Opinion Poll by ICM Research, 8–11 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 38.5% 37.1–39.9% 36.8–40.3% 36.4–40.7% 35.8–41.3%
Labour Party 41.0% 30.6% 29.3–31.9% 29.0–32.3% 28.6–32.7% 28.0–33.3%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 14.8% 13.8–15.9% 13.5–16.1% 13.3–16.4% 12.9–16.9%
Brexit Party 0.0% 7.9% 7.2–8.7% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.2% 6.5–9.6%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 2.9% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.6% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.7% 2.9% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.6% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 330 311–350 308–353 305–359 299–367
Labour Party 262 214 199–230 193–234 189–235 182–243
Liberal Democrats 12 42 37–47 36–48 35–49 32–50
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 35 39 33–47 28–48 22–50 18–51
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 4 4–8 4–8 4–9 4–10
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0% 99.5%  
300 0.1% 99.5%  
301 0.2% 99.4%  
302 0.1% 99.1%  
303 0.2% 99.0%  
304 0.7% 98.8%  
305 1.2% 98%  
306 0.2% 97%  
307 0.2% 97%  
308 2% 97%  
309 2% 95%  
310 0.2% 93%  
311 3% 93%  
312 0.6% 90%  
313 2% 89%  
314 3% 87%  
315 1.3% 84%  
316 3% 83%  
317 0.6% 80% Last Result
318 3% 79%  
319 2% 76%  
320 2% 74%  
321 1.3% 73%  
322 1.0% 72%  
323 3% 71%  
324 4% 67%  
325 5% 64%  
326 1.1% 59% Majority
327 1.1% 57%  
328 3% 56%  
329 2% 53%  
330 2% 51% Median
331 3% 49%  
332 1.0% 46%  
333 2% 45%  
334 4% 44%  
335 0.8% 39%  
336 6% 39%  
337 0.6% 32%  
338 3% 31%  
339 0.4% 28%  
340 1.1% 28%  
341 3% 27%  
342 4% 24%  
343 2% 21%  
344 1.0% 19%  
345 4% 18%  
346 0.8% 14%  
347 1.2% 14%  
348 1.4% 12%  
349 0.2% 11%  
350 2% 11%  
351 2% 9%  
352 0.9% 6%  
353 0.7% 6%  
354 0.1% 5%  
355 0.2% 5%  
356 1.1% 4%  
357 0.4% 3%  
358 0.3% 3%  
359 0.6% 3%  
360 0.2% 2%  
361 0.3% 2%  
362 0.3% 2%  
363 0.1% 1.3%  
364 0.1% 1.2%  
365 0.1% 1.1%  
366 0.3% 1.0%  
367 0.3% 0.7%  
368 0% 0.4%  
369 0% 0.4%  
370 0% 0.4%  
371 0.2% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
178 0% 100%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.9%  
181 0.1% 99.8%  
182 0.3% 99.7%  
183 0.2% 99.4%  
184 0.1% 99.3%  
185 0.3% 99.1%  
186 0.3% 98.9%  
187 0.1% 98.6%  
188 0.4% 98.5%  
189 0.7% 98%  
190 0.9% 97%  
191 0.3% 97%  
192 0.6% 96%  
193 0.8% 96%  
194 0.1% 95%  
195 0.7% 95%  
196 0.7% 94%  
197 0.2% 93%  
198 0.4% 93%  
199 4% 93%  
200 0.8% 89%  
201 3% 88%  
202 3% 85%  
203 7% 82%  
204 3% 75%  
205 5% 72%  
206 2% 67%  
207 3% 65%  
208 1.2% 63%  
209 0.7% 61%  
210 2% 61%  
211 0.6% 59%  
212 2% 59%  
213 3% 56%  
214 5% 54% Median
215 3% 49%  
216 2% 46%  
217 2% 43%  
218 0.7% 41%  
219 3% 40%  
220 2% 37%  
221 2% 35%  
222 5% 33%  
223 3% 28%  
224 3% 25%  
225 2% 22%  
226 2% 20%  
227 4% 18%  
228 1.5% 14%  
229 2% 13%  
230 2% 11%  
231 0.8% 9%  
232 0.3% 8%  
233 3% 8%  
234 2% 5%  
235 1.3% 3%  
236 0.3% 2%  
237 0.2% 2%  
238 0.3% 2%  
239 0% 1.4%  
240 0.3% 1.3%  
241 0.3% 1.0%  
242 0% 0.8%  
243 0.3% 0.7%  
244 0% 0.4%  
245 0% 0.3%  
246 0% 0.3%  
247 0% 0.3%  
248 0% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.2%  
250 0.1% 0.2%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0.1% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.9%  
33 0.7% 99.4%  
34 0.8% 98.7%  
35 3% 98%  
36 4% 95%  
37 7% 92%  
38 8% 84%  
39 11% 76%  
40 5% 65%  
41 6% 60%  
42 10% 53% Median
43 9% 43%  
44 6% 34%  
45 9% 28%  
46 5% 19%  
47 9% 14%  
48 3% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.3% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.8%  
13 0.1% 99.8%  
14 0% 99.7%  
15 0% 99.6%  
16 0% 99.6%  
17 0% 99.6%  
18 0.1% 99.6%  
19 0.1% 99.4%  
20 0.9% 99.3%  
21 0% 98%  
22 1.4% 98%  
23 0.5% 97%  
24 0% 96%  
25 0.3% 96%  
26 0.7% 96%  
27 0% 95%  
28 0.3% 95%  
29 0.1% 95%  
30 0.3% 95%  
31 2% 95%  
32 2% 93%  
33 5% 91%  
34 2% 86%  
35 7% 84% Last Result
36 2% 77%  
37 1.1% 75%  
38 8% 74%  
39 23% 66% Median
40 6% 42%  
41 3% 36%  
42 5% 33%  
43 3% 28%  
44 0.6% 25%  
45 8% 24%  
46 2% 16%  
47 5% 14%  
48 6% 9%  
49 0% 4%  
50 3% 3%  
51 0.6% 0.6%  
52 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.4% 100%  
4 52% 99.5% Last Result, Median
5 8% 48%  
6 3% 40%  
7 2% 37%  
8 32% 35%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.6% 0.9%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 374 100% 357–393 352–397 351–402 346–411
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 371 100% 355–389 353–394 347–399 343–407
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 369 100% 352–387 347–391 347–396 341–405
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 336 76% 317–355 313–360 312–365 305–374
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 330 59% 311–350 308–353 305–359 299–367
Conservative Party 317 330 59% 311–350 308–353 305–359 299–367
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 314 302 3% 282–321 279–324 273–327 265–333
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 301 3% 281–320 278–323 272–326 264–332
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 295 0.6% 276–314 271–318 266–319 257–326
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 262 0% 244–279 240–284 235–284 226–290
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 260 0% 242–276 237–278 232–284 224–288
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 257 0% 238–274 234–279 229–280 220–285
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 253 0% 237–271 231–272 228–277 218–283
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 221 0% 205–237 199–238 194–240 189–248
Labour Party 262 214 0% 199–230 193–234 189–235 182–243

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.8%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0% 99.7%  
343 0.1% 99.7%  
344 0% 99.7%  
345 0.1% 99.6%  
346 0.4% 99.6%  
347 0.1% 99.2%  
348 0.1% 99.1%  
349 0.2% 99.0%  
350 0.9% 98.8%  
351 3% 98%  
352 0.5% 95%  
353 0.3% 95%  
354 0.4% 94%  
355 3% 94%  
356 0.5% 91% Last Result
357 3% 91%  
358 1.1% 87%  
359 2% 86%  
360 0.5% 84%  
361 2% 84%  
362 1.4% 81%  
363 2% 80%  
364 1.3% 78%  
365 4% 77%  
366 3% 73%  
367 0.9% 69%  
368 2% 68%  
369 3% 67%  
370 5% 63%  
371 2% 58%  
372 1.5% 56%  
373 1.3% 55% Median
374 4% 53%  
375 1.1% 50%  
376 0.7% 49%  
377 3% 48%  
378 1.2% 45%  
379 2% 44%  
380 1.4% 42%  
381 5% 41%  
382 1.3% 36%  
383 1.4% 35%  
384 3% 33%  
385 4% 31%  
386 1.5% 27%  
387 1.0% 26%  
388 4% 25%  
389 5% 21%  
390 2% 16%  
391 0.6% 14%  
392 2% 13%  
393 3% 11%  
394 1.4% 8%  
395 0.9% 7%  
396 0.5% 6%  
397 1.0% 5%  
398 0.3% 4%  
399 0.5% 4%  
400 0.3% 3%  
401 0.5% 3%  
402 0.1% 3%  
403 0.2% 2%  
404 0.8% 2%  
405 0.1% 1.4%  
406 0.2% 1.3%  
407 0.1% 1.1%  
408 0.2% 1.0%  
409 0.1% 0.8%  
410 0.1% 0.7%  
411 0.2% 0.6%  
412 0.2% 0.4%  
413 0.1% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.7%  
341 0% 99.7%  
342 0.1% 99.7%  
343 0.3% 99.6%  
344 0.6% 99.3%  
345 0.1% 98.7%  
346 0.2% 98.6%  
347 1.0% 98%  
348 0.1% 97%  
349 0.3% 97%  
350 0.4% 97%  
351 0.3% 97%  
352 0.5% 96%  
353 0.9% 96%  
354 1.0% 95%  
355 4% 94%  
356 4% 90%  
357 0.9% 86%  
358 0.8% 85%  
359 2% 85%  
360 1.4% 83%  
361 4% 81%  
362 3% 78%  
363 4% 74%  
364 3% 71%  
365 4% 67%  
366 0.9% 63%  
367 3% 62%  
368 1.5% 59%  
369 2% 58%  
370 2% 55%  
371 5% 54%  
372 1.0% 49% Median
373 1.4% 48%  
374 3% 46%  
375 7% 43%  
376 2% 36%  
377 1.0% 34%  
378 1.1% 33%  
379 0.6% 32%  
380 1.5% 32%  
381 4% 30%  
382 2% 26%  
383 4% 24%  
384 2% 20%  
385 2% 19%  
386 2% 16%  
387 3% 15%  
388 1.1% 12%  
389 2% 11%  
390 2% 9%  
391 0.5% 7%  
392 0.4% 7%  
393 1.1% 6%  
394 0.8% 5%  
395 0.3% 4%  
396 0.6% 4%  
397 0.2% 4%  
398 0.7% 3%  
399 0.5% 3%  
400 0.1% 2%  
401 0.4% 2%  
402 0.1% 2%  
403 0.1% 2%  
404 0.3% 1.4%  
405 0.5% 1.1%  
406 0% 0.6%  
407 0.1% 0.5%  
408 0.1% 0.4%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0.1% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.8%  
333 0% 99.8%  
334 0% 99.8%  
335 0% 99.8%  
336 0% 99.8%  
337 0% 99.7%  
338 0.1% 99.7%  
339 0% 99.6%  
340 0.1% 99.6%  
341 0.3% 99.5%  
342 0.2% 99.2%  
343 0.1% 99.0%  
344 0.3% 99.0%  
345 0.3% 98.7%  
346 0.7% 98%  
347 3% 98%  
348 0.4% 95%  
349 0.3% 94%  
350 0.3% 94%  
351 4% 94%  
352 1.2% 90% Last Result
353 4% 89%  
354 2% 85%  
355 0.6% 83%  
356 2% 83%  
357 2% 81%  
358 5% 79%  
359 2% 75%  
360 1.4% 73%  
361 5% 72%  
362 3% 67%  
363 1.0% 64%  
364 2% 63%  
365 2% 62%  
366 5% 59%  
367 2% 54%  
368 1.4% 52%  
369 1.2% 51% Median
370 2% 50%  
371 0.9% 48%  
372 0.9% 47%  
373 4% 46%  
374 2% 42%  
375 1.5% 40%  
376 2% 38%  
377 3% 36%  
378 1.3% 33%  
379 0.5% 32%  
380 3% 31%  
381 7% 29%  
382 3% 22%  
383 2% 19%  
384 4% 17%  
385 0.9% 12%  
386 1.1% 11%  
387 0.5% 10%  
388 0.3% 10%  
389 4% 9%  
390 0.8% 6%  
391 0.8% 5%  
392 0.7% 4%  
393 0.1% 4%  
394 0.5% 4%  
395 0.5% 3%  
396 0.3% 3%  
397 0.6% 2%  
398 0.2% 2%  
399 0.2% 2%  
400 0.4% 1.3%  
401 0.1% 0.9%  
402 0% 0.8%  
403 0.1% 0.8%  
404 0.2% 0.7%  
405 0.1% 0.5%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0.2% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0% 99.7%  
303 0% 99.7%  
304 0.1% 99.7%  
305 0.1% 99.5%  
306 0.1% 99.4%  
307 0.2% 99.3%  
308 0.1% 99.1%  
309 0.4% 99.0%  
310 0.4% 98.6%  
311 0.5% 98%  
312 2% 98%  
313 2% 95%  
314 0.3% 93%  
315 1.1% 93%  
316 0.4% 92%  
317 2% 92%  
318 3% 90%  
319 3% 87%  
320 2% 84%  
321 0.8% 83% Last Result
322 0.8% 82%  
323 2% 81%  
324 2% 79%  
325 1.3% 77%  
326 3% 76% Majority
327 2% 72%  
328 4% 70%  
329 2% 66%  
330 3% 64%  
331 2% 61%  
332 2% 60%  
333 3% 57%  
334 2% 54% Median
335 0.9% 52%  
336 2% 51%  
337 2% 49%  
338 2% 47%  
339 3% 45%  
340 1.0% 42%  
341 0.9% 41%  
342 5% 40%  
343 0.8% 35%  
344 7% 35%  
345 3% 28%  
346 3% 26%  
347 2% 23%  
348 1.3% 21%  
349 3% 20%  
350 0.2% 16%  
351 1.4% 16%  
352 1.3% 15%  
353 1.0% 13%  
354 1.5% 12%  
355 3% 11%  
356 1.3% 8%  
357 0.4% 7%  
358 0.7% 7%  
359 0.7% 6%  
360 0.8% 5%  
361 0.6% 4%  
362 0.3% 4%  
363 0.6% 3%  
364 0.3% 3%  
365 0.5% 3%  
366 0.4% 2%  
367 0% 2%  
368 0.2% 2%  
369 0.1% 1.5%  
370 0.2% 1.3%  
371 0.2% 1.1%  
372 0.3% 0.9%  
373 0% 0.6%  
374 0.1% 0.6%  
375 0.2% 0.4%  
376 0.1% 0.3%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0.1% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0% 99.5%  
300 0.1% 99.5%  
301 0.2% 99.4%  
302 0.1% 99.1%  
303 0.2% 99.0%  
304 0.7% 98.8%  
305 1.2% 98%  
306 0.2% 97%  
307 0.2% 97%  
308 2% 97%  
309 2% 95%  
310 0.2% 93%  
311 3% 93%  
312 0.6% 90%  
313 2% 89%  
314 3% 87%  
315 1.3% 84%  
316 3% 83%  
317 0.6% 80% Last Result
318 3% 79%  
319 2% 76%  
320 2% 74%  
321 1.3% 73%  
322 1.0% 72%  
323 3% 71%  
324 4% 67%  
325 5% 64%  
326 1.1% 59% Majority
327 1.1% 57%  
328 3% 56%  
329 2% 53%  
330 2% 51% Median
331 3% 49%  
332 1.0% 46%  
333 2% 45%  
334 4% 44%  
335 0.8% 39%  
336 6% 39%  
337 0.6% 32%  
338 3% 31%  
339 0.4% 28%  
340 1.1% 28%  
341 3% 27%  
342 4% 24%  
343 2% 21%  
344 1.0% 19%  
345 4% 18%  
346 0.8% 14%  
347 1.2% 14%  
348 1.4% 12%  
349 0.2% 11%  
350 2% 11%  
351 2% 9%  
352 0.9% 6%  
353 0.7% 6%  
354 0.1% 5%  
355 0.2% 5%  
356 1.1% 4%  
357 0.4% 3%  
358 0.3% 3%  
359 0.6% 3%  
360 0.2% 2%  
361 0.3% 2%  
362 0.3% 2%  
363 0.1% 1.3%  
364 0.1% 1.2%  
365 0.1% 1.1%  
366 0.3% 1.0%  
367 0.3% 0.7%  
368 0% 0.4%  
369 0% 0.4%  
370 0% 0.4%  
371 0.2% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0% 99.5%  
300 0.1% 99.5%  
301 0.2% 99.4%  
302 0.1% 99.1%  
303 0.2% 99.0%  
304 0.7% 98.8%  
305 1.2% 98%  
306 0.2% 97%  
307 0.2% 97%  
308 2% 97%  
309 2% 95%  
310 0.2% 93%  
311 3% 93%  
312 0.6% 90%  
313 2% 89%  
314 3% 87%  
315 1.3% 84%  
316 3% 83%  
317 0.6% 80% Last Result
318 3% 79%  
319 2% 76%  
320 2% 74%  
321 1.3% 73%  
322 1.0% 72%  
323 3% 71%  
324 4% 67%  
325 5% 64%  
326 1.1% 59% Majority
327 1.1% 57%  
328 3% 56%  
329 2% 53%  
330 2% 51% Median
331 3% 49%  
332 1.0% 46%  
333 2% 45%  
334 4% 44%  
335 0.8% 39%  
336 6% 39%  
337 0.6% 32%  
338 3% 31%  
339 0.4% 28%  
340 1.1% 28%  
341 3% 27%  
342 4% 24%  
343 2% 21%  
344 1.0% 19%  
345 4% 18%  
346 0.8% 14%  
347 1.2% 14%  
348 1.4% 12%  
349 0.2% 11%  
350 2% 11%  
351 2% 9%  
352 0.9% 6%  
353 0.7% 6%  
354 0.1% 5%  
355 0.2% 5%  
356 1.1% 4%  
357 0.4% 3%  
358 0.3% 3%  
359 0.6% 3%  
360 0.2% 2%  
361 0.3% 2%  
362 0.3% 2%  
363 0.1% 1.3%  
364 0.1% 1.2%  
365 0.1% 1.1%  
366 0.3% 1.0%  
367 0.3% 0.7%  
368 0% 0.4%  
369 0% 0.4%  
370 0% 0.4%  
371 0.2% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0.2% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.7%  
263 0% 99.6%  
264 0% 99.6%  
265 0.3% 99.6%  
266 0.3% 99.3%  
267 0.1% 99.0%  
268 0.1% 98.9%  
269 0.1% 98.8%  
270 0.3% 98.7%  
271 0.3% 98%  
272 0.2% 98%  
273 0.6% 98%  
274 0.3% 97%  
275 0.4% 97%  
276 1.1% 97%  
277 0.2% 96%  
278 0.1% 95%  
279 0.7% 95%  
280 0.9% 94%  
281 2% 94%  
282 2% 91%  
283 0.2% 89%  
284 1.4% 89%  
285 1.2% 88%  
286 0.8% 86%  
287 4% 86%  
288 1.0% 82%  
289 2% 81%  
290 4% 79%  
291 3% 76%  
292 1.1% 73%  
293 0.4% 72%  
294 3% 72%  
295 0.6% 69%  
296 6% 68%  
297 0.8% 61%  
298 4% 61%  
299 2% 56%  
300 1.0% 55% Median
301 3% 54%  
302 2% 51%  
303 2% 49%  
304 3% 47%  
305 1.1% 44%  
306 1.1% 43%  
307 5% 41%  
308 4% 36%  
309 3% 33%  
310 1.0% 29%  
311 1.3% 28%  
312 2% 27%  
313 2% 26%  
314 3% 24% Last Result
315 0.6% 21%  
316 3% 20%  
317 1.3% 17%  
318 3% 16%  
319 2% 13%  
320 0.6% 11%  
321 3% 10%  
322 0.2% 7%  
323 2% 7%  
324 2% 5%  
325 0.2% 3%  
326 0.2% 3% Majority
327 1.2% 3%  
328 0.7% 2%  
329 0.2% 1.2%  
330 0.1% 1.0%  
331 0.2% 0.9%  
332 0.1% 0.6%  
333 0% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0.1% 0.3%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.9%  
260 0.2% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.7%  
262 0% 99.6%  
263 0% 99.6%  
264 0.3% 99.6%  
265 0.3% 99.3%  
266 0.1% 99.0%  
267 0.1% 98.9%  
268 0.1% 98.8%  
269 0.3% 98.7%  
270 0.3% 98%  
271 0.2% 98%  
272 0.6% 98%  
273 0.3% 97%  
274 0.4% 97%  
275 1.1% 97%  
276 0.2% 96%  
277 0.1% 95%  
278 0.7% 95%  
279 0.9% 94%  
280 2% 94%  
281 2% 91%  
282 0.2% 89%  
283 1.4% 89%  
284 1.2% 88%  
285 0.8% 86%  
286 4% 86%  
287 1.0% 82%  
288 2% 81%  
289 4% 79%  
290 3% 76%  
291 1.1% 73%  
292 0.4% 72%  
293 3% 72%  
294 0.6% 69%  
295 6% 68%  
296 0.8% 61%  
297 4% 61%  
298 2% 56%  
299 1.0% 55% Median
300 3% 54%  
301 2% 51%  
302 2% 49%  
303 3% 47%  
304 1.1% 44%  
305 1.1% 43%  
306 5% 41%  
307 4% 36%  
308 3% 33%  
309 1.0% 29%  
310 1.3% 28%  
311 2% 27%  
312 2% 26%  
313 3% 24% Last Result
314 0.6% 21%  
315 3% 20%  
316 1.3% 17%  
317 3% 16%  
318 2% 13%  
319 0.6% 11%  
320 3% 10%  
321 0.2% 7%  
322 2% 7%  
323 2% 5%  
324 0.2% 3%  
325 0.2% 3%  
326 1.2% 3% Majority
327 0.7% 2%  
328 0.2% 1.2%  
329 0.1% 1.0%  
330 0.2% 0.9%  
331 0.1% 0.6%  
332 0% 0.5%  
333 0.1% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0.1% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0.2% 99.7%  
257 0.1% 99.6%  
258 0% 99.4%  
259 0.3% 99.4%  
260 0.2% 99.1%  
261 0.2% 98.9%  
262 0.1% 98.7%  
263 0.2% 98.5%  
264 0% 98%  
265 0.4% 98%  
266 0.5% 98%  
267 0.3% 97%  
268 0.6% 97%  
269 0.3% 97%  
270 0.6% 96%  
271 0.8% 96%  
272 0.7% 95%  
273 0.7% 94%  
274 0.4% 93%  
275 1.3% 93%  
276 3% 92%  
277 1.5% 89%  
278 1.0% 88%  
279 1.3% 87%  
280 1.4% 85%  
281 0.2% 84%  
282 3% 84%  
283 1.3% 80%  
284 2% 79%  
285 3% 77%  
286 3% 74%  
287 7% 72%  
288 0.8% 65%  
289 5% 65%  
290 0.9% 60%  
291 1.0% 59%  
292 3% 58%  
293 2% 55%  
294 2% 53%  
295 2% 51% Median
296 0.9% 49%  
297 2% 48%  
298 3% 46%  
299 2% 43%  
300 2% 40%  
301 3% 39%  
302 2% 36%  
303 4% 34%  
304 2% 30%  
305 3% 28%  
306 1.3% 24%  
307 2% 23%  
308 2% 21%  
309 0.8% 19% Last Result
310 0.8% 18%  
311 2% 17%  
312 3% 16%  
313 3% 13%  
314 2% 10%  
315 0.4% 8%  
316 1.1% 8%  
317 0.3% 7%  
318 2% 7%  
319 2% 5%  
320 0.5% 2%  
321 0.4% 2%  
322 0.4% 1.4%  
323 0.1% 1.0%  
324 0.2% 0.9%  
325 0.1% 0.7%  
326 0.1% 0.6% Majority
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.3%  
330 0.1% 0.3%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0.1% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0.2% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.7%  
226 0.1% 99.6%  
227 0.2% 99.5%  
228 0.1% 99.3%  
229 0% 99.2%  
230 0.1% 99.2%  
231 0.4% 99.1%  
232 0.2% 98.7%  
233 0.2% 98%  
234 0.6% 98%  
235 0.3% 98%  
236 0.5% 97%  
237 0.5% 97%  
238 0.1% 96%  
239 0.7% 96%  
240 0.8% 96%  
241 0.8% 95%  
242 4% 94%  
243 0.3% 91%  
244 0.5% 90%  
245 1.1% 90%  
246 0.9% 89%  
247 4% 88%  
248 2% 83%  
249 3% 81%  
250 7% 78%  
251 3% 71%  
252 0.5% 69%  
253 1.3% 68%  
254 3% 67%  
255 2% 64%  
256 1.5% 62%  
257 2% 60%  
258 4% 58%  
259 0.9% 54%  
260 0.9% 53% Median
261 2% 52%  
262 1.2% 50%  
263 1.4% 49%  
264 2% 48%  
265 5% 46%  
266 2% 41%  
267 2% 38%  
268 1.1% 37%  
269 3% 36%  
270 5% 33%  
271 1.4% 28%  
272 2% 27%  
273 5% 25%  
274 2% 21%  
275 2% 19%  
276 0.6% 17%  
277 2% 17%  
278 4% 15% Last Result
279 1.2% 11%  
280 4% 10%  
281 0.3% 6%  
282 0.3% 6%  
283 0.4% 6%  
284 3% 5%  
285 0.7% 2%  
286 0.3% 2%  
287 0.3% 1.3%  
288 0.1% 1.0%  
289 0.2% 1.0%  
290 0.3% 0.8%  
291 0.1% 0.5%  
292 0% 0.4%  
293 0.1% 0.4%  
294 0% 0.3%  
295 0% 0.3%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100%  
221 0.1% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0.1% 99.7%  
224 0.1% 99.6%  
225 0% 99.5%  
226 0.5% 99.4%  
227 0.3% 98.9%  
228 0.1% 98.6%  
229 0.1% 98%  
230 0.4% 98%  
231 0.1% 98%  
232 0.5% 98%  
233 0.7% 97%  
234 0.2% 97%  
235 0.6% 96%  
236 0.3% 96%  
237 0.8% 96%  
238 1.1% 95%  
239 0.4% 94%  
240 0.5% 93%  
241 2% 93%  
242 2% 91%  
243 1.1% 89%  
244 3% 88%  
245 2% 85%  
246 2% 84%  
247 2% 81%  
248 4% 79%  
249 2% 76%  
250 4% 74%  
251 1.5% 70%  
252 0.6% 68%  
253 1.1% 68%  
254 1.0% 67%  
255 2% 66%  
256 7% 64%  
257 3% 57% Median
258 1.4% 54%  
259 1.0% 52%  
260 5% 51%  
261 2% 46%  
262 2% 45%  
263 1.5% 42%  
264 3% 41%  
265 0.9% 38%  
266 4% 37%  
267 3% 33%  
268 4% 29%  
269 3% 26%  
270 4% 22%  
271 1.4% 19%  
272 2% 17%  
273 0.8% 15%  
274 0.9% 15%  
275 4% 14%  
276 4% 10%  
277 1.0% 6%  
278 0.9% 5%  
279 0.5% 4%  
280 0.3% 4%  
281 0.4% 3%  
282 0.3% 3%  
283 0.1% 3%  
284 1.0% 3%  
285 0.2% 2%  
286 0.1% 1.4%  
287 0.6% 1.3%  
288 0.3% 0.7%  
289 0.1% 0.4%  
290 0% 0.3%  
291 0% 0.3%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0.1% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0.1% 99.9%  
219 0.2% 99.8%  
220 0.2% 99.6%  
221 0.1% 99.4%  
222 0.1% 99.3%  
223 0.2% 99.2%  
224 0.1% 99.0%  
225 0.2% 98.9%  
226 0.1% 98.7%  
227 0.8% 98.6%  
228 0.2% 98%  
229 0.1% 98%  
230 0.5% 97%  
231 0.3% 97%  
232 0.5% 97%  
233 0.3% 96%  
234 1.0% 96%  
235 0.5% 95%  
236 0.9% 94%  
237 1.4% 93%  
238 3% 92%  
239 2% 89%  
240 0.6% 87%  
241 2% 86%  
242 5% 84%  
243 4% 79%  
244 1.1% 75%  
245 1.5% 74%  
246 4% 73%  
247 3% 69%  
248 1.4% 67%  
249 1.3% 65%  
250 5% 64%  
251 1.4% 59%  
252 2% 58%  
253 1.2% 56%  
254 3% 55%  
255 0.7% 52%  
256 1.1% 51% Median
257 4% 50%  
258 1.3% 47%  
259 1.5% 45%  
260 2% 44%  
261 5% 42%  
262 3% 37%  
263 2% 33%  
264 0.9% 32%  
265 3% 31%  
266 4% 27%  
267 1.3% 23%  
268 2% 22%  
269 1.4% 20%  
270 2% 19%  
271 0.5% 16%  
272 2% 16%  
273 1.1% 14%  
274 3% 13% Last Result
275 0.5% 9%  
276 3% 9%  
277 0.4% 6%  
278 0.3% 6%  
279 0.5% 5%  
280 3% 5%  
281 0.8% 2%  
282 0.2% 1.2%  
283 0.1% 1.0%  
284 0.1% 0.9%  
285 0.4% 0.8%  
286 0.1% 0.4%  
287 0% 0.4%  
288 0.1% 0.3%  
289 0% 0.3%  
290 0% 0.3%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0.1% 99.9%  
216 0.2% 99.8%  
217 0.1% 99.6%  
218 0.2% 99.6%  
219 0.1% 99.4%  
220 0.1% 99.3%  
221 0.3% 99.3%  
222 0.5% 99.0%  
223 0.2% 98%  
224 0.1% 98%  
225 0.2% 98%  
226 0.3% 98%  
227 0.1% 98%  
228 0.9% 98%  
229 0.7% 97%  
230 0.2% 96%  
231 0.7% 96%  
232 0.9% 95%  
233 0.6% 94%  
234 0.7% 94%  
235 0.9% 93%  
236 0.2% 92%  
237 2% 92%  
238 2% 89%  
239 1.3% 87%  
240 3% 86%  
241 1.2% 82%  
242 3% 81%  
243 0.9% 78%  
244 4% 77%  
245 2% 73%  
246 4% 71%  
247 1.4% 67%  
248 4% 66%  
249 4% 62%  
250 0.6% 58%  
251 2% 57%  
252 5% 56%  
253 1.0% 51% Median
254 1.3% 50%  
255 1.3% 49%  
256 4% 47%  
257 2% 43%  
258 4% 41%  
259 2% 37%  
260 1.0% 34%  
261 3% 33%  
262 1.4% 30%  
263 4% 29%  
264 4% 24%  
265 1.3% 21%  
266 3% 19%  
267 0.9% 16%  
268 2% 15%  
269 1.0% 13%  
270 0.9% 12%  
271 3% 11%  
272 3% 8%  
273 0.8% 5%  
274 0.6% 4%  
275 0.2% 3%  
276 0.3% 3%  
277 1.1% 3%  
278 0.1% 2%  
279 0.2% 2%  
280 0.4% 1.4%  
281 0.1% 1.0%  
282 0.4% 0.9%  
283 0.1% 0.5%  
284 0% 0.4%  
285 0% 0.3%  
286 0% 0.3%  
287 0% 0.3%  
288 0.1% 0.3%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
185 0% 100%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0.1% 99.9%  
188 0.2% 99.9%  
189 0.2% 99.6%  
190 0.4% 99.4%  
191 0.2% 99.0%  
192 0% 98.8%  
193 0.7% 98.8%  
194 0.6% 98%  
195 0.2% 97%  
196 0.5% 97%  
197 0.6% 97%  
198 0.7% 96%  
199 0.6% 95%  
200 0.1% 95%  
201 0.4% 95%  
202 0.2% 94%  
203 2% 94%  
204 0.7% 92%  
205 4% 91%  
206 1.2% 88%  
207 3% 86%  
208 0.9% 83%  
209 5% 82%  
210 4% 77%  
211 8% 73%  
212 3% 65%  
213 0.6% 62%  
214 0.8% 62%  
215 0.5% 61%  
216 3% 61%  
217 1.0% 58%  
218 1.2% 57% Median
219 2% 56%  
220 3% 54%  
221 4% 51%  
222 4% 46%  
223 2% 43%  
224 0.3% 41%  
225 1.0% 40%  
226 5% 39%  
227 5% 35%  
228 3% 30%  
229 4% 27%  
230 2% 23%  
231 4% 21%  
232 1.2% 17%  
233 3% 15%  
234 1.0% 12%  
235 1.0% 11%  
236 0.2% 10%  
237 4% 10%  
238 2% 6%  
239 1.4% 4%  
240 0.4% 3%  
241 0.7% 2%  
242 0.1% 2%  
243 0.1% 2%  
244 0.1% 1.5%  
245 0.3% 1.4%  
246 0.3% 1.1%  
247 0.1% 0.8%  
248 0.3% 0.7%  
249 0% 0.4%  
250 0% 0.3%  
251 0% 0.3%  
252 0% 0.3%  
253 0% 0.3%  
254 0% 0.2%  
255 0.1% 0.2%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0.1% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
178 0% 100%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.9%  
181 0.1% 99.8%  
182 0.3% 99.7%  
183 0.2% 99.4%  
184 0.1% 99.3%  
185 0.3% 99.1%  
186 0.3% 98.9%  
187 0.1% 98.6%  
188 0.4% 98.5%  
189 0.7% 98%  
190 0.9% 97%  
191 0.3% 97%  
192 0.6% 96%  
193 0.8% 96%  
194 0.1% 95%  
195 0.7% 95%  
196 0.7% 94%  
197 0.2% 93%  
198 0.4% 93%  
199 4% 93%  
200 0.8% 89%  
201 3% 88%  
202 3% 85%  
203 7% 82%  
204 3% 75%  
205 5% 72%  
206 2% 67%  
207 3% 65%  
208 1.2% 63%  
209 0.7% 61%  
210 2% 61%  
211 0.6% 59%  
212 2% 59%  
213 3% 56%  
214 5% 54% Median
215 3% 49%  
216 2% 46%  
217 2% 43%  
218 0.7% 41%  
219 3% 40%  
220 2% 37%  
221 2% 35%  
222 5% 33%  
223 3% 28%  
224 3% 25%  
225 2% 22%  
226 2% 20%  
227 4% 18%  
228 1.5% 14%  
229 2% 13%  
230 2% 11%  
231 0.8% 9%  
232 0.3% 8%  
233 3% 8%  
234 2% 5%  
235 1.3% 3%  
236 0.3% 2%  
237 0.2% 2%  
238 0.3% 2%  
239 0% 1.4%  
240 0.3% 1.3%  
241 0.3% 1.0%  
242 0% 0.8%  
243 0.3% 0.7%  
244 0% 0.4%  
245 0% 0.3%  
246 0% 0.3%  
247 0% 0.3%  
248 0% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.2%  
250 0.1% 0.2%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0.1% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations