Opinion Poll by GAD3 for La Vanguardia, 30 October–3 November 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 29.3% | 27.5–31.2% | 27.0–31.8% | 26.6–32.2% | 25.7–33.2% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 20.6% | 19.1–22.3% | 18.6–22.8% | 18.2–23.2% | 17.5–24.1% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 14.6% | 13.3–16.1% | 12.9–16.6% | 12.6–16.9% | 11.9–17.7% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 39.6% | 10.4% | 9.3–11.8% | 8.9–12.1% | 8.7–12.5% | 8.1–13.1% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.4–10.3% | 7.1–10.6% | 6.6–11.2% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.3–9.5% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.8–10.2% | 6.3–10.8% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 45 | 42–48 | 41–49 | 40–50 | 39–51 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 27 | 25–30 | 25–31 | 25–32 | 23–33 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 19 | 16–22 | 16–22 | 16–23 | 15–23 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 29 | 15 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 11–19 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 11 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 6–13 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 4–10 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 41 | 3% | 97% | |
| 42 | 6% | 95% | |
| 43 | 10% | 88% | |
| 44 | 19% | 78% | |
| 45 | 17% | 59% | Median |
| 46 | 18% | 42% | |
| 47 | 8% | 24% | |
| 48 | 7% | 16% | |
| 49 | 5% | 9% | |
| 50 | 3% | 4% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 25 | 9% | 98% | Last Result |
| 26 | 23% | 89% | |
| 27 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 28 | 15% | 48% | |
| 29 | 11% | 33% | |
| 30 | 12% | 22% | |
| 31 | 7% | 10% | |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 15% | 98% | Last Result |
| 17 | 16% | 84% | |
| 18 | 12% | 68% | |
| 19 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 20 | 16% | 38% | |
| 21 | 7% | 22% | |
| 22 | 10% | 15% | |
| 23 | 4% | 5% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 3% | 98% | |
| 13 | 20% | 95% | |
| 14 | 17% | 75% | |
| 15 | 26% | 58% | Median |
| 16 | 9% | 32% | |
| 17 | 19% | 23% | |
| 18 | 3% | 4% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 5% | 98% | |
| 10 | 35% | 93% | |
| 11 | 16% | 58% | Last Result, Median |
| 12 | 26% | 43% | |
| 13 | 14% | 16% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 8 | 25% | 96% | |
| 9 | 42% | 71% | Median |
| 10 | 8% | 29% | |
| 11 | 16% | 21% | Last Result |
| 12 | 4% | 5% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 6 | 3% | 97% | |
| 7 | 8% | 94% | |
| 8 | 50% | 86% | Median |
| 9 | 31% | 36% | |
| 10 | 4% | 4% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Catalunya en Comú | 60 | 69 | 76% | 66–72 | 65–73 | 64–74 | 63–75 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 68 | 62% | 65–71 | 64–72 | 63–73 | 62–74 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Catalunya en Comú | 63 | 67 | 38% | 64–70 | 63–71 | 62–72 | 61–73 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 49 | 60 | 0.1% | 57–63 | 56–64 | 55–65 | 54–66 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 52 | 58 | 0% | 54–61 | 53–62 | 53–63 | 52–64 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 65 | 4% | 96% | |
| 66 | 7% | 93% | |
| 67 | 10% | 86% | |
| 68 | 13% | 76% | Majority |
| 69 | 17% | 63% | Median |
| 70 | 18% | 46% | |
| 71 | 12% | 28% | |
| 72 | 7% | 17% | |
| 73 | 4% | 9% | |
| 74 | 3% | 5% | |
| 75 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 64 | 4% | 96% | |
| 65 | 7% | 92% | |
| 66 | 10% | 85% | |
| 67 | 13% | 75% | |
| 68 | 15% | 62% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 18% | 47% | |
| 70 | 14% | 29% | |
| 71 | 7% | 16% | |
| 72 | 5% | 8% | |
| 73 | 2% | 4% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 63 | 5% | 96% | Last Result |
| 64 | 7% | 92% | |
| 65 | 14% | 84% | |
| 66 | 18% | 71% | Median |
| 67 | 15% | 53% | |
| 68 | 13% | 38% | Majority |
| 69 | 10% | 25% | |
| 70 | 7% | 15% | |
| 71 | 4% | 8% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 56 | 4% | 96% | |
| 57 | 8% | 92% | |
| 58 | 11% | 84% | |
| 59 | 14% | 73% | |
| 60 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 61 | 19% | 44% | |
| 62 | 11% | 25% | |
| 63 | 7% | 14% | |
| 64 | 4% | 7% | |
| 65 | 2% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 2% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 53 | 3% | 98% | |
| 54 | 5% | 95% | |
| 55 | 8% | 90% | |
| 56 | 14% | 82% | |
| 57 | 18% | 68% | Median |
| 58 | 16% | 50% | |
| 59 | 12% | 34% | |
| 60 | 9% | 22% | |
| 61 | 6% | 13% | |
| 62 | 4% | 7% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GAD3
- Commissioner(s): La Vanguardia
- Fieldwork period: 30 October–3 November 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 999
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.72%