Opinion Poll by ComRes for Daily Telegraph, 11–12 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 39.3% 37.9–40.7% 37.5–41.1% 37.2–41.5% 36.5–42.1%
Labour Party 41.0% 29.5% 28.2–30.8% 27.8–31.2% 27.5–31.5% 26.9–32.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 15.7% 14.7–16.8% 14.4–17.1% 14.2–17.4% 13.7–17.9%
Brexit Party 0.0% 6.9% 6.2–7.7% 6.0–7.9% 5.9–8.1% 5.5–8.5%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 3.9% 3.4–4.5% 3.3–4.7% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.2%
Green Party 1.7% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 334 315–354 311–358 308–362 301–366
Labour Party 262 203 187–219 184–224 181–226 176–231
Liberal Democrats 12 44 38–48 36–49 36–50 35–55
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 35 50 45–53 40–53 39–53 39–53
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.1% 99.7%  
301 0.1% 99.6%  
302 0.1% 99.5%  
303 0.2% 99.3%  
304 0.5% 99.2%  
305 0.1% 98.6%  
306 0.4% 98%  
307 0.3% 98%  
308 1.4% 98%  
309 0.6% 96%  
310 0.6% 96%  
311 0.7% 95%  
312 1.1% 95%  
313 1.4% 93%  
314 0.9% 92%  
315 2% 91%  
316 1.0% 89%  
317 0.8% 88% Last Result
318 1.0% 87%  
319 0.3% 86%  
320 4% 86%  
321 1.3% 83%  
322 0.5% 81%  
323 0.8% 81%  
324 3% 80%  
325 2% 77%  
326 4% 75% Majority
327 2% 71%  
328 0.9% 68%  
329 1.4% 68%  
330 6% 66%  
331 3% 60%  
332 5% 57%  
333 1.5% 52%  
334 2% 51% Median
335 3% 49%  
336 3% 46%  
337 0.7% 43%  
338 1.3% 42%  
339 2% 41%  
340 1.1% 39%  
341 0.8% 38%  
342 1.0% 37%  
343 6% 37%  
344 6% 30%  
345 2% 24%  
346 0.8% 22%  
347 0.9% 21%  
348 1.3% 20%  
349 1.2% 19%  
350 1.3% 17%  
351 2% 16%  
352 2% 14%  
353 0.9% 12%  
354 1.2% 11%  
355 2% 10%  
356 1.4% 7%  
357 0.7% 6%  
358 0.7% 5%  
359 0.9% 5%  
360 0.6% 4%  
361 0.4% 3%  
362 0.8% 3%  
363 1.0% 2%  
364 0.1% 0.9%  
365 0.3% 0.8%  
366 0.2% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0.1% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0.1% 99.9%  
175 0% 99.8%  
176 0.4% 99.8%  
177 0.1% 99.4%  
178 0.4% 99.3%  
179 0.3% 98.8%  
180 0.7% 98%  
181 0.6% 98%  
182 0.5% 97%  
183 0.9% 97%  
184 1.3% 96%  
185 2% 94%  
186 2% 92%  
187 4% 90%  
188 0.7% 86%  
189 1.3% 85%  
190 5% 84%  
191 3% 79%  
192 1.4% 77%  
193 6% 75%  
194 4% 70%  
195 0.7% 66%  
196 0.8% 65%  
197 0.7% 64%  
198 2% 63%  
199 5% 61%  
200 0.7% 56%  
201 2% 56%  
202 1.4% 54%  
203 4% 52% Median
204 5% 48%  
205 4% 44%  
206 6% 40%  
207 5% 34%  
208 2% 29%  
209 3% 27%  
210 0.6% 24%  
211 4% 24%  
212 0.8% 20%  
213 0.7% 19%  
214 3% 18%  
215 1.1% 16%  
216 2% 15%  
217 1.5% 13%  
218 1.1% 11%  
219 0.3% 10%  
220 0.1% 10%  
221 0.8% 10%  
222 1.2% 9%  
223 3% 8%  
224 2% 5%  
225 0.6% 3%  
226 0.3% 3%  
227 0.3% 2%  
228 0.7% 2%  
229 0.2% 1.2%  
230 0.5% 1.1%  
231 0.1% 0.6%  
232 0.1% 0.5%  
233 0.1% 0.4%  
234 0.1% 0.3%  
235 0.1% 0.2%  
236 0.1% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.8%  
35 0.2% 99.6%  
36 5% 99.4%  
37 4% 94%  
38 4% 91%  
39 3% 87%  
40 1.3% 84%  
41 7% 83%  
42 13% 75%  
43 9% 62%  
44 9% 53% Median
45 3% 44%  
46 19% 41%  
47 11% 22%  
48 5% 11%  
49 3% 7%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.8% 2%  
52 0.2% 1.1%  
53 0.1% 0.8%  
54 0.2% 0.7%  
55 0.3% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 99.9% Last Result
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.1% 99.8%  
38 0.1% 99.8%  
39 3% 99.7%  
40 2% 97%  
41 2% 95%  
42 0.7% 93%  
43 2% 93%  
44 0.7% 91%  
45 3% 90%  
46 0.6% 87%  
47 7% 86%  
48 13% 79%  
49 0.3% 66%  
50 30% 66% Median
51 25% 36%  
52 0.2% 11%  
53 10% 11%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Median
1 0.1% 45%  
2 1.1% 44%  
3 19% 43%  
4 24% 24% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 385 100% 367–403 363–407 359–409 353–415
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 384 100% 365–402 361–405 358–407 352–412
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 378 100% 360–396 356–399 353–403 347–408
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 378 100% 360–396 356–399 353–403 347–408
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 334 75% 315–354 311–358 308–362 301–366
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 334 75% 315–354 311–358 308–362 301–366
Conservative Party 317 334 75% 315–354 311–358 308–362 301–366
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 336 78% 317–355 312–360 308–362 303–369
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 314 298 2% 278–317 274–321 270–324 266–331
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 297 2% 277–316 273–320 269–323 265–330
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 295 0.8% 276–314 271–319 269–323 262–328
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 253 0% 235–271 232–275 228–278 223–283
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 252 0% 234–269 231–275 227–276 221–282
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 247 0% 229–266 226–270 224–273 219–279
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 246 0% 228–264 224–268 222–272 216–278
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 246 0% 228–264 224–268 222–272 216–278
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 205 0% 187–221 186–224 182–228 179–232
Labour Party – Change UK 262 203 0% 187–219 184–224 181–226 176–231
Labour Party 262 203 0% 187–219 184–224 181–226 176–231

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
347 0.1% 100%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.8%  
350 0% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.7%  
353 0.2% 99.6%  
354 0.2% 99.4%  
355 0.3% 99.2%  
356 0.1% 99.0% Last Result
357 0.1% 98.9%  
358 1.2% 98.8%  
359 0.4% 98%  
360 0.3% 97%  
361 1.2% 97%  
362 0.6% 96%  
363 2% 95%  
364 1.5% 93%  
365 0.4% 92%  
366 0.7% 91%  
367 0.7% 91%  
368 2% 90%  
369 0.9% 88%  
370 1.4% 87%  
371 3% 86%  
372 0.8% 83%  
373 1.0% 82%  
374 1.2% 81%  
375 1.0% 80%  
376 3% 79%  
377 4% 76%  
378 2% 72%  
379 2% 69%  
380 3% 67%  
381 2% 64%  
382 4% 61%  
383 1.4% 57%  
384 5% 56% Median
385 1.4% 51%  
386 4% 50%  
387 1.0% 46%  
388 4% 45%  
389 0.6% 41%  
390 1.4% 40%  
391 8% 39%  
392 0.8% 31%  
393 0.8% 30%  
394 1.2% 30%  
395 5% 28%  
396 2% 24%  
397 0.7% 22%  
398 1.3% 21%  
399 4% 20%  
400 1.4% 16%  
401 1.1% 15%  
402 2% 13%  
403 2% 11%  
404 2% 10%  
405 2% 7%  
406 0.6% 6%  
407 2% 5%  
408 1.1% 4%  
409 0.6% 3%  
410 0.4% 2%  
411 0.2% 2%  
412 0.6% 1.4%  
413 0.1% 0.8%  
414 0.1% 0.6%  
415 0.3% 0.5%  
416 0% 0.2%  
417 0.1% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0.1% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.7%  
351 0.1% 99.6%  
352 0.3% 99.6% Last Result
353 0.2% 99.3%  
354 0.3% 99.2%  
355 0.7% 98.9%  
356 0.2% 98%  
357 0.1% 98%  
358 0.9% 98%  
359 0.6% 97%  
360 0.9% 96%  
361 1.2% 96%  
362 0.5% 94%  
363 1.5% 94%  
364 2% 92%  
365 1.4% 91%  
366 0.6% 89%  
367 1.2% 89%  
368 1.2% 87%  
369 0.5% 86%  
370 1.4% 86%  
371 3% 84%  
372 0.8% 81%  
373 3% 80%  
374 1.0% 77%  
375 3% 76%  
376 1.3% 73%  
377 5% 72%  
378 2% 67%  
379 0.7% 65%  
380 5% 64%  
381 2% 59%  
382 4% 56%  
383 2% 52%  
384 3% 50% Median
385 3% 47%  
386 3% 44%  
387 1.5% 41%  
388 1.3% 40%  
389 0.9% 39%  
390 1.5% 38%  
391 7% 36%  
392 1.2% 29%  
393 1.3% 28%  
394 0.6% 26%  
395 7% 26%  
396 1.4% 19%  
397 1.0% 17%  
398 2% 16%  
399 1.0% 14%  
400 0.8% 13%  
401 0.7% 12%  
402 2% 12%  
403 2% 10%  
404 3% 8%  
405 2% 5%  
406 0.6% 4%  
407 0.8% 3%  
408 0.4% 2%  
409 0.3% 2%  
410 0.1% 1.4%  
411 0.4% 1.3%  
412 0.6% 1.0%  
413 0.1% 0.4%  
414 0% 0.2%  
415 0% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0.1% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.1% 99.7%  
347 0.1% 99.6%  
348 0.1% 99.5%  
349 0.6% 99.4%  
350 0.2% 98.8%  
351 0.5% 98.6%  
352 0.3% 98%  
353 0.4% 98%  
354 0.6% 97%  
355 1.1% 97%  
356 2% 96%  
357 2% 94%  
358 1.1% 92%  
359 0.5% 91%  
360 1.4% 91%  
361 1.2% 89%  
362 1.0% 88%  
363 1.3% 87%  
364 1.1% 86%  
365 0.6% 85%  
366 3% 84%  
367 1.4% 81%  
368 0.9% 80%  
369 0.4% 79%  
370 5% 79%  
371 4% 74%  
372 4% 70%  
373 4% 66%  
374 2% 62%  
375 4% 60%  
376 4% 56%  
377 1.3% 52%  
378 5% 51% Median
379 3% 46%  
380 0.8% 44%  
381 0.8% 43%  
382 2% 42%  
383 2% 40%  
384 0.9% 38%  
385 2% 37%  
386 5% 35%  
387 3% 30%  
388 1.0% 27%  
389 0.7% 26%  
390 6% 25%  
391 0.9% 20%  
392 3% 19%  
393 0.8% 16%  
394 4% 15%  
395 0.6% 11%  
396 2% 10%  
397 2% 8%  
398 0.6% 6%  
399 2% 6%  
400 0.2% 4%  
401 0.9% 4%  
402 0.3% 3%  
403 0.9% 3%  
404 0.3% 2%  
405 0.5% 1.4%  
406 0.2% 0.9%  
407 0.1% 0.7%  
408 0.1% 0.6%  
409 0.1% 0.5%  
410 0.1% 0.4%  
411 0.2% 0.4%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.1% 99.7%  
347 0.1% 99.6%  
348 0.1% 99.5%  
349 0.6% 99.4%  
350 0.2% 98.8%  
351 0.5% 98.6%  
352 0.3% 98%  
353 0.4% 98%  
354 0.6% 97%  
355 1.1% 97%  
356 2% 96%  
357 2% 94%  
358 1.1% 92%  
359 0.5% 91%  
360 1.4% 91%  
361 1.2% 89%  
362 1.0% 88%  
363 1.3% 87%  
364 1.1% 86%  
365 0.6% 85%  
366 3% 84%  
367 1.4% 81%  
368 0.9% 80%  
369 0.4% 79%  
370 5% 79%  
371 4% 74%  
372 4% 70%  
373 4% 66%  
374 2% 62%  
375 4% 60%  
376 4% 56%  
377 1.3% 52%  
378 5% 51% Median
379 3% 46%  
380 0.8% 44%  
381 0.8% 43%  
382 2% 42%  
383 2% 40%  
384 0.9% 38%  
385 2% 37%  
386 5% 35%  
387 3% 30%  
388 1.0% 27%  
389 0.7% 26%  
390 6% 25%  
391 0.9% 20%  
392 3% 19%  
393 0.8% 16%  
394 4% 15%  
395 0.6% 11%  
396 2% 10%  
397 2% 8%  
398 0.6% 6%  
399 2% 6%  
400 0.2% 4%  
401 0.9% 4%  
402 0.3% 3%  
403 0.9% 3%  
404 0.3% 2%  
405 0.5% 1.4%  
406 0.2% 0.9%  
407 0.1% 0.7%  
408 0.1% 0.6%  
409 0.1% 0.5%  
410 0.1% 0.4%  
411 0.2% 0.4%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.1% 99.7%  
301 0.1% 99.6%  
302 0.1% 99.5%  
303 0.2% 99.3%  
304 0.5% 99.2%  
305 0.1% 98.6%  
306 0.4% 98%  
307 0.3% 98%  
308 1.4% 98%  
309 0.6% 96%  
310 0.6% 96%  
311 0.7% 95%  
312 1.1% 95%  
313 1.4% 93%  
314 0.9% 92%  
315 2% 91%  
316 1.0% 89%  
317 0.8% 88% Last Result
318 1.0% 87%  
319 0.3% 86%  
320 4% 86%  
321 1.3% 83%  
322 0.5% 81%  
323 0.8% 81%  
324 3% 80%  
325 2% 77%  
326 4% 75% Majority
327 2% 71%  
328 0.9% 68%  
329 1.4% 68%  
330 6% 66%  
331 3% 60%  
332 5% 57%  
333 1.5% 52%  
334 2% 51% Median
335 3% 49%  
336 3% 46%  
337 0.7% 43%  
338 1.3% 42%  
339 2% 41%  
340 1.1% 39%  
341 0.8% 38%  
342 1.0% 37%  
343 6% 37%  
344 6% 30%  
345 2% 24%  
346 0.8% 22%  
347 0.9% 21%  
348 1.3% 20%  
349 1.2% 19%  
350 1.3% 17%  
351 2% 16%  
352 2% 14%  
353 0.9% 12%  
354 1.2% 11%  
355 2% 10%  
356 1.4% 7%  
357 0.7% 6%  
358 0.7% 5%  
359 0.9% 5%  
360 0.6% 4%  
361 0.4% 3%  
362 0.8% 3%  
363 1.0% 2%  
364 0.1% 0.9%  
365 0.3% 0.8%  
366 0.2% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.1% 99.7%  
301 0.1% 99.6%  
302 0.1% 99.5%  
303 0.2% 99.3%  
304 0.5% 99.2%  
305 0.1% 98.6%  
306 0.4% 98%  
307 0.3% 98%  
308 1.4% 98%  
309 0.6% 96%  
310 0.6% 96%  
311 0.7% 95%  
312 1.1% 95%  
313 1.4% 93%  
314 0.9% 92%  
315 2% 91%  
316 1.0% 89%  
317 0.8% 88% Last Result
318 1.0% 87%  
319 0.3% 86%  
320 4% 86%  
321 1.3% 83%  
322 0.5% 81%  
323 0.8% 81%  
324 3% 80%  
325 2% 77%  
326 4% 75% Majority
327 2% 71%  
328 0.9% 68%  
329 1.4% 68%  
330 6% 66%  
331 3% 60%  
332 5% 57%  
333 1.5% 52%  
334 2% 51% Median
335 3% 49%  
336 3% 46%  
337 0.7% 43%  
338 1.3% 42%  
339 2% 41%  
340 1.1% 39%  
341 0.8% 38%  
342 1.0% 37%  
343 6% 37%  
344 6% 30%  
345 2% 24%  
346 0.8% 22%  
347 0.9% 21%  
348 1.3% 20%  
349 1.2% 19%  
350 1.3% 17%  
351 2% 16%  
352 2% 14%  
353 0.9% 12%  
354 1.2% 11%  
355 2% 10%  
356 1.4% 7%  
357 0.7% 6%  
358 0.7% 5%  
359 0.9% 5%  
360 0.6% 4%  
361 0.4% 3%  
362 0.8% 3%  
363 1.0% 2%  
364 0.1% 0.9%  
365 0.3% 0.8%  
366 0.2% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.1% 99.7%  
301 0.1% 99.6%  
302 0.1% 99.5%  
303 0.2% 99.3%  
304 0.5% 99.2%  
305 0.1% 98.6%  
306 0.4% 98%  
307 0.3% 98%  
308 1.4% 98%  
309 0.6% 96%  
310 0.6% 96%  
311 0.7% 95%  
312 1.1% 95%  
313 1.4% 93%  
314 0.9% 92%  
315 2% 91%  
316 1.0% 89%  
317 0.8% 88% Last Result
318 1.0% 87%  
319 0.3% 86%  
320 4% 86%  
321 1.3% 83%  
322 0.5% 81%  
323 0.8% 81%  
324 3% 80%  
325 2% 77%  
326 4% 75% Majority
327 2% 71%  
328 0.9% 68%  
329 1.4% 68%  
330 6% 66%  
331 3% 60%  
332 5% 57%  
333 1.5% 52%  
334 2% 51% Median
335 3% 49%  
336 3% 46%  
337 0.7% 43%  
338 1.3% 42%  
339 2% 41%  
340 1.1% 39%  
341 0.8% 38%  
342 1.0% 37%  
343 6% 37%  
344 6% 30%  
345 2% 24%  
346 0.8% 22%  
347 0.9% 21%  
348 1.3% 20%  
349 1.2% 19%  
350 1.3% 17%  
351 2% 16%  
352 2% 14%  
353 0.9% 12%  
354 1.2% 11%  
355 2% 10%  
356 1.4% 7%  
357 0.7% 6%  
358 0.7% 5%  
359 0.9% 5%  
360 0.6% 4%  
361 0.4% 3%  
362 0.8% 3%  
363 1.0% 2%  
364 0.1% 0.9%  
365 0.3% 0.8%  
366 0.2% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.8%  
300 0.1% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.7%  
302 0.1% 99.6%  
303 0.1% 99.5%  
304 0.1% 99.4%  
305 0.1% 99.3%  
306 0.2% 99.2%  
307 0.7% 99.0%  
308 1.2% 98%  
309 0.5% 97%  
310 0.2% 97%  
311 0.8% 96%  
312 0.8% 96%  
313 2% 95%  
314 0.4% 93%  
315 1.1% 93%  
316 1.1% 91%  
317 1.4% 90%  
318 1.4% 89%  
319 0.3% 88%  
320 3% 87%  
321 0.9% 84% Last Result
322 0.5% 84%  
323 1.0% 83%  
324 2% 82%  
325 2% 80%  
326 1.3% 78% Majority
327 2% 76%  
328 2% 74%  
329 4% 72%  
330 3% 68%  
331 3% 65%  
332 3% 62%  
333 1.4% 58%  
334 4% 57% Median
335 2% 53%  
336 2% 50%  
337 0.9% 48%  
338 4% 47%  
339 2% 44%  
340 1.3% 42%  
341 0.9% 41%  
342 0.8% 40%  
343 7% 39%  
344 3% 32%  
345 2% 29%  
346 1.0% 27%  
347 0.9% 26%  
348 5% 25%  
349 0.9% 20%  
350 0.7% 19%  
351 2% 19%  
352 3% 17%  
353 1.4% 15%  
354 1.2% 13%  
355 3% 12%  
356 1.3% 9%  
357 0.7% 8%  
358 0.7% 7%  
359 1.0% 6%  
360 1.4% 5%  
361 0.4% 4%  
362 0.9% 3%  
363 1.0% 2%  
364 0.2% 1.5%  
365 0.3% 1.3%  
366 0.2% 0.9%  
367 0.1% 0.8%  
368 0% 0.6%  
369 0.4% 0.6%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0% 99.7%  
265 0.1% 99.7%  
266 0.2% 99.6%  
267 0.3% 99.4%  
268 0.1% 99.2%  
269 1.0% 99.1%  
270 0.8% 98%  
271 0.4% 97%  
272 0.6% 97%  
273 0.9% 96%  
274 0.7% 95%  
275 0.7% 95%  
276 1.4% 94%  
277 2% 93%  
278 1.2% 90%  
279 0.9% 89%  
280 2% 88%  
281 2% 86%  
282 1.3% 84%  
283 1.2% 83%  
284 1.3% 81%  
285 0.9% 80%  
286 0.8% 79%  
287 2% 78%  
288 6% 76%  
289 6% 70%  
290 1.0% 63%  
291 0.8% 63%  
292 1.1% 62%  
293 2% 61%  
294 1.3% 59%  
295 0.7% 58%  
296 3% 57%  
297 3% 54%  
298 2% 51% Median
299 1.5% 49%  
300 5% 48%  
301 3% 43%  
302 6% 40%  
303 1.4% 34%  
304 0.9% 32%  
305 2% 32%  
306 4% 29%  
307 2% 25%  
308 3% 23%  
309 0.8% 20%  
310 0.5% 19%  
311 1.3% 19%  
312 4% 17%  
313 0.3% 14%  
314 1.0% 14% Last Result
315 0.8% 13%  
316 1.0% 12%  
317 2% 11%  
318 0.9% 9%  
319 1.4% 8%  
320 1.1% 7%  
321 0.7% 5%  
322 0.6% 5%  
323 0.6% 4%  
324 1.4% 4%  
325 0.3% 2%  
326 0.4% 2% Majority
327 0.1% 2%  
328 0.5% 1.4%  
329 0.2% 0.8%  
330 0.1% 0.7%  
331 0.1% 0.5%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0.1% 0.3%  
334 0% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0% 99.7%  
264 0.1% 99.7%  
265 0.2% 99.6%  
266 0.3% 99.4%  
267 0.1% 99.2%  
268 1.0% 99.1%  
269 0.8% 98%  
270 0.4% 97%  
271 0.6% 97%  
272 0.9% 96%  
273 0.7% 95%  
274 0.7% 95%  
275 1.4% 94%  
276 2% 93%  
277 1.2% 90%  
278 0.9% 89%  
279 2% 88%  
280 2% 86%  
281 1.3% 84%  
282 1.2% 83%  
283 1.3% 81%  
284 0.9% 80%  
285 0.8% 79%  
286 2% 78%  
287 6% 76%  
288 6% 70%  
289 1.0% 63%  
290 0.8% 63%  
291 1.1% 62%  
292 2% 61%  
293 1.3% 59%  
294 0.7% 58%  
295 3% 57%  
296 3% 54%  
297 2% 51% Median
298 1.5% 49%  
299 5% 48%  
300 3% 43%  
301 6% 40%  
302 1.4% 34%  
303 0.9% 32%  
304 2% 32%  
305 4% 29%  
306 2% 25%  
307 3% 23%  
308 0.8% 20%  
309 0.5% 19%  
310 1.3% 19%  
311 4% 17%  
312 0.3% 14%  
313 1.0% 14% Last Result
314 0.8% 13%  
315 0.9% 12%  
316 2% 11%  
317 0.9% 9%  
318 1.4% 8%  
319 1.1% 7%  
320 0.7% 5%  
321 0.6% 5%  
322 0.6% 4%  
323 1.4% 4%  
324 0.3% 2%  
325 0.4% 2%  
326 0.1% 2% Majority
327 0.5% 1.4%  
328 0.2% 0.8%  
329 0.1% 0.7%  
330 0.1% 0.5%  
331 0.1% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0.4% 99.8%  
263 0% 99.4%  
264 0.1% 99.4%  
265 0.2% 99.2%  
266 0.3% 99.1%  
267 0.2% 98.7%  
268 1.0% 98.5%  
269 0.9% 98%  
270 0.4% 97%  
271 1.4% 96%  
272 1.0% 95%  
273 0.7% 94%  
274 0.7% 93%  
275 1.3% 92%  
276 3% 91%  
277 1.2% 88%  
278 1.4% 87%  
279 3% 85%  
280 2% 83%  
281 0.7% 81%  
282 0.9% 81%  
283 5% 80%  
284 0.9% 75%  
285 1.0% 74%  
286 2% 73%  
287 3% 71%  
288 7% 68%  
289 0.8% 61%  
290 0.9% 60%  
291 1.3% 59%  
292 2% 58%  
293 4% 56%  
294 0.9% 53%  
295 2% 52%  
296 2% 50%  
297 4% 47% Median
298 1.4% 43%  
299 3% 42%  
300 3% 38%  
301 3% 35%  
302 4% 32%  
303 3% 28%  
304 2% 26%  
305 1.3% 24%  
306 2% 22%  
307 2% 20%  
308 1.0% 18%  
309 0.5% 17% Last Result
310 0.9% 16%  
311 3% 16%  
312 0.3% 13%  
313 1.4% 12%  
314 1.4% 11%  
315 1.1% 10%  
316 1.1% 9%  
317 0.4% 7%  
318 2% 7%  
319 0.8% 5%  
320 0.8% 4%  
321 0.2% 4%  
322 0.5% 3%  
323 1.2% 3%  
324 0.7% 2%  
325 0.2% 1.0%  
326 0.1% 0.8% Majority
327 0.1% 0.7%  
328 0.1% 0.6%  
329 0.1% 0.5%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0.2% 99.9%  
221 0.1% 99.6%  
222 0.1% 99.6%  
223 0.1% 99.5%  
224 0.1% 99.4%  
225 0.2% 99.3%  
226 0.5% 99.1%  
227 0.3% 98.6%  
228 0.9% 98%  
229 0.3% 97%  
230 0.9% 97%  
231 0.2% 96%  
232 2% 96%  
233 0.6% 94%  
234 2% 94%  
235 2% 92%  
236 0.6% 90%  
237 4% 89%  
238 0.8% 85%  
239 3% 84%  
240 0.9% 81%  
241 6% 80%  
242 0.7% 75%  
243 1.0% 74%  
244 3% 73%  
245 5% 70%  
246 2% 65%  
247 0.9% 63%  
248 2% 62%  
249 2% 60%  
250 0.8% 58%  
251 0.8% 57%  
252 3% 56%  
253 5% 54% Median
254 1.3% 49%  
255 4% 48%  
256 4% 44%  
257 2% 40%  
258 4% 38%  
259 4% 34%  
260 4% 30%  
261 5% 26%  
262 0.4% 21%  
263 0.9% 21%  
264 1.4% 20%  
265 3% 19%  
266 0.6% 16%  
267 1.1% 15%  
268 1.3% 14%  
269 1.0% 13%  
270 1.2% 12%  
271 1.4% 11%  
272 0.5% 9%  
273 1.1% 9%  
274 2% 8%  
275 2% 6%  
276 1.1% 4%  
277 0.6% 3%  
278 0.4% 3%  
279 0.3% 2%  
280 0.5% 2%  
281 0.2% 1.4%  
282 0.6% 1.2%  
283 0.1% 0.6%  
284 0.1% 0.5%  
285 0.1% 0.4%  
286 0.1% 0.3%  
287 0.1% 0.2%  
288 0.1% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0.2% 99.9%  
217 0.1% 99.7%  
218 0% 99.7%  
219 0.1% 99.6%  
220 0.1% 99.6%  
221 0.1% 99.5%  
222 0.1% 99.4%  
223 0% 99.4%  
224 0.4% 99.3%  
225 0.3% 98.9%  
226 0.7% 98.6%  
227 0.5% 98%  
228 0.9% 97%  
229 0.4% 97%  
230 0.9% 96%  
231 1.0% 95%  
232 2% 94%  
233 2% 93%  
234 2% 91%  
235 2% 89%  
236 1.0% 87%  
237 4% 86%  
238 0.6% 82%  
239 2% 81%  
240 2% 80%  
241 8% 78%  
242 1.0% 69%  
243 1.3% 68%  
244 2% 67%  
245 2% 65%  
246 2% 62%  
247 0.9% 61%  
248 0.9% 60%  
249 4% 59%  
250 2% 55%  
251 1.2% 52%  
252 2% 51%  
253 4% 50% Median
254 4% 46%  
255 4% 42%  
256 4% 38%  
257 4% 34%  
258 4% 31%  
259 3% 27%  
260 4% 24%  
261 1.3% 20%  
262 0.5% 19%  
263 0.5% 19%  
264 1.0% 18%  
265 3% 17%  
266 1.3% 15%  
267 1.1% 13%  
268 2% 12%  
269 0.5% 10%  
270 0.5% 10%  
271 2% 9%  
272 0.3% 8%  
273 1.3% 7%  
274 0.8% 6%  
275 2% 5%  
276 0.9% 3%  
277 0.5% 2%  
278 0.2% 2%  
279 0.6% 2%  
280 0.5% 1.2%  
281 0.1% 0.7%  
282 0.1% 0.5%  
283 0.1% 0.4%  
284 0.1% 0.4%  
285 0.1% 0.3%  
286 0.1% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
212 0.1% 100%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.8%  
218 0.1% 99.8%  
219 0.6% 99.6%  
220 0.4% 99.0%  
221 0.1% 98.7%  
222 0.3% 98.6%  
223 0.4% 98%  
224 0.8% 98%  
225 0.6% 97%  
226 2% 96%  
227 3% 95%  
228 2% 92%  
229 2% 90%  
230 0.7% 88%  
231 0.8% 88%  
232 1.0% 87%  
233 2% 86%  
234 1.0% 84%  
235 1.4% 83%  
236 7% 81%  
237 0.6% 74%  
238 1.3% 74%  
239 1.2% 72%  
240 7% 71%  
241 1.5% 64%  
242 0.9% 62%  
243 1.3% 61%  
244 1.5% 60%  
245 3% 59%  
246 3% 56%  
247 3% 53% Median
248 2% 50%  
249 4% 48%  
250 2% 44%  
251 5% 41%  
252 0.7% 36%  
253 2% 35%  
254 5% 33%  
255 1.3% 28%  
256 3% 27%  
257 1.0% 24%  
258 3% 23%  
259 0.8% 20%  
260 3% 19%  
261 1.4% 16%  
262 0.5% 14%  
263 1.2% 14%  
264 1.2% 12%  
265 0.6% 11%  
266 1.4% 11%  
267 2% 9%  
268 1.5% 8%  
269 0.5% 6%  
270 1.2% 6%  
271 0.9% 4%  
272 0.6% 4%  
273 0.9% 3%  
274 0.1% 2%  
275 0.2% 2%  
276 0.7% 2%  
277 0.3% 1.1%  
278 0.2% 0.8% Last Result
279 0.3% 0.7%  
280 0.1% 0.4%  
281 0.1% 0.4%  
282 0.1% 0.3%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0.1% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
211 0% 100%  
212 0.1% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0.1% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.8%  
216 0.3% 99.8%  
217 0.1% 99.5%  
218 0.1% 99.4%  
219 0.6% 99.2%  
220 0.2% 98.6%  
221 0.4% 98%  
222 0.6% 98%  
223 1.1% 97%  
224 2% 96%  
225 0.6% 95%  
226 2% 94%  
227 2% 93%  
228 2% 90%  
229 2% 89%  
230 1.1% 87%  
231 1.4% 85%  
232 4% 84%  
233 1.3% 80%  
234 0.7% 79%  
235 2% 78%  
236 5% 76%  
237 1.2% 72%  
238 0.8% 70%  
239 0.8% 70%  
240 8% 69%  
241 1.4% 61%  
242 0.6% 60%  
243 4% 59%  
244 1.0% 55%  
245 4% 54%  
246 1.4% 50%  
247 5% 49% Median
248 1.4% 44%  
249 4% 43%  
250 2% 39%  
251 3% 36%  
252 2% 33%  
253 2% 31%  
254 4% 28%  
255 3% 24%  
256 1.0% 21%  
257 1.2% 20%  
258 1.0% 19%  
259 0.8% 18%  
260 3% 17%  
261 1.4% 14%  
262 0.9% 13%  
263 2% 12%  
264 0.7% 10%  
265 0.7% 9%  
266 0.4% 9%  
267 1.5% 8%  
268 2% 7%  
269 0.6% 5%  
270 1.2% 4%  
271 0.3% 3%  
272 0.4% 3%  
273 1.2% 2%  
274 0.1% 1.2% Last Result
275 0.1% 1.1%  
276 0.3% 1.0%  
277 0.2% 0.8%  
278 0.2% 0.6%  
279 0.1% 0.4%  
280 0.1% 0.3%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.2%  
284 0.1% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
211 0% 100%  
212 0.1% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0.1% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.8%  
216 0.3% 99.8%  
217 0.1% 99.5%  
218 0.1% 99.4%  
219 0.6% 99.2%  
220 0.2% 98.6%  
221 0.4% 98%  
222 0.6% 98%  
223 1.1% 97%  
224 2% 96%  
225 0.6% 95%  
226 2% 94%  
227 2% 93%  
228 2% 90%  
229 2% 89%  
230 1.1% 87%  
231 1.4% 85%  
232 4% 84%  
233 1.3% 80%  
234 0.7% 79%  
235 2% 78%  
236 5% 76%  
237 1.2% 72%  
238 0.8% 70%  
239 0.8% 70%  
240 8% 69%  
241 1.4% 61%  
242 0.6% 60%  
243 4% 59%  
244 1.0% 55%  
245 4% 54%  
246 1.4% 50%  
247 5% 49% Median
248 1.4% 44%  
249 4% 43%  
250 2% 39%  
251 3% 36%  
252 2% 33%  
253 2% 31%  
254 4% 28%  
255 3% 24%  
256 1.0% 21%  
257 1.2% 20%  
258 1.0% 19%  
259 0.8% 18%  
260 3% 17%  
261 1.4% 14%  
262 0.9% 13%  
263 2% 12%  
264 0.7% 10%  
265 0.7% 9%  
266 0.4% 9%  
267 1.5% 8%  
268 2% 7%  
269 0.6% 5%  
270 1.2% 4%  
271 0.3% 3%  
272 0.4% 3%  
273 1.2% 2%  
274 0.1% 1.2% Last Result
275 0.1% 1.1%  
276 0.3% 1.0%  
277 0.2% 0.8%  
278 0.2% 0.6%  
279 0.1% 0.4%  
280 0.1% 0.3%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.2%  
284 0.1% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0.1% 99.9%  
175 0% 99.8%  
176 0.1% 99.8%  
177 0.1% 99.7%  
178 0.1% 99.7%  
179 0.1% 99.6%  
180 1.0% 99.5%  
181 0.5% 98.5%  
182 0.7% 98%  
183 0.3% 97%  
184 0.6% 97%  
185 1.3% 96%  
186 1.0% 95%  
187 5% 94%  
188 1.0% 90%  
189 2% 89%  
190 2% 87%  
191 3% 85%  
192 0.9% 82%  
193 6% 81%  
194 8% 75%  
195 0.5% 68%  
196 2% 67%  
197 0.5% 65%  
198 2% 65%  
199 2% 62%  
200 0.6% 61%  
201 1.3% 60%  
202 4% 59%  
203 4% 55% Median
204 0.8% 51%  
205 4% 50%  
206 4% 46%  
207 4% 42%  
208 6% 38%  
209 4% 32%  
210 3% 28%  
211 0.6% 25%  
212 0.5% 24%  
213 1.1% 24%  
214 6% 23%  
215 0.4% 17%  
216 0.4% 16%  
217 1.0% 16%  
218 1.5% 15%  
219 2% 13%  
220 1.0% 11%  
221 0.4% 10%  
222 0.8% 10%  
223 2% 9%  
224 2% 7%  
225 0.8% 4%  
226 0.8% 4%  
227 0.2% 3%  
228 0.5% 3%  
229 0.2% 2%  
230 0.7% 2%  
231 0.7% 1.3%  
232 0.1% 0.6%  
233 0.1% 0.5%  
234 0.1% 0.4%  
235 0.1% 0.4%  
236 0.1% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0.1% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0.1% 99.9%  
175 0% 99.8%  
176 0.4% 99.8%  
177 0.1% 99.4%  
178 0.4% 99.3%  
179 0.3% 98.8%  
180 0.7% 98%  
181 0.6% 98%  
182 0.5% 97%  
183 0.9% 97%  
184 1.3% 96%  
185 2% 94%  
186 2% 92%  
187 4% 90%  
188 0.7% 86%  
189 1.3% 85%  
190 5% 84%  
191 3% 79%  
192 1.4% 77%  
193 6% 75%  
194 4% 70%  
195 0.7% 66%  
196 0.8% 65%  
197 0.7% 64%  
198 2% 63%  
199 5% 61%  
200 0.7% 56%  
201 2% 56%  
202 1.4% 54%  
203 4% 52% Median
204 5% 48%  
205 4% 44%  
206 6% 40%  
207 5% 34%  
208 2% 29%  
209 3% 27%  
210 0.6% 24%  
211 4% 24%  
212 0.8% 20%  
213 0.7% 19%  
214 3% 18%  
215 1.1% 16%  
216 2% 15%  
217 1.5% 13%  
218 1.1% 11%  
219 0.3% 10%  
220 0.1% 10%  
221 0.8% 10%  
222 1.2% 9%  
223 3% 8%  
224 2% 5%  
225 0.6% 3%  
226 0.3% 3%  
227 0.3% 2%  
228 0.7% 2%  
229 0.2% 1.2%  
230 0.5% 1.1%  
231 0.1% 0.6%  
232 0.1% 0.5%  
233 0.1% 0.4%  
234 0.1% 0.3%  
235 0.1% 0.2%  
236 0.1% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0.1% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0.1% 99.9%  
175 0% 99.8%  
176 0.4% 99.8%  
177 0.1% 99.4%  
178 0.4% 99.3%  
179 0.3% 98.8%  
180 0.7% 98%  
181 0.6% 98%  
182 0.5% 97%  
183 0.9% 97%  
184 1.3% 96%  
185 2% 94%  
186 2% 92%  
187 4% 90%  
188 0.7% 86%  
189 1.3% 85%  
190 5% 84%  
191 3% 79%  
192 1.4% 77%  
193 6% 75%  
194 4% 70%  
195 0.7% 66%  
196 0.8% 65%  
197 0.7% 64%  
198 2% 63%  
199 5% 61%  
200 0.7% 56%  
201 2% 56%  
202 1.4% 54%  
203 4% 52% Median
204 5% 48%  
205 4% 44%  
206 6% 40%  
207 5% 34%  
208 2% 29%  
209 3% 27%  
210 0.6% 24%  
211 4% 24%  
212 0.8% 20%  
213 0.7% 19%  
214 3% 18%  
215 1.1% 16%  
216 2% 15%  
217 1.5% 13%  
218 1.1% 11%  
219 0.3% 10%  
220 0.1% 10%  
221 0.8% 10%  
222 1.2% 9%  
223 3% 8%  
224 2% 5%  
225 0.6% 3%  
226 0.3% 3%  
227 0.3% 2%  
228 0.7% 2%  
229 0.2% 1.2%  
230 0.5% 1.1%  
231 0.1% 0.6%  
232 0.1% 0.5%  
233 0.1% 0.4%  
234 0.1% 0.3%  
235 0.1% 0.2%  
236 0.1% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations