Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
Voting Intentions
Last result: 8.2% (General Election of 27 September 2015)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 6.1% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.3–8.0% | 3.8–8.7% |
| 13–20 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.2% | 4.7–8.8% |
| 12–19 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
7.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.2–9.0% | 6.0–9.3% | 5.6–9.9% |
| 16–18 December 2017 | GESOP El Periòdic |
4.9% | 4.0–6.0% | 3.8–6.3% | 3.6–6.6% | 3.2–7.2% |
| 11–18 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.7–10.0% |
| 15–17 December 2017 | GESOP El Periòdic |
5.5% | 4.6–6.7% | 4.3–7.0% | 4.1–7.3% | 3.7–7.9% |
| 10–17 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.7% | 6.6–10.0% | 6.1–10.6% |
| 12–16 December 2017 | Netquest L’Indépendant |
6.9% | 5.9–8.1% | 5.6–8.4% | 5.4–8.7% | 5.0–9.4% |
| 14–16 December 2017 | GESOP El Periòdic |
6.5% | 5.5–7.8% | 5.2–8.1% | 5.0–8.4% | 4.5–9.1% |
| 9–16 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
8.5% | 7.5–9.7% | 7.2–10.1% | 6.9–10.4% | 6.4–11.0% |
| 13–15 December 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
6.1% | 5.2–7.4% | 4.9–7.7% | 4.7–8.0% | 4.2–8.6% |
| 11–15 December 2017 | GAD3 ABC |
5.5% | 4.8–6.3% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.5–6.8% | 4.1–7.2% |
| 8–15 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
8.3% | 7.3–9.5% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.7–10.2% | 6.3–10.8% |
| 11–14 December 2017 | Top Position | 7.0% | 6.1–8.0% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.3–9.1% |
| 1–14 December 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
5.9% | 5.2–6.8% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.5–7.7% |
| 12–14 December 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
5.5% | 4.6–6.7% | 4.3–7.0% | 4.1–7.3% | 3.7–7.9% |
| 12–14 December 2017 | GAD3 ABC |
5.6% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.3–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
| 7–14 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.7–10.0% |
| 11–13 December 2017 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
6.4% | 5.7–7.3% | 5.4–7.5% | 5.3–7.7% | 4.9–8.2% |
| 4–13 December 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
5.8% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–8.0% |
| 5–13 December 2017 | MyWord Cadena SER |
5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 4–13 December 2017 | Metroscopia El País |
6.4% | 5.9–7.0% | 5.7–7.1% | 5.6–7.3% | 5.4–7.6% |
| 4–13 December 2017 | Infortécnica Segre |
5.2% | 4.5–6.1% | 4.2–6.4% | 4.1–6.6% | 3.7–7.0% |
| 11–13 December 2017 | A+M 20minutos |
5.6% | 4.9–6.4% | 4.7–6.7% | 4.5–6.9% | 4.2–7.3% |
| 5–12 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
7.7% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.2–9.5% | 5.8–10.1% |
| 3–11 December 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
5.3% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.5% | 4.1–6.8% | 3.7–7.3% |
| 1–9 December 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
5.9% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.8–7.2% | 4.7–7.5% | 4.3–8.0% |
| 27 November–8 December 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
5.5% | 4.8–6.5% | 4.5–6.8% | 4.3–7.1% | 4.0–7.6% |
| 4–8 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
7.4% | 6.4–8.6% | 6.2–8.9% | 5.9–9.2% | 5.5–9.8% |
| 7 December 2017 | Infortécnica Segre |
6.3% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.6% | 5.1–7.8% | 4.7–8.4% |
| 4–7 December 2017 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 3–7 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.2–9.4% |
| 30 November–7 December 2017 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
6.6% | 5.6–7.9% | 5.3–8.3% | 5.1–8.6% | 4.6–9.2% |
| 1–5 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
6.4% | 5.5–7.5% | 5.3–7.8% | 5.0–8.1% | 4.6–8.7% |
| 29 November–2 December 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
6.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.6–7.9% | 4.1–8.5% |
| 27–30 November 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
6.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.6–7.9% | 4.1–8.5% |
| 23–27 November 2017 | IMOP Insights CIS |
6.7% | 6.1–7.3% | 6.0–7.5% | 5.9–7.7% | 5.6–8.0% |
| 13–23 November 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
5.8% | 4.8–7.1% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.3–7.7% | 3.8–8.4% |
| 13–23 November 2017 | Advice Strategic Consultants El Confidencial |
6.1% | 5.4–6.9% | 5.3–7.1% | 5.1–7.3% | 4.8–7.6% |
| 20–22 November 2017 | Metroscopia El País |
5.9% | 5.2–6.8% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.5–7.7% |
| 15–18 November 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
6.2% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.0–7.8% | 4.8–8.2% | 4.3–8.8% |
| 13–16 November 2017 | GAD3 ABC |
5.6% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.4–7.1% | 4.2–7.4% | 3.8–8.0% |
| 30 October–3 November 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
6.3% | 5.3–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.8–8.4% | 4.3–9.1% |
| 30 October–3 November 2017 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| 27–31 October 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.4–7.3% | 4.1–7.9% |
| 16–29 October 2017 | GESOP CEO |
6.2% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.0–7.6% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.5–8.4% |
| 23–26 October 2017 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| 16–21 October 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
5.6% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.3–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
| 16–19 October 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
7.8% | 6.7–9.1% | 6.3–9.5% | 6.1–9.8% | 5.6–10.5% |
| 4–9 October 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
6.2% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.0–7.8% | 4.8–8.2% | 4.3–8.8% |
| 19–22 September 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
5.6% | 4.8–6.5% | 4.6–6.8% | 4.4–7.0% | 4.1–7.5% |
| 12–15 September 2017 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
5.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.7–7.4% | 4.5–7.7% | 4.0–8.4% |
| 28 August–1 September 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
6.9% | 5.8–8.2% | 5.5–8.6% | 5.2–9.0% | 4.7–9.7% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Candidatura d’Unitat Popular.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 23% | 95% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 41% | 72% | Median |
| 6.5–7.5% | 25% | 31% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 5% | 6% | Last Result |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 10 seats (General Election of 27 September 2015)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 8 | 5–9 | 4–10 | 3–10 | 3–10 |
| 13–20 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
8 | 8–9 | 7–10 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| 12–19 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 8–12 |
| 16–18 December 2017 | GESOP El Periòdic |
5 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 2–9 |
| 11–18 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 8–12 |
| 15–17 December 2017 | GESOP El Periòdic |
8 | 4–8 | 3–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
| 10–17 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
10 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–15 |
| 12–16 December 2017 | Netquest L’Indépendant |
9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 5–12 |
| 14–16 December 2017 | GESOP El Periòdic |
8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 4–11 |
| 9–16 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
10 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–14 | 8–15 |
| 13–15 December 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 3–10 |
| 11–15 December 2017 | GAD3 ABC |
7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 3–9 |
| 8–15 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
10 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–15 |
| 11–14 December 2017 | Top Position | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| 1–14 December 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
8 | 7–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–9 |
| 12–14 December 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
8 | 5–9 | 3–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
| 12–14 December 2017 | GAD3 ABC |
8 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 3–9 | 3–9 |
| 7–14 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 8–12 |
| 11–13 December 2017 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
8 | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 5–10 |
| 4–13 December 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 3–10 |
| 5–13 December 2017 | MyWord Cadena SER |
6 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 3–9 |
| 4–13 December 2017 | Metroscopia El País |
8 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 7–9 |
| 4–13 December 2017 | Infortécnica Segre |
5 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 3–9 |
| 11–13 December 2017 | A+M 20minutos |
8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 3–9 |
| 5–12 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
9 | 8–10 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 |
| 3–11 December 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
7 | 4–8 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 3–9 |
| 1–9 December 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 3–10 |
| 27 November–8 December 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
8 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 4–9 | 3–9 |
| 4–8 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| 7 December 2017 | Infortécnica Segre |
8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| 4–7 December 2017 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
5 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 3–9 |
| 3–7 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 6–12 |
| 30 November–7 December 2017 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
8 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 5–10 | 5–12 |
| 1–5 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 4–10 |
| 29 November–2 December 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 3–10 |
| 27–30 November 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–10 | 3–10 |
| 23–27 November 2017 | IMOP Insights CIS |
9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–10 |
| 13–23 November 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
8 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 3–10 | 3–10 |
| 13–23 November 2017 | Advice Strategic Consultants El Confidencial |
8 | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 5–10 |
| 20–22 November 2017 | Metroscopia El País |
8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–9 |
| 15–18 November 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
8 | 7–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 3–11 |
| 13–16 November 2017 | GAD3 ABC |
8 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
| 30 October–3 November 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 3–12 |
| 30 October–3 November 2017 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 4–10 |
| 27–31 October 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 3–10 |
| 16–29 October 2017 | GESOP CEO |
8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 4–10 |
| 23–26 October 2017 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| 16–21 October 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 3–10 |
| 16–19 October 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
10 | 9–11 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–15 |
| 4–9 October 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
8 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 4–11 |
| 19–22 September 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 3–9 |
| 12–15 September 2017 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 3–10 |
| 28 August–1 September 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 6–11 | 5–12 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Candidatura d’Unitat Popular.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 2% | 96% | |
| 5 | 9% | 94% | |
| 6 | 4% | 85% | |
| 7 | 8% | 80% | |
| 8 | 43% | 73% | Median |
| 9 | 25% | 30% | |
| 10 | 5% | 5% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |