Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 4–9 October 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 31.8% | 29.7–33.9% | 29.1–34.5% | 28.6–35.1% | 27.6–36.1% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 18.2% | 16.6–20.1% | 16.1–20.6% | 15.7–21.1% | 15.0–22.0% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 12.0% | 10.6–13.6% | 10.2–14.1% | 9.9–14.4% | 9.3–15.2% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.9–11.6% | 8.5–12.0% | 8.2–12.4% | 7.7–13.2% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 9.5% | 8.3–11.0% | 7.9–11.4% | 7.7–11.7% | 7.1–12.5% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 39.6% | 8.1% | 7.0–9.5% | 6.7–9.9% | 6.4–10.2% | 5.9–10.9% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.0–7.8% | 4.8–8.2% | 4.3–8.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 50 | 46–53 | 45–54 | 45–55 | 43–56 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 25 | 22–27 | 21–28 | 21–29 | 20–31 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 15 | 13–18 | 12–18 | 12–18 | 11–19 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 13 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 | 10–18 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 12 | 11–14 | 9–15 | 9–15 | 8–16 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 29 | 11 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–15 | 7–16 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 8 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 4–11 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 45 | 3% | 98% | |
| 46 | 6% | 95% | |
| 47 | 6% | 89% | |
| 48 | 11% | 83% | |
| 49 | 15% | 72% | |
| 50 | 21% | 57% | Median |
| 51 | 18% | 36% | |
| 52 | 7% | 18% | |
| 53 | 5% | 11% | |
| 54 | 3% | 6% | |
| 55 | 2% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 5% | 98% | |
| 22 | 4% | 93% | |
| 23 | 6% | 90% | |
| 24 | 16% | 84% | |
| 25 | 29% | 68% | Last Result, Median |
| 26 | 22% | 38% | |
| 27 | 7% | 16% | |
| 28 | 4% | 9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 4% | |
| 30 | 2% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 12 | 8% | 98.8% | |
| 13 | 10% | 91% | |
| 14 | 14% | 81% | |
| 15 | 26% | 66% | Median |
| 16 | 10% | 40% | |
| 17 | 20% | 30% | |
| 18 | 8% | 11% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 12 | 18% | 94% | |
| 13 | 38% | 76% | Median |
| 14 | 28% | 39% | |
| 15 | 8% | 11% | |
| 16 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 10 | 3% | 94% | |
| 11 | 26% | 91% | |
| 12 | 19% | 65% | Median |
| 13 | 18% | 46% | |
| 14 | 21% | 28% | |
| 15 | 6% | 7% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 8 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 9 | 10% | 96% | |
| 10 | 16% | 86% | |
| 11 | 27% | 70% | Median |
| 12 | 8% | 43% | |
| 13 | 26% | 35% | |
| 14 | 6% | 8% | |
| 15 | 2% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 5 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 6 | 6% | 95% | |
| 7 | 4% | 89% | |
| 8 | 45% | 85% | Median |
| 9 | 32% | 41% | |
| 10 | 8% | 8% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 60 | 76 | 100% | 73–80 | 72–81 | 71–81 | 70–83 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 69 | 76% | 66–73 | 65–73 | 64–74 | 63–76 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 63 | 66 | 24% | 62–69 | 62–70 | 61–71 | 59–72 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 49 | 61 | 0.7% | 58–64 | 57–65 | 56–66 | 54–68 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 52 | 51 | 0% | 47–54 | 46–54 | 46–55 | 44–57 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 71 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 72 | 4% | 97% | |
| 73 | 7% | 94% | |
| 74 | 12% | 87% | |
| 75 | 14% | 75% | |
| 76 | 15% | 62% | Median |
| 77 | 16% | 46% | |
| 78 | 12% | 30% | |
| 79 | 8% | 18% | |
| 80 | 5% | 10% | |
| 81 | 3% | 5% | |
| 82 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 65 | 4% | 97% | |
| 66 | 6% | 93% | |
| 67 | 11% | 87% | |
| 68 | 16% | 76% | Majority |
| 69 | 15% | 60% | Median |
| 70 | 13% | 44% | |
| 71 | 11% | 31% | |
| 72 | 9% | 20% | |
| 73 | 6% | 11% | |
| 74 | 3% | 4% | |
| 75 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 61 | 3% | 98% | |
| 62 | 6% | 96% | |
| 63 | 9% | 89% | Last Result |
| 64 | 11% | 80% | |
| 65 | 13% | 69% | Median |
| 66 | 15% | 56% | |
| 67 | 16% | 40% | |
| 68 | 11% | 24% | Majority |
| 69 | 6% | 13% | |
| 70 | 4% | 7% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 4% | 96% | |
| 58 | 7% | 93% | |
| 59 | 13% | 86% | |
| 60 | 16% | 73% | |
| 61 | 14% | 57% | Median |
| 62 | 13% | 42% | |
| 63 | 12% | 30% | |
| 64 | 10% | 18% | |
| 65 | 5% | 8% | |
| 66 | 2% | 4% | |
| 67 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 0.7% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 46 | 3% | 98% | |
| 47 | 5% | 95% | |
| 48 | 8% | 90% | |
| 49 | 13% | 81% | |
| 50 | 17% | 68% | Median |
| 51 | 16% | 51% | |
| 52 | 13% | 35% | Last Result |
| 53 | 11% | 21% | |
| 54 | 6% | 10% | |
| 55 | 3% | 5% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SocioMétrica
- Commissioner(s): El Español
- Fieldwork period: 4–9 October 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.75%