Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 27–31 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 39.6% 31.2% 29.4–33.1% 28.8–33.7% 28.4–34.1% 27.5–35.1%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 17.9% 18.3% 16.8–20.0% 16.4–20.4% 16.0–20.8% 15.3–21.6%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 12.7% 12.2% 11.0–13.6% 10.6–14.0% 10.3–14.4% 9.7–15.1%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 39.6% 10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.6–11.8% 8.4–12.1% 7.9–12.8%
Catalunya en Comú 8.9% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Partit Popular 8.5% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 8.2% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.3% 4.1–7.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 20 49 45–51 45–52 44–53 43–55
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25 25 23–27 22–28 21–29 20–30
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 16 16 14–17 14–18 14–19 12–20
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 29 14 13–17 12–17 11–18 11–18
Catalunya en Comú 11 12 10–14 9–15 9–15 9–16
Partit Popular 11 12 10–13 10–14 10–14 8–15
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 10 8 5–9 5–9 4–9 3–10

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.7% 99.8%  
44 3% 99.1%  
45 6% 96%  
46 9% 90%  
47 10% 81%  
48 15% 71%  
49 16% 57% Median
50 18% 40%  
51 13% 22%  
52 5% 9%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.9% 2%  
55 0.5% 0.8%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.8% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.1%  
22 4% 97%  
23 7% 92%  
24 15% 85%  
25 32% 70% Last Result, Median
26 25% 38%  
27 8% 13%  
28 3% 5%  
29 1.4% 3%  
30 0.9% 1.1%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.7% 99.9%  
13 1.2% 99.3%  
14 14% 98%  
15 34% 85%  
16 34% 50% Last Result, Median
17 11% 17%  
18 3% 5%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.7% 1.1%  
21 0.2% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 3% 99.9%  
12 4% 97%  
13 23% 94%  
14 25% 71% Median
15 20% 45%  
16 12% 25%  
17 10% 13%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 6% 99.6%  
10 7% 94%  
11 21% 87% Last Result
12 36% 66% Median
13 11% 30%  
14 13% 18%  
15 5% 6%  
16 0.5% 0.9%  
17 0.4% 0.4%  
18 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.8% 100%  
9 2% 99.2%  
10 20% 98%  
11 14% 77% Last Result
12 31% 64% Median
13 26% 32%  
14 6% 6%  
15 0.4% 0.5%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 3% 98%  
5 10% 95%  
6 9% 85%  
7 10% 76%  
8 49% 66% Median
9 16% 17%  
10 1.0% 1.0% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Catalunya en Comú 60 75 100% 72–78 72–79 71–80 70–81
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 59 71 92% 68–73 67–74 66–75 64–76
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular 63 64 8% 62–67 61–68 60–69 59–71
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 49 63 3% 60–66 59–67 59–68 57–69
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular 52 52 0% 50–55 49–56 48–57 47–58

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Catalunya en Comú

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 100% Majority
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 1.3% 99.5%  
71 3% 98%  
72 6% 95%  
73 12% 90%  
74 15% 77%  
75 17% 62% Median
76 17% 46%  
77 13% 28%  
78 8% 15%  
79 4% 7%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.7% 1.1%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100% Last Result
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.8%  
65 0.9% 99.5%  
66 2% 98.6%  
67 5% 96%  
68 9% 92% Majority
69 14% 83%  
70 17% 69%  
71 17% 52% Median
72 16% 35%  
73 10% 20%  
74 5% 9%  
75 2% 4%  
76 0.9% 1.4%  
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 0.9% 99.5%  
60 2% 98.6%  
61 5% 96%  
62 10% 91%  
63 16% 80% Last Result
64 17% 65%  
65 17% 48% Median
66 14% 31%  
67 9% 17%  
68 5% 8% Majority
69 2% 4%  
70 0.9% 1.4%  
71 0.4% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.8%  
58 1.3% 99.3%  
59 4% 98%  
60 6% 94%  
61 11% 89%  
62 15% 78%  
63 18% 63% Median
64 17% 45%  
65 12% 28%  
66 8% 15%  
67 4% 7%  
68 2% 3% Majority
69 0.9% 1.4%  
70 0.3% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.7% 99.7%  
48 2% 99.0%  
49 4% 97%  
50 10% 93%  
51 16% 83%  
52 18% 66% Last Result
53 19% 48% Median
54 16% 29%  
55 7% 14%  
56 4% 6%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.6% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations