Opinion Poll by Sigma Dos for El Mundo, 23–26 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 39.6% 26.4% 24.7–28.2% 24.2–28.8% 23.8–29.2% 22.9–30.1%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 17.9% 19.6% 18.1–21.3% 17.6–21.8% 17.3–22.2% 16.5–23.0%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 12.7% 15.1% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.1% 13.0–17.5% 12.4–18.2%
Catalunya en Comú 8.9% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 39.6% 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.5% 8.1–11.8% 7.6–12.5%
Partit Popular 8.5% 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.3–10.3% 7.1–10.6% 6.6–11.2%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 8.2% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 20 41 38–44 37–44 37–45 35–47
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25 26 25–30 24–30 24–31 22–32
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 16 20 17–23 16–23 16–23 16–24
Catalunya en Comú 11 14 12–15 11–16 11–17 9–18
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 29 14 13–16 11–17 11–17 11–18
Partit Popular 11 12 10–13 9–13 9–13 8–14
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 10 8 7–9 7–10 5–10 5–10

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.9%  
36 1.2% 99.5%  
37 5% 98%  
38 10% 93%  
39 11% 83%  
40 11% 72%  
41 17% 62% Median
42 14% 45%  
43 18% 31%  
44 9% 14%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.6% 99.8%  
23 0.9% 99.3%  
24 6% 98%  
25 22% 92% Last Result
26 29% 70% Median
27 13% 42%  
28 12% 29%  
29 6% 17%  
30 8% 10%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.5% 0.7%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.5% 100%  
16 5% 99.5% Last Result
17 7% 95%  
18 12% 87%  
19 9% 75%  
20 22% 66% Median
21 12% 45%  
22 21% 33%  
23 9% 11%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.6% 100%  
10 0.6% 99.4%  
11 8% 98.8% Last Result
12 18% 91%  
13 13% 72%  
14 36% 60% Median
15 16% 24%  
16 4% 8%  
17 4% 5%  
18 0.5% 0.5%  
19 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 6% 99.8%  
12 3% 94%  
13 34% 90%  
14 14% 56% Median
15 26% 42%  
16 6% 16%  
17 9% 10%  
18 0.9% 1.1%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 1.0% 99.8%  
9 5% 98.8%  
10 31% 94%  
11 9% 63% Last Result
12 35% 53% Median
13 16% 18%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.3% 99.8%  
5 2% 99.5%  
6 2% 97%  
7 7% 95%  
8 51% 88% Median
9 32% 37%  
10 5% 5% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular 63 71 96% 69–75 68–76 67–77 65–78
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 60 69 69% 65–72 64–73 64–73 63–75
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 59 64 4% 60–66 59–67 58–68 57–70
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular 52 58 0% 55–61 54–62 53–63 52–64
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 49 55 0% 52–58 51–59 50–60 49–61

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.8%  
66 1.2% 99.4%  
67 3% 98%  
68 5% 96% Majority
69 9% 91%  
70 15% 81%  
71 16% 66%  
72 14% 50% Median
73 12% 36%  
74 10% 23%  
75 7% 14%  
76 4% 7%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.7% 0.9%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 1.1% 99.5%  
64 4% 98%  
65 6% 95%  
66 9% 89%  
67 11% 80%  
68 13% 69% Majority
69 15% 55% Median
70 15% 40%  
71 13% 25%  
72 6% 12%  
73 3% 6%  
74 1.5% 2%  
75 0.6% 0.9%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.7% 99.8%  
58 2% 99.1%  
59 4% 97% Last Result
60 7% 93%  
61 10% 86%  
62 12% 77%  
63 14% 64% Median
64 16% 50%  
65 15% 34%  
66 9% 19%  
67 5% 9%  
68 3% 4% Majority
69 1.2% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.6%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.7% 99.7% Last Result
53 2% 98.9%  
54 4% 97%  
55 8% 93%  
56 14% 85%  
57 15% 71%  
58 15% 57% Median
59 13% 42%  
60 11% 29%  
61 8% 17%  
62 5% 9%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.8% 1.2%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.6% 99.7% Last Result
50 2% 99.1%  
51 4% 97%  
52 8% 92%  
53 10% 85%  
54 13% 75%  
55 14% 62% Median
56 18% 47%  
57 14% 29%  
58 8% 15%  
59 4% 8%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.9% 1.3%  
62 0.3% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations