Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 28 August–1 September 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 28.0% | 25.9–30.3% | 25.3–30.9% | 24.8–31.4% | 23.8–32.5% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 17.6% | 15.8–19.5% | 15.3–20.1% | 14.9–20.6% | 14.1–21.5% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 39.6% | 12.7% | 11.2–14.5% | 10.8–15.0% | 10.4–15.4% | 9.8–16.3% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 10.6% | 9.2–12.2% | 8.8–12.7% | 8.5–13.1% | 7.9–13.9% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.1–12.1% | 8.7–12.5% | 8.4–12.9% | 7.8–13.7% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 10.1% | 8.8–11.8% | 8.4–12.2% | 8.1–12.6% | 7.5–13.4% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.8–8.2% | 5.5–8.6% | 5.2–9.0% | 4.7–9.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 44 | 40–47 | 39–48 | 38–49 | 37–51 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 25 | 20–26 | 20–28 | 20–28 | 19–30 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 29 | 18 | 16–22 | 15–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 14 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 11–18 | 10–19 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 12 | 11–15 | 10–16 | 9–17 | 9–18 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 | 9–17 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 6–11 | 5–12 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 39 | 4% | 96% | |
| 40 | 5% | 92% | |
| 41 | 8% | 87% | |
| 42 | 10% | 80% | |
| 43 | 15% | 70% | |
| 44 | 22% | 55% | Median |
| 45 | 14% | 32% | |
| 46 | 7% | 18% | |
| 47 | 5% | 11% | |
| 48 | 3% | 6% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 9% | 98.5% | |
| 21 | 4% | 90% | |
| 22 | 2% | 86% | |
| 23 | 6% | 84% | |
| 24 | 28% | 79% | |
| 25 | 37% | 50% | Last Result, Median |
| 26 | 4% | 14% | |
| 27 | 4% | 9% | |
| 28 | 3% | 5% | |
| 29 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 16 | 8% | 95% | |
| 17 | 14% | 87% | |
| 18 | 26% | 73% | Median |
| 19 | 10% | 47% | |
| 20 | 14% | 36% | |
| 21 | 12% | 23% | |
| 22 | 6% | 10% | |
| 23 | 2% | 4% | |
| 24 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 12 | 11% | 97% | |
| 13 | 32% | 86% | |
| 14 | 32% | 53% | Median |
| 15 | 11% | 21% | |
| 16 | 5% | 10% | |
| 17 | 2% | 5% | |
| 18 | 2% | 4% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 4% | 96% | |
| 11 | 14% | 92% | Last Result |
| 12 | 31% | 78% | Median |
| 13 | 15% | 46% | |
| 14 | 14% | 31% | |
| 15 | 12% | 17% | |
| 16 | 2% | 6% | |
| 17 | 3% | 4% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 11 | 14% | 97% | |
| 12 | 16% | 83% | |
| 13 | 17% | 67% | |
| 14 | 31% | 50% | Median |
| 15 | 15% | 20% | |
| 16 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 7 | 2% | 97% | |
| 8 | 28% | 95% | |
| 9 | 42% | 67% | Median |
| 10 | 21% | 25% | Last Result |
| 11 | 3% | 4% | |
| 12 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Catalunya en Comú | 60 | 75 | 99.7% | 72–78 | 71–79 | 70–80 | 68–82 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 71 | 92% | 68–74 | 67–76 | 66–77 | 64–79 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Catalunya en Comú – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 63 | 64 | 8% | 61–67 | 59–68 | 58–69 | 56–71 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 49 | 62 | 3% | 59–65 | 58–67 | 57–68 | 55–70 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 52 | 51 | 0% | 48–54 | 47–55 | 46–56 | 44–58 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 70 | 2% | 98% | |
| 71 | 4% | 96% | |
| 72 | 7% | 92% | |
| 73 | 13% | 85% | |
| 74 | 17% | 72% | Median |
| 75 | 15% | 56% | |
| 76 | 15% | 41% | |
| 77 | 11% | 26% | |
| 78 | 7% | 15% | |
| 79 | 4% | 8% | |
| 80 | 2% | 4% | |
| 81 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 4% | 96% | |
| 68 | 8% | 92% | Majority |
| 69 | 11% | 84% | |
| 70 | 14% | 74% | |
| 71 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 72 | 14% | 45% | |
| 73 | 14% | 31% | |
| 74 | 8% | 17% | |
| 75 | 4% | 9% | |
| 76 | 3% | 5% | |
| 77 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Catalunya en Comú – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 58 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 59 | 3% | 97% | |
| 60 | 4% | 95% | |
| 61 | 8% | 91% | |
| 62 | 14% | 83% | |
| 63 | 14% | 69% | Last Result |
| 64 | 14% | 55% | |
| 65 | 14% | 41% | Median |
| 66 | 11% | 26% | |
| 67 | 8% | 16% | |
| 68 | 4% | 8% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98% | |
| 58 | 4% | 97% | |
| 59 | 8% | 93% | |
| 60 | 10% | 85% | |
| 61 | 13% | 75% | |
| 62 | 16% | 62% | Median |
| 63 | 14% | 46% | |
| 64 | 13% | 32% | |
| 65 | 9% | 19% | |
| 66 | 4% | 10% | |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98% | |
| 47 | 4% | 96% | |
| 48 | 6% | 93% | |
| 49 | 10% | 86% | |
| 50 | 15% | 76% | |
| 51 | 16% | 61% | |
| 52 | 16% | 45% | Last Result |
| 53 | 13% | 29% | Median |
| 54 | 8% | 16% | |
| 55 | 4% | 8% | |
| 56 | 2% | 4% | |
| 57 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SocioMétrica
- Commissioner(s): El Español
- Fieldwork period: 28 August–1 September 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 700
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.40%