Opinion Poll by ICM Research, 6–9 December 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party |
43.4% |
42.2% |
40.8–43.7% |
40.4–44.0% |
40.1–44.4% |
39.4–45.1% |
Labour Party |
41.0% |
36.2% |
34.8–37.6% |
34.4–38.0% |
34.1–38.3% |
33.5–39.0% |
Liberal Democrats |
7.6% |
12.1% |
11.2–13.1% |
10.9–13.4% |
10.7–13.6% |
10.3–14.1% |
Scottish National Party |
3.1% |
3.0% |
2.6–3.6% |
2.5–3.7% |
2.4–3.9% |
2.2–4.2% |
Brexit Party |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.6–3.6% |
2.5–3.7% |
2.4–3.9% |
2.2–4.2% |
Green Party |
1.7% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.5–2.6% |
1.5–2.7% |
1.3–2.9% |
Plaid Cymru |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.2–0.5% |
0.1–0.5% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
UK Independence Party |
1.9% |
0.2% |
0.2–0.5% |
0.1–0.5% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
280 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
281 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
282 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
283 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
284 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
285 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
286 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
287 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
288 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
289 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
290 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
293 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
295 |
0.4% |
99.2% |
|
296 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
297 |
0% |
98.7% |
|
298 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
299 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
300 |
0% |
98% |
|
301 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
302 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
303 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
304 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
305 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
306 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
307 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
309 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
310 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
311 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
312 |
1.4% |
94% |
|
313 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
314 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
315 |
0.7% |
91% |
|
316 |
2% |
91% |
|
317 |
1.2% |
88% |
Last Result |
318 |
2% |
87% |
|
319 |
1.1% |
85% |
|
320 |
4% |
84% |
|
321 |
1.0% |
79% |
|
322 |
4% |
78% |
|
323 |
5% |
75% |
|
324 |
10% |
69% |
|
325 |
2% |
60% |
|
326 |
3% |
58% |
Majority |
327 |
0.9% |
55% |
|
328 |
3% |
54% |
|
329 |
6% |
51% |
Median |
330 |
3% |
45% |
|
331 |
2% |
42% |
|
332 |
2% |
40% |
|
333 |
7% |
38% |
|
334 |
0.8% |
31% |
|
335 |
6% |
30% |
|
336 |
2% |
24% |
|
337 |
1.2% |
22% |
|
338 |
4% |
21% |
|
339 |
4% |
17% |
|
340 |
0.7% |
13% |
|
341 |
2% |
13% |
|
342 |
3% |
11% |
|
343 |
1.5% |
8% |
|
344 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
345 |
2% |
6% |
|
346 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
347 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
348 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
349 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
350 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
351 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
352 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
353 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
354 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
355 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
356 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
357 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
358 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
359 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
361 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
362 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
363 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
364 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
365 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
366 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
367 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
368 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
369 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
370 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
371 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
196 |
0% |
100% |
|
197 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
198 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
199 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
200 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
201 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
202 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
203 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
204 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
205 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
206 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
207 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
208 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
209 |
0.4% |
98.9% |
|
210 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
211 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
212 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
213 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
214 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
215 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
216 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
217 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
218 |
2% |
96% |
|
219 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
220 |
2% |
94% |
|
221 |
0.4% |
92% |
|
222 |
0.4% |
91% |
|
223 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
224 |
5% |
90% |
|
225 |
8% |
86% |
|
226 |
2% |
78% |
|
227 |
2% |
77% |
|
228 |
0.8% |
75% |
|
229 |
0.6% |
74% |
|
230 |
6% |
73% |
|
231 |
5% |
67% |
|
232 |
5% |
62% |
|
233 |
4% |
57% |
|
234 |
1.2% |
53% |
|
235 |
2% |
52% |
Median |
236 |
4% |
50% |
|
237 |
4% |
46% |
|
238 |
2% |
42% |
|
239 |
11% |
40% |
|
240 |
4% |
29% |
|
241 |
3% |
25% |
|
242 |
2% |
22% |
|
243 |
0.4% |
20% |
|
244 |
2% |
20% |
|
245 |
0.6% |
18% |
|
246 |
0.6% |
17% |
|
247 |
0.9% |
17% |
|
248 |
1.0% |
16% |
|
249 |
2% |
15% |
|
250 |
0.9% |
12% |
|
251 |
1.2% |
11% |
|
252 |
1.1% |
10% |
|
253 |
2% |
9% |
|
254 |
1.3% |
8% |
|
255 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
256 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
257 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
258 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
259 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
260 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
261 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
262 |
0.6% |
4% |
Last Result |
263 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
264 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
266 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
267 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
269 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
270 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
271 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
272 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
273 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
275 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
276 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
277 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
278 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
279 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
280 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
281 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
282 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
283 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
284 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
285 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
286 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
287 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
288 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
289 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
290 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
26 |
3% |
99.1% |
|
27 |
3% |
96% |
|
28 |
7% |
93% |
|
29 |
9% |
86% |
|
30 |
27% |
77% |
Median |
31 |
30% |
50% |
|
32 |
12% |
20% |
|
33 |
4% |
7% |
|
34 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
35 |
1.5% |
3% |
|
36 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
37 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
38 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
39 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
0.5% |
99.3% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
8 |
0% |
98.7% |
|
9 |
0% |
98.6% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
13 |
0% |
98% |
|
14 |
0% |
98% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
17 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
18 |
2% |
97% |
|
19 |
1.4% |
95% |
|
20 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
21 |
2% |
93% |
|
22 |
2% |
91% |
|
23 |
4% |
90% |
|
24 |
2% |
86% |
|
25 |
0.5% |
84% |
|
26 |
1.4% |
83% |
|
27 |
0.6% |
82% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
81% |
|
29 |
2% |
81% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
79% |
|
31 |
0.7% |
79% |
|
32 |
2% |
78% |
|
33 |
1.2% |
76% |
|
34 |
1.4% |
75% |
|
35 |
2% |
74% |
Last Result |
36 |
7% |
72% |
|
37 |
14% |
65% |
|
38 |
4% |
50% |
Median |
39 |
3% |
46% |
|
40 |
11% |
43% |
|
41 |
13% |
32% |
|
42 |
6% |
19% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
13% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
13% |
|
45 |
6% |
13% |
|
46 |
0% |
7% |
|
47 |
3% |
7% |
|
48 |
3% |
4% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
50 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
Brexit Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
68% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.1% |
32% |
|
2 |
22% |
32% |
|
3 |
9% |
9% |
|
4 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
UK Independence Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
356 |
365 |
99.4% |
349–377 |
343–383 |
336–388 |
323–396 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
352 |
364 |
99.3% |
347–377 |
342–382 |
336–386 |
322–396 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
329 |
358 |
99.2% |
346–372 |
341–375 |
334–380 |
322–390 |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
321 |
329 |
59% |
316–342 |
311–347 |
303–352 |
293–362 |
Conservative Party – Brexit Party |
317 |
329 |
58% |
316–342 |
310–345 |
303–351 |
291–362 |
Conservative Party |
317 |
329 |
58% |
316–342 |
310–345 |
303–351 |
291–362 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru |
314 |
303 |
4% |
290–316 |
287–322 |
281–329 |
270–341 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
313 |
302 |
3% |
289–315 |
286–321 |
280–328 |
269–340 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
309 |
302 |
3% |
289–315 |
284–320 |
279–328 |
269–338 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
301 |
273 |
0% |
259–285 |
256–290 |
251–297 |
241–309 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
297 |
271 |
0% |
259–284 |
254–290 |
250–297 |
240–308 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru |
278 |
267 |
0% |
254–284 |
249–289 |
245–295 |
235–309 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
274 |
266 |
0% |
254–282 |
248–288 |
243–295 |
235–308 |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
266 |
236 |
0% |
224–252 |
218–259 |
215–264 |
207–277 |
Labour Party |
262 |
235 |
0% |
224–252 |
218–258 |
214–264 |
205–277 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
311 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
312 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
313 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
314 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
315 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
316 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
317 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
318 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
319 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
320 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
321 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
322 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
324 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
325 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
326 |
0% |
99.4% |
Majority |
327 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
328 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
329 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
330 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
331 |
0% |
98.8% |
|
332 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
333 |
0.4% |
98.6% |
|
334 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
335 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
336 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
337 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
338 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
340 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
341 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
342 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
343 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
344 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
345 |
2% |
94% |
|
346 |
2% |
93% |
|
347 |
0.2% |
91% |
|
348 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
349 |
0.9% |
91% |
|
350 |
2% |
90% |
|
351 |
2% |
88% |
|
352 |
0.6% |
86% |
|
353 |
0.9% |
85% |
|
354 |
0.6% |
84% |
|
355 |
0.7% |
84% |
|
356 |
1.2% |
83% |
Last Result |
357 |
1.3% |
82% |
|
358 |
2% |
80% |
|
359 |
2% |
79% |
|
360 |
3% |
77% |
|
361 |
10% |
73% |
|
362 |
3% |
63% |
|
363 |
4% |
60% |
|
364 |
5% |
56% |
|
365 |
2% |
51% |
|
366 |
2% |
50% |
|
367 |
5% |
48% |
Median |
368 |
0.6% |
43% |
|
369 |
5% |
42% |
|
370 |
0.8% |
37% |
|
371 |
9% |
36% |
|
372 |
2% |
27% |
|
373 |
1.3% |
26% |
|
374 |
2% |
24% |
|
375 |
3% |
23% |
|
376 |
7% |
20% |
|
377 |
3% |
13% |
|
378 |
0.8% |
10% |
|
379 |
0.5% |
9% |
|
380 |
0.5% |
9% |
|
381 |
2% |
8% |
|
382 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
383 |
1.0% |
5% |
|
384 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
385 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
386 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
387 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
388 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
389 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
390 |
0% |
2% |
|
391 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
392 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
393 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
394 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
395 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
396 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
397 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
398 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
399 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
400 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
401 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
402 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
403 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
404 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
405 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
406 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
407 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
310 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
311 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
312 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
313 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
314 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
315 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
316 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
317 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
318 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
319 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
320 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
321 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
322 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
324 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
325 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
326 |
0% |
99.3% |
Majority |
327 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
328 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
329 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
330 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
331 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
332 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
333 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
334 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
335 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
336 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
337 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
338 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
340 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
341 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
342 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
343 |
0.7% |
95% |
|
344 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
345 |
1.2% |
94% |
|
346 |
2% |
93% |
|
347 |
0.6% |
91% |
|
348 |
0.4% |
90% |
|
349 |
2% |
90% |
|
350 |
2% |
88% |
|
351 |
1.1% |
86% |
|
352 |
0.5% |
85% |
Last Result |
353 |
0.7% |
84% |
|
354 |
1.0% |
84% |
|
355 |
1.1% |
83% |
|
356 |
2% |
82% |
|
357 |
1.0% |
80% |
|
358 |
1.4% |
79% |
|
359 |
3% |
77% |
|
360 |
4% |
75% |
|
361 |
10% |
71% |
|
362 |
4% |
61% |
|
363 |
4% |
57% |
|
364 |
4% |
53% |
|
365 |
3% |
50% |
|
366 |
2% |
46% |
|
367 |
3% |
45% |
Median |
368 |
0.7% |
42% |
|
369 |
8% |
41% |
|
370 |
0.9% |
33% |
|
371 |
6% |
32% |
|
372 |
1.5% |
26% |
|
373 |
2% |
25% |
|
374 |
4% |
23% |
|
375 |
3% |
19% |
|
376 |
5% |
16% |
|
377 |
2% |
11% |
|
378 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
379 |
1.3% |
9% |
|
380 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
381 |
1.3% |
7% |
|
382 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
383 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
384 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
385 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
386 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
387 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
388 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
389 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
390 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
391 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
392 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
393 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
394 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
395 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
396 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
397 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
398 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
399 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
400 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
401 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
402 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
403 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
404 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
405 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
312 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
313 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
314 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
315 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
316 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
317 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
318 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
319 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
320 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
321 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
322 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
324 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
325 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
326 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
Majority |
327 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
328 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
329 |
0.1% |
98.5% |
Last Result |
330 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
331 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
332 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
333 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
334 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
335 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
336 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
337 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
338 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
339 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
340 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
341 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
342 |
1.5% |
95% |
|
343 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
344 |
1.1% |
93% |
|
345 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
346 |
1.4% |
91% |
|
347 |
2% |
90% |
|
348 |
0.8% |
88% |
|
349 |
2% |
87% |
|
350 |
3% |
85% |
|
351 |
5% |
82% |
|
352 |
2% |
78% |
|
353 |
2% |
75% |
|
354 |
6% |
74% |
|
355 |
9% |
67% |
|
356 |
1.1% |
58% |
|
357 |
3% |
57% |
|
358 |
6% |
54% |
|
359 |
1.0% |
49% |
Median |
360 |
6% |
47% |
|
361 |
1.3% |
42% |
|
362 |
3% |
40% |
|
363 |
6% |
37% |
|
364 |
1.1% |
32% |
|
365 |
5% |
30% |
|
366 |
4% |
26% |
|
367 |
1.0% |
22% |
|
368 |
2% |
21% |
|
369 |
5% |
19% |
|
370 |
1.0% |
14% |
|
371 |
2% |
13% |
|
372 |
2% |
10% |
|
373 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
374 |
1.0% |
7% |
|
375 |
2% |
6% |
|
376 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
377 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
378 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
379 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
380 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
381 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
382 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
383 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
384 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
385 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
386 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
387 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
388 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
389 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
390 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
391 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
392 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
393 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
394 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
395 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
396 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
397 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
398 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
399 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
400 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
282 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
283 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
284 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
285 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
286 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
287 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
288 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
289 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
290 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
291 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
293 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
294 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
295 |
0.5% |
99.3% |
|
296 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
297 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
298 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
299 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
300 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
301 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
302 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
303 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
304 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
305 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
306 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
307 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
309 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
310 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
311 |
0.8% |
95% |
|
312 |
1.5% |
95% |
|
313 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
314 |
0.7% |
93% |
|
315 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
316 |
2% |
91% |
|
317 |
0.7% |
89% |
|
318 |
2% |
89% |
|
319 |
1.4% |
87% |
|
320 |
4% |
85% |
|
321 |
2% |
81% |
Last Result |
322 |
3% |
79% |
|
323 |
2% |
77% |
|
324 |
10% |
74% |
|
325 |
5% |
64% |
|
326 |
2% |
59% |
Majority |
327 |
1.0% |
57% |
|
328 |
4% |
56% |
|
329 |
3% |
52% |
Median |
330 |
4% |
49% |
|
331 |
5% |
46% |
|
332 |
2% |
41% |
|
333 |
4% |
40% |
|
334 |
1.1% |
36% |
|
335 |
9% |
35% |
|
336 |
2% |
26% |
|
337 |
2% |
24% |
|
338 |
3% |
22% |
|
339 |
4% |
19% |
|
340 |
0.9% |
15% |
|
341 |
2% |
14% |
|
342 |
2% |
12% |
|
343 |
2% |
10% |
|
344 |
0.7% |
7% |
|
345 |
1.4% |
7% |
|
346 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
347 |
1.0% |
5% |
|
348 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
349 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
350 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
351 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
352 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
353 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
354 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
355 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
356 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
357 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
358 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
359 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
361 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
362 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
363 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
364 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
365 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
366 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
367 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
368 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
369 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
370 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
371 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Brexit Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
280 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
281 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
282 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
283 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
284 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
285 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
286 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
287 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
288 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
289 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
290 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
293 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
295 |
0.4% |
99.2% |
|
296 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
297 |
0% |
98.7% |
|
298 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
299 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
300 |
0% |
98% |
|
301 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
302 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
303 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
304 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
305 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
306 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
307 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
309 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
310 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
311 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
312 |
1.4% |
94% |
|
313 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
314 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
315 |
0.7% |
91% |
|
316 |
2% |
91% |
|
317 |
1.2% |
88% |
Last Result |
318 |
2% |
87% |
|
319 |
1.1% |
85% |
|
320 |
4% |
84% |
|
321 |
1.0% |
79% |
|
322 |
4% |
78% |
|
323 |
5% |
75% |
|
324 |
10% |
69% |
|
325 |
2% |
60% |
|
326 |
3% |
58% |
Majority |
327 |
0.9% |
55% |
|
328 |
3% |
54% |
|
329 |
6% |
51% |
Median |
330 |
3% |
45% |
|
331 |
2% |
42% |
|
332 |
2% |
40% |
|
333 |
7% |
38% |
|
334 |
0.8% |
31% |
|
335 |
6% |
30% |
|
336 |
2% |
24% |
|
337 |
1.2% |
22% |
|
338 |
4% |
21% |
|
339 |
4% |
17% |
|
340 |
0.7% |
13% |
|
341 |
2% |
13% |
|
342 |
3% |
11% |
|
343 |
1.5% |
8% |
|
344 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
345 |
2% |
6% |
|
346 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
347 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
348 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
349 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
350 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
351 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
352 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
353 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
354 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
355 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
356 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
357 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
358 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
359 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
361 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
362 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
363 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
364 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
365 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
366 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
367 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
368 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
369 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
370 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
371 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
280 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
281 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
282 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
283 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
284 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
285 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
286 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
287 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
288 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
289 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
290 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
293 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
295 |
0.4% |
99.2% |
|
296 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
297 |
0% |
98.7% |
|
298 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
299 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
300 |
0% |
98% |
|
301 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
302 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
303 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
304 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
305 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
306 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
307 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
309 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
310 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
311 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
312 |
1.4% |
94% |
|
313 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
314 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
315 |
0.7% |
91% |
|
316 |
2% |
91% |
|
317 |
1.2% |
88% |
Last Result |
318 |
2% |
87% |
|
319 |
1.1% |
85% |
|
320 |
4% |
84% |
|
321 |
1.0% |
79% |
|
322 |
4% |
78% |
|
323 |
5% |
75% |
|
324 |
10% |
69% |
|
325 |
2% |
60% |
|
326 |
3% |
58% |
Majority |
327 |
0.9% |
55% |
|
328 |
3% |
54% |
|
329 |
6% |
51% |
Median |
330 |
3% |
45% |
|
331 |
2% |
42% |
|
332 |
2% |
40% |
|
333 |
7% |
38% |
|
334 |
0.8% |
31% |
|
335 |
6% |
30% |
|
336 |
2% |
24% |
|
337 |
1.2% |
22% |
|
338 |
4% |
21% |
|
339 |
4% |
17% |
|
340 |
0.7% |
13% |
|
341 |
2% |
13% |
|
342 |
3% |
11% |
|
343 |
1.5% |
8% |
|
344 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
345 |
2% |
6% |
|
346 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
347 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
348 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
349 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
350 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
351 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
352 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
353 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
354 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
355 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
356 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
357 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
358 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
359 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
361 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
362 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
363 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
364 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
365 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
366 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
367 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
368 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
369 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
370 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
371 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
264 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
265 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
266 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
267 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
268 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
269 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
270 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
272 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
273 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
274 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
275 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
276 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
277 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
278 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
279 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
280 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
281 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
282 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
283 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
284 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
285 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
286 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
287 |
2% |
95% |
|
288 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
289 |
1.5% |
94% |
|
290 |
3% |
92% |
|
291 |
2% |
89% |
|
292 |
0.7% |
87% |
|
293 |
4% |
87% |
|
294 |
4% |
83% |
|
295 |
1.2% |
79% |
|
296 |
2% |
78% |
|
297 |
6% |
76% |
|
298 |
0.8% |
70% |
|
299 |
7% |
69% |
|
300 |
2% |
62% |
|
301 |
2% |
60% |
|
302 |
3% |
58% |
|
303 |
6% |
55% |
|
304 |
3% |
49% |
Median |
305 |
0.9% |
46% |
|
306 |
3% |
45% |
|
307 |
2% |
42% |
|
308 |
10% |
40% |
|
309 |
5% |
31% |
|
310 |
4% |
25% |
|
311 |
1.0% |
22% |
|
312 |
4% |
21% |
|
313 |
1.1% |
16% |
|
314 |
2% |
15% |
Last Result |
315 |
1.2% |
13% |
|
316 |
2% |
12% |
|
317 |
0.7% |
9% |
|
318 |
0.9% |
9% |
|
319 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
320 |
1.4% |
7% |
|
321 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
322 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
323 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
324 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
325 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
326 |
0.4% |
4% |
Majority |
327 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
328 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
329 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
330 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
331 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
332 |
0% |
2% |
|
333 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
334 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
335 |
0% |
1.3% |
|
336 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
337 |
0.4% |
1.2% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
339 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
342 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
343 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
345 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
346 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
347 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
348 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
349 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
350 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
351 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
352 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
353 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
354 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
263 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
264 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
266 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
267 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
269 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
272 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
273 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
274 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
275 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
276 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
277 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
278 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
279 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
280 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
281 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
282 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
283 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
284 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
285 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
286 |
2% |
95% |
|
287 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
288 |
1.5% |
94% |
|
289 |
3% |
92% |
|
290 |
2% |
89% |
|
291 |
0.7% |
87% |
|
292 |
4% |
87% |
|
293 |
4% |
83% |
|
294 |
1.2% |
79% |
|
295 |
2% |
78% |
|
296 |
6% |
76% |
|
297 |
0.8% |
70% |
|
298 |
7% |
69% |
|
299 |
2% |
62% |
|
300 |
2% |
60% |
|
301 |
3% |
58% |
|
302 |
6% |
55% |
|
303 |
3% |
49% |
Median |
304 |
0.9% |
46% |
|
305 |
3% |
45% |
|
306 |
2% |
42% |
|
307 |
10% |
40% |
|
308 |
5% |
31% |
|
309 |
4% |
25% |
|
310 |
1.0% |
22% |
|
311 |
4% |
21% |
|
312 |
1.1% |
16% |
|
313 |
2% |
15% |
Last Result |
314 |
1.2% |
13% |
|
315 |
2% |
12% |
|
316 |
0.7% |
9% |
|
317 |
0.9% |
9% |
|
318 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
319 |
1.4% |
7% |
|
320 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
321 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
322 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
324 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
325 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
326 |
0.4% |
3% |
Majority |
327 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
328 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
329 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
330 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
331 |
0% |
2% |
|
332 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
333 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
334 |
0% |
1.3% |
|
335 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
336 |
0.4% |
1.2% |
|
337 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
338 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
342 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
343 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
345 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
346 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
347 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
348 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
349 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
350 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
351 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
352 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
353 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
263 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
264 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
266 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
267 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
269 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
270 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
272 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
273 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
274 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
275 |
0.1% |
98.5% |
|
276 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
277 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
278 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
279 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
280 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
281 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
282 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
283 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
284 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
285 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
286 |
1.4% |
95% |
|
287 |
0.7% |
93% |
|
288 |
2% |
93% |
|
289 |
2% |
90% |
|
290 |
2% |
88% |
|
291 |
0.9% |
86% |
|
292 |
4% |
85% |
|
293 |
3% |
81% |
|
294 |
2% |
78% |
|
295 |
2% |
76% |
|
296 |
9% |
74% |
|
297 |
1.1% |
65% |
|
298 |
4% |
64% |
|
299 |
2% |
60% |
|
300 |
5% |
59% |
|
301 |
4% |
54% |
|
302 |
3% |
51% |
|
303 |
4% |
48% |
Median |
304 |
1.0% |
44% |
|
305 |
2% |
43% |
|
306 |
5% |
41% |
|
307 |
10% |
36% |
|
308 |
2% |
26% |
|
309 |
3% |
23% |
Last Result |
310 |
2% |
21% |
|
311 |
4% |
19% |
|
312 |
1.4% |
15% |
|
313 |
2% |
13% |
|
314 |
0.7% |
11% |
|
315 |
2% |
11% |
|
316 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
317 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
318 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
319 |
1.5% |
7% |
|
320 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
321 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
322 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
324 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
325 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
326 |
0.4% |
3% |
Majority |
327 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
328 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
329 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
330 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
331 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
332 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
334 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
335 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
336 |
0.5% |
1.1% |
|
337 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
338 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
340 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
342 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
343 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
345 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
346 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
347 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
348 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
349 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
350 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
351 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
234 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
235 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
236 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
237 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
238 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
239 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
240 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
241 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
242 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
243 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
244 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
245 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
246 |
0.3% |
98.5% |
|
247 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
248 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
249 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
250 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
251 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
252 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
253 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
254 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
255 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
256 |
2% |
95% |
|
257 |
1.0% |
94% |
|
258 |
1.0% |
93% |
|
259 |
2% |
92% |
|
260 |
2% |
90% |
|
261 |
1.0% |
87% |
|
262 |
5% |
86% |
|
263 |
2% |
81% |
|
264 |
1.0% |
79% |
|
265 |
4% |
78% |
|
266 |
5% |
74% |
|
267 |
1.1% |
70% |
|
268 |
6% |
68% |
|
269 |
3% |
63% |
|
270 |
1.3% |
60% |
|
271 |
6% |
58% |
|
272 |
1.0% |
53% |
|
273 |
6% |
51% |
Median |
274 |
3% |
46% |
|
275 |
1.1% |
43% |
|
276 |
9% |
42% |
|
277 |
6% |
33% |
|
278 |
2% |
26% |
|
279 |
2% |
25% |
|
280 |
5% |
22% |
|
281 |
3% |
18% |
|
282 |
2% |
15% |
|
283 |
0.8% |
13% |
|
284 |
2% |
12% |
|
285 |
1.4% |
10% |
|
286 |
0.7% |
9% |
|
287 |
1.1% |
8% |
|
288 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
289 |
1.5% |
7% |
|
290 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
291 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
292 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
293 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
294 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
295 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
296 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
297 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
298 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
299 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
300 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
301 |
0.2% |
2% |
Last Result |
302 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
303 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
304 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
305 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
306 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
307 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
309 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
310 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
311 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
312 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
313 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
314 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
315 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
316 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
317 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
318 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
319 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
320 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
321 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
233 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
234 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
235 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
236 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
237 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
238 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
239 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
240 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
241 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
242 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
243 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
244 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
245 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
246 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
247 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
248 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
249 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
250 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
251 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
252 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
253 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
254 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
255 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
256 |
1.5% |
94% |
|
257 |
1.3% |
93% |
|
258 |
2% |
92% |
|
259 |
2% |
90% |
|
260 |
2% |
88% |
|
261 |
2% |
86% |
|
262 |
5% |
85% |
|
263 |
2% |
79% |
|
264 |
1.1% |
77% |
|
265 |
3% |
76% |
|
266 |
7% |
73% |
|
267 |
2% |
66% |
|
268 |
4% |
64% |
|
269 |
1.3% |
60% |
|
270 |
2% |
59% |
|
271 |
9% |
57% |
|
272 |
2% |
48% |
|
273 |
3% |
46% |
Median |
274 |
1.5% |
43% |
|
275 |
4% |
42% |
|
276 |
9% |
38% |
|
277 |
4% |
29% |
|
278 |
1.1% |
24% |
|
279 |
3% |
23% |
|
280 |
4% |
20% |
|
281 |
2% |
16% |
|
282 |
2% |
14% |
|
283 |
0.7% |
12% |
|
284 |
2% |
11% |
|
285 |
1.0% |
9% |
|
286 |
0.6% |
8% |
|
287 |
1.3% |
8% |
|
288 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
289 |
1.2% |
6% |
|
290 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
291 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
292 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
293 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
295 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
296 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
297 |
0.5% |
3% |
Last Result |
298 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
299 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
300 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
301 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
302 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
303 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
304 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
305 |
0.5% |
1.2% |
|
306 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
307 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
309 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
310 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
311 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
312 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
313 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
314 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
315 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
316 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
317 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
318 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
319 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
320 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
229 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
230 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
231 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
232 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
233 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
234 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
235 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
236 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
237 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
238 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
239 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
240 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
241 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
242 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
243 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
244 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
245 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
246 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
247 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
248 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
249 |
1.1% |
95% |
|
250 |
1.3% |
94% |
|
251 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
252 |
1.3% |
93% |
|
253 |
0.6% |
91% |
|
254 |
2% |
91% |
|
255 |
5% |
89% |
|
256 |
3% |
84% |
|
257 |
4% |
81% |
|
258 |
2% |
77% |
|
259 |
1.5% |
75% |
|
260 |
6% |
74% |
|
261 |
0.9% |
68% |
|
262 |
8% |
67% |
|
263 |
0.7% |
59% |
|
264 |
3% |
58% |
|
265 |
2% |
55% |
Median |
266 |
3% |
54% |
|
267 |
4% |
50% |
|
268 |
4% |
47% |
|
269 |
4% |
43% |
|
270 |
10% |
39% |
|
271 |
4% |
29% |
|
272 |
3% |
25% |
|
273 |
1.4% |
23% |
|
274 |
1.0% |
21% |
|
275 |
2% |
20% |
|
276 |
1.1% |
18% |
|
277 |
1.0% |
17% |
|
278 |
0.7% |
16% |
Last Result |
279 |
0.5% |
16% |
|
280 |
1.1% |
15% |
|
281 |
2% |
14% |
|
282 |
2% |
12% |
|
283 |
0.4% |
10% |
|
284 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
285 |
2% |
9% |
|
286 |
1.2% |
7% |
|
287 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
288 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
289 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
290 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
291 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
293 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
294 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
295 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
296 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
297 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
298 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
299 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
300 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
301 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
302 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
303 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
304 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
305 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
306 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
307 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
309 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
310 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
311 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
312 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
313 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
314 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
315 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
316 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
317 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
318 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
319 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
320 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
321 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
322 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
323 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
227 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
228 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
229 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
230 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
231 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
232 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
233 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
234 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
235 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
236 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
237 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
238 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
239 |
0.4% |
98.8% |
|
240 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
241 |
0% |
98% |
|
242 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
243 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
244 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
245 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
246 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
247 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
248 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
249 |
1.1% |
95% |
|
250 |
2% |
94% |
|
251 |
0.5% |
92% |
|
252 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
253 |
0.8% |
91% |
|
254 |
3% |
90% |
|
255 |
7% |
87% |
|
256 |
3% |
80% |
|
257 |
2% |
77% |
|
258 |
1.3% |
76% |
|
259 |
2% |
74% |
|
260 |
9% |
73% |
|
261 |
0.8% |
64% |
|
262 |
5% |
63% |
|
263 |
0.6% |
58% |
|
264 |
5% |
57% |
|
265 |
2% |
52% |
Median |
266 |
2% |
50% |
|
267 |
5% |
49% |
|
268 |
4% |
44% |
|
269 |
3% |
40% |
|
270 |
10% |
37% |
|
271 |
3% |
27% |
|
272 |
2% |
23% |
|
273 |
2% |
21% |
|
274 |
1.3% |
20% |
Last Result |
275 |
1.2% |
18% |
|
276 |
0.7% |
17% |
|
277 |
0.6% |
16% |
|
278 |
0.9% |
16% |
|
279 |
0.6% |
15% |
|
280 |
2% |
14% |
|
281 |
2% |
12% |
|
282 |
0.9% |
10% |
|
283 |
0.1% |
9% |
|
284 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
285 |
2% |
9% |
|
286 |
2% |
7% |
|
287 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
288 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
289 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
290 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
291 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
293 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
294 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
295 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
296 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
297 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
298 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
299 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
300 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
301 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
302 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
303 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
304 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
305 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
306 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
307 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
309 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
310 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
311 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
312 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
313 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
314 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
315 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
316 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
317 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
318 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
319 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
320 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
321 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
322 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
198 |
0% |
100% |
|
199 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
200 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
201 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
202 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
203 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
204 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
205 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
206 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
207 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
208 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
209 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
210 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
211 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
212 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
213 |
0% |
98% |
|
214 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
215 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
216 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
217 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
218 |
1.4% |
96% |
|
219 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
220 |
1.5% |
95% |
|
221 |
0.8% |
93% |
|
222 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
223 |
0.4% |
91% |
|
224 |
4% |
91% |
|
225 |
5% |
88% |
|
226 |
2% |
83% |
|
227 |
5% |
81% |
|
228 |
1.0% |
76% |
|
229 |
1.0% |
75% |
|
230 |
5% |
74% |
|
231 |
2% |
69% |
|
232 |
6% |
67% |
|
233 |
5% |
61% |
|
234 |
0.6% |
56% |
|
235 |
3% |
55% |
Median |
236 |
4% |
52% |
|
237 |
3% |
48% |
|
238 |
2% |
45% |
|
239 |
12% |
43% |
|
240 |
4% |
31% |
|
241 |
3% |
27% |
|
242 |
3% |
24% |
|
243 |
0.4% |
21% |
|
244 |
1.0% |
21% |
|
245 |
0.6% |
20% |
|
246 |
1.4% |
19% |
|
247 |
0.8% |
18% |
|
248 |
1.1% |
17% |
|
249 |
0.8% |
16% |
|
250 |
0.9% |
15% |
|
251 |
3% |
14% |
|
252 |
1.5% |
11% |
|
253 |
2% |
9% |
|
254 |
0.9% |
8% |
|
255 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
256 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
257 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
258 |
0.1% |
6% |
|
259 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
260 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
261 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
262 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
263 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
264 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
266 |
0.1% |
2% |
Last Result |
267 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
269 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
270 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
271 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
272 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
273 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
275 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
276 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
277 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
278 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
279 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
280 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
281 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
282 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
283 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
284 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
285 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
286 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
287 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
288 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
289 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
290 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
291 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
196 |
0% |
100% |
|
197 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
198 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
199 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
200 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
201 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
202 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
203 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
204 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
205 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
206 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
207 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
208 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
209 |
0.4% |
98.9% |
|
210 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
211 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
212 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
213 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
214 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
215 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
216 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
217 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
218 |
2% |
96% |
|
219 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
220 |
2% |
94% |
|
221 |
0.4% |
92% |
|
222 |
0.4% |
91% |
|
223 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
224 |
5% |
90% |
|
225 |
8% |
86% |
|
226 |
2% |
78% |
|
227 |
2% |
77% |
|
228 |
0.8% |
75% |
|
229 |
0.6% |
74% |
|
230 |
6% |
73% |
|
231 |
5% |
67% |
|
232 |
5% |
62% |
|
233 |
4% |
57% |
|
234 |
1.2% |
53% |
|
235 |
2% |
52% |
Median |
236 |
4% |
50% |
|
237 |
4% |
46% |
|
238 |
2% |
42% |
|
239 |
11% |
40% |
|
240 |
4% |
29% |
|
241 |
3% |
25% |
|
242 |
2% |
22% |
|
243 |
0.4% |
20% |
|
244 |
2% |
20% |
|
245 |
0.6% |
18% |
|
246 |
0.6% |
17% |
|
247 |
0.9% |
17% |
|
248 |
1.0% |
16% |
|
249 |
2% |
15% |
|
250 |
0.9% |
12% |
|
251 |
1.2% |
11% |
|
252 |
1.1% |
10% |
|
253 |
2% |
9% |
|
254 |
1.3% |
8% |
|
255 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
256 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
257 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
258 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
259 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
260 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
261 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
262 |
0.6% |
4% |
Last Result |
263 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
264 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
266 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
267 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
269 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
270 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
271 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
272 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
273 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
275 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
276 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
277 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
278 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
279 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
280 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
281 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
282 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
283 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
284 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
285 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
286 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
287 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
288 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
289 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
290 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: ICM Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–9 December 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2011
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.27%