Opinion Poll by ICM Research, 22–25 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 40.9% 39.5–42.3% 39.1–42.8% 38.8–43.1% 38.1–43.8%
Labour Party 41.0% 33.9% 32.6–35.3% 32.2–35.7% 31.9–36.0% 31.2–36.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.1–15.0%
Brexit Party 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.7% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 331 317–345 311–352 307–355 299–366
Labour Party 262 224 211–237 206–243 203–247 193–258
Liberal Democrats 12 32 30–36 29–37 29–38 28–41
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 35 40 26–45 22–47 18–48 11–50
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–8 4–8 3–8 3–9
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0% 99.6%  
296 0% 99.6%  
297 0% 99.6%  
298 0% 99.5%  
299 0.1% 99.5%  
300 0.2% 99.4%  
301 0% 99.2%  
302 0.2% 99.2%  
303 0.4% 99.0%  
304 0.4% 98.7%  
305 0.2% 98%  
306 0.1% 98%  
307 0.8% 98%  
308 0.3% 97%  
309 0.4% 97%  
310 0.5% 97%  
311 2% 96%  
312 0.3% 95%  
313 0.6% 94%  
314 0.9% 94%  
315 1.2% 93%  
316 0.7% 92%  
317 2% 91% Last Result
318 0.7% 88%  
319 1.3% 88%  
320 6% 86%  
321 2% 81%  
322 2% 79%  
323 1.2% 77%  
324 5% 76%  
325 3% 71%  
326 2% 67% Majority
327 2% 65%  
328 2% 63%  
329 3% 61%  
330 2% 58%  
331 7% 56% Median
332 5% 49%  
333 4% 43%  
334 1.1% 40%  
335 6% 38%  
336 2% 33%  
337 6% 30%  
338 2% 24%  
339 2% 22%  
340 1.1% 20%  
341 1.3% 19%  
342 4% 18%  
343 0.7% 14%  
344 2% 13%  
345 2% 11%  
346 0.7% 10%  
347 0.7% 9%  
348 1.2% 8%  
349 0.5% 7%  
350 0.8% 6%  
351 0.4% 6%  
352 0.6% 5%  
353 0.6% 5%  
354 1.3% 4%  
355 0.2% 3%  
356 0.4% 2%  
357 0.1% 2%  
358 0.5% 2%  
359 0.1% 1.4%  
360 0.2% 1.3%  
361 0.1% 1.1%  
362 0.1% 1.0%  
363 0.1% 0.9%  
364 0% 0.7%  
365 0.1% 0.7%  
366 0.1% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.5%  
368 0% 0.3%  
369 0% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.3%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
184 0% 100%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0.1% 99.9%  
187 0% 99.8%  
188 0% 99.8%  
189 0.1% 99.8%  
190 0.1% 99.7%  
191 0% 99.6%  
192 0.1% 99.6%  
193 0.1% 99.5%  
194 0% 99.4%  
195 0.2% 99.4%  
196 0.1% 99.2%  
197 0.1% 99.2%  
198 0.1% 99.1%  
199 0.2% 99.0%  
200 0.3% 98.8%  
201 0.1% 98.5%  
202 0.8% 98%  
203 0.8% 98%  
204 0.7% 97%  
205 0.8% 96%  
206 2% 95%  
207 1.1% 93%  
208 0.6% 92%  
209 0.6% 92%  
210 0.5% 91%  
211 0.5% 91%  
212 1.0% 90%  
213 2% 89%  
214 1.0% 87%  
215 0.8% 86%  
216 3% 85%  
217 6% 82%  
218 2% 76%  
219 3% 75%  
220 4% 72%  
221 4% 68%  
222 7% 65%  
223 8% 58%  
224 5% 50% Median
225 3% 45%  
226 2% 42%  
227 3% 41%  
228 3% 38%  
229 3% 35%  
230 2% 32%  
231 2% 30%  
232 2% 28%  
233 5% 26%  
234 5% 21%  
235 1.4% 16%  
236 2% 14%  
237 2% 12%  
238 0.5% 10%  
239 1.2% 9%  
240 0.5% 8%  
241 0.8% 8%  
242 0.7% 7%  
243 1.3% 6%  
244 1.3% 5%  
245 0.5% 4%  
246 0.3% 3%  
247 0.6% 3%  
248 0.1% 2%  
249 0.1% 2%  
250 0.4% 2%  
251 0.1% 2%  
252 0.2% 2%  
253 0.2% 1.4%  
254 0.2% 1.1%  
255 0.1% 0.9%  
256 0.1% 0.8%  
257 0.2% 0.7%  
258 0% 0.5%  
259 0.1% 0.5%  
260 0% 0.4%  
261 0% 0.4%  
262 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.2%  
266 0% 0.2%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 0.5% 99.6%  
29 7% 99.0%  
30 17% 92%  
31 15% 75%  
32 19% 60% Median
33 8% 41%  
34 8% 33%  
35 10% 25%  
36 6% 15%  
37 5% 9%  
38 2% 4%  
39 1.3% 2%  
40 0.3% 0.9%  
41 0.2% 0.6%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 0.1% 99.9%  
6 0.1% 99.8%  
7 0.1% 99.7%  
8 0% 99.7%  
9 0% 99.7%  
10 0.1% 99.7%  
11 0.2% 99.5%  
12 0.1% 99.3%  
13 0.1% 99.3%  
14 0.3% 99.2%  
15 0.1% 98.9%  
16 0.2% 98.7%  
17 1.0% 98.5%  
18 0.2% 98%  
19 0.5% 97%  
20 0.6% 97%  
21 0.2% 96%  
22 1.3% 96%  
23 3% 95%  
24 0.6% 92%  
25 0.5% 92%  
26 3% 91%  
27 0.1% 88%  
28 3% 88%  
29 1.0% 84%  
30 0.5% 83%  
31 2% 83%  
32 1.2% 81%  
33 4% 79%  
34 2% 75%  
35 4% 73% Last Result
36 3% 69%  
37 4% 67%  
38 3% 63%  
39 1.1% 60%  
40 13% 59% Median
41 20% 45%  
42 8% 26%  
43 0.5% 17%  
44 0% 17%  
45 8% 17%  
46 0% 9%  
47 4% 9%  
48 3% 5%  
49 0% 2%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 4% 100%  
4 23% 96% Last Result
5 51% 72% Median
6 7% 21%  
7 0.4% 15%  
8 13% 14%  
9 1.1% 1.4%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 374 99.9% 360–388 353–394 349–397 337–407
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 369 99.8% 354–382 348–389 344–391 332–402
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 363 99.8% 350–377 346–383 342–388 334–398
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 336 81% 322–351 316–358 312–361 304–371
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 331 67% 317–345 311–352 307–355 299–366
Conservative Party 317 331 67% 317–345 311–352 307–355 299–366
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 314 301 2% 287–315 280–321 277–325 266–333
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 300 2% 286–314 279–320 276–324 265–332
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 295 0.8% 280–309 273–315 270–319 260–327
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 268 0% 254–281 248–285 243–289 233–297
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 262 0% 249–277 242–283 240–287 229–299
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 262 0% 249–275 241–281 238–284 229–292
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 257 0% 243–271 237–278 234–282 224–294
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 228 0% 217–243 211–249 209–252 198–263
Labour Party 262 224 0% 211–237 206–243 203–247 193–258

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9% Majority
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.8%  
330 0% 99.8%  
331 0% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0% 99.7%  
334 0.1% 99.7%  
335 0% 99.7%  
336 0% 99.7%  
337 0.3% 99.6%  
338 0.1% 99.4%  
339 0.1% 99.3%  
340 0.1% 99.2%  
341 0.1% 99.1%  
342 0.3% 99.0%  
343 0% 98.8%  
344 0.2% 98.7%  
345 0.1% 98.6%  
346 0.4% 98%  
347 0.2% 98%  
348 0.4% 98%  
349 0.3% 98%  
350 0.3% 97%  
351 0.3% 97%  
352 0.5% 97%  
353 2% 96%  
354 0.6% 94%  
355 0.5% 94%  
356 0.7% 93% Last Result
357 1.1% 92%  
358 0.6% 91%  
359 0.7% 91%  
360 2% 90%  
361 0.9% 88%  
362 1.5% 87%  
363 2% 86%  
364 3% 84%  
365 8% 81%  
366 2% 74%  
367 2% 72%  
368 1.1% 70%  
369 4% 69%  
370 1.4% 65%  
371 3% 64%  
372 6% 61%  
373 3% 55%  
374 5% 52%  
375 0.7% 46%  
376 7% 46% Median
377 4% 39%  
378 2% 34%  
379 3% 32%  
380 2% 30%  
381 4% 28%  
382 0.9% 24%  
383 2% 23%  
384 5% 20%  
385 0.9% 15%  
386 2% 14%  
387 1.0% 12%  
388 2% 11%  
389 0.5% 9%  
390 0.3% 9%  
391 0.7% 8%  
392 2% 8%  
393 0.9% 6%  
394 1.1% 5%  
395 0.6% 4%  
396 0.5% 4%  
397 0.9% 3%  
398 0.2% 2%  
399 0.5% 2%  
400 0.1% 2%  
401 0.1% 1.4%  
402 0.4% 1.3%  
403 0.1% 0.9%  
404 0% 0.9%  
405 0.2% 0.8%  
406 0.1% 0.6%  
407 0.1% 0.5%  
408 0.1% 0.5%  
409 0.1% 0.4%  
410 0% 0.3%  
411 0.1% 0.3%  
412 0% 0.3%  
413 0% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.2%  
415 0.1% 0.2%  
416 0.1% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.8%  
325 0% 99.8%  
326 0% 99.8% Majority
327 0% 99.8%  
328 0.1% 99.8%  
329 0% 99.7%  
330 0% 99.7%  
331 0% 99.6%  
332 0.2% 99.6%  
333 0.1% 99.4%  
334 0.2% 99.3%  
335 0.1% 99.2%  
336 0.1% 99.0%  
337 0.1% 99.0%  
338 0.1% 98.9%  
339 0.2% 98.7%  
340 0.1% 98.6%  
341 0.4% 98%  
342 0.3% 98%  
343 0.2% 98%  
344 0.4% 98%  
345 0.2% 97%  
346 0.2% 97%  
347 0.7% 97%  
348 1.2% 96%  
349 1.3% 95%  
350 0.6% 93%  
351 0.5% 93%  
352 0.8% 92% Last Result
353 0.9% 92%  
354 2% 91%  
355 2% 89%  
356 0.8% 87%  
357 0.9% 87%  
358 2% 86%  
359 3% 84%  
360 4% 81%  
361 4% 76%  
362 3% 72%  
363 0.8% 69%  
364 3% 68%  
365 1.4% 65%  
366 4% 64%  
367 2% 60%  
368 5% 58%  
369 6% 53%  
370 2% 47%  
371 7% 45% Median
372 4% 38%  
373 4% 34%  
374 2% 30%  
375 1.1% 29%  
376 5% 28%  
377 0.9% 22%  
378 3% 22%  
379 6% 19%  
380 1.3% 13%  
381 1.5% 12%  
382 0.3% 10%  
383 2% 10%  
384 0.3% 8%  
385 0.7% 8%  
386 0.3% 7%  
387 1.1% 7%  
388 0.7% 6%  
389 2% 5%  
390 0.6% 4%  
391 0.6% 3%  
392 0.6% 2%  
393 0.1% 2%  
394 0.3% 2%  
395 0.1% 1.3%  
396 0.1% 1.2%  
397 0.3% 1.2%  
398 0.1% 0.9%  
399 0% 0.8%  
400 0.1% 0.8%  
401 0.2% 0.7%  
402 0.1% 0.5%  
403 0% 0.4%  
404 0.1% 0.4%  
405 0% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.3%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0.1% 0.1%  
411 0.1% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.8% Majority
327 0.1% 99.8%  
328 0.1% 99.7%  
329 0% 99.7% Last Result
330 0% 99.7%  
331 0.1% 99.6%  
332 0% 99.6%  
333 0% 99.6%  
334 0.3% 99.5%  
335 0% 99.3%  
336 0.2% 99.2%  
337 0% 99.1%  
338 1.0% 99.0%  
339 0.1% 98%  
340 0.1% 98%  
341 0.3% 98%  
342 0.3% 98%  
343 0.6% 97%  
344 0.3% 97%  
345 1.0% 96%  
346 2% 95%  
347 0.3% 94%  
348 2% 93%  
349 0.8% 92%  
350 1.0% 91%  
351 2% 90%  
352 4% 88%  
353 1.2% 84%  
354 2% 83%  
355 3% 81%  
356 6% 78%  
357 2% 72%  
358 2% 70%  
359 4% 68%  
360 1.0% 64%  
361 2% 63%  
362 2% 62%  
363 10% 60% Median
364 2% 50%  
365 7% 47%  
366 4% 41%  
367 7% 37%  
368 1.3% 30%  
369 2% 28%  
370 3% 26%  
371 2% 23%  
372 0.6% 20%  
373 2% 20%  
374 3% 18%  
375 0.9% 15%  
376 0.7% 14%  
377 4% 13%  
378 0.8% 9%  
379 0.8% 9%  
380 1.2% 8%  
381 0.7% 7%  
382 0.8% 6%  
383 0.4% 5%  
384 0.4% 5%  
385 0.7% 4%  
386 0.1% 4%  
387 1.1% 4%  
388 0.4% 3%  
389 0.7% 2%  
390 0.2% 1.4%  
391 0.1% 1.2%  
392 0.1% 1.1%  
393 0.1% 1.0%  
394 0.1% 0.8%  
395 0.1% 0.7%  
396 0.1% 0.7%  
397 0.1% 0.6%  
398 0.2% 0.5%  
399 0.1% 0.3%  
400 0% 0.3%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0% 99.7%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0% 99.7%  
300 0% 99.6%  
301 0.1% 99.6%  
302 0% 99.6%  
303 0% 99.5%  
304 0.1% 99.5%  
305 0.1% 99.4%  
306 0.1% 99.2%  
307 0.2% 99.2%  
308 0.3% 99.0%  
309 0.3% 98.6%  
310 0.2% 98%  
311 0.1% 98%  
312 0.6% 98%  
313 0.1% 97%  
314 0.5% 97%  
315 1.3% 97%  
316 0.8% 96%  
317 0.5% 95%  
318 0.6% 94%  
319 0.9% 94%  
320 1.0% 93%  
321 1.2% 92% Last Result
322 2% 91%  
323 0.4% 88%  
324 2% 88%  
325 5% 86%  
326 2% 81% Majority
327 1.0% 79%  
328 2% 78%  
329 5% 76%  
330 3% 71%  
331 2% 68%  
332 2% 66%  
333 4% 64%  
334 1.5% 60%  
335 3% 59%  
336 9% 56% Median
337 4% 47%  
338 2% 43%  
339 1.1% 41%  
340 5% 40%  
341 4% 35%  
342 7% 31%  
343 2% 25%  
344 2% 23%  
345 0.9% 21%  
346 4% 20%  
347 1.4% 16%  
348 1.0% 15%  
349 1.3% 14%  
350 2% 13%  
351 1.3% 10%  
352 0.5% 9%  
353 1.1% 9%  
354 0.6% 7%  
355 0.4% 7%  
356 0.6% 6%  
357 0.6% 6%  
358 1.0% 5%  
359 1.2% 4%  
360 0.1% 3%  
361 0.4% 3%  
362 0.3% 2%  
363 0.5% 2%  
364 0.3% 2%  
365 0.1% 1.4%  
366 0.1% 1.3%  
367 0.1% 1.2%  
368 0.2% 1.0%  
369 0.1% 0.8%  
370 0.2% 0.7%  
371 0.1% 0.5%  
372 0.1% 0.4%  
373 0% 0.4%  
374 0% 0.3%  
375 0% 0.3%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0% 99.6%  
296 0% 99.6%  
297 0% 99.6%  
298 0% 99.5%  
299 0.1% 99.5%  
300 0.2% 99.4%  
301 0% 99.2%  
302 0.2% 99.2%  
303 0.4% 99.0%  
304 0.4% 98.7%  
305 0.2% 98%  
306 0.1% 98%  
307 0.8% 98%  
308 0.3% 97%  
309 0.4% 97%  
310 0.5% 97%  
311 2% 96%  
312 0.3% 95%  
313 0.6% 94%  
314 0.9% 94%  
315 1.2% 93%  
316 0.7% 92%  
317 2% 91% Last Result
318 0.7% 88%  
319 1.3% 88%  
320 6% 86%  
321 2% 81%  
322 2% 79%  
323 1.2% 77%  
324 5% 76%  
325 3% 71%  
326 2% 67% Majority
327 2% 65%  
328 2% 63%  
329 3% 61%  
330 2% 58%  
331 7% 56% Median
332 5% 49%  
333 4% 43%  
334 1.1% 40%  
335 6% 38%  
336 2% 33%  
337 6% 30%  
338 2% 24%  
339 2% 22%  
340 1.1% 20%  
341 1.3% 19%  
342 4% 18%  
343 0.7% 14%  
344 2% 13%  
345 2% 11%  
346 0.7% 10%  
347 0.7% 9%  
348 1.2% 8%  
349 0.5% 7%  
350 0.8% 6%  
351 0.4% 6%  
352 0.6% 5%  
353 0.6% 5%  
354 1.3% 4%  
355 0.2% 3%  
356 0.4% 2%  
357 0.1% 2%  
358 0.5% 2%  
359 0.1% 1.4%  
360 0.2% 1.3%  
361 0.1% 1.1%  
362 0.1% 1.0%  
363 0.1% 0.9%  
364 0% 0.7%  
365 0.1% 0.7%  
366 0.1% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.5%  
368 0% 0.3%  
369 0% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.3%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0% 99.6%  
296 0% 99.6%  
297 0% 99.6%  
298 0% 99.5%  
299 0.1% 99.5%  
300 0.2% 99.4%  
301 0% 99.2%  
302 0.2% 99.2%  
303 0.4% 99.0%  
304 0.4% 98.7%  
305 0.2% 98%  
306 0.1% 98%  
307 0.8% 98%  
308 0.3% 97%  
309 0.4% 97%  
310 0.5% 97%  
311 2% 96%  
312 0.3% 95%  
313 0.6% 94%  
314 0.9% 94%  
315 1.2% 93%  
316 0.7% 92%  
317 2% 91% Last Result
318 0.7% 88%  
319 1.3% 88%  
320 6% 86%  
321 2% 81%  
322 2% 79%  
323 1.2% 77%  
324 5% 76%  
325 3% 71%  
326 2% 67% Majority
327 2% 65%  
328 2% 63%  
329 3% 61%  
330 2% 58%  
331 7% 56% Median
332 5% 49%  
333 4% 43%  
334 1.1% 40%  
335 6% 38%  
336 2% 33%  
337 6% 30%  
338 2% 24%  
339 2% 22%  
340 1.1% 20%  
341 1.3% 19%  
342 4% 18%  
343 0.7% 14%  
344 2% 13%  
345 2% 11%  
346 0.7% 10%  
347 0.7% 9%  
348 1.2% 8%  
349 0.5% 7%  
350 0.8% 6%  
351 0.4% 6%  
352 0.6% 5%  
353 0.6% 5%  
354 1.3% 4%  
355 0.2% 3%  
356 0.4% 2%  
357 0.1% 2%  
358 0.5% 2%  
359 0.1% 1.4%  
360 0.2% 1.3%  
361 0.1% 1.1%  
362 0.1% 1.0%  
363 0.1% 0.9%  
364 0% 0.7%  
365 0.1% 0.7%  
366 0.1% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.5%  
368 0% 0.3%  
369 0% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.3%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.8%  
263 0% 99.7%  
264 0% 99.7%  
265 0.1% 99.7%  
266 0.1% 99.5%  
267 0.1% 99.4%  
268 0% 99.3%  
269 0.1% 99.3%  
270 0.1% 99.1%  
271 0.1% 99.0%  
272 0.2% 98.9%  
273 0.1% 98.7%  
274 0.5% 98.6%  
275 0.1% 98%  
276 0.4% 98%  
277 0.2% 98%  
278 1.3% 97%  
279 0.6% 96%  
280 0.6% 95%  
281 0.4% 95%  
282 0.8% 94%  
283 0.5% 94%  
284 1.2% 93%  
285 0.7% 92%  
286 0.7% 91%  
287 2% 90%  
288 2% 89%  
289 0.7% 87%  
290 4% 86%  
291 1.3% 82%  
292 1.1% 81%  
293 2% 80%  
294 2% 78%  
295 6% 76%  
296 2% 70%  
297 6% 67%  
298 1.1% 62%  
299 4% 60%  
300 5% 57%  
301 7% 51%  
302 2% 44% Median
303 3% 42%  
304 2% 39%  
305 2% 37%  
306 2% 35%  
307 3% 33%  
308 5% 29%  
309 1.2% 24%  
310 2% 23%  
311 2% 21%  
312 6% 19%  
313 1.3% 14%  
314 0.7% 12% Last Result
315 2% 12%  
316 0.7% 9%  
317 1.2% 8%  
318 0.9% 7%  
319 0.6% 6%  
320 0.3% 6%  
321 2% 5%  
322 0.5% 4%  
323 0.4% 3%  
324 0.3% 3%  
325 0.8% 3%  
326 0.1% 2% Majority
327 0.2% 2%  
328 0.4% 2%  
329 0.4% 1.3%  
330 0.2% 1.0%  
331 0% 0.8%  
332 0.2% 0.8%  
333 0.1% 0.6%  
334 0% 0.5%  
335 0% 0.5%  
336 0% 0.4%  
337 0% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.7%  
263 0% 99.7%  
264 0.1% 99.7%  
265 0.1% 99.5%  
266 0.1% 99.4%  
267 0% 99.3%  
268 0.1% 99.3%  
269 0.1% 99.1%  
270 0.1% 99.0%  
271 0.2% 98.9%  
272 0.1% 98.7%  
273 0.5% 98.6%  
274 0.1% 98%  
275 0.4% 98%  
276 0.2% 98%  
277 1.3% 97%  
278 0.6% 96%  
279 0.6% 95%  
280 0.4% 95%  
281 0.8% 94%  
282 0.5% 94%  
283 1.2% 93%  
284 0.7% 92%  
285 0.7% 91%  
286 2% 90%  
287 2% 89%  
288 0.7% 87%  
289 4% 86%  
290 1.3% 82%  
291 1.1% 81%  
292 2% 80%  
293 2% 78%  
294 6% 76%  
295 2% 70%  
296 6% 67%  
297 1.1% 62%  
298 4% 60%  
299 5% 57%  
300 7% 51%  
301 2% 44% Median
302 3% 42%  
303 2% 39%  
304 2% 37%  
305 2% 35%  
306 3% 33%  
307 5% 29%  
308 1.2% 24%  
309 2% 23%  
310 2% 21%  
311 6% 19%  
312 1.3% 14%  
313 0.7% 12% Last Result
314 2% 12%  
315 0.7% 9%  
316 1.2% 8%  
317 0.9% 7%  
318 0.6% 6%  
319 0.3% 6%  
320 2% 5%  
321 0.5% 4%  
322 0.4% 3%  
323 0.3% 3%  
324 0.8% 3%  
325 0.1% 2%  
326 0.2% 2% Majority
327 0.4% 2%  
328 0.4% 1.3%  
329 0.2% 1.0%  
330 0% 0.8%  
331 0.2% 0.8%  
332 0.1% 0.6%  
333 0% 0.5%  
334 0% 0.5%  
335 0% 0.4%  
336 0% 0.4%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.8%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0% 99.8%  
257 0% 99.7%  
258 0% 99.7%  
259 0.1% 99.6%  
260 0.1% 99.6%  
261 0.2% 99.5%  
262 0.1% 99.3%  
263 0.2% 99.2%  
264 0.1% 99.0%  
265 0.1% 98.8%  
266 0.1% 98.7%  
267 0.3% 98.6%  
268 0.5% 98%  
269 0.3% 98%  
270 0.4% 98%  
271 0.1% 97%  
272 1.2% 97%  
273 1.0% 96%  
274 0.6% 95%  
275 0.6% 94%  
276 0.4% 94%  
277 0.6% 93%  
278 1.1% 93%  
279 0.5% 91%  
280 1.3% 91%  
281 2% 90%  
282 1.3% 87%  
283 1.0% 86%  
284 1.4% 85%  
285 4% 84%  
286 0.9% 80%  
287 2% 79%  
288 2% 77%  
289 7% 75%  
290 4% 69%  
291 5% 65%  
292 1.1% 60%  
293 2% 59%  
294 4% 57%  
295 9% 53%  
296 3% 44% Median
297 1.5% 41%  
298 4% 40%  
299 2% 36%  
300 2% 34%  
301 3% 32%  
302 5% 29%  
303 2% 24%  
304 1.0% 22%  
305 2% 21%  
306 5% 19%  
307 2% 14%  
308 0.4% 12%  
309 2% 12% Last Result
310 1.2% 9%  
311 1.0% 8%  
312 0.9% 7%  
313 0.6% 6%  
314 0.5% 6%  
315 0.8% 5%  
316 1.3% 4%  
317 0.5% 3%  
318 0.1% 3%  
319 0.6% 3%  
320 0.1% 2%  
321 0.2% 2%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.3% 1.4%  
324 0.2% 1.0%  
325 0.1% 0.8%  
326 0.1% 0.8% Majority
327 0.1% 0.6%  
328 0% 0.5%  
329 0% 0.5%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.4%  
332 0% 0.4%  
333 0.1% 0.3%  
334 0% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.8%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0.1% 99.7%  
233 0.2% 99.7%  
234 0.1% 99.5%  
235 0.1% 99.4%  
236 0.1% 99.3%  
237 0.1% 99.3%  
238 0.1% 99.2%  
239 0.1% 99.0%  
240 0.1% 98.9%  
241 0.2% 98.8%  
242 0.7% 98.6%  
243 0.4% 98%  
244 1.1% 97%  
245 0.1% 96%  
246 0.7% 96%  
247 0.4% 96%  
248 0.4% 95%  
249 0.8% 95%  
250 0.7% 94%  
251 1.2% 93%  
252 0.8% 92%  
253 0.8% 91%  
254 4% 91%  
255 0.7% 87%  
256 0.9% 86%  
257 3% 85%  
258 2% 82%  
259 0.6% 80%  
260 2% 80%  
261 3% 77%  
262 2% 74%  
263 1.3% 72%  
264 7% 70%  
265 4% 63%  
266 7% 59%  
267 2% 53%  
268 10% 50%  
269 2% 40% Median
270 2% 38%  
271 1.0% 37%  
272 4% 36%  
273 2% 32%  
274 2% 30%  
275 6% 28%  
276 3% 22%  
277 2% 19%  
278 1.2% 17%  
279 4% 16%  
280 2% 12%  
281 1.0% 10%  
282 0.8% 9%  
283 2% 8%  
284 0.3% 7%  
285 2% 6%  
286 1.0% 5%  
287 0.3% 4%  
288 0.6% 3%  
289 0.3% 3%  
290 0.3% 2%  
291 0.1% 2%  
292 0.1% 2%  
293 1.0% 2%  
294 0% 1.0%  
295 0.2% 0.9%  
296 0% 0.8%  
297 0.3% 0.7%  
298 0% 0.5%  
299 0% 0.4%  
300 0.1% 0.4%  
301 0% 0.4% Last Result
302 0% 0.3%  
303 0.1% 0.3%  
304 0.1% 0.3%  
305 0.1% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0.1% 100%  
221 0.1% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0% 99.7%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0% 99.6%  
229 0.1% 99.6%  
230 0.2% 99.5%  
231 0.1% 99.3%  
232 0% 99.2%  
233 0.1% 99.2%  
234 0.3% 99.1%  
235 0.1% 98.8%  
236 0.1% 98.8%  
237 0.3% 98.7%  
238 0.1% 98%  
239 0.6% 98%  
240 0.6% 98%  
241 0.6% 97%  
242 2% 96%  
243 0.7% 95%  
244 1.1% 94%  
245 0.3% 93%  
246 0.7% 93%  
247 0.3% 92%  
248 2% 92%  
249 0.3% 90%  
250 1.5% 90%  
251 1.3% 88%  
252 6% 87%  
253 3% 81%  
254 0.9% 78%  
255 5% 78%  
256 1.1% 72%  
257 2% 71%  
258 4% 70%  
259 4% 66%  
260 7% 62%  
261 2% 55% Median
262 6% 53%  
263 5% 47%  
264 2% 42%  
265 4% 40%  
266 1.4% 36%  
267 3% 35%  
268 0.8% 32%  
269 3% 31%  
270 4% 28%  
271 4% 24%  
272 3% 19%  
273 2% 16%  
274 0.9% 14%  
275 0.8% 13%  
276 2% 13%  
277 2% 11%  
278 0.9% 9% Last Result
279 0.8% 8%  
280 0.5% 8%  
281 0.6% 7%  
282 1.3% 7%  
283 1.2% 5%  
284 0.7% 4%  
285 0.2% 3%  
286 0.2% 3%  
287 0.4% 3%  
288 0.2% 2%  
289 0.3% 2%  
290 0.4% 2%  
291 0.1% 2%  
292 0.2% 1.4%  
293 0.1% 1.3%  
294 0.1% 1.1%  
295 0.1% 1.0%  
296 0.1% 1.0%  
297 0.2% 0.8%  
298 0.1% 0.7%  
299 0.2% 0.6%  
300 0% 0.4%  
301 0% 0.4%  
302 0% 0.3%  
303 0.1% 0.3%  
304 0% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.2%  
308 0% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0.1% 100%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.8%  
223 0% 99.8%  
224 0.1% 99.8%  
225 0% 99.7%  
226 0% 99.7%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0% 99.6%  
229 0.2% 99.6%  
230 0.1% 99.4%  
231 0.1% 99.3%  
232 0.1% 99.2%  
233 0.3% 99.1%  
234 0.1% 98.8%  
235 0.3% 98.7%  
236 0.1% 98%  
237 0.3% 98%  
238 0.6% 98%  
239 1.4% 97%  
240 0.1% 96%  
241 1.0% 96%  
242 0.2% 95%  
243 0.9% 95%  
244 0.7% 94%  
245 0.3% 93%  
246 0.7% 93%  
247 1.2% 92%  
248 0.8% 91%  
249 0.7% 90%  
250 5% 89%  
251 2% 85%  
252 2% 83%  
253 2% 81%  
254 1.5% 79%  
255 1.2% 77%  
256 3% 76%  
257 2% 73%  
258 2% 72%  
259 8% 69%  
260 2% 61%  
261 8% 59%  
262 1.1% 51%  
263 7% 50%  
264 3% 42% Median
265 3% 39%  
266 0.6% 36%  
267 4% 36%  
268 2% 31%  
269 2% 29%  
270 3% 27%  
271 5% 24%  
272 2% 19%  
273 1.0% 17%  
274 4% 16%  
275 2% 11%  
276 0.6% 10%  
277 0.8% 9%  
278 2% 8%  
279 0.8% 7%  
280 0.6% 6%  
281 2% 5%  
282 0.4% 4%  
283 0.7% 3%  
284 0.2% 3%  
285 0.2% 2%  
286 0.1% 2%  
287 0% 2%  
288 1.0% 2%  
289 0.2% 1.0%  
290 0.1% 0.9%  
291 0.1% 0.8%  
292 0.2% 0.7%  
293 0% 0.5%  
294 0% 0.4%  
295 0% 0.4%  
296 0% 0.4%  
297 0% 0.3% Last Result
298 0% 0.3%  
299 0% 0.3%  
300 0.1% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
215 0.1% 100%  
216 0.1% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.8%  
218 0% 99.8%  
219 0% 99.8%  
220 0.1% 99.7%  
221 0% 99.7%  
222 0.1% 99.7%  
223 0.1% 99.6%  
224 0.1% 99.5%  
225 0.1% 99.5%  
226 0.2% 99.4%  
227 0% 99.2%  
228 0.1% 99.1%  
229 0.4% 99.1%  
230 0.1% 98.7%  
231 0.1% 98.6%  
232 0.5% 98%  
233 0.2% 98%  
234 0.9% 98%  
235 0.5% 97%  
236 0.6% 96%  
237 1.1% 96%  
238 0.9% 95%  
239 2% 94%  
240 0.7% 92%  
241 0.3% 92%  
242 0.5% 91%  
243 2% 91%  
244 1.0% 89%  
245 2% 88%  
246 0.9% 86%  
247 5% 85%  
248 2% 80%  
249 0.9% 77%  
250 4% 76%  
251 2% 72%  
252 3% 70%  
253 2% 68%  
254 4% 66%  
255 7% 61%  
256 0.7% 54% Median
257 5% 54%  
258 3% 48%  
259 6% 45%  
260 3% 39%  
261 1.4% 36%  
262 4% 35%  
263 1.1% 31%  
264 2% 30%  
265 2% 28%  
266 8% 26%  
267 3% 19%  
268 2% 16%  
269 1.5% 14%  
270 0.9% 13%  
271 2% 12%  
272 0.7% 10%  
273 0.6% 9%  
274 1.1% 9% Last Result
275 0.7% 8%  
276 0.5% 7%  
277 0.6% 6%  
278 2% 6%  
279 0.5% 4%  
280 0.3% 3%  
281 0.3% 3%  
282 0.3% 3%  
283 0.4% 2%  
284 0.2% 2%  
285 0.4% 2%  
286 0.1% 2%  
287 0.2% 1.4%  
288 0% 1.3%  
289 0.3% 1.2%  
290 0.1% 1.0%  
291 0.1% 0.9%  
292 0.1% 0.8%  
293 0.1% 0.7%  
294 0.3% 0.6%  
295 0% 0.4%  
296 0% 0.3%  
297 0.1% 0.3%  
298 0% 0.3%  
299 0.1% 0.3%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
191 0.1% 100%  
192 0% 99.8%  
193 0% 99.8%  
194 0.1% 99.8%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0% 99.7%  
197 0% 99.6%  
198 0.1% 99.6%  
199 0.1% 99.5%  
200 0.1% 99.4%  
201 0% 99.3%  
202 0.1% 99.2%  
203 0.1% 99.1%  
204 0.1% 99.0%  
205 0.3% 99.0%  
206 0.1% 98.7%  
207 0.7% 98.6%  
208 0.2% 98%  
209 0.7% 98%  
210 1.3% 97%  
211 2% 96%  
212 0.9% 93%  
213 0.5% 93%  
214 0.4% 92%  
215 0.2% 92%  
216 0.7% 91%  
217 1.4% 91%  
218 0.4% 89%  
219 0.3% 89%  
220 1.3% 89%  
221 3% 87%  
222 7% 85%  
223 1.3% 77%  
224 2% 76%  
225 5% 74%  
226 2% 69%  
227 11% 67%  
228 9% 56%  
229 3% 47% Median
230 2% 44%  
231 1.3% 42%  
232 2% 40%  
233 2% 38%  
234 4% 36%  
235 1.3% 31%  
236 2% 30%  
237 4% 28%  
238 4% 25%  
239 5% 21%  
240 2% 16%  
241 2% 14%  
242 1.2% 12%  
243 1.0% 11%  
244 0.9% 10%  
245 0.9% 9%  
246 0.6% 8%  
247 1.4% 7%  
248 0.5% 6%  
249 2% 5%  
250 0.3% 4%  
251 0.2% 3%  
252 0.6% 3%  
253 0.3% 2%  
254 0% 2%  
255 0.3% 2%  
256 0.1% 2%  
257 0.2% 2%  
258 0.3% 1.4%  
259 0.1% 1.1%  
260 0.1% 1.0%  
261 0.2% 0.9%  
262 0.2% 0.7%  
263 0.1% 0.6%  
264 0.1% 0.5%  
265 0% 0.4%  
266 0% 0.4% Last Result
267 0.1% 0.3%  
268 0% 0.2%  
269 0% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
184 0% 100%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0.1% 99.9%  
187 0% 99.8%  
188 0% 99.8%  
189 0.1% 99.8%  
190 0.1% 99.7%  
191 0% 99.6%  
192 0.1% 99.6%  
193 0.1% 99.5%  
194 0% 99.4%  
195 0.2% 99.4%  
196 0.1% 99.2%  
197 0.1% 99.2%  
198 0.1% 99.1%  
199 0.2% 99.0%  
200 0.3% 98.8%  
201 0.1% 98.5%  
202 0.8% 98%  
203 0.8% 98%  
204 0.7% 97%  
205 0.8% 96%  
206 2% 95%  
207 1.1% 93%  
208 0.6% 92%  
209 0.6% 92%  
210 0.5% 91%  
211 0.5% 91%  
212 1.0% 90%  
213 2% 89%  
214 1.0% 87%  
215 0.8% 86%  
216 3% 85%  
217 6% 82%  
218 2% 76%  
219 3% 75%  
220 4% 72%  
221 4% 68%  
222 7% 65%  
223 8% 58%  
224 5% 50% Median
225 3% 45%  
226 2% 42%  
227 3% 41%  
228 3% 38%  
229 3% 35%  
230 2% 32%  
231 2% 30%  
232 2% 28%  
233 5% 26%  
234 5% 21%  
235 1.4% 16%  
236 2% 14%  
237 2% 12%  
238 0.5% 10%  
239 1.2% 9%  
240 0.5% 8%  
241 0.8% 8%  
242 0.7% 7%  
243 1.3% 6%  
244 1.3% 5%  
245 0.5% 4%  
246 0.3% 3%  
247 0.6% 3%  
248 0.1% 2%  
249 0.1% 2%  
250 0.4% 2%  
251 0.1% 2%  
252 0.2% 2%  
253 0.2% 1.4%  
254 0.2% 1.1%  
255 0.1% 0.9%  
256 0.1% 0.8%  
257 0.2% 0.7%  
258 0% 0.5%  
259 0.1% 0.5%  
260 0% 0.4%  
261 0% 0.4%  
262 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.2%  
266 0% 0.2%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations