Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periódico, 16–19 October 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 28.1% | 26.2–30.2% | 25.6–30.8% | 25.1–31.4% | 24.2–32.4% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 16.8% | 15.2–18.5% | 14.7–19.1% | 14.3–19.5% | 13.6–20.4% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 14.5% | 13.0–16.2% | 12.6–16.7% | 12.2–17.1% | 11.5–18.0% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 39.6% | 12.0% | 10.6–13.6% | 10.2–14.1% | 9.9–14.4% | 9.3–15.2% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.8–10.4% | 7.5–10.8% | 7.2–11.2% | 6.7–11.9% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.7–9.1% | 6.3–9.5% | 6.1–9.8% | 5.6–10.5% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.4–8.8% | 6.1–9.2% | 5.9–9.5% | 5.4–10.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 44 | 41–48 | 40–49 | 39–50 | 38–51 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 24 | 20–25 | 20–26 | 19–26 | 18–28 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 20 | 16–22 | 16–23 | 16–23 | 15–24 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 29 | 18 | 15–21 | 15–21 | 14–22 | 13–23 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 11 | 9–12 | 8–14 | 8–14 | 7–15 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 10 | 9–11 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–15 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 10 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 6–13 | 6–13 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 40 | 3% | 97% | |
| 41 | 6% | 94% | |
| 42 | 11% | 88% | |
| 43 | 14% | 77% | |
| 44 | 22% | 63% | Median |
| 45 | 13% | 41% | |
| 46 | 9% | 28% | |
| 47 | 6% | 19% | |
| 48 | 6% | 13% | |
| 49 | 3% | 7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 19 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 20 | 11% | 97% | |
| 21 | 8% | 86% | |
| 22 | 12% | 78% | |
| 23 | 11% | 66% | |
| 24 | 27% | 55% | Median |
| 25 | 19% | 28% | Last Result |
| 26 | 7% | 9% | |
| 27 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 10% | 98% | Last Result |
| 17 | 16% | 88% | |
| 18 | 9% | 72% | |
| 19 | 10% | 63% | |
| 20 | 22% | 54% | Median |
| 21 | 11% | 32% | |
| 22 | 11% | 21% | |
| 23 | 7% | 9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 15 | 7% | 96% | |
| 16 | 8% | 89% | |
| 17 | 26% | 82% | |
| 18 | 23% | 55% | Median |
| 19 | 14% | 32% | |
| 20 | 7% | 18% | |
| 21 | 8% | 11% | |
| 22 | 2% | 3% | |
| 23 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 7% | 99.5% | |
| 9 | 25% | 93% | |
| 10 | 13% | 68% | |
| 11 | 24% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 12 | 21% | 30% | |
| 13 | 3% | 9% | |
| 14 | 4% | 6% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 32% | 93% | |
| 10 | 41% | 61% | Last Result, Median |
| 11 | 11% | 20% | |
| 12 | 6% | 9% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 14 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 4% | 97% | |
| 8 | 16% | 93% | |
| 9 | 16% | 77% | |
| 10 | 38% | 61% | Median |
| 11 | 6% | 23% | Last Result |
| 12 | 13% | 17% | |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 72 | 95% | 68–76 | 67–77 | 67–78 | 65–80 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Catalunya en Comú | 60 | 73 | 97% | 69–76 | 68–78 | 67–78 | 66–80 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular | 63 | 63 | 5% | 59–67 | 58–68 | 57–68 | 55–70 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 49 | 62 | 3% | 59–66 | 58–67 | 57–68 | 55–70 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 52 | 52 | 0% | 49–56 | 48–57 | 47–58 | 45–59 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 1.5% | 99.1% | |
| 67 | 3% | 98% | |
| 68 | 5% | 95% | Majority |
| 69 | 8% | 90% | |
| 70 | 11% | 82% | |
| 71 | 13% | 71% | |
| 72 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 73 | 12% | 43% | |
| 74 | 11% | 30% | |
| 75 | 8% | 19% | |
| 76 | 5% | 12% | |
| 77 | 3% | 6% | |
| 78 | 2% | 3% | |
| 79 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 68 | 3% | 97% | Majority |
| 69 | 6% | 94% | |
| 70 | 9% | 88% | |
| 71 | 13% | 79% | |
| 72 | 12% | 65% | |
| 73 | 14% | 53% | Median |
| 74 | 12% | 39% | |
| 75 | 11% | 28% | |
| 76 | 7% | 17% | |
| 77 | 4% | 10% | |
| 78 | 3% | 5% | |
| 79 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98% | |
| 58 | 3% | 97% | |
| 59 | 5% | 94% | |
| 60 | 8% | 88% | |
| 61 | 11% | 81% | |
| 62 | 12% | 70% | |
| 63 | 15% | 57% | Last Result |
| 64 | 13% | 42% | |
| 65 | 11% | 29% | Median |
| 66 | 8% | 18% | |
| 67 | 5% | 10% | |
| 68 | 3% | 5% | Majority |
| 69 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 57 | 3% | 98% | |
| 58 | 5% | 95% | |
| 59 | 8% | 91% | |
| 60 | 10% | 83% | |
| 61 | 13% | 73% | |
| 62 | 15% | 60% | Median |
| 63 | 14% | 45% | |
| 64 | 11% | 31% | |
| 65 | 8% | 20% | |
| 66 | 5% | 12% | |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 69 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98% | |
| 48 | 5% | 95% | |
| 49 | 6% | 91% | |
| 50 | 11% | 84% | |
| 51 | 13% | 74% | |
| 52 | 13% | 61% | Last Result |
| 53 | 13% | 48% | |
| 54 | 12% | 35% | Median |
| 55 | 11% | 23% | |
| 56 | 6% | 12% | |
| 57 | 4% | 6% | |
| 58 | 2% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): El Periódico
- Fieldwork period: 16–19 October 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.84%