9%  
261 1.0% 9%  
262 0.3% 8%  
263 1.4% 7%  
264 0.2% 6%  
265 0.3% 6%  
266 4% 5%  
267 0.2% 1.2%  
268 0% 1.0%  
269 0.1% 0.9%  
270 0.1% 0.8%  
271 0% 0.8%  
272 0.1% 0.7%  
273 0.1% 0.7%  
274 0% 0.5%  
275 0.1% 0.5%  
276 0.1% 0.4%  
277 0% 0.3%  
278 0.1% 0.3%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
175 0% 100%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0.1% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.2% 99.8%  
181 0.1% 99.5%  
182 0.1% 99.5%  
183 0.1% 99.4%  
184 0.4% 99.4%  
185 0.2% 98.9%  
186 0.8% 98.8%  
187 0% 98%  
188 0% 98%  
189 0.1% 98%  
190 2% 98%  
191 0.1% 96%  
192 0.4% 96%  
193 0.1% 96%  
194 0.1% 96%  
195 1.3% 95%  
196 0% 94%  
197 0.8% 94%  
198 0.8% 93%  
199 0% 92%  
200 0.2% 92%  
201 0.7% 92%  
202 0.1% 91%  
203 2% 91%  
204 1.4% 89%  
205 1.1% 88%  
206 0.3% 87%  
207 0.8% 87%  
208 0.5% 86%  
209 0.1% 85%  
210 0.1% 85%  
211 0.1% 85%  
212 27% 85%  
213 0.1% 59%  
214 0.4% 58%  
215 8% 58%  
216 0.2% 50%  
217 2% 50% Median
218 0.8% 48%  
219 0.6% 47%  
220 0.2% 47%  
221 0.2% 46%  
222 2% 46%  
223 4% 44%  
224 0.2% 40%  
225 0.3% 40%  
226 0.3% 39%  
227 0.3% 39%  
228 1.2% 39%  
229 8% 38%  
230 1.0% 30%  
231 0.3% 29%  
232 0.4% 28%  
233 0.2% 28%  
234 6% 28%  
235 0.6% 22%  
236 1.1% 21%  
237 1.1% 20%  
238 0.3% 19%  
239 0.5% 19%  
240 0.1% 18%  
241 1.3% 18%  
242 4% 17%  
243 0.2% 13%  
244 0.2% 13%  
245 4% 12%  
246 4% 9%  
247 0.4% 4%  
248 0.2% 4%  
249 0% 4%  
250 0% 4%  
251 0.1% 4%  
252 0.1% 4%  
253 0.1% 4%  
254 1.4% 3%  
255 0.2% 2%  
256 0.1% 2%  
257 0.4% 2%  
258 0% 1.3%  
259 0.5% 1.3%  
260 0.2% 0.8%  
261 0.1% 0.6%  
262 0% 0.4% Last Result
263 0% 0.4%  
264 0.1% 0.4%  
265 0% 0.3%  
266 0% 0.2%  
267 0% 0.2%  
268 0% 0.2%  
269 0% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0.1% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
175 0% 100%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0.1% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.2% 99.8%  
181 0.1% 99.5%  
182 0.1% 99.5%  
183 0.1% 99.4%  
184 0.4% 99.4%  
185 0.2% 98.9%  
186 0.8% 98.8%  
187 0% 98%  
188 0% 98%  
189 0.1% 98%  
190 2% 98%  
191 0.1% 96%  
192 0.4% 96%  
193 0.1% 96%  
194 0.1% 96%  
195 1.3% 95%  
196 0% 94%  
197 0.8% 94%  
198 0.8% 93%  
199 0% 92%  
200 0.2% 92%  
201 0.7% 92%  
202 0.1% 91%  
203 2% 91%  
204 1.4% 89%  
205 1.1% 88%  
206 0.3% 87%  
207 0.8% 87%  
208 0.5% 86%  
209 0.1% 85%  
210 0.1% 85%  
211 0.1% 85%  
212 27% 85%  
213 0.1% 59%  
214 0.4% 58%  
215 8% 58%  
216 0.2% 50%  
217 2% 50% Median
218 0.8% 48%  
219 0.6% 47%  
220 0.2% 47%  
221 0.2% 46%  
222 2% 46%  
223 4% 44%  
224 0.2% 40%  
225 0.3% 40%  
226 0.3% 39%  
227 0.3% 39%  
228 1.2% 39%  
229 8% 38%  
230 1.0% 30%  
231 0.3% 29%  
232 0.4% 28%  
233 0.2% 28%  
234 6% 28%  
235 0.6% 22%  
236 1.1% 21%  
237 1.1% 20%  
238 0.3% 19%  
239 0.5% 19%  
240 0.1% 18%  
241 1.3% 18%  
242 4% 17%  
243 0.2% 13%  
244 0.2% 13%  
245 4% 12%  
246 4% 9%  
247 0.4% 4%  
248 0.2% 4%  
249 0% 4%  
250 0% 4%  
251 0.1% 4%  
252 0.1% 4%  
253 0.1% 4%  
254 1.4% 3%  
255 0.2% 2%  
256 0.1% 2%  
257 0.4% 2%  
258 0% 1.3%  
259 0.5% 1.3%  
260 0.2% 0.8%  
261 0.1% 0.6%  
262 0% 0.4% Last Result
263 0% 0.4%  
264 0.1% 0.4%  
265 0% 0.3%  
266 0% 0.2%  
267 0% 0.2%  
268 0% 0.2%  
269 0% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0.1% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0.1% 100%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.8%  
181 0.1% 99.7%  
182 0% 99.7%  
183 0% 99.7%  
184 0.4% 99.6%  
185 0.1% 99.2%  
186 0.8% 99.1%  
187 0.2% 98%  
188 0% 98%  
189 0.2% 98%  
190 2% 98%  
191 0.1% 96%  
192 0% 96%  
193 0.4% 96%  
194 0% 96%  
195 0.3% 96%  
196 0.8% 95%  
197 0.2% 94%  
198 2% 94%  
199 0% 92%  
200 0% 92%  
201 0.1% 92%  
202 0% 92%  
203 2% 92%  
204 0.3% 91%  
205 1.0% 90%  
206 0.8% 89%  
207 2% 89%  
208 0.2% 86%  
209 0.6% 86%  
210 0% 85%  
211 0% 85%  
212 11% 85%  
213 16% 75%  
214 0.2% 59%  
215 7% 59%  
216 0.6% 51%  
217 1.2% 51%  
218 0.6% 50% Median
219 0.9% 49%  
220 1.0% 48%  
221 0.5% 47%  
222 0.2% 47%  
223 0.5% 46%  
224 6% 46%  
225 0.3% 40%  
226 0.4% 40%  
227 0.3% 39%  
228 0.2% 39%  
229 2% 39%  
230 7% 37%  
231 0.3% 30%  
232 1.0% 30%  
233 0.2% 29%  
234 3% 29%  
235 0.6% 26%  
236 4% 25%  
237 0.1% 21%  
238 0.4% 21%  
239 1.2% 20%  
240 0.8% 19%  
241 1.2% 18%  
242 0.3% 17%  
243 4% 17%  
244 0.5% 13%  
245 0.2% 12%  
246 4% 12%  
247 4% 9%  
248 0.1% 4%  
249 0.1% 4%  
250 0.4% 4%  
251 0.3% 4%  
252 0% 4%  
253 0% 4%  
254 1.1% 4%  
255 0.5% 2%  
256 0.1% 2%  
257 0.4% 2%  
258 0.2% 2%  
259 0% 1.4%  
260 0.5% 1.3%  
261 0.3% 0.9%  
262 0% 0.6%  
263 0.1% 0.6%  
264 0% 0.4%  
265 0.2% 0.4%  
266 0% 0.3% Last Result
267 0.1% 0.2%  
268 0% 0.2%  
269 0% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations