Opinion Poll by Opinium for The Observer, 6–8 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 41.1% 39.7–42.5% 39.3–42.9% 38.9–43.3% 38.3–43.9%
Labour Party 41.0% 29.1% 27.8–30.4% 27.4–30.8% 27.1–31.1% 26.5–31.8%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 15.0% 14.1–16.1% 13.8–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.1–17.2%
Brexit Party 0.0% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.5%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4%
Green Party 1.7% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–3.0%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 346 333–356 326–360 323–367 308–375
Labour Party 262 190 179–202 173–206 170–213 159–222
Liberal Democrats 12 37 34–42 33–44 32–46 30–48
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 35 53 50–54 50–54 50–54 48–55
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 6 4–8 4–8 4–9 3–11
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.3% 99.9%  
308 0.3% 99.6%  
309 0% 99.3%  
310 0% 99.3%  
311 0.3% 99.2%  
312 0% 98.9%  
313 0% 98.9%  
314 0% 98.9%  
315 0.1% 98.9%  
316 0.1% 98.7%  
317 0.1% 98.6% Last Result
318 0.1% 98.5%  
319 0.2% 98%  
320 0.2% 98%  
321 0.2% 98%  
322 0.1% 98%  
323 0.3% 98%  
324 0.3% 97%  
325 2% 97%  
326 0.5% 95% Majority
327 0.6% 95%  
328 0.4% 94%  
329 0.6% 94%  
330 2% 93%  
331 1.0% 92%  
332 0.3% 91%  
333 12% 90%  
334 11% 78%  
335 0.4% 67%  
336 1.0% 67%  
337 0.3% 66%  
338 0.6% 66%  
339 0.2% 65%  
340 1.3% 65%  
341 1.2% 64%  
342 3% 62%  
343 4% 59%  
344 0.5% 55%  
345 3% 55%  
346 4% 52% Median
347 2% 48%  
348 1.2% 46%  
349 7% 45%  
350 2% 38%  
351 0.7% 35%  
352 14% 35%  
353 2% 20%  
354 3% 18%  
355 1.4% 15%  
356 5% 14%  
357 2% 9%  
358 1.0% 7%  
359 0.7% 6%  
360 1.0% 6%  
361 0.1% 4%  
362 1.1% 4%  
363 0.4% 3%  
364 0.2% 3%  
365 0.1% 3%  
366 0.1% 3%  
367 0.6% 3%  
368 0.3% 2%  
369 0.3% 2%  
370 0.4% 1.3%  
371 0% 0.9%  
372 0% 0.9%  
373 0% 0.9%  
374 0.1% 0.8%  
375 0.4% 0.7%  
376 0.1% 0.3%  
377 0% 0.3%  
378 0% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.3%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0.1% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.8%  
156 0% 99.8%  
157 0% 99.8%  
158 0% 99.8%  
159 0.4% 99.8%  
160 0% 99.4%  
161 0.1% 99.4%  
162 0% 99.3%  
163 0% 99.2%  
164 0% 99.2%  
165 0.2% 99.2%  
166 0.2% 99.0%  
167 0.3% 98.8%  
168 0.1% 98.5%  
169 0.4% 98%  
170 0.7% 98%  
171 1.1% 97%  
172 0.9% 96%  
173 0.7% 95%  
174 0.4% 95%  
175 0.2% 94%  
176 0.5% 94%  
177 0.5% 94%  
178 2% 93%  
179 2% 92%  
180 1.5% 90%  
181 12% 88%  
182 5% 76%  
183 2% 71%  
184 7% 69%  
185 6% 62%  
186 2% 56%  
187 0.6% 54%  
188 0.6% 53%  
189 1.4% 53%  
190 4% 51% Median
191 0.5% 47%  
192 0.7% 47%  
193 8% 46%  
194 2% 39%  
195 2% 36%  
196 0.2% 34%  
197 1.3% 34%  
198 1.3% 33%  
199 12% 32%  
200 0.7% 20%  
201 0.5% 19%  
202 11% 18%  
203 0.3% 7%  
204 1.1% 7%  
205 0.4% 6%  
206 1.3% 5%  
207 0.3% 4%  
208 0% 4%  
209 0.3% 4%  
210 0% 4%  
211 0.1% 3%  
212 0.1% 3%  
213 2% 3%  
214 0.2% 2%  
215 0.3% 2%  
216 0.1% 1.4%  
217 0.1% 1.3%  
218 0.1% 1.3%  
219 0.1% 1.1%  
220 0.4% 1.0%  
221 0.2% 0.7%  
222 0.4% 0.5%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.5% 99.9%  
31 1.5% 99.4%  
32 2% 98%  
33 2% 96%  
34 6% 94%  
35 12% 88%  
36 8% 76%  
37 20% 68% Median
38 2% 48%  
39 10% 46%  
40 15% 36%  
41 8% 21%  
42 3% 13%  
43 5% 10%  
44 1.2% 5%  
45 1.1% 4%  
46 1.3% 3%  
47 1.0% 2%  
48 0.6% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.5% 99.8%  
49 0% 99.3%  
50 10% 99.3%  
51 18% 90%  
52 9% 71%  
53 41% 62% Median
54 19% 21%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.7% 100%  
4 33% 99.3% Last Result
5 11% 66%  
6 16% 55% Median
7 2% 39%  
8 33% 37%  
9 2% 4%  
10 1.5% 2%  
11 0.8% 0.9%  
12 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 404 100% 390–415 384–419 381–423 365–435
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 399 100% 386–409 379–412 376–418 361–429
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 383 100% 372–394 367–397 362–402 352–412
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 383 100% 372–394 367–397 362–402 352–412
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 351 98% 338–362 331–367 328–372 312–381
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 346 95% 333–356 326–360 323–367 308–375
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 346 95% 333–356 326–360 323–367 308–375
Conservative Party 317 346 95% 333–356 326–360 323–367 308–375
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 314 286 0.1% 276–299 272–306 265–309 257–324
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 285 0.1% 275–298 271–305 264–308 256–323
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 280 0% 269–293 264–300 259–303 250–319
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 248 0% 237–259 234–264 229–269 219–279
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 243 0% 232–254 226–260 222–264 213–274
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 232 0% 222–245 219–252 213–255 202–270
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 227 0% 216–241 212–247 208–250 196–266
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 227 0% 216–241 212–247 208–250 196–266
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 194 0% 186–207 181–210 177–218 165–226
Labour Party – Change UK 262 190 0% 179–202 173–206 170–213 159–222
Labour Party 262 190 0% 179–202 173–206 170–213 159–222

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100% Last Result
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.2% 99.9%  
365 0.3% 99.6%  
366 0.1% 99.3%  
367 0% 99.3%  
368 0% 99.2%  
369 0% 99.2%  
370 0.1% 99.2%  
371 0.1% 99.0%  
372 0.2% 99.0%  
373 0% 98.8%  
374 0.1% 98.7%  
375 0.1% 98.6%  
376 0.2% 98%  
377 0.1% 98%  
378 0.1% 98%  
379 0.2% 98%  
380 0.3% 98%  
381 2% 98%  
382 0.2% 96%  
383 0.6% 96%  
384 0.7% 95%  
385 0.3% 94%  
386 0.2% 94%  
387 0.2% 94%  
388 0.3% 94%  
389 3% 93%  
390 10% 91%  
391 0.8% 81%  
392 11% 81%  
393 0.4% 69%  
394 0.5% 69%  
395 2% 68%  
396 0.6% 66%  
397 1.0% 66%  
398 2% 65%  
399 0.6% 63%  
400 0.4% 62%  
401 0.4% 62%  
402 2% 61%  
403 2% 59%  
404 11% 57%  
405 4% 46% Median
406 2% 42%  
407 2% 40%  
408 3% 38%  
409 2% 36%  
410 0.5% 34%  
411 7% 33%  
412 3% 26%  
413 11% 24%  
414 1.4% 13%  
415 2% 11%  
416 0.3% 9%  
417 2% 9%  
418 0.5% 7%  
419 1.2% 6%  
420 1.2% 5%  
421 0.1% 4%  
422 0.2% 4%  
423 1.2% 3%  
424 0.1% 2%  
425 0.1% 2%  
426 0.2% 2%  
427 0.1% 2%  
428 0.3% 2%  
429 0.2% 1.5%  
430 0.3% 1.3%  
431 0% 1.0%  
432 0% 1.0%  
433 0.2% 0.9%  
434 0.1% 0.8%  
435 0.4% 0.7%  
436 0% 0.3%  
437 0% 0.3%  
438 0% 0.3%  
439 0% 0.2%  
440 0% 0.2%  
441 0.1% 0.2%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100% Last Result
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0.3% 99.9%  
361 0.3% 99.6%  
362 0.1% 99.3%  
363 0% 99.2%  
364 0.2% 99.2%  
365 0% 99.0%  
366 0% 98.9%  
367 0% 98.9%  
368 0.1% 98.9%  
369 0.1% 98.7%  
370 0.2% 98.7%  
371 0.2% 98%  
372 0.2% 98%  
373 0.2% 98%  
374 0.2% 98%  
375 0.2% 98%  
376 2% 98%  
377 0.2% 96%  
378 0.2% 96%  
379 0.6% 95%  
380 0.7% 95%  
381 2% 94%  
382 0.5% 92%  
383 0.3% 92%  
384 0.2% 92%  
385 1.2% 91%  
386 21% 90%  
387 2% 69%  
388 0.8% 67%  
389 0.9% 67%  
390 0.1% 66%  
391 1.0% 66%  
392 0.6% 65%  
393 2% 64%  
394 2% 62%  
395 0.6% 60%  
396 3% 59%  
397 3% 57%  
398 3% 54%  
399 6% 50% Median
400 5% 44%  
401 3% 39%  
402 1.1% 37%  
403 1.0% 36%  
404 0.6% 35%  
405 15% 34%  
406 0.6% 19%  
407 5% 18%  
408 3% 13%  
409 1.3% 11%  
410 3% 9%  
411 1.2% 7%  
412 0.5% 5%  
413 0.9% 5%  
414 0.4% 4%  
415 0.2% 4%  
416 0.7% 3%  
417 0.1% 3%  
418 0.7% 3%  
419 0% 2%  
420 0.3% 2%  
421 0.4% 2%  
422 0.3% 1.2%  
423 0% 0.9%  
424 0% 0.9%  
425 0% 0.8%  
426 0.1% 0.8%  
427 0% 0.7%  
428 0.1% 0.7%  
429 0.4% 0.6%  
430 0% 0.3%  
431 0% 0.2%  
432 0% 0.2%  
433 0% 0.2%  
434 0.1% 0.2%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0.2% 99.9%  
352 0.3% 99.6%  
353 0.1% 99.3%  
354 0.4% 99.2%  
355 0% 98.8%  
356 0.2% 98.8%  
357 0.1% 98.6%  
358 0% 98.6%  
359 0.3% 98.5%  
360 0.1% 98%  
361 0.2% 98%  
362 1.4% 98%  
363 0.4% 97%  
364 0.1% 96%  
365 0.1% 96%  
366 0.5% 96%  
367 1.1% 96%  
368 0.3% 94%  
369 0.6% 94%  
370 3% 94%  
371 0.7% 91%  
372 0.9% 90%  
373 21% 89%  
374 0.9% 69%  
375 2% 68%  
376 0.7% 66%  
377 1.1% 65%  
378 2% 64%  
379 0.3% 62%  
380 3% 62%  
381 0.7% 58%  
382 0.3% 58%  
383 9% 57% Median
384 2% 48%  
385 3% 46%  
386 2% 42%  
387 5% 41%  
388 2% 36%  
389 12% 34%  
390 3% 22%  
391 3% 19%  
392 6% 17%  
393 0.6% 11%  
394 2% 10%  
395 1.5% 8%  
396 2% 7%  
397 1.2% 5%  
398 0.2% 4%  
399 0.5% 4%  
400 0.5% 3%  
401 0.2% 3%  
402 0.5% 3%  
403 0.3% 2%  
404 0.7% 2%  
405 0.2% 1.2%  
406 0.1% 1.0%  
407 0.2% 1.0%  
408 0% 0.8%  
409 0.1% 0.8%  
410 0.1% 0.7%  
411 0% 0.6%  
412 0.4% 0.6%  
413 0% 0.3%  
414 0.1% 0.2%  
415 0% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0.1% 0.1%  
423 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0.2% 99.9%  
352 0.3% 99.6%  
353 0.1% 99.3%  
354 0.4% 99.2%  
355 0% 98.8%  
356 0.2% 98.8%  
357 0.1% 98.6%  
358 0% 98.6%  
359 0.3% 98.5%  
360 0.1% 98%  
361 0.2% 98%  
362 1.4% 98%  
363 0.4% 97%  
364 0.1% 96%  
365 0.1% 96%  
366 0.5% 96%  
367 1.1% 96%  
368 0.3% 94%  
369 0.6% 94%  
370 3% 94%  
371 0.7% 91%  
372 0.9% 90%  
373 21% 89%  
374 0.9% 69%  
375 2% 68%  
376 0.7% 66%  
377 1.1% 65%  
378 2% 64%  
379 0.3% 62%  
380 3% 62%  
381 0.7% 58%  
382 0.3% 58%  
383 9% 57% Median
384 2% 48%  
385 3% 46%  
386 2% 42%  
387 5% 41%  
388 2% 36%  
389 12% 34%  
390 3% 22%  
391 3% 19%  
392 6% 17%  
393 0.6% 11%  
394 2% 10%  
395 1.5% 8%  
396 2% 7%  
397 1.2% 5%  
398 0.2% 4%  
399 0.5% 4%  
400 0.5% 3%  
401 0.2% 3%  
402 0.5% 3%  
403 0.3% 2%  
404 0.7% 2%  
405 0.2% 1.2%  
406 0.1% 1.0%  
407 0.2% 1.0%  
408 0% 0.8%  
409 0.1% 0.8%  
410 0.1% 0.7%  
411 0% 0.6%  
412 0.4% 0.6%  
413 0% 0.3%  
414 0.1% 0.2%  
415 0% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0.1% 0.1%  
423 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0.3% 99.9%  
312 0.3% 99.6%  
313 0% 99.3%  
314 0% 99.3%  
315 0.1% 99.3%  
316 0% 99.2%  
317 0.1% 99.2%  
318 0.1% 99.0%  
319 0.2% 99.0%  
320 0.1% 98.8%  
321 0.1% 98.7% Last Result
322 0.1% 98.6%  
323 0.1% 98%  
324 0.1% 98%  
325 0.1% 98%  
326 0.1% 98% Majority
327 0.3% 98%  
328 0.4% 98%  
329 0.2% 97%  
330 2% 97%  
331 0.5% 95%  
332 0.4% 95%  
333 0.4% 94%  
334 0.4% 94%  
335 0.9% 94%  
336 0.2% 93%  
337 1.1% 92%  
338 11% 91%  
339 11% 81%  
340 0.4% 69%  
341 0.2% 69%  
342 2% 69%  
343 0.2% 67%  
344 2% 67%  
345 2% 65%  
346 0.5% 64%  
347 1.0% 63%  
348 0.3% 62%  
349 0.3% 62%  
350 7% 62%  
351 5% 55%  
352 0.2% 50% Median
353 2% 50%  
354 8% 48%  
355 2% 40%  
356 2% 37%  
357 2% 36%  
358 6% 34%  
359 0.9% 28%  
360 14% 27%  
361 2% 13%  
362 1.3% 11%  
363 0.9% 10%  
364 0.8% 9%  
365 1.2% 8%  
366 2% 7%  
367 1.0% 5%  
368 0.6% 4%  
369 0.6% 4%  
370 0.2% 3%  
371 0.1% 3%  
372 0.8% 3%  
373 0% 2%  
374 0.1% 2%  
375 0.1% 2%  
376 0.2% 2%  
377 0.3% 2%  
378 0.2% 1.4%  
379 0.4% 1.2%  
380 0% 0.8%  
381 0.4% 0.8%  
382 0% 0.4%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0% 0.3%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0.1% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.3% 99.9%  
308 0.3% 99.6%  
309 0% 99.3%  
310 0% 99.3%  
311 0.3% 99.2%  
312 0% 98.9%  
313 0% 98.9%  
314 0% 98.9%  
315 0.1% 98.9%  
316 0.1% 98.7%  
317 0.1% 98.6% Last Result
318 0.1% 98.5%  
319 0.2% 98%  
320 0.2% 98%  
321 0.2% 98%  
322 0.1% 98%  
323 0.3% 98%  
324 0.3% 97%  
325 2% 97%  
326 0.5% 95% Majority
327 0.6% 95%  
328 0.4% 94%  
329 0.6% 94%  
330 2% 93%  
331 1.0% 92%  
332 0.3% 91%  
333 12% 90%  
334 11% 78%  
335 0.4% 67%  
336 1.0% 67%  
337 0.3% 66%  
338 0.6% 66%  
339 0.2% 65%  
340 1.3% 65%  
341 1.2% 64%  
342 3% 62%  
343 4% 59%  
344 0.5% 55%  
345 3% 55%  
346 4% 52% Median
347 2% 48%  
348 1.2% 46%  
349 7% 45%  
350 2% 38%  
351 0.7% 35%  
352 14% 35%  
353 2% 20%  
354 3% 18%  
355 1.4% 15%  
356 5% 14%  
357 2% 9%  
358 1.0% 7%  
359 0.7% 6%  
360 1.0% 6%  
361 0.1% 4%  
362 1.1% 4%  
363 0.4% 3%  
364 0.2% 3%  
365 0.1% 3%  
366 0.1% 3%  
367 0.6% 3%  
368 0.3% 2%  
369 0.3% 2%  
370 0.4% 1.3%  
371 0% 0.9%  
372 0% 0.9%  
373 0% 0.9%  
374 0.1% 0.8%  
375 0.4% 0.7%  
376 0.1% 0.3%  
377 0% 0.3%  
378 0% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.3%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.3% 99.9%  
308 0.3% 99.6%  
309 0% 99.3%  
310 0% 99.3%  
311 0.3% 99.2%  
312 0% 98.9%  
313 0% 98.9%  
314 0% 98.9%  
315 0.1% 98.9%  
316 0.1% 98.7%  
317 0.1% 98.6% Last Result
318 0.1% 98.5%  
319 0.2% 98%  
320 0.2% 98%  
321 0.2% 98%  
322 0.1% 98%  
323 0.3% 98%  
324 0.3% 97%  
325 2% 97%  
326 0.5% 95% Majority
327 0.6% 95%  
328 0.4% 94%  
329 0.6% 94%  
330 2% 93%  
331 1.0% 92%  
332 0.3% 91%  
333 12% 90%  
334 11% 78%  
335 0.4% 67%  
336 1.0% 67%  
337 0.3% 66%  
338 0.6% 66%  
339 0.2% 65%  
340 1.3% 65%  
341 1.2% 64%  
342 3% 62%  
343 4% 59%  
344 0.5% 55%  
345 3% 55%  
346 4% 52% Median
347 2% 48%  
348 1.2% 46%  
349 7% 45%  
350 2% 38%  
351 0.7% 35%  
352 14% 35%  
353 2% 20%  
354 3% 18%  
355 1.4% 15%  
356 5% 14%  
357 2% 9%  
358 1.0% 7%  
359 0.7% 6%  
360 1.0% 6%  
361 0.1% 4%  
362 1.1% 4%  
363 0.4% 3%  
364 0.2% 3%  
365 0.1% 3%  
366 0.1% 3%  
367 0.6% 3%  
368 0.3% 2%  
369 0.3% 2%  
370 0.4% 1.3%  
371 0% 0.9%  
372 0% 0.9%  
373 0% 0.9%  
374 0.1% 0.8%  
375 0.4% 0.7%  
376 0.1% 0.3%  
377 0% 0.3%  
378 0% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.3%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.3% 99.9%  
308 0.3% 99.6%  
309 0% 99.3%  
310 0% 99.3%  
311 0.3% 99.2%  
312 0% 98.9%  
313 0% 98.9%  
314 0% 98.9%  
315 0.1% 98.9%  
316 0.1% 98.7%  
317 0.1% 98.6% Last Result
318 0.1% 98.5%  
319 0.2% 98%  
320 0.2% 98%  
321 0.2% 98%  
322 0.1% 98%  
323 0.3% 98%  
324 0.3% 97%  
325 2% 97%  
326 0.5% 95% Majority
327 0.6% 95%  
328 0.4% 94%  
329 0.6% 94%  
330 2% 93%  
331 1.0% 92%  
332 0.3% 91%  
333 12% 90%  
334 11% 78%  
335 0.4% 67%  
336 1.0% 67%  
337 0.3% 66%  
338 0.6% 66%  
339 0.2% 65%  
340 1.3% 65%  
341 1.2% 64%  
342 3% 62%  
343 4% 59%  
344 0.5% 55%  
345 3% 55%  
346 4% 52% Median
347 2% 48%  
348 1.2% 46%  
349 7% 45%  
350 2% 38%  
351 0.7% 35%  
352 14% 35%  
353 2% 20%  
354 3% 18%  
355 1.4% 15%  
356 5% 14%  
357 2% 9%  
358 1.0% 7%  
359 0.7% 6%  
360 1.0% 6%  
361 0.1% 4%  
362 1.1% 4%  
363 0.4% 3%  
364 0.2% 3%  
365 0.1% 3%  
366 0.1% 3%  
367 0.6% 3%  
368 0.3% 2%  
369 0.3% 2%  
370 0.4% 1.3%  
371 0% 0.9%  
372 0% 0.9%  
373 0% 0.9%  
374 0.1% 0.8%  
375 0.4% 0.7%  
376 0.1% 0.3%  
377 0% 0.3%  
378 0% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.3%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0% 99.8%  
253 0% 99.8%  
254 0% 99.7%  
255 0% 99.7%  
256 0.1% 99.7%  
257 0.4% 99.7%  
258 0.1% 99.3%  
259 0% 99.2%  
260 0% 99.1%  
261 0% 99.1%  
262 0.4% 99.1%  
263 0.3% 98.7%  
264 0.3% 98%  
265 0.6% 98%  
266 0.1% 97%  
267 0.1% 97%  
268 0.2% 97%  
269 0.4% 97%  
270 1.1% 97%  
271 0.1% 96%  
272 1.0% 96%  
273 0.7% 94%  
274 1.0% 94%  
275 2% 93%  
276 5% 91%  
277 1.4% 86%  
278 3% 85%  
279 2% 82%  
280 14% 80%  
281 0.7% 65%  
282 2% 65%  
283 7% 62%  
284 1.2% 55%  
285 2% 54%  
286 4% 52%  
287 3% 48% Median
288 0.5% 45%  
289 4% 45%  
290 3% 41%  
291 1.2% 38%  
292 1.3% 36%  
293 0.2% 35%  
294 0.6% 35%  
295 0.3% 34%  
296 1.0% 34%  
297 0.4% 33%  
298 11% 33%  
299 12% 22%  
300 0.3% 10%  
301 1.0% 9%  
302 2% 8%  
303 0.6% 7%  
304 0.4% 6%  
305 0.6% 6%  
306 0.5% 5%  
307 2% 5%  
308 0.3% 3%  
309 0.3% 3%  
310 0.1% 2%  
311 0.2% 2%  
312 0.2% 2%  
313 0.2% 2%  
314 0.1% 2% Last Result
315 0.1% 1.5%  
316 0.1% 1.4%  
317 0.1% 1.3%  
318 0% 1.1%  
319 0% 1.1%  
320 0% 1.1%  
321 0.3% 1.1%  
322 0% 0.8%  
323 0% 0.7%  
324 0.3% 0.7%  
325 0.3% 0.4%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0% 99.8%  
253 0% 99.7%  
254 0% 99.7%  
255 0.1% 99.7%  
256 0.4% 99.7%  
257 0.1% 99.3%  
258 0% 99.2%  
259 0% 99.1%  
260 0% 99.1%  
261 0.4% 99.1%  
262 0.3% 98.7%  
263 0.3% 98%  
264 0.6% 98%  
265 0.1% 97%  
266 0.1% 97%  
267 0.2% 97%  
268 0.4% 97%  
269 1.1% 97%  
270 0.1% 96%  
271 1.0% 96%  
272 0.7% 94%  
273 1.0% 94%  
274 2% 93%  
275 5% 91%  
276 1.4% 86%  
277 3% 85%  
278 2% 82%  
279 14% 80%  
280 0.7% 65%  
281 2% 65%  
282 7% 62%  
283 1.2% 55%  
284 2% 54%  
285 4% 52%  
286 3% 48% Median
287 0.5% 45%  
288 4% 45%  
289 3% 41%  
290 1.2% 38%  
291 1.3% 36%  
292 0.2% 35%  
293 0.6% 35%  
294 0.3% 34%  
295 1.0% 34%  
296 0.4% 33%  
297 11% 33%  
298 12% 22%  
299 0.3% 10%  
300 1.0% 9%  
301 2% 8%  
302 0.6% 7%  
303 0.4% 6%  
304 0.6% 6%  
305 0.5% 5%  
306 2% 5%  
307 0.3% 3%  
308 0.3% 3%  
309 0.1% 2%  
310 0.2% 2%  
311 0.2% 2%  
312 0.2% 2%  
313 0.1% 2% Last Result
314 0.1% 1.5%  
315 0.1% 1.4%  
316 0.1% 1.3%  
317 0% 1.1%  
318 0% 1.1%  
319 0% 1.1%  
320 0.3% 1.1%  
321 0% 0.8%  
322 0% 0.7%  
323 0.3% 0.7%  
324 0.3% 0.4%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.8%  
244 0% 99.8%  
245 0% 99.8%  
246 0% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.7%  
248 0.1% 99.7%  
249 0% 99.6%  
250 0.4% 99.6%  
251 0% 99.2%  
252 0.4% 99.2%  
253 0.2% 98.8%  
254 0.3% 98.6%  
255 0.2% 98%  
256 0.1% 98%  
257 0.1% 98%  
258 0% 98%  
259 0.8% 98%  
260 0.1% 97%  
261 0.2% 97%  
262 0.6% 97%  
263 0.6% 96%  
264 1.0% 96%  
265 2% 95%  
266 1.2% 93%  
267 0.8% 92%  
268 0.9% 91%  
269 1.3% 90%  
270 2% 89%  
271 14% 87%  
272 0.9% 73%  
273 6% 72%  
274 2% 66%  
275 2% 64%  
276 2% 63%  
277 8% 60%  
278 2% 52%  
279 0.2% 50%  
280 5% 50% Median
281 7% 45%  
282 0.3% 38%  
283 0.3% 38%  
284 1.0% 38%  
285 0.5% 37%  
286 2% 36%  
287 2% 35%  
288 0.2% 33%  
289 2% 33%  
290 0.2% 31%  
291 0.4% 31%  
292 11% 31%  
293 11% 19%  
294 1.1% 9%  
295 0.2% 8%  
296 0.9% 7%  
297 0.4% 6%  
298 0.4% 6%  
299 0.4% 6%  
300 0.5% 5%  
301 2% 5%  
302 0.2% 3%  
303 0.4% 3%  
304 0.3% 2%  
305 0.1% 2%  
306 0.1% 2%  
307 0.1% 2%  
308 0.1% 2%  
309 0.1% 2% Last Result
310 0.1% 1.4%  
311 0.1% 1.3%  
312 0.2% 1.2%  
313 0.1% 1.0%  
314 0.1% 1.0%  
315 0% 0.8%  
316 0.1% 0.8%  
317 0% 0.7%  
318 0% 0.7%  
319 0.3% 0.7%  
320 0.3% 0.4%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
209 0.1% 100%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.8%  
215 0% 99.8%  
216 0% 99.8%  
217 0.1% 99.8%  
218 0% 99.8%  
219 0.4% 99.7%  
220 0% 99.4%  
221 0.1% 99.4%  
222 0.1% 99.3%  
223 0% 99.2%  
224 0.2% 99.2%  
225 0.1% 99.0%  
226 0.2% 99.0%  
227 0.7% 98.8%  
228 0.3% 98%  
229 0.5% 98%  
230 0.2% 97%  
231 0.5% 97%  
232 0.5% 97%  
233 0.2% 96%  
234 1.2% 96%  
235 2% 95%  
236 1.5% 93%  
237 2% 92%  
238 0.6% 90%  
239 6% 89%  
240 3% 83%  
241 3% 81%  
242 12% 78%  
243 2% 66%  
244 5% 64%  
245 2% 59%  
246 3% 58%  
247 2% 54%  
248 9% 52%  
249 0.3% 43% Median
250 0.7% 42%  
251 3% 42%  
252 0.3% 38%  
253 2% 38%  
254 1.1% 36%  
255 0.7% 35%  
256 2% 34%  
257 0.9% 32%  
258 21% 31%  
259 0.9% 11%  
260 0.7% 10%  
261 3% 9%  
262 0.6% 6%  
263 0.3% 6%  
264 1.1% 6%  
265 0.5% 4%  
266 0.1% 4%  
267 0.1% 4%  
268 0.4% 4%  
269 1.4% 3%  
270 0.2% 2%  
271 0.1% 2%  
272 0.3% 2%  
273 0% 1.5%  
274 0.1% 1.4%  
275 0.2% 1.4%  
276 0% 1.2%  
277 0.4% 1.2%  
278 0.1% 0.8%  
279 0.3% 0.7%  
280 0.2% 0.4%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0.1% 100%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0% 99.9%  
207 0% 99.8%  
208 0% 99.8%  
209 0% 99.8%  
210 0% 99.8%  
211 0% 99.8%  
212 0% 99.7%  
213 0.4% 99.7%  
214 0.1% 99.3%  
215 0.1% 99.3%  
216 0.1% 99.2%  
217 0% 99.1%  
218 0.2% 99.0%  
219 0.2% 98.9%  
220 0.4% 98.7%  
221 0.3% 98%  
222 0.7% 98%  
223 0.2% 97%  
224 0.9% 97%  
225 0.6% 96%  
226 0.9% 96%  
227 0.6% 95%  
228 1.1% 94%  
229 0.4% 93%  
230 0.4% 93%  
231 0.8% 92%  
232 2% 91%  
233 3% 89%  
234 11% 86%  
235 7% 75%  
236 4% 68%  
237 2% 64%  
238 6% 63%  
239 3% 57%  
240 2% 54%  
241 0.4% 52%  
242 0.6% 52%  
243 7% 51% Median
244 3% 44%  
245 3% 41%  
246 2% 38%  
247 0.5% 36%  
248 1.4% 36%  
249 1.2% 34%  
250 1.1% 33%  
251 0.7% 32%  
252 12% 31%  
253 2% 19%  
254 10% 17%  
255 0.8% 8%  
256 0.2% 7%  
257 1.2% 7%  
258 0.5% 6%  
259 0.1% 5%  
260 1.1% 5%  
261 0.3% 4%  
262 0.1% 4%  
263 0.1% 4%  
264 2% 3%  
265 0% 2%  
266 0.2% 2%  
267 0.2% 2%  
268 0.2% 2%  
269 0% 1.4%  
270 0.1% 1.4%  
271 0.1% 1.3%  
272 0.1% 1.1%  
273 0.4% 1.0%  
274 0.2% 0.6%  
275 0.3% 0.5%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0.1% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.8%  
199 0% 99.8%  
200 0% 99.8%  
201 0% 99.8%  
202 0.4% 99.7%  
203 0.1% 99.4%  
204 0% 99.3%  
205 0.1% 99.3%  
206 0% 99.2%  
207 0% 99.2%  
208 0% 99.1%  
209 0.3% 99.1%  
210 0.4% 98.8%  
211 0.3% 98%  
212 0% 98%  
213 0.7% 98%  
214 0.1% 97%  
215 0.7% 97%  
216 0.2% 97%  
217 0.4% 96%  
218 0.9% 96%  
219 0.5% 95%  
220 1.2% 95%  
221 3% 93%  
222 1.3% 91%  
223 3% 89%  
224 5% 87%  
225 0.6% 82%  
226 15% 81%  
227 0.6% 66%  
228 1.0% 65%  
229 1.1% 64%  
230 3% 63%  
231 5% 61%  
232 6% 56%  
233 3% 50% Median
234 3% 46%  
235 3% 43%  
236 0.6% 41%  
237 2% 40%  
238 2% 38%  
239 0.6% 36%  
240 1.0% 35%  
241 0.1% 34%  
242 0.9% 34%  
243 0.8% 33%  
244 2% 33%  
245 21% 31%  
246 1.2% 10%  
247 0.2% 9%  
248 0.3% 8%  
249 0.5% 8%  
250 2% 8%  
251 0.7% 6%  
252 0.6% 5%  
253 0.2% 5%  
254 0.2% 4%  
255 2% 4%  
256 0.2% 2%  
257 0.2% 2%  
258 0.2% 2%  
259 0.2% 2%  
260 0.2% 2%  
261 0.2% 2%  
262 0.1% 1.3%  
263 0.1% 1.3%  
264 0% 1.1%  
265 0% 1.1%  
266 0% 1.1%  
267 0.2% 1.0%  
268 0% 0.8%  
269 0.1% 0.8%  
270 0.3% 0.7%  
271 0.3% 0.4%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
185 0% 100%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0.1% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.8%  
192 0% 99.8%  
193 0% 99.8%  
194 0% 99.7%  
195 0% 99.7%  
196 0.4% 99.7%  
197 0.1% 99.3%  
198 0.2% 99.2%  
199 0% 99.1%  
200 0% 99.0%  
201 0.3% 99.0%  
202 0.2% 98.7%  
203 0.3% 98.5%  
204 0.1% 98%  
205 0.2% 98%  
206 0.1% 98%  
207 0.1% 98%  
208 1.2% 98%  
209 0.2% 97%  
210 0.1% 96%  
211 1.2% 96%  
212 1.2% 95%  
213 0.5% 94%  
214 2% 93%  
215 0.3% 91%  
216 2% 91%  
217 1.4% 89%  
218 11% 87%  
219 3% 76%  
220 7% 74%  
221 0.5% 67%  
222 2% 66%  
223 3% 64%  
224 2% 62%  
225 2% 60%  
226 4% 58%  
227 11% 54% Median
228 2% 43%  
229 2% 41%  
230 0.4% 39%  
231 0.4% 38%  
232 0.6% 38%  
233 2% 37%  
234 1.0% 35%  
235 0.6% 34%  
236 2% 34%  
237 0.5% 32%  
238 0.4% 31%  
239 11% 31%  
240 0.8% 19%  
241 10% 19%  
242 3% 9%  
243 0.3% 7%  
244 0.2% 6%  
245 0.2% 6%  
246 0.3% 6%  
247 0.7% 6%  
248 0.6% 5%  
249 0.2% 4%  
250 2% 4%  
251 0.3% 2%  
252 0.2% 2%  
253 0.1% 2%  
254 0.1% 2%  
255 0.2% 2%  
256 0.1% 2%  
257 0.1% 1.4%  
258 0% 1.3%  
259 0.2% 1.2%  
260 0.1% 1.0%  
261 0.1% 1.0%  
262 0% 0.8%  
263 0% 0.8%  
264 0% 0.8%  
265 0.1% 0.7%  
266 0.3% 0.7%  
267 0.2% 0.4%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
185 0% 100%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0.1% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.8%  
192 0% 99.8%  
193 0% 99.8%  
194 0% 99.7%  
195 0% 99.7%  
196 0.4% 99.7%  
197 0.1% 99.3%  
198 0.2% 99.2%  
199 0% 99.1%  
200 0% 99.0%  
201 0.3% 99.0%  
202 0.2% 98.7%  
203 0.3% 98.5%  
204 0.1% 98%  
205 0.2% 98%  
206 0.1% 98%  
207 0.1% 98%  
208 1.2% 98%  
209 0.2% 97%  
210 0.1% 96%  
211 1.2% 96%  
212 1.2% 95%  
213 0.5% 94%  
214 2% 93%  
215 0.3% 91%  
216 2% 91%  
217 1.4% 89%  
218 11% 87%  
219 3% 76%  
220 7% 74%  
221 0.5% 67%  
222 2% 66%  
223 3% 64%  
224 2% 62%  
225 2% 60%  
226 4% 58%  
227 11% 54% Median
228 2% 43%  
229 2% 41%  
230 0.4% 39%  
231 0.4% 38%  
232 0.6% 38%  
233 2% 37%  
234 1.0% 35%  
235 0.6% 34%  
236 2% 34%  
237 0.5% 32%  
238 0.4% 31%  
239 11% 31%  
240 0.8% 19%  
241 10% 19%  
242 3% 9%  
243 0.3% 7%  
244 0.2% 6%  
245 0.2% 6%  
246 0.3% 6%  
247 0.7% 6%  
248 0.6% 5%  
249 0.2% 4%  
250 2% 4%  
251 0.3% 2%  
252 0.2% 2%  
253 0.1% 2%  
254 0.1% 2%  
255 0.2% 2%  
256 0.1% 2%  
257 0.1% 1.4%  
258 0% 1.3%  
259 0.2% 1.2%  
260 0.1% 1.0%  
261 0.1% 1.0%  
262 0% 0.8%  
263 0% 0.8%  
264 0% 0.8%  
265 0.1% 0.7%  
266 0.3% 0.7%  
267 0.2% 0.4%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
157 0.1% 100%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.8%  
165 0.4% 99.8%  
166 0% 99.4%  
167 0% 99.4%  
168 0% 99.4%  
169 0.1% 99.3%  
170 0.1% 99.3%  
171 0.1% 99.2%  
172 0% 99.2%  
173 0.1% 99.1%  
174 0.2% 99.1%  
175 0.2% 98.8%  
176 0.8% 98.6%  
177 0.6% 98%  
178 0.5% 97%  
179 0.1% 97%  
180 0.9% 97%  
181 1.2% 96%  
182 1.2% 95%  
183 0.8% 93%  
184 1.1% 93%  
185 1.4% 91%  
186 3% 90%  
187 2% 87%  
188 5% 85%  
189 12% 79%  
190 4% 68%  
191 4% 64%  
192 3% 60%  
193 4% 57%  
194 4% 54%  
195 0.9% 50%  
196 0.5% 49% Median
197 0.9% 49%  
198 9% 48%  
199 0.1% 39%  
200 0.1% 38%  
201 1.3% 38%  
202 3% 37%  
203 2% 34%  
204 0.7% 32%  
205 11% 32%  
206 10% 20%  
207 1.0% 11%  
208 2% 10%  
209 0.6% 8%  
210 3% 7%  
211 0.3% 5%  
212 0.2% 4%  
213 0.1% 4%  
214 0% 4%  
215 0.2% 4%  
216 0.1% 4%  
217 0.3% 4%  
218 1.4% 3%  
219 0.3% 2%  
220 0.1% 2%  
221 0.1% 1.5%  
222 0.2% 1.3%  
223 0% 1.2%  
224 0.4% 1.2%  
225 0% 0.8%  
226 0.4% 0.8%  
227 0.2% 0.4%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0.1% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.8%  
156 0% 99.8%  
157 0% 99.8%  
158 0% 99.8%  
159 0.4% 99.8%  
160 0% 99.4%  
161 0.1% 99.4%  
162 0% 99.3%  
163 0% 99.2%  
164 0% 99.2%  
165 0.2% 99.2%  
166 0.2% 99.0%  
167 0.3% 98.8%  
168 0.1% 98.5%  
169 0.4% 98%  
170 0.7% 98%  
171 1.1% 97%  
172 0.9% 96%  
173 0.7% 95%  
174 0.4% 95%  
175 0.2% 94%  
176 0.5% 94%  
177 0.5% 94%  
178 2% 93%  
179 2% 92%  
180 1.5% 90%  
181 12% 88%  
182 5% 76%  
183 2% 71%  
184 7% 69%  
185 6% 62%  
186 2% 56%  
187 0.6% 54%  
188 0.6% 53%  
189 1.4% 53%  
190 4% 51% Median
191 0.5% 47%  
192 0.7% 47%  
193 8% 46%  
194 2% 39%  
195 2% 36%  
196 0.2% 34%  
197 1.3% 34%  
198 1.3% 33%  
199 12% 32%  
200 0.7% 20%  
201 0.5% 19%  
202 11% 18%  
203 0.3% 7%  
204 1.1% 7%  
205 0.4% 6%  
206 1.3% 5%  
207 0.3% 4%  
208 0% 4%  
209 0.3% 4%  
210 0% 4%  
211 0.1% 3%  
212 0.1% 3%  
213 2% 3%  
214 0.2% 2%  
215 0.3% 2%  
216 0.1% 1.4%  
217 0.1% 1.3%  
218 0.1% 1.3%  
219 0.1% 1.1%  
220 0.4% 1.0%  
221 0.2% 0.7%  
222 0.4% 0.5%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0.1% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.8%  
156 0% 99.8%  
157 0% 99.8%  
158 0% 99.8%  
159 0.4% 99.8%  
160 0% 99.4%  
161 0.1% 99.4%  
162 0% 99.3%  
163 0% 99.2%  
164 0% 99.2%  
165 0.2% 99.2%  
166 0.2% 99.0%  
167 0.3% 98.8%  
168 0.1% 98.5%  
169 0.4% 98%  
170 0.7% 98%  
171 1.1% 97%  
172 0.9% 96%  
173 0.7% 95%  
174 0.4% 95%  
175 0.2% 94%  
176 0.5% 94%  
177 0.5% 94%  
178 2% 93%  
179 2% 92%  
180 1.5% 90%  
181 12% 88%  
182 5% 76%  
183 2% 71%  
184 7% 69%  
185 6% 62%  
186 2% 56%  
187 0.6% 54%  
188 0.6% 53%  
189 1.4% 53%  
190 4% 51% Median
191 0.5% 47%  
192 0.7% 47%  
193 8% 46%  
194 2% 39%  
195 2% 36%  
196 0.2% 34%  
197 1.3% 34%  
198 1.3% 33%  
199 12% 32%  
200 0.7% 20%  
201 0.5% 19%  
202 11% 18%  
203 0.3% 7%  
204 1.1% 7%  
205 0.4% 6%  
206 1.3% 5%  
207 0.3% 4%  
208 0% 4%  
209 0.3% 4%  
210 0% 4%  
211 0.1% 3%  
212 0.1% 3%  
213 2% 3%  
214 0.2% 2%  
215 0.3% 2%  
216 0.1% 1.4%  
217 0.1% 1.3%  
218 0.1% 1.3%  
219 0.1% 1.1%  
220 0.4% 1.0%  
221 0.2% 0.7%  
222 0.4% 0.5%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations