Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 39.6% (General Election of 27 September 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 22.5% 19.7–25.5% 18.7–26.5% 17.8–27.2% 16.6–28.3%
13–20 December 2017 Feedback
The National		 21.2% 19.6–22.9% 19.2–23.4% 18.8–23.9% 18.0–24.7%
12–19 December 2017 Feedback
The National		 21.9% 20.3–23.7% 19.8–24.1% 19.4–24.6% 18.7–25.4%
16–18 December 2017 GESOP
El Periòdic		 23.2% 21.4–25.3% 20.9–25.8% 20.5–26.3% 19.6–27.3%
11–18 December 2017 Feedback
The National		 21.2% 19.6–22.9% 19.2–23.4% 18.8–23.9% 18.0–24.7%
15–17 December 2017 GESOP
El Periòdic		 21.2% 19.5–23.2% 19.0–23.7% 18.5–24.2% 17.7–25.2%
10–17 December 2017 Feedback
The National		 21.1% 19.5–22.8% 19.1–23.3% 18.7–23.7% 17.9–24.6%
12–16 December 2017 Netquest
L’Indépendant		 22.0% 20.3–23.9% 19.8–24.4% 19.4–24.8% 18.6–25.7%
14–16 December 2017 GESOP
El Periòdic		 21.2% 19.5–23.2% 19.0–23.7% 18.5–24.2% 17.7–25.2%
9–16 December 2017 Feedback
The National		 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.3% 17.6–24.2%
13–15 December 2017 GESOP
El Periódico		 22.1% 20.3–24.1% 19.8–24.6% 19.4–25.1% 18.5–26.1%
11–15 December 2017 GAD3
ABC		 20.3% 19.1–21.7% 18.7–22.1% 18.4–22.5% 17.8–23.1%
8–15 December 2017 Feedback
El Nacional		 20.9% 19.3–22.6% 18.9–23.1% 18.5–23.5% 17.8–24.4%
11–14 December 2017 Top Position 18.2% 16.8–19.7% 16.4–20.1% 16.1–20.5% 15.4–21.2%
1–14 December 2017 SocioMétrica
El Español		 21.1% 19.8–22.5% 19.4–22.9% 19.1–23.3% 18.5–24.0%
12–14 December 2017 GESOP
El Periódico		 22.2% 20.4–24.2% 19.9–24.8% 19.5–25.3% 18.7–26.2%
12–14 December 2017 GAD3
ABC		 20.3% 18.7–22.0% 18.3–22.5% 17.9–22.9% 17.2–23.7%
7–14 December 2017 Feedback
El Nacional		 21.2% 19.6–22.9% 19.2–23.4% 18.8–23.9% 18.0–24.7%
11–13 December 2017 Sigma Dos
El Mundo		 22.5% 21.2–23.9% 20.8–24.3% 20.5–24.7% 19.9–25.4%
4–13 December 2017 NC Report
La Razón		 22.4% 20.8–24.2% 20.3–24.7% 19.9–25.1% 19.2–26.0%
5–13 December 2017 MyWord
Cadena SER		 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.1% 21.0–27.9%
4–13 December 2017 Metroscopia
El País		 23.1% 22.2–24.1% 21.9–24.3% 21.7–24.6% 21.2–25.0%
4–13 December 2017 Infortécnica
Segre		 23.6% 22.1–25.2% 21.7–25.7% 21.3–26.1% 20.6–26.9%
11–13 December 2017 A+M
20minutos		 24.6% 23.2–26.1% 22.8–26.5% 22.5–26.9% 21.8–27.6%
5–12 December 2017 Feedback
El Nacional		 20.9% 19.3–22.6% 18.9–23.1% 18.5–23.5% 17.8–24.4%
3–11 December 2017 SocioMétrica
El Español		 21.5% 20.0–23.2% 19.6–23.7% 19.2–24.1% 18.5–24.9%
1–9 December 2017 SocioMétrica
El Español		 21.4% 19.8–23.0% 19.4–23.5% 19.0–23.9% 18.3–24.7%
27 November–8 December 2017 SocioMétrica
El Español		 22.5% 21.0–24.2% 20.5–24.7% 20.2–25.1% 19.4–25.9%
4–8 December 2017 Feedback
El Nacional		 22.3% 20.7–24.1% 20.2–24.6% 19.8–25.0% 19.1–25.8%
7 December 2017 Infortécnica
Segre		 23.3% 21.8–24.9% 21.3–25.3% 21.0–25.7% 20.3–26.5%
4–7 December 2017 GAD3
La Vanguardia		 21.5% 19.9–23.2% 19.4–23.7% 19.1–24.2% 18.3–25.0%
3–7 December 2017 Feedback
El Nacional		 23.1% 21.4–24.9% 21.0–25.4% 20.6–25.8% 19.8–26.7%
30 November–7 December 2017 Celeste-Tel
eldiario.es		 22.9% 21.0–24.9% 20.5–25.4% 20.1–25.9% 19.3–26.9%
1–5 December 2017 Feedback
El Nacional		 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
29 November–2 December 2017 GESOP
El Periódico		 20.5% 18.7–22.4% 18.3–23.0% 17.8–23.4% 17.0–24.4%
27–30 November 2017 SocioMétrica
El Español		 23.1% 21.3–25.1% 20.8–25.7% 20.3–26.2% 19.5–27.2%
23–27 November 2017 IMOP Insights
CIS		 20.8% 19.9–21.8% 19.6–22.1% 19.4–22.3% 18.9–22.8%
13–23 November 2017 NC Report
La Razón		 24.1% 22.1–26.2% 21.5–26.8% 21.0–27.3% 20.1–28.4%
13–23 November 2017 Advice Strategic Consultants
El Confidencial		 26.7% 25.4–28.1% 25.1–28.4% 24.8–28.8% 24.2–29.4%
20–22 November 2017 Metroscopia
El País		 26.5% 25.1–28.1% 24.7–28.5% 24.3–28.9% 23.6–29.6%
15–18 November 2017 GESOP
El Periódico		 23.9% 22.0–25.9% 21.5–26.5% 21.0–27.0% 20.2–27.9%
13–16 November 2017 GAD3
ABC		 23.1% 21.3–25.1% 20.7–25.7% 20.3–26.2% 19.4–27.1%
30 October–3 November 2017 NC Report
La Razón		 26.3% 24.3–28.5% 23.7–29.2% 23.2–29.7% 22.3–30.8%
30 October–3 November 2017 GAD3
La Vanguardia		 29.3% 27.5–31.2% 27.0–31.8% 26.6–32.2% 25.7–33.2%
27–31 October 2017 SocioMétrica
El Español		 31.2% 29.4–33.1% 28.8–33.7% 28.4–34.1% 27.5–35.1%
16–29 October 2017 GESOP
CEO		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
23–26 October 2017 Sigma Dos
El Mundo		 26.4% 24.7–28.2% 24.2–28.8% 23.8–29.2% 22.9–30.1%
16–21 October 2017 NC Report
La Razón		 24.6% 22.9–26.4% 22.4–26.9% 22.0–27.4% 21.2–28.3%
16–19 October 2017 GESOP
El Periódico		 28.1% 26.2–30.2% 25.6–30.8% 25.1–31.4% 24.2–32.4%
4–9 October 2017 SocioMétrica
El Español		 31.8% 29.7–33.9% 29.1–34.5% 28.6–35.1% 27.6–36.1%
19–22 September 2017 NC Report
La Razón		 25.1% 23.6–26.7% 23.1–27.2% 22.8–27.6% 22.1–28.4%
12–15 September 2017 Celeste-Tel
eldiario.es		 24.8% 22.9–26.8% 22.3–27.4% 21.9–27.9% 21.0–28.9%
28 August–1 September 2017 SocioMétrica
El Español		 28.0% 25.9–30.3% 25.3–30.9% 24.8–31.4% 23.8–32.5%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14.5–15.5% 0% 100%  
15.5–16.5% 0.4% 100%  
16.5–17.5% 1.4% 99.6%  
17.5–18.5% 3% 98%  
18.5–19.5% 4% 95%  
19.5–20.5% 10% 91%  
20.5–21.5% 15% 81%  
21.5–22.5% 17% 66%  
22.5–23.5% 18% 49% Median
23.5–24.5% 13% 31%  
24.5–25.5% 8% 18%  
25.5–26.5% 5% 10%  
26.5–27.5% 3% 5%  
27.5–28.5% 1.3% 2%  
28.5–29.5% 0.3% 0.3%  
29.5–30.5% 0% 0%  
30.5–31.5% 0% 0%  
31.5–32.5% 0% 0%  
32.5–33.5% 0% 0%  
33.5–34.5% 0% 0%  
34.5–35.5% 0% 0%  
35.5–36.5% 0% 0%  
36.5–37.5% 0% 0%  
37.5–38.5% 0% 0%  
38.5–39.5% 0% 0%  
39.5–40.5% 0% 0% Last Result

Seats

Last result: 20 seats (General Election of 27 September 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 34 30–39 29–42 27–43 26–45
13–20 December 2017 Feedback
The National		 32 29–35 29–36 28–36 26–38
12–19 December 2017 Feedback
The National		 33 30–36 30–37 29–37 28–38
16–18 December 2017 GESOP
El Periòdic		 36 32–39 31–40 31–41 29–42
11–18 December 2017 Feedback
The National		 32 29–35 29–36 28–37 26–38
15–17 December 2017 GESOP
El Periòdic		 32 29–35 29–36 29–37 26–38
10–17 December 2017 Feedback
The National		 32 29–35 29–35 28–36 26–37
12–16 December 2017 Netquest
L’Indépendant		 34 31–37 31–38 30–38 29–40
14–16 December 2017 GESOP
El Periòdic		 32 29–35 29–36 28–37 26–38
9–16 December 2017 Feedback
The National		 31 29–34 28–35 27–36 26–37
13–15 December 2017 GESOP
El Periódico		 34 31–37 30–38 29–38 28–40
11–15 December 2017 GAD3
ABC		 31 29–32 28–33 27–34 26–35
8–15 December 2017 Feedback
El Nacional		 31 29–34 29–35 28–36 26–37
11–14 December 2017 Top Position 28 26–31 25–32 25–32 24–33
1–14 December 2017 SocioMétrica
El Español		 32 30–34 29–35 29–35 28–37
12–14 December 2017 GESOP
El Periódico		 34 31–37 30–38 29–38 28–40
12–14 December 2017 GAD3
ABC		 31 28–33 27–34 26–35 25–36
7–14 December 2017 Feedback
El Nacional		 32 29–35 29–36 28–36 26–38
11–13 December 2017 Sigma Dos
El Mundo		 35 32–37 32–38 31–38 31–39
4–13 December 2017 NC Report
La Razón		 35 32–37 31–38 30–38 29–40
5–13 December 2017 MyWord
Cadena SER		 37 35–40 33–41 32–42 31–43
4–13 December 2017 Metroscopia
El País		 35 34–37 33–38 33–38 32–39
4–13 December 2017 Infortécnica
Segre		 35 32–38 32–38 32–39 30–40
11–13 December 2017 A+M
20minutos		 37 35–39 34–40 34–41 32–42
5–12 December 2017 Feedback
El Nacional		 31 29–34 29–35 28–36 26–37
3–11 December 2017 SocioMétrica
El Español		 33 30–36 29–36 29–37 28–38
1–9 December 2017 SocioMétrica
El Español		 32 30–35 29–36 29–37 28–38
27 November–8 December 2017 SocioMétrica
El Español		 35 32–38 31–38 31–39 30–40
4–8 December 2017 Feedback
El Nacional		 33 31–37 30–37 30–38 28–39
7 December 2017 Infortécnica
Segre		 35 32–37 32–38 31–38 30–39
4–7 December 2017 GAD3
La Vanguardia		 32 30–35 29–36 29–37 27–38
3–7 December 2017 Feedback
El Nacional		 36 32–38 32–39 31–40 30–41
30 November–7 December 2017 Celeste-Tel
eldiario.es		 35 31–38 31–38 30–39 29–41
1–5 December 2017 Feedback
El Nacional		 36 34–39 32–40 32–40 31–42
29 November–2 December 2017 GESOP
El Periódico		 31 28–34 28–35 27–36 25–37
27–30 November 2017 SocioMétrica
El Español		 36 32–39 32–39 31–40 30–42
23–27 November 2017 IMOP Insights
CIS		 32 30–33 30–34 30–35 29–35
13–23 November 2017 NC Report
La Razón		 37 34–41 33–42 32–43 31–44
13–23 November 2017 Advice Strategic Consultants
El Confidencial		 43 41–44 40–45 39–46 38–47
20–22 November 2017 Metroscopia
El País		 40 38–43 37–44 37–44 36–45
15–18 November 2017 GESOP
El Periódico		 37 33–39 32–40 32–41 31–43
13–16 November 2017 GAD3
ABC		 35 32–38 31–39 30–40 29–42
30 October–3 November 2017 NC Report
La Razón		 41 37–44 37–45 36–46 35–48
30 October–3 November 2017 GAD3
La Vanguardia		 45 42–48 41–49 40–50 39–51
27–31 October 2017 SocioMétrica
El Español		 49 45–51 45–52 44–53 43–55
16–29 October 2017 GESOP
CEO		          
23–26 October 2017 Sigma Dos
El Mundo		 41 38–44 37–44 37–45 35–47
16–21 October 2017 NC Report
La Razón		 38 36–42 35–43 35–43 33–44
16–19 October 2017 GESOP
El Periódico		 44 41–48 40–49 39–50 38–51
4–9 October 2017 SocioMétrica
El Español		 50 46–53 45–54 45–55 43–56
19–22 September 2017 NC Report
La Razón		 39 37–42 36–43 36–43 34–44
12–15 September 2017 Celeste-Tel
eldiario.es		 38 35–41 34–42 33–43 31–44
28 August–1 September 2017 SocioMétrica
El Español		 44 40–47 39–48 38–49 37–51

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 1.1% 99.5%  
27 1.1% 98%  
28 2% 97%  
29 3% 95%  
30 5% 92%  
31 9% 87%  
32 14% 77%  
33 7% 64%  
34 8% 57% Median
35 12% 49%  
36 11% 37%  
37 9% 26%  
38 6% 17%  
39 2% 11%  
40 2% 9%  
41 1.4% 7%  
42 2% 6%  
43 2% 4%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.6%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%