Partit Popular
Voting Intentions
Last result: 8.5% (General Election of 27 September 2015)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 5.8% | 4.7–7.5% | 4.4–8.0% | 4.2–8.4% | 3.7–9.1% |
| 13–20 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 12–19 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 16–18 December 2017 | GESOP El Periòdic |
4.8% | 3.9–5.9% | 3.7–6.2% | 3.5–6.5% | 3.1–7.0% |
| 11–18 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
5.8% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–8.0% |
| 15–17 December 2017 | GESOP El Periòdic |
5.0% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.7–6.8% | 3.3–7.3% |
| 10–17 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.4–7.3% | 4.1–7.9% |
| 12–16 December 2017 | Netquest L’Indépendant |
5.4% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.3–6.9% | 4.1–7.1% | 3.8–7.7% |
| 14–16 December 2017 | GESOP El Periòdic |
5.6% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.5–7.1% | 4.2–7.5% | 3.8–8.1% |
| 9–16 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.4–7.3% | 4.1–7.9% |
| 13–15 December 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
5.4% | 4.5–6.5% | 4.2–6.9% | 4.0–7.2% | 3.6–7.8% |
| 11–15 December 2017 | GAD3 ABC |
5.4% | 4.7–6.3% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.4–6.7% | 4.1–7.1% |
| 8–15 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
5.6% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.3–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
| 11–14 December 2017 | Top Position | 5.5% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.7% | 4.3–7.0% | 4.0–7.4% |
| 1–14 December 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
5.5% | 4.8–6.4% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.5–6.8% | 4.2–7.2% |
| 12–14 December 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
5.6% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.5–7.1% | 4.2–7.5% | 3.8–8.1% |
| 12–14 December 2017 | GAD3 ABC |
6.2% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.1–7.6% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.5–8.4% |
| 7–14 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.4–7.3% | 4.1–7.9% |
| 11–13 December 2017 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
5.8% | 5.1–6.6% | 4.9–6.9% | 4.7–7.1% | 4.4–7.5% |
| 4–13 December 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
7.3% | 6.3–8.5% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.8–9.1% | 5.4–9.7% |
| 5–13 December 2017 | MyWord Cadena SER |
4.8% | 4.0–5.8% | 3.8–6.0% | 3.6–6.3% | 3.3–6.8% |
| 4–13 December 2017 | Metroscopia El País |
5.4% | 4.9–5.9% | 4.8–6.1% | 4.7–6.2% | 4.5–6.5% |
| 4–13 December 2017 | Infortécnica Segre |
6.3% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.6% | 5.1–7.8% | 4.7–8.4% |
| 11–13 December 2017 | A+M 20minutos |
5.4% | 4.7–6.2% | 4.5–6.5% | 4.4–6.7% | 4.1–7.1% |
| 5–12 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
5.4% | 4.6–6.4% | 4.3–6.7% | 4.2–7.0% | 3.8–7.5% |
| 3–11 December 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 1–9 December 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
6.1% | 5.3–7.1% | 5.0–7.4% | 4.8–7.7% | 4.5–8.2% |
| 27 November–8 December 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
5.4% | 4.6–6.3% | 4.4–6.6% | 4.2–6.9% | 3.8–7.4% |
| 4–8 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% |
| 7 December 2017 | Infortécnica Segre |
5.6% | 4.8–6.5% | 4.6–6.8% | 4.4–7.0% | 4.1–7.5% |
| 4–7 December 2017 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.2–9.4% |
| 3–7 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
6.2% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.1–7.6% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.5–8.4% |
| 30 November–7 December 2017 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
6.8% | 5.7–8.0% | 5.4–8.4% | 5.2–8.7% | 4.8–9.4% |
| 1–5 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
6.2% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.1–7.6% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.5–8.4% |
| 29 November–2 December 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
5.8% | 4.8–7.0% | 4.6–7.3% | 4.3–7.6% | 3.9–8.2% |
| 27–30 November 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
6.2% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.0–7.8% | 4.8–8.2% | 4.3–8.8% |
| 23–27 November 2017 | IMOP Insights CIS |
5.8% | 5.3–6.4% | 5.1–6.6% | 5.0–6.7% | 4.8–7.0% |
| 13–23 November 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
9.3% | 8.0–10.8% | 7.7–11.3% | 7.4–11.6% | 6.8–12.4% |
| 13–23 November 2017 | Advice Strategic Consultants El Confidencial |
7.9% | 7.1–8.7% | 6.9–9.0% | 6.7–9.2% | 6.4–9.6% |
| 20–22 November 2017 | Metroscopia El País |
5.8% | 5.1–6.7% | 4.9–7.0% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.4–7.6% |
| 15–18 November 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
5.8% | 4.8–7.0% | 4.6–7.3% | 4.3–7.6% | 3.9–8.2% |
| 13–16 November 2017 | GAD3 ABC |
7.7% | 6.6–9.1% | 6.3–9.5% | 6.1–9.8% | 5.6–10.5% |
| 30 October–3 November 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
10.6% | 9.2–12.2% | 8.8–12.7% | 8.5–13.0% | 7.9–13.9% |
| 30 October–3 November 2017 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
8.7% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.4–10.3% | 7.1–10.6% | 6.6–11.2% |
| 27–31 October 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| 16–29 October 2017 | GESOP CEO |
8.3% | 7.2–9.5% | 7.0–9.8% | 6.7–10.1% | 6.2–10.8% |
| 23–26 October 2017 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
8.7% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.3–10.3% | 7.1–10.6% | 6.6–11.2% |
| 16–21 October 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
10.5% | 9.3–11.8% | 9.0–12.2% | 8.7–12.6% | 8.2–13.2% |
| 16–19 October 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
7.5% | 6.4–8.8% | 6.1–9.2% | 5.9–9.5% | 5.4–10.2% |
| 4–9 October 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
10.1% | 8.9–11.6% | 8.5–12.0% | 8.2–12.4% | 7.7–13.2% |
| 19–22 September 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
10.8% | 9.8–12.0% | 9.5–12.4% | 9.2–12.7% | 8.7–13.3% |
| 12–15 September 2017 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
9.4% | 8.2–10.8% | 7.8–11.2% | 7.5–11.6% | 7.0–12.3% |
| 28 August–1 September 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
10.6% | 9.2–12.2% | 8.8–12.7% | 8.5–13.1% | 7.9–13.9% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Partit Popular.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 33% | 93% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 36% | 61% | Median |
| 6.5–7.5% | 14% | 24% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 8% | 10% | Last Result |
| 8.5–9.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 11 seats (General Election of 27 September 2015)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 6 | 5–10 | 4–10 | 3–11 | 3–12 |
| 13–20 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
7 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 3–10 |
| 12–19 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
6 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 4–10 |
| 16–18 December 2017 | GESOP El Periòdic |
5 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 2–9 |
| 11–18 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
6 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 3–10 |
| 15–17 December 2017 | GESOP El Periòdic |
5 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 3–9 |
| 10–17 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
6 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 3–10 |
| 12–16 December 2017 | Netquest L’Indépendant |
6 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
| 14–16 December 2017 | GESOP El Periòdic |
6 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
| 9–16 December 2017 | Feedback The National |
6 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 3–10 |
| 13–15 December 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
6 | 5–8 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
| 11–15 December 2017 | GAD3 ABC |
6 | 5–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–9 |
| 8–15 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
6 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 3–10 |
| 11–14 December 2017 | Top Position | 6 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 3–10 |
| 1–14 December 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 3–9 |
| 12–14 December 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
6 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
| 12–14 December 2017 | GAD3 ABC |
7 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 4–10 |
| 7–14 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
6 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 3–10 |
| 11–13 December 2017 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
6 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–10 |
| 4–13 December 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 6–12 | 6–13 |
| 5–13 December 2017 | MyWord Cadena SER |
5 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–8 |
| 4–13 December 2017 | Metroscopia El País |
6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 4–13 December 2017 | Infortécnica Segre |
7 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| 11–13 December 2017 | A+M 20minutos |
6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 3–8 |
| 5–12 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
6 | 5–7 | 4–8 | 3–9 | 3–9 |
| 3–11 December 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
5 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 3–8 |
| 1–9 December 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
7 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| 27 November–8 December 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
6 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 3–8 | 3–10 |
| 4–8 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
7 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 4–10 |
| 7 December 2017 | Infortécnica Segre |
6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 3–9 |
| 4–7 December 2017 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
9 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 5–12 |
| 3–7 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
7 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| 30 November–7 December 2017 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
8 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–11 | 5–12 |
| 1–5 December 2017 | Feedback El Nacional |
7 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| 29 November–2 December 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
6 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–10 | 3–10 |
| 27–30 November 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
7 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 4–12 |
| 23–27 November 2017 | IMOP Insights CIS |
7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 13–23 November 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
12 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 9–15 | 8–16 |
| 13–23 November 2017 | Advice Strategic Consultants El Confidencial |
10 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 |
| 20–22 November 2017 | Metroscopia El País |
6 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–10 |
| 15–18 November 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
6 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–10 | 3–10 |
| 13–16 November 2017 | GAD3 ABC |
10 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 7–13 | 6–13 |
| 30 October–3 November 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
13 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 10–18 | 10–19 |
| 30 October–3 November 2017 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
11 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| 27–31 October 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
12 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 8–15 |
| 16–29 October 2017 | GESOP CEO |
10 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 7–14 |
| 23–26 October 2017 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
12 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| 16–21 October 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
13 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 10–19 |
| 16–19 October 2017 | GESOP El Periódico |
10 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 6–13 | 6–13 |
| 4–9 October 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
13 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 | 10–18 |
| 19–22 September 2017 | NC Report La Razón |
14 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 12–19 |
| 12–15 September 2017 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
12 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 8–16 |
| 28 August–1 September 2017 | SocioMétrica El Español |
14 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 11–18 | 10–19 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Partit Popular.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 2% | 97% | |
| 5 | 25% | 95% | |
| 6 | 28% | 70% | Median |
| 7 | 15% | 42% | |
| 8 | 10% | 28% | |
| 9 | 6% | 18% | |
| 10 | 8% | 11% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |