Opinion Poll by Panelbase, 13–14 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 43.2% 41.2–45.2% 40.7–45.8% 40.2–46.3% 39.2–47.2%
Labour Party 41.0% 30.2% 28.4–32.1% 27.9–32.6% 27.4–33.1% 26.6–34.0%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 15.1% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.0% 13.0–17.4% 12.4–18.2%
Brexit Party 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Green Party 1.7% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.1% 1.2–3.5%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 355 332–375 324–381 318–387 309–400
Labour Party 262 187 173–207 164–216 159–222 153–227
Liberal Democrats 12 36 32–43 31–45 30–47 30–50
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 35 47 40–51 39–53 33–53 33–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.7%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0.2% 99.5%  
310 0.1% 99.3%  
311 0.2% 99.2%  
312 0.1% 99.0%  
313 0.1% 98.9%  
314 0.4% 98.8%  
315 0.1% 98%  
316 0.2% 98%  
317 0.6% 98% Last Result
318 0.4% 98%  
319 0.4% 97%  
320 0.6% 97%  
321 0.2% 96%  
322 0.2% 96%  
323 0.7% 96%  
324 0.4% 95%  
325 0.3% 95%  
326 0.3% 95% Majority
327 0.5% 94%  
328 0.3% 94%  
329 0.5% 94%  
330 2% 93%  
331 0.4% 91%  
332 1.3% 91%  
333 0.7% 90%  
334 0.5% 89%  
335 3% 89%  
336 0.6% 86%  
337 0.9% 85%  
338 2% 85%  
339 2% 83%  
340 0.8% 81%  
341 0.9% 81%  
342 1.2% 80%  
343 1.1% 78%  
344 1.1% 77%  
345 3% 76%  
346 0.3% 73%  
347 3% 73%  
348 2% 70%  
349 3% 68%  
350 3% 65%  
351 0.8% 62%  
352 4% 62%  
353 3% 57%  
354 2% 54%  
355 3% 52% Median
356 2% 50%  
357 5% 48%  
358 3% 44%  
359 3% 40%  
360 2% 37%  
361 2% 35%  
362 0.6% 34%  
363 5% 33%  
364 2% 28%  
365 3% 26%  
366 1.3% 23%  
367 2% 22%  
368 3% 20%  
369 0.9% 17%  
370 2% 16%  
371 0.7% 14%  
372 0.6% 13%  
373 2% 13%  
374 0.8% 11%  
375 0.9% 10%  
376 0.8% 9%  
377 0.9% 9%  
378 0.5% 8%  
379 0.3% 7%  
380 2% 7%  
381 0.3% 5%  
382 0.5% 5%  
383 0.3% 4%  
384 0.2% 4%  
385 0.5% 4%  
386 0.4% 3%  
387 0.4% 3%  
388 0.2% 2%  
389 0.2% 2%  
390 0.1% 2%  
391 0.2% 2%  
392 0.3% 2%  
393 0.2% 1.4%  
394 0% 1.2%  
395 0.1% 1.1%  
396 0.1% 1.0%  
397 0.2% 0.9%  
398 0% 0.7%  
399 0.1% 0.7%  
400 0.2% 0.6%  
401 0.1% 0.4%  
402 0% 0.3%  
403 0.1% 0.3%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.8%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.7%  
152 0.1% 99.6%  
153 0.1% 99.5%  
154 0.6% 99.4%  
155 0.4% 98.8%  
156 0.2% 98%  
157 0.3% 98%  
158 0% 98%  
159 0.5% 98%  
160 0.2% 97%  
161 1.0% 97%  
162 0.2% 96%  
163 0.4% 96%  
164 0.7% 96%  
165 0.1% 95%  
166 0.4% 95%  
167 0.4% 94%  
168 0.8% 94%  
169 0.4% 93%  
170 0.1% 93%  
171 0.9% 93%  
172 0.5% 92%  
173 2% 91%  
174 1.1% 90%  
175 0.7% 88%  
176 0.4% 88%  
177 2% 87%  
178 4% 85%  
179 3% 81%  
180 2% 78%  
181 2% 76%  
182 3% 74%  
183 2% 71%  
184 2% 69%  
185 7% 68%  
186 6% 60%  
187 6% 55% Median
188 0.2% 49%  
189 1.5% 49%  
190 3% 47%  
191 2% 44%  
192 2% 41%  
193 0.5% 39%  
194 5% 39%  
195 4% 34%  
196 1.2% 30%  
197 0.3% 29%  
198 4% 28%  
199 0.4% 25%  
200 3% 24%  
201 0.9% 21%  
202 0.3% 20%  
203 3% 20%  
204 2% 17%  
205 2% 16%  
206 3% 13%  
207 1.1% 11%  
208 2% 9%  
209 0.3% 8%  
210 0% 7%  
211 0.2% 7%  
212 0.6% 7%  
213 0.8% 6%  
214 0.1% 6%  
215 0.2% 6%  
216 0.6% 5%  
217 1.2% 5%  
218 0.6% 4%  
219 0.3% 3%  
220 0% 3%  
221 0.1% 3%  
222 0.2% 3%  
223 1.2% 2%  
224 0.2% 1.1%  
225 0.1% 0.8%  
226 0.1% 0.7%  
227 0.2% 0.7%  
228 0.2% 0.5%  
229 0% 0.3%  
230 0.1% 0.3%  
231 0% 0.2%  
232 0% 0.2%  
233 0% 0.2%  
234 0.1% 0.2%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 100%  
30 3% 99.8%  
31 4% 97%  
32 7% 93%  
33 13% 87%  
34 1.4% 74%  
35 6% 72%  
36 21% 66% Median
37 10% 45%  
38 5% 35%  
39 3% 30%  
40 2% 27%  
41 5% 25%  
42 7% 20%  
43 4% 13%  
44 4% 10%  
45 1.0% 5%  
46 1.2% 4%  
47 0.8% 3%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.6% 1.4%  
50 0.6% 0.8%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.8%  
32 0.1% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.7%  
34 0.2% 97%  
35 0.4% 97% Last Result
36 0.6% 97%  
37 0.8% 96%  
38 0.3% 95%  
39 4% 95%  
40 2% 92%  
41 7% 90%  
42 3% 83%  
43 1.2% 79%  
44 0.1% 78%  
45 20% 78%  
46 0.1% 58%  
47 10% 58% Median
48 5% 49%  
49 0.8% 44%  
50 16% 43%  
51 20% 27%  
52 0.3% 8%  
53 5% 7%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 403 100% 380–419 374–428 368–432 359–442
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 391 100% 371–410 363–417 359–424 350–433
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 355 95% 332–375 324–381 318–387 309–400
Conservative Party 317 355 95% 332–375 324–381 318–387 309–400
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 273 0.1% 253–296 247–304 241–310 228–319
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 237 0% 218–257 211–265 204–269 195–278
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 225 0% 209–248 200–254 196–260 186–269
Labour Party 262 187 0% 173–207 164–216 159–222 153–227

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9% Last Result
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.8%  
356 0% 99.7%  
357 0.1% 99.7%  
358 0% 99.6%  
359 0.2% 99.6%  
360 0.2% 99.4%  
361 0.1% 99.1%  
362 0.1% 99.0%  
363 0.1% 98.9%  
364 0.4% 98.8%  
365 0.1% 98%  
366 0.2% 98%  
367 0.1% 98%  
368 0.8% 98%  
369 0.5% 97%  
370 0.7% 97%  
371 0.2% 96%  
372 0.2% 96%  
373 0.4% 96%  
374 0.6% 95%  
375 0.6% 95%  
376 0.3% 94%  
377 1.2% 94%  
378 0.4% 92%  
379 0.5% 92%  
380 2% 91%  
381 2% 90%  
382 0.4% 88%  
383 1.3% 88%  
384 1.0% 86%  
385 1.2% 85%  
386 2% 84%  
387 0.9% 82%  
388 0.7% 81%  
389 1.3% 81%  
390 2% 79%  
391 2% 77%  
392 1.3% 75%  
393 2% 74%  
394 3% 72%  
395 1.1% 69%  
396 2% 68%  
397 5% 66%  
398 4% 62%  
399 0.8% 58%  
400 1.3% 57%  
401 3% 56%  
402 1.4% 52% Median
403 2% 51%  
404 0.8% 49%  
405 4% 48%  
406 4% 44%  
407 5% 40%  
408 5% 35%  
409 1.2% 30%  
410 5% 29%  
411 1.3% 24%  
412 1.5% 23%  
413 4% 22%  
414 2% 18%  
415 1.4% 16%  
416 1.2% 15%  
417 1.4% 13%  
418 2% 12%  
419 2% 10%  
420 0.7% 9%  
421 0.7% 8%  
422 0.4% 7%  
423 0.2% 7%  
424 0.7% 7%  
425 0.2% 6%  
426 0.4% 6%  
427 0.4% 6%  
428 0.9% 5%  
429 0.1% 4%  
430 0.8% 4%  
431 0.2% 3%  
432 0.6% 3%  
433 0.2% 2%  
434 0.2% 2%  
435 0.2% 2%  
436 0.4% 2%  
437 0.1% 2%  
438 0.2% 1.5%  
439 0.1% 1.2%  
440 0.3% 1.1%  
441 0.3% 0.8%  
442 0.2% 0.6%  
443 0.1% 0.4%  
444 0% 0.3%  
445 0.1% 0.3%  
446 0% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.8%  
346 0% 99.8%  
347 0% 99.8%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.7%  
350 0.2% 99.6%  
351 0.1% 99.4%  
352 0.2% 99.4%  
353 0.1% 99.2%  
354 0.6% 99.0%  
355 0.4% 98%  
356 0.1% 98%  
357 0.1% 98%  
358 0.2% 98%  
359 0.6% 98%  
360 0.6% 97%  
361 0.8% 96%  
362 0.3% 96%  
363 0.3% 95%  
364 0.2% 95%  
365 0.4% 95%  
366 0.5% 94%  
367 0.3% 94%  
368 0.4% 94%  
369 0.3% 93%  
370 1.1% 93%  
371 2% 92%  
372 1.0% 90%  
373 1.1% 88%  
374 1.0% 87%  
375 0.6% 86%  
376 1.3% 86%  
377 1.4% 85%  
378 0.7% 83%  
379 1.3% 82%  
380 2% 81%  
381 2% 79%  
382 2% 78%  
383 3% 76%  
384 0.4% 73%  
385 3% 72%  
386 3% 69%  
387 2% 66%  
388 4% 64%  
389 4% 61%  
390 3% 57%  
391 4% 54% Median
392 1.4% 50%  
393 5% 48%  
394 4% 44%  
395 2% 40%  
396 4% 38%  
397 1.5% 34%  
398 1.2% 33%  
399 0.9% 31%  
400 2% 31%  
401 2% 28%  
402 2% 27%  
403 4% 25%  
404 3% 21%  
405 4% 18%  
406 1.0% 15%  
407 0.9% 14%  
408 1.3% 13%  
409 0.8% 12%  
410 1.2% 11%  
411 0.4% 10%  
412 0.3% 9%  
413 0.4% 9%  
414 1.0% 8%  
415 0.4% 7%  
416 0.9% 7%  
417 1.4% 6%  
418 0.4% 5%  
419 0.5% 4%  
420 0.2% 4%  
421 0.2% 3%  
422 0.4% 3%  
423 0.4% 3%  
424 0.5% 3%  
425 0.3% 2%  
426 0.2% 2%  
427 0.1% 2%  
428 0.2% 1.5%  
429 0.1% 1.3%  
430 0.2% 1.2%  
431 0.1% 1.0%  
432 0.3% 0.8%  
433 0.1% 0.5%  
434 0% 0.4%  
435 0% 0.3%  
436 0% 0.3%  
437 0% 0.3%  
438 0% 0.2%  
439 0% 0.2%  
440 0% 0.2%  
441 0.1% 0.2%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.7%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0.2% 99.5%  
310 0.1% 99.3%  
311 0.2% 99.2%  
312 0.1% 99.0%  
313 0.1% 98.9%  
314 0.4% 98.8%  
315 0.1% 98%  
316 0.2% 98%  
317 0.6% 98% Last Result
318 0.4% 98%  
319 0.4% 97%  
320 0.6% 97%  
321 0.2% 96%  
322 0.2% 96%  
323 0.7% 96%  
324 0.4% 95%  
325 0.3% 95%  
326 0.3% 95% Majority
327 0.5% 94%  
328 0.3% 94%  
329 0.5% 94%  
330 2% 93%  
331 0.4% 91%  
332 1.3% 91%  
333 0.7% 90%  
334 0.5% 89%  
335 3% 89%  
336 0.6% 86%  
337 0.9% 85%  
338 2% 85%  
339 2% 83%  
340 0.8% 81%  
341 0.9% 81%  
342 1.2% 80%  
343 1.1% 78%  
344 1.1% 77%  
345 3% 76%  
346 0.3% 73%  
347 3% 73%  
348 2% 70%  
349 3% 68%  
350 3% 65%  
351 0.8% 62%  
352 4% 62%  
353 3% 57%  
354 2% 54%  
355 3% 52% Median
356 2% 50%  
357 5% 48%  
358 3% 44%  
359 3% 40%  
360 2% 37%  
361 2% 35%  
362 0.6% 34%  
363 5% 33%  
364 2% 28%  
365 3% 26%  
366 1.3% 23%  
367 2% 22%  
368 3% 20%  
369 0.9% 17%  
370 2% 16%  
371 0.7% 14%  
372 0.6% 13%  
373 2% 13%  
374 0.8% 11%  
375 0.9% 10%  
376 0.8% 9%  
377 0.9% 9%  
378 0.5% 8%  
379 0.3% 7%  
380 2% 7%  
381 0.3% 5%  
382 0.5% 5%  
383 0.3% 4%  
384 0.2% 4%  
385 0.5% 4%  
386 0.4% 3%  
387 0.4% 3%  
388 0.2% 2%  
389 0.2% 2%  
390 0.1% 2%  
391 0.2% 2%  
392 0.3% 2%  
393 0.2% 1.4%  
394 0% 1.2%  
395 0.1% 1.1%  
396 0.1% 1.0%  
397 0.2% 0.9%  
398 0% 0.7%  
399 0.1% 0.7%  
400 0.2% 0.6%  
401 0.1% 0.4%  
402 0% 0.3%  
403 0.1% 0.3%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.7%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0.2% 99.5%  
310 0.1% 99.3%  
311 0.2% 99.2%  
312 0.1% 99.0%  
313 0.1% 98.9%  
314 0.4% 98.8%  
315 0.1% 98%  
316 0.2% 98%  
317 0.6% 98% Last Result
318 0.4% 98%  
319 0.4% 97%  
320 0.6% 97%  
321 0.2% 96%  
322 0.2% 96%  
323 0.7% 96%  
324 0.4% 95%  
325 0.3% 95%  
326 0.3% 95% Majority
327 0.5% 94%  
328 0.3% 94%  
329 0.5% 94%  
330 2% 93%  
331 0.4% 91%  
332 1.3% 91%  
333 0.7% 90%  
334 0.5% 89%  
335 3% 89%  
336 0.6% 86%  
337 0.9% 85%  
338 2% 85%  
339 2% 83%  
340 0.8% 81%  
341 0.9% 81%  
342 1.2% 80%  
343 1.1% 78%  
344 1.1% 77%  
345 3% 76%  
346 0.3% 73%  
347 3% 73%  
348 2% 70%  
349 3% 68%  
350 3% 65%  
351 0.8% 62%  
352 4% 62%  
353 3% 57%  
354 2% 54%  
355 3% 52% Median
356 2% 50%  
357 5% 48%  
358 3% 44%  
359 3% 40%  
360 2% 37%  
361 2% 35%  
362 0.6% 34%  
363 5% 33%  
364 2% 28%  
365 3% 26%  
366 1.3% 23%  
367 2% 22%  
368 3% 20%  
369 0.9% 17%  
370 2% 16%  
371 0.7% 14%  
372 0.6% 13%  
373 2% 13%  
374 0.8% 11%  
375 0.9% 10%  
376 0.8% 9%  
377 0.9% 9%  
378 0.5% 8%  
379 0.3% 7%  
380 2% 7%  
381 0.3% 5%  
382 0.5% 5%  
383 0.3% 4%  
384 0.2% 4%  
385 0.5% 4%  
386 0.4% 3%  
387 0.4% 3%  
388 0.2% 2%  
389 0.2% 2%  
390 0.1% 2%  
391 0.2% 2%  
392 0.3% 2%  
393 0.2% 1.4%  
394 0% 1.2%  
395 0.1% 1.1%  
396 0.1% 1.0%  
397 0.2% 0.9%  
398 0% 0.7%  
399 0.1% 0.7%  
400 0.2% 0.6%  
401 0.1% 0.4%  
402 0% 0.3%  
403 0.1% 0.3%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0.1% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.8%  
226 0% 99.7%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0.2% 99.6%  
229 0.1% 99.4%  
230 0% 99.3%  
231 0.2% 99.3%  
232 0.1% 99.1%  
233 0.1% 99.0%  
234 0% 98.9%  
235 0.2% 98.8%  
236 0.3% 98.6%  
237 0.2% 98%  
238 0.1% 98%  
239 0.2% 98%  
240 0.2% 98%  
241 0.4% 98%  
242 0.4% 97%  
243 0.5% 97%  
244 0.2% 96%  
245 0.3% 96%  
246 0.5% 96%  
247 0.3% 95%  
248 2% 95%  
249 0.3% 93%  
250 0.5% 93%  
251 0.9% 92%  
252 0.8% 91%  
253 0.9% 91%  
254 0.8% 90%  
255 2% 89%  
256 0.6% 87%  
257 0.7% 87%  
258 2% 86%  
259 0.9% 84%  
260 3% 83%  
261 2% 80%  
262 1.3% 78%  
263 3% 77%  
264 2% 74%  
265 5% 72%  
266 0.6% 67%  
267 2% 66%  
268 2% 65%  
269 3% 63%  
270 3% 60% Median
271 5% 56%  
272 2% 52%  
273 3% 50%  
274 2% 48%  
275 3% 46%  
276 4% 43%  
277 0.8% 38%  
278 3% 38%  
279 3% 35%  
280 2% 32%  
281 3% 30%  
282 0.3% 27%  
283 3% 27%  
284 1.1% 24%  
285 1.1% 23%  
286 1.2% 22%  
287 0.9% 20%  
288 0.8% 19%  
289 2% 19%  
290 2% 17%  
291 0.9% 15%  
292 0.6% 15%  
293 3% 14%  
294 0.5% 11%  
295 0.7% 11%  
296 1.3% 10%  
297 0.4% 9%  
298 2% 9%  
299 0.5% 7%  
300 0.3% 6%  
301 0.5% 6%  
302 0.3% 6%  
303 0.3% 5%  
304 0.4% 5%  
305 0.7% 5%  
306 0.2% 4%  
307 0.2% 4%  
308 0.6% 4%  
309 0.4% 3% Last Result
310 0.4% 3%  
311 0.6% 2%  
312 0.2% 2%  
313 0.1% 2%  
314 0.4% 2%  
315 0.1% 1.2%  
316 0.1% 1.1%  
317 0.2% 1.0%  
318 0.1% 0.8%  
319 0.2% 0.7%  
320 0.1% 0.5%  
321 0.1% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.3%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
184 0% 100%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0.1% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.8%  
189 0% 99.8%  
190 0% 99.8%  
191 0% 99.8%  
192 0% 99.7%  
193 0% 99.7%  
194 0% 99.7%  
195 0.1% 99.6%  
196 0.3% 99.5%  
197 0.1% 99.2%  
198 0.2% 99.0%  
199 0.1% 98.8%  
200 0.2% 98.7%  
201 0.1% 98.5%  
202 0.2% 98%  
203 0.3% 98%  
204 0.5% 98%  
205 0.4% 97%  
206 0.4% 97%  
207 0.2% 97%  
208 0.2% 97%  
209 0.5% 96%  
210 0.4% 96%  
211 1.4% 95%  
212 0.9% 94%  
213 0.4% 93%  
214 1.0% 93%  
215 0.4% 92%  
216 0.3% 91%  
217 0.4% 91%  
218 1.2% 90%  
219 0.8% 89%  
220 1.3% 88%  
221 0.9% 87%  
222 1.0% 86%  
223 4% 85%  
224 3% 82%  
225 4% 79%  
226 2% 75%  
227 2% 73%  
228 2% 72%  
229 0.9% 69%  
230 1.2% 69%  
231 1.5% 67%  
232 4% 66%  
233 2% 62%  
234 4% 60% Median
235 5% 56%  
236 1.4% 52%  
237 4% 50%  
238 3% 46%  
239 4% 43%  
240 4% 39%  
241 2% 36%  
242 3% 34%  
243 3% 31%  
244 0.4% 28%  
245 3% 27%  
246 2% 24%  
247 2% 22%  
248 2% 21%  
249 1.3% 19%  
250 0.7% 18%  
251 1.4% 17%  
252 1.3% 15%  
253 0.6% 14%  
254 1.0% 14%  
255 1.1% 13%  
256 1.0% 12%  
257 2% 10%  
258 1.1% 8%  
259 0.3% 7%  
260 0.4% 7%  
261 0.3% 6%  
262 0.5% 6%  
263 0.4% 6%  
264 0.2% 5%  
265 0.3% 5%  
266 0.3% 5%  
267 0.8% 4%  
268 0.6% 4%  
269 0.6% 3%  
270 0.2% 2%  
271 0.1% 2%  
272 0.1% 2%  
273 0.4% 2%  
274 0.6% 2%  
275 0.1% 1.0%  
276 0.2% 0.8%  
277 0.1% 0.6%  
278 0.2% 0.6%  
279 0.1% 0.4%  
280 0% 0.3%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.2%  
284 0.1% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.8%  
183 0.1% 99.8%  
184 0% 99.7%  
185 0.1% 99.7%  
186 0.2% 99.6%  
187 0.3% 99.4%  
188 0.3% 99.2%  
189 0.1% 98.9%  
190 0.2% 98.8%  
191 0.1% 98.5%  
192 0.4% 98%  
193 0.2% 98%  
194 0.2% 98%  
195 0.2% 98%  
196 0.6% 98%  
197 0.2% 97%  
198 0.8% 97%  
199 0.1% 96%  
200 0.9% 96%  
201 0.4% 95%  
202 0.4% 94%  
203 0.2% 94%  
204 0.7% 94%  
205 0.2% 93%  
206 0.4% 93%  
207 0.7% 93%  
208 0.7% 92%  
209 2% 91%  
210 2% 90%  
211 1.4% 88%  
212 1.2% 87%  
213 1.4% 85%  
214 2% 84%  
215 4% 82%  
216 1.5% 78%  
217 1.3% 77%  
218 5% 76%  
219 1.2% 71%  
220 5% 70%  
221 5% 65%  
222 4% 60%  
223 4% 56% Median
224 0.8% 52%  
225 2% 51%  
226 1.4% 49%  
227 3% 48%  
228 1.3% 44%  
229 0.8% 43%  
230 4% 42%  
231 5% 38%  
232 2% 34%  
233 1.1% 32%  
234 3% 31%  
235 2% 28%  
236 1.3% 26%  
237 2% 25%  
238 2% 23%  
239 1.3% 21%  
240 0.7% 19%  
241 0.9% 19%  
242 2% 18%  
243 1.2% 16%  
244 1.0% 15%  
245 1.3% 14%  
246 0.4% 12%  
247 2% 12%  
248 2% 10%  
249 0.5% 9%  
250 0.4% 8%  
251 1.2% 8%  
252 0.3% 6%  
253 0.6% 6%  
254 0.6% 5%  
255 0.4% 5%  
256 0.2% 4%  
257 0.2% 4%  
258 0.7% 4%  
259 0.5% 3%  
260 0.8% 3%  
261 0.1% 2%  
262 0.2% 2%  
263 0.1% 2%  
264 0.4% 2%  
265 0.1% 1.2%  
266 0.1% 1.1%  
267 0.1% 1.0%  
268 0.2% 0.9%  
269 0.2% 0.6%  
270 0% 0.4%  
271 0.1% 0.4%  
272 0% 0.3%  
273 0.1% 0.3%  
274 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.8%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.7%  
152 0.1% 99.6%  
153 0.1% 99.5%  
154 0.6% 99.4%  
155 0.4% 98.8%  
156 0.2% 98%  
157 0.3% 98%  
158 0% 98%  
159 0.5% 98%  
160 0.2% 97%  
161 1.0% 97%  
162 0.2% 96%  
163 0.4% 96%  
164 0.7% 96%  
165 0.1% 95%  
166 0.4% 95%  
167 0.4% 94%  
168 0.8% 94%  
169 0.4% 93%  
170 0.1% 93%  
171 0.9% 93%  
172 0.5% 92%  
173 2% 91%  
174 1.1% 90%  
175 0.7% 88%  
176 0.4% 88%  
177 2% 87%  
178 4% 85%  
179 3% 81%  
180 2% 78%  
181 2% 76%  
182 3% 74%  
183 2% 71%  
184 2% 69%  
185 7% 68%  
186 6% 60%  
187 6% 55% Median
188 0.2% 49%  
189 1.5% 49%  
190 3% 47%  
191 2% 44%  
192 2% 41%  
193 0.5% 39%  
194 5% 39%  
195 4% 34%  
196 1.2% 30%  
197 0.3% 29%  
198 4% 28%  
199 0.4% 25%  
200 3% 24%  
201 0.9% 21%  
202 0.3% 20%  
203 3% 20%  
204 2% 17%  
205 2% 16%  
206 3% 13%  
207 1.1% 11%  
208 2% 9%  
209 0.3% 8%  
210 0% 7%  
211 0.2% 7%  
212 0.6% 7%  
213 0.8% 6%  
214 0.1% 6%  
215 0.2% 6%  
216 0.6% 5%  
217 1.2% 5%  
218 0.6% 4%  
219 0.3% 3%  
220 0% 3%  
221 0.1% 3%  
222 0.2% 3%  
223 1.2% 2%  
224 0.2% 1.1%  
225 0.1% 0.8%  
226 0.1% 0.7%  
227 0.2% 0.7%  
228 0.2% 0.5%  
229 0% 0.3%  
230 0.1% 0.3%  
231 0% 0.2%  
232 0% 0.2%  
233 0% 0.2%  
234 0.1% 0.2%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations