Opinion Poll by ICM Research, 22–25 November 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party |
43.4% |
40.9% |
39.5–42.3% |
39.1–42.8% |
38.8–43.1% |
38.1–43.8% |
Labour Party |
41.0% |
33.9% |
32.6–35.3% |
32.2–35.7% |
31.9–36.0% |
31.2–36.7% |
Liberal Democrats |
7.6% |
13.0% |
12.1–14.0% |
11.8–14.3% |
11.6–14.5% |
11.1–15.0% |
Brexit Party |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.5–4.6% |
3.3–4.8% |
3.2–5.0% |
3.0–5.3% |
Scottish National Party |
3.1% |
3.0% |
2.6–3.6% |
2.4–3.7% |
2.3–3.8% |
2.1–4.1% |
Green Party |
1.7% |
3.0% |
2.6–3.6% |
2.4–3.7% |
2.3–3.8% |
2.1–4.1% |
Plaid Cymru |
0.5% |
1.0% |
0.8–1.4% |
0.7–1.4% |
0.6–1.5% |
0.5–1.7% |
UK Independence Party |
1.9% |
0.2% |
0.2–0.5% |
0.1–0.5% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
286 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
287 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
288 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
289 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
290 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
291 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
293 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
295 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
296 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
297 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
298 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
299 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
300 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
301 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
302 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
303 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
304 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
|
305 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
306 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
307 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
308 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
309 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
310 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
311 |
2% |
96% |
|
312 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
313 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
314 |
0.9% |
94% |
|
315 |
1.2% |
93% |
|
316 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
317 |
2% |
91% |
Last Result |
318 |
0.7% |
88% |
|
319 |
1.3% |
88% |
|
320 |
6% |
86% |
|
321 |
2% |
81% |
|
322 |
2% |
79% |
|
323 |
1.2% |
77% |
|
324 |
5% |
76% |
|
325 |
3% |
71% |
|
326 |
2% |
67% |
Majority |
327 |
2% |
65% |
|
328 |
2% |
63% |
|
329 |
3% |
61% |
|
330 |
2% |
58% |
|
331 |
7% |
56% |
Median |
332 |
5% |
49% |
|
333 |
4% |
43% |
|
334 |
1.1% |
40% |
|
335 |
6% |
38% |
|
336 |
2% |
33% |
|
337 |
6% |
30% |
|
338 |
2% |
24% |
|
339 |
2% |
22% |
|
340 |
1.1% |
20% |
|
341 |
1.3% |
19% |
|
342 |
4% |
18% |
|
343 |
0.7% |
14% |
|
344 |
2% |
13% |
|
345 |
2% |
11% |
|
346 |
0.7% |
10% |
|
347 |
0.7% |
9% |
|
348 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
349 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
350 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
351 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
352 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
353 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
354 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
355 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
356 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
357 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
358 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
359 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
360 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
361 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
362 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
363 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
364 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
365 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
366 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
367 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
368 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
369 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
370 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
371 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
372 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
373 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
374 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
375 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
376 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
377 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
378 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
184 |
0% |
100% |
|
185 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
186 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
187 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
188 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
189 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
190 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
191 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
192 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
193 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
194 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
195 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
196 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
197 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
198 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
199 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
200 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
98.5% |
|
202 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
203 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
204 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
205 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
206 |
2% |
95% |
|
207 |
1.1% |
93% |
|
208 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
209 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
210 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
211 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
212 |
1.0% |
90% |
|
213 |
2% |
89% |
|
214 |
1.0% |
87% |
|
215 |
0.8% |
86% |
|
216 |
3% |
85% |
|
217 |
6% |
82% |
|
218 |
2% |
76% |
|
219 |
3% |
75% |
|
220 |
4% |
72% |
|
221 |
4% |
68% |
|
222 |
7% |
65% |
|
223 |
8% |
58% |
|
224 |
5% |
50% |
Median |
225 |
3% |
45% |
|
226 |
2% |
42% |
|
227 |
3% |
41% |
|
228 |
3% |
38% |
|
229 |
3% |
35% |
|
230 |
2% |
32% |
|
231 |
2% |
30% |
|
232 |
2% |
28% |
|
233 |
5% |
26% |
|
234 |
5% |
21% |
|
235 |
1.4% |
16% |
|
236 |
2% |
14% |
|
237 |
2% |
12% |
|
238 |
0.5% |
10% |
|
239 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
240 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
241 |
0.8% |
8% |
|
242 |
0.7% |
7% |
|
243 |
1.3% |
6% |
|
244 |
1.3% |
5% |
|
245 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
246 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
247 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
248 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
249 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
250 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
251 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
252 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
253 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
254 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
255 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
257 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
258 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
259 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
260 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
261 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
262 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
263 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
264 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
265 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
266 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
267 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
268 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
269 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
270 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
271 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
272 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
273 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
275 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
|
29 |
7% |
99.0% |
|
30 |
17% |
92% |
|
31 |
15% |
75% |
|
32 |
19% |
60% |
Median |
33 |
8% |
41% |
|
34 |
8% |
33% |
|
35 |
10% |
25% |
|
36 |
6% |
15% |
|
37 |
5% |
9% |
|
38 |
2% |
4% |
|
39 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
40 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
41 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
42 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
Brexit Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
8 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
9 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
|
17 |
1.0% |
98.5% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
19 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
20 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
22 |
1.3% |
96% |
|
23 |
3% |
95% |
|
24 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
25 |
0.5% |
92% |
|
26 |
3% |
91% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
88% |
|
28 |
3% |
88% |
|
29 |
1.0% |
84% |
|
30 |
0.5% |
83% |
|
31 |
2% |
83% |
|
32 |
1.2% |
81% |
|
33 |
4% |
79% |
|
34 |
2% |
75% |
|
35 |
4% |
73% |
Last Result |
36 |
3% |
69% |
|
37 |
4% |
67% |
|
38 |
3% |
63% |
|
39 |
1.1% |
60% |
|
40 |
13% |
59% |
Median |
41 |
20% |
45% |
|
42 |
8% |
26% |
|
43 |
0.5% |
17% |
|
44 |
0% |
17% |
|
45 |
8% |
17% |
|
46 |
0% |
9% |
|
47 |
4% |
9% |
|
48 |
3% |
5% |
|
49 |
0% |
2% |
|
50 |
2% |
2% |
|
51 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
4% |
100% |
|
4 |
23% |
96% |
Last Result |
5 |
51% |
72% |
Median |
6 |
7% |
21% |
|
7 |
0.4% |
15% |
|
8 |
13% |
14% |
|
9 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
UK Independence Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
356 |
374 |
99.9% |
360–388 |
353–394 |
349–397 |
337–407 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
352 |
369 |
99.8% |
354–382 |
348–389 |
344–391 |
332–402 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
329 |
363 |
99.8% |
350–377 |
346–383 |
342–388 |
334–398 |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
321 |
336 |
81% |
322–351 |
316–358 |
312–361 |
304–371 |
Conservative Party – Brexit Party |
317 |
331 |
67% |
317–345 |
311–352 |
307–355 |
299–366 |
Conservative Party |
317 |
331 |
67% |
317–345 |
311–352 |
307–355 |
299–366 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
314 |
301 |
2% |
287–315 |
280–321 |
277–325 |
266–333 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
313 |
300 |
2% |
286–314 |
279–320 |
276–324 |
265–332 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
309 |
295 |
0.8% |
280–309 |
273–315 |
270–319 |
260–327 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
301 |
268 |
0% |
254–281 |
248–285 |
243–289 |
233–297 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru |
278 |
262 |
0% |
249–277 |
242–283 |
240–287 |
229–299 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
297 |
262 |
0% |
249–275 |
241–281 |
238–284 |
229–292 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
274 |
257 |
0% |
243–271 |
237–278 |
234–282 |
224–294 |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
266 |
228 |
0% |
217–243 |
211–249 |
209–252 |
198–263 |
Labour Party |
262 |
224 |
0% |
211–237 |
206–243 |
203–247 |
193–258 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
321 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
322 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
323 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
324 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
325 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
326 |
0% |
99.9% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
328 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
329 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
330 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
331 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
332 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
333 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
334 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
335 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
336 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
337 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
342 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
343 |
0% |
98.8% |
|
344 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
|
345 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
346 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
347 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
348 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
349 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
350 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
351 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
352 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
353 |
2% |
96% |
|
354 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
355 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
356 |
0.7% |
93% |
Last Result |
357 |
1.1% |
92% |
|
358 |
0.6% |
91% |
|
359 |
0.7% |
91% |
|
360 |
2% |
90% |
|
361 |
0.9% |
88% |
|
362 |
1.5% |
87% |
|
363 |
2% |
86% |
|
364 |
3% |
84% |
|
365 |
8% |
81% |
|
366 |
2% |
74% |
|
367 |
2% |
72% |
|
368 |
1.1% |
70% |
|
369 |
4% |
69% |
|
370 |
1.4% |
65% |
|
371 |
3% |
64% |
|
372 |
6% |
61% |
|
373 |
3% |
55% |
|
374 |
5% |
52% |
|
375 |
0.7% |
46% |
|
376 |
7% |
46% |
Median |
377 |
4% |
39% |
|
378 |
2% |
34% |
|
379 |
3% |
32% |
|
380 |
2% |
30% |
|
381 |
4% |
28% |
|
382 |
0.9% |
24% |
|
383 |
2% |
23% |
|
384 |
5% |
20% |
|
385 |
0.9% |
15% |
|
386 |
2% |
14% |
|
387 |
1.0% |
12% |
|
388 |
2% |
11% |
|
389 |
0.5% |
9% |
|
390 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
391 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
392 |
2% |
8% |
|
393 |
0.9% |
6% |
|
394 |
1.1% |
5% |
|
395 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
396 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
397 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
398 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
399 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
400 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
401 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
402 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
403 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
404 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
405 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
406 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
407 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
408 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
409 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
410 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
411 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
412 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
413 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
414 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
415 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
416 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
417 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
316 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
317 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
318 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
319 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
320 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
321 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
322 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
323 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
324 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
325 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
326 |
0% |
99.8% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
328 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
329 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
330 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
331 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
332 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
334 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
335 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
336 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
337 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
339 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
341 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
342 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
343 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
344 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
345 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
346 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
347 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
348 |
1.2% |
96% |
|
349 |
1.3% |
95% |
|
350 |
0.6% |
93% |
|
351 |
0.5% |
93% |
|
352 |
0.8% |
92% |
Last Result |
353 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
354 |
2% |
91% |
|
355 |
2% |
89% |
|
356 |
0.8% |
87% |
|
357 |
0.9% |
87% |
|
358 |
2% |
86% |
|
359 |
3% |
84% |
|
360 |
4% |
81% |
|
361 |
4% |
76% |
|
362 |
3% |
72% |
|
363 |
0.8% |
69% |
|
364 |
3% |
68% |
|
365 |
1.4% |
65% |
|
366 |
4% |
64% |
|
367 |
2% |
60% |
|
368 |
5% |
58% |
|
369 |
6% |
53% |
|
370 |
2% |
47% |
|
371 |
7% |
45% |
Median |
372 |
4% |
38% |
|
373 |
4% |
34% |
|
374 |
2% |
30% |
|
375 |
1.1% |
29% |
|
376 |
5% |
28% |
|
377 |
0.9% |
22% |
|
378 |
3% |
22% |
|
379 |
6% |
19% |
|
380 |
1.3% |
13% |
|
381 |
1.5% |
12% |
|
382 |
0.3% |
10% |
|
383 |
2% |
10% |
|
384 |
0.3% |
8% |
|
385 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
386 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
387 |
1.1% |
7% |
|
388 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
389 |
2% |
5% |
|
390 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
391 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
392 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
393 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
394 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
395 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
396 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
397 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
398 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
399 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
400 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
401 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
402 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
403 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
404 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
405 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
406 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
407 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
408 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
409 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
410 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
411 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
412 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
320 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
321 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
322 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
323 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
324 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
325 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
326 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
Majority |
327 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
328 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
329 |
0% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
330 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
331 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
332 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
333 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
334 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
335 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
336 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
337 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
338 |
1.0% |
99.0% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
341 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
342 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
343 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
344 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
345 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
346 |
2% |
95% |
|
347 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
348 |
2% |
93% |
|
349 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
350 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
351 |
2% |
90% |
|
352 |
4% |
88% |
|
353 |
1.2% |
84% |
|
354 |
2% |
83% |
|
355 |
3% |
81% |
|
356 |
6% |
78% |
|
357 |
2% |
72% |
|
358 |
2% |
70% |
|
359 |
4% |
68% |
|
360 |
1.0% |
64% |
|
361 |
2% |
63% |
|
362 |
2% |
62% |
|
363 |
10% |
60% |
Median |
364 |
2% |
50% |
|
365 |
7% |
47% |
|
366 |
4% |
41% |
|
367 |
7% |
37% |
|
368 |
1.3% |
30% |
|
369 |
2% |
28% |
|
370 |
3% |
26% |
|
371 |
2% |
23% |
|
372 |
0.6% |
20% |
|
373 |
2% |
20% |
|
374 |
3% |
18% |
|
375 |
0.9% |
15% |
|
376 |
0.7% |
14% |
|
377 |
4% |
13% |
|
378 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
379 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
380 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
381 |
0.7% |
7% |
|
382 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
383 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
384 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
385 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
386 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
387 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
388 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
389 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
390 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
391 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
392 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
393 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
394 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
395 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
396 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
397 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
398 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
399 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
400 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
401 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
402 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
403 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
404 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
405 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
406 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
407 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
291 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
292 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
293 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
294 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
295 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
296 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
297 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
298 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
299 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
300 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
301 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
302 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
303 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
304 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
305 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
306 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
307 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
308 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
309 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
310 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
311 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
312 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
313 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
314 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
315 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
316 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
317 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
318 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
319 |
0.9% |
94% |
|
320 |
1.0% |
93% |
|
321 |
1.2% |
92% |
Last Result |
322 |
2% |
91% |
|
323 |
0.4% |
88% |
|
324 |
2% |
88% |
|
325 |
5% |
86% |
|
326 |
2% |
81% |
Majority |
327 |
1.0% |
79% |
|
328 |
2% |
78% |
|
329 |
5% |
76% |
|
330 |
3% |
71% |
|
331 |
2% |
68% |
|
332 |
2% |
66% |
|
333 |
4% |
64% |
|
334 |
1.5% |
60% |
|
335 |
3% |
59% |
|
336 |
9% |
56% |
Median |
337 |
4% |
47% |
|
338 |
2% |
43% |
|
339 |
1.1% |
41% |
|
340 |
5% |
40% |
|
341 |
4% |
35% |
|
342 |
7% |
31% |
|
343 |
2% |
25% |
|
344 |
2% |
23% |
|
345 |
0.9% |
21% |
|
346 |
4% |
20% |
|
347 |
1.4% |
16% |
|
348 |
1.0% |
15% |
|
349 |
1.3% |
14% |
|
350 |
2% |
13% |
|
351 |
1.3% |
10% |
|
352 |
0.5% |
9% |
|
353 |
1.1% |
9% |
|
354 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
355 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
356 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
357 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
358 |
1.0% |
5% |
|
359 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
361 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
362 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
363 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
364 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
365 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
366 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
367 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
368 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
369 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
370 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
371 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
372 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
373 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
374 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
375 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
376 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
377 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
378 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
379 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
380 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
381 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
382 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
383 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Brexit Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
286 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
287 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
288 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
289 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
290 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
291 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
293 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
295 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
296 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
297 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
298 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
299 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
300 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
301 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
302 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
303 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
304 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
|
305 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
306 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
307 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
308 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
309 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
310 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
311 |
2% |
96% |
|
312 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
313 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
314 |
0.9% |
94% |
|
315 |
1.2% |
93% |
|
316 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
317 |
2% |
91% |
Last Result |
318 |
0.7% |
88% |
|
319 |
1.3% |
88% |
|
320 |
6% |
86% |
|
321 |
2% |
81% |
|
322 |
2% |
79% |
|
323 |
1.2% |
77% |
|
324 |
5% |
76% |
|
325 |
3% |
71% |
|
326 |
2% |
67% |
Majority |
327 |
2% |
65% |
|
328 |
2% |
63% |
|
329 |
3% |
61% |
|
330 |
2% |
58% |
|
331 |
7% |
56% |
Median |
332 |
5% |
49% |
|
333 |
4% |
43% |
|
334 |
1.1% |
40% |
|
335 |
6% |
38% |
|
336 |
2% |
33% |
|
337 |
6% |
30% |
|
338 |
2% |
24% |
|
339 |
2% |
22% |
|
340 |
1.1% |
20% |
|
341 |
1.3% |
19% |
|
342 |
4% |
18% |
|
343 |
0.7% |
14% |
|
344 |
2% |
13% |
|
345 |
2% |
11% |
|
346 |
0.7% |
10% |
|
347 |
0.7% |
9% |
|
348 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
349 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
350 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
351 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
352 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
353 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
354 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
355 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
356 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
357 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
358 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
359 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
360 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
361 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
362 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
363 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
364 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
365 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
366 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
367 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
368 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
369 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
370 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
371 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
372 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
373 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
374 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
375 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
376 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
377 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
378 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
286 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
287 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
288 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
289 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
290 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
291 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
293 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
295 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
296 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
297 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
298 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
299 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
300 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
301 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
302 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
303 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
304 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
|
305 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
306 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
307 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
308 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
309 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
310 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
311 |
2% |
96% |
|
312 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
313 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
314 |
0.9% |
94% |
|
315 |
1.2% |
93% |
|
316 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
317 |
2% |
91% |
Last Result |
318 |
0.7% |
88% |
|
319 |
1.3% |
88% |
|
320 |
6% |
86% |
|
321 |
2% |
81% |
|
322 |
2% |
79% |
|
323 |
1.2% |
77% |
|
324 |
5% |
76% |
|
325 |
3% |
71% |
|
326 |
2% |
67% |
Majority |
327 |
2% |
65% |
|
328 |
2% |
63% |
|
329 |
3% |
61% |
|
330 |
2% |
58% |
|
331 |
7% |
56% |
Median |
332 |
5% |
49% |
|
333 |
4% |
43% |
|
334 |
1.1% |
40% |
|
335 |
6% |
38% |
|
336 |
2% |
33% |
|
337 |
6% |
30% |
|
338 |
2% |
24% |
|
339 |
2% |
22% |
|
340 |
1.1% |
20% |
|
341 |
1.3% |
19% |
|
342 |
4% |
18% |
|
343 |
0.7% |
14% |
|
344 |
2% |
13% |
|
345 |
2% |
11% |
|
346 |
0.7% |
10% |
|
347 |
0.7% |
9% |
|
348 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
349 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
350 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
351 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
352 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
353 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
354 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
355 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
356 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
357 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
358 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
359 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
360 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
361 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
362 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
363 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
364 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
365 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
366 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
367 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
368 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
369 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
370 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
371 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
372 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
373 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
374 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
375 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
376 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
377 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
378 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
257 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
258 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
259 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
260 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
261 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
262 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
263 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
264 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
266 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
267 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
268 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
269 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
272 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
273 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
274 |
0.5% |
98.6% |
|
275 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
276 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
277 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
278 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
279 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
280 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
281 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
282 |
0.8% |
94% |
|
283 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
284 |
1.2% |
93% |
|
285 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
286 |
0.7% |
91% |
|
287 |
2% |
90% |
|
288 |
2% |
89% |
|
289 |
0.7% |
87% |
|
290 |
4% |
86% |
|
291 |
1.3% |
82% |
|
292 |
1.1% |
81% |
|
293 |
2% |
80% |
|
294 |
2% |
78% |
|
295 |
6% |
76% |
|
296 |
2% |
70% |
|
297 |
6% |
67% |
|
298 |
1.1% |
62% |
|
299 |
4% |
60% |
|
300 |
5% |
57% |
|
301 |
7% |
51% |
|
302 |
2% |
44% |
Median |
303 |
3% |
42% |
|
304 |
2% |
39% |
|
305 |
2% |
37% |
|
306 |
2% |
35% |
|
307 |
3% |
33% |
|
308 |
5% |
29% |
|
309 |
1.2% |
24% |
|
310 |
2% |
23% |
|
311 |
2% |
21% |
|
312 |
6% |
19% |
|
313 |
1.3% |
14% |
|
314 |
0.7% |
12% |
Last Result |
315 |
2% |
12% |
|
316 |
0.7% |
9% |
|
317 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
318 |
0.9% |
7% |
|
319 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
320 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
321 |
2% |
5% |
|
322 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
323 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
324 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
325 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
326 |
0.1% |
2% |
Majority |
327 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
328 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
329 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
330 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
332 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
334 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
335 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
336 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
337 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
339 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
342 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
343 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
345 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
346 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
347 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
348 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
256 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
257 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
258 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
259 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
260 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
261 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
262 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
263 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
264 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
266 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
267 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
269 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
271 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
272 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
273 |
0.5% |
98.6% |
|
274 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
275 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
276 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
277 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
278 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
279 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
280 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
281 |
0.8% |
94% |
|
282 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
283 |
1.2% |
93% |
|
284 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
285 |
0.7% |
91% |
|
286 |
2% |
90% |
|
287 |
2% |
89% |
|
288 |
0.7% |
87% |
|
289 |
4% |
86% |
|
290 |
1.3% |
82% |
|
291 |
1.1% |
81% |
|
292 |
2% |
80% |
|
293 |
2% |
78% |
|
294 |
6% |
76% |
|
295 |
2% |
70% |
|
296 |
6% |
67% |
|
297 |
1.1% |
62% |
|
298 |
4% |
60% |
|
299 |
5% |
57% |
|
300 |
7% |
51% |
|
301 |
2% |
44% |
Median |
302 |
3% |
42% |
|
303 |
2% |
39% |
|
304 |
2% |
37% |
|
305 |
2% |
35% |
|
306 |
3% |
33% |
|
307 |
5% |
29% |
|
308 |
1.2% |
24% |
|
309 |
2% |
23% |
|
310 |
2% |
21% |
|
311 |
6% |
19% |
|
312 |
1.3% |
14% |
|
313 |
0.7% |
12% |
Last Result |
314 |
2% |
12% |
|
315 |
0.7% |
9% |
|
316 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
317 |
0.9% |
7% |
|
318 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
319 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
320 |
2% |
5% |
|
321 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
322 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
323 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
324 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
325 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
326 |
0.2% |
2% |
Majority |
327 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
328 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
329 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
331 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
332 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
333 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
334 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
335 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
336 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
337 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
338 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
340 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
342 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
343 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
345 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
346 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
347 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
251 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
252 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
253 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
254 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
255 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
256 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
257 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
258 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
259 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
260 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
261 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
262 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
263 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
264 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
266 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
267 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
268 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
269 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
270 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
272 |
1.2% |
97% |
|
273 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
274 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
275 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
276 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
277 |
0.6% |
93% |
|
278 |
1.1% |
93% |
|
279 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
280 |
1.3% |
91% |
|
281 |
2% |
90% |
|
282 |
1.3% |
87% |
|
283 |
1.0% |
86% |
|
284 |
1.4% |
85% |
|
285 |
4% |
84% |
|
286 |
0.9% |
80% |
|
287 |
2% |
79% |
|
288 |
2% |
77% |
|
289 |
7% |
75% |
|
290 |
4% |
69% |
|
291 |
5% |
65% |
|
292 |
1.1% |
60% |
|
293 |
2% |
59% |
|
294 |
4% |
57% |
|
295 |
9% |
53% |
|
296 |
3% |
44% |
Median |
297 |
1.5% |
41% |
|
298 |
4% |
40% |
|
299 |
2% |
36% |
|
300 |
2% |
34% |
|
301 |
3% |
32% |
|
302 |
5% |
29% |
|
303 |
2% |
24% |
|
304 |
1.0% |
22% |
|
305 |
2% |
21% |
|
306 |
5% |
19% |
|
307 |
2% |
14% |
|
308 |
0.4% |
12% |
|
309 |
2% |
12% |
Last Result |
310 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
311 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
312 |
0.9% |
7% |
|
313 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
314 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
315 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
316 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
317 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
318 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
319 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
320 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
321 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
322 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
323 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
324 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
325 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
326 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
Majority |
327 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
328 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
329 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
330 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
331 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
332 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
334 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
335 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
336 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
337 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
338 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
339 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
340 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
342 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
227 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
228 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
229 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
230 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
231 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
232 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
233 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
234 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
235 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
236 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
237 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
238 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
239 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
240 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
241 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
242 |
0.7% |
98.6% |
|
243 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
244 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
245 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
246 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
247 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
248 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
249 |
0.8% |
95% |
|
250 |
0.7% |
94% |
|
251 |
1.2% |
93% |
|
252 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
253 |
0.8% |
91% |
|
254 |
4% |
91% |
|
255 |
0.7% |
87% |
|
256 |
0.9% |
86% |
|
257 |
3% |
85% |
|
258 |
2% |
82% |
|
259 |
0.6% |
80% |
|
260 |
2% |
80% |
|
261 |
3% |
77% |
|
262 |
2% |
74% |
|
263 |
1.3% |
72% |
|
264 |
7% |
70% |
|
265 |
4% |
63% |
|
266 |
7% |
59% |
|
267 |
2% |
53% |
|
268 |
10% |
50% |
|
269 |
2% |
40% |
Median |
270 |
2% |
38% |
|
271 |
1.0% |
37% |
|
272 |
4% |
36% |
|
273 |
2% |
32% |
|
274 |
2% |
30% |
|
275 |
6% |
28% |
|
276 |
3% |
22% |
|
277 |
2% |
19% |
|
278 |
1.2% |
17% |
|
279 |
4% |
16% |
|
280 |
2% |
12% |
|
281 |
1.0% |
10% |
|
282 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
283 |
2% |
8% |
|
284 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
285 |
2% |
6% |
|
286 |
1.0% |
5% |
|
287 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
288 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
289 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
290 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
293 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
294 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
295 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
296 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
297 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
298 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
299 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
300 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
301 |
0% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
302 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
303 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
304 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
305 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
306 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
307 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
308 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
309 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
310 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
311 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
312 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
313 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
220 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
221 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
222 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
223 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
224 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
225 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
226 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
227 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
228 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
229 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
230 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
231 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
232 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
233 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
234 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
235 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
236 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
237 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
238 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
239 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
240 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
241 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
242 |
2% |
96% |
|
243 |
0.7% |
95% |
|
244 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
245 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
246 |
0.7% |
93% |
|
247 |
0.3% |
92% |
|
248 |
2% |
92% |
|
249 |
0.3% |
90% |
|
250 |
1.5% |
90% |
|
251 |
1.3% |
88% |
|
252 |
6% |
87% |
|
253 |
3% |
81% |
|
254 |
0.9% |
78% |
|
255 |
5% |
78% |
|
256 |
1.1% |
72% |
|
257 |
2% |
71% |
|
258 |
4% |
70% |
|
259 |
4% |
66% |
|
260 |
7% |
62% |
|
261 |
2% |
55% |
Median |
262 |
6% |
53% |
|
263 |
5% |
47% |
|
264 |
2% |
42% |
|
265 |
4% |
40% |
|
266 |
1.4% |
36% |
|
267 |
3% |
35% |
|
268 |
0.8% |
32% |
|
269 |
3% |
31% |
|
270 |
4% |
28% |
|
271 |
4% |
24% |
|
272 |
3% |
19% |
|
273 |
2% |
16% |
|
274 |
0.9% |
14% |
|
275 |
0.8% |
13% |
|
276 |
2% |
13% |
|
277 |
2% |
11% |
|
278 |
0.9% |
9% |
Last Result |
279 |
0.8% |
8% |
|
280 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
281 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
282 |
1.3% |
7% |
|
283 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
284 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
285 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
286 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
287 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
288 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
289 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
290 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
292 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
293 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
295 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
296 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
297 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
298 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
299 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
300 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
301 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
302 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
303 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
304 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
305 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
306 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
307 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
308 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
309 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
310 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
311 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
312 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
313 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
314 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
315 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
316 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
317 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
220 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
222 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
223 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
224 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
225 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
226 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
227 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
228 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
229 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
230 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
231 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
232 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
233 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
234 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
235 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
236 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
237 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
238 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
239 |
1.4% |
97% |
|
240 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
241 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
242 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
243 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
244 |
0.7% |
94% |
|
245 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
246 |
0.7% |
93% |
|
247 |
1.2% |
92% |
|
248 |
0.8% |
91% |
|
249 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
250 |
5% |
89% |
|
251 |
2% |
85% |
|
252 |
2% |
83% |
|
253 |
2% |
81% |
|
254 |
1.5% |
79% |
|
255 |
1.2% |
77% |
|
256 |
3% |
76% |
|
257 |
2% |
73% |
|
258 |
2% |
72% |
|
259 |
8% |
69% |
|
260 |
2% |
61% |
|
261 |
8% |
59% |
|
262 |
1.1% |
51% |
|
263 |
7% |
50% |
|
264 |
3% |
42% |
Median |
265 |
3% |
39% |
|
266 |
0.6% |
36% |
|
267 |
4% |
36% |
|
268 |
2% |
31% |
|
269 |
2% |
29% |
|
270 |
3% |
27% |
|
271 |
5% |
24% |
|
272 |
2% |
19% |
|
273 |
1.0% |
17% |
|
274 |
4% |
16% |
|
275 |
2% |
11% |
|
276 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
277 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
278 |
2% |
8% |
|
279 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
280 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
281 |
2% |
5% |
|
282 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
283 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
284 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
285 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
286 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
287 |
0% |
2% |
|
288 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
289 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
290 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
292 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
293 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
294 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
295 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
296 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
297 |
0% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
298 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
299 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
300 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
301 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
302 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
303 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
304 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
305 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
306 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
307 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
308 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
215 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
216 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
217 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
218 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
219 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
220 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
221 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
222 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
223 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
224 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
225 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
226 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
227 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
228 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
229 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
230 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
231 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
232 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
233 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
234 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
235 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
236 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
237 |
1.1% |
96% |
|
238 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
239 |
2% |
94% |
|
240 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
241 |
0.3% |
92% |
|
242 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
243 |
2% |
91% |
|
244 |
1.0% |
89% |
|
245 |
2% |
88% |
|
246 |
0.9% |
86% |
|
247 |
5% |
85% |
|
248 |
2% |
80% |
|
249 |
0.9% |
77% |
|
250 |
4% |
76% |
|
251 |
2% |
72% |
|
252 |
3% |
70% |
|
253 |
2% |
68% |
|
254 |
4% |
66% |
|
255 |
7% |
61% |
|
256 |
0.7% |
54% |
Median |
257 |
5% |
54% |
|
258 |
3% |
48% |
|
259 |
6% |
45% |
|
260 |
3% |
39% |
|
261 |
1.4% |
36% |
|
262 |
4% |
35% |
|
263 |
1.1% |
31% |
|
264 |
2% |
30% |
|
265 |
2% |
28% |
|
266 |
8% |
26% |
|
267 |
3% |
19% |
|
268 |
2% |
16% |
|
269 |
1.5% |
14% |
|
270 |
0.9% |
13% |
|
271 |
2% |
12% |
|
272 |
0.7% |
10% |
|
273 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
274 |
1.1% |
9% |
Last Result |
275 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
276 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
277 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
278 |
2% |
6% |
|
279 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
280 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
281 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
282 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
283 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
284 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
285 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
286 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
287 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
288 |
0% |
1.3% |
|
289 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
290 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
293 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
294 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
295 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
296 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
297 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
298 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
299 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
300 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
301 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
302 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
303 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
304 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
305 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
306 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
307 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
308 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
309 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
310 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
311 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
312 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
191 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
192 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
193 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
194 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
195 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
196 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
197 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
198 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
199 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
200 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
201 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
202 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
203 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
204 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
205 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
206 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
207 |
0.7% |
98.6% |
|
208 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
209 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
210 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
211 |
2% |
96% |
|
212 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
213 |
0.5% |
93% |
|
214 |
0.4% |
92% |
|
215 |
0.2% |
92% |
|
216 |
0.7% |
91% |
|
217 |
1.4% |
91% |
|
218 |
0.4% |
89% |
|
219 |
0.3% |
89% |
|
220 |
1.3% |
89% |
|
221 |
3% |
87% |
|
222 |
7% |
85% |
|
223 |
1.3% |
77% |
|
224 |
2% |
76% |
|
225 |
5% |
74% |
|
226 |
2% |
69% |
|
227 |
11% |
67% |
|
228 |
9% |
56% |
|
229 |
3% |
47% |
Median |
230 |
2% |
44% |
|
231 |
1.3% |
42% |
|
232 |
2% |
40% |
|
233 |
2% |
38% |
|
234 |
4% |
36% |
|
235 |
1.3% |
31% |
|
236 |
2% |
30% |
|
237 |
4% |
28% |
|
238 |
4% |
25% |
|
239 |
5% |
21% |
|
240 |
2% |
16% |
|
241 |
2% |
14% |
|
242 |
1.2% |
12% |
|
243 |
1.0% |
11% |
|
244 |
0.9% |
10% |
|
245 |
0.9% |
9% |
|
246 |
0.6% |
8% |
|
247 |
1.4% |
7% |
|
248 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
249 |
2% |
5% |
|
250 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
251 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
252 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
253 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
254 |
0% |
2% |
|
255 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
257 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
258 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
259 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
260 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
261 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
262 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
263 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
264 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
265 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
266 |
0% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
267 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
268 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
269 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
270 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
271 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
272 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
273 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
275 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
276 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
277 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
278 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
279 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
280 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
184 |
0% |
100% |
|
185 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
186 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
187 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
188 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
189 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
190 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
191 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
192 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
193 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
194 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
195 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
196 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
197 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
198 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
199 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
200 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
98.5% |
|
202 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
203 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
204 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
205 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
206 |
2% |
95% |
|
207 |
1.1% |
93% |
|
208 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
209 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
210 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
211 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
212 |
1.0% |
90% |
|
213 |
2% |
89% |
|
214 |
1.0% |
87% |
|
215 |
0.8% |
86% |
|
216 |
3% |
85% |
|
217 |
6% |
82% |
|
218 |
2% |
76% |
|
219 |
3% |
75% |
|
220 |
4% |
72% |
|
221 |
4% |
68% |
|
222 |
7% |
65% |
|
223 |
8% |
58% |
|
224 |
5% |
50% |
Median |
225 |
3% |
45% |
|
226 |
2% |
42% |
|
227 |
3% |
41% |
|
228 |
3% |
38% |
|
229 |
3% |
35% |
|
230 |
2% |
32% |
|
231 |
2% |
30% |
|
232 |
2% |
28% |
|
233 |
5% |
26% |
|
234 |
5% |
21% |
|
235 |
1.4% |
16% |
|
236 |
2% |
14% |
|
237 |
2% |
12% |
|
238 |
0.5% |
10% |
|
239 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
240 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
241 |
0.8% |
8% |
|
242 |
0.7% |
7% |
|
243 |
1.3% |
6% |
|
244 |
1.3% |
5% |
|
245 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
246 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
247 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
248 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
249 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
250 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
251 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
252 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
253 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
254 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
255 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
257 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
258 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
259 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
260 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
261 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
262 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
263 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
264 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
265 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
266 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
267 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
268 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
269 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
270 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
271 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
272 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
273 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
275 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: ICM Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 22–25 November 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2004
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.49%