Opinion Poll by Deltapoll for The Mail on Sunday, 28–30 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 45.1% 43.5–46.7% 43.0–47.2% 42.6–47.6% 41.8–48.4%
Labour Party 41.0% 32.1% 30.6–33.6% 30.1–34.1% 29.8–34.5% 29.1–35.2%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 15.1% 13.9–16.3% 13.6–16.6% 13.3–16.9% 12.8–17.5%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Brexit Party 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Green Party 1.7% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 364 343–381 337–385 333–389 326–402
Labour Party 262 195 181–215 177–219 173–224 162–234
Liberal Democrats 12 36 32–40 31–43 30–44 30–46
Scottish National Party 35 38 18–41 17–42 15–45 6–50
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 99.9% Last Result
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.8%  
322 0% 99.8%  
323 0.1% 99.7%  
324 0% 99.6%  
325 0.1% 99.6%  
326 0.1% 99.5% Majority
327 0.1% 99.4%  
328 0.1% 99.3%  
329 0.4% 99.2%  
330 0.4% 98.8%  
331 0.4% 98%  
332 0.1% 98%  
333 0.6% 98%  
334 0.5% 97%  
335 0.4% 97%  
336 0.9% 96%  
337 0.7% 96%  
338 1.1% 95%  
339 1.1% 94%  
340 0.7% 93%  
341 0.9% 92%  
342 0.4% 91%  
343 0.9% 91%  
344 0.4% 90%  
345 0.8% 89%  
346 1.3% 89%  
347 3% 87%  
348 4% 84%  
349 0.6% 80%  
350 0.8% 80%  
351 5% 79%  
352 5% 74%  
353 1.4% 69%  
354 1.1% 67%  
355 1.1% 66%  
356 2% 65%  
357 1.4% 63%  
358 1.0% 62%  
359 1.2% 61%  
360 3% 60%  
361 1.1% 57%  
362 5% 56%  
363 0.9% 51%  
364 3% 50% Median
365 0.8% 47%  
366 1.4% 46%  
367 5% 45%  
368 2% 40%  
369 2% 39%  
370 4% 37%  
371 3% 32%  
372 2% 30%  
373 4% 28%  
374 1.5% 24%  
375 2% 22%  
376 1.5% 20%  
377 4% 19%  
378 1.5% 15%  
379 0.8% 14%  
380 3% 13%  
381 2% 10%  
382 0.5% 8%  
383 1.1% 7%  
384 1.1% 6%  
385 0.3% 5%  
386 0.7% 5%  
387 0.5% 4%  
388 0.9% 4%  
389 0.4% 3%  
390 0.2% 2%  
391 0.2% 2%  
392 0.2% 2%  
393 0.1% 2%  
394 0.1% 2%  
395 0.4% 2%  
396 0.2% 1.2%  
397 0.2% 0.9%  
398 0.1% 0.7%  
399 0% 0.7%  
400 0% 0.6%  
401 0% 0.6%  
402 0.1% 0.6%  
403 0% 0.5%  
404 0.2% 0.4%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0% 100%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.8%  
158 0.1% 99.7%  
159 0% 99.7%  
160 0% 99.6%  
161 0.1% 99.6%  
162 0.2% 99.5%  
163 0.1% 99.4%  
164 0% 99.2%  
165 0.1% 99.2%  
166 0.2% 99.1%  
167 0.3% 98.9%  
168 0.2% 98.6%  
169 0.2% 98%  
170 0.1% 98%  
171 0.1% 98%  
172 0.5% 98%  
173 0.4% 98%  
174 0.5% 97%  
175 1.3% 97%  
176 0.2% 95%  
177 0.3% 95%  
178 0.5% 95%  
179 1.3% 94%  
180 3% 93%  
181 2% 90%  
182 0.6% 89%  
183 5% 88%  
184 0.7% 83%  
185 4% 82%  
186 3% 78%  
187 7% 75%  
188 5% 68%  
189 1.1% 62%  
190 2% 61%  
191 1.1% 60%  
192 2% 59%  
193 0.5% 57%  
194 1.0% 56%  
195 6% 55% Median
196 0.7% 49%  
197 1.1% 48%  
198 2% 47%  
199 1.4% 45%  
200 2% 44%  
201 1.0% 42%  
202 5% 41%  
203 0.4% 37%  
204 3% 36%  
205 4% 33%  
206 2% 29%  
207 5% 27%  
208 5% 22%  
209 2% 17%  
210 0.5% 15%  
211 0.1% 15%  
212 1.1% 15%  
213 0.7% 14%  
214 2% 13%  
215 1.1% 11%  
216 0.8% 10%  
217 1.3% 9%  
218 2% 8%  
219 0.9% 6%  
220 0.2% 5%  
221 0.9% 5%  
222 0.2% 4%  
223 0.8% 4%  
224 0.5% 3%  
225 0.5% 2%  
226 0.2% 2%  
227 0.1% 2%  
228 0.3% 2%  
229 0.3% 1.2%  
230 0.1% 0.9%  
231 0.1% 0.8%  
232 0.1% 0.7%  
233 0.1% 0.6%  
234 0.1% 0.5%  
235 0.1% 0.5%  
236 0.1% 0.4%  
237 0% 0.3%  
238 0% 0.3%  
239 0% 0.2%  
240 0% 0.2%  
241 0.1% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 3% 99.9%  
31 6% 97%  
32 11% 91%  
33 9% 80%  
34 3% 70%  
35 14% 67%  
36 5% 53% Median
37 14% 48%  
38 13% 34%  
39 8% 21%  
40 4% 13%  
41 2% 9%  
42 2% 7%  
43 2% 5%  
44 2% 4%  
45 0.7% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.9%  
47 0.1% 0.4%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.3% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.6%  
5 0.1% 99.6%  
6 0.2% 99.6%  
7 0% 99.4%  
8 0% 99.4%  
9 0.1% 99.4%  
10 0.4% 99.3%  
11 0.2% 99.0%  
12 0.1% 98.8%  
13 0.2% 98.6%  
14 0.5% 98%  
15 0.7% 98%  
16 2% 97%  
17 2% 96%  
18 3% 93%  
19 1.0% 90%  
20 1.0% 89%  
21 0.4% 88%  
22 0.6% 87%  
23 1.1% 87%  
24 1.1% 86%  
25 0.9% 85%  
26 0.6% 84%  
27 1.1% 83%  
28 2% 82%  
29 0.7% 80%  
30 0.6% 79%  
31 0.5% 79%  
32 1.0% 78%  
33 3% 77%  
34 3% 74%  
35 4% 71% Last Result
36 5% 67%  
37 8% 62%  
38 5% 54% Median
39 11% 49%  
40 7% 37%  
41 24% 30%  
42 2% 6%  
43 0.3% 4%  
44 0% 4%  
45 1.4% 4%  
46 0% 2%  
47 0.8% 2%  
48 0.5% 1.3%  
49 0% 0.8%  
50 0.7% 0.8%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 94% 94% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Median
1 0% 21%  
2 0.1% 21%  
3 11% 21%  
4 10% 10% Last Result
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 398 100% 378–416 374–420 369–425 357–435
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 400 100% 381–415 375–419 370–424 364–435
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 398 100% 377–416 373–420 368–424 357–435
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 364 99.6% 344–381 338–386 334–391 326–403
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 364 99.5% 343–381 337–385 333–389 326–402
Conservative Party 317 364 99.5% 343–381 337–385 333–389 326–402
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 314 268 0% 251–289 247–295 243–299 230–306
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 267 0% 250–288 246–294 242–298 229–305
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 267 0% 250–287 245–294 240–297 229–305
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 233 0% 215–254 211–258 207–263 196–275
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 233 0% 215–253 211–258 206–262 196–274
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 231 0% 216–250 212–257 207–261 196–267
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 230 0% 215–249 211–256 205–260 194–266
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 196 0% 182–216 179–220 174–225 162–235
Labour Party 262 195 0% 181–215 177–219 173–224 162–234

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0.1% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.8%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0% 99.7%  
356 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
357 0.1% 99.6%  
358 0% 99.5%  
359 0% 99.5%  
360 0.1% 99.4%  
361 0.1% 99.4%  
362 0.1% 99.3%  
363 0.3% 99.1%  
364 0.1% 98.9%  
365 0.2% 98.8%  
366 0.3% 98.6%  
367 0.2% 98%  
368 0.3% 98%  
369 0.8% 98%  
370 0.4% 97%  
371 0.3% 97%  
372 0.6% 96%  
373 0.6% 96%  
374 0.8% 95%  
375 0.8% 94%  
376 2% 93%  
377 1.2% 92%  
378 0.6% 91%  
379 2% 90%  
380 2% 88%  
381 0.3% 86%  
382 1.4% 86%  
383 1.2% 85%  
384 1.0% 84%  
385 3% 83%  
386 1.3% 79%  
387 2% 78%  
388 7% 76%  
389 2% 69%  
390 0.7% 67%  
391 0.7% 67%  
392 6% 66%  
393 1.1% 60%  
394 2% 59%  
395 0.6% 56%  
396 2% 56%  
397 1.2% 54%  
398 4% 53%  
399 0.9% 49%  
400 1.0% 48%  
401 4% 47%  
402 1.1% 43% Median
403 1.4% 42%  
404 2% 41%  
405 2% 39%  
406 3% 37%  
407 1.2% 34%  
408 2% 32%  
409 2% 30%  
410 1.5% 28%  
411 7% 27%  
412 2% 20%  
413 2% 19%  
414 3% 17%  
415 2% 14%  
416 3% 12%  
417 2% 10%  
418 1.2% 8%  
419 0.5% 7%  
420 2% 6%  
421 0.4% 5%  
422 0.3% 4%  
423 0.5% 4%  
424 0.3% 3%  
425 1.1% 3%  
426 0.2% 2%  
427 0.2% 2%  
428 0.1% 2%  
429 0.3% 2%  
430 0.1% 1.3%  
431 0.2% 1.2%  
432 0.1% 1.0%  
433 0.3% 0.9%  
434 0% 0.6%  
435 0.1% 0.6%  
436 0.1% 0.5%  
437 0.1% 0.4%  
438 0% 0.3%  
439 0% 0.3%  
440 0.1% 0.3%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0.1% 0.2%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.8%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0% 99.7%  
362 0.1% 99.7%  
363 0.1% 99.6%  
364 0.2% 99.6%  
365 0.1% 99.3%  
366 0.3% 99.2%  
367 0.1% 98.9%  
368 0.3% 98.8%  
369 0.8% 98%  
370 0.3% 98%  
371 0.3% 97%  
372 0.3% 97%  
373 1.3% 97%  
374 0.4% 95%  
375 0.3% 95%  
376 1.5% 95%  
377 1.0% 93%  
378 0.7% 92%  
379 0.5% 92%  
380 0.3% 91%  
381 0.9% 91%  
382 4% 90%  
383 2% 86%  
384 0.6% 84%  
385 2% 83%  
386 1.1% 81%  
387 2% 80%  
388 1.4% 77%  
389 8% 76%  
390 0.2% 68%  
391 1.1% 68%  
392 2% 67%  
393 1.0% 65%  
394 1.1% 64%  
395 4% 63%  
396 1.5% 59%  
397 1.5% 57%  
398 2% 56%  
399 2% 54%  
400 5% 52% Median
401 1.4% 48%  
402 4% 46%  
403 1.4% 42%  
404 4% 41%  
405 1.3% 36%  
406 4% 35%  
407 3% 31%  
408 4% 28%  
409 4% 24%  
410 1.1% 20%  
411 2% 19%  
412 1.1% 17%  
413 1.1% 16%  
414 3% 15%  
415 3% 12%  
416 2% 10%  
417 0.7% 8%  
418 1.4% 7%  
419 1.0% 6%  
420 0.9% 5%  
421 0.2% 4%  
422 0.7% 4%  
423 0.2% 3%  
424 0.5% 3%  
425 0.2% 2%  
426 0.5% 2%  
427 0.1% 2%  
428 0.1% 2%  
429 0.1% 1.4%  
430 0.1% 1.3%  
431 0.1% 1.1%  
432 0.2% 1.0%  
433 0.2% 0.8%  
434 0.1% 0.7%  
435 0.2% 0.6%  
436 0% 0.5%  
437 0.1% 0.4%  
438 0.1% 0.3%  
439 0% 0.2%  
440 0% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0.1% 99.9%  
352 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
353 0.1% 99.7%  
354 0% 99.7%  
355 0% 99.6%  
356 0.1% 99.6%  
357 0.1% 99.5%  
358 0.1% 99.5%  
359 0% 99.4%  
360 0.3% 99.3%  
361 0.1% 99.1%  
362 0.1% 99.0%  
363 0.1% 98.8%  
364 0% 98.7%  
365 0.2% 98.7%  
366 0.3% 98%  
367 0.5% 98%  
368 0.2% 98%  
369 1.1% 97%  
370 0.1% 96%  
371 0.4% 96%  
372 0.6% 96%  
373 0.8% 95%  
374 0.8% 94%  
375 0.6% 94%  
376 2% 93%  
377 1.4% 91%  
378 0.8% 90%  
379 2% 89%  
380 1.4% 87%  
381 0.6% 86%  
382 1.5% 85%  
383 1.1% 84%  
384 0.7% 83%  
385 3% 82%  
386 1.4% 78%  
387 2% 77%  
388 7% 75%  
389 2% 68%  
390 0.7% 66%  
391 0.8% 65%  
392 6% 65%  
393 0.7% 59%  
394 2% 58%  
395 0.6% 56%  
396 2% 55%  
397 1.4% 53%  
398 4% 52%  
399 1.2% 48%  
400 1.0% 47%  
401 4% 46%  
402 0.9% 42% Median
403 1.1% 41%  
404 2% 40%  
405 3% 37%  
406 3% 35%  
407 1.0% 31%  
408 2% 30%  
409 2% 28%  
410 1.3% 26%  
411 7% 24%  
412 2% 17%  
413 2% 15%  
414 2% 14%  
415 1.2% 12%  
416 2% 11%  
417 2% 9%  
418 0.9% 7%  
419 0.6% 6%  
420 1.1% 5%  
421 0.8% 4%  
422 0.2% 3%  
423 0.3% 3%  
424 0.4% 3%  
425 0.6% 2%  
426 0.2% 2%  
427 0.2% 2%  
428 0.1% 1.4%  
429 0.3% 1.3%  
430 0.1% 1.1%  
431 0.1% 1.0%  
432 0.1% 0.9%  
433 0.3% 0.8%  
434 0.1% 0.6%  
435 0.1% 0.5%  
436 0% 0.4%  
437 0.1% 0.4%  
438 0% 0.3%  
439 0% 0.3%  
440 0.1% 0.3%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0.1% 0.2%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.8% Last Result
322 0% 99.8%  
323 0% 99.8%  
324 0% 99.7%  
325 0% 99.7%  
326 0.2% 99.6% Majority
327 0.1% 99.5%  
328 0% 99.4%  
329 0.5% 99.4%  
330 0.4% 98.9%  
331 0.2% 98%  
332 0.1% 98%  
333 0.6% 98%  
334 0.6% 98%  
335 0.5% 97%  
336 0.8% 97%  
337 0.6% 96%  
338 0.6% 95%  
339 1.1% 95%  
340 0.7% 93%  
341 1.2% 93%  
342 0.4% 92%  
343 0.9% 91%  
344 0.5% 90%  
345 0.8% 90%  
346 1.4% 89%  
347 3% 88%  
348 3% 85%  
349 0.5% 81%  
350 0.8% 81%  
351 6% 80%  
352 5% 74%  
353 1.3% 69%  
354 0.8% 68%  
355 0.9% 67%  
356 2% 66%  
357 2% 65%  
358 1.1% 63%  
359 0.9% 62%  
360 3% 61%  
361 1.1% 58%  
362 4% 57%  
363 1.2% 53%  
364 3% 52% Median
365 0.8% 49%  
366 2% 48%  
367 4% 46%  
368 1.1% 43%  
369 2% 42%  
370 4% 40%  
371 3% 36%  
372 2% 33%  
373 5% 31%  
374 3% 26%  
375 2% 24%  
376 1.5% 22%  
377 4% 20%  
378 1.5% 16%  
379 1.0% 15%  
380 2% 14%  
381 2% 11%  
382 0.4% 9%  
383 1.3% 9%  
384 1.1% 7%  
385 0.2% 6%  
386 1.0% 6%  
387 0.5% 5%  
388 1.1% 4%  
389 0.3% 3%  
390 0.2% 3%  
391 0.4% 3%  
392 0.4% 2%  
393 0.2% 2%  
394 0.1% 2%  
395 0.4% 2%  
396 0.2% 1.4%  
397 0.2% 1.1%  
398 0.1% 0.9%  
399 0.1% 0.8%  
400 0% 0.8%  
401 0.1% 0.7%  
402 0.1% 0.6%  
403 0% 0.5%  
404 0.1% 0.5%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0.1% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 99.9% Last Result
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.8%  
322 0% 99.8%  
323 0.1% 99.7%  
324 0% 99.6%  
325 0.1% 99.6%  
326 0.1% 99.5% Majority
327 0.1% 99.4%  
328 0.1% 99.3%  
329 0.4% 99.2%  
330 0.4% 98.8%  
331 0.4% 98%  
332 0.1% 98%  
333 0.6% 98%  
334 0.5% 97%  
335 0.4% 97%  
336 0.9% 96%  
337 0.7% 96%  
338 1.1% 95%  
339 1.1% 94%  
340 0.7% 93%  
341 0.9% 92%  
342 0.4% 91%  
343 0.9% 91%  
344 0.4% 90%  
345 0.8% 89%  
346 1.3% 89%  
347 3% 87%  
348 4% 84%  
349 0.6% 80%  
350 0.8% 80%  
351 5% 79%  
352 5% 74%  
353 1.4% 69%  
354 1.1% 67%  
355 1.1% 66%  
356 2% 65%  
357 1.4% 63%  
358 1.0% 62%  
359 1.2% 61%  
360 3% 60%  
361 1.1% 57%  
362 5% 56%  
363 0.9% 51%  
364 3% 50% Median
365 0.8% 47%  
366 1.4% 46%  
367 5% 45%  
368 2% 40%  
369 2% 39%  
370 4% 37%  
371 3% 32%  
372 2% 30%  
373 4% 28%  
374 1.5% 24%  
375 2% 22%  
376 1.5% 20%  
377 4% 19%  
378 1.5% 15%  
379 0.8% 14%  
380 3% 13%  
381 2% 10%  
382 0.5% 8%  
383 1.1% 7%  
384 1.1% 6%  
385 0.3% 5%  
386 0.7% 5%  
387 0.5% 4%  
388 0.9% 4%  
389 0.4% 3%  
390 0.2% 2%  
391 0.2% 2%  
392 0.2% 2%  
393 0.1% 2%  
394 0.1% 2%  
395 0.4% 2%  
396 0.2% 1.2%  
397 0.2% 0.9%  
398 0.1% 0.7%  
399 0% 0.7%  
400 0% 0.6%  
401 0% 0.6%  
402 0.1% 0.6%  
403 0% 0.5%  
404 0.2% 0.4%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 99.9% Last Result
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.8%  
322 0% 99.8%  
323 0.1% 99.7%  
324 0% 99.6%  
325 0.1% 99.6%  
326 0.1% 99.5% Majority
327 0.1% 99.4%  
328 0.1% 99.3%  
329 0.4% 99.2%  
330 0.4% 98.8%  
331 0.4% 98%  
332 0.1% 98%  
333 0.6% 98%  
334 0.5% 97%  
335 0.4% 97%  
336 0.9% 96%  
337 0.7% 96%  
338 1.1% 95%  
339 1.1% 94%  
340 0.7% 93%  
341 0.9% 92%  
342 0.4% 91%  
343 0.9% 91%  
344 0.4% 90%  
345 0.8% 89%  
346 1.3% 89%  
347 3% 87%  
348 4% 84%  
349 0.6% 80%  
350 0.8% 80%  
351 5% 79%  
352 5% 74%  
353 1.4% 69%  
354 1.1% 67%  
355 1.1% 66%  
356 2% 65%  
357 1.4% 63%  
358 1.0% 62%  
359 1.2% 61%  
360 3% 60%  
361 1.1% 57%  
362 5% 56%  
363 0.9% 51%  
364 3% 50% Median
365 0.8% 47%  
366 1.4% 46%  
367 5% 45%  
368 2% 40%  
369 2% 39%  
370 4% 37%  
371 3% 32%  
372 2% 30%  
373 4% 28%  
374 1.5% 24%  
375 2% 22%  
376 1.5% 20%  
377 4% 19%  
378 1.5% 15%  
379 0.8% 14%  
380 3% 13%  
381 2% 10%  
382 0.5% 8%  
383 1.1% 7%  
384 1.1% 6%  
385 0.3% 5%  
386 0.7% 5%  
387 0.5% 4%  
388 0.9% 4%  
389 0.4% 3%  
390 0.2% 2%  
391 0.2% 2%  
392 0.2% 2%  
393 0.1% 2%  
394 0.1% 2%  
395 0.4% 2%  
396 0.2% 1.2%  
397 0.2% 0.9%  
398 0.1% 0.7%  
399 0% 0.7%  
400 0% 0.6%  
401 0% 0.6%  
402 0.1% 0.6%  
403 0% 0.5%  
404 0.2% 0.4%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.2% 99.7%  
229 0% 99.6%  
230 0.1% 99.5%  
231 0% 99.4%  
232 0% 99.4%  
233 0% 99.4%  
234 0.1% 99.3%  
235 0.2% 99.3%  
236 0.2% 99.1%  
237 0.4% 98.8%  
238 0.1% 98%  
239 0.1% 98%  
240 0.2% 98%  
241 0.2% 98%  
242 0.2% 98%  
243 0.4% 98%  
244 0.9% 97%  
245 0.5% 96%  
246 0.7% 96%  
247 0.3% 95%  
248 1.1% 95%  
249 1.1% 94%  
250 0.5% 93%  
251 2% 92%  
252 3% 90%  
253 0.8% 87%  
254 1.5% 86%  
255 4% 85%  
256 1.5% 81%  
257 2% 80%  
258 1.5% 78%  
259 4% 76%  
260 2% 72%  
261 3% 70%  
262 4% 68%  
263 2% 63%  
264 2% 61%  
265 5% 60%  
266 1.4% 55%  
267 0.8% 54%  
268 3% 53%  
269 0.9% 50%  
270 5% 49% Median
271 1.1% 44%  
272 3% 43%  
273 1.2% 40%  
274 1.0% 39%  
275 1.4% 38%  
276 2% 37%  
277 1.1% 35%  
278 1.1% 34%  
279 1.4% 33%  
280 5% 31%  
281 5% 26%  
282 0.8% 21%  
283 0.6% 20%  
284 4% 20%  
285 3% 16%  
286 1.3% 13%  
287 0.8% 11%  
288 0.4% 11%  
289 0.9% 10%  
290 0.4% 9%  
291 0.9% 9%  
292 0.7% 8%  
293 1.1% 7%  
294 1.1% 6%  
295 0.7% 5%  
296 0.9% 4%  
297 0.4% 4%  
298 0.5% 3%  
299 0.6% 3%  
300 0.1% 2%  
301 0.4% 2%  
302 0.4% 2%  
303 0.4% 1.2%  
304 0.1% 0.8%  
305 0.1% 0.7%  
306 0.1% 0.6%  
307 0.1% 0.5%  
308 0% 0.4%  
309 0.1% 0.4%  
310 0% 0.3%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0.1% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1% Last Result
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.2% 99.7%  
228 0% 99.6%  
229 0.1% 99.5%  
230 0% 99.4%  
231 0% 99.4%  
232 0% 99.4%  
233 0.1% 99.4%  
234 0.2% 99.3%  
235 0.2% 99.1%  
236 0.4% 98.8%  
237 0.1% 98%  
238 0.1% 98%  
239 0.2% 98%  
240 0.2% 98%  
241 0.2% 98%  
242 0.3% 98%  
243 0.7% 97%  
244 0.8% 97%  
245 0.7% 96%  
246 0.4% 95%  
247 1.1% 95%  
248 1.1% 94%  
249 0.4% 93%  
250 2% 92%  
251 3% 90%  
252 0.8% 87%  
253 1.3% 86%  
254 4% 85%  
255 2% 81%  
256 2% 80%  
257 2% 78%  
258 4% 76%  
259 2% 73%  
260 3% 70%  
261 4% 68%  
262 3% 64%  
263 2% 61%  
264 5% 60%  
265 2% 55%  
266 0.7% 54%  
267 3% 53%  
268 0.9% 50%  
269 5% 49% Median
270 1.2% 45%  
271 3% 43%  
272 1.1% 40%  
273 1.1% 39%  
274 1.4% 38%  
275 2% 37%  
276 1.0% 35%  
277 1.3% 34%  
278 1.4% 33%  
279 5% 31%  
280 5% 26%  
281 0.7% 21%  
282 0.5% 20%  
283 4% 20%  
284 3% 16%  
285 1.4% 13%  
286 0.8% 12%  
287 0.5% 11%  
288 0.9% 10%  
289 0.3% 9%  
290 1.0% 9%  
291 0.7% 8%  
292 1.1% 7%  
293 0.6% 6%  
294 1.2% 6%  
295 0.9% 4%  
296 0.4% 4%  
297 0.5% 3%  
298 0.6% 3%  
299 0.1% 2%  
300 0.4% 2%  
301 0.4% 2%  
302 0.4% 1.2%  
303 0.2% 0.9%  
304 0.1% 0.7%  
305 0.1% 0.6%  
306 0.1% 0.5%  
307 0% 0.4%  
308 0.1% 0.4%  
309 0% 0.3%  
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0.1% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.1% Last Result
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0.1% 99.8%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0% 99.5%  
229 0.1% 99.5%  
230 0.1% 99.4%  
231 0% 99.3%  
232 0% 99.2%  
233 0.1% 99.2%  
234 0.2% 99.1%  
235 0.2% 98.9%  
236 0.4% 98.7%  
237 0.1% 98%  
238 0.2% 98%  
239 0.4% 98%  
240 0.4% 98%  
241 0.2% 97%  
242 0.2% 97%  
243 0.9% 97%  
244 0.8% 96%  
245 1.0% 95%  
246 0.3% 94%  
247 1.1% 94%  
248 1.2% 93%  
249 0.4% 91%  
250 2% 91%  
251 2% 89%  
252 1.1% 86%  
253 1.3% 85%  
254 4% 84%  
255 1.4% 80%  
256 2% 78%  
257 3% 76%  
258 4% 74%  
259 2% 69%  
260 3% 67%  
261 4% 64%  
262 2% 61%  
263 1.0% 58%  
264 4% 57%  
265 2% 54%  
266 0.8% 52%  
267 3% 51%  
268 1.1% 48%  
269 4% 47% Median
270 1.2% 43%  
271 3% 42%  
272 0.9% 39%  
273 1.1% 38%  
274 2% 37%  
275 2% 36%  
276 0.9% 34%  
277 0.8% 33%  
278 1.3% 32%  
279 5% 31%  
280 6% 26%  
281 0.8% 20%  
282 0.5% 19%  
283 3% 19%  
284 3% 16%  
285 1.5% 13%  
286 0.8% 11%  
287 0.5% 10%  
288 0.8% 10%  
289 0.4% 9%  
290 1.3% 9%  
291 0.7% 7%  
292 1.2% 7%  
293 0.1% 5%  
294 1.1% 5%  
295 0.7% 4%  
296 0.5% 3%  
297 0.6% 3%  
298 0.6% 2%  
299 0.1% 2%  
300 0.3% 2%  
301 0.4% 2%  
302 0.4% 1.1%  
303 0.1% 0.7%  
304 0.1% 0.6%  
305 0.2% 0.5%  
306 0.1% 0.4%  
307 0% 0.3%  
308 0% 0.3%  
309 0% 0.2% Last Result
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0.1% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
188 0% 100%  
189 0.1% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.8%  
191 0.1% 99.8%  
192 0% 99.7%  
193 0% 99.7%  
194 0% 99.7%  
195 0% 99.6%  
196 0.1% 99.6%  
197 0.1% 99.5%  
198 0.3% 99.4%  
199 0.1% 99.2%  
200 0.1% 99.1%  
201 0.1% 99.0%  
202 0.3% 98.9%  
203 0.1% 98.7%  
204 0.2% 98.6%  
205 0.2% 98%  
206 0.3% 98%  
207 0.6% 98%  
208 0.3% 97%  
209 0.1% 97%  
210 0.8% 97%  
211 1.1% 96%  
212 0.5% 95%  
213 1.0% 94%  
214 2% 93%  
215 2% 91%  
216 1.3% 89%  
217 1.5% 88%  
218 2% 86%  
219 2% 85%  
220 7% 83%  
221 1.4% 76%  
222 2% 74%  
223 2% 72%  
224 1.3% 70%  
225 3% 69%  
226 2% 65%  
227 3% 63%  
228 1.0% 60%  
229 0.9% 59%  
230 4% 58%  
231 1.0% 55% Median
232 1.2% 54%  
233 4% 52%  
234 1.4% 48%  
235 2% 47%  
236 0.7% 45%  
237 2% 44%  
238 0.8% 42%  
239 6% 42%  
240 0.7% 35%  
241 0.8% 35%  
242 2% 34%  
243 7% 32%  
244 2% 25%  
245 1.4% 23%  
246 3% 22%  
247 0.7% 18%  
248 1.0% 17%  
249 2% 17%  
250 0.6% 15%  
251 1.4% 14%  
252 2% 13%  
253 0.8% 11%  
254 1.4% 10%  
255 1.4% 9%  
256 1.2% 8%  
257 0.8% 6%  
258 0.8% 6%  
259 0.6% 5%  
260 0.4% 4%  
261 0.2% 4%  
262 1.1% 4%  
263 0.2% 3%  
264 0.5% 2%  
265 0.3% 2%  
266 0.3% 2%  
267 0.1% 1.3%  
268 0.1% 1.3%  
269 0.1% 1.2%  
270 0.1% 1.1%  
271 0.3% 0.9%  
272 0% 0.7%  
273 0.1% 0.6%  
274 0% 0.6%  
275 0.1% 0.5%  
276 0% 0.4%  
277 0% 0.4%  
278 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
279 0.1% 0.3%  
280 0.1% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
187 0% 100%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0.1% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.8%  
191 0.1% 99.8%  
192 0% 99.7%  
193 0% 99.7%  
194 0.1% 99.7%  
195 0.1% 99.6%  
196 0.1% 99.5%  
197 0% 99.4%  
198 0.3% 99.4%  
199 0.1% 99.1%  
200 0.2% 99.0%  
201 0.1% 98.8%  
202 0.3% 98.7%  
203 0.1% 98%  
204 0.2% 98%  
205 0.2% 98%  
206 0.8% 98%  
207 0.6% 97%  
208 0.5% 97%  
209 0.3% 96%  
210 0.4% 96%  
211 2% 95%  
212 0.4% 94%  
213 1.3% 93%  
214 2% 92%  
215 2% 90%  
216 2% 88%  
217 3% 86%  
218 2% 83%  
219 1.3% 81%  
220 7% 80%  
221 2% 73%  
222 2% 72%  
223 2% 70%  
224 1.4% 68%  
225 3% 67%  
226 1.4% 63%  
227 3% 62%  
228 1.5% 59%  
229 1.0% 58%  
230 3% 57%  
231 1.1% 53% Median
232 0.8% 52%  
233 4% 51%  
234 1.2% 47%  
235 2% 46%  
236 0.6% 44%  
237 2% 44%  
238 1.1% 42%  
239 6% 40%  
240 0.5% 34%  
241 0.8% 33%  
242 2% 33%  
243 7% 31%  
244 2% 24%  
245 1.3% 22%  
246 3% 21%  
247 1.1% 18%  
248 1.1% 16%  
249 2% 15%  
250 0.3% 14%  
251 2% 14%  
252 2% 12%  
253 0.6% 10%  
254 1.2% 9%  
255 1.1% 8%  
256 1.3% 7%  
257 0.8% 6%  
258 0.7% 5%  
259 0.6% 4%  
260 0.3% 4%  
261 0.4% 3%  
262 0.8% 3%  
263 0.3% 2%  
264 0.2% 2%  
265 0.2% 2%  
266 0.2% 1.5%  
267 0.1% 1.2%  
268 0.3% 1.1%  
269 0.1% 0.9%  
270 0.1% 0.8%  
271 0.1% 0.6%  
272 0% 0.6%  
273 0% 0.6%  
274 0% 0.5% Last Result
275 0.1% 0.5%  
276 0% 0.3%  
277 0.1% 0.3%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0.1% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
184 0% 100%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.8%  
192 0% 99.8%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0.1% 99.7%  
195 0% 99.6%  
196 0.2% 99.5%  
197 0.1% 99.4%  
198 0.2% 99.3%  
199 0.2% 99.2%  
200 0.1% 99.0%  
201 0.1% 98.9%  
202 0.1% 98.7%  
203 0.1% 98.6%  
204 0.1% 98.5%  
205 0.5% 98%  
206 0.3% 98%  
207 0.5% 98%  
208 0.2% 97%  
209 0.6% 97%  
210 0.3% 96%  
211 0.7% 96%  
212 1.3% 95%  
213 1.4% 94%  
214 0.6% 93%  
215 2% 92%  
216 3% 90%  
217 3% 88%  
218 1.2% 85%  
219 1.1% 84%  
220 2% 83%  
221 1.0% 81%  
222 4% 80%  
223 4% 76%  
224 3% 72%  
225 4% 69%  
226 2% 65%  
227 4% 64%  
228 2% 60%  
229 4% 58%  
230 2% 54%  
231 5% 52%  
232 2% 48%  
233 2% 46% Median
234 1.5% 44%  
235 1.5% 43%  
236 4% 41%  
237 0.9% 37%  
238 1.2% 37%  
239 2% 35%  
240 1.1% 33%  
241 0.2% 32%  
242 8% 32%  
243 1.4% 24%  
244 2% 23%  
245 1.2% 20%  
246 2% 19%  
247 0.5% 17%  
248 3% 16%  
249 4% 14%  
250 0.9% 10%  
251 0.4% 9%  
252 0.5% 9%  
253 0.7% 8%  
254 1.0% 8%  
255 1.0% 7%  
256 0.7% 6%  
257 0.4% 5%  
258 1.4% 5%  
259 0.2% 3%  
260 0.3% 3%  
261 0.4% 3%  
262 0.8% 2%  
263 0.3% 2%  
264 0.1% 1.2%  
265 0.3% 1.1%  
266 0.1% 0.8%  
267 0.3% 0.7%  
268 0.1% 0.5%  
269 0.1% 0.4%  
270 0% 0.3%  
271 0.1% 0.3%  
272 0% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.2%  
274 0.1% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
184 0% 100%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.8%  
191 0% 99.8%  
192 0% 99.8%  
193 0.1% 99.7%  
194 0.2% 99.6%  
195 0% 99.5%  
196 0.2% 99.4%  
197 0.1% 99.3%  
198 0.1% 99.2%  
199 0.2% 99.1%  
200 0.1% 98.9%  
201 0.2% 98.7%  
202 0.2% 98.5%  
203 0.3% 98%  
204 0.1% 98%  
205 0.5% 98%  
206 0.3% 97%  
207 0.4% 97%  
208 0.6% 97%  
209 0.7% 96%  
210 0.3% 95%  
211 0.9% 95%  
212 0.8% 94%  
213 2% 93%  
214 0.7% 92%  
215 2% 91%  
216 3% 89%  
217 3% 86%  
218 1.1% 83%  
219 2% 82%  
220 2% 81%  
221 1.4% 79%  
222 3% 77%  
223 4% 74%  
224 2% 70%  
225 4% 68%  
226 4% 64%  
227 4% 60%  
228 2% 56%  
229 2% 53%  
230 1.4% 51%  
231 4% 50%  
232 2% 46%  
233 2% 44% Median
234 2% 43%  
235 2% 41%  
236 3% 39%  
237 0.8% 36%  
238 0.9% 35%  
239 2% 34%  
240 1.1% 33%  
241 0.3% 31%  
242 8% 31%  
243 1.1% 23%  
244 2% 22%  
245 0.8% 19%  
246 2% 19%  
247 0.8% 16%  
248 3% 16%  
249 4% 13%  
250 0.6% 9%  
251 0.5% 9%  
252 0.2% 8%  
253 0.9% 8%  
254 0.7% 7%  
255 1.0% 6%  
256 0.5% 5%  
257 0.5% 5%  
258 1.5% 4%  
259 0.3% 3%  
260 0.1% 3%  
261 0.1% 2%  
262 0.8% 2%  
263 0.3% 1.5%  
264 0.2% 1.2%  
265 0.4% 1.0%  
266 0.1% 0.6%  
267 0.1% 0.5%  
268 0% 0.3%  
269 0% 0.3%  
270 0% 0.3%  
271 0.1% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0% 100%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.8%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0% 99.7%  
160 0% 99.7%  
161 0.1% 99.7%  
162 0.2% 99.6%  
163 0.1% 99.4%  
164 0% 99.3%  
165 0.1% 99.3%  
166 0.2% 99.2%  
167 0.2% 99.0%  
168 0.1% 98.8%  
169 0.1% 98.7%  
170 0.1% 98.6%  
171 0.1% 98%  
172 0.2% 98%  
173 0.2% 98%  
174 0.4% 98%  
175 1.1% 97%  
176 0.5% 96%  
177 0.4% 96%  
178 0.1% 96%  
179 0.9% 95%  
180 2% 94%  
181 1.2% 92%  
182 1.4% 91%  
183 5% 90%  
184 0.8% 84%  
185 2% 83%  
186 3% 81%  
187 6% 79%  
188 7% 73%  
189 1.3% 66%  
190 3% 64%  
191 1.3% 61%  
192 1.2% 60%  
193 0.6% 59%  
194 0.7% 58%  
195 7% 57% Median
196 1.2% 50%  
197 1.2% 49%  
198 2% 48%  
199 1.4% 46%  
200 1.3% 45%  
201 1.2% 44%  
202 5% 42%  
203 0.6% 38%  
204 3% 37%  
205 4% 34%  
206 1.0% 30%  
207 5% 29%  
208 5% 24%  
209 3% 19%  
210 0.4% 16%  
211 0.4% 16%  
212 0.6% 15%  
213 0.7% 15%  
214 2% 14%  
215 2% 12%  
216 0.7% 11%  
217 1.5% 10%  
218 2% 8%  
219 0.9% 6%  
220 0.6% 5%  
221 0.8% 5%  
222 0.2% 4%  
223 0.7% 4%  
224 0.6% 3%  
225 0.5% 3%  
226 0.2% 2%  
227 0.3% 2%  
228 0.3% 2%  
229 0.1% 1.3%  
230 0% 1.1%  
231 0.1% 1.1%  
232 0.3% 1.0%  
233 0.1% 0.7%  
234 0.1% 0.6%  
235 0.1% 0.6%  
236 0.1% 0.5%  
237 0% 0.4%  
238 0.1% 0.4%  
239 0.1% 0.3%  
240 0% 0.2%  
241 0.1% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0% 100%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.8%  
158 0.1% 99.7%  
159 0% 99.7%  
160 0% 99.6%  
161 0.1% 99.6%  
162 0.2% 99.5%  
163 0.1% 99.4%  
164 0% 99.2%  
165 0.1% 99.2%  
166 0.2% 99.1%  
167 0.3% 98.9%  
168 0.2% 98.6%  
169 0.2% 98%  
170 0.1% 98%  
171 0.1% 98%  
172 0.5% 98%  
173 0.4% 98%  
174 0.5% 97%  
175 1.3% 97%  
176 0.2% 95%  
177 0.3% 95%  
178 0.5% 95%  
179 1.3% 94%  
180 3% 93%  
181 2% 90%  
182 0.6% 89%  
183 5% 88%  
184 0.7% 83%  
185 4% 82%  
186 3% 78%  
187 7% 75%  
188 5% 68%  
189 1.1% 62%  
190 2% 61%  
191 1.1% 60%  
192 2% 59%  
193 0.5% 57%  
194 1.0% 56%  
195 6% 55% Median
196 0.7% 49%  
197 1.1% 48%  
198 2% 47%  
199 1.4% 45%  
200 2% 44%  
201 1.0% 42%  
202 5% 41%  
203 0.4% 37%  
204 3% 36%  
205 4% 33%  
206 2% 29%  
207 5% 27%  
208 5% 22%  
209 2% 17%  
210 0.5% 15%  
211 0.1% 15%  
212 1.1% 15%  
213 0.7% 14%  
214 2% 13%  
215 1.1% 11%  
216 0.8% 10%  
217 1.3% 9%  
218 2% 8%  
219 0.9% 6%  
220 0.2% 5%  
221 0.9% 5%  
222 0.2% 4%  
223 0.8% 4%  
224 0.5% 3%  
225 0.5% 2%  
226 0.2% 2%  
227 0.1% 2%  
228 0.3% 2%  
229 0.3% 1.2%  
230 0.1% 0.9%  
231 0.1% 0.8%  
232 0.1% 0.7%  
233 0.1% 0.6%  
234 0.1% 0.5%  
235 0.1% 0.5%  
236 0.1% 0.4%  
237 0% 0.3%  
238 0% 0.3%  
239 0% 0.2%  
240 0% 0.2%  
241 0.1% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations