Opinion Poll by Deltapoll for The Mail on Sunday, 5–7 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 44.4% 42.7–46.0% 42.3–46.5% 41.9–46.9% 41.1–47.6%
Labour Party 41.0% 33.3% 31.7–34.8% 31.3–35.3% 30.9–35.7% 30.2–36.4%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 11.1% 10.1–12.2% 9.8–12.5% 9.6–12.8% 9.2–13.3%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 4.0% 3.5–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 2.9–5.5%
Brexit Party 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Green Party 1.7% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1%
UK Independence Party 1.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 352 331–372 327–375 325–377 316–385
Labour Party 262 206 187–223 186–225 183–227 179–237
Liberal Democrats 12 27 21–30 20–30 19–31 18–32
Scottish National Party 35 47 41–51 41–52 39–54 34–56
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–5

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0.1% 99.7%  
315 0% 99.6%  
316 0.1% 99.6%  
317 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
318 0.1% 99.3%  
319 0.2% 99.2%  
320 0.3% 99.0%  
321 0.3% 98.7%  
322 0.3% 98%  
323 0.3% 98%  
324 0.2% 98%  
325 0.8% 98%  
326 1.0% 97% Majority
327 2% 96%  
328 1.2% 94%  
329 0.3% 93%  
330 2% 92%  
331 0.4% 90%  
332 1.1% 90%  
333 0.3% 89%  
334 1.0% 89%  
335 1.2% 88%  
336 2% 86%  
337 2% 85%  
338 4% 83%  
339 3% 79%  
340 1.1% 77%  
341 0.8% 75%  
342 0.4% 75%  
343 2% 74%  
344 5% 72%  
345 2% 67%  
346 2% 65%  
347 2% 64%  
348 1.0% 61%  
349 2% 60%  
350 3% 58%  
351 3% 55%  
352 5% 52% Median
353 3% 47%  
354 1.1% 45%  
355 3% 44%  
356 2% 41%  
357 4% 39%  
358 1.2% 35%  
359 3% 34%  
360 3% 31%  
361 1.0% 28%  
362 1.0% 27%  
363 1.2% 26%  
364 1.1% 24%  
365 4% 23%  
366 2% 19%  
367 2% 18%  
368 1.4% 16%  
369 2% 15%  
370 0.9% 13%  
371 1.4% 12%  
372 1.5% 11%  
373 2% 9%  
374 0.7% 7%  
375 2% 6%  
376 0.3% 4%  
377 0.9% 3%  
378 0.2% 2%  
379 0.3% 2%  
380 0.5% 2%  
381 0.2% 1.4%  
382 0.2% 1.2%  
383 0.4% 1.1%  
384 0.2% 0.7%  
385 0.1% 0.5%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0.1% 99.9%  
175 0.1% 99.8%  
176 0.1% 99.7%  
177 0% 99.7%  
178 0% 99.7%  
179 0.2% 99.6%  
180 0.3% 99.4%  
181 0.2% 99.1%  
182 0.3% 98.9%  
183 2% 98.6%  
184 0.3% 97%  
185 0.7% 97%  
186 4% 96%  
187 5% 92%  
188 7% 87%  
189 0.5% 80%  
190 0.8% 80%  
191 1.3% 79%  
192 1.5% 78%  
193 1.2% 76%  
194 1.1% 75%  
195 1.2% 74%  
196 1.1% 73%  
197 4% 72%  
198 0.7% 68%  
199 1.5% 67%  
200 0.3% 65%  
201 3% 65%  
202 2% 62%  
203 2% 59%  
204 3% 58%  
205 2% 54%  
206 3% 53% Median
207 2% 49%  
208 10% 47%  
209 3% 38%  
210 4% 35%  
211 3% 31%  
212 0.4% 28%  
213 1.3% 28%  
214 1.2% 26%  
215 0.8% 25%  
216 2% 24%  
217 1.0% 22%  
218 3% 21%  
219 3% 18%  
220 4% 15%  
221 0.7% 12%  
222 0.3% 11%  
223 2% 11%  
224 1.4% 8%  
225 3% 7%  
226 0.6% 4%  
227 0.9% 3%  
228 0.3% 2%  
229 0.3% 2%  
230 0.4% 2%  
231 0.1% 1.4%  
232 0.3% 1.3%  
233 0% 1.0%  
234 0.1% 1.0%  
235 0.1% 0.9%  
236 0.1% 0.8%  
237 0.3% 0.7%  
238 0.2% 0.4%  
239 0.1% 0.2%  
240 0.1% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 0.2% 99.7%  
18 2% 99.6%  
19 2% 98%  
20 3% 96%  
21 4% 94%  
22 6% 90%  
23 3% 84%  
24 3% 81%  
25 4% 77%  
26 12% 73%  
27 13% 61% Median
28 12% 48%  
29 8% 35%  
30 23% 28%  
31 3% 4%  
32 1.2% 1.4%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.1% 99.8%  
34 0.6% 99.8%  
35 0% 99.2% Last Result
36 0.2% 99.2%  
37 1.0% 99.0%  
38 0.3% 98%  
39 1.2% 98%  
40 0.6% 97%  
41 13% 96%  
42 5% 83%  
43 4% 78%  
44 0% 74%  
45 12% 74%  
46 0.7% 61%  
47 13% 61% Median
48 9% 48%  
49 3% 38%  
50 14% 35%  
51 12% 21%  
52 6% 10%  
53 0.4% 3%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.3% 0.9%  
56 0.5% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Median
1 2% 38%  
2 18% 36%  
3 15% 18%  
4 2% 3% Last Result
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 399 100% 381–417 377–421 374–422 367–429
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 399 100% 380–416 376–419 374–422 365–428
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 378 100% 359–398 356–402 352–403 343–410
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 354 98% 332–373 327–375 326–379 317–386
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 352 97% 331–372 327–375 325–377 316–385
Conservative Party 317 352 97% 331–372 327–375 325–377 316–385
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 314 280 0% 260–301 257–305 255–307 247–316
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 279 0% 259–300 256–304 254–306 246–315
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 277 0% 258–299 256–304 252–305 245–314
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 253 0% 233–272 229–275 228–279 221–288
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 252 0% 232–271 228–275 227–277 220–286
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 232 0% 214–250 210–254 209–257 202–264
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 232 0% 215–251 212–255 209–257 203–266
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 208 0% 187–223 186–226 185–228 179–238
Labour Party 262 206 0% 187–223 186–225 183–227 179–237

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100% Last Result
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.9%  
365 0.2% 99.8%  
366 0.1% 99.6%  
367 0.3% 99.5%  
368 0.1% 99.2%  
369 0.1% 99.1%  
370 0.2% 99.0%  
371 0.2% 98.8%  
372 0.2% 98.6%  
373 0.3% 98%  
374 0.9% 98%  
375 0.5% 97%  
376 0.6% 97%  
377 1.4% 96%  
378 2% 95%  
379 0.8% 92%  
380 1.3% 92%  
381 0.8% 90%  
382 0.6% 89%  
383 4% 89%  
384 2% 85%  
385 2% 83%  
386 1.3% 80%  
387 0.9% 79%  
388 0.4% 78%  
389 1.3% 78%  
390 2% 76%  
391 1.4% 74%  
392 1.0% 73%  
393 1.3% 72%  
394 6% 70%  
395 1.3% 64%  
396 3% 63%  
397 5% 59%  
398 2% 54%  
399 4% 52% Median
400 3% 48%  
401 1.0% 45%  
402 2% 44%  
403 2% 43%  
404 4% 41%  
405 3% 37%  
406 2% 34%  
407 1.4% 33%  
408 3% 31%  
409 1.1% 28%  
410 2% 27%  
411 1.2% 25%  
412 1.3% 24%  
413 3% 23%  
414 2% 19%  
415 3% 17%  
416 4% 14%  
417 2% 10%  
418 2% 8%  
419 0.6% 7%  
420 1.0% 6%  
421 1.1% 5%  
422 2% 4%  
423 0.3% 2%  
424 0.5% 2%  
425 0.2% 1.4%  
426 0.4% 1.2%  
427 0.2% 0.8%  
428 0.1% 0.6%  
429 0.1% 0.5%  
430 0.1% 0.4%  
431 0.1% 0.3%  
432 0.1% 0.3%  
433 0% 0.2%  
434 0% 0.2%  
435 0.1% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100% Last Result
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.8%  
364 0.2% 99.8%  
365 0.2% 99.6%  
366 0.1% 99.4%  
367 0.2% 99.3%  
368 0.1% 99.1%  
369 0.1% 99.0%  
370 0.2% 98.9%  
371 0.3% 98.7%  
372 0.3% 98%  
373 0.6% 98%  
374 0.8% 98%  
375 1.2% 97%  
376 0.8% 96%  
377 1.1% 95%  
378 2% 94%  
379 1.2% 92%  
380 1.4% 91%  
381 2% 89%  
382 0.8% 88%  
383 3% 87%  
384 3% 84%  
385 3% 81%  
386 1.0% 78%  
387 1.3% 77%  
388 1.0% 76%  
389 0.4% 75%  
390 2% 75%  
391 2% 73%  
392 3% 71%  
393 2% 68%  
394 5% 66%  
395 5% 61%  
396 3% 56%  
397 1.0% 53%  
398 1.1% 52%  
399 4% 51% Median
400 3% 47%  
401 1.4% 44%  
402 2% 42%  
403 1.2% 40%  
404 5% 39%  
405 2% 34%  
406 1.4% 32%  
407 0.6% 30%  
408 3% 30%  
409 1.3% 27%  
410 2% 25%  
411 1.1% 24%  
412 1.4% 23%  
413 3% 21%  
414 2% 18%  
415 3% 16%  
416 4% 13%  
417 1.2% 9%  
418 2% 8%  
419 1.3% 6%  
420 0.4% 4%  
421 0.4% 4%  
422 1.5% 3%  
423 0.3% 2%  
424 0.5% 2%  
425 0.2% 1.1%  
426 0.4% 0.9%  
427 0% 0.6%  
428 0.1% 0.5%  
429 0.1% 0.4%  
430 0.1% 0.3%  
431 0% 0.2%  
432 0.1% 0.2%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0.1% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0.1% 99.8%  
343 0.2% 99.7%  
344 0.2% 99.5%  
345 0.1% 99.3%  
346 0.2% 99.3%  
347 0.2% 99.1%  
348 0.1% 98.8%  
349 0.2% 98.7%  
350 0.2% 98.5%  
351 0.4% 98%  
352 0.5% 98%  
353 0.9% 97%  
354 0.9% 97%  
355 0.5% 96%  
356 2% 95%  
357 2% 93%  
358 0.4% 91%  
359 1.1% 91%  
360 1.5% 90%  
361 2% 88%  
362 0.7% 86%  
363 0.7% 86%  
364 2% 85%  
365 2% 83%  
366 4% 81%  
367 0.7% 77%  
368 1.1% 77%  
369 3% 76%  
370 2% 72%  
371 4% 71%  
372 2% 67%  
373 2% 65%  
374 4% 63%  
375 0.6% 59%  
376 1.1% 58%  
377 3% 57%  
378 6% 54%  
379 4% 48% Median
380 3% 44%  
381 1.0% 41%  
382 3% 40%  
383 0.9% 37%  
384 1.4% 36%  
385 2% 34%  
386 2% 33%  
387 4% 31%  
388 0.8% 27%  
389 2% 26%  
390 1.1% 25%  
391 1.2% 23%  
392 2% 22%  
393 2% 20%  
394 0.9% 18%  
395 2% 17%  
396 2% 14%  
397 2% 12%  
398 1.0% 11%  
399 2% 10%  
400 0.5% 8%  
401 2% 8%  
402 0.8% 6%  
403 3% 5%  
404 0.1% 2%  
405 0.7% 2%  
406 0.6% 2%  
407 0.2% 0.9%  
408 0.1% 0.8%  
409 0.1% 0.6%  
410 0.1% 0.5%  
411 0.2% 0.5%  
412 0% 0.2%  
413 0.1% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.2%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.7%  
316 0.1% 99.6%  
317 0.1% 99.6%  
318 0.1% 99.5%  
319 0.3% 99.4%  
320 0.2% 99.1%  
321 0.2% 98.9% Last Result
322 0.2% 98.8%  
323 0.3% 98.5%  
324 0.1% 98%  
325 0.4% 98%  
326 0.9% 98% Majority
327 2% 97%  
328 1.0% 95%  
329 0.4% 94%  
330 2% 93%  
331 0.3% 91%  
332 0.8% 91%  
333 0.4% 90%  
334 0.8% 89%  
335 2% 89%  
336 1.0% 87%  
337 0.7% 86%  
338 4% 85%  
339 3% 81%  
340 1.2% 79%  
341 2% 77%  
342 0.5% 76%  
343 2% 75%  
344 3% 74%  
345 0.3% 71%  
346 4% 71%  
347 3% 66%  
348 1.0% 63%  
349 3% 62%  
350 2% 59%  
351 3% 58%  
352 0.8% 54% Median
353 2% 54%  
354 5% 51%  
355 4% 46%  
356 2% 42%  
357 3% 41%  
358 1.5% 37%  
359 3% 36%  
360 3% 33%  
361 1.4% 30%  
362 2% 29%  
363 2% 27%  
364 0.6% 25%  
365 4% 25%  
366 2% 21%  
367 1.5% 19%  
368 1.2% 17%  
369 2% 16%  
370 2% 14%  
371 1.4% 13%  
372 1.1% 11%  
373 3% 10%  
374 1.2% 8%  
375 2% 7%  
376 0.4% 4%  
377 0.4% 4%  
378 0.3% 3%  
379 0.8% 3%  
380 0.7% 2%  
381 0.2% 2%  
382 0.2% 1.5%  
383 0.4% 1.3%  
384 0.2% 0.8%  
385 0.1% 0.7%  
386 0.1% 0.5%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.4%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0.1% 99.7%  
315 0% 99.6%  
316 0.1% 99.6%  
317 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
318 0.1% 99.3%  
319 0.2% 99.2%  
320 0.3% 99.0%  
321 0.3% 98.7%  
322 0.3% 98%  
323 0.3% 98%  
324 0.2% 98%  
325 0.8% 98%  
326 1.0% 97% Majority
327 2% 96%  
328 1.2% 94%  
329 0.3% 93%  
330 2% 92%  
331 0.4% 90%  
332 1.1% 90%  
333 0.3% 89%  
334 1.0% 89%  
335 1.2% 88%  
336 2% 86%  
337 2% 85%  
338 4% 83%  
339 3% 79%  
340 1.1% 77%  
341 0.8% 75%  
342 0.4% 75%  
343 2% 74%  
344 5% 72%  
345 2% 67%  
346 2% 65%  
347 2% 64%  
348 1.0% 61%  
349 2% 60%  
350 3% 58%  
351 3% 55%  
352 5% 52% Median
353 3% 47%  
354 1.1% 45%  
355 3% 44%  
356 2% 41%  
357 4% 39%  
358 1.2% 35%  
359 3% 34%  
360 3% 31%  
361 1.0% 28%  
362 1.0% 27%  
363 1.2% 26%  
364 1.1% 24%  
365 4% 23%  
366 2% 19%  
367 2% 18%  
368 1.4% 16%  
369 2% 15%  
370 0.9% 13%  
371 1.4% 12%  
372 1.5% 11%  
373 2% 9%  
374 0.7% 7%  
375 2% 6%  
376 0.3% 4%  
377 0.9% 3%  
378 0.2% 2%  
379 0.3% 2%  
380 0.5% 2%  
381 0.2% 1.4%  
382 0.2% 1.2%  
383 0.4% 1.1%  
384 0.2% 0.7%  
385 0.1% 0.5%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0.1% 99.7%  
315 0% 99.6%  
316 0.1% 99.6%  
317 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
318 0.1% 99.3%  
319 0.2% 99.2%  
320 0.3% 99.0%  
321 0.3% 98.7%  
322 0.3% 98%  
323 0.3% 98%  
324 0.2% 98%  
325 0.8% 98%  
326 1.0% 97% Majority
327 2% 96%  
328 1.2% 94%  
329 0.3% 93%  
330 2% 92%  
331 0.4% 90%  
332 1.1% 90%  
333 0.3% 89%  
334 1.0% 89%  
335 1.2% 88%  
336 2% 86%  
337 2% 85%  
338 4% 83%  
339 3% 79%  
340 1.1% 77%  
341 0.8% 75%  
342 0.4% 75%  
343 2% 74%  
344 5% 72%  
345 2% 67%  
346 2% 65%  
347 2% 64%  
348 1.0% 61%  
349 2% 60%  
350 3% 58%  
351 3% 55%  
352 5% 52% Median
353 3% 47%  
354 1.1% 45%  
355 3% 44%  
356 2% 41%  
357 4% 39%  
358 1.2% 35%  
359 3% 34%  
360 3% 31%  
361 1.0% 28%  
362 1.0% 27%  
363 1.2% 26%  
364 1.1% 24%  
365 4% 23%  
366 2% 19%  
367 2% 18%  
368 1.4% 16%  
369 2% 15%  
370 0.9% 13%  
371 1.4% 12%  
372 1.5% 11%  
373 2% 9%  
374 0.7% 7%  
375 2% 6%  
376 0.3% 4%  
377 0.9% 3%  
378 0.2% 2%  
379 0.3% 2%  
380 0.5% 2%  
381 0.2% 1.4%  
382 0.2% 1.2%  
383 0.4% 1.1%  
384 0.2% 0.7%  
385 0.1% 0.5%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.6%  
247 0.1% 99.6%  
248 0.2% 99.5%  
249 0.4% 99.3%  
250 0.2% 98.9%  
251 0.2% 98.8%  
252 0.5% 98.6%  
253 0.3% 98%  
254 0.2% 98%  
255 0.9% 98%  
256 0.3% 97%  
257 2% 96%  
258 0.7% 94%  
259 2% 93%  
260 1.5% 91%  
261 1.4% 89%  
262 0.9% 88%  
263 2% 87%  
264 1.4% 85%  
265 2% 84%  
266 2% 82%  
267 4% 81%  
268 1.1% 77%  
269 1.2% 76%  
270 1.0% 74%  
271 1.0% 73%  
272 3% 72%  
273 3% 69%  
274 1.2% 66%  
275 4% 65%  
276 2% 61%  
277 3% 59%  
278 1.1% 56%  
279 3% 55%  
280 5% 53%  
281 3% 48% Median
282 3% 45%  
283 2% 42%  
284 1.0% 40%  
285 2% 39%  
286 2% 36%  
287 2% 35%  
288 5% 33%  
289 2% 28%  
290 0.4% 26%  
291 0.8% 25%  
292 1.1% 25%  
293 3% 23%  
294 4% 21%  
295 2% 17%  
296 2% 15%  
297 1.2% 14%  
298 1.0% 12%  
299 0.3% 11%  
300 1.1% 11%  
301 0.4% 10%  
302 2% 10%  
303 0.3% 8%  
304 1.2% 7%  
305 2% 6%  
306 1.0% 4%  
307 0.8% 3%  
308 0.2% 2%  
309 0.3% 2%  
310 0.3% 2%  
311 0.3% 2%  
312 0.3% 1.3%  
313 0.2% 1.0%  
314 0.1% 0.8% Last Result
315 0.2% 0.7%  
316 0.1% 0.5%  
317 0% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.4%  
319 0.1% 0.3%  
320 0.1% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.6%  
246 0.1% 99.6%  
247 0.2% 99.5%  
248 0.4% 99.3%  
249 0.2% 98.9%  
250 0.2% 98.8%  
251 0.5% 98.6%  
252 0.3% 98%  
253 0.2% 98%  
254 0.9% 98%  
255 0.3% 97%  
256 2% 96%  
257 0.7% 94%  
258 2% 93%  
259 1.5% 91%  
260 1.4% 89%  
261 0.9% 88%  
262 2% 87%  
263 1.4% 85%  
264 2% 84%  
265 2% 82%  
266 4% 81%  
267 1.1% 77%  
268 1.2% 76%  
269 1.0% 74%  
270 1.0% 73%  
271 3% 72%  
272 3% 69%  
273 1.2% 66%  
274 4% 65%  
275 2% 61%  
276 3% 59%  
277 1.1% 56%  
278 3% 55%  
279 5% 53%  
280 3% 48% Median
281 3% 45%  
282 2% 42%  
283 1.0% 40%  
284 2% 39%  
285 2% 36%  
286 2% 35%  
287 5% 33%  
288 2% 28%  
289 0.4% 26%  
290 0.8% 25%  
291 1.1% 25%  
292 3% 23%  
293 4% 21%  
294 2% 17%  
295 2% 15%  
296 1.2% 14%  
297 1.0% 12%  
298 0.3% 11%  
299 1.1% 11%  
300 0.4% 10%  
301 2% 10%  
302 0.3% 8%  
303 1.2% 7%  
304 2% 6%  
305 1.0% 4%  
306 0.8% 3%  
307 0.2% 2%  
308 0.3% 2%  
309 0.3% 2%  
310 0.3% 2%  
311 0.3% 1.3%  
312 0.2% 1.0%  
313 0.1% 0.8% Last Result
314 0.2% 0.7%  
315 0.1% 0.5%  
316 0% 0.4%  
317 0.1% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.7%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.6%  
245 0.1% 99.6%  
246 0.1% 99.5%  
247 0.2% 99.3%  
248 0.4% 99.2%  
249 0.2% 98.7%  
250 0.2% 98.5%  
251 0.7% 98%  
252 0.8% 98%  
253 0.3% 97%  
254 0.4% 97%  
255 0.4% 96%  
256 2% 96%  
257 1.2% 93%  
258 3% 92%  
259 1.1% 90%  
260 1.4% 89%  
261 2% 87%  
262 2% 86%  
263 1.2% 84%  
264 1.5% 83%  
265 2% 81%  
266 4% 79%  
267 0.6% 75%  
268 2% 75%  
269 2% 73%  
270 1.4% 71%  
271 3% 70%  
272 3% 67%  
273 1.5% 64%  
274 3% 63%  
275 2% 59%  
276 4% 58%  
277 5% 54%  
278 2% 49%  
279 0.8% 46%  
280 3% 46% Median
281 2% 42%  
282 3% 41%  
283 1.0% 38%  
284 3% 37%  
285 4% 34%  
286 0.3% 29%  
287 3% 29%  
288 2% 26%  
289 0.5% 25%  
290 2% 24%  
291 1.2% 23%  
292 3% 21%  
293 4% 19%  
294 0.7% 15%  
295 1.0% 14%  
296 2% 13%  
297 0.8% 11%  
298 0.4% 11%  
299 0.8% 10%  
300 0.3% 9%  
301 2% 9%  
302 0.4% 7%  
303 1.0% 6%  
304 2% 5%  
305 0.9% 3%  
306 0.4% 2%  
307 0.1% 2%  
308 0.3% 2%  
309 0.2% 1.5% Last Result
310 0.2% 1.2%  
311 0.2% 1.1%  
312 0.3% 0.9%  
313 0.1% 0.6%  
314 0.1% 0.5%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0.1% 0.4%  
317 0.1% 0.3%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0.1% 99.8%  
219 0% 99.8%  
220 0.2% 99.8%  
221 0.1% 99.5%  
222 0.1% 99.5%  
223 0.1% 99.4%  
224 0.2% 99.2%  
225 0.6% 99.1%  
226 0.7% 98%  
227 0.1% 98%  
228 3% 98%  
229 0.8% 95%  
230 2% 94%  
231 0.5% 92%  
232 2% 92%  
233 1.0% 90%  
234 2% 89%  
235 2% 88%  
236 2% 86%  
237 0.9% 83%  
238 2% 82%  
239 2% 80%  
240 1.2% 78%  
241 1.1% 77%  
242 2% 75%  
243 0.8% 74%  
244 4% 73%  
245 2% 69%  
246 2% 67%  
247 1.4% 66%  
248 0.9% 64%  
249 3% 63%  
250 1.0% 60%  
251 3% 59%  
252 4% 56%  
253 6% 52% Median
254 3% 46%  
255 1.1% 43%  
256 0.6% 42%  
257 4% 41%  
258 2% 37%  
259 2% 35%  
260 4% 33%  
261 2% 29%  
262 3% 28%  
263 1.1% 24%  
264 0.7% 23%  
265 4% 23%  
266 2% 19%  
267 2% 17%  
268 0.7% 15%  
269 0.7% 14%  
270 2% 14%  
271 1.5% 12%  
272 1.1% 10%  
273 0.4% 9%  
274 2% 9%  
275 2% 7%  
276 0.5% 5%  
277 0.9% 4%  
278 0.9% 3%  
279 0.5% 3%  
280 0.4% 2%  
281 0.2% 2%  
282 0.2% 1.5%  
283 0.1% 1.3%  
284 0.2% 1.2%  
285 0.2% 0.9%  
286 0.1% 0.7%  
287 0.2% 0.7%  
288 0.2% 0.5%  
289 0.1% 0.3%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0.1% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.8%  
217 0.1% 99.8%  
218 0% 99.7%  
219 0% 99.7%  
220 0.2% 99.6%  
221 0.1% 99.4%  
222 0.2% 99.3%  
223 0.3% 99.1%  
224 0.6% 98.9%  
225 0.5% 98%  
226 0.2% 98%  
227 0.4% 98%  
228 3% 97%  
229 0.9% 94%  
230 2% 93%  
231 0.7% 91%  
232 1.2% 91%  
233 1.1% 90%  
234 2% 88%  
235 2% 87%  
236 2% 84%  
237 0.8% 82%  
238 2% 81%  
239 2% 79%  
240 1.1% 76%  
241 2% 75%  
242 2% 74%  
243 1.2% 72%  
244 3% 71%  
245 2% 67%  
246 2% 65%  
247 0.2% 63%  
248 2% 63%  
249 3% 60%  
250 0.6% 57%  
251 6% 56%  
252 4% 50%  
253 2% 46% Median
254 3% 44%  
255 2% 41%  
256 2% 39%  
257 3% 37%  
258 2% 34%  
259 2% 32%  
260 4% 30%  
261 1.4% 26%  
262 1.2% 25%  
263 2% 23%  
264 0.7% 22%  
265 3% 21%  
266 2% 18%  
267 2% 16%  
268 0.8% 14%  
269 0.4% 13%  
270 1.5% 12%  
271 2% 11%  
272 0.7% 9%  
273 0.7% 8%  
274 2% 8%  
275 2% 6%  
276 1.0% 4%  
277 0.7% 3%  
278 0.3% 2%  
279 0.3% 2%  
280 0.2% 2%  
281 0.2% 1.5%  
282 0.2% 1.3%  
283 0.2% 1.1%  
284 0.1% 0.9%  
285 0.2% 0.8%  
286 0.1% 0.6%  
287 0.1% 0.5%  
288 0.2% 0.4%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0.1% 99.9%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.8%  
199 0.1% 99.8%  
200 0.1% 99.7%  
201 0.1% 99.7%  
202 0.1% 99.6%  
203 0.1% 99.5%  
204 0.2% 99.4%  
205 0.4% 99.2%  
206 0.2% 98.8%  
207 0.5% 98.6%  
208 0.3% 98%  
209 2% 98%  
210 1.1% 96%  
211 1.0% 95%  
212 0.6% 94%  
213 2% 93%  
214 2% 92%  
215 4% 90%  
216 3% 86%  
217 2% 83%  
218 3% 81%  
219 1.3% 77%  
220 1.2% 76%  
221 2% 75%  
222 1.1% 73%  
223 3% 72%  
224 1.4% 69%  
225 2% 67%  
226 3% 66%  
227 4% 63%  
228 2% 59%  
229 2% 57%  
230 1.0% 56%  
231 3% 55%  
232 4% 52%  
233 2% 48% Median
234 5% 46%  
235 3% 41%  
236 1.3% 37%  
237 6% 36%  
238 1.3% 30%  
239 1.0% 28%  
240 1.4% 27%  
241 2% 26%  
242 1.3% 24%  
243 0.4% 22%  
244 0.9% 22%  
245 1.3% 21%  
246 2% 20%  
247 2% 17%  
248 4% 15%  
249 0.6% 11%  
250 0.8% 11%  
251 1.3% 10%  
252 0.8% 8%  
253 2% 8%  
254 1.4% 5%  
255 0.6% 4%  
256 0.5% 3%  
257 0.9% 3%  
258 0.3% 2%  
259 0.2% 2%  
260 0.2% 1.4%  
261 0.2% 1.2%  
262 0.1% 1.0%  
263 0.1% 0.9%  
264 0.3% 0.8%  
265 0.1% 0.5%  
266 0.2% 0.4%  
267 0.1% 0.2%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0.1% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.8%  
201 0.1% 99.8%  
202 0.1% 99.7%  
203 0.1% 99.6%  
204 0% 99.5%  
205 0.4% 99.4%  
206 0.2% 99.1%  
207 0.5% 98.9%  
208 0.3% 98%  
209 1.5% 98%  
210 0.4% 97%  
211 0.4% 96%  
212 1.3% 96%  
213 2% 94%  
214 1.2% 92%  
215 4% 91%  
216 3% 87%  
217 2% 84%  
218 3% 82%  
219 1.4% 79%  
220 1.1% 77%  
221 2% 76%  
222 1.3% 75%  
223 3% 73%  
224 0.6% 70%  
225 1.4% 70%  
226 2% 68%  
227 5% 66%  
228 1.2% 61%  
229 2% 60%  
230 1.4% 58%  
231 3% 56%  
232 4% 53%  
233 1.1% 49% Median
234 1.0% 48%  
235 3% 47%  
236 5% 44%  
237 5% 39%  
238 2% 34%  
239 3% 32%  
240 2% 29%  
241 2% 27%  
242 0.4% 25%  
243 1.0% 25%  
244 1.3% 24%  
245 1.0% 23%  
246 3% 22%  
247 3% 19%  
248 3% 16%  
249 0.8% 13%  
250 2% 12%  
251 1.4% 11%  
252 1.2% 9%  
253 2% 8%  
254 1.1% 6%  
255 0.8% 5%  
256 1.2% 4%  
257 0.8% 3%  
258 0.6% 2%  
259 0.3% 2%  
260 0.3% 2%  
261 0.2% 1.3%  
262 0.1% 1.1%  
263 0.1% 1.0%  
264 0.2% 0.9%  
265 0.1% 0.7%  
266 0.2% 0.6%  
267 0.2% 0.4%  
268 0.1% 0.2%  
269 0.1% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0% 99.9%  
175 0.1% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0.1% 99.8%  
178 0% 99.7%  
179 0.2% 99.7%  
180 0.1% 99.5%  
181 0.1% 99.3%  
182 0.1% 99.3%  
183 0.8% 99.2%  
184 0.2% 98%  
185 1.5% 98%  
186 3% 97%  
187 4% 94%  
188 7% 90%  
189 1.2% 83%  
190 2% 81%  
191 1.1% 80%  
192 1.3% 79%  
193 1.2% 77%  
194 0.5% 76%  
195 1.4% 76%  
196 0.3% 74%  
197 4% 74%  
198 0.1% 70%  
199 2% 69%  
200 0.8% 67%  
201 3% 66%  
202 3% 64%  
203 2% 61%  
204 2% 59%  
205 0.9% 56%  
206 2% 56% Median
207 2% 53%  
208 5% 52%  
209 4% 47%  
210 11% 43%  
211 2% 32%  
212 0.9% 30%  
213 2% 29%  
214 0.1% 28%  
215 1.4% 27%  
216 2% 26%  
217 2% 24%  
218 2% 22%  
219 2% 21%  
220 5% 18%  
221 0.8% 13%  
222 1.1% 12%  
223 2% 11%  
224 1.1% 9%  
225 2% 8%  
226 1.0% 6%  
227 2% 5%  
228 0.7% 3%  
229 0.3% 2%  
230 0.4% 2%  
231 0.2% 2%  
232 0.3% 2%  
233 0.1% 1.2%  
234 0.1% 1.1%  
235 0.1% 1.0%  
236 0.1% 0.9%  
237 0.1% 0.8%  
238 0.3% 0.7%  
239 0.3% 0.5%  
240 0.1% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0.1% 99.9%  
175 0.1% 99.8%  
176 0.1% 99.7%  
177 0% 99.7%  
178 0% 99.7%  
179 0.2% 99.6%  
180 0.3% 99.4%  
181 0.2% 99.1%  
182 0.3% 98.9%  
183 2% 98.6%  
184 0.3% 97%  
185 0.7% 97%  
186 4% 96%  
187 5% 92%  
188 7% 87%  
189 0.5% 80%  
190 0.8% 80%  
191 1.3% 79%  
192 1.5% 78%  
193 1.2% 76%  
194 1.1% 75%  
195 1.2% 74%  
196 1.1% 73%  
197 4% 72%  
198 0.7% 68%  
199 1.5% 67%  
200 0.3% 65%  
201 3% 65%  
202 2% 62%  
203 2% 59%  
204 3% 58%  
205 2% 54%  
206 3% 53% Median
207 2% 49%  
208 10% 47%  
209 3% 38%  
210 4% 35%  
211 3% 31%  
212 0.4% 28%  
213 1.3% 28%  
214 1.2% 26%  
215 0.8% 25%  
216 2% 24%  
217 1.0% 22%  
218 3% 21%  
219 3% 18%  
220 4% 15%  
221 0.7% 12%  
222 0.3% 11%  
223 2% 11%  
224 1.4% 8%  
225 3% 7%  
226 0.6% 4%  
227 0.9% 3%  
228 0.3% 2%  
229 0.3% 2%  
230 0.4% 2%  
231 0.1% 1.4%  
232 0.3% 1.3%  
233 0% 1.0%  
234 0.1% 1.0%  
235 0.1% 0.9%  
236 0.1% 0.8%  
237 0.3% 0.7%  
238 0.2% 0.4%  
239 0.1% 0.2%  
240 0.1% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations