Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 16–21 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 39.6% 24.6% 22.9–26.4% 22.4–26.9% 22.0–27.4% 21.2–28.3%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 17.9% 19.2% 17.7–20.9% 17.2–21.4% 16.9–21.8% 16.2–22.6%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 12.7% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.0% 11.1–15.3% 10.6–16.1%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 39.6% 12.1% 10.9–13.5% 10.5–13.9% 10.2–14.3% 9.6–15.0%
Catalunya en Comú 8.9% 11.4% 10.2–12.8% 9.9–13.2% 9.6–13.5% 9.0–14.2%
Partit Popular 8.5% 10.5% 9.3–11.8% 9.0–12.2% 8.7–12.6% 8.2–13.2%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 8.2% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 20 38 36–42 35–43 35–43 33–44
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25 26 24–29 24–30 24–30 22–31
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 16 16 15–20 15–20 14–21 14–22
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 29 18 16–21 15–21 15–21 14–23
Catalunya en Comú 11 14 12–17 12–17 11–17 11–18
Partit Popular 11 13 12–15 12–16 12–17 10–19
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 10 8 5–9 5–9 4–9 3–10

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.6% 99.7%  
34 1.1% 99.0%  
35 5% 98%  
36 7% 93%  
37 24% 86%  
38 20% 62% Median
39 12% 43%  
40 9% 30%  
41 10% 22%  
42 6% 12%  
43 5% 6%  
44 1.1% 1.3%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.8% 99.7%  
23 1.3% 98.9%  
24 10% 98%  
25 25% 87% Last Result
26 23% 62% Median
27 13% 40%  
28 11% 27%  
29 9% 16%  
30 6% 7%  
31 1.1% 1.5%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 3% 99.8%  
15 18% 97%  
16 33% 78% Last Result, Median
17 12% 45%  
18 17% 34%  
19 6% 17%  
20 7% 11%  
21 2% 4%  
22 1.4% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.5%  
15 7% 99.1%  
16 6% 92%  
17 36% 87%  
18 19% 51% Median
19 12% 32%  
20 8% 20%  
21 10% 12%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.9% 1.0%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 3% 99.8% Last Result
12 10% 97%  
13 10% 86%  
14 36% 76% Median
15 20% 41%  
16 10% 21%  
17 9% 11%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.9% 100%  
11 0.6% 99.1% Last Result
12 13% 98%  
13 38% 86% Median
14 32% 48%  
15 7% 16%  
16 6% 9%  
17 1.1% 3%  
18 0.8% 1.4%  
19 0.5% 0.6%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 1.1% 98%  
5 9% 96%  
6 8% 87%  
7 20% 79%  
8 48% 60% Median
9 11% 11%  
10 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular 63 71 94% 68–74 67–75 66–76 65–78
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Catalunya en Comú 60 71 91% 68–74 67–75 66–76 64–77
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 59 64 6% 61–67 60–68 59–69 57–70
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular 52 57 0% 54–60 53–61 53–62 51–64
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 49 56 0% 54–60 53–61 52–61 50–63

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0.2% 100%  
65 0.5% 99.8%  
66 2% 99.3%  
67 4% 97%  
68 8% 94% Majority
69 12% 86% Median
70 13% 74%  
71 14% 61%  
72 16% 46%  
73 15% 31%  
74 8% 16%  
75 5% 8%  
76 2% 4%  
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.5% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Catalunya en Comú

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.8%  
65 1.0% 99.4%  
66 3% 98%  
67 5% 96%  
68 9% 91% Majority
69 11% 82%  
70 16% 71% Median
71 16% 56%  
72 15% 40%  
73 11% 25%  
74 7% 13%  
75 3% 7%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.9% 1.2%  
78 0.3% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.8%  
58 1.0% 99.3%  
59 2% 98% Last Result
60 5% 96%  
61 8% 92%  
62 15% 84%  
63 16% 69%  
64 14% 54% Median
65 13% 39%  
66 12% 26%  
67 8% 14%  
68 4% 6% Majority
69 2% 3%  
70 0.5% 0.7%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.8%  
52 1.3% 99.4% Last Result
53 5% 98%  
54 10% 93%  
55 14% 83% Median
56 16% 70%  
57 16% 54%  
58 13% 37%  
59 11% 24%  
60 6% 14%  
61 4% 7%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.8% 1.4%  
64 0.3% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
50 0.4% 99.8%  
51 1.0% 99.4%  
52 3% 98%  
53 6% 96%  
54 13% 90%  
55 14% 77%  
56 15% 63% Median
57 13% 48%  
58 14% 35%  
59 10% 21%  
60 6% 11%  
61 3% 5%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.5% 0.7%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations