Opinion Poll by BMG Research for The Independent, 26–27 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 39.1% 37.6–40.6% 37.1–41.1% 36.8–41.5% 36.0–42.2%
Labour Party 41.0% 33.1% 31.6–34.6% 31.2–35.0% 30.8–35.4% 30.2–36.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 13.0% 12.0–14.2% 11.8–14.5% 11.5–14.8% 11.0–15.3%
Green Party 1.7% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.4%
Brexit Party 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.4%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.8%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.8%
Change UK 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 316 302–332 296–340 289–341 275–355
Labour Party 262 229 214–239 208–246 206–254 195–265
Liberal Democrats 12 33 32–37 31–40 30–41 29–43
Green Party 1 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Scottish National Party 35 50 48–53 45–53 42–53 40–54
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 1 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.8%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0% 99.7%  
271 0% 99.6%  
272 0% 99.6%  
273 0% 99.6%  
274 0% 99.6%  
275 0% 99.5%  
276 0% 99.5%  
277 0.1% 99.4%  
278 0.1% 99.3%  
279 0% 99.2%  
280 0% 99.2%  
281 0.3% 99.1%  
282 0.2% 98.8%  
283 0.1% 98.6%  
284 0% 98.6%  
285 0.1% 98.5%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.5% 98%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.2% 97%  
291 0.6% 97%  
292 0.1% 97%  
293 0.3% 96%  
294 0.1% 96%  
295 0.4% 96%  
296 1.3% 96%  
297 0.2% 94%  
298 0.5% 94%  
299 2% 94%  
300 0.2% 92%  
301 2% 92%  
302 2% 90%  
303 1.0% 88%  
304 0.5% 87%  
305 0.8% 87%  
306 2% 86%  
307 4% 84%  
308 8% 80%  
309 0.8% 72%  
310 0.6% 71%  
311 7% 70%  
312 2% 63%  
313 4% 61%  
314 0.4% 57%  
315 3% 57%  
316 4% 53% Median
317 1.3% 50% Last Result
318 6% 48%  
319 8% 42%  
320 1.2% 35%  
321 0.8% 33%  
322 2% 33%  
323 8% 30%  
324 1.3% 22%  
325 1.2% 21%  
326 1.2% 20% Majority
327 0.3% 18%  
328 0.7% 18%  
329 0.7% 17%  
330 5% 17%  
331 1.0% 12%  
332 2% 11%  
333 0.9% 8%  
334 0.3% 7%  
335 0.4% 7%  
336 0.3% 7%  
337 0.6% 6%  
338 0.7% 6%  
339 0.2% 5%  
340 2% 5%  
341 0.5% 3%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 0% 2%  
344 0.2% 2%  
345 0.4% 2%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.1% 1.1%  
348 0.1% 1.1%  
349 0.1% 1.0%  
350 0.1% 0.8%  
351 0% 0.8%  
352 0.1% 0.7%  
353 0.1% 0.7%  
354 0.1% 0.6%  
355 0.3% 0.5%  
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
187 0% 100%  
188 0.1% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.8%  
193 0% 99.8%  
194 0% 99.8%  
195 0.3% 99.8%  
196 0.1% 99.4%  
197 0.1% 99.3%  
198 0.1% 99.3%  
199 0.1% 99.2%  
200 0% 99.1%  
201 0.2% 99.1%  
202 0.1% 98.9%  
203 0.3% 98.8%  
204 0.2% 98.5%  
205 0.2% 98%  
206 0.8% 98%  
207 2% 97%  
208 1.4% 96%  
209 0.8% 94%  
210 0.1% 94%  
211 0.1% 94%  
212 0.1% 93%  
213 0.8% 93%  
214 5% 92%  
215 0.5% 88%  
216 1.5% 87%  
217 2% 86%  
218 3% 84%  
219 0.3% 81%  
220 0.1% 80%  
221 0.1% 80%  
222 1.2% 80%  
223 2% 79%  
224 17% 77%  
225 1.5% 60%  
226 0.4% 59%  
227 3% 58%  
228 1.0% 56%  
229 5% 55% Median
230 9% 49%  
231 3% 40%  
232 2% 38%  
233 1.5% 36%  
234 5% 35%  
235 1.2% 29%  
236 13% 28%  
237 2% 15%  
238 2% 14%  
239 3% 11%  
240 0.3% 8%  
241 0.3% 8%  
242 0.3% 8%  
243 0.4% 8%  
244 0.3% 7%  
245 2% 7%  
246 0.7% 5%  
247 1.3% 5%  
248 0.1% 3%  
249 0% 3%  
250 0.1% 3%  
251 0.2% 3%  
252 0.1% 3%  
253 0.2% 3%  
254 0.3% 3%  
255 0.6% 2%  
256 0.1% 2%  
257 0% 2%  
258 0.4% 2%  
259 0.2% 1.2%  
260 0.2% 1.0%  
261 0.1% 0.8%  
262 0.1% 0.8% Last Result
263 0% 0.7%  
264 0.1% 0.7%  
265 0.2% 0.6%  
266 0% 0.5%  
267 0% 0.4%  
268 0% 0.4%  
269 0% 0.4%  
270 0.1% 0.4%  
271 0.1% 0.3%  
272 0% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 2% 99.4%  
31 7% 97%  
32 14% 90%  
33 34% 76% Median
34 0.4% 43%  
35 15% 42%  
36 12% 27%  
37 6% 15%  
38 3% 9%  
39 1.3% 6%  
40 2% 5%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.2% 1.0%  
43 0.4% 0.7%  
44 0.1% 0.4%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 16% 100% Last Result
2 78% 84% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0.2% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9% Last Result
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.8%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 0.2% 99.6%  
41 1.4% 99.4%  
42 0.7% 98%  
43 0.6% 97%  
44 0% 97%  
45 2% 97%  
46 0.2% 94%  
47 4% 94%  
48 10% 90%  
49 0% 81%  
50 44% 81% Median
51 23% 37%  
52 0.2% 13%  
53 12% 13%  
54 0.8% 0.8%  
55 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100%  
1 9% 51% Median
2 1.5% 42%  
3 36% 41%  
4 5% 5% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 368 99.6% 355–382 348–390 340–392 327–403
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 367 99.5% 354–381 346–387 339–391 325–403
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 351 97% 338–365 332–372 324–373 312–386
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 351 97% 338–365 332–372 324–373 312–386
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 314 316 16% 300–330 292–336 291–343 277–357
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 318 22% 302–333 297–340 290–343 276–355
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 316 20% 302–332 296–340 289–341 275–355
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 316 20% 302–332 296–340 289–341 275–355
Conservative Party 317 316 20% 302–332 296–340 289–341 275–355
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 314 13% 299–328 291–334 289–341 276–354
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 312 13% 298–328 290–333 287–340 275–354
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 280 0.1% 265–292 258–298 257–306 244–318
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 279 0.1% 265–291 258–297 254–305 243–316
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 263 0% 249–276 243–284 240–291 227–305
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 262 0% 248–275 241–282 238–290 227–303
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 262 0% 248–275 241–282 238–290 227–303
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 230 0% 214–240 210–248 207–256 195–266
Labour Party – Change UK 262 229 0% 214–239 208–246 206–254 195–265
Labour Party 262 229 0% 214–239 208–246 206–254 195–265

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.8%  
321 0% 99.8%  
322 0.1% 99.7%  
323 0% 99.7%  
324 0.1% 99.7%  
325 0% 99.6%  
326 0% 99.6% Majority
327 0.1% 99.5%  
328 0% 99.4%  
329 0.1% 99.4%  
330 0% 99.3%  
331 0% 99.3%  
332 0.1% 99.3%  
333 0.1% 99.2%  
334 0% 99.1%  
335 0.5% 99.0%  
336 0.2% 98.5%  
337 0.2% 98%  
338 0.1% 98%  
339 0.2% 98%  
340 0.5% 98%  
341 0.2% 97%  
342 0.1% 97%  
343 0.1% 97%  
344 0.6% 97%  
345 0.1% 96%  
346 0.2% 96%  
347 1.0% 96%  
348 0.2% 95%  
349 0.4% 95%  
350 2% 95%  
351 0.1% 93%  
352 0.8% 92%  
353 0.4% 92%  
354 0.6% 91%  
355 3% 91%  
356 1.0% 88% Last Result
357 2% 87%  
358 3% 85%  
359 0.8% 82%  
360 2% 81%  
361 12% 79%  
362 2% 67%  
363 0.7% 65%  
364 5% 64%  
365 4% 59%  
366 0.8% 55%  
367 0.6% 54% Median
368 7% 54%  
369 7% 47%  
370 3% 40%  
371 1.0% 37%  
372 0.8% 36%  
373 12% 36%  
374 1.0% 24%  
375 2% 23%  
376 2% 21%  
377 1.2% 19%  
378 0.7% 18%  
379 0.5% 17%  
380 1.5% 17%  
381 5% 15%  
382 0.5% 10%  
383 2% 10%  
384 1.1% 8%  
385 0.4% 7%  
386 0.5% 7%  
387 0.7% 6%  
388 0.2% 5%  
389 0.2% 5%  
390 1.2% 5%  
391 1.2% 4%  
392 0.7% 3%  
393 0.3% 2%  
394 0.1% 2%  
395 0.3% 2%  
396 0.3% 1.2%  
397 0% 0.9%  
398 0% 0.9%  
399 0% 0.9%  
400 0% 0.9%  
401 0.1% 0.8%  
402 0.1% 0.7%  
403 0.3% 0.6%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0.1% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.8%  
320 0% 99.7%  
321 0% 99.7%  
322 0.1% 99.7%  
323 0% 99.6%  
324 0% 99.6%  
325 0% 99.5%  
326 0% 99.5% Majority
327 0% 99.4%  
328 0.1% 99.4%  
329 0.1% 99.3%  
330 0% 99.2%  
331 0% 99.2%  
332 0.2% 99.1%  
333 0.1% 98.9%  
334 0.5% 98.8%  
335 0.1% 98%  
336 0.1% 98%  
337 0.2% 98%  
338 0.2% 98%  
339 0.4% 98%  
340 0% 97%  
341 0.3% 97%  
342 0.2% 97%  
343 0.1% 97%  
344 0.6% 97%  
345 0.1% 96%  
346 1.5% 96%  
347 1.3% 94%  
348 0.2% 93%  
349 0.6% 93%  
350 0.7% 92%  
351 0.5% 92%  
352 0.2% 91% Last Result
353 0.9% 91%  
354 2% 90%  
355 3% 88%  
356 2% 85%  
357 1.3% 83%  
358 8% 82%  
359 1.5% 74%  
360 2% 72%  
361 9% 70%  
362 3% 61%  
363 0.5% 58%  
364 1.2% 57%  
365 2% 56%  
366 4% 54% Median
367 2% 50%  
368 7% 49%  
369 5% 42%  
370 4% 37%  
371 0.7% 32%  
372 1.3% 32%  
373 9% 31%  
374 2% 22%  
375 2% 20%  
376 1.5% 19%  
377 1.4% 17%  
378 0.5% 16%  
379 0.6% 15%  
380 0.3% 15%  
381 5% 14%  
382 0.5% 9%  
383 1.5% 9%  
384 1.1% 7%  
385 0.2% 6%  
386 0.6% 6%  
387 0.8% 5%  
388 0.3% 5%  
389 0.6% 4%  
390 0.7% 4%  
391 1.1% 3%  
392 0.2% 2%  
393 0.5% 2%  
394 0% 1.1%  
395 0.1% 1.1%  
396 0% 0.9%  
397 0.1% 0.9%  
398 0% 0.8%  
399 0.1% 0.8%  
400 0% 0.7%  
401 0.1% 0.7%  
402 0% 0.6%  
403 0.3% 0.5%  
404 0% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0.1% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0% 99.7%  
309 0% 99.6%  
310 0.1% 99.6%  
311 0% 99.6%  
312 0% 99.5%  
313 0.1% 99.5%  
314 0% 99.4%  
315 0.1% 99.4%  
316 0% 99.2%  
317 0.3% 99.2%  
318 0.2% 98.9%  
319 0% 98.7%  
320 0% 98.7%  
321 0.2% 98.7%  
322 0.2% 98.6%  
323 0.7% 98%  
324 0.3% 98%  
325 0.2% 97%  
326 0.2% 97% Majority
327 0.1% 97%  
328 0.1% 97%  
329 0.2% 97% Last Result
330 0.2% 96%  
331 0.5% 96%  
332 1.0% 96%  
333 0.1% 95%  
334 1.5% 95%  
335 0.9% 93%  
336 0.5% 92%  
337 2% 92%  
338 0.8% 90%  
339 1.3% 89%  
340 1.0% 88%  
341 6% 87%  
342 2% 81%  
343 6% 78%  
344 4% 72%  
345 0.5% 68%  
346 7% 68%  
347 3% 61%  
348 0.9% 57%  
349 0.7% 57% Median
350 4% 56%  
351 9% 52%  
352 5% 42%  
353 4% 37%  
354 1.1% 34%  
355 2% 33%  
356 8% 31%  
357 1.0% 23%  
358 1.0% 22%  
359 2% 21%  
360 0.2% 19%  
361 0.7% 18%  
362 1.3% 18%  
363 1.0% 16%  
364 2% 15%  
365 6% 14%  
366 0.6% 8%  
367 0.1% 7%  
368 0.4% 7%  
369 0.3% 7%  
370 0.5% 7%  
371 0.8% 6%  
372 1.3% 5%  
373 2% 4%  
374 0.2% 2%  
375 0.1% 2%  
376 0.2% 2%  
377 0.1% 2%  
378 0.6% 2%  
379 0.2% 1.2%  
380 0.1% 1.0%  
381 0.1% 1.0%  
382 0.1% 0.9%  
383 0% 0.8%  
384 0.1% 0.8%  
385 0.1% 0.7%  
386 0.1% 0.6%  
387 0.3% 0.5%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0% 99.7%  
309 0% 99.6%  
310 0.1% 99.6%  
311 0% 99.6%  
312 0% 99.5%  
313 0.1% 99.5%  
314 0% 99.4%  
315 0.1% 99.4%  
316 0% 99.2%  
317 0.3% 99.2%  
318 0.2% 98.9%  
319 0% 98.7%  
320 0% 98.7%  
321 0.2% 98.7%  
322 0.2% 98.6%  
323 0.7% 98%  
324 0.3% 98%  
325 0.2% 97%  
326 0.2% 97% Majority
327 0.1% 97%  
328 0.1% 97%  
329 0.2% 97% Last Result
330 0.2% 96%  
331 0.5% 96%  
332 1.0% 96%  
333 0.1% 95%  
334 1.5% 95%  
335 0.9% 93%  
336 0.5% 92%  
337 2% 92%  
338 0.8% 90%  
339 1.3% 89%  
340 1.0% 88%  
341 6% 87%  
342 2% 81%  
343 6% 78%  
344 4% 72%  
345 0.5% 68%  
346 7% 68%  
347 3% 61%  
348 0.9% 57%  
349 0.7% 57% Median
350 4% 56%  
351 9% 52%  
352 5% 42%  
353 4% 37%  
354 1.1% 34%  
355 2% 33%  
356 8% 31%  
357 1.0% 23%  
358 1.0% 22%  
359 2% 21%  
360 0.2% 19%  
361 0.7% 18%  
362 1.3% 18%  
363 1.0% 16%  
364 2% 15%  
365 6% 14%  
366 0.6% 8%  
367 0.1% 7%  
368 0.4% 7%  
369 0.3% 7%  
370 0.5% 7%  
371 0.8% 6%  
372 1.3% 5%  
373 2% 4%  
374 0.2% 2%  
375 0.1% 2%  
376 0.2% 2%  
377 0.1% 2%  
378 0.6% 2%  
379 0.2% 1.2%  
380 0.1% 1.0%  
381 0.1% 1.0%  
382 0.1% 0.9%  
383 0% 0.8%  
384 0.1% 0.8%  
385 0.1% 0.7%  
386 0.1% 0.6%  
387 0.3% 0.5%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0.1% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0.3% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.5%  
279 0.1% 99.4%  
280 0.1% 99.3%  
281 0% 99.3%  
282 0.1% 99.2%  
283 0.1% 99.2%  
284 0.1% 99.0%  
285 0.1% 98.9%  
286 0.4% 98.9%  
287 0.4% 98%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 0% 98%  
290 0.3% 98%  
291 0.5% 98%  
292 2% 97%  
293 0.2% 95%  
294 0.7% 95%  
295 0.6% 94%  
296 0.3% 94%  
297 0.4% 93%  
298 0.3% 93%  
299 0.9% 93%  
300 2% 92%  
301 1.0% 89%  
302 5% 88%  
303 0.7% 83%  
304 0.7% 83%  
305 0.3% 82%  
306 1.2% 82%  
307 1.2% 80%  
308 1.3% 79%  
309 8% 78%  
310 2% 70%  
311 0.8% 67%  
312 1.2% 67%  
313 8% 65%  
314 6% 58% Last Result
315 1.3% 52% Median
316 4% 50%  
317 3% 47%  
318 0.4% 43%  
319 4% 43%  
320 2% 39%  
321 7% 37%  
322 0.6% 30%  
323 0.8% 29%  
324 8% 28%  
325 4% 20%  
326 2% 16% Majority
327 0.8% 14%  
328 0.5% 13%  
329 1.0% 13%  
330 2% 12%  
331 2% 10%  
332 0.2% 8%  
333 2% 8%  
334 0.5% 6%  
335 0.2% 6%  
336 1.3% 6%  
337 0.4% 4%  
338 0.1% 4%  
339 0.3% 4%  
340 0.1% 4%  
341 0.6% 3%  
342 0.2% 3%  
343 0.2% 3%  
344 0.5% 2%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.2% 2%  
347 0.1% 2%  
348 0% 1.5%  
349 0.1% 1.4%  
350 0.2% 1.4%  
351 0.3% 1.2%  
352 0% 0.9%  
353 0% 0.8%  
354 0.1% 0.8%  
355 0.1% 0.7%  
356 0% 0.6%  
357 0% 0.5%  
358 0% 0.5%  
359 0% 0.4%  
360 0% 0.4%  
361 0% 0.4%  
362 0% 0.4%  
363 0.1% 0.3%  
364 0% 0.3%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.7%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0% 99.7%  
273 0% 99.6%  
274 0% 99.6%  
275 0% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0% 99.4%  
278 0.1% 99.4%  
279 0% 99.4%  
280 0% 99.3%  
281 0.1% 99.3%  
282 0.2% 99.2%  
283 0.1% 98.9%  
284 0.2% 98.8%  
285 0.1% 98.7%  
286 0% 98.5%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 0.6% 98%  
290 0.2% 98%  
291 0.4% 97%  
292 0.2% 97%  
293 0.3% 97%  
294 0.1% 96%  
295 0.1% 96%  
296 0.3% 96%  
297 1.1% 96%  
298 0.3% 95%  
299 0.7% 95%  
300 0.2% 94%  
301 0.5% 94%  
302 4% 93%  
303 1.0% 89%  
304 1.1% 88%  
305 0.7% 87%  
306 0.4% 87%  
307 3% 86%  
308 1.1% 83%  
309 1.3% 82%  
310 2% 81%  
311 11% 79%  
312 0.9% 69%  
313 4% 68%  
314 5% 64%  
315 5% 59%  
316 0.2% 54%  
317 0.6% 54% Median
318 6% 53%  
319 8% 47%  
320 2% 40%  
321 0.6% 38% Last Result
322 5% 37%  
323 9% 33%  
324 1.1% 24%  
325 1.3% 23%  
326 2% 22% Majority
327 0.6% 20%  
328 0.5% 19%  
329 0.7% 19%  
330 4% 18%  
331 1.0% 13%  
332 2% 12%  
333 1.1% 10%  
334 0.8% 9%  
335 0.9% 8%  
336 0.4% 7%  
337 0.2% 7%  
338 0.2% 7%  
339 0.2% 6%  
340 2% 6%  
341 0.9% 4%  
342 0.3% 3%  
343 0.7% 3%  
344 0.3% 2%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.1% 2%  
348 0.4% 2%  
349 0.2% 1.1%  
350 0.1% 1.0%  
351 0.1% 0.9%  
352 0% 0.8%  
353 0% 0.8%  
354 0.1% 0.7%  
355 0.3% 0.6%  
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.8%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0% 99.7%  
271 0% 99.6%  
272 0% 99.6%  
273 0% 99.6%  
274 0% 99.6%  
275 0% 99.5%  
276 0% 99.5%  
277 0.1% 99.4%  
278 0.1% 99.3%  
279 0% 99.2%  
280 0% 99.2%  
281 0.3% 99.1%  
282 0.2% 98.8%  
283 0.1% 98.6%  
284 0% 98.6%  
285 0.1% 98.5%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.5% 98%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.2% 97%  
291 0.6% 97%  
292 0.1% 97%  
293 0.3% 96%  
294 0.1% 96%  
295 0.4% 96%  
296 1.3% 96%  
297 0.2% 94%  
298 0.5% 94%  
299 2% 94%  
300 0.2% 92%  
301 2% 92%  
302 2% 90%  
303 1.0% 88%  
304 0.5% 87%  
305 0.8% 87%  
306 2% 86%  
307 4% 84%  
308 8% 80%  
309 0.8% 72%  
310 0.6% 71%  
311 7% 70%  
312 2% 63%  
313 4% 61%  
314 0.4% 57%  
315 3% 57%  
316 4% 53% Median
317 1.3% 50% Last Result
318 6% 48%  
319 8% 42%  
320 1.2% 35%  
321 0.8% 33%  
322 2% 33%  
323 8% 30%  
324 1.3% 22%  
325 1.2% 21%  
326 1.2% 20% Majority
327 0.3% 18%  
328 0.7% 18%  
329 0.7% 17%  
330 5% 17%  
331 1.0% 12%  
332 2% 11%  
333 0.9% 8%  
334 0.3% 7%  
335 0.4% 7%  
336 0.3% 7%  
337 0.6% 6%  
338 0.7% 6%  
339 0.2% 5%  
340 2% 5%  
341 0.5% 3%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 0% 2%  
344 0.2% 2%  
345 0.4% 2%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.1% 1.1%  
348 0.1% 1.1%  
349 0.1% 1.0%  
350 0.1% 0.8%  
351 0% 0.8%  
352 0.1% 0.7%  
353 0.1% 0.7%  
354 0.1% 0.6%  
355 0.3% 0.5%  
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.8%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0% 99.7%  
271 0% 99.6%  
272 0% 99.6%  
273 0% 99.6%  
274 0% 99.6%  
275 0% 99.5%  
276 0% 99.5%  
277 0.1% 99.4%  
278 0.1% 99.3%  
279 0% 99.2%  
280 0% 99.2%  
281 0.3% 99.1%  
282 0.2% 98.8%  
283 0.1% 98.6%  
284 0% 98.6%  
285 0.1% 98.5%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.5% 98%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.2% 97%  
291 0.6% 97%  
292 0.1% 97%  
293 0.3% 96%  
294 0.1% 96%  
295 0.4% 96%  
296 1.3% 96%  
297 0.2% 94%  
298 0.5% 94%  
299 2% 94%  
300 0.2% 92%  
301 2% 92%  
302 2% 90%  
303 1.0% 88%  
304 0.5% 87%  
305 0.8% 87%  
306 2% 86%  
307 4% 84%  
308 8% 80%  
309 0.8% 72%  
310 0.6% 71%  
311 7% 70%  
312 2% 63%  
313 4% 61%  
314 0.4% 57%  
315 3% 57%  
316 4% 53% Median
317 1.3% 50% Last Result
318 6% 48%  
319 8% 42%  
320 1.2% 35%  
321 0.8% 33%  
322 2% 33%  
323 8% 30%  
324 1.3% 22%  
325 1.2% 21%  
326 1.2% 20% Majority
327 0.3% 18%  
328 0.7% 18%  
329 0.7% 17%  
330 5% 17%  
331 1.0% 12%  
332 2% 11%  
333 0.9% 8%  
334 0.3% 7%  
335 0.4% 7%  
336 0.3% 7%  
337 0.6% 6%  
338 0.7% 6%  
339 0.2% 5%  
340 2% 5%  
341 0.5% 3%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 0% 2%  
344 0.2% 2%  
345 0.4% 2%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.1% 1.1%  
348 0.1% 1.1%  
349 0.1% 1.0%  
350 0.1% 0.8%  
351 0% 0.8%  
352 0.1% 0.7%  
353 0.1% 0.7%  
354 0.1% 0.6%  
355 0.3% 0.5%  
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.8%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0% 99.7%  
271 0% 99.6%  
272 0% 99.6%  
273 0% 99.6%  
274 0% 99.6%  
275 0% 99.5%  
276 0% 99.5%  
277 0.1% 99.4%  
278 0.1% 99.3%  
279 0% 99.2%  
280 0% 99.2%  
281 0.3% 99.1%  
282 0.2% 98.8%  
283 0.1% 98.6%  
284 0% 98.6%  
285 0.1% 98.5%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.5% 98%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.2% 97%  
291 0.6% 97%  
292 0.1% 97%  
293 0.3% 96%  
294 0.1% 96%  
295 0.4% 96%  
296 1.3% 96%  
297 0.2% 94%  
298 0.5% 94%  
299 2% 94%  
300 0.2% 92%  
301 2% 92%  
302 2% 90%  
303 1.0% 88%  
304 0.5% 87%  
305 0.8% 87%  
306 2% 86%  
307 4% 84%  
308 8% 80%  
309 0.8% 72%  
310 0.6% 71%  
311 7% 70%  
312 2% 63%  
313 4% 61%  
314 0.4% 57%  
315 3% 57%  
316 4% 53% Median
317 1.3% 50% Last Result
318 6% 48%  
319 8% 42%  
320 1.2% 35%  
321 0.8% 33%  
322 2% 33%  
323 8% 30%  
324 1.3% 22%  
325 1.2% 21%  
326 1.2% 20% Majority
327 0.3% 18%  
328 0.7% 18%  
329 0.7% 17%  
330 5% 17%  
331 1.0% 12%  
332 2% 11%  
333 0.9% 8%  
334 0.3% 7%  
335 0.4% 7%  
336 0.3% 7%  
337 0.6% 6%  
338 0.7% 6%  
339 0.2% 5%  
340 2% 5%  
341 0.5% 3%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 0% 2%  
344 0.2% 2%  
345 0.4% 2%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.1% 1.1%  
348 0.1% 1.1%  
349 0.1% 1.0%  
350 0.1% 0.8%  
351 0% 0.8%  
352 0.1% 0.7%  
353 0.1% 0.7%  
354 0.1% 0.6%  
355 0.3% 0.5%  
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0.3% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.5%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.3%  
279 0% 99.3%  
280 0.1% 99.2%  
281 0% 99.2%  
282 0.1% 99.1%  
283 0.1% 99.0%  
284 0.4% 98.9%  
285 0.3% 98%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0.1% 98%  
288 0.3% 98%  
289 0.5% 98%  
290 1.2% 97%  
291 0.9% 96%  
292 0.7% 95%  
293 0.6% 94%  
294 0.3% 94%  
295 0.4% 93%  
296 0.3% 93%  
297 0.8% 93%  
298 1.2% 92%  
299 2% 90%  
300 5% 89%  
301 0.9% 83%  
302 0.3% 83%  
303 0.6% 82%  
304 0.7% 82%  
305 2% 81%  
306 1.4% 79%  
307 8% 78%  
308 2% 70%  
309 1.0% 68%  
310 0.9% 67%  
311 5% 66%  
312 9% 61%  
313 1.2% 51% Last Result, Median
314 3% 50%  
315 3% 47%  
316 1.1% 44%  
317 4% 43%  
318 3% 39%  
319 6% 36%  
320 0.7% 30%  
321 0.9% 29%  
322 7% 28%  
323 4% 22%  
324 3% 17%  
325 1.2% 15%  
326 0.5% 13% Majority
327 1.0% 13%  
328 2% 12%  
329 2% 10%  
330 0.4% 8%  
331 2% 8%  
332 0.3% 6%  
333 0.1% 6%  
334 1.3% 6%  
335 0.2% 4%  
336 0.4% 4%  
337 0.2% 4%  
338 0.1% 4%  
339 0.6% 3%  
340 0.2% 3%  
341 0.2% 3%  
342 0.7% 2%  
343 0% 2%  
344 0.2% 2%  
345 0% 2%  
346 0.1% 2%  
347 0.1% 1.4%  
348 0.2% 1.4%  
349 0.3% 1.2%  
350 0.1% 0.9%  
351 0% 0.8%  
352 0.1% 0.8%  
353 0.1% 0.7%  
354 0.1% 0.6%  
355 0% 0.5%  
356 0.1% 0.5%  
357 0% 0.4%  
358 0% 0.4%  
359 0% 0.4%  
360 0.1% 0.4%  
361 0.1% 0.3%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.3% 99.7%  
276 0% 99.4%  
277 0.1% 99.3%  
278 0% 99.2%  
279 0% 99.2%  
280 0.2% 99.2%  
281 0% 99.0%  
282 0.4% 99.0%  
283 0.2% 98.6%  
284 0.4% 98%  
285 0.2% 98%  
286 0.1% 98%  
287 0.8% 98%  
288 0.2% 97%  
289 1.0% 97%  
290 1.1% 96%  
291 1.0% 95%  
292 0.2% 94%  
293 0.3% 93%  
294 0.4% 93%  
295 0.9% 93%  
296 0.8% 92%  
297 0.9% 91%  
298 1.4% 90%  
299 2% 89%  
300 5% 87%  
301 0.8% 82%  
302 0.3% 81%  
303 0.9% 81%  
304 0.4% 80%  
305 3% 80%  
306 1.0% 77%  
307 8% 76%  
308 5% 68%  
309 0.6% 63% Last Result
310 2% 62%  
311 5% 60%  
312 8% 55% Median
313 0.3% 47%  
314 0.2% 46%  
315 5% 46%  
316 5% 41%  
317 4% 36%  
318 2% 32%  
319 8% 30%  
320 4% 23%  
321 0.9% 19%  
322 2% 18%  
323 2% 17%  
324 2% 15%  
325 0.5% 13%  
326 1.0% 13% Majority
327 1.4% 12%  
328 4% 10%  
329 0.3% 7%  
330 0.3% 6%  
331 0.5% 6%  
332 0.2% 5%  
333 1.2% 5%  
334 0.2% 4%  
335 0.2% 4%  
336 0.2% 4%  
337 0.2% 4%  
338 0.2% 3%  
339 0.4% 3%  
340 0.2% 3%  
341 0.7% 2%  
342 0% 2%  
343 0.2% 2%  
344 0% 2%  
345 0.1% 1.5%  
346 0.2% 1.4%  
347 0.1% 1.2%  
348 0.1% 1.0%  
349 0.2% 0.9%  
350 0% 0.7%  
351 0% 0.7%  
352 0.1% 0.6%  
353 0.1% 0.6%  
354 0.1% 0.5%  
355 0% 0.4%  
356 0% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.4%  
358 0% 0.4%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0.1% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0.1% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.8%  
243 0.3% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.5%  
245 0.1% 99.5%  
246 0.1% 99.4%  
247 0% 99.3%  
248 0% 99.2%  
249 0.1% 99.2%  
250 0.1% 99.1%  
251 0.1% 99.0%  
252 0.6% 98.9%  
253 0.3% 98%  
254 0.1% 98%  
255 0.1% 98%  
256 0.2% 98%  
257 0.8% 98%  
258 2% 97%  
259 0.9% 95%  
260 0.6% 94%  
261 0.3% 93%  
262 0.3% 93%  
263 0.2% 93%  
264 0.5% 93%  
265 6% 92%  
266 0.4% 86%  
267 2% 86%  
268 2% 84%  
269 0.5% 82%  
270 0.4% 82%  
271 1.5% 81%  
272 1.5% 80%  
273 0.6% 78%  
274 8% 78%  
275 1.4% 69%  
276 2% 68%  
277 3% 66%  
278 5% 63%  
279 7% 58%  
280 7% 51% Median
281 0.8% 44%  
282 0.9% 43%  
283 4% 42%  
284 7% 39%  
285 0.5% 32%  
286 3% 32%  
287 7% 29%  
288 2% 22%  
289 7% 20%  
290 1.2% 13%  
291 1.4% 12%  
292 0.3% 10%  
293 2% 10%  
294 0.3% 8%  
295 1.2% 8%  
296 1.5% 7%  
297 0.1% 5%  
298 1.0% 5%  
299 0.5% 4%  
300 0.1% 4%  
301 0.3% 4% Last Result
302 0.2% 3%  
303 0.2% 3%  
304 0% 3%  
305 0.1% 3%  
306 0.5% 3%  
307 0.7% 2%  
308 0.2% 2%  
309 0.2% 1.5%  
310 0% 1.3%  
311 0% 1.3%  
312 0.3% 1.3%  
313 0.2% 1.0%  
314 0.1% 0.8%  
315 0% 0.7%  
316 0.1% 0.7%  
317 0.1% 0.6%  
318 0% 0.5%  
319 0% 0.5%  
320 0% 0.4%  
321 0% 0.4%  
322 0% 0.4%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.3% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.4%  
245 0% 99.3%  
246 0.1% 99.3%  
247 0.1% 99.2%  
248 0% 99.1%  
249 0.4% 99.1%  
250 0.2% 98.7%  
251 0.1% 98%  
252 0.3% 98%  
253 0.1% 98%  
254 0.4% 98%  
255 1.1% 97%  
256 0.4% 96%  
257 1.0% 96%  
258 0.9% 95%  
259 0.9% 94%  
260 0.3% 93%  
261 0.3% 93%  
262 1.3% 93%  
263 0.2% 91%  
264 0.9% 91%  
265 5% 90%  
266 0.2% 85%  
267 1.5% 84%  
268 2% 83%  
269 1.5% 81%  
270 0.5% 80%  
271 0.9% 79%  
272 1.1% 78%  
273 0.6% 77%  
274 11% 76%  
275 7% 66%  
276 0.8% 59%  
277 2% 58%  
278 1.5% 56%  
279 6% 55% Median
280 8% 49%  
281 3% 41%  
282 0.5% 38%  
283 2% 37%  
284 10% 35%  
285 1.0% 25%  
286 7% 24%  
287 1.0% 17%  
288 2% 16%  
289 3% 14%  
290 1.0% 11%  
291 1.0% 10%  
292 2% 9%  
293 1.4% 8%  
294 0.8% 6%  
295 0.3% 6%  
296 0.2% 5%  
297 1.0% 5% Last Result
298 0.2% 4%  
299 0.4% 4%  
300 0.2% 3%  
301 0.1% 3%  
302 0.2% 3%  
303 0.2% 3%  
304 0.2% 3%  
305 0.3% 3%  
306 0.7% 2%  
307 0.1% 2%  
308 0.3% 2%  
309 0.1% 1.3%  
310 0.2% 1.2%  
311 0.1% 1.0%  
312 0.1% 0.8%  
313 0.1% 0.8%  
314 0% 0.7%  
315 0% 0.7%  
316 0.1% 0.6%  
317 0% 0.5%  
318 0% 0.5%  
319 0% 0.4%  
320 0% 0.4%  
321 0.1% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0.1% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0.1% 100%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.3% 99.8%  
228 0% 99.5%  
229 0% 99.4%  
230 0.1% 99.4%  
231 0.1% 99.3%  
232 0.1% 99.3%  
233 0.1% 99.2%  
234 0% 99.1%  
235 0% 99.1%  
236 0.1% 99.0%  
237 0.5% 98.9%  
238 0.1% 98%  
239 0.5% 98%  
240 1.4% 98%  
241 0.6% 96%  
242 0.3% 96%  
243 0.9% 96%  
244 0.6% 95%  
245 0.2% 94%  
246 1.1% 94%  
247 0.2% 93%  
248 1.4% 93%  
249 5% 91%  
250 0.4% 86%  
251 0.4% 85%  
252 0.8% 85%  
253 1.4% 84%  
254 1.0% 83%  
255 2% 82%  
256 0.9% 80%  
257 9% 79%  
258 0.8% 70%  
259 1.3% 69%  
260 4% 67%  
261 3% 64%  
262 9% 61%  
263 2% 52% Median
264 4% 50%  
265 3% 46%  
266 0.6% 43%  
267 0.8% 43%  
268 3% 42%  
269 9% 38%  
270 0.6% 30%  
271 3% 29%  
272 6% 26%  
273 3% 20%  
274 2% 17%  
275 3% 15%  
276 2% 12%  
277 1.1% 10%  
278 0.1% 9% Last Result
279 0.7% 9%  
280 0.8% 8%  
281 0.3% 7%  
282 0.1% 7%  
283 1.3% 7%  
284 1.4% 5%  
285 0.2% 4%  
286 0.6% 4%  
287 0.1% 3%  
288 0.3% 3%  
289 0.2% 3%  
290 0% 3%  
291 0.6% 3%  
292 0.1% 2%  
293 0.2% 2%  
294 0% 2%  
295 0.2% 2%  
296 0.4% 2%  
297 0% 1.2%  
298 0.2% 1.1%  
299 0.1% 0.9%  
300 0% 0.8%  
301 0.1% 0.8%  
302 0.1% 0.7%  
303 0% 0.6%  
304 0% 0.5%  
305 0.1% 0.5%  
306 0% 0.5%  
307 0% 0.4%  
308 0.1% 0.4%  
309 0% 0.3%  
310 0% 0.3%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0.1% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0.1% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.3% 99.7%  
228 0% 99.4%  
229 0.2% 99.4%  
230 0.1% 99.2%  
231 0.1% 99.2%  
232 0% 99.1%  
233 0% 99.1%  
234 0.3% 99.1%  
235 0.1% 98.8%  
236 0.3% 98.7%  
237 0.3% 98%  
238 0.6% 98%  
239 0.5% 97%  
240 2% 97%  
241 0.2% 95%  
242 0.3% 95%  
243 0.7% 95%  
244 0.6% 94%  
245 0.3% 93%  
246 1.0% 93%  
247 0.3% 92%  
248 2% 92%  
249 5% 90%  
250 2% 85%  
251 0.4% 83%  
252 0.9% 83%  
253 0.6% 82%  
254 2% 82%  
255 3% 80%  
256 1.2% 77%  
257 11% 76%  
258 1.3% 65%  
259 0.9% 64%  
260 3% 63%  
261 4% 60%  
262 9% 56% Median
263 0.8% 47%  
264 0.7% 46%  
265 4% 45%  
266 5% 41%  
267 0.8% 36%  
268 2% 35%  
269 10% 33%  
270 3% 23%  
271 2% 20%  
272 3% 18%  
273 2% 15%  
274 0.8% 13% Last Result
275 2% 12%  
276 1.1% 10%  
277 0.4% 9%  
278 0.6% 8%  
279 0.4% 8%  
280 2% 7%  
281 0.2% 5%  
282 0.4% 5%  
283 1.0% 5%  
284 0.2% 4%  
285 0.2% 4%  
286 0.5% 4%  
287 0.2% 3%  
288 0.1% 3%  
289 0.2% 3%  
290 0.6% 3%  
291 0% 2%  
292 0.1% 2%  
293 0.2% 2%  
294 0.2% 2%  
295 0.5% 1.4%  
296 0% 1.0%  
297 0% 0.9%  
298 0.2% 0.9%  
299 0% 0.7%  
300 0% 0.7%  
301 0.1% 0.6%  
302 0.1% 0.6%  
303 0.1% 0.5%  
304 0% 0.4%  
305 0% 0.4%  
306 0.1% 0.4%  
307 0% 0.3%  
308 0% 0.3%  
309 0% 0.3%  
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0.1% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0.1% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.3% 99.7%  
228 0% 99.4%  
229 0.2% 99.4%  
230 0.1% 99.2%  
231 0.1% 99.2%  
232 0% 99.1%  
233 0% 99.1%  
234 0.3% 99.1%  
235 0.1% 98.8%  
236 0.3% 98.7%  
237 0.3% 98%  
238 0.6% 98%  
239 0.5% 97%  
240 2% 97%  
241 0.2% 95%  
242 0.3% 95%  
243 0.7% 95%  
244 0.6% 94%  
245 0.3% 93%  
246 1.0% 93%  
247 0.3% 92%  
248 2% 92%  
249 5% 90%  
250 2% 85%  
251 0.4% 83%  
252 0.9% 83%  
253 0.6% 82%  
254 2% 82%  
255 3% 80%  
256 1.2% 77%  
257 11% 76%  
258 1.3% 65%  
259 0.9% 64%  
260 3% 63%  
261 4% 60%  
262 9% 56% Median
263 0.8% 47%  
264 0.7% 46%  
265 4% 45%  
266 5% 41%  
267 0.8% 36%  
268 2% 35%  
269 10% 33%  
270 3% 23%  
271 2% 20%  
272 3% 18%  
273 2% 15%  
274 0.8% 13% Last Result
275 2% 12%  
276 1.1% 10%  
277 0.4% 9%  
278 0.6% 8%  
279 0.4% 8%  
280 2% 7%  
281 0.2% 5%  
282 0.4% 5%  
283 1.0% 5%  
284 0.2% 4%  
285 0.2% 4%  
286 0.5% 4%  
287 0.2% 3%  
288 0.1% 3%  
289 0.2% 3%  
290 0.6% 3%  
291 0% 2%  
292 0.1% 2%  
293 0.2% 2%  
294 0.2% 2%  
295 0.5% 1.4%  
296 0% 1.0%  
297 0% 0.9%  
298 0.2% 0.9%  
299 0% 0.7%  
300 0% 0.7%  
301 0.1% 0.6%  
302 0.1% 0.6%  
303 0.1% 0.5%  
304 0% 0.4%  
305 0% 0.4%  
306 0.1% 0.4%  
307 0% 0.3%  
308 0% 0.3%  
309 0% 0.3%  
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0.1% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
188 0.1% 100%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.8%  
194 0% 99.8%  
195 0.4% 99.8%  
196 0% 99.5%  
197 0% 99.4%  
198 0% 99.4%  
199 0.1% 99.4%  
200 0% 99.3%  
201 0.2% 99.2%  
202 0% 99.1%  
203 0% 99.0%  
204 0.3% 99.0%  
205 0.1% 98.7%  
206 0.4% 98.6%  
207 1.3% 98%  
208 0.3% 97%  
209 1.3% 97%  
210 0.4% 95%  
211 1.2% 95%  
212 0.1% 94%  
213 0.3% 93%  
214 4% 93%  
215 0.3% 89%  
216 2% 88%  
217 0.6% 87%  
218 2% 86%  
219 0.5% 84%  
220 2% 84%  
221 1.4% 82%  
222 0.2% 80%  
223 0.5% 80%  
224 10% 80%  
225 2% 69%  
226 2% 68%  
227 6% 66%  
228 1.2% 59%  
229 6% 58%  
230 8% 52% Median
231 2% 44%  
232 1.3% 42%  
233 3% 41%  
234 3% 38%  
235 0.1% 36%  
236 7% 36%  
237 7% 28%  
238 2% 21%  
239 8% 19%  
240 3% 11%  
241 0.1% 9%  
242 0.4% 8%  
243 0.2% 8%  
244 0.7% 8%  
245 0.1% 7%  
246 0.3% 7%  
247 0.3% 7%  
248 3% 6%  
249 0.1% 3%  
250 0.1% 3%  
251 0.1% 3%  
252 0.2% 3%  
253 0% 3%  
254 0.1% 3%  
255 0.3% 3%  
256 0.7% 3%  
257 0% 2%  
258 0% 2%  
259 0.4% 2%  
260 0.2% 1.4%  
261 0.2% 1.2%  
262 0.2% 1.0%  
263 0.1% 0.8%  
264 0% 0.7%  
265 0.1% 0.7%  
266 0.1% 0.6% Last Result
267 0.1% 0.5%  
268 0% 0.4%  
269 0% 0.4%  
270 0% 0.4%  
271 0% 0.4%  
272 0.2% 0.4%  
273 0% 0.2%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
187 0% 100%  
188 0.1% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.8%  
193 0% 99.8%  
194 0% 99.8%  
195 0.3% 99.8%  
196 0.1% 99.4%  
197 0.1% 99.3%  
198 0.1% 99.3%  
199 0.1% 99.2%  
200 0% 99.1%  
201 0.2% 99.1%  
202 0.1% 98.9%  
203 0.3% 98.8%  
204 0.2% 98.5%  
205 0.2% 98%  
206 0.8% 98%  
207 2% 97%  
208 1.4% 96%  
209 0.8% 94%  
210 0.1% 94%  
211 0.1% 94%  
212 0.1% 93%  
213 0.8% 93%  
214 5% 92%  
215 0.5% 88%  
216 1.5% 87%  
217 2% 86%  
218 3% 84%  
219 0.3% 81%  
220 0.1% 80%  
221 0.1% 80%  
222 1.2% 80%  
223 2% 79%  
224 17% 77%  
225 1.5% 60%  
226 0.4% 59%  
227 3% 58%  
228 1.0% 56%  
229 5% 55% Median
230 9% 49%  
231 3% 40%  
232 2% 38%  
233 1.5% 36%  
234 5% 35%  
235 1.2% 29%  
236 13% 28%  
237 2% 15%  
238 2% 14%  
239 3% 11%  
240 0.3% 8%  
241 0.3% 8%  
242 0.3% 8%  
243 0.4% 8%  
244 0.3% 7%  
245 2% 7%  
246 0.7% 5%  
247 1.3% 5%  
248 0.1% 3%  
249 0% 3%  
250 0.1% 3%  
251 0.2% 3%  
252 0.1% 3%  
253 0.2% 3%  
254 0.3% 3%  
255 0.6% 2%  
256 0.1% 2%  
257 0% 2%  
258 0.4% 2%  
259 0.2% 1.2%  
260 0.2% 1.0%  
261 0.1% 0.8%  
262 0.1% 0.8% Last Result
263 0% 0.7%  
264 0.1% 0.7%  
265 0.2% 0.6%  
266 0% 0.5%  
267 0% 0.4%  
268 0% 0.4%  
269 0% 0.4%  
270 0.1% 0.4%  
271 0.1% 0.3%  
272 0% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
187 0% 100%  
188 0.1% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.8%  
193 0% 99.8%  
194 0% 99.8%  
195 0.3% 99.8%  
196 0.1% 99.4%  
197 0.1% 99.3%  
198 0.1% 99.3%  
199 0.1% 99.2%  
200 0% 99.1%  
201 0.2% 99.1%  
202 0.1% 98.9%  
203 0.3% 98.8%  
204 0.2% 98.5%  
205 0.2% 98%  
206 0.8% 98%  
207 2% 97%  
208 1.4% 96%  
209 0.8% 94%  
210 0.1% 94%  
211 0.1% 94%  
212 0.1% 93%  
213 0.8% 93%  
214 5% 92%  
215 0.5% 88%  
216 1.5% 87%  
217 2% 86%  
218 3% 84%  
219 0.3% 81%  
220 0.1% 80%  
221 0.1% 80%  
222 1.2% 80%  
223 2% 79%  
224 17% 77%  
225 1.5% 60%  
226 0.4% 59%  
227 3% 58%  
228 1.0% 56%  
229 5% 55% Median
230 9% 49%  
231 3% 40%  
232 2% 38%  
233 1.5% 36%  
234 5% 35%  
235 1.2% 29%  
236 13% 28%  
237 2% 15%  
238 2% 14%  
239 3% 11%  
240 0.3% 8%  
241 0.3% 8%  
242 0.3% 8%  
243 0.4% 8%  
244 0.3% 7%  
245 2% 7%  
246 0.7% 5%  
247 1.3% 5%  
248 0.1% 3%  
249 0% 3%  
250 0.1% 3%  
251 0.2% 3%  
252 0.1% 3%  
253 0.2% 3%  
254 0.3% 3%  
255 0.6% 2%  
256 0.1% 2%  
257 0% 2%  
258 0.4% 2%  
259 0.2% 1.2%  
260 0.2% 1.0%  
261 0.1% 0.8%  
262 0.1% 0.8% Last Result
263 0% 0.7%  
264 0.1% 0.7%  
265 0.2% 0.6%  
266 0% 0.5%  
267 0% 0.4%  
268 0% 0.4%  
269 0% 0.4%  
270 0.1% 0.4%  
271 0.1% 0.3%  
272 0% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations