Opinion Poll by Opinium for The Observer, 13–15 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 43.8% 42.4–45.3% 42.0–45.7% 41.7–46.0% 41.0–46.7%
Labour Party 41.0% 27.9% 26.6–29.2% 26.2–29.6% 25.9–29.9% 25.3–30.5%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 13.9% 13.0–15.0% 12.7–15.3% 12.5–15.5% 12.0–16.0%
Brexit Party 0.0% 5.9% 5.3–6.7% 5.1–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.4%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Green Party 1.7% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 374 363–387 358–394 357–400 350–407
Labour Party 262 171 156–181 152–183 146–185 142–190
Liberal Democrats 12 32 30–36 30–37 30–37 29–39
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 35 47 41–50 41–51 41–53 37–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 6 4–9 4–10 4–10 3–11
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0% 99.6%  
349 0% 99.6%  
350 0.1% 99.6%  
351 0% 99.5%  
352 0% 99.4%  
353 0% 99.4%  
354 0% 99.4%  
355 0.7% 99.4%  
356 0.9% 98.7%  
357 0.4% 98%  
358 3% 97%  
359 1.3% 95%  
360 0.3% 93%  
361 1.5% 93%  
362 0.8% 92%  
363 1.2% 91%  
364 4% 90%  
365 2% 85%  
366 2% 83%  
367 0.9% 81%  
368 9% 80%  
369 2% 71%  
370 0.1% 69%  
371 0.6% 69%  
372 3% 68%  
373 13% 66%  
374 12% 53% Median
375 0.2% 41%  
376 0.9% 41%  
377 6% 40%  
378 5% 33%  
379 0.6% 28%  
380 0.1% 28%  
381 0.5% 28%  
382 7% 27%  
383 9% 21%  
384 0.3% 12%  
385 0.4% 12%  
386 1.2% 11%  
387 0.5% 10%  
388 0.8% 10%  
389 3% 9%  
390 0.1% 6%  
391 0.4% 6%  
392 0.2% 6%  
393 0.1% 6%  
394 1.0% 6%  
395 0.1% 5%  
396 0.1% 4%  
397 0.3% 4%  
398 0.3% 4%  
399 0.9% 4%  
400 0.5% 3%  
401 0% 2%  
402 0% 2%  
403 0.1% 2%  
404 1.3% 2%  
405 0% 0.9%  
406 0.4% 0.9%  
407 0.1% 0.6%  
408 0.4% 0.4%  
409 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0% 100%  
140 0.4% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.5%  
142 0% 99.5%  
143 0.1% 99.5%  
144 0% 99.4%  
145 0% 99.4%  
146 2% 99.4%  
147 0.1% 97%  
148 0.2% 97%  
149 1.4% 97%  
150 0.3% 96%  
151 0.2% 95%  
152 2% 95%  
153 0.6% 93%  
154 0.7% 93%  
155 1.1% 92%  
156 1.0% 91%  
157 0.5% 90%  
158 7% 89%  
159 0.3% 82%  
160 0.1% 82%  
161 0.6% 82%  
162 0.4% 81%  
163 0.1% 81%  
164 0.1% 81%  
165 0.9% 80%  
166 0.1% 80%  
167 0.2% 80%  
168 17% 79%  
169 2% 62%  
170 8% 60%  
171 12% 52% Median
172 0.4% 40%  
173 0.3% 39%  
174 2% 39%  
175 2% 37%  
176 0.1% 35%  
177 0.8% 35%  
178 16% 34%  
179 0.1% 18%  
180 4% 18%  
181 7% 13%  
182 0.3% 7%  
183 2% 6%  
184 1.3% 4%  
185 1.0% 3%  
186 0.4% 2%  
187 0.1% 2%  
188 0% 2%  
189 0% 2%  
190 1.1% 2%  
191 0.1% 0.5%  
192 0% 0.4%  
193 0% 0.4%  
194 0% 0.3%  
195 0% 0.3%  
196 0% 0.3%  
197 0% 0.3%  
198 0% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0% 0.2%  
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 2% 99.9%  
30 15% 98%  
31 20% 83%  
32 17% 63% Median
33 12% 46%  
34 1.4% 33%  
35 5% 32%  
36 21% 27%  
37 3% 6%  
38 0.8% 2%  
39 1.2% 2%  
40 0.1% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.4%  
42 0% 0.3%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
36 0.2% 99.8%  
37 0.1% 99.6%  
38 0.2% 99.5%  
39 0.4% 99.3%  
40 0.1% 98.9%  
41 21% 98.8%  
42 0.8% 77%  
43 0.2% 77%  
44 0% 77%  
45 9% 77%  
46 0% 68%  
47 22% 68% Median
48 14% 46%  
49 0% 31%  
50 21% 31%  
51 5% 10%  
52 0.2% 5%  
53 3% 4%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.2% 100%  
4 34% 98.8% Last Result
5 10% 65%  
6 13% 55% Median
7 10% 42%  
8 20% 31%  
9 5% 11%  
10 5% 6%  
11 1.1% 1.1%  
12 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 427 100% 418–443 414–447 413–452 405–456
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 421 100% 411–434 410–439 406–444 401–447
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 407 100% 394–421 392–428 390–432 386–440
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 407 100% 394–421 392–428 390–432 386–440
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 381 100% 369–395 363–400 362–409 355–416
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 374 100% 363–387 358–394 357–400 350–407
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 374 100% 363–387 358–394 357–400 350–407
Conservative Party 317 374 100% 363–387 358–394 357–400 350–407
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 314 258 0% 245–269 238–274 232–275 225–282
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 257 0% 244–268 237–273 231–274 224–281
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 250 0% 236–262 231–268 222–269 215–276
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 224 0% 210–237 203–239 199–241 191–245
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 218 0% 203–231 197–234 190–235 186–240
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 210 0% 197–220 192–221 187–225 184–230
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 204 0% 188–213 184–217 179–218 175–226
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 204 0% 188–213 184–217 179–218 175–226
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 178 0% 164–186 158–189 154–190 150–198
Labour Party – Change UK 262 171 0% 156–181 152–183 146–185 142–190
Labour Party 262 171 0% 156–181 152–183 146–185 142–190

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100% Last Result
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0.1% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.8%  
400 0.1% 99.8%  
401 0% 99.7%  
402 0% 99.7%  
403 0% 99.7%  
404 0.1% 99.7%  
405 0.1% 99.6%  
406 0% 99.5%  
407 0% 99.4%  
408 0.6% 99.4%  
409 0.2% 98.8%  
410 0.6% 98.7%  
411 0.2% 98%  
412 0.2% 98%  
413 0.7% 98%  
414 3% 97%  
415 3% 93%  
416 0.5% 91%  
417 0.3% 90%  
418 2% 90%  
419 5% 88%  
420 10% 83%  
421 2% 73%  
422 0.3% 71%  
423 7% 71%  
424 0.7% 64%  
425 1.1% 63%  
426 2% 62%  
427 14% 60% Median
428 11% 45%  
429 1.4% 35%  
430 9% 33%  
431 0.3% 25%  
432 0.1% 24%  
433 4% 24%  
434 0% 20%  
435 0.6% 20%  
436 0.1% 19%  
437 7% 19%  
438 0.3% 12%  
439 0.3% 11%  
440 0.5% 11%  
441 0.2% 11%  
442 0.1% 11%  
443 3% 10%  
444 0.8% 7%  
445 0.1% 6%  
446 0.3% 6%  
447 2% 6%  
448 0.3% 4%  
449 0.7% 4%  
450 0.3% 3%  
451 0.4% 3%  
452 0.4% 3%  
453 1.4% 2%  
454 0.1% 0.7%  
455 0.1% 0.6%  
456 0% 0.5%  
457 0.4% 0.5%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100% Last Result
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0% 99.9%  
393 0% 99.9%  
394 0.1% 99.9%  
395 0.1% 99.8%  
396 0% 99.7%  
397 0% 99.7%  
398 0% 99.6%  
399 0% 99.6%  
400 0.1% 99.6%  
401 0.1% 99.5%  
402 0.6% 99.4%  
403 0% 98.8%  
404 0.6% 98.8%  
405 0.3% 98%  
406 0.5% 98%  
407 0.3% 97%  
408 0.5% 97%  
409 0.7% 97%  
410 3% 96%  
411 4% 93%  
412 3% 89%  
413 1.2% 86%  
414 3% 84%  
415 1.1% 81%  
416 10% 80%  
417 2% 70%  
418 7% 68%  
419 2% 61%  
420 0.1% 59%  
421 11% 59% Median
422 0.5% 48%  
423 19% 48%  
424 8% 29%  
425 0.1% 20%  
426 0.1% 20%  
427 0% 20%  
428 0.3% 20%  
429 8% 20%  
430 0.1% 12%  
431 0.1% 12%  
432 0.6% 12%  
433 1.2% 11%  
434 1.1% 10%  
435 0.8% 9%  
436 0.1% 8%  
437 0.4% 8%  
438 0.1% 8%  
439 3% 8%  
440 0.8% 5%  
441 0.7% 4%  
442 0.2% 3%  
443 0.1% 3%  
444 0.5% 3%  
445 2% 2%  
446 0% 0.9%  
447 0.4% 0.9%  
448 0% 0.5%  
449 0.4% 0.4%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.8%  
380 0% 99.7%  
381 0% 99.7%  
382 0% 99.6%  
383 0.1% 99.6%  
384 0% 99.6%  
385 0% 99.5%  
386 0.5% 99.5%  
387 0.3% 99.0%  
388 0% 98.8%  
389 0.8% 98.8%  
390 0.5% 98%  
391 2% 97%  
392 0.7% 96%  
393 3% 95%  
394 3% 92%  
395 3% 90%  
396 0.6% 87%  
397 2% 86%  
398 2% 85%  
399 0.3% 83%  
400 2% 83%  
401 9% 81%  
402 3% 72%  
403 0.9% 69%  
404 0.7% 69%  
405 1.1% 68%  
406 11% 67% Median
407 9% 56%  
408 5% 47%  
409 13% 42%  
410 0.4% 29%  
411 0.1% 28%  
412 0.2% 28%  
413 0.2% 28%  
414 8% 28%  
415 0.6% 20%  
416 0.3% 19%  
417 0.6% 19%  
418 7% 18%  
419 0.9% 11%  
420 0.1% 10%  
421 3% 10%  
422 0.5% 8%  
423 0.2% 7%  
424 0.5% 7%  
425 1.1% 7%  
426 0% 6%  
427 0.5% 6%  
428 0.7% 5%  
429 0.6% 4%  
430 1.0% 4%  
431 0.2% 3%  
432 0.1% 3%  
433 0% 2%  
434 0% 2%  
435 0.1% 2%  
436 1.5% 2%  
437 0% 0.9%  
438 0% 0.8%  
439 0% 0.8%  
440 0.4% 0.8%  
441 0% 0.4%  
442 0.4% 0.4%  
443 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.8%  
380 0% 99.7%  
381 0% 99.7%  
382 0% 99.6%  
383 0.1% 99.6%  
384 0% 99.6%  
385 0% 99.5%  
386 0.5% 99.5%  
387 0.3% 99.0%  
388 0% 98.8%  
389 0.8% 98.8%  
390 0.5% 98%  
391 2% 97%  
392 0.7% 96%  
393 3% 95%  
394 3% 92%  
395 3% 90%  
396 0.6% 87%  
397 2% 86%  
398 2% 85%  
399 0.3% 83%  
400 2% 83%  
401 9% 81%  
402 3% 72%  
403 0.9% 69%  
404 0.7% 69%  
405 1.1% 68%  
406 11% 67% Median
407 9% 56%  
408 5% 47%  
409 13% 42%  
410 0.4% 29%  
411 0.1% 28%  
412 0.2% 28%  
413 0.2% 28%  
414 8% 28%  
415 0.6% 20%  
416 0.3% 19%  
417 0.6% 19%  
418 7% 18%  
419 0.9% 11%  
420 0.1% 10%  
421 3% 10%  
422 0.5% 8%  
423 0.2% 7%  
424 0.5% 7%  
425 1.1% 7%  
426 0% 6%  
427 0.5% 6%  
428 0.7% 5%  
429 0.6% 4%  
430 1.0% 4%  
431 0.2% 3%  
432 0.1% 3%  
433 0% 2%  
434 0% 2%  
435 0.1% 2%  
436 1.5% 2%  
437 0% 0.9%  
438 0% 0.8%  
439 0% 0.8%  
440 0.4% 0.8%  
441 0% 0.4%  
442 0.4% 0.4%  
443 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
321 0% 100% Last Result
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.8%  
353 0% 99.7%  
354 0.1% 99.6%  
355 0% 99.5%  
356 0% 99.5%  
357 0% 99.5%  
358 0.1% 99.5%  
359 0% 99.4%  
360 0.8% 99.4%  
361 0.4% 98.6%  
362 2% 98%  
363 1.4% 96%  
364 0.6% 94%  
365 0.2% 94%  
366 0.6% 94%  
367 0.3% 93%  
368 0.3% 93%  
369 5% 92%  
370 3% 88%  
371 1.2% 84%  
372 9% 83%  
373 1.1% 74%  
374 1.2% 73%  
375 3% 72%  
376 0.4% 69%  
377 13% 69%  
378 1.1% 56%  
379 1.0% 55%  
380 3% 54% Median
381 10% 51%  
382 7% 41%  
383 0.7% 34%  
384 0.8% 33%  
385 0.2% 33%  
386 0.1% 32%  
387 0.5% 32%  
388 5% 32%  
389 8% 27%  
390 7% 19%  
391 0.1% 12%  
392 0.6% 12%  
393 0.8% 11%  
394 0.1% 11%  
395 1.4% 11%  
396 0% 9%  
397 2% 9%  
398 2% 7%  
399 0.4% 5%  
400 0.1% 5%  
401 0.2% 5%  
402 0.3% 5%  
403 0.8% 5%  
404 0% 4%  
405 0% 4%  
406 0.1% 4%  
407 0.4% 4%  
408 0.5% 3%  
409 0.2% 3%  
410 0.4% 2%  
411 0% 2%  
412 1.3% 2%  
413 0% 0.6%  
414 0% 0.6%  
415 0% 0.6%  
416 0.5% 0.5%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0% 99.6%  
349 0% 99.6%  
350 0.1% 99.6%  
351 0% 99.5%  
352 0% 99.4%  
353 0% 99.4%  
354 0% 99.4%  
355 0.7% 99.4%  
356 0.9% 98.7%  
357 0.4% 98%  
358 3% 97%  
359 1.3% 95%  
360 0.3% 93%  
361 1.5% 93%  
362 0.8% 92%  
363 1.2% 91%  
364 4% 90%  
365 2% 85%  
366 2% 83%  
367 0.9% 81%  
368 9% 80%  
369 2% 71%  
370 0.1% 69%  
371 0.6% 69%  
372 3% 68%  
373 13% 66%  
374 12% 53% Median
375 0.2% 41%  
376 0.9% 41%  
377 6% 40%  
378 5% 33%  
379 0.6% 28%  
380 0.1% 28%  
381 0.5% 28%  
382 7% 27%  
383 9% 21%  
384 0.3% 12%  
385 0.4% 12%  
386 1.2% 11%  
387 0.5% 10%  
388 0.8% 10%  
389 3% 9%  
390 0.1% 6%  
391 0.4% 6%  
392 0.2% 6%  
393 0.1% 6%  
394 1.0% 6%  
395 0.1% 5%  
396 0.1% 4%  
397 0.3% 4%  
398 0.3% 4%  
399 0.9% 4%  
400 0.5% 3%  
401 0% 2%  
402 0% 2%  
403 0.1% 2%  
404 1.3% 2%  
405 0% 0.9%  
406 0.4% 0.9%  
407 0.1% 0.6%  
408 0.4% 0.4%  
409 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0% 99.6%  
349 0% 99.6%  
350 0.1% 99.6%  
351 0% 99.5%  
352 0% 99.4%  
353 0% 99.4%  
354 0% 99.4%  
355 0.7% 99.4%  
356 0.9% 98.7%  
357 0.4% 98%  
358 3% 97%  
359 1.3% 95%  
360 0.3% 93%  
361 1.5% 93%  
362 0.8% 92%  
363 1.2% 91%  
364 4% 90%  
365 2% 85%  
366 2% 83%  
367 0.9% 81%  
368 9% 80%  
369 2% 71%  
370 0.1% 69%  
371 0.6% 69%  
372 3% 68%  
373 13% 66%  
374 12% 53% Median
375 0.2% 41%  
376 0.9% 41%  
377 6% 40%  
378 5% 33%  
379 0.6% 28%  
380 0.1% 28%  
381 0.5% 28%  
382 7% 27%  
383 9% 21%  
384 0.3% 12%  
385 0.4% 12%  
386 1.2% 11%  
387 0.5% 10%  
388 0.8% 10%  
389 3% 9%  
390 0.1% 6%  
391 0.4% 6%  
392 0.2% 6%  
393 0.1% 6%  
394 1.0% 6%  
395 0.1% 5%  
396 0.1% 4%  
397 0.3% 4%  
398 0.3% 4%  
399 0.9% 4%  
400 0.5% 3%  
401 0% 2%  
402 0% 2%  
403 0.1% 2%  
404 1.3% 2%  
405 0% 0.9%  
406 0.4% 0.9%  
407 0.1% 0.6%  
408 0.4% 0.4%  
409 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0% 99.6%  
349 0% 99.6%  
350 0.1% 99.6%  
351 0% 99.5%  
352 0% 99.4%  
353 0% 99.4%  
354 0% 99.4%  
355 0.7% 99.4%  
356 0.9% 98.7%  
357 0.4% 98%  
358 3% 97%  
359 1.3% 95%  
360 0.3% 93%  
361 1.5% 93%  
362 0.8% 92%  
363 1.2% 91%  
364 4% 90%  
365 2% 85%  
366 2% 83%  
367 0.9% 81%  
368 9% 80%  
369 2% 71%  
370 0.1% 69%  
371 0.6% 69%  
372 3% 68%  
373 13% 66%  
374 12% 53% Median
375 0.2% 41%  
376 0.9% 41%  
377 6% 40%  
378 5% 33%  
379 0.6% 28%  
380 0.1% 28%  
381 0.5% 28%  
382 7% 27%  
383 9% 21%  
384 0.3% 12%  
385 0.4% 12%  
386 1.2% 11%  
387 0.5% 10%  
388 0.8% 10%  
389 3% 9%  
390 0.1% 6%  
391 0.4% 6%  
392 0.2% 6%  
393 0.1% 6%  
394 1.0% 6%  
395 0.1% 5%  
396 0.1% 4%  
397 0.3% 4%  
398 0.3% 4%  
399 0.9% 4%  
400 0.5% 3%  
401 0% 2%  
402 0% 2%  
403 0.1% 2%  
404 1.3% 2%  
405 0% 0.9%  
406 0.4% 0.9%  
407 0.1% 0.6%  
408 0.4% 0.4%  
409 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
224 0.4% 100%  
225 0.1% 99.6%  
226 0.4% 99.4%  
227 0% 99.1%  
228 1.3% 99.1%  
229 0.1% 98%  
230 0% 98%  
231 0% 98%  
232 0.5% 98%  
233 0.9% 97%  
234 0.3% 96%  
235 0.3% 96%  
236 0.1% 96%  
237 0.1% 96%  
238 1.0% 95%  
239 0.1% 94%  
240 0.2% 94%  
241 0.4% 94%  
242 0.1% 94%  
243 3% 94%  
244 0.8% 91%  
245 0.5% 90%  
246 1.2% 90%  
247 0.4% 89%  
248 0.3% 88%  
249 9% 88%  
250 7% 79%  
251 0.5% 73%  
252 0.1% 72%  
253 0.6% 72%  
254 5% 72%  
255 6% 67%  
256 0.9% 60%  
257 0.2% 59% Median
258 12% 59%  
259 13% 47%  
260 3% 34%  
261 0.6% 32%  
262 0.1% 31%  
263 2% 31%  
264 9% 29%  
265 0.9% 20%  
266 2% 19%  
267 2% 17%  
268 4% 15%  
269 1.2% 10%  
270 0.8% 9%  
271 1.5% 8%  
272 0.3% 7%  
273 1.3% 7%  
274 3% 5%  
275 0.4% 3%  
276 0.9% 2%  
277 0.7% 1.3%  
278 0% 0.6%  
279 0% 0.6%  
280 0% 0.6%  
281 0% 0.6%  
282 0.1% 0.5%  
283 0% 0.4%  
284 0% 0.4%  
285 0.1% 0.4%  
286 0.1% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
223 0.4% 100%  
224 0.1% 99.6%  
225 0.4% 99.4%  
226 0% 99.1%  
227 1.3% 99.1%  
228 0.1% 98%  
229 0% 98%  
230 0% 98%  
231 0.5% 98%  
232 0.9% 97%  
233 0.3% 96%  
234 0.3% 96%  
235 0.1% 96%  
236 0.1% 96%  
237 1.0% 95%  
238 0.1% 94%  
239 0.2% 94%  
240 0.4% 94%  
241 0.1% 94%  
242 3% 94%  
243 0.8% 91%  
244 0.5% 90%  
245 1.2% 90%  
246 0.4% 89%  
247 0.3% 88%  
248 9% 88%  
249 7% 79%  
250 0.5% 73%  
251 0.1% 72%  
252 0.6% 72%  
253 5% 72%  
254 6% 67%  
255 0.9% 60%  
256 0.2% 59% Median
257 12% 59%  
258 13% 47%  
259 3% 34%  
260 0.6% 32%  
261 0.1% 31%  
262 2% 31%  
263 9% 29%  
264 0.9% 20%  
265 2% 19%  
266 2% 17%  
267 4% 15%  
268 1.2% 10%  
269 0.8% 9%  
270 1.5% 8%  
271 0.3% 7%  
272 1.3% 7%  
273 3% 5%  
274 0.4% 3%  
275 0.9% 2%  
276 0.7% 1.3%  
277 0% 0.6%  
278 0% 0.6%  
279 0% 0.6%  
280 0% 0.6%  
281 0.1% 0.5%  
282 0% 0.4%  
283 0% 0.4%  
284 0.1% 0.4%  
285 0.1% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
214 0% 100%  
215 0.5% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.5%  
217 0% 99.4%  
218 0% 99.4%  
219 1.3% 99.4%  
220 0% 98%  
221 0.4% 98%  
222 0.2% 98%  
223 0.5% 97%  
224 0.4% 97%  
225 0.1% 96%  
226 0% 96%  
227 0% 96%  
228 0.8% 96%  
229 0.3% 95%  
230 0.2% 95%  
231 0.1% 95%  
232 0.4% 95%  
233 2% 95%  
234 2% 93%  
235 0% 91%  
236 1.4% 91%  
237 0.1% 89%  
238 0.8% 89%  
239 0.6% 89%  
240 0.1% 88%  
241 7% 88%  
242 8% 81%  
243 5% 73%  
244 0.5% 68%  
245 0.1% 68%  
246 0.2% 68%  
247 0.8% 67%  
248 0.7% 67%  
249 7% 66%  
250 10% 59% Median
251 3% 49%  
252 1.0% 46%  
253 1.1% 45%  
254 13% 44%  
255 0.4% 31%  
256 3% 31%  
257 1.2% 28%  
258 1.1% 27%  
259 9% 26%  
260 1.2% 17%  
261 3% 16%  
262 5% 12%  
263 0.3% 8%  
264 0.3% 7%  
265 0.6% 7%  
266 0.2% 6%  
267 0.6% 6%  
268 1.4% 6%  
269 2% 4%  
270 0.4% 2%  
271 0.8% 1.4%  
272 0% 0.6%  
273 0.1% 0.6%  
274 0% 0.5%  
275 0% 0.5%  
276 0% 0.5%  
277 0.1% 0.5%  
278 0% 0.4%  
279 0.1% 0.3%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0.1% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0.4% 100%  
190 0% 99.6%  
191 0.4% 99.6%  
192 0% 99.2%  
193 0% 99.2%  
194 0% 99.2%  
195 1.5% 99.1%  
196 0.1% 98%  
197 0% 98%  
198 0% 98%  
199 0.1% 98%  
200 0.2% 97%  
201 1.0% 97%  
202 0.6% 96%  
203 0.7% 96%  
204 0.5% 95%  
205 0% 94%  
206 1.1% 94%  
207 0.5% 93%  
208 0.2% 93%  
209 0.5% 93%  
210 3% 92%  
211 0.1% 90%  
212 0.9% 90%  
213 7% 89%  
214 0.6% 82%  
215 0.3% 81%  
216 0.6% 81%  
217 8% 80%  
218 0.2% 72%  
219 0.2% 72%  
220 0.1% 72%  
221 0.4% 72%  
222 13% 71%  
223 5% 58%  
224 9% 53% Median
225 11% 44%  
226 1.1% 33%  
227 0.7% 32%  
228 0.9% 31%  
229 3% 31%  
230 9% 28%  
231 2% 19%  
232 0.3% 17%  
233 2% 17%  
234 2% 15%  
235 0.6% 14%  
236 3% 13%  
237 3% 10%  
238 3% 8%  
239 0.7% 5%  
240 2% 4%  
241 0.5% 3%  
242 0.8% 2%  
243 0% 1.2%  
244 0.3% 1.2%  
245 0.5% 1.0%  
246 0% 0.5%  
247 0% 0.5%  
248 0.1% 0.4%  
249 0% 0.4%  
250 0% 0.4%  
251 0% 0.3%  
252 0.1% 0.3%  
253 0.1% 0.2%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0.4% 100%  
182 0% 99.6%  
183 0% 99.6%  
184 0% 99.6%  
185 0% 99.5%  
186 0.1% 99.5%  
187 2% 99.4%  
188 0% 98%  
189 0.1% 98%  
190 0.3% 98%  
191 0% 97%  
192 0.3% 97%  
193 0.1% 97%  
194 0.6% 97%  
195 0.1% 96%  
196 0.3% 96%  
197 2% 96%  
198 0.1% 94%  
199 1.0% 94%  
200 0.3% 93%  
201 0% 93%  
202 2% 93%  
203 0.6% 90%  
204 0.1% 90%  
205 7% 90%  
206 0.9% 82%  
207 0.3% 81%  
208 0.4% 81%  
209 0.3% 81%  
210 0.2% 80%  
211 8% 80%  
212 0.4% 72%  
213 4% 72%  
214 0.4% 67%  
215 0.1% 67%  
216 3% 67%  
217 0.4% 64%  
218 23% 64% Median
219 8% 41%  
220 0.5% 33%  
221 0.8% 33%  
222 1.2% 32%  
223 0.6% 31%  
224 0.3% 30%  
225 5% 30%  
226 10% 24%  
227 1.3% 15%  
228 0.2% 14%  
229 1.4% 13%  
230 0.2% 12%  
231 5% 12%  
232 0.3% 6%  
233 0.1% 6%  
234 3% 6%  
235 1.3% 4%  
236 0.2% 2%  
237 0.7% 2%  
238 0.8% 1.4%  
239 0% 0.6%  
240 0.1% 0.6%  
241 0.1% 0.5%  
242 0% 0.4%  
243 0% 0.4%  
244 0% 0.4%  
245 0% 0.3%  
246 0% 0.3%  
247 0.1% 0.3%  
248 0% 0.2%  
249 0.1% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0% 100%  
182 0.4% 99.9%  
183 0% 99.6%  
184 0.4% 99.5%  
185 0% 99.1%  
186 2% 99.1%  
187 0.5% 98%  
188 0.1% 97%  
189 0.2% 97%  
190 0.7% 97%  
191 0.8% 96%  
192 3% 95%  
193 0.1% 92%  
194 0.4% 92%  
195 0.1% 92%  
196 0.8% 92%  
197 1.1% 91%  
198 1.2% 90%  
199 0.6% 89%  
200 0.1% 88%  
201 0.1% 88%  
202 8% 88%  
203 0.3% 80%  
204 0% 80%  
205 0.1% 80%  
206 0.1% 80%  
207 8% 80%  
208 19% 71%  
209 0.5% 52% Median
210 11% 52%  
211 0.1% 41%  
212 2% 41%  
213 7% 39%  
214 2% 32%  
215 10% 30%  
216 1.1% 20%  
217 3% 19%  
218 1.2% 16%  
219 3% 14%  
220 4% 11%  
221 3% 7%  
222 0.7% 4%  
223 0.5% 3%  
224 0.3% 3%  
225 0.5% 3%  
226 0.3% 2%  
227 0.6% 2%  
228 0% 1.2%  
229 0.6% 1.2%  
230 0.1% 0.6%  
231 0.1% 0.5%  
232 0% 0.4%  
233 0% 0.4%  
234 0% 0.4%  
235 0% 0.3%  
236 0.1% 0.3%  
237 0.1% 0.2%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0.4% 99.9%  
175 0% 99.5%  
176 0.1% 99.5%  
177 0.1% 99.4%  
178 1.4% 99.3%  
179 0.4% 98%  
180 0.4% 97%  
181 0.3% 97%  
182 0.7% 97%  
183 0.3% 96%  
184 2% 96%  
185 0.3% 94%  
186 0.1% 94%  
187 0.8% 94%  
188 3% 93%  
189 0.1% 90%  
190 0.2% 89%  
191 0.5% 89%  
192 0.3% 89%  
193 0.3% 89%  
194 7% 88%  
195 0.1% 81%  
196 0.6% 81%  
197 0% 80%  
198 4% 80%  
199 0.1% 76%  
200 0.3% 76%  
201 9% 75%  
202 1.4% 67%  
203 11% 65% Median
204 14% 55%  
205 2% 40%  
206 1.1% 38%  
207 0.7% 37%  
208 7% 36%  
209 0.3% 29%  
210 2% 29%  
211 10% 27%  
212 5% 17%  
213 2% 12%  
214 0.3% 10%  
215 0.5% 10%  
216 3% 9%  
217 3% 7%  
218 0.7% 3%  
219 0.2% 2%  
220 0.2% 2%  
221 0.6% 2%  
222 0.2% 1.3%  
223 0.6% 1.2%  
224 0% 0.6%  
225 0% 0.6%  
226 0.1% 0.5%  
227 0.1% 0.4%  
228 0% 0.3%  
229 0% 0.3%  
230 0% 0.3%  
231 0.1% 0.3%  
232 0% 0.2%  
233 0.1% 0.2%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0.4% 99.9%  
175 0% 99.5%  
176 0.1% 99.5%  
177 0.1% 99.4%  
178 1.4% 99.3%  
179 0.4% 98%  
180 0.4% 97%  
181 0.3% 97%  
182 0.7% 97%  
183 0.3% 96%  
184 2% 96%  
185 0.3% 94%  
186 0.1% 94%  
187 0.8% 94%  
188 3% 93%  
189 0.1% 90%  
190 0.2% 89%  
191 0.5% 89%  
192 0.3% 89%  
193 0.3% 89%  
194 7% 88%  
195 0.1% 81%  
196 0.6% 81%  
197 0% 80%  
198 4% 80%  
199 0.1% 76%  
200 0.3% 76%  
201 9% 75%  
202 1.4% 67%  
203 11% 65% Median
204 14% 55%  
205 2% 40%  
206 1.1% 38%  
207 0.7% 37%  
208 7% 36%  
209 0.3% 29%  
210 2% 29%  
211 10% 27%  
212 5% 17%  
213 2% 12%  
214 0.3% 10%  
215 0.5% 10%  
216 3% 9%  
217 3% 7%  
218 0.7% 3%  
219 0.2% 2%  
220 0.2% 2%  
221 0.6% 2%  
222 0.2% 1.3%  
223 0.6% 1.2%  
224 0% 0.6%  
225 0% 0.6%  
226 0.1% 0.5%  
227 0.1% 0.4%  
228 0% 0.3%  
229 0% 0.3%  
230 0% 0.3%  
231 0.1% 0.3%  
232 0% 0.2%  
233 0.1% 0.2%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0.4% 100%  
149 0% 99.6%  
150 0.4% 99.6%  
151 0.1% 99.2%  
152 0% 99.1%  
153 0% 99.1%  
154 2% 99.1%  
155 0.1% 97%  
156 0% 97%  
157 0.3% 97%  
158 2% 97%  
159 0.7% 95%  
160 3% 94%  
161 0.5% 91%  
162 0.1% 91%  
163 0.1% 91%  
164 0.6% 91%  
165 0.4% 90%  
166 8% 90%  
167 0.8% 82%  
168 0.1% 81%  
169 0.1% 81%  
170 0.2% 81%  
171 0.9% 81%  
172 13% 80%  
173 0.4% 67%  
174 0.2% 67%  
175 0.4% 67%  
176 8% 66%  
177 4% 58% Median
178 16% 54%  
179 0% 38%  
180 0% 38%  
181 0.3% 38%  
182 10% 38%  
183 9% 28%  
184 2% 19%  
185 4% 17%  
186 4% 13%  
187 0.1% 9%  
188 1.3% 9%  
189 5% 8%  
190 0.7% 3%  
191 0.4% 2%  
192 0% 2%  
193 0% 2%  
194 0.8% 2%  
195 0.1% 1.0%  
196 0% 0.9%  
197 0% 0.9%  
198 0.6% 0.9%  
199 0% 0.3%  
200 0% 0.3%  
201 0% 0.3%  
202 0% 0.3%  
203 0% 0.3%  
204 0.1% 0.3%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0% 100%  
140 0.4% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.5%  
142 0% 99.5%  
143 0.1% 99.5%  
144 0% 99.4%  
145 0% 99.4%  
146 2% 99.4%  
147 0.1% 97%  
148 0.2% 97%  
149 1.4% 97%  
150 0.3% 96%  
151 0.2% 95%  
152 2% 95%  
153 0.6% 93%  
154 0.7% 93%  
155 1.1% 92%  
156 1.0% 91%  
157 0.5% 90%  
158 7% 89%  
159 0.3% 82%  
160 0.1% 82%  
161 0.6% 82%  
162 0.4% 81%  
163 0.1% 81%  
164 0.1% 81%  
165 0.9% 80%  
166 0.1% 80%  
167 0.2% 80%  
168 17% 79%  
169 2% 62%  
170 8% 60%  
171 12% 52% Median
172 0.4% 40%  
173 0.3% 39%  
174 2% 39%  
175 2% 37%  
176 0.1% 35%  
177 0.8% 35%  
178 16% 34%  
179 0.1% 18%  
180 4% 18%  
181 7% 13%  
182 0.3% 7%  
183 2% 6%  
184 1.3% 4%  
185 1.0% 3%  
186 0.4% 2%  
187 0.1% 2%  
188 0% 2%  
189 0% 2%  
190 1.1% 2%  
191 0.1% 0.5%  
192 0% 0.4%  
193 0% 0.4%  
194 0% 0.3%  
195 0% 0.3%  
196 0% 0.3%  
197 0% 0.3%  
198 0% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0% 0.2%  
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0% 100%  
140 0.4% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.5%  
142 0% 99.5%  
143 0.1% 99.5%  
144 0% 99.4%  
145 0% 99.4%  
146 2% 99.4%  
147 0.1% 97%  
148 0.2% 97%  
149 1.4% 97%  
150 0.3% 96%  
151 0.2% 95%  
152 2% 95%  
153 0.6% 93%  
154 0.7% 93%  
155 1.1% 92%  
156 1.0% 91%  
157 0.5% 90%  
158 7% 89%  
159 0.3% 82%  
160 0.1% 82%  
161 0.6% 82%  
162 0.4% 81%  
163 0.1% 81%  
164 0.1% 81%  
165 0.9% 80%  
166 0.1% 80%  
167 0.2% 80%  
168 17% 79%  
169 2% 62%  
170 8% 60%  
171 12% 52% Median
172 0.4% 40%  
173 0.3% 39%  
174 2% 39%  
175 2% 37%  
176 0.1% 35%  
177 0.8% 35%  
178 16% 34%  
179 0.1% 18%  
180 4% 18%  
181 7% 13%  
182 0.3% 7%  
183 2% 6%  
184 1.3% 4%  
185 1.0% 3%  
186 0.4% 2%  
187 0.1% 2%  
188 0% 2%  
189 0% 2%  
190 1.1% 2%  
191 0.1% 0.5%  
192 0% 0.4%  
193 0% 0.4%  
194 0% 0.3%  
195 0% 0.3%  
196 0% 0.3%  
197 0% 0.3%  
198 0% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0% 0.2%  
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations