Opinion Poll by BMG Research for The Independent, 4–6 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 41.1% 39.5–42.7% 39.1–43.2% 38.7–43.6% 37.9–44.4%
Labour Party 41.0% 32.1% 30.6–33.7% 30.2–34.1% 29.8–34.5% 29.1–35.2%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 14.0% 12.9–15.2% 12.6–15.5% 12.4–15.8% 11.9–16.4%
Green Party 1.7% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
Brexit Party 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%
Change UK 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 343 324–360 317–368 314–371 305–379
Labour Party 262 212 199–232 194–238 187–240 183–252
Liberal Democrats 12 35 32–38 31–41 31–43 30–47
Green Party 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 35 40 31–45 22–48 17–50 6–50
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0% 99.7%  
303 0.1% 99.7%  
304 0.1% 99.7%  
305 0.1% 99.5%  
306 0.3% 99.5%  
307 0.3% 99.2%  
308 0.2% 99.0%  
309 0.1% 98.8%  
310 0.1% 98.7%  
311 0.8% 98.7%  
312 0.2% 98%  
313 0% 98%  
314 0.8% 98%  
315 0.7% 97%  
316 0.3% 96%  
317 2% 96% Last Result
318 0.3% 94%  
319 0.1% 94%  
320 0.2% 94%  
321 0.5% 94%  
322 2% 93%  
323 0.5% 91%  
324 2% 90%  
325 0.9% 88%  
326 11% 88% Majority
327 0.3% 77%  
328 1.3% 77%  
329 0.6% 75%  
330 0.2% 75%  
331 0.7% 75%  
332 2% 74%  
333 1.1% 72%  
334 0.5% 71%  
335 0.6% 70%  
336 4% 70%  
337 0.8% 65%  
338 2% 65%  
339 0.4% 63%  
340 0.6% 63%  
341 7% 62%  
342 4% 54%  
343 0.8% 50% Median
344 0.8% 49%  
345 0.7% 49%  
346 0.5% 48%  
347 0.6% 47%  
348 2% 47%  
349 11% 45%  
350 0.8% 34%  
351 0.6% 33%  
352 2% 32%  
353 3% 30%  
354 2% 28%  
355 2% 26%  
356 0.3% 24%  
357 1.0% 24%  
358 0.8% 23%  
359 12% 22%  
360 0.7% 10%  
361 0.2% 9%  
362 0.9% 9%  
363 0.5% 8%  
364 0.1% 8%  
365 0.5% 8%  
366 0.1% 7%  
367 2% 7%  
368 0.4% 5%  
369 1.2% 5%  
370 0.3% 4%  
371 1.3% 3%  
372 0.2% 2%  
373 0.2% 2%  
374 0.2% 2%  
375 0.2% 1.4%  
376 0.3% 1.2%  
377 0% 0.8%  
378 0% 0.8%  
379 0.3% 0.8%  
380 0.2% 0.5%  
381 0% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.9%  
181 0.1% 99.9%  
182 0.1% 99.8%  
183 0.4% 99.7%  
184 0.1% 99.3%  
185 0.2% 99.2%  
186 0.4% 99.0%  
187 1.1% 98.5%  
188 1.1% 97%  
189 0.1% 96%  
190 0.1% 96%  
191 0.3% 96%  
192 0.3% 96%  
193 0.3% 96%  
194 1.1% 95%  
195 2% 94%  
196 0.1% 93%  
197 0.3% 92%  
198 0.3% 92%  
199 2% 92%  
200 2% 90%  
201 0.7% 88%  
202 0.6% 87%  
203 0.5% 87%  
204 0.3% 86%  
205 0.6% 86%  
206 15% 85%  
207 3% 70%  
208 0.6% 67%  
209 13% 66%  
210 2% 53%  
211 1.0% 52%  
212 0.7% 51% Median
213 5% 50%  
214 0.2% 45%  
215 0.3% 45%  
216 0.2% 45%  
217 1.5% 44%  
218 12% 43%  
219 2% 31%  
220 0.2% 29%  
221 0.5% 29%  
222 0.2% 28%  
223 0.6% 28%  
224 10% 28%  
225 0.8% 17%  
226 0.9% 16%  
227 1.3% 16%  
228 0.6% 14%  
229 0.5% 14%  
230 2% 13%  
231 1.4% 12%  
232 0.3% 10%  
233 0.6% 10%  
234 0.4% 9%  
235 0.7% 9%  
236 2% 8%  
237 0.8% 6%  
238 0.2% 5%  
239 0.8% 5%  
240 2% 4%  
241 0% 2%  
242 0.2% 2%  
243 0.2% 2%  
244 0.1% 2%  
245 0.1% 2%  
246 0.1% 2%  
247 0.8% 2%  
248 0% 0.9%  
249 0.2% 0.9%  
250 0.1% 0.7%  
251 0% 0.5%  
252 0.3% 0.5%  
253 0% 0.2%  
254 0.1% 0.2%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1% Last Result
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.9%  
31 5% 99.3%  
32 15% 94%  
33 21% 79%  
34 0.7% 58%  
35 8% 57% Median
36 16% 49%  
37 18% 33%  
38 5% 15%  
39 3% 10%  
40 1.0% 7%  
41 2% 6%  
42 1.1% 4%  
43 1.0% 3%  
44 0.8% 2%  
45 0.4% 1.5%  
46 0.2% 1.1%  
47 0.6% 0.9%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 90% 100% Last Result, Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0.7% 0.7%  
4 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 0.1% 99.8%  
6 0.4% 99.7%  
7 0% 99.3%  
8 0% 99.3%  
9 0% 99.3%  
10 0% 99.3%  
11 0.1% 99.2%  
12 0% 99.1%  
13 0% 99.1%  
14 0.1% 99.1%  
15 0.2% 99.0%  
16 0.4% 98.7%  
17 1.1% 98%  
18 0.3% 97%  
19 0.2% 97%  
20 0.4% 97%  
21 0.1% 96%  
22 2% 96%  
23 1.1% 95%  
24 0.1% 94%  
25 0.4% 94%  
26 2% 93%  
27 0.1% 91%  
28 0.8% 91%  
29 0% 90%  
30 0.1% 90%  
31 1.1% 90%  
32 1.2% 89%  
33 18% 88%  
34 3% 70%  
35 8% 67% Last Result
36 2% 60%  
37 1.2% 58%  
38 4% 57%  
39 2% 53%  
40 4% 51% Median
41 24% 47%  
42 2% 24%  
43 2% 22%  
44 0% 20%  
45 11% 20%  
46 0% 9%  
47 2% 9%  
48 3% 7%  
49 0% 4%  
50 3% 4%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Median
1 8% 26%  
2 1.1% 18%  
3 13% 16%  
4 4% 4% Last Result
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 383 100% 362–398 353–404 351–408 340–414
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 378 100% 360–394 354–402 352–407 343–414
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 378 100% 360–394 354–402 352–407 343–414
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 383 99.9% 359–396 352–401 350–407 339–413
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 344 89% 324–362 318–368 314–372 307–380
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 343 88% 324–360 317–368 314–371 305–379
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 343 88% 324–360 317–368 314–371 305–379
Conservative Party 317 343 88% 324–360 317–368 314–371 305–379
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 314 289 0.8% 272–308 264–315 261–318 253–327
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 288 0.5% 271–307 263–314 260–317 252–326
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 287 0.3% 269–307 262–313 259–317 251–324
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 248 0% 235–271 230–278 224–281 218–292
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 248 0% 232–269 227–277 223–280 217–291
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 248 0% 232–269 227–277 223–280 217–291
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 253 0% 237–271 228–277 224–279 217–287
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 251 0% 235–270 228–275 223–279 216–286
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 213 0% 200–234 195–239 189–242 183–252
Labour Party – Change UK 262 212 0% 199–232 194–238 187–240 183–252
Labour Party 262 212 0% 199–232 194–238 187–240 183–252

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.2% 99.7%  
341 0.1% 99.5%  
342 0.3% 99.4%  
343 0% 99.1%  
344 0.1% 99.1%  
345 0.9% 99.0%  
346 0% 98%  
347 0.1% 98%  
348 0% 98%  
349 0.2% 98%  
350 0.2% 98%  
351 0.5% 98%  
352 0.2% 97%  
353 2% 97%  
354 0.7% 95%  
355 0.3% 94%  
356 0.1% 94% Last Result
357 1.4% 94%  
358 1.4% 92%  
359 0.5% 91%  
360 0.3% 91%  
361 0.2% 90%  
362 0.6% 90%  
363 0.5% 89%  
364 2% 89%  
365 1.1% 87%  
366 0.9% 86%  
367 0.6% 85%  
368 2% 85%  
369 0.9% 83%  
370 0.5% 82%  
371 9% 81%  
372 0.4% 72%  
373 0.3% 72%  
374 0.4% 72%  
375 1.5% 71%  
376 9% 70%  
377 0.8% 60%  
378 1.5% 59%  
379 1.0% 58%  
380 2% 57%  
381 2% 55%  
382 0.4% 54%  
383 5% 53% Median
384 1.1% 49%  
385 0.6% 48%  
386 0.2% 47%  
387 2% 47%  
388 2% 44%  
389 1.0% 42%  
390 12% 41%  
391 2% 29%  
392 13% 27%  
393 1.0% 14%  
394 1.3% 13%  
395 0.3% 12%  
396 0.4% 11%  
397 0.6% 11%  
398 0.5% 10%  
399 1.3% 10%  
400 1.2% 9%  
401 2% 7%  
402 0.2% 5%  
403 0.1% 5%  
404 1.0% 5%  
405 0.9% 4%  
406 0.3% 3%  
407 0.2% 3%  
408 0.6% 3%  
409 0.3% 2%  
410 0.5% 2%  
411 0.2% 1.4%  
412 0.2% 1.1%  
413 0.3% 0.9%  
414 0.2% 0.6%  
415 0.2% 0.5%  
416 0.1% 0.3%  
417 0.1% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.8%  
341 0.1% 99.8%  
342 0% 99.6%  
343 0.3% 99.6%  
344 0% 99.3%  
345 0% 99.3%  
346 0.1% 99.3%  
347 0.3% 99.2%  
348 0.5% 98.9%  
349 0.2% 98%  
350 0.1% 98%  
351 0.6% 98%  
352 1.0% 98%  
353 1.4% 97%  
354 0.3% 95%  
355 0.3% 95%  
356 0.3% 95%  
357 0.4% 94%  
358 2% 94%  
359 0.5% 92%  
360 2% 92%  
361 1.0% 90%  
362 8% 89%  
363 2% 80%  
364 2% 78%  
365 2% 76%  
366 0.8% 74%  
367 0.9% 74%  
368 0.3% 73%  
369 0.7% 72%  
370 0.2% 72%  
371 3% 72%  
372 1.1% 69%  
373 3% 68%  
374 0.7% 65%  
375 0.7% 64%  
376 2% 64%  
377 6% 62%  
378 7% 57% Median
379 0.7% 49%  
380 1.1% 49%  
381 11% 47%  
382 0.4% 36%  
383 0.5% 36%  
384 3% 35%  
385 0.4% 32%  
386 2% 32%  
387 0.8% 30%  
388 0.2% 29%  
389 0.7% 29%  
390 0.4% 29%  
391 2% 28%  
392 14% 26%  
393 1.3% 12%  
394 0.5% 10%  
395 0.7% 10%  
396 0.5% 9%  
397 0.2% 8%  
398 2% 8%  
399 0.4% 6%  
400 0.3% 6%  
401 0.4% 6%  
402 0.4% 5%  
403 0.7% 5%  
404 1.1% 4%  
405 0.2% 3%  
406 0.3% 3%  
407 0.9% 3%  
408 0.6% 2%  
409 0.2% 1.2%  
410 0% 1.0%  
411 0.3% 1.0%  
412 0% 0.7%  
413 0.1% 0.7%  
414 0.1% 0.6%  
415 0.3% 0.5%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.8%  
341 0.1% 99.8%  
342 0% 99.6%  
343 0.3% 99.6%  
344 0% 99.3%  
345 0% 99.3%  
346 0.1% 99.3%  
347 0.3% 99.2%  
348 0.5% 98.9%  
349 0.2% 98%  
350 0.1% 98%  
351 0.6% 98%  
352 1.0% 98%  
353 1.4% 97%  
354 0.3% 95%  
355 0.3% 95%  
356 0.3% 95%  
357 0.4% 94%  
358 2% 94%  
359 0.5% 92%  
360 2% 92%  
361 1.0% 90%  
362 8% 89%  
363 2% 80%  
364 2% 78%  
365 2% 76%  
366 0.8% 74%  
367 0.9% 74%  
368 0.3% 73%  
369 0.7% 72%  
370 0.2% 72%  
371 3% 72%  
372 1.1% 69%  
373 3% 68%  
374 0.7% 65%  
375 0.7% 64%  
376 2% 64%  
377 6% 62%  
378 7% 57% Median
379 0.7% 49%  
380 1.1% 49%  
381 11% 47%  
382 0.4% 36%  
383 0.5% 36%  
384 3% 35%  
385 0.4% 32%  
386 2% 32%  
387 0.8% 30%  
388 0.2% 29%  
389 0.7% 29%  
390 0.4% 29%  
391 2% 28%  
392 14% 26%  
393 1.3% 12%  
394 0.5% 10%  
395 0.7% 10%  
396 0.5% 9%  
397 0.2% 8%  
398 2% 8%  
399 0.4% 6%  
400 0.3% 6%  
401 0.4% 6%  
402 0.4% 5%  
403 0.7% 5%  
404 1.1% 4%  
405 0.2% 3%  
406 0.3% 3%  
407 0.9% 3%  
408 0.6% 2%  
409 0.2% 1.2%  
410 0% 1.0%  
411 0.3% 1.0%  
412 0% 0.7%  
413 0.1% 0.7%  
414 0.1% 0.6%  
415 0.3% 0.5%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9% Majority
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.7%  
339 0.1% 99.6%  
340 0% 99.4%  
341 0% 99.4%  
342 0.3% 99.4%  
343 0.1% 99.0%  
344 0.1% 99.0%  
345 0.8% 98.9%  
346 0.1% 98%  
347 0% 98%  
348 0.2% 98%  
349 0.2% 98%  
350 0.5% 98%  
351 0.3% 97%  
352 2% 97% Last Result
353 0.2% 95%  
354 0.7% 95%  
355 0.3% 94%  
356 2% 94%  
357 0.3% 92%  
358 1.4% 92%  
359 0.5% 90%  
360 0.3% 90%  
361 0.3% 90%  
362 0.9% 89%  
363 2% 88%  
364 0.2% 87%  
365 2% 87%  
366 1.1% 85%  
367 1.3% 84%  
368 0.3% 82%  
369 0.6% 82%  
370 0.6% 81%  
371 9% 81%  
372 0.5% 72%  
373 0.8% 71%  
374 0.5% 70%  
375 2% 70%  
376 10% 68%  
377 0.5% 58%  
378 0.8% 58%  
379 0.9% 57%  
380 1.5% 56%  
381 2% 55%  
382 0.4% 52%  
383 5% 52% Median
384 0.7% 47%  
385 0.8% 47%  
386 0.6% 46%  
387 2% 45%  
388 2% 43%  
389 1.4% 41%  
390 13% 40%  
391 2% 27%  
392 12% 25%  
393 0.5% 13%  
394 1.2% 12%  
395 0.3% 11%  
396 1.2% 11%  
397 1.0% 10%  
398 0.2% 9%  
399 0.4% 8%  
400 1.2% 8%  
401 2% 7%  
402 0.9% 5%  
403 0.2% 4%  
404 0.7% 4%  
405 0.3% 3%  
406 0.2% 3%  
407 0.2% 3%  
408 0.4% 2%  
409 0.3% 2%  
410 0.5% 2%  
411 0.3% 1.1%  
412 0.2% 0.9%  
413 0.3% 0.7%  
414 0.1% 0.4%  
415 0.1% 0.3%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0% 99.7%  
304 0% 99.7%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.1% 99.6%  
307 0.4% 99.5%  
308 0.2% 99.2%  
309 0.2% 99.0%  
310 0.1% 98.8%  
311 0.1% 98.8%  
312 0.6% 98.7%  
313 0.3% 98%  
314 0.9% 98%  
315 0% 97%  
316 0.7% 97%  
317 0.3% 96%  
318 2% 96%  
319 0.2% 94%  
320 0.3% 94%  
321 0.3% 94% Last Result
322 0.9% 94%  
323 2% 93%  
324 1.4% 91%  
325 0.9% 90%  
326 9% 89% Majority
327 2% 80%  
328 1.2% 77%  
329 0.2% 76%  
330 0.6% 76%  
331 0.4% 75%  
332 2% 75%  
333 1.0% 73%  
334 0.8% 72%  
335 0.5% 71%  
336 3% 70%  
337 0.9% 67%  
338 1.3% 66%  
339 2% 65%  
340 0.4% 63%  
341 7% 63%  
342 4% 56%  
343 1.2% 52% Median
344 1.4% 51%  
345 0.7% 49%  
346 0.3% 49%  
347 0.3% 48%  
348 1.5% 48%  
349 11% 47%  
350 1.0% 36%  
351 2% 35%  
352 2% 33%  
353 3% 31%  
354 2% 28%  
355 1.2% 27%  
356 0.2% 26%  
357 0.3% 25%  
358 2% 25%  
359 12% 24%  
360 1.2% 11%  
361 0.2% 10%  
362 1.1% 10%  
363 0.8% 9%  
364 0.2% 8%  
365 0.4% 8%  
366 0.1% 8%  
367 2% 7%  
368 0.3% 5%  
369 0.5% 5%  
370 0.1% 4%  
371 1.3% 4%  
372 0.9% 3%  
373 0.3% 2%  
374 0.2% 2%  
375 0.3% 2%  
376 0.4% 1.5%  
377 0.1% 1.1%  
378 0.1% 0.9%  
379 0.3% 0.9%  
380 0.2% 0.6%  
381 0% 0.4%  
382 0.1% 0.3%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0% 99.7%  
303 0.1% 99.7%  
304 0.1% 99.7%  
305 0.1% 99.5%  
306 0.3% 99.5%  
307 0.3% 99.2%  
308 0.2% 99.0%  
309 0.1% 98.8%  
310 0.1% 98.7%  
311 0.8% 98.7%  
312 0.2% 98%  
313 0% 98%  
314 0.8% 98%  
315 0.7% 97%  
316 0.3% 96%  
317 2% 96% Last Result
318 0.3% 94%  
319 0.1% 94%  
320 0.2% 94%  
321 0.5% 94%  
322 2% 93%  
323 0.5% 91%  
324 2% 90%  
325 0.9% 88%  
326 11% 88% Majority
327 0.3% 77%  
328 1.3% 77%  
329 0.6% 75%  
330 0.2% 75%  
331 0.7% 75%  
332 2% 74%  
333 1.1% 72%  
334 0.5% 71%  
335 0.6% 70%  
336 4% 70%  
337 0.8% 65%  
338 2% 65%  
339 0.4% 63%  
340 0.6% 63%  
341 7% 62%  
342 4% 54%  
343 0.8% 50% Median
344 0.8% 49%  
345 0.7% 49%  
346 0.5% 48%  
347 0.6% 47%  
348 2% 47%  
349 11% 45%  
350 0.8% 34%  
351 0.6% 33%  
352 2% 32%  
353 3% 30%  
354 2% 28%  
355 2% 26%  
356 0.3% 24%  
357 1.0% 24%  
358 0.8% 23%  
359 12% 22%  
360 0.7% 10%  
361 0.2% 9%  
362 0.9% 9%  
363 0.5% 8%  
364 0.1% 8%  
365 0.5% 8%  
366 0.1% 7%  
367 2% 7%  
368 0.4% 5%  
369 1.2% 5%  
370 0.3% 4%  
371 1.3% 3%  
372 0.2% 2%  
373 0.2% 2%  
374 0.2% 2%  
375 0.2% 1.4%  
376 0.3% 1.2%  
377 0% 0.8%  
378 0% 0.8%  
379 0.3% 0.8%  
380 0.2% 0.5%  
381 0% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0% 99.7%  
303 0.1% 99.7%  
304 0.1% 99.7%  
305 0.1% 99.5%  
306 0.3% 99.5%  
307 0.3% 99.2%  
308 0.2% 99.0%  
309 0.1% 98.8%  
310 0.1% 98.7%  
311 0.8% 98.7%  
312 0.2% 98%  
313 0% 98%  
314 0.8% 98%  
315 0.7% 97%  
316 0.3% 96%  
317 2% 96% Last Result
318 0.3% 94%  
319 0.1% 94%  
320 0.2% 94%  
321 0.5% 94%  
322 2% 93%  
323 0.5% 91%  
324 2% 90%  
325 0.9% 88%  
326 11% 88% Majority
327 0.3% 77%  
328 1.3% 77%  
329 0.6% 75%  
330 0.2% 75%  
331 0.7% 75%  
332 2% 74%  
333 1.1% 72%  
334 0.5% 71%  
335 0.6% 70%  
336 4% 70%  
337 0.8% 65%  
338 2% 65%  
339 0.4% 63%  
340 0.6% 63%  
341 7% 62%  
342 4% 54%  
343 0.8% 50% Median
344 0.8% 49%  
345 0.7% 49%  
346 0.5% 48%  
347 0.6% 47%  
348 2% 47%  
349 11% 45%  
350 0.8% 34%  
351 0.6% 33%  
352 2% 32%  
353 3% 30%  
354 2% 28%  
355 2% 26%  
356 0.3% 24%  
357 1.0% 24%  
358 0.8% 23%  
359 12% 22%  
360 0.7% 10%  
361 0.2% 9%  
362 0.9% 9%  
363 0.5% 8%  
364 0.1% 8%  
365 0.5% 8%  
366 0.1% 7%  
367 2% 7%  
368 0.4% 5%  
369 1.2% 5%  
370 0.3% 4%  
371 1.3% 3%  
372 0.2% 2%  
373 0.2% 2%  
374 0.2% 2%  
375 0.2% 1.4%  
376 0.3% 1.2%  
377 0% 0.8%  
378 0% 0.8%  
379 0.3% 0.8%  
380 0.2% 0.5%  
381 0% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0% 99.7%  
303 0.1% 99.7%  
304 0.1% 99.7%  
305 0.1% 99.5%  
306 0.3% 99.5%  
307 0.3% 99.2%  
308 0.2% 99.0%  
309 0.1% 98.8%  
310 0.1% 98.7%  
311 0.8% 98.7%  
312 0.2% 98%  
313 0% 98%  
314 0.8% 98%  
315 0.7% 97%  
316 0.3% 96%  
317 2% 96% Last Result
318 0.3% 94%  
319 0.1% 94%  
320 0.2% 94%  
321 0.5% 94%  
322 2% 93%  
323 0.5% 91%  
324 2% 90%  
325 0.9% 88%  
326 11% 88% Majority
327 0.3% 77%  
328 1.3% 77%  
329 0.6% 75%  
330 0.2% 75%  
331 0.7% 75%  
332 2% 74%  
333 1.1% 72%  
334 0.5% 71%  
335 0.6% 70%  
336 4% 70%  
337 0.8% 65%  
338 2% 65%  
339 0.4% 63%  
340 0.6% 63%  
341 7% 62%  
342 4% 54%  
343 0.8% 50% Median
344 0.8% 49%  
345 0.7% 49%  
346 0.5% 48%  
347 0.6% 47%  
348 2% 47%  
349 11% 45%  
350 0.8% 34%  
351 0.6% 33%  
352 2% 32%  
353 3% 30%  
354 2% 28%  
355 2% 26%  
356 0.3% 24%  
357 1.0% 24%  
358 0.8% 23%  
359 12% 22%  
360 0.7% 10%  
361 0.2% 9%  
362 0.9% 9%  
363 0.5% 8%  
364 0.1% 8%  
365 0.5% 8%  
366 0.1% 7%  
367 2% 7%  
368 0.4% 5%  
369 1.2% 5%  
370 0.3% 4%  
371 1.3% 3%  
372 0.2% 2%  
373 0.2% 2%  
374 0.2% 2%  
375 0.2% 1.4%  
376 0.3% 1.2%  
377 0% 0.8%  
378 0% 0.8%  
379 0.3% 0.8%  
380 0.2% 0.5%  
381 0% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0.2% 99.7%  
253 0.3% 99.5%  
254 0% 99.2%  
255 0% 99.2%  
256 0.3% 99.2%  
257 0.2% 98.8%  
258 0.2% 98.6%  
259 0.2% 98%  
260 0.2% 98%  
261 1.3% 98%  
262 0.3% 97%  
263 1.2% 96%  
264 0.4% 95%  
265 2% 95%  
266 0.1% 93%  
267 0.5% 93%  
268 0.1% 92%  
269 0.5% 92%  
270 0.9% 92%  
271 0.2% 91%  
272 0.7% 91%  
273 12% 90%  
274 0.8% 78%  
275 1.0% 77%  
276 0.3% 76%  
277 2% 76%  
278 2% 74%  
279 3% 72%  
280 2% 70%  
281 0.6% 68%  
282 0.8% 67%  
283 11% 66%  
284 2% 55%  
285 0.6% 53%  
286 0.5% 53%  
287 0.7% 52%  
288 0.8% 51% Median
289 0.8% 51%  
290 4% 50%  
291 7% 46%  
292 0.6% 38%  
293 0.4% 37%  
294 2% 37%  
295 0.8% 35%  
296 4% 35%  
297 0.6% 30%  
298 0.5% 30%  
299 1.1% 29%  
300 2% 28%  
301 0.7% 26%  
302 0.2% 25%  
303 0.6% 25%  
304 1.3% 25%  
305 0.3% 23%  
306 11% 23%  
307 0.9% 12%  
308 2% 12%  
309 0.5% 10%  
310 2% 9%  
311 0.5% 7%  
312 0.2% 6%  
313 0.1% 6%  
314 0.3% 6% Last Result
315 2% 6%  
316 0.3% 4%  
317 0.7% 4%  
318 0.8% 3%  
319 0% 2%  
320 0.2% 2%  
321 0.8% 2%  
322 0.1% 1.3%  
323 0.1% 1.3%  
324 0.2% 1.2%  
325 0.3% 1.0%  
326 0.3% 0.8% Majority
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.5%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0% 0.3%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0.1% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0.2% 99.7%  
252 0.3% 99.5%  
253 0% 99.2%  
254 0% 99.2%  
255 0.4% 99.2%  
256 0.2% 98.8%  
257 0.2% 98.6%  
258 0.2% 98%  
259 0.2% 98%  
260 1.3% 98%  
261 0.5% 97%  
262 0.9% 96%  
263 0.3% 95%  
264 2% 95%  
265 0.1% 93%  
266 0.5% 93%  
267 0.1% 92%  
268 0.5% 92%  
269 1.0% 92%  
270 0.1% 91%  
271 0.7% 91%  
272 12% 90%  
273 0.8% 78%  
274 1.1% 77%  
275 0.3% 76%  
276 2% 75%  
277 2% 74%  
278 2% 72%  
279 2% 69%  
280 0.6% 67%  
281 0.9% 67%  
282 11% 66%  
283 2% 55%  
284 0.8% 53%  
285 0.3% 52%  
286 0.7% 52%  
287 0.8% 51% Median
288 0.8% 51%  
289 4% 50%  
290 7% 45%  
291 0.8% 38%  
292 0.1% 37%  
293 2% 37%  
294 0.8% 35%  
295 4% 35%  
296 0.5% 30%  
297 1.0% 30%  
298 0.7% 29%  
299 2% 28%  
300 0.7% 26%  
301 0.3% 25%  
302 0.7% 25%  
303 1.2% 24%  
304 2% 23%  
305 8% 21%  
306 0.9% 12%  
307 2% 11%  
308 2% 10%  
309 1.3% 8%  
310 0.4% 7%  
311 0.2% 6%  
312 0.2% 6%  
313 0.3% 6% Last Result
314 2% 6%  
315 0.8% 4%  
316 0.2% 3%  
317 0.7% 3%  
318 0% 2%  
319 0.7% 2%  
320 0.4% 2%  
321 0.1% 1.3%  
322 0.1% 1.2%  
323 0.3% 1.2%  
324 0.4% 0.9%  
325 0% 0.5%  
326 0.1% 0.5% Majority
327 0% 0.4%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.3%  
330 0.1% 0.3%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0.1% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.7%  
251 0.2% 99.6%  
252 0.3% 99.4%  
253 0.1% 99.1%  
254 0.1% 99.1%  
255 0.4% 98.9%  
256 0.3% 98%  
257 0.2% 98%  
258 0.3% 98%  
259 0.9% 98%  
260 1.3% 97%  
261 0.4% 96%  
262 0.2% 95%  
263 0.3% 95%  
264 2% 95%  
265 0.2% 93%  
266 0.4% 92%  
267 0.2% 92%  
268 0.8% 92%  
269 1.2% 91%  
270 0.1% 90%  
271 1.2% 90%  
272 12% 88%  
273 2% 76%  
274 0.4% 75%  
275 0.3% 74%  
276 1.0% 74%  
277 2% 73%  
278 3% 71%  
279 2% 69%  
280 2% 67%  
281 1.4% 65%  
282 11% 64%  
283 1.5% 53%  
284 0.3% 52%  
285 0.3% 51%  
286 0.6% 51%  
287 1.3% 51% Median
288 1.2% 49%  
289 4% 48%  
290 7% 44%  
291 0.6% 37%  
292 1.4% 36%  
293 1.4% 35%  
294 1.1% 34%  
295 3% 33%  
296 0.6% 30%  
297 1.4% 29%  
298 0.5% 28%  
299 2% 27%  
300 0.5% 25%  
301 0.4% 24%  
302 0.2% 24%  
303 3% 24%  
304 0.6% 21%  
305 9% 20%  
306 0.9% 11%  
307 3% 10%  
308 0.5% 8%  
309 0.9% 7% Last Result
310 0.3% 6%  
311 0.3% 6%  
312 0.1% 6%  
313 2% 6%  
314 0.7% 4%  
315 0.2% 3%  
316 0% 3%  
317 0.9% 3%  
318 0.7% 2%  
319 0.1% 1.4%  
320 0.1% 1.3%  
321 0% 1.2%  
322 0.3% 1.2%  
323 0.2% 0.9%  
324 0.1% 0.6%  
325 0.1% 0.5%  
326 0% 0.3% Majority
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0.1% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0.1% 99.8%  
217 0.1% 99.7%  
218 0.3% 99.6%  
219 0.2% 99.3%  
220 0.5% 99.1%  
221 0.3% 98.6%  
222 0.2% 98%  
223 0.4% 98%  
224 0.1% 98%  
225 0.2% 97%  
226 0.3% 97%  
227 0.6% 97%  
228 0.3% 96%  
229 0.8% 96%  
230 2% 95%  
231 1.2% 93%  
232 0.5% 92%  
233 0.1% 92%  
234 1.0% 91%  
235 1.1% 90%  
236 0.4% 89%  
237 1.2% 89%  
238 0.4% 88%  
239 12% 87%  
240 2% 75%  
241 13% 73%  
242 1.4% 60%  
243 2% 59%  
244 2% 57%  
245 0.6% 55%  
246 0.9% 54%  
247 0.6% 53% Median
248 5% 53%  
249 0.4% 48%  
250 2% 48%  
251 1.5% 45%  
252 0.9% 44%  
253 0.9% 43%  
254 0.6% 42%  
255 10% 41%  
256 2% 32%  
257 0.5% 30%  
258 0.8% 29%  
259 0.7% 29%  
260 9% 28%  
261 0.4% 19%  
262 0.6% 19%  
263 0.4% 18%  
264 2% 18%  
265 0.8% 16%  
266 2% 15%  
267 2% 13%  
268 0.8% 12%  
269 0.4% 11%  
270 0.3% 11%  
271 0.4% 10%  
272 0.4% 10%  
273 2% 10%  
274 1.4% 8%  
275 0.4% 7%  
276 0.3% 6%  
277 0.7% 6%  
278 2% 5% Last Result
279 0.1% 3%  
280 0.4% 3%  
281 0.5% 3%  
282 0.2% 2%  
283 0.1% 2%  
284 0.1% 2%  
285 0.1% 2%  
286 0.8% 2%  
287 0.1% 1.1%  
288 0.1% 1.0%  
289 0.3% 0.9%  
290 0% 0.6%  
291 0% 0.6%  
292 0.1% 0.5%  
293 0.1% 0.4%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
211 0% 100%  
212 0.1% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0.1% 99.9%  
215 0.1% 99.8%  
216 0.2% 99.7%  
217 0.2% 99.5%  
218 0.3% 99.4%  
219 0.2% 99.0%  
220 0.5% 98.9%  
221 0.3% 98%  
222 0.3% 98%  
223 0.6% 98%  
224 0.1% 97%  
225 0.3% 97%  
226 0.9% 97%  
227 1.0% 96%  
228 0.2% 95%  
229 0.2% 95%  
230 2% 94%  
231 1.3% 93%  
232 1.3% 91%  
233 0.4% 90%  
234 0.7% 90%  
235 0.4% 89%  
236 0.4% 89%  
237 1.2% 88%  
238 1.0% 87%  
239 13% 86%  
240 2% 73%  
241 12% 71%  
242 1.0% 59%  
243 2% 58%  
244 2% 56%  
245 0.3% 53%  
246 0.5% 53%  
247 1.1% 52% Median
248 5% 51%  
249 0.5% 47%  
250 2% 46%  
251 2% 45%  
252 0.9% 43%  
253 1.4% 42%  
254 0.8% 40%  
255 9% 40%  
256 1.5% 30%  
257 0.4% 29%  
258 0.3% 28%  
259 0.7% 28%  
260 9% 27%  
261 0.5% 18%  
262 0.8% 18%  
263 2% 17%  
264 1.1% 15%  
265 0.3% 14%  
266 2% 14%  
267 0.6% 11%  
268 0.7% 11%  
269 0.1% 10%  
270 0.2% 10%  
271 0.3% 10%  
272 0.5% 9%  
273 3% 9%  
274 0.1% 6% Last Result
275 0.3% 6%  
276 0.1% 6%  
277 3% 6%  
278 0.2% 3%  
279 0.2% 3%  
280 0.5% 3%  
281 0.1% 2%  
282 0.2% 2%  
283 0.1% 2%  
284 0% 2%  
285 0% 2%  
286 0.9% 2%  
287 0.1% 1.0%  
288 0% 0.9%  
289 0.3% 0.9%  
290 0% 0.6%  
291 0.2% 0.5%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
211 0% 100%  
212 0.1% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0.1% 99.9%  
215 0.1% 99.8%  
216 0.2% 99.7%  
217 0.2% 99.5%  
218 0.3% 99.4%  
219 0.2% 99.0%  
220 0.5% 98.9%  
221 0.3% 98%  
222 0.3% 98%  
223 0.6% 98%  
224 0.1% 97%  
225 0.3% 97%  
226 0.9% 97%  
227 1.0% 96%  
228 0.2% 95%  
229 0.2% 95%  
230 2% 94%  
231 1.3% 93%  
232 1.3% 91%  
233 0.4% 90%  
234 0.7% 90%  
235 0.4% 89%  
236 0.4% 89%  
237 1.2% 88%  
238 1.0% 87%  
239 13% 86%  
240 2% 73%  
241 12% 71%  
242 1.0% 59%  
243 2% 58%  
244 2% 56%  
245 0.3% 53%  
246 0.5% 53%  
247 1.1% 52% Median
248 5% 51%  
249 0.5% 47%  
250 2% 46%  
251 2% 45%  
252 0.9% 43%  
253 1.4% 42%  
254 0.8% 40%  
255 9% 40%  
256 1.5% 30%  
257 0.4% 29%  
258 0.3% 28%  
259 0.7% 28%  
260 9% 27%  
261 0.5% 18%  
262 0.8% 18%  
263 2% 17%  
264 1.1% 15%  
265 0.3% 14%  
266 2% 14%  
267 0.6% 11%  
268 0.7% 11%  
269 0.1% 10%  
270 0.2% 10%  
271 0.3% 10%  
272 0.5% 9%  
273 3% 9%  
274 0.1% 6% Last Result
275 0.3% 6%  
276 0.1% 6%  
277 3% 6%  
278 0.2% 3%  
279 0.2% 3%  
280 0.5% 3%  
281 0.1% 2%  
282 0.2% 2%  
283 0.1% 2%  
284 0% 2%  
285 0% 2%  
286 0.9% 2%  
287 0.1% 1.0%  
288 0% 0.9%  
289 0.3% 0.9%  
290 0% 0.6%  
291 0.2% 0.5%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0.1% 99.9%  
216 0.3% 99.8%  
217 0.1% 99.5%  
218 0.1% 99.4%  
219 0% 99.3%  
220 0.3% 99.3%  
221 0.1% 99.0%  
222 0.2% 99.0%  
223 0.6% 98.8%  
224 0.9% 98%  
225 0.3% 97%  
226 0.2% 97%  
227 1.1% 97%  
228 1.0% 96%  
229 0.1% 95%  
230 0.4% 95%  
231 0.3% 94%  
232 0.4% 94%  
233 2% 94%  
234 0.2% 92%  
235 0.5% 92%  
236 0.8% 91%  
237 0.6% 90%  
238 1.3% 90%  
239 14% 88%  
240 2% 74%  
241 0.2% 71%  
242 0.6% 71%  
243 0.2% 71%  
244 0.8% 70%  
245 2% 70%  
246 0.5% 68%  
247 3% 67%  
248 0.5% 65%  
249 0.4% 64%  
250 11% 64%  
251 1.1% 53%  
252 1.0% 51% Median
253 7% 50%  
254 6% 43%  
255 2% 38%  
256 0.9% 36%  
257 0.4% 35%  
258 3% 35%  
259 2% 32%  
260 2% 30%  
261 0.2% 28%  
262 0.8% 28%  
263 0.1% 27%  
264 1.0% 27%  
265 0.8% 26%  
266 2% 26%  
267 4% 24%  
268 0.4% 20%  
269 8% 20%  
270 0.9% 11%  
271 2% 10%  
272 2% 8%  
273 0.3% 6%  
274 0.4% 6%  
275 0.2% 6%  
276 0.4% 5%  
277 0.2% 5%  
278 1.4% 5%  
279 1.5% 3%  
280 0.1% 2%  
281 0.1% 2%  
282 0.6% 2%  
283 0.2% 1.2%  
284 0.2% 1.0%  
285 0.1% 0.8%  
286 0% 0.7%  
287 0.3% 0.7%  
288 0% 0.4%  
289 0.1% 0.4%  
290 0% 0.3%  
291 0.1% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0.1% 99.8%  
215 0.1% 99.8%  
216 0.3% 99.7%  
217 0.1% 99.4%  
218 0% 99.3%  
219 0.2% 99.3%  
220 0.4% 99.0%  
221 0.8% 98.6%  
222 0.3% 98%  
223 0.4% 98%  
224 0.2% 97%  
225 0.2% 97%  
226 0.2% 97%  
227 1.1% 97%  
228 1.1% 96%  
229 0.4% 94%  
230 0.3% 94%  
231 0.5% 94%  
232 0.1% 93%  
233 2% 93%  
234 0.7% 91%  
235 0.6% 90%  
236 2% 90%  
237 0.5% 88%  
238 1.2% 87%  
239 13% 86%  
240 2% 73%  
241 0.3% 71%  
242 0.6% 71%  
243 0.5% 70%  
244 0.8% 70%  
245 2% 69%  
246 0.6% 67%  
247 3% 67%  
248 0.6% 63%  
249 0.5% 63%  
250 11% 62%  
251 2% 51%  
252 1.2% 49% Median
253 7% 48%  
254 4% 41%  
255 1.2% 36%  
256 0.5% 35%  
257 0.5% 35%  
258 3% 34%  
259 2% 31%  
260 2% 29%  
261 1.0% 28%  
262 0.6% 27%  
263 0.6% 26%  
264 0.7% 26%  
265 0.9% 25%  
266 3% 24%  
267 1.4% 21%  
268 0.4% 19%  
269 9% 19%  
270 0.9% 10%  
271 3% 9%  
272 0.5% 6%  
273 0.1% 6%  
274 0.3% 6%  
275 0.5% 5%  
276 0.3% 5%  
277 1.2% 4%  
278 0.7% 3%  
279 0.7% 3%  
280 0.1% 2%  
281 0.5% 2%  
282 0.4% 1.3%  
283 0.1% 0.9%  
284 0.1% 0.8%  
285 0.1% 0.7%  
286 0.3% 0.6%  
287 0% 0.4%  
288 0.2% 0.4%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0.1% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
180 0% 100%  
181 0.1% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.8%  
183 0.4% 99.8%  
184 0.1% 99.4%  
185 0.1% 99.3%  
186 0.2% 99.2%  
187 0.8% 99.0%  
188 0.5% 98%  
189 0.2% 98%  
190 0.4% 97%  
191 1.0% 97%  
192 0.3% 96%  
193 0.1% 96%  
194 0.2% 96%  
195 0.7% 95%  
196 0.1% 95%  
197 1.0% 95%  
198 1.4% 94%  
199 2% 92%  
200 1.0% 90%  
201 0.4% 89%  
202 0.5% 89%  
203 1.2% 89%  
204 0.6% 87%  
205 0.3% 87%  
206 14% 86%  
207 3% 72%  
208 0.3% 69%  
209 14% 69%  
210 2% 54%  
211 1.3% 52%  
212 0.2% 51% Median
213 4% 51%  
214 0.2% 46%  
215 0.6% 46%  
216 0.9% 46%  
217 1.3% 45%  
218 11% 43%  
219 2% 33%  
220 0.4% 31%  
221 1.4% 30%  
222 0.1% 29%  
223 0.4% 29%  
224 10% 28%  
225 0.6% 19%  
226 1.0% 18%  
227 0.2% 17%  
228 2% 17%  
229 0.4% 15%  
230 0.7% 14%  
231 2% 13%  
232 0.1% 11%  
233 0.5% 11%  
234 1.1% 11%  
235 0.6% 9%  
236 2% 9%  
237 1.2% 7%  
238 0.8% 6%  
239 0.9% 5%  
240 0.2% 4%  
241 2% 4%  
242 0.3% 3%  
243 0.2% 2%  
244 0.2% 2%  
245 0.1% 2%  
246 0% 2%  
247 0.8% 2%  
248 0.1% 1.0%  
249 0% 0.9%  
250 0.1% 0.9%  
251 0.1% 0.8%  
252 0.5% 0.7%  
253 0% 0.2%  
254 0.1% 0.2%  
255 0% 0.2%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1% Last Result
267 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.9%  
181 0.1% 99.9%  
182 0.1% 99.8%  
183 0.4% 99.7%  
184 0.1% 99.3%  
185 0.2% 99.2%  
186 0.4% 99.0%  
187 1.1% 98.5%  
188 1.1% 97%  
189 0.1% 96%  
190 0.1% 96%  
191 0.3% 96%  
192 0.3% 96%  
193 0.3% 96%  
194 1.1% 95%  
195 2% 94%  
196 0.1% 93%  
197 0.3% 92%  
198 0.3% 92%  
199 2% 92%  
200 2% 90%  
201 0.7% 88%  
202 0.6% 87%  
203 0.5% 87%  
204 0.3% 86%  
205 0.6% 86%  
206 15% 85%  
207 3% 70%  
208 0.6% 67%  
209 13% 66%  
210 2% 53%  
211 1.0% 52%  
212 0.7% 51% Median
213 5% 50%  
214 0.2% 45%  
215 0.3% 45%  
216 0.2% 45%  
217 1.5% 44%  
218 12% 43%  
219 2% 31%  
220 0.2% 29%  
221 0.5% 29%  
222 0.2% 28%  
223 0.6% 28%  
224 10% 28%  
225 0.8% 17%  
226 0.9% 16%  
227 1.3% 16%  
228 0.6% 14%  
229 0.5% 14%  
230 2% 13%  
231 1.4% 12%  
232 0.3% 10%  
233 0.6% 10%  
234 0.4% 9%  
235 0.7% 9%  
236 2% 8%  
237 0.8% 6%  
238 0.2% 5%  
239 0.8% 5%  
240 2% 4%  
241 0% 2%  
242 0.2% 2%  
243 0.2% 2%  
244 0.1% 2%  
245 0.1% 2%  
246 0.1% 2%  
247 0.8% 2%  
248 0% 0.9%  
249 0.2% 0.9%  
250 0.1% 0.7%  
251 0% 0.5%  
252 0.3% 0.5%  
253 0% 0.2%  
254 0.1% 0.2%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1% Last Result
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.9%  
181 0.1% 99.9%  
182 0.1% 99.8%  
183 0.4% 99.7%  
184 0.1% 99.3%  
185 0.2% 99.2%  
186 0.4% 99.0%  
187 1.1% 98.5%  
188 1.1% 97%  
189 0.1% 96%  
190 0.1% 96%  
191 0.3% 96%  
192 0.3% 96%  
193 0.3% 96%  
194 1.1% 95%  
195 2% 94%  
196 0.1% 93%  
197 0.3% 92%  
198 0.3% 92%  
199 2% 92%  
200 2% 90%  
201 0.7% 88%  
202 0.6% 87%  
203 0.5% 87%  
204 0.3% 86%  
205 0.6% 86%  
206 15% 85%  
207 3% 70%  
208 0.6% 67%  
209 13% 66%  
210 2% 53%  
211 1.0% 52%  
212 0.7% 51% Median
213 5% 50%  
214 0.2% 45%  
215 0.3% 45%  
216 0.2% 45%  
217 1.5% 44%  
218 12% 43%  
219 2% 31%  
220 0.2% 29%  
221 0.5% 29%  
222 0.2% 28%  
223 0.6% 28%  
224 10% 28%  
225 0.8% 17%  
226 0.9% 16%  
227 1.3% 16%  
228 0.6% 14%  
229 0.5% 14%  
230 2% 13%  
231 1.4% 12%  
232 0.3% 10%  
233 0.6% 10%  
234 0.4% 9%  
235 0.7% 9%  
236 2% 8%  
237 0.8% 6%  
238 0.2% 5%  
239 0.8% 5%  
240 2% 4%  
241 0% 2%  
242 0.2% 2%  
243 0.2% 2%  
244 0.1% 2%  
245 0.1% 2%  
246 0.1% 2%  
247 0.8% 2%  
248 0% 0.9%  
249 0.2% 0.9%  
250 0.1% 0.7%  
251 0% 0.5%  
252 0.3% 0.5%  
253 0% 0.2%  
254 0.1% 0.2%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1% Last Result
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations